TX-07: Is This For Real?

Something is going on in the Houstin area that is making local and national Democrats take notice. Michael Skelly, Democratic candidate for the 7th Congressional District is seeking the seat once held by George H.W. Bush, according to the

Politico.

Democrats have been increasingly bullish about their ability to win over suburban, ancestrally Republican House districts that have been trending in their party’s direction over the past decade.

But their party’s latest target shows just how confident Democrats have become. Democrats are eyeing one of the most reliably Republican seats in the heart of Texas — Rep. John Culberson’s suburban Houston district, once held by President Bush’s father — and have a candidate who is causing a stir due to his prolific fundraising.

Businessman Michael Skelly is positioned to be at the top of the Democratic fundraising list for the year’s first quarter, according to a Democratic operative, raising about $750,000 from individual donors without even tapping into his substantial personal wealth. Another Democratic operative said it could be the “best first quarter ever” for any House Democrat in his first filing period.

Currently, the seat is rated “Safe Republican” by Congressional Quarterly, but we have a candidate who is taking the race seriously, and perhaps so should we.

NJ-02: Van Drew Won’t Challenge LoBiondo

Earlier in the cycle, Democrats had hoped to target three House Republican incumbents in New Jersey: NJ-07’s Mike Ferguson, NJ-03’s Jim Saxton, and NJ-02’s Frank LoBiondo.  With the retirements of Ferguson and Saxton, Democrats have a solid shot of picking up both seats with the candidacies of Linda Stender and John Adler.  For a while, it looked possible that state Senator Jeff Van Drew would round out the trio by challenging the entrenched LoBiondo in his D+4 district.  Alas, that wasn’t meant to be:

State Sen. Jeff Van Drew won’t challenge incumbent Frank LoBiondo for a congressional seat in November, Van Drew said this afternoon.

Van Drew was elected to the Senate in November after serving three terms in the state Assembly. […]

“We are approaching the most complex and challenging budget in the state’s history and for that reason, I’m going to stay where I am for now, although I will clearly say I look forward to the day when I will run for the United States Congress,” Van Drew said in a telephone interview this afternoon.

Van Drew said it’s possible he could challenge LoBiondo in 2010.

This is the safer move for Van Drew — fresh from beating an incumbent GOP state Senator last November, another bid against an incumbent so soon after his last race might have rubbed some voters the wrong way.  However, it does look promising that Van Drew will be willing to make a real race of this seat in 2010.  I look forward to his candidacy.

Meanwhile, the promising campaign of Rabbi Dennis Shulman against NJ-05’s ultra-conservative Scott Garrett leaves me hopeful that we could see three pick-up opportunities in the Garden State, after all.

Tom Perriello for a Obamajority

Last Monday I launched the Obamajority to give Barack Obama a strong progressive Congress that will enact his bold agenda. I started it out with three canidates, Rick Noriega, Darcy Burner and Patrick Murphy. I also asked for suggestions for who to endorse next.

The canidate that received the most support by far was Tom Perriello. I had already heard about his impressive run for Congress and so I am exited to announce that Tom is the latest canidate to be added to the Obamajority. So go and give him some change for change. In this essay I take a look at Tom and his campaign to bring much needed leadership to Virgina’s 5th Congressional District.

First let’s take a look at the current representative for the Virgina’s 5th Congressional District. His name is Virgil Goode, Jr. I’ve known about Goode for a little bit over a year because he is a national prominent bigot. On December 7th Goode sent this letter out to a constituent. Take a look at that bigotry.

You see that “Muslim Representative from Minnesota” is Keith Ellison the great representative elected to my neighboring district. That is a perfect example of the hate and fear that is too powerful today. Many times people have attempted to defeat Goode but again and again they have lost. But this time we have a chance to change that.

Why? Because we have a great canidate running. Tom Perriello. Tom was called to serve at a early age.

After receiving his law degree from Yale University, Tom accepted an assignment working to end atrocities in the West African countries of Liberia and Sierra Leone, which had suffered long civil wars fueled by blood diamonds. Tom’s work with child soldiers, amputees, and local pro-democracy groups in Sierra Leone played a significant role in the peace and reconciliation process that ended twelve years of violence in that country.

Tom then became Special Advisor and spokesperson for the International Prosecutor during the showdown that forced Liberian dictator Charles Taylor from power without firing a shot. After this success, Tom served as a national security analyst for the Century Foundation. He has worked inside Darfur and twice in Afghanistan.

Since 2004 he has been a leader in building a faith-based movement dedicated to working toward the common good instead of spewing hate.

Since 2004, Tom has helped to launch a political and social movement in this country that is credited with shifting the national debate about America’s moral priorities. He helped found FaithfulAmerica.org and Catholics in Alliance for the Common Good, which bring together faith communities to fight for children’s health care, supporting a higher minimum wage, environmental stewardship, and responsible solutions in Iraq. Inspired by the prophetic vision of Dr. King, Wilberforce, and Micah, Tom believes that America must reverse the erosion of our commitment to the common good and restore our understanding that our nation rises or falls together.

Tom also helped found Avaaz.org a great group that I am a part of. It tackles some of the toughest issues of our day by working with it’s millions of members from every country in the world.

Tom sat down for a great interview with Lowell of the great Virgina blog Raising Kaine. In it he explains why he is running, how he thinks he can win, his strengths and passions. Let’s look at some highlights from that interview.

First of all the big question. Why? Why run for Congress?

Like so many in my generation, I felt called from an early age to devote my life to community service, because it felt so much more real than trying to change things through government. For over a decade, I have felt inspired to work on economic fairness in our communities and on ending atrocities from inside Darfur and Sierra Leone.  

But I could only work in a broken system for so long before I began to understand how important it was to fix the system itself. In Darfur and West Africa, I saw how much of a difference a single Congressperson could make if s/he were willing to speak out and hold the Administration and State Department accountable. And the last few elections have made it clear how important it is for Democrats to reclaim the values debate and restore America’s commitment to justice and the common good.

I believe we stand at a unique point in history. Our challenges are large enough that our only pragmatism is the idealism to think big and expand our sense of what’s possible. I am running because I believe that politics should be seen as community service by other means. It can, and should, be a place to make people’s lives better.  

And how will he win in this traditionally Republican district?

We are going to win because we have a stronger movement on our side and better ideas for how to secure our country, our jobs, and our environment. Beating Rep. Goode will not be easy, but all the pieces are coming together:

1) Energy and Resources – We tripled Rep. Goode in fourth quarter fundraising, and raised more money inside Virginia in four months than he did all year. When we are outpacing an incumbent from the Appropriations Committee, you know that people are hungry for a new generation of leadership. Also the DCCC has put our race “in play,” and if we hit our fundraising target this quarter, we will move into the top tier of their targeted races.  

2) Grassroots – Our campaign has already logged over 1300 volunteer hours, and we are working hard to build the largest and most sophisticated grassroots network this district has ever seen. We are investing heavily in field, already have offices in Franklin County and Charlottesville, and will have an office in Danville by the end of this quarter. In a district the size of New Jersey, this race will be won on the ground.

3) Blue-mentum – Like much of America, our district is a swing district that is now trending blue. The wildly popular Mark Warner is on the ticket, Gov. Kaine is tirelessly devoted to building the party, and Obama just got more primary votes in the Fifth than all the Republicans combined. Meanwhile, Rep. Goode has gone from being a populist maverick to marching lockstep with President Bush and out of step with our independent district.  

As for being a “faith-based progressive,” I can tell you that voters respond to authenticity. My faith is a big part of who I am and why I’ve dedicated my life to justice, and most voters just want to know what I am all about. It also provides a common experience and language that resonates with voters in my district, especially in areas where Democrats have struggled in the past.    

And finally his answer on one of the most pressing issues of our day. Climate change.  

We need to commit to independence from fossil fuels within a generation, and that will require major investments, a substantial shift in incentives, and a culture change as consumers. A revenue-neutral tax shift is one way to do this, but so are cap-and-trade systems that have worked to address problems such as acid rain.  

As for the target, I most often hear from experts that we must draw the line at no more than a 2-degree Celsius temperature increase. Our goal must be set not by what seems politically possible but what will actually produce the end result we need.  

That brings me to a excellent series that Tom wrote for TPMCafe’s Table for One. You can read it all here (under latest posts) but I want to focus on what I think is the most important one. It is entitled “Conviction Politics… in Practice.” In it Tom breaks from the notion that only DLC-poll driven campaigns can win. Instead he shows that conviction politics both makes it more likely for him to be elected and will also make him more effective if he is elected. I strongly recomend you read it all but here is part of it.

While some strategists focus on positioning candidates on issue after issue, I believe most voters focus more on whether the candidate integrity and character on the whole, demonstrated by the conviction to take a stand. These lines from Toby Keith probably strike pretty close to how many people, including me, feel about this:

“I’m a man of my convictions. Call me wrong. Call me right.

But I bring my better angels, to every fight.

You may not like where I’m going. But you sure know where I stand.

Hate me if you want to, love me if you can.”

For the rest of the week, I will be talking about my struggle to apply these simple principles to the issues of the day (Iraq War, culture war) and my experience putting conviction politics into practice. The successes of conviction candidates in 2006 inspired me to run for Congress. I am still very early in the process, but am hopeful that this campaign will be part of building on those lessons for a better democracy.

The more I learn about Tom the more exited I am about this campaign. I hope you will take the time to read his great interview with Raising Kaine, teacherken’s excellent case for him and Tom’s postings on TPM. Hopefully then you will be as exited by Tom’s campaign as I am.

Electing Barack Obama isn’t enough to bring real change. We will also need to send a strong message to Congress that more of the same won’t cut it. Electing someone like Tom would do just that. Tom wouldn’t just be another vote. He would be someone who lead by example. He will use his power as 1 of 435 to do good in the world not get sweet deals from lobbyists. He will lead by conviction and indeed he already is leading. He helped develop the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq and appeared in this video promoting it:

If you want that kind of leadership. If you want to send a strong message that conviction politics is the right kind of politics then consider making a donation to Tom via the Obamajority page. Tom has set a goal of raising $500,000 in this quarter and he is very close to reaching that. If he does this will become a top-tier race nationally. He is running a grassroots campaign and we have a good shot at replacing one of the worst congressmen with one of the best. Right now is a critical time in the campaign though so donate and together we can bring about some real change. But only it you help make it.

Donate to Tom Perriello and together we will build a Obamajority.

We need to restore the founding American ethic that we are better off when we are in this together. Since the original thirteen colonies joined together as the United States, through Civil War and the Great Depression, we have risen or fallen according to this simple rule: America thrives when we are united in a common purpose for the common good.- Tom Perriello

P.S. We are always open to adding new canidates. Keep the suggestions coming to obamathon (AT) gmail (DOT) com. Thanks!

PA-05: McCracken for Congress Update – Barack Obama to PSU

It’s been a very busy week for the campaign with many highlights:

Monday March 24: I attended the Voices of Central PA dinner in State College.  It was a very nice event and I got the chance to speak with the truly progressive minded people who support Voices.  The questions were tough but fair and I really enjoyed the Indian food on the buffet at the India Pavilion restaurant where the event was held.  The food was a little on the spicy side but was very good.

Tuesday March 25: I spent the late afternoon and evening getting signs out to people.  You always get the chance to speak with your supporters while delivering signs and the feedback was good.  I did get home in time to catch American Idol with Kelly and Amanda.  Not as important as the Obama / Clinton race but Kelly, Amanda and I seem to be pulling for David Cook and Brooke White.

Wednesday March 26: All 12 candidates were on hand for the candidate forum sponsored by the DuBois Chamber of Commerce.  Getting the chance to hear the other 11 candidates, I feel very confident of the message our campaign is spreading.  We recognize the problems of 2008 and we are offering solutions for 2008 and beyond.



Sadly, many of the other candidates keep offering solutions from the 1980’s.  Perhaps most troublesome from several of the candidates are calls for the return to and expansion of the use of fossil fuels.  I will continue to stress throughout this campaign as long as I am part of it that we MUST invest in cleaner, domestically produced alternative fuels.  It will help our economy and our national security.

Thursday March 27: First, I was interviewed on C-Net, the local cable channel in State College.  The interview will run in the State College cable market several times before the April 22nd election.  Then, at the invite of Raymond Snyder, I traveled to Lewistown for the appearance of former President Bill Clinton.  Prior to the public being admitted to the Lewistown High School gymnasium, I had the opportunity to walk the line waiting to get into the event.  I shook hands with approximately 1,500 people who were waiting to get in.  Perhaps the most interesting story was about halfway through the line I met a lady and her young son.  He asked for my autograph, the first time this ever happened.  As I was signing, I saw the young boy reach over and tug his mothers coat and ask “Is that President Clinton?”.

We did have to wait quite awhile in the gym as President Clinton was behind schedule.  When he did arrive after 6:30 he didn’t disappoint.  He gave a rousing speech that lasted approximately 50 minutes and he actually made mention of ethanol as a viable alternative fuel source and even said that ethanol from cellulose material is the way to go in the future.  Then, as he left the stage, he worked his way around the barrier between the stage and the crowd and I was able to shake his hand.  I was 3 rows back but I reached up over the 2 rows ahead of me and got the handshake.

Friday March 28: I attended the opening of the Obama campaign office in DuBois.  I am so encouraged that a presidential campaign has opened an office in Clearfield County.  This is proof that rural Pennsylvania is going to have our say in this election.  I met several people at the opening and they are truly committed to making a difference in 2008.

Saturday March 29: I hosted a visit to the Clearfield area by John Cordisco candidate for State Treasurer.  I first met John last August at Rep. Bud George’s picnic and I was very impressed with him.  One thing that made me interested in him was that he also started his political career by serving on a school board.  I invited John and his staff person to join me at Denny’s Pub, famous as the home of the biggest hamburger in the world.  



He had a nice interview with Jane Elling from our local newspaper and then we all enjoyed one of Denny’s famous burgers.  Not the big one, just one of the regular sized burgers available on the menu.  John was very interested in the alternative fuels industry that we’ve brought to Clearfield County and north central Pennsylvania.  We also talked about state funding and investment issues and his vision to be an active and involved state treasurer.  He is a great candidate and I feel he will make an excellent treasurer for Pennsylvania.

Sunday March 30: Although I was not able to personally attend due to a Commissioners’ Conference, our campaign attended the Obama Rally for Change Event on the campus of Pennsylvania State University.  We had a chance to talk with a lot of young eager minds ready for change in Washington.  Although the gates opened at 11:30am, it was brought to our attention that students and interested citizens started lining up at 5:30am and even earlier.  This is the kind of dedication we need from our young people and from the citizens of the 5th District.  Although the lines were long and the wind brisk, the message of change kept the spectators lively.



Obama’s message of change and a new direction is precisely what the 5th District is looking for.  He pointed out that it is time to move beyond our differences and come together to forge a better future for all Americans.  He addressed the massive amounts of money we send overseas to fight this war and the rising costs of gas.  His solutions, and ours, is to invest in alternative fuel sources like ethanol.  We are proud to join Barack Obama in this fight.

In our seating location, we were honored to meet up with the great candidate for the 171st State House seat Tim Wilson.  Many state officials were also there including Senator Casey and State Rep. Dan Surra.  We thanked them for the warm welcome.  Luckily for us, we had a great seating location!  We were also informed that this rally was the largest in the history of Penn State and we were honored to attend.

It’s been a busy week and every day between now and April 22nd has something on the schedule.  Please keep spreading the word about the campaign and let us know what you are hearing.

Also, we expect to release some important campaign news on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

————————

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

The PVI-Voting Pattern Index

(Phenomenal work. Promoted from the diaries with an edit to the title by DavidNYC.)

Lots of people in the blogosphere want to primary Bad Dems. Used wisely, that’s a good thing. It can wake up a Blue Dog on cruise control in a dark blue district (Jane Harman); sometimes, it can even lead to a victory and a Better Dem (Donna Edwards).

Unfortunately, I’ve never seen any sort of metric that helps us decide who’s a worthwhile primary target, i.e. who’s way out of whack with his or her district, versus someone who’s an odious Blue Dog but who’s the best we can manage in a red district and someone to be welcomed into the big tent (if sometimes secretly grumbled about). So, here’s my stab at it.

It’s based on this proposition: the representative in the most liberal district should have the most liberal voting record. The representative in the most conservative district should have the most conservative voting record. The representative in the 217th most liberal district should have the 217th most liberal voting record. And so on. Of course, in reality, it doesn’t always work like that. But finding the representatives whose voting records are severely mismatched with their districts’ lean helps us find the Bad Dems who need some prodding. And as a bonus, it also helps us find the Republicans who should theoretically be extra vulnerable in a general election: the wingnuts hiding in moderate districts.

To that end, I’ve developed the PVI-Voting Pattern Index. It simply rates every district from most Democratic to most Republican in its presidential preference, and rates every representative from most liberal to most conservative, and looks at the differentials.

Let’s start with the Dems who are underperforming their districts: in other words, the ones with super-safe districts who are voting in the middle of the pack, or ones with bluish districts who are voting conservatively.

Rep. District PVI PVI rank PP NJ Liberal rank Difference
A. Davis AL-07 D+17 62 91.77 61.3 179 -117
Meek FL-17 D+35 10 94.76 76.5 117 -107
Rangel NY-15 D+43 2 94.85 80.3 105 -103
Jefferson LA-02 D+28 26 95.14 73 121 -95
E.B. Johnson TX-30 D+26 29 93.97 77.7 123 -94
Fattah PA-02 D+39 4 94.95 82.2 96 -92
Lipinski IL-03 D+10 102 90.93 54.7 191 -89
S.T. Jones OH-11 D+33 16 95.28 79 104 -88
Doyle PA-14 D+22 39 94.58 75.2 125 -86
C. Brown FL-03 D+16 64 94.39 67.7 142 -78
R. Brady PA-01 D+36 8 95.35 84 83.5 -75.5
Rush IL-01 D+35 11 95.61 82.8 86.5 -75.5
Meeks NY-06 D+38 6 96.24 83.3 76 -70
Engel NY-17 D+21 44 93.12 83.3 111 -67
Lynch MA-09 D+15 68 94.07 72.3 135 -67
G. Green TX-29 D+8 124 91.21 56.5 189 -65
Towns NY-10 D+41 3 96.37 84.2 67 -64
T. Ryan OH-17 D+14 73 94.36 70.3 136 -63
M. Udall CO-02 D+8 121 90.94 60.2 184 -63
Serrano NY-16 D+43 1 97.54 78 63 -62
J. Cooper TN-05 D+6 139 85.7 54.7 200 -61
Berkley NV-01 D+9 115 92.01 61.8 173 -58
P. Stark CA-13 D+22 40 96.24 75.2 98 -58
Reyes TX-16 D+9 111 92.54 61.8 166.5 -55.5
Sires NJ-13 D+23 37 95.67 80.3 92 -55
Cummings MD-07 D+25 32 96.51 77.5 86.5 -54.5
Maloney NY-14 D+26 31 96.06 80 85 -54
Capuano MA-08 D+33 20 97.16 79.2 73.5 -53.5
Emanuel IL-05 D+18 57 95.96 72.3 110 -53
Barrow GA-12 D+2 178 68.22 45.8 228.5 -50.5

Frankly, I was surprised to see so many members of the Congressional Black Caucus on the list, especially since most of the ones on the list have pretty progressive records (although it certainly does shine the spotlight on the ones with more centrist records, like Artur Davis and Kendrick Meek… those two, plus Greg Meeks, are the only members of both the CBC and the New Democrat Caucus). The formula is pretty unforgiving, and it can be hard to live up to having one of the most Democratic leaning seats in the nation.

It may be more interesting to focus on people who have the less safe seats, but not so dangerous as to justify sketchier voting records. Mr. Lipinski you’re all familiar with, but this list also points, for instance, to Jim Cooper, a Blue Dog in a D+6 seat based in Nashville, or John Barrow, the second most conservative Democrat in the House, who sits in a D+2 seat.

Now, let’s turn to the good news: the Democrats who are vastly overperforming their districts. These are a mix of Blue Dogs holding down the fort in some of the nation’s most conservative districts, and flat-out progressives based in light-blue or swing districts.

Rep. District PVI PVI rank PP NJ Liberal rank Difference
C. Edwards TX-17 R+18 406 89.55 53.7 196 210
Pomeroy ND-AL R+13 360 90.61 61.3 183 177
Matheson UT-02 R+17 397 77.65 49.2 220 177
G. Taylor MS-04 R+16 393 73.46 46.3 225.5 167.5
Lampson TX-22 R+15 380 71.24 47 227 153
Skelton MO-04 R+11 339 89.50 54.3 195 144
Hinchey NY-22 D+6 142 98.02 92.5 12 130
Herseth SD-AL R+11 328 86.43 53.7 204.5 123.5
Price NC-04 D+6 141 97.42 90.7 24 117
Boucher VA-09 R+7 297 91.91 58.3 181.5 115.5
Spratt SC-05 R+6 279 91.54 63.7 170.5 108.5
Capps CA-23 D+9 112 98.29 94 6.5 105.5
Chandler KY-06 R+7 294 90.48 55.3 193 101
Filner CA-51 D+7 132 97.23 91.5 32 100
Holt NJ-12 D+8 128 97.42 89.7 28 100
Boyda KS-02 R+7 301 85.66 53.8 204.5 96.5
Holden PA-17 R+7 293 89.75 53.2 197 96
Mollohan WV-01 R+6 281 92.00 56.7 185 96
Shea-Porter NH-01 D+0 197 95.39 78.5 102.5 94.5
Grijalva AZ-07 D+10 107 98.53 89.2 15 92

Now, let’s look at the Republicans. A low OWI score shows which GOP representatives are, as it were, overperforming their lean of their districts, by being hardcore dead-enders in districts that should elect moderates, or better yet, Democrats.

Rep. District PVI PVI rank PP NJ Liberal rank Difference
Kline MN-02 R+3 228 2.11 9.3 400 -172
Feeney FL-24 R+3 236 2.18 12 396 -160
Chabot OH-01 R+1 201 5.25 17.5 353 -152
Mica FL-07 R+4 248 3.2 8.3 394 -146
Bachmann MN-06 R+5 266 1.48 10.8 405 -139
P. Ryan WI-01 R+2 218 3.97 20.3 352 -134
Garrett NJ-05 R+4 253 3.10 14.7 383 -130
Shadegg AZ-03 R+6 284 2.23 6.7 409 -125
Walberg MI-07 R+2 226 3.80 20.7 350 -124
Roskam IL-06 R+3 232 5.05 16.8 355 -123
Putnam FL-12 R+5 274 2.62 12.3 390 -116
Franks AZ-02 R+9 315 0.74 6.7 421 -106
S. King IA-05 R+8 311 1.12 8.8 414 -103
Gallegly CA-24 R+5 260 6.19 14 360 -100
Tiberi OH-12 R+1 205 8.12 25.3 304 -99
Fossella NY-13 D+1 186 11.51 29.7 285 -99
H. Wilson NM-01 D+2 173 19.26 31.7 272 -99
P. King NY-03 D+2 179 18.78 27.8 277 -98
M. Rogers MI-08 R+2 216 6.53 22.2 314 -98
Latham IA-04 D+0 190 13.10 26 287 -97

It’s heartening to see that a lot of these guys are already being targeted by the DCCC this cycle (Feeney, Chabot, Bachmann, Walberg, Shadegg). Also, I see more names that are on the “Races to Watch” lists of a lot of people here (Kline, Garrett).

Finally, let’s look at the Republicans who are more moderate than their districts would predict. There isn’t that much we can do with this list, other than thank them (or sit back and watch as the Club for Growth primaries them, as we saw with Wayne Gilchrest this year), so I’m just holding it to 10 names. It’s an interesting mix of representatives from red districts who’ve turned against the war, and very conservative representatives from super-red districts who just aren’t as crazy as the voters in their districts.

Rep. District PVI PVI rank PP NJ Liberal rank Difference
W. Jones NC-03 R+15 383 27.48 42 236 147
Simpson ID-02 R+19 408 18.92 33.2 270 138
J. Moran KS-01 R+20 413 12.69 34.7 275.5 137.5
Paul TX-14 R+14 379 16.72 39.8 259 120
Platts PA-19 R+12 357 21.76 38.5 251 106
Gilchrest MD-01 R+10 327 39.71 48.3 224 103
D. Young AK-AL R+14 368 16.05 35.8 270 98
Coble NC-06 R+17 403 5.61 27.8 305 98
Aderholt AL-04 R+16 387 10.20 26.8 290 97
Emerson MO-08 R+11 342 22.80 39.8 245.5 96.5

Some of the more observant of you might be wondering about how there’s one name missing… the name that’s come to signify that Bad Dems can, in fact, be beaten? Some of the others of you might be wondering who are the representatives who exactly match their districts, with almost no difference between their record and the district’s lean? Well, the answer to both of those questions is: Al Wynn. Somewhat surprisingly, for his 2007 voting record, he was right on the mark. MD-04, at D+30, is the 23rd most Democratic district. He had a Progressive Punch score of 97.14 and a National Journal score of 95, making him the 22nd most liberal representative. That’s a differential of 1.

So what does that mean? Did we target the wrong man? Nope… turns out, savvy politician that he is, he veered sharply to the left in 2007, worried by his previous narrow primary victory and anticipating the rematch. Here’s a chart that illustrates the U-turn: Progressive Punch also puts together lifetime scores, so I compared those against district lean too. Observe how most of the Lifetime Bad Dems are the same as the 2007 Bad Dems, but check out who’s #2 on the list:

Rep. District PVI PVI rank Lifetime PP Liberal rank Difference
Doyle PA-14 D+22 42 76.23 200 -158
Wynn MD-04 D+30 24 86.23 142 -118
Jefferson LA-02 D+28 27 86.54 140 -113
A. Davis AL-07 D+17 65 82.49 172 -107
Crowley NY-07 D+28 28 87.72 134 -106
Meek FL-17 D+35 10 88.70 116 -106
R. Andrews NJ-01 D+14 77 80.69 182 -105
R. Brady PA-01 D+36 8 89.25 108.5 -100.5
J. Moran VA-08 D+14 81 81.40 178 -97
Meeks NY-06 D+38 6 89.56 100 -94

Now, Wynn’s turnaround of 10.91, from a lifetime score of 86.23 to a 2007 score of 97.14, wasn’t the biggest gain of any Democrat… not by a long shot. The biggest jumps, perhaps unsurprisingly, were among the Blue Dogs, who had lower scores to begin with, and an opportunity to make up more ground by voting with the new Democratic majority. The biggest jump belonged to Ike Skelton, who went from 63.46 to 89.5, and the 3rd biggest jump was John Murtha, shooting up from 70.85 to 94.67.

In fact bigger jumps were shown by many of the other Dems subject to internal challenges or the threat thereof, often at the behest of the netroots: Jane Harman (who’s #13 on the Lifetime Bad Dem list) went from 79.08 to 93.32, Ellen Tauscher went from 84.01 to 95.97, and even Henry Cuellar beat Wynn, going from 74.25 to 85.24. (In case you’re wondering, only one Dem went in reverse: Nick Lampson went from a lifetime score of 75.28 to a 2007 score of 71.24, perhaps to compensate for his new very red district.)

So, there’s something here for both people from the “more” Democrats school and the “better” Democrats school to chew on. Primary challenges can sometimes be effective, but they have to be chosen wisely, and the best targets may not always be the most conservative. Also, there’s a lot of low-hanging fruit in the form of unpleasant right-wingers in light-red and swing districts; let’s get picking!

Methodological notes: Districts are rated according to PVI. There would be a lot of ties if I just used the Cook PVI ratings, so I took the actual vote totals in each district and used the PVI formula to recalculate PVIs to enough significant digits where aren’t any ties.

Representatives are rated according to the 2007-08 Progressive Punch scores and their 2007 National Journal composite scores, to smooth out any hiccups caused by one or the other compilers’ methods. To further increase the sample size I would have liked to also include DW-Nominate scores (which don’t cherry-pick votes but include all votes and measure representatives’ deviations from each other), but those won’t be published for the 110th Congress until it’s over in 2009, and to include ADA scores, but there isn’t enough differentiation there (for instance, 78 different representatives got a score of 95). Rather than averaging their two scores (where you run into an apples & oranges problem) and ranking the averaged scores, I ranked each representative from 1 to 422 on each score, then averaged their two rankings, then ranked the averaged rankings.

Here’s an example: Mike McIntyre is the midpoint for the House, at the 211th most liberal (or conservative) representative. He has a Progressive Punch score of 84.31, which is 208th. He has a National Journal score of 49.5, for a rank of 217.5 (a tie at 217th). The average of those is 212.75. An averaged score of 212.75 makes him the 211th overall. His district, NC-07, has a PVI of R+3.5271, the 230th most Democratic district in the nation. Subtract 211 from 230 for an OWI score of +19. Not much difference; he’s very slightly overperforming his district.

Wait… why are there only 422? Well, there are four open seats (those formerly held by Lantos, Jindal, Baker, and Wicker). Also, there are nine representatives for whom there wasn’t enough information to calculate a National Journal score (Richardson, Broun, Foster, Carson, Tsongas, Latta, and Wittman are all too new, while Cubin has missed too many votes and Pelosi ordinarily doesn’t vote). For each of these missing representatives, I also didn’t rank the district lean, so that the lean of open districts wouldn’t cause any distortion. For the last table on lifetime PP scores, there was a pool of 431, for which I re-ranked the lean of their 431 districts, so there may be some slight difference in district rankings compared with the other charts.

I fully acknowledge that these rankings don’t incorporate where their money comes from, who their back-room friends are, what they say in front of the cameras, how they frame things, or anything other than how they vote, but that’s the only thing that can be fairly quantified.

UPDATE: There have been some calls to make the whole database available, so I’ve done just that. It’s at Google Documents.

Regional analysis

I split the country into six regions for political analysis purposes.  Three of the regions trend Democratic (Northeast, Pacific, Great Lakes) while three favor the GOP (Plains, Mountains, South).  For purposes of this discusssion, I track House seats (number D, number R, % D), Senate seats (number D, number R, % D), Governorships, and Presidential voting in 2004 as well as the number of Bush Dogs (per the list on Open Left) and the percentage of the region’s House Democrats who are Bush Dogs.

Not surprisingly, the more solidly Democratic a region is, the less likely it is to elect a Bush Dog Democrat.  Only two of the Northeast’s 68 House Democrats are Bush Dogs (2.9%) while 19 of 58 Southern Democrats are Bush Dogs (32.7%).

The Northeast is the most solidly Democratic region in the country and seems to be swinging even more blue.  The region has the most House Democrats (68), the greatest number of Democratic pickups in 2006 (12 House seats/ 11 GOP House seats lost), and every one of the 11 states plus the District of Columbia went for Kerry in 2004.  It even claims the greatest number of governorships (9) and the highest percentage of Democratic governors (81.8%).

Surprisingly, the Northeast still offers Democrats a lot of opportunities in 2008. The region ‘s 24 House Republicans continue to scatter.  Five have announced they will not run for re-election and a sixth, Wayne Gilchrest, has been defeated in a primary by a right wing Club For Growth candidate in Maryland.  

One can make a case against Vito Fossella (NY-13) who faces a voter registration deficit and has less cash than a possible general election opponent.  Scott Garrett (NJ-5) is an extremist who has been slowly sinking since first elected. Jim Gerlach not only comes from a tough district but from one of only five GOP-held districts in which George W. Bush got a lower percentage of the vote against John Kerry than against Al Gore.

Democrat Eric Massa has more money than Randy Kuhl in NY-29 and gave Kuhl a tight race as a virtual unknown in 2006.  Jim Himes has also outraised  Chris Shays who is looking at his third nail biter in a row with a lot less national bucks to go around.  Frank LoBiondo’s Jersey district (NJ-2) has a Democratic lean and several promising local candidates are available and might be enticed into the race.  Sam Bennet in PA-15 has a similarly friendly district and a relatively weak opponent.  Peter King is also defending a tough district as the last Republican from Long Island.  He, too, has no opponent as of yet but the rumors are less encouraging for local Democrats.

Add it all up, and the Republicans are looking at perhaps ten safe seats in this election in an 11 state region.  And any Democrat elected is likely to be a moderate to full out progressive.  The only two Bush Dog Democratys from the region represent rural districts tin Pennsylvania that are not culturally part of the region.

The Pacific states are almost as friendly on the Presidential level as the northeast with only Alaska’s three electoral votes going for George W. Bush.  That disguises a deep divide between the Democratic coastal regions and the Republican interiors. The region has the second highest percentage of Democratic House members (46 D, 24R, 65.7%) and the second lowest percentage of Bush Dog Democrats (2 of 46, 4.3%).

The contrast between the Northeast in 2006 and the Pacific was startling.  Democrats in the region had high hopes but managed to pick up just one seat (Jerry McNerney defeated Richard Pombo).  Democrats came close but came away empty in WA-8, CA-50, and CA-4.  This cycle’s top targets include WA-8, CA-4, and AK-At Large. Two of the region’s three Republican Senators, Oregon’s Gordon Smith and Alaska’s aging and heavily investigated Ted Stevens are also being challenged this go around.

Three or four California House seats ooze corruption and should have at least the potential to be competitive but, as of this time, I am not too optimistic about seats like CA-50 (Bilbray), CA-26 (Dreier), CA-46 (Rohrabacher), CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack), or CA-49 (Issa).

The Great Lakes is the least Democratic Democratic region.  In fact, heavy gerrymanders by the GOP in Ohio and Michigan gave the GOP the slight edge in the region’s House selegations until Bill Foster’s election to Denny Hastert’s old seat in the special election.

One of the really encouraging things in this region is that a great number of GOP seats stayed on the table after 2006.  Republicans may have held on but they retired in droves leaving huge openings in Illinois and Ohio.  Hastert’s seat has already flipped and the 38-38 Democratic edge will likely expand.  Democrats have a great shot in OH-15 and certainly a good chance in OH-1, OH-2 and OH-16.  At least two GOP Michigan seats (MI-7, MI-9) are being vigorously contested this cycle and seats like IL-18, IL-11, and IL-6 are up for grabs. Jim Ramstad’s old seat in Minnesota is possible and some people seem to think that Michelle Bachman’s seat (MN-6, I think) is also in play.

Last cycle, Democrats elected three new Bush Dog members from Indiana and two from Ohio.  That gave the region’s Democrats a purplisch cast (9 of 39 Democrats are Bush Dogs,23.1%).  Most of the contested seats this time around represent more urban or at least suburban areas and the results will probably be more reliable votes as well as more Democratic members.  Nine of the region’s 12 Senators are Democrats and Minnesots Republicn Norm Coleman is facing a tough challenge this cycle.

That leaves us with the three Republican leaning regions.  Hopes are highest for the Mountains.  Last cycle Democrats picked up two seats in Arizona and one in Colorado.  This year, hopes center more on New Mexico (two seats) and Rick Renzi’s seat in Arizona.  A three seat piclup would change the delegation from 11-17 in favor of the Republicans to a flat footed tie.  Both Nevada seats and the At Large seats in Wyoming and Montana plus ID-2 have also been mentioned.

Bill Clinton carried three of these states (Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico in 1996 and five in 1992 when Ross Perot muddied up the waters (AZ, NM, NV, MT, CO).

Democrats have good chances for a Senate seat in New Mexico and one in Colorado.  That would even up the region’s Senate vote to 7-7.

The Plains is a rgion greatly helped by the oddities of US politics.  Iowa’s caucuses make the region important to a whole corps of Presidential wannabes in the US Senate.  Two Senate seats a piece certainly help the Dakotas.

With the notable exceptions of Iowa and Missouri most of the rest of the area produces either conservative Democrats or very conservative Republicans.

The South remains the Republicans key region although their electoral strength has probably peaked out.  Racially-based gerrymanders have created a series of sprawling majority minority districts that have been used to dilute Democratic strength in Congress.  No clearer example exists than the combo of VA-2 and VA-3.  Two more geographically compact districts would produce two pretty strong Democratic districts.  Instead, VA-2 skips many of the black areas in the VA. Beach-Norfolk Hampton roads area and Bobby Scott’s third district edges aroundto include most of Richmond a lot of rural areas and strategically picked, heavily Democratic areas of Hampton Roads.

Last cycle, Republicans lost two seats in Florida, one in North Carolina, one in Kentucky, and two in Texas.  Their current 82-58 edge in the South may well shrink again as Democrats guard several seats in Texas and two in Georgia but eye open seats in Louisiana and rematches in FL-13 and NC-8 as well as actual opportunities in places like Virginia and Kentucky.

Southern Democrats provide the margin that put Democrats back in the Speaker’s chair and the Senate Majority Leader role.  This remains a heavily Republican area for Presidential elections (Republicans won all 13 states for 166 electoral votes).  If Democrats can win three or four of these states they most certainly will win the Presidential election (Virginia, Florida, Arkansas, West Virginia are leading candidates) in part because any candidate who does that is likely to win Ohio as well.

As for the depressing numbers:

House (D 58,R 82, 41.4%)

Senate (D 7, R 19, 26.9%)

Governors (D 6, R 7, 46.2%)

Pr4sidential (13-0 on states, 166-0 on electoral votes)

Let’s build an Obamajority

There is still a lot more work to do if we want to get Barack Obama elected. But if we want to truly change this country we need to do more then that. We need to build strong Democratic majority in the House and Senate committed to passing Obama’s agenda of change. In short we need an Obamajority.

So I e-mailed a few people who had helped out with the Obamathon and came up with the idea for a fundraising drive like the Obamathon but for congressional candidates who will help build a Obamajority. Using the amazing ActBlue we have set up a fundraising page to build The New Obamajority. To start out it features three great candidates. Rick Noriega, Darcy Burner and Patrick Murphy. More will be added as time goes on (suggestions are welcome at obamathon (AT) gmail (DOT) com) but for now let me introduce you to those three great candidates who will help build an Obamajority.    



Rick Noriega

First off, Rick Noriega. Rick is running for Senate in Texas to take back LBJ’s old seat from Bush rubber stamp John Cornyn.

Rick is a Lt. Colonel in the Texas Army National Guard and has served in Afghanistan, he has been a accomplished state representative since 1998 and he managed the evacuee shelter operation in Houston. He was “drafted” into the Senate race by Texas activists and is now running a strong campaign against John Cornyn who is one of the worst Senators in the nation. But why should this race matter to Obama supporters?

Many presidents have been swept into office with a progressive agenda of reform but then faced the Senate. We don’t want Barack to have the same experience. The Republican minority has set a record in filibusters and has been able to over and over block progress on key issues. If we want Obama to be able to succeed in changing the country we will need more Democrats in the Senate. There are some races like Virgina that are likely going to be pickups but were we can help the most is in states like Texas that are at the verge of at least turning purple but are under the national radar. Money and energy at this point will help give Rick the resources needed to run a grassroots, people-powered campaign so he can defeat John Cornyn and help build an Obamajority. Donate today via the New Obamajority page and together we can do it. And if your wondering who Rick prefers in the presidential race read this quote from a newspaper:

   “I’m for whoever wins,” he replies diplomatically, before twirling into the second half of his answer: “I’m for who’s going to come back to Texas and help us fight (to) win Texas.”

   …

   Noriega falls back to Alamo imagery. “I’m drawing a line in the sand. My focus is which one of you (Obama or Clinton) is committed to help us win Texas back.

   “At the end of the day,” Noriega said, “I want to know who’s going to be in the foxhole with us.”

We know Barack Obama will be in that foxhole with him, and will execute the 50-state strategy to turn Texas blue and elect Rick Noriega to the Senate seat once held by Lyndon Baines Johnson. Donate today and make it a reality!



Darcy Burner:

Next up is Darcy Burner. She is running for Congress in Washington’s 8th congressional district against Rep. Dave Reichert. Bush and Reichert are such great pals that Bush decided to fly across the country to do a big fundraiser for him. In response we in the netroots raised almost 100,000 dollars for Darcy Burner in less then a week. She is a great candidate and stands a great shot to win and send a message of change to congress.

Darcy is a software engineer who got fed up of Reichert and his pal Bush and ran a underdog, grassroots campaign in 2006 and nearly won. She has learned from that campaign and is running again and stands a great shot of winning.

She won’t just be another vote in Congress. She will be a leader. As a congressional candidate she worked with other candidates, security experts, military leaders and others to develop the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq. That is the kind of leadership she will bring to congress.

If we want to enact Obama’s agenda we need more leaders. So help send one to congress. Donate to Darcy!



Patrick Murphy:

And finally Patrick Murphy. He is the first and only Iraq War veteran to serve in Congress and has helped lead the fight to bring our troops home from Iraq and ensure they receive the care and benefits they receive when they come back. With Barack Obama as President we can finish that job.

In 2006 by running a people-powered campaign similar to the one Obama is now running Patrick upset Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. But the Republicans have recruited a top-tier candidate and this will be a tough race.

Back in August 2007, Murphy stepped to the plate to endorse Barack Obama, and spent a great deal of time in Iowa and New Hampshire on the stump for Barack Obama. Patrick has stood with us and now let’s return the favor and help return him to congress. Donate to Murphy for an Obamajority.

There you go. Three great candidates who will help build an Obamajority to help Barack Obama achieve real change. Supporting Barack isn’t enough because he won’t be able to do anything if he doesn’t have an Obamajority. So let’s build one. Donate today. Spread the word. Have a idea for another canidate? Post it in the comments or e-mail obamathon (AT) gmail (DOT) com.

PA-05: McCracken offers real solutions for Veterans

This week I had the chance to participate in a candidate forum on veteran’s issues held in Franklin, Venango County.  The forum offered a great opportunity to address several issues important to veterans in the 5th district.  Several weeks ago I spoke with Ed Scurry, one of the veterans who set up the forum, and he mentioned to me the frustration that veterans in the north central region feel in trying to get regular attention from the current congressman.

Understanding their frustration, one of the ideas I offered during the forum is that I will employ a person on my district staff in the position of Veteran’s Liaison.  The top priorities of the Veteran’s Liaison will be to meet on a regular basis with veterans and veterans groups on issues important to them on the local, regional and national levels.  Additionally, I will utilize this person to keep me informed and up to date on all issues important to veterans.  Perhaps the most important part of my idea, and a promise I will keep, is the person I hire as the Veterans Liaison will be a veteran from the 5th district.

I also continue to press my idea that the federal Veteran’s Administration should have the ability to subcontract with local health care providers so elderly and disabled veterans can get health care services closer to home.  I’ve told the story several times during the campaign of Clearfield County veterans who have to travel to Pittsburgh to get cardiac care when we have a state of the art cardiac facility at the DuBois Regional Medical Center.

Another issue of great importance to veterans in the 5th district and across the nation is the issue of concurrent receipt.  It is my firm belief that a veteran’s pension payment and military disability compensation should be kept separated – one should not have an affect on the other.  A veteran has earned their pension and it should not have an amount deducted if they also receive disability compensation.  Additionally, if a veteran has served their country and suffered a service related disability, our nation owes them their disability compensation.  In Congress, I will support veterans receiving their full military pension and, for any disabled veterans, they should also receive their disability compensation in addition to their pension.

As a nation, we owe a tremendous debt to our veterans.  My recently deceased father was a proud veteran of World War II and my father-in-law served in Vietnam.  Also, as county commissioner, I work closely with our county VA Director to make sure he has the funding to adequately serve veterans in Clearfield County.  It’s a sad day when we hear the stories coming out of Congress that they fail to adequately fund services for our nation’s veterans.

————————

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

AK-AL: Yet Another Poll Has Young Behind

Hays Research for the Jake Metcalfe campaign (3/10/08 – 3/12/08):

Jake Metcalfe (D): 45%

Don Young (R-inc): 37%

Democratic Nominee: 41%

Don Young (R-inc): 34%

MoE: ±4.9%

Let’s see, counting this poll, that’s one, two, three, four surveys in a row showing crumb-bum Young trailing his Democratic challengers.

At this point, the biggest danger for Democrats lies in Lt. Governor Sean Parnell’s primary challenge against Young.

(Hat-tip: TPM EC)

House 2008: Open Seat Watch (March)

Definite House Retirements










































































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AL-02 Everett R R+13.2 71 Retiring
AZ-01 Renzi R R+2.2 50 Retiring
CA-04 Doolittle R R+10.9 58 Retiring
CA-12 Lantos D D+22.5 80 Retiring
CA-52 Hunter R R+9.3 60 Running for President
CO-02 Udall D D+8.1 58 Running for Senate
CO-06 Tancredo R R+10 62 Running for President
IL-11 Weller R R+1.1 51 Retiring
IL-18 LaHood R R+5.5 62 Retiring
LA-04 McCrery R R+6.5 59 Retiring
ME-01 Allen D D+6.2 63 Running for Senate
MN-03 Ramstad R R+0.5 62 Retiring (?)
MS-03 Pickering R R+14.1 45 Retiring
NJ-03 Saxton R D+3.3 60 Retiring
NJ-07 Ferguson R R+0.6 38 Retiring
NM-01 Wilson R D+2.4 47 Running for Senate
NM-02 Pearce R R+5.7 61 Running for Senate
NM-03 Udall D D+5.5 60 Running for Senate
NY-21 McNulty D D+8.7 61 Retiring
NY-25 Walsh R D+3.4 61 Retiring
OH-07 Hobson R R+6.0 72 Retiring
OH-15 Pryce R R+1.1 57 Retiring
OH-16 Regula R R+3.6 84 Retiring
PA-05 Peterson R R+9.7 69 Retiring
WY-AL Cubin R R+19.4 61 Retiring



*Denotes impending special election

Vacancies & Resignations

District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
IL-14 Hastert R R+4.8 67 Resigned*
LA-01 Jindal R R+18.5 37 Elected Governor*
LA-06 Baker R R+6.5 60 Cashing In*
MS-01 Wicker R R+10.0 57 Appointed to the Senate*

Potential House Retirements































































































































































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Young R R+14.3 75 Under investigation
CA-24 Gallegly R R+4.8 64 Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-41 Lewis R R+9.0 74 Under investigation
CO-05 Lamborn R R+15.7 54 Primary challenge
DE-AL Castle R D+6.5 69 Health issues
FL-10 Young R D+1.1 78 Age issues/Speculation
GA-10 Broun R R+12.7 61 Primary challenge
IA-03 Boswell D D+1.4 74 Health issues/Primary challenge
IL-03 Lipinski D D+10.3 42 Primary challenge
LA-02 Jefferson D D+27.8 61 Indicted
MD-01 Gilchrest R R+9.8 62 Primary challenge
MD-04 Wynn D D+29.8 57 Primary challenge
MD-06 Bartlett R R+12.8 82 Age issues
MO-06 Graves R R+4.8 44 Potential gubernatorial run
MO-08 Emerson R R+11.0 58 Potential gubernatorial run
MO-09 Hulshof R R+6.5 50 Potential gubernatorial run
MI-03 Ehlers R R+9.0 74 Speculation
NC-09 Myrick R R+12.2 67 Speculation
NY-23 McHugh R R+0.2 60 Speculation
OH-02 Schmidt R R+13.1 56 Primary challenge
TN-09 Cohen D D+18.1 59 Primary challenge
TX-04 Hall R R+17.1 85 Age issues/Primary challenge
VA-11 Davis R R+0.6 59 Mulling retirement