Tag: House

According to the Politico:

Democratic Rep. Chris Carney received a phone call Wednesday from Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) asking him to consider becoming a Republican, a top GOP official told POLITICO.

A spokesman for Carney declined to say if the congressman was considering such a switch.

“No further comment at this time,” said Carney spokesman Josh Drobnyk, who would only confirm that the call took place.

In a brief interview, McCain declined to offer details about the conversation.

“I just said, ‘Whatever you do, I know that you’ll make the right decision for the country,'” said the Arizonan.

Carney defeated Republican incumbent Don Sherwood in 2006. Pennsylvania’s 10th district has a PVI of R+8.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Martin tweeted today that Walt Minnick (ID-01) and Bobby Bright (AL-02) are not switching.

UPDATE: Forgot to mention that Carney voted for the stimulus bill and the House version of health care reform, so it’s questionable whether he could survive a GOP primary in PA-10. He did vote against the climate change bill.

SECOND UPDATE: Carney says he’s not switching:

“I am flattered by the overtures of Sen. McCain and other Republican Party officials and consider their outreach a sure sign that I have worked in a truly bipartisan manner,” Carney said in a statement.

“I always put my district above political party and have maintained an independent voice. I have enjoyed widespread Republican support throughout my district and will continue to work closely with Democrats, Republicans and independents alike. I appreciate the Republican Party’s outreach, but I have no plans to change parties.”

Just noticed this story in Politico (apologies if this was already diaried somewhere here):

The DCCC raised $3.65 million for the month, and ended November with $15.35 million cash-on-hand. It still holds $2.66 million in debt from last election cycle.

The NRCC only raised $2.34 million in November, and spent $2.16 million, hardly adding to their overall cash total. The committee now has $4.35 million in its account, while still owing $2 million in debt.

I am feeling rather pessimistic about next year’s House races, but if the NRCC can’t build up a decent war chest now, with unemployment high and support for health care reform sinking, I don’t see them putting together a huge wave. They’re talking about targeting dozens of seats, but they’re a long way from having the money to do that.

On the other hand, they do seem to have a more enthusiastic base.  

Three conservative Republicans have already announced plans to run against Representative Leonard Boswell in Iowa’s third Congressional district, and today retired architect Mark Rees of West Des Moines threw his hat in the ring too.  

William Petroski reports for the Des Moines Register:

Rees said he isn’t criticizing Democratic President Barack Obama or individual members of Congress.

“It’s not that I support what is and has been happening in Washington because I don’t any more than my fellow candidates,” Rees said in prepared remarks. “But it serves no legitimate purpose to craft politically motivated, emotionally driven statements laced with selected statistics promoting and promising unrealistic, unachievable results.” […]

Rees said he supports a federal balanced budget amendment, expanded job creation tax credits, capital investment tax credits for new equipment and facilities expansion and developing market import loan programs. He favors stronger border security, but wants to provide immigrants with a path to citizenship.

In addition, Rees said he wants to protect marriage between a man and a woman, but also believes in civil unions. He also favors cost-effective efforts to cap carbon emissions, but he does not support programs to allow pollution credits to be traded or purchased by any entity other than the government.

He said he supports expanding alternative energy programs through investment tax credit programs and a progressive tax structure that includes a vanishing long-term capital gains tax, a tiered short-term capital gains tax, a specialized market trading surtax, and a targeted short-sales capital gains tax.

West Des Moines is the largest suburb of Des Moines and one of the larger cities in IA-03, but many of the newest and wealthiest neighborhoods in West Des Moines lie in Dallas County, which is part of IA-04.

I have no idea whether Rees can self-fund or raise enough money to run a credible campaign during the primary. Dave Funk, Jim Gibbons and Brad Zaun will be competing to see who’s the most conservative, so it’s conceivable that a moderate could sneak through next June with a strong showing in the Des Moines suburbs.

If any of the other candidates drop out before then, though, I would put extremely long odds on GOP primary voters selecting someone who believes in civil unions for same-sex couples or a path to citizenship for immigrants who came to this country illegally.

Zaun doesn’t have any issue information on his website yet. Funk covers all the wingnut bases here. Gibbons recently announced one of the more idiotic tax proposals I’ve heard in a long time.

TUESDAY UPDATE: According to The Iowa Republican blog, Pat Bertroche is campaigning for this seat but has not filed paperwork with the FEC yet. So that would make five candidates if Bertroche goes forward.

After seeing all the great maps here I’ve decide to give it a try.  This is my first attempt at redistricting a state and my first diary.  While doing this for the first time I kind of wished I had lived in a smaller state, but Texas is where I grew up and where I live.  Since this is my first attempt at redistricting a state I want constructive criticism, but please be gentle 🙂 especially the long-time observers of Texas Politics because I am sure some of my commentary may be a bit off on some of the areas I am less familiar with.  I used Daves Redistricting App for this.  Please note I am not exactly familiar with the VRA law and how to apply it because I am new at this so if someone would like to critique this map for that it would be appreciated.

With Bill White running for Governor and the Democrats a few seats from the majority in the House, what would a Democratic Redistricting of Texas look like?

My goals for doing a Democratic redistricting of Texas were to

1.  Create at least two new Democratic seats in DFW

2.  Clean up Travis County

3.  Clean up Harris County, add another Dem seat.

4.  Work to weaken several GOP incumbents including Sessions and Culberson.

All districts have a +/- 2.5% population deviation from the average.  I will describe each group of district based on metro area or geographic location.

East Texas

CD-1 Largely consists of the currently existing CD-4.  Like most of rural Texas it is very white, very conservative. 71% White, 15% African American, 10% Hispanic  Safe R

CD-5 now includes Ellis County and the City of Tyler and is out of Dallas County entirely.  This new district has the potential for a very entertaining primary between Joe Barton, Louie Gohmert and Jeb Hensarling.  70% White, 10% African American, 16% Hispanic  Safe R

CD-6 which had a significant chunk of its population in the DFW metro area is now entirely rural.  69% White, 15% African American, 12% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-17 although this district is in Central Texas it shows up good in the East Texas pic.  I am one of the people who remains amazed at Chet Edwards-D ability to hold on to his heavily GOP district.  Unsure of how to protect him I only have a few choices since his district gained population so Bosque, Somervell, Madison and Grimes Counties have been removed from his district.  Waco and Byran/College Station are still within CD-17  This district is probably still a Toss-up as Edwards will have to work hard to maintain this seat.  67% White, 9% African American, 19% Hispanic

Greater Houston Area (the Rural/Suburban districts)

CD-33 is a rural district which extends from greater Houston to Bastrop Country which is southeast of Austin  which is a solid GOP seat.  61% White, 11% African American, 25% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-22 is now almost entirely contained within Fort Bent County with small pieces in Waller and West Harris County.  Obama barely lost Fort Bend County, and despite being a minority-majority district I think this seat stays GOP.  44% White, 17% African American, 24% Hispanic, 12% Asian  Likely R

CD-14 Ron Paul isn’t going anywhere.  56% White, 8% African American, 30% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-08 contains north suburban Houston, the district is largely split between the fast growing Montgomery County and North West Harris County. 71% White, 5% African American, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian.  Safe R

CD-02 Rural/suburban Houston contains Beaumont and Port Arthur.  62% White,, 18% African American, 15% Hispanic.  Safe R

Greater Houston (the Urban/Suburban districts)

CD-09 Now rests entirely within Harris County, other than a small extension to the west of CD-07 this district remains largely unchanged.  17% White, 32% African American, 36% Hispanic, 11% Asian.  Safe-D

CD-07 is now more Urban, it has essentially been shifted a big to the east which moves it a bit into south Houston.  The conservative west part of his district has been annexed by conservative CD-08.  46% White, 12% African American, 33% Hispanic, 5% Asian.  Leans D

CD-18 and CD-29 were both redrawn to undo the ugliness of the previous districts.  CD-18 15% White, 30% African American, 49% Hispanic.  CD-29 17% White, 14% African American, 65% Hispanic.  Both remain safe D.  

CD-35 Contains a good chunk of the currently existing CD-22 and is on the cusp of being a minority-majority district. 53% White, 10% African American, 29% Hispanic, 4% Asian  Lean R

Travis County (Austin)

CD-10 Contains most of Austin.  54% White, 6% African American, 32% Hispanic, 5% Asian,  Safe D

CD-25 At first I thought I drew a GOP leaning seat here but it may be a Dem leaning seat.  This district contains the remainder of Austin as well as Round Rock, Georgetown and Cedar Park.  If Dems organize well enough this could very well be a Dem held seat.  56% White, 9% African American, 27% Hispanic, 5% Asian.  Toss-up

Bexar County (San Antonio)

CD-21  This district is heavily Hispanic, much of this district is part of the former CD-23 and CD-20.  Ciro Rodriguez may opt to run here instead of CD-23 for reasons which will be clear when CD-23 is described. 29% White, 4% Black, 61% Hispanic  Safe D

CD-20  Central and South San Antonio, like CD-21 this district is heavily Hispanic. 30% White, 6% Black, 60% Hispanic  Safe D

South and Southwest Texas

CD-27 Remains largely unchanged, just tightened up because of the population increase in South Texas. 20% White, 2% African American, 75% Hispanic  Safe D

CD-15 Much of the Rio Grande Valley.  Safe D

CD-28 This guy extends from South San Antonio all the way down to Hidalgo county. 34% White, 6%, African American, 56% Hispanic  Safe D

CD-23 Laredo is back in this heavily Hispanic district.  82% Hispanic and 15% White makes this the most Hispanic district in the state.  

CD-16 In El Paso remains largely unchaged and is a bit more compacted.  Safe D

West and Central Texas

CD-13 A true West Texas district!  Contains the cities of Amarillo and Lubbock.  An interesting note about this district is that it is only 57% White, the remainder is 33% Hispanic and 5% African American.  I don’t know much about West Texas but I was expecting a much higher percentage of white folk.  However given the demise of the rural Democrats in Texas this district remains in the GOP hands.  Safe R

CD-19  Midland-Odessa and Abilene are the cities in this geographically huge district. 58% White, 5% African American, 33% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-11  This one encompasses a lot of Lamar Smiths former CD-21.  San Angelo and part of New Braunfels make up this heavily GOP district.  Loving County which is also the least populous County in the Country is also here. 68% White, 2 % African American, 26% Hispanic.  Stonewall, the birth place of President Lyndon Johnson is in this district.  Safe R

CD-31  Another rural conservative district located in Central Texas. 64% White, 12% African American, 18% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-04  Although this district is part of the DFW Metroplex it shows up nice on this image.  This district includes the northern parts of Denton and Collin County which are two of the fastest growing counties in the state.  At 78% White, 4% African American and 12% Hispanic this rural district is a GOP stronghold.  Contains Wichita Falls, Sherman and Denison, the later is the birthplace of President Dwight Eisenhower.  Safe R

DFW Metroplex

CD-36 This district which contains several Far North Dallas suburbs including McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Flower Mound and Denton is solid GOP all the way.  68% White, 7% African American, 17% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-12  The C shape of this district obviously stands rightly for “conservative”.  The most conservative parts of Americas second largest conservative urban county are here.  Conservative parts of south and west Arlington, West and North Tarrant County lock up this district as a solid GOP seat.  Safe R

CD-26 Situated in Central Fort Worth extending out into south Fort Worth and west into Arlington.  The Democratic Party would lock this one up. 37% White, 21% African American, 37% Hispanic.  Safe Dem

CD-24 This guy straddles the Dallas-Tarrant County line and is in an area of Dallas and Tarrant County where local Democrats have been having a lot of success in state House races the past few cycles.  42% White, 14% Black, 34% Hispanic.  Lean D

CD-30  This was the sole Democratic Representative in DFW after the redistricting of 2003.  CD-30 does remain the most African American in the state, however the district now grabs the conservative enclave of Highland Park in near the center of Dallas county. 25% White, 38% African American, 32% Hispanic.  Safe D

CD-03  Another district where local Democrats have been having great success at winning State House Seats.  42% White, 16% African American, 33% Hispanic and 6% Asian.  I really want classify this seat as Lean D but I don’t think it is quite there yet.  Toss-up

CD-34  Now the “What…” moment will be answered regarding this creatively drawn district.  This district is drawn to strengthen the Democratic presence in CD-32 and CD-03 by moving a lot of the strong GOP north Dallas areas into a safe GOP seat with Plano.  CD-34 cuts straight down into Dallas County and ropes up University Park, a conservative enclave just north of Highland Park.  Plano is one of the most conservative cities in the country and is almost entirely within this district. 64% White, 7% African American, 12% Hispanic, 12% Asian  Safe R

CD-32  This majority Hispanic district is now ready for to be picked up by a Dem.  Heavily Democratic portions of south Dallas are included and heavily GOP sections of north Dallas are included in CD-34.  28% White, 11% African American, 54% Hispanic.  Likely D

The Iowa blogger John Deeth brought this piece by Hotline’s Reid Wilson to my attention.

An informal list of 17 members the NRCC believes can be convinced to step down, privately called the “Dem Retirement Assault List,” makes clear the party needs Dem incumbents to step aside if they have hopes of taking back the majority. The NRCC has taken pains to attack those lawmakers in recent weeks.

The list includes 14 members whose districts voted for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in ’08. McCain won districts held by Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO) and Bart Gordon (D-TN) with more than 60% of the vote, and districts held by Reps. Rick Boucher (D-VA), Alan Mollohan (D-WV), Marion Berry (D-AR), Nick Rahall (D-WV) and Mike Ross (D-AR) with more than 55%.

McCain narrowly won seats held by Reps. John Spratt (D-SC), Allen Boyd (D-FL), Vic Snyder (D-AR), Baron Hill (D-IN), Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), Tim Holden (D-PA) and Collin Peterson (D-MN).

The NRCC has also begun targeting Reps. Sanford Bishop (D-GA), Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) and Leonard Boswell (D-IA), three members who already have credible opponents but who occupy seats Pres. Obama won in ’08.

Here in IA-03, Boswell has three declared Republican opponents. Two of them are likely to be well-funded: Brad Zaun, who has a decent chunk of the Iowa GOP establishment backing him, and former Iowa State university wrestling coach Jim Gibbons. Gibbons has already launched a couple of misleading attacks on Boswell, claiming he’s not working hard enough and that the estate tax fix will hurt farmers and small business owners.

2008 would have been a perfect time for Boswell to retire. Tons of voters in IA-03 registered as Democrats in order to participate in the Iowa caucuses, and any number of candidates could have held this seat easily.

I don’t know anyone who expects Boswell to retire next year, but if he did, this might be a tough hold. A lot would depend on the Democratic nominee, and we might have a crowded primary. One possible candidate is former First Lady Christie Vilsack, who seemed to leave the door open for a future campaign when she ruled out running against Senator Chuck Grassley.

Final note: in that Hotline piece, Wilson writes that

members frequently use the Thanksgiving and Christmas breaks as the time to decide whether to retire, filling Dec. and Jan. with announcements about their future. Already, rumors are flying that various members have decided not to run again.

I hope we don’t hear about more than a few additional retirements this winter. Who do you think are the most likely suspects?

UPDATE: Brian Baird (WA-03) wasn’t on the NRCC list, but he is retiring next year. This district’s PVI is even.

A week ago I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

Lots more Districts now have Republican candidates and they are getting wingnuttier all the time.

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

KS-03 (Moore OPEN) – R+3,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-23 (Owens) – R+1,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

As we assumed for us so should we assume for them; so all 177 Republican held districts can be considered filled.

176 Democratic held Districts have confirmed GOP candidates:

AL-02 (Bright) – R+16,

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+6,

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AZ-05 (Mitchell) – R+5,

AZ-07 (Grijalva) – D+6,

AZ-08 (Giffords) – R+4,

AR-01 (Berry) – R+8,

AR-02 (Snyder) – R+5,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-01 (Thompson) – D+13,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-08 (Pelosi) – D+35,

CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-20 (Costa) – D+5,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-30 (Waxman) – D+18,

CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CA-53 (Davis) – D+14,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

CO-03 (Salazar) – R+5,

CO-04 (Markey) – R+6,

CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+4,

CT-02 (Courtney) – D+6,

CT-03 (DeLauro) – D+9,

CT-04 (Himes) – D+5,

CT-05 (Murphy) – D+2,

FL-02 (Boyd) – R+6,

FL-03 (Brown) – D+18,

FL-08 (Grayson) – R+2,

FL-11 (Castor) – D+11,

FL-17 (Meek OPEN) – D+34,

FL-19 (Wexler Special Election) – D+15,

FL-20 (Wasserman Schulz) – D+13,

FL-22 (Klein) – D+1,

FL-23 (Hastings) – D+28,

FL-24 (Kosmas) – R+4,

GA-02 (Bishop) – D+1,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

GA-12 (Barrow) – D+1,

GA-13 (Scott) – D+15,

HI-01 (Abercrombie OPEN) – D+11,

ID-01 (Minnick) – R+18,

IL-02 (Jackson Jr) – D+36,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-08 (Bean) – R+1,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-11 (Halvorson) – R+1,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IL-14 (Foster) – R+1,

IL-17 (Hare) – D+3,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IN-08 (Ellsworth) – R+8,

IN-09 (Hill) – R+6,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+1,

IA-03 (Boswell) – D+1,

KS-03 (Moore Open) – R+3,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,

LA-03 (Melancon OPEN) – R+12,

ME-02 (Michaud) – D+3,

MD-01 (Kratovil) – R+13,

MD-03 (Sarbanes) – D+6,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MD-08 (Van Hollen Jr) – D+21,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-02 (Neal) – D+9,

MA-04 (Frank) – D+14,

MA-05 (Tsongas) – D+8,

MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MI-07 (Schauer) – R+2,

MI-09 (Peters) – D+2,

MI-12 (Levin) – D+12,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

MN-04 (McCollum) – D+13,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MS-01 (Childers) – R+14,

MS-04 (Taylor) – R+20,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

MO-04 (Skelton) – R+14,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NH-01 (Shea Porter) – D+0,

NH-02 (Hodes OPEN) – D+3,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NJ-12 (Holt) – D+5,

NM-01 (Heinrich) – D+5,

NM-02 (Teague) – R+6,

NM-03 (Lujan) – D+7,

NY-01 (Bishop) – D+0,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-04 (McCarthy) – D+6,

NY-13 (McMahon) – R+4,

NY-19 (Hall) – R+3,

NY-22 (Hinchey) – D+6,

NY-23 (Owens) – R+1,

NY-25 (Maffei) – D+3,

NY-29 (Massa) – R+5,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-04 (Price) – D+8,

NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+5,

NC-08 (Kissell) – R+2,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

NC-13 (Miller) – D+5,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OH-01 (Driehaus) – D+1,

OH-06 (Wilson) – R+2,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-15 (Kilroy) – D+1,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OH-18 (Space) – R+7,

OK-02 (Boren) – R+14,

OR-01 (Wu) – D+8,

OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-03 (Dahlkemper) – R+3,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

PA-07 (Sestak) – D+3,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-10 (Carney) – R+8,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-12 (Murtha) – R+1,

PA-13 (Schwartz) – D+7,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

RI-01 (Kennedy) – D+13,

RI-02 (Langevin) – D+9,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) – R+9,

TN-04 (Davis) – R+13,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TN-06 (Gordon) – R+13,

TN-08 (Tanner) – R+6,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

UT-02 (Matheson) – R+15,

VA-02 (Nye) – R+5,

VA-05 (Perriello) – R+5,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

VA-09 (Boucher) – R+11,

VA-11 (Connolly) – D+2,

WA-03 (Baird) – D+0,

WA-06 (Dicks) – D+5,

WA-09 (Smith) – D+5,

WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,

WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,

WI-02 (Baldwin) – D+15,

WI-03 (Kind) – D+4,

WI-04 (Moore) – D+22,

WI-07 (Obey) – D+3,

WI-08 (Kagen) – R+2,

7 Democratic held Districts have GOP candidates that are considering a run:

CA-10 (Garamendi) – D+11,

ME-01 (Pingree) – D+8,

NY-14 (Maloney) – D+26,

NY-20 (Murphy) – R+2,

NY-24 (Arcuri) – R+2,

OH-17 (Ryan) – D+12,

WA-07 (McDermott) – D+31,

1 Democratic held District has a rumoured GOP Party candidates:

NJ-08 (Pascrell) – D+10,

72 Democratic held Districts don’t have any GOP candidates:

AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,

CA-05 (Matsui) – D+15,

CA-07 (Miller) – D+19,

CA-09 (Lee) – D+37,

CA-12 (Speier) – D+23,

CA-14 (Eshoo) – D+21,

CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,

CA-16 (Lofgren) – D+16,

CA-17 (Farr) – D+19,

CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,

CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,

CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,

CA-31 (Becerra) – D+29,

CA-32 (Chu) – D+15,

CA-34 (Roybal-Allard) – D+22,

CA-35 (Waters) – D+31,

CA-37 (Richardson) – D+26,

CA-38 (Napolitano) – D+18,

CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,

CA-43 (Baca) – D+13,

CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,

CT-01 (Larson) – D+13,

GA-05 (Lewis) – D+26,

HI-02 (Hirono) – D+14,

IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,

MD-02 (Ruppersberger) – D+7,

MD-07 (Cummings) – D+25,

MA-03 (McGovern) – D+9,

MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,

MA-08 (Capuano) – D+32,

MA-09 (Lynch) – D+11,

MI-01 (Stupak) – R+3,

MI-13 (Kilpatrick) – D+31,

MI-14 (Conyers) – D+34,

MI-15 (Dingell) – D+13,

MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,

MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5,

MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,

MO-01 (Clay) – D+27,

NJ-01 (Andrews) – D+12,

NJ-06 (Pallone) – D+8,

NJ-09 (Rothman) – D+9,

NJ-10 (Payne) – D+33,

NJ-13 (Sires) – D+21,

NY-05 (Ackerman) – D+12,

NY-06 (Meeks) – D+36,

NY-07 (Crowley) – D+26,

NY-08 (Nadler) – D+22,

NY-09 (Weiner) – D+5,

NY-10 (Towns) – D+38,

NY-11 (Clarke) – D+38,

NY-12 (Velazquez) – D+33,

NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,

NY-16 (Serrano) – D+41,

NY-17 (Engel) – D+18,

NY-18 (Lowey) – D+9,

NY-21 (Tonko) – D+6,

NY-27 (Higgins) – D+4,

NY-28 (Slaughter) – D+15,

NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,

OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,

OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,

OR-03 (Blumenauer) – D+19,

PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,

PA-02 (Fattah) – D+38,

SC-06 (Clyburn) – D+12,

TN-09 (Cohen) – D+23,

VT-AL (Welch) – D+13,

VA-03 (Scott) – D+20,

WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,

WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,

Candidate Filing closed – No Candidate – 2 Districts

IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,

IL-04 (Gutierrez) – D+32,

So the Republicans have confirmed candidates in 353 districts (with 2 Democrats being given free passes in 2010). Take a look at some of their challengers websites though and your eyeballs will bleed. They also have 7 districts with candidates that are considering a run and 1 district with rumoured candidates.

They also have some huge gaps in California and New York.

They already have a full House slate in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming (we have 23 such states).

They also have but one slot to fill in Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana,  Maine,  Mississippi, Missouri, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia (we have 8 such states).

And of course there is Illinois where 2 districts won’t have Republican candidates on the ballot in 2010.

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

More updates soon.

Alright, here’s sort of a group trivia question: Which open seat House races (including special elections) have the Democrats lost since 1994? I’m sure that together, we can name them all.

UPDATE: I think this chart covers it. Let me know if I’ve missed any.

The Michigan and Pennsylvania races in 2002, the Texas races in 2004 and the LA-05 race in 1996 were all due to redistricting. Obviously the Texas races pose a bit of a definitional problem, since most of the affected Dem incumbents ran in different districts (or at least, renumbered districts). But I’ve left TX-10, 11 & 24 on the list because there were indeed no incumbents who ran in those races. TX-02 is a little trickier, because Jim Turned retired outright, but incumbent Nick Lampson ran in the 2nd CD (albeit a very different-looking 2nd CD). But I think it merits inclusion.

And here’s an interesting tidbit: Not counting losses attributable to redistricting, Dems have lost 27 open seats and 12 incumbents since 1994, for a total of 39 over a 15-year period. To take back the House, the GOP needs to win two more than that total – 41.

In less than 15 months the midterms will be upon us.

In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.

How will we go in 2010?

Since my last update many more intrepid Democrats stepped up to run in Republican held Districts.

AK-AL (Young) – R+13,

AZ-03 (Shadegg) – R+9,

AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

FL-21 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,

IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,

IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

IA-05 (King) – R+9,

KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,

KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,

MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,

MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,

NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,

NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,

NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,

PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,

WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,

WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Well for starters I think we can safely assume that we will field candidates in all 258 of the Districts that we currently hold including the newest addition to our held list NY-23!!!

So onto the Republican held districts:

90 GOP held Districts have confirmed Democratic Party candidates. This includes 83 in states where candidate filing is still open:

AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,

AK-AL (Young) – R+13,

AZ-03 (Shadegg) – R+9,

AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,

AR-03 (Boozman) – R+16,

CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

CA-19 (Radanovich) – R+9,

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

C0-06 (Coffman) – R+8,

DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,

FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,

FL-05 (Brown-Waite) – R+9,

FL-06 (Stearns) – R+10,

FL-07 (Mica) – R+7,

FL-10 (Young) – R+1,

FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,

FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,

FL-14 (Mack) – R+11,

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,

FL-21 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,

IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,

IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

IA-05 (King) – R+9,

KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,

KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,

KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,

KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,

KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,

LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

MD-06 (Bartlett) – R+13,

MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,

MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,

MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,

MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,

MT-AL (Rehberg) – R+7,

NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,

NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

NE-03 (Smith) – R+24,

NV-02 (Heller) – R+5,

NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,

NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,

OH-02 (Schmidt) – R+13,

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,

PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

PA-16 (Pitts) – R+8,

PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,

PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,

SC-01 (Brown) – R+10,

SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,

SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,

TN-03 (Wamp OPEN) – R+13,

TN-07 (Blackburn) – R+18,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,

WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,

WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,

WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,

WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,

And there are also 7 GOP held Districts with candidates in states where filing has closed:

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,

IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,

IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

IL-18 (Schock) – R+6,

IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,

3 GOP held Districts have Democratic Party candidates that are considering a run:

NY-03 (King) – R+4,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,

2 GOP held Districts have rumoured Democratic Party candidates:

FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,

OK-01 (Sullivan) – R+16,

82 GOP held Districts don’t have any Democratic Party candidates:

AL-01 (Bonner) – R+14,

AL-04 (Aderholt) – R+26,

AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,

AZ-02 (Franks) – R+13,

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,

CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,

CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,

C0-05 (Lamborn) – R+14,

FL-04 (Crenshaw) – R+17,

FL-09 (Bilirakis) – R+6,

GA-01 (Kingston) – R+16,

GA-03 (Westmoreland) – R+19,

GA-06 (Price) – R+19,

GA-07 (Linder) – R+16,

GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,

GA-11 (Gingrey) – R+20,

ID-02 (Simpson) – R+17,

IN-04 (Buyer) – R+14,

IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,

KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,

KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,

LA-01 (Scalise) – R+24,

LA-04 (Fleming) – R+11,

LA-05 (Alexander) – R+14,

LA-06 (Cassidy) – R+10,

LA-07 (Boustany) – R+14,

MI-03 (Ehlers) – R+6,

MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,

MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,

MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,

MI-10 (Miller) – R+5,

MO-02 (Akin) – R+9,

MO-06 (Graves) – R+7,

MO-07 (Blunt OPEN) – R+15,

MO-09 (Luetkemeyer) – R+9,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,

NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+7,

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+7,

NY-26 (Lee) – R+6,

NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,

NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,

NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,

OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,

OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,

OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,

OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,

OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,

OK-03 (Lucas) – R+24,

OK-04 (Cole) – R+18,

OK-05 (Fallin OPEN) – R+13,

OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,

PA-05 (Thompson) – R+9,

PA-09 (Shuster) – R+17,

SC-04 (Inglis) – R+15,

TN-01 (Roe) – R+21,

TN-02 (Duncan) – R+16,

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

UT-01 (Bishop) – R+21,

UT-03 (Chaffetz) – R+26,

VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,

VA-06 (Goodlatte) – R+12,

VA-07 (Cantor) – R+9,

WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers) – R+7,

WY-AL (Lummis) – R+20,

So we now have candidate in 348 House Districts, 3 Districts with candidates considering their options and 2 with rumoured candidates.

In this stage in 2007 we had candidates in about 359 Districts but we do now hold 21 more districts. All things considered not a bad position to be in.

Whilst at this stage there is no real cause for concern vis a vis candidate recruitment, so much more remains to be done.

On the upside we already have a full slate in 23 states – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont & West Virginia.

We also have only 1 district to fill in 8 states – Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, South Carolina, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.  

On the other hand however Texas is a problem for us as it has been for the last two cycles with 13 Districts still to fill, and 5 weeks to close of filings (January 4th). So too do we have far too many vancancies in California we do already have candidates in a number of Republican districts here.

And to finish well done to the Illinois Democratic Party who managed to muster a full complement of candidates before filing closed earlier ths month.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

Most election forecasters put Iowa’s third Congressional district in the “safe Democratic” or “likely Democratic” category, but Republicans in this state have vowed to run hard against seven-term incumbent Leonard Boswell.

The mystery “top-rate” Republican recruit for this race emerged today.  

According to The Iowa Republican blog, former Iowa State University wrestling coach Jim Gibbons will file papers with the Federal Election Commission today to run in IA-03.

At Ames High School, he won three state titles. At Iowa State University, he was a three-time All-American and won a national championship during his junior year.

When his collegiate wrestling career was over, then-ISU coach Dr. Harold Nichols, offered Gibbons a job as an assistant coach. When Nichols retired in 1986, Gibbons was named head coach. He coached seven individual NCAA champions while compiling a 96-32-1 career coaching mark. After winning the NCAA Championships in 1987, Gibbons was named national coach of the year. He was named Big Eight Coach of the Year in 1991 and retired from coaching after the 1992 season.

Since leaving coaching, Gibbons has been a financial advisor, most recently with Wells Fargo Advisors in West Des Moines. He also serves as a television commentator, providing color commentary for ESPN, The Big Ten Network, and Iowa Public Television. In 2003, he was named broadcaster of the year by the National Wrestling Media Association.

Gibbons says he is retiring from Wells Fargo to run for Congress full-time. He opposed the federal stimulus package and Democratic bills on health care reform and climate change.

I’m guessing that this means State Senator Brad Zaun and former Iowa GOP chairman Mike Mahaffey will not seek the Republican nomination to challenge Boswell. Gibbons can probably raise a decent amount of money and may even be able to self-fund his campaign. The National Republican Congressional Committee is unlikely to invest a lot of money in this district in my opinion.

College wrestling is a popular sport in Iowa, but I still don’t see Boswell as a likely casualty next year. If unemployment keeps rising, though, who knows? Any comments about this or other House races are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Bleeding Heartland user mirage, who is a Republican, doesn’t think much of Gibbons and believes Zaun would be a much stronger candidate. Zaun was mayor of Urbandale, a heavily Republican suburb of Des Moines, before winning a seat in the Iowa Senate in 2004.

SECOND UPDATE: I was wrong about Zaun, who told CQ Politics today that he plans to run against Boswell. Zaun said he will formally announce his candidacy sometime after December 1.

Zaun was just re-elected to the Iowa Senate in 2008, so he won’t have to give up his seat in the upper chamber if he loses the GOP primary or the general election.

CQ Politics suggested that with Gibbons and Zaun in the race, it may change its rating on this district from “safe Democratic.” I tend to agree with the statement that Gabby Adler of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee sent to CQ Politics:

“Each year Republicans claim they have Congressman Boswell in their sights, and each year they never live up to their own hype – there is no reason to believe this time will be any different,” Adler said.

What puzzles me is why so many Republicans are seeking this position. Even if a Republican beats Boswell, he is likely to be thrown into a 2012 primary against Tom Latham in a redrawn IA-03. Few people would choose a freshman over a nine-term incumbent with a seat on the House Appropriations Committee.

THIRD UPDATE: CQ Politics changed its rating on IA-03 from “Safe Democratic” to “Democrat favored” because Gibbons and Zaun are joining this race.

NOVEMBER 25 UPDATE: Zaun has filed FEC paperwork for this race and revamped his website.

You may remember that in the wake of the 2008 elections, I tried out a new quantitative project, developing an index for predicting vulnerability for House members based on a mix of PVI and previous House election performance. (It turned out to be pretty useful, in that 2006 numbers were pretty predictive of who actually got knocked off in 2008.)

I included, of course, what the index would predict for 2010, but with the caveat that things would change as we became aware of more open seats. With a number of open seats in key races now known — and with SSP Labs gearing up to issue a Competitive House Race Ratings table — it’s time to re-crunch the numbers. Two other important modifications are being included here, too: back in January, we were still relying on 2000-04 Cook PVIs, but now we have 2004-08 PVIs. This can help us more accurately pin down where some of the races are headed, in view of accelerating pro-Democratic trends in, say, California or Illinois and pro-Republican trends in Arkansas and Tennessee. And rather than using 2008 margins in NY-20, NY-23, CA-10, CA-32, and IL-05, I’m using the narrower 2009 special election margins in each of those cases.

Here’s a quick recap of how it works. Check out the chart of vulnerable Democrats below, which indicates that Bobby Bright is in the worst shape. Bobby Bright had the 3rd narrowest margin of victory of any Democrat (0.6%, behind only Tom Perriello at 0.2% and Scott Murphy at 0.4% in the NY-20 special), and he’s in the district with the 4th worst PVI of any Democrat (R+16, behind only Chet Edwards, Gene Taylor, and Walt Minnick). Add them up for a raw vulnerability score of 7, the worst of any Democrat. Slightly below him you might notice that LA-03 gets a margin of 0 (despite that Charlie Melancon won unopposed in 2008); that’s the tweak that I perform for all open seats. With PVI alone (R+12, 13th worst of any Dem-held seat), the raw score is 13, good for 3rd place.

I can already anticipate all the objections: it doesn’t take into account the quality of the opposition, it doesn’t take into account fundraising, it doesn’t take into account whether a candidate is uniquely appealing or unappealing or campaign-savvy or rusty, and it doesn’t take tough votes into account. That is all true. This is just a simple yardstick for getting the conversation started. And at any rate, if you want something more nuanced, Tom Schaller over at 538 recently put together a chart incorporating some of these other elements and still got… well… some weirder results (Gerry Connolly in VA-11 the most vulnerable? Doesn’t seem likely.)

Rather than the 20 I featured in January, I’m expanding the Dem list to 50, as it looks like Democratic vulnerabilities may extend well beyond 20. Not to say that we’re definitely looking at anything close to a 1994-sized event next year — we don’t have anywhere near the number of open seats up next year (yet) as in 1994, which was where the GOP did the most damage — or that Democratic House losses in 2010 will exceed 20, but simply acknowledging that the NRCC has been successful in “spreading the field” by recruiting solid candidates in rarely-challenged Dem-held red districts, and some of the losses may come from seats outside the currently most likely suspects.

District	Rep.	Margin rating	PVI rating	Total
AL-02	Bright	3	4	7
ID-01	Minnick	6	3	9
LA-03	Open	0	13	13
MD-01	Kratovil	5	11	16
TX-17	Edwards, C.	21	1	22
AL-05	Griffith	11	12	23
MS-01	Childers	28.5	7	35.5
VA-05	Perriello	1	38	39
NY-29	Massa	7	36	43
NY-20	Murphy, S.	2	53	55
VA-02	Nye	17.5	40	57.5
GA-08	Marshall	42	16	58
PA-10	Carney	38	20	58
PA-03	Dahlkemper	9	50	59
NC-02	Open?	0	60	60
PA-04	Altmire	34	29	63
MI-07	Schauer	8	56	64
AZ-05	Mitchell	25	43	68
FL-08	Grayson	14	54	68
NM-02	Teague	36	34	70
TN-04	Davis, L.	61	9	70
NY-24	Arcuri	14	57	71
CO-04	Markey, B.	37	35	72
OH-16	Boccieri	30.5	48	78.5
AZ-01	Giffords	35	44	79
OH-15	Kilroy	4	75	79
NY-23	Owens	14	66	80
AZ-01	Kirkpatrick	49	32	81
ND-AL	Pomeroy	67	15	82
OH-18	Space	59	24	83
IN-09	Hill	57	27	84
WI-08	Kagen	22	62	84
NJ-03	Adler	16	70	86
TX-23	Rodriguez	40	47	87
NC-08	Kissell	30.5	59	89.5
UT-02	Matheson	85	5	90
NH-01	Shea-Porter	20	72	92
CA-11	McNerney	28.5	64	92.5
FL-24	Kosmas	48	45	93
SC-05	Spratt	68	25	93
OH-01	Driehaus	17.5	78	95.5
NH-02	Open	0	97	97
FL-02	Boyd	65	33	98
NC-11	Shuler	70.5	28	98.5
PA-07	Open	0	99	99
KS-03	Moore, D.	50.5	49	99.5
FL-22	Klein	23	77	100
MO-04	Skelton	95.5	6	101.5
NV-03	Titus	19	84	103
NY-19	Hall	52	51	103

Again, some of these names may not be in much danger, because of a combination of their entrenchment and the lack of much of a GOP challenge so far (Chet Edwards, Marshall, Carney). And there are a few names who aren’t on the list because they faced token or no opposition last year who are facing potentially worrisome challenges this year (Snyder, Tanner). Finally, bear in mind that some of these might still turn into open seats and get bumped much higher up the list, as some of the oldsters (Skelton, Spratt) might get tempted to say “Screw it” and throw in the towel a few years earlier than planned.

Now let’s turn to the vulnerable GOP seats. The good news is: the Democrats start out with 4 pickups likely in their pockets, more vulnerable than any Democratic-held seat, which is a solid bulkhead against GOP gains elsewhere. The bad news is: after that, the pickings get pretty slim.

District	Rep.	Margin rating	PVI rating	Total
DE-AL	Open	0	2	2
IL-10	Open	0	3	3
PA-06	Open	0	4	4
LA-02	Cao	5	1	6
WA-08	Reichert	16	5	21
MI-11	McCotter	17	11	28
CA-50	Bilbray	11	23	34
MN-03	Paulsen	22	12	34
FL-12	Open	0	41	41
OH-12	Tiberi	34	8	42
IL-13	Biggert	28	15	43
NJ-07	Lance	24	20	44
CA-44	Calvert	3	48	51
FL-25	Diaz-Balart, M.	18	34	52
CA-03	Lungren	15	38	53
IL-06	Roskam	44.5	9	53.5
CA-26	Dreier	33	24	57
NE-02	Terry	7	53	60
MI-02	Open	0	62	62
MN-06	Bachmann	6	58	64
PA-15	Dent	58	6	64
CA-46	Rohrabacher	26	39	65
NV-02	Heller	29	37	66
MI-08	Rogers, M.	52	16	68
MN-02	Kline	39	29	68

For comparison purposes, the January charts are over the flip…

District	Rep.	Margin rating	PVI rating	Total
ID-01	Minnick	5	1	6
AL-02	Bright	2	5	7
MD-01	Kratovil	4	10	14
TX-17	Edwards	19	2	21
VA-05	Perriello	1	26.5	27.5
AL-05	Griffith	10	20	30
MS-01	Childers	25.5	8.5	34
NY-29	Massa	6	29.5	35.5
VA-02	Nye	15.5	22	37.5
CO-04	Markey	34	11.5	45.5
PA-10	Carney	35	14	49
GA-08	Marshall	39	13	52
FL-08	Grayson	12.5	44	56.5
MI-07	Schauer	7	49.5	56.5
NM-02	Teague	33	23.5	56.5
WI-08	Kagen	20	38.5	58.5
OH-15	Kilroy	3	58	61
AZ-05	Mitchell	23	38.5	61.5
PA-03	Dahlkemper	8	54	62
OH-16	Boccieri	27.5	40	67.5

As you can see, Bright and Minnick have flipped places, thanks to ID-01’s Democratic shift and AL-02’s continued reddening. The same goes for VA-05, where Tom Perriello slipped down a few spots thanks to strong presidential performance in Virginia (although last week’s gubernatorial results in rural Virginia indicate Perriello is far from out of the woods). Also, notice Scott Murhpy’s high entry on the new chart, although that doesn’t have anything to do with trends in his district, only with the paper-thin margin of his special election victory.

District	Rep.	Margin rating	PVI rating	Total
LA-02	Cao	5	1	6
PA-06	Gerlach	9	6	15
IL-10	Kirk	13	4	17
WA-08	Reichert	16	5	21
MI-11	McCotter	17	16	33
MN-03	Paulsen	22	12	34
NJ-07	Lance	24	13	37
OH-12	Tiberi	34	14	48
CA-50	Bilbray	11	40	51
MN-06	Bachmann	6	46.5	52.5
FL-25	Diaz-Balart	18	37	55
CA-44	Calvert	3	55	58
AL-03	Rogers	25	34	59
LA-04	Fleming	1	60	61
FL-15	Posey	31	30.5	61.5
MN-02	Kline	39	23	62
CA-26	Dreier	33	30.5	63.5
MO-09	Luetkemeyer	4	60	64
NY-26	Lee	38	27	65
PA-15	Dent	58	8	66

By contrast, a few Republicans (Fleming, Luetkemeyer, and Alabama Mike Rogers) fall off the list thanks to strong McCain performances in 2008 in their districts. Even Michele Bachmann looks a little safer, thanks to little presidential movement in her district (although she’s a prime example of how this formula can’t account for the quality of a challenger or the insanity of an incumbent).