Tag: New Jersey

I drew my map with the goal of getting as many Democratic seats as possible. This was before I knew New Jersey has a commision draw its seats so it is probably unrealistic. I looked up the politcal data and caculated the presidential results for each district. I managed to get 11 districts at 54% or better and one Republican seat.  

Northeast New Jersey



North New jersey



South New Jersey

District 1 – Frank LoBiondo(R-Ventnor)

Stays Pretty much the same loses its area in Burlington and Camden Counties for more democratic areas in Gloucester County

Voted 55.3-43.5 Obama

District 2 – Robert Andrews(D-Haddon Heights)

Andrews current district went 65% for Obama so I gave some of its democratic areas to the 1st and 3rd and picked up republican areas in Burlington and Ocean Counties.

Voted 58-40.7 Obama

District 3 – John Adler(D-Cherry Hill)

Adlers old district went 52% for Obama so I swaped some areas with Andrews gave it the rest of Norther Burlington County and gave it less of Ocean County

Voted 56.1-42.8 Obama

District 4 – Christoper Smith(R-Hamiliton) vs Rush Holt(D-Hopewell)

Since I took Burlington out of the old 4th I needed more democratic areas so I gave it all of Mercer County where both Smith and Holt live and to balance it out I gave it the rest of Ocean Coutny

Voted 55.8-42.9 Obama

District 5 – Frank Pallone(D-Long Branch)

Loses New Brunswick and Plainfield picks up Linden and picks up some republican areas of Monmouth County

Voted 54.3-44.6 Obama

District 6 – No Incumbent

Since I was trying to avoid a republican district in the south. When I put all of Mercer County in the 4th it left me with no incumbent near my 6th. Takes in New Brunswick and other Democratic areas in Middlesex County and Republican areas of Monmouth County.

Voted 55.4-43.6 Obama

District 7 – Lenoard Lance(R-Lebanon)

The old 7th barely went for Obama so I gave it more of Union County

Voted 54.1-45.1 Obama

District 8 – Donald Payne(D-Newark)

Lost its areas of Elizabeth and gained area in Essex and Morris counties. Is only 45% Black and 37% White

District 9 – Albio Sires(D-West New York)

Loses its finger to the south and picks up areas in Hudson and Bergen counties. Only 44% Hispanic and 37% White

District 10 – Bill Pascrell Jr(D-Patterson) Takes in almost all of Passaic County and some of Essex and some republican areas in Bergen County.

Voted 57.3-41.9 Obama

District 11 – Steven Rothman(D-Fair Lawn)

Loses area in Passaic and Hudson Counties picks up more area in Bergen County and Passaic City.

Voted 58.7-40.5 Obama

District 12 – Scott Garrett(R-Wantage) vs Rodney Frelinghuysen(R-Harding)

The 12th is left with Republican areas in the north.

I didnt have political data of Morris County but this district went about 56-43 McCain

The last time I redistricted NJ, I started from the north. That made for a messy 12th district that I wasn’t happy with. This time I started in the south, and came up with what I feel is a better map, especially because it isolates Ocean County in a Republican district.

District numbers are again the same, with the old 13th renumbered the 11th.

On to the maps!  

Newark Enlargement:

North Jersey:

Central Jersey:

South Jersey 1:

South Jersey 2:

So, Dave’s redistricting app now supports New Jersey. Keeping in mind that no political data is available, I stuck to the current district lines as much as possible. The biggest changes are in north and central Jersey, which had to lose a district. Merged are the two GOP members from the old 11th and 7th. Now both can attempt to run in the new 7th.

The old 13th was renumbered 11, and retains a healthy hispanic plurality (if not quite majority). The Black majority of the 10th is also protected.

With the exception of Rush Holt, who may have a slightly more difficult district (with some more work I may have been able to avoid this), I believe that the entire Democratic delegation is protected.  

North Jersey:

Newark:

Central Jersey:

South Jersey:

This is all supposedly based on 2008 estimates, but I think Dave would have to tell you exactly how he aggregated the numbers.

Episode 4 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states is here! I was inspired to finally put it together after BigTentProgressive’s excellent Texas redistricting diary. On the agenda today: some peaches for the First Lady’s new garden. (Which is my not-so-clever way of saying that I’m covering Georgia and New Jersey in today’s diary.)

Previously covered:

Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas

Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada

Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio

Unfortunately, my districts are based on county estimates from 2007, and just this week the Census released 2008 numbers. Since my maps were drawn before the 2008 release, they are worth taking with a grain of salt. Also, I am using projected seat totals for post-2010 redistricting that are equally subject to change.

Geeky playtime below the fold!

Georgia

Sadly for those of us who live here, there is close to zero chance of a Democratic takeover in the legislature and only an outside chance of snagging the open governor’s mansion in 2010, as the Dem bench has become thinner and thinner since the state GOP’s rebirth in 2002. So I drew this map with a GOP gerrymander in mind, and as a result, it doesn’t look dramatically different than the 2005 map currently in place. With the Atlanta area providing the vast majority of growth in the state, a new 14th District is likely to be carved out of suburban counties, and should lean Republican given who will be drawing the lines.

One wrinkle to the plan in this state: the Supreme Court’s ruling in Bartlett v. Strickland means that the 2nd, 12th, and 13th Districts, all with black populations around 40-45%, will not be considered protected by the Voting Rights Act for purposes of future redistricting. Now, Sanford Bishop and David Scott are both black and have never been GOP targets, but John Barrow could be a casualty in future cycles (since his seat is under 50% black, the Supreme Court would not consider it VRA-protected). The real question is, would GOP mapmakers gerrymander Barrow’s district for a white Republican, or for a black Democrat? Given the sensitivity of the issue, and the need not to spread GOP votes too thin, I’m guessing the latter option would be more likely in this case, so I clearly tried to increase the 12th’s black % by including more of Augusta.

Barrow’s seat should stay Dem-leaning, probably getting even more so as its black population is boosted. Bishop, Johnson, Lewis, and Scott will all be protected by a GOP-drawn map (though I couldn’t figure out how to make Scott’s a VRA African-American seat as long as it resembles its current form). Then, of course, there’s Jim Marshall. Knowing Republicans will try again to mess with him, I cut out Dem-trending Newton County and added some rural Middle Georgia turf with the aim of getting his 8th District to be about 60% McCain instead of 56%. But as long as his Macon base isn’t split, it’s hard to make the 8th much more inhospitable. (One obvious option I didn’t consider to endanger Marshall: trade some of his southern turf with Jack Kingston, whose seat is already ridiculously safe. Perhaps only a real Republican would think of these things.)

Anyway, Marshall aside, the other five Dem seats are as safe as before, if not safer.

Enough ado, here it is:

District 1 – Jack Kingston (R-Savannah) — my Representative (cringe) will have the most heavily Republican seat south of the Appalachian hills. Savannah’s east side and islands do lean Republican, but it’s really the many rural counties of South Georgia that cause my travesty of congressional representation.

District 2 – Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) — may be right on the threshold of 50% black, but either way, it stays at least 54-45 Obama, somewhat rural but anchored in Columbus and Albany, and doubtlessly safe for Bishop.

District 3 – Lynn Westmoreland (R-Grantville) — these are some of the most Republican counties in the Atlanta area, so perhaps some of them could be reserved for the new 14th, but I found that after finishing the 13 incumbents, there was leftover population east of the city, not west of it.

District 4 – Hank Johnson (D-Lithonia) — still majority-black and overwhelmingly Democratic, but now entirely within DeKalb County.

District 5 – John Lewis (D-Atlanta) — also majority-black and overwhelmingly Democratic, but now entirely within Fulton County.

District 6 – Tom Price (R-Roswell) — probably remains the most educated and wealthy district in the state, and despite Democratic trends in Cobb and north Fulton, the whole inclusion of Cherokee County will protect Price and future Republicans here.

District 7 – John Linder (R-Duluth) — entirely within Gwinnett now, safe for him (for now) but trending the other way long-term. I guesstimate that McCain would have won only 54-57% in this district, so the GOP would probably draw it a bit differently than I, but there’s no escaping the inevitable: whether it involves Linder’s retirement or a competitive new 14th, eventually there will be a Democrat representing the eastern suburbs as long as the area continues its long-term diversification.

District 8 – Jim Marshall (D-Macon) — a bit more Republican than before; Marshall might survive in this conservative and military-heavy district, but a future Democrat probably wouldn’t.

District 9 – Nathan Deal (R-Gainesville) — some of the most conservative territory anywhere is in Appalachian North Georgia, so Deal gets the “safest Georgia Republican” prize.

District 10 – Paul Broun (R-Athens) — I hate Athens being in this hard-right district, but Republicans quite like the arrangement.

District 11 – Phil Gingrey (R-Marietta) — with Cobb County trending Democratic long-term, Gingrey can take solace in the rest of his district, with fast-growing but very conservative Paulding County now a secondary population base.

District 12 – John Barrow (D-Savannah) — intending to increase the black percentage here, I give Barrow 71% of Chatham and 83% of Richmond. Though Barrow is getting entrenched, a credible black primary challenger could give him a run for his money, and as an open seat this would be good territory for a black pol from either Augusta or Savannah. In any case, the district’s Obama percentage should be boosted a couple points into the high 50s.

District 13 – David Scott (D-Atlanta) — this is an ugly and meandering shape, but my intent was to keep fast-growing eastern suburbs together in a GOP seat and consolidate Scott’s Atlanta base. I don’t know the black population in this district (can’t be much more than 40-45%), but including the entirety of Clayton County, and 13% of Fulton, can’t hurt. Though it holds 66% of somewhat GOP-leaning Henry County, the other suburban areas are fairly Dem-friendly (25% of Douglas County, Smyrna and other towns in eastern Cobb).

And the new District 14 – runs clockwise from Forsyth County down to Henry County — the long-term trends in this district are blue, at least in its southern half, but with deep-red Forsyth the largest source of population, Republican X should be fine for a few cycles at least. As long as Gwinnett and Henry stay in the GOP column, Democrats can only make so much headway here by winning Newton and Rockdale. My guess is the 2008 vote would have been about 60-40 McCain here.

So the end result is an 8-6 GOP delegation if Marshall survives, 9-5 if he doesn’t. Now if only I could figure out how to put my home in Barrow’s district without disrupting the 12th’s delicate VRA balance…

New Jersey

In New Jersey, the game is rather different. A bipartisan/independent commission draws the lines, but unlike in Iowa, political considerations are very present in the mapping process. This being a bipartisan effort, incumbent protection is a top priority. My map focused on protecting all incumbents, especially two in South Jersey (Dem John Adler, whose district under my proposal would be about as solidly Democratic as Rob Andrews’, and Republican Frank LoBiondo, whom I gave the most Republican district I possibly could). I kept Albio Sires’ seat VRA Hispanic and Don Payne’s VRA African-American.

The pinch is this: New Jersey is expected to shed a seat, for a new total of 12. I was initially planning to force together two North Jersey Dems (Bill Pascrell and Steve Rothman) then thought to instead put together two Republicans (Rodney Frelinghuysen and Leonard Lance), but realized that a bipartisan commission would likely seek a bipartisan fight. Thus my North Jersey districts are a bit ugly, especially Rothman’s 9th, but the solution was reached: Pascrell vs. Frelinghuysen in the new 8th, which probably would have favored Obama by a fair amount but is otherwise something of a swing district.

Again, apologies to Steve Rothman for the messy lines. He’s the new Frank Pallone in terms of representing an emaciated serpent in Congress:

District 1 – Rob Andrews (D-Haddon Heights) — still safely Democratic, but less so to help Adler, who would now represent 58% of Camden County, the home county of both Congressmen.

District 2 – Frank LoBiondo (R-Ventnor) — dominated by Ocean and Atlantic Counties, the most heavily Republican seat I could possibly carve out of South Jersey. It probably voted for McCain, though not by a lot, which is an improvement for the incumbent from a 54-45 Obama seat. Unlike before, Republicans would have a great shot at holding the 2nd when LoBiondo retires.

District 3 – John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) – 58% of Camden and 96% of Burlington = a safe seat.

District 4 – Chris Smith (R-Hamilton) — would now be not just more Republican, but more conservative too.

District 5 – Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) — sorry, folks, unless he’s a candidate for elimination, Garrett will be made safe by any commission-approved plan.

District 6 – Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch) — you must admit that these lines make a lot more sense.

District 7 – Leonard Lance (R-Clinton Township) — I attempted to pick up if not the more Republican areas of North-Central Jersey, then at least the less Democratic ones. The current 7th only narrowly voted for Obama and I think what I constructed may have (barely) voted for McCain, but there’s only so much that can be done for an incumbent with a district trending the other way. For Lance’s sake, he should work to maintain a moderate reputation.

District 8 – Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) vs. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-Morristown) — this is something of a quintessential North Jersey seat, with 67% of Pascrell’s home Passaic County, 59% of Frelinghuysen’s Morris, and the leftover 11% of Bergen. Since both Reps. have seniority and entrenched House careers under their belts, the real question is whether this district is liberal enough for Pascrell or conservative enough for Frelinghuysen. I have no idea how a real race would unfold here.

District 9 – Steve Rothman (D-Fair Lawn) — gerrymandered not for political expediency (Rothman has a safe seat, no question about it), but for pure numerical equalization.

District 10 – Donald Payne (D-Newark) — should still be majority-black and heavily Democratic.

District 11 – Rush Holt (D-Hopewell Township) — in the last round of redistricting, protecting Holt was the first consideration. Since his current district voted 58-41 for Obama, there’s little concern there, so my intent was to keep the district Dem-leaning and make it a little more compact.

District 12 – Albio Sires (D-West New York) — probably close to 50% Hispanic now due to demographic changes anyway, and including the leftover 27% of Union County shouldn’t much harm the district’s VRA legal status, particularly with all of Hudson County preserved in my proposed configuration.

11 incumbents are safe (most of them safer than before) in my plan, and the only real popcorn-worthy fight would be in the new 8th. New Jersey is one of the states I am least knowledgeable about demographically, so I’d greatly appreciate some insight into my hypothetical Pascrell/Frelinghuysen contest.

(This is a tremendous effort and a model for all future redistricting diaries, of which I’m sure we can expect many in the coming years – promoted by DavidNYC)

After reading Duffman’s excellent diary on redistricting New Jersey, I thought I’d take a crack at a 12-seat map. (I had done a 13-seat map awhile back, but it’s not nearly as exciting.) Unlike Duffman, though, I’m horribly shameless and did this without any intent of compactness, which I think will become readily obvious. My goal was to squeeze as many Democratic districts out as possible, while still conforming to the VRA.

I think I pretty much pulled out all the tricks in the book, while keeping Democratic incumbents in their home districts (although, seriously, Frank Pallone, get the f— out of Long Branch – you are singlehandedly responsible for half the ugliness of NJ districts). In the end, we get a 10-2 Democratic map, one where no Democratic district was less than 54% Obama at that. Maps, summary statistics, and more sardonic commentary over the flip.

To start, I used this map of Obama’s performance. Red/blue are obvious. Lightest shade is a margin of less than 5%, then 5-10, 10-20, and above 20. There’s a corresponding map for average margin from 2004-2006 (2008 hadn’t happened when I did the 13-seat map), which averages Kerry, Corzine, and Menendez’s margins.

So going district by district, here’s what we’ve got (for statistics, I also have raw vote totals, but I don’t think that’s as important here. The numbers here, in order, are: Population, Obama%, McCain%, Kerry%, Bush% in 2004.

Bottom line is, I don’t like Rob Andrews. I think what he pulled with his seat after challenging Lautenberg is pure BS, and I don’t think you’ll find me shedding any tears if he suddenly disappeared off the political stage. With that in mind, I tried to make his district less Camden-centric. It incorporates the entirety of Gloucester and Salem counties, along with the Republican parts of Salem. Camden proper and Andrews’ home in Haddon Heights is still here, but with the inclusion of Evesham Township in Burlington County, this district is majority not-Camden County. Obama ran just shy of 60%, Kerry got 55% – enough for a staunch Dem district.

I think there’s a lot of untapped potential in NJ-02, and we never seem to be able to capitalize. Unfortunately, with the slower population growth, this district has to expand northward. This district contains all of Atlantic and Cape May counties, and the parts of Cumberland not in the NJ-01. I’d like to think the split worked, given that Obama earned 62% in the NJ-02 part of Cumberland, while only 45% in the 1st. Throw in a bit of Ocean County, an arm into Camden, and some of Burlington including Democratic Pemberton, and you get a 54% Obama district. Kerry only narrowly lost here. Frank LoBiondo’s home in Ventnor City remains.

In my mind, there’s no point in dragging NJ-03 out to the Jersey shore, forcing it to pick up some nasty bits of Ocean County. (Packing and cracking, holler.) So this district pretty much runs diagonally up the state. Burlington is the center of population, but John Adler’s home of Cherry Hill (along with other Camden municipalities) stay in. Instead of touching Ocean County, it instead grabs some of the somewhat less-Republican Monmouth County – including Freehold and Marlboro Townships. On balance, you get a 57% Obama district – a big improvement over the 52% Obama scored in the current 3rd.

Well, the Republicans have to go somewhere, and this district is it. I tried to string together the most Republican parts of Ocean and Monmouth, and this strip running up the Jersey shore is what you get. I probably could have done a better job in Monmouth by pulling out some of the Democratic municipalities like Red Bank and given them to NJ-06, but that would have messed up the Middlesex districting. I take pride in that both Republican districts had Kerry scoring less than 40%, and Obama getting no more than 42%. I know that technically, Christopher Smith’s house in Hamilton Township is in Mercer County, but eh, I have no reservations against drawing Republicans out.

The other Republican district around here. Again, I tried to pack as much nastiness into this one district, and I think I mostly succeeded. This district takes in all of Sussex County. Originally, all of Warren and more of Morris county were going to go in, but I realized through some creative “tentacling,” this district could grab out some of the less-hospitable bits of Bergen (maintaining the Democratic performance in Steve Rothman’s district) without endangering Rush Holt. Hence the tentacles into Morris, Somerset, and Hunterdon. I think this also shows the relatively larger swing that Obama got in Northwest Jersey, as Obama did better here than in NJ-04, while Kerry did worse. Yes, Scott Garrett’s home in Wantage Township is still here.

When looking at the Presidential results, I realized that Plainfield, at 93% Obama (!!), was part of what was anchoring the Democratic performance here. This was putting a crimp in my plans for NJ-07, so I tried to keep the performance here up without Plainfield. The fact that this had to reach around large swaths of Monmouth County though, was a challenge. I thought Obama performed less well in the Monmouth part of the district (anchored in Asbury Park and Long Branch), but at 57%, no one’s complaining. Frank Pallone lives in Long Branch, which is along the shore (…seriously, move.) Staunchly Republican Middletown Township was getting in the way, along with roughly 50-50 Old Bridge. Luckily, the Brunswicks – New, North, East, and South – were happy to oblige, leaving Obama just shy of 60% here. Yes, this district is contiguous – just ask Sea Bright and Keansburg.

I had designed an old 7th district for Linda Stender awhile ago (when I thought she was going to win), so I made sure to keep Scotch Plains in this district. I also thought we were letting Democratic votes go to waste in Morristown, so I strung the two together. Because of the increased population requirement in going from 13 to 12 districts, this district takes in more bits of Essex and Somerset counties than before, but Obama’s solid 60% in the Plainfield-Westfield-Scotch Plains-Union Township anchor keeps this district at 55% Obama. Incidentally, Rod Frelinghuysen’s home in Harding Township gets placed here.

There are some good Democratic votes in Essex County that I didn’t want to all pack into Donald Payne’s district, so this is where they went. Added is Southern Passaic County, especially the very Democratic cities of Passaic, Clifton, and Paterson (where Bill Pascrell lives, incidentally). Also to relieve pressure on Steve Rothman, this district takes in four municipalities in Southwest Bergen County. You get a 61% Obama district, a few points shy of the current 8th, but Pascrell will survive.

This district, I think, changes the least from the current configuration. It keeps most of southern Bergen county. I would specify the municipalities that form the core, but I think the heuristic ‘towns in which you’re stuck in traffic on 95 before the Bridge” works well enough. It does reach a bit farther north than before, hitting the New York state line, and also south into Secaucus and Kearny in Hudson County – so basically, all of I-95 north of the Turnpike split and the Meadowlands. Fair Lawn – Steve Rothman’s residence – remains in this 61% Obama district.

The current NJ-10 and NJ-13 I always thought had unnecessary encroachments on each other, and this configuration cleaves Newark and Jersey City into separate districts. Obviously, this is centered on Newark (Donald Payne’s residence), which has about 40% of the district’s population. Also included are the Oranges, and a branch to hit Roselle Park through Elizabeth. I didn’t want too much Democratic goodness in Union and Essex to go here, so it reaches northwest from Newark to hit the nasty parts (Essex Fells, Fairfield, etc) and has a township in Morris County included for good measure. By my calculations, this district is 47.5% African-American and another 23% Hispanic/Latino, which should satisfy the VRA as a ‘coalition’ district. At 82% Democratic, this is the most Democratic in New Jersey.

Renumbered from the 13th, this district is centered on Jersey City and Bayonne. It also includes Hoboken and Albio Sires’ home in West New York. Going south, it goes through Elizabeth and Linden in Union county to Carteret, Woodbridge, and Perth Amboy in Middlesex. This district is 42% Hispanic and another 15% African-American, which again should satisfy the VRA. I think that’s why the current NJ-10 and 13 interfere so much, so that the majority-Black areas in Jersey City are included in the 10th and the predominantly Hispanic areas in Newark are kept in the 13th. Either way, 72% Obama, no worries.

Unquestionably, this is the district I’m most proud of. The current map was designed to help Rush Holt, and he does happen to be one of the Congresspeople I like more than most. So I set out trying to draw a good district for him. Obviously, the Democratic strength would have to come from Mercer County. Trenton is currently split between NJ-04 and this one, but with NJ-04 out of the picture, all of 93% Obama Trenton can fit here. Throw in Hopewell, Princeton, and you get a 74% Obama section. To the North, this district basically carves out the less Republican parts of Hunterdon, Warren and Somerset, and I think this shows – Obama scored 45% in this district’s part of Hunterdon, 46% in Warren, and 53% in Somerset, as opposed to the 38% he got in the parts of Hunterdon and Warren in the 5th and 40% in Somerset. Rush Holt’s home in Hopewell Township is here (as is Leonard Lance’s residence in Clinton Township in Hunterdon). At 57.9% Obama, this is only a 0.20% drop from Holt’s current district. Oh and yes, it is contiguous.

So there you have it. Questions, comments?

If you want shapefiles, vote statistics, outline maps, please ask!

District 1: Western Camden, Gloucester, northern Salem. Camden, Cherry Hill, Haddonfield, Woodbury, Glassboro.

District 2: Cumberland, Southern Salem, Cape May, southeastern Atlantic, Vineland, Bridgeton, Cape May, Cape May Courthouse, Atlantic City, Wildwood.

District 3: Northwestern Atlantic, most of  Ocean, parts of southern Monmouth. Mays Landing, Tuckerton, Manahawkin, Lacy, Jackson, Stafford, New Gretna, Howell, Wall.

District 4: Extreme southwestern Warren, western Hunterdon, western Mercer, northwestern Burlington,Trenton,Lawrenceville,Phillipsburg,

Lambertville,Mt. Holly, Riverside, Ewing, Hamilton.

District 5: Most of Hunterdon, Somerset, extreme western Union, Southwestern Middlesex, central and western Monmouth, Flemington, Sommerville, Bound Brook, Bedminster, Westfield, Jamesburg,

Monroe, Holmdel, Shrewsbury, Freehold, Manalapan.

District 6: Bayshore of Monmouth, coastal Monmouth, coastal Ocean, Keyport, Hazlet, Red Bank, Middletown, Long Branch, Asbury Park, Point Pleasant, Seaside Heights.

District 7: Northeastern Middlesex, most of Union,Metuchen, Edison, Clark, Woodbridge, Sayreville, Old Bridge, Plainfield, Mountainside, Summitt, Liden, Elizabeth, Rahway.  

District 8: Eastern Morris, southeastern Passaic, Morristown, Patterson, Wayne, Pompton Plains.

District 9: Most of Bergen, Hackensack, Ft. Lee, E. Rutherford, Bogota, Tenafly.

District 10: Most of Essex,Newark, West Orange, Irvington, Caldwell.

District 11: Most of Warren, Sussex, northwestern Passaic, western and central Morris,Newton, Sparta, Ogdensburg, Belvidere, Cedar Knolls, Mahwah, Totowa.

District 12: Most of Hudson, parts of southern Bergen, West New York, Bayonne, Jersey City, Weehawken, Union City, Hoboken.

The 2010 Census is coming up, and that means new Congressional districts. After the 2000 Census, New Jersey has 13 districts. After the 2010 Census, New Jersey is projected to have 12 districts. It will lose a district because it has not kept up with national population growth.

Here is the current Congressional Districts:



For a better view of the Congressional Districts, see this pdf provided by the state government.

Some observations:

1. 8 of the districts are represented by Democrats. 5 are represented by Republicans.

2. Some of the districts have very odd shapes. It looks ridiculously gerrymandered.

3. Many individual cities and towns are divided between 2 districts. (Jersey City is in 3 districts.) However no city in New Jersey has enough population to fill a congressional district.

4. 5 of the 21 counties have 4 districts in them. 4 more counties have 3 districts in them. However only a few counties (just Essex, Bergen, and Middlesex) have enough population to fill a congressional district.

5. The district numbers don’t make sense. They seem to be numbered at random. It would look better if the 5th and 12th switch numbers.

Some goals for drawing the new districts should include: make the districts as compact as possible, keep municipalities together at all times, keep counties together as much as possible, and number the districts in a way that makes sense.

When New Jersey does its redistricting, they focus on incumbent protection. Since 2000, one one district has changed parties. (We can still change that in 2010.) Only 3 others have even changed representatives! The 2010 plan should make the district that flipped (NJ-03) more solidly Democratic. But this time NJ is losing a district, so not all of the incumbents can be protected. Ask any NJ Democrat which Congressman they would like to see eliminated, and the answer will invariably be Scott Garrett. So my 2010 map turns the 3 Republican districts in Northern NJ into 2 Republican districts.

I used 2007 population estimates provided by the Census to create the new districts. The estimate for New Jersey is 8,686,000 people. That means each district has close to 724,000 people.

Here is what I came up with:



Look at those beautiful compact districts!

Numbers on the right map are population per district per county, in thousands.

Feel free to steal it. If you want a blank template without numbers and county names then email me.

Representative		old#	new#	old PVI	new PVI
Rob Andrews	D	1	2	D+14	D+13
Frank LoBiondo	R	2	1	D+4	D+1
John Adler	D	3	3	D+3	D+6
Chris Smith	R	4	4	R+1	R+4
Scott Garrett	R	5		R+4
Frank Pallone	D	6	6	D+12	D+12
Leonard Lance	R	7	7	R+1	R+9
Bill Pascrell	D	8	12	D+12	D+9
Steve Rothman	D	9	11	D+13	D+8
Donald Payne	D	10	9	D+34	D+32
Rodney Frehlinghuysen	R	11	8	R+6	R+1
Rush Holt	D	12	5	D+8	D+12
Albio Sires	D	13	10	D+23	D+23

Note: PVI’s are based on the 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections. New PVI’s are guesses, not calculations.

NJ-01:

Current district NJ-02 has a fairly strong Dem PVI, but Republican Congressman Frank LoBiondo manages to keep getting reelected easily. Except for the Atlantic City area, it is mostly rural. Due to slow population growth in the region, it will have to expand after 2010. It will almost certainly expand into Ocean County (conservative), and probably lose ground in Gloucester County (liberal). Therefore this district will become more Republican after 2010. If a Democrat wants to challenge Frank LoBiondo then 2010 is the year. After that it will get harder.

NJ-02:

Current district NJ-01 is centered around Camden and its immediate suburbs. In 2000 it was designed to be the only Dem district in South Jersey, so it packs in all the Dem strongholds around Camden (directly across the border from Philadelphia). The region’s population growth has not kept up with the national average, so the district will expand. It can’t expand into Cherry Hill because John Adler lives there. All of Camden and Gloucester County minus Cherry Hill and Merchantville has the right number of people to fill a district, according to 2007 Census estimates.

NJ-03:

NJ-03 is the only district that flipped parties this decade. It was designed to keep electing Republican Congressman Jim Saxton. In 2008 Saxton retired and Democrat John Adler won it 52-48. The district in its current form has 2 population centers. Cherry Hill and western Burlington County is strongly Democratic. Ocean County is strong Republican. The huge swath of land in between is sparsely populated. The way to make this district safer for Adler is to remove the Ocean County part, and add more Burlington County. In order to get enough people, the proposed district extends into Mercer County to include Hamilton and Trenton.

NJ-04:

In 2008 Chris Smith was elected to his 15th term in Congress. He was first elected to Congress at the age of 27, and he will keep getting reelected for as long as he wants. If we can’t beat him then we should pack more Republican parts into his district. His current district includes parts of Mercer, Burlington, Monmouth and Ocean counties. To make it more Republican, take out the Mercer and Burlington parts (and give them to Adler in NJ-03), and add more Monmouth and Ocean. Monmouth and Ocean counties are trending more Republican. Obama won a smaller percent of the vote in these 2 counties than Gore did in 2000. Chris Smith lives in Hamilton so he will have to move. That won’t be hard because he actually lives in Northern Virginia and he rents an empty apartment in Hamilton.

NJ-05:

This is the Rush Holt district (currently NJ-12 for some reason). The current district is weird-shaped because it reaches into Hunderdon and Monmouth Counties. The proposed district will consist of only Mercer, Middlesex and Somerset. This plan shows the district spanning from Hopewell to Edison, including both Princeton and Rutgers Universities.

NJ-06:

Current NJ-06 is probably the craziest-shaped district in the state. Proposed NJ-06 is much better. It’s still not as compact as the others because it has to follow the coast. The reason for its crazy shape was probably to take in only the very-Democratic parts, so there can be 3 Republican districts in North Jersey. With only 2 Republican districts in North Jersey it is much easier to give NJ-06 intelligible boundaries. Frank Pallone lives in Long Branch, on the Monmouth shore, so the Monmouth shore will continue to be part of the district, even as the region trends more Republican.

NJ-07:

Current NJ-07 is the other very crazy-shaped district. Most of its population is in the high-density suburbs in Union and Middlesex County. But Congressman Leonard Lance is from rural Hunterdon County. To make this district a better fit for Lance I removed Union and Middlesex and added Sussex, Warren, and “outer” Morris.

NJ-08:

This is now the second Republican district in North Jersey. It is made out of the current districts NJ-07 and NJ-11. Rodney Frehlinghuysen will be the incumbent Congressman and he should be able to get reelected easily. But this may become a swing district when it opens up.

NJ-09:

This is the majority-black district. Using 2000 demographic information, the proposed district is 48% black. 48% is enough to elect a black Congressman because black people are more likely than white people to vote in the Democratic primary. It is centered around Newark and the Oranges. The current NJ-10 is 58% black but I traded some black population for compactness.

NJ-10:

This is the majority-Hispanic district. It consists of Hudson County plus Elizabeth. This just happens to have the right number of people for a district. This proposed district is 43% Hispanic. 43% should be enough to elect a Hispanic Congressman (see above). The current NJ-13 is 48% Hispanic. This proposed configuration is nice and compact. There are other possible centers of Hispanic population (Passaic, Paterson) but it would take some creative gerrymandering to reach them.

NJ-11:

The current NJ-09 is in Hudson and Bergen County. The proposed NJ-11 is entirely within Bergen. Northern Bergen County is currently part of NJ-05, represented by Scott Garrett. Show this map to any Dem in Bergen County and you will be greeted as a liberator.

NJ-12:

Proposed NJ-12 consists of the rest of Bergen County, most of Passaic County, and bits of Essex County. Urban northern NJ is losing population, so Steve Rothman and Bill Pascrell are getting pushed into the suburbs.

Cross-posted on Daily Kos.

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

I want to share with you how excited I am about the incredible effort people are putting forth this weekend to bring the change we need to Washington, DC. In NJ-04 we’ve got over 700 volunteers talking to voters, handing out literature, making phone calls, and working as hard as we can to win this election.

We’re within striking range, so I’m asking you to please contribute through my ActBlue page. If you’d like to volunteer, please contact our Field Director at pete_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. I also encourage you to take a look at our website.

More after the jump.

Personally, I’m humbled by all these folks out there on my behalf. But I also know that we’re all part of a larger movement to bring progressive change to the halls of Congress and to the White House. Our goal is have a government that champions the interests of average Americans instead of ignoring them, that protects freedom instead of denying it, and that makes sure that the economy works for all of us, not just an elite few.

I still need your help to make this happen in NJ-04. Our opponent, House ‘pro-life’ caucus chairman Chris Smith, is running negative attack ads mentioning me by name as we speak. This is important because it means, for the first time in a very long time, he actually thinks he might lose. Any last minute contributions you can make will go right to spreading our message directly to voters and to get out the vote efforts.

Now is the time to make this seat a late breaker with one last contribution.

Thanks so much,

Josh

Today, the Zeitz for Congress campaign unveiled a new radio advertisement titled “Eight Nights.” The ad draws attention to Chris Smith’s failure to live in New Jersey, having spent only eight nights in the state during 2007, and the recent revelation that Smith received nearly $80,000 in tuition breaks reserved only for official Virginia residents.

You can listen to the ad here.

“After twenty-eight years in Congress, Chris Smith has become a creature of Washington. The voters I speak with are shocked and outraged when they learn Chris Smith refuses to live in New Jersey and does not pay our high property taxes. For many of them, learning Smith receives in-state tuition discounts in Virginia is the final straw,” said Josh Zeitz. “It’s not too much to ask that our representative in Congress actually lives in New Jersey.”

Key Facts:

   * Chris Smith spent only eight days in 2007. [PolitickerNJ 4/28/08]

    * Chris Smith is the only member of the New Jersey delegation to not own a home in New Jersey. [PolitickerNJ 4/28/08] He’s saved nearly $60,000 in property taxes by living in Virginia.

    * Chris Smith receives in-state tuition benefits reserved only for official Virginia residents. [Politico 10/20/08]

Josh needs your help to defeat Chris Smith. Please consider volunteering as well as contributing to the campaign. To put it bluntly, the more money we can raise the more play this ad gets on the radio, and the more undecided voters we can reach. We also need volunteers to help get out the vote. To volunteer contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com.

The Zeitz for Congress campaign today requested that the Mercer County Superintendent of Elections investigate Chris Smith’s voter registration, and revoke it if she discovers fraud.

The Facts:

1) Smith filed for, and received, in-state tuition rates for his children attending Virginia public colleges.

2) In Virginia, dependent students are assigned the residency of their parents for determining tuition rates.

3) Virginia code requires the parents to have “abandoned any previous domicile,” in New Jersey in order to receive the $80,000 tuition breaks.

4) Chris Smith claims he was legally entitled to these benefits reserved for Virginians, but won’t produce the documentation to confirm his claim.

More after the jump.

                                                           

“In the best case scenario, Smith is cheating taxpayers by receiving $80,000 worth of in-state tuition breaks to an out-of-state university,” said Zeitz Campaign Manager Steve D’Amico. “The alternative scenario, of course, is that he has domiciled in Virginia and is eligible for in-state tuition at UVA, but that would mean he has “abandoned” New Jersey and has no legal right to vote in New Jersey or represent its citizens in Congress. Our request to the Superintendent is aimed at discovering the truth.”

A full copy of the Zeitz Campaign request follows:

October 22, 2008

Bettye Monroe

Mercer County Superintendent of Elections, Commissioner of Registration

Dear Superintendent Monroe:

We are writing regarding Chris Smith, candidate for Congress in New Jersey’s Fourth Congressional District and registered voter in Hamilton. We are concerned that Congressman Smith filed a fraudulent voter registration application. In that registration, we believe Smith falsely claimed that he is a New Jersey resident.  

During each of the last few years, Smith filed an application for in-state educational privileges for his children at the University of Virginia (UVA).   UVA, a school supported by the Commonwealth of Virginia, provides in-state tuition benefits only to those who claim Virginia as their domicile. (See attached excerpt from Office of Undergraduate Admissions)   Under Virginia law, “domicile is a technical, legal concept that refers to the present, fixed, home of an individual to which he or she returns following temporary absences and at which he or she intends to remain indefinitely – one’s permanent and lasting home.” Id.

Additionally, Virginia code requires that a “dependent student or unemancipated minor must establish by clear and convincing evidence that for a period of least one year immediately prior to the date of alleged entitlement, the parent or legal guardian through whom the student claims eligibility was domiciled in Virginia and had abandoned any previous domicile.” Id.

We request an explanation of how Chris Smith may vote in New Jersey after having “abandoned” New Jersey as a domicile.   Smith’s voluntary application for Virginia in-state educational benefits demonstrates his choice that Virginia, not New Jersey, is his domicile. Smith cannot be a registered voter in New Jersey and a Virginia domicile at the same time, particularly as Virginia requires that its domiciles “intend to remain indefinitely.” Smith cannot tell Virginia that he intends to remain in Virginia indefinitely while simultaneously claiming that he is domiciled in New Jersey.   Since no one compelled Smith to apply for in-state educational benefits, his voluntary act of filing the in-state tuition application clearly signals that he has chosen to be a Virginia resident.

For these reasons, we respectfully request that you revoke Smith’s registration. Given the timing of the election, we request that you rule on this request immediately.

Sincerely,                                                          

ZEITZ FOR CONGRESS