Crazily, though, ten-term GOP Rep. Spencer Bachus is also airing ads in advance of his primary in AL-06, some $70K worth. Bachus has spent an amazing $680K on his campaign so far, even though his challenger, teabagger Stan Cooke, has raised just $29K total. This is the reddest district in the nation according to Cook PVI (R+29), which may explain Bachus’s anxiety, since he is the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee and voted in favor of the bailout.
Tag: bill clinton
SSP Daily Digest: 5/12 (Morning Edition)
Tim Holden (D-inc): 54
Sheila Dow-Ford (D): 27
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4.9%)David Argall (R): 21
Frank Ryan (R): 17
John First (R): 7
Allen Griffth (R): 5
Undecided: 47
(MoE: ±4.3%)
While Dow-Ford probably can’t unseat Holden, these are some uninspiring numbers for the incumbent, who only gets 38% re-elects. Obama’s job approval is 32-56.
SSP Daily Digest: 5/11 (Morning Edition)
SSP Daily Digest: 5/3 (Morning Edition)
On the Dem side, zillionaire mortgage-shorting mogul Jeff Greene says he’ll “spend whatever it takes” to win his primary against Rep. Kendrick Meek. That must be music to Joe Trippi’s ears. Greene is unelectable but thanks to his monstrous bankroll, he can do a lot of harm to Democratic chances in this race. Trippi is aiding and abetting this bullshit, and will profit handsomely.
This may also have repercussions in the HI-01 race, where state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa may have pushed the bill through in an attempt to repair relations with the LGBT community after the same bill got scuttled in January. Hanabusa says she doesn’t support gay marriage, though, while Democratic rival Ed Case does. Republican Charles Djou opposes the measure.
More importantly, the NRCC just threw down another quarter million bucks on behalf of Burns, bringing their total spending on this race to over $725K. The DCCC has yet to respond to this latest blast.
SSP Daily Digest: 3/4 (Afternoon Edition)
• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln is up with her first ad, as she runs for the Republican nomination for the Senate race. Wait… what? She’s running as a Democrat? Hmmm, that’s not what her ad says, as it’s a list of every which way she’s bucked the Democratic party line in the last year (and closing by saying “I don’t answer to my party, I answer to Arkansas”). That’d make sense if she were running in the general election, but there’s a little matter of her having to get out of the primary first… Meanwhile, the base continues to abandon Lincoln; today it was EMILY’s List, who say they won’t be lifting a finger to help Lincoln. She may still get a lifeline from Bill Clinton, though, who’s continuing to back her. And Bill Halter better be committed to seeing this Senate primary thing through, because state Sen. Shane Broadway just filed to run to keep the Lt. Governor spot in Democratic hands.
• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Republican polling firm Magellan (apparently not working on behalf of any candidates) issued more polls of the two Republican primaries in California. The polls are pretty much in line with what everyone else is seeing: on the Senate side, Tom Campbell leads at 33, followed by Carly Fiorina at 20 and Chuck DeVore at least cracking double-digits at 11. For the gubernatorial race, Meg Whitman is cruising, beating Steve Poizner 63-12.
• CT-Sen: When it comes to the Connecticut senate race, Dick Blumenthal is the Superfly TNT. Hell, he’s the Guns of the Navarone. In fact, he lays a massive mushroom cloud on Linda McMahon (60-31), Rob Simmons (58-32) and Peter Schiff (57-27) alike — and yes, this is according to Rasmussen. (D)
• IL-Sen: In an interview with the Chicago Tribune’s editorial board, Alexi Giannoulias said he believes his family’s bank is likely to get EATED (as Atrios would say) by the FDIC in the coming months. Perhaps worse, the Trib says that Giannoulias isn’t being forthcoming about what he knew about the bank’s loans to convicted bookmaker and pimp (i.e. mobster) Michael “Jaws” Giorango. Ugh. (D)
• KY-Sen: If the Dems are seeing a bit of an uptick in selected polls lately, they aren’t seeing it in Kentucky yet, at least not if Rasmussen has anything to say about it. Rand Paul leads Jack Conway 46-38 and Dan Mongiardo 49-35, while Trey Grayson leads Conway 45-35 and Mongiardo 44-37. Not much change in the trendlines, except for, oddly, Mongiardo’s standing vis-à-vis Grayson improves while Conway’s slips. Meanwhile, Conway is hitting the airwaves with a new TV spot, wisely taking Jim Bunning’s one-man crusade against unemployed people and hanging it around the necks of Paul and Grayson.
• NJ-Sen: Apparently the 2010 elections are just too boring. Farleigh Dickinson University tested Sen. Bob Menendez versus his 2006 opponent, Tom Kean, Jr., finding a tie (39-38 for Kean, with 17% undecided). Seriously, though, testing horserace numbers this far out just seems silly. Can you imagine what similar polls would have shown for the GOP in 2004? (D)
• NV-Sen: Jon Ralston sits down for a chat with erstwhile Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian, a.k.a. the only man who can inadvertently save Harry Reid. Ashjian, a wealthy contractor (whose company has more than its share of complaints and liens), plans to fund his own way, and discounts claims that he’s somehow being put up to it by the Reid camp as a vote-splitter.
• NY-Sen-B: Sigh, what could have been… Harold Ford Jr. met with Karl Rove in 2004 to discuss the possibility of running for Senate in Tennessee in 2006… as a Republican. Ford isn’t denying the meeting, but, in his, um, defense? says that it was Rove’s idea.
• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett keeps on being a punching bag for the GOP’s right wing, and today the Club for Growth weighed in with an anti-Bennett ad, airing on (where else?) the Fox News Channel in Utah. It’s targeted purely at state GOP insiders, urging them to send anti-Bennett delegates to the state nominating convention. The CfG hasn’t settled on one particular candidate they’re for; all they know is who they’re against.
• GA-Gov: PPP follows up its Georgia general election numbers from yesterday with a look at the Republican gubernatorial primary. (The Democratic primary seems to look like an adequately foregone conclusion to them.) No surprises: Insurance Comm. John Oxendine leads at 27, followed by Karen Handel at 19, Nathan Deal at 13, Austin Scott and Eric Johnson at 3, and Jeff Chapman and Ray McBerry at 2.
• MD-Gov: There’s been lots of focus on the leaked RNC strategy document today, mostly for its rather shameless descriptions of its fundraising plans. There are a few noteworthy strategic items here, though — maybe most interestingly, they’ve totally left Michael Steele’s home state of Maryland off the list of gubernatorial races they’re pushing. It remains to be seen whether it’s because Bob Ehrlich isn’t getting in after all, they don’t think he has a ghost of a chance, or just general RNC bungling. (Also interesting: on the Senate side, they’re even targeting Charles Schumer, but they’ve left off Patty Murray, which may suggest it isn’t getting any better for the GOP than Don Benton in Washington.)
• MI-Gov: Two endorsements in the pipeline in the Michigan gubernatorial race. Mike Huckabee weighed in on the GOP side, picking AG Mike Cox, calling him the “pro-life, pro-gun” candidate over the probably more right-wing Rep. Peter Hoekstra. (I’m not sure how much pull Huckabee has in Michigan. As for me, I’m waiting to see who Ted Nugent endorses.) On the Dem side, this is still purely rumor, but the word is that the United Auto Workers plan to endorse Lansing mayor Virg Bernero (who showed he had their backs with his passionate televised defenses of the auto bailout). The stamp of the state’s most powerful union would go a long way toward uniting union backing behind one Dem.
• NY-Gov: The clock seems to be ticking even louder for David Paterson, as today one of his top aides, spokesperson Peter Kauffmann, resigned and distanced himself. Kauffmann said that, in light of the ethics ruling about the World Series tickets, he could no longer “in good conscience continue.”
• OH-Gov, OH-01: VPOTUS Watch: Joey Joe Joe Biden Shabadoo will visit Cleveland on March 15 to do a fundraiser for Gov. Ted Strickland. He’ll also be doing a separate event for Rep. Steve Driehaus. (D)
• AR-01: The fields for both sides in the open seat left behind by Rep. Marion Berry are slow to take shape, but it looks like the Democrats found a decent-sounding candidate who can bring some of his own money with him. Terry Green, an orthopedic surgeon with his own practice, has filed, sounding some populist notes in his first comments to the press.
• IL-08: Ah, the party of fiscal responsibility. Joe Walsh, the GOP’s candidate in the 8th, stopped making mortgage payments on his Evanston condominium in May 2009 and lost it to foreclosure in October. Putting a positive spin on it, Walsh says “This experience helped me gain a better appreciation for the very real economic anxieties felt by 8th District families.”
• MI-03: Here’s a positive development: Democrats are actually lining up to contest the R+6 open seat in Grand Rapids left behind by retiring GOP Rep. Vern Ehlers. Former Kent Co. Commissioner Paul Mayhue is about to enter the Dem field, where he’ll join attorney Patrick Miles.
• MI-06: Ex-state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk, who was badly beaten by Carl Levin in 2008’s Senate race, is now setting his sights on knocking off incumbent Rep. Fred Upton in the Republican primary. Hoogendyk, who has yet to make a decision on the race, sent out an email to supporters blasting Upton for his votes in favor of TARP, No Child Left Behind, and S-CHIP. Upton’s district has an even PVI, and went for Bush twice by seven-point margins before Obama won the district by a comfy 54-45 spread in ’08. (J)
• NH-01: A run in the 1st by RNC committee member Sean Mahoney is now looking much likelier, even though he’d scoped out the race and decided against it last year. Last year, it was looking like former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta had the nomination to himself, but Guinta’s bad fundraising and bad press have lured a few other contenders into the GOP field.
• NY-15: With Charlie Rangel’s position looking increasingly precarious, CQ takes a look at some possible names who might replace him, should he decide not to seek another term (including state Sen. Bill Perkins, Assemblymen Keith Wright and Adriano Espaillat, and city councilors Inez Dickens and Robert Jackson). He already has a few primary challengers – former aide Vincent Morgan and possibly Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV. Meanwhile, the chairmanship of Rangel’s Ways & Means Committee has hopscotched around in the last few days, to California’s Pete Stark and today to the less-controversial Michigan’s Sander Levin. The chair of this powerful committee (which oversees tax laws) tends to rake in tons of campaign contributions – and dole them out to fellow caucus members, so it’s worth keeping an eye on who actually replaces Rangel on a permanent basis. (This is also why so many peeps have returned money to Rangel – because he’s given out so much.) (D)
• New York: Could he really be eyeing a comeback? According to Time Magazine, Eliot Spitzer is “bored out of his mind” these days, but also says he doesn’t want to subject his family to the inevitable ugliness that would ensue if he ran for something again. Meanwhile, former Spitzer confidante Lloyd Constantine, the man Spitzer called right before the news of his involvement with prostitutes broke, has turned on his former mentee with a new tell-all book. The stars are definitely not aligned for Spitz, if they ever were. (D)
• Maps: You know you love them (otherwise you wouldn’t be at SSP). And jeffmd has a whole new bunch of ’em, looking at the results of the Texas Republican gubernatorial primary and how they might translate into the general.
• Healthcare: The Wall Street Journal has a chart laying out how members of the House might vote on the next iteration of the healthcare reform bill, listing public statements (if any) they’ve made since the last vote. This really should be in wiki form, though – for instance, they don’t have Mike Arcuri’s remarks (see Morning Digest). (D)
• Redistricting: The NYT takes a look at the people who applied for a spot on California’s state legislative redistricting commission. Fourteen spots have been set aside for ordinary citizens… and 31,000 people (including probably at least a few SSPers!) applied. Progress Illinois also has a detailed look today at the new proposals underway to make the redistricting process fairer (or at least less random).
• Blogosphere: Finally, we’re sad to see one of our favorite blogs apparently calling it quits. Over the last two years, Campaign Diaries became a must-read, both for insightful analysis and for making sure that no comings-and-goings in any races fell through the cracks. We wish Taniel well in his next endeavors.
MA-Sen: Big Dog for Coakley As Capuano May Be Gaining
With the Democratic primary special election to replace Ted Kennedy set for tomorrow, AG Martha Coakley brought out her biggest gun last, via robocall:
Last night, her campaign announced that President Clinton had recorded the phone message.
“Martha Coakley will go to Washington to fight every day to create good jobs with good benefits and to get health reform with a strong public option,” Clinton says in the message. “You can trust her to get results in the Senate just as she has as your attorney general. This election is very important to Massachusetts. So don’t forget to vote tomorrow and please vote for Martha Coakley.”
Coakley is hoping to blunt some last-minute momentum from Rep. Michael Capuano, at least as seen in his own internal poll from pollster Tom Kiley. Kiley says that Coakley is “around” 35, with Capuano down by 7 points (for presumably 28), with Stephen Pagliuca around 10 and Alan Khazei around 7. This is quite different, naturally, from Coakley’s own internals announced on Friday, where she leads Capuano 41-20, so the question remains: is Capuano within striking distance, or not?
City Year founder Khazei doesn’t look like he’s going to be winning, but his is an interesting story, in terms of the establishment endorsements he picked up along the way. Not only did he get the Boston Globe’s endorsement, but this photo via Politico gives a hint of where the Kennedy family’s heart may lie: it shows Caroline Kennedy in attendance at Michael Bloomberg’s fundraiser for Khazei (although she did not officially endorse or even donate).
RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Sen
NY-23: Whole Lotta Shakin’ Goin’ On
Much to discuss re the NY-23 special election.
- In what I think is the biggest piece of recent news, the Working Families Party is endorsing Democrat Bill Owens. This means that Owens will get their ballot line, of course, but it hopefully also signals that the WFP plans to deploy its well-honed ground resources on Owens’ behalf. Last year, in a state Senate special election in a very red district in the same part of New York, the WFP sent 25 canvassers full-time and got huge praise all around for helping Dem Darrel Aubertine pull off a major upset.
- Competing for the top slot is word that Barack Obama will hold a fundraiser for Owens in New York City on Oct. 20th. Obama, as you know, has shown a frustrating reluctance to personally involve himself in downballot races (for the NY-20 special, the best he could muster was a Biden radio ad). So I take his engagement as a sign that his political team likes Owens’ chances, and thinks a win here would be a key score. Of note: Bill Clinton and Kirsten Gillibrand have both sent out fundraising emails for Owens – someone with a lot of juice is making this stuff happen.
- Dede Scozzafava scored the NRA’s endorsement. Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman had recently gone on the air with an ad touting his NRA membership – so much for that, I suppose.
- Had your hopes about Scozzafava’s ideology? Think she might wind up as a Susan Collins-type, or even the GOP’s version of Joe Lieberman? Wonder no more! NRCC chair Pete Sessions explains it all:
Sessions assured Members that despite Scozzafava’s moderate leanings… she will be voting with the Republican Conference 95 percent or more of the time.
- The party committees drop a bunch more scrilla on the North Country. The DCCC is in for a cool hundred grand on TV ads, while the NRCC plunks down about 65 large, also, it seems, for airtime. Here’s a look at the DCCC’s newest spot on the left, as well as a new web video on the right:
Ohio, Part 3
By: Inoljt, http://thepolitikalblog.wordpr…
Like most states, Ohio contains several swing areas. Some lean Democratic; others lean Republican. A good politician will usually pick up most of these regions on his or her way to victory.
Swing Ohio
The following map provides a sense of swing Ohio.
Providing balance, the map encompasses two solid Democratic victories and two solid Republican victories. Bearing this in mind, one can readily make out the structural ‘7’ of Ohio politics. Absent three counties, swing Ohio roughly encompasses the outer edges of Ohio’s northern and eastern borders, creating a shape that resembles the number ‘7.’ Strong Democrats win these swing counties and fatten the ‘7.’ Strong Republicans do the inverse.
Let’s look again at Bill Clinton’s 1996 victory.
As noted previously, Clinton is creating a fat ‘7’ in his re-election.
There are several other things that should be observed about Clinton’s victory with regard to swing Ohio. At the bottom of the state, Clinton is winning a group of thinly populated, Appalachian counties. One of these counties is Athens County, home to Ohio State University; it is reliably liberal due to the college. The rest lean Republican. A strong traditional Democrat can and often will win southeast Ohio; if this happens, his Republican opponent is probably going down to defeat.
Bill Clinton is also winning three counties surrounded by red. One of these – Dayton – is the Democratic equivalent of southeast Ohio: it leans Democratic but will occasionally turn up on the other side. In that case the Republican will soon be receiving a concession call.
The other two counties are moving in opposite directions. In Clinton’s day, Clark County – Springfield – and Columbus were two cities squarely in Ohio’s swing category. Since then, however, Springfield has been drifting right: Gore won the county, Kerry and Obama lost it. Meanwhile, Columbus has been doing a hard swing left, so that neither it nor Springfield are swing regions anymore.
Finally, one may note that many places I define as “swing” are colored light red, rather than purple in the first map. This was because of Barack Obama’s peculiar performance in Ohio. The president won the state with an unconventional coalition: he lost much of swing Ohio and made up for it by performing extremely well in Columbus, Cincinnati, and northern Ohio. Whether this coalition was unique to 2008 or foreshadows a structural shift in Ohio is unknown. Personally, I prefer the former explanation.
PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Staying Positive with a Message of Hope and Change
There really isn’t a lot left to say as we head into the final 24 hours of the campaign. First, and most important, Kelly, Amanda and I want to thank everyone who has helped in any way with the campaign. The one thing I will take away from this experience, regardless of the outcome on Tuesday, is the people I’ve met, the communities I’ve visited and the stories we’ve shared.
It has also been encouraging how many people have stepped up over the last 2 weeks to help with donations to the campaign. Once our opponent got desperate and decided to go negative there were many people and organizations who stepped up and sent in late donations. These late donations allowed us to expand our media advertising and create a second TV ad to combat the distortions coming from our opponent’s campaign.
I think once they realized they offered no ideas or solutions for the 5th district, the only way they could win was to trot out the usual wedge issues and scare the voters into thinking I’m someone that I’m not. Now we know how Barack Obama feels.
I want to close out this campaign on a positive note.
Keep encouraging everyone you know to get out and vote on Tuesday. Remind them that while the top of the ballot for President is the race everyone is interested in, the next most important race is the 5th district race. This is our chance to reverse 8 years of bad policy and take our future back. Tuesday will be historical and we can be part of it by sending a Democrat to Congress from the 5th district for the first time in 30 years. Most important to remember — the Democratic message throughout the long campaign has been a positive one stressing HOPE and CHANGE.
Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:
I participated in several additional debates / forums with the other 2 candidates for the 5th district seat this week. There was really nothing new to report as both my opponents stayed on script with the expected answers to the usual questions. After going through this process, I am pleased that we did so many debates across the 5th district. Voters across the district had many opportunities to come out and see the candidates in person and hear where we stand on the issues.
We had a great GOTV rally in Clarion on Saturday with a nice turnout of people from the Clarion area including members of the Clarion University Young Democrats and members from the IUPAT union. I was honored to share the stage with PA House candidate Matt Ellenberger, Clarion County Democratic Chairman Bill Miller and IUPAT National President James Williams.
I had 2 big highlights this week — Meeting former President Bill Clinton in State College and meeting our next Vice President, Senator Joe Biden at a rally in Williamsport.
Mark meets and receives the endorsement of Bill Clinton.
Meeting our next VP Joe Biden in Williamsport.
It was an honor to meet both of these great men and it is something I will always remember. I learned that Senator Biden and I have something in common. He also served as a county commissioner in Delaware before he was elected to the United States Senate.
Here is a picture from the rally in Williamsport that appeared in the Lock Haven newspaper.
The gathering in Williamsport.
Schedule for Upcoming Week:
Monday — 7 PM — DuBois Democratic Committee Meeting
Tuesday — Election Day
Wednesday & Beyond — To Be Decided by the Voters in the 5th District.
Mark B. McCracken
Your Candidate For Congress
————————————————————————————————–
This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth
Mark McCracken for Congress
ActBlue page
PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Progress Report — 4/21/08
Another Busy Week – Less Than 1 Day To Go!!!
I started out the week on Monday with a trip to State College to meet with the PSU College Democrats. I took the time to give special thanks to the PSU Dems for their hard work getting students registered to vote in this election. It really is encouraging to see how interested young voters throughout the district are about this election. I think our young people realize that they have to get involved and make a difference in this election.
Later in the week on Thursday, I had an afternoon radio interview on WPHB followed in the evening with a trip to Clarion for the Clarion University Young Dems Spring Unity Banquet. The Clarion Young Dems have a very involved and active group. They have had representation at every 5th District candidate event held in Clarion throughout the campaign. It was great to get a final chance to meet with them before Election Day. We also had people in attendance throughout the day at the stops by President Clinton in Brookville, St. Marys and Clearfield. The crowd in Clearfield to see Pres. Clinton wrapped around the front of the Clearfield Middle School and wrapped around onto Mill Rd. Everyone was in high spirits and thankfully the weather cooperated. Our campaign stopped and talked about the issues important to citizens of the 5th District and we feel that our message was warmly received by the gathered crowd.
Friday, I traveled to DuBois to participate in Eyes Wide Open, a traveling exhibit to help educate the public on the real costs of the Iraq war. The exhibit contained several banners that describe the monetary costs of the war and compares what we could do here in the United States with the funds. The most moving part of the exhibit was the 183 pairs of military boots with the names attached of the fallen PA soldiers and civilians who have died in Iraq during the conflict. It was a very moving exhibit and should make our resolve even stronger to end the conflict and bring the troops home as soon as possible.
On Saturday, we attended the annual Blue White Game at Penn State. It was a warm sunny day and it was a lot of fun working the tailgate parties in the parking lot. However, I found 2 things: 1 – The majority of Penn State fans travel in from outside of the 5th district, and 2 – A good number start drinking the hard stuff early in the morning and have no interest in politics once the alcohol takes effect. I do want to thank State Rep. Scott Conklin, the PSU College Dems and the Obama State College Campaign Staff for hosting a great tailgate event. One note from the blogger: You can see more about the Blue White Game in the CDT article written by Mike Joseph. It can be found here:although I’m not sure if I would make a good caddy.
The week ended today with a trip back over to Happy Valley to work the line waiting to attend Sen. Hillary Clinton’s visit to Penn State. It was an excited group waiting to see Sen. Clinton and their spirits were high in spite of a cold downpour that started around 5:30. I really enjoy the one on one campaigning that we were able to do both Saturday and Sunday.
I’ll close this last report before Election Day with a round of thanks to everyone who has helped with the campaign thus far. We started back in mid-January and what has been accomplished so far is because of everyone who has been involved. I also want to thank and wish the best of luck to all the Democratic candidates who are on the ballot on Tuesday. It’s been a privilege to campaign and attend events with these people.
Finally, I want to give a special thank you to my 2 fellow Democratic candidates in the 5th District race. I truly admire the way Rick, Bill and I have focused on the issues of this campaign, met with the voters and kept our campaigns positive. I’ve told several people over the last week, our party and our eventual nominee in the 5th district will be stronger because of the positive campaigns all 3 of us ran. Regardless of who wins on Tuesday, we are tested and ready to take on the Republican candidate in November. I have a stronger opinion today than I did in January when I started the campaign – a Democrat WILL be elected in the 5th Congressional District in 2008.
One final note: Please tell as many people as you can – Support Mark B. McCracken for Congress – #1 on the Democratic Ballot.
Mark B. McCracken
Your Candidate For Congress
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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth
Mark McCracken for Congress
ActBlue page