Tag: Georgia

The following is a bit of a thought experiment. Imagine a Democratic Gerrymander of Georgia that could more or less ignore the VRA, or at least go with the standard of “majority minority” rather than striving for 50%+ Black.  I used Dave’s Redistricting App, with the new population estimates, creating 14 districts.  I was not as aggressive as fitchfan28 and focused my efforts on the Atlanta area leaving South Georgia largely unchanged.

District 1 (Dark Blue):

Not much different from before. Jack “Pelosi is destroying families by making us work Mondays” Kingston will have no trouble here.

District 2 (Dark Green):

Also not much change.  Sanford Bishop’s district continues to be racially mixed, with a narrow White majority.  Perfect for a Black Blue Dog.

District 3 (Salmon):

First of several of the majority minority districts. Southern parts of Fulton County balance out some more conservative suburbs.  Contains some of the Black suburbs as well.

District 4 (Red):

Heart of Atlanta and much of Cobb county.  At little more White than some of the others, but still not a majority.

District 5 (Purple):

The most diverse of all the districts.  Large populations of Whites, Blacks, Hispanics and Asians.

District 6 (Aquamarine):

This district is about 2/3rds White.  It might be more Liberal, being located largely in Fulton and Dekalb counties, it might not be.  I didn’t have political data.  (Anyone familiar with Georgia care to comment?)

District 7 (Gold):

A fairly equal mix of Whites from  and Blacks. Some other minorities, but not as many as the 5th.

District 8 (Light Purple):

I took away Macon, but made it up with Athens.  Only after I drew the lines did I realize that Jim Marshall lives in Macon and may choose to run in the new 13th.  The district is just over 60% White, so there’s enough minorities and Liberals (in Clark County) the Dems might do okay.

District 9 (Cyan):

Very Conservative and White.

District 10 (Pink):

See district 9.

District 11 (Grey):

Conservative Atlanta Exurbs and North Georgia district.  Would be a good landing spot for Tom Pierce, if the 6th is too urbanized now.

District 12 (Light Green):

Not too different from the old 12th, though a little bit blacker. (Now Majority Minority)

District 13 (Periwinkle):

Whites are just under to a majority in this rural and exurban district.

District 14 (Mustard):

Another majority minority district with whites and blacks in close numbers.

Overall, 6 minority districts, which should all go to the Dems, plus Bishop’s Second, which is an easy hold.  The new 8th will be a bit of a struggle but doable and potential pickup in the 6th, depending on how the numbers run.  So a total of 7 – 9 districts out of 14, without any aggressive Gerrymandering.

Episode 4 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states is here! I was inspired to finally put it together after BigTentProgressive’s excellent Texas redistricting diary. On the agenda today: some peaches for the First Lady’s new garden. (Which is my not-so-clever way of saying that I’m covering Georgia and New Jersey in today’s diary.)

Previously covered:

Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas

Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada

Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio

Unfortunately, my districts are based on county estimates from 2007, and just this week the Census released 2008 numbers. Since my maps were drawn before the 2008 release, they are worth taking with a grain of salt. Also, I am using projected seat totals for post-2010 redistricting that are equally subject to change.

Geeky playtime below the fold!

Georgia

Sadly for those of us who live here, there is close to zero chance of a Democratic takeover in the legislature and only an outside chance of snagging the open governor’s mansion in 2010, as the Dem bench has become thinner and thinner since the state GOP’s rebirth in 2002. So I drew this map with a GOP gerrymander in mind, and as a result, it doesn’t look dramatically different than the 2005 map currently in place. With the Atlanta area providing the vast majority of growth in the state, a new 14th District is likely to be carved out of suburban counties, and should lean Republican given who will be drawing the lines.

One wrinkle to the plan in this state: the Supreme Court’s ruling in Bartlett v. Strickland means that the 2nd, 12th, and 13th Districts, all with black populations around 40-45%, will not be considered protected by the Voting Rights Act for purposes of future redistricting. Now, Sanford Bishop and David Scott are both black and have never been GOP targets, but John Barrow could be a casualty in future cycles (since his seat is under 50% black, the Supreme Court would not consider it VRA-protected). The real question is, would GOP mapmakers gerrymander Barrow’s district for a white Republican, or for a black Democrat? Given the sensitivity of the issue, and the need not to spread GOP votes too thin, I’m guessing the latter option would be more likely in this case, so I clearly tried to increase the 12th’s black % by including more of Augusta.

Barrow’s seat should stay Dem-leaning, probably getting even more so as its black population is boosted. Bishop, Johnson, Lewis, and Scott will all be protected by a GOP-drawn map (though I couldn’t figure out how to make Scott’s a VRA African-American seat as long as it resembles its current form). Then, of course, there’s Jim Marshall. Knowing Republicans will try again to mess with him, I cut out Dem-trending Newton County and added some rural Middle Georgia turf with the aim of getting his 8th District to be about 60% McCain instead of 56%. But as long as his Macon base isn’t split, it’s hard to make the 8th much more inhospitable. (One obvious option I didn’t consider to endanger Marshall: trade some of his southern turf with Jack Kingston, whose seat is already ridiculously safe. Perhaps only a real Republican would think of these things.)

Anyway, Marshall aside, the other five Dem seats are as safe as before, if not safer.

Enough ado, here it is:

District 1 – Jack Kingston (R-Savannah) — my Representative (cringe) will have the most heavily Republican seat south of the Appalachian hills. Savannah’s east side and islands do lean Republican, but it’s really the many rural counties of South Georgia that cause my travesty of congressional representation.

District 2 – Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) — may be right on the threshold of 50% black, but either way, it stays at least 54-45 Obama, somewhat rural but anchored in Columbus and Albany, and doubtlessly safe for Bishop.

District 3 – Lynn Westmoreland (R-Grantville) — these are some of the most Republican counties in the Atlanta area, so perhaps some of them could be reserved for the new 14th, but I found that after finishing the 13 incumbents, there was leftover population east of the city, not west of it.

District 4 – Hank Johnson (D-Lithonia) — still majority-black and overwhelmingly Democratic, but now entirely within DeKalb County.

District 5 – John Lewis (D-Atlanta) — also majority-black and overwhelmingly Democratic, but now entirely within Fulton County.

District 6 – Tom Price (R-Roswell) — probably remains the most educated and wealthy district in the state, and despite Democratic trends in Cobb and north Fulton, the whole inclusion of Cherokee County will protect Price and future Republicans here.

District 7 – John Linder (R-Duluth) — entirely within Gwinnett now, safe for him (for now) but trending the other way long-term. I guesstimate that McCain would have won only 54-57% in this district, so the GOP would probably draw it a bit differently than I, but there’s no escaping the inevitable: whether it involves Linder’s retirement or a competitive new 14th, eventually there will be a Democrat representing the eastern suburbs as long as the area continues its long-term diversification.

District 8 – Jim Marshall (D-Macon) — a bit more Republican than before; Marshall might survive in this conservative and military-heavy district, but a future Democrat probably wouldn’t.

District 9 – Nathan Deal (R-Gainesville) — some of the most conservative territory anywhere is in Appalachian North Georgia, so Deal gets the “safest Georgia Republican” prize.

District 10 – Paul Broun (R-Athens) — I hate Athens being in this hard-right district, but Republicans quite like the arrangement.

District 11 – Phil Gingrey (R-Marietta) — with Cobb County trending Democratic long-term, Gingrey can take solace in the rest of his district, with fast-growing but very conservative Paulding County now a secondary population base.

District 12 – John Barrow (D-Savannah) — intending to increase the black percentage here, I give Barrow 71% of Chatham and 83% of Richmond. Though Barrow is getting entrenched, a credible black primary challenger could give him a run for his money, and as an open seat this would be good territory for a black pol from either Augusta or Savannah. In any case, the district’s Obama percentage should be boosted a couple points into the high 50s.

District 13 – David Scott (D-Atlanta) — this is an ugly and meandering shape, but my intent was to keep fast-growing eastern suburbs together in a GOP seat and consolidate Scott’s Atlanta base. I don’t know the black population in this district (can’t be much more than 40-45%), but including the entirety of Clayton County, and 13% of Fulton, can’t hurt. Though it holds 66% of somewhat GOP-leaning Henry County, the other suburban areas are fairly Dem-friendly (25% of Douglas County, Smyrna and other towns in eastern Cobb).

And the new District 14 – runs clockwise from Forsyth County down to Henry County — the long-term trends in this district are blue, at least in its southern half, but with deep-red Forsyth the largest source of population, Republican X should be fine for a few cycles at least. As long as Gwinnett and Henry stay in the GOP column, Democrats can only make so much headway here by winning Newton and Rockdale. My guess is the 2008 vote would have been about 60-40 McCain here.

So the end result is an 8-6 GOP delegation if Marshall survives, 9-5 if he doesn’t. Now if only I could figure out how to put my home in Barrow’s district without disrupting the 12th’s delicate VRA balance…

New Jersey

In New Jersey, the game is rather different. A bipartisan/independent commission draws the lines, but unlike in Iowa, political considerations are very present in the mapping process. This being a bipartisan effort, incumbent protection is a top priority. My map focused on protecting all incumbents, especially two in South Jersey (Dem John Adler, whose district under my proposal would be about as solidly Democratic as Rob Andrews’, and Republican Frank LoBiondo, whom I gave the most Republican district I possibly could). I kept Albio Sires’ seat VRA Hispanic and Don Payne’s VRA African-American.

The pinch is this: New Jersey is expected to shed a seat, for a new total of 12. I was initially planning to force together two North Jersey Dems (Bill Pascrell and Steve Rothman) then thought to instead put together two Republicans (Rodney Frelinghuysen and Leonard Lance), but realized that a bipartisan commission would likely seek a bipartisan fight. Thus my North Jersey districts are a bit ugly, especially Rothman’s 9th, but the solution was reached: Pascrell vs. Frelinghuysen in the new 8th, which probably would have favored Obama by a fair amount but is otherwise something of a swing district.

Again, apologies to Steve Rothman for the messy lines. He’s the new Frank Pallone in terms of representing an emaciated serpent in Congress:

District 1 – Rob Andrews (D-Haddon Heights) — still safely Democratic, but less so to help Adler, who would now represent 58% of Camden County, the home county of both Congressmen.

District 2 – Frank LoBiondo (R-Ventnor) — dominated by Ocean and Atlantic Counties, the most heavily Republican seat I could possibly carve out of South Jersey. It probably voted for McCain, though not by a lot, which is an improvement for the incumbent from a 54-45 Obama seat. Unlike before, Republicans would have a great shot at holding the 2nd when LoBiondo retires.

District 3 – John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) – 58% of Camden and 96% of Burlington = a safe seat.

District 4 – Chris Smith (R-Hamilton) — would now be not just more Republican, but more conservative too.

District 5 – Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) — sorry, folks, unless he’s a candidate for elimination, Garrett will be made safe by any commission-approved plan.

District 6 – Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch) — you must admit that these lines make a lot more sense.

District 7 – Leonard Lance (R-Clinton Township) — I attempted to pick up if not the more Republican areas of North-Central Jersey, then at least the less Democratic ones. The current 7th only narrowly voted for Obama and I think what I constructed may have (barely) voted for McCain, but there’s only so much that can be done for an incumbent with a district trending the other way. For Lance’s sake, he should work to maintain a moderate reputation.

District 8 – Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) vs. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-Morristown) — this is something of a quintessential North Jersey seat, with 67% of Pascrell’s home Passaic County, 59% of Frelinghuysen’s Morris, and the leftover 11% of Bergen. Since both Reps. have seniority and entrenched House careers under their belts, the real question is whether this district is liberal enough for Pascrell or conservative enough for Frelinghuysen. I have no idea how a real race would unfold here.

District 9 – Steve Rothman (D-Fair Lawn) — gerrymandered not for political expediency (Rothman has a safe seat, no question about it), but for pure numerical equalization.

District 10 – Donald Payne (D-Newark) — should still be majority-black and heavily Democratic.

District 11 – Rush Holt (D-Hopewell Township) — in the last round of redistricting, protecting Holt was the first consideration. Since his current district voted 58-41 for Obama, there’s little concern there, so my intent was to keep the district Dem-leaning and make it a little more compact.

District 12 – Albio Sires (D-West New York) — probably close to 50% Hispanic now due to demographic changes anyway, and including the leftover 27% of Union County shouldn’t much harm the district’s VRA legal status, particularly with all of Hudson County preserved in my proposed configuration.

11 incumbents are safe (most of them safer than before) in my plan, and the only real popcorn-worthy fight would be in the new 8th. New Jersey is one of the states I am least knowledgeable about demographically, so I’d greatly appreciate some insight into my hypothetical Pascrell/Frelinghuysen contest.

After looking over 2008 election results in various counties and congressional districts I’ve come across an interesting phenomenon that occurs in some high growth suburban areas versus others. Some areas seem to have changed very radically in the last 20 years and others have stayed largely the same. Forsyth County, GA (where I’m from) has seen ENORMOUS growth since the early 90s and was for a time the fastest growing county in the country but contrary to other high growth areas in the South such as the I-4 corridor in Florida, Northern Virginia, Charlotte and the Research Triangle in NC, Forsyth County really has not improved at all in terms of election numbers (Obama got under 20%). This along with Cherokee County which is also growing at a decent yet slower rate are where the GOP really runs up the score (80-20 in 100K plus counties isn’t too fun for Democrats statewide).  

The people in Forsyth County now are largely transplants from the Midwest and North East and come to Forsyth for the great schools, good quality of live as well the low property taxes available in these suburban/exurban counties as well as the lily white populace (forgive my cynicism), golf courses a plenty, and big fundamentalist churches.

I’ve always been perplexed as to why some high growth areas change politically and why others don’t. Do these transplants come here and assimilate with other like minded conservatives or do they come from areas that are already conservative? Do they seek out conservative Republican areas or is it just the nature of the beast in the suburbs/exurbs still (I feel that the exurbs are becoming worse and the suburbs better in the South)?

I’d appreciate anyone who has an experience living in one of these high growth suburban areas and what their analysis may be.

Another GA topic touched on in GA 2011 redistricting has been addressed below:

Democrats had control of the state legislature, governor’s mansion, and all but 2 statewide executive offices until 2002 and then from there saw a free fall starting with the GOV and state senate in 2002, then the state legislature in 2004 and finally the SOS and Lt. Governor in 2006* leaving us with only an 80 year old Ag Commissioner and two African Americans in as Attorney General and  Labor Commissioner (although both hold promise for future elections as GA becomes more and more black, especially Michael Thurmond the Labor Commissioner).

However things shifted dramatically back in Democrat’s favor in 2008 as Obama focused early on making GA a swing state (something he pulled back on later) cutting into 2004 margin by nearly 6 points. Yet the state party was somewhat ill prepared in picking up state legislative seats with only a net gain of 2 in 2008.

Demographic changes and a revised message more appealing to moderate suburban dwellers is the key to Democrats future. I might take until 2016 or 2018 until Democrats see a major statewide victory but it looks pretty inevitable gains will be made.

*Both ran for Governor, creating a highly divisive nasty primary that culminated into a nasty November result (worst performance ever for a Democrat for governor).

Further is a more detailed analysis of Georgia’s electoral future:

Atlanta’s population has been growing at a pretty healthy clip last I checked and it is now big as it was 20 something years ago which is incredible considering the opposing trend that was 50 plus years old (it is also becoming whiter and more liberal). That growing move-in trend will continue to have a significant electoral impact as strategies for winning the state are devised. While the black-majority rural areas and mid-size cities will continue to play an important role, the white conservative rural areas will largely be avoided (sans-Jim Marshall) in the coming years.

Fulton and Dekalb will grow to play an enormous influence in GOTV efforts and Gwinnett and Cobb counties will become important swing regions as they grow and diversify as Rockdale and Douglas already have. Again as mention above the forgotten yet increasingly important strategy will be to stop the bleeding in the 100K population suburban area counties such as Forsyth and Cherokee (smaller yet growing counties like Columbia, Jackson, Paulding, Barrow and Walton are pretty brutal as well). The key to victory lies in mitigating our losses in these new red bastions as we make greater inroads in the older, more built up suburbs while executing brilliant GOTV stragies in Fulton, Dekalb, Clayton, Richmond, Muscogee, Chatham and Clarke (Again I don’t think the Atlanta only campaign, while gaining credibility as a statewide strategy, could work without these mid-size cities involved example: Martin in 2008).  

Nobody could remember it ever being this crowded:

http://www.tondeestavern.com/…

Morning wait was about 45 minutes; afternoon 1.5 to 2 hours.

More pictures through the link.

Jack Kingston has DECLINED to debate Bill Gillespie for GA-01. Is Jack afraid to debate his record? That’s understandable, since he’s worse than Saxby on the middle class, on veterans’ issues, and on the environment.

Or maybe  he just wanted to join the pack of his fellow Republicans who DECLINED: John Linder, leaving Doug Heckman the floor for GA-07; Tom Price, leaving Bill Jones free rein in GA-06; and Lynn “uppity” Westmoreland, leaving Stephen Camp GA-03 camped in front of the TV cameras.

Jack only debated Bill once, in Brunswick, where Bill trounced him, so it’s no wonder Jack has backed out of the two debates scheduled since then.

Guess we’ll get to see Bill Gillespie take 30 minutes instead of 3 to remind us why he’s better than Jack for Georgia’s First District.

That’s worth going to a debate party. Or, if you’re going to be in Atlanta, go on down to GPB and join the live audience.

Today, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Allen Buckley, the Libertarian candidate for the Senate from Georgia, is going up on the air on cable in Metro Atlanta and Columbus.  This is good news.  The analysis for a Survey USA poll states that Buckley hurts Chambliss more.

The first ad is over the flip.

Allen Buckley Commercial #1 from Allen Buckley on Vimeo.

And while we’re here, give Jim Martin some love: a Act Blue.

We usually don’t delve too deeply into discussions on this year’s presidential race, but Barack Obama is waging an extraordinary campaign that could have some serious downballot effects, and that’s definitely worth a look when we discuss House and Senate campaigns across the country.

Putting his money where his mouth is, Obama has launched a new 60 second biographical ad in 18 states, including a number of “non-traditional” battlegrounds that are already making the pundit class chatter:

Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

This represents a serious commitment towards expanding the map. States like Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota are supposed to be off-limits for any reasonable Democrat, but Obama — aided by an unprecedented fundraising advantage — is playing by a different set of rules. We could see a very different kind of “trickle-down effect” this fall.

Alaska, for instance, hasn’t been seriously contested since the 1960s, yet Democrats are contesting the state at every level this year with extremely strong candidates (Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz). A number of recent polls — public and private — are showing Obama barely behind McCain in the state. This will make the lives of Begich and Berkowitz easier, as they won’t have to convince as many voters to split their tickets — a challenge, as Cillizza notes, that was too great of a burden for Tony Knowles to overcome in his strong campaign against Sen. Lisa Murkowski in 2004.

In Georgia, few believe that GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is in peril this year. However, we have seen indications that the Obama campaign plans to mount a massive registration drive to target 500,000 unregistered African-Americans in Georgia. If Democrats can field a strong nominee (say, Jim Martin?), could things get interesting here if Obama is not getting a John Kerry-like beating in the state?

There’s a lot to ponder here, but there’s a lot of potential for a rising Obama tide to lift many boats, especially with the great (but not surprising) news that Obama will not cede the GOP an inch by accepting public financing and abandoning his commanding financial edge. Unlike teasers like John Kerry’s brief ad campaigns in states like Louisiana and Virginia in 2004, Obama can afford to put his money where his mouth is — and that’s exciting.

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Fred Thompson’s officially in the GOP primary race for President, now, and so far, he’s the clear leader in the heavily Republican South.

Alabama: Thompson 31%, Giuliani 26%, McCain 16%, Gingrich 8%, Romney 3%, Undecided 13% (ARG 7/30-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
Georgia: Thompson 27%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 14%, Gingrich 13%, McCain 7%, Huckabee 3%, Brownback 2%, Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/2-8/6 MOE +/-4%)
Kentucky: Not polled. Borders Tennessee.
Louisiana: Not polled.
Mississippi: Not polled.
North Carolina: Thompson 30%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 12%, McCain 7%, Other 7%, Undecided 23% (PPP (D) 8/1-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
South Carolina: Rudy Giuliani 26%, Fred Thompson 21%, John McCain 12%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Mitt Romney 9%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Sam Brownback 2%, Ron Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/26-8/28 MOE +/-4%) – Note: 3 other polls in August (PPP, Rasmussen, Clemson U) have Thompson leading by 1-4%
Tennessee: Fred Thompson 45%, Rudy Giuliani 15%, Newt Gingrich 11%, John McCain 10% (InsiderAdvantage 3/31-4/1)
Texas: Fred Thompson 25%, Rudy Giuliani 21%, Mitt Romney 15%, Mike Huckabee 13%, John McCain 8%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 8%, Undecided 5% (IVR 8/29 MOE 4.1%) – Note: Past Primary Voters polled
Virginia: Only poll was in February, and Thompson wasn’t even an option.
Arkansas: Only poll was in March, with Huckabee having a massive lead.

Florida, of course, is very different from the rest of the South – latest numbers there (Rasmussen) are Rudy Giuliani 30%, Fred Thompson 17%, Mitt Romney 15%, John McCain 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%.

So far, it looks like Thompson has a well-defined Dixie powerbase, comparable to Romney’s popularity in the Mormon Mountain States (UT, ID, NV, and the unpolled WY) but much larger (Romney also holds IA, NH, and MI so far). Giuliani, however, still holds a massive lead in the Big Blue states (NY, CA, IL, NJ, PA) and swing states like FL, OH, MO, NM, CO, OR, WI, and WA.

The NRCC got its man in Georgia’s 8th District with Rick Goddard to challenge vulnerable incumbent Democrat Jim Marshall.  But does former Representative and 2006 candidate Mac Collins want another crack at the bat?  From Roll Call:

Former Rep. Mac Collins (R-Ga.) loaned his campaign committee $130,000 at the end of last month, further fueling speculation that he will run again for the 8th district seat held by Rep. Jim Marshall (D-Ga.).

Collins, who lost to Marshall last year by fewer than 2,000 votes, has made clear he is considering running again. However, many observers have believed – or better yet hoped – that ultimately Collins would pass after seeing much of the state and national Republican establishment coalesce behind retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Rick Goddard (R), who already is in the race.

Goddard, on paper at least, appears to be the GOP’s dream candidate in a district that tilts heavily toward Republicans in national elections. Goddard has been recruited to run before, and party leaders were ecstatic when he decided to get in the race this time.

But if Collins were to enter the race, there is little doubt the move would cause a debilitating primary – one that would produce a battered and cash-strapped nominee.

We can only hope!

After Marshall’s narrow win last November, some prognosticators (and I’m thinking of Chuck Todd & John Mercurio of the Hotline in particular) wrote off Marshall’s chances in 2008, saying that if he couldn’t win in a Democratic year like 2006, he’d be doomed in ’08.  Aside from the fact that the blue wave seemed to bypass Georgia last year, this analysis does not take into account that Marshall was the target of a mid-decade redistricting scheme that removed and replaced over 40% of his constituency with territory of a redder shade.  So Marshall will have had more time to do outreach and build his name in these areas by the time 2008 comes around.

Well-known Georgia populist firebrand and former state legistlator Wycliffe “Wyc” Orr is seriously considering a run against the incompetent and disgraceful Bush rubber stamp, Saxby Chambliss.

Orr, a north Georgia trial lawyer and military veteran, is well-respected throughout the state and is acknowledged as one of the best stump speakers among all Georgia politicians. A group of activist Georgia Democrats, concerned about the various weaknesses of the current 3 declared candidates, is strongly urging Wyc to run and has launched a “Draft Wyc” organization to support his candidacy.

Get an idea of Wyc’s stump strength in the video on the flip…

Orr, in a recent radio talk show appearance, has called for immediate, no-nonsense withdrawal from Iraq. He is regarded as a strong populist and exudes a persona that reminds one of Alabama’s Ron Sparks.

Read more about Wyc Orr and sign the draft petition here. There are also a number of video’s of Orr’s speeches on the site.

Georgia Democrats badly need an aggressive firebrand populist with great stump skills to challenge Chambliss, and Orr just may be the person to fill that bill. Two of the three declared candidates have major weaknesses, while the third and most viable of the three currently announced candidates lacks experience:

Vernon Jones, DeKalb County Chief Executive, Democrat who allegedly supported Bush in 2004. Long saddled with the reputation of a somewhat hedonistic private life, Jones has more baggage than can be found in the belly of a Boeing 777. He has only raised $18,000 thus far, an indication that he has little support.

Dale Cardwell, former WSB TV investigative reporter, is essentially a right wing Republican masquerading as a Democrat. His positions on various issues range from Republican-talking-point to just-plain- crazy…he wants to abolish the IRS for example. For more on Cardwell, his site is here.

Rand Knight, an environmental scientist, is the most appealing of the currently-declared candidates. A new face on the scene, his positions on issues are very much in sync with progressive Dem values. However, he is inexperienced and a marginal stump speaker. IMO, he is extraordinarily intelligent, but does not seem to have to capacity to communicate in such a way that the average Georgian would understand. His website, which can be found  here, is impressive but the verbiage is just too verbose. A Knight candidacy would be a good thing in that it would help him gain some seasoning as  campaigner, but in the big picture he’s not the right guy to face Chambliss at this time.
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Orr has great potential appeal. He has an impeccable reputation in terms of personal integrity, is a solid populist and life-long Democrat, is a veteran, and kicks ass as a speaker. Keep your eye on Wyc…he just may be the right guy to knock off Chambliss.

Crossposted at Daily Kos.