Tag: Redistricting

Using Dave’s Application, I have drawn a redistricting plan for Louisiana.  It appears that the state will be losing one seat in 2012, so the plan here has six seats.  There is currently only one Democrat in the entire delegation, and this plan aims to make that two or three Democrats, including two African-Americans.  I tried to make the map so districts are relatively compact, no parish is split among more than two districts, and altogether only 13 out of Louisiana’s 64 parishes are split at all.  

Louisiana’s legislature is currently Democratic controlled, although it may switch to GOP or divided control by 2012.  The governor is a Republican.  Nevertheless, the state is about 1/3 black, and so out of 6 seats, two should ideally be represented by an African-American.  With preclearance and VRA requirements, it may indeed be possible to draw a plan such as this and the Obama DOJ may even aim at making such a plan mandatory (even if state government control was all in GOP  hands).  Even with a huge loss of population in New Orleans, two relatively compact African-American Democratic seats centered on New Orleans (LA-2) and Baton Rouge (LA-6), respectively, are still quite feasible.  

The third possible Democratic seat, LA-4, would be in the northern part of the state (with GOP control, it would perhaps be hard to draw the seat this way, but if the legislature stays Democratic, it may be possible, especially because the seat as drawn is quite compact).  I must admit I am not that familiar with the intricacies of Louisiana politics, so perhaps this plan would not work at all, but I’m throwing it out there anyhow.

District 1 – blue

81% white; 9% black; 21% Obama; 78% McCain

Suburbs and exurbs of New Orleans and Baton Rouge, this district would become perhaps the most Republican congressional district in the country under this plan.

District 2 – green

50% black (50%+); 40% white; 66% Obama; 33% McCain

Due to large population losses following Katrina, this New Orleans based district has to necessarily expand geographically.  I make it go into areas south and west of the city, maximizing black and Democratic numbers.  The new district is less Democratic than the current one (which is 74% Obama) but whichever Democrat beats Cao in 2010 should have no trouble here come 2012.

District 3 – red

73% white; 18% black; 28% Obama; 70% McCain

This district includes a good part of “Cajun Country” in southern Louisiana as well as the eastern part of East Baton Rouge parish.  The new seat is heavily GOP.

District 4 – purple

55% white; 40% black; 44% Obama; 55% McCain

If Carmouche had run under these new lines, he would have very likely won last year, as the current district is only 40% Obama/59% McCain and Carmouche lost to Fleming by a couple hundred votes.  Whether Carmouche or another Democrat can win here in the future is another story, but the district might be competitive at some point in the next decade.

District  5 – teal

77% white; 17% black; 26% Obama; 73% McCain

The new 5th combines much of the current 5th and 7th districts in central and southwestern Louisiana, and should be a GOP stronghold under this plan.

District 6 – yellow

53% black; 42% white; 57% Obama; 41% McCain

This new district includes most of Baton Rouge and most areas bordering the state of Mississippi.  The current 6th is only 41% Obama/57% McCain and this plan flips those numbers around to 57% Obama/41% McCain.  The district is sufficiently Democratic and African-American to elect a black Democrat here.

So that’s my plan for Louisiana. I welcome your comments.

I am worried about the Colorado Governorship but the Democrats should still control one part of the State Legislature. They have large majorities in both houses. This calls for an incumbent protection plan even though I already expect one because the Democrats want to protect Betsy Markey and John Salazar. Salazar seems pretty safe but I decided to protect him anyway because eventually, the Republicans will find a strong challenger. The two other Republicans should have no problems under this plan. Here are the maps:

District 1 Diana De Gette (D) Blue

This district resembles Betsy Markey’s current district a bit because I extended it out into the heavily Republican prairie. Even though these counties are heavily Republican, they have barely any people. Since Denver is so Democratic, Republicans have no chance at this district. To satisfy minority politicians, this district is also minority majority. Obama probably won 69% of the vote here. Demographics are 8% Black, 38% Hispanic and 48% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 2 Jared Polis (D) Green

Okay, I did not make everyone stronger. I sent Polis’s district out to the Utah border to include Mesa County (Grand Junction) which McCain won by 20,000 votes. Polis should not worry because Boulder County (Boulder) went for Obama by 80,000 votes. Excluding the slice of Jefferson and Adams Counties, the vote results for the new 2nd district were Obama 174,567 and McCain 116,890. I estimate Obama won about 56% of the vote in the Jefferson and Adams County portions so Obama probably won 59% of the vote in the district.  Polis is a Boulder Liberal and the district should be Democratic enough to protect him. Demographics are 13% Hispanic and 81% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 3 John Salazar (D) Purple

I removed Grand Junction and nearby Republican counties in return for more ski resort counties in the Rocky Mountains like Eagle County. The Jefferson County part I added should not interrupt the district because it only has about 14% of the district’s population. Overall, Obama probably won 55% of the vote here. Salazar won here easily but now, I am sure he will win reelection here until he retires. Demographics are 22% Hispanic and 72% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 4 Betsy Markey (D) Red

Obama barely lost the old district because it had most of the heavily Republican counties to the east. I took those out and exchanged them with some Democratic territory in Adams County. The 4th district still has Republican Weld County but its votes should be offset by Adams County. Obama probably won 53-54% of the vote here, enough to protect Freshman Betsy Markey. Demographics are 19% Hispanic and 75% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

District 5 Doug Lamborn (R) Yellow

This district was already heavily Republican, even though Obama did much better here than Kerry. Those eastern counties needed to get into a district so I chose this one. Since it retains its base at Colorado Springs, Lamborn should be here indefinitely. McCain probably won 61% of the vote here. Demographics are 5% Black and 14% Hispanic. Status is Safe Republican.

District 6 Mike Coffman (R) Teal

Coffman gets a boost too under the new map. He loses small portions of Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties which lean Democratic. Since Douglas County is the fastest growing county in Colorado, the 6th district does not need much new territory to balance population. I also added heavily Republican Teller County. Overall, the district becomes more Republican. In the later part of the 2010’s, the district might become shaky as more Democrats move into the suburbs. For now, Coffman is safe unless he faces an extremely hard challenge. McCain probably won 55% of the vote. Status is Safe/Likely Republican.

District 7 Ed Perlmutter (D) Gray

I kept the district mostly the way it was. The changes I made were taking out Republican parts of Adams County, a bit of Jefferson and I added a touch of Denver. These changes should make the district even more Democratic, ensuring Perlmutter’s safety. I decided it was too risky to try to swap some territory with the 6th district to weaken Coffman. It would not be worth it because there will be Republican years. The Democratic incumbents need to be as safe as possible. Obama probably won 62% of the vote here. Demographics are 7% Black, 23% Hispanic and 62% White. Status is Safe Democrat.  

• AZ-Sen (pdf): John McCain is probably safe for re-election in 2010. PPP released the second half of their Arizona sample, and find McCain beating two strong opponents who seem to have no intention of running anyway: Sec. of Homeland Security and ex-Gov. Janet Napolitano (53-40) and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (57-30). He also leads Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman, who is at least a rumored candidate, 55-25. McCain only has 48/42 approvals, but with kind of a bipartisan spin: an unusually low 65% of Republicans approve, while an unusually high 32% of Democrats approve.

• IL-Sen: Facing some unrest on the right flank, the RNC’s Michael Steele has withdrawn sole support from Rep. Mark Kirk in the Illinois Senate GOP primary, according to the Chicago Observer. He’s back to a neutral position, which certainly counts as a victory for Patrick Hughes, who’s been gaining some momentum at coalescing the party’s right-wing. Considering how Kirk acted when Andy McKenna was going to run, is another temper tantrum in the offing? On the Dem side, Alexi Giannoulias got the endorsement of the SEIU, which led his new rival, former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, to “go there,” invoking the specter of Rod Blagojevich, who was elected via SEIU support.

• NH-Sen: This isn’t going at all according to plan for Kelly Ayotte (or the NRSC). Yet another random rich GOPer is showing up to scope out the Senate race, the third in a week. Today it’s Jim Bender, an investor who used to be the CEO of Logicraft in the 1990s.

• OH-Sen: Everyone forgets about wealthy auto dealer Tom Ganley in the GOP primary in Ohio against establishment pick Rob Portman, probably because he doesn’t have a built-in constituency. Looks like he’s trying to hook up with the teabaggers as a result, positioning himself as a populist alternative to the free-trading Portman. Ganley is also getting some help from a Republican insider: an endorsement from Bay Buchanan (sister of Pat), pleased by Ganley’s anti-immigrant rhetoric.

• WV-Sen: Looks like Robert Byrd’s stay in the hospital was a lot shorter than his stint this spring; he was released today.

• GA-Gov: Strategic Vision looks at the primary fields in the Georgia governor’s race, and finds not much has changed since last time. For the Dems, ex-Gov. Roy Barnes is at 45%, with Thurbert Baker at 30, David Poythress at 5, and Dubose Porter at 2. (It was 45-29 last month.) For the GOP, Insurance Comm. John Oxendine leads at 38, with Karen Handel at 15, Nathan Deal at 10, and four other guys in single digits. (Oxendine was at 39 last month, although Deal was in 2nd last month at 13, so maybe he took a minor hit from that corruption probe.) No head-to-heads yet, unfortunately.

• MI-Gov: Here’s another poll of a potentially exciting gubernatorial race, but primaries only. An Inside Michigan Politics finds a tight GOP primary, with AG Mike Cox in the lead at 27, followed by Rep. Pete Hoekstra at 23 and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard at 15 (with businessman Rick Snyder and state Sen. Tom George each at 2). Lt. Gov. John Cherry is at 40 in the Dem primary with only light opposition from state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (9) and former state Rep. John Freeman (8). A March poll from the same pollster had Cox at 17 and Hoekstra at 15 (but both losing to Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, who isn’t running).

• NJ-Gov: Two very different pictures from partisan pollsters of the New Jersey governor’s race out there. First comes one from Democracy Corps, who have the race as close as anyone has had it since early spring: Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine and Chris Daggett 40-39-11, and Christie has net negative favorables for the first time, at 32/34. (Their poll two weeks ago had Christie up 41-38-10.) The other is Strategic Vision, who see Christie up 46-38-8. Still an improvement from their last poll in July: 53-38-5… like most pollsters, they see Corzine essentially unable to move up, but succeeding in dragging Christie’s numbers down. One more bucket of mud for Corzine to throw at Christie arrived yesterday: news that Christie owned stock in Cendant Corp. at the same time as he was investigating them through the US Attorney’s office.

• NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Marist has a poll out that finds New Yorkers thinking that Barack Obama should butt out of New York governor’s race, by a 62-27 margin. Nevertheless, only 25% think David Paterson should run next year (63% say no); they just want him to arrive at that decision on his own. While the poll doesn’t contain gubernatorial matchups (not that we need any more of them), it does have some Senate numbers, confirming other local pollsters, finding the not-running Rudy Giuliani beating Kirsten Gillibrand 51-40 and the probably-not-running George Pataki beating Gillibrand 45-41.

Meanwhile, the NYT has a profile of a rather melancholy Paterson, saying “I didn’t sign up for this.” They also have a quote that could be seen as hopeful that he may still bail out on seeking another term: “if I got to a point where I thought that my candidacy was hurting my party, obviously it would be rather self-absorbed to go forward.” (Unless he’s made peace with just being self-absorbed.) If you’re wondering what’s taking him so long to make a decision, though, Josh Goodman has a nice pithy summary of the decisionmaking process, not just for Paterson, but all the race’s players:

Paterson thinks he can beat Lazio, but not Giuliani, so he doesn’t want to decide whether he’s running until Giuliani makes up his mind. Giuliani thinks he can beat Paterson, but not Cuomo, so he doesn’t want to decide whether he’s running until Cuomo makes up his mind. Cuomo thinks he can beat anyone, but doesn’t want the messiness of a primary battle, so he doesn’t want to decide whether he’s running until Paterson makes up his mind.

• VA-Gov: It looked briefly like ex-Gov. Doug Wilder might endorse Creigh Deeds after all, but today he backed down and said he won’t endorse. Wilder also leveled some criticism at Deeds for proposing tax increases to fix northern Virginia’s increasingly dire transportation problems. It’s a wtf? moment from the mercurial Wilder, whose endorsement would do a lot to move African-American turnout for Deeds, where he hasn’t generated much excitement yet.

• MO-04: No surprise here, but state Sen. Bill Stouffer made it official that he’ll be taking on 17-term Dem incumbent Ike Skelton in the dark-red 4th. Christian Right former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler is already in the race; Stouffer, however, seems to be working more of a fiscal discipline angle.

• PA-07: While state Rep. Bryan Lentz seems to have the inside track on the Dem nomination (despite no formal announcement), another Democrat is getting in the race: Teresa Touey, a political consultant who has worked for Joe Sestak and Ted Kennedy. One problem for her, though: although she is a native of the 7th, she’s been living in Massachusetts since the early 1990s.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac finds mayoral results in line with just about everybody else: incumbent Michael Bloomberg leads Dem comptroller William Thompson 52-36, with Conservative Party candidate Stephen Christopher pulling in 2.

• Redistricting: Roll Call has a detailed piece on how the parties are ramping up financially for the post-2010 redistricting fights. A new 501(c)(4), euphemistically titled Making America’s Promise Secure, with Newt Gingrich and Trent Lott among its founders, will be coordinating the effort (since campaign reform passed since 2002 prevents the RNC from using soft money to spearhead the effort now). The DCCC’s counterpart is the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, although a 527, the equally euphemistic Foundation for the Future, looks like it’ll do the financial heavy lifting.

Using Dave’s Application, I have drawn a redistricting plan for the Maryland legislature.  The legislature is overwhelmingly Democratic (33 out of 47 Senators and 104 out of 141 Delegates), but because of population shifts since the last census, several Democratic seats may be at risk in the next round of redistricting.  

Under the plan drawn in this diary, all Democratic seats are preserved and/or strengthened.  Different things can happen in elections, but, in the most likely scenario, the new lines will add 3 or 4 Democratic Senators (Districts 9, 31, 37, and perhaps District 3 – if Alex Mooney survives the 2010 election) and between 11 and 14 Democratic Delegates (discussed later in the diary).   (Yes, at that point the Democratic presence in the Maryland Legislature would approach that found today in the Massachusetts Legislature ! … well, maybe not quite that high, but in reality within 10 points of Massachusetts.)  The new plan is also likely to add several African-American representatives, and possibly a new Hispanic member.

The new districts are also very compact and correspond to county lines and communities — even more so than the current map !  The links below are maps of the current districts to compare:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L…

Under this proposed map, districts will cross county lines only when it’s necessary to preserve equal population and/or when necessary to preserve or strengthen minority-majority districts or minority-influenced districts.  Even though Courts gave great leeway to the Governor in drawing Congressional seats last time, they were much more strict when it came to drawing state legislative seats.  In effect, Gov. Glendening’s plan was ripped up and the Courts drew the existing plan.  

The new plan I drew allows for population deviations of only 1,000 persons or less (much stricter than the existing map which I believe allowed for up to around plus/minus 5,000 persons).  Most new districts are made where there’s one Senator and three Delegates; the only exceptions are more rural, multi-county districts as well as break-ups of districts into Delegate sub-districts in order to preserve or encourage minority-population representation.  

Each district will contain approximately 120,000 persons.  Sub-districts will contain 40,000 persons if designed for one Delegate, and 80,000 if designed for two Delegates.  The only major instance of a district completely “re-locating” from one part of the state to another is District 46.  Relative population decline/lack of growth in the city of Baltimore will necessitate the loss of one district there.  No. 46 is the perfect candidate, as the other five districts are all minority-majority and have to be preserved under the VRA.  The new District 46 will straddle the Baltimore Co./Harford Co. line (Harford Co. has been one of the fastest growing parts of the state) but has been designed to be a Democratic district.  

MAPS:

DISCUSSION OF DISTRICTS:

District 1 – Western Maryland

New district: 93% white; 32% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

The only real change here is to divide into sub-districts a little differently from the current map:

1A – Garrett County, part of Allegany; 27% Obama (same as current district)

1B – Frostburg and Cumberland; 41% Obama (current district 34% Obama)

1C – parts of Allegany and Washington Counties; 31% Obama (current district 36% Obama)

I am really not sure why the sub-districts are currently drawn as they are.  This re-drawing should shore up the one Democratic representative in this whole district, Kevin Kelly of 1B; his redrawn district will now include most of Cumberland.  It is interesting to note that 1B is one of only two districts/sub-districts in the state where John Kerry performed better than Obama (the other is District 6).

District 2 – Washington County

New district: 82% white; 11% black; 45% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

No major changes here except to reconfigure the sub-districts.  Instead of three sub-districts, the new plan has only two:

2A – Hagerstown and surrounding precincts; two Delegates; 49% Obama

2B – more rural remainder of District 2; one Delegate; 36% Obama

OK … this may be a slightly risky move (actually, the only really risky thing I do in this entire re-map).  2A will now combine the more Democratic Hagerstown with the more Republican precincts that immediately surround it.  The wager is that two Democrats can be elected in a 49% Obama district; the risk is that two Republicans can as well, causing the loss of one Democratic Delegate.  Perhaps the current plan can be basically preserved instead — where the sub-district corresponding almost exactly to the City of Hagerstown (55% Obama) is designed to elect the one Democrat, while the other two sub-districts continue to elect the GOP ?

Bottom line for District 2: Possible addition of one Democratic Delegate.

District 3 – City of Frederick and southern Frederick County

New district: 70% white; 13% black; 56% Obama (current district 54% Obama)

The major change here is to get rid of the sub-districts.  A district that is 56% Obama (and becoming more Democratic as time goes on as more people from outside Frederick Co. stream in) should be able to elect three Democratic Delegates, instead of the current two in 3A (City of Frederick) and the Republican-turned-Independent in 3B (southern Frederick Co.).  Right-wing GOP Senator Alex Mooney should probably be on the way out in elections next year (he won in 2006 with only 51.9% of the vote, and this district has experienced an influx of less conservative people moving in since then); the increase in the Democratic percentage (from 54% to 56% Obama) should help also once the new lines are in place in 2012.

Bottom line for District 3: Probable addition of Democratic Senator (if the incumbent survives 2010) and one Democratic Delegate.

District 4 – Frederick County, parts of Washington and Carroll Counties

New district: 90% white; 38% Obama (current district 37% Obama)

The sub-districts are eliminated and the new District 4 will now be confined mostly to Frederick County (previously about one-third of the district was in Carroll Co.)   The only areas outside the county (necessary to preserve equal population of each district) will be Smithsburg in Washington Co. and Mt. Airy which straddles the Carroll Co./Frederick Co. line.  The GOP is expected to dominate here.

District 5 – Carroll County

New district: 92% white; 32% Obama (current district 33% Obama)

Like with District 4, the sub-districts are eliminated and the district will now be completely confined to Carroll County, instead of stretching out into northern Baltimore County.  GOP stronghold.

District 6 – Dundalk, Sparrows Point, east Baltimore

New district: 72% white; 21% black; 54% Obama (current district 45% Obama)

This area is a traditional blue-collar Democratic stronghold that has shifted to the right over the decades (your quintessential Reagan Democrat country).  The current District 6 is the only full district in the state of Maryland (out of 47) where John Kerry performed better than Obama.  Democrats still win here locally, but in order to make the district safer for the future, the Democratic percentage is increased substantially.  This is done in tandem with combining parts of east Baltimore City with the Baltimore County portion of the district.  

It should be noted that the break-down here is almost exactly such that the Baltimore City portion could be made into a sub-district electing one Delegate, while the Baltimore Co. part could be a two-Delegate sub-district.  However, such a move might be politically risky.  The Baltimore Co. part voted only 42% Obama and could realistically elect two Republicans at some point in the future if made into a sub-district.  The Baltimore City part is plurality African-American (47% black; 44% white) and voted 83% Obama, but it probably contains almost as many registered white Democrats as black Democrats due to historical factors, so an African-American Delegate would not by any means be assured.  Therefore, two good reasons to keep the new District 6 without sub-districts.

District 7 – northern Baltimore County, part of Harford County

New district: 88% white; 35% Obama (current district 39% Obama)

The new district combines most current areas of the district in Baltimore and Harford Counties with territory in northern-most Baltimore Co. which was previously part of District 5.  The district becomes even more Republican than the current form.

District 8 – Parkville, Carney, Overlea, Rosedale, White Marsh

New district: 72% white; 16% black; 52% Obama (current district 48% Obama)

The current district is represented by a Democratic Senator, two Democratic Delegates and one Republican Delegate.  The Republican won by a smidge last time, and the increase in the Democratic percentage (48% Obama to 52% Obama) should help.

Bottom line for District 8: Probable addition of one Democratic Delegate.

District 9 – Howard County (Ellicott City, west Columbia)

New district: 65% white; 15% black; 13% Asian; 58% Obama (current district 43% Obama)

The new District 9 is another good example of how we can make a district more compact, yet more Democratic at the same time.  The current district stretches across Howard and Carroll Counties and is quite Republican.  The new district is confined entirely to Howard Co. and is a lot more Democratic.  (It should be noted that the detachment of the western part of Columbia from District 12 does not hurt that district at all, as explained

later).

Bottom line for District 9: Probable addition of Democratic Senator and three Democratic Delegates.

District 10 – parts of Baltimore Co. (Milford Mill, Lochearn, Randallstown) and Carroll Co. (Sykesville, Eldersburg)

New district: 51% black; 41% white; 67% Obama (current district 87% Obama)

The new district stretches along the Liberty Road corridor from just outside the Baltimore City line into Carroll County.  The district is assured of continuing to elect an all African-American Democratic delegation as approximately 70-75% of the Democratic primary vote here is black, and the district overall is about two-thirds Democratic.

District 11 – northwestern Baltimore County

New district: 59% white; 30% black; 65% Obama (current district 66% Obama)

Remains solidly Democratic.  I have divided the new district into two sub-districts:

11A – two-Delegate district; Reisterstown, Owings Mills, Mays Chapel; 72% white; 15% black; 56% Obama

11B – one-Delegate district; parts of Randallstown and Pikesville; 58% black; 33% white; 84% Obama

The creation of sub-district 11B should add one African-American to the state’s delegation.  In the meantime, because of the way the lines are drawn, one of the current three Delegates here could run in the new District 42 which now will include a substantial part of Pikesville.  The 56% Obama percentage in 11A should not be a concern, as this is a safe Democratic district, particularly on the local level.  (John Kerry actually did better than Obama in several precincts of the new 11A, so Obama’s 56% percentage is not some sort of Democratic “ceiling” for the area, as it would be in other districts.)

Bottom line for District 11: Probable addition of African-American Delegate.

District 12 – southwestern Baltimore County; eastern Howard County

New district: 63% white; 24% black; 59% Obama (current district 58% Obama)

The new district covers much of the same area as the current district.  The major exception is that a part of Columbia (sub-district 12B) is taken out.  However, a new sub-district 12B (also with one Delegate) is created.  The new 12B encompasses most of Woodlawn and is majority black, and its creation is likely to add another African-American to the state’s delegation.  Here’s more numbers:

12A – two-Delegates; Catonsville, Elkridge; 77% white; 10% black; 50% Obama (current 12A is also 50% Obama)

12B – one-Delegate; Woodlawn; 53% black; 35% white; 81% Obama

Bottom line for District 12: Probable addition of African-American Delegate.

District 13 – Howard County (east Columbia, Savage, North Laurel)

New district: 60% white; 20% black; 10% Asian; 63% Obama (current district 65% Obama)

This district stays very similar to the current configuration.  District 13 was represented in the state Senate by a Republican, Sandy Schrader, prior to the 2006 election (even when the three Delegates were all Democrats).  Schrader won in 2002 with 50.95% of the vote, but received only 43.8% in her re-election attempt in 2006. This district has definitely moved in the Democratic direction over the years, and the slight decline in Democratic performance here under the proposed lines (from 65% Obama to 63% Obama) will still leave this a safe Democratic seat.

Districts 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 39 – Montgomery County

We next move to Montgomery County, where the district lines change very, very little under my map. The all-Democratic delegation here (8 Senators and 24 Delegates) is something I am very proud of (I live in Silver Spring).  I attempted to create sub-districts here which could be designed to elect minority representatives, but my efforts were futile, as the minority population is very diverse and scattered throughout the county.  But no tears lost … Even under the current lines, Montgomery is likely to elect a very multi-ethnic delegation — in fact, it already does so, with black, Hispanic, and Asian (east Asian, south Asian, as well as Middle Eastern-origin) representatives … and several openly gay representatives also.

New District 14: Burtonsville, Olney, Brookeville, Laytonsville, Damascus

59% white; 20% black; 12% Asian; 65% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

New District 15: Potomac, Poolesville, Clarksburg

67% white; 14% Asian; 65% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

New District 16: Bethesda, Garrett Park

70% white; 11% Asian; 11% Hispanic; 73% Obama (current district 74% Obama)

New District 17: Rockville, Gaithersburg

48% white; 20% Hispanic; 16% Asian; 12% black (quite diverse !); 71% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

New District 18: Wheaton, Kensington, Chevy Chase

51% white; 19% Hispanic; 18% black; 76% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

New District 19: Aspen Hill, Leisure World, Derwood

49% white; 18% black; 16% Hispanic; 13% Asian (another very diverse district); 68% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

New District 20: Silver Spring, Takoma Park, White Oak

31% white; 31% black; 23% Hispanic; 12% Asian (by far, the most ethnically diverse district in Maryland); what’s not diverse is political preference: 85% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district); this district is where I live, btw !

It should be noted that under this map, District 20 extends into two precincts in Prince George’s County, in order to meet equal population standards; however, the new districts may be designed in such a way where all eight Montgomery County seats are confined exclusively to the county (I’m using a deviation of under 1,000 persons, while Courts in the past have used a considerably higher number; bottom line: those two PG Co. precincts may not need to be a part of District 20).

New District 39: Germantown, Montgomery Village, North Potomac

50% white; 18% Asian; 15% black; 12% Hispanic; 71% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

District 21 – northern Prince George’s County

New district: 47% white; 31% black; 10% Hispanic; 78% Obama (current district 75% Obama)

The new district is now completely contained within PG Co.  I just didn’t think that it made sense to have a district stretch from College Park all the way to Odenton in Anne Arundel County (as does the current District 21).  I also divided the new district into sub-districts in order to create a minority-opportunity seat centered on Laurel, which is relatively more African-American than other parts of District 21 (it should be noted, though, that the current district already elects a minority representative who lives in College Park, so perhaps a sub-district is unnecessary here ?).  The new numbers are:

21A – two Delegates; College Park, University Park, Beltsville, part of Bowie; 54% white; 24% black; Obama 76%

21B – one Delegate; Laurel; 46% black, 33% white; 11% Hispanic; Obama 83%

District 22 – northern Prince George’s County

New district: 50% black; 25% Hispanic; 16% white; 85% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

The new district is quite similar to the existing one.  Senator Paul Pinsky should have no trouble getting re-elected here.  Once he retires, however, this district is likely to elect an African-American Senator.  I have also divided this district into sub-districts.  Currently, two of the three Delegates here are white, even though the current district’s ethnic composition is similar to the proposed district.  Creating sub-districts here may screw up that dynamic; however, I do so anyways in order to create a Hispanic-opportunity sub-district (Hispanics seem to be vastly under-represented in the state legislature):

22A – two Delegates; Greenbelt, New Carrolton, Landover Hills; 57% black; 18% Hispanic; 16% white

22B – one Delegate; Hyattsville; Riverdale; 39% Hispanic; 38% black; 16% white; the new 22B is barely Hispanic plurality; however, the Hispanic population is still growing here, so this district may become an opportunity district for the population.

Bottom line for District 22: Possible addition of a Hispanic Delegate.

District 23 – parts of Prince George’s Co. (Largo/Kettering, Mitchelville, Bowie) and Anne Arundel Co. (Crofton, Gambrills, Fort Meade)

New district: 45% black; 44% white; 74% Obama (current district 81% Obama)

Since this re-map made District 21 confined to PG Co., the new District 23 has to play the opposite role and reach outside PG, into Anne Arundel County.  I think this proposed map is more logical — it makes much more sense to have Bowie and Crofton in the same district than to have College Park and Odenton in the same district.  

The new district becomes plurality black, and most registered Democrats here are black (as a good part of the white population in Anne Arundel is Republican).  Nevertheless, the numbers are not overwhelming either way, and should not hurt the currently racially-diverse delegation.  I decided to drop the sub-districts however, as they seem unnecessary under the circumstances, and could only hurt Democratic chances if, for instance, a part of the Anne Arundel Co. portion of the district was made into a sub-district.

Districts 24, 25, 26 – central and southern Prince George’s Co.

These three districts remain largely very similar to the current districts.

New District 24: Capitol Heights, Seat Pleasant, Suitland, Glenarden; 86% black; 98% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

New District 25: District Heights, Forestville, parts of Upper Marlboro; 78% black; 14% white; 95% Obama (current district 96% Obama)

New District 26: Oxon Hill, Temple Hills, Fort Washington; 80% black; 93% Obama (current district 94% Obama)

District 27 – Calvert County and southern Prince George’s Co.

New district: 67% white; 26% black; 57% Obama (current district 71% Obama)

The new district is more compact than the current District 27, now taking in all of Calvert County (Calvert has experienced some of the highest population growth in the state, and will now account for two-thirds of the new district).  The rest of the new district will be a Prince George’s Co.-based minority-majority sub-district.  Thus, the major change here is that sub-district 27A will now have one Delegate, instead of two, and 27B will have two instead of one.  

Senate Leader Mike Miller should be quite happy with the new lines, as his seat becomes more Calvert-based (his home) and it is less likely that he will be challenged in the Democratic primary by an African-American in the future.  

27A – one Delegate; southern Prince George’s County and several precincts in Calvert and Charles to preserve equal population; 52% black; 40% white; 81% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current sub-district)

27B – two Delegates; all of Calvert Co. except for northern-most area around Dunkirk; 79% white; 14% black; 47% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current sub-district)

Even though sub-district 27B remains at only 47% Obama, it should be noted that the current Delegate, Democrat Sue Kullen, won with 57% of the vote in 2006.  Anthony O’Donnell (from southern Calvert, currently in sub-district 29C) could also run here, but even if he were to win, his gain here would be effectively offset by his disappearance from District 29.

District 28 – Charles County

New district: 50% white; 39% black; 64% Obama (current district 63% Obama)

The lines here change only insofar that several precincts in the eastern part of the county are taken out to preserve equal population.  There’s a good chance that this district will become majority black over the next decade.

District 29 – St. Mary’s County, part of Charles Co.

New district: 75% white; 17% black; 45% Obama (current district 44% Obama)

The new district is more compact than the current one, and all of St. Mary’s County will now be in one district.  The sub-districts are eliminated, and I’m hopefully optimistic  that all three Delegates will be Democrats (currently both Delegates in 29A and 29B, which are areas almost entirely in St. Mary’s County, are Democrats elected with 65 and 64 percent of the vote; Republican Anthony O’Donnell won 29C — which straddles both St. Mary’s and Calvert Counties — with 60% but his sub-district becomes split in half between the new District 27 and the new District 29.)

District 30 – Annapolis and environs in Anne Arundel Co.

New district: 73% white; 16% black; 53% Obama (current district 52% Obama)

The lines here are tweaked just a bit in order to make the district more Democratic.  The current district is represented by a Democratic Senator and two out of three Delegates are also Democrats.  The lone Republican, Delegate Ron George, won by 53 votes last time (or one-tenth of a percentage point), and so the change from 52% Obama to 53% Obama may be helpful in the future — assuming George even makes it through 2010 under the current lines, which is less than assured.

Bottom line for District 30: Probable addition of one Democratic Delegate (if the sole Republican is not defeated by the time the new lines come into being).

District 31 – Glen Burnie, Brooklyn Park, Riviera Beach

New district: 75% white; 14% black; 48% Obama (current district 40% Obama)

The political composition of this Anne Arundel district changes significantly under this re-map.  Parts of Glen Burnie currently in District 32 are added (except for the homes of several District 32 incumbents which remain in the 32nd) while most of hyper-Republican Pasadena is detached.  (Under the new lines, most of Glen Burnie is now part of one district, instead of being split in half between Districts 31 and 32.)  The result is a district that goes from 40% Obama to 48% Obama.  

It is quite likely that all four Republican representatives will disappear under the new lines, and will be replaced by four Democrats.  The GOP Senator here, Bob Jones University graduate Bryan Simonaire, won last time with only 50.8% of the vote, and he lives in Pasadena, now outside the district.  The three GOP Delegates all won by relatively small margins also, and two of the three also live in Pasadena.  

The one Delegate whose home remains in the new 31st is Don Dwyer, a rabidly right-wing homophobe who makes Simonaire appear like a moderate in comparison (Dwyer is so right-wing that he has effectively taken himself out of the Republican caucus, as they are apparently not conservative enough for him, though he remains a Republican.)  Dwyer won re-election by 25 votes last time (even the current 58% McCain district had barely the stomach for him), and it’s far from assured that he will win in 2010.  If for some reason he makes it next year, the new lines and district composition will pose a very formidable obstacle for him in 2014.  

This area, btw, is traditionally quite Democratic, but parts contain many conservative Reagan Democrats.  In that light, the 48% Obama of the proposed District 31 should not be seen as a Democratic ceiling for the district; in a number of precincts in the area, including ones in Brooklyn Park and Riviera Beach, John Kerry performed better than Obama.  (Disclosure: I grew up in Brooklyn Park, and my mom still lives there, hence this long entry re. District 31 … that, and the fact that the odious Don Dwyer is still a representative there.)

(It should be noted that in drawing this district, I used new precinct lines for the map in the very southern end of this district, where it dips into a sliver of Severna Park — precincts no. 5-10 and 5-12 on Dave’s Application — which are now really four separate precincts, not just two.  The lines the Application uses are based on precincts as they existed in 2002 but in this particular area it made more sense to use the new lines to include a new African-American majority precinct into District 31 and exclude a very GOP new precinct nearby.  Incidentally, the current border between Congressional Districts 1 and 3 in that area makes use of the same new lines).

Bottom line for District 31: Probable addition of Democratic Senator and three Democratic Delegates.

District 32 – Linthicum, Severn, Odenton, Arbutus/Lansdowne

New district: 61% white; 25% black; 54% Obama (Obama percentage is same as in current district)

Like the current incarnation, the new district encompasses much of northwestern Anne Arundel County.  The district also crosses over into a part of Baltimore County, in order to maintain equal population.  The current all-Democratic delegation looks to be in good shape under the new lines.

District 33 – Pasadena/Lake Shore, Severna Park, Crownsville, Davidsonville

New district: 89% white; 37% Obama (current district 43% Obama)

The new District 33 combines the most Republican communities of Anne Arundel County into one district.  Geographically, it pretty much resembles the current district with Pasadena added.  The two current sub-districts are eliminated.  

I thought about having three separate sub-districts here – 1.) Pasadena, 2.) Severna Park/Crownsville, and 3.) southern remainder of the district.  Such an arrangement might perhaps lead to a local Democrat capturing one of the districts at some point (although it hasn’t happened in any of the current GOP districts which Democrats sub-divided last time in order to enhance the possibility of a Democrat capturing one of the sub-districts).  However, my original goal was to create sub-districts only for large, rural, multi-county districts (so that each county could have a voice in the Assembly) and/or for minority-majority or minority-opportunity districts.  Besides those exceptions, it wouldn’t be fair to have only Republican districts sub-divided and not the Democratic ones.

District 34 – parts of Harford and Cecil Counties

New district: 80% white; 12% black; 46% Obama (current district 48% Obama)

This district largely resembles the current 34th, except that the Edgewood and Joppatowne areas in southern Harford have been taken out in order to preserve equal population (this area has experienced a lot of population growth).  The new district becomes a little less Democratic, but the current political balance here should remain (GOP Senator, and three Democratic Delegates). Although the Harford Co. part would correspond almost perfectly to a one-Delegate sub-district, it is politically better to eliminate sub-districts here, as the more Democratic area in Harford will balance the more Republican two-thirds of the new district in Cecil County.

District 35 – Harford County

New district: 91% white; 30% Obama (current district 31% Obama)

Remains very similar to the current district which is a GOP stronghold.

District 36 – Eastern Shore

New district: 86% white; 40% Obama (current district 41% Obama)

The current district expands south and is sub-divided into three sub-districts — each corresponding closely to a county or set of counties:

36A – Cecil and Kent Counties (also includes one precinct in Queen Anne’s directly across from Chestertown in order to maintain equal population); 46% Obama; this sub-district could perhaps elect a Democrat, breaking the GOP stranglehold on District 36.

36B – most of Queen Anne’s County; 36% Obama

36C – Talbot and Dorchester Counties; 39% Obama

District 37 – Eastern Shore

New District: 61% white; 32% black; 52% Obama (current district 46% Obama)

Currently, three out of four representatives here are Republicans.  The re-map expands the current district northward and the sub-districts remain.  However, sub-district 37A will now have two Delegates, instead of one, and 37B will have one instead of two.  The lines forming the border between the new 36th and 37th don’t line up perfectly with county boundaries.  However, the goal here was to create a minority-influence district on the Shore.  Even though only about a third of the population of the new 37th is black, that population might have an effective voice in how the district is represented in Annapolis, through an alignment with white Democrats in the area — the borders intentionally include more “liberal” (relatively) white-majority  areas like Chestertown and Easton.

Here’s a break-down of the sub-districts:

37A – two Delegates; lower Eastern Shore: Salisbury, Princess Anne, Cambridge, Easton; 51% white; 41% black; 58% Obama; although on paper this district is majority white (barely), blacks constitute a majority of the Democratic primary vote here.  Thus, there’s a good chance the district can elect two African-American Delegates (increasing their representation on the Shore by one).

37B – one Delegate; most of Caroline County, part of Queen Anne’s and Chestertown (Kent Co.); 79% white; 13% black; 41% Obama; likely to elect a GOP Delegate.

Bottom line for District 37: Probable addition of Democratic Senator and one Democratic Delegate (there’s a good chance the Delegate will be African-American).

District 38 – lower Eastern Shore

New District: 81% white; 13% black; 40% Obama (current district 41% Obama)

The new 38th is quite similar to the current district.  The district here currently elects a GOP Senator and GOP Delegate in sub-district 38A, while 38B elects two Democrats, even though that area is even more Republican than 38A.  The two Democrats include one legislator from Salisbury and a former mayor of Ocean City, so personal popularity likely plays a part, especially in the case of the latter.

38A – includes parts of Somerset and Wicomico Counties (as does the current sub-district) but also expands east into Worcester Co.

38B – includes much of Worcester Co. and part of Wicomico around Salisbury.

District 39 – see earlier entry under Districts 14, 15, etc. (Montgomery County)

Districts 40, 41, 43, 44, 45 – Baltimore City

As I already discussed, due to stagnant population growth, Baltimore City has to lose one of its current districts, and the 46th is the only logical candidate.  (Also, as already discussed, the eastern-most part of the city will be combined with adjoining parts of Baltimore County into a new 6th District.)  The other five districts are reconfigured but still keep the basic shape and identity of their current incarnations:

New District 40: west-central Baltimore

64% black; 28% white; 89% Obama (current district 93% Obama)

New District 41: northwest Baltimore

64% black; 30% white; 84% Obama (current district 87% Obama)

New District 43: northeast Baltimore

63% black; 30% white; 90% Obama (current district 91% Obama)

New District 44: southwest and south Baltimore

63% black; 31% white; 86% Obama (current district 92% Obama)

New District 45: east-central Baltimore

63% black; 28% white; 86% Obama (current district 90% Obama)

District 42 – Towson, Timonium, Cockeysville, Pikesville

New District: 71% white; 18% black; 58% Obama (current district 53% Obama)

The current district is represented in the Senate by a Democrat.  However, two out of three Delegates are Republicans.  The new district expands into more Democratic areas, including Pikesville, and the Democratic percentage goes up, from 53% Obama to 58% Obama.  The increase should be enough to produce an all-Democratic delegation here (both Republican delegates won by small margins last time).  

Bottom line for District 42: Probable addition of two Democratic Delegates.

District 46 – parts of Baltimore Co. (Essex, Middle River) and Harford Co. (Edgewood, Joppatowne)

New District: 69% white; 22% black; 51% Obama

This district is a newly-created one to account for population growth in the area (and it replaces the old 46th which was based in Baltimore City).  It was initially surprising to me that you could create a new, compact district here that is at the same time quite Democratic.  I was afraid that the new district would have to be a GOP stronghold, thus causing an automatic loss of a Democratic Senator and three Democratic Delegates.  But there is apparently a robust Democratic presence in this area; in fact, both the Baltimore Co. and Harford Co. parts of the new district voted for Obama ! (the Harford part by a larger margin though).  There are actually some very GOP precincts in the Baltimore Co. part of the district, but they seem to be outweighed by other very Democratic areas.

District 47 – northern Prince George’s County

New District: 52% black; 36% Hispanic; 93% Obama (current district 92% Obama)

The new 47th keeps mostly within the lines of the current district.  I have sub-divided the new District 47 into two sub-districts in order to provide the Hispanic community with a sub-district.  Perhaps this is completely unnecessary, as the district has already elected a Delegate who is Hispanic, even without a sub-district …  Nevertheless:

47A – two Delegates; Chillum; Mount Rainier, Brentwood, Bladensburg, Cheverly, Landover; 66% black; 22% Hispanic

47B – one Delegate; Langley Park; 63% Hispanic; 24% black; it’s interesting to note that this Hispanic-majority area voted over 90% for Obama.

So this is my plan for redistricting the Maryland Legislature.  I welcome your thoughts and comments.

Recently, I saw quite a few redistricting maps, especially on Maryland. Here is my perspective. Instead of playing it safe, I went all out for an 8-0 map. The Democrats are in control and may try for a map like this. I know what you are thinking; it will be too difficult for Democrats to hold. I feel that I definitely made each Democrat’s district safe enough for them without throwing the VRA down the drain. The Democrats have large majorities in the State Legislature and if they retain the Governorship, this map is realistic. Enough chatter, here are the maps.

District 1 Frank Kratovli (D) Blue

This district did go to the western shore to pick up population. Yet it picked up heavily Republican areas to keep out of the 2nd and 3rd districts. Now that Maryland is trending Democratic, adding Republican areas to other districts will be offset by Democratic margins. This left me free to slip in Democratic Annapolis into Kratovli’s district as well as a hunk of Prince George’s County. These changes raised the Black percentage from 11% to 24%. If a Republican could not win in a district that is 11% Black, watch him or her try to win in a district with Prince George’s County. Obama probably won 54% of the vote here. Demographics are 24% Black and 67% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

District 2 Dutch Ruppersburger (D) Green

His district is less gerrymandered but should be safe. I added some Republican areas of Baltimore and Harford Counties but I slipped in more of Baltimore City. These changes should make the district a little more Republican. Ruppersburger is a popular representative and should handle himself. Obama probably won 53%-54% of the vote here. Demographics are 22% Black and 69% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

District 3 John Sarbanes (D) Reddish Purple

Okay, I see the flaws. Yes, I know I took Sarbanes’s home out of the district. I had to because the district would be too convoluted if I kept it. I also know that Carroll County is heavily Republican. I included Democratic territory in Howard County which should offset Republican margins in Carroll County and more. For any more Republican areas, Baltimore City should offset their margins. Bartlett is Sarbanes is the son of longtime former Senator Paul Sarbanes (D). I do not see Sarbanes losing here anytime soon. Obama probably won 56% of the vote here. Demographics are 23% Black, 5% Asian and 65% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

District 4 Donna Edwards (D) Red

Her district extends into Republican Frederick County but Edwards should be content. The 4th district is VRA protected. Obama probably won 73% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% Black, 5% Asian, 9% Hispanic and 33% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 5 Steny Hoyer (D) Yellow

I took out northeastern Prince George’s County and pushed the district into Republican parts of Anne Arundel County. I only reduced the Black percentage by 1% and should probably get higher in the mid 2010’s because of Blacks moving into Prince George and Charles counties. Hoyer and is successor are safe. Obama probably won 60% of the vote here. Demographics are 29% Black and 62% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 6 Vacant Teal

No current representative lives here. Even though I put in some heavily Republican counties in western Maryland, I more than erased that margin by 60% of this district in heavily Democratic Montgomery County. I slipped in about 84,000 people in Prince George’s County just to ensure Democratic votes. That area gave Chris Van Hollen (D) his winning margin against Connie Morella (R) so it had to be in this district to ensure it will vote Democratic. Mark Shriver (D) might want to run in this district. It would be nice to have another Kennedy in Congress. Obama probably won 62% of the vote here. Demographics are 13% Black, 8% Asian, 14% Hispanic and 61% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 Elijah Cummings (D)

This district is BARELY protected the VRA. I tried to squeeze in as many Republican precincts as I could while keeping the Black percentage at 50% or above. This district used to go into Howard County but now takes in Republican suburbs in Baltimore, Carroll and Harford Counties. Since almost all the Baltimore precincts in the 7th voted around 90% for Obama, Cummings should be very safe. Obama probably won 67% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% Black and 43% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 8 Chris Van Hollen (D) vs. Roscoe Bartlett (R) Purple

Bartlett is 83 years old and about 63% of the 8th district is in Montgomery County, Van Hollen’s home base. Bartlett can campaign as a moderate but I see Montgomery County voters sticking with Van Hollen. With Bartlett out of the picture, Van Hollen should have an easy ride to reelection. Obama probably won 63% of the vote here. Demographics are 16% Black, 10% Asian, 13% Hispanic and 58% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat if Bartlett decides to run, Safe Democrat without Bartlett.

The primary goals of any partisan redistricting should be to, first, protect endangered incumbents; and, secondly, maximize your seats without spreading your votes too thin to risk losing seats in a wave election.  Of the Republican gerrymanders after 2000, the Michigan map (where the GOP legislature aimed for a 9-6 split) held up much better than Pennsylvania.

My map aims for a 13-5 split in normal years, and possibly a 14-4 split.  It shores up Bean, Foster, and Halverson.  It throws Mark Kirk and Jan Schakowsky together in the new CD-1, which Schakowsky would easily prevail; and Peter Roskam and Judy Biggert together in the new CD-11, which is designed to elect a Republican.  It creates a new district centered in northern Chicago and the northwest Cook suburbs that are heavily trending Democratic.  Lastly, Downstate it puts Aaron Schock’s congressional career in jeopardy by combining Peoria with Decatur, Champlain, and Bloomington while trading Republican farm territory with Shimkus and Johnson.

Oh, and one more thing, I renumbered all the districts in logical order – it doesn’t make much sense to me that Jerry Costello’s current district is the #12 while #1-11 and the 13th are all in Chicago or Suburban Chicago.  

CD-1 (Schakowsky vs. Kirk) – Dem favored (57% white, 13% black, 7% asian, 19% hispanic)

Schakowksy’s currently configured #9, along with Quigley’s #5 are both too packed with Democrats.  Instead of having a PVI of D+20 and D+19 respectively, it is possible I believe to create four Chicago-North districts with only slightly lesser Dem PVIs.  This district extends along Lake Chicago from the lakefront wards of Chicago, north through Evanston, and New Trier Township, and then Lake County up to the Wisconsin border including Waukegan and Lake Zion.  

CD-2 (Bean) (69% white, 3% black, 12% asian, 13% hispanic)

By moving Schakowsky’s district north, I was able to draw Bean much closer into Chicago and into Chicago-trending suburbs.  Includes about 100k of Chicago itself, plus all of Niles, Northfield, and Palatine townships in Cook, plus more rural parts of Lake County.  Should be significantly more Democratic now.

CD-3 (Vacant) (69% white, 1% black, 11% asian, 16% hispanic

The third and fourth districts break up Quigley’s district into two parts and marry those parts with suburban townships in Cook and northern DuPage which are trending Democratic.  This district includes Elk Grove, Wheeling, and Maine townships, plus a fair amount of northern Chicago.  It should elect a Democrat.

CD-4 (Quigley) (65% white, 4% black, 9% asian, 19% hispanic)

Combines Democratic leaning northern DuPage townships (Bloomington and Addison, which both voted for John Kerry) and a small part of Milton with the rest of Quigley’s current district left over from drawing the third.

CD-5 (Davis) (52% black)

I decide to reorient how the Hispanic-majority district is hooked up to the Chicago lakefront instead of the Cook County border in order to dilute some suburban Republican votes.  Parts of Milton and all of York township in DuPage is added to the current district.

CD-6 (Gutierrez) (71% hispanic)

Little changes except how the two parts of the district are hooked up.  They now make a backwards C.  Still hideously gerrymandered.  By the time the next census comes around, it should become possible to create two separate Hispanic-majority districts in Chicago.

CD-7 (Lipinski) (63% white, 5% black, 1% asian, 28% hispanic)

Firmly anchored in Cook County and adds several left-over Hispanic precincts in the current #4 to bolster the Democratic nature of the district.  Possibly, Lipinski can be primaried if he still votes the way he does?

CD-8 (Rush) (52% black)

Extends out to Will County now to pick up Republican precincts in Lockport and Homer townships, same thing in Cook County (all of Lemont and Orland, most of Palos, and parts of Bremen and Worth, plus the south side of Chicago = a very good way to get rid of Republican precincts.

CD-9 (Jackson, Jr.) (52% black)

Adds parts of Will County (New Lenox, Manhattan, Frankfort and Green Garden townships) to currently existing district.  Exchanges parts of Monee Township with Halvorson to increase her district’s Democratic performance.

CD-10 (Halvorson) (58% white, 12% black, 3% asian, 23% hispanic)

Includes left-over parts of Will County not in CD-8 or 9 (which are significantly more Democratic) with Democratic-leaning Aurora and a tiny part of Kendall County to connect the two.  Should be safely Democratic now.

CD-11 (Roskam vs. Biggert) (71% white, 4% black, 9% asian, 13% hispanic)

Although it probably is possible to create several thin strands and eliminate every one of the remaining Chicago-area Republicans, it is safer I believe to leave one Republican-leaning district left.  The CD-11 is designed to be such a district.  It includes the left-over parts of DuPage not in the 4th or the 5th (Downers Grove, Lisle, Naperville, Winfield, Wayne, and parts of Milton (Wheaton) to include Roskam’s home), St. Charles and Dundee in Kane County, and Hanover and Barrington townships in Cook.

CD-12 (Foster) (74% white, 6% black, 2% asian, 14% hispanic)

All of LaSalle and DeKalb counties, most of Kane and Kendall, plus Rockford.  Should be safer for a Democrat now.

CD-13 (Manzullo)

One of three districts that pack Republican voters to ensure the election or reelection of Democrats in neighboring districts.  Rockford has been removed from the current district in exchange for all of McHenry and the far western rural townships of Lake.  District also now drops down to include Republican Lee and most of Bureau counties.

CD-14 (Hare)

Cleaned up the lines significantly by removing snake that went all the way to to Decatur.  District now includes all of Springfield and a few small rural counties to its north, along with some rural townships near Peoria.  Should still be safe for Hare or any generic Democrat with the dominance of Springfield and Rock Island.

CD-15 (Schock) (80% white, 10% black, 3% asian, 2% hispanic)

By straightening out the lines of Hare’s district, and with some clever trading of territory with Johnson, it opens the possibility to end Schock’s career before the Republicans groom him to take a leadership role.  Combines Peoria with Bloomington-Normal, Urbana-Champlain, and Decatur.  Furthermore, it does it in a way that doesn’t lead to serpentine appendages going everywhere.

CD-16 (Johnson)

The consequence of going after Schock means that Johnson gets quite possibly the most Republican district in Illinois.  Swaps Democratic-leaning Champlain and Urbana for Republican farm counties.

CD-17 (Shimkus)

The third and final district that packs Republicans.  It would have been nice to go after Shimkus too, and indeed, it would probably not be too difficult to draw Shimkus into a Madison-Springfield, Macoupin centered district that would be very tough for him to win re-election in.  But, many southern Illinois counties outside of Carbondale, Cairo, and Metro-East are trending very Republican and need to be placed somewhere.

CD-18 (Costello)

Adds Democratic-leaning Jersey, Calhoun, Macoupin, and most of Montgomery counties, Edwardsville of Madison country, to the currently Democratic areas of the district; swaps Republican-leaning Williamson, Franklin, and most of Union counties over to Shimkus’s district.

This is my third (and hopefully final) version of a redistricting plan for Maryland.  Thanks to Dave’s Redistricting application, the process was much easier this time for me, and I got a plan that virtually guarantees that 8 Democrats will be elected starting in 2012.  In each district, Obama received at least 58% of the vote (and McCain received under 40%; MD-1 is rounded off to 40.0, but it’s technically 39.98%).  The plan keeps the two majority African-American districts, and is also very incumbent-friendly (except for Bartlett ofcourse).  I normally make these diaries super long, but not this time.  Here’s the plan:

District 1

– Dark Blue

Obama 58.1%; McCain 40.0%

Combines Eastern Shore (57% of new district) with areas on the western shore in Harford and Baltimore Counties and Baltimore City.  The new district is 33% African-American. Interestingly, the Baltimore County part is 62% African-American, but the Baltimore City part is only plurality African-American (not majority); I intentionally took out white-majority, yet very Democratic areas out of MD-7 (Charles Village, Mt. Vernon, Bolton Hill, etc.) so as not to do too much damage to Cummings’ district, while at the same time making MD-1 much more Democratic.

District 2

– Green

Obama 58.5%; McCain 39.5%

The new district largely mirrors the current district in Baltimore and Harford Counties; a good part of Anne Arundel is also the same.  African-American areas in Baltimore City are taken out, but African-American areas in Prince George’s County are added, and the district remains politically almost exactly the same as before.

District 3

– Magenta

Obama 58.8%; McCain 39.3%

Like MD-2, the new MD-3 largely mirrors the current district.  In some ways, it actually is kind of similar to what MD-3 looked like prior to 2002 (especially in Baltimore City). It’s a very Baltimore-oriented district, except for the 18% of the district that’s now in Montgomery County.

District 4

– Red

Obama 73.6%; McCain 25.6%

Majority African-American (50%+); 6% Hispanic; 38% white.  Combines much of Prince George’s County (60% of new district) with mostly Republican areas in Anne Arundel County.

District 5

– Aqua Blue

Obama 61.5%; McCain 37.2%

New district is very, very similar to the current one.

District 6

– Gray

Obama 58.7%; McCain 39.4%

Combines parts of Montgomery County (57% of new district) with most of Frederick and Carroll Counties.  Good luck to Bartlett if he runs here.

District 7

– Yellow

Obama 66.1%; McCain 32.3%

Majority African-American (50%+); 44% white; African-Americans are around 70-75% of the Democratic primary vote.  Combines most of Baltimore City (56% of new district) with more Republican areas in Baltimore, Harford and Cecil Counties.  African-American areas which were put in MD-2 as part of the 2002 redistricting are now returned to MD-7.

District 8

– Violet

Obama 59.1%; McCain 39.1%

Combines parts of Montgomery County (60% of new district) with a part of Frederick County and all of western Maryland.

I should add that the new plan is indeed gerrymandered, but not any more so than the current plan.  Counties are split among districts, but again, it’s not any worse than currently.  I can likewise envision the plan being implemented from a legal point of view.  OK … that’s it; I said I would make it short.  Your thoughts ….

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

David asked me to do a quick example of how I do my redistricting, so I decided to use a relatively ‘easy’ state, Wisconsin, since it has townships. In the same way I wouldn’t drive a car or ride a bike without brakes (yes, fixie riders, the laws of physics hate you too), I don’t want to redistrict without having both sets of information.

Before you start, take a look at the state, and try to think how much detail you’re going to want to go into. I usually do townships/municipalities when available, but sometimes precincts. For Wisconsin, I’m going shooting for 7-1, by making the 1st and 6th more Democratic. Wisconsin doesn’t have precinct-level census data, so we’ll have to stick with townships. I really do want to split the city of Milwaukee though, so we’re going to do some estimating in just a little bit.

So now, here’s a quick overview of the process ahead:

1. Collect political and population data

2. Aggregate data together into one spreadsheet

3. Prepare a GIS shapefile (we’ll get into that) for the precinct and precinct-equivalents we’re going to use.

4. Import data from the spreadsheet into shapefile

5. Redistrict!

Follow me over the flip…

You’ll also need a few things:

a) GIS software (I use MapWindow GIS)

b) Microsoft Excel

c) An image editor program, like MS Paint, Photoshop or GIMP

d) A database file (.dbf) editor (Excel 2003 works for this, Excel 07 does not)

Let’s get started with the data.

Political data for Wisconsin is rather easy to do, everything comes in a nice spreadsheet. (Get it here.).

With that in hand, let’s get the population data. This will take a bit of work. Luckily, we have American FactFinder. Scroll down to “Census 2000 Redistricting Data” and select custom table. Let’s get the data for municipalities, so click “geo within geo”, select county subdivision within a state. Add all the county subdivisions of Wisconsin, and then hit next. Choose race, and then total population. Nothing in Wisconsin is VRA protected, so we don’t have to worry about racial breakdown. Now you’ll get a table, which conveniently, you can download by going to print/download. Now you have two nice spreadsheets.

Now that we have two spreadsheets, we have to combine them. This process is pretty arduous, but if you sort everything alphabetically, just copy and paste the two together and run a spot check. Make sure you watch out for any jurisdictions starting with “St.” or “Mc” – the Census Bureau aggregates them as ‘Saint’ and ‘Mac’, something Excel won’t do for you. With the political data, we can get to map making!

So first, we need a map template. Luckily for us, the Census Bureau keeps those on hand in its TIGER/LINE database. Since we’re only using municipalities, we can just download one file, 2000 County Subdivision. Of course, a shapefile is actually several different files, we’ll concern ourselves with two: the .shp, the shapefile itself; and the .dbf, the attribute file that we’ll be editing.

In my maps, I like to have both some political data and population data. Since we’re not worried about racial composition, I only add two sets of data to the attribute file: the population, and the Obama-McCain margin. Population is straightforward, obviously. I calculate the Obama-McCain margin, round up to the nearest percent, and then add 100 (MapWindow doesn’t like negative numbers too much), so theoretically, margins will range between 0 and 200.

Now pop open your MapWindow GIS, and click “Attribute Table Editor”. Under Edit, select “Add Field”. Call the new attribute whatever you want (I’d suggest something intuitive, like “Population” or “08 Margin”, but that’s just me). They’re both integers, and width of 10 is fine. Make sure you do this step before opening your .dbf.

Close out of MapWindow and open your .dbf so we can add our new data. Now we’re tempted to sort by County FIPS and township name (NAMELSAD00), but don’t just yet! Shapefiles require that the attribute file keep the EXACT order of attributes in their original order, so make sure you create a new column of numbers so you can get them back into their original places. Add the population and political info (again minding your Macs and your Saints). There are also ghost shapes called “County subdivision not defined”, which unsurprisingly occurs in counties like Kenosha, Racine, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Sheboygan, etc… Just mind those as well so all our created data gets assigned to the right shapes. [Alternatively, you can also use the VLOOKUP function to match if so you’re so inclined and don’t want to worry about order.]

Finally, we can get to map making. I like to map a few maps before any gerrymandering actually happens: one with political data, and one blank “precinct” map that you can color in your image editor to keep track of what you’ve done so far. In the legend sidebar, right-click on the name of your shapefile, and select “Properties”. Here you can edit a whole bunch of stuff on how you want your shapefile to look, from fill color to line width to transparency. Here, we want to create a coloring scheme. Click on coloring scheme, and you’ll get a pop-up menu. For field, select your margin field. Then, hit the plus sign to add colors. You’ll have to choose your colors. Under the values field, you can pick the values for which MapWindow will apply that color. You can do ranges, like “0 – 100” (this is why we wanted to avoid negative numbers). I use a 7-color scale, which is 13 in total (6 Dem, 6 Rep, and 1 for an exact tie).

With that in hand, you can take screenshots of your maps using Edit->Copy->Map. For finer resolutions, I usually zoom in a bit, take multiple screenshots, and piece them together in an image editor. Now you can get to gerrymandering. To keep running totals of population and political data, in my Excel sheet, I create a column for “District”, and have a series of “SUMIF” statements. This way, as I assign precincts to a district, we get a running total. In states that have VRA protected districts, we can also track the racial composition of a district as we go along. Use your blank precinct map to keep track on a visual basis of what you’ve assigned. MapWindow is helpful here, as its “Identify” function can tell you the name of precincts you’re looking at. If you’re feeling efficient, you can select multiple precincts (holding CTRL), and viewing them all using the ‘Attribute Table Editor’. You can copy all the info out of the Attribute Table into Excel.

Now, all that work comes for the fun part: gerrymander away!

Once you’re done, you can make maps of your finished plan. You can use the precinct map you’ve been using to keep a running track, or we can go back into MapWindow. You can add a new attribute for “District” into the .dbf, as we did before. (Add field in MapWindow first, then use your .dbf editor. Again, make sure the shapes are in the exact order as you found them in.) You can then assign a new coloring scheme based on district number. There are plenty of things you can do at this point, like labeling county names using the County Shapefile, or labeling municipality names (I don’t recommend this, as this will clutter your screen beyond recognition). From here, the choices are endless.

Now, I did actually do a map of Wisconsin. I went a few steps further and divided the city of Milwaukee into precincts. Unfortunately, Census didn’t keep track of those, so I pieced together the city block by block, all 7,394 of them. I won’t go into detail on that, but my plan does split the city between two districts, much like the pre-2000 map.

I’ll cut the usual fluff I put here, since I made you read this far, haven’t I?

Here’s the new map:

And here’s an inset of Milwaukee County, with municipalities labeled.

District by district, we have:

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
1	670,184	216,461	138,012	60.30%	38.45%
Kenosha	149,577	45,836	31,609	58.38%	40.26%
Milwaukee	305,170	109,975	56,748	65.12%	33.60%
Ozaukee	0,103	0,053	0,026	67.09%	32.91%
Racine	167,842	48,846	37,464	55.97%	42.93%
Walworth	47,492	11,751	12,165	48.48%	50.19%

As I said at the outset, I wanted to draw Paul Ryan out. Plus, keeping Kenosha and Racine attached to Janesville required going through Republican Walworth County, something that made gerrymandering quite difficult. Thus, the new 1st sheds Rock County and instead climbs further through Milwaukee, grabbing St. Francis, South Milwaukee, and Cudahy, through some lakefront precincts to downtown, up the East Side, through to the Democratic-leaning North Shore towns. Kenosha County remains in its entirety, while the nastier parts of northwest Racine County are stripped out and packed into the Republican 5th. Obama’s performance in this 45% Milwaukee, 25% Racine, and 22% Kenosha district is up to 60%, up 9%.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
2	670,284	274,235	133,998	66.36%	32.43%
Columbia	5,154	1,697	1,174	58.34%	40.36%
Dane	426,526	205,984	73,065	72.93%	25.87%
Dodge	54,056	13,367	13,699	48.77%	49.98%
Jefferson	74,021	21,448	21,096	49.80%	48.98%
Rock	64,260	19,313	11,644	61.52%	37.09%
Walworth	46,267	12,426	13,320	47.72%	51.15%

Gains have to come from somewhere, and Tammy Baldwin’s 2nd and Gwen Moore’s 4th are where the Democrats that are weakened somewhat to boost the 1st, 3rd, 6th, and 7th. However, this district is still centered on Dane County and Madison. Instead of looking south and north, this district looks east, taking in the entirety of Jefferson County and parts of Rock, Walworth, and Dodge County. Home to UW-M, UW-Whitewater, and Beloit College, this district featured Obama at 66.4%, a drop of 3%. 63.6% of this district’s residents still live in Dane County, so I’m not too concerned.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
3	670,351	214,972	151,028	57.89%	40.67%
Barron	44,963	12,078	10,457	52.89%	45.79%
Buffalo	13,804	3,949	2,923	56.45%	41.79%
Burnett	15,674	4,337	4,200	50.03%	48.45%
Crawford	17,243	4,987	2,830	62.70%	35.58%
Dunn	39,858	13,002	9,566	56.72%	41.73%
Grant	49,597	14,875	9,068	61.29%	37.36%
Green	33,647	11,502	6,730	62.23%	36.41%
Iowa	22,780	7,987	3,829	66.85%	32.05%
La Crosse	107,120	38,524	23,701	61.13%	37.61%
Lafayette	16,137	4,732	2,984	60.49%	38.14%
Pepin	7,213	2,102	1,616	55.74%	42.85%
Pierce	36,804	11,803	9,812	53.59%	44.55%
Polk	41,319	10,876	11,282	48.18%	49.98%
Richland	17,924	5,041	3,298	59.77%	39.10%
Rock	88,047	31,216	15,720	65.58%	33.02%
St. Croix	63,155	21,177	22,837	47.38%	51.09%
Trempealeau	27,010	8,321	4,808	62.59%	36.16%
Vernon	28,056	8,463	5,367	60.22%	38.19%

Ron Kind gets a small boost too, from the inclusion of half of Rock County in his district. Ron Kind sheds Eau Claire to boost the 7th, but picks up Green and Rock from Baldwin and Burnett and Polk from Obey. Kind’s base of La Crosse stays, as does plenty of the dairy country that Kind’s been representing for years. You’re indeed right that Paul Ryan’s house in Janesville gets put in here, but Kind is favored in a Kind-Ryan matchup in this 57.9% Obama district, up half a percent. Paul Ryan’s represented 9% of this district before. Ron Kind’s representing 67% of this district – I’ll let you decide.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
4	670,531	218,908	106,663	66.63%	32.47%
Milwaukee	634,994	209,844	92,697	68.75%	30.37%
Waukesha	35,537	9,064	13,966	38.91%	59.96%

As I’ve said, Gwen Moore bears the other brunt of redistricting. She keeps the western half on Milwaukee County – including the heart of Milwaukee and some suburbs, plus Menomonee Falls in Waukesha. Not to fear though, Obama still got 66.63% here, a drop of about 9%. Still, in this 95% Milwaukee, 5% Waukesha district, a Democrat has the clear advantage.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
5	670,746	152,723	260,690	36.57%	62.43%
Columbia	1,983	0,328	0,747	30.04%	68.41%
Dodge	31,841	5,816	9,316	37.93%	60.76%
Fond du Lac	40,923	9,025	13,722	39.17%	59.55%
Green Lake	19,105	4,000	5,393	42.01%	56.64%
Ozaukee	82,214	20,526	32,146	38.59%	60.44%
Racine	20,989	4,562	8,490	34.61%	64.40%
Sheboygan	25,362	4,897	9,913	32.61%	66.02%
Washington	117,493	25,719	47,729	34.63%	64.27%
Waukesha	325,230	76,275	131,186	36.45%	62.69%
Winnebago	5,606	1,575	2,048	42.92%	55.80%

Sensenbrenner gets a boost too, as all the Republican votes of the Milwaukee suburbs and the Fox Valley get packed here. The trifecta of Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha counties are brutal for any Democrat (let’s not forget that Bush had a margin coming out of Greater Milwaukee!). Meanwhile, the North Shore of Milwaukee is removed – those were Democratic votes thrown in for no good reason. Throw in the unpalatable parts of Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, and Dodge County, and you’ve got this 37% Obama district.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
6	670,599	195,883	157,909	54.60%	44.02%
Adams	18,643	5,806	3,974	58.36%	39.95%
Calumet	40,631	13,295	12,722	50.31%	48.15%
Columbia	45,331	14,636	10,272	58.09%	40.77%
Fond du Lac	56,373	14,438	14,442	49.47%	49.48%
Jackson	19,100	5,572	3,552	60.24%	38.40%
Juneau	24,316	6,186	5,148	53.80%	44.77%
Manitowoc	82,887	22,428	19,234	53.00%	45.45%
Marquette	15,832	4,068	3,654	51.92%	46.64%
Monroe	40,899	10,198	8,666	53.33%	45.32%
Sauk	55,225	18,617	11,562	60.92%	37.84%
Sheboygan	87,284	25,498	20,888	54.30%	44.48%
Waushara	23,154	5,868	5,770	49.64%	48.82%
Winnebago	151,157	46,592	35,898	55.65%	42.88%
Wood	9,767	2,681	2,127	54.81%	43.49%

The 6th would be the elusive seventh Democratic district in the state, and I had to reach for this one. There was potential in the old 6th, but just need to be developed further. As a result, instead of Republican leaning Dodge County, this district goes farther west and southwest, grabbing Columbia and parts of Baraboo from the 2nd, and some more counties from the 3rd. It sheds the southern half (read: Republican half) of Sheboygan, all of Fond du Lac outside of a few towns and Fond du Lac proper, and Green Lake County. What we get is a district that Obama got 54.6% in, winning each county part except Fond du Lac, which he lost by 4 votes. This district won’t necessarily elect a Democrat – the Fox Valley isn’t exactly a Democratic stronghold, but it’s certainly more likely this way.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
7	670,602	207,247	150,865	56.98%	41.48%
Ashland	16,866	5,818	2,634	68.01%	30.79%
Bayfield	15,013	5,972	3,365	63.22%	35.62%
Chippewa	55,195	16,239	13,492	53.82%	44.72%
Clark	33,557	7,454	6,383	52.76%	45.18%
Douglas	43,287	15,830	7,835	65.93%	32.63%
Eau Claire	93,142	33,146	20,959	60.38%	38.18%
Iron	6,861	1,914	1,464	55.83%	42.71%
Langlade	20,740	5,182	5,081	49.92%	48.95%
Lincoln	29,641	8,424	6,519	55.40%	42.87%
Marathon	125,834	36,367	30,345	53.65%	44.77%
Oneida	12,802	4,029	3,913	50.07%	48.63%
Portage	67,182	24,817	13,810	63.15%	35.14%
Price	15,822	4,559	3,461	55.76%	42.33%
Rusk	15,347	3,855	3,253	53.14%	44.84%
Sawyer	16,196	4,765	4,199	52.52%	46.29%
Taylor	19,680	4,563	4,586	48.94%	49.19%
Vilas	1,613	0,591	0,809	41.68%	57.05%
Washburn	16,036	4,693	4,303	51.56%	47.28%
Wood	65,788	19,029	14,454	55.89%	42.45%

Obey’s district gets a boost too. Dave doesn’t really need the help, but should he retire, nothing should be up to chance. Not too much changes – 81% of the district is a carryover from the current 7th, but the Minneapolis exurbs are shed in exchange for Eau Claire. Obama got 57% here, an improvement of 1%.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
8	670,378	196,782	163,228	53.95%	44.75%
Brown	226,778	67,269	55,854	54.02%	44.85%
Door	27,961	10,142	7,112	58.14%	40.77%
Florence	5,088	1,134	1,512	42.33%	56.44%
Forest	10,024	2,673	1,963	57.13%	41.95%
Kewaunee	20,187	5,902	4,711	54.81%	43.75%
Marinette	43,384	11,195	9,726	52.77%	45.84%
Menominee	4,562	1,257	0,185	86.81%	12.78%
Oconto	35,634	9,927	8,755	52.42%	46.23%
Oneida	23,974	7,878	5,717	57.00%	41.36%
Outagamie	160,971	50,294	39,677	55.04%	43.42%
Shawano	40,664	10,259	9,538	51.14%	47.55%
Vilas	19,420	5,900	6,246	47.97%	50.78%
Waupaca	51,731	12,952	12,232	50.85%	48.02%

Lastly, we have the 8th, centered still on Green Bay and Appleton. Intentionally, I didn’t tweak too much since Steve Kagen seems to be getting slowly entrenched. 96.5% of the district is the same as the old 8th, including Kagen’s base in Outagamie County. With some rearranging of precincts in Oneida and Vilas counties moves the balance 0.4% to the left, to 53.9% Obama.

• CO-Sen: The NRSC got its sort-of-top-tier challenger to Michael Bennet in the Colorado Senate race: former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton filed to form an exploratory committee and launched her campaign website, suggesting that the exploratory period will be a brief one. Norton’s never been elected on her own (just while joined to popular Gov. Bill Owens), but, unlike the rest of the GOP field, she’s at least known statewide.

• CT-Sen, AR-Sen: Chris Dodd finally made his decision about which Senate committee to chair, and he opted to return to Banking, instead of continuing at HELP where he shepherded through health care reform legislation in Ted Kennedy’s absence. He still has a lot on his plate; he’ll be focusing on bolstering financial services regulations and creating a new banking consumer protection agency (all stuff that would seem less likely to happen if Tim Johnson took over Banking). The WaPo says that all signs point to Tom Harkin of Iowa, #2 on HELP, ditching his coveted Agriculture chair to take over HELP. This means the Agriculture chair is likely to fall to Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas (bypassing a few other more senior Senators with better chairs), who, while not from a big farm state, is facing a difficult re-election and will benefit from the profile and money that come from a chair.

• LA-Sen: The Charlie Melancon campaign released an internal poll taken by Anzalone Liszt that’s getting a little stale (taken in mid-May, long before Melancon announced), but that shows Melancon in striking distance. The head-to-head has David Vitter beating Melancon 47-37 (and Melancon winning the bogus “after hearing positive info” vote 49-41). The good news is that Vitter’s re-elect number is down to 39%, with 45% preferring someone new. Melancon has 35/13 favorables.

• TX-Sen: Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst sent a letter to supporters that he’s running for re-election in 2010. While he may be the initial odds-on favorite to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Senate, I wouldn’t take this to mean he’s not running in the Senate special election — since he doesn’t need to give up his seat to run and he’d probably like to keep being Lt. Gov. if he loses the election, and there’s also still a possibility that KBH doesn’t resign after all, if she senses the gubernatorial primary heading south on her. (H/t DTM,B!)

• AK-Gov: No surprise here, but Democratic former state House minority leader and 2008 House candidate Ethan Berkowitz filed his candidacy papers today. He’ll likely face off against Sean Parnell, who inherited the office after Sarah Palin’s re$ignation, but first he’ll need to survive a primary against state Sen. Hollis French and Bob Poe. (Parnell will also need to survive a primary against state Rep. John Harris.)

• MA-Gov: Tim Cahill picked a strange day to make his announcement, on a day when everyone is fixated on the Massachusetts Senate race instead, but today he made official what has long been suspected: he’s running for Governor. The Dem-turned-Independent state Treasurer has a $3 million warchest, giving him a big edge over incumbent Dem Deval Patrick, who has $464K (of course, if Christy Mihos wins the GOP primary, he can put all his expenses on his own tab). Polls that have included Cahill have shown him running neck-and-neck with Patrick, although Cahill is running against tradition — there has apparently never been an Independent elected to statewide office in Massachusetts.

• MN-Gov: I’ve completely lost track of how many people are now running for Minnesota Governor — let’s just say it’s a number somewhere between 10 and 800 — but one more guy got in the race on Labor Day: state Rep. Tom Rukavina, for the DFL. Rukavina is from the town of Virginia in the rural but very pro-union Iron Range.

• OR-Gov: While the Dem side of the Oregon Governor’s race is narrowing, the GOP side keeps growing: former state Senator John Lim from Portland’s eastern suburbs said he’d get in. Lim is best-known for losing the 1998 Senate race to Ron Wyden (with a whopping 34% of the vote).

• SC-Gov: While it’s unclear whether “calls for resignation” on Mark Sanford’s part will ever turn into a tangible move for impeachment or just some pre-emptive ass-covering by state Republicans so it looked like they tried, those calls are getting louder. The state’s House Speaker, Bobby Harrell, made the call yesterday, and now there’s talk of a letter with the signatures of at least 60 House GOPers (out of 72, and almost half the entire House) calling on Sanford to step down.

• VT-Gov: As we reported yesterday, Vermont Auditor Tom Salmon did in fact follow through on his decision to switch to from the Democrats to the Republican Party. However, Salmon sounds likely to run again for Auditor, saying there’s a “10% chance” he’ll run for Governor instead. Salmon said that he’d support Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie if Dubie were to run for Governor, and wouldn’t challenge him in a primary. There’s been no word from Dubie, though, on what he plans to do.

• FL-08: Rep. Alan Grayson… well, let me try to be kind here and say that he courageously ignores all that conventional wisdom about who and who not to piss off. He’s picking a fight with his hometown paper, the Orlando Sentinel, referring to them in a fundraising e-mail as “a trashy tabloid that dresses up bias and gossip as news.”

• FL-24: Former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz may have decided against a run in his current home district, the 24th, but he’s holding a fundraiser on behalf of Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel, one of the three GOPers seeking the nod to go against Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in this R+4 district.

• IL-10: Bob Dold is running for the GOP nomination in the 10th District, joining state Rep. Beth Coulson and rich guys Dick Green and Bill Cadigan. Bob Dold is a lawyer who also owns a pest control business. In keeping with district’s lean, Bob Dold says that Bob Dold is fiscally conservative and socially moderate.

• NE-02: Jim Esch, who’s coming off two back-to-back losses to GOP Rep. Lee Terry, switched his party affiliation to “independent” last week, but said yesterday that he has no plans to seek elected office at any level in the future. Esch defended his decision to the Omaha World-Herald: “I feel a little hypocritical when I go to Democratic parties and say, ‘I’m a Democrat’ when I don’t believe in the party.” (J)

Meanwhile, across town, state Sen. Tom White (who’s apparently still a Democrat) officially launched his campaign against Terry today.

• PA-03: Suddenly there’s a backlog of challengers to Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, the Dem freshman in this R+3 district. Republican Meadville businessman Paul Huber, who ran a heating equipment company and served on a local medical center board, filed campaign paperwork. AG’s office investigator Elaine Surma is already in the race for the GOP, and former Erie County Solicitor John Onorato sounds likely to run.

• PA-06: Here’s a likely minor, but certainly interesting, challenge to Doug Pike (who seems to have the establishment support locked down) in the Democratic primary in the open seat race in the 6th. Manan Trivedi is a Reading native born to Indian immigrants; he is an Iraq vet and a primary care physician. He formally announced his campaign yesterday.

• Redistricting: Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita has gone off the deep end in anticipation of the next round of redistricting in Indiana: he wants to make it a felony to consider politics in the redistricting process. Um… considering that Rokita is a Republican and that Republicans are likely to control the redistricting process post-2010, I don’t quite get it. (And neither do Republican legislators, who are telling him to shut up.)

• Votes: The Hill compiles a list of 23 Democrats who have indicated opposition to “the health care plan moving through the House.” (Nancy Pelosi can afford to lose up to 38 votes.) It’s unclear what “opposition” means, and the rationale isn’t always the same (Eric Massa, for instance, opposes it, but only because he’s stuck in single-payer mode), but it’s an interesting list, generally of the vulnerable and/or the hardcore Blue Doggish (although New Jersey’s John Adler strangely stands out like a sore thumb).

• IL-Sen: The Tom Dart boomlet didn’t seem to go anywhere; the attention-grabbing Cook County Sheriff announced that, contrary to rumors, he wasn’t going to run in the Democratic Senate primary and would instead stand for re-election.

• LA-Sen: David Vitter is wasting no time in trying to define Charlie Melancon with new TV spots, saying “Life sure is swell when you’re a liberal-loving, Obama-endorsing congressman like Charlie Melancon.” The good news is: this means everyone recognizes this is a highly competitive race; conventional wisdom says define your opponent if he’s strong, ignore him if he’s weak so you don’t inadvertently give him free PR.

• MA-Sen: Rep. Stephen Lynch, the most conservative member of the Massachusetts House delegation and a former Ironworker, has been trying to lock down the slot as organized labor’s candidate in the upcoming Senate special election, but he was booed at a health care rally and not even invited to a labor breakfast over the weekend, suggesting that his skepticism over the public option could be hurting him among the potential backers he most needs. Campaign Diairies has a handy compare-and-contrast chart of key votes among the Mass. delegation; interestingly, Lynch was also the only one to vote in favor of the Peru free trade agreement, another potential black mark for labor.

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: There’s something almost Shakesperean (or Freudian?) about this story: father and son Reid are both looking at each other as dragging down each others’ poltiical fortunes. Rory sees Harry’s presence on the ballot as hampering his potential gubernatorial run, while Harry sees Rory’s run as hurting his senate re-election bid.

• TX-Sen: There’s been increasing chatter about a run for the Democratic Republican Senate nomination in the possibly-upcoming special election by Dallas mayor Tom Leppert. He’d start out at a financial and name rec disadvantage compared with Bill White and John Sharp, though, having just been in office for half a term.

• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett may be in for some tough sledding in the GOP primary in the Utah Senate race, but he can count on the support of his fellow Senator Orrin Hatch, who gave Bennett a full-throated endorsement last week. Buried in the story, though, is something more troubling: Bennett managed to finish in last place at a Utah County GOP straw poll, where AG Mark Shurtleff won with 42% and ultra-right weirdo Cherilyn Eager got 32%. Bennett is also challenging the legality of Shurtleff’s fundraising; Bennett alleges commingling of federal and state accounts at Shurtleff’s Wasatch Shotgun Blast fundraising picnic (Utah has very lax limits on state fundraising).  

• AZ-Gov: A poll for Arizona Capital Times has, buried in the fine print, some very alarming numbers for appointed GOP Gov. Jan Brewer. They don’t poll her on head-to-heads, but she has perilously low re-elects: 18% say they’ll vote for her, 46% say they’ll vote for someone else, and 36% are undecided. More evidence that the anti-governor tide is high on both sides of the aisle. Sensing her vulnerability (following a budget standoff in which the conservative Brewer found herself to the left of her legislature), primary opponents are considering the race, including state Treasurer Dean Martin and polarizing Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

• GA-Gov: There are now seven viable candidates running for the GOP nomination for Georgia Governor, as state Sen. Jack Jeff Chapman, who represents Brunswick on the coast, got in the race. The little-known Chapman has ruffled some feathers fighting overdevelopment along the coast.

• NH-Gov: John DiStaso points to a couple GOP challengers sniffing out the race against Democratic incumbent Gov. John Lynch, one of the few gubernatorial races left in the country that falls in either “Safe” category. Leading the way is behind-the-scenes conservative activist Karen Testerman, founder of Cornerstone Family Research, who apparently feels ready to step in front of the curtain. Another rumored name is state Sen. Chuck Morse. Little-known businessman Jack Kimball is the only confirmed candidate.

• VA-Gov: We’ve had a deluge of polls in Virginia in the last week, some showing some a tightening race, some not. The newest offering from SurveyUSA definitely falls into the “not” column, giving Republican AG Bob McDonnell a 54-42 lead over Democratic state Sen. Creigh Deeds (the same margin as their previous poll). Crosstabs show that Deeds has pulled into the lead in northern Virginia, but is still way behind in the rest of the state.

• VT-Gov: Here’s someone actually considering switching from the Dems to the GOP: state Auditor Tom Salmon, whose father was Democratic governor in the 1970s and who defeated incumbent GOPer Randy Brock in 2006. Republicans are trying to spin this as a referendum on local Dems being too liberal, but there may be some garden-variety ambition behind this: Salmon says he plans to run for re-election, but may also be considering a run for Governor if Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie doesn’t run, and this seems an easier way to get into the general election than through the already-crowded Dem field.

• AK-AL: Rep. Don Young, who recently drew a strong Democratic challenger in the form of state Rep. Harry Crawford, will also have to run the gauntlet of a strong primary opponent too. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who got nearly 10% of the vote in his independent campaign for governor in 2006 and since then has seen his profile increase via his anti-Sarah Palin blogging efforts, said he’ll run against Young as a GOPer. Crawford gets good notices from local observers, using words like “old-school,” “blue-collar,” “backwoods,” and “gritty” to describe him, which may be a better matchup against the crusty former tugboat captain than the more polished Ethan Berkowitz was last year.

• IL-07: Rep. Danny Davis made it official; he’s out of the House in 2010. He’ll be running for Cook County Board President instead. The 7th is D+35, so spare us the hand-wringing.

• IL-14: This could take us up to five Republicans vying to take back the 14th from Democratic Rep. Bill Foster: state Senator Randy Hultgren is now exploring the race. This could get more than a little inconvenient for crown prince Ethan Hastert, the presumed GOP frontrunner: remember that a bitter primary between dairy magnate Jim Oberweis and st. Sen. Chris Lauzen put a crimp on GOP chances in the 2008 special election here that Foster won.

• LA-02: I don’t know if there was anyone out there fretting that we weren’t going to get a top-tier Democratic candidate to go up against Rep. Joe Cao, but if there was, they can rest easy. State Sen. Cedric Richmond, who didn’t make it into the runoff in the primary against ex-Rep. Bill Jefferson last year, announced he’ll run again in 2010. State Rep. Juan LaFonta and state Sen. Cheryl Gray are also likely Dem candidates in the D+25 seat.

• LA-03: Roll Call takes another look at the many players jostling to take over for Charlie Melancon in the now R+12 3rd. Dept. of Natural Resources head Scott Angelle gets top billing, but nobody is sure whether he’d run as a Democrat or Republican. On the Dem side, state Rep. Damon Baldone, state Rep. Fred Mills, Ascension Parish sheriff Jeff Wiley, and attorney Ravi Sangisetty also get mentions, while other prominent GOPers in the mix are Lafourche Parish sheriff Craig Webre, state Rep. Nickie Monica, former state House speaker Hunt Downer, Plaquemines Parish president Billy Nungesser Jr., and former state Senate candidate Jeff Landry. Complicating the candidates’ decision to run is winning may be a pretty lame prize, seeing that the 3rd may be on the district elimination docket following the 2010 census, with parts of it possibly being subsumed into the nearby 2nd.

• MO-04: Sensing vulnerability or at least a possible retirement, a third Republican has piled on, against 33-year Rep. Ike Skelton. James Scholz, president of a computer security company, has filed to run. Skelton looks like he’s going to stay and fight, though; he has five fundraisers scheduled for the next two months, including one with Steny Hoyer.

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy may get a real challenge for once, from Kevin Cramer, the Republican chair of the state’s Public Service Commission (which regulates utilities). Cramer lost two races to Pomeroy in the 1990s, but this time he points to an NRCC-commissioned internal poll that has him within 4 points of Pomeroy, 46-42.

• NC-11: Local physician Daniel Eichenbaum has been in contact with the NRCC about a run against Heath Shuler. His biggest selling point: if he wins, he promises to stay for only one term. (That ought to get the NRCC interested, seeing as how they just love open seats.)

• SC-03: A bit more winnowing of the field in the dark-red 3rd, as businessman and engineer Stuart Carpenter pulled the plug on his campaign and endorsed state Rep. Rex Rice.

• WA-09: Better-than-usual GOP prospects started eyeing Adam Smith’s seat early this year, speculating that a special election might be in the offing if Smith (an early Obama endorser) got an administration job. That never happened, and now one of them, moderate state Rep. Tom Campbell (not to be confused with the moderate GOPer running for California governor), pulled out of his bid last week, sensing a complete lack of interest from the NRCC. Nevertheless, Pierce County Councilor Dick Muri remains in the race.

• Redistricting: Remember the new independent redistricting commission that was created to take responsibility for California’s legislative districts? Now there’s an initiative afoot to add jurisdiction for congressional districts to the panel as well. The initiative also includes some vague language about preserving “communities of interest,” which, depending on how it’s interpreted, could result in some smoothing-out of California’s remarkably convoluted boundaries and thus some more competitive districts.