Tag: Senate

(I’m working on what seems to be shaping up to become an all-nighter of a research paper, so please use this thread to discuss the latest goings-on in Louisiana. I’m heartened to hear that Breaux’s legal team believes that “citizenship” isn’t much of an obstacle–and indeed, “citizen” as a legal term is a much broader requirement than “resident”. – promoted by James L.)

1. John Breaux Is A Citizen

Highlight:

Breaux said there’s no question that he meets the state Constitution’s requirement of being a “citizen” of Louisiana for the past five years, even though he changed his voter registration to Maryland in 2005.

“I don’t just own two lots in Crowley. It is my family home. When my mama died, I inherited half of it. My dad lives there. We pay taxes on it. My wife, Lois, owns property in Louisiana,” Breaux said. “I never revoked my citizenship in Louisiana.”

Lawyers have looked at the constitutional requirement and determined he meets the citizenship requirement, Breaux said.

Breaux will announce in the “very near future,” or after he has a discussion with Blanco.  Foster Campell will still run, and Jindal’s supporters have hijacked the comments thread attached to the article.  But this is my favorite comment:

But his citizenship is not the issue, he said.

“The issues are health care, education and rebuilding. That’s what it is all about,” Breaux said.

2. Mary Landrieu Is Above 50%

Highlight:

GOP Sets Sights on Landrieu

The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a poll yesterday aimed at demonstrating the vulnerability of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) in her 2008 reelection bid.

Fifty-one percent of the sample said they would vote to reelect Landrieu and 42 percent said they would consider someone new — a sign, according to pollster Glen Bolger, that Landrieu is a “vulnerable Democratic incumbent.”

Although Bolger writes that “when voters are given a choice between Landrieu and a Republican they know, they invariably choose the Republican,” the poll memo includes data for only one statewide head-to-head matchup: Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-La.), who is running for governor this year, led Landrieu by 55 percent to 39 percent. No matchup between Landrieu and Rep. Richard H. Baker (La.) — the Republicans’ preferred candidate — is mentioned in the memo.

Landrieu won her seat in 1996 by 5,788 votes and was reelected in 2002 with 52 percent of the vote.

One problem to consider is the NRSC’s decision to poll Landrieu against Jindal, especially as Breaux is still considering a gubernatorial bid.  Another is the inherent bias of this Republican poll: Is Landrieu more popular than the results claim?  And would Jindal really have a chance if Breaux defeats him in 2007?  And lastly, is Landrieu as vulnerable as the RSCC claims when over 50% of Louisianans want her reelected?

Race Tracker: LA-Sen

This is only thinking on my part, but it seems that rather than having Al Sharpton running of prez, which it looks like he’s going to, have him run for Lindsey Gramm’s seat.

We don’t have much of a chance at this seat anyway, he may be a bit of a maverick, but they still like their repubs down in SC.  What Sharpton has is the angle, he’d be running for the seat once held by the man who owned his ancestors.  It would generate plenty of media attention and would certainly give him a better chance than any of the sacrificial lambs the SC legislature would throw out at him.  Now, I know what many of you are thinking “he’d be too controversial, he’d galvanize the republicans.”  Hillary Clinton wouldn’t do that?  Even if he did galvanize the republicans, their electoral votes are in their court (maybe not if Edwards is the nom, but he probably won’t be) as are both senate seats, both houses of the legislature, (by wide margins in the house) and all but two of their congressman.  Even if Sharpton did Galvanize the right, it wouldn’t do much, and it might even be off set by an increased surge in the African American vote.  At the very least, it keep him out of the presidential race and prevents splitting the African American vote harming Obama.  No offense to Sharpton, but if you’re going to run for president, GET ELECTED TO SOMETHING ELSE FIRST!  That’s why the republicans didn’t back Steve Forbes or Keyes.

[Cross-posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

As we look at the 2008 Senate map, and where we have pick-up opportunities, there are some obvious choices for who would be our best candidate, and there are some not so obvious choices.

From Sebelius in Kansas to Allen in Maine to Easley in North Carolina to a number of choices in New Hampshire to fewer choices in Idaho, there is much to discuss.

Who is your ideal 2008 Senate candidate? Who would you like to see run?

More below the fold.

SEEMS OBVIOUS

Colorado (Wayne Allard) – U.S. Rep. Mark Udall: he’s all-but-in, so no need for the hard sell, and he’s the frontrunner with momentum while the CO-GOP is looking to a potentially nasty primary

Kansas (Pat Roberts) – Governor Kathleen Sebelius: enjoys a 67-29 approval-disapproval as Governor

Maine (Susan Collins) – U.S. Rep. Tom Allen: one of only two ME Congressmen, he is routinely re-elected with 60+% of the vote

Mississippi (Thad Cochran) – Former state Attorney General Mike Moore: the most popular Democrat in Mississippi

Nebraska (Chuck Hagel) – Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey: a bright star on a relatively shallow bench

North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole) – Governor Mike Easley: already beating Elizabeth Dole in polling

Virginia (John Warner) – Former Governor Mark Warner: left the Governor’s office with an 80+% approval rating

SEEMS FAIRLY OBVIOUS

Alaska (Ted Stevens) – Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich: With Tony Knowles’ electoral results statewide dropping from ’98 to ’04 to ’06, it seems that Begich’s star is the fasting rising among AK-Dems

Oregon (Gordon Smith) – U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer: a popular Democrat re-elected with larger totals each successive election, he seems to be politically preparing for a statewide bid

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander) – Governor Phil Bredesen: enjoys a monstrous 73-24 approval rating, while Lamar is at 53-36

Wyoming (Mike Enzi) – Governor Dave Freudenthal/Former Congressional candidate Gary Trauner: pretty much the only two high profile Democrats in the state at the moment; Freudenthal enjoys a mammoth 77-19 approval, but has indicated no interest in the race; Trauner came within about 1,000 votes of winning the At-Large Congressional seat in 2006

SEEMS LESS OBVIOUS (deep benches) – who would you prefer?

Minnesota (Norm Coleman) – do we choose the high-profile satirist, the millionaire public interest attorney, or well-known legislators?

New Hampshire (John Sununu) – do we choose the popular, young Mayor, the prominent activist, the progressive businessman, or the medical professor/former astronaut? An embarrassment of riches that not only should scare Sununu but also Gregg in ’10

New Mexico (Pete Domenici) – several prominent Congresspeople and current and former statewide elected officials – just waiting on Domenici to make a retire or run for re-elect decision

SEEMS LESS OBVIOUS (slimmer or quieter benches) – who are your picks?
Alabama (Jeff Sessions)
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Idaho (Larry Craig)
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)
Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe)
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
Texas (John Cornyn)

Democrats hoping for an open U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi will apparently have to wait a few more election cycles. Incumbent GOP Sen. Thad Cochran started a major fundraising drive with a fundraiser in Jackson Tuesday night and is expected to raise some $650,000.00 this week.

While not yet committing to a 2008 race Cochran indicated he was leaning heavily toward a race despite reports in recent months that he would like to retire. If Cochran had retired the Mississippi Democratic Party had a number of strong candidates who would have a good chance to return the seat to Democratic hands. They included former Gov. Ray Mabus, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, Cong. Gene Taylor, former Cong. Ronnie Shows, former Sec. of Agriculture and Cong. Mike Espy, and others.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole is still showing vulnerability in recent polls, even if her opponent in not Mike Easley. A new poll has Dole leading 45-30 against Congressman Bob Etheridge.

A new poll out Wednesday has Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole dominating a hypothetical race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge, but the numbers expose a few weaknesses for the incumbent senator, the poll’s author said.

Dole, of Salisbury, has been dogged by rumors about whether she will run in 2008, especially in the wake of a catastrophic outcome for Senate Republicans after her term as chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign.

Dole says she’s running.

The poll, by Public Policy Polling, shows Dole running ahead of Etheridge, 45 percent to 30 percent, among likely voters.

But Dean Debnam, president of the company, pointed out that Dole enjoys more name recognition than Etheridge, a Lillington congressman known mostly in his district south and east of the Triangle.

“Dole is not necessarily in a very strong position,” Debnam said.

Etheridge’s name has been floated in the past as a possible senatorial candidate. His spokeswoman said Wednesday he isn’t planning a Senate run in 2008.

“Right now his focus is on working on his committees on issues important to North Carolina,” said spokeswoman Joanne Peters.

Dole political consultant Mark Stephens disputed the accuracy of the poll, which was conducted through automatic phone calls. Respondents signaled their choices by punching numbers on the phone.

“I don’t know a campaign worth its salt that would utilize this kind of polling,” Stephens said. “They don’t even know who they’re talking to on the other end of the phone. It could be a 12-year-old kid.”

Debnam said the polling group will pit other hypothetical candidates, perhaps including U.S. Rep. Brad Miller of Raleigh, against Dole in future polls.

A poll by the group last month showed Gov. Mike Easley beating Dole by 44 percent to 41 percent.

The Dole-Etheridge poll was conducted Monday by automatic phone calls of 448 likely voters. The survey’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Granted, the sample size is small, but it mirrors similar problems she is having in a hypothetical match-up against former Gov. Easley, who has thus far declined to run. Some will also point to Jesse Helms who constantly polled terribly but won elections. But I would argue that Dole does not command the rabid loyalty that Helms did. She’s clearly vulnerable and we need to keep up the pressure.

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

(Cross-posted on my DKos diary.  I originally posted this to my blog on February 4, but I want to get the input of the DKos and SSP communities on the topic.  What have you heard in your states?  Note that since I posted this, Thad Cochran has delayed his retirement vs. re-election bid decision, and Pete Domenici has made stronger assertions toward a re-election bid.  Also, Frank Lautenberg has made his intentions crystal clear.)

We know that the numbers favor Senate Democrats in 2008.  21 GOP vs. 12 Democratic Senators up for re-election gives the GOP a great deal more territory to have to protect.  And, as hard as it can be to hold incumbent seats, it’s even harder to retain open seats.  This again favors the Democrats, as there are many more Republican Senators on “Retirement Watch.”

DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has said that he has gotten assurances from every Democratic Senator that they are all running for re-election, except for Iowa’s Tom Harkin, who has since demonstrated public steps toward a re-election bid.

Aside from Harkin, I’m not sold that New Jersey’s Frank Lautenberg is definitely going to run for re-election, which might not be a bad thing given Lautenberg’s low approval ratings and NJ’s wealth of Democratic Congresspeople waiting for a promotion, not to mention that Lautenberg is the Democrats’ oldest 2008 incumbent by just over a decade.

Also, Delaware’s Joe Biden is looking at the White House, but is hardly a favorite to win the nomination in 2008, meaning that he will likely opt for Senate re-election and have plenty of time to do so.

This leaves only the recovering Tim Johnson of South Dakota as a significant question mark, and even his camp is showing signs, from staffing to fundraising, that a re-election bid could still be on the horizon, health-permitting.

Meanwhile, more than half of the GOP’s 21 incumbents are on the retirement watch spectrum.  After spending much of the last decade-plus in the majority party, many of these Senators will find that spending 2007 in the minority will make for a less pleasant work environment.  And with many states, like Colorado and Virginia, on a blue-trend, some Republican Senators may opt for retirement rather than risking ending their career on a loss.  Beyond that, many Republican Senators are just really old.

1) Colorado’s Wayne Allard: Definitely retiring

2) Maine’s Susan Collins: Is under a self-imposed term-limit-pledge, but is planning a re-election bid.  However, if Tom Allen gets in the race and Collins’ broken promise becomes a major issue, with polling going strongly Allen’s way, it’s not inconceivable that Collins would step aside

3) Virginia’s John Warner: Publicly leans one way, then publicly leans the other – definitely considering retirement

4) Alaska’s Ted Stevens: Is 200 years old and threatens to retire every time he doesn’t get his way on a vote – claims to be preparing for a re-election bid, but we’ll see

5) Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Publicly undecided on a re-election bid and says he may not make up his mind until November

6) Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Considering a White House bid, with rumors afoot that he may retire from the Senate regardless of a Presidential bid

7) Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Was considering retiring until he received choice committee assignments – still not publicly confirmed for re-election, though – if he dislikes serving in the minority enough, he may just hang it up

8) New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: not publicly committed to a re-election bid, as rumors of retirement thoughts persist, as well as rumors of a questionable mental state, including wandering the halls of Congress in his pajamas

9) North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole: her staff has claimed that she’s planning on re-election, but she has not made any definitive comments; meanwhile, many factors, including her age, her horrible job as NRSC Chair, and her recent hip replacement, suggest that retirement may be a strong possibility – also, polling has the reluctant Mike Easley ahead of Dole; if he got in, maybe she’d prefer to avoid a tough re-election campaign

10) Texas’ John Cornyn: While he is very clearing planning a re-election bid, he is also one of Bush’s top choices (if not Bush’s first choice) for a Supreme Court opening should there be one more before the end of Bush’s term – granted, I’d rather have Cornyn in the Senate running for re-election than enjoying a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court

11) Oklahoma’s Jim Inhofe: Rumors exist that he is considering retirement, though this is a rare situation (perhaps akin to NJ’s Lautenberg) where the non-incumbent party might have an easier time beating the incumbent than a replacement (say former Governor Frank Keating)

12) Idaho’s Larry Craig: Another situation of more rumors circulating while Craig waits on a formal public announcement one way or the other

Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), John Sununu (NH)

Though only one retirement is announced, if the stars aligned well enough, the GOP could face a meltdown with more than a half-dozen retirements.  While we can’t hang our hats on that many open seats, we can probably expect a couple more to follow Wayne Allard.

Cross-posted from Minnesota Campaign Report – check back for more news on Franken’s kickoff.  Robin Marty is liveblogging Franken’s final show on Air America here at Minnesota Monitor – check that out too!

Today, entertainer Al Franken has made official his candidacy for the DFL nomination for U.S. Senate.

In his announcement, Franken discussed his background and focused on what government can do for families:  namely education assistance and social security: 

Your government should have your back.  That should be our mission in Washington, the one FDR gave us during another challenging time: freedom from fear.

Franken’s announcement follows that of fellow DFLer and trial lawyer Mike Ciresi, who announced the formation of an exploratory committee earlier this week.  Some twenty months from now, the DFL nominee will face off against incumbent Republican Norm Coleman for the seat once held by Paul Wellstone.

Some other choice quotes:

It’s different for middle-class families, too.  These families are being squeezed harder and harder every year.  Maybe you know what it’s like to be one health crisis away from bankruptcy. Maybe you, or your parents or grandparents, can’t afford prescriptions.  Maybe you have kids, and you’re worried about paying for their college.  Maybe someone you love is in Iraq, and you don’t know how long they’ll have to stay there, or what will happen when they come home.

…

President Clinton used to say that there’s nothing wrong with America that can’t be fixed by what’s right with America, or, as I would add, by what’s right with Minnesota.  We can lead the fight against global warming and dependence on foreign oil by developing new sources of renewable energy-and create good Minnesota jobs in the process.  We can lead the nation in finding life-saving cures by harnessing the potential of stem-cell research.  We can lead the nation by sending someone to the Senate who’ll be a voice for a strong and responsible America, one that uses its relationship with our allies to create a better and more secure world for ourselves and for future generations.

You’ll find the complete text of Franken’s announcement speech in the extended entry.

Hi, I’m Al Franken. I’m running for the United States Senate here in Minnesota.

I’d like to talk to you about why I’m running.

I’m not a typical politician.  I’ve spent my career as a comedian. Minnesotans have a right to be skeptical about whether I’m ready for this challenge, and to wonder how seriously I would take the responsibility that I’m asking you to give me.

I want you to know: nothing means more to me than making government work better for the working families of this state, and over the next twenty months I look forward to proving to you that I take these issues seriously. 

Today, however, I want to take a few moments to explain to you why I take these issues personally. 

My family moved to Albert Lea from New Jersey when I was four years old.  My dad never graduated high school and never had a career as such, but my mom’s father, my grandpa, owned a quilting factory out East and gave my dad a chance to start up a new factory in Albert Lea.  After about two years, the factory failed, and we moved up to the Twin Cities.

Years later, I asked my dad, “Why Albert Lea?”  And he said, “Well, your grandfather wanted to open a factory in the Midwest, and the railroad went through Albert Lea.”

So, I asked him, “Why did the factory fail?”

And he said, “Well, it went through Albert Lea, but it wouldn’t stop.”

That was my dad – great guy, terrible businessman.  He got a job as a printing salesman, and my mom worked as a real estate agent.  The four of us – I have an older brother, Owen – lived in a two-bedroom, one-bath house in St. Louis Park.

That was my childhood.  I grew up in a hard-working middle class family just like many of yours.  And as a middle-class kid growing up in Minnesota back then, I felt like the luckiest kid in the world.  And I was.

My wife, Franni, whom I met our freshman year of college, wasn’t quite as lucky.  When she was seventeen months old, her dad – a decorated veteran of World War II – died in a car accident, leaving her mother, my mother-in-law, widowed with five kids.

My mother-in-law worked in the produce department of a grocery store, but that family made it because of Social Security survivor benefits.  Sometimes there wasn’t enough food on the table, sometimes they turned off the heat in the winter – this was in Portland, Maine, almost as cold as Minnesota – but they made it.

Every single one of the four girls in Franni’s family went to college, thanks to Pell Grants and other scholarships.  My brother-in-law, Neil, went into the Coast Guard, where he became an electrical engineer.

And my mother-in-law got herself a $300 GI loan to fix her roof, and used the money instead to go to the University of Maine.  She became a grade school teacher, teaching Title One kids – poor kids – and so her loan was forgiven.

My mother-in-law and every single one of those five kids became a productive member of society.  Conservatives like to say that people need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps – and that’s a great idea.  But first, you’ve got to have the boots.  And the government gave my wife’s family the boots.

That’s what progressives like me believe the government is there for.  To provide security for middle-class families like the one I grew up in, and opportunity for working poor families like the one Franni grew up in.

By the way, I stole that boots line from Tim Walz, our great new congressman from Southern Minnesota. Tim’s father died when he was a kid, and he and his brother and his mom made it because of Social Security. 

Last year I traveled all over the state of Minnesota on behalf of Tim and other Democrats: from Waseca and Wabasha up to Fergus Falls and Detroit Lakes, over to Bemidji and the Iron Range, from Duluth down to Albert Lea, I was in Hastings and all over the metro, up in St. Cloud a few times, eating a lot of beans and buns and burgers and maybe a few too many Dairy Queens along the way.  But most importantly, I talked to Minnesotans and listened. 

They told me that they’re sick of politics as usual-and they’re sick of the usual politicians.

And I’ll tell you what else they told me.  It’s different now than it was for me and Franni.  When Franni’s sisters were using them to go to college, Pell Grants paid for 90% of a college education.  Today, they pay for 40%.  And President Bush, with the help of his Republican allies in Congress, have even tried to privatize Social Security.  You should have heard Franni when they tried to do that.

It’s different for middle-class families, too.  These families are being squeezed harder and harder every year.  Maybe you know what it’s like to be one health crisis away from bankruptcy. Maybe you, or your parents or grandparents, can’t afford prescriptions.  Maybe you have kids, and you’re worried about paying for their college.  Maybe someone you love is in Iraq, and you don’t know how long they’ll have to stay there, or what will happen when they come home.

Middle-class families today struggle with that feeling of insecurity-the sense that things can fall apart without notice, outside of your control.

Your government should have your back.  That should be our mission in Washington, the one FDR gave us during another challenging time: freedom from fear.

Americans have never backed away from challenges. And Minnesotans have always led the way. Our state has sent strong, progressive leaders to Washington-from Hubert Humphrey to Walter Mondale to Paul Wellstone, and now to Amy Klobuchar. Minnesota’s public servants might not always look and sound like typical politicians, but they stand by their principles and lead by their values. 

That’s the kind of leader I think we need more of these days, and that’s the kind of Senator I’ll be.

President Clinton used to say that there’s nothing wrong with America that can’t be fixed by what’s right with America, or, as I would add, by what’s right with Minnesota.  We can lead the fight against global warming and dependence on foreign oil by developing new sources of renewable energy-and create good Minnesota jobs in the process.  We can lead the nation in finding life-saving cures by harnessing the potential of stem-cell research.  We can lead the nation by sending someone to the Senate who’ll be a voice for a strong and responsible America, one that uses its relationship with our allies to create a better and more secure world for ourselves and for future generations.

My political hero is Paul Wellstone.  He used to say, “The future belongs to those who are passionate and work hard.” I may be a comedian by trade, but I’m passionate about the issues that matter to your family because they mattered to mine, too.  And I’m ready to work as hard as I can to help us build a better future together.

Thanks for listening, and I’ll see you on the trail.

1. Colorado (R-Open Seat): Leans Democratic. Over the past 4 years, Colorado has shifted towards the Democrats. This Rocky Mountain State has recently added two new Democratic Congressman, a Democratic Senator and a Democratic Governor. Rep. Mark Udall’s prodigious war chest combined with the Convention boost make him the early favorite to win this seat.
2. Sen. John Sununu:  The great wave of 2006 was the largest in the last Republican bastion in the Northeast. If thew voters of New Hampshire are willing to elect Carol Shea-Porter to Congress?. The Stonybrook Farms founder could be a  formidable liberal in the nobles oblige type of Ted Kennedy and Jon Corzine.
3.  Sen. Norm Coleman :  Minnesota is a true swing state that is once again swinging Democratic after 8 years of movement towards the GOP. If R.T Rybak or Rep. McCollum runs, Coleman will lose. This race will be decided by candidate recruitment.
4. Sen. Susan Collins:  We already have a candidate, Rep. Tom Allen, but Collins is a very savvy pol who has a 70% approval rating. This race will be a test of how far left the Northeast has moved.
5. Sen. Gordon Smith: Slight GOP lean. The last Republican Senator representing a  state bordering the Pacific. Earl Blumenauer and Peter DeFazio probably won’t run because of their newly gained power in the House. Randall Edwards could be a strong candidate for Democrats.
6.  Sen. Elizabeth Dole: Toss-up if Gov. Mike Easley runs, otherwise, this race has a solid GOP lean.
7. Easley would win 44 percent to 41 percent, according to a survey of 501 likely voters conducted Jan. 22 by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh. The difference is within the poll’s margin of sampling error of 4.3 percentage points.
8. Virginia/ Nebraska/ New Mexico, if any of the GOP incumbents in these states retire, Democrats have a good shot at picking up some of these seats.

Onto the Democrats.

1. Sen. Mary Landrieu: Leans GOP.  Mary Landrieu previous winning percentages against third tier GOP candidates were 4% and 0%, respectively. She’s always been a controversial and polarizing l figure and her aggressive courting of Republican voters has alienated traditionally Democratic African Americans.  Hurricane Katrina has displaced many of these voters and has created a skepticism of government among the remaining ones. Mayor Nagin and  Bobby Jindal will actively work to undermine her bid for reelection. If she wins, it’s because of another inexplicable GOP recruiting failure.
2. Sen. Tim Johnson. If Mike Rounds runs, it’s competitive. Otherwise, six more years for Tim Johnson.
3. Sen. Tom Harkin. If Latham runs, then this race will be closer to Harkin’s victory over Rep. Lightfoot than his victory over Rep. Ganske. If Steve King runs, expect another blowout. Either way, Harkin will put another  trophy of a Republican Congressman on his wall.

4. Sen. Mark Pryor: Likely Democratic. This race get interesting if Mike Huckabee is the nominee for the GOP.  I still think Pryor wins because of his name, his moderate views and the absence of a GOP bench in Arkansas.
5. The rest? Barring retirements, they’re all shoe-ins.

The Senate races will come down to recruiting, the strength of each party’s  national ticket, local factors and, of course, the War in Iraq.

Best scenario for Democrats : 57-41-2 Democratic Majority.

Best scenario for the GOP: 50-49-1. GOP Majority, but only if the GOP holds the Oval Office.

In a front page story in Sunday’s Clarion Ledger incumbent U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran indicated he is undecided on whether he will run for another term in 2008. In an interview with the state’s largest newspaper Cochran, who is outgoing Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, indicated disappointment in being able to get only 2 bills passed in the current session because Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee was “slow to move them to the Senate floor”. Cochran described the GOP decision to shift the burden of approving the budget to Democrats in January as “baseless” and indicated that he has a good working relationship with the incoming Appropriations Chairman Sen. Robert C. Byrd.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

(I just like this diary. – promoted by DavidNYC)

The November approval numbers are out from SurveyUSA. Let’s see how the class of 2008 is faring.

How unpopular is Frank Lautenberg this month? All numbers represent net spproval (approve minus disapprove).

100. DeWine -25%
99. Talent -22%
98. Santorum -21%
97. Burns -15%
96. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) -5%

Picture a huge cliff. Now picture Santorum, Talent, Burns, and Dewine being thrown off of it by angry voters. Lautenberg is hanging on the edge of that cliff, but at least he’s a long way from those other four guys… so far. And the vibe of the ’06 election seems to be helping – he’s climbed 7 points since last month. It’s a good start, Frank, but you’re going to have to build it up from there.

95. Mel Martinez -3%

OK, I feel better now. Kudos to the brilliance of the GOP for making their least popular senator the face of their party. Wow.

94. Bunning -3%
93. Kyl -2%

OK, you can get re-elected at -2%. There hope for you, Frank.

92. John Kerry (D-MA) -2%

Presidential bid’s not looking good, John. At this rate, you might not even win the presidential primary in your own state. The infamous gaffe, repeated ad naseum by the media just like the Dean Scream, drops Kerry a whopping 16%. Ouch. No matter what happens, his seat will stay in Democratic hands, though. It’s Massachusetts.

91. Dayton -1%
90. Menendez 0%

Some more hope for Frank – a little proof that New Jerseys are willing to hold their nose and vote for a Democrat they don’t much like. While Dewine and Talent nosedived 8% and 17% respectively this month, Menendez soars 13% and gets re-elected.

89. Wayne Allard (R-CO) 1%

Allard gains 5% this month despite the national trends.

88. Burr 2%
87. Sarbanes 2%
86. John Sununu (R-NH) 3%

Sununu dives 8% from last month. The mood in NH has gotten quite frosty to the GOP.

85. Frist 3%
84. John Cornyn (R-TX) 3%

Cornyn gains 6% this month. Still makes a good target.

83. Allen 4%
82. Voinovich 4%
81. Norm Coleman (R-MN) 5%

Coleman stays the same as he was last month, which is 3% better than recently re-elected governor Pawlenty. But remember, there’s nobody out campaigning against him yet, so this is still a good position for us to start from.

80. James Inhofe (R-OK) 5%
79. Chafee 6%

Inhofe gains 14% this month, but he’s not out of the woods yet as Chafee’s ranking shows. Chafee gains 5% himself, possibly for his post-election declaration that he wasn’t sure if he was a Republican anymore.

To be updated tomorrow. Wow, I got front-paged! I better finish this now…

78. Bond 8%
77. Reid 9%
76. Lieberman 9%
75. Gregg 11%
74. Specter 11%
73. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) 12%
72. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) 12%

Lieberman gains 4% and is re-elected, so we probably want to see our targets move below 9% net approval. Landrieu is our lowest-rated red-stater, so it’s good to see her above the Chafee line; with all the positive Dem mojo, however, her gain of merely 2% this month is underwhelming. A rough campaign could easily bring her down into the danger zone, so Schumer will need to invest here. Dole is our next target, and you can see we’ll need a good challenger (or some Macaca-like gaffes, or retirement) to bring her down in reddish NC. Momentum is on our side at the moment – she falls 8% from last month, and is down from a high of +30% in July.

71. Coburn 12%
70. Murkowski 13%
69. Tom Harkin (D-IA) 13%
68. Richard Durbin (D-IL) 15%

A presidential election year in Iowa – expect Harkin to get a strong challenger who declares early, because every GOP wannabe-prez will be helping him raise money. Harkin gains 6% this month – that’s a good thing. Durbin’s pretty safe in blue Illinois but gains only 1% this month as Dems fail to pick off Mark Kirk or Hyde’s open seat in the House.

67. DeMint 15%
66. Pat Roberts (R-KS) 15%
65. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) 15%

Roberts and McConnell are basically in pre-Macaca George Allen territory. In order to pick them off, we’d need two out of three factors: A strong candidate (Sebelius, Chandler), a memorable gaffe or scandal, and/or retirement. Before we get too optimistic, remember that the Tennesee race had all these three factors (Frist retires and is clouded by scandal, Corker had the 911 call fiasco and his abortion flip-flop, and Ford, a sitting congressman, ran a very strong campaign) and we still lost. Roberts gains 10% this month (ouch) and McConnell gains 3.

64. Isakson 15%
63. Brownback 16%
62. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) 16%
61. Gordon Smith (R-OR) 17%
60. Russ Feingold 17%
59. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) 17%

Beating Chambliss would feel pretty damn good, and his numbers aren’t unreachable. On the downside, he gained 9% this month – we need momentum going the other direction. Smith gains 5%, another trend we need to reverse – Oregon ain’t as blue as Rhode Island. Alexander gains 13%, probably on the vibes of the GOP noise machine that pushed a turd like Corker into Frist’s open seat. When you consider how much lower Frist’s numbers are, this does not look like a first or even second tier opportunity.

58. Akaka 17%
57. Murray 18%
56. Lincoln 18%
55. Carl Levin (D-MI) 18%
54. Mark Pryor (D-AR) 19%

Stabenow’s re-election brings positive vibes in Michigan, as Levin gains 12%. This seat’s safe unless he retires. Too bad Beebe doesn’t seem to have done the same for Pryor, who actually drops 6% this month. He’s still in pretty safe territory for Arkansas, however, which is looking reddish in presidential elections but bluish for everything else.

53. Boxer 20%
52. Bill Nelson 20%
51. Stabenow 20%
50. Dodd 20%
49. Salazar 21%
48. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) 22%

Graham gains 12% this month. Unless the Club For Growth or some ultrareligious 3rd party candidate intervenes in the primary, this seat stays red.

OK, I’ll finish the rest when I get home tonight. Thanks for front-paging me, David!Stupid internet connection problems. Here goes.

47. Ensign 22%
46. Mikulski 23%
45. Hutchinson 24%
44. Feinstein 25%
43. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) 25%
42. Thune 25%
41. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) 25%

Hagel drops 4%, but it doesn’t matter. He’s sharp, polished, willing to be a maverick, politically savvy, and besides which, he owns the voting machines. And it’s Nebraska. All we can do is hope he runs for president and vacates his seat. Sessions gains 7% this month. If you decide to run, Artur, good luck – you’ll need it.

40. Bennett 25%
39. Wyden 26%
38. Schumer 27%
37. McCain 27%

08′ hopeful McCain loses 2%, victorious DSCC chair Schumer gains 11%. Nice.

36. Cantwell 28%
35. Ted Stevens (R-AK) 28%
34. Larry Craig (R-ID) 29%

Incidentally, Cantwell jumped 23% in the past month. Now that’s a damn fine endgame. Stevens drops 3%, but his approval ratings aren’t like a truck you can dump on – it’s a series of tubes! No, it’s a series of numbers that never dip below 26%. Just retire, you old bastard! Stop teasing and do it – spend some time with your family before you hop on the metaphorical Bridge to Nowhere. Craig drops 6%, but seriously… Idaho. If we can’t defeat a guy like Bill Sali… Craig’d have to dropkick Santa Claus to lose this race.

33. Shelby – 29%
32. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) – 29%
31. Joe Biden (D-DE) – 29%

Not even Shelley Moore Capito could beat Rockefeller without a good scandal, even though he drops 6% this month. No one will mount a credible campaign against Joe Biden – in Delaware, the only thing safer than a popular incumbent is a popular incumbent Democrat. He gains 10% this month on his son’s coattails, or maybe vice versa. Of course, there’s that whole presidential run to think about…

30. Hatch 30%
29. Kennedy 31%
28. Bayh 31%
27. John Warner (R-VA) 32%

OK, seriously, when’s the last time a very popular senator was beaten by a very popular governor? Why is everyone so excited about the prospect of Mark Warner running here? George Allen lost because he’s a dickhead, always has been, always will be. John Warner’s not going to make those kind of mistakes. He gains 1% this month, but seriously, whatever. Maybe he’ll retire, but I heard he won’t.

26. Crapo 32%
25. Jeffords 34%
24. Thad Cochran (R-MS) 36%

Cochran gains 3%, and hasn’t said anything about retiring yet. No sense in thinking about this now when Barbour will be up for re-election in ’07.

All right, I need to get to bed. I’ll finish tomorrow – dumb internet problems prevented me from finishing tonight. Let’s do this.

23. Vitter 38%
22. Grassley 38%
21. Kohl 39%
20. Mike Enzi (R-WY) 39%
19. Jack Reed (D-RI) 39%

Nothing to see here. Move along. Kohl shows us what happens to Senators with approval this high – they get re-elected without any trouble. Enzi gains 12%, Reed gains 1% (and pretty much never dips below 35%).

18. Lott 39%
17. Byrd 40%
16. Lugar 41%
15. Inouye 42%
14. Ben Nelson 42%
13. Carper 43%
12. Thomas 43%
11. Pete Domenici (R-NM) 43%
10. Tim Johnson (D-SD) 44%

Domenici gains 12% – if he runs, he wins, and he says he’s gonna run. Maybe he wants to be Senate President Pro Tem someday, if Stevens retires and the Democrats lose the Senate. Johnson gains 2% – why would anyone want to even try to seriously challenge this guy? I expect top tier challengers to stay away for now. Johnson’s numbers are stellar and stable.

9. Bingaman 44%
8. Leahy 46%
7. Obama 48%
6. Max Baucus (D-MT) – 49%

Believe it or not, Baucus might not be as safe as these numbers suggest. He gains a whopping 18% on the strength of Montana’s blue wave. Before that though, his numbers were more “great” than “incredible”. If support for Tester, Schweitzer, and the Democrats remains high, Baucus is safe. If our party takes a fall in Montana, however, Denny Rehberg or Marc Racicot might – *might* – make a race of this.

5. Clinton 50%
4. Susan Collins (R-ME) 50%
3. Conrad 54%
2. Dorgan 56%
1. Snowe 62%

Hilary gains 14% – NY luuurrrrvvves her now. That’s a lot of electoral votes in her pocket. Maybe we shouldn’t be working so hard to dis her, seeing as how in less than 2 years we’ll probably be trying to get her elected in the general. I’m not saying we should all support her right now or anything, just that we should stop acting like she’s the boogeyman that the right wants her to be.

So, Susan Collins… Look. Lincoln Chafee’s BEST number this season was 19% net approval. Susan Collins’ WORST number was 41% net approval. Tom Allen has a better chance of being struck by lightning than unseating Collins head-to-head. Here’s hoping she honors her term limit pledge or switches parties. She gains 2% this month.

OK, done at last. But expect a version with color-coded maps soon.