I decided to try my hand at redistricting California’s Congressional districts for 2010-2012, using Dave’s Redistricting App. After playing around with it a bit, here’s what the map I came up with looks like overall:

Here’s the 2008 Obama/McCain vote in California, on the precinct level:

Read on for a detailed analysis and breakdown:

California redistricting after the 2010 census presents a great opportunity for Democrats. In 2000, a bipartisan incumbent protection map was drawn, which very effectively protected all incumbents – both Democrats and Republicans. In fact, since that map was drawn, only 1 seat has changed hands. That was CA-11, lost by Richard Pombo to Jerry McNerney in 2006. With time, as California has continued to become more strongly Democratic, the Congressional map has effectively turned into a GOP gerrymander.

My goal was to make as many seats as possible that voted about 63% for Obama, while making as many of the rest of the remaining seats as possible at least competitive and winnable for Democrats, and conceding as few seats as possible to the GOP. My vote estimates are not exact (I did not add up all the precincts), but should generally be accurate, and any errors should be small enough to not really effect the overall partisan status of each district. My vote percentages take into account only Democratic and Republican votes, disregarding 3rd party votes which do not alter the outcome – so 63% for Obama necessarily means 37% for McCain as well. However, if CA 3rd party voters cast votes for major party candidates in Congressional races, on net it should probably help Democrats – a majority of 3rd Party votes in California were cast for Ralph Nader or Cynthia McKinney. I also assumed that California will keep 53 districts, though it is possible that California will lose one (or who knows, even gain, if the census count is high).

In theory, it would be possible to redistrict California so that every Congressional district voted for Obama. But that would require either a bit more gerrymandering than I was willing to contemplate (like running a district from downtown San Francisco to Shasta County), or would require weakening some Democratic seats to the point that they might actually become winnable for Republicans. So instead I settled on trying to create the maximum number of seats with a PVI at or near about D+10. If a Democratic incumbent in a seat which is about D+10 loses their seat to a Republican, they probably deserve to lose it – corruption, scandal, $100,000 in the freezer, and we are probably better off without them. But even if the GOP did manage to momentarily pick up a D+10 district, Democrats would have an excellent chance of picking it back up in the next cycle. Other than scandal, it would take a truly formidable national GOP wave, greater than that of 1994 or 2006, to lose more than a handful of D+10 seats. And in that case, the GOP would control Congress regardless of what happens in California.

I also made a statewide precinct map showing the Obama/McCain vote in 2008 on the precinct level. It is not entirely complete, because no votes were cast in some irredeemably rural “precincts” and some precincts have changed. But for the most part it should get the job done in the areas where we have to worry about looking below the county level. I could have never done Southern California in particular without this. There are 8 shades of blue and red, equally incremented by 6.25 points each, so that for example, the lightest blue means that Obama won the precinct with 50-56.25% of the vote, while the darkest blue precincts voted 93.75-100% for Obama. There’s also a bigger version of the same map if you want to a more zoomed in view (big image, you were warned).

In addition, here’s the 2008 Obama/McCain vote with the size of each precinct adjusted in proportion to the actual number of votes cast in the precinct, rather than its geographical size. With the caveat that this slightly understates Republican strength because the few counties missing in the previous map voted for McCain, this is in one sense a more true depiction of the the Presidential vote in California. It also really brings home what a great proportion of the vote was cast in the LA and Bay areas. There are really not that many substantial clusters of red precincts that cannot be overwhelmed with surrounding blue areas. While in the geographic precinct map, it looks like McCain won some substantial areas, the reality is that he won in very few places – McCain only won in the most sparsely populated areas of the state and in select CA suburbs and exurbs. (Click here for a zoomed in version of the same map).

I’d also recommend anyone interested in California redistricting read Silver Spring’s earlier work on redistricting California, (which gave me some of the ideas that went into this map), which drew a map with 44 Democratic, 7 GOP, and 2 swing seats while increasing Latino and Asian American opportunity districts and generally respecting community/political boundaries. But I wanted to see if I could push the map further, conceding fewer GOP seats and further increasing Hispanic and Asian American representation, without endangering any existing Democratic incumbents.

The future political shape of California

California voted 61% for Obama to 37% for McCain. Disregarding 3rd party votes, Obama got 62% to McCain’s 38%. Obama also managed to narrowly win 8 of 19 GOP held districts which had been gerrymandered to be safe GOP, proving by example that there are potential progressive gains to be made in California.

Because California is unlikely to become much more Republican over the next 10 years, the likelihood that an aggressive redistricting plan will backfire, like the 2000 GOP gerrymander of Pennsylvania, is minimal. The chief reason for this is that California is a Majority Minority state in which the white population will to continue to decline as a share of the population. Yet white voters made up 63% of the electorate in California in 2008 even though they only make up 42% of the population. Simply put, as time passes, the electorate in California will continue to become less white, and more racially representative of the population as a whole. So there are really only two ways that the GOP can gain any ground (or avoid losing it) in California – they must either suddenly start getting support from minority voters, or they must start receiving levels of white support that they only now really get in parts of the South and a few other places. Given the GOP trend on issues like the confirmation of Sonia Sotamayor, it seems unlikely that the GOP can possibly pick up any meaningful sort of ground among minoritiesby 2020, assuming that the GOP does not suddenly transform into a very different party.

According to exit polls, the 2008 vote in California broke down by race as follows. White and black voters exceeded their share of the population, while the percentage of the electorate that was Asian American or Hispanic was only half the percentage of the population that was Asian American or Hispanic.

Actual 2008 Vote

	% of Electorate	Obama	McCain	Effective Obama Support
White	63.0%	52.0%	46.0%	53.1%
African American	10.0%	94.0%	5.0%	94.9%
Latino	18.0%	74.0%	23.0%	76.3%
Asian	6.0%	64.0%	35.0%	64.6%
Other	3.0%	55.0%	41.0%	57.3%
Total				62.3%

Now, what would the 2008 vote in California have looked like if the electorate had the same racial breakdown as the population as a whole? Assuming that each racial group gave the same % to Obama, he would have done 3 points better (7 on net). And that even includes cutting the African American percentage of the electorate by nearly HALF. This is what the future of the California electorate looks like, and it looks hopeless for Republicans.

What if the 2008 Electorate looked like the population?

	% of Population	Obama	McCain	Effective Obama Support
White	42.0%	52.0%	46.0%	53.1%
African American	5.9%	94.0%	5.0%	94.9%
Latino	36.6%	74.0%	23.0%	76.3%
Asian	12.2%	64.0%	35.0%	64.6%
Other	3.3%	55.0%	41.0%	57.3%
Total				65.6%

So what if the GOP were able to get a massive swing of white voters? With the 2008 electorate, McCain would have had to win white voters 2 to 1 to have pulled even in California (much less win it). In fact, he lost white voters 52-46. With the future electorate, things are naturally even bleaker for the GOP. In fact, with an electorate that looked like California’s population (the future electorate that CA is trending towards), Obama could have lost white voters 53-45 and still done better than he actually did in 2008.

What if the 2008 Electorate looked like the population?

	% of Population	Obama	McCain	Effective Obama Support
White	42.0%	45.0%	53.0%	45.9%
African American	5.9%	94.0%	5.0%	94.9%
Latino	36.6%	74.0%	23.0%	76.3%
Asian	12.2%	64.0%	35.0%	64.6%
Other	3.3%	55.0%	41.0%	57.3%
Total				62.6%

It would obviously take much more for Republicans to even come close to winning Statewide elections. In fact, for McCain to have won California without making gains with minorities and with the 2008 electorate, he would have needed to win white voters 66-32. If the electorate had broken down by race the same way as the population, he would have had to win white voters 83-15. And that only just barely gets a narrow GOP win.

Coming close to winning statewide elections is precisely what it would take for the GOP to start putting more than a handful of the D+10 seats in any danger at all. There’s just flat out no way that they can do that in California without appealing to a meaningful number of progressive voters in the Bay Area and in Los Angeles. And frankly, if the GOP starts appealing in places like Los Angeles and the Bay Area, then they will have rejected most of what they currently stand for and progressive Democrats will have already won (or failed spectacularly to the point of creating a GOP wave far exceeding 1994 or 2006). It would be foolishly Rovian to claim that is impossible, but it is a very high bar to hurdle, especially because the national GOP is so deeply averse to even the facade of quasi-moderation of exhibited by Republicans like Schwarzenegger, Crist, and Snowe.

Political Impact

The political impact of this map would be to increase the number of Democrats in Congress from California. Barring major scandal, California should have an approximately 40-13 Democratic delegation (including all 33 current Democratic incumbents). That’s likely to be at least 44-9. And in a best case scenario, in which all the swing seats turn blue, California even has a chance to send an overwhelming 49-4 Democratic delegation to Washington. Moreover, most of the new Democrats elected would likely be reasonably progressive Democrats.

The drawing of a Congressional map along these lines would also have the effect of neutering the net national partisan impact of Republican gerrymanders in states like Florida and Texas. While my personal preference would be to have all districts drawn by a non-partisan commission, it is no good if only Democrats do that in states where Democrats will control redistricting, while the GOP goes on a gerrymandering binge in states expected to gain seats like Florida, Texas, Georgia, and Utah. But with an aggressive redrawing of the lines California, Democrats can in one fell swoop come close to making sure that redistricting will not be a net negative on the national level. By carefully drawing the seats so that newly Democratic districts have strong progressive bases in areas like Los Angeles and the Bay Area, we can also increase the likelihood that better Democrats will be elected from those districts.

District Political Status

Dem	39
Lean Dem	5
Swing	5
GOP	4

Safe Democratic seats

I classify 39 seats as reasonably safe Democratic seats. All of these districts voted 60%+ for Obama (D+7), and 28 of them voted 63%+ for Obama (D+10).

Lean Democratic seats

There are 5 Lean Democratic seats (3, 20, 42, 45, 50). The 20th is already in Democratic hands (and could probably be made safer pretty easily), and there would be a very good chance of picking up the other 4 seats in 2012, especially if Obama again does well in California. These seats all voted 55-58% for Obama and are likely to become more Democratic – 3 of them are new majority Latino seats, and the others have substantial minority populations whose turnout should gradually rise).

Swing Seats

These are seats that voted from 51% to 53% for Obama (4, 40, 41, 44, 48, 49). 40, 41, and 48 all have white populations that make up less than 50% of the district’s population, and should continue to become more Democratic as minority turnout increases. There is no guarantee that Democrats will necessarily be able to pick up all (or any) of these seats, but strong candidates ought to be able to run competitive races and win in these districts.

GOP Seats

Finally, there are 4 safe GOP seats. These all voted about 32-41% for Obama and are designed to be completely unwinnable for Democrats. These districts all serve to suck in the maximum number of Republicans possible, making surrounding districts more Democratic.

In retrospect, if I were to redraw the map, I might consider conceding one more safe GOP seat in the Orange County/Riverside/San Bernadino area. If the most heavily GOP areas remaining were combined into one more district, it would be pretty easy to make a number of swing/lean Dem seats a bit more Democratic.

The Voting Rights Act

I endeavored to follow the requirements of the Voting Rights Act in full, and tried to even go a bit beyond its strict requirements. From the districts drawn in 2000, I managed to substantially increase minority voting strength for both Latinos and Asian Americans, while maintaining effective black control or at least substantial influence over 4 districts. :

VRA Status of New Districts

District Type	# of Districts	% of Districts	% of Population
Majority White	19	35.8%	42.3%
Plurality White	11	20.8%	42.3%
Total White	30	56.6%	42.3%
Majority Latino	15	28.3%	36.6%
Plurality Latino	1	1.9%	36.6%
Total Latino	16	30.2%	36.6%
Plurality Asian	3	5.7%	12.5%
Effective Black	4	7.5%	6.7%

Increase Latino voting strength

5 new Majority Latino seats are added. They are the the 18th, 21st, 25th, 42nd, and 45th. CA-32 also changes to an Asian plurality district, which is offset by the change of CA-26 to a Latino majority district. Factors such as how complete the census count of Latinos is and how concentrated Latino population growth actually is will have a big effect on the actual location and shapes of these districts, but in reality it ought to be possible to add a number of new Latino majority districts.

Increase Asian American voting strength

The 12th, 15th, and 32nd districts become Asian American plurality districts. Although Asians are not a homogeneous group politically or ethnically, and although Californians have sometimes elected Asian Americans in districts without a particularly large Asian community (like Doris Matsui in Sacramento), Asian voters will now have more of a guarantee that they can elect candidates of their choice.

Maintain African American voting strength

I tried to maintain African American voting strength as much as I could, but trends are working against the maintanance of the existing 4 districts which are effectively controlled by African American voters (CA-9, CA-33, CA-35, CA-37). Particularly in the 3 LA districts, Latino population growth is gradually overwhelming the African American population, particularly in CA-35. Additionally, population growth has not kept up with the state average in these districts, meaning that they will need to expand – and there are really no more concentrations of black voters nearby that can be added to the 3 districts. On the basis of population, one could probably justify merging the African American areas of the 3 existing districts into two districts with higher African American populations, but I did not do this in order to try and protect all incumbents. If a merger of these districts does not happen in 2010, the voters may well make it happen anyway, making a merger in 2020 a near certainty. But despite these difficulties, I managed to actually slightly increase the black population % in CA-9 and CA-33. In CA-35 and 37, the African American percentage drops, but the main threat to effective black control of these districts (Latino voters) are decreased as a share of the population. By making these districts more white and more Republican, Maxine Waters and Laura Richardson are probably actually safer, because the main threat to their incumbancy is a primary challenge from a Latino Democrat. While one could arge that this disenfranchises Latinos, there is really no other way to maintain black VRA districts that I can see, and the Latinos removed from CA-35 and CA-37 help make it possible to create other Latino majority districts in the LA area.

Breakdown of the Districts

Finally, let’s look at the new districts themselves, in aggregate and individually. Because I de-packed many overly Democratic districts, the average and median district becomes more Republican, while a greater number of districts become Democratic.

District Summary

District	New Dist Est. Obama%	Old Dist Obama %	Change in Obama %	Designation	VRA Status	Region
1	63	67	-4	Dem	Majority White	Northern California
2	39	44	-5	GOP	Majority White	Northern California
3	57	50	7	Lean Dem	Majority White	Northern California
4	53	45	8	Swing	Majority White	Northern California
5	62	71	-9	Dem	Plurality White	Northern California
6	72	78	-6	Dem	Majority White	Northern California
7	63	73	-10	Dem	Majority White	Bay Area
8	81	87	-6	Dem	Majority White	Bay Area
9	83	90	-7	Dem	Effective Black	Bay Area
10	63	66	-3	Dem	Majority White	Bay Area
11	61	55	6	Dem	Plurality White	Bay Area
12	79	76	3	Dem	Plurality Asian	Bay Area
13	64	76	-12	Dem	Plurality White	Bay Area
14	73	75	-2	Dem	Majority White	Bay Area
15	69	70	-1	Dem	Plurality Asian	Bay Area
16	66	71	-5	Dem	Plurality Latino	Bay Area
17	65	74	-9	Dem	Majority White	Central California
18	60	60	0	Dem	Majority Latino	Central California
19	63	47	16	Dem	Plurality White	Bay Area
20	56	61	-5	Lean Dem	Majority Latino	Central California
21	67	43	24	Dem	Majority Latino	Central California
22	32	39	-7	GOP	Majority White	Central California
23	62	67	-5	Dem	Majority White	Central California
24	63	51	12	Dem	Majority White	Greater LA
25	65	51	14	Dem	Majority Latino	Greater LA
26	62	52	10	Dem	Majority Latino	Greater LA
27	62	68	-6	Dem	Plurality White	Greater LA
28	76	78	-2	Dem	Majority Latino	Greater LA
29	61	69	-8	Dem	Plurality White	Greater LA
30	64	72	-8	Dem	Majority White	Greater LA
31	73	82	-9	Dem	Majority Latino	Greater LA
32	63	70	-7	Dem	Plurality Asian	Greater LA
33	94	88	6	Dem	Effective Black	Greater LA
34	65	76	-11	Dem	Majority Latino	Greater LA
35	76	86	-10	Dem	Effective Black	Greater LA
36	64	66	-2	Dem	Plurality White	Greater LA
37	64	81	-17	Dem	Effective Black	Greater LA
38	63	73	-10	Dem	Majority Latino	Greater LA
39	62	67	-5	Dem	Majority Latino	Greater LA
40	52	48	4	Swing	Plurality White	Greater LA
41	53	45	8	Swing	Plurality White	Greater LA
42	58	46	12	Lean Dem	Majority Latino	Greater LA
43	63	69	-6	Dem	Majority Latino	Greater LA
44	41	50	-9	GOP	Majority White	Greater LA
45	55	52	3	Lean Dem	Majority Latino	Greater LA
46	60	49	11	Dem	Majority White	Greater LA
47	60	61	-1	Dem	Majority Latino	Greater LA
48	52	50	2	Swing	Plurality White	Greater LA
49	51	46	5	Swing	Majority White	San Diego
50	57	52	5	Lean Dem	Majority White	San Diego
51	62	64	-2	Dem	Majority Latino	San Diego
52	38	46	-8	GOP	Majority White	San Diego
53	63	70	-7	Dem	Plurality White	San Diego
Average	62.17	63.37	-1
Median	63.00	66.88	-4

Northern California

I defined the Northern California region as pretty much everything from Sacramento northwards. It includes 6 districts. 4 Should be Democratic, while CA-2 is Republican and CA-4 is a swing district. This is the whitest part of the State, and therefore probably the part of the State where there is the greatest potential for the GOP to make gains (even if it seems improbable at best that they will make much headway in liberal areas like Sonoma County). For that reason I decided not get too overly aggressive here. It would be possible to avoid conceding a GOP district in the far North-East, but unless you did something like draw a tentacle from Nancy Pelosi’s district up into rural GOP areas, it would be very hard to then also avoid creating a strong or leaning GOP district in the Sierra Nevada’s East and South-East of Sacramento. So I didn’t even try. Instead, I took advantage of the opportunity to move Nancy Pelosi’s district north without endangering the 1st or 6th districts, giving her Marin County across the Golden Gate bridge, which, as we will see, makes it possible to squeeze a great deal out of the Eastern side of the San Francisco Bay.

Northern California

Sacramento Area

San Francisco Bay Area

Every single seat based in the San Francisco Bay area is safely Democratic. A number of these districts also extend outwards to the east, in order to avoid wasting too many votes in ultra-Demacratic districts. But many districts remain entirely within the Bay area, and if one were willing to draw pinwheels flowing out from San Francisco and the San Mateo Peninsula to places like Bakersfield, Fresno, and Barstow, you could pretty easily squeeze out another one or two utterly safe Democratic districts.

Northern Bay Area

Southern Bay Area

Central California

Given the GOP lean of much of this region, having only 1 GOP district is not bad. Latino voting strength is greatly increased in this area. Although it might not be at all certain that all of the Latino districts will immediately have an effective Latino voting majority, they will with time. This is the most obviously gerrymandered part of the state, but that is necessary in order to increase Latino voting strength and to increase Democratic strength in less heavily Latino areas. The actual lines in this area will be greatly affected by the actual distribution of Latino population growth within counties.

Central Coast

Central Valley

LA Area

I am using a broad definition of the LA area, including areas beyond the city of Los Angeles proper, including Orange, Riverside, San Bernadino, and Ventura counties. In this area, and especially in LA County, some of the districts are better thought of as general ideas than specific exact proposals. I am fairly certain that someone who knows the area better than I do could draw the urban lines a bit more sensibly while maintaining or increasing all the political benefits and fully complying with the Voting Rights Act (a major cause of strange district shapes). Additionally, the 2008 Population Estimates are only available on the County level – so the actual population will be distributed somewhat differently than in the lines I drew. The exact lines should not be taken too literally, but it should be possible to draw roughly similar districts with the same basic demographic and political results. I may have mistakenly drawn some Democratic incumbents’ houses out of their district, but in reality that would probably be easy to avoid, if it matters. The greater LA area also has the greatest concentration of minorities in California.

That is the chief reason why I was more willing to draw some districts that were only lean Democratic or swing seats – because of their high but still relatively low turnout Latino and Asian American populations, many districts are safe bets to become more Democratic as that turnout increases. So even if these seats do not all flip Democratic in 2012, there is a great chance that they will flip some time between 2014 and 2020. Still, you can make a good argument for either conceding another seat to the GOP (or sending another district or 2 deep into the heart of LA), and if I were redrawing the map I would probably concede a third safe GOP seat in the Orange/Riverside/Burnadino area in order to make the surrounding districts more Democratic. But the overall point is that there is no reason for any district in LA County to be Republican, and from LA County, a number of districts can be safely extended outwards to make even more Democratic seats. It also ought to be possible to create more Latino majority seats and an Asian American plurality seat.

Southern California

Northern LA area

Southern LA area

Eastern LA area

San Diego

Last but not least, the San Diego area. Democrats currently hold only 2 of 5 seats in this area, while Obama won 54-44. With the exception of CA-51, the minority population in San Diego is relatively small. But even without relying on votes from Los Angeles, it should be possible to make 3 fairly strong Democratic districts, one heavily GOP district, and a swing district out of this area.

Breakdown of the Districts

And now to all 53 of the individual districts, one by one.

CA-1

Incumbent:	Mike Thompson (Blue Dog D) v. Wally Herger (R)
Previous District PVI:	D+13
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	60% Obama, D+7
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	63% White
New District Demographics:	66% White

CA-1 pairs Napa Blue dog Mike Thompson with Butte County (which narrowly voted for Obama) Republican Wally Herger. The district basically consists of Napa, Yolo, Colusa, Sutter, ande Butte counties, along with the section of Sonoma County previously in CA-1. Those areas combined voted 60% for Obama, and that is the basic partisan orientation of this district. If that’s not Democratic enough, it could easily be made stronger by trading some Sonoma area territory with CA-6. Some relatively unpopulated parts of Yolo and Sutter Counties are cut out to provide a path for CA-4 to connect Yolo and Placer counties, and the city of Marysville in Yuba County is thrown in to equalize the population.

In the event that Herger decided to actually run in this district, he would almost certainly lose. Half of the districts population lives in Napa, Yolo, and Sonoma counties, and would vote heavily for Thomson. In the other half of the district, Herger might win, but would have a lot of trouble winning by enough to offset the heavily Democratic Napa/Yolo/Sonoma margin. It is also easier to imagine Thomson appealing to voters in Butte County than it is to imagine Herger appealing to San Francisco Bay area liberals.

But more than likely this is a moot point, because Herger would almost certainly take one look at CA-1 and opt to run in CA-2 instead, which includes a lot of his rural GOP base areas.

CA-2

Incumbent:	?Wally Herger? (R), ?Tom McClintock? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+11
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	39% Obama, R+14
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	72% White
New District Demographics:	78% White

CA-2 serves to pack as many rural Northern California Republicans as possible into one district. It is the whitest district in California, and is very strongly Republican. CA-2 includes compact rural counties in Northern California, and snakes down through Placer, El Dorado, and Amador counties to pick up rural/exurban GOP areas, leaving closer in Sacramento suburbs in Placer County to CA-4, and leaving the more Democratic Lake Tahoe area to CA-10.

As discussed with CA-1, Wally Herger would probably run in this district, even though he lives in the new CA-1. Tom McClintock would also probably want prefer to run in this district than in a swing district, even though he lives in the new CA-5. In the event of a primary between Herger and McClintock, Herger would probably prevail because slightly more of the new CA-2 comes from Herger’s old district than from the old CA-4, and Herger has longer standing actual ties to the area than McClintock.

CA-3

Incumbent:	Dan Lungren (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+6
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	57% Obama, D+4
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	65% White
New District Demographics:	56% White

CA-3 is now entirely within Sacramento County, and is substantially more Democratic than the old CA-3, which voted narrowly for Obama. There is a delicate balancing act here between hurting Lungren and keeping Matsui secure. It would be possible to make CA-3 even more Democratic, but not without dragging CA-5 under roughly D+10, which I wanted to avoid. It is not a complete certainty that Lungren would lose in this district, but it is a certainly that he would face very competitive elections every 2 years until he does.

CA-4

Incumbent:	None
Previous District PVI:	R+10
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	53% Obama, D+0
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	79% White
New District Demographics:	57% White

The new CA-4 is a bona fide suburban swing district, combining 99% of Democratic Solano County (4/7 of the district) with GOP leaning Sacramento Suburban part of Placer county, and sparsely populated areas in between to connect them. There is no real incumbent in this district, but Charlie Brown would be well positioned to win here. This district is much less Republican than the old version, which he only barely lost in 2008. If not, a Democrat from Solano County would have a good chance of winning here. The only potential hitch is the fast pace of growth in Placer County. If that tends to increase GOP margins, this district will become more Republican with time. On the other hand, if the Sacramento suburbs liberalize as they grow, this district will stay roughly even or move slightly more Democratic. It would be pretty easy to make this district more Democratic by extending it further into the Bay Area, but I kept it more compact and suburban based.

CA-5

Incumbent:	Doris Matsui (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+15
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	62% Obama, D+9
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	39% White
New District Demographics:	46% White

CA-5 becomes more Republican, but not Republican enough to put Doris Matsui in any realistic danger. It now crosses over (barely) into Yolo County to pick up West Sacramento, but otherwise is based very much in Sacramento proper.

CA-6

Incumbent:	Lynn Woolsey (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+23
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	72% Obama, D+19
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	70% White
New District Demographics:	71% White

CA-6 ditches highly progressive Marin County to pick up less-progressive-but-still-progressive areas further North along the coast. Lynn Woolsey still has absolutely nothing to worry about, and could easily take on some more GOP turf or donate some heavily Democratic areas to CA-1. Alternatively, CA-2 could be sucked into CA-6/Marin and become a swing or Democratic district rather than being conceded to the GOP, but that would make it much more difficult to make CA-4 a swing district, and much more difficult to turn CA-10 into a Democratic district with a strong base in the Sierra Nevadas, and would also necessitate some more county splitting.

CA-7

Incumbent:	George Miller (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+19
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	39% White, 27% Latino
New District Demographics:	50% White, 31% Latino

CA-7 moves out of Solano County, and into San Joaquin where it picks up Lodi, Tracy, and Manteca (most of the county other than Stockton). The district also cedes areas around Richmond to CA-10 and CA-9, resulting in a more Republican District. My intention was to bring it down to about D+10, but it could be a couple points off in either direction. If it is too Republican, it would be very easy to fix that and make this district more Democratic. CA-7 isn’t D+19 any more, but it does not really need to be. Long time incumbent George Miller, who has been in Congress since 1974, will not be in any danger of suddenly now losing his seat simply becase it becomes a bit less Democratic.

CA-8

Incumbent:	Nancy Pelosi (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+35
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	81% Obama, D+28
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	45% White, 30% Asian
New District Demographics:	61% White, 18% Asian

Nancy Pelosi’s CA-8 plays a very important but subtle role in this overall map. By crossing the Golden Gate Bridge and taking in Marin County, her district becomes slightly less Democratic. But that’s not the main point. By taking in Marin County, it allows CA-6 to push northwards, and just as importantly, it sucks CA-12 into San Francisco (making it Asian plurality in the process), and sucks all the districts to the South-East of it towards San Francisco. This dominoes through the districts and ultimately provides the impetus to pull more Republican districts in the Central Valley further in towards areas like Santa Cruz, San Jose, and Alameda.

CA-9

Incumbent:	Barbara Lee (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+37
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	83% Obama, D+30
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	36% White, 20% Black, 17% Asian, 23% Latino
New District Demographics:	37% White, 22% Black, 16% Asian, 21% Latino

The percentage of African Americans in Barbara Lee’s new 9th District is not just maintained, but actually increased, even while the district becomes a little bit less Democratic. I did this by trading ultra-liberal but predominantly white areas of her district (principally Berkeley) for predominantly white liberal areas in Contra Costa County, along with Richmond, which has a fairly high black population. So the district now consists of Oakland, Richmond, and areas of Contra Costa county like Orinda, Walnut Creek, and Pleasantville.

CA-10

Incumbent:	?John Garamendi? (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+11
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	56% White
New District Demographics:	60% White

This new version of CA-10 is rather different from the previous CA-10, and is drawn under the assumption that John Garamendi wins the CA-10 special election. This district is probably the most bizarrely shaped of all the districts I drew, but it makes sense, at least from the perspective of drawing a distrcit that would be good for Garamendi. Republican George Radanovich also lives here (in Mariposa), but he wouldn’t have much chance if he ran in this district.

Nearly 4/7 of the population of CA-10 live in Contra Costa or Alameda Counties, and those areas are all very heavily Democratic (Berkeley – where Garamendi went to college, El Cerrito, San Pablo, Pinole). From there, it snakes through sparsely populated parts of Solano, Amador, and Sacramento counties, picking up Garamendi’s home along the way. Then it enters the Sierra Nevada mountain range through Calaveras county, where Garamendi was born and has a ranch. It picks up Republican leaning areas near Yosemite National Park (Garamendi was Deputy Secretary of the Interior), and picks up a mixture of Rural Republicans and more liberal Lake Tahoe/ski areas up and down the Nevada border, stretching from Inyo County in the south to Nevada County in the north. I have to say, I was sorely tempted to cross into Fresno and Tulare counties to pick up Sequoia and King’s Canyon National park, and into San Bernadino to take in all of Death Valley, but I restrained myself.

Alpine, Calaveras, Inyo, Mariposa, Mono, Nevada, and Toulumne counties collectively voted McCain 52% to Obama 48%. If you assume that liberal areas around Lake Tahoe (parts of Placer and El Dorado counties) roughly cancel out extraneous GOP areas, and that the Contra Costa/Alameda county parts of the district voted about 75% for Obama, then you end up with a district that voted about 63% for Obama, litte changed from the current partisan stance of CA-10. And there we have it – a district that takes care of some hard to deal with GOP areas in the Sierras, avoids wasting Democratic votes along the Nevada border on a GOP district, that opens up space in eastern Contra Costa County for CA-7 to dilute GOP votes in San Joaquin county, and that John Garamendi should be able to effectively represent despite the district’s bizarre geographic shape, given his background. Whew!

As a more compact alternative to this, instead of reaching all the way to Berkeley, the district could combine the Sierras with a different and nearer Democratic area, such as the city of San Joaquin. But then this district would not include Garamendi’s home, would be only weakly Democratic rather than safe, would be less progressive, and would really be more like a reconfigured 19th than the 10th.

CA-11

Incumbent:	Jerry McNerney (D)
Previous District PVI:	R+1
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	61% Obama, D+8
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	51% White, 26% Latino
New District Demographics:	45% White, 27% Latino

CA-11 is altered significantly to make it more Democratic. It now takes in all of the city of Stockton, in exchange for which it gives up some relatively conservative areas to CA-7. It also expands a bit more in Alameda County, taking on Livermore as well as a bit of territory from Pete Stark and Barbara Lee. The end result is a much safer district for McNerney. I guesstimate that it voted roughly 61% for Obama, but that could be off by a few percentage points. If it is too Republican, that is easy to fix.

CA-12

Incumbent:	Jackie Speier (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+23
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	79% Obama, D+26
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	45% White, 31% Asian
New District Demographics:	35% White, 38% Asian

CA-12 moves further into San Francisco to accomadate Pelosi’s shift into Marin County. In the process, it turns into a district with a slight Asian American plurality.

CA-13

Incumbent:	Pete Stark (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+22
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	64% Obama, D+11
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	29% White, 35% Asian, 23% Latino
New District Demographics:	37% White, 26% Asian, 28% Latino

CA-13 is still primarily based in Alameda County, where 2/3 of the district is located, retaining Pete Stark’s home town of Fremont, along with Union City, Newark, and most of Hayward. It then crosses through unpopulated mountains to the east and reappears on the outskirts of Modesto, where it basically picks up the parts of Stanislaus County that were formerly in the 19th district. The end result is a district which is still strongly Democratic, but not packed as full of progressive Alameda County voters as before.

CA-14

Incumbent:	Anna Eshoo (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+21
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	73% Obama, D+20
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	53% White, 21% Asian, 19% Latino
New District Demographics:	52% White, 22% Asian, 20% Latino

Like CA-12 before it, CA-14 is sucked towards San Francisco because of CA-8’s trip across the Golden Gate Bridge. In San Mateo County, it adds San Carlos, Foster City, and San Mateo. Saratoga in Santa Cruz County along with CA-14’s old section of Santa Cruz County are removed. This has no real political impact, and CA-14 remains a veritable Democratic fortress.

CA-15

Incumbent:	Mike Honda (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+15
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	69% Obama, D+16
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	39% White, 36% Asian
New District Demographics:	35% White, 39% Asian

Moving parts of CA-9 and CA-13 out of Alameda County has left some people there that need to go somewhere. They go into Mike Honda’s 15th district, which is now up to 39% Asian American. No real partisan effect, except CA-15 may get a bit more Democratic.

CA-16

Incumbent:	Zoe Lofgren (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+16
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	66% Obama, D+13
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	28% White, 26% Asian, 40% Latino
New District Demographics:	29% White, 19% Asian, 45% Latino

60% of CA-16 remains within Santa Clara County. To get to the rest of the district, it crosses the mountains and ends up in Stanislaus County, where it takes in the city of Modesto. strengthening the Latino plurality in the process. This only makes the district 3 or 4 points more Republican, and Zoe Lofgren has nothing to worry about.

CA-17

Incumbent:	Sam Farr (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+19
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	65% Obama, D+12
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	41% White, 48% Latino
New District Demographics:	60% White, 19% Latino

Sam Farr’s district becomes much whiter than before, principally because it gives up predominantly Latino areas inland (Salinas, Hollister, Watsonville) to the 21st district in order to help give that district a strong Latino majority. In exchange, Farr adds the rest of Santa Cruz county (except for Watsonville), parts of Santa Clara county (Saratoga, Campbell, Los Gatos, Monte Sereno), as well as some conservative inland areas in San Luis Obispo and Kern counties. But 78% of the population lives in Monterrey, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz counties, all of which are strongly Democratic, so Farr’s district remains strongly Democaratic even while becoming much whiter. As a rough estimate, this district probably voted about 65% for Obama.

CA-18

Incumbent:	Dennis Cardoza (Blue Dog D)
Previous District PVI:	D+4
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	60% Obama, D+7
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	32% White, 50% Latino
New District Demographics:	28% White, 52% Latino

In order to keep CA-18 majority Latino while also making CA-21 and CA-19 into 70% Latino districts, CA-18 dumps its sections of Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties. Instead, it takes in all of Merced county, then runs south through Madera County and then into Fresno, where it takes just about every precinct in the city that voted for Obama. This makes the district a couple of percentage points less white and more Latino, which also makes it a few points more Democratic.

CA-19

Incumbent:	None
Previous District PVI:	R+9
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	52% White, 5% Asian, 36% Latino
New District Demographics:	47% White, 16% Asian, 30% Latino

This new CA-19 is the prime beneficiary of Nancy Pelosi’s shift northwards. It is radically different from the old CA-19, and shares no constituents with it at all. Whereas the old version was safely GOP, the new one is safely Democratic. 5/7 of the district is in San Jose, and it is an effective certainty that this district will elect another progressive San Jose Democrat. The other 200,000 people are mostly white Republicans in the Central Valey, running through farmland to pick up as many GOP voters as possible in the Visalia/Hanford/Tulare area. It is a measure of just how large the Latino population is now in the Central Valley that even though these 200,000 people are the least Latino leftover areas from after making 2 70% Latino districts, 40% of the people here are still Latino, and only 50% are white. In the end, near 70% support from Santa Clara county combined with 40% support from the Central Valley should end up with a district that voted about 63% for Obama.

CA-20

Incumbent:	Jim Costa (Blue Dog D)
Previous District PVI:	D+5
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	56% Obama, D+3
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	17% White, 68% Latino
New District Demographics:	21% White, 70% Latino

If it is possible for a district that is 70% Latino to vote Republican, it will be this new, more rural version of CA-20 that leads the way. The cities of Fresno and Bakersfield are cut out entirely, and the district becomes focused on the small towns and farms of the Central Valley.

Jim Costa should be well positioned to win in this district even if it is not as immediately Democratic as one might wish, because of his background in farming, and because he has previously represented much of it. I am guessing that this district voted about 56% for Obama, but that could be way off in either direction. If it is too Republican, it should be fairly easy to make it more Democratic by rearraning the division of territory amongst the 18th, 20th, and 21st districts (the Central Valley Latino districts, possibly returning Bakersfield or Fresno). Regardless of how Democratic this district is now, over time it will steadily become more Democratic as Latinos gradually come to make up a share of the electorate closer to their share of the population. Who knows, eventually this district might elect a latter day Cesar Chavez.

CA-21

Incumbent:	None
Previous District PVI:	R+13
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	67% Obama, D+14
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	40% White, 49% Latino
New District Demographics:	20% White, 70% Latino

This new CA-21 has absolutely nothing in common with the old CA-21. It is mainly carved out of the old CA-17 and CA-20. It is fully 70% Latino, which might be high enough for Latino voters to actually have effective control over the district. A number of the white voters in urban Bakersfield and in the Salinas area are Democrats, which should make this district solidly Democratic and progressive. I estimate that it voted about 67% for Obama, but there is a high margin of error to that estimate, and much depends on exactly how high Latino turnout in this district will be.

CA-22

Incumbent:	?Kevin McCarthy? (R), ?Devin Nunes? (R), ?George Radanovich? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+16
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	32% Obama, R+21
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	57% White, 49% Latino
New District Demographics:	62% White, 30% Latino

This new CA-22 is a dumping ground for Republicans from Fresno to Bakersfield and everywhere in between. About 1/7 of this district is carved from the old 19th, 1/3 from the old 21st, and half from the old 22nd. It should have voted somewhere in the low 30s for Obama. This is the only solidly Republican district left in the Central Valley, and it is very, very solid. Even so, it is only 62% white!!! This district should make for an interesting GOP primary, as fully 3 GOP Reps have the potential to run in this ultra-GOP district.

CA-23

Incumbent:	Lois Capps (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+12
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	62% Obama, D+9
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	43% White, 47% Latino
New District Demographics:	51% White, 39% Latino

CA-23 is no longer confined entirely to the coast, and now includes the entirety of Santa Barbara county. In San Luis Obispo county, it retains the same areas along the coast, but now takes in all of the city of San Luis Obispo. That shouldn’t hurt her, because essentially every precinct in the city voted for Obama. It still extends into Ventura County, but no longer picks up all of Oxnard. This makes CA-23 slightly less Democratic, but not by enough to endanger Lois Capps.

CA-24

Incumbent:	Elton Gallegly (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+4
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	64% White, 26% Latino
New District Demographics:	62% White, 25% Latino

The racial demographics of CA-24 remain virtually the same. But politically, it is a district transformed. 38% of the population is now in LA County, and in liberal parts of LA County – Malibu, Santa Monica, and some other parts of West LA. It should now be about 63% Obama, give or take a percentage point. Elton Gallegly, who does not even live in the district any more, would have a tough time in this new iteration, if he bothered even running.

CA-25

Incumbent:	?Howard McKeon? (R), ?Howard Berman?
Previous District PVI:	R+6
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	65% Obama, D+12
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	44% White, 38% Latino
New District Demographics:	29% White, 55% Latino

CA-25 contracts entirely within LA County, and becomes much more Democratic. It is transformed into a 55% Latino Majority district, composed mainly of Lancaster, Palmdale, and areas around San Fernando taken from both the old 27th and 28th districts. Santa Clarita, where McKeon lives, is cut out of the district. For that reason, it is probably more likely that McKeon would run in the 27th, if he runs at all. Howard Berman (D) could also potentially opt to run in either the 25th or the 28th, both of which contain substantial chunks of his old district (but he’ll probably prefer the more strongly Democratic 28th). The 25th district is strongly Democratic, probably somewhere in the mid-60s for Obama.

CA-26

Incumbent:	?David Dreier? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+3
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	62% Obama, D+9
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	44% White, 30% Latino
New District Demographics:	18% White, 63% Latino

David Dreier doesn’t really have anywhere to run, as fully 7 districts now include pieces of his old district. His best shot would probably actually be CA-40. The district numbered 26, which includes Dreier’s home in San Dimas, turns into a district with a strong 63% Latino majority. Only GOP leaning Glendora and San Dimas are retained from the old 26th, while predominantly Latino areas like West Covina, La Puente, El Monte, and Irwindale are added from the old 32nd and 38th districts. It probably voted somewhere in the general range of about 62% for Obama, which ought to be enough to doom Dreier here.

CA-27

Incumbent:	Brad Sherman (D) v. Howard McKeon (R)
Previous District PVI:	D+13
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	62% Obama, D+9
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	38% White, 43% Latino
New District Demographics:	48% White, 35% Latino

The new 27th district adds Santa Clarita, where Howard McKeon lives, and which makes up 2/7 of the new district. To try and avoid making the 27th too Republican, I tried to get rid of the relatively less Democratic parts of his old district in exchange, keeping the more Democratic areas around Northridge. This causes the 27th to become less Democratic, but not much. Sherman should be strongly favored to take out McKeon in this district. It would also be easy to make this district a bit more Democratic if necessary.

CA-28

Incumbent:	Howard Berman (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+23
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	76% Obama, D+23
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	30% White, 59% Latino
New District Demographics:	27% White, 55% Latino

The new 28th district shifts a bit to the south, picking up part of Burbank and some Latino areas to the east of Hollywood from the 31st district. I’ll just say that it in partisan terms it remains about the same as it is, and may even have become more Demacratic. The 28th should have voted about 76% for Obama – the least Democratic precincts in the district (in Burbank) still voted 65% for Obama! So if any other districts nearby need to become more Democratic, the 28th could be modified to lend a hand without breaking a sweat.

CA-29

Incumbent:	Adam Schiff (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+14
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	61% Obama, D+8
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	42% White, 26% Asian, 26% Latino
New District Demographics:	46% White, 7% Asian, 33% Latino

Adam Schiff’s 29th district takes on the role of diluting GOP votes in San Bernadino County. The San Bernadino portion of the 29th takes in vast expanses of San Bernadino County taken from the former 25th and 41st districts, including Hesperia, Victorville, and Barstow, which make up just under half the population of the district. In The LA County portion, heavily Democratic areas around Pasadena are combine with strongly Democratic areas around Schiff’s home in Burbank to make this district Democratic – the parts of his old district that he gives up are the relatively more GOP parts. Even given that the San Bernadino part of the district voted for McCain by several points, the LA County part (especially Pasadena) is strongly enough Democratic that the district overall voted about 61% for Obama.

CA-30

Incumbent:	Henry Waxman (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+18
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	64% Obama, D+11
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	75% White
New District Demographics:	68% White

The white voters in Henry Waxman’s district are liberal enough that redistricting Waxman’s district to make it more Republican actuall actually ends up making it less white. The base of Waxman’s district remains in Beverly Hills/West Hollywood, and then snakes up through the hills towards Ventura County. It crosses over, taking in Simi Valley, Moorpark, and some smaller areas surrounding. In sum, the Ventura component of the district makes up a third of the total population. Waxman remains very much safe.

CA-31

Incumbent:	Xavier Becerra (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+29
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	73% Obama, D+20
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	12% White, 68% Latino
New District Demographics:	20% White, 62% Latino

CA-31 becomes less overwhelmingly Democratic and less overwhelmingly Latino by giving up some Latinos (indirectly to the 25th) to turn that district into a Latino majority district. In exchange, Nevertheless, it retains a very strong Latino majority (62%). Becerra picks up some less Democratic (but not really GOP) areas in Glendale and La Canada Flintridge from the old 26th and 29th districts. These new areas only make up 1/4 of the district, which remains heavily Democratic. It should be something like 73% for Obama now, which could easily be off a couple points depending on Latino turnout. Not that it matters – Becerra is utterly safe.

CA-32

Incumbent:	Judy Chu (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+15
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	12% White, 20% Asian, 65% Latino
New District Demographics:	24% White, 44% Asian, 28% Latino

CA-32 is transformed from a Latino majority district into a strong Asian-American plurality district (with Dreier’s 26th becoming a Latino majority district to offset the change). I will say up front that Asian Americans are not a monolithic group, and I have no real idea how the “Asian” population breaks down. I just tried to make the district as “Asian” as possible. The best I could figure out how to do while keeping it relatively compact was 44%. With an earlier version I was able to get the Asian population higher, but that district was a true monstrosity, stretching here and there all over the place and even had a tentacle reaching into Irvine in Orange County.

The district is substantially reworked, combining areas within the old 32nd with areas from the 26th, 29th, 38th, and 43rd. It includes in the north/west Sierra Madre, Monrovia, Arcadia, San Marino, South Pasadena, Temple City, Gabriel, Alhambra, Monterey Park, and Rosemead. Then it crosses through Whittier and La Habra Heights to pick up substantial Asian populations in Diamond Bar and Walnut. This district is definitely Democratic – it contains only a few McCain precincts – but it is hard to say how much without actually taking the time to calculate partisanship on the precinct level, because it takes from so many different old districts and I don’t know much about the voting patterns or turnout of Asian Americans in this area. I’d guesstimate it is in the low 60s for Obama, but someone that knows the area could probably make a better estimate.

CA-33

Incumbent:	Diane Watson (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+35
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	94% Obama, D+41
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	21% White, 27% Black, 13% Asian, 37% Latino
New District Demographics:	10% White, 29% Black, 11% Asian, 47% Latino

In order to try and keep the African American percentage in this district relatively high, I cut out some white areas of the district and added some Black/Latino areas. CA-35 has a lot of precincts that voted near unanimously for Obama, and becomes even more Democratic than it already was.

CA-34

Incumbent:	Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+22
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	65% Obama, D+12
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	8% White, 81% Latino
New District Demographics:	21% White, 65% Latino

In order to increase Latino voting power in other districts while simultaneously diluting GOP votes, this district shifts, while retaining its base in the general area of Vernon. From Vernon/Maywood, the 34th now stretches east through Downey, La Mirada, and then into Orange County, where it adds Fullerton. The Orange County portion makes up only 20% of the district, which is now only 65% Latino. Even given low turnout in Latino LA County areas relative to in Fullerton, this district probably also voted about 65% for Obama – and that will go up with time as Latino turnout gradually increases.

CA-35

Incumbent:	Maxine Waters (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+31
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	76% Obama, D+23
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	10% White, 28% Black, 6% Asian, 54% Latino
New District Demographics:	17% White, 26% Black, 11% Asian, 43% Latino

What to do with the McCain precincts in South-West LA County around Palos Verdes/Rolling Hills? Why, give them to Maxine Waters, of course! Doing this makes it possible to preserve African American voting strength (by decreasing the Latino percentage) and dilute GOP votes all at once. So this district becomes substantially more White, Asian, and GOP, without becoming much less Black. It is brought down to about 76% for Obama.

CA-36

Incumbent:	Jane Harman (Blue Dog D)
Previous District PVI:	D+12
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	64% Obama, D+11
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	44% White, 15% Asian, 33% Latino
New District Demographics:	44% White, 16% Asian, 33% Latino

There are no real changes to Harman’s district, I only altered a tiny fraction of the district in the North. At most this might make CA-36 1 point more Republican, with emphasis on “might.”

CA-37

Incumbent:	Laura Richardson (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+26
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	64% Obama, D+12
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	13% White, 22% Black, 13% Asian, 48% Latino
New District Demographics:	31% White, 18% Black, 11% Asian, 36% Latino

The 26th district is altered to become less overwhelmingly Democratic. In LA County, the 37th retains Compton and its immediate environs, then approaches the county line through Long Beach. It extends in Orange County through inland parts of Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Westminster, and Fountain Valley, up until it reaches the Santa Ana river. 40% of the district is in Orange County, while 60% is in LA county. Although the OC part voted for McCain, the LA part, rooted around Compton, is enough to make the district about a 64% Obama district that preserves African American political influence.

CA-38

Incumbent:	Grace Napolitano (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+10
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	10% White, 76% Latino
New District Demographics:	28% White, 58% Latino

The 38th district has to change a good deal in order to accomodate the transition of CA-32 to an Asian plurality district. It sits south of the 32nd, following it as it loops around from the Pico Rivera area through La Habra and Brea in Orange County, and through Chino Hills in San Bernadino County in order to cross back into LA and get to Pomona. At Pomona, it expands further North and West into predominantly white areas (like Claremont) that voted for Obama. The Latino percentage drops more than one might like, but Latinos still make up a strong 58% majority of the district that will be a dominant political force, and with time that majority will increase. The drop also enables the 26th to have a strong 63% Latino majority. This district definitely gets more Republican, but I am not sure precisely how much. I estimate it is something close to D+10 now.

CA-39

Incumbent:	Linda Sanchez (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+9
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	62% Obama, D+9
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	18% White, 65% Latino
New District Demographics:	20% White, 63% Latino

CA-39 now extends into Orange County, where it picks up 3/7 of the district in the Buena Park/Anaheim area. But the section of Orange County that is added is 40% Latino, 20% Asian, and voted for Obama. The area of LA County retained, which stretches all the way to Southgate, is heavily Latino and heavily Democratic. So the change should have relatively little political effect, with the district becoming maybe a few points more GOP friendly. Linda Sanchez’s district also now borders with her sister’s district (CA-47).

CA-40

Incumbent:	?Ed Royce? (R), ?John Campbell? (R) ?David Dreier? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+8
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	52% Obama, R+1
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	42% White, 18% Asian, 34% Latino
New District Demographics:	43% White, 15% Asian, 35% Latino

The new CA-40 retains only a small portion of its old constituents around Anaheim. CA-40 has a very sinuous shape because it is an attempt to hobble together one last winnable Democratic district out of the leftovers from neighboring districts with inflexible shapes (because they are majority minority or are made as heavily GOP as possible). From Irvine, the 40th reaches north through Anaheim, and then through a verynarrow strip of Yorba Linda to cross into San Bernadino County, where it includes Chino, Montclair, and Upland. Most precincts in this district voted for Obama, although not by huge margins. Areas of Democratic strength are Irvine, Anaheim, and Montclair. Areas of GOP strength are included as well, including Upland and Lake Forest at the far Northern and Southern edges of the distict. This district is more a swing district than a Democratic district, but with its large minority population it can probably be expected to continue trending Democratic. Theoretically this is Ed Royce’s district, but he does not live in it any more, and as mentioned earlier it is very different. It bears more in common with the 48th, and GOPer John Campbell lives in this district (in Irvine). But Campbell might rather try his luck in the new 48th or attempt to prevail in a GOP primary in the 44th rather than run here.

CA-41

Incumbent:	Jerry Lewis (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+10
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	53% Obama, D+0
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	55% White, 6% Black, 33% Latino
New District Demographics:	40% White, 11% Black, 39% Latino

CA-41 contracts entirely within San Bernadino County due to population growth. At first blush, this might seem to be a good thing for Jerry Lewis, because the San Bernadino portion of his district voted more strongly for McCain than the Riverside county portion. But within San Bernadino county, there are some substantial shifts. Conservative areas around Hesperia are shorn off and given to the Pasadena-Burbank based 29th district, and the 41st expands into strongly Democratic San Bernadino city (about half of the district’s population), taking most of the city except the heavily Latino south-west of the city, which remains in the 43rd to maintain the Latino percentage in CA-43 high.

This causes the white population percentage of the district to plummet 15 points to 40%, with about equal parts of the drop made up for with increased Black and Latino populations. Moreover the white voters in the district become more progressive as the population center shifts towards the City of San Bernadino. In the short term, the doubling of the African American population is more politically significant than the Latino increase, because of higher turnout and greater Democratic support than Latinos. But over the long term, the Latino population is likely to drive a continuing Democratic trend as turnout increases. It is at least conceivable that Lewis could survive in the short term in this district, but if he does, he’ll have great difficulty continuing to hold it. But this district is more a swing district than a Democratic district, and probably gave Obama about 53%, which could be off by a few points either way. This district would have a good chance of electing a progressive San Bernadino Democrat, especially after a few more years of Latino population growth.

CA-42

Incumbent:	None
Previous District PVI:	R+10
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	58% Obama, D+5
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	48% White, 2% Black, 17% Asian, 29% Latino
New District Demographics:	32% White, 7% Black, 6% Asian, 51% Latino

CA-42 disappears from Orange County and reappears in Riverside County. This district consists of the city of Riverside, Perris and parts of Corona and Moreno Valley. This new district has nothing in common with the old 42nd, and most of the district is carved out of the Riverside County portion of the old CA-44. It also has no real incumbent (Ken Calvert lives in Corona, but would almost certainly much prefer to run in the heavily GOP 44th, where he would be well positioned to win the GOP primary).

CA-43

Incumbent:	Joe Baca (Blue Dog D)
Previous District PVI:	D+13
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	17% White, 65% Latino
New District Demographics:	23% White, 62% Latino

CA-44 shifts slightly to the west, away from the city of San Bernadino and into Rancho Cucamonga, making it just slightly more Republican. But Baca is in no trouble, and his district retains a strong Latino majority.

CA-44

Incumbent:	?Ken Calvert? (R) ?Darrell Issa? (R), ?Gary Miller? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+6
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	41% Obama, R+12
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	44% White, 42% Latino
New District Demographics:	60% White, 25% Latino

CA-44 is another one of the few, the proud, the California GOP districts. It combines McCain’s best parts of Orange County (stretching through the North-East of OC, from eastern Anaheim to San Clemente) with some more GOP areas in Riverside County – Norco, part of Corona, Lake Elsinore, and Hemet.

CA-45

Incumbent:	Mary Bono (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+3
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	55% Obama, D+2
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	42% White, 45% Latino
New District Demographics:	35% White, 51% Latino

CA-45 has to contract due to population growth. It does this by giving up GOP Hemet, while keeping Moreno Valley. This makes a district that Obama won as it was just a bit more Democratic, making it just a bit more difficult for Mary Bono to survive here and actually more sensible geographically as well. CA-45 now has a slight Latino majority, which should continue to make CA-45 more Democratic. Bono faces the choice of struggling to hold on in an increasingly Democratic district, retiring and moving to Florida, or losing the GOP primary in CA-52.

CA-46

Incumbent:	Dana Rohrabacher (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+3
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	60% Obama, D+7
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	59% White, 18% Asian, 18% Latino
New District Demographics:	50% White, 10% Asian, 29% Latino

CA-46 is changed dramatically. The LA County part of the district is altered to become much more Democratic, while the Orange County bit stays pretty competitive. Just under half of the population in CA-46 is now in Los Angeles County, now taking in most of Long Beach. In Orange County, CA-46 stretches along the coast until it gets to Newport Beach and then inland to Aliso Viejo/Laguna Niguel/Laguna Hills, where it most of the districts’ Orange County population base now lives. CA-37 has more of Rohrabacher’s old constituents, but he does not have any chance at winning there, and he does not have much chance of continuing to win in this new 46th district either.

CA-47

Incumbent:	Loretta Sanchez (Blue Dog D)
Previous District PVI:	D+4
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	60% Obama, D+7
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	12% White, 16% Asian, 69% Latino
New District Demographics:	15% White, 15% Asian, 65% Latino

CA-47 changes little from the existing district, only really changing by adding all of Santa Anna. It becomes slightly less Latino and a bit more white, but only about a point more Republican. CA-47 is now the only district contained entirely within Orange County.

CA-48

Incumbent:	?John Campbell? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+6
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	52% Obama, R+1
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	61% White, 17% Asian, 18% Latino
New District Demographics:	44% White, 19% Asian, 29% Latino

CA-48 is something of a gerrymandered monstrosity, stretching thinly all the way from Santa Margarita in the eastern part of Orange County all the way to South-Central LA around Lynwood. 4/7 of the population is in Orange County, and that part of the district is demographically quite similar to the current 48th but a bit more Republican. The rest of the district, in LA County, is only 23% white, is carved mostly out of the old 39th, and is strongly Democratic. The result is a swing district that probably voted for Obama, but not by that much.

CA-49

Incumbent:	?Darrell Issa? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+10
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	51% Obama, R+2
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	52% White, 35% Latino
New District Demographics:	54% White, 34% Latino

CA-49 is an attempt to squeeze one last winnable district out of San Diego County, after drawing 3 safely Democratic districts (CA-50, CA-51, and CA-53), and one extremely Republican district (CA-52). It is Darrell Issa’s district, but because substantial portions of the heavily GOP 52nd come from his old district, there is a good chance he would run there instead – where he would be in a good position to beat Duncan Hunter the younger in a GOP primary. The vast majority of the population is based in San Diego County, including Carlsbad, Vista, and Oceanside. Parts of Encinitas and Escondido are also included. To the north, all of Camp Pendleton is included, and then CA-49 crosses into Orange County, picking up competitive to Democratic leaning areas along a sliver of the coast, running up to Laguna Beach (only 10% of the district is in Orange County, though). This district is something of a hedge – if the swing to Obama in the San Diego area was merely a one time event, especially around Camp Pendleton (a one time Iraq War effect?), this district will likely stay Republican. But if it is a continuing trend, Democrats will have a good shot at picking this district up.

CA-50

Incumbent:	?Brian Bilbray? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+3
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	57% Obama, D+4
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	60% White, 22% Latino
New District Demographics:	61% White, 15% Latino

All but a small portion of CA-50 is dragged within the city limits of San Diego (with the remainder in the Democratic Del Mar/Solana Beach/Encinitas area). The most Republican parts of the district are excised and donated to CA-52, while some relatively swingy areas in the north go to the 49th. Given the close races Bilbray has run in the past, a strong Democratic candidate should have a very good chance of defeating him in this district.

CA-51

Incumbent:	Bob Filner (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+8
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	62% Obama, D+9
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	17% White, 60% Latino
New District Demographics:	18% White, 58% Latino

CA-51 stays basically the same, but becomes marginally more Republican as it adds population (although the PVI gets more Democratic, the Obama vote decreases because there was a large swing to Obama from Bush). Filner will have no difficulty here against the GOP. It’s possible he might one day face a Latino primary challenger, but this is after all a Latino majority district.

CA-52

Incumbent:	?Duncan Hunter Jr?, (R) ?Darrell Issa?, (R) ?Brian Bilbray? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+9
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	38% Obama, R+15
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	63% White, 22% Latino
New District Demographics:	73% White, 17% Latino

The new CA-52 is 2/3 in San Diego county and 1/3 in South-West Riverside County. It takes the most heavily Republican precincts it can find in the area, resulting in a very very conservative district. The question is not whether it will elect a Republican, but which Republican will win the GOP primary – it takes GOP heavy parts from CA-45, CA-49, CA-50, and CA-52. It may well actually be even more Republican than I estimated it was (38% Obama).

CA-53

Incumbent:	Susan Davis (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+14
New District estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	51% White, 30% Latino
New District Demographics:	46% White, 35% Latino

CA-53 stretches to the east, adding competitive areas from CA-52, so that CA-50 can stretch down further into Democratic San Diego. It becomes a bit more Republican in order to make CA-50 a bit more Democratic.

That’s all, folks!

If you liked this diary, do me a favor and contact your Representative and Senators and tell them to support strong Health Care Reform. A strong public option, no trigger, no opt-in, no opt-out. Strong subsidies to make the mandate affordable, open the exchange to everyone, and for crying out loud there’s no reason we should have to wait all the way until 2013 to have it go into effect!

In Kansas, redistricting is controlled by the state legislature, with the Governor having veto power. By far the most likely political scenario is that in 2010,  Republicans will have a huge advantage in the state Senate (currently 31-9) and a big one in the state House (currently 76-49) and likely a new Governor in conservative Republican Sam Brownback (ugh) unless Democrats find a miracle candidate to take him on.

But one-party control has its downsides: namely, a long-running split between the party’s hardcore conservatives and its moderates, who regularly side with Democrats to either make mischief or enact good policy, depending on your point of view. It plays out in the legislature regularly, and in the congressional seats occasionally.

The most recent example is the 2nd District’s Nancy Boyda, a Democrat who knocked out the very conservative Jim Ryun in 2006, 51-47. “Moderate” Lynn Jenkins edged out Ryun in the 2008 Republican primaries and was able to bring enough Republicans back into the fold to defeat Boyda 51-46.

Here’s the thing: If (conservative) Brownback is elected Governor in 2010, the last thing he’ll want to do in 2011-2012 is a pick a fight with legislators over redistricting.  

A Gov. Brownback (ugh) will have his hands full pushing through a conservative agenda over the feisty moderates (whose main base, suburban Johnson County, is going to get quite a few more seats regardless). Moderate Republicans and Democrats share a lot of redistricting aims–they want competitive seats, basically. Make seats too heavily Republican and conservatives will take over, too heavily Democratic…well, that’s not really a possibility in Kansas.

Overall, Kansans do tend to be fairly civic-minded about redistricting and don’t do obvious gerrymanders, using fairly balanced “select committees” of legislators to do the grunt work. Finally, legislators also put maintaining the core of existing districts into the redistricting guidelines for last time, so I’d bet that’s likely to show up again.

The Big First – District One – map color: blue [irony alert!] – The person in this seat basically has a space waiting for them on the Agriculture Committee. And it will be the person who wins the Republican primary for this open seat in 2010. This district is about as red and rural as it gets–and like many rural areas, it’s bleeding population.  

Adds: bits of Geary & Nemaha, all of Riley  

Loses: Pratt, Barber, Waubaunsee, the rest of Greenwood

Old PVI: R+23

New PVI: R+22

District Two – Lynn Jenkins (R) – map color: green – At PVI+9, it’s already the 2nd most Dem district (tells you something about KS right there), but there’s nowhere else to put the rest of liberal Lawrence now that the 3rd district has grown too populous for it. Based on Moore’s 2008 numbers here, that’s a net of about 13,000 votes in the D column flooding the district (with 27000 votes total and a 71-24 split). Jenkins beat Boyda by 13,500 votes in 2008. D’oh.

The only help Republicans can offer is tinkering around the edges–taking out Topeka would be the only way to really affect the composition and that’s out of the question from several standpoints. It’s just unfortunate for the Great White Dope that her district completely surrounds the fastest-growing and bluest one in the state. That said, moderate Republicans should (at least in theory) love this district. They might still be able to edge out an incumbent Democrat (barely), but a conservative could be defeated in a general election.

Adds: the rest of Douglas County (net 13000 D), Wabaunsee (net 1300 R), Montgomery (net 5000 R)

Loses: Riley (net 1000 R), Coffey (net 1400 R), Woodson (net 500 R), Wilson (net 1300 R)

Old PVI: R+9

New PVI: R+5

District Three – Dennis Moore (D) – map color: purple – Even if Republicans wanted to get rid of the delegation’s sole Democrat, it would be nearly impossible. To do it, you’d have to move out both Douglas & Wyandotte counties and then tack on a dozen or so rural ones. Not really a “community of interests” between the state’s richest, most populous suburban county and slew of relatively poor rural counties.

So instead, the district drops the rest of Douglas and picks up a few sparsely-populated (for now) bits of Miami County. It’s enough to shift the PVI needle a few clicks to the right, but not enough to dislodge Moore, who won Johnson County 51-45 and Wyandotte 75-21. Still, a moderate Republican could definitely pick up this seat if the 63-year-old Moore retires. Then again, so could a Democrat.

Old PVI: R+3

New PVI: R+5

District Four – map color: red – Centered on the slow-growing Wichita metro area, the Fightin’ Fourth has to add a few rural counties and becomes a bit redder. Even if state Rep. Raj Goyle can pull off an upset in 2010 in the open seat race here, he’ll be even harder-pressed to win here after redistricting.

Adds: Coffey, Woodson, Wilson, Pratt, Barber

Loses: Montgomery

Old PVI: R+14

New PVI: R+15

Final score: Two seats that a moderate Republican or Democrat could possibly win, and two seats they almost certainly couldn’t.  

Here is a bipartisan redistricting of Alabama with a slight Democratic lean. My goal was to keep the representation at 4-3 Republican. I know Bobby Bright is a Conservative blue dog so I gave him a heavily Black district. This should make his voting record more Liberal or a Black candidate could easily challenge him in a primary and win. At the same time, I kept Artur Davis’s district majority Black to protect his sucessor if he vacates his seat to run against Richard Shelby. I thought a 4-3 Democratic map would be too risky and too grotesquely gerrymandered. As for the four Republicans, they are all safer than they used to be, including Mike Rogers. I had to make some sacrifices but I thought it would be better if we had 2 solid seats and 1 shaky one instead of just one solid seat and two shaky ones. I still was unable to strengthen Griffith because I could not go Cleo Fields and send a finger down to the Black belt. Still, I could not avoid an extremely grotesque gerrymander but there have been worse. Here are the maps:

This link is for the current map of Alabama http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F…

1st District Jo Banner (R) Blue

Yes, this district grows more convoluted. I added Covington, Geneva counties and Houston Counties to the east which are heavily Republican. I removed Monroe County which leans Republican but has some Democratic areas. The main change to this district was sending a finger from Bobby Bright’s district down to Mobile to take in Black precincts. I kept in Republican parts of Mobile so I probably kept Banner’s home in here. I kept his district contiguous by water with Mobile Bay. The courts may object to this district but since it gets more Republican, Banner should be happy. McCain probably won 70% of the vote here, up from 61% in the old district. Demographics are 16% Black and 77% White. Status is Safe Republican.

2nd District Bobby Bright (D) Green

He keeps his Montgomery County home base but besides that, his district completely changes. I removed heavily Republican southeastern Alabama from his district. I replaced it with all of Montgomery County and some Democratic counties currently in the 3rd such as Macon and the 7th such as Dallas. Yes, this district is the culprit of the Mobile County finger. I sent up the finger to Talladega to stregthen the 2nd and 3rd districts for their respective parties. Overall, I wanted to knock down two birds with one stone in this district. Not only would there be another Black majority district in Alabama that was heavily Democratic, Bobby Bright will have a tough time holding onto the seat if a Black candidate challenges him in the primary. Unless Steve Cohen from Memphis decided to move here and run, Bright should probably lose. A possible candidate would be the Liberal Black mayor of Mobile, Sam Jones. He is pretty old but he was also the first Black mayor of Mobile. Overall, this district looks set to change. Obama probably won 67% of the vote here. Demographics are 57% Black and 38% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

3rd District Mike Rogers (R) Purple

To protect the 2nd district, I had to stregthen Rogers because it was impossible to make the 2nd district safe and keep the 3rd vulnerable. Rogers won only 53% of the vote in 2008 against Democrat Joshua Segall so Rogers should be thrilled with the new plan. I made some drastic changes to protect him by removing heavily Democratic Montgomery, Macon and part of Russel Counties. I added heavily Republican counties to the south of the old district. As a bonus, I removed Segall’s home in Montgomery into the 2nd so Rogers now has no strong challenger. Just to shake Rogers up, I removed his home and put it in the 4th district. Overall, I reduced the Black percentage from 33% to 22%, so McCain win to probably 66% of the vote here. Demographics are 22% Black and 72% White. Status is Safe Republican.

4th District Rodney Aderholt (R) Red

I made some minor changes to the district but McCain still crushed Obama here. I removed Cullman and Blount Counties, both areas where residents of Birmingham are moving. More than 70% of the old district’s residents lived in rural areas and more do now. I added Calhoun and Clerburne Counties, both rural and heavily Republican. Those counties explain the makeup of the entire district. McCain probably won 73% of the vote here, a bit lower than the current percentage but not much different. Demographics are 8% Black and 85% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

5th District Parker Griffith (D) Yellow

This was the district that is closest to its current form. I could not move it at all because this was the safest district I could make for Griffith. I hope we can keep him and if he survives 2010, he probably will keep winning. The problem is that in 2008 when he was elected, there was high Black turnout. In 2010, it should be normal unless Artur Davis runs for U.S Senate. Since Blacks are only 17% of the district’s population, they do not make a big impact. I want most blue dogs to become Liberals but Griffith should remain as Conservative as he wants, he is another vote for a Democratic speaker. McCain probably won 61% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black and 74% White. Status is Lean Democrat.

6th District Spencer Baucus (R) Teal

On the most part, I was able to leave Baucus alone. His old district was the most Republican district in the U.S in 2008 and should be even more so. I removed Chilton and Coosa Counties which are Republican but not as Republican as Cullman and Blount Counties which I put into the district. I pushed this district further out of slow growing Jefferson County so overall, I reduced the Black percentage from 11% to 8%. McCain probably won 80% of the vote here. Demographics are 8% Black and 85% White. Status is Safe Republican.

7th District Artur Davis (D) Gray

Davis is currently the only Black member of Congress in Alabama. He may no longer be if he gets the nomination to become Governor in 2010. I feel that no one has viewed Davis as a formidable candidate. He might appeal to some white voters because he is pretty Conservative on a few issues. He could be the Harold Ford of Alabama without the corrupt family background. In Tennessee, Ford lost to moderate (for the South) Republican Bob Corker. Shelby is a Conservative and a turncoat which he probably could not use to his advantage. If Davis can bring Black turnout up to 30%, he would have to win about 30% of the white vote to win. In Alabama, this appears hard to do but Davis has a shot. Back to the district, I barely kept the 7th district majority Black because I had to trade some areas such as Hale County with the 2nd and I took in more of Jefferson County for population purposes. Even with the reduced Obama percentage, I expect Davis or his replacement to win. Obama probably won 59% of the vote here. Demographics are 51% Black and 44% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

This is the second of my Georgia maps. I've already done a Democratic gerrymander.  In this edition, I tried to think like a Georgia Republican (but failed because I'm not that damn crazy or evil).  With the fate of the VRA seemingly in doubt, I went ahead and discounted it, using only the requirements of contiguousness and equal population and political realities in shaping the districts (because there's no way the Republicans could get a 14-0 Georgia delegation short of epic measures).

 My “goals” for this round were:

1. To protect John Linder, who's Gwinnett-based district is rapidly diversifying from black, Hispanic, and Asian growth and taking on some liberal whites as well, as seen in long-term trends toward our side.
2. To ensure the long term (at least to the next round of redistricting) sustainability of the other Republican districts.
3. To make the new district a Republican district.
4. To try to eliminate as many Democrats as possible.
5. To try to avoid primary battles within the Republican Party.
6. To make the districts look as nice as possible.

I think I achieved these goals with the following districts:

Metro Atlanta:

The major non-Atlanta regional population centers (Athens, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, and Savannah) all get a district to themselves and their surrounding areas, intact, without sharing with another major city.

1st District (Jack Kingston [R] vs. John Barrow [D]) BLUE
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

The first of the Republican pickups comes in coastal Georgia.  Chatham County (Savannah) is made whole, putting Jack Kingston and John Barrow in the same district.  Kingston has a decided advantage here.  Of the seventeen counties in the new district, Barrow represents only three, one of which is a major thorn in his side.  He loses his secondary base in the Augusta area and picks up several rural/exurban, white, and VERY Republican counties.  Kingston, on the other hand, has much of his old district intact.  Barrow has struggled before in a far more minority, far more Democratic district.  His ability to survive here is very much in doubt.  His only saving grace would be his fundraising prowress.

2nd District (Sanford Bishop [D]) GREEN
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 51.4% white | 44.8% black | .3% Native American | .6% Asian | 3.5% Hispanic | .1% other

With the 2nd, I essentially pushed the district over, cutting Bishop off from his secondary base in the Columbus area and instead moving the district east, taking up large swarths of white, Republican, rural areas.

3rd District (Lynn Westmoreland [R]) PLUM
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

4th District (Hank Johnson [D]) RED
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 35.8% white | 53.5% black | .4% Native American | 4.3% Asian | 8.5% Hispanic | 0% other

5th District (John Lewis [D]) YELLOW
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 37% white | 56.1% black | .2% Native American | 2.2% Asian | 6.1% Hispanic | 0% other

6th District (Tom Price [R]) TEAL
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 85.6% white | 7% black | .2% Native American | 4% Asian | 4.5% Hispanic | .1% other

The loss of parts of North Fulton and Cherokee to sure up Linder next door and the fact that some parts of the district are shaky (North DeKalb and Sandy Springs) necesitated moving the 6th down into the white, Republican parts of Atlanta on the northside.  Short of something major, Price should be okay

7th District (John Linder [R]) GRAY
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

8th District (Jim Martin [D]) PERIWINKLE
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

9th District (Open [R-held]) CYAN
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: 84% white | 4% black | 0% Native American | 0% Asian | 9% Hispanic | 0% Other
Old District: 82.5% white | 13.7% black | .3% Native American | 1.2% Asian | 2.6% Hispanic | .1% other

In the four maps I've made for Georgia, I always have trouble with the Nineth because we don't yet know who's going to be the Congressman.  The map I made tries to put the all of the potential candiates into the district (sans State Rep. Bobby Reese, who entered after I made this map and who doesn't lIVe in the current district anyways).  The new district has the same general shape but sheds all of Forsyth, Lumpkin, Union, White Counties, as well as about 45% of Hall County (done to keep the Tenth from getting too mishapen.  In return, it gains all of Chattooga County, the parts of Gordon County originally in the Eleventh, and the Northern parts of Bartow and Floyd Counties.  In sum, it becomes more rural. 

10th District (Paul Broun [R]) HOT PINK
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

11th District (Phil Gingrey [R]) ACID GREEN
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

12th District (NEW SEAT) POWDER BLUE
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

13th District (David Scott [D]) SALMON
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

14th District (NEW SEAT) OLIVE
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

I think a lesson to take from this is that ostensible communities of interest and clean lines making geometric districts can really fuck us over and an unwillingness to cross political and geographic boundaries can really kill us.

The most likely redistricting scenario for 2010 is one in which Democrats control the House, Senate and Governor’s office in Colorado. The Governor’s office is the only one where there seems like there might be a problem. Mostly because Bill Ritter is no lock for re-election.

But the Democrats are in pretty solid (though not impregnable) control of the legislative branch at this point. They’re up 38-27 in the CO House and up 21-14 in the Senate. Thanks to partisan battlin’, redistricting last time around was, as the kids say, a hot mess.

Presumably, this time should be smoother and as long as the Democrats don’t do any overly-obvious gerrymandering that risks a political backlash, they’ll be fine. I would think that no hugely obvious changes in the composition of the delegation, currently 5-2 in favor of Dems, would do the trick on that front, even if they subtly manipulate the districts to their advantage. A gentle gerrymander, if you will….follow along for that!

CD-1 Diana DeGette (D) – Dark Blue

Her district shifts very slightly around the periphery, but largely remains the same–Denver-centric and safely Democratic, as one would expect for the dean of the delegation. For the record, Colorado has quite a young delegation…DeGette was elected in 1996, but John Salazar, the next most experienced, was only elected in 2004.

CD-2 Jared Polis (D) – Green

His district loses its last bits of Weld County and its liberal ski towns as it shifts south and grabs Golden, Wheat Ridge and the rest of Arvada. It’s slightly more conservative, perhaps, but not by too much–its liberal Boulder center pushes left on the suburban areas, which aren’t exactly the most conservative parts of the Denver suburbs anyway. The moderately liberal Polis should be fine, and it’s a safely Democratic seat regardless.

CD-3 John Salazar (D) – purple

Adds: Eagle, Summit, Clear Creek, Lake, Chafee

Loses: Jackson, Routt, Moffat, Rio Blanco, Garfield, Custer, Otero, a bit of Mesa County

How to shore up a district that’s basically totally rural without dipping into the votes of the major cities on the Front Range? Two words: ski towns. The new district drops some ranching counties on the periphery while adding overwhelmingly liberal ski-centric counties.

DATA FREAKOUT ALERT!

3rd District adds these counties:

Pitkin: 74-25 Obama (15,000)

Summit: 66-33 Obama (23,500)

Lake: 62-36 Obama (8,000)

Eagle: 61-38 Obama (42,500)

Gilpin: 59-38 Obama  (5,150)

Clear Creek: 58-40 Obama (10,000)

Chaffee: tie  (16,000)

3rd District loses these counties:

Moffat 70-27 McCain (13,000)

Rio Blanco 77-21 McCain (6,000)

Jackson 68-30 McCain (1,500)

Custer 63-35 McCain (3,500)

Otero 55-44 McCain (20,000)

Garfield tie (44,000)

It’s over 100,000 people that will be magically transformed from rather Republican voters into heavily Democratic ones in this district. That should be enough to swing the PVI a good 5 points toward the blue, no? Still not hugely Democratic, but significantly more so.

CD-4 Betsy Markey (D) – Red

Adds: Grand, Jackson, Routt, Moffat, Rio Blanco, Garfield, the rest of Weld County, and a bit more of Boulder County.

Loses: Everything east of Weld County (all of eastern CO, basically)

Markey smashed Marilyn Musgrave by racking up votes in Larimer and Weld counties which overwhelmed the heavily-Republican rural vote (which was about 10%-ish of the district). It’s the same principle in her new district, but with fewer to overwhelm. Plus, the addition of a few more competitive suburban Denver & Boulder voters should anchor it even more firmly. Finally, one of her rural counties is Routt County (Steamboat Springs–awesome ski town!), which went 63-36 for Obama and would be one of her most populous rural counties. So her new district is still swing-ish, but should be somewhat safer.

CD-5 Doug Lamborn (R) – Yellow

Adds Custer, Crowley, Otero counties

Loses Chaffee, Lake and Park

Doug will be fine with this–trading three centrist counties for three conservative ones, plus keeping his Colorado Springs base? What’s not to like for him…and Republicans?

CD-6 Mike Coffman (R) – Turquoise

Gains: Some more of Jefferson County, most of rural eastern Colorado that was formerly Markey’s

Loses: most of Arapahoe

Assuming Mike can survive primary challenges, he should be fine in this safely Republican seat. His seat will change a lot in 2012 under this map, but Republicans should be fans of its new configuration, which makes it well-nigh impossible for Democrats to overcome their registration advantages.

CD-7 Ed Perlmutter (D) – Gray

It’s a similar district in terms of demographics, but it shifts east. Perlmutter should be fine here, and picks up all the remaining fast-growing suburban areas east of Denver. Now about two-thirds white (with 6% Af-Am., 3% Asian, 18% Latin), it’s the second most diverse district after the central-Denver-centric 1st.

—-

There you have it. Three fairly liberal Dem seats (1, 2, 7), two fairly Dem seats (3, 4) districts and two safely Republican ones (5, 6). A gentle gerrymander, if you will.

Johnny Longtorso’s map has similar ideas to this one, and for the record I think he’s an ace redistricter, but I think mine fixes a crucial problem–shoring up Salazar’s district so that a less conservative Democrat could win it. He makes Markey safer than I do, though. So if you want more Colorado redistricting 2010 action, check it out:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

I know this is not very realistic but I decided to go for a 7-4 Democratic plan. Democrats should control at least the State House but it would unlikely if they had total control of everything. Most Republicans would probably like most of the plan except that I weaken Frank Wolf from the 10th district. He claims to be a moderate but he is actually a Conservative. My other main priority was to strengthen all the Democratic incumbents. On a different note, this is the first time in awhile I have asked you which state I should do next. Here are the maps:

Here is a link to the current Congressional map of Virginia: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/a…

1st District (Blue) Robert Whitman (R)

Even if Republicans do not like the plan, they should be happy about this district. I removed all of Prince William County which is trending Democratic quickly. I also removed the slivers of Hampton and Newport News because Obama easily won those two areas. I also removed Caroline, Essex and King and Queen Counties because Obama barely won those counties and I wanted to put them in the 5th district. The new counties in the district were Hanover (which McCain won by 19,000 votes,) Orange and New Kent. The latter two are Republican. Even though the district looks rural, it is mostly concentrated on fast growing Republican suburbs. Stafford and Spotsylvania counties might be marginal in the 2012 presidential election as minorities and voters from D.C move there. Whitman should be safe here in a district where McCain probably won 56% of the vote, up from 51% under the old plan. The demographics are 15% Black (down from 18%) and 76% White. Status is Safe Republican.

2nd District Glenn Nye (D) Green

Nye barely won and Obama barely won the old district too. Even though Nye is a blue dog, a strong Republican could easily unseat him, especially in a year like 2010. So I added all of Hampton and Newport News to the district. Those two cities voted for Obama by a combined 51,000 votes. I may have overprotected Nye by creating a grotesque gerrymander including Black neighborhoods in Virginia Beach and White neighborhoods in Norfolk. The parts of Norfolk I included may not be heavily Democratic. I did at least remove Republican parts of Virginia Beach. Anyway, the district becomes heavily Democratic while the 3rd district is still majority Black. The only problem is that 3rd district Congressman Bobby Scott’s home is in the district. Since the 3rd contains most of his old territory, he could just run there and be safe. Obama probably won 61% of the vote here. The demographics are 34% Black, 5% Hispanic and 54% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

3rd District Bobby Scott (D) Purple

The district changes a bit and no longer jumps over the river. It loses all of Hampton and Newport News while scooping up every Black precinct on the southern bank of the James River. Most of the new precincts are from the current 4th district. Also, the 3rd drops Republican New Kent County while extending an arm into Hopewell which leans Democratic and Petersburg where Obama won 89% of the vote. Besides these changes, I added a few more precincts in Richmond City and Henrico County. I also added some in Chesterfield County which had high Black turnout but McCain still won it. Basically, all the new additions came in here so I could strengthen the 4th district. With these small changes, Scott should be safe. Obama probably won 75% of the vote here. Demographics are 55% Black and 36% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

4th District Randy Forbes (R) Red

I mentioned this map would be a gerrymander. I definitely made this district convoluted even though it is nothing compared to (you can probably figure that out.) Still, I kept in most of Chesapeake where Forbes lives. Since the 3rd district and the 5th took away all the heavily Black precincts, I sent this district west to take away Republican areas in the 5th and 9th districts. The district has a long string along the Virginia/North Carolina border to a clump of Republican counties formerly in the 5th and 9th districts. I see no reason for Forbes to complain unless he wanted a more compact district. Since I reduced the Black population from 33% to 20%, Forbes should be safe. McCain probably won 59% of the vote here. Demographics are 20% Black and 72% White. Status is Safe Republican.

5th District Tom Perrillio (D) Yellow

First, I am sorry about this extremely convoluted gerrymander that should not be on this map. I do not see Republicans objecting to it because it helps shore up possibly endangered incumbents such as Whitman, Forbes and Cantor. The district’s new changes include a finger into the old 1st district to take some Democratic areas. The district then goes toward Richmond. The last major change was extending the district up to Rappahannock County which is 83% White but Democratic Senator Jim Webb still carried it in 2006. What is amazing is that Black percentage remains stagnant. The areas the district picks up such as Harrisonburg in the Shenandoah Valley are filled with white Democrats. Perrillio should face a major challenge in 2010 but if he survives, this plan will protect him. Obama probably won 54% of the vote here. Demographics are 23% Black and 69% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

6th District Bob Goodlatte (R) Teal

This district stays mostly the same in area. Goodlatte keeps the Shenandoah Valley and loses Democratic areas in it such as Harrisonburg and part of Roanoke. Just to shake him up, I took his home out but since this district contains most of his old territory, he would probably pick it. I gave him some Republican counties in the current 9th district. The biggest change I made was moving this district closer to D.C. I gave him most of Fauquier County which used to be in the 1st district. I even gave him a slice of Prince William County. D.C politicians might complain but Goodlatte will not. The area I gave him is pretty Republican. The only problem I see for him is that Deeds might take a run at this district if he loses the gubernatorial election. The 6th district contains most of his old State Senate district. He could run it close but would probably lose by about ten points because I do not see Republicans in the northern part of the district backing Deeds. I will give Deeds a better chance if he performs extremely well in rural areas during the gubernatorial election. In other cases, Goodlatte should be safe. McCain probably won 62% of the vote here. Demographics are 5% Black and 89% White, the whitest district in Virginia. Status is Likely Republican if Deeds runs, Safe Republican if Deeds does not.

7th district Eric Cantor (R) Gray

Unlike Goodlatte, Cantor keeps his home in his district but the rest of his territory is switched. I split his old territory with the 1st and 5th districts. Most of his new territory was Republican parts of the 4th and the 5th. The reason I took Republican areas away from the 4th was for population purposes. I know this is gerrymandered but as long as he has a safe district, Republicans and Cantor should not complain. McCain probably won 55% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black and 74% White. Status is Safe Republican.

8th District Jim Moran (D) Purple (in the north)

I kept most of Arlington and all of Alexandria in the district. The main changes I made were taking out the thin corridor that heads to Reston in northwestern Fairfax County. I sent Moran’s district to western Fairfax County to take in some territory that is mixed. Obama probably pulled even in the western part but Arlington and Alexandria should save Moran from any trouble. The close in suburbs should help make this district heavily Democratic. Obama probably won 65% of the vote here. Demographics are 10% Black, 16% Hispanic, 14% Asian and 55% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

9th District Rick Boucher (D) Light Blue

This district mostly remained unchanged after most redistricting. I decided to change that. I put some heavily Republican counties into the 6th district. The only spot of worry is that I slipped in Roanoke which votes Democratic but Goodlatte lives there. Again, I am assuming Goodlatte would not want to risk a run against Boucher when Goodlatte could easily win the 6th. The Republicans may field someone else but that candidate would have a poor chance of beating Boucher. McCain probably won 56% of the vote here, down from 59% in the old district. Demographics are 8% Black and 86% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

10th District Frank Wolf (R) Pink

His district is 69% White so it appears unchanged at a first glance from its current form. Wolf’s problem is that many of those white voters are Liberals. His old district contained many white voters from the Conservative Shenandoah Valley. I will admit I did not give him much new territory. I did, however take out all of the Shenandoah Valley. The only Conservative areas are Clarke County and part of Fauquier County. I kept most of his old territory in the district with all of Loudon County and northern Fairfax County. He is probably entrenched there. Still, he should lose because I added Vienna, Reston, Falls Church and about half of Arlington. Those areas combined probably gave Obama a combined 40,000 vote margin. Also knowing that Wolf’s old territory he keeps voted for Obama, Wolf is in trouble. Brian Moran, Jim Moran’s brother might run here as a comeback after his failed Gubernatorial primary run earlier this year. With his brother’s support, Brian Moran would crush Wolf in Fairfax County and that should offset anything from Loudon County. Obama probably won 58% of the vote here. Demographics are 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 69% White. Status is Likely/Lean Democrat, depending on the challengers.

11th District Gerry Connelly (D) Light Green

This district shrank in size like the 10th due to large population gains. I sent this district to the Alexandria border and kept it out of the Republican western Prince William County. I also added Manassas and the surrounding area which Obama won. I cut out central Fairfax County due to population constraints. Another change was adding Democratic parts of Stafford County which Obama may turn blue in 2012. Overall, this district now easily protects Connelly. Obama probably won 60% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black, 17% Hispanic, 9% Asian and 52% White. Status is Safe Democrat.  

Using Dave’s Application, I have drawn a redistricting plan for Oregon.  The state will either keep the current five seats or may gain one seat in 2012.  This plan is drawn for six seats.  I have seen several other proposals for a six-seat Oregon plan; however, those plans were either quite gerrymandered and/or were drawn to elect four Democrats and two Republicans.

In this plan, the districts are very compact and the plan is designed to elect five Democrats and one Republican.  County lines are used as the demarcation for districts to the fullest extent possible.

MAPS:

DISCUSSION OF DISTRICTS:

District 1 – Portland and Coastal Oregon

New district: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (current district: Obama 61%, McCain 36%)

David Wu lives in Portland, and about 45% of his new district is in Multnomah County.  He currently represents areas of west Portland.  Additional parts of Portland are added (a southern area currently a part of OR-5, and parts of north and northeast Portland currently a part of OR-3).  The remainder of the new district includes Columbia and Clatsop Counties, which Wu also currently represents, as well as all of Oregon’s other coastal counties (Tillamook, Lincoln, Coos and Curry), coastal communities of two inland counties (Florence in Lane Co. and Reedsport in Douglas Co.), and Josephine Co. in southern Oregon.  The Democratic percentage goes up a notch, and Wu is set to go.

District 2 – eastern Oregon

New district: Obama 41%, McCain 56% (current district: Obama 43%, McCain 54%)

This district is designed to remain the one Republican district in the state.  The new district includes 18 counties in their entirety (17 voted for McCain, while Obama won Wasco with 52%) as well as the most GOP parts of Clackamas County.  The incumbent, Greg Walden, lives in Hood River, but that 64% Obama county is no longer in the district.  The Republican percentage here goes up a notch.

District 3 – Portland and environs

New district: Obama 70%, McCain 28% (current district: Obama 71%, McCain 26%)

Earl Blumenauer’s Portland-based district remains largely intact.  67% of the new district is in Multnomah, while the rest includes all of Hood River Co. and part of Clackamas (the southern boundary of the new OR-3 in Clackamas corresponds very closely to the current southern boundary of OR-3).  The Democratic percentage goes down ever so slightly, but remains at a very comfortable 70% Obama level.

District 4 – Eugene and southern Oregon

New district: Obama 54%, McCain 43% (current district: Obama 54%, McCain 43%)

The new OR-4 contains Lane, Douglas and Jackson Counties, almost in their entirety.  The only discrepancy is that coastal communities in Lane and Douglas become part of OR-1 — this works out perfectly in terms of making each district equal in population and also in terms of keeping all coastal communities together.  Btw, does anybody know why coastal communities like Florence and Reedsport are part of otherwise inland counties, it doesn’t seem to fit the pattern of other coastal areas in Oregon which form their own counties, but I’m sure there are historical reasons (?)  The new district is almost exactly the same as the current one in terms of partisanship (and just like the current OR-4, went barely for John Kerry in 2004).  Not sure if Peter DeFazio is running for re-election, but if he does, he is set to go.  If not, other Democrats should be very competitive here.

District 5 – Salem and Willamette Valley

New district: Obama 54%, McCain 43% (current district: Obama 54%, McCain 43%)

The new district includes Marion, Benton and Polk Counties in their entirety as well as suburban parts of Clackamas Co. south of Portland (Lake Oswego, West Linn, Oregon City and Canby home of incumbent Kurt Schrader).  The new district is exactly the same as the current one in terms of political preference.

District 6 – Washington and Yamhill Counties

New district: Obama 58%, McCain 39% (current district does not exist)

The new OR-6 corresponds almost perfectly to Washington and Yamhill Counties.  To make the population perfectly equal, two precincts in Multnomah are added.  Apparently this area has experienced high population growth over the last decade, and if Oregon gains a seat in 2012, it can easily be drawn here.  The new district, if created here, would be one that is quite Democratic.  The territory here is currently represented by David Wu, but the new OR-1 is designed for him; not sure who could run in the new OR-6 (?).

That’s my plan for Oregon.  As always, I welcome comments and suggestions.  Thanks.

This is my first redistricting diary. I’ve used Dave’s redistricting before for other states; I’ve just never cared to post it. I chose to do Massachusetts, which is poised to lose one seat in 2010. Barring a Republican win at the state house (which is increasingly unlikely with the candidacy of Tim Cahill), Democrats should be able to push through a liberal gerrymander. Here were my goals:

1. Take out Stephen Lynch: Lynch is the very definition of a DINO. He represents a D+11 district, but votes like a Blue Dog. I don’t know a single progressive in Massachusetts that doesn’t have sweet  dreams about primarying him.

2. Make sure that all representatives continue to live in the district they represent: This, I knew, would be hard, considering that 4 representatives live in Middlesex county alone, but it remained important to maintain the Democratic machine

3. Make the state look less gerrymandered: This, for reasons described above would also be hard, but I hoped that I could, at the very least, make my map look better than this:

4. Give Boston a compact district: Just personal, for me. I want the best city in the country to basically have a district all to itself

Here’s what I came up with:

State Map:

Boston area:

District 1-Blue-John Olver(D): I know that others who have redistricted MA decided to take out Olver, because of his age, but, again, my goal is to send Lynch packing.  This district loses some territory in Berkshire and Worcester, but gains in Middlesex and Norfolk (this was to allow other representatives to eat up Lynch’s strongholds in center-east Norfolk). Olver retains his home base in Amherst (assuming he runs). Looks a little gerrymandered, but it isn’t too bad, in my opinion.

District 2-Green- Richard Neal(D): This district just changed to take in more population. Gains territory from District 1 in Berkshire and Worceter.

District 3-Purple-Jim McGovern(D): Out of all the districts, this one probably looks the most gerrymandered. I had to make sure that McGovern kept his home base in Worceter (the city) while still gaining most of Frank’s territory in Bristol  (so that Frank was free to eat up the bulk of Lynch strongholds). McGovern will be very happy with this district, since he’ll probably be even safer than he was before (if that’s even possible)

District 4-Red-Barney Frank(D): Yeah, I know, Frank isn’t going to exactly be thrilled about this district, but I had to make do. He loses strongholds in exchange for Lynch territory (which is obviously less progressive) in Norfolk. But he retains his home in Newton and a stronghold in Taunton, and he also picks up territory in the city of Brockton, which is decently progressive. Frank’s margins may go down, but it won’t be my much. He’ll be fine.

Note: Theoretically, since this district contains a lot of his old strongholds, Lynch could run here, but I doubt he’d want to go head up against Frank.

District 5-Yellow-Niki Tsongas(D): Not much going on here, really. Tsongas loses some territory in Essex and gains some in Middlesex, at the expense of Markey. Her margins shouldn’t change at all, and she ratains her base in Lowell.

District 6-Turquoise-John Tierney(D): I decided to make this more compact, putting almost all of it in Essex. I did, however, have to give Tierney the town of Melrose to avoid splitting Methuen between two districts and retain population equality. Looks a bit prettier than before, and Tierney should have an easier time when he is essentially responsible for one county.

District 7-Gray-Edward Markey(D): This will be the Boston suburb district. It contains every town and city adjacent to Boston except for Newton (where Frank lives) and Somerville (where Capuano lives). Markey keeps his home in Malden, and should be happier with this more compact district

District 8-Light Purple-Stephen Lynch (D) vs. Michael Capuano (D): This district contains all of Boston, as well as Capuano’s home in Somerville and a small bit of Norfolk. I’m hoping that something like this will put Lynch in a rage, since he loses all of his old district in the moderate parts of Norfolk and Plymouth and now has to deal with the entire city of Boston. Given that this is urban and the most liberal district in the state (indeed, it would rank pretty high nationwide, I’d imagine), I’d expect Capuano to be favored on his merits (he should also win the labor backing), though things could get interesting if Lynch is still ahead in the money column. Another thing: at only 53% white, this district is almost minority-majority, and could very well be in a decade or so.

District 9-Teal-Bill Delahunt(D): I knew that Lynch might try to be clever and run in this district with this map (even though he lives in Boston), so I had Frank’s district take up as much of Norfolk as possible. Now this district is just Quincy (Delahunt’s home base), a small bit of Lynch’s old territory, and the Cape, where Lynch isn’t accustomed to.

[Update 10/13 3:41 PDT: the Hispanic data for California, Kentucky and Wisconsin was incorrect. I’ve now uploaded the correct data. Thanks to CalifornianInTexas and nico for noticing.]

Now in Daves Redistricting!

My time coming, any day, don’t worry about me, no

…

California, preaching on the burning shore

California, I’ll be knocking on the golden door

Like an angel, standing in a shaft of light

Rising up to paradise, I know, I’m gonna shine

I added the data for California to the server last night. I had to make a little modification to the code to handle the new format for block group data. Both these states use block groups because no shapefiles for voting districts were provided to the Census Bureau.

Warning: for California, the Assign Old CDs operation took 10 minutes on my desktop machine (3 year old dual core AMD chip, 2.2GHz chip speed, 2GB RAM, Windows XP — CPU bound operation). But it works!

I haven’t totally verified that everything is correct, but the population numbers look right and the assigned old CDs look reasonably close.

[Updated] All states with more than 1 CD are now supported. (OK and RI fixed!)

Enjoy!

Hey everyone, there haven’t been as many redistricting diaries lately, so I thought I’d make one for Virginia, since it’s a state that’s very close to home for me and has seen some big changes recently.

The first thing I did was I assigned all of the precincts in the state 4 colors (Blue for Obama over 56%, Green for Obama under 36%, Purple for McCain under 56%, and Red for McCain over 56%. I figure this would give a good visual representation of VA’s electorate and make things easier for me or anyone else.

This allowed me to do some stats on the entirety of all strong-Obama, weak-Obama, Strong McCain, and weak-McCain precincts in the entire state. Here’s what I came up with:

39.95% of all Virginians (or 3,104,205 people) live in precincts that went strongly for Obama.

13.73% of all Virginians (or 1,066,544 people) live in precincts that went weakly for Obama.

12.26% of all Virginians (or 952,461 people) live in precincts that went weakly for McCain.

34.06% of all Virginians (or 2,645,879 people) live in precincts that went strongly for McCain.

Aggregating votes using winner-take-all precincts gives Obama a win of 53.68%.

For strong Obama precincts, the racial stats were: 48% white, 31% black, 7% Asian, and 10% hispanic.

For weak Obama precincts, the racial stats were: 68% white, 15% black, 7% Asian, and 7% hispanic.

For weak McCain precincts, the racial stats were: 75% white, 14% black, 3% Asian, 4% hispanic.

For strong McCain precincts, the racial stats were: 85% white, 8% black, 1% Asian, 2% hispanic.

Now, since congressional districts are assigned based on precincts, I decided that the strong precincts represent the base number that a party should have. Thus, the Democrats should have 39% of the Congressional seats, and the Republicans 34%. The weak precincts in between represent the areas where manipulation through gerrymandering are most effective. Thus, if the Democrats controlled redistricting, a “safe” map for them to draw would consist of 7 Democratic seats and 4 Republican seats ((1-.3406)(11 districts))=7.25. The same goes for the Republicans, who are more likely to control redistricting ((1-.3995)(11 districts))=6.60. One could gerrymander beyond this, but not without introducing some serious partisan territory into their districts that could make them vulnerable down the road (as what happened to Republicans when they tried to pack all the Dems into 2 districts).

Therefore, I decided to draw a “safe” map that the Republicans would be smart to draw if safety is their greatest concern. I chose the Republicans because I’m not sure if the Dems will have a hand in this in VA come 2012. The outcome gives Republicans an additional 2 seats and would ensure that NO seats would change hands after the 2012 elections.

Here’s what I got:

District 1 – Blue – Rob Wittman (R)

Changes very little. Needs to expand more into NoVA due to population growth, but less than 10% of the district lives there. The NOVA part voted for Obama, but the rest of the district is fairly conservative. In fact, just to make sure, I traded some majority-black precincts and counties out for some of ultra-conservative Hanover County and other deep-red areas around Richmond. McCain probably got about 55% here. (71% white, 17% black, 2% asian, 6% hispanic)

District 2 – Green – Glenn Nye (D)

Changes greatly. Goes from being Virginia Beach and Eastern Shore based to being a liberal Hampton Roads district. I know some of you think that this district is unnecessary, but without it the Republicans would need to do some serious cracking, because there are still many majority-black precincts left over after packing VA-03 so much that it becomes 64% black (this is why Obama won Forbes’ district and almost won Nye’s). Obama probably got 65-75% here, as the district ONLY consists of strong Obama precincts. Nye would probably be challenged from the left by a black democrat in this district (39% white, 49% black, 3% Asian, 4% hispanic)

District 3 – Purple – Robert Scott (D)

Expands out into the countryside, into areas that helped Obama win Forbes’ district. I could’ve made it more black, but I wanted to keep the lines clean so that the courts couldn’t say anything. Still crosses the river, but not as obnoxiously as before. Obama probably got 65-75% here. (41% white, 50% black, 1% Asian, 5% hispanic)

District 4 – Red – Randy Forbes (R)

District becomes completely bleached and safe for anyone who succeeds Forbes in any political environment. Added the lean-Dem Eastern shore in so that the district isn’t too packed. McCain probably got 60% here. (72% white, 17% black, 3% Asian, 4% hispanic)

District 5 – yellow – No incumbent

Getting rid of Periello’s district was easy. I decided to break open Goodlatte’s and Boucher’s districts because they are overpacked with Republicans. This district takes in liberal areas in Roanoke, VA Tech, and Harrisonburg just to make VA-06 more conservative, but the district is still safe for any Republican who runs. McCain probably got 60% here. (82% white, 11% black, 1% Asian, 2% hispanic)

District 6 – teal – Bob Goodlatte (R) vs. Rick Boucher (D)

I know they worked out some kind of deal back in 2002, but if Republicans really want this seat, they really have no reason to care what Goodlatte thinks. This is mostly Goodlatte’s territory, but it takes in Boucher’s home. Goodlatte should win easily since nearly every precinct is strong-McCain. McCain probably got above 65% here. Republicans can unpack this after 2022 if they want. (91% white, 4% black, 1% hispanic)

District 7 – gray – Eric Cantor (R) vs. Tom Periello (D)

This district is anchored by the strongly-Republican Richmond suburbs. I took out some majority-black areas in Richmond, but I added some liberal areas in Charlottesville and majority-black areas from VA-01 to compensate. McCain’s performance is probably unchanged at 53%, but Cantor should be fine. I did not want to expand this district into NoVA, but I had to since I wanted to keep Wolf’s district partially in the Shenandoah Valley. Part of it was already in the DC media markey anyway. (77% white, 12% black, 4% Asian, 4% hispanic).

District 8 – purplish blue – Jim Moran (D)

Unpacked some to expand into heavily Obama areas in NoVa. Almost every precinct in this district was strong-Obama (he probably got 65% here). (59% white, 7% black, 14% Asian, 16% hispanic.

District 9 – light blue – No incumbent

Made this district too conservative for Boucher to win if he moved into it (he’d have to air ads in the Richmond suburbs where fire-breathing Republicans would hate him anyway). Really doesn’t include any liberal areas except maybe Danville. McCain probably got 60% here. (75% white, 19% black, 1% Asian, 3% hispanic)

District 10 – pink – Frank Wolf (R)

Wanted to keep one Republican district in NoVa. Basically trades Dem areas for Rep areas, while trying not to take in any strong-Obama precincts. Obama got 55% in Wolf’s current district, but I’d wager that drawn this way, the district would’ve went for McCain by about 52-53%. This is the only district that might change hands if the Dems haven’t peaked in NoVA, but given some recent elections there, I think they have. (76% white,

76% white, 6% black, 8% Asian, 7% hispanic).

District 11 – light green – Gerry Connolly (D)

Loses Republican areas, gains Democratic areas. It was hard for me to believe, but some of the Prince William County precincts went over 75% for Obama, and this was a district that was drawn for a Republican; well, there’s no way this one is going back to them anytime soon; thus, this is their second concession. (49% white, 17% black, 12% Asian, 18% hispanic), and yes, Virginia gets 3 minority-majority districts under this plan.

Whew, well, let me know what you all think of all this.