Larry Sabato updates his House ratings

Larry Sabato, professor of Political Science at the University of Virginia and director of the Center for Politics has updated his U.S. House predictions.  

Overall, it is very good news for as.  More over the flip.

Here are today’s changes:

AL-02 OPEN Leans R to Toss-up

AZ-03 Shadegg Likely R to Leans R

CA-04 OPEN Likely R to Toss-up

CA-50 Bilbray Likely R to Leans R

CT-04 Shays Leans R to Leans D

FL-08 Keller Toss-up to Leans D

FL-16 Mahoney Leans R to Likely R

FL-24 Feeney Toss-up to Leans D

FL-25 M. Diaz-Balart Leans R to Toss-up

ID-01 Sali Likely R to Leans R

IL-10 Kirk Leans R to Toss-up

IN-03 Souder Safe R to Leans R

KS-02 Boyda Leans D to Toss-up

KY-02 OPEN Leans R to Toss-up

LA-06 Cazayoux Toss-up to Leans D

MD-01 OPEN Leans R to Toss-up

MI-07 Walberg Toss-up to Leans D

MI-09 Knollenberg Leans R to Toss-up

MN-03 OPEN Toss-up to Leans D

MN-06 Bachmann Safe R to Toss-up

MO-06 Graves Likely R to Leans R

NE-02 Terry Likely R to Leans R

NJ-05 Garrett Likely R to Leans R

NM-01 OPEN Toss-up to Leans D

NM-02 OPEN Toss-up to Leans D

NY-26 OPEN Leans R to Toss-up

NC-08 Hayes Toss-up to Leans D

OH-16 OPEN Toss-up to Leans D

PA-03 English Leans R to Toss-up

SC-01 Brown Safe R to Likely R

TX-07 Culberson Likely R to Leans R

WV-02 Capito Likely R to Leans R

WY-AL OPEN Leans R to Toss-up

Things are looking for good for us.  With today’s changes, Sabato is now predicting us to pick off 17 Republican seats.  And that doesn’t include toss ups and upsets from the “likely Republican” and “leans Republican” columns.  Nine Republican seats have moved to “leans Democratic” today alone.

Another eleven Republican seats have been moved to tossup status.  In all, 30 Republican seats were moved in our direction.  Addtionally, Don Cazayoux’s race has been upgraded to “leans Democratic.”

The only sour notes for us is that Tim Mahoney’s race was further downgraded to “likely Republican” and Nancy Boyda is now a tossup.

PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Come January 2009, We Must Remember What The American People Expec

Earlier this week I received an email from a 5th district voter with very strong pro-life beliefs who would like to vote for me.  She told me via email that she is comfortable that I am Catholic and my stance on pro-life issues is similar to that of Sen. Robert Casey.   She feels it is very likely Barack Obama will be elected President and the Democratic Party will gain seats Congress.   Where her concern lies is what actions a newly inaugurated President Barack Obama and a United States Congress with a strong Democratic majority will take after January of 2009.   She is afraid there will be a far left agenda that will attempt to overturn pro-life initiatives put into effect like the ban on partial birth abortions.

In my response back to her, I explained that my agenda when I arrive in Washington will be exactly what I’ve been campaigning on.  I want to concentrate on fiscal responsibility, a national energy policy that stresses domestically produced alternative fuels, health care and health insurance reform, saving and strengthening Social Security, rescinding No Child Left Behind and bringing our troops home from Iraq.   I also mentioned that I will not stand for Congress losing sight of what the agenda must be — solving the problems important to the middle class.

There are so many important issues the American people want resolved and, if they give the Democratic Party a mandate with the election of Barack Obama as President and a larger majority in the United States Congress, we must strictly honor the wishes of the people.  From Barack Obama on down, we need to realize going in the American people want results and they want the mess left by George W. Bush cleaned up.  What they not accept is veering off on a far left agenda that brings issues to the table that have nothing to do with the economy and the problems of the middle class.

For the first time since the so called “Reagan Revolution” in 1980, the country is ready to put their full trust in the Democratic Party.  The Democratic Party the voters want to see is one that will concentrate on the problems of the middle class and will reflect the leadership values of Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and John F. Kennedy.  To make this happen and to honor the trust the American people will give to the Democratic Party on November 4th, the far left elements must stand down and allow Barack Obama and a moderate Democratic Congress to lead this country.  This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to turn our country around and there is no margin for error.



Gen. Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama:

Today’s endorsement by Colin Powell of Barack Obama is news that will likely solidify what the outcome will be on November 4th.  To have someone of Gen. Powell’s stature come out and endorse Sen. Obama should speak volumes to any of the undecided voters still out there.  It should also encourage those to of us who long ago decided that Barack Obama is the leader we need that we made the right choice.



Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

This week I participated in 3 candidate forum / debates with my opponents.   I feel very confident in my performance against my 2 opponents and I am able to show the voters that we are on their side on the important issues like fiscal responsibility, health care reform, saving Social Security, energy policy and the concern for the problems of the middle class.  

On Friday evening, Henry Guthrie and I traveled to Forest County to meet with members of the Democratic Party there.   Thanks to Sheriff Bob Wolfgang for arranging the meeting.   There was a large contingent of Forest County Democrats at the meeting and they are ready to do everything they can to help our campaign and see a big Democratic victory on November 4th.

On Saturday evening, Kelly and I traveled to Ridgway for the Elk County Democratic Committee fall dinner.  It was a wonderful event and we got to hear a round of great speeches from Nye Simmons representing the Obama campaign, Don Hilliard running for the State Senate and Rep. Dan Surra running for re-election to the state house.  The folks in Elk County are out working hard for the Democratic ticket and I reminded them that Elk County with a solid Democratic registration majority will play a large role in the outcome of the 5th district race.



Schedule for Upcoming Week:

Monday — 11:30 AM — Williamsport Rotary

Monday — 5:00 PM — McCracken for Congress Pre-Debate Reception – St. James Church Parish Hall — 30 Wellsboro Street — Mansfield PA.  

Monday — 7:00 PM — Tioga County Debate — Mansfield Univ. Straughn Auditorium

Tuesday — 3 – 3:45 PM — Arnold Addison Court in St. College — with Art Goldschmidt

Tuesday — 4 – 5 PM Foxdale Retirement Community in St. College — with Art Goldschmidt

Tuesday — 7 PM — Bellefonte Media Outlet Debate

Wednesday — 6:30 PM — Mifflin County Farm Bureau Debate — Indian Valley HS – Lewistown

Thursday — 7 PM — WPSU TV Debate — State College

Friday — WJAC Debate in Centre County — Details TBA

Saturday — 1 PM — Cameron County Democratic Lunch – Emporium

Saturday — 5 PM — Centre County Fall Democratic Banquet — State College

Sunday — 12 Noon — House Party at Marie Sweets in State College



FUNDRAISING REMINDER
— Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project. We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks. The only way to turn this country around is to send people to Washington who will make the tough decisions. The choice in the 5th district is clear. My opponent regularly states that he supports the fiscal policies of the Bush administration AKA “the Bush tax cuts” and will continue them — More of the Same. While I continue to stress that we must balance the budget, built a surplus and pay down the debt.

In order to get the message out to voters we will need to advertise which costs money. Please contact your family and friends and urge them to financially support our campaign as we move into the final weeks. Donations can be made online through www.actblue.com or by direct mail to McCracken for Congress, PO Box 332, Clearfield PA 16830.



Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

GA-Sen: The Libertarian is now getting on the air

Today, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Allen Buckley, the Libertarian candidate for the Senate from Georgia, is going up on the air on cable in Metro Atlanta and Columbus.  This is good news.  The analysis for a Survey USA poll states that Buckley hurts Chambliss more.

The first ad is over the flip.


Allen Buckley Commercial #1 from Allen Buckley on Vimeo.

And while we’re here, give Jim Martin some love: a Act Blue.

House Cattle Call: Less than a month to go!

If I remember right, it’s been a few of months since we had a House Cattle call, although we have Senate ones monthly.  A lot has happened in those few months. I think our chances in several strongly Republican Districts have greatly improved, and we’ve put away some districts that were competitive a few months ago.  Most of the Pundits are predicting gains greater than 20 seats, with 30 or more seats likely.  McCain is losing ground by the day, and Republicans nation wide are hemorrhaging support thanks to the Economic crisis.  Democratic incumbents are in increasingly less danger, with only approximately 5 seats in serious risk. Needless to say, this one is looking like a wave election possibly better than 2006.  Go as far down as you want, as we have no shortage of targets.

PA-05: McCracken for Congress — United States National Debt Surpasses $10 Trillion

While everyone was focusing on the fate of the bailout plan this week, the federal government’s debt passed the $10 trillion mark with hardly anyone noticing.  Of course, the bailout plan insures that this debt will climb even higher as there is specific language in the bailout plan authorizing the federal government to raise the debt limit and borrow up to $840 billion to fund the bailout.

————————————————————————————————–

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 05 Oct 2008 at 12:45:21 PM GMT is:

$10,156,891,193,312.09

The estimated population of the United States is 304,852,050

so each citizen’s share of this debt is $33,317.19.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of

$3.08 billion per day since September 28, 2007!

————————————————————————————————–

The working people of the United States should be outraged that the members of Congress passed the bailout bill without addressing a way to fund the cost.  It is bordering on criminal that our elected leaders at the federal level continue to allow this debt to grow ignoring the impact it will have on the future security of our nation.  I have continued to stress as the main theme of my campaign that we must elect leaders who will make fiscal responsibility a top priority.  We must solve this problem now or we will pass it on to our children and grandchildren, leaving this country a weak shell of what it once was.

In a typical campaign year, voters would be looking for the candidates that are spreading the “Happy Days Are Here Again” message.  However, in 2008, unless you are living a severe state of denial, you have to realize that tough times are upon us and tough choices must be made.  I’ve heard my Republican opponent regularly state “I believe our best days are ahead of us.”   The hard facts are people are struggling with higher fuel prices, no health care coverage, higher food prices and higher local taxes because of the failed policies of the last 8 years and the neglect of the problems affecting the middle class.  While they’ve worked to reform welfare for individuals, our government is now passing bailout legislation that amounts to corporate welfare.

The real message voters need to hear is the hard truth.   This country is a mess and tough decisions must be made to turn the country around.   The turn around won’t be a quick and it won’t be easy.  But, if voters do their part and make the right choices on November 4th, we can start the process to bring our country back.  And, in bringing the country back, the emphasis must be on putting the needs of the working people above the desires of corporate America for profits.  



Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

This past week I was on the road doing interviews with several newspapers from within the 5th district and I also recorded a ½ hour interview that will be broadcast later in October on PCN.  There were also candidate forums this week in Clearfield and Bradford where I had the chance to discuss the issues with my opponents.  Finally, we finished the week with 2 great events.  On Friday in State College Justin Braz and Bill Van Saun arranged an event with some Penn State students so we could talk with them about how important this election is to young voters.   State Rep. Scott Conklin also spoke with the young voters.  

On Saturday we traveled to Clarion to participate in the Autumn Leaf Festival parade.  It was a great event with special guests Franco Harris and his wife Dana on hand representing the Obama campaign.  The people in Clarion were chanting “Franco, Franco” throughout the parade route and it was really encouraging to hear the cheers for the Democratic floats and the enthusiasm for Barack Obama.  Special thanks go out to Clarion County Democratic Chairman Bill Miller for pulling everything together, State Rep. Matt Ellenberger and the Clarion University Young Dems for their work building 2 great floats.





Franco Harris with Clarion University Young Dems





With State Rep Candidate Matt Ellenberger in front of Democratic Float





Bob Myers from Venango County getting autograph from Franco Harris





Talking with Franco Harris



Schedule for the Upcoming Week:



Tuesday
— Cameron County Debate – 6:00PM

Wednesday — WJAC Interview – 9:00AM

Thursday — Debate at State College High School [TENTATIVE] – 10:00AM, PSU-DuBois Debate – 6:30PM

Friday — Lycoming County Grange Meet the Candidates Forum – 6:00PM, Dinner with the PSU Young Dems – 8:00PM

Saturday — Renovo Flaming Foliage Parage – 12:00PM, Venango County Democratic Dinner – 7:00PM



FUNDRAISING REMINDER
— Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project. We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks. The only way to turn this country around is to send people to Washington who will make the tough decisions. The choice in the 5th district is clear. My opponent regularly states that he supports the fiscal policies of the Bush administration AKA “the Bush tax cuts” and will continue them — More of the Same. While I continue to stress that we must balance the budget, built a surplus and pay down the debt.

In order to get the message out to voters we will need to advertise which costs money. Please contact your family and friends and urge them to financially support our campaign as we move into the final weeks. Donations can be made online through www.actblue.com or by direct mail to McCracken for Congress, PO Box 332, Clearfield PA 16830.



Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

LA-06: Can YOU Outraise Dick Cheney?

Goal ThermometerOn Friday, we learned that Dick Cheney will be coming to Baton Rouge to raise money for Republican hopeful Bill Cassidy on Monday.

Can YOU raise more money than Dick Cheney? Can you help stand up for Don Cazayoux? Don stood with us on the bailout, voting NAY both times the House voted, on Monday and Friday.

Don’s opponent, Bill Cassidy is sitting on a war chest of $565,000, which is certain to grow after Dick comes through for him. And the lies emanating from the Cassidy campaign have already started.

Can YOU raise more money than Dick Cheney? Can you stand up for Don, who voted to increase our investment in alternative energy sources? Can you stand up for a Congressman that gets it, rather than one who believes that running against earmarks will save the economy?

PA-05: McCracken for Congress – Who Understands the Problems Facing the 5th District and the Nation

Throughout the campaign I’ve been involved in several candidate forums with my opponents for the open seat in the 5th Congressional District.  Additionally, during the final 5 weeks of the campaign there will be several additional opportunities for voters in the 5th district to watch all three candidates debate the important issues facing the district and the nation.  The important question voters should consider while watching or listening to these events is which of the three candidates really understands the important problems facing our nation.

There are several issues that clearly define and differentiate where I stand and what I believe in versus my two opponents.  I’ve found that my stances on Health Care Reform, the future of Social Security, understanding the economic problems in the 5th district and, most importantly, fiscal responsibility by the federal government separate me from my two opponents.

Starting with Health Care Reform, my Republican opponent has repeatedly stated “the United States has the best healthcare system in the world” and says “we don’t turn people away.”  But, the sad fact is there are 45.7 million uninsured people in the United States and many more underinsured.  He also regularly says that a “tremendous debate needs to occur” and that the way to solve the nation’s health care crisis is to “peel away the layers of federal regulations.”  

In contrast, I understand that too many of our citizens, both here in the 5th district and across the nation, lack access to affordable health care.  The statement that “we don’t turn people away” is completely false.  The fact remains that people who have no health care coverage do get turned away and those who finally get treatment once it is a critical situation that requires a trip to the emergency room are then faced with harassment from the billing department at the hospital or by a collection agency.  

On health care reform, my opponents are wrong on several counts — we don’t need a “tremendous debate” we’ve talked long enough and we need more detailed solutions than just “peeling away the layers of federal regulations.”  Throughout the campaign, I have proposed as a first step a voluntary national health insurance purchasing pool to provide low cost health care coverage for individuals and small businesses.  Once this proves successful, then we can move forward on the real solution which is universal health care for everyone.

On Social Security, the contrast is also clear.  On numerous occasions my Republican opponent has touted his strong support for the idea of allowing young people to take part of their Social Security to invest in private accounts.  I have stressed that we must work to save and strengthen Social Security for all future generations and any policy that includes private accounts like those proposed by my Republican opponent would only weaken Social Security.  

Of even greater concern is the fact that private financial investments fail as we’ve clearly witnessed in recent weeks.  What happens in the future if funds diverted from Social Security to private accounts fail?  Will the taxpayers in the future have to bailout millions of individuals who chose to go the private accounts route when their investments fail and they have no retirement to fall back on.  The choice must be to save and strengthen Social Security for our children and grandchildren.  Policies that would weaken the system while placing the future retirement of millions of our young people at risk is unacceptable and candidates proposing these ideas should be rejected.

Finally, the one issue that I’m asking the voters in the 5th district to really judge the candidates on is the issue of fiscal responsibility in Washington.  This is an issue I understand as a citizen, as a former school board member and now as a county commissioner.  I will continue to stress that the most important thing we need from Congress is fiscal responsibility with a commitment to balancing the federal budget which currently has a $482 billion deficit, building a solid surplus and, most important, paying down the $9.7 trillion federal government debt.  My Republican opponent continues to build his campaign around “extending the Bush tax cuts” while at the same time proposing increases in spending.  

As proof of my commitment to supporting fiscal responsibility and my honesty with the voters in comparison to my Republican opponent’s mixed signals on fiscal matters go to www.yourcandidatesyourhealth.org and compare both of our responses on increased federal funding for research.  Throughout the campaign and in surveys I’ve been asked to complete, I stress that there is a fiscal crisis in Washington and there is NO MONEY for increased domestic spending until we make the commitment to solving the fiscal crisis.  In contrast, my Republican opponent continues to support the failed fiscal policies from the last 8 years and he continues to suggest that federal funding increases are possible in many areas.

In the closing weeks of the campaign, I’m going to stress to voters to use the fiscal crisis as the key issue to decide the 5th district race.  The question voters must ask themselves is this:  Do you want a person representing you in Congress who understands our biggest problem is the $9.7 trillion debt owed to nations like China and Saudi Arabia OR do you want a person who disregards this threat in favor of extending tax cuts that benefited the most wealthy and affluent citizens?  Perhaps more important to consider is this:  Will we send people to Congress who will confront and solve this threat now, or will we pass responsibility for this problem on to our children and grandchildren?



More on the Bush bailout plan:
 I wrote last week of my concern about President Bush’s plan to provide a $700 billion bailout to rescue failing financial institutions.  Earlier this week I watched President Bush speak to the nation about his plan where he attempted to explain what he was doing and why he wanted to do it.  While we heard the what and the why, he failed to offer the most important information the nation needed to hear — How is he going to pay for it.  Sadly, the facts are out in his proposal that the $700 billion bailout will be paid for by increasing the federal debt limit which means the bailout will be funded with more borrowed money AKA fiscally irresponsible policies.  

If I was a member of Congress now, I could not support any bailout bill that fails to address funding the bailout and I would strongly and vocally oppose adding this cost to the debt.  However, I would be offering solutions on how to raise the funds to pay for the bailout.  Specifically I would suggest the following recommendations to raise revenue to fund the bailout:

1. I would call for immediate investigations to identify any corporate executives who were responsible for this financial fiasco and would demand that the bailout bill include language to freeze and seize the assets of those responsible for the mess.  The assets of those responsible would then be liquidated to pay restitution to the federal government to help fund the bailout.

2. I would propose 2 funding streams that would expire once the bailout costs are recovered.  First, there would be a ½ % stock transfer fee.  In order to waive this fee for private citizens who dabble in the stock market, the first $5,000 per year would be exempt from the fee.  Second, there would be a ½ % mortgage fee that would be waived from the first $75,000 of the mortgage amount so it would not severely impact first time home buyers.

These two suggestions would raise significant revenue to fund the bailout plan and would also keep the cost from being applied to the federal debt.  It would also place responsibility for funding the bailout costs on those who will benefit from the bailout rather than the middle class taxpayers.  The most important language that would be included in regards to both the stock transfer fee and the mortgage fee is that they will expire once the crisis is over.  This will provide the incentive for leaders in the financial services industry to do everything they can to get us through the financial crisis so the added fees to the federal government will expire as soon as possible.



Schedule for the Upcoming Week:

Monday — Newspaper Interviews — The Progress / Clearfield, Clarion, Ridgway and St. Marys, Daily Collegian

Tuesday — WJAC Interview,  Meet the Candidates — Clearfield Chamber of Commerce at Elks Club

Wednesday —  Meeting with Fayette Resources / DuBois, Interviews with PCN and Lewistown Sentinel,  State College Borough Democratic Committee event — 6 PM Ramada Inn in State College

Thursday — Newspaper Interviews during the day,  Debate in Bradford at Pitt / Bradford Campus 6 PM

Friday — Event in State College with PSU Students

Saturday — Clarion Leaf Festival and Parade



FUNDRAISING REMINDER
— Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project.  We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks.  The only way to turn this country around is to send people to Washington who will make the tough decisions.  The choice in the 5th district is clear.  My opponent regularly states that he supports the fiscal policies of the Bush administration AKA “the Bush tax cuts” and will continue them — More of the Same.  While I continue to stress that we must balance the budget, built a surplus and pay down the debt.

In order to get the message out to voters we will need to advertise which costs money.  Please contact your family and friends and urge them to financially support our campaign as we move into the final weeks.  Donations can be made online through www.actblue.com or by direct mail to McCracken for Congress, PO Box 332, Clearfield PA 16830.



Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Rasmussen LA-SEN: Landrieu still cruising (up 13)

So much for the republicans only shot at a Senate pickup this year.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…


Poll taken 9/25/08:

Landrieu (D) 54% (53)

Kennedy (R) 41% (37)

Favorables:

Landrieu (D) – 61/36

Kennedy (R) – 50/39

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Bonus find (LA-Pres):

McCain (R) 55%

Obama (D) 40%

Obama down only 15 actually seems to be good news.  If he can hold it to a 15 point loss in LA it should help us in places like LA-04 and LA-06.

 

14 GOP House Reps in the Northeast – How many after November?

The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.

We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!

Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.

Well now 14 members of that most endangered of species the Northeast House Republican. And can you believe 5 open races in more or less Democrat friendly districts – WOW!

And so on with the show:

CT-04 – D+5 – Shays

It is appropriate that the first race we look at is one of the most competitive, CT-04, pitting Chris Shays against our guy Jim Himes. This one will be a barnburner which makes it curious that I can’t find any polling of the district. Located in the Southwest part of the state it overlaps the New York media market and many people who live in the 4th commute to NYC for work.

As the only GOP survivor in New England Shays seems to be popular but as the Iraq war becomes increasingly unpopular Shays’ fervent support for the war and the President himself makes this one race to watch. Both candidates are cashed up and either could win.

CT-04 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

DE-AL – D+7 – Castle

GOP incumbent Mike Castle is considered safe and I see no reason to not beileve that. Whilst Dem Karen Hartley-Nagle will run a solid campaign this district is unlikely to flip this time around. Of more interest to me is whether Castle will switch parties after the election or retire in 2010 (He had a stroke in 2006). Or if Lt Gov John Carney or Attorney General Beau Biden have a crack Castle may be vulnerable if he runs again in 2010.

DE-AL is another of the 8 districts that Kerry carried in 2004 occupied by a House Republican and in fact this is the district with the highest Kerry vote – 57% – occupied by a Republican.

NJ-02 – D+4.0 – LoBiondo

LoBiondo doged a bullet when Democratic State Senator Jeff Van Drew opted not to run against him in this district that Bush won by less than 1% and that is occupied by 2 Democratic State Senators.

Our candidate David Kurkowski will have a real slog to get this race on the radar with the open races in the 3rd and 7th. Look for Van Drew to run and win in 2010.

NJ-03 – D+3.3 – OPEN

The first of our open races this one sees Democratic State Senator John Adler running against Chris Myers. Bush won this district 51-49 and Adler has a massive COH advantage – 1.46M to 155K. Polling indicates a tight race but I expect Adler to win comfortably as he is well known through the district and genuinely popular.

NJ-04 – R+0.9 – Smith

This central Jersey district was won by Bush in 2004 56 to 44 but was won by Gore in 2000 50 to 46. With a plethora of other competitive races around this one has not been on the radar and probably won’t be. Josh Zeitz is to be applauded for having a go but 2008 probably won’t be his year. 2010 maybe?

NJ-05 – R+4 – Garrett

A district that shouldn’t be on the radar is so largely because our guy Dennis Shulman is a blind rabbi who has been getting a lot of media attention. Won by Bush in 2004 57-43 this is one of two districts in New Jersey that are considered generically safe for Repubs. If Shulman can pull it off then expect a lot of house districts to be picked up by us on election day. Shulman is down 3 to 1 in COH which is ok but he really needs to step up the fundraising.

NJ-07 – R+1 – OPEN

Another open race this one pits 2006 candidate Democrat Linda Stender against State Senator Leonard Lance. Michael Hsing, a conservative republican is also running as an independent which will take votes from Lance. Both camps have released polls that show their candidate is winning. Despite the fact that Bush won this district 53-47 in 2004 I expect Stender to win at her second time at bat as she only lost by about 1000 votes in 2006. Stender has a massive COH advantage – 1.2M-88K btw and that can only help!

NJ-11 – R+6 – Frelinghuysen

This district that Bush won 58-42 in 2004 is the safest GOP in New Jersey and unlikely to flip. Our guy, 2006 candidate Tom Wyka, is putting in a valiant effort but will most likely fall short. This district is a rarity in the Northeast, a safe GOP district.

NY-03 – D+2.1 – King

This Long Island based district is not on the radar for 2008. Democrat Graham Long hasn’t set the world on fire and won’t with all of the oxygen being sucked up by the 13th. This race may have been competitive if 2006 candidate Dave Mejias had run again be he is running for the State Senate instead 🙁 Look for Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi or Mejias to run in 2010. King has said that he will running in the gubernatorial race in 2010 so we should pick this one up then.

NY-13 – D+1 – OPEN

No race in the country has been more of a soap opera than NY-13. I will spare you the details and say simply this. Democratic candidate Michael McMahon will win and win big over a divided dispirited Republican party and their 3rd tier candidate. McMahon is even endorsed by GOP powerbroker Guy Molinari. And he lives on Staten Island a vital prerequisite in this district unlike his republican opponent. Chalk this one up as a win for team blue.

NY-23 – R+0.2 – McHugh

John McHugh is a safe bet for re-election here over a low profile candidate, Mile Oot. The attenton in upstate New York will all be focused on the 25th, 26th and 29th. Sheesh even the unions endorse McHugh who seems genuinely popular. He was rumoured to be retiring in 2008 and may do so in 2010. Either way expect a competitive race here in 2010 not 2008.

NY-25 – D+3 – OPEN

Democrat Dan Maffei never stopped running since 2006 and is considered very likely to win this open seat over Republican Dale Sweetland. He has about $1M COH and of course upstate New York is rapidly bluing. The one poll I have seen had Maffei only a point in front but that was back in April. I think that the NRCC has given up here and with good reason, Dan’s gonna win. NY-25 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

NY-26 – R+3 – OPEN

There was a huge shock here when Democrat Kryzan won a bloody primary over DCCC preferred Jon Powers. Nonetheless Kryzan came out reasonably clean and may well pull it off in a district where Bush won 55-43 in 2004. Kryzan needs to step up her fundraising a lot but again the DCCC has weighed with advertising expenditure. When we see some polling we will get a better sense of how this one is playing but this district is still very much in play as Gopper Chris Lee hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Watch this space.

NY-29 – R+5 – Kuhl

Democratic 2006 candidate Eric Massa is back for a rematch in this upstate district that is the most GOP friendly district in New York. Bush won 56-42 in 2004. Don’t discount Massa though as incumbent Randy “shotgun” Kuhl is certainly vulnerable (and repellant). Haven’t seen any public polling here but the candidates are basically at parity in terms of COH and the DCCC is stumping up for advertising big time. Expect a close race.

So whilst the Northeast won’t provide much excitement at the Presidential level this year the House races (and Senate BTW) will be all the fun of the fair. I think that we will probably win between 4 and 7 of these races further decimating an already shredded GOP. The Northeast is well on the way to becoming a one party region and this year will see further shifts in that direction.

421 House races filled for 2008 – Election day here we come

Candidate filing is now complete and whilst we won’t do as well as 2006 we still have candidates in 421 districts. Oh yeh and I am flying over from Australia in 10 days to spend the rest of the campaign volunteering for a house candidate!

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

421 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 185 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 185

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 0

Districts without any candidates – 0

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 14

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-07 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

None

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

None

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-01 – R+12,

Our candidate withdrew.

AL-06 – R+25,

No candidate for the second election in a row.

AR-03 – R+11,

Our candidatre withdrew all Arkansas incumbents unopposed (3D, 1R and Democrtaic Senator Mark Pryor).

CA-19 – R+10,

Our candidate withdrew.

CA-22 – R+16,

No candidate appeared.

KY-05 – R+8,

Our candidate withdrew to run in the Senate Primary (He got trounced).

LA-05 – R+10,

Our likely candidate declined to run.

TX-01 – R+17,

Our 2006 candidate is running as an Independent.

TX-02 – R+12,

A candidate set up an exploratory committee but did not go on with it.

TX-05 – R+16,

Our candidate didn’t file.

TX-11 – R+25,

Our candidate filed too late.

TX-14 – R+14,

Our candidate switched parties!

TX-21 – R+13,

A candidate filed with the FEC but then didn’t file with the SOS.

WI-05 – R+12,

Our candidate withdrew.

So there you go :). 421 is still a fantastic effort but gee it could have easily been 430+.

As for me I will be spending the last five weeks of the campaign volunteering for Dan Seals in IL-10 (Yeh my version of a holiday), followed by a couple of weeks in NYC hanging out and playing tourist.

The first 2010 House diary will be posted in January with a lot less than 199 GOP districts to find candidates for

Go Obama!!!

Benawu