House – Page 9 – Swing State Project

Learning from 1994 (Part I)

The ghost of 1994 has kept hanging over the House Democrats’ heads almost this entire Congress. That’s more the product of conventional wisdom feeding upon itself and turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy than anything else, but there are legitimate warning signs on the road ahead: not just the natural pendulum-swinging that occurs during almost every midterm against the party that controls all levels of power, but also clues like the Republicans moving into the lead in many generic congressional ballots and polls showing Republicans competitive in individual House races (although many of those polls are either internals or from dubious pollsters).

On the other hand, there are plenty of reasons to expect that, while the Democrats may lose seats, there won’t be a 1994-level wipeout. There aren’t as many retirements as in 1994 (where the Dems had 28 open seats), and certainly not as many retirements in unpleasantly red seats (17 of those 1994 retirements were in GOP-leaning seats according to the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index – compared with only 8 facing us in 2010). There are still lots of polls, of the non-Rasmussen variety, giving the Dems an edge in the generic ballot. The DCCC has a sizable financial advantage, and maybe most importantly, the DCCC and its individual members appear acutely aware of the potential danger, unlike in ’94, when they seemed to blithely sail into disaster.

This week we’re going to be doing a multi-part series looking at the House in 1994, trying to draw some parallels and applying those lessons to today. To make this investigation as accessible as possible, we’re going to frame it in terms of a number of myths about 1994, and see how much reality there is to them. For instance, were the members who lost done in by their “yes” votes on tough bills? And was the impact of the post-1992, post-Voting Rights Act redistricting a killer for moderate southern Dems suddenly cast into more difficult districts? Those are problems we’ll look at in the next few days. For today, we’ll start with:

Myth #1: Losses in 1994 were full of surprises: the old and the new, the vulnerable and the safe were swept away together by the tide.

No, not especially true. According to standard diagnostic tools (such as Cook PVI or the 1992 victory margins of individual House members), the vulnerable seats were lost; the not-so-vulnerable seats were retained. The House Vulnerability Index that I’ve applied in several posts to today’s electoral cycle, in fact, does a pretty remarkable job of predicting who would have lost in 1994. If you aren’t familiar with it, it simply combines PVI and previous victory margin into one handy value that rates a particular member’s vulnerability relative to other members of the same party. (For open seats, the HVI uses a victory margin of zero.) It doesn’t predict how likely a person is to lose – that depends heavily on the nature of the year – but it does predict likelihood of losing relative to other members of the party. (Cook hasn’t officially released PVIs for this era as far as I know, but I calculated them based on the 1988 and 1992 presidential election data for each district, according to post-1992 district lines.)

As it turns out, the HVI shows that, of the 25 most vulnerable seats in 1994, 23 were lost to the Republicans. Of seats 26 through 50, another 13 were lost. And of pre-1994 Democratic House members outside the top 100 in terms of vulnerability, there were only seven losses. In other words, the wave in 1994 was high enough that it claimed not only the open seats in red districts, but sloshed upward to claim a herd of freshmen in difficult districts and also veterans who’d had troubles in recent re-elections. (But what it didn’t do was claim more than a handful of those who seemed “invulnerable” either because of district lean or 1992 margin or both.)

District	Rep.	1992 Margin	Margin Rating	PVI	PVI Rating	Total
FL-01	Open (Hutto)	0	0	R+20	1	1
FL-15	Open (Bacchus)	0	0	R+14	5	5
SC-03	Open (Derrick)	0	0	R+13	8	8
AZ-01	Open (Coppersmith)	0	0	R+9	13	13
GA-08	Open (Rowland)	0	0	R+8	16	16
IN-02	Open (Sharp)	0	0	R+8	19	19
MS-01	Open (Whitten)	0	0	R+7	23	23
NC-02	Open (Valentine)	0	0	R+7	24	24
OK-04	Open (McCurdy)	0	0	R+7	28	28
NE-02	Hoagland	2.4%	15	R+8	15	30
TN-03	Open (Lloyd)	0	0	R+5	36	36
UT-02	Shepherd	3.7%	20	R+8	17	37
WA-04	Inslee	1.7%	12	R+7	30	42
PA-06	Holden	4.1%	23	R+7	22	45
GA-10	Johnson	7.6%	37	R+10	12	49
CA-19	Lehman	0.5%	2	R+4	48	50
NC-05	Open (Neal)	0	0	R+4	50	50
NY-01	Hochbrueckner	3.1%	17	R+6	34	51
NJ-02	Open (Hughes)	0	0	R+4	52	52
PA-13	Margolies-Mezvinsky	0.5%	3	R+4	51	54
OH-06	Strickland	1.4%	9	R+4	46	55
VA-11	Byrne	4.8%	24	R+5	38	62
MI-10	Bonior	8.9%	44	R+7	21	65
KS-02	Open (Slattery)	0	0	R+2	68	68
TN-04	Open (Cooper)	0	0	R+2	70	70
MI-08	Open (Carr)	0	0	R+1	74	74
VA-02	Pickett	12.1%	66	R+11	9	75
OH-02	Mann	2.5%	16 *	R+2	61	77
IL-11	Open (Sangmeister)	0	0	R+1	78	78
KS-04	Glickman	9.6%	49	R+6	31	80
NC-03	Lancaster	11.2%	60	R+8	20	80
GA-07	Darden	14.6%	76	R+11	10	86
ME-01	Open (Andrews)	0	0	R+0	86	86
MN-07	Peterson	1.3%	6	R+1	80	86
MN-02	Minge	0.2%	1	R+0	87	88
CA-36	Harman	6.2%	31	R+3	59	90
MI-12	Levin	6.9%	34	R+3	57	91
MN-01	Open (Penny)	0	0	D+1	94	94
GA-09	Deal	18.4%	89	R+14	6	95
IN-08	McCloskey	7.2%	36	R+2	63	99
NJ-08	Klein	5.9%	29	R+1	72	101
OR-05	Open (Kopetski)	0	0	D+2	101	101
MT-AL	Williams	3.5%	19	R+0	83	102
OH-18	Open (Applegate)	0	0	D+2	104	104
PA-15	McHale	5.6%	27	R+1	77	104
MO-09	Volkmer	2.3%	14	D+1	93	107
OH-19	Fingerhut	5.3%	25	R+0	82	107
TX-04	Hall	20.0%	96	R+11	11	107
AZ-06	English	11.6%	64	R+4	45	109
FL-05	Thurman	5.8%	28	R+1	81	109
ND-AL	Pomeroy	17.4%	84	R+7	25	109
MD-05	Hoyer	9.1%	45	R+2	65	110
WA-02	Open (Swift)	0	0	D+2	110	110
UT-03	Orton	22.3%	109	R+18	2	111
ID-01	LaRocco	20.6%	98	R+9	14	112
NJ-06	Pallone	7.7%	38	R+1	73	111
OK-02	Open (Synar)	0	0	D+3	117	117
IN-03	Roemer	14.9%	78	R+5	40	118
IN-04	Long	24.1%	114	R+13	7	121
WI-01	Barca	0.6% *	4	D+3	118	122
NY-26	Hinchey	3.3%	18	D+2	105	123
TX-25	Open (Andrews)	0	0	D+3	126	126
KY-03	Open (Mazzoli)	0	0	D+3	127	127
FL-11	Gibbons	12.2%	67	R+2	62	129
MS-05	Taylor	27.8%	127	R+16	3	130
CA-03	Fazio	10.9%	59	R+1	75	134
CA-49	Schenk	8.5%	41	D+1	95	136
TN-06	Gordon	16.0%	81	R+3	56	137
NC-07	Rose	15.9%	80	R+3	58	138
TX-13	Sarpalius	20.7%	99	R+5	39	138
MI-13	Open (Ford)	0	0	D+4	139	139
AL-03	Browder	22.7%	113	R+7	27	140
CA-42	Brown	6.7%	32	D+2	108	140
SC-05	Spratt	22.5%	111	R+6	32	143
MI-01	Stupak	10.3%	55	D+0	89	144
NC-08	Hefner	21.1%	102	R+5	44	146
NY-18	Lowey	9.5%	48	D+1	99	147
OH-03	Hall	19.3%	92	R+3	55	147
WA-05	Foley	10.4%	56	D+1	92	148
CT-02	Gejdenson	1.6%	11	D+4	138	149
KY-06	Baesler	21.4%	105	R+4	47	152
MI-09	Kildee	8.9%	42	D+3	113	155
NH-02	Swett	26.0%	119	R+5	43	162
OR-01	Furse	4.1%	22	D+4	140	162
IL-03	Lipinski	27.0%	122	R+5	42	164
WA-09	Kreidler	8.9%	43	D+3	122	165
OH-13	Brown	18.1%	87	R+1	79	166
MO-06	Danner	10.9%	58	D+3	111	169
NY-05	Ackerman	6.1%	30	D+5	143	173
NY-28	Slaughter	10.4%	57	D+3	116	173
WA-01	Cantwell	12.9%	70	D+2	103	173
TX-16	Coleman	3.8%	21	D+6	155	176
CA-01	Hamburg	2.6%	16	D+7	164	180
TX-17	Stenholm	32.1%	147	R+6	33	180
NY-29	LaFalce	11.4%	62	D+3	123	185
TX-12	Geren	25.5%	118	R+2	67	185
MA-05	Meehan	14.7%	77	D+2	109	186
AL-05	Cramer	33.6%	152	R+6	35	187
PA-20	Open (Murphy)	0	0	D+11	192	192
VA-09	Boucher	26.2%	121	R+2	71	192

The two survivors in 1994 from the top 25 are David Bonior, a member of leadership, and Tim Holden, then a freshman. Both, however, are guys who fit their blue-collar districts well (with a mix of pro-labor and socially conservative stances), and who have since proved their campaign mettle repeatedly (with Bonior holding down his difficult district for many years, and with Holden surprising everyone by surviving the 2002 gerrymander that targeted him for extinction). Among the most predictable losses in 1994, open seats led the way. However, losses among the most vulnerable incumbents included both frosh in red districts (Karen Shepherd and Jay Inslee were the most vulnerable) and veterans with tenuous holds on difficult districts (starting with Peter Hoagland and George Hochbrueckner, who both narrowly escaped 1992).

(The two italicized races above required some manual adjustment. OH-01 initially seems safe because David Mann technically had no Republican opponent in 1992. However, he defeated Stephen Grote, a Republican who ran as an independent due to problems with his GOP nominating papers, by just 2.5%, so it seems appropriate to use that number instead. In WI-01, Peter Barca needs to be evaluated by his narrow 1993 special election victory, rather than Les Aspin’s convincing ’92 general election victory.)

The seven who lost despite being outside of the top 100 most vulnerable are an interesting mixed bag. The popular perception (perhaps helped along by the mainstream media, shocked to see their frequent cocktail party compatriots swept away) of the 1994 election is that many “old bulls” were swept out of power. In reality, only a few were: depending on who you count as an “old bull,” it’s more or less 4. They mostly fall in this 100+ area; in fact, the only legendary figure to lose who wasn’t in this range was then-Speaker of the House Tom Foley, who clocked in at #79. Most of the other vulnerable incumbents who lost weren’t legends but are little remembered today, perhaps except for for Dan Glickman (who went on to run the MPAA), Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (famous mostly for being 94’s iconic loser), and Dick Swett (who just has a hilarious name).

Another perception is that there was a major house-cleaning of Reps caught up in the House banking scandal or sundry other corruption, but only one falls in this category: Dan Rostenkowski. “Old bulls” Judiciary chair Jack Brooks and Appropriations cardinal Neal Smith weren’t implicated in anything, but rather just seem to have been caught napping — as was the less-senior David Price, who returned to the House in 1996, where he remains today. (Most of the House banking scandal-related house-cleaning occurred in 1992, often in Democratic primaries rather than the general.)

Rank	District	Rep.	1992 Margin	Margin Rating	PVI	PVI Rating	Total
102	KY-01	Barlow	21.3%	104	D+0	90	194
104	TX-09	Brooks	10.1%	52	D+5	142	194
107	NV-01	Bilbray	19.9%	95	D+1	100	195
113	WA-03	Unsoeld	11.9%	65	D+4	136	201
124	IL-05	Rostenkowski	18.2%	88	D+5	146	234
129	NC-04	Price	30.9%	142	D+1	96	238
135	IA-04	Smith	25.1%	115	D+4	135	250

The Vulnerability Index was even highly predictive of losses of Republican seats (and yes, there were some: a total of four, all open seats in Dem-leaning districts). Of the top 6 most vulnerable Republican-held seats, 4 were Democratic pickups. In any other year, several of these incumbents probably would have also been taken out.

District	Rep.	1992 Margin	Margin Rating	PVI	PVI Rating	Total
PA-18	Open (Santorum)	0	0	D+11	2	2
RI-01	Open (Machtley)	0	0	D+11	3	3
IA-02	Nussle	1.1%	3	D+6	8	11
IA-03	Lightfoot	1.9%	5	D+6	6	11
MN-06	Open (Grams)	0	0	D+2	14	14
ME-02	Open (Snowe)	0	0	D+1	15	15
NY-30	Quinn	5.4%	21	D+12	1	22
AR-04	Dickey	4.7%	19	D+6	7	26
MA-03	Blute	6.1%	25	D+5	9	34
CA-38	Horn	5.2%	20	D+1	18	38

So, what lessons might we infer from all this? First, we should probably expect to kiss a number of our open seats, especially ones in red districts, goodbye, as open seats are the first to fall. (In 1994, the GOP ran the table on all Dem-held open seats in GOP-leaning districts and even into most of swing territory; the reddest open seat Dems held in ’94 was the D+3 TX-25, retained by Ken Bentsen.) We shouldn’t be surprised to see some losses among the freshmen either, as they tend to wind up high up the Vulnerability Index (because freshmen usually win their prior elections – i.e., their first – by narrower margins than veterans win theirs). And finally, we can still hope to pick up a handful of the most vulnerable GOP-held seats regardless of the size of the GOP wave (you can probably name the same ones I’m thinking of: DE-AL, LA-02, and IL-10).

House Districts now have Republican candidates (2 of 2)

A week ago I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

Lots more Districts now have Republican candidates and they are getting wingnuttier all the time.

AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,

CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,

CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,

CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,

CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,

CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,

CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,

IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,

IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,

MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,

MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,

MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,

NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,

NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,

OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,

OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,

OH-17 (Ryan) – D+12,

PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,

WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,

Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

As we assumed for us so should we assume for them; so all 177 Republican held districts can be considered filled.

176 Democratic held Districts have confirmed GOP candidates:

AL-02 (Bright) – R+16,

AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+6,

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AZ-05 (Mitchell) – R+5,

AZ-07 (Grijalva) – D+6,

AZ-08 (Giffords) – R+4,

AR-01 (Berry OPEN) – R+8,

AR-02 (Snyder OPEN) – R+5,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-01 (Thompson) – D+13,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-08 (Pelosi) – D+35,

CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,

CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,

CA-20 (Costa) – D+5,

CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,

CA-30 (Waxman) – D+18,

CA-33 (Watson OPEN) – D+35,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,

CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CA-53 (Davis) – D+14,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,

CO-03 (Salazar) – R+5,

CO-04 (Markey) – R+6,

CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+4,

CT-02 (Courtney) – D+6,

CT-03 (DeLauro) – D+9,

CT-04 (Himes) – D+5,

CT-05 (Murphy) – D+2,

FL-02 (Boyd) – R+6,

FL-03 (Brown) – D+18,

FL-08 (Grayson) – R+2,

FL-11 (Castor) – D+11,

FL-17 (Meek OPEN) – D+34,

FL-19 (Wexler Special Election) – D+15,

FL-20 (Wasserman Schulz) – D+13,

FL-22 (Klein) – D+1,

FL-23 (Hastings) – D+28,

FL-24 (Kosmas) – R+4,

GA-02 (Bishop) – D+1,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

GA-12 (Barrow) – D+1,

GA-13 (Scott) – D+15,

HI-01 (Abercrombie OPEN) – D+11,

ID-01 (Minnick) – R+18,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+1,

IA-03 (Boswell) – D+1,

KS-03 (Moore OPEN) – R+3,

LA-03 (Melancon OPEN) – R+12,

ME-02 (Michaud) – D+3,

MD-01 (Kratovil) – R+13,

MD-03 (Sarbanes) – D+6,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MD-08 (Van Hollen Jr) – D+21,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-02 (Neal) – D+9,

MA-04 (Frank) – D+14,

MA-05 (Tsongas) – D+8,

MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7,

MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MI-07 (Schauer) – R+2,

MI-09 (Peters) – D+2,

MI-12 (Levin) – D+12,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

MN-04 (McCollum) – D+13,

MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

MO-04 (Skelton) – R+14,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NH-01 (Shea Porter) – D+0,

NH-02 (Hodes OPEN) – D+3,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NJ-12 (Holt) – D+5,

NY-01 (Bishop) – D+0,

NY-04 (McCarthy) – D+6,

NY-13 (McMahon) – R+4,

NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,

NY-19 (Hall) – R+3,

NY-22 (Hinchey) – D+6,

NY-23 (Owens) – R+1,

NY-25 (Maffei) – D+3,

NY-29 (Massa) – R+5,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OK-02 (Boren) – R+14,

OR-01 (Wu) – D+8,

OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,

PA-03 (Dahlkemper) – R+3,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

PA-07 (Sestak OPEN) – D+3,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-10 (Carney) – R+8,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-12 (Murtha) – R+1,

PA-13 (Schwartz) – D+7,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

RI-01 (Kennedy OPEN) – D+13,

RI-02 (Langevin) – D+9,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) – R+9,

TN-04 (Davis) – R+13,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TN-06 (Gordon OPEN) – R+13,

TN-08 (Tanner OPEN) – R+6,

UT-02 (Matheson) – R+15,

VA-02 (Nye) – R+5,

VA-05 (Perriello) – R+5,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

VA-09 (Boucher) – R+11,

VA-11 (Connolly) – D+2,

WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,

WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,

WA-03 (Baird OPEN) – D+0,

WA-06 (Dicks) – D+5,

WA-09 (Smith) – D+5,

WI-02 (Baldwin) – D+15,

WI-03 (Kind) – D+4,

WI-04 (Moore) – D+22,

WI-07 (Obey) – D+3,

WI-08 (Kagen) – R+2,

This includes 10 Districts where candidate filing has closed:

IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,

IL-02 (Jackson Jr) – D+36,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-08 (Bean) – R+1,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-11 (Halvorson) – R+1,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IL-14 (Foster) – R+1,

IL-17 (Hare) – D+3,

IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IN-08 (Ellsworth) – R+8,

IN-09 (Hill) – R+6,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,

MS-01 (Childers) – R+14,

MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,

MS-04 (Taylor) – R+20,

NM-01 (Heinrich) – D+5,

NM-02 (Teague) – R+6,

NM-03 (Lujan) – D+7,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,

NC-04 (Price) – D+8,

NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+5,

NC-08 (Kissell) – R+2,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

NC-13 (Miller) – D+5,

OH-01 (Driehaus) – D+1,

OH-06 (Wilson) – R+2,

OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-15 (Kilroy) – D+1,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OH-17 (Ryan) – D+12,

OH-18 (Space) – R+7,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,

WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,

7 Democratic held Districts have GOP candidates that are considering a run:

CA-10 (Garamendi) – D+11,

ME-01 (Pingree) – D+8,

NY-14 (Maloney) – D+26,

NY-20 (Murphy) – R+2,

NY-24 (Arcuri) – R+2,

WA-07 (McDermott) – D+31,

1 Democratic held District has a rumoured GOP Party candidates:

NJ-08 (Pascrell) – D+10,

72 Democratic held Districts don’t have any GOP candidates:

CA-05 (Matsui) – D+15,

CA-07 (Miller) – D+19,

CA-09 (Lee) – D+37,

CA-12 (Speier) – D+23,

CA-14 (Eshoo) – D+21,

CA-16 (Lofgren) – D+16,

CA-17 (Farr) – D+19,

CA-31 (Becerra) – D+29,

CA-32 (Chu) – D+15,

CA-34 (Roybal-Allard) – D+22,

CA-35 (Waters) – D+31,

CA-37 (Richardson) – D+26,

CA-38 (Napolitano) – D+18,

CA-43 (Baca) – D+13,

CT-01 (Larson) – D+13,

GA-05 (Lewis) – D+26,

HI-02 (Hirono) – D+14,

MD-02 (Ruppersberger) – D+7,

MD-07 (Cummings) – D+25,

MA-03 (McGovern) – D+9,

MA-08 (Capuano) – D+32,

MA-09 (Lynch) – D+11,

MI-01 (Stupak) – R+3,

MI-13 (Kilpatrick) – D+31,

MI-14 (Conyers) – D+34,

MI-15 (Dingell) – D+13,

MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5,

MO-01 (Clay) – D+27,

NJ-01 (Andrews) – D+12,

NJ-06 (Pallone) – D+8,

NJ-09 (Rothman) – D+9,

NJ-10 (Payne) – D+33,

NJ-13 (Sires) – D+21,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-05 (Ackerman) – D+12,

NY-06 (Meeks) – D+36,

NY-07 (Crowley) – D+26,

NY-08 (Nadler) – D+22,

NY-09 (Weiner) – D+5,

NY-10 (Towns) – D+38,

NY-11 (Clarke) – D+38,

NY-12 (Velazquez) – D+33,

NY-16 (Serrano) – D+41,

NY-17 (Engel) – D+18,

NY-18 (Lowey) – D+9,

NY-21 (Tonko) – D+6,

NY-27 (Higgins) – D+4,

NY-28 (Slaughter) – D+15,

OR-03 (Blumenauer) – D+19,

PA-02 (Fattah) – D+38,

SC-06 (Clyburn) – D+12,

TN-09 (Cohen) – D+23,

VT-AL (Welch) – D+13,

VA-03 (Scott) – D+20,

Candidate Filing closed – No Candidate – 2 Districts

IL-04 (Gutierrez) – D+32,

So the Republicans have confirmed candidates in 353 districts (with 2 Democrats being given free passes in 2010). Take a look at some of their challengers websites though and your eyeballs will bleed. They also have 7 districts with candidates that are considering a run and 1 district with rumoured candidates.

They also have some huge gaps in California and New York.

They already have a full House slate in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming (we have 23 such states).

They also have but one slot to fill in Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Missouri, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia (we have 8 such states).

And of course there is Illinois where 2 districts won’t have Republican candidates on the ballot in 2010.

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

More updates soon.

House Healthcare Vote

The House just voted to pass the healthcare bill that the Senate passed in December, 219-212. When the House voted on its own healthcare bill in November, 39 Democrats voted “no.” On this bill, 34 Dems voted no. We’ll bring you the roll call as soon as we have it.

UPDATE: Roll call on Senate bill here.

Of the 39 original “no” votes, 29 voted “no” a second time (note that one of those original “nos,” Eric Massa, is no longer in Congress, and another, Parker Griffith, switched parties):

District	Incumbent	Obama %age	Kerry %age
AL-02	Bobby Bright	36	33
AL-07	Artur Davis	72	64
AR-04	Mike Ross	39	48
GA-08	Jim Marshall	43	39
GA-12	John Barrow	54	49
ID-01	Walter Minnick	36	30
KY-06	Ben Chandler	43	41
LA-03	Charlie Melancon	37	41
MD-01	Frank Kratovil	40	36
MN-07	Collin Peterson	47	43
MO-04	Ike Skelton	38	35
MS-01	Travis Childers	38	37
MS-04	Gene Taylor	32	31
NC-07	Mike McIntyre	47	44
NC-08	Larry Kissell	53	45
NC-11	Heath Shuler	47	43
NJ-03	John Adler	52	49
NM-02	Harry Teague	49	41
NY-13	Mike McMahon	49	45
OK-02	Dan Boren	34	41
PA-04	Jason Altmire	44	45
PA-17	Tim Holden	48	42
SD-AL	Stephanie Herseth Sandlin	45	38
TN-04	Lincoln Davis	34	41
TN-08	John Tanner	43	47
TX-17	Chet Edwards	32	30
UT-02	Jim Matheson	39	31
VA-02	Glenn Nye	51	42
VA-09	Rick Boucher	40	39

On the flipside, 8 Dems who voted “no” the first time switched to “yes” this time:

District	Incumbent	Obama %age	Kerry %age
CO-04	Betsy Markey	49	41
FL-02	Allen Boyd	45	46
FL-24	Suzanne Kosmas	49	45
NY-20	Scott Murphy	51	46
OH-10	Dennis Kucinich	59	58
OH-16	John Boccieri	48	46
TN-06	Bart Gordon	37	40
WA-03	Brian Baird	52	48

And five Democrats who had voted “yes” the first time switched to “no” this time:

District	Incumbent	Obama %age	Kerry %age
AR-01	Marion Berry	38	47
IL-03	Dan Lipinski	64	59
MA-09	Stephen Lynch	60	63
NY-24	Mike Arcuri	51	47
OH-18	Zack Space	45	43

GOP Rep. Joe Cao (LA-02) also voted “yes” last time but switched to “no” this time.

UPDATE: The roll call for the Republican motion to recommit the reconciliation bill is available. Dems voting with the GOP:

Altmire, Barrow, Berry, Boren, Bright, Chandler, Childers, Costello, Davis(TN), Donnelly, Holden, Lipinski, Marshall, Matheson, McIntyre, Melancon, Peterson, Ross, Shuler, Skelton, Taylor

On the reconciliation bill itself, two Dems voted “yes” who had voted “no” on the Senate bill, Lynch and Lipinski. On the flipside, Jim Cooper (TN-05) had voted “yes” on the Senate bill but voted “no” on the reconciliation bill.

Many more House Districts now have Democratic candidates.

In less than 10 months the midterms will be upon us.

In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.

How will we go in 2010?

Since my last update many more brave Democrats have stepped up to run in Republican held Districts.

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,

IN-04 (Buyer OPEN) – R+14,

IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,

KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,

KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,

NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,

NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,

OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,

OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,

OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,

OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,

OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,

OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Well for starters I think we can safely assume that we will field candidates in all 257 of the Districts that we currently hold.

So onto the Republican held districts:

GOP held Districts have confirmed Democratic Party candidates. This includes in states where candidate filing is still open:

AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,

AK-AL (Young) – R+13,

AZ-03 (Shadegg OPEN) – R+9,

AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,

AR-03 (Boozman OPEN) – R+16,

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

CA-19 (Radanovich Open) – R+9,

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

C0-06 (Coffman) – R+8,

DE-AL (Castle OPEN) – D+7,

FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,

FL-05 (Brown-Waite) – R+9,

FL-06 (Stearns) – R+10,

FL-07 (Mica) – R+7,

FL-10 (Young) – R+1,

FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,

FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,

FL-14 (Mack) – R+11,

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,

FL-21 (Diaz-Balart OPEN) – R+5,

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart OPEN) – R+5,

GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,

GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

IA-05 (King) – R+9,

KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,

KS-04 (Tiahrt OPEN) – R+14,

LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

MD-06 (Bartlett) – R+13,

MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,

MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,

MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,

MT-AL (Rehberg) – R+7,

NV-02 (Heller) – R+5,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,

PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,

PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

PA-16 (Pitts) – R+8,

PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,

PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,

SC-01 (Brown OPEN) – R+10,

SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,

SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,

TN-03 (Wamp OPEN) – R+13,

TN-07 (Blackburn) – R+18,

VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,

WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,

WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,

WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,

Included in this total are 20 GOP held Districts with candidates in states where filing has closed:

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

IL-10 (Kirk OPEN) – D+6,

IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,

IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

IL-18 (Schock) – R+6,

IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,

IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,

IN-04 (Buyer OPEN) – R+14,

IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,

IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,

KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,

KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,

KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,

KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,

MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,

NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,

NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

NE-03 (Smith) – R+24,

NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,

NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,

NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,

NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,

NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,

OH-02 (Schmidt) – R+13,

OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,

OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,

OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,

OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,

OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,

4 GOP held Districts have Democratic Party candidates that are considering a run:

NY-03 (King) – R+4,

WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,

2 GOP held Districts have rumoured Democratic Party candidates:

FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,

OK-01 (Sullivan) – R+16,

GOP held Districts don’t have any Democratic Party candidates:

AL-01 (Bonner) – R+14,

AL-04 (Aderholt) – R+26,

AZ-02 (Franks) – R+13,

CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,

CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,

CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,

CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,

C0-05 (Lamborn) – R+14,

FL-04 (Crenshaw) – R+17,

FL-09 (Bilirakis) – R+6,

GA-01 (Kingston) – R+16,

GA-03 (Westmoreland) – R+19,

GA-06 (Price) – R+19,

GA-07 (Linder) – R+16,

GA-11 (Gingrey) – R+20,

ID-02 (Simpson) – R+17,

KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,

LA-01 (Scalise) – R+24,

LA-04 (Fleming) – R+11,

LA-05 (Alexander) – R+14,

LA-06 (Cassidy) – R+10,

LA-07 (Boustany) – R+14,

MI-03 (Ehlers OPEN) – R+6,

MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,

MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,

MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,

MI-10 (Miller) – R+5,

MO-02 (Akin) – R+9,

MO-06 (Graves) – R+7,

MO-07 (Blunt OPEN) – R+15,

MO-09 (Luetkemeyer) – R+9,

NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+7,

NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+7,

NY-26 (Lee) – R+6,

OK-03 (Lucas) – R+24,

OK-04 (Cole) – R+18,

OK-05 (Fallin OPEN) – R+13,

PA-05 (Thompson) – R+9,

PA-09 (Shuster) – R+17,

SC-04 (Inglis) – R+15,

TN-01 (Roe) – R+21,

TN-02 (Duncan) – R+16,

UT-01 (Bishop) – R+21,

UT-03 (Chaffetz) – R+26,

VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,

VA-06 (Goodlatte) – R+12,

VA-07 (Cantor) – R+9,

WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers) – R+7,

WY-AL (Lummis) – R+20,

Included in this total are 6 Republican held districts where there is not a Democratic candidate on the ballot as at the closing of candidate filings:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

So we now have candidate in House Districts, 4 Districts with candidates considering their options and 2 with rumored candidates.

In this stage in 2007 we had candidates in about 370 Districts but we do now hold 20 more districts. All things considered not a bad position to be in.

Whilst at this stage there is no real cause for concern vis a vis candidate recruitment, so much more remains to be done.

On the upside we already have a full slate in 23 states – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont & West Virginia.

We also have only 1 district to fill in 8 states – Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, South Carolina, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

On the other hand we have Texas where 6 GOP incumbents will be unopposed in November!

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

IA-03, IA-02: GOP nominees could be decided at convention

Candidates for federal office may file nominating papers in Iowa from March 1 to March 19. As many as seven Republican candidates may be competing for the chance to face seven-term Representative Leonard Boswell in Iowa’s third district this year. John Deeth noticed yesterday that Scott Batcher was the first to file for the Republican nomination in IA-03. Batcher’s campaign website highlights extensive experience in business, including 15 years as a healthcare consultant. He’s been running a low-profile campaign, but collected enough signatures “at high school basketball games and coffee shops” to attempt to qualify for the ballot.

Five declared Republican candidates have filed Federal Election Commission reports on fundraising for the IA-03 race, so I assume they will follow through and qualify for the ballot: Jim Gibbons, Brad Zaun, Dave Funk, Mark Rees and Pat Bertroche. A seventh Republican, Jason Welch, was rumored to be getting into this race too, but what turns up on Google searches as Welch’s official website hasn’t been working when I’ve clicked on it.

The second Congressional district Republican primary will be nearly as crowded, with four declared candidates likely to qualify for the ballot: Rob Gettemy, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Chris Reed and Steve Rathje. (So far only Rathje has filed nominating papers.) Gettemy just announced his candidacy this week and has ties to some heavy Republican hitters in the Cedar Rapids area.

If no candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the June 8 primary, district conventions would select the Republican nominee in IA-02 and/or IA-03. In 2002, a fifth district convention selected Steve King as the Republican nominee for Congress after no one in the four-way primary cleared the 35 percent threshold.

Republican county conventions scheduled for this weekend will select delegates for the district conventions, which will be held later this spring. If no winner emerges from the June primary, the second or third district conventions would have to reconvene to select a Congressional nominee. That could happen during the state convention, to be held on June 26 in a location not yet determined. The convention usually takes place in Des Moines but has occasionally been held in Cedar Rapids. This year, Sioux City is also in the running as a venue. That would be a three to four hour drive from the counties in IA-03 and a four to seven hour drive from the counties in IA-02.

Western Iowa is the most Republican area of the state, but the bulk of the Iowa population still lives in the eastern counties. Former GOP State Central Committee member David Chung, who lives in Cedar Rapids, sounded the alarm on his Hawkeye GOP blog:

Even if hotels are short in Des Moines, holding the convention in Sioux CIty almost guarantees that a large number of delegates will need hotel rooms. I do not know whether there will be a major pre-convention event but if there is, it will be impossible for 1st and 2nd Republicans to attend without taking a whole day off from work.

Even worse, given the number of candidates for the 2nd and 3rd district congressional races there is the real possibility that the nominee will be chosen at a district convention. The state convention has been scheduled long enough after the primary to make resolving nominations at the convention possible. I cannot stress how bad a decision it would be to decide the 2nd CD race in Sioux City! The turnout from our district will be greatly suppressed if Siouxland is the choice.

Krusty Konservative also warned yesterday that many Republican delegates will not bother to attend a state convention in Sioux City.

Mariannette Miller-Meeks had a hard time uniting second district Republicans even after winning the 2008 primary. Be prepared for lasting hard feelings if a small group of party activists ends up choosing the GOP nominee in IA-02 or IA-03 this year. King wasn’t hurt by his path to the nomination in 2002, but he was fortunate to be running in heavily Republican IA-05. In contrast, Boswell’s district leans slightly Democratic (D+1) and Dave Loebsack’s district leans strongly Democratic (D+7).

P.S.- I took my kids to see a game at the Iowa girls’ state basketball tournament on Wednesday. A bunch of teams in the Des Moines metro area made the 4A quarterfinals. I noticed that NRCC “on the radar” candidate Jim Gibbons had an ad scrolling occasionally (nothing special, just “Jim Gibbons for Congress, www.gibbonsforcongress.com”). Unfortunately for him, the teams from Republican-leaning Ankeny and Johnston were eliminated in the quarter-finals, so their fans who live in IA-03 won’t be back to see more of the Gibbons ads later this week. Des Moines East advanced to the semis, but I don’t think many GOP primary voters live on the east side of Des Moines. The other teams in the semis are Linn-Mar and Cedar Rapids Kennedy (IA-02) and Waukee (IA-04). Gibbons raised more money in 2009 than the other IA-03 Republican candidates combined.

Retiring Dems Hoard $33 Million As Their Party Is in Need

There’s one silver lining for party committees when it comes to retirements: Departing incumbents typically have a bundle of scrilla saved up that they can, if they’re so inclined, donate in bulk to their party’s House and Senate campaign arms. (They can also make normal, FEC-limited donations to other campaigns, or give the money to charity.) With all the retirements on both sides, there’s a lot of money floating out there, so let’s take a look at who’s got the bucks.

First up, the House. We’ve compiled cash-on-hand figures for all members who are not running for re-election or have resigned this cycle, with one exception (more on that below):

District	Incumbent	Status	CoH
AL-07	Artur Davis	Running for governor	$42,889
AR-01	Marion Berry	Retiring	$572,803
AR-02	Vic Snyder	Retiring	$4,182
CA-10	Ellen Tauscher	Resigned	$0
CA-32	Hilda Solis	Resigned	$227,097
CA-33	Diane Watson	Retiring	$72,727
FL-19	Robert Wexler	Resigned	$637,967
HI-01	Neil Abercrombie	Running for governor	$453,188
IL-05	Rahm Emanuel	Resigned	$1,179,094
KS-03	Dennis Moore	Retiring	$443,115
RI-01	Patrick Kennedy	Retiring	$451,740
TN-06	Bart Gordon	Retiring	$1,239,633
TN-08	John Tanner	Retiring	$1,421,767
WA-03	Brian Baird	Retiring	$551,665
		Total:	$7,297,867

We haven’t listed members running for Senate because they can (and generally do) transfer all of their House money over to their Senate campaigns. However, depending on state law, members running for other office (such as governor) may or may not be able to port over their House warchests. Two Dems fall into that category. As you can surmise from the CoH totals, Alabama law permitted Artur Davis to switch his federal money over to his state account.

Neil Abercrombie wasn’t so lucky. He had hoped to do the same, but a state committee barred him from doing so back in August. Abercrombie has managed to whittle his account down by half since then (he has refunded many of his donors’ contributions), but if he’s looking to do his colleagues in the House a solid, he can give the balance to the DCCC.

A special comment must be made here about ex-Rep. Robert Wexler, who announced back in October that he was stepping down from Congress in order to pursue other opportunities. At the end of September, Wexler had nearly a million dollars in the bank. Since then, he went on a $310,000 spending spree, rewarding consultants, pollsters, fundraisers, and other campaign associates with some very generous payments. Wexler did give a handful of donations to some of his former colleagues, but he failed to give a dime to the DCCC. Robert Wexler is shamefully letting his party down by not putting his ample campaign account to productive use at his party’s greatest hour of need. If he doesn’t want this to become a permanent black mark on his record, this attitude needs to change.

That said, let’s not let Rahm Emanuel off the hook, either – he’s hoarding over a million bucks in his dormant House account, no doubt waiting to use that nest egg for an eventual return to elected office. But if Rahm is serious about serving his President’s agenda, he might want to consider cutting a generous check to DCCC. In a year like this, we can’t afford to have guys like Rahm holding back. Does Rahm Emanuel even care about retaining control of the House of Representatives?

House Republicans:

District	Incumbent	Status	CoH
AZ-03	John Shadegg	Retiring	$111,903
CA-19	George Radanovich	Retiring	$192,558
FL-12	Adam Putnam	Running for FL Ag. Comm’r	$38,289
FL-21	Lincoln Diaz-Balart	Retiring	$259,473
GA-09	Nathan Deal	Running for governor	$0
IN-04	Steve Buyer	Retiring	$400,069
MI-02	Peter Hoekstra	Running for governor	$33,385
MI-03	Vern Ehlers	Retiring	$489,646
NY-23	John McHugh	Resigned	$124,572
OK-05	Mary Fallin	Running for governor	$84,084
SC-01	Henry Brown	Retiring	$724,324
SC-03	Gresham Barrett	Running for governor	$268,121
TN-03	Zach Wamp	Running for governor	$222,931
		Total:	$2,949,355

Republicans have slimmer pickings, but that still adds up to nearly $3 million that the NRCC would love to poach out of these idle accounts. Let’s hope these members take after Rahm!

Senate Dems:

State	Senator	Status	CoH
CO	Ken Salazar	Resigned	$1,320,792
CT	Chris Dodd	Retiring	$3,439,831
IL	Roland Burris	Retiring	$1,938
IN	Evan Bayh	Retiring	$12,987,399
ND	Byron Dorgan	Retiring	$4,226,616
NY	Hillary Clinton	Resigned	$3,637,036
		Total:	$25,613,612

Yep – $25.6 million (including Clinton’s presidential account), with the biggest chunk of that coming from Evan Bayh. You’d think that Bayh, after putting his party in a bind with his surprise retirement decision, might feel compelled to share some of his resources to the DSCC, but the man is a notorious miser. Perhaps this time, though, he can be shamed into making a meaningful contribution to the Democratic cause.

Senate Republicans:

State	Senator	Status	CoH
FL	Resigned	Mel Martinez	$317,422
KS	Running for governor	Sam Brownback	$4,547
KY	Retiring	Jim Bunning	$422,122
MO	Retiring	Kit Bond	$575,860
NH	Retiring	Judd Gregg	$752,956
OH	Retiring	George Voinovich	$1,622,168
		Total:	$3,695,075

While the Republicans have less to work with there, $3.7 million isn’t exactly chump change. The bottom line, though, is that Democrats are facing an incredibly tough election environment, and departing House & Senate Dems are sitting on an enormous $33 million stockpile. They need to help their party now.

House 2010 Midterms – More than just defense.

Whilst the Massachusetts Senate Special and a series of dodgy house polls have Democrats convinced that the November midterms will be apocalyptic; the fact is that a number of Republican held House districts are in fact vulnerable to a takeover from Democratic challengers.

How many?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

***This diary should be read in conjunction with the diary by Silver Spring***

There are 5 groups of races that are or might become or potentially should be competitive in November. They include Obama Republican districts, districts with very good candidates and districts of a Republican PVI of R+4 and less.

The first ten races below are ranked in order of probability of takeover. These races WILL be competitive in November.

1. DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,

Stick a fork in this one it is done.

With Castle running for the Senate does anyone really think there is a Republican in Delaware who can hold this district for the GOP? Especially as the Democratic Party currently leads in voter reg – 288,380 to 180,620.

With Carney sitting on a 100/1 Cash on hand advantage as at the end of December and the only poll available showing Carney with a 23 point lead this 62% Obama district is certain to end up in the Democratic column in November.

2. LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

Incumbent GOP Rep Anh Cao has one thing and one thing alone going for him – a Cash on Hand advantage of $91K as at the end of December – $316K-$225K.

Every other indicator tells us that presumptive Democratic nominee State Rep Cedric Richmond will steamroll his way through this race in November.

After all Obama got no less than 75% of the vote in this D+25 district. Also there are 237,103 registered Democrats and only 39,753 registered Republicans. And lastly of course, we can all remember how Cao only won in 2008 courtesy of an awfully corrupt Democratic incumbent – Bill Jefferson.

Cao is toast.

3. IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,

With Republican Dold and Democrat Seals emerging from competitive primaries this open District race is definitely on the radar for 2010.

Dold leads in COH $198K/$145K (as at 13th January) but Seals has the rolodex to crank up the fundraising on his 3rd attempt at the district, particularly if supporters of his vanquished primary opponent – Julie Hamos – circle the wagons and pitch in (she did raise over $1 mill). To this point Seals has outraised Dold too.

Seals will win here for two interlinked reasons:

1) Obama got 61% of the vote here in 2008.

2) Dold is just not moderate enough to attract crossover votes the way Mark Kirk did.

– I should note I volunteered for Seals in 2008 and am ridiculously biased.

4. PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,

With Gerlach back in the race (but flat broke (and his aborted Gubernatorial race was flat broke too at the end) this one will be the focus of much attention.

Presumptive nominee Doug Pike has more than $1 Mill COH as at 31st December, although it is largely self funded. BTW at this stage in 2008 Gerlach had raised almost $1.5 mill and still almost lost 52%/48% over a 2nd tier candidate.

This D+4, 58% Obama district (that also voted for Kerry like all of my top 6 races) is at worst a 50/50 pick up chance.

5. PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

For the first time Dent has a serious top tier opponent. Having dispatched a serious of 2nd tier candidates Dent is in for the race of his life in 2010. Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan seems to be the real deal. As well as already being a public official Callahan has in the last quarter outraised Dent and they are basically equal in

COH.

Dent must be worried as his campaign released a very dodgy internal poll showing him leading 58%/27% but refused to release the internals to go with it (a sure sign of bodgy polling)as is the claimed Obama approval rating of 41% compared to a Pennsylvania wide 57% (According to Gallup). Obama won this district in 2008 56%/43%.

Callahan has a shot here. Either way it will be competitive.

6. WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,

Washingtons’ 8th congressional district is one of a handful that are on the perennial target list for Democrats that we didn’t win in 2006 or 2008. Will 2010 be the year? Yeh quite possibly.

Obama carried this one 56%/42% in 2008 whilst Reichert was held to 52.78% by Darcy Burner.

So far so good.

As at the end of December Democrat Delbene led the COH race $773,327/$477,149 and had raised to that point $1,047,873 to Reicherts’$985,665. Whilst almost half of Delbenes’ total came from a loan from herself to the campaign she has shown herself to be adept at fundraising from others. Yep we have a self funder who can also fundraise.

Watch this one on election night – very closely.

7. CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

Well whoever would have thunk it; CA-03 as a competitive race!

Democrat Amri has just come off a $249K fundraising quarter and has more COH than Republican Lungren ($739K/$526K), who only raised $138K. At this point in the cycle Amri has outraised Lungren as well ($871K/$732K).

Add to this the facts that Obama won the district 49.3%/48.8%, Lungren only won in 2008 by 49.49%/43.93% and the voter registration advantage for the GOP has decreased from 6.6% in 2006 to near parity (38.46%/39.04%)as of the start of 2010 and we have a race on our hands.

This one will be very interesting come November.

8. NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

Yep hard to believe that a congressional district in Nebraska could be competitive but the 2nd shall be so. Remember that Obama carried this Omaha based district 50%/49% and the makings are there for a good race. State Senator Tom White is quite an adept fundraiser for a challenger too. After a 180K December quarter he has $343K COH compared to incumbent Republican Terry’s $543K COH. Given that challengers rarely lead the COH chase this one is set for a great race in November.

9. SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,

SC-02 will be know as the 2010 Moneybomb District! Why? because at the end of December incumbent Republican Joe “you lie” Wilson and his Democratic challenger Robert Miller have raised a breathtaking $5.5 Million between them. Wilson has $2,341,915 COH and Miller has $1,678,436 COH! To be honest Millers’ COH should by itself make this one competive.

However when you consider that Wilson was held to 53.74% in 2008 and that whilst McCain won easily 54%/45%, that is only 1% better than the neighbouring 5th, held by Democrat John Spratt and you have a barn burner in the making.

This race will be fascinating on election night – no doubt about it!

10. KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,

Despite its’ heavily Republican nature (McCain won here 58%/40%) this race will be competitive in November – absolutely.

Democrat Goyle is fundraising up a storm having raised $656K as at the end of December. His closest rival – Republican Pompeo – has only raised $429K. Last quarter Goyle managed a staggering (for a Kansas Democrat) $253K for the quarter and currently has $583K COH; a fair effort to say the least. Pompeo meanwhile managed only $78K for a COH total of $318K. Republican Kelsey FWIW, despite an impressive 233K quarter, has only $40K COH!

Love to see a poll here but definitely one to watch on election night.

This second group of Districts are likely to be competitive in November but are not there yet:

AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,

Democrat Joshua Segall had a $100K December quarter and is behind in COH by only $216K/$392K.

He ran in 2008 and kept Rogers to 46%/54% as McCain carried the District 56%/43%.

Not a friendly district for Democrats but if Segall can file some 6 figure fundraising quarters then this race could well be up there in November.

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

Democratic candidate (and Palm Springs Mayor) Stephen Pougnet is on the cusp of a very competitive challenge to GOP incumbent Mary Bono Mack – finally a top tier candidate here.

Obama carried this district 51.5%/46.9% and the GOP registration gap has shrunk from 10% to 3.48% between 2006 and the start of this year – 38.02%/41.50% currently.

The only fly in the ointment (apart from the national political environment!) is of course fundraising. Whilst Pougnet has outraised Bono Mack in two of the last three quarters and has slightly then than half as much COH as her $402K/$893K his COH actually went backwards by 10K last quarter despite a $150K quarter. Pougnet just needs a good solid $200K March Quarter IMHO to cash him up for the stretch and make this race definitely competitive.

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart OPEN) – R+5,

With Mario Diaz-Balart bolting to run in the 21st to replace his retiring brother Lincoln this race will be one to watch.

McCain carried this one 50%/49% whilst Diaz-Balart was held to 53%. The Republican Voter registration advantage is only 3364; 137,913/134,549 as at the 2008 election. This is down from 21818 at the 21006 midterms.

Diaz-Balart had only $178K COH as at the end of December too BTW. Expect a top tier Dem to jump in here, maybe 2006 nominee Joe Garcia, and at that point this one should become competitive. The only Democrat currently running, Luis Rivera has yet to file a fundraising report having jumped in only a month or so ago.

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

Despite missing out on our preferred candidate State Sen Terri Bonoff there is every chance that this district that Obama carried 52%/46% in 2008 will be competitive. Democratic presumptive nominee Maureen Hackett only got into the race in October and self funded $103K of her $138K quarter ($129K COH). The March quarter will be telling but if as I suspect she has a really good go at fundraising up a storm this one will be competitive. The cloud on the horizon, of course, is incumbent Republican Paulsens’ $943K COH!

MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,

As luck would have it we have two viable candidates in this district that McCain carried 53%/45%.

Maureen Reed has 388K COH after a $208K December quarter.

Tarryl Clark (who I think will be the nominee) has yep $388K COH after a $294K December quarter. These are great numbers for both candidates. The only reason this one isn’t yet on the competitive list is batshit crazy Michelle Bachmanns’ $1 million COH!

If either Democrat can manage another $250K March quarter then this race is on for young and old despite its’ Republican bent.

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

Democratic candidate Brooks has her work cut out running against incumbent Republican Tiberi. He and his $1.2 mill COH! And his $449K December quarter haul. Brooks must we wondering what more she needs to do after her 4th quarter haul of $231K, leaving her with $328K COH – a very respectable set of numbers. Will this district that Obama carried 54%/44% be competitive in November? Dunno – but another 200K quarter will at least make Brooks (already a top tier challenger) quite viable.

Time will tell.

The third group of Districts are those that may, but are unlikely, to become competitive:

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

Obama won this district 49.5%/48.6% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 22% to a still whopping 15% as at Jan 1. That stat and Republican Campbells’ $1.031M/$171K COH advantage over Democrat Krom makes it unlikely that this race will become competitive. But it may. After all Krom has raised $299K so far this cycle including a reasonable but not great $90K in the December quarter. Campbell’s $500K December quarter makes it very tough though.

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

A 60K odd December quarter does not a competitive race make, especially when the COH only increases by $10K!. Busby has been beaten twice before by the current incumbent, and unfortunately seems headed that way again. Working in her favor is the fact that Obama carried the district 51.3%/47.1% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 14% in 2006 to 7.58% (39.91%/31.33%) as at the start of this year. However this will be a what might have been IMHO.

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

With former Democratic State Rep Shelley Madore only jumping in at the start of January this race has yet to solidify. On the down side is the fact that McCain carried this district 50%/48%. On the upside incumbent Republican Kline has (only!) $358K COH after a modest $152K December quarter.

Wait and see but it may be a bit late in the cycle for this one to fire up.

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

Yet another district where the Democratic candidate (Potosnak) has only just got into the race so it may take some time for things to play out. Obama carried this district 50%/49% and Leonard has only $347K COH (not a lot for a congressional race in New Jersey) and raised only 60K in the December quarter. Interestingly enough the Democrats have a 16K voter registration advantage here as at November 2009 – 121,553/105,943.

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

A $151K 4th quarter and $114K COH should be a promising start. Unless your opponent is the head of the NRCC and has $1.075 million COH. Oh dear.

Roggio seems to be quite a credible candidate but without a monster March quarter he just isn’t going to be in a position to be competitive in November.

McCain carried this district 53%/46% too btw – red but not ruby red.

And fourthly these districts have either 3rd tier candidates or candidates whose fundraising precludes a competitive race at this stage:

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

A 15K December quarter for leading Democrat Tim Allison means this one can’t be competitive; the resources simply aren’t there. This is all the more so given that Gallegly has $836K COH to Allison’s $35K . Pity because Obama carried this one 50.5%/47.7% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 10% to 5.75% (41.53%/35.78%) between 2006 and the start of this year.

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

Our candidate, 2008 nominee Jackie Conaway hasn’t even registered with the FEC – Game over.

Pity as Obama carried the district 49.4%/48.3% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined to 2% over the last 3 years!

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

2008 Democratic challenger Warner had a poor December quarter raising only 37K and his COH is only $123K compared to incumbent Republican Dreier’s $1.025 million! Obama won the district 51/47 and the GOP voter reg advantage has dropped from 11% to 4.5% as of the start of 2010.

Despite that the COH gap and Warners’ poor December fundraising means this one is unlikely to be competitive this November alas.

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

Obama won this district 49.3%/48.6% and the GOP voter reg advantage has decreased from 15% in 2006 to 8% as at Jan 5th 2010. Competitive race right? Wrong. Democrat Hedrick who only lost in 2008 48.8/51.2 just can’t seem to crank up the fundraising. Having raised only 29K in the December quarter he now trails in the COH race $95K/$519K.

Such a shame.

FL-10 (Young) – R+1,

State Sen Charlie Justice – what a great name for a congressional candidate – is the best candidate that the Democrats have run against republican incumbent Bill Young in years and years. It is such a pity then that Justices’ fundraising is so poor – $59K last quarter and $91K COH.

This is a District that should be competitive; Obama carried it 52%/47% and the Repub voter reg advantage declined from 169,982/153,728 in 2006 to 170,749/164,400 in 2008.

Alas but for that poor fundraising.

FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,

Democrat Lori Edwards won’t make this a competitive election with a $26K December quarter ($60K COH). This is all the more so given that presumptive Republican nominee Dennis Ross has $273K COH as at the end of December after an admittedly poor December quarter; raising only $76K himself.

This is a pity given that McCain only carried the District 50/49 and the Democratic voter reg advantage INCREASED from 2006 – 2008 from 153,189/166,794 to 164,780/192,958. WOW

As an open seat this one will almost certainly be a what might have been in November unless Edwards can seriously step up her fundraising.

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

The Democratic candidate Shannon Roberts has not filed a fundraising report despite filing to run over a year ago. Game over.

Pity as this 51%/48% McCain district, with it s’ repidly decreasing GOP voter reg advantage (189,872/158,363 – 2006 199,669/183,100 – 2008) should really have been competitive. Oh well.

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

The race has not yet really taken shape in this district that Obama carried 56%/43%. Democratic challenger Ben Lowe filed for the race halfway through November and raised a scant $14K. Republican incumbent Roskam on the other hand after a $350K December quarter is sitting on $547K.

We really won’t know whether this will be competitive or not until after the March fundraising filings come in. I suspect it won’t as both parties will be focused on tussles in the 10th, 11th and 14th.

Maybe in 2012.

IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,

2008 Democratic nominee Harper is back in 2010 in this district that Obama carried 54%/44%.

Unfortunately a $42K December quarter ($90K COH) does not cut the mustard against Republican incumbent Biggert who had a $142K December quarter ($637K COH).

Harper is a good, credible candidate who kept Biggert to 53% in 2008. Unless he has a monster March quarter this one just isn’t going to be competitive in November.

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

Whilst Obama carried this district 53%/46% this one only just scraped in as a potentially competitive race. And it won’t be with Democrat Gaulrapp raising a scant $14K ($7K COH) in the December quarter. Manzullo raised $150K ($355K COH) in the same period.

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

This race is really still just coming together. However that Democrat Maske managed to fundraise only $12K in the last 2 months of 2009 I think we can safely predict another cakewalk for Republican Latham in this district that Obama won 53%/46%. BTW as at Feb 1st the Democrats had a 8000 voter registration advantage 126503/118484.

MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,

Incumbent Republican McCotter has been on Democratic target lists for years in this 54%/45% Obama district. He was even held to 51% in 2008. Despite this the Democrats have always failed to get a top tier opponent against him. Will 2010 be the year? It is hard to tell honestly but i doubt it. When Democrat Mosher declared at the start of 2009 she struck me (and the party) as being at best 2nd tier.

And this turns out to be the likely case with Mosher raising only $37K in the December quarter ($44K COH) compared to McCotters’ $118K December quarter ($579K) COH. Lets see what the March quarter reports bring but don’t hold your breath.

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

With McCain just shading Obama by less than 1% this District should be competitive. But it is unlikely. Whilst 2008 Democratic candidate O’Neill is back for another shot he did get thumped by alomost 20% in 2008. The other Democrat in the race – Greene – hasn’t even registered with the FEC to fundraise despite being in the race since November. Whilst LaTourette only has a modest $447K COH as at the end of November this race is highly unlikely to be a show stopper.

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

Another perennial Democratic target sees no less than 4 Democrats running here in 2010. And it is no wonder as Obama carried the district 53%/46% and this part of Virginia is rapidly bluing. Incumbent Republican Wolf has nothing to fear here though, as none of his putative opponents have more than $6K COH as at the end of December compared to Wolfs’ $346K COH. A really disappointing miss for team blue.

WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,

Democratic challenger Garin has $546 COH as at the end of December; incumbent Republican Ryan has $1.565 million. Game over in this 51%/47% Obama district.

The last group of Districts are those that at this stage do not seem likely to competitive.

as we do not have declared Democratic candidates as yet!

FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,

MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,

MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,

MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NY-03 (King) – R+4,

VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,

WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,

So in summary:

10 competitive races.

6 races that should become competitive.

5 races that may become competitive.

15 races that should be competitive but are highly unlikely to be so.

8 races that should be potentially become competitive but won’t be unless we find a candidate.

Not a particularly pretty scenario for Democrats but not nearly as terrible as the GOP and the traditional media would have you believe.

On to November!

Loading ...

4Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup

We were a bit delayed in getting this chart out, but here it is — a roundup of all the noteworthy fourth quarter fundraising numbers for House incumbents and challengers. (3Q numbers are here.)

IA-03: GOP primary developments

Seven-term Representative Leonard Boswell is only the 64th most vulnerable Democrat in the House of Representatives, according to Crisitunity’s “vulnerability index,” but Iowa Republicans still like their chances against him. Five candidates have already entered the GOP primary, and two others I’ve never heard of were reportedly collecting signatures on nominating petitions at the off-year caucuses on January 23. The field may expand before the filing deadline in March.

A few recent developments in the Republican primary race are after the jump.

Former Iowa State University wrestling coach Jim Gibbons is way ahead in the money race, thanks to support from heavy-hitters like ethanol baron Bruce Rastetter as well as a number of political action committees. After announcing his candidacy in November, Gibbons raised $207,310, spent $2,240 and ended the year with $205,069 on hand and $2,686 in debts owed. In the fourth quarter, he raised more money than Boswell, who collected $169,377, spent $50,643 and had $462,193 cash on hand as of December 31. (Most of Boswell’s fourth-quarter fundraising came from political action committees.)

Craig Robinson of the Iowa Republican blog has been promoting Gibbons’ candidacy for a while now, and he is ready to declare victory for Gibbons in the primary already, based on the fundraising numbers. However, Bleeding Heartland user mirage (a supporter of State Senator Brad Zaun) noted in the same thread, “About $51,000 of Gibbons funds will be restricted (meaning they can’t be used against Zaun in a primary), and about $130,000 came from outside the 3rd district.”

Speaking of Zaun, he raised $30,600 during the fourth quarter, spent $93 and ended 2009 with $30,507 on hand. Presumably he has raised more money since January 1, because he made a television ad buy last week. It’s generic Republican fare with low production values:

Zaun was the first up on television, but as Robinson noted triumphantly, “Even if [Dave] Funk or Zaun raised $1000 everyday between now and the primary, they still wouldn’t match what Gibbons currently has in his campaign account.”

Funk, the IA-03 candidate favored by the Tea Party crowd, raised $22,685 in the fourth quarter, spent $19,553 and ended the year with $16,507 on hand. According to mirage, much of Funk’s remaining money is restricted for use after the primary. I don’t think he’ll be needing that.

Mark Rees, who is running as a more moderate Republican, raised $3,100 and loaned his own campaign $52,647. He spent $3,247 and ended the year with $52,500 and $52,647 in debts owed to himself. I don’t know how much of a moderate GOP base is left in the Des Moines suburbs, but if conservatives divide their support among three or four candidates, Rees could slip through.

Yesterday we learned about an internal poll of the GOP race, conducted by Victory Enterprises, campaign consultants for Zaun. I posted the whole polling memo from Victory Enterprises at Bleeding Heartland. The poll was conducted on January 27 and 28 and surveyed 400 Republicans in Iowa’s third Congressional district who are likely to vote in the June primary.

The poll shows 60 percent of respondents were undecided about whom to support in the primary. Zaun had 26 percent support, compared to 5 percent for Gibbons, 3.6 percent for Funk, 2.1 percent for Pat Bertroche and 1 percent for Rees. In Polk County, the population center of the district, 37.5 percent of respondents supported Zaun. His family has owned hardware stores in the Des Moines area, and he is a former mayor of Urbandale, a large suburb. His state senate district includes Urbandale and part of Des Moines.

About half the respondents hadn’t heard of Zaun. (This poll was in the field before his tv ad went up on January 29.) I was more surprised to see that 67.8 percent of respondents said they had never heard of Gibbons. His supporters have promoted him as almost a celebrity candidate, because he was the last person to lead Iowa State to a national championship in wrestling.

Several of the candidates will gain more name recognition in the coming months as they begin to advertise and hold campaign events around the districts. Gibbons clearly will have the resources for an extensive paid media campaign. National Republicans seem to have picked Gibbons already, which is one reason he’s pulled in so much out of state PAC money.

Robinson brings you the pro-Gibbons spin on Zaun’s internal poll at The Iowa Republican blog:

Zaun’s early activity is similar to that of another former Victory Enterprises client, 2008 2nd Congressional District candidate Peter Teahen. In May of 2008, Victory Enterprises polled the 2nd Congressional District. Teahen, the better known candidate from the largest county in the district, had a big lead in the poll.

In VE’s 2008 poll showed Peter Teahen with 36% of the vote, while Miller-Meeks had 14 percent, and Lee Harder netted 7.5 percent. Forty-one percent of likely GOP primary voters were undecided. Despite the Teahen’s early lead, Miller-Meeks won the primary by 218 votes.

The difference between the 2008 2nd District race and this year’s 3rd District primary is that Gibbons has created a huge fundraising advantage over his opponents. Thus far, Gibbons has not run any ads, sent mail, or paid for phone calls.

The money race between Teahen and Miller-Meeks in the primary was tight. While Miller-Meeks outraised her opponent, Teahen had the ability to loan his campaign a considerable amount of money. Gibbons has already raised more money in his first fundraising quarter than Miller-Meeks and Teahen spent combined in the 2nd District primary.

I agree with Robinson that this race is up for grabs with so many Republicans undecided and most of the candidates lacking name recognition. I also think Boswell will be re-elected, despite the Republican wave that may be coming. None of the GOP candidates seem impressive, and the eventual nominee will have little cash left after the primary.

House Vulnerability Index, Version 3

With January coming to a close, silly season on retirements is hopefully also winding down, giving us a pretty clear picture of the open seats on tap for November. With that in mind, let’s do one last version of the House Vulnerability Index, accounting for the wave (wavelet? small whitecap?) of Democratic retirements.

In case you missed the previous installments, I’ve been developing an index for predicting vulnerability for House members based on a mix of Charlie Cook’s PVI and previous House election performance. (It turned out to be pretty useful, in that 2006 numbers were pretty predictive of who actually got knocked off in 2008.) Here’s a quick recap of how it works. Check out the chart of vulnerable Democrats below, which indicates that Bobby Bright is in the worst shape. Bobby Bright had the 3rd narrowest margin of victory of any Democrat (0.6%, behind only Tom Perriello at 0.2% and Scott Murphy at 0.4% in the NY-20 special), and he’s in the district with the 4th worst PVI of any Democrat (R+16, behind only Chet Edwards, Gene Taylor, and Walt Minnick). Add them up for a raw vulnerability score of 7, the worst of any Democrat. Slightly below him you might notice that LA-03 gets a margin of 0 (despite that Charlie Melancon won unopposed in 2008); that’s the tweak that I perform for all open seats. With PVI alone (R+12, 13th worst of any Dem-held seat), the raw score is 13, good for 3rd place.

You might remember that in November’s installment, I expanded the Democratic list to 50, reflecting the GOP’s success at expanding the playing field. Well, I’ve expanded it again this time, up to 75, not just to accommodate the new red open seats that previously weren’t on the list because their entrenched inhabitants had won against little or no opposition in 2008, but also to acknowledge that the danger zone is starting to seep up above 50. Again, not to say that actual losses will be above 50, just that there may be some potential losses up that high on the list. (Eagle-eyed observers will also notice that many of the numbers have shifted down 1 since the previous installment. That’s because I’m no longer counting AL-05 among Dem seats, thanks to Parker Griffith’s switch.)

District	Rep.	Margin rating	PVI rating	Total
AL-02	Bright	3	4	7
ID-01	Minnick	6	3	9
TN-06	Open	0	10	10
LA-03	Open	0	12	12
MD-01	Kratovil	5	11	16
AR-01	Open	0	21	21
TX-17	Edwards, C.	20	1	21
TN-08	Open	0	30	30
MS-01	Childers	27.5	7	34.5
VA-05	Perriello	1	37	38
NY-29	Massa	7	35	42
AR-02	Open	0	41	41
KS-03	Open	0	48	48
NY-20	Murphy, S.	2	52	54
VA-02	Nye	16.5	39	55.5
GA-08	Marshall	41	15	56
PA-10	Carney	37	19	56
PA-03	Dahlkemper	9	49	58
PA-04	Altmire	33	28	61
MI-07	Schauer	8	55	63
AZ-05	Mitchell	24	42	66
FL-08	Grayson	13	53	66
NM-02	Teague	35	33	68
TN-04	Davis, L.	60	9	69
NY-24	Arcuri	13	56	69
CO-04	Markey, B.	36	34	70
WA-03	Open	0	73	73
OH-16	Boccieri	29.5	47	76.5
AZ-01	Giffords	34	43	77
OH-15	Kilroy	4	74	78
NY-23	Owens	13	65	78
AZ-01	Kirkpatrick	48	31	79
ND-AL	Pomeroy	66	14	80
OH-18	Space	58	23	81
IN-09	Hill	56	26	82
WI-08	Kagen	21	61	82
NJ-03	Adler	15	69	84
TX-23	Rodriguez	39	46	85
NC-08	Kissell	29.5	58	87.5
UT-02	Matheson	84	5	89
NH-01	Shea-Porter	19	71	90
CA-11	McNerney	27.5	63	90.5
FL-24	Kosmas	47	44	91
SC-05	Spratt	67	24	91
OH-01	Driehaus	16.5	77	93.5
FL-02	Boyd	64	32	96
NH-02	Open	0	96	96
NC-11	Shuler	69.5	27	96.5
PA-07	Open	0	98	98
FL-22	Klein	22	76	98
MO-04	Skelton	94.5	6	100.5
NV-03	Titus	18	83	101
NY-19	Hall	51	50	101
CO-03	Salazar	63	40	103
PA-17	Holden	74	29	103
MI-09	Peters	23	82	105
KY-06	Chandler	87.5	18	105.5
IL-14	Foster	44	62	106
IN-08	Ellsworth	87.5	20	107.5
PA-11	Kanjorski	10	101	111
PA-12	Murtha	45	68	113
TX-27	Ortiz	57	60	117
VA-11	Connolly	32	85	117
IA-03	Boswell	40	78	118
NY-01	Bishop, T.	49.5	70	119.5
NY-13	McMahon	75	45	120
SD-AL	Herseth Sandlin	107	17	124
OR-05	Schrader	46	79	125
CT-04	Himes	11	114	125
PA-08	Murphy, P.	43	84	127
WV-03	Rahall	102.5	25	127.5
IL-08	Bean	61	67	128
NY-25	Maffei	38	90	128
IL-11	Halvorson	65	66	131
NM-01	Heinrich	31	108	139

As always, some of these names that are high up the list may not be in much danger: Scott Murphy and Jim Marshall, for instance, are still lacking first (or second-)tier opposition. And some of the higher-up names are, as we’ve seen, already in grave danger: Steve Driehaus and Dina Titus, up in the 40s, have seen some alarming polls. This is just a rough guide, looking at the various Reps. relative to one another.

Now let’s turn to the vulnerable GOP seats. The only change here is that PA-06 has become less vulnerable for the GOP, seeing as how Rep. Jim Gerlach came back to it. It doesn’t change much, though; given his lame performance in 2008, he’s still the (UPDATE: second) most vulnerable incumbent (although that’s largely by virtue of the Republicans having almost no other vulnerable incumbents). None of the other newly-minted GOP-held open seats comes even close to being interesting (CA-19 is closest, with a vulnerability index of 70).

You might be wondering where Parker Griffith is these days. Even if you bumped his margin rating down to 0 (since he’s basically starting from scratch), his R+12 district is #102 among Republicans, so he’s nowhere near this vulnerability list. (His vulnerability in the primary, of course, is a whole ‘nother matter, but I don’t purport to measure that.) You might also notice that I’ve shortened the list down to 10 here. Frankly, with a few possible exceptions (PA-15, MN-06), there’s really not much to see here beyond the top 10.

District	Rep.	Margin rating	PVI rating	Total
DE-AL	Open	0	2	2
IL-10	Open	0	3	3
LA-02	Cao	5	1	6
PA-06	Gerlach	9	4	13
WA-08	Reichert	16	5	21
MI-11	McCotter	17	11	28
CA-50	Bilbray	11	23	34
MN-03	Paulsen	22	12	34
FL-12	Open	0	41	41
OH-12	Tiberi	34	8	42