Tag: Redistricting

(This diary is cross-posted on the Swing State Project and the Albany Project.)

Using Dave’s Redistricting Application I have drawn a plan for the state of New York.  Already, 27 out of 29 Representatives are Democrats.  However, the state is set to lose one seat in the 2012 redistricting, and several current Democrats hold marginal districts.  

This plan tries to eliminate the remaining two Republicans.  NY-26, held by Christopher Lee in the western part of the state, is divided up among neighboring districts (and those districts themselves are drawn in a way which still favors Democrats) while Peter King’s district, NY-3 on Long Island, is made considerably more Democratic, whereby he will have a harder time getting re-elected.  At the same time, currently marginal districts, like NY-1, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-23 and NY-24 are made more Democratic.  NY-29, Eric Massa’s district, is renumbered NY-26 (as the 29th seat is eliminated because of reapportionment) and that district also becomes more Democratic.

Under the plan here, ALL districts in New York state voted by at least 54% for Obama and at most 45% for McCain.  This is possible because upstate New York (the area north of Westchester Co. and the less Democratic part of the state) voted approximately 54% for Obama, and 45% for McCain.  Therefore, it’s possible to create all districts in upstate which are 54% Obama/45% McCain (or 54/44 or 55/44) if one draws the lines correctly.  I have managed to do so, while at the same time paying attention to incumbent protection and keeping the districts relatively compact (it took a while to get it just right).  Long Island (Nassau and Suffolk Counties) only voted about 53/46 Obama/McCain, but by extending parts of some districts into New York City, it’s also possible to have all districts there at least 54/45 (in fact, only NY-1 and NY-3 are made to be 54/45; NY-2, NY-4 and NY-5 are all at least 57/42.  Staten Island-based NY-13 was, ofcourse, easy; all you have to do is combine parts of the current district with Manhattan.

I believe the 54/45 Obama/McCain margin for a safe Democratic district is applicable to New York.  If this were California, for example, I would not feel such a district safe at all.  But Obama’s improvement on John Kerry was not that high in New York, and in a few districts Obama actually performed the same as or marginally worse than Kerry (NY-3, NY-5, NY-9).  The other thing is that Democrats have managed to win districts in the state which are currently significantly less Democratic than the 54/45 margin: NY-1 (52/48 Obama/McCain), NY-13 (49-51), NY-19 (51/48), NY-20 (51/48), NY-23 (52/47), NY-24 (51/48), NY-29 (48/51).  I feel that if Democrats can win these marginal seats in the state, then any district that’s at least 54/45 should be safe.

Like with my redistricting plan for California, I include my “TTP” number here.  I feel that it’s a good measure relating to incumbent protection — something that has to be a significant factor in any realistic redistricting proposal.  (The “TTP” number is Territory Transfer Percentage, for lack of a better label.  It provides the percentage of the new district’s territory, in terms of population, that was formerly a part of the current district.  So, for example, in NY-7, the “TTP” is 77.  The proposed district contains much of the same territory as the current district, and 77% of the new district’s population was formerly a part of the old district; in other words, Joseph Crowley would be looking at a district where 77% of his new constituents are the same as his old constituents.)  I was aiming for a “TTP” score of at least 55 for each district, and was successful in all but two districts — NY-6, which loses a lot of territory in order to make the new NY-3 more Democratic, and the new NY-26, which combines much of Eric Massa’s current territory with parts of Chris Lee’s district and parts of Buffalo currently in Louise Slaughter’s NY-28.

Last but not least, this plan protects all minority-majority districts in the state.  The black percentage in several districts goes down a bit, but they are still drawn to ensure African-American representation.  (Demographic stats below include percentages for groups that total 10% or more of the population of a particular district).

MAP:

District 1:

Incumbent: Timothy Bishop

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 71; hispanic 17

TTP: 69

The district continues to encompass the eastern half of Long Island, albeit some areas are new to the district.  NY-1 is made more Democratic by taking out very Republican Smithtown and more marginal areas in Brookhaven and then adding very Democratic areas in Islip.

District 2:  

Incumbent: Steve Israel

Current District:  Obama 56; McCain 43

Proposed District:  Obama 57; McCain 42

Demographics: white 63; black 16; hispanic 13

TTP: 61

The district is made marginally more Democratic as the lines are redrawn.  The new district is centered on Huntington and Babylon in western Suffolk Co. but also branches out east to include parts of Islip and Brookhaven and west to include parts of Oyster Bay and Hempstead in Suffolk Co.

District 3:  

Incumbent: Peter King

Current District:  Obama 47; McCain 52

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 66; black 21

TTP: 70

Much of the district remains the same.  What makes the reconfigured district considerably more Democratic is an arm (approximately one-fourth of the new district’s population) that now extends into heavily African-American areas in Queens.

District 4:  

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy

Current District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Demographics: white 60; black 15; hispanic 13

TTP: 71

Remains similar to the current Nassau County district.  Some very Democratic areas in Hempstead are taken out to become part of the new NY-2.  To make up for the loss, NY-4 extends slightly into neighboring areas of Queens.  The result is a marginally more Democratic district.

District 5:  

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman

Current District:  Obama 63; McCain 36

Proposed District:  Obama 57; McCain 42

Demographics: white 48; asian 23; hispanic 23

TTP: 75

The new district continues to include most of the current territory in Queens and northern Nassau County.  It is extended eastward along the northern shore of Long Island, all the way to Smithtown.  The new lines drop the Democratic percentage, but at 57/42 Obama/McCain (and approximately 57/42 Kerry/Bush as well) the new district should be safe for us.

District 6:

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks

Current District:  Obama 89; McCain 11

Proposed District:  Obama 79; McCain 21

Demographics: black 45; white 22; hispanic 18; asian 10

TTP: 52

The new NY-6 contains most of the territory of the current NY-6.  Some African-American areas in the east are taken out to strengthen Long Island-based districts.  To make up for the loss, NY-6 extends west into African-American areas in Brooklyn.  The new NY-6 is 45% black versus 52% for the current district (using data from Dave’s Application, not the 2000 census figures, as the numbers have changed over the decade), but the next largest ethnic/racial group, whites, are only at 22% in the district, so an African-American Representative is basically assured here.

District 7:  

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley

Current District:  Obama 79; McCain 20

Proposed District:  Obama 79; McCain 21

Demographics: hispanic 39; white 30; black 14; asian 13

TTP: 77

Remains very similar to the current district which stretches across parts of Queens and the Bronx.  The largest ethnic/racial group here are Hispanics (at 42% in the current district and 39% under the proposed lines).

District 8:  

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 26

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 34

Demographics: white 69; asian 15; hispanic 10

TTP: 59

The new district contains much of the same territory as the current district — an interesting combination of very progressive areas in Manhattan and more conservative  parts of Brooklyn (large Orthodox Jewish population in that part of Brooklyn).

District 9:  

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner

Current District:  Obama 55; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 35

Demographics: white 48; asian 24; hispanic 20

TTP: 58

The new NY-9 is more compact than the current NY-9 in that it’s confined entirely to Queens.  The more conservative Orthodox Jewish areas in Brooklyn are taken out and the partisan numbers go up for the Democratic Party.

District 10:  

Incumbent: Edolphus Towns

Current District:  Obama 91; McCain 9

Proposed District:  Obama 84; McCain 15

Demographics: black 45; white 24; hispanic 22

TTP: 68

The new Brooklyn-based district is largely similar to the current one.  The black percentage goes down from 59% to 45% but, in circumstances similar to NY-6, continued representation by an African-American Congressman or Congresswoman is assured here.

District 11:  

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke

Current District:  Obama 91; McCain 9

Proposed District:  Obama 82; McCain 18

Demographics: black 47; white 34; hispanic 11

TTP: 76

See District 10 above.  The new district contains a vast majority of the current territory of NY-11.  The black percentage goes down from 56% to 47% but that is still enough to assure representation by an African-American.

District 12:  

Incumbent: Nydia Velázquez

Current District:  Obama 86; McCain 13

Proposed District:  Obama 86; McCain 13

Demographics: hispanic 45; white 25; asian 22

TTP: 85

The new district remains very similar to the current Hispanic-plurality one (the current district is about 47% Hispanic according to data in Dave’s Application, while the new one is a couple points less Hispanic).

District 13:

Incumbent: Michael McMahon

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 51

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Demographics: white 69; hispanic 13

TTP: 78

The new district combines all of Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn just over the Verrazano Bridge with very progressive areas in Manhattan (mostly the Upper West Side).  As you would guess, the Democratic percentage surges, even with less than a quarter of the new district’s territory coming out of Manhattan.

District 14:  

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney

Current District:  Obama 78; McCain 21

Proposed District:  Obama 81; McCain 18

Demographics: white 67; hispanic 14

TTP: 69

The new district is now confined entirely to Manhattan, as the Queens areas are taken out.  The district becomes marginally even more Democratic than the current progressive stronghold.

District 15:  

Incumbent: Charles Rangel

Current District:  Obama 93; McCain 6

Proposed District:  Obama 95; McCain 4

Demographics: hispanic 47; black 37; white 10

TTP: 63

New district is similarly centered on Harlem and other areas in northern Manhattan.  The district crosses over to encompass parts of the Bronx, and the African-American percentage goes up from 29% in the current district to 37% under the new lines (while the Hispanic percentage goes up slightly from 46% to 47%).

District 16:  

Incumbent: José Serrano

Current District:  Obama 95; McCain 5

Proposed District:  Obama 95; McCain 5

Demographics: hispanic 66; black 28

TTP: 95

Remains very, very similar to the current Bronx-based district.

District 17:

Incumbent: Eliot Engel

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Demographics: white 59; black 18; hispanic 16

TTP: 67

The new district includes much of the same territory in the Bronx, and Westchester and Rockland Counties.  Parts of the Bronx are detached while the district expands outward into Orange County (this is geographically necessary, because of population shifts between New York City and the rest of the state).  The new district becomes a little less Democratic, but is still very safe.

District 18:  

Incumbent: Nita Lowey

Current District:  Obama 62; McCain 38

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37

Demographics: white 63; hispanic 19

TTP: 95

Westchester-based NY-18 remains very similar in shape and partisan preference to the current district.

District 19:  

Incumbent: John Hall

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 74; hispanic 12

TTP: 62

The new district NY-19 becomes more Democratic as areas in Orange and Dutchess Counties are rearranged.

District 20:  

Incumbent: Scott Murphy

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 88

TTP: 68

The district remains similar to the current one, but is made more Democratic, as more Republican areas (Greene Co. and part of Delaware Co.) are taken out, while part of Albany is added.

District 21:  

Incumbent: Paul Tonko

Current District:  Obama 58; McCain 40

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 87

TTP: 67

The new district continues to be centered on the Albany area.  It becomes less Democratic as it expands north and west into more conservative territory, but remains a safe seat.

District 22:  

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey

Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Demographics: white 85

TTP: 68

The new NY-22 is similar in many ways to the current one.  Progressive areas around   Ithaca/Cornell University are taken out to shore up the neighboring NY-24, but the Democratic percentage here still remains safe.

District 23:  

Incumbent: Bill Owens

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 89

TTP: 69

The new district combines the more Democratic parts of the current NY-23 with Democratic territory around Rochester (as well as GOP-leaning but less-populated territory in Monroe Co., east of Rochester).  The overall Democratic percentage goes up by a few points.

District 24:  

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 86

TTP: 58

Arcuri had a close call during his 2008 re-election bid, so the more Democratic district created by this plan should help.

District 25:  

Incumbent: Daniel Maffei

Current District:  Obama 56; McCain 43

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 86

TTP: 56

NY-25 continues to include most of Syracuse and Onondaga Co. (although parts have been taken out to shore up the neighboring NY-24), and stretches west towards the suburbs of Rochester.

District 26:  

Incumbents: Eric Massa, Christopher Lee

Current District:  Obama 48; McCain 51 (current NY-29); Lee’s district, current NY-26, is Obama 46; McCain 52

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 79; black 14

TTP: 44

This new district combines much of Massa’s territory in NY-29 (44% of the new district), parts of Lee’s (22% of the new district) and the part of Erie Co. that is currently in NY-28 (31% of the new district), with a small remainder coming out of the current NY-27.  It stretches from Massa’s home in Corning to encompass parts of Buffalo currently in NY-28.  Lee’s home is put into the new NY-26 but his district is split among neighboring ones (22% to the new NY-26 here, 40% to NY-28, and the remainder split between

NY-27, NY-25 and NY-23).

District 27:  

Incumbent: Brian Higgins

Current District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 88

TTP: 87

This Buffalo-based district remains very similar to the current configuration.

District 28:  

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter

Current District:  Obama 69; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 55; McCain 44

Demographics: white 75; black 14

TTP: 56

The new district looks quite similar on a map (stretching from Rochester to Niagara Falls) but the Democratic percentage goes down as parts of Buffalo are taken out.  Nevertheless the seat remains safe for a Democrat.

So that’s my plan for New York.  Thank you for any comments or suggestions.

After a careful look at the state after coming up with a redistricting plan the first time around, I decided to be more aggressive, bringing the delegation to a possible 6-1 breakdown.  In another scenario I tried to create a majority Hispanic district, but while doable it makes a 6-1 breakdown impossible and would depose one of our current Democratic Reps.

I’m going off the assumption that Democrats retain both houses of the legislature and the Governor’s mansion, a tough fight but I think that’s how it’ll end up.  

This time the goals were to: A) Make Markey safe, B) shore up Salazar at least a little, C) Keep Perlmutter, Polis and DeGette in reasonably solid Districts, and D) transform one of the other 2 districts into a swing district.

Here’s a map of the result:

And a look at the metro area…

1st CD: Diana DeGette v. Mike Coffman

Population: 706,016

58% White, 13% Black, 20% Hispanic

This district still retains a substantial Denver county presence, keeping DeGette’s home in east Denver, the Denver portion runs roughly from Elyria Swansea in the north, keeping Capitol Hill, Wash Park and all the neighborhoods north of I-25 up to Virginia Village, then everything east and south of that neighborhood is in the 7th.  Denver now makes up 38% of the district.

The 1st now includes all of Aurora, including the far-flung areas and Foxfield before going south into Douglas County, picking up most of Lone Tree and a good chunk of Parker.  It also manages to pick up Mike Coffman’s home, removing him from any Republican district.

Despite extending into Douglas county, only about 26% of the 1st is Republican leaning, with another 18% of the district in southern Aurora that could be considered swingy.  with a majority still solidly Democratic and such a large minority population DeGette should have no problem holding the seat.

Having the 1st go south all the way into Douglas allows the 6th to also move south, picking up the blood-red areas in northern El Paso County.

2nd CD: Jared Polis

Population: 705,761

77% White, 16% Hispanic

As much as I wanted to draw Polis out of this district, I didn’t want to put any of Boulder County in any other district, so Polis can stay to grandstand another day.  

This district remains anchored in Boulder County, extending into Broomfield, Thornton, Northglenn, Federal Heights and Westminster in Adams County, and Grand County as it did before.  From there, however it becomes radically different.  

The 2nd extends into Jackson County, northern Routt County (excluding Steamboat), Moffat, Rio Blanco, Garfield (west of Rifle), and several precincts in Mesa County, including Fruita and parts of Grand Junction.  It also goes south into Jefferson, picking up the foothills area of Evergreen and Conifer.

This move was meant to draw as many Republican votes out of the 3rd as possible without turning the 2nd into a swing district.  It does have the nice effect of diluting the People’s Republic of Boulder more than it has been in the past, however, a side-effect I’m happy to see.

Once again, despite the move into more Republican territory, only 13% of the district leans Republican now, with another 41% even considered less than solidly Democratic.  (I included Broomfield, Northglenn, Westminister, Thornton and Federal Heights in that number, definitely pessimistic to call it swingy).

3rd CD: John Salazar

Population: 705,635

70% White, 24% Hispanic

Making Salazar too much safer would be pointless, he has a proven ability to hold this district by wide margins, despite Obama only getting 47% here in the old district.  There is room for improvement, however, just to be safe and keep the “Penry scenario” out of relevance.  

The biggest changes were to add  Eagle, most of Summit, Lake, Crowley, the rest of Otero, and Bent.  The latter counties are all small enough and friendly enough to Democrats to not make much difference, the ski counties, however, help a great deal in making this district less Republican, along with the territory taken by the 2nd.

The only other change was the loss of a handful of precincts in Pueblo County.  So overall still more of a swing district, with 37.5% of the district leaning Republican and another 7% more swingy, the rest at least leans Democratic.  Obama would have definitely won this district, but not overwhelmingly.

4th CD: Betsy Markey

Population: 705,422

68% White, 26% Hispanic

In terms of voting percentage, the 4th is pretty drastically changed.  Going from a narrow Obama loss to a solid Obama win.  By losing all the rural plains counties as well as eastern Weld county, there is only the increasingly blue Larimer county and the bluing southwest Weld county, including Greeley.  What is added here is all of Adams county except for Northglenn, Westminster, Federal Heights, and Thornton, making this district much more Hispanic as well.  So even if Cory Gardner were to win in 2010, he would be drawn out of the district and put into the 6th.  The result is a district where Obama received more than 54% of the vote.  

5th CD:

Population: 705,420

70% White, 24% Hispanic

This is the district I call “The Crab”, its the most severe gerrymander I could come up with given my limited data.  (Any other suggestions as to what this district looks like would be great!)  It goes from an El Paso County based district to going from most of Colorado Springs south into Fremont, through Park and Chaffee, back into Jefferson and Arapahoe, drawing out Lamborn.  The idea came from someone else on here, who wanted a springs-based district which Obama had won, but there’s not enough people in that area to make an entire district, so I had to get creative.

Put more specifically, this district takes in all the precincts Obama won in Colorado Springs and Fountain, as well as a few others that needed to be added to make the district contiguous, as well as Manitou Springs and Fort Carson, which Obama won.  Fremont and Park were both pretty solid for McCain, but their populations are negligible and there needed to be a link from this to the increasingly blue southern Denver suburbs to the north without going through Douglas.  To the south, the 5th takes in a few precincts in Pueblo County.

North of Park it includes Gilpin and Clear Creek and part of Summit, all of which went for Obama.  Once in Jefferson, the 5th avoids the wealthy Ken Caryl, and extends into Littleton in Jeffco for lack of a better name, once again leaving out the worst performing precincts, but still much of that area voted for McCain.  It then extends into southern Lakewood, going as far north as Mississippi Ave. and also part of Morrison.  Once in Arapahoe County the district includes Littleton, Sheridan, Englewood, Columbine Valley, Greenwood Village Cherry Hills Village and Centennial, leaving out Bowmar.  All of these except for Cherry Hills, with a population of just over 6,000 voted for Obama.  

So overall the 5th becomes extremely swingy, with 23% of the district leaning Republican and 41% of the district being made up of areas that are traditional swing areas.  There are definitely more Democratic voters now in the 5th than there have ever been, the 5th has never before been represented by a Democrat, but it should now be competitive enough to make that possible.  

6th CD: Doug Lamborn

Total Population: 705,583

81% White, 11% Hispanic

The 6th becomes a Democrats worst nightmare, taking in virtually all the most Republican areas.  The district takes in the rest of Douglas County and the rest of El Paso County, where Obama only one 2 precincts.  From there it extends into the heavily Republican Teller County, eastern Weld and Arapahoe Counties, and all the eastern plains counties not in the 3rd.  

With no Democratic areas to speak of and only 1% even remotely  swingy, this district isn’t even worth having a Democrat run in.  If Coffman were smart he would move into this district and fast!

7th CD: Ed Perlmutter

Total Population: 705,613

64% White, 28% Hispanic

The 7th retains its base in Jefferson County, keeping Perlmutter’s home.  It then also takes in all of west Denver includig the Civic Center, Lincoln Park, and most of Baker and east Denver south of I-25 and the Virginia Village neighborhood.    Its only Republican additions are part of south-east Jefferson near Sheridan & Bowles and Ken Caryl.  

Overall this district become more Democratic than before with only 5% of the district leaning Republican and 22% of the district being swingy.  (Golden, Arvada, and Westminster were considered swingy in this analysis.)  Obama would have won this district solidly.

I attempted to create a map of California that benefits Democrats and yet does not involve extreme gerrymandering. This is the result, with which I am quite pleased. Very few of the districts are overt gerrymanders, and for the most part the uglier ones are to meet Voting Rights Act requirements. In the end, I successfully packed most of the Republicans into 5 very solidly Republican districts, freeing up room for 47 districts that should reliably go Democratic barring extenuating circumstances and 1 swing district. The districts are generally organized from north to south, but I will still note the colors of the districts for ease. I will also note races and ethnicities that exist above 5% of the district population (“Hispanic” will be considered separate from the other races). Each district’s population deviates less than 0.1% from the ideal population, and can easily be smoothed out even more if the confines of block groups were removed. I may have made slight tweaks to some of the districts, but unless noted, the population percentages change by 2% at most.

California at large

Sacramento Valley

San Francisco Bay Area

Central Valley

Urban Los Angeles (the districts in the southeast, at the Orange County border, look a little different because I made some tweaks and didn’t feel like making the other maps over again; the districts shown in this map are the ones I discuss)

Orange County

Inland Empire

San Diego

District 1 (blue)

Incumbent: Mike Thompson (D)

65% white, 7% Asian, 20% Hispanic

This is the only district in northern California that is overtly gerrymandered, but the small strip running through Sacramento and Placer Counties can easily be widened. Napa and Yolo Counties, which are in the current 1st district, account for about 45% of the new district, and Thompson should also be comfortable with the parts of Nevada County in the new district; the cities of Truckee and Nevada City are very liberal, and Grass Valley is a swingish place. The Placer County area shouldn’t be too conservative, since it includes the minority-rich parts of Roseville and all of Auburn and the Lake Tahoe area in the east. This gives the district the chance to neutralize conservative Citrus Heights in Sacramento County.

District 2 (green)

Incumbent: None

77% white, 11% Hispanic

Technically, this district has no incumbent, because Wally Herger (R), who represents much of the current district, lives in Chico. However, he will probably choose to run in this dark-red district, which includes Redding, lumber country in the north, and conservative Sacramento suburbs. He may face some primary competition from Tom McClintock of the 4th district, who represents the Sacramento suburbs and ran his first race for that district from Ventura County.

District 3 (purple)

Incumbent: Dan Lungren (R), Tom McClintock (R)

43% white, 9% black, 16% Asian, 26% Hispanic

This district becomes much more diverse and Democratic. It drops many conservative parts in northwestern Sacramento County and its two counties in the Sierras, Amador and Calaveras, in exchange for minority portions of Elk Grove and Sacramento that are currently packed into the 5th district and heavily Hispanic parts of Stockton. Obama should have won this district comfortably in 2008, and considering Lungren only won by 5% against Bill Durston that year, he should certainly lose here.

District 4 (red)

Incumbent: Wally Herger (R)

67% white, 22% Hispanic

The 4th district is effectively eliminated and replaced here, sharing only a small portion of Butte County and based in the northern exurban parts of the San Francisco Bay Area. It covers Santa Rosa in Sonoma County, and the extremely strongly Democratic town of Sebastopol. Although the Sonoma County part is only about 35% of the district, it is fiercely partisan, voting for Obama with about 75% of the vote, while the rest of the district is almost exactly even, and whichever Democrat decides to run here should win easily.

District 5 (yellow)

Incumbent: Doris Matsui (D)

48% white, 11% black, 14% Asian, 21% Hispanic

All of Sacramento is no longer packed into this district, and it recedes entirely from Elk Grove. Instead, it marches east all the way to Folsom, picking up some very conservative territory along the way. Overall, Obama should still have received over 60% of the vote here, and if Matsui is unhappy with it, it can be expanded southward a little bit. A healthy minority population should forestall that, though.

District 6 (teal)

Incumbent: Lynn Woolsey (D)

74% white, 15% Hispanic

Woolsey’s district loses most of Sonoma County in exchange for less-progressive areas in the north, but in California, “less progressive” means Obama won with about 65% of the vote. It eats into a small liberal edge of Siskiyou County, probably ski resorts. In general, it takes Lynn Woolsey’s home city of Petaluma and various “conservative” areas in Sonoma County, which amounts to voting for Obama with about 70%. In theory, this district could be extended further into the mountains and free up more of Sonoma County for the 4th district, but that would look kind of bad.

District 7 (gray)

Incumbent: George Miller (D)

41% white, 9% black, 14% Asian, 29% Hispanic

The 7th district drops Richmond and San Pablo, two very progressive cities by the bay, and gains the parts of Stockton that aren’t in the 3rd district. This causes a large drop in the black population, but a corresponding gain in the Hispanic population. Even with the addition of very rich areas in interior Contra Costa County, George Miller should be very comfortable in this strongly liberal district.

District 8 (periwinkle)

Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi (D)

48% white, 30% Asian, 14% Hispanic

Nancy Pelosi is living proof that Democrats should elect their leaders from safe districts; Tom Foley lost in 1994, Tom Daschle lost in 2004, Harry Reid is in serious danger in 2010. But Nancy Pelosi is probably safe even if God is proven to be real. This district keeps her residence in the Pacific Heights neighborhood, but shifts west, probably losing a few points of Democratic performance, but nothing to worry about at all. The westward move subtly benefits Democrats from the Central Valley, as will be revealed in a while.

District 9 (light blue)

Incumbent: Barbara Lee (D)

39% white, 17% black, 23% Asian, 16% Hispanic

The 9th district now skips across the Bay Bridge into San Francisco and takes whatever is not occupied by Nancy Pelosi. It absorbs Berkeley and most of Oakland, but no longer all of it, and it fills in the rest of its population requirements with filthy rich cities in central Contra Costa County, inhabited by voters who tend to be socially liberal but fiscally moderate. The 11th district is sucked into eastern Oakland and becomes safely Democratic as a result of this, and that reverberates through the rest of the Central Valley. The drop in the black population is unfortunate, though; to fix that, the 9th can give Berkeley to the 11th in exchange for the rest of Oakland, but that makes the lines messier.

District 10 (pink)

Incumbent: John Garamendi (D)

39% white, 15% black, 13% Asian, 27% Hispanic

Garamendi’s district is substantially reconfigured to meet his needs, since the current version of the district was drawn for Ellen Tauscher, who resigned to work in the State Department. All of Solano County is present, constituting a majority of the district’s population. The parts in the Central Valley contain Garamendi’s home in Sacramento County and the very conservative city of Lodi in San Joaquin County. The tendril to the west counterbalances Lodi’s influence with San Pablo and Richmond, which are like mini-Oaklands in both ethnic composition and political leanings.

District 11 (yellow-green)

Incumbent: Jerry McNerney (D)

58% white, 8% black, 10% Asian, 20% Hispanic

The new 11th district is more compact and much more Democratic than the current district, and can be viewed as having three prongs. The prong in San Joaquin County covers Republican-tilting Manteca, fast-growing suburban city Tracy, and some deep red regions in the east. The Contra Costa wing drops Danville and San Ramon and instead picks up parts of Concord, Walnut Creek, and Lafayette. However, the Alameda wing is the most important part; it includes Pleasanton, McNerney’s home, and about a fifth of Oakland, responsible for the strong progressiveness of this district.

District 12 (pastel blue)

Incumbent: Jackie Speier (D)

44% white, 25% Asian, 23% Hispanic

The new 12th district is probably one of the cleanest and most logical in the nation. It takes in all of suburban and wealthy San Mateo County except Atherton, where Anna Eshoo lives, and a section of Menlo Park. It might be possible by combining certain parts of San Francisco with northern San Mateo County to make an Asian-plurality district, but there isn’t much reason for doing so.

District 13 (tan)

Incumbent: Pete Stark (D)

34% white, 6% black, 31% Asian, 23% Hispanic

The composition of this district doesn’t change significantly; it just moves north a little as Barbara Lee’s San Francisco addition sucks it in. It maintains most of Fremont, all of Hayward, and the city of Alameda. A few more adjustments can easily makes this district Asian-plurality, but that wouldn’t really affect anything. Pete Stark is one of my personal favorite representatives, as the only openly atheist (imagine a country where “openly atheist” is more damning than “openly gay”) congressman.

District 14 (olive)

Incumbent: Anna Eshoo (D)

50% white, 31% Asian, 13% Hispanic

Anna Eshoo may want to swap a few tentacles of territory with Jackie Speier, since her base is in San Mateo County, but from an interparty standpoint, Eshoo is in no danger. This new district adds the city of Santa Clara and more of San Jose to become the “Silicon Valley district”. Relatively conservative (relative to the rest of Santa Clara County) Saratoga and Monte Sereno are also included.

District 15 (orange)

Incumbent: Mike Honda (D)

34% white, 34% Asian, 25% Hispanic

This district is one of two newly Asian-plurality districts, along with the 32nd. Although 12% of California’s population is Asian, suggesting about 5 majority Asian districts, it is actually nigh impossible to create even one majority Asian district without drawing lines that are absurd and would be shot down in court because the Asian population is so thoroughly distributed throughout the coastal areas. The southern tendril now contains Morgan Hill instead of Gilroy.

District 16 (bright green)

Incumbent: Zoe Lofgren (D)

30% white, 16% Asian, 46% Hispanic

Instead of being entirely confined to Santa Clara County and wasting precious votes, this district now takes in a generally swing part of Stanislaus County. However, the Hispanic part of San Jose occupies 45% of the population, ensuring that the new 16th is still safe for Democrats. There is a very strong chance that Lofgren will be replaced by a Hispanic representative when she retires.

District 17 (indigo)

Incumbent: Sam Farr (D)

58% white, 6% Asian, 28% Hispanic

The general shape of the new 17th district was inspired by Abel Maldonado (R)’s State Senate district, but made more Democratic. Starting from downtown San Jose, it tracks toward coastal Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, picking up very white, very progressive, very high-turnout areas around Monterey Bay. In the south, it takes in Republican parts of inland San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. Paso Robles, Atascadero, Orcutt, and part of Lompoc are neutralized, allowing the 22nd district to soak up more Republicans elsewhere and the 24th to transform into a Democratic stronghold.

District 18 (bright yellow)

Incumbent: Dennis Cardoza (D)

33% white, 56% Hispanic

More Hispanics are shoveled into the 18th, mostly from Watsonville and Salinas, both strongly Democratic cities. It no longer goes through Stockton and Modesto, but expands in Madera County and occupies the Hispanic areas of Turlock. It would not be a surprise if Obama won within the high 60s in this district, and Dennis Cardoza either needs to vote more liberally, or fall to a primary challenge. In a stroke of irony, the 18th now, like the 17th, resembles a Democratic-leaning State Senate district occupied by a Republican.

District 19 (dull green)

Incumbent: George Radanovich (R)

73% white, 16% Hispanic

George Radanovich’s current district, which Obama lost by only 6%, has far too many wasted Democratic votes; in fact, Obama won the Fresno County portion. The new form stacks up all the toxic territory that can’t be effectively cleaned up by the Bay Area. It recedes a bit from Stanislaus County, adds Clovis and white areas in Fresno, and takes Sacramento exurbs in El Dorado County, while staying out of Democratic South Lake Tahoe.

District 20 (light pink)

Incumbent: Jim Costa (D)

24% white, 5% black, 8% Asian, 59% Hispanic

Kings County and Bakersfield are dumped in favor of more of Fresno County and all of San Benito County. There is not really a net difference in Democratic performance, and Jim Costa is safe for as long as he wants to be. However, this district can easily be made more Democratic by trading more white parts of Fresno to the slightly packed 18th in exchange for Salinas. However, it seems more logical to pack the 18th to force Cardoza left, and Costa is safe anyways. If Watsonville, Gilroy, and Salinas are divided among two districts, they will shift the districts left, but not enough to put either Cardoza or Costa in danger of a primary.

District 21 (dark red)

Incumbent: Devin Nunes (R)

18% white, 5% black, 70% Hispanic

There are just enough Democratic votes left in the Central Valley to support an additional Democratic district. The demographics are a little deceptive, since many of the Hispanics do not vote, and those who do tend to tilt socially conservative, but Devin Nunes, whose home in Tulare is probably in this district, will probably be turned out of office nevertheless. The shape of the district is a bit ragged, but should be protected by the Voting Rights Act, since the Hispanic population growth should demand an additional district. A few more Democratic votes can be milked out by spilling into inland Monterey County, if that is necessary.

District 22 (brown)

Incumbent: Kevin McCarthy (R)

59% white, 29% Hispanic

This is easily the most conservative congressional district in California, which is surprising given its large Hispanic population, evidencing just how few of those Hispanics actually vote. It fits around the 21st district in Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties, and includes a few sparsely populated areas of Los Angeles County for population purposes. The spike into inland San Luis Obispo County is unnecessary now, since the 17th district has it covered. The Los Angeles County parts can be removed and replicated in San Bernardino County, where they matter a tiny bit more, but it’s only 11 000 people anyways, and it would look worse.

District 23 (light blue)

Incumbent: Lois Capps (D)

46% white, 5% Asian, 44% Hispanic

This sliver along the coastline fattens slightly in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, but still keeps its general shape. It can be thickened considerably more without any real difference in composition if block groups could be split in the application, since it borders some very sparsely populated areas covered by very large block groups. The district still goes into Oxnard, to make sure it is stable; there isn’t a better place to put those Democratic votes anyways, since the rest of Ventura County can be mixed and matched with very liberal West Los Angeles. It becomes a tad more Hispanic, but not enough to form a plurality.

District 24 (dark purple)

Incumbent: None

57% white, 7% Asian, 30% Hispanic

Although the new 24th district maintains most of Elton Gallegly’s territory, there are some major differences. Republican Simi Valley is clipped out, removing Gallegly’s home in the process, and the ultra-conservative parts of inland Santa Barbara County, like Orcutt, are neutralized by the 17th district. To make up for the lost population, 40% of the district spills into Los Angeles County, which sets its tone as a new Democratic stronghold.

District 25 (pastel pink)

Incumbent: None

25% white, 11% Asian, 60% Hispanic

The 25th district is eliminated and replaced in this district located in southeastern Los Angeles, cobbled together from various Hispanic areas left behind by the districts stretching into Orange County. The 25th itself snakes into Orange County, picking up most of Yorba Linda and Brea, both strongly conservative, and moderate La Habra. The very Hispanic parts of Los Angeles County, which make up over 70% of the district, compensate more than enough for the poisonous Orange County portion, though, and this district should be ready for a new Democratic congressman.

District 26 (dark gray)

Incumbent: David Dreier (R)

28% white, 7% black, 6% Asian, 56% Hispanic

Some conservative-leaning suburbs north of Los Angeles, such as Arcadia and Glendora, are removed, but San Dimas, where David Dreier lives, remains. The pink city of Chino is added, but more importantly, the 26th now pushes into Pomona and Fontana, and adds all of Ontario. This pushes it to majority Hispanic status. If it seems to need some reinforcement, it can swap Rancho Cucamonga with the 43rd district, which has a larger Hispanic majority and more blacks.

District 27 (aquamarine)

Incumbent: Brad Sherman (D), Buck McKeon (R)

45% white, 9% Asian, 39% Hispanic

Brad Sherman’s district adds Santa Clarita to the north and drops the appendage that stretches into Burbank. Almost 70% of the new district is Sherman’s old territory, and it takes a little from the even more Democratic 28th district, which should be more than enough to force Buck McKeon into retirement. The white population inches up a tad and the Hispanic population does not increase much, which is good, since Sherman seems to have an abnormal fear of being knocked off by a Hispanic candidate in a primary.

District 28 (lavender)

Incumbent: Howard Berman

34% white, 7% black, 5% Asian, 49% Hispanic

40% of this district is now Lancaster and Palmdale; the former tilts Republican but was won by Obama, whereas the latter tilts Democratic. Generally, the new northern portion is a wash. The southern portion, which contains most of Berman’s current territory, is ardently Democratic, though, and easily outweighs the north’s swingish tendencies. In fact, the new 28th district can swap some territory with the new 27th if Brad Sherman thinks he isn’t safe there.

District 29 (pastel green)

Incumbent: Adam Schiff (D)

47% white, 12% Asian, 34% Hispanic

The 29th district contracts into a round little thing and shifts substantially west, but, of course, remains as Democratic as one would expect for a district in the midst of the Los Angeles area. It now includes all of Glendale, Burbank, and La Canada Flintridge, and eats significantly into Los Angeles. It might gain a few points or lose a few points of Democratic performance, but either way, Schiff should be well-established here.

District 30 (pastel pink)

Incumbent: Henry Waxman (D), Elton Gallegly (R)

73% white, 9% Asian, 12% Hispanic

Henry Waxman’s district sneaks into Ventura County and snaps up Republican-leaning Simi Valley and about two-thirds of equally conservative Camarillo. Even though Gallegly lives here, he would certainly lose to even a boiled owl with a D after its name, so of course Waxman is safe… oh wait… Anyways, the rich progressive areas around Hollywood steel the 30th against any potential Republican incursions. Interestingly, the Ventura County portion is less white than the Los Angeles County portion; the whites around Hollywood are the kind who are among the most reliable and socially liberal in the nation.

District 31 (pastel yellow)

Incumbent: Xavier Becerra (D)

28% white, 7% black, 11% Asian, 50% Hispanic

This district is kind of like the old 25th district in how geographically misleading it is. It connects moderately conservative areas in San Bernardino County, like Victorville, Upland, and a slice of Rancho Cucamonga, to central Los Angeles, using the vast Angeles National Forest. It also includes the minority-heavy western half of Pasadena. The whites in this district are a bit more liberal than is typical, since many hail from Pasadena.

District 32 (red-orange)

Incumbent: Judy Chu (D), Gary Miller (R)

18% white, 44% Asian, 33% Hispanic

The 32nd district changes significantly to accommodate Judy Chu, perhaps becoming a little less Democratic, but also much more Asian. It takes Walnut from the 26th district and Gary Miller’s home city of Diamond Bar, both heavily Asian municipalities, and then meanders through a bunch of Asian neighborhoods toward Monterey Park. This is probably the only district outside of Hawaii that would consistently elect an Asian representative; most Asians have no problem voting for a white candidate where the white population is high, but here it gets forced down by the substantial Hispanic population, and the Hispanic population is not large enough to win against the Asian population.

District 33 (pastel blue)

Incumbent: Diane Watson (D)

15% white, 23% black, 13% Asian, 44% Hispanic

The 33rd district loses a white tentacle to the north and picks up some whites to the east, and does not change substantially. It’s actually kind of sad that so many Democrats are locked into this festering district in the heart of urban Los Angeles. Hispanic population growth reduces the relative number of blacks, but blacks should still be dominant, considering how few of the Hispanics actually vote.

District 34 (pastel green)

Incumbent: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

7% white, 5% black, 6% Asian, 79% Hispanic

The 34th district will probably continue to be the most Hispanic district in the nation. It could be a good idea to “eliminate” this district, split it up into 4-6 chunks, and give Roybal-Allard one of them, to distribute the votes more efficiently and make more Hispanic-majority districts, but it doesn’t particularly matter, since every one of the Los Angeles districts is safely Democratic.

District 35 (pastel purple)

Incumbent: Maxine Waters (D)

20% white, 20% black, 10% Asian, 47% Hispanic

By taking in the white and rather Republican Palos Verdes Peninsula, the 35th district preserves some semblance of African-American voting power against by keeping the Hispanic population from attaining a majority of the district’s total population. Still, Maxine Waters will very likely be replaced by a Hispanic representative when she retires, and it’s pretty much impossible to do anything about that. There once was a time when the black population constituted a greater percentage, but now it’s constantly dwindling.

District 36 (yellow-orange)

Incumbent: Jane Harman (D)

35% white, 18% black, 10% Asian, 33% Hispanic

Jane Harman’s recent voting record has shifted to the left, but she still has a lot of problems and scandals to deal with. This district should ensure that her shift to the left is not temporary. The northern part of Maxine Waters’s district, which was left behind so the 35th could absorb the Palos Verdes Peninsula, including the city of Inglewood and parts of interior Los Angeles, is added. The population should be white enough to maintain Harman in a primary if she continues to improve, but should her former centrism return, she’ll easily be knocked off by a progressive minority candidate, considering many of the whites are Republicans.

District 37 (light pastel blue)

Incumbent: Laura Richardson (D)

30% white, 8% black, 21% Asian, 36% Hispanic

This diverse district is cobbled together from most of Long Beach, all of Paramount for extra Democratic votes, and Westminster and Fountain Valley in Orange County. The Orange County cities have a large Asian population, but they’re largely Vietnamese and conservative. Hopefully Laura Richardson, who has attracted too much controversy for a nondescript heavily Democratic district in an urban area, will be primaried out.

District 38 (blue-green)

Incumbent: Grace Napolitano (D), Ed Royce (R)

29% white, 11% Asian, 55% Hispanic

Like many other districts, Grace Napolitano’s new 38th district combines a moderately conservative part of Orange County with a strongly Democratic and Hispanic part of Los Angeles County. Pico Rivera and Norwalk cause the Democratic percentage to shoot up, which overrides the pinkish regions of Orange County, including Fullerton, Placentia, and Buena Park. Ed Royce is inadvertently put into the district, but he will be flattened by Napolitano easily in this Hispanic-majority district.

District 39 (light tan-yellow)

Incumbent: Linda Sanchez (D)

25% white, 19% Asian, 48% Hispanic

Linda Sanchez’s new district is very similar to the 38th, except its Orange County parts are more Asian. It includes large Vietnamese communities in Garden Grove and takes a chunk of Anaheim. The 39th district needs to extend deeply into the heart of Los Angeles County because the border cities of Artesia, Lakewood, and Cerritos are not super-liberal. However, South Gate and the unincorporated region just south of Huntington Park are, and secure the district for Sanchez, who fortuitously is placed right next to her sister, Loretta.

District 40 (red-brown)

Incumbent: none

29% white, 10% Asian, 56% Hispanic

What is currently the 40th district, in Orange County, is completely dissected and relocated into central Los Angeles County. Its basic purpose is to contain all of the non-Asian areas north of Judy Chu’s 32nd district. Glendora, at the east end, is rich and Republican, but is far outweighed by Pasadena, Monrovia, Los Angeles, and the unincorporated region south of Los Angeles. If it needs to be made thicker, it can take a strip of Angeles National Forest during the actual mapping and add barely any people.

District 41 (pastel gray)

Incumbent: Jerry Lewis (R)

68% white, 22% Hispanic

The 41st district is the main sponge for Republican votes in the Inland Empire. It takes the white parts of Murrieta, Temecula, Redlands, Hemet, and San Jacinto, and all of Hesperia, Apple Valley, Yucaipa, Yucca Valley, Calimesa, and others. It also curves into Indian Wells, Rancho Mirage, La Quinta, and Palm Desert in the Coachella Valley. Its lines might seem awkward, but that’s partially because the block groups in San Bernardino and Riverside Counties tend to be quite large.

District 42 (lime green)

Incumbent: None

36% white, 9% black, 9% Asian, 41% Hispanic

The 42nd district is almost completely displaced, sharing only the city of Chino Hills and a small edge of Orange County with the current 42nd district. It contains all of Perris and Moreno Valley, which have surprisingly large black populations. It strikes through the minority-heavy blocks of Murrieta and Temecula, and then takes a small part of Yorba Linda in order to get to Los Angeles County. 60 000 people from Pomona strengthen Democrats further and is responsible for the Hispanic plurality.

District 43 (magenta)

Incumbent: Joe Baca (D)

20% white, 12% black, 5% Asian, 59% Hispanics

The 43rd district edges east into the Hispanic parts of Redlands, adding Highlands and dropping Ontario. Joe Baca remains perfectly safe here, and in fact this district is probably still quite stacked with Democratic votes. Baca can share the wealth with the 44th district if California politicians think that a Democrat would have a hard time getting elected there.

District 44 (dark magenta)

Incumbent: Ken Calvert (R)

36% white, 5% black, 7% Asian, 47% Hispanic

The population of the redistricted 44th district lies entirely within the current 44th district, a testament to the Inland Empire’s powerful growth. It includes all of the city of Riverside and most of Corona, where Ken Calvert lives. The slab of Orange County that is removed, including San Juan Capistrano and San Clemente, was responsible for keeping Calvert in Congress in 2008, so he will no doubt have significant problems surviving in the Democratic part of his district.

District 45 (turquoise)

Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack (R)

39% white, 50% Hispanic

The new incarnation of the 45th district may look absurd, stretching from the Inland Empire all the way to Lake Tahoe, but there actually is a strong community-of-interest argument for putting the resort areas in the same district. It may seem counterintuitive to cut Democratic Moreno Valley out of the district, but strongly conservative Murrieta is also removed. Only the minority parts of Hemet and San Jacinto remain, while Desert Hot Springs and minority parts of Banning and Beaumont are included. Due in part to natural growth, Hispanics attain a majority of the population.

District 46 (pastel orange red)

Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher (R)

39% white, 12% black, 10% white, 35% Hispanic

Ironically, this district becomes more Democratic even while swapping swing city Costa Mesa for very Republican Newport Beach. It maintains all of Huntington Beach and Seal Beach (interestingly, Huntington Beach, which is largely white, recorded the most votes of any city in Orange County in 2008, even more than Anaheim, which is much more populous), and the strip across coastal Long Beach is widened. Instead of proceeding to the Palos Verdes Peninsula, though, the new 46th turns north and adds all of Compton, Carson, and Lynwood; Compton was the most Democratic city in California in 2008!

District 47 (light lavender)

Incumbent: Loretta Sanchez (D)

16% white, 12% Asian, 68% Hispanic

The 47th district expands to include all of Santa Ana, and flows toward Anaheim via Orange rather than via Garden Grove. That causes a slight decrease in the Asian population and a corresponding increase in the Hispanic population. This district may not seem especially stable, considering the capricious turnout of the Latino base, but it should gradually become more and more Democratic as Hispanic participation in the political process increases.

District 48 (pastel orange)

Incumbent: John Campbell (R)

58% white, 15% Asian, 22% Hispanic

John Campbell’s district is probably the most swingish of all the new districts. Obama’s performance edges up several points with the removal of Newport Beach and most of Lake Forest, replaced by Costa Mesa and a slice of Orange. With Irvine’s abrupt shift leftward and the Laguna region’s social liberalism, John Campbell’s days in Congress are probably numbered. If a candidate about as strong as Beth Krom were to run in 2012, with Obama’s coattails, Campbell would probably lose.

District 49 (pastel red-brown)

Incumbent: Darrell Issa (R), Brian Bilbray (R), Duncan Hunter (R)

74% white, 6% Asian, 15% Hispanic

The Republican primary in this ultra-conservative, ultra-Republican district should be very interesting to watch, as each candidate tries to appeal to the Orange County part as the tiebreaker. Darrell Issa’s base is the northern part of the district within San Diego, Brian Bilbray’s the left leg, and Duncan Hunter’s the right leg. Issa probably has the upper hand in the Orange County area, since he represents Riverside County adjacent to it, but he also has the smallest preexisting base.

District 50 (metallic blue)

Incumbent: None

49% white, 13% Asian, 30% Hispanic

This is one of the few districts that is very oddly shaped. Anchored in San Diego, it drifts north on two legs, picking up the parts of the coastal cities that are not included in the 53rd district and the minority parts of Vista and Escondido. It can dive further into San Diego if it is seen as necessary, but it has already dropped loads of conservative territory.

District 51 (dark brown)

Incumbent: Bob Filner (D)

33% white, 7% Asian, 53% Hispanic

The tendril along the United States-Mexico borderline is widened to comprise of a vast majority of San Diego County’s area. It still includes almost all of Chula Vista and the southern foot of San Diego, but National City is removed in favor of more conservative Coronado and Imperial Beach, covering all of California’s border with Mexico. A small abutment juts into the Hispanic parts of El Cajon. Even if Democratic performance decreases several points, the presence of Democratic and heavily Hispanic Imperial County will keep Filner safe.

District 52 (olive green)

Incumbent: None

40% white, 9% black, 14% Asian, 32% Hispanic

The 52nd district contracts by shedding sparsely populated regions in outer San Diego County and absorbs many Hispanic parts of San Diego. Santee and Poway are also milked for what they’re worth. In total, the black and Hispanic parts probably pushes the district to at least the upper 50s in Obama performance, and if Duncan Hunter even tries here, he’ll be squashed.

District 53 (metallic gray) (God I hate working with this color)

Incumbent: Susan Davis (D)

58% white, 8% Asian, 26% Hispanic

The 53rd district is removed from inner San Diego city and made more of a coastline district. The high white population may seem daunting, but coastal San Diego whites tend to be much more liberal than their inland counterparts. Susan Davis has experience winning in a lean Democratic district (that’s how she was elected in 2000), so even if this district is much less Democratic than before, she should have very little difficulty.

• CA-Sen: Rasmussen piggybacked another California Senate poll on their gubernatorial poll from yesterday. Despite finding some gains for Meg Whitman yesterday, they don’t see any improvement for Carly Fiorina or Chuck DeVore. Barbara Boxer leads Fiorina 46-37 (it was 49-39 in September) and DeVore 46-36 (previously 46-37).

• DE-Sen: Mike Castle’s fundraising was weak earlier this year (in fact, that was why most people figured he wasn’t going to run for Senate), but now Republican Senators are moving to quickly fill up his coffers. Four Senators gave large contributions, the largest being $10,000 from Thad Cochran. Castle had $853K in his last report.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: The shortest possible explanation in New York is that nobody still has the faintest clue what Rudy Giuliani is up to. Food for thought, though, comes from the new Marist poll (pdf). They find Giuliani beating Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand 54-40. They also found Giuliani with the upper hand in a potential (if extremely unlikely) primary against ex-Gov. George Pataki; Giuliani demolishes him, 71-24. (For some reason, Marist didn’t poll Gillibrand/Pataki, but Rasmussen just did, finding Gillibrand beating Pataki 45-42. Rasmussen didn’t poll Gillibrand/Giuliani, though.)

Marist (pdf) also has gubernatorial numbers, which don’t offer any surprises beyond the sheerly absurd dimensions of David Paterson’s unpopularity. Paterson has a 20/76 approval, and a 30/63 verdict on whether people want him to run for re-election. Paterson loses the primary to Andrew Cuomo, 72-21, although he ties Rick Lazio in the general, 44-44. Cuomo makes short work of Lazio, 69-24. They also have Giuliani numbers (which are looking obsolete now): Rudy annihilates Lazio in the primary, 84-13, and beats Paterson 60-35, but loses to Cuomo, 53-43.

• CA-Gov: Republican Ex-Rep. Tom Campbell announces that he’s passed the $1 million cumulative mark in fundraising for the gubernatorial race, which indicates he’s at least getting some traction as people notice he’s polling well. In most states, that would be pretty impressive. In California, where you have to reach more than 30 million sets of eyeballs and where $1 million is Meg Whitman’s budget just for ivory backscratchers, though, it’s kind of a drop in the bucket.

• OR-Gov: As quickly as he appeared, he went away; former Hewlett-Packard VP Steve Shields pulled the plug on his brief Democratic gubernatorial campaign, not having had much luck on the fundraising front. Meanwhile, SoS Bill Bradbury got a big boost in his uphill climb against ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber. Bradbury’s environmentalist bona fides earned him an endorsement from Al Gore. (Also a likely factor: a long-running behind-the-scenes feud between Kitz and Gore.)

• TX-Gov: Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison are both out with TV ads as they enter the stretch run toward their March gubernatorial primary. Perry attacks Washington (and by extension, KBH, who works there), while KBH is more intent on explaining that she’s keeping her Senate job to fight against Democratic health care proposals.

• CO-07: Going from being a music promoter to a Representative is a strange career leap, but that’s what Jimmy Lakey is fixing to do. The Colorado Republican has opened an exploratory committee to go up against Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter, although he’ll need to get past Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier (who dropped down from the Senate race) first.

• FL-02: Al Lawson, the African-American state Senator who’s challenging Blue Dog Rep. Allen Boyd in a Democratic primary, is out with an internal poll via The Research Group that actually gives Lawson the lead: 35-31. Boyd was a vote against health care reform and the stimulus, which may provide him some cover in the general in this now R+9 district, but probably hurts him in the primary, where African-Americans make up a sizable portion of the Democratic electorate.

• IA-03: The appearance yesterday of well-known wrasslin’ coach Jim Gibbons was no deterrent to state Sen. Brad Zaun, setting up an epic smackdown in the GOP primary. Zaun, formerly the mayor of Des Moines suburb Urbandale, had made clear his interest in the race before Gibbons surfaced; he’ll formally launch his campaign in early December.

• IL-10: State Rep. Beth Coulson, probably the only Republican in the field in the 10th with the name rec and moderate profile needed to overcome the 10th’s Democratic lean, is meeting with RNC head Michael Steele today to discuss her campaign — the same Steele who has warned moderates that, in the wake of NY-23, he’s gunning for them. She’s loudly touting the meeting in the press, although it’s unclear whether she’s trying to make clear she’s a GOP team player, or that she’s trying to play up her moderate reputation by standing up to Steele.

• MD-01: If there’s one freshman Democrat who’s looking endangered coming into 2010, it’s Frank Kratovil, who barely won in a dark-red district thanks in large measure to a lousy opponent (Andy Harris) and an Obama downdraft. The Harris camp is now out with an internal poll via the Tarrance Group that quantifies that, giving that same lousy opponent a 52-39 edge over Kratovil, despite Kratovil’s 43/30 favorables.

• MN-01: Former state Rep. Allen Quist followed through on his plans to challenge Rep. Tim Walz in the rural 1st District. Quist has been out of the limelight for a while, but was a darling of the religious right in the 1990s; his wife is Michele Bachmann’s district director.

• NY-23: Appropriately enough, given that Fort Drum is the largest employer in his district, Bill Owens was given a seat on the Armed Services Committee, taking former Rep. Ellen Tauscher’s spot. Owens himself is a former Air Force captain, and his predecessor, Army Secretary John McHugh, had been the top-ranking Republican on the committee. (D)

Also in the 23rd, it’s all over but the shouting of the wronged wingnuts. The Watertown Times reports that Owens leads Hoffman by 3,105 with 3,072 absente ballots left to count. Also worth noting is the increasingly hostile tone of the Watertown Times (maybe the district’s largest newspaper) to Hoffman and his post-electoral antics, which bodes ill for getting a fair shake out of them if he runs again.

• NRCC: There’s a very important addendum to yesterday’s story about the NRCC’s big TV spot ad buy to go against Vic Snyder, John Spratt, and Earl Pomeroy. The total of the ad buy was $6,300, including only 35 gross rating points in the Charlotte market (2,000 GRPs are considered “saturation-level”), and the ads are running only on Fox News. In other words, the cash-strapped NRCC isn’t paying for anybody to actually see the ads — they’re just a foot in the door to get media coverage of the ads.

• Redistricting: The DLCC’s blog has an interesting look at the redistricting conundrums in Louisiana, where the loss of a House seat and a Katrina-remodeled population loom large. Dems ostensibly control the legislature but also face a Republican gubernatorial veto (although Dems control the tiebreaking Supreme Court, too).

• AR-Sen: PPP’s Tom Jensen has some interesting crosstabs from their AR-02 poll, which shed some light on Blanche Lincoln’s unique set of problems. Lincoln generates only lukewarm enthusiasm from her base: Barack Obama gets a 78% approval among Dems in the district, Rep. Vic Snyder is at 75%, and Mark Pryor is at 61%, but Lincoln is at only 43%, with 30% of Dems thinking she’s too conservative (although that may be coming to a head right now with her obstructionist role in the health care debate, which may not be much of an issue one year from now). Moving to the left, though, will cause her to lose votes with independents, though, among whom 49% think she’s too liberal.

• CT-Sen, CT-05: Local GOP party poohbahs are sounding eager to push state Sen. Sam Caligiuri out of the Senate race, where he’s rather, uh, underutilized, and into the 5th, for a race against Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy; Caligiuri says he’ll consider it. Problem is, Justin Bernier is already running there, and has had some fundraising success and gotten NRCC “Young Gun” status; as you might expect, Bernier is crying foul.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist has been trying to hide from his previous stimulus support, but Rolling Stone’s Tim Dickinson has the goods on him, dragging out an old interview from spring in which Crist says “absolutely” he would have voted for the stimulus had he been in the Senate at the time. Here’s one bit of good news for Crist, though; Marco Rubio‘s once-perfect A rating from the National Rifle Association is about to drop, thanks to Rubio’s compromise (from back when he was House speaker) on the take-your-gun-to-work law that recently became law.

• IL-Sen: Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman has an internal poll of his own now, and while it doesn’t give numbers for the Dem primary matchup between Hoffman and frontrunner Alexi Giannoulias, it does point to some vulnerabilities for Giannoulias. The poll claims that without message-testing, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk leads Giannoulias 40-37 and leads Hoffman 40-30, but once positives and negatives are read, Kirk beats Giannoulias 47-30 and Hoffman beats Kirk 42-36. The negatives involve the Giannoulias family bank, which apparently has been connected to Tony Rezko. Meanwhile, Kirk took an embarrassing hit from the conservative Chicago Tribune editorial board, whose response to Kirk’s flip-flopping and fearmongering on trying terrorists in New York boiled down to “Give us a break.” Wondering why Kirk is so transparently turning into a right-winger? Kirk’s looking increasingly nervous about erstwhile opponent Patrick Hughes, who is currently seeking out a Jim DeMint endorsement.

• KY-Sen, NH-Sen: The NRSC is claiming it’s not getting involved in primary fights with fundraising, but you can’t make party leadership’s intentions any clearer than when Mitch McConnell hosts a fundraiser in New York on Dec. 7 for Trey Grayson and Kelly Ayotte. With both candidates facing mounting anti-establishment challenges, it seems like the bad publicity back home generated by these appearances — more grist for the movement conservative mill — might outweigh the financial benefit.

• NJ-Sen: Now that recently unemployed TV pundit Lou Dobbs has some time on his hands, he told Bill O’Reilly he’s considering a run for the Senate in New Jersey. There isn’t a seat available until 2012 (when Dobbs will be 67) — he’d be going up against Bob Menendez that year. Dobbs vs. Menendez? Hmmm, you can’t get any more weighed down with symbolism than that.

• SC-Sen: The county GOP in Berkeley County (in the Charleston suburbs) was prepared to have its own censure vote against Lindsey Graham, but they called off the vote after Graham’s chief of staff promised to meet with them first.

• CA-Gov (pdf): Lots of people have taken notice that the Republican field in the governor’s race isn’t a diverse bunch: three sorta-moderates from Silicon Valley. San Jose State University took a poll of those who would seemingly know the candidates the best: Republican likely voters in “Silicon Valley” (Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties, plus small parts of Alameda and Santa Cruz Counties). Perhaps thanks to Tom Campbell’s tenure in the House representing much of this area, he has a wide lead, at 39%, compared with 11 for Meg Whitman and 7 for Steve Poizner.

• MI-Gov, MI-08: In case there was any doubt that Rep. Mike Rogers (the Michigan one) was going to run for re-election to his House seat and not for governor, we found a statement from way back in February to that effect. (H/t to Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood, a blog devoted to all things MI-08.)

• MN-Gov: Rasmussen looks at the still-coalescing primary fields in the Minnesota governor’s races, and seems to be finding very name-recognition-driven results right now. On the Democratic side, most of the votes are going to former Senator Mark Dayton and Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak; both poll at 30, trailed by state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 8 and former state legislator Matt Entenza at 6. On the Republican side, ex-Sen. Norm Coleman dominates, with 50%; however, he’s not in the race, at least not yet, and is probably the only name that people know. Among the rest of the rabble, former House minority leader Marty Seifert is doing the best, at 11, with 5 for Laura Brod and 1 for Tom Emmer.

• OR-Gov: Most people have already mentally ruled out Rep. Peter DeFazio from the governor’s race, but he just said that he’s still somewhat interested, and that he won’t be making up his mind on it until… next March? He doesn’t seem too concerned about the delay, as Oregon law would let him transfer over his federal dollars and he alludes to private polling showing him in a dead heat with John Kitzhaber. While I still doubt he’ll follow through, that raises the question of who might fill a vacancy in OR-04; it’s looking less and less like it would be Springfield’s Republican mayor Sid Leiken, who was just fined $2,250 by the state for the phantom poll that may or may not have been conducted by Leiken’s mom.

• TX-Gov: Little-known fact: Kay Bailey Hutchison, despite the seeming overall malaise in her campaign, has a big edge in endorsements from Texas House Republicans. She has the endorsements of 10 of 20 (including Kay Granger, Kenny Marchant, and Michael Burgess), perhaps indicative of Rick Perry’s increasingly strident anti-Washington rhetoric. (Not that that will help much when the actual electorate is in an increasingly anti-establishment mood.) A couple other Dems are looking at the race: hair care magnate Farouk Shami (who’s willing to bring his own money to the race) is officially launching his campaign on Thursday, while El Paso-based outgoing state Sen. Eliot Shapleigh is publicly weighing a run.

• FL-19: West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel, who would have been maybe the highest-profile possible primary challenger to state Sen. Ted Deutch in the upcoming special election in the 19th, has decided not to run. Deutch has been endorsed by outgoing Robert Wexler and has an increasingly clear path to the nomination. Meanwhile, the only GOPer looking interested in running in the dark-blue district is Ed Lynch, who lost to Wexler last year.

• IL-06: Here’s a little more information about Benjamin Lowe, who’s the only Dem running in the 6th against Peter Roskam. While he’s something of a political unknown, it turns out he’s well-connected in the religious left community as well as the green jobs movement. He’s a graduate of evangelical Wheaton College (which is in the district) and has been active in the last few years in organizing students at other evangelical colleges on issues of environmental stewardship.

• NY-13: I don’t know if anything can top last year’s NY-13 race for political trainwrecks, but the Staten Island GOP may have gotten switched onto that same track again. Michael Allegretti, a 31-year old who caught attention for raising $200K for the race already, is a lawyer who also owns a share of the family business, Bayside Fuel and Oil — which employed Gambino family capo Joe “Joe Butch” Corrao for several decades. Over $40K of Allegretti’s contributions came from family members working for Bayside. To add to the made-for-TV drama: Allegretti’s potential Republican primary opponent, Michael Grimm, was on the FBI squad charged with investigating said crime family.

• NY-19: Republican Greg Ball — who puts the “Ass” in Assemblyman — is out with an internal poll putting him within single digits of Rep. John Hall. Hall leads the Hall/Ball matchup, 48-43 — although for some reason the poll was taken only in the portion of the district that’s east of the Hudson River. Hall still has strong favorables, at 57/25, while Ball is at 40/28.

• NY-23: Recounting in NY-23 is still on track to see Rep. Bill Owens remain in the House; Doug Hoffman is down 2,951 votes with 6,123 left, so about the best he can hope for is to lose by about 2,000. The Hoffman saga just got weirder when yesterday Hoffman, goaded along by his patron Glenn Beck, unconceded on national TV — yet today, his spokesperson un-un-conceded, not that any of that is legally binding, of course.

• NRCC: If the Republicans are going to make a serious dent in the Democratic edge in the House next year, they’re going to have to refill the NRCC’s coffers, which are still lagging the DCCC. Party leadership smacked down members in a closed-door session, trying to get them to pony up their $15K dues. The Hill also has an interesting profile of CA-22’s Kevin McCarthy, an up-and-comer who’s the NRCC recruitment chair now and likely to head the NRCC at some point in the near future. Turns out that McCarthy is quite the student of Rahm Emanuel.

• Mayors: SurveyUSA polls the runoff in the Atlanta mayor’s race, and they have quite the reversal of fortune for Mary Norwood, who led all polls before November and finished first in the election. State Sen. Kasim Reed, who finished 2nd, now leads Norwood, 49-46. Reed leads 69-25 among African-American voters, indicating that he picked up almost all of 3rd-place finisher Lisa Borders’ support.

• Special elections: Two legislative specials are on tap tonight. The big one is California’s AD-72, a Republican-leaning seat in the OC left vacant by the resignation of Mike Duvall (who resigned in disgrace after bragging about his affair with a lobbyist). It seems to be mostly a contest between two GOPers, Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby and activist Linda Ackerman (who’s been making much of Norby’s four divorces). Since this is California, assuming one of the Republicans doesn’t finish over 50%, it’ll move on to another round where the top Republican faces off against Dem John MacMurray. Also, in Mississippi, there’s a contest in Biloxi-based HD-117, to replace Republican state Rep. Michael Janus; candidates aren’t identified by party on the special election ballot, but the contestants are Patrick Collins (who ran against Janus several times) and Scott DeLano.

• Redistricting: You might want to check out the website called “Redistricting the Nation,” presented by GIS software company Avencia but full of fun widgets. Most interestingly, you can evaluate the compactness of any congressional district by four different criteria, and see the worst offenders in each category.

• FL-Sen: Here’s a big score for Marco Rubio, who’s quickly cementing himself as darling for the conservative movement. He got the keynote address at CPAC’s 2010 gathering, the conservative movement’s version of Lollapalooza. Charlie Crist‘s response? Re-flip-flop on the stimulus! Today he said it was “pretty clear” he did support it at the time. The civil war in Florida is also resulting in a larger spotlight being shone on state party chair (and key Crist ally) Jim Greer, who’s the subject of an interesting (and very critical) Miami Herald piece.

• KY-Sen: A strange kerfuffle erupted in the GOP primary in Kentucky, when Rand Paul earlier this week declined to promise to support Mitch McConnell for minority leader in the face of a hypothetical leadership challenge by Jim DeMint. Paul’s rival, SoS Trey Grayson, pledged fealty to McConnell and attacked Paul for being more beholden to his “Libertarian donor base” than his fellow Kentuckians. Then, yesterday, Paul met privately with McConnell in Louisville, and after having had his brain implant installed a productive conversation, emerged filled with praise for McConnell and saying he had “no reason not to support him.”

• MA-Sen (pdf): Another poll from local pollsters Suffolk give a big lead to AG Martha Coakley, who’s pulling in 44% of the Democratic primary vote. She’s trailed by Stephen Pagliuca at 17, Rep. Michael Capuano at 16, and Alan Khazei at 3. (Coakley was at 47 and Capuano at 9 in September according to Suffolk.) Also, there appears to be one route to victory for Republican state Sen. Scott Brown: make sure that Alan Khazei somehow wins the primary. Brown beats Khazei 33-30, while losing 58-27 to Coakley, 48-29 to Capuano, and 49-27 to Pagliuca. (Brown leads perennial candidate Jack E. Robinson 45-7 in the GOP primary.)

Meanwhile, Capuano got another endorsement from among the ranks of his House colleagues, this one pretty high-profile: Nancy Pelosi. Pagliuca, on the other hand, is trying to dig out of his self-created hole, when he “misunderstood” a debate question and said that he supports reinstating a military draft.

• AL-Gov: Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks seems to have hit on an issue that differentiates him from Rep. Artur Davis in their Democratic gubernatorial primary fight: health care reform. Davis voted against it (seemingly earning him the sudden enmity of the entire netroots), and now Sparks has been loudly touting the public option, as he did at an appearance before the Madison County Democratic Women yesterday.

• CO-Gov: State Senate minority leader Josh Penry thumbed his nose rather unsubtly at ex-Rep. Scott McInnis as he departed the governor’s primary race, saying in a recent interview that not only was he not endorsing McInnis, but also that he still felt that he would be the better candidate. Is he heading for a Tom Tancredo endorsement instead? (After all, Tancredo did a lot to boost Penry’s campaign.) We can only hope.

• IL-Gov: State GOP chair (and would-be Mark Kirk antagonist) Andy McKenna got a substantial boost in his quest for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. He got the endorsement of Tom Cross, the state House minority leader.

• MD-Gov: Republican ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich seems to be giving more weight to the idea of a rematch against Martin O’Malley, if recent comments to the press are any indication. The Republican gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey may be giving him some added incentive.

• TX-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Rick Perry opening up a big lead over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican gubernatorial primary: 45-36, with 4% to Paulist Debra Medina. This is a big reversal from September’s Rasmussen poll, which gave KBH a 40-38 edge. Hutchison is still racing to the right, as she said that she’d be likely to try to opt out of the public option as governor, but Perry is leading that race too, cheerfully let us know that Barack Obama is “hell-bent on taking America towards a socialist country.”

• DE-AL: State Rep. Greg Lavelle, one of the names dropped by Rep. Mike Castle as suggestions for a successor, said that he won’t take on the uphill task of trying to hold Castle’s seat. Businessman Fred Cullis is the only Republican running so far.

• NC-11: Rep. Heath Shuler’s role in a 2007 land swap has the potential to hurt him next year. The Tennessee Valley Authority’s inspector general cleared him of wrongdoing in the matter (as did the House Ethics committee), but the TVA is saying that Shuler wasn’t honest to the press about it, when he said that there hadn’t been any contact between himself and the TVA.

• NY-23: Although there’s nothing to suggest that Doug Hoffman is in a place where he can catch up to Bill Owens, it’ll still be a while till the election can be certified — possibly not till early next month. (Unfortunately, this means putting off the final results of our predictions contest from last week! We’ll keep you posted.)

• SC-04: Republican Rep. Bob Inglis keeps backing away from his party’s right wing (and probably away from his job, in his dark-red district). He said that he can’t “identify” with what we called the “hard right.” Interestingly, he still identifies as “religious right,” but seems to counterpose that against the teabaggers’ movement, also saying: “As a religious right guy, I’m thinking there was a guy named Jesus who had some things to say about these kinds of concepts. And I don’t want to live in a society that lets a few test cases die on the steps of the hospital. I can’t go there.”

• VA-St. Sen.: The Democrats still control the Virginia state Senate (thanks to none of its seats being in the balance in the election last week), but it’s a fragile 21-19 edge. Especially troublesome: 83-year-old Charles Colgan only reluctantly ran for reelection in 2007, Ralph Northam considered flipping to the Republicans earlier this year, and now Bob McDonnell seems interested in taking a page from Steve Beshear and Eliot Spitzer by appointing Senate Dems to cushy jobs in his administration. On the plus side, though, there are two special elections coming up, to replace Republicans who were elected to other positions last week. The seat of Ken Stolle (new Virginia Beach sheriff) is pretty Republican-leaning, but new AG Ken Cuccinelli’s seat in Democratic-leaning Fairfax County is a potential pickup.

• Redistricting: This is interesting; Republicans keep pushing to make redistricting fairer in Indiana, despite that they’ll control the process coming out of the next census. SoS Todd Rokita has already pushed for laws to make it a more neutral process, and now state Senate President Pro Tem David Long is pushing for an independent commission to draw legislative boundaries.

• Votes: Here’s a first: Republicans actually regretting doing something wrong. They’re privately saying that they “failed to anticipate” the political consequences of a no vote on the Franken amendment, that leaves them exposed to charges of insensitivity to rape victims and hands ammo to Democrats. (Well, maybe that’s more regretting getting caught, rather than regretting doing something wrong…)

• OFA: Organizing for America is firing up the Batsignal, summoning volunteers on the ground in 32 districts that were won by Obama but are held by House Republicans. The plan is for the volunteers to visit the Reps’ offices and demand support for health care reform.

• CT-Sen: Rumors are popping up that ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, still the GOP Senate primary’s frontrunner by most people’s estimation but financially outgunned on a variety of different fronts, may switch to the now-open gubernatorial race. Simmons, however, says his plans are “unchanged,” and touts his foreign policy background, saying that’s much more useful in the Senate. Meanwhile, an interesting CQ piece looks at pro wrestling svengali Linda McMahon’s role in the race, and wonders whether her vast fortunes will really help her that much in a state where a convention attended by party insiders (where Simmons would be favored) is decisive in shaping the field. (Although even if she doesn’t win the convention outright or meet the 15% threshold for getting on the ballot, she can still get on the ballot by collecting enough signatures — certainly an expensive process, but one she could pay for with whatever change she finds under her couch cushions.)

• FL-Sen: Here’s about as close as you can get to a Jeb Bush endorsement without his lips actually moving. Bush’s sons, Jeb Bush Jr. and George P. Bush, are headlining a Marco Rubio fundraiser in mid-December.

• CT-Gov: Ned Lamont is already staffing up, and a familiar face is going to be one of his key advisors: Howard Wolfson. Wolfson was adviser to Lamont in 2006, but is better known for his lead role in Hillary Clinton’s campaign last year, as well as Michael Bloomberg’s campaign this year.

• MN-Gov: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak ran into a snafu with his campaign still on the launching pad, as the state’s campaign finance board ruled that he spent money on his campaign before he’d filed the campaign paperwork. Rybak paid for a message-testing poll, although it didn’t directly ask questions about the governor’s race. If you want to see the whole polling memo (not something you usually get to see with internal polls), check it out.

• WI-Gov: Politics abhors a vacuum, and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is acting quickly to fill the vacuum that has formed on the Democratic side of the gubernatorial race. He says he’ll make a decision “one way or the other” by the week’s end.

• CO-04: Although state Rep. Cory Gardner is clearly the NRCC’s favorite in the Republican field, that didn’t deter former Ft. Collins city councilor Diggs Brown, who will be announcing his candidacy on Saturday. He had been considered a likely candidate all year, but was on a year-long Army deployment and unable to announce until now. Univ. of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero rounds out the trio of GOPers seeking to take on first-term Dem Rep. Betsy Markey.

• FL-13: James Golden, an African-American minister, attorney and former Bradenton city councilor, launched his campaign last week against Rep. Vern Buchanan. Golden will face an uphill fight against the self-funding Buchanan — unless Buchanan, facing ongoing scrutiny over mysterious campaign finance machinations, goes down in a legal implosion.

• ID-01: This may be a surprise, or may not — state House majority leader Ken Roberts withdrew from the GOP primary race to take on freshman Dem Rep. Walt Minnick. Roberts cited health reasons. Roberts initially would have seemed to have a leg up based on name recognition, but veteran and former McCain campaign official Vaughn Ward seemed to be capturing most of the buzz, including a good fundraising start and NRCC touting.

• IN-03: Democrats have taken notice in the last few cycles of Rep. Mark Souder’s decidedly lackadaisical approach to re-election in this dark-red district, but now someone from the teabaggy right is taking notice too, and launching a primary campaign. Republican Attorney Phil Troyer (a former staffer to Dick Lugar and Dan Coats) announced his campaign today. (This seems less like an ideological challenge, as Souder is down-the-line conservative, as just opportunistic, taking advantage of his sloth.) Tom Hayhurst, who narrowly lost in 2006, is on track to the Democratic nod again.

• MN-03: Add a second Democratic challenger to the list in the 3rd: Minnesota PTA president, and executive director of the Minnesota Optometrists Association, Jim Meffert filed to run. He joins psychiatrist Maureen Hackett; they may still both be joined by state Sen. Teri Bonoff, although Meffert says that Bonoff has hinted to him that she’s likely to take a pass.

• NJ-03: Best wishes to state Sen. Diane Allen, who is entering treatment for an aggressive form of cancer. The moderate Allen, who lost the 2002 Senate primary and was short-listed for Lt. Governor this year, had been considered a possible candidate against Rep. John Adler in the 3rd.

• NV-02: We’ve got another Democrat lined up to go against Rep. Dean Heller in the 2nd (after Cindy Trigg dropped out several months ago), and he has a strong resume. Jack Schofield is a member of the state’s Board of Regents, and is a former state Senator. Unfortunately, he may not be running the most vigorous campaign in the world, as he was a state Senator in the 1970s, and is a World War II veteran (do the math).

• NY-23: The Washington Post has a nice, human-level retrospective on Dede Scozzafava’s collapse in the special election and the difference in how the GOP and the Dems treated her, leading to her Bill Owens endorsement. Meanwhile, things continue to play out, as Scozzafava either stepped down from or was stripped of her leadership role in the Assembly Republicans, depending on who you believe. Start counting down to her party switch (not that the Assembly Dems need the help, what with their 109-41 margin).

• OH-02: What’s with all these former Apprentice contestants thinking that’s somehow a stepping stone to political office? Surya Yalimanchili is now planning to run as an independent in the 2nd, currently held by GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt. He’s sounding centrist notes so far rather than sounding teabaggy, though, so he may not help the Dems too much by siphoning off far-right Republican votes.

• PA-07: One more Democrat is getting into the open seat field in the 7th, although it’s unclear whether she’ll get much traction against state Rep. Bryan Lentz. Environmental lawyer Gail Conner, an Obama convention delegate last year, threw her hat into the ring.

• PA-11: Third time’s the charm? It looks like Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta will give crusty Dem incumbent Paul Kanjorski another challenge next year. Barletta fell just a few points shy of knocking off Kanjorski last year, prompting Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien to enter the Democratic primary for the seat. With pressure from both sides, one has to wonder if Kanjo will hit the eject button. (J)

• PA-17: Here’s an example of how voting against health care reform does Blue Dogs a fat lot of good: Rep. Tim Holden got about two days of peace before a Republican state Senator started making noises about a campaign against him anyway. Holden has had little in the way of opposition recently, but now he may face David Argall, who represents Holden’s coal-country turf of Schuylkill County. Relatedly, over in Ohio’s 16th, a Cleveland Plain Dealer profile of fellow anti-HCR vote John Boccieri shows how he managed to win over exactly no Republicans while ticking off his base.

• PA-19: With Republican Rep. Todd Platts looking to bail on the House and head over to the GAO, candidates are already scoping out the potential special election. Although it’s a dark-red district (R+12), one good-sounding Dem is gearing up: Ryan Sanders, real estate developer, president of the Red Lion Area Business Association, and most usefully, an organizer for the Obama campaign in York County.

• UT-02: More fallout from the health care reform vote: Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson (one of the ‘no’ votes) may, as a result, be facing a primary challenge from the left from state Sen. Scott McCoy (Utah’s only gay state Senator and one of its few liberals). The Salt Lake City-based district is still strongly Republican, although it hasn’t presented Matheson with much trouble lately.

• MI-St. Sen.: Here’s an interesting look at the fight by Dems to reclaim the state Senate in Michigan (currently held 22-16 by the GOP, but where the majority of seats are open next year), which would give them the redistricting trifecta. Even if they don’t pick it up (or do while losing the gubernatorial race), the state Supreme Court breaks any logjam, making next year’s Supreme Court elections paramount too. The article also contains a map of the Dems’ preferred redistricting plan, to turf out Rep. Vern Ehlers by creating a Dem-leaning 3rd District linking Grand Rapids and Muskegon.

• NH-St. Sen.: A special election will be happening in New Hampshire, giving the Dems the chance to add to their narrow lead in the state Senate there (they currently have a 14-10 edge). Republican state Sen. Ted Gatsas is poised to resign after having been elected Manchester mayor. Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley is set to get into the race, though several other state House Dems are looking at it too.

• Mayors: The Seattle mayor’s race has finally come to an end, with as late-breaking ballots are going more toward former local Sierra Club leader Mike McGinn. Joe Mallahan conceded after McGinn’s lead pushed up to nearly 5,000, for a 51-49 edge.

• Ads: In the wake of this weekend’s health care vote, the DNC is planning to target 32 House Republicans in Obama districts who voted ‘no.’ They aren’t planning on using paid media yet, but will use the OFA campaign e-mail lists to organize in those districts. Meanwhile, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee is promising ads against 10 ‘no’ votes, saying it’s “payback” time: Barrow, Shuler, Herseth Sandlin, Murphy, Altmire, Nye, Kissell, Adler, Kosmas, and Ross.

• Demographics: If you’re like me, you may spend a lot of time wondering how Scandinavian-Americans got so liberal and Dutch-Americans got so conservative. Dreaminonempty takes a look at ancestry and voting patterns in a very interesting diary at Open Left.

(Cross-posted on Calitics and the Daily Kos)

Back in August I posted a diary here re. redistricting California:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Since that time, Dave’s Redistricting Application has become available for the state.  The Application is an invaluable tool in doing these maps.  It has helped me greatly in trying to come up with a new, better version of a plan for the state.  I have also taken reader comments from my last diary into consideration in drawing this new plan for California.  The comments have helped me greatly in terms of refining the districts here.  As several readers rightfully noted, several of the districts I drew last time were not Democratic enough to assure that they would be virtually guaranteed to elect Democrats, and parts of the previous map were too gerrymandered.  Here’s my new version …

Like last time, I had several main goals in mind when redistricting California:

1.  Increase Democratic representation in the state delegation.

2.  Draw relatively compact districts that largely adhere to county and community lines.

3.  Increase number of minority-majority districts in the state.

4.  Protect incumbents (at least the Democratic ones).  Towards this goal, I have added a “measuring stick” of sorts to the analysis below.  For each district I provide a “TTP” number (Territory Transfer Percentage – for lack of a better label !) which does nothing more than provide the percentage of the new district’s territory (in terms of population) that was formerly a part of the current district (the Application makes this really easy.)  So, for example, in CA-7, the “TTP” is 79.  The proposed district contains much of the same territory as the current district, and 79% of the new district’s population was formerly a part of the old district; in other words, George Miller would be looking at a district where 79% of his new constituents are the same as his old constituents.

Under this plan, 35 districts are created where Obama had at least 62% of the vote and McCain had at most 36%.  Another 6 districts are ones which are 61-37, 61-38 or 60-38 Obama-McCain.  (All 41 of the districts mentioned went for John Kerry in 2004; including 34 where Bush had 45% of the vote or less in 2004.)  1 district was won by Obama 52-46.  The remaining 11 districts were all won by McCain (and in all 11 districts Bush received 60% or more of the vote in 2004).

In a “neutral” political climate, this plan should result in a net gain of 7 seats for the Democrats (Districts 3, 24, 25, 26, 45, 46, 50).  One additional seat, District 48, might prove to be competitive in the future.  Additionally, this map strengthens several Democratic-held districts, most notably District 11.

Under the new map, 4 new Hispanic-majority seats are created (Districts 16, 25, 26, 46) although it’s really only a net gain of 3 as CA-32 is turned from majority Hispanic to plurality Asian.  Additionally, the new CA-45 becomes 49% Hispanic and may become Hispanic-majority in the future, although in many parts of California, a district needs to be around 60% or more Hispanic to ensure representation.  All-in-all, 21 of 53 districts under the new plan are either Hispanic majority or plurality (including several GOP seats, where many Hispanics are still unregistered or are ineligible because they are non-citizens).  Several existing Hispanic-majority seats (most notably CA-28 and CA-51) become even more Hispanic, where the incumbents there may face a challenge in the Democratic primary.

Districts 15 and 32 become plurality Asian districts.  (Btw, the demographic stats below include percentages for groups that total 10% or more of the population of a particular district).

MAPS:

District 1:

Incumbent: Mike Thompson

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34 (Kerry 58; Bush 41)

Demographics: white 68; hispanic 21

TTP: 34

This district combines parts of the current CA-1 (Napa and Lake Counties and parts of Sonoma Co. — Sonoma, Healdsburg) with added parts of Sonoma Co. (Santa Rosa, Rohnert Park, Cotati, Sebastopol), and parts of the central valley (including Chico and most of Butte Co.).  The new district is a bit less Democratic than the current one, but should still be very safe for blue dog Thompson (though he’s really not as conservative as other blue dogs).  Even though only about 34% of the new district’s territory is currently part of CA-1, another 35% is taken out of areas in Sonoma Co. currently in CA-6 which are even more progressive.  The remainder is in the central valley, but Thompson’s involvement with agricultural issues should be an added bonus in the rural areas of the district.

District 2:  

Incumbent: Wally Herger

Current District:  Obama 43; McCain 55

Proposed District:  Obama 39; McCain 59 (Kerry 33; Bush 66)

Demographics: white 72; hispanic 16

TTP: 69

Combines the most Republican parts of northern California into one district – all of Siskiyou, Modoc, Lassen, Shasta, Tehama, Plumas, Sierra, Yuba and Sutter Counties, as well as most of Colusa, small parts of Butte, and some of the most Republican parts of Placer.  District becomes even more Republican than the current CA-2.

District 3:  

Incumbent: Dan Lungren

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37 (Kerry 52; Bush 47)

Demographics: white 42; hispanic 23; asian 18; black 10

TTP: 17

The new district combines all of progressive Yolo County with purple to blue-leaning parts of Sacramento Co.; the district stays in the same general area but over 80% of the territory here is new.  A Democrat should do well running here.  In 2008 Lungren only won the current CA-3 by a 49.5 to 44 margin.  Democratic Gain !

District 4:  

Incumbent: Tom McClintock

Current District:  Obama 44; McCain 54

Proposed District:  Obama 45; McCain 53 (Kerry 39; Bush 60)

Demographics: white 80; hispanic 11

TTP: 75

The new CA-4 includes all of Nevada, El Dorado, Amador, Calaveras, Alpine and Mono Counties, as well as parts of Placer and Sacramento Counties.  Charlie Brown might have won last year by a sliver under the new lines (he only lost to McClintock by 0.5 point) but the new district is nevertheless a Republican one.

District 5:  

Incumbent: Doris Matsui

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34 (Kerry 55; Bush 44)

Demographics: white 57; hispanic 19; asian 10

TTP: 55

The new district combines most of the city of Sacramento with GOP-leaning suburbs in Sacramento Co.  The Democratic percentage goes down around 6 points, but the district remains safely Democratic.

District 6:

Incumbent: Lynn Woolsey

Current District:  Obama 76; McCain 22

Proposed District:  Obama 72; McCain 26 (Kerry 66; Bush 33)

Demographics: white 74; hispanic 15

TTP: 58

The new CA-6 includes Woolsey’s current territory — all of Marin and parts of Sonoma Counties.  Additional parts of the north coast are attached — all of Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino and Trinity Counties, as well as a part of northern Sonoma around Cloverdale.  The Democratic margin goes down a bit, but the progressive Woolsey should feel right at home in her new 72% Obama district that stretches along the entire length of the north coast from the Golden Gate to the Oregon border.

District 7:  

Incumbent: George Miller

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 27

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 33 (Kerry 61; Bush 38)

Demographics: white 43; hispanic 23; asian 15; black 12

TTP: 79

The boundaries of the new CA-7 adhere pretty closely to those of the current district.  The lines include most of Solano County as well as parts of Contra Costa Co. — Martinez,  Pinole, Hercules, San Pablo, Clayton and part of Concord.  The Democratic percentage goes down by about 6 points, as the district loses Richmond and expands more into Solano, but the district remains solidly Democratic.

District 8:  

Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi

Current District:  Obama 85; McCain 12

Proposed District:  Obama 85; McCain 13 (Kerry 85; Bush 14)

Demographics: white 44; asian 30; hispanic 15

TTP: 96

The San Francisco based CA-8 changes ever so slightly, as areas in the Sunset district are added to maintain equal population.

District 9:  

Incumbent: Barbara Lee

Current District:  Obama 88; McCain 10

Proposed District:  Obama 76; McCain 22 (Kerry 73; Bush 25)

Demographics: white 43; hispanic 20; black 17; asian 15

TTP: 56

Combines ultra-progressive areas in Oakland, Berkeley, Albany and Emeryville with more conservative (relatively speaking) areas in Contra Costa County (Moraga, Orinda, Lafayette, Walnut Creek, Danville, San Ramon, Brentwood), as well as Livermore in eastern Alameda Co.  Most African-American areas in Oakland remain in CA-9, even though other parts of Oakland are lost to the new CA-11.  The Democratic percentage goes down a lot, but as it started at 88% Obama, it can afford to fall a lot and still leave this a very solidly Democratic district.

District 10:  

Incumbent: John Garamendi

Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 32 (Kerry 60; Bush 39)

Demographics: white 48; hispanic 26; asian 11; black 10

TTP: 51

The new district is largely similar to the current one. Like the current district, it includes communities in Contra Costa, Solano and Sacramento Counties (some, such as Richmond in Contra Costa, have been added).  Livermore in Alameda Co. is taken out and is substituted by the addition of Lodi in San Joaquin Co.  Overall, the Democratic percentage goes up slightly.

District 11:  

Incumbent: Jerry McNerney

Current District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37 (Kerry 52; Bush 47)

Demographics: white 57; hispanic 21; asian 11

TTP: 34

Much of the district remains the same. Some light-blue to purple areas in Contra Costa, San Joaquin and Santa Clara Counties are detached while the district expands into parts of Oakland (blue as can be) and Stanislaus Co (purple).  The expansion into Oakland alone makes the Democratic percentage go up enough to make this a safer Democratic district.  Even though only about 34% of the new district’s territory is currently part of CA-11, another 31% comes out of Oakland and other progressive areas currently in CA-9 (the expansion into Oakland doesn’t hurt CA-9 at all).  

District 12:  

Incumbent: Jackie Speier

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Proposed District:  Obama 74; McCain 24 (Kerry 72; Bush 27)

Demographics: white 44; asian 30; hispanic 20

TTP: 91

The new district remains very similar to the current one.  Boundaries in San Francisco shift a bit, while in San Mateo Co., a part of Redwood City is added, so that now all of it is in CA-12.

District 13:

Incumbent: Pete Stark

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Proposed District:  Obama 74; McCain 24 (Kerry 71; Bush 28)

Demographics: asian 33; white 32; hispanic 24

TTP: 94

The new district is very similar to the current one.  It includes Fremont, Newark, Union City, Hayward, San Leandro and Alameda, and remains plurality Asian.

District 14:  

Incumbent: Anna Eshoo

Current District:  Obama 73; McCain 25

Proposed District:  Obama 72; McCain 26 (Kerry 67; Bush 31)

Demographics: white 59; asian 19; hispanic 15

TTP: 59

This is another Bay Area district that stays demographically similar to the current seat under this plan.  The district continues to closely overlap with Silicon Valley; it loses parts of Sunnyvale to the new CA-15 and Santa Cruz Co. areas to CA-17, but expands into new territory in Santa Clara Co. (Campbell, Los Gatos and parts of San Jose).

District 15:  

Incumbent: Mike Honda

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 30 (Kerry 63; Bush 36)

Demographics: asian 43; white 33; hispanic 18

TTP: 63

New district is centered on San Jose; though the boundaries change somewhat.  The district becomes plurality Asian, though it should be noted that the “Asian” population here includes persons from East Asia, South Asia and parts of the Middle East.

District 16:  

Incumbent: Zoe Lofgren

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 29

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35 (Kerry 57; Bush 42)

Demographics: hispanic 51; white 25; asian 18

TTP: 58

The new CA-16 combines the San Jose core of the current district with more conservative areas in the central valley.  The Democratic percentage goes down somewhat, but it remains a safely Democratic seat.  The district becomes majority Hispanic, but only by a bare majority.  Lofgren should have no trouble winning here as long as she wants to run, but if she decides to retire the seat may elect a Hispanic representative.

District 17:

Incumbent: Sam Farr

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 26

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35 (Kerry 57; Bush 42)

Demographics: white 62; hispanic 26

TTP: 50

The new district includes all of Santa Cruz County, coastal areas of Monterey County, interior areas of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, as well as portions of southern Santa Clara County (Morgan Hill and parts of San Jose).  It remains safely Democratic.

District 18:  

Incumbent: Dennis Cardoza

Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 38 (Kerry 50; Bush 49)

Demographics: hispanic 44; white 30; asian 14

TTP: 68

CA-18 remains similar to the current district in many respects, though it doesn’t look quite the same on a map.  Stockton and other areas in San Joaquin Co., parts of Modesto, and areas in Merced Co., which is Cardoza’s home area, form much of the district.  It remains plurality Hispanic.  The partisan breakdown inches up in the Democrat’s direction.  Blue dog Cardoza should have no trouble winning here.

District 19:  

Incumbent: George Radanovich

Current District:  Obama 46; McCain 52

Proposed District:  Obama 41; McCain 57 (Kerry 34; Bush 65)

Demographics: white 56; hispanic 33

TTP: 39

The new district becomes more Republican than the current one, as areas in Fresno County are shifted around; the goal is to make the neighboring CA-20 a bit more Democratic, as well as create a new Hispanic-majority, Democratic district next door (the new CA-25).  The new 19th includes all of Tuolumne and Mariposa Counties, most of Madera Co., and parts of Fresno, Kings and Tulare Counties.

District 20:  

Incumbent: Jim Costa

Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37 (Kerry 52; Bush 47)

Demographics: hispanic 69; white 16

TTP: 98

The district remains very similar to the current one, with a few areas shifted around to make it marginally more Democratic.  The district continues to include parts of the cities of Fresno and Bakersfield, as well as more rural areas in between.  (My “TTP” here, 98, may seem off, as the district doesn’t look exactly like the old one.  Some populated areas in northern Kings Co. have indeed been taken out, but as the TTP is a measure of what percentage of the NEW district was formerly a part of the old, any areas taken OUT would have no effect on the measure as they are no longer a part of the NEW district.)

District 21:  

Incumbent: Devin Nunes

Current District:  Obama 42; McCain 56

Proposed District:  Obama 47; McCain 51 (Kerry 37; Bush 62)

Demographics: hispanic 45; white 41

TTP: 40

The new district continues to include much of Tulare County, but also expands into new territory — parts of what is currently CA-25 (Inyo Co. and western portions of San Bernardino Co.).   The new partisan numbers may appear competitive (and the district is plurality Hispanic), but it should be noted that the new district had one of the highest Democratic jumps between 2004 and 2008 (and much of the Hispanic population here is undocumented or unregistered).  Fundamentally, this still remains a very Republican district; the future may hold a different scenario (?).

District 22:  

Incumbent: Kevin McCarthy

Current District:  Obama 38; McCain 60

Proposed District:  Obama 38; McCain 60 (Kerry 30; Bush 69)

Demographics: white 57; hispanic 28

TTP: 83

In most ways, the new CA-22 remains geographically and politically similar to the current district.  The San Luis Obispo Co. interior areas are detached.  The new CA-22 is politically the most conservative in California.

District 23:  

Incumbent: Lois Capps

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 32 (Kerry 58; Bush 40)

Demographics: hispanic 46; white 44

TTP: 98

The new district is almost identical to the current one, following the coast from Oxnard through Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties.

District 24:  

Incumbent: Elton Gallegly

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36 (Kerry 55; Bush 44)

Demographics: white 68; hispanic 19

TTP: 56

The new district combines much of Ventura Co. with parts of Los Angeles Co. (Malibu, Santa Monica, Calabassas, Hidden Hills, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village and parts of the city of Los Angeles).  The new lines and partisan numbers don’t look great for Gallegly.  He won with 58% last year against token opposition in a district that is much more Republican and his Simi Valley home is cut out of the district under this plan.  It should also be noted that Gallegly almost retired in 2006.  This all leads to a likely Democratic Gain !

District 25:  

Incumbent: none (district completely relocated)

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 48 (but not really applicable as district relocated from southern California where it is a GOP district)

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 38 (Kerry 51; Bush 47)

Demographics: hispanic 60; white 27

TTP: 0

CA-25 is a new Hispanic-majority district (at 60% of the population) encompassing much of interior Monterey County (including Salinas), all of San Benito Co. and areas of Madera, Fresno and Santa Clara Counties.  This is a major agricultural area; it is designed to elect a Hispanic-American Democratic Rep.  Democratic Gain !

District 26:  

Incumbent: David Dreier

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35 (Kerry 56; Bush 43)

Demographics: hispanic 61; white 22; asian 12

TTP: 18

This new district encompasses only a few of the areas currently in CA-26 — San Dimas, La Verne and Claremont.  It also includes El Monte, South El Monte, Irwindale, Baldwin Park, La Puente, Covina, West Covina and Azusa.  The district becomes Hispanic majority, and a solid majority one at that.  Last year Dreier had 53% to 40% for the Democrat and 7% for a Libertarian candidate.  Good luck to Dreier if he seeks re-election here.  Very likely, a Democratic Gain !

District 27:  

Incumbents: Brad Sherman; Howard McKeon

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32 (Obama 49-McCain 48 in McKeon’s CA-25, which is relocated to central California)

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34 (Kerry 57; Bush 41)

Demographics: white 52; hispanic 31

TTP: 33

The bulk of this district is made up of communities within the city of Los Angeles (North Hollywood, San Fernando valley neighborhoods, etc.).  Also attached is Santa Clarita to the north.  The new district is safely Democratic.  Even though only about 33% of the new district’s territory is currently part of CA-27, another 42% comes out of what is now CA-28, which is an even more progressive area.  The remainder is Santa Clarita and vicinity (McKeon’s CA-25).

District 28:  

Incumbent: Howard Berman

Current District:  Obama 76; McCain 22

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 32 (Kerry 59; Bush 40)

Demographics: hispanic 64; white 22

TTP: 52

This district becomes even more Hispanic than the current version.  The new lines include a good part of the San Fernando Valley as well as Palmdale in northern LA County.  The district becomes less Democratic, but the only upset here could occur in the Democratic primary if a Hispanic-American candidate makes a run for the seat.  Perhaps Berman would decide to run in a primary against Brad Sherman under this map, as over 40% of Sherman’s new district includes territory currently a part of CA-28.

District 29:  

Incumbent: Adam Schiff

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35 (Kerry 56; Bush 42)

Demographics: white 49; hispanic 25; asian 15

TTP: 61

The new CA-29 includes most of Schiff’s current territory in Pasadena, Glendale and Burbank.  Areas to the east are added (Sierra Madre, Arcadia, Monrovia, Bradbury, Glendora, La Canada-Flintridge) — mostly from the current CA-26.  The Democratic margin goes down somewhat, but this is still a safely Democratic seat.

District 30:  

Incumbent: Henry Waxman

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 33 (Kerry 60; Bush 39)

Demographics: white 63; hispanic 20; asian 10

TTP: 46

This westside LA district includes communities currently in CA-30 (Beverly Hills, West Hollywood and various parts of Los Angeles) as well as newly attached areas in Los Angeles (San Fernando Valley) and in Ventura Co. (Simi Valley, Moorpark).  Santa Monica, Malibu and a few other areas are taken out and attached to the neighboring CA-24.  The district remains a Democratic bastion, and a quite progressive one at that (and yes, the Reagan Library and West Hollywood are now in the same district !)

District 31:  

Incumbent: Xavier Beccera

Current District:  Obama 80; McCain 18

Proposed District:  Obama 80; McCain 18 (Kerry 77; Bush 22)

Demographics: hispanic 64; white 15; asian 14

TTP: 76

This central Los Angeles district shifts westward a bit, but for the most part (including partisan demographics) remains as is.

District 32:  

Incumbent: Judy Chu

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36 (Kerry 56; Bush 43)

Demographics: asian 42; hispanic 37; white 16

TTP: 28

The new CA-32 runs from a part of East Los Angeles through Monterey Park, Alhambra, South Pasadena, San Marino, Temple City, San Gabriel, Rosemead, Walnut, Diamond Bar and areas in between.  The district becomes plurality Asian.  Many Hispanic-majority areas of the current CA-32 are detached in order to create the new Hispanic-majority CA-26 just to the north and east of the new CA-32.

District 33:  

Incumbent: Diane Watson

Current District:  Obama 87; McCain 12

Proposed District:  Obama 88; McCain 11 (Kerry 84; Bush 15)

Demographics: hispanic 46; black 29; white 12

TTP: 70

The new CA-33 expands somewhat into south central LA to keep the black percentage as high as possible here, although as south central is rapidly becoming majority Hispanic, the resulting district is only 29% black.  Also added is the Westchester area around LAX., while the Silver Lake/Griffith Park area is taken out of the district.

District 34:  

Incumbent: Lucille Roybal-Allard

Current District:  Obama 75; McCain 23

Proposed District:  Obama 76; McCain 22 (Kerry 70; Bush 29)

Demographics: hispanic 77; white 10

TTP: 76

The new district is very similar to the current one, including downtown Los Angeles, Downey, and everything in between, as well as new territory north of downtown.  Bellflower is detached from the district.

District 35:  

Incumbent: Maxine Waters

Current District:  Obama 84; McCain 14

Proposed District:  Obama 73; McCain 25 (Kerry 68; Bush 31)

Demographics: hispanic 45; black 28; white 15

TTP: 36

There’s only one way the new district here could have been drawn !  Yes … the heart of south central LA/Watts and Inglewood are combined with the Palos Verdes peninsula.  Also included are Carson, the Wilmington and San Pedro areas of LA, and Avalon on Santa Catalina Island.  Even though only about 36% of the new district’s territory is currently part of CA-35, another 26% is taken out of areas currently in the districts of African-American Representatives Diane Watson and Laura Richardson.  The Democratic percentage falls by over 10 points, but Waters should still be very safe in the resulting 73% Obama district.

District 36:  

Incumbent: Jane Harman

Current District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34 (Kerry 59; Bush 40)

Demographics: white 42; hispanic 30; asian 17

TTP: 69

The new CA-36 is similar to the current district hugging Santa Monica Bay. Some communities are detached (Wilmington and San Pedro areas of LA.) while others are attached (Hawthorne, Lawndale, Gardena), but the partisan demographics remain the same.

District 37:  

Incumbents: Laura Richardson; Dana Rohrabacher

Current District:  Obama 80; McCain 19 (Obama 48-McCain 50 in Rohrabacher’s CA-46, which is relocated to the inland empire area)

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 33 (Kerry 59; Bush 39)

Demographics: hispanic 38; white 33; black 14; asian 11

TTP: 67

The new district includes most of Long Beach and Huntington Beach, as well as all of Seal Beach and Compton.  About 67% of the new district’s territory comes out of the current CA-37, while about 33% comes out of the current CA-46.  I know that Richardson is not the best California Democratic Rep, but even she should be safe in this seat (any semi-competent Democrat should be OK here.)  Ideally, a better Democrat wins here in a primary.  In the meantime, Rohrabacher can go back to concentrate on his surfing.

District 38:  

Incumbent: Grace Napolitano

Current District:  Obama 71; McCain 27

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35 (Kerry 57; Bush 42)

Demographics: hispanic 65; white 22

TTP: 47

This remains a majority-Hispanic district encompassing areas like Norwalk, Bellflower, Artesia, Santa Fe Springs, Pico Rivera, Montebello, Whittier and a part of East LA — all in Los Angeles County, as well as La Habra and parts of Fullerton and Placentia in Orange County.  Even though only 47% of the new district’s territory comes out of the current CA-38, another 28% comes out of neighboring Democratic-held seats, CA-34 and CA-39; the remaining 25% comes out of currently GOP-held seats.

District 39:  

Incumbent: Linda Sánchez

Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 32 (Kerry 59; Bush 40)

Demographics: hispanic 61; white 20; asian 10

TTP: 82

The new district is very similar to the current one, including parts of LA County — South Gate, Lynwood, Paramount, Lakewood, Hawaiian Gardens, Cerritos, La Mirada and a part of Long Beach.

District 40:  

Incumbent: Ed Royce

Current District:  Obama 47; McCain 51

Proposed District:  Obama 46; McCain 52 (Kerry 38; Bush 61)

Demographics: white 45; asian 26; hispanic 23

TTP: 57

The Orange Co.-based district is somewhat similar to the current one, but becomes slightly more Republican, as communities are shifted around.  Placentia, Orange, Villa Park and a part of Fullerton are detached, while Fountain Valley, Newport Beach and parts of Westminster, Huntington Beach and Garden Grove are added.

District 41:  

Incumbent: Jerry Lewis

Current District:  Obama 44; McCain 54

Proposed District:  Obama 44; McCain 54 (Kerry 37; Bush 62)

Demographics: white 59; hispanic 29

TTP: 69

This district includes much of central and eastern San Bernardino County, as well as parts of Riverside Co. (Banning, Beaumont, Calimesa, Rancho Mirage, Palm Desert, Indian Wells, La Quinta and Blythe.)

District 42:  

Incumbent: Gary Miller

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 42; McCain 56 (Kerry 34; Bush 65)

Demographics: white 60; hispanic 22; asian 12

TTP: 56

This is the “stereotypical” Orange County of Richard Nixon.  The district runs from his birthplace in Yorba Linda to his “summer White House” in San Clemente.  Also included are Brea, Orange, Villa Park, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, parts of Placentia, Anaheim and San Juan Capistrano, as well as the Chino Hills part of San Bernardino Co. The new district becomes even more Republican than the current one.

District 43:  

Incumbent: Joe Baca

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 32 (Kerry 56; Bush 43)

Demographics: hispanic 60; white 20; black 12

TTP: 82

The new CA-43 inlcudes many of the same areas as the current district — the city of San Bernardino, Colton, Rialto and Fontana — as well as added areas, parts of Redlands and Highland.  The new district remains majority-Hispanic.

District 44:  

Incumbent: Ken Calvert

Current District:  Obama 50; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 46; McCain 52 (Kerry 36; Bush 62)

Demographics: white 52; hispanic 34

TTP: 56

The new CA-44 is completely confined to Riverside County, and includes communities like Corona, Norco, Lake Elsinore, Canyon Lake and Hemet.  I’ve made the adjoining CA-45 much more Democratic, so this district has to become more Republican to balance the numbers.  I hate to leave Calvert in place, but the way the new CA-45 looks, it’s quite likely that Mary Bono could choose to run here instead.  In fact, she already represents almost a quarter of the new district’s population, and it would make more sense for her to run here and challenge the ethically-challenged Calvert in a primary, rather than run in the much more Democratic new CA-45 next door.

District 45:  

Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36 (Kerry 53; Bush 45)

Demographics: hispanic 49; white 31; black 10

TTP: 42

The new lines here maintain the district wholly within Riverside County.  Only the most Democratic areas are included – including Moreno Valley, Perris, Cathedral City, Palm Springs and much of Riverside.  Bono Mack lives in Palm Springs, and she won last time with 58% of the vote against a weak opponent.  It would make much more sense for her to run in CA-44 next door, or even in the new CA-41 which now expands into Riverside Co. areas just east of Palm Springs.  Both CA-41 and CA-44 GOP incumbents are ethically challenged and Bono currently represents good parts of those districts.   She would have a very hard to win race here.  If a credible Democrat runs in this 53 Kerry-45 Bush district, it is likely to be a Democratic Gain !

District 46:  

Incumbent: none (district completely relocated)

Current District:  Obama 48; McCain 50 (but not really applicable as district relocated from coastal Orange and LA Counties where it is a GOP district)

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34 (Kerry 54; Bush 45)

Demographics: hispanic 64; white 22

TTP: 0

California’s “Inland Empire” has had some of the state’s highest growth rate of the last decade, fueled largely by an increase in the Hispanic population.  The new CA-46 reflects that growth through the creation of a new Hispanic-majority district here. The new district includes the unincorporated extreme northwestern part of Riverside County as well as areas in San Bernardino Co. (Ontario, Montclair, Chino and parts of Rancho Cucamonga and Fontana), as well as most of Pomona in LA County.  Democratic Gain !

District 47:  

Incumbent: Loretta Sanchez

Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 38

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37 (Kerry 50; Bush 49)

Demographics: hispanic 68; white 15; asian 13

TTP: 97

The new CA-47 is very similar to the current district.  A few more Democratic precincts in Santa Ana are added, while more GOP parts of Garden Grove are detached, making the new district a tad more Democratic.  Parts of Anaheim and Fullerton are also in the district.  The Asian percentage goes down by a few points, as some of the Garden Grove areas are detached.

District 48:  

Incumbent: John Campbell

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 52; McCain 46 (Kerry 43; Bush 56)

Demographics: white 57; hispanic 21; asian 16

TTP: 78

The major change here is that Republican Newport Beach and North Tustin/Tustin Foothills are detached, while Democratic Costa Mesa is attached.  Irvine, Aliso Viejo, Dana Point, Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, Laguna Hills, Tustin and Lake Forest remain in the district.  The Democratic numbers go up, but probably not enough to initially make a dramatic difference.  However, with changing demographics and the right candidate we may be able to flip this seat in the future.  Coastal areas in California are becoming more and more Democratic over time.  This district is one that is already not very conservative on social issues (a majority here voted against Proposition 4 last year — a measure advocating parental notification before a minor’s abortion, and the electorate just barely voted yes on Prop. 8 — as opposed to other GOP areas in California where Prop. 8 had big majorities).  A hard-core conservative (ie., “birther” John Campbell) may not be able to hold such a district forever.

District 49:  

Incumbent: Darrell Issa

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 49; McCain 50 (Kerry 39; Bush 60)

Demographics: white 55; hispanic 31

TTP: 41

The new CA-49 includes parts of San Diego County — Oceanside, Carlsbad, Vista, San Marcos, Escondido, Rancho Santa Fe and parts of the city of San Diego (areas like Rancho Penasquitos and Rancho Bernardo).  Only 41% of the new district is territory that is currently in CA-49, while 51% comes out of what is now CA-50 — including Brian Bilbray’s home in Carlsbad.  The creation of this district could produce an interesting GOP primary between Issa and Bilbray.  The new district remains fairly Republican (despite Obama coming within less than 3,000 votes of winning it).

District 50:  

Incumbent: Brian Bilbray

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36 (Kerry 54; Bush 45)

Demographics: white 61; hispanic 17; asian 14

TTP: 42

CA-50 shifts southward under this plan. The new district combines much of the northern parts of the city of San Diego — including La Jolla, Clairemont, Pacific Beach, Mission Hills, Mission Valley, Serra Mesa, Hillcrest, University Heights, Normal Heights, North Park and college areas around UCSD and  SDSU (a number of these neighborhoods are added from CA-53), as well as the incorporated communities of Del Mar, Solana Beach and Encinitas.  The Democratic percentage goes up significantly.  Bilbray (whose home is no longer in the district under the new lines) beat Nick Leibham here last year by 5 points, while in the 2006 special election, Bilbray beat Francine Busby by 4.5 points.  The new CA-50 has a Democratic margin that’s many points higher than the old CA-50; you can do the math.  Democratic Gain !

District 51:  

Incumbent: Bob Filner

Current District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 36 (Kerry 53; Bush 46)

Demographics: hispanic 69; white 17

TTP: 79

The new district remains very similar to the current one.  The only major changes are that a part of San Diego as well as unincorporated communities to the north of Chula Vista are detached while Democratic parts of Riverside Co. (Coachella, Indio) are added.  The district remains majority Hispanic.

District 52:  

Incumbent: Duncan Hunter

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 39; McCain 59 (Kerry 32; Bush 67)

Demographics: white 68; hispanic 20

TTP: 52

This district becomes considerably more Republican as areas in and around the city of San Diego are detached while more GOP areas in northern San Diego County and southwestern Riverside Co. (Temecula, Murrieta) are added.  Only a little over half of the new district’s territory comes out of the current CA-52; much of the remainder is currently a part of CA-49.

District 53:  

Incumbent: Susan Davis

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 32 (Kerry 59; Bush 40)

Demographics: hispanic 37; white 36; asian 12; black 10

TTP: 57

The new CA-53 is anchored by the city of San Diego, with smaller communities like Imperial Beach, Coronado, Lemon Grove, La Mesa and part of El Cajon also included.  The new district includes San Diego neighborhoods like Mission Beach, Mission Bay, Ocean Beach, Point Loma/Harbor, Old Town, Downtown, City Heights and now virtually all of Southeast San Diego.  The district is slightly less Democratic than the current one, but remains solid for us.

So that’s my revised plan for California.  I welcome comments and suggestions.

Taking into account some suggestions and comments, I made some changes to my previous attempt at redistricting California. I conceded an additional 2 seats to the GOP, which concomitantly makes a number of other seats more strongly Democratic. The additional 2 safe GOP seats are CA-4 and CA-48. Here’s what version 2 looks like, overall:

Statewide Map, Version 2

For comparison, here is Version 1:

Statewide Map, Version 1

Because redistricting diaries often seem to devolve into discussions of the morality of gerrymandering, I will state my thoughts up front in order to try and prevent discussion from thus devolving.

1) In an ideal world, my ideal scenario would be that all Congressional districts in all States would be redistricted by non-partisan commission, so that all districts were fair and no political party was disadvantaged on the national level.

2) We don’t live in an ideal world. If Democrats roll over and play dead during redistricting after the 2010 census, that will do nothing to stop Republicans from gerrymandering every last seat out of states they control, like Georgia, Texas, and Florida. That will result in a national Congressional map unfairly favorable towards Republicans.

3) So Democrats should draw politically favorable maps in states we control. Congressional Redistricting is a blood sport, and unilateral disarmament is not a viable solution. Taking the high road is the Michael Dukakis way, and it is the wrong way.

4) If Democrats draw strong enough maps in states like California that really hurt the GOP, then maybe the GOP will eventually cry uncle.

5) After that, maybe the GOP would agree to adopt a fair national solution in which all states, whether GOP controlled or Dem controlled, drew fair and competitive maps via commission or some other neutral mechanism. That might not happen, but electoral reform of that sort is certainly more likely if we fight back than if we let the GOP roll us.

Now, on to the substance:

Political Impact

The bottom line is that under this map or something similar, California’s Congressional delegation would have many more Democrats and many fewer Republicans. Overall there are now 42 seats classified as Safely Democratic, 4 Lean Democratic. Under this map California would likely send delegation with 46-49 Democrats and 6-9 Republicans to Congress. Currently, California’s Congressional delegation is 33D – 19R, so that is a substantial improvement.

If a handful of GOP incumbents are able to hold on in districts that voted in the mid-50s for Obama, it is possible the number of Democrats could be a bit lower than 46. But even in a very large GOP wave election, the number of Democratic seats would be unlikely to fall much below 42-46, because the vast majority of seats are at least D+10 or very close to it, which is more than high enough to withstand a 1994 or 2006 sized wave election.

	Version 1	Change	Version 2
Dem	39	+3	42
Lean Dem	5	-1	4
Swing	5	-2	3
GOP	4	+2	6

Below, I analyze the districts that change from my previous version.

Northern California

In Northern California, CA-4 is conceded to the GOP. In exchange CA-3 becomes more strongly Democratic and CA-10 much less gerrymandered. Indirectly, this also filters all the way down to San Bernadino County to help make CA-29 and CA-45 a bit more Democratic.

Northern California, Version 2 map

Districts Altered:

CA-2

Incumbent:	?Wally Herger? (R), ?Tom McClintock? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+11
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	39% Obama, R+14
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	40% Obama, R+13.
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	72% White
District 1.0 Demographics:	78% White
District 2.0 Demographics:	77% White

CA-2 shifts a bit northwards from version 1, getting rid of El Dorado and Amador Counties to move into Nevada County and take in more of the Sacramento suburbs in Placer County. This might make the district about 1 point more Democratic.

CA-3

Incumbent:	Dan Lungren (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+6
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	57% Obama, D+4
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	61% Obama, D+8
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	65% White
District 1.0 Demographics:	56% White
District version 2.0 Demographics:	45% White

CA-3 is reworked thoroughly from the previous version. In my previous version, GOP incumbent Dan Lungren was in trouble. In this new version, he is pretty much doomed if he runs in this district. Only 250,000 people in this district remain in Sacramento County, mostly in competitive northern suburbs, with a mix of Obama and McCain precincts. On top of those people, all of Solano County (except for a thin sparsely populated strip of CA-10) and West Sacramento are tacked on, turning a lean Democratic district into a solidly Democratic district.

CA-4

Incumbent:	?Dan Lungren? (R), ?George Radanovich? (R), ?Tom McLintock? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+10
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	53% Obama, D+0
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	41% Obama, R+12
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	79% White
District 1.0 Demographics:	57% White
District 2.0 Demographics:	78% White

The flip side of making CA-3 more Democratic is making CA-4 more Republican. The new CA-4 is a suburban swing district no more. It is now a solidly GOP district, combining suburban parts of Placer County with the Sierra Nevadas (minus Lake Tahoe) and strongly GOP north Fresno. 1/10 of the district is also made up of some particularly strong GOP precincts in Sacramento County, most of which are already in the current CA-4. GOP incumbents Dan Lungren, George Radanovich, and Tom McClintock would all have a reason to run here, making for a potential 3-way GOP primary, as substantial amounts of territory each has previously represented is included in this district.

CA-7

Incumbent:	George Miller (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+19
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	65% Obama, D+12
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	39% White, 27% Latino
District 1.0 Demographics:	50% White, 31% Latino
District 2.0 Demographics:	50% White, 28% Latino

CA-7 gives up Antioch in order to pick up Berkeley. In order to keep Richmond contiguous with Oakland while also enabling CA-7 to add Berkeley, there is a thin coastal strip of CA-9 running through Berkeley as well. George Miller should have no difficulties in Berkeley, and when Miller retires, another strong Democrat should do fine in this district as well. Disproportionately few votes in this district are actually cast in San Joaquin county due to the high Latino population there. So the potential problem of someone from Berkeley winning a Democratic primary but then losing a general election (which applied to my previous version of CA-10) ought to be reduced in this modified version of CA-7.

CA-10

Incumbent:	John Garamendi (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+11
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	64% Obama, D+11
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	56% White
New District Demographics:	46% White

CA-10 is not the monster that the previous district was. The entire Sierra Nevadas section of the district is gone in version 2, and that population is instead picked up in Sacramento County (which now makes up about 4/7 of the district). The Sacramento section looks on its face like it would be Republican because there are large swaths of rural areas in the south-east of the county. But actually most of the population is in relatively Democratic suburban areas (like Elk Grove), and CA-10’s section of Sacramento County voted similarly to the county as a whole. Berkeley is also traded to CA-7 in exchange for Antioch. That makes CA-10 a little less Democratic than it would be, but only by a few points because Antioch is pretty strongly Democratic as well (65% for Obama). This also has negates the chance that someone from Berkeley with limited appeal in the Sacramento suburbs will be a future Democratic nominee in CA-10.

Southern California

An additional district in Southern California is conceded to the GOP (CA-48), in exchange for strengthening a couple of relatively weak Swing/Lean Democratic districts, and reducing gerrymandering in Orange County.

Southern California, Version 2 map

South-East LA & Orange County, Version 2 map

Districts Altered

CA-22

Incumbent:	?Kevin McCarthy? (R), ?Devin Nunes? (R), ?George Radanovich? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+16
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	32% Obama, R+21
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	32% Obama, R+21
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	57% White, 49% Latino
District 1.0 Demographics:	62% White, 24% Latino
District 2.0 Demographics:	62% White, 26% Latino

Because CA-4 does not pick up the lake Tahoe area from CA-10, it has to make up population by pushing down on CA-22 into Fresno. This means that CA-22 also has some more population (114,000) to make up. It does so by crossing into San Bernadino County and relieving Adam Schiff of the most heavily Republican precincts around Barstow and Hesperia. So while the political makeup of CA-22 does not really change, it helps make CA-29 more Democratic, and indirectly helps to make CA-41 and CA-45 more Democratic.

CA-29

Incumbent:	Adam Schiff (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+14
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	61% Obama, D+8
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	42% White, 26% Asian, 26% Latino
District 1.0 Demographics:	46% White, 7% Asian, 33% Latino
District 2.0 Demographics:	45% White, 8% Asian, 34% Latino

As mentioned above, CA-29 sheds some heavily GOP areas to the 22nd district. To equalize the population, CA-29 adds Upland, which has some Democratic precincts to go with its Republican ones, and GOP Yucca Valley and Twenty Nine Palms. Though these areas are still generally GOP, they are a bit less Republican than the areas he loses. I also noticed that there were two prisons with combined populations of about 25,000 people in the middle of the desert/hills of rural San Bernadino county. I was sure to add those to CA-29, serving to increases the relative proportion of the vote cast in the heavily Democratic LA County part of the 29th. So Adam Schiff’s district becomes a bit more Democratic by picking up some relatively less GOP precincts and by adding some prisoners. I thought about putting Lake Tahoe in the 29th district, but didn’t in the end.

CA-40

Incumbent:	?Ed Royce? (R), ?John Campbell? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+8
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	52% Obama, R+1
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	57% Obama, D+4
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	42% White, 18% Asian, 34% Latino
District 1.0 Demographics:	43% White, 15% Asian, 35% Latino
District 2.0 Demographics:	46% White, 16% Asian, 32% Latino

CA-40 is now entirely within Orange County, and, like the rest of the districts in Orange County (except CA-47) is remodeled from version 1.0. This is probably just about the most Democratic district that can be made in Orange County without taking substantively from CA-47. It combines progressive and Democratic leaning Laguna beach with Costa Mesa, Irvine, and some Obama voting areas (with lots of apartments, which presumably explains their Democratic trend) around Laguna Woods/Aliso Viejo. This part of the district is 57% white, and makes up half of the district. The rest of the district (35% white) pecks around the fringes of CA-47, picking up Democratic leaning precincts in parts of Tustin, Anaheim, Fullerton, and Placentia. Effective mobilization of young and minority voters would be key to any potential pickup of this district for Democrats. Another note is that if the Asian American voters I picked up turn out to be disproportionately Vietnamese, that would also make this district marginally more Republican.

CA-41

Incumbent:	Jerry Lewis (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+10
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	53% Obama, D+0
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	58% Obama, D+5
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	55% White, 6% Black, 33% Latino
District 1.0 Demographics:	40% White, 11% Black, 39% Latino
District 2.0 Demographics:	33% White, 11% Black, 45% Latino

CA-41 becomes substantially more Republican and less white than the previous version. It gives up its more rural areas of San Bernadino County (and its prisons) and is pulled westward towards Los Angeles. As the white population declines and the Latino population increases, both Black and Latino voters become a substantially greater proportion of the electorate. Only 50,000 people in the district now live in non-urbanized areas now (in the mountains just to the East of San Bernadino). I would guess this district voted about 58% for Obama, though it is possible that it is even more Democratic than that. The city of San Bernadino, for example, voted 66% for Obama.

CA-43

Incumbent:	Joe Baca (Blue Dog D)
Previous District PVI:	D+13
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	63% Obama, D+10
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	17% White, 65% Latino
District 1.0 Demographics:	23% White, 62% Latino
District 2.0 Demographics:	22% White, 63% Latino

From version 1, CA-43 shifts further to the West, adding Chino and Montclair. The Latino majority actually slightly increases in the process. Joe Baca would have no trouble running here, and he would probably have little difficulty in CA-41 either if he preferred to run there.

CA-44

Incumbent:	?Ken Calvert?, ?Mary Bono? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+6
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	41% Obama, R+12
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	41% Obama, R+12
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	44% White, 42% Latino
District 1.0 Demographics:	60% White, 25% Latino
District 2.0 Demographics:	62% White, 26% Latino

Version 2 of CA-44 is no different politically than version 1.0 (though possibly it is more like R+11 now). But geographically, it shifts further into Riverside County, adding much of Mary Bono’s GOP base areas, and even picks up a small section of San Bernadino County. This district would likely result in an interesting primary between Mary Bono (who is probably seen as too moderate to go unchallenged in a GOP primary) and Ken Calvert (who is reportedly being investigated by the FBI). Perhaps (I am only half kidding here) Doug Hoffman would run here as well, providing a true Conservative alternative…

CA-45

Incumbent:	Mary Bono (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+3
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	55% Obama, D+2
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	61% Obama, D+8
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	42% White, 45% Latino
District 1.0 Demographics:	35% White, 51% Latino
District 2.0 Demographics:	34% White, 52% Latino

CA-45 becomes more Democratic than in version 1 by exchanging white GOP areas for Lake Tahoe. I would have liked to expand the Latino majority in this district, but was not really possible without reducing the Hispanic percentage in other Latino majority districts like CA-42 and CA-51. It was also tough to find somewhere suitable to put Lake Tahoe – I didn’t want to waste a lot of Democratic votes, but there were not many non-majority minority and non-Republican districts in Southern California that could easily extend northwards through Inyo and Mono Counties. The Inyo/Mono/Alpine/Lake Tahoe portion of the district voted 64% for Obama, while the rest (which is 57% Latino) voted about 60% for Obama. Mary Bono would be more likely to try her luck in a GOP primary in CA-44 than to fight a losing battle here.

CA-37

Incumbent:	Laura Richardson (D)
Previous District PVI:	D+26
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	64% Obama, D+11
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	67% Obama, D+14
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	13% White, 22% Black, 13% Asian, 48% Latino
District 1.0 Demographics:	31% White, 18% Black, 11% Asian, 36% Latino
District 2.0 Demographics:	31% White, 19% Black, 11% Asian, 38% Latino

For version 2 of CA-37, I managed to knock the black population up a notch to 19%, by running through a different section of Long Beach. 37% of the district (Fountain Valley, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach) is in Orange County and voted for McCain 54-46. But that Orange County section is overwhelmed by the LA County portion, which includes Compton (96% for Obama), areas of LA nearby, and part of Long Beach. The overall Obama percentage goes up to 67%, partly because it actually gets more Democratic, but also because I think I originally slightly underestimated how Democratic this district was. The vote around Compton is really overwhelming – though it might be less so with Obama not on the ballot, this seat still should be very safe.

CA-46

Incumbent:	Dana Rohrabacher (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+3
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	60% Obama, D+7
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	61% Obama, D+8
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	59% White, 18% Asian, 18% Latino
District 1.0 Demographics:	50% White, 10% Asian, 29% Latino
District 2.0 Demographics:	37% White, 22% Asian, 30% Latino

Only 30% of CA-46 is in Orange County now, but it does get substantially more Democratic (relative to version 1) because the areas of Orange County that are retained (chiefly the area around Westminster) are relatively Republican, while some of the areas of Orange County in version 1.0 (particularly Costa Mesa and Laguna Woods) voted for Obama. Those Democratic Orange County areas are donated to CA-40. Some of the areas in LA County that are added to CA-46 are only relatively weakly Democratic as well, and there are even a few McCain precincts in the LA county part of the district. It would be easy to make this district more Democratic by switching around some precincts with the neighboring 37th and 39th districts, but I didn’t do so in order to keep the minority populations well up in those VRA districts. This district makes much more sense geographically than the elongated snake in version 1.

CA-48

Incumbent:	?John Campbell? (R) ?Ed Royce? (R)
Previous District PVI:	R+6
District 1.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	52% Obama, R+1
District 2.0 estimated Obama/McCain:	42% Obama, R+11
Current District 2008 (Est.) Demographics:	61% White, 17% Asian, 18% Latino
District 1.0 Demographics:	44% White, 19% Asian, 29% Latino
District 2.0 Demographics:	71% White, 11% Asian, 13% Latino

In Version 2.0, CA-48 is conceded to the GOP, becoming a thoroughly Republican district entirely contained within Orange County. It is just about the most heavily GOP district that could be created entirely within Orange County. In the northwest, the district starts in GOP north Fullerton. It takes in all of heavily GOP, high turnout Yorba Linda. More of the same as it heads through heavily GOP areas of Tustin and  Anaheim. It heads east to pick up more GOP areas surrounding the 40th district, including Mission Viejo, Santa Margarita, and Laguna Niguel. It then turns back to the North-West, through a thin coastal strip of Laguna Beach (hopefully not picking up too many Democrats), and ends by adding Newport Beach. By taking in so many GOP voters, it is possible to make the remaining Orange County districts both more Democratic and more compact. It also allows the 44th District to move into Riverside and San Bernadino counties, making other seats in the inland empire more Democratic.

I also made some minor alterations in the distribution of the Latino districts in LA in order to make the Latino percentages high in each, but that doesn’t alter their political status (safely Democratic).

This is the second of my Georgia maps. I've already done a Democratic gerrymander.  In this edition, I tried to think like a Georgia Republican (but failed because I'm not that damn crazy or evil).  With the fate of the VRA seemingly in doubt, I went ahead and discounted it, using only the requirements of contiguousness and equal population and political realities in shaping the districts (because there's no way the Republicans could get a 14-0 Georgia delegation short of epic measures).

 My “goals” for this round were:

1. To protect John Linder, who's Gwinnett-based district is rapidly diversifying from black, Hispanic, and Asian growth and taking on some liberal whites as well, as seen in long-term trends toward our side.
2. To ensure the long term (at least to the next round of redistricting) sustainability of the other Republican districts.
3. To make the new district a Republican district.
4. To try to eliminate as many Democrats as possible.
5. To try to avoid primary battles within the Republican Party.
6. To make the districts look as nice as possible.

I think I achieved these goals with the following districts:

Metro Atlanta:

The major non-Atlanta regional population centers (Athens, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, and Savannah) all get a district to themselves and their surrounding areas, intact, without sharing with another major city.

1st District (Jack Kingston [R] vs. John Barrow [D]) BLUE
New Demographics: 63% white | 29% black | 0% Native American | 1% Asian | 4% Hispanic | 1% Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

The first of the Republican pickups comes in coastal Georgia.  Chatham County (Savannah) is made whole, putting Jack Kingston and John Barrow in the same district.  Kingston has a decided advantage here.  Of the seventeen counties in the new district, Barrow represents only three, one of which is a major thorn in his side.  He loses his secondary base in the Augusta area and picks up several rural/exurban, white, and VERY Republican counties.  Kingston, on the other hand, has much of his old district intact.  Barrow has struggled before in a far more minority, far more Democratic district.  His ability to survive here is very much in doubt.  His only saving grace would be his fundraising prowress.

2nd District (Sanford Bishop [D]) GREEN
New Demographics: 56% white | 35% black | 0% Native American | 0% Asian | 5% Hispanic | 0% Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 51.4% white | 44.8% black | .3% Native American | .6% Asian | 3.5% Hispanic | .1% other

With the 2nd, I essentially pushed the district over, cutting Bishop off from his secondary base in the Columbus area and instead moving the district east, taking up large swarths of white, Republican, rural areas.  While we're used to Bishop winning easily, he has had trouble in less Democratic districts.  And not only does the change in direction (from the Georgia-Florida-Alabama border east instead of from the Florida border to Columbus) make the district more Republican but it also, as would be expected, makes for a larger Republican bench and a smaller Democratic bench, increasing the chances of a higher tier Republican emerging while decreasing the chances of a higher tier Democrat emerging when Bishop hangs it up (or gets defeated).

3rd District (Lynn Westmoreland [R]) PLUM
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

4th District (Hank Johnson [D]) RED
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 35.8% white | 53.5% black | .4% Native American | 4.3% Asian | 8.5% Hispanic | 0% other

5th District (John Lewis [D]) YELLOW
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 37% white | 56.1% black | .2% Native American | 2.2% Asian | 6.1% Hispanic | 0% other

6th District (Tom Price [R]) TEAL
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 85.6% white | 7% black | .2% Native American | 4% Asian | 4.5% Hispanic | .1% other

The loss of parts of North Fulton and Cherokee to sure up Linder next door and the fact that some parts of the district are shaky (North DeKalb and Sandy Springs) necesitated moving the 6th down into the white, Republican parts of Atlanta on the northside.  Short of something major, Price should be okay

7th District (John Linder [R]) GRAY
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

8th District (Jim Marshall [D]) PERIWINKLE
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

9th District (Open [R-held]) CYAN
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: 84% white | 4% black | 0% Native American | 0% Asian | 9% Hispanic | 0% Other
Old District: 82.5% white | 13.7% black | .3% Native American | 1.2% Asian | 2.6% Hispanic | .1% other

In the four maps I've made for Georgia, I always have trouble with the Nineth because we don't yet know who's going to be the Congressman.  The map I made tries to put the all of the potential candiates into the district (sans State Rep. Bobby Reese, who entered after I made this map and who doesn't lIVe in the current district anyways).  The new district has the same general shape but sheds all of Forsyth, Lumpkin, Union, White Counties, as well as about 45% of Hall County (done to keep the Tenth from getting too mishapen.  In return, it gains all of Chattooga County, the parts of Gordon County originally in the Eleventh, and the Northern parts of Bartow and Floyd Counties.  In sum, it becomes more rural. 

10th District (Paul Broun [R]) HOT PINK
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

11th District (Phil Gingrey [R]) ACID GREEN
New Demographics: 73% white | 15% black | 0% Native American | 1% Asian | 7% Hispanic | 1% Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

Not a huge change in shape, the 11th compacts somewhat and shifts south a bit, shedding Chattooga, its parts of Gordon, and the Northern halves of Floyd and Bartow in return for picking up the southern half of Carroll and the western half of Douglas.  In sum, it becomes more suburban.  Unfortunately, these are not the suburbs that are trending our way at any speed (or at all). 

12th District (NEW SEAT) POWDER BLUE
New Demographics: 58% white | 35% black | 0% Native American | 1% Asian | 3% Hispanic | 1% Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

With John Barrow set to lose in the new 1st and Paul Broun getting an Athens-Northeast Georgia district, Republicans can placate the Augusta-area Republicans.  While including Augusta-Richmond County and other small blue and purple counties (e.g. Burke, Screven), they're more than outweighed by the the red areas in the Atlanta exurbs, Northeast Georgia, etc.  And even if Barrow decides to run here instead, he'll still have a district stacked against him racially (he's had trouble in far less white districts AND will be carpetbagging for the second time in four cycles.

13th District (David Scott [D]) SALMON
New Demographics: 34% white | 49% black | 0% Native American | 3% Asian | 11% Hispanic | 2% Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

Due to population increases, the 13th loses its territory in DeKalb and Henry, but remains mostly the same otherwise.  It falls just short of being majority-black.  So, it would take just a little reshuffling to get it to that point if the Republicans end up getting smacked for diluting black voting strenght elsewhere (or feel the need to shore up other districts).  Scott will be safe.

14th District (NEW SEAT) OLIVE
New Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old Demographics: % white | % black | % Native American | % Asian | % Hispanic | % Other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other

Although unintended, this district bears a strong resemblance to John Douglas' state senate district.

I think a lesson to take from this is that ostensible communities of interest and clean lines making geometric districts can really fuck us over and an unwillingness to cross political and geographic boundaries can really kill us.