Tag: House

Now that the dust has settled on the Massachusetts Senate Special (ugh) it is time to turn our minds back to candidate filing.

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

Candidate filing has closed in Kentucky and West Virginia with a full slate for both parties (boring but true)!

For the Democrats:

KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,

KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,

KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,

KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,

WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,

And for the GOP:

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,

WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,

WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,

So for those of us that take notice of these things the progressive totals in states where candidate filing has closed is 6 Unopposed GOP House Reps and 2 unopposed Democratic House Reps.

And finally candidate filing season is open in Indiana. If you assume that all House incumbents recontest then as of the posting of this diary we have candidates in every district except the 3rd & 6th and the GOP every district but the 7th.

The next two states up after that are New Mexico and Ohio.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has been trying to get 14-term incumbent Rick Boucher (D, VA-09) to retire, but he disappointed them today:

“I am planning to seek reelection. I have given no consideration to retiring,” Boucher said in a statement Wednesday. “While I never make political announcements this early in the year, due to the press inquires we are receiving, it is time to remove any doubt anyone has about my intentions.”

Holding this R+11 district would be a challenge if the seat opened up, but most election forecasters don’t expect Boucher to have any trouble.

If Republicans do recruit a prominent challenger to run in this district, Boucher’s vote for the Waxman-Markey American Clean Energy and Security Act last June will probably become a major issue in the campaign. Coal interests are big employers in Boucher’s district. He backed the climate change bill after securing amendments to make sure that coal usage would continue to grow between now and 2020 even if the bill became law.

Representative Leonard Boswell (D, IA-03) has introduced a constitutional amendment in response to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in the Citizens United case. (Read the ruling and many reactions and commentaries at the SCOTUS blog.)

Boswell is looking for co-sponsors and explained the case for amending the constitution:

“I have introduced this important legislation because the Supreme Court’s ruling strikes at the very core of democracy in the United States by inflating the speech rights of large, faceless corporations to the same level of hard-working, every day Americans,” Boswell said in a statement. “The court’s elevation of corporate speech inevitably overpowers the speech and interests of human citizens who do not have the coffers to speak as loudly.”

Boswell said House Joint Resolution 68 would disallow a corporation or labor organization from using any operating funds or any other funds from its general treasury to pay for an advertisement in connection with a federal election campaign, regardless of whether or not the advertisement expressly advocates the election or defeat of a specified candidate.

“Corporations already have an active role in American political discourse through million-dollar political action committees and personal donations to campaigns,” Boswell said. “The legislation I introduced will prevent the Wall Street corporations that received billions in taxpayer bailout dollars from turning around and pouring that same money into candidates that will prevent financial regulation on their industry. No American should have to turn on the TV and see AIG telling them how to vote.”

Five Republicans are running against seven-term incumbent Boswell in this D+1 district. Most Iowa observers consider Brad Zaun and Jim Gibbons the front-runners. Dave Funk has the backing of the Tea Party crowd, and I love his tweets that begin, “Congress needs Funk.” Mark Rees is staking out a moderate position, and I have no idea what Pat Bertroche is doing in this race.

Texas candidate filing has now closed.

As you may already be aware there are a number of uncontested Republican Congresscritters.

And that sucks – big time.

Below the fold to see exactly what you (if you live in Texas) can do about it.

(Cross posted here, there and everywhere)

As is the case every election cycle there are a number of Republican Congressmen unopposed as at the end of candidate filings.

This year there are 7, more than any other in recent times!

They are as follows:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

This is unfortunate to say the least.

However given the ludicrously easy ballot laws in Texas being a write in candidate is as easy as submitting 500 signatures of registered voters in your congressional district of choice and voila – away you go. Seems too easy? Well it is that easy!  

So come on who has the cojones to take on a Republican on their home turf, thus inhibiting their ability to lend an assist to Repubs in close races?

Your thoughts?

I don’t know why Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post keeps suggesting that Representative Leonard Boswell is a retirement risk for Democrats. True, Republicans have been trying to pressure him to call it quits, but I haven’t heard any Democrat around here express concerns about it.

According to Radio Iowa’s Kay Henderson, Boswell told a “small group of reporters” on Monday, “I’m running.”

Five Republicans have already announced plans to run in Iowa’s third Congressional district, and three of them have started hiring campaign staff.

It seems we’ll get a mini-test of the “tea party” phenomenon in the IA-03 Republican primary. Two contenders have significant backing in the Republican establishment: various elected officials are supporting State Senator Brad Zaun, while a bunch of major donors are supporting Jim Gibbons.

Long-shot candidate Dave Funk was the first Republican to step up against Boswell, and he just hired Iowa Tea Party Chairman Ryan Rhodes as his political director. I assume that Funk will not be able to raise enough money to compete with Zaun and Gibbons, and that there aren’t several thousand central Iowa teabaggers for him to pull out of his hat.

Whoever wins the June primary, the GOP will need something better than the tired rhetoric they’ve thrown at Boswell lately to win this D+1 district.

Texas candidate filing has now closed.

How are the parties going vis-a-vis recruiting candidates to run in all 32 House Districts?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Swing State Project, MyDD and Open Left)

The Texas Congressional House delegation is currently split 20/12 in favor of the GOP.

All incumbents have refiled for all 32 Districts.

So onto challenger filings.

First the bad news and there is no way to sugarcoat this – The GOP have a full slate, many with multiple candidates. Yep all 12 Dem held Districts have GOP candidates:

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

And for Democrats the news isn’t great.

We have confirmed candidates in only 13 of 20 GOP held Districts:

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

And in the other 7 GOP held districts it seems that there is no candidate:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

This is unfortunate to say the least.

Remember that in 2008 we did not run candidates in 6 districts:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

One potential snafu is that it seems that Grier Raggio is not listed as filed in TX-32. Given that there were media stories about him filing on December 30th I expect that he will bob up on the TX Dems list in the next day or two. There are also 2 Dem candidates listed without a race so we will see where they end up too.

A disappointing but not surprising effort from the Texas Democratic Party. Whilst write-in candidates are possible this is highly unlikely if past cycles are any judge.

How can we expect to win the Governors race when 1/3rd of Republican Texan Congresscritters will not have a Democrat running against them in November?

** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

With the midterms only 10 months away it is time now to cast our eyes over the biggest state in the country – California.

How will we fare in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

All of the doom and gloom amongst naysayers about our chances in this years midterms simply does not tally when we drill down into race by race analysis in California.

For a start I think that all 34 Democratic incumbents are as safe as houses – yep including McNerney in the 11th and Sanchez in the 47th.

So what about all 19 Republican held districts?

Here we go:

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

Obama/McCain – 42.7/55

Kerry/Bush – 36.6/62

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 33.12/45.09

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 33.81/43.18

House result 2008 (D/R)- 42.1/57.9

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+11 district next year that we don’t already hold?

We don’t even have a candidate yet.

Enough said.

CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

Obama/McCain – 49.2/48.7 (1592 Votes!)

Kerry/Bush – 40.8/58.2

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 36.14/42.70

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 37.73/39.58

House result 2008 (D/R)- 44/49.5

This one is definitely going to be competitive!

Bera led the COH race as at end of September 585K/446K – an impressive effort indeed. With all other Democratic candidates withdrawing and endorsing him and with a rapidly closing Voter reg gap this district will be the scene of a torrid race. Note also that Obama narrowly carried it.

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

Obama/McCain – 43.9/54

Kerry/Bush – 37.4/61.3

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 30.28/47.86

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 31.14/45.83

House result 2008 (D/R)- 49.7/50.3

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don’t already hold? Especially as we don’t have a candidate yet and 2006/8 nominee Charlie Brown is definitely not running.

Enough said.

CA-19 (Radanovich OPEN) – R+9,

Obama/McCain – 46/52.1

Kerry/Bush – 37.9/61.1

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 36.09/46.73

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 37.19/43.62

House result 2008 (D/R)- Unopposed

Our candidates are seriously 2nd tier and need to step up massively if this is to be competitive. Do we have a State Rep who can run?

CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,

Obama/McCain – 42.1/56.3

Kerry/Bush – 33.7/65.4

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 33.84/49.55

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 34.89/46.76

House result 2008 (D/R)- 31.6/68.4

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+13 district next year that we don’t already hold?

We don’t even have a candidate yet.

Enough said.

CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,

Obama/McCain – 38.3/59.7

Kerry/Bush – 31/67.9

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 30.06/51.21

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 31.29/48.31

House result 2008 (D/R)- Unopposed

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+16 district next year that we don’t already hold?

We don’t even have a candidate yet.

Enough said.

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

Obama/McCain – 50.5/47.7

Kerry/Bush – 43.1/55.7

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 34.15/44.12

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 35.83/41.82

House result 2008 (D/R)- 41.8/58.2

This one should be competitive but one of our candidates needs to put the foot down on the fundraising pedal. Is there a top tier candidate out there?

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

Obama/McCain – 49.4/48.3

Kerry/Bush – 39.9/58.8

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 34.52/43.76

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 37.77/39.29

House result 2008 (D/R)- 42.2/57.8

This one too should be competitive but either Conaway fundraises like crazy or we get a better candidate.

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

Obama/McCain – 51/47

Kerry/Bush – 43.7/55.1

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 33.54/44.42

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 35.67/40.50

House result 2008 (D/R)- 40.4/52.7

On paper this should be right up there but is Warner the guy to do it?

If so better start raising the dough.

CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,

Obama/McCain – 46.6/51.1

Kerry/Bush – 38.4/60.2

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 32.04/46.78

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 33.86/42.75

House result 2008 (D/R) – 37.4/62.6

No Candidate no chance. Simple really. Even with a good candidate it is a tough district.

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

Obama/McCain – 43.7/54.2

Kerry/Bush – 36.9/61.8

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 32.18/47.80

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 34.12/44.20

House result 2008 (D/R)- 38.3/61.7

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don’t already hold? Only if Lewis bails out owing to ethical “issues”!

Enough said.

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

Obama/McCain – 44.9/53.2

Kerry/Bush – 36.9/62

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 28.88/49.79

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 30.56/46.16

House result 2008 (D/R)- 39.8/60.2

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don’t already hold?

Enough said.

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

Obama/McCain – 49.5/48.6 (2532 Votes)

Kerry/Bush – 39.9/59

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 31.98/46.89

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 34.63/46.40

House result 2008 (D/R)- 48.8/51.2

Simple equation here. We have the candidate in Hedrick. If he can lift his fundraising game he may make a real of this. Remember he was the guy who delivered that 2008 result above.

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

Obama/McCain – 51.5/46.9

Kerry/Bush – 43.1/56

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 35.85/45.53

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 37.81/42.08

House result 2008 (D/R)- 41.7/58.3

Pougnet is the mayor of Palm Springs and this will be a zinger IMHO. His fundraising is going well (347K COH as at end of September) and he obviously has a very high local profile.

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

Obama/McCain – 47.9/49.8

Kerry/Bush – 41.6/56.9

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 30.49/46.84

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 32.02/43.49

House result 2008 (D/R)- 43.1/52.6

No candidate presently this one is at best a long shot.

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

Obama/McCain – 49.3/48.6 (2479 Votes)

Kerry/Bush – 40.4/58.3

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 27.13/49.32

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 29.40/44.77

House result 2008 (D/R)- 40.6/55.7

An intriguing district. Terribly low % of registered Dems and yet Obama won the district. Krom needs to put the foot down with her fundraising (126K COH as at end of September is not great) to make this an outside chance.

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

Obama/McCain – 45.1/53

Kerry/Bush – 36.5/62.5

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 28.50/47.96

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 30.94/43.86

House result 2008 (D/R)- 37.5/58.3

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+10 district next year that we don’t already hold?

Enough said.

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

Obama/McCain – 51.3/47.1

Kerry/Bush – 43.9/55.2

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 29.62/43.64

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 31.40/40.27

House result 2008 (D/R)- 45.2/50.3

We lost our best candidate here (Roberts), Busby is I think flawed and Emblem has yet to make a splash. And yet Obama won the district.

Either Emblem steps up her fundraising or we get a better candidate IMHO.

CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,

Obama/McCain – 45/53.4

Kerry/Bush – 37.7/61.4

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2006 – 29.87/45.66

Voter Reg (D/R)- 10/2009 – 31.41/42.90

House result 2008 (D/R)- 39/56.4

Does anyone think we are going to win a R+9 district next year that we don’t already hold?

We don’t even have a candidate yet.

Enough said.

So in summary:

Competitive race:

CA-03, CA-45

Competitive if fundraising steps up:

CA-44, CA-48

A chance if the candidate steps up their fundraising or we find a more viable candidate:

CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-50

Long shot:

CA-19, CA-40, CA-46

Forget it:

CA-02, CA-04, CA-21, CA-22, CA-41, CA-42, CA-49, CA-52.

Not bad 2 definitely competitive races and two more that could become so if our candidates step up the fundraising. Another 4 as well that could be competitive in the right circumstances. Not bad in an environment that is supposedly toxic for Democrats.

A last word also on the two supposedly vulnerable Democratic Districts:

CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,

The GOP lost their best candidate when Del Arroz withdrew. If presumptive frontrunner Grape Grower Brad Goehring makes it out of the torrid Primary (7 candidates and counting) he will still remain a 2nd tier candidate, albeit one that can self fund. McNerney will be waiting with his 675K COH as at end of September. Following from an 11 point victory last year and near parity in voter reg (in 2006 there was a 5% GOP edge) McNerney will be just fine.

CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,

Does anybody really think that a D+4 District is going to flip in California next year? The Tran/Pham GOP Primary promises to be a zinger and the winner gets to take on an incumbent who got 69% of the vote last year and has 769K COH as at the end of September as well as a 12% party reg gap.

This one ain’t gonna flip.

What say you?

Scott Eliott (ElectionProjection.com) is up with his first nationwide ’10 projections, and it isn’t so bad.

Eliott is a wingnut – but he’s as objective as they come w/r/t election data. For example, he called every Senate race correctly in ’06 and just missed 1 in ’08.

His numbers after ’10:

Senate: 56-42-2  (D -2)

House:  249-186  (D -8)

I believe would be depicted as a huge D victory, a virtual endorsement of President Obama’s agenda by a majority of the country.

Scott Elliot has his views, which I disagree with strongly. But he runs a clean site, free of the virtol associated with the typical Wingnut blog (perhaps except for the banner ads).

His record is stellar – he was right on 48 of the 50 states in the ’04 election (he switched IA and WI). He called all six of our Senate gains in ’06, with obvious pain in his words.

Eight days before election day ’08, he said

Eight days from Election Day, here is this blogger’s conclusion:  Barack Obama will win this election in a landslide.  He will capture at least 350 electoral votes and win the popular vote by 7% or more.

2010 details – w/r/t the Senate, he currently sees

D losses in DE, CO, CT

D gain in OH

w/r/t the House, the current projection shows

R gains in

AL-02, FL-08, ID-01, KS-03, LA-03, MD-01, NM-02, OH-15, PA-07, TN-06, TN-08, and VA-05

While I disagree with him w/r/t FL-08, there will be a lot of wingnut money flowing to whomever opposes Grayson this year.

Eliott also projects D gains in

DE-AL, IL-10, LA-02, PA-06

His formulas are interesting as well. http://www.electionprojection…. –

a quantitative formula based on polls and pundits.

He even uses partisan polls – but includes a 3% correction factor.

That the Northeast has been trending blue in recent cycles is self evidently true. Will it continue in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Whilst current polls don’t look too good for incumbent Democrats across the Northeast I believe that we have hit the bottom. Now that Health Care reform is done I believe that the polls will rebound for Democrats, particularly in the Northeast.

Thus it is my contention that despite the current challenging environment the Northeast will continue its long term move towards the Democratic Party, despite a sure to be spiteful debate on cap and trade and despite an economic outlook that is improving in fits and starts.

The US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:

States that voted for Obama: 9/9

Governors: 5/9

US Senators: 15/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)

House Districts: 69/83

State Senates: 8/9

State Houses: 9/9

Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying anything about it.

Going state by state then:

Connecticut

Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Jodi Rell not running again it is very likely to be a Dem pickup.

US Senate – Both Dems. If Dodd runs he may lose for any other Dem it is a safe hold.

US House – All Dem, all Safe (including Himes in the 4th.)

State Senate – 24D/12R – Safe

State House – 114D/37R – Safe

Maine

Gubernatorial – Whilst it seems that half of Maine is running for the open Gubernatorial mansion I believe that the Democratic nature of the state will lead to a Democratic retention.

US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 20D/15R – Safe (Margin is growing).

State House – 95D/55R – Safe

Massachusetts –

Gubernatorial – Whilst Deval Patrick really hasn’t set the world on fire the 2nd tier nature of his potential opponents should see him safely re-elected.

US Senate – Both Dems (at least after the upcoming special election.)

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 35D/5R – Safe

State House – 144D/16R – Safe

New Hampshire

Gubernatorial – Safe Dem

US Senate – definitely a race to watch. I will be stunned if Hodes loses here. Hodes has almost $1 million dollars COH and there is a divisive GOP primary in the offing also. New Hampshire, whilst less Blue than almost all of the other states in the North East, is not going to elect a Republican as US Senator in 2010.

US House –

NH-01 – There has been a lot of focus on both of the New Hampshire congressional races. I don’t get it to be honest – Shea Porter will win, not by much but she will win.

NH-02 – Again a lot of focus here including a lot of hand wringing about how vulnerable it is to switch. Not gonna happen folks. Gore, Kerry and Obama all won this district – Obama by 13 points – and we have a quality field of candidates  running AND a divisive GOP Primary. Lead Dem Ann McLane Kuster has 250K COH as at the end of September.

State Senate – 14/10 – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains. If this one flips it will be a bad night for us.

State House – 223D/176R – Safe

New Jersey

Gubernatorial – Repub – Not on ballot in 2010

US Senate – Both Dems

US House –

NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that Obama won 54/45 and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004.

NJ-03 – Adler is safe.

NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and Obama lost 47/52 so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.

NJ-05 – Unlikely to be on the radar in 2010.

NJ-07 – This district is winnable particularly with a freshman GOP incumbent. Obama carried it 51/48 also. Surprising then that there is no declared Dem candidate yet. Potentially a top tier race that will probably be a big miss for the DCCC.

NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.

State Senate – Up in 2011

State House – Up in 2011

New York

Gubernatorial – Safe for Cuomo.

US Senate – Gillibrand will get over the line against 3rd tier opponents and Schumer is Safe too.

US House –

NY-03 – Unless Suozzi or another top tier candidate emerges then this will be a big miss for the DCCC.

NY-13 – McMahon is safe.

NY-20 – Murphy will prevail – bet on it. He had almost 1 Mill COH at the end of September!

NY-23 – One of two really competitive races in Dem held districts in NY. I think Owens will prevail, especially against Hoffman.

NY-24 – After a scare in 2008 Arcuri will be safe.

NY-25 – Maffei is safe.

NY-26 – Unless a good candidate pops up this will be a big miss for the DCCC.

NY-29 – Massa has his work cut out for him – that’s for sure. But for me Massa by a nose. Why? When was the last time the NY GOP won a District off us? Massa’s 500K COH as at end of September will help too.

State Senate – 32D/30R – A chamber to watch – big time. I expect us to hang onto or increase our majority.

State House – 109D/41R – Safe

Pennsylvania

Gubernatorial – A real worry this one could flip.

US Senate – 2 Dems – Whoever emerges from the Dem primary will beat Toomey. The good folk of Pennsylvania wouldn’t be crazy enough to sent Toomey to the US Senate would they?

US House –

PA-03 – Dahlkemper will have her work cut out to win this District that Obama JUST lost. Race to watch.

PA-04 – Altmire will be safe.

PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.

PA-06 – Generic Dem beats generic Rep – Period. Doug Pike’s massive COH advantage (largely self funded) of 750K as at end of September should help him pull this one out.  

PA-07 – Not quite sure why so many people are predicting this will flip. Top tier candidates for both parties makes for a tough race but this district was won by Gore, Kerry and Obama. Add in a competitive GOP Primary and it is Dem for me.

PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.

PA-11 – Against Lou Barletta Kanjorski will be fine. Tough part of Pennsylvania for Democrats though.

PA-12 – Murtha is vulnerable but i expect him to survive (just).

PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Dem Callahan is a top tier challenger and is fundraising like one (325K COH as at end of Spetember).

PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.

PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.

PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010, unless Todd Platts lands the Government job he is chasing. Even then unlikely to be competitive.

State Senate – 20D/30R – Safe GOP

State House – 104D/99R – Definitely a chamber to watch.

Rhode Island

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited so either a Dem or former Repub Sen now Indy Lincoln Chaffee will be elected. The GOP bench here is terrible.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 35D/5R Safe

State House – 69D/6R Safe

Vermont

Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Douglas not running the GOP have scored their best possible candidate in Lt Gov Brian Dubie; who will lose to a Dem (unless the Progressive Party act as a spoiler).

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 28D/7R Safe

State House – 95D/48R Safe

So with 10 months until election day it is off to the races!

What do you think?

Candidate filing closes in just over a week, on January 4th.

How are the parties going vis a vis recruiting candidates to run in all 32 House Districts?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

The Texas Congressional House delegation is currently split 20/12 in favor of the GOP.

I think we can safely assume that both parties will file candidates (almost invariably the current incumbents) in the Districts that they currently hold.

So onto candidate filings.

First the bad news and there is no way to sugarcoat this – The GOP have a full slate, many with multiple candidates. Yep all 12 Dem held Districts have GOP candidates:

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

And for us Democrats the news does not get any better.

We have confirmed candidates in only 8 of 20 GOP held Districts:

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

And in the other 12 GOP held districts there is not even a rumoured candidate:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

This is a grim scenario to say the least. At this stage in 2007 we had confirmed and unconfirmed candidates in 12/19; this time 8/20.

I am not suggesting that we will not fill more of these districts but we are a long way behind. Remember that in 2008 we did not run candidates in 6 districts:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

So hop to it Texas Democrats we need more candidates filing NOW.

** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

***UPDATE***

We now have a candidate in the 14th!***