Tom Perriello for a Obamajority

Last Monday I launched the Obamajority to give Barack Obama a strong progressive Congress that will enact his bold agenda. I started it out with three canidates, Rick Noriega, Darcy Burner and Patrick Murphy. I also asked for suggestions for who to endorse next.

The canidate that received the most support by far was Tom Perriello. I had already heard about his impressive run for Congress and so I am exited to announce that Tom is the latest canidate to be added to the Obamajority. So go and give him some change for change. In this essay I take a look at Tom and his campaign to bring much needed leadership to Virgina’s 5th Congressional District.

First let’s take a look at the current representative for the Virgina’s 5th Congressional District. His name is Virgil Goode, Jr. I’ve known about Goode for a little bit over a year because he is a national prominent bigot. On December 7th Goode sent this letter out to a constituent. Take a look at that bigotry.

You see that “Muslim Representative from Minnesota” is Keith Ellison the great representative elected to my neighboring district. That is a perfect example of the hate and fear that is too powerful today. Many times people have attempted to defeat Goode but again and again they have lost. But this time we have a chance to change that.

Why? Because we have a great canidate running. Tom Perriello. Tom was called to serve at a early age.

After receiving his law degree from Yale University, Tom accepted an assignment working to end atrocities in the West African countries of Liberia and Sierra Leone, which had suffered long civil wars fueled by blood diamonds. Tom’s work with child soldiers, amputees, and local pro-democracy groups in Sierra Leone played a significant role in the peace and reconciliation process that ended twelve years of violence in that country.

Tom then became Special Advisor and spokesperson for the International Prosecutor during the showdown that forced Liberian dictator Charles Taylor from power without firing a shot. After this success, Tom served as a national security analyst for the Century Foundation. He has worked inside Darfur and twice in Afghanistan.

Since 2004 he has been a leader in building a faith-based movement dedicated to working toward the common good instead of spewing hate.

Since 2004, Tom has helped to launch a political and social movement in this country that is credited with shifting the national debate about America’s moral priorities. He helped found FaithfulAmerica.org and Catholics in Alliance for the Common Good, which bring together faith communities to fight for children’s health care, supporting a higher minimum wage, environmental stewardship, and responsible solutions in Iraq. Inspired by the prophetic vision of Dr. King, Wilberforce, and Micah, Tom believes that America must reverse the erosion of our commitment to the common good and restore our understanding that our nation rises or falls together.

Tom also helped found Avaaz.org a great group that I am a part of. It tackles some of the toughest issues of our day by working with it’s millions of members from every country in the world.

Tom sat down for a great interview with Lowell of the great Virgina blog Raising Kaine. In it he explains why he is running, how he thinks he can win, his strengths and passions. Let’s look at some highlights from that interview.

First of all the big question. Why? Why run for Congress?

Like so many in my generation, I felt called from an early age to devote my life to community service, because it felt so much more real than trying to change things through government. For over a decade, I have felt inspired to work on economic fairness in our communities and on ending atrocities from inside Darfur and Sierra Leone.  

But I could only work in a broken system for so long before I began to understand how important it was to fix the system itself. In Darfur and West Africa, I saw how much of a difference a single Congressperson could make if s/he were willing to speak out and hold the Administration and State Department accountable. And the last few elections have made it clear how important it is for Democrats to reclaim the values debate and restore America’s commitment to justice and the common good.

I believe we stand at a unique point in history. Our challenges are large enough that our only pragmatism is the idealism to think big and expand our sense of what’s possible. I am running because I believe that politics should be seen as community service by other means. It can, and should, be a place to make people’s lives better.  

And how will he win in this traditionally Republican district?

We are going to win because we have a stronger movement on our side and better ideas for how to secure our country, our jobs, and our environment. Beating Rep. Goode will not be easy, but all the pieces are coming together:

1) Energy and Resources – We tripled Rep. Goode in fourth quarter fundraising, and raised more money inside Virginia in four months than he did all year. When we are outpacing an incumbent from the Appropriations Committee, you know that people are hungry for a new generation of leadership. Also the DCCC has put our race “in play,” and if we hit our fundraising target this quarter, we will move into the top tier of their targeted races.  

2) Grassroots – Our campaign has already logged over 1300 volunteer hours, and we are working hard to build the largest and most sophisticated grassroots network this district has ever seen. We are investing heavily in field, already have offices in Franklin County and Charlottesville, and will have an office in Danville by the end of this quarter. In a district the size of New Jersey, this race will be won on the ground.

3) Blue-mentum – Like much of America, our district is a swing district that is now trending blue. The wildly popular Mark Warner is on the ticket, Gov. Kaine is tirelessly devoted to building the party, and Obama just got more primary votes in the Fifth than all the Republicans combined. Meanwhile, Rep. Goode has gone from being a populist maverick to marching lockstep with President Bush and out of step with our independent district.  

As for being a “faith-based progressive,” I can tell you that voters respond to authenticity. My faith is a big part of who I am and why I’ve dedicated my life to justice, and most voters just want to know what I am all about. It also provides a common experience and language that resonates with voters in my district, especially in areas where Democrats have struggled in the past.    

And finally his answer on one of the most pressing issues of our day. Climate change.  

We need to commit to independence from fossil fuels within a generation, and that will require major investments, a substantial shift in incentives, and a culture change as consumers. A revenue-neutral tax shift is one way to do this, but so are cap-and-trade systems that have worked to address problems such as acid rain.  

As for the target, I most often hear from experts that we must draw the line at no more than a 2-degree Celsius temperature increase. Our goal must be set not by what seems politically possible but what will actually produce the end result we need.  

That brings me to a excellent series that Tom wrote for TPMCafe’s Table for One. You can read it all here (under latest posts) but I want to focus on what I think is the most important one. It is entitled “Conviction Politics… in Practice.” In it Tom breaks from the notion that only DLC-poll driven campaigns can win. Instead he shows that conviction politics both makes it more likely for him to be elected and will also make him more effective if he is elected. I strongly recomend you read it all but here is part of it.

While some strategists focus on positioning candidates on issue after issue, I believe most voters focus more on whether the candidate integrity and character on the whole, demonstrated by the conviction to take a stand. These lines from Toby Keith probably strike pretty close to how many people, including me, feel about this:

“I’m a man of my convictions. Call me wrong. Call me right.

But I bring my better angels, to every fight.

You may not like where I’m going. But you sure know where I stand.

Hate me if you want to, love me if you can.”

For the rest of the week, I will be talking about my struggle to apply these simple principles to the issues of the day (Iraq War, culture war) and my experience putting conviction politics into practice. The successes of conviction candidates in 2006 inspired me to run for Congress. I am still very early in the process, but am hopeful that this campaign will be part of building on those lessons for a better democracy.

The more I learn about Tom the more exited I am about this campaign. I hope you will take the time to read his great interview with Raising Kaine, teacherken’s excellent case for him and Tom’s postings on TPM. Hopefully then you will be as exited by Tom’s campaign as I am.

Electing Barack Obama isn’t enough to bring real change. We will also need to send a strong message to Congress that more of the same won’t cut it. Electing someone like Tom would do just that. Tom wouldn’t just be another vote. He would be someone who lead by example. He will use his power as 1 of 435 to do good in the world not get sweet deals from lobbyists. He will lead by conviction and indeed he already is leading. He helped develop the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq and appeared in this video promoting it:

If you want that kind of leadership. If you want to send a strong message that conviction politics is the right kind of politics then consider making a donation to Tom via the Obamajority page. Tom has set a goal of raising $500,000 in this quarter and he is very close to reaching that. If he does this will become a top-tier race nationally. He is running a grassroots campaign and we have a good shot at replacing one of the worst congressmen with one of the best. Right now is a critical time in the campaign though so donate and together we can bring about some real change. But only it you help make it.

Donate to Tom Perriello and together we will build a Obamajority.

We need to restore the founding American ethic that we are better off when we are in this together. Since the original thirteen colonies joined together as the United States, through Civil War and the Great Depression, we have risen or fallen according to this simple rule: America thrives when we are united in a common purpose for the common good.- Tom Perriello

P.S. We are always open to adding new canidates. Keep the suggestions coming to obamathon (AT) gmail (DOT) com. Thanks!

Let’s build an Obamajority

There is still a lot more work to do if we want to get Barack Obama elected. But if we want to truly change this country we need to do more then that. We need to build strong Democratic majority in the House and Senate committed to passing Obama’s agenda of change. In short we need an Obamajority.

So I e-mailed a few people who had helped out with the Obamathon and came up with the idea for a fundraising drive like the Obamathon but for congressional candidates who will help build a Obamajority. Using the amazing ActBlue we have set up a fundraising page to build The New Obamajority. To start out it features three great candidates. Rick Noriega, Darcy Burner and Patrick Murphy. More will be added as time goes on (suggestions are welcome at obamathon (AT) gmail (DOT) com) but for now let me introduce you to those three great candidates who will help build an Obamajority.    



Rick Noriega

First off, Rick Noriega. Rick is running for Senate in Texas to take back LBJ’s old seat from Bush rubber stamp John Cornyn.

Rick is a Lt. Colonel in the Texas Army National Guard and has served in Afghanistan, he has been a accomplished state representative since 1998 and he managed the evacuee shelter operation in Houston. He was “drafted” into the Senate race by Texas activists and is now running a strong campaign against John Cornyn who is one of the worst Senators in the nation. But why should this race matter to Obama supporters?

Many presidents have been swept into office with a progressive agenda of reform but then faced the Senate. We don’t want Barack to have the same experience. The Republican minority has set a record in filibusters and has been able to over and over block progress on key issues. If we want Obama to be able to succeed in changing the country we will need more Democrats in the Senate. There are some races like Virgina that are likely going to be pickups but were we can help the most is in states like Texas that are at the verge of at least turning purple but are under the national radar. Money and energy at this point will help give Rick the resources needed to run a grassroots, people-powered campaign so he can defeat John Cornyn and help build an Obamajority. Donate today via the New Obamajority page and together we can do it. And if your wondering who Rick prefers in the presidential race read this quote from a newspaper:

   “I’m for whoever wins,” he replies diplomatically, before twirling into the second half of his answer: “I’m for who’s going to come back to Texas and help us fight (to) win Texas.”

   …

   Noriega falls back to Alamo imagery. “I’m drawing a line in the sand. My focus is which one of you (Obama or Clinton) is committed to help us win Texas back.

   “At the end of the day,” Noriega said, “I want to know who’s going to be in the foxhole with us.”

We know Barack Obama will be in that foxhole with him, and will execute the 50-state strategy to turn Texas blue and elect Rick Noriega to the Senate seat once held by Lyndon Baines Johnson. Donate today and make it a reality!



Darcy Burner:

Next up is Darcy Burner. She is running for Congress in Washington’s 8th congressional district against Rep. Dave Reichert. Bush and Reichert are such great pals that Bush decided to fly across the country to do a big fundraiser for him. In response we in the netroots raised almost 100,000 dollars for Darcy Burner in less then a week. She is a great candidate and stands a great shot to win and send a message of change to congress.

Darcy is a software engineer who got fed up of Reichert and his pal Bush and ran a underdog, grassroots campaign in 2006 and nearly won. She has learned from that campaign and is running again and stands a great shot of winning.

She won’t just be another vote in Congress. She will be a leader. As a congressional candidate she worked with other candidates, security experts, military leaders and others to develop the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq. That is the kind of leadership she will bring to congress.

If we want to enact Obama’s agenda we need more leaders. So help send one to congress. Donate to Darcy!



Patrick Murphy:

And finally Patrick Murphy. He is the first and only Iraq War veteran to serve in Congress and has helped lead the fight to bring our troops home from Iraq and ensure they receive the care and benefits they receive when they come back. With Barack Obama as President we can finish that job.

In 2006 by running a people-powered campaign similar to the one Obama is now running Patrick upset Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. But the Republicans have recruited a top-tier candidate and this will be a tough race.

Back in August 2007, Murphy stepped to the plate to endorse Barack Obama, and spent a great deal of time in Iowa and New Hampshire on the stump for Barack Obama. Patrick has stood with us and now let’s return the favor and help return him to congress. Donate to Murphy for an Obamajority.

There you go. Three great candidates who will help build an Obamajority to help Barack Obama achieve real change. Supporting Barack isn’t enough because he won’t be able to do anything if he doesn’t have an Obamajority. So let’s build one. Donate today. Spread the word. Have a idea for another canidate? Post it in the comments or e-mail obamathon (AT) gmail (DOT) com.

Super Tuesday Election Contest

My latest election contest is ready (cutting it close to the wire). I do this primarily by email, but thought I’d post here and open it up to others. Feel free to invite anyone who might be interested to enter, as long as they do so by about Noon PST Tuesday, Feb. 5.

INTRODUCTION

Finally, the Super Tuesday contest.  I’ll allow entries until about Noon PST Tuesday.  I’m not sure things will be any more clear in 26 hours than they are now.

There’s so much happening Tuesday that one could ask a bunch of different questions.  Please answer at least the main contest question and the tie breakers.

Some people have expressed interest in other questions, so those will follow.  They’ll be treated as separate contests and are optional.

MAIN CONTEST QUESTIONS

DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONTESTS

Primaries: AL, AS, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT

Caucus/conventions: AK, CO, ID, KS, MN, NM, ND (also, DA begin voting) [Do not use in main question.]

AS = American Samoa

DA = Democrats Abroad

Main question — List the primary states won by each candidate, according to plurality popular vote (to make it easier to answer, “none” and “the rest” are acceptable answers):

Hillary Clinton:

Barack Obama:

Scoring – 1 point per pledged delegate at stake in each state you get right.

First Tie-breaker — List the number of pledged delegates each candidate will win on Feb. 5 (1,449 pledged delegates are at stake), including:

Hillary Clinton:

Barack Obama:

Second Tie- breaker — Who wins CA and by what percentage margin statewide?

REPUBLICAN PARTY CONTESTS

Primaries: AL, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT

Caucus/conventions: AK, CO, DA, MN, MT, ND, WV [Do not use in main question.]

Main question — List the primary states won by each candidate, according to plurality popular vote:

Mike Huckabee:

Mitt Romney:

John McCain:

Ron Paul:

Scoring – 1 point per pledged delegate at stake in each state you get right.

First Tie-breaker — List the number of pledged delegates each candidate will win on Feb. 5 (836 pledged delegates are at stake):

Mike Huckabee:

Mitt Romney:

John McCain:

Ron Paul:

Second Tie-breaker — Who wins CA and by what percentage margin statewide, over which second place candidate (e.g., “Smith over Jones by 4%”)?

SUPPLEMENTAL QUESTIONS (OPTIONAL)

1) Which candidates, if any, drop out immediately (within 48 hours) after Feb. 5?

Democratic candidates (Clinton, Obama, Gravel):

Republican candidates (Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Paul):

2) Aggregate percentage of the vote in the Feb. 5 primary states?

Hillary Clinton:

Barack Obama:

Others:

Mike Huckabee:

Mitt Romney:

John McCain:

Ron Paul:

Others:

Some longer term questions:

4) On what date will the party’s nominee mathematically clinch the nomination (counting unpledged delegate endorsements)?

FYI REFERENCE INFO

DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONTESTS

Primaries: AL, AS, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT

Caucus/conventions: AK, CO, ID, KS, MN, NM, ND (also, DA begin voting)

REPUBLICAN PARTY CONTESTS

Primaries: AL, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT

Caucus/conventions: AK, CO, DA, MN, MT, ND, WV

Primary (not caucus) election states, with the number of Dem/GOP delegates at stake, by poll closing time (PST) and number of Dem delegates at stake:

4pm – GA (87/72)

5pm – IL (153/57), NJ (107/52), MA (93/40), MO (72/58), TN (68/52), AL (52/45), CT (48/27), OK (38/38), DE (15/18)

5:30pm – AR (35/34)

6pm – NY (232/87), AZ (56/50)

7pm – UT (23/36)

8pm – CA (370/170)

If the delegates don’t match what you see in the media, that’s because they often just list the total number delegates per state.  I am excluding each state’s unpledged delegates however, as they are not chosen in these primaries and are free to support any candidate they choose at the national conventions.

LINKS

Reference:

The Green Papers: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/…

2008 Democratic Convention Watch: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

CNN Dems: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…

CNN GOP: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…

Polling sites:

Pollster: http://pollster.com/

Real Clear Politics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ (right wing, but for these elections, their averages might be more useful than pollsters trends)

CA-Pres: Giuliani’s lead evaporating?

Whoa. The latest poll from SurveyUSA on the GOP presidential primary race in California shows Giulani’s lead having shrunk from 20% last month to just 2% a mere 5 days after Fred Thompson’s announcement on Jay Leno. If Thompson can pick off California, we could be moving a lot closer to a deadlocked GOP convention.

Obviously, this is just one poll, and it could be an outlier. All of us regular SSP readers know better than to jump to conclusions just yet. But to go from a 20% lead to a 2% lead with a 4.4% MOE strongly suggests something big could be going on here.

Crosstab analysis below the flip.

Thompson leads by 4% with men, but trails 12% with women. The partisan breakdown by gender is huge here: 63% of the likely GOP primary voters were men. Thompson remained completely flat with women since last month, while Romney gained 8% among women.

Among conservatives (58%), Thompson beats Giuliani 31% to 22% (with McCain and Romney trailing at 17% and 16% respectively). Moderates (33%) strongly go for Giuliani (40%). Thompson gains 8% with conservatives.

Blacks (3%) preferred Thompson to Giuliani 35% to 23%. Thompson gains 20% here, more than double his previous numbers.

Thompson leads by 1% among a crucial GOP voter segment, complete idiots people who think Global Warming is made-up, whereas more sensible GOP voters (relatively speaking here) prefer Giuliani by 5%.

76% of likely GOP voters oppose gay marriage, and they prefer Thompson by 1%

Gun owners prefer Thompson by 2%, the gunless go for Rudy by 7%.

Young voters prefer Rudy, and increasing agge correlates with increasing preference for Thompson.

Here’s a really odd one. Giuliani leads among Bush voters (85%) by 2%. Thompson leads among Kerry voters (7%) by 3%. However, those who think Bush is one of the Greatest American Presidents (26%) prefer Thompson by 2%, and those who think he is one of the worst (18%) prefer Giuliani by 6%.

So, why do we care? If Thompson wins CA and the South, and Romney wins the Mountain West, eastern New England, and gives a strong showing in the Midwest (winning IA, MI, and perhaps some of the Great Plains states), and Giuliani does his thing in the Mid-Atlantic, Illinois, and Swing States like FL, MO, OH, and CO, then we could be headed for a deadlocked contest that goes to the convention for a resolution. This would force the GOP candidates to spend money on the primaries rather than saving for the General election. It would also increase the chances of the GOP’s weakest candidate, Mitt Romney, getting nominated and then crushed by the Democratic nominee in the general.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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MI-Pres: Romney leading by 26% in Michigan

Michigan Republicans are going ga-ga for native son Mitt Romney, according to the latest ARG poll.

Among 600 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 39%) leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (13%) and former Sen. Fred Thompson (12%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 9%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

(h/t – Pollster)

Analysis below the flip.

If the Republicans nominate Romney, we will win the White House in 2008 easily – every head-to-head matchup shows Romney getting crushed. Do you think a Romney win is far-fetched? Looks at the GOP primary schedule so far (subject to change, obviously):

Wyoming, 1/5: No polling yet, but this is Mormon country. Romney will win here.
Iowa, 1/14: Romney leading by 10% in the latest poll.
Michigan, 1/15: Romney leading by 26%, and was born here.
Nevada, 1/19: Mormon territory. Romney leading by 10%.
South Carolina, 1/19: Trends are pointing towards a win for Thompson, but the most recent poll (ARG) has Giuliani up by 5. I predict Thompson will take it though.
New Hampshire, 1/22: Romney up by 4%

Of course, this will be followed by Florida, which will likely be a big win for Giuliani, and then Maine – the last time Maine was polled was in May, when McCain was still leading in New Hampshire. I think a strong performance in New Hampshire could lead to a Romney win in Maine. That would have Romney racking up double-digit victories in the first 3 contests, winning 5 of the first 6 states, and 6 of the first 8 states.

That’s a pretty strong position to head in to Super Tuesday, isn’t it? Now, granted, Giuliani is likely score major victories on Super Tuesday – California, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, for example, and probably Illinois and Colorado. It could also be a good day for Thompson, with wins in Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, and possibly Missouri and Arkansas (if Huckabee drops). Romney will pick up Utah, and if McCain has dropped out, he could net Arizona as well. With the momentum he’s generated, could it make him competitive in Super Tuesday states that have not been polled (or not polled in the past 3 months) such as Minnesota, Delaware, West Virginia, Alaska, Oklahoma, and North Dakota?

Giuliani will certainly perform well in most of the biggest states in the union: CA, NY, FL, IL, PA, and NJ, with very strong numbers in the mid-atlantic region. Thompson’s powerbase will be in the mighty Southeast. If Thompson draws enough votes to win Virginia, Giuliani might not win enough delegates for a majority. In order to compete with Giuliani, Romney will need strong performances in the remaining 3 areas of the country: New England, the Midwest, and the West.

In New England, he’s leading in New Hampshire, and his connections as former Governor of Massachusetts combined with the collapse of the McCain campaign could help boost Romney over Giuliani. In the West, he has a strong Mormon base in UT, NV, ID, and WY (not to mention being CEO of the organizing committee for the Salt Lake City Olympics), and the latest polling puts him within 1% in Oregon and second place behind McCain in Arizona (New Mexico, Washington, and Colorado look like Giuliani zones for now). That leaves the rather underpolled Midwest – which is where Romney was born and leads in MI and IA. Could IN, MN, and the Great Plains follow suit? If Romney can exploit his midwestern roots (possibly with a little ethanol support added in), a Romney nomination might actually happen. And for us, that’s a Good Thing.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Fred Thompson’s in, and leading the South

Fred Thompson’s officially in the GOP primary race for President, now, and so far, he’s the clear leader in the heavily Republican South.

Alabama: Thompson 31%, Giuliani 26%, McCain 16%, Gingrich 8%, Romney 3%, Undecided 13% (ARG 7/30-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
Georgia: Thompson 27%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 14%, Gingrich 13%, McCain 7%, Huckabee 3%, Brownback 2%, Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/2-8/6 MOE +/-4%)
Kentucky: Not polled. Borders Tennessee.
Louisiana: Not polled.
Mississippi: Not polled.
North Carolina: Thompson 30%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 12%, McCain 7%, Other 7%, Undecided 23% (PPP (D) 8/1-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
South Carolina: Rudy Giuliani 26%, Fred Thompson 21%, John McCain 12%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Mitt Romney 9%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Sam Brownback 2%, Ron Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/26-8/28 MOE +/-4%) – Note: 3 other polls in August (PPP, Rasmussen, Clemson U) have Thompson leading by 1-4%
Tennessee: Fred Thompson 45%, Rudy Giuliani 15%, Newt Gingrich 11%, John McCain 10% (InsiderAdvantage 3/31-4/1)
Texas: Fred Thompson 25%, Rudy Giuliani 21%, Mitt Romney 15%, Mike Huckabee 13%, John McCain 8%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 8%, Undecided 5% (IVR 8/29 MOE 4.1%) – Note: Past Primary Voters polled
Virginia: Only poll was in February, and Thompson wasn’t even an option.
Arkansas: Only poll was in March, with Huckabee having a massive lead.

Florida, of course, is very different from the rest of the South – latest numbers there (Rasmussen) are Rudy Giuliani 30%, Fred Thompson 17%, Mitt Romney 15%, John McCain 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%.

So far, it looks like Thompson has a well-defined Dixie powerbase, comparable to Romney’s popularity in the Mormon Mountain States (UT, ID, NV, and the unpolled WY) but much larger (Romney also holds IA, NH, and MI so far). Giuliani, however, still holds a massive lead in the Big Blue states (NY, CA, IL, NJ, PA) and swing states like FL, OH, MO, NM, CO, OR, WI, and WA.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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All Congress (Impact of the Presidential Candidates)

The last diary I wrote concerned the general expectations of the Congressional elections, and since this will definitely have a substantial impact on the Congressional elections, I think we need to look at how specific presidential candidates affect the congressional races.

To keep this from getting too out of hand, I'm only really looking at the top candidates for each party (Democrats: Clinton, Obama, and Edwards; Republicans: Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, and McCain)

 

Disclosure: I'm supporting Barack Obama in the presidential primaries.

Democratic Candidates

Hillary Clinton: Ok, to get this out of the way, Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner and, at the moment, most likely to win the nomination. The congressional races she helps are going to be in already blue states: Oregon (Gordon Smith) New Hampshire (Sununnu) possibly Minnesota (Coleman). In House races, she again helps freshman who are in blue districts and states and will help our efforts against the remainder of the northeast Republicans (Chris Shays, the lone New England Republican for one). Now here's the bad part: she's not all that helpful in the midwest or the south where quite a few Senate races could become competitive if the conditions are right: Kentucky (McConnell) Texas (Cornyn) North Carolina (Dole) Alabama (Sessions) Colorado (open) and Tennessee (Alexander).

My analysis: Clinton wins at the cost of the other tickets. Bill Clinton did the same thing in the 1996 election and that's what I think would happen here.

Barack Obama: Alright, Obama is the number two and, depending on the circumstances, could upset Clinton. So what does Obama do for the congressional ticket? Well, he's actually a ticket enhancer. Obama's candidacy will boost turnout of black voters and young voters (blacks vote at least 90% for Democrats and in southern states like Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama it could lead to some good upsets). Additionally, Obama also seems to do well among independents which would definitely be good for the two freshman congressmen in New Hampshire and in some red districts where winning over independent voters is important.

My analysis: Obama is a ticket-lifter, he doesn't inherently hurt the ticket the way Clinton does and, in fact, depending on who the Republicans pick, could actually put some extra seats into play that otherwise wouldn't be competitve.

John Edwards: Ok, Edwards is the dark-horse right now, and unless something really dramatic happens he's not winning the nomination, but having said that, here's my analysis of his impact on congressional races. Edwards is definitely a popular figure in the midwest and in a few of the southern states (North and South Carolina for instance). He'd definitely help candidates like Pryor and Harkin in Arkansas and Iowa respectively, and could probably do something about Elizabeth Dole (seriously, why doesn't he just drop out of the presidential race and just rerun for the Senate against Liddy Dole?).

My analysis: Edwards is more of a help than a detriment, and, quite frankly, had he been the nominee in 2004, we'd probably have picked up a couple of those southern seats in the Senate. Edwards share Obama's ability to make some southern seats more competitive, though his being on the ticket in 2004 does make him more polarizing than in previous years and being able to be linked to Kerry in the south could do more harm than good to congressional races. (John, it's not too late to challenge Liddy…)

Republicans to be added tomorrow

 

Presidential Matchups in North Carolina

Public Policy Polling is out with another poll.  This one is huge, with a lot of results for us to talk about.

But, before I dive into details, check out this quick insert from the Indy Weekly of the Triangle:
 

Our tracking signals indicate that Dole rarely travels to North Carolina, whereas Miller seems to be in perpetual campaign motion there. And Republicans like Dole are out of favor for sticking so close to President Bush, are they not? We thus conclude that Miller would beat Dole like a tympanic skin-a drum, I believe you call it.

Ok, now that I have your attention, to the poll.  This poll (link at bottom) consisted of 800 likely voters pulled from the voter rolls.

First, lets hit on the big and simple numbers.
Bush’s approval in North Carolina is 37%, with 59% Disapproval.

This number has been fairly consistent for a while.  If anything this number is worse than it has been in the past.

Next up is Elizabeth Dole.

This poll has Dole’s approval rating at 48% approval and 40% disapproval.  Her numbers have been fluctuating at around +5%.  She might have grabbed a point or two because she killed the immigration bill (first thing she has accomplished in months), but I think this is just margin of error fluctuations.

Just for kicks PPP did a matchup poll between Dole and each of the Democratic candidates for Governor.  Dole leads Lt Gov Beverly Perdue 46 to 37.  Dole leads Treasurer Richard Moore 45 to 34.

Neither of them will actually run, but its interesting because this is matchup poll #6 where Dole has polled below 50%.

From the other side of the aisle, Right Wing think lie tank Civitas has a poll out showing slightly different results.  I wont link to their poll unless I have to, for the same reason I wouldnt link to Rush Limbaugh or Bill O’Reilly.  However, I will talk about their results.

I do not trust these results, as they are normally as Republican friendly as possible without the group losing their non-profit status.  However, with that caveat, their poll results are really good for us.  They give Dole the same 48% approval rating, but with an impossibly low 28% disapproval.  They also show 22% with no opinion.  They also polled for Brad Miller, showing him with 14% approval, 10% disapproval, 38% no opinion and 38% dont know his name.  Considering Brad has only been in Congress since 2002, this is not too surprising.  It might be a little low, but is about what I expected his numbers to be.  If he is going to beat Dole it will just be a question of whether he can raise the money needed to get his name in front of people.

With all of those caveats, they polled Dole v Miller, and got 46% Dole 31% Miller.  So, a Republican friendly poll against a guy with 24% name ID, and they still cant give her numbers above 50%.  She is in BIG trouble.

Ok, back to the Public Policy Poll.  They did matchup polling between Hillary, Obama, Edwards and Rudy McRomneyson.

Against Rudy
Giuliani 47% Clinton 43%
Giuliani 46% Obama 42%
Giuliani 45% Edwards 46%

Against Romney
Romney 41% Clinton 47%
Romney 40% Obama 44%
Romney 37% Edwards 51%

Against McCain
McCain 44% Clinton 45%
McCain 45% Obama 44%
McCain 40% Edwards 48%

Against Thompson
Thompson 46% Clinton 43%
Thompson 45% Obama 40%
Thompson 43% Edwards 47%

In the crosstabs, Edwards bleeds off more Republican support than either Obama or Clinton.  But, his real strength is amongst independent voters.  Obama does the worst job of holding onto Democrats, but he is buoyed by his support amongst independents.

What is really interesting is the similarities amongst black voters for all the candidates.  Personally, I think these polls might be even better news for us than seem.  Does anyone really believe that Obama would lose up to 20% of black voters to McCain?  Does anyone really believe that on election day 24% of black voters will choose Rudy over Edwards?

All these Republicans have way too many skeletons for that to happen, meaning you can probably safely add 2-3 points to every Democratic result.

Some other thoughts on cross tabs.
Dole’s support amongst women is still much healthier than her support amongst men.  This is something that can be changed just by focusing on her actual record on “women’s issues”. 

Our numbers amongst younger voters are simply astonishing.
Amongst voters between the ages of 18 and 29:
Edwards leads Romney 64 to 33! 
Obama leads McCain 61 to 33!

There is a lot more to swallow, check out the poll for yourself.  There are 12 pages (PDF) of statistical goodness.

A quick personal note to end the diary.  Thank you to the people who donated to Brad Miller yesterday.  The Draft page raised over a 1000 dollars yesterday with donors from Kentucky to NC, and donations from $20.00 to $1000.08  Thank you a thousand times over to those people who put their money where their mouth is.

New Poll NC Prez Dem 47 Rep 42

On national maps North Carolina is often colored red.  We havent voted for a Democrat for the White House since Carter in 1976.  But that might be changing.

In a new poll by Public Policy Polling, when asked who they would vote for in the 2008 Presidential election, 42 percent of voters said a Republican.  But, in a huge surprise, 47 percent of voters said a Democrat.

PPP has been doing a lot of tracking polls lately, and I have a large amount of respect for them and their sister company, On Point Polling.  This poll was done with 606 voters.  The way PPP does their sampling, these were people who will be voting in 2008.

This poll (PDF) has some incredibly interesting results within it.  The question that will get the most media attention is the matchup question between Elizabeth Dole and Roy Cooper.  In that race, Dole is under 50 percent, and has a lead of 46 to 36.  That means that so far Dole has polled at 45 and 44 against 2 Democratic Congressman, 40 percent against our governor, and 46 percent against our Attorney General.

She is in a ton of trouble.

Her approval rating is plus 4, 45% to 41%.  President Bush’s numbers are also ugly, with a negative 11 rating.

The poll also asked if people would be more or less likely to vote Democratic based upon specific nominees.  Surprisingly for me, Hillary does a lot better on this question that I would have expected.  The details though are not all that surprising.  Obama would give huge motivation to black voters, and Hillary is hated by Republicans.  Nothing really shocking.

This poll also contained some very interesting crosstabs.  For instance, we are home to both Ft Bragg and Camp Lejeune, among other bases.  Both of these massive installations are within the 910 area code.  In that area code, Bush’s approval rating is 47 to 45 (plus 2).  On the generic ballot, a Democratic Presidential candidate leads 46 to 42.  The best part is that those numbers are before we start showing ads like this for the third Senator from Virginia.

In addition to this poll, a new poll by Conservative, Non Partisan Republican think tank Civitas shows even worse results for Bush and national Republicans.  I take all of their results with a grain of salt, but their poll showed Bush with a 39 percent approval rating, with 57 percent disapproving (43% strongly disapprove).  Even more telling is their question about the surge strategy:

Do you think the President’s new strategy in Iraq along with the troop surge is:
Improving the Situation 19%
Not making much difference 34%
Making things worse 36%

That is right.  In “Red” North Carolina, the most military friendly state in the country, 70% of voters think the surge is either useless or counterproductive.

Dole has been an unapologetic supporter of Bush.  In fact, in February there was an article in the Charlotte Observer talking about how she was taking a stand separate from most of her fellow NC Republicans to support the surge loudly in public.  Sadly, I cant find that article without paying big bucks for it.

Add on top of all of these polls an article written by Stuart Rothenberg prior to these results about Texas and North Carolina.

In contrast, Democrats have won the past four gubernatorial elections in North Carolina, and the party last won a Senate seat in 1998. While Republicans hold all of the most high-profile statewide offices in Texas, Democrats hold the top offices in North Carolina. And while Republicans hold both chambers of the Texas state Legislature, Democrats have solid majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina Legislature.
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On the other hand, Rep. Brad Miller and North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper reportedly are considering a challenge to Dole, and Tar Heel State Democrats are in a far stronger position to recruit a candidate against the Republican Senator.
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Dole isn’t much more vulnerable until Democrats get a formidable candidate in the race, but if and when they do, the state’s dynamics, at the very least, offer them a scenario for success.

North Carolina, therefore, bears watching.

In light of all the polling that we have seen in this race, I would say Rothenberg’s analysis is actually pessimistic.  But, he is obviously correct in saying that we need a top tier challenger.  I personally want to see Brad Miller take up the banner.  But no matter who runs she is vulnerable.

For more info on this race, and on a Brad candidacy please visit this website.

I got some press for the Draft Brad website yesterday.  It is only online for now, but its a start.

Romney Leads New Hampshire

Virtually all national polls show that pretty much any leading Democrat would wipe the floor with Mitt Romney. So this here poll from the Granite State sounds like Very Good News to me.

More below the flip….

According to a SurveyUSA poll of 551 likely Republican Primary voters, Mitt Romney gathered 32%, followed by Rudy Guiliani at 23% and John McCain with 22%. Fred Thompson finished fourth with 11%.

Romney leads by 9%, a result sure to please Mormons and ecumenical Christian conservatives, and horrify the more traditional anti-Mormon Christian fundamentalists that make up the Republican base. As expected, Rudy and McCain are neck and neck in the somewhat (small-L) libertarian state that went for McCain in 2000, but they are far behind the former Massachusetts governor. Obviously, it appears that downstate Republicans in the Boston media market are sweet on him.

Looking at the crosstabs, we start with what we already know – his lot is cast with the conservative wing of his party – and find a few interesting tidbits: he gets impressive support from union households, people who don’t own guns, and Generation Y.

In a poll of 589 likely Democratic Primary voters, Clinton gets 40%, Obama follows with 24%, while John Edwards trails with 22%.

Not much to report there. The last time Rasmussen polled Clinton vs. Romney nationally, Hillary was up by 9%. Obama led by 15%, and Edwards led by 26%. Heck, even Richardson leads Romney by 8%.

Now, I don’t think Romney has a shot outside of New England and the Mormon Belt (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, maybe Nevada). But if Romney wins New Hampshire, that hopefully will make the GOP primary at least a 3 man race for that much longer. You have to wonder what things will be like in South Carolina – do they go for the “liberal”, the man they spurned in 2000, or the Mormon? Or do they go outside the top 3 and vote for Huckabee, Thompson, or Brownback? Anyone else thinking it depends which one hires the slimiest folks to pull tricks out of the Lee Atwater playbook?

I guess I should welcome myself back to being an SSP diarist after a hiatus of several months. I’ll keep watching those polls, ladies and gents.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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