Tag: AK-Sen

• AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally fessed up to what we told you about last week (concerning farmland he owned in Alaska): he’s a hypocrite on the farm subsidy issue, having gladly accepted them while railing against them. This time, it’s about a different parcel of farmland in Kansas that he owned before moving to Alaska, receiving $7K in GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS FOR LAZY UNPRODUCTIVE PEOPLE WHO’VE MADE BAD LIFESTYLE CHOICES!!!1! between the years 1990 and 1997. And check out the excuse he offers: “This was back in the ’90s, the situation the country was in was far different than now.” (Uh huh… when some guy named Bill Clinton was running a surplus.)

• DE-Sen: Whoops. Prior to getting their establishment asses handed them to them on the end of a mob-wielded pitchfork, the Delaware state GOP filed a FEC complaint against Christine O’Donnell for illegal campaign coordination with and excessive contributions from the Tea Party Express. Now that they’re saddled with her as the nominee, the FEC is telling them no-backsies, and that they can’t withdraw the complaint… the complaint against their own nominee.

• NC-Sen: And now it’s Richard Burr’s turn in the hypocrisy dunk tank. An announcement of 240 new jobs and a $130 million expansion at Cree Inc. in Durham is drawing four major Democrats and Richard Burr to celebrate. Burr, unlike the Democrats, though, did not support the stimulus package that, y’know, was behind that expansion.

• NV-Sen: John Ensign may not even survive till the general election in 2012, if Jon Ralston’s tweet is to be believed. John Chachas, the little-known self-funder who barely made a ripple in the overcrowded 2010 GOP Senate field but who seems likely to do better in a one-on-one, is saying he may run against Ensign in two years.

• GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspaper Partnership:

Roy Barnes (D): 41

Nathan Deal (R): 45

Michael Thurmond (D): 33

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±4%)

While this isn’t as nice as the InsiderAdvantage poll showing the race tied in the wake of disclosures about Nathan Deal’s financial disarray, Mason-Dixon does show a close race. This appears to be their first poll of the Barnes/Deal matchup, so there’s no sense of whether things have tightened.

• RI-Gov: Faced with the choice between a labor-friendly indie candidate and a Democrat whom they endorsed for state Treasurer four years ago, the AFL-CIO finally decided to punt, and endorse neither Lincoln Chafee nor Frank Caprio, remaining neutral. Recall that Chafee got SEIU and nurses’ union backing yesterday.

• AZ-05: There’s a new internal out in the rematch in Arizona’s 5th that founds its way across someone’s desk at the Hill. It’s from Democratic pollster Harstad Strategic Research and is apparently on behalf of the Harry Mitchell campaign, giving Mitchell a narrow lead over David Schweikert, 45-44 with 6 to the Libertarian candidate. That’s kind of pushing the limits on when it’s a good idea to release an internal, but with Schweikert having claimed an 8-point lead in his own internal and the DCCC’s ambiguous pull-out announcement about this district triggering some alarms, Mitchell seemed to need to show he’s still right in the thick of things.

UPDATE: The Mitchell campaign writes in to clarify that this isn’t their internal poll (which the Hill had originally reported, then apparently deleted), but rather is on behalf of Project New West. Mitchell’s up 51-29 among independents, which helps him prevail even in a sample that’s slightly GOP-skewed (46% GOP, 30% Dem) You can see the polling memo here.

• LA-02: Anzalone-Liszt for Cedric Richmond (9/12-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Cedric Richmond (D): 45

Joe Cao (R): 35

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Here’s the antidote to that bizarre Joe Cao internal from a few months back, that gave him a 25-point lead over Cedric Richmond. Even this Richmond internal, which has him up by 10, indicates that this isn’t going to be a total cakewalk for the Dems, though; with only 35%, Cao is still way overperforming the GOP baseline in this district that went for Barack Obama with 75% of the vote in 2008.  

• MN-01: Tim Walz picked up an endorsement from an unexpected corner yesterday. He got the backing of former Republican Senator David Durenberger, who support Walz’s stance on “uniting people” but also his support for health care reform. (Durenberger is also supporting IP candidate Tom Horner in the governor’s race.)

• PA-15: Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call (9-11/16, likely voters, 4/19-27 in parentheses):

John Callahan (D): 38 (33)

Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (45)

Jake Towne (I): 3 (?)

Undecided: 10 (22)

(MoE: ±5%)

John Callahan’s one of the best Dem challengers to a GOP incumbent this cycle, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him to make up that last 12 points against Charlie Dent.

• NRSC: Here’s an interesting Roll Call dispatch from the front lines in the war between the NRSC and the Army of One known as Jim DeMint. DeMint is apparently dissatisfied with current NRSC allocations, and is moving money from his own personal stash to bolster Sharron Angle in Nevada ($156K) and Ken Buck in Colorado ($250K). The NRSC has reserved $3.2 million for Buck in TV time, more than any other candidate, so his concerns about Colorado may be misplaced.

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: The DSCC hits Mark Kirk for voting against unemployment extensions and minimum wage raises

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt disappears down the meta rabbithole, with an attack ad about Robin Carnahan’s attack ads

• NV-Sen: Can we just have Harry Reid handle the advertising for all our candidates? He turns up the heat even higher on Sharron Angle, saying she wants to privatize the VA and “end our promise to our veterans”

• IA-Gov: Two separate ads for Chet Culver, one featuring endorsements from his immediate family members, the other making the case that “hey, Iowa’s not that bad off compared to all those other states”

• NM-Gov: Susana Martinez’s ad is a positive bio spot recounting her early prosecuting days

• SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen’s TV ad features a litany of reasons to be suspicious of Nikki Haley, recited by various average folks

• OH-16: The DCCC’s newest spot is a tax-time two-fer, hitting Jim Renacci on supporting the 23% “fair tax” and on his own pile of back taxes owed

• OR-05: Kurt Schrader’s newest is a testimonial from a thankful veteran

• TN-08: Roy Herron’s newest ad hits Stephen Fincher mostly on his various campaign finance discrepancies of misfilings and mysterious loans

• WI-07: Julie Lassa’s newest ad features criticism from a Sean Duffy underling from the DA’s office in Ashland County, focusing on his neglect of that stepping-stone job

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 25%, Joe Miller (R) 42%, Lisa Murkowski (W-I-inc) 27%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 49%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 39%

• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 23%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%

• Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 39%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 46%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 41%, John Kasich (R) 47%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 36%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 40%, Pat Toomey (R) 48%

AK-Sen: Word is out about two forthcoming ad buys in Alaska: Lisa Murkowski is going up on radio and TV (NWOTSOTB), while Scott McAdams just threw down what Smart Media Group is calling “a partial buy of $48K in broadcast.”

Meanwhile, I don’t really give a fuck what John Kyl thinks, but it’s nice to see that he’s sweating the possibility that a Murkowski write-in campaign makes it less likely the GOP will hold on to the seat. (As an aside, don’t you wish Dems had handled Lieberman like this? Indeed, Republicans are supposedly weighing whether to strip Murkowski of her committee assignments.) But maybe Kyl is just being the idiot he always is, because a Republican source tells The Hill that internal polling “indicates Murkowski’s write-in bid takes an equal amount of support from Democrat Scott McAdams as it does Miller.” For once in my life, I hope Kyl is right!

MO-Sen: Global Strategy Group for the Missouri Democratic Party (9-14/18, likely voters, no trendlines, includes leaners):

Robin Carnahan (D): 39

Roy Blunt (R): 43

Jerry Beck (C): 3

Jonathan Dine (L): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

AK-Gov: NEA-Alaska, the biggest union in the state, just endorsed Dem Ethan Berkowitz for governor. And Bill Walker, the Republican primary loser who is still considering a write-in bid, is holding out the possibility of a Berko endorsement as well.

FL-22: The ghost of Casey Stengel is smacking his forehead and asking, once more, “Can’t anybody here play this game?” The Florida Democratic Party sent out a mailer hitting Allen West over his tax liens… but the managed to include his full Social Security number. Oy.

IN-09: Reid Wilson claims there’s a dispute between the IE arm of the DCCC and main HQ… but there isn’t a single quote in the piece, not even an anonymous one. Though the IE wing has cancelled ad buys on behalf of Baron Hill in mid-October, supposedly the “coordinated” arm “believes Hill is still deserving of spending.” I have no reason to doubt Reid, but if his source at main D-Trip wanted to get this message out there, this is a damn oblique way to do it – but maybe he or she was scared of accusations of “coordination via the media.” Anyhow, it all just shows how dumb these rules against coordination are.

KY-06: The Mellman Group for Ben Chandler (9/13-14, likely voters):

Ben Chandler (D-inc): 53

Andy Barr (R): 33

(MoE: ±4.9%)

This is the first poll that Chandler has released, though his campaign teased earlier in the summer that their internal from June gave Chandler a “strong double-digit lead”.

MI-03: This open-seat race hasn’t gotten a lot of attention, but Dem Patrick Miles just rolled out an impressive list of Republican endorsements, including a couple of former county GOP chairs… and two daughters of retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers! Based on the comments in the article, I get the distinct feeling that Republican Justin Amash must be a seriously unlikable dude for this many of his fellow party members to want to diss him so thoroughly. By the way, Amash’s fundraising has been unimpressive (just $380K), and he has less than half the cash of Miles ($227K to $112K).

NE-02: Biden Alert! The VPOTUS is coming to Omaha on Sept. 30th to headline a fundraiser for Dem Tom White. I’m gonna guess that Republican Rep. Lee Terry might have a harder time than most in tying White to the Obama administration, though, given that Terry put out flyers in the 2008 cycle touting his support from mythical “Obama-Terry voters.”

NY-18: Wow, the NY GOP sure is good at producing pariah leper candidates these days, huh? Republican Jim Russell, running against Nita Lowey, penned an essay for the racist Occidental Quarterly in support of ethnic and religious segregation a few years ago – but that description is way too anodyne to do his piece justice. For instance, he approvingly quotes T.S. Eliot, who said, among other things: “What is still more important is unity of religious background; and reasons of race and culture combine to make any large number of free-thinking Jews undesirable.” Click through to Maggie Haberman’s piece for a much larger selection of choice quotes. Also note that the Westchester County GOP endorsed Russell in July, after another candidate dropped out.

TX-23: What a fucking idiot: Republican Quico Canseco blanketed San Antonio with door-hangers that claimed Rep. Ciro Rodriguez voted in favor of TARP. But, uh, he didn’t. In fact, he voted against the bailout twice. Seriously, how fucking hard is it to Google this shit?

WA-03: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Denny Heck (9/7-9, likely voters, no trendlines):

Denny Heck (D): 44

Jaime Herrera (R): 47

(MoE: ±4.4%)

We say “no trendlines” because we don’t know the precise top lines from GQR’s previously poll for Heck (conducted in June), though we do know from Roll Call’s write up that Heck trailed Herrera by 7 points in that one.

SSP TV:

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink’s latest ad uses the words of local newspaper editorials against scumbag Republican Rick Scott’s campaign platform, while also touting her economic ideas. And, hey, some WOTSOTB: She’s spending $800K on the ad.
• AZ-05: One Harry Mitchell spot touts his fight against Congressional pay raises; another touts his support from three apparently reg’lar Republicans (but oddly leaves off the “I approve” message – is this not a broadcast ad?)
• AZ-08: Gabby Giffords hangs Jesse Kelly on the “flat tax” with his own words in support of a 23% national sales tax. I personally love going after Republicans on this issue because the dumb fucks who support this have to sputter that no, but, really, actually, what we mean is… ah, who gives a fuck what they mean.
• KS-03: An anodyne spot from Republican Kevin Yoder (people shouting “We’re Yoder Voters!”); and another pretty blah ad about small businesses (featuring a black-and-white photo of Pelosi without even mentioning her by name – odd)
• KY-03: John Yarmuth updates an effective ad from his 2008 campaign, featuring a disabled Navy veteran narrating about Yarmuth’s support for vets (ad is “expected to run for a week on all the networks in Louisville”)
• MD-01: Frank Kratovil also has a good ad hitting Andy Harris on the national 23% sales tax (see AZ-08 above)
• NY-20: A pretty clever ad from Scott Murphy, responding to attacks on his vote in favor of healthcare reform by pointing out some of the most popular parts of the bill, like closing the Medicare “donut hole”

AK-Sen: This is pretty lulzy – Lisa Murkowski is busy reassuring people that she’ll still have the support of K Street as she pursued her write-in bid. In a year like this, that’s the message you want to run on? It’s even sadder that she probably feels like she has to reassure her corporate masters that she’s still there for them.

DE-Sen: Merry meet and blessed be! Bill Maher unearths a 1999 clip of Christine O’Donnell (a frequent guest on his show), and promises there’s more where this came from:

I dabbled into witchcraft – I never joined a coven. But I did, I did. … I dabbled into witchcraft. I hung around people who were doing these things. I’m not making this stuff up. I know what they told me they do. […]

One of my first dates with a witch was on a satanic altar, and I didn’t know it. I mean, there’s little blood there and stuff like that. … We went to a movie and then had a midnight picnic on a satanic altar.

Yesterday, though, O’Donnell decided to skip visits to some other satanic altars, namely Sunday talk shows “FOX News Sunday” and CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Dissing Bob Schieffer I can understand – I mean, that’s straight out of the Sarah Palin/Sharron Angle hide-in-a-deep-underground-bunker playbook. But the friendly confines of FOX? How will she get a job there when she moves on to her next gig in the grifter’s circuit?

AK-Gov: Last week we learned the disappointing news that Republican Bill Walker, who scored 30% running against Gov. Sean Parnell, would not make a third-party gubernatorial bid. But now he’s saying that Lisa Murkowski has inspired him and he might yet wage a write-in campaign. Godspeed, good buddy!

IL-Gov: GOP-affiliated robopollster We Ask America has their first survey of the race, finding Republican Bob Brady at 42, Gov. Pat Quinn at 32, and everybody’s favorite, Scott Lee Cohen, at 5.

NY-Gov: Speaking of SLC, it looks like the NY GOP has a reverse Scott Lee Cohen situation on their hands. Basically, the less-crazy guy – Greg Edwards, who was supposed to be Rick Lazio’s running-mate, won the Republican Lt. Gov. nomination. Revolting meat-bucket (and, dear lord, gubernatorial nominee) Carl Paladino preferred many-time loser Tom Ognibene instead. There’s chatter now that Edwards may stay on the ballot but not really run, or will try to drop out (a somewhat tricky proposition in NY). If he does successfully bail, the state GOP would appoint a replacement (presumably Ognibene, if Paladino’s in charge). Anyhow, I suggest you click through for Celeste Katz’s full story, because there are so many layers and permutations to this story that I simply can’t summarize them all.

Ognibene may be the only guy actually not running away from Paladino as fast as he can. GOP comptroller nominee Harry Wilson has refused to endorse Paladino, and attorney general nominee Dan Donovan is basically saying the same thing. Haven’t seen any word yet as to whether senate nominee Joe DioGuardi feels the same way.

CO-03: Republican Scott Tipton is now saying he’s no longer a Seventeenther (you know, a maniac who wants to get rid of the direct election of United States senators), despite having answered a teabagger survey on that very question in the affirmative. He’s also claiming that he doesn’t want to abolish the Department of Education. Live by the yes-no question, die by the yes-no question.

MO-04: Another day, another Dem gets endorsed by the NRA. This time, it’s veteran Ike Skelton.

NY-15: Adam Clayton Powell, who took just 25% against Charlie Rangel’s 53% in a fractured field, is saying he already has plans to run again. Of course, this district’s lines (and even number) could change substantially before 2012.

NY-19: Big Dog Alert (retroactive)! Bill Clinton did a fundraiser for Rep. John Hall in Cortland Manor this past weekend. Of course, Clinton lives (“lives”) just outside the 19th CD in Chappaqua (in the 18th).

PA-10: In a previous digest, we related the story of then-U.S. Attorney Tom Marino providing a personal reference for “businessman” Louis DeNaples’s bid to get a casino license – while DeNaples (euphemistically described as “having possible ties to organized crime”) was under investigation by Marino’s office. These dealings led to Marino’s resignation in 2007 (and, surprise surprise, he soon wound up with a nice sinecure as DeNaples’s in-house counsel). Marino claimed in April that the Department of Justice gave him permission to serve as a reference to DeNaples (then why did you resign?), but has never provided any proof. Now the AP is saying that a DoJ source tells them that there is no evidence that Marino ever received such authorization. The heat is on.

DCCC: The D-Trip has added Annie Kuster (NH-02) and Bill Keating (MA-10) to Red to Blue.

DC-Mayor: Deposed incumbent Dem Adrian Fenty says he won’t try to run in the general as a Republican. Given that there are probably 19 registered Republicans in the entire district, I’m not sure how this was even an idea in the first place.

Polltopia: Go tell Public Policy Polling where to poll next.

SSP-TV:

• DE-Sen: DSCC ad says Christine O’Donnell will “fit right in in Washington,” thanks to her personal fiscal irresponsibility. Uh, do they remember who is in charge in DC?
• IL-Sen: CQ reports that the DSCC is set to go up here this week for a quarter mil, but no links to actual ads yet
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s new ad compares his navy service to Pat Toomey’s service on behalf of Wall Street
  

• FL-Gov: Two Alex Sink ads, one dinging Rick Scott for harping on endlessly about Obama, the other talking about schools
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo’s second spot, featuring an endorsement from a former state Republican Party chair
• MA-10: Fresh off his primary win last week, Dem Bill Keating is up with an ad on a good issue: his pledge not to raise the retirement age for Social Security (contrasting with his Republican opponent’s desire to do so)
• MI-07: SEIU spot hitting GOPer Tim Walberg for failing to support the auto industry and wanting to eliminate Social Security (CQ says buy is for $250K)
• NC-11: Two spots from Heath Shuler: the first a touching ad about his efforts to build new veterans’ health clinics, the second hammering Jeff Miller for supporting the bad kind of SSP
• NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter’s first ad, a mostly positive spot emphasizing that “whether it’s popular or not,” she “always fights for what she believes in,”
• NY-19: George Pataki’s PAC Revere America has a spot hitting John Hall with scaaaaary music over his vote in support of healthcare reform
• NY-23: Bill Owens’ first ad, which redistricting geeks will appreciate, emphasizing just how big the district is physically
• NY-24: Richard Hanna personally narrates a negative ad attacking Mike Arcuri for his support of the stimulus and bailouts – I think it’s pretty effective
• OH-13: GOPer Tom Ganley’s spot touts his work with the FBI (as a civilian) to bring down some mob extortionists
• NRCC: CQ rounds up ads targeting Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Bryan Lentz (PA-07), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) and John Adler (NJ-03) (click here for Adler ad)

Independent Expenditures:

• Americans for Job Security: The right-wing front group is launching some huge buys: $443K against Mike Arcuri (NY-24), $526K against Larry Kissell (NC-08), and $712K against Heath Shuler (NC-11)
• NY-19: Curses! Those meddling ophthalmologists! The (non-rogue) American Academy Of Ophthalmology, Inc. Political Committee (aka OPHTHPAC) is throwing down $143K on behalf of one of their own, Republican eye doctor Nan Hayworth (NY-19)

It’s official – Lisa Murkowski just threw her hat into the Alaska Senate race, turning this contest into a three-way race between an insane teabagger, a party-line Republican, and a mainstream Alaska Democrat.

I don’t buy into the reasoning that says that a Murkowski bid hands the election to Joe Miller – three-way races are unpredictable things to handicap at the outset. Many will cite the PPP poll showing that Democrat Scott McAdams trailed in third place with Murkowski running as a Libertarian… but a write-in campaign is different kettle of fish, requiring a greater voter buy-in than a traditional campaign would demand. Note that the strongest write-in campaign for federal office in Alaska history came from sitting Democratic Senator Ernest Gruening in 1968, who won 17% against fellow Democrat Mike Gravel. (Imagine that: two Dems splitting the vote in Alaska and still yielding a win for Team Blue. Funny what oil wealth can do to a once-bluish frontier state.)

Much depends on the type of campaign that Murkowski chooses to run. Will she spend most of her time educating voters on how to spell her name (and how to shade an oval)? (Though note that precise spelling is not a deal-breaker according to the AK DoE.) Will she spend her war chest launching broadsides against her right – and her left? In her remarks tonight, Murkowski’s anger against Joe Miller was clearly palpable, deriding him for his “extremist views” and “lies”, and making a veiled reference to Miller’s Twitter adventures that we kindly exposed. In a way, she’s helping to do some of Scott McAdams’ work for him!

She ultimately declared that the “gloves were off” after a primary campaign that was criticized for being too restrained and lackadaisical, but also pointed her finger at “outside extremists” for her primary loss. As for those outsiders, you can bet that we haven’t heard the last from the Tea Party Express (as well as the Johnny-come-latelies at the Club for Growth).

I still think that Scott McAdams has a shot at this race, though much will depend on his fundraising (and thank you to all who showed your support on that score). Let the games begin.

• AK-Sen: All signs are now pointing toward a Lisa Murkowski write-in bid, although nothing is official yet. But she’s inviting supporters to a “campaign kickoff” tonight, which are certainly not the words of someone ready to go gently into that good night. She seems undeterred by the fact that the Tea Party Express already fired a shot across her bow yesterday, warning her to be a “good team member” and saying they’ll resume spending money against her if she does. Meanwhile, hilarious and slightly damning news on the Joe Miller front, as it turns out that he, like so many other teabagger candidates this year, was a recipient of $14K in farm subsidies over the decade for a thousand acres of land he owned near Fairbanks. Y’know, subsidies from the federal government that he hates so much, in order to pay for the otherwise-unprofitable way of life that he chose. (Can you even grow anything near Fairbanks? That may be the most surprising part of the story to me.)

• DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell and Chris Coons faced off in their first appearance together, and O’Donnell seemed to be doing a lot of rhetorical distancing from the O’Donnell that had existed up until Tuesday. Meanwhile, O’Donnell is now facing the wrath of multiple ex-aides, all willing to dish to Politico on the trainwrecks that were previous O’Donnell campaigns.

• IL-Sen: Illinois-based Republican-linked robo-pollster We Ask America is out with their second poll of the IL-Sen race, giving Mark Kirk a 39-36 link over Alexi Giannoulias. That’s better than their previous offering, which gave Kirk a 6-point edge.

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold’s “Cheddarbomb” sounds like it was very successful, bringing in at least $435K in one day’s worth of contributions.

• AR-Gov: With yesterday’s PPP NH-Gov poll, I think it’s now safe to say that Mike Beebe is officially the nation’s safest Democratic incumbent governor this year. The gubernatorial half of yesterday’s Mason-Dixon poll on behalf of Arkansas News Service is out, and Beebe leads Republican challenger Jim Keet by 21 points, 54-33. (One other very important detail: currently, Beebe has $2.5 million CoH, while Keet has $9,000.) Given the state’s turn to the red this cycle, Dems should be glad that they aren’t defending an open seat here, though, as in the open Lt. Governor race, Dem state Sen. Shane Broadway is barely leading Some Dude (Mark Darr) 36-34.

• CA-Gov: Well, my cynicism has been eased a bit, I guess: Bill Clinton will be giving Jerry Brown the full endorsee treatment and not just throwing him a bone, including stumping on his behalf (and Gavin Newsom’s behalf too) in mid-October.

• HI-Gov: It feels like the primary season wrapped up on Tuesday, but there’s one last race that needs to be previewed: the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Hawaii, which will be settled in their regularly scheduled election tomorrow. The race pits ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie against former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann in what’s literally a clash of titans (the 72-year-old Abercrombie can bench-press 272 lbs., while former basketball player Hannemann is 6’7″). Hannemann seems to running a bit to Abercrombie’s right, at least on social issues, and Abercrombie seems to have the late momentum based on polling and fundraising. The linked WaPo article points to some intriguing behind the scenes drama (with Dan Inouye behind Hannemann and Ed Case behind Abercrombie) and the racial resentments stirred by the race (Abercrombie is white, Hannemann is Samoan).

• NM-Gov: The DGA is keeping the pressure on in New Mexico, hitting Susana Martinez again on staff bonuses and sweetheart deals. Bill Clinton, who’s increasingly turning out to be the #1 Dem surrogate on the stump this cycle, is also now scheduled to stump on Diane Denish’s behalf on Oct. 14 in the heavily-Latino northern town of Espanola.

• NY-Gov: This may be the dumbest idea in the history of political advertising: send intentionally bad-smelling mailers to people’s houses. Carl Paladino is trying to make the point that “something smells” in Albany, but there has to be a smarter way to do it than invading people’s houses to intentionally physically sicken them.

• CO-04: Hot on the heels of the NRA backing John Salazar next door in the 3rd, now they’re also endorsing Democratic freshman Betsy Markey in the similarly rural, reddish 4th.

• MI-09: There’s a poll out in the 9th from a previously unknown (to us) pollster (The Rossman Group/Team Telcom) giving Rocky Raczkowski a small lead over Dem freshman Gary Peters, 45-41. Thanks to Paleo in the comments, we know that the Rossman Group is a PR firm associated with state-level GOP operative Audrey Perricone, so salt this one as you see fit.

• NY-23: All that hoping paid off, and now the cat is now officially in the dryer! A replay of the special election is on, as Doug Hoffman, who narrowly lost the GOP primary to Matt Doheny, is saying that he is going to stick with the Conservative Line no matter what. (More accurately, Conservative party chair Michael Long, who’s basically been Hoffman’s puppetmaster for the last year, is the one saying that.)

• TN-04: Sure, we’ve all been accused of harassment, intimidation, and physical abuse, but… oh, wait. We haven’t? Well, Republican candidate Scott DesJarlais was accused by his ex-wife of all of that, in divorce filings from a decade ago. It’s unclear how much this’ll affect the direction of the race, though; buried deep in the Roll Call article is word of a late August internal poll on Lincoln Davis’s behalf (released in response to a DesJarlais internal showing him within 4 of Davis), giving Davis a 51-40 lead. (No word on who Davis’s pollster is.)

• Mayors: Primary-defeated Dem incumbent Adrian Fenty somehow won the Republican mayoral primary. There wasn’t a candidate, and Fenty got more write-in votes than anyone else. It didn’t sound like Fenty was interested in turning coats and running again under the GOP aegis, and now the DC BoE is arguing that he couldn’t anyway, as he would have had to be a member of the Republican Party as of the election date.

• IE Tracker:

• MO-Sen: $124K from Commonsense Ten against Roy Blunt

• WV-01: $439K from American Future Fund against Mike Oliverio

• NC-02, VA-09: $341K from Americans for Job Security against Bob Etheridge, $431K against Rick Boucher

• AL-02: $414K from AFF against Bobby Bright

• SC-05: $191K from AFF against John Spratt

• NJ-03: $170K from AFF against John Adler

• MI-01: $304K from AFF against Gary McDowell

• GA-08: $346K from AFF against Jim Marshall

• MI-07: $501K from AFF against Mark Schauer

• SSP TV:

• PA-Sen: The DSCC rides to Joe Sestak’s rescue with an ad tying Pat Toomey to George Bush’s deficit-swelling tax policies, while the Club for Growth tries to walk a delicate balance, thanking Sestak for his military service before laying into his voting record

• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard’s out with not one but three different ads using footage of Jan Brewer’s tongue-tied performance at last month’s debate, one of which focuses on her unproven allegations about headless bodies in the desert (and ending with the tagline “Is this the best Arizona can do?”)

• KS-Gov: The Kansas Moderate Majority PAC runs an anti-Sam Brownback ad hitting him on the flat tax, while Brownback is out with two ads of his own

• MI-Gov: Virg Bernero’s on the air, hitting Rick Sndyer for outsourcing jobs while he was head of Gateway

• ID-01: Walt Minnick actually hits Raul Labrador for being too soft on illegal immigrants, saying it’s “good business” for Labrador’s immigration law practice

• MI-01: 2 ads from Gary McDowell, one about cleaning up the Great Lakes and one hitting Dan Benishek on Social Security privatization

• TX-17: Chet Edwards is doing the distancing-from-DC-Democrats game in his newest ad

• WA-08: Suzan DelBene’s first TV ad starts negative against Dave Reichert, hitting him on his financial reform vote and on earmarks, of all things

• Rasmussen:

• IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%, Dan Coats (R) 50%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 45%, Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Tim Cahill (I) 5%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 44%, Ron Johnson (R) 51%

Awhile back, the old mainframe down at SSP Labs told us that not only that absentees and provisionals wouldn’t be enough to help Lisa Murkowski overcome her then 1,668-vote deficit, but that they’d be likely to actually hurt her and drop her further behind, to the tune of 341 votes.

Three weeks after election day, we finally have some certainty, as the results are now certified. Drumroll, please:

With all the final results, Miller’s margin on Murkowski increased from 1,668 to 2,006. An increase of … 338!

Now, of course, things aren’t that simple, and frankly, we’re not that good. In my input, we’d assumed 7,500 absentees and 5,000 provisionals, when in actuality, there were 17,364 additional ballots. I don’t have those broken down between provisionals and absentees, but applying that figure post hoc, that would have yielded an estimate of an increase in Miller’s margin of between 410 and 516.

But indeed, absentees and provisionals were not friendlier to Murkowski – she lost by 1.81% among election day ballots and early votes; she lost by 1.95% among provisionals and absentees. (We’d estimated she’d lose by 2.36% among provisionals and 2.97% among absentees).

No models are perfect, and they remain exactly that – models, dependent on anorexia! er…proper inputs and proper assumptions; we’ll continue to put them forth to the best of our ability. Moving forward, even as the news may get even worse (or even better, if you’re one of our many newfound GOP-leaning readers), we hope to bring the same solid news and analysis (that we assume) you come here to enjoy!

P.S. I’m no salesman, but since I’ve already gotten wet in the self-congratulatory rain, I might as well go swimming: we’re a mere 5 followers short of 3,000 on Twitter. Wink wink. Nudge nudge.

P.P.S. We have a Facebook page too.

• AK-Sen: Two positive developments in the Alaska Senate race, as Scott McAdams seeks to introduce himself in this suddenly-competitive race. He was the recipient of a Mark Begich-headlined fundraiser yesterday in Washington DC, and he’s also out with a radio ad stressing his Alaskan roots and that he’ll keep fighting for “schools, hospitals, roads, and other nuts and bolts” – both key ways to differentiate himself from Joe Miller. As for Lisa Murkowski’s plans, she’s saying that she’ll make her intentions known by Friday whether she wants to make a write-in bid (but her plans to return to DC might be a “no” tea leaf).

• DE-Sen: After running far, far away from Christine O’Donnell last night, the NRSC has done an about-face today, giving her the maximum $42K (with Mitch McConnell chipping in his own $5K). I’d be surprised if they give any more than that; this seems like an attempt to placate the base before they go ballistic. Mitt Romney is also backing O’Donnell and giving his own $5K, apparently more worried about getting past the base in the 2012 GOP primary than support for O’Donnell might look for him in the 2012 general. Meanwhile, for those hoping for outright support for Chris Coons from Mike Castle, the Castle camp has said there won’t be an endorsement. (Assistance can take a variety of other forms, though, that aren’t as likely to be apparent.) Finally, if you’re wondering about how Christine O’Donnell sees herself within the Middle Earth context, now you can find out.

• NH-Sen: Although New Hampshire recount law would allow Ovide Lamontagne to seek a recount (since he finished within 1.5% of the total votes cast), he just opted against such an action, conceding the race to Kelly Ayotte. He had until the end of the day to request it.

• AK-Gov: It’s the last day to get his name on the ballot in Alaska in any capacity (and not really at issue, since the AIP and Libertarians weren’t open to subbing him as their candidate). That leaves 2nd place GOP gubernatorial finisher Bill Walker with a write-in bid as his only option, too, and he sounds like such a bid is “unlikely.”

• CA-Gov: I don’t know if all is truly well now between Bill Clinton and Jerry Brown, or Clinton is just feeling that he’s adequately established himself as the alpha dog in the wake of Brown’s capitulation following their ill-advised sparring, but Clinton gave his endorsement to Brown. It remains to be seen what exactly Clinton does on Brown’s behalf, though.

• CO-Gov: Tom Tancredo is able to stay on the ballot, said a U.S. District Court judge yesterday. He’d been the subject of a challenge from local GOPers, but the judge ruled that it wasn’t relevant that Tancredo had been a member of the Republican Party up until launching his Constitution Party bid.

• FL-Gov: The DGA just plowed $1 million into the Florida governor’s race, showing that they indeed think this (thanks to Rick Scott’s presence) is one of their best pickup opportunities but also that the route to doing so will be through a whole lot of money.

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal is fighting back against reports that he’s in such financial disarray right now that he might need to sell his house to avoid default on a large business loan. The $2.3 million loan is due on Feb. 1, which exceeds the Deal family’s net worth. (This was an investment in a business started by his daughter which failed completely; it’s entirely separate from the family auto salvage business that’s at the heart of the Ethics complaint that chased him out of the House.)

• MD-Gov: Looks like we won’t have any lingering bad feelings here, unlike a lot of other establishment/Tea Party GOP primaries: Brian Murphy, who lost badly to Bob Ehrlich, has offered his endorsement to Ehrlich “if he’s willing to accept it.”

• DSCC: I guess Charles Schumer looked at yesterday’s election results and decided he didn’t have much to worry about in November from Jay Townsend. He just transferred $1 million to the DSCC from his own cash yesterday, on top of a previous $1 million in August. That leaves him with “only” about $22 million CoH… about the same amount of cash on hand that the DSCC has!

• DCCC, NRCC: The DCCC and NRCC are out with slew of independent expenditures advertisements. (Expect to see that phrase in every digest for the next month and a half.) The DCCC rolled out three new IEs in HI-01, MI-01, and AL-02. The NRCC’s buy is in 10 districts: most significantly in IN-02 (for $135K), but also AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, MS-01, TX-17, VA-05, WI-07 (for $79K), and TN-08 (for $105K). If you want more details on the NRCC’s bid, you can check out the actual FEC filing.

• Self-funders: The Wall Street Journal has a helpful rundown on how self-funders are faring this year. As with, well, pretty much every other year, they’re faring quite poorly. Of the 10 biggest self-funders in this cycle’s Senate races, only three actually are still running (Linda McMahon, Carly Fiorina, and Ron Johnson); the other seven (Jeff Greene, Steve Pagliuca, Bill Binnie, David Malpass, Sue Lowden, Jim Bender, and Terrence Wall) all fell by the wayside, often in spectacular fashion. Same story in the House, where only three of the top 10 self-funders (Tom Ganley, Randy Altschuler, and Matt Doheny) are still functional.

• Redistricting: Any SSP readers out in Arizona? Here’s your chance to get out from behind Dave’s App and actually get your hands on the real thing! The state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission is seeking applications from the public for appointment to the 5-member commission.

• SSP TV:

• 60+ Assoc.: The health care astroturfers are running anti-Dem ads in WI-03, WI-08, NY-01, NY-20, and PA-10

• AFF: AFF launches a total $2.3 million buy in seven Dem districts: AL-02, GA-08, MI-01, MI-07, NJ-03, SC-05, and WV-01

• American Crossroads: Rove, Inc., is spending $330K on a MO-Sen ad and $550K on a CO-Sen ad

• FL-Sen: The US Chamber of Commerce hits Charlie Crist, pointing to his many flip-flops

• NV-Sen: The Sharron Angle camp has another anti-Harry Reid ad, calling him “the best friend an illegal immigrant ever had”

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand’s out with her first ad, more or less explicitly introducing herself despite her two years or service

• NC-02: Bob Etheridge isn’t leaving anything to chance this year, rolling out an ad that’s mostly a pleasant bio spot

• OH-18: I mentioned Zack Space’s anti-NAFTA ad yesterday, but here’s an actual link to the ad

• PA-06: Jim Gerlach’s first ad has him stepping away from the Republican label, saying he’s “an independent voice for taxpayers”

• PA-10: Chris Carney’s ad goes there, hitting Tom Marino on his ties to sketchy casino entrepreneur Louis DeNaples

• SC-05: Mick Mulvaney’s new ad hits John Spratt for having gone native in Washington

• WI-07: Is the DCCC taking a page from the Fred Davis “Celebrity” ad that seemed to bizarrely work against Obama? Their new ad against Sean Duffy is rife with clips from his days on The Real World

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 23%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 50%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 41%, Pat Toomey (R) 49%

• VT-Gov: Peter Shumlin (D) 49%, Brian Dubie (R) 46%

• VT-Sen: Patrick Leahy (D) 62%, Len Britton (R) 32%

I can’t believe my eyes – you guys blew through our goal of $2400 (the equivalent of one maximum federal donation) for Democrat Scott McAdams today. We’d like to extend a heartfelt thank you to everyone who chipped in. (And if you haven’t yet, there’s still plenty of time to chip in for this very worthy battle.) We truly appreciate it!

AK-Sen: Man, we are seriously close! Just $195 away from our goal of raising $2,400 for Dem Scott McAdams in the topsy-turvy Alaska senate race. We have 64 contributors right now – I’d love to see us get to 70 before all is said and done. And if we hit our target now, you get to stop seeing nags from me!

DE-Sen: One final (?) independent expenditure report from the Tea Party Express, good for another $20K of media on Christine O’Donnell’s behalf. Damn this one ought to be exciting tonight.

CA-Gov: Gah, this is just unspinnably bad. Meg Whitman releases an ad featuring footage of Bill Clinton attacking Jerry Brown in the 1992 presidential primary, so what does Brown do? He calls Clinton a liar – and manages to make a crack about Monica freakin’ Lewinsky. (Talk about stuck in a time warp.) After a day, Brown finally apologized.

FL-Gov: Alex Sink secured endorsed from two top law enforcement groups: the Fraternal Order of Police and the Police Benevolent Association. Her campaign says it’s the first time in two decades both orgs have endorsed a Dem (the FOP hasn’t does so in 16 years).

KS-Gov: Live by the bailout, die by the bailout. Dem Tom Holland smacked Republican Sam Brownback during a recent debate for supporting a $200 billion bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – leaving Brownback to sputter that he voted against the bailout. Well, yeah, he voted against the infamous TARP. But Holland had him dead-to-rights on a separate vote, from July of 2008, which did in fact provide money to prop up the two government-sponsored mortgage enterprises.

ME-Gov: Watch GOP nominee Paul LePage get seriously testy when reporters ask him about the fact that his wife received homestead tax exemptions for properties in both Maine and Florida in 2009. (More details here.)

FL-02: Hah! This is why it pays to keep good records! Republican Steve Southerland claimed on a radio show that he had never donated money to Allen Boyd – so Boyd’s campaign dug up a $100 check from 1997 (!) that Southerland had made out to Boyd. Nice work!

FL-08: Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire is out with her first TV ad of the cycle – notable, of course, because you don’t often see third-party candidates on the air (especially two months out from election day), and also because Dunmire has claimed she plans to put $250,000 of her own cash into the race.

IL-14: Idiot: GOPer Randy Hultgren made two separate contributions (totaling $2,000) to his federal campaign committee… from his state campaign committee. That, my friends, is not allowed (and which is why Hultgren is returning the money).

MI-01 (PDF): Republican Dan Benishek is touting an internal poll from TargetPoint Consulting, showing him with a 54-31 lead over Dem Gary McDowell. The polling memo is written in a pretty grossly sycophantic way, and my spidey sense is twigged enough for me to wonder if the ballot test was asked up top, or after some axe-grindy “issue” questions.

TN-04: Republican Scott DesJarlais is touting an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies, showing him four points behind Dem Rep. Lincoln Davis, 45-41. Note to TargetPoint Consulting: This is how a polling memorandum should look.

DCCC: Reid Wilson has a detailed report on the D-Trip shifting ad money around, but really, it doesn’t sound very good to me. In the waning days of WWII, my dad (in Poland) would tune in to Nazi-censored radio reports about the German troops “consolidating their positions” or “shifting to more strategically advantageous territory,” etc. It was all bullshit-speak code for “we’re retreating.” So you tell me if you think the DCCC is reducing its ad buys in Arizona because vulnerable Dems there “are running stronger than expected campaigns,” or if that, too, is bullshit. Similarly, should we be happy that the Dems are cancelling buys in North Dakota? Of course, those radio broadcasts my dad listened to were in fact good news….

Chicago-Mayor: I don’t know if we’ll be able to keep up with what I’m sure will be an avalanche of candidacy announcements, but former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun says she’s throwing her hat in the ring for the Chicago mayor’s race.

SSP-TV (written by James L.):

AL-02: The DCCC, as part of its huge $1.2 million ad reservation on behalf of Dem Bobby Bright, is hitting Martha Roby for being funded by “special interests working to privatize Medicare.” The ad is no longer publicly available on YouTube, though.

AZ-01: Rogue dentist Paul Gosar hits Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick over spending in irritatingly-produced ad

AZ-05: David Schweikert attacks Harry Mitchell on taxes, bailouts, the stimulus, and (ironically) negative ads

AZ-08: Republican Jesse Kelly dubiously claims that he’s running to protect Social Security (despite last year saying: “I would love to eliminate the program.”)

CT-04: Dan Debicella goes after sophomore Dem Rep. Jim Himes on the usual GOP complaints

FL-22: Allen West hides the crazy in his new ad, instead hitting Dem Rep. Ron Klein on the economy

HI-01: Democrat Colleen Hanabusa reintroduces herself to voters

IA-03: GOPer Brad Zaun calls fans of government shrinkage to join his campaign

IL-10: Bob Dold! points the finger at Cap and Trade and Healthcare Reform for economic malaise

NM-02: Steve Pearce says he’ll create jobs somehow

MI-07: Mark Schauer gets a bunch of angry seniors to berate ex-Rep. Tim Walberg over his scary views on Social Security. I like this one.

MO-03: Republican Ed Martin airs his first ad touting his efforts to save jobs

OH-01: Dem Steve Driehaus says that Steve Chabot won’t stand up to the Tea Party

SC-02: Joe Wilson, via a retired General, hits Democrat Rob Miller on receiving fundraising assistance from MoveOn.org. His second ad touts his job platform. On a related note, Joe Wilson has a startlingly robotic voice – he sounds like something a Macintosh LC 630’s speech synthesizer would be spitting out in 1994.

UT-02: Republican Morgan Philpot urges change in his first spot, and says that he’s gonna “wear this sucker out” in ad #2

WI-08: Roofing contractor Reid Ribble touts his record of teaching high school volleyball

NRCC ads: AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, KY-06, MS-01, TX-17, VA-05, WI-07

• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski is still mum on the prospects of a write-in run, but this looks like a potentially important tea leaf: she isn’t returning to the Beltway as the Senate goes back into session, but is remaining in Alaska attending to… something. Maybe it’s the grieving process, but it’s also shades of how Bob Bennett behaved while he weighed his post-primary recourse. And while this hadn’t looked likely in a week, Libertarian candidate David Haase confirmed he won’t step down to make way for Murkowski on the Libertarian line… so it’s write-in or bust for her.

• DE-Sen: With everyone abuzz over last night’s PPP poll giving Christine O’Donnell an improbable lead in the GOP primary, there’s word today of a Mike Castle internal giving him a 7-point lead (it’s buried deep in this Politico article, with no further details). PPP has some further thoughts on their poll, pointing out that in some ways Castle might be in worse shape than Lisa Murkowski going into the primary: his faves among GOP voters were 43/47, compared with Murk’s 48/46, and 55% thought he was too liberal, compared to 47% in Alaska. At any rate, the right wing is still engaged in full court press on O’Donnell’s behalf, though, with Sarah Palin cutting a radio ad for her. And if you’re like me, you were spending a lot of time last night trying to mentally ballpark how big an impact on an O’Donnell win would have on overall odds of retaining the Senate… well, don’t worry, because Nate Silver has already figured it out for you.

• ME-Sen: So after Murkowski and Castle, which GOPer is next on the chopping block? Looks like it’s Olympia Snowe, looking ahead to 2012. PPP finds that only 29% of Republicans are committed to backing Snowe in that year’s primary, with 63% saying they’ll back a more conservative alternative. Snowe loses a hypothetical primary matchup with 2006 gubernatorial nominee Chandler Woodcock, 38-33.

• NH-Sen: GOP pollster Magellan is out with a last-minute pre-primary look at the GOP Senate field, and they find the closest result yet for late-surging Ovide Lamontagne. It still doesn’t look likely he can pull out the upset unless somehow an extra week or two of stoppage time got added to the election’s clock (based on the rate at which he’s closing), but he’s within 4. The poll puts it at Kelly Ayotte 35, Lamontagne 31, Bill Binnie 14, Jim Bender 10.

• CO-Gov: Could the Colorado GOP find itself a “minor party” in 2012, mostly just an embarrassment but also something that affects where they’re positioned on the ballot? That’s what would happen if Dan Maes somehow finds himself gaining less than 10% of the vote in November’s gubernatorial race.

• MN-Gov: In a convoluted way, this is likely to help Dem nominee Mark Dayton. The former moderate Republican governor, Arne Carlson, announced that he’s backing the IP nominee, Tom Horner, and will be stumping on his behalf today. That may give some a nice outlet to moderate Republican rank-and-file loath to the too-far-right-for-Minnesota Tom Emmer but who can’t bring themselves to vote DFL.

• OR-Gov: Chris Dudley’s attempts to game the system vis-à-vis the clashing tax structures of Washington and Oregon get dicier the more the media look into it, maybe to the extent of actual tax avoision. (It’s a word. Look it up.) Long story short: he moved his primary residence from Oregon to Washington because Washington doesn’t have income tax (he still had to pay tax on his Trail Blazers salary, but not on capital gains and dividends). However, it’s come to light that not only did he not sell his Portland home, but he just kept on using it at least part-time for years after switching his domicile.

• TX-Gov (pdf): The Texas Tribune is out with another poll of the Texas gubernatorial race via the University of Texas, and they find that while Rick Perry has a decent lead, he’s far from putting the race away yet. Perry leads Dem Bill White 39-33, with 5 for Libertarian Kathie Glass, and 1 for “Green Party” plant Deb Shafto. Dems are losing all the statewide downballot races as well, although Hank Gilbert’s in striking distance in the Agriculture Commissioner race (down 33-26 to Todd Staples).

• LA-02: Despite the warm relations between Barack Obama and GOP Rep. Joe Cao, Obama isn’t going easy on Cao. Obama just gave his endorsement to Dem primary winner Cedric Richmond in a statement last night.

• MD-01: Wow, still no love lost between Wayne Gilchrest and the man who teabagged him to death in the 2008 GOP primary before teabagging was fashionable, Andy Harris. Gilchrest jumped into the fray with an endorsement for Harris’s self-funding primary opponent, Rob Fisher.

• NY-15: Clinton alert, times 4! Hot on the heels of support from Michael Bloomberg for Charlie Rangel ahead of tomorrow’s primary, Bill Clinton (maybe the 15th’s most famous commercial tenant) just cut a robocall on Rangel’s behalf too. The Big Dog is also making campaign appearances in three different gubernatorial races: stumping with Dan Onorato in Pennsylvania today, Mark Dayton in Minnesota tomorrow, and Rory Reid in Nevada on Wednesday.

• DCCC: At SSP, we’re all about The Size Of The Buy, and National Journal has sussed out which of the DCCC’s round of 60 reservations are the biggest ones. There are at least a dozen districts where they’ve reserved $1 million or more: MO-04, NV-03, NH-01, AZ-01, CA-11, AL-02, AZ-05, IN-09, ND-AL, PA-03, and (no surprise here, giving Larry Kissell’s fundraising fail) NC-08. Interestingly, they’re also putting $1.8 million in to FL-25, where they’re on the offensive, a sign of a lot of confidence in Joe Garcia’s chances. (The story also details some investments in big markets where there are multiple races and it’s unclear which races will get the money.)

• AFL-CIO: The AFL-CIO is spending big on a gigantic direct mail binge, hitting 2 million households of members. (They’ll also be making 4 million follow-up phone calls.) The six Senate races involved are NV-Sen, MO-Sen, WI-Sen, IL-Sen, FL-Sen, and PA-Sen; the four gubernatorial races are OR-Gov, OH-Gov, IL-Gov, and MI-Gov. There are also 24 House districts (see the link for more).

• SSP TV:

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid’s newest ad targets Sharron Angle’s “extreme and dangerous” legislative record, focusing on voting against allowing out-of-state restraining orders to be enforced in Nevada

• FL-12: Dennis Ross goes after Dem Lori Edwards, tying her to Obama

• FL-22: Ron Klein moves past the who-cares lien stuff and gets on to the juicy stuff regarding Allen West’s statements about Social Security and Medicare

• MS-01: Another Travis Childers spot goes negative on Alan Nunnelee, hitting him on the regressive “Fair Tax”

• Rasmussen:

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 46%, Tom Foley (R) 39%

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 50%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%

• SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 28%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 57%