SSP Daily Digest: 11/8

MA-Sen: Well, that was a nice week off from forward-looking horse-race reporting. On to 2012: one of the first Dem names being floated as a potential challenger to Scott Brown is someone I’d never heard of till now, but who seems to have ‘rock star’ frequently appended to his name: Setti Warren, the mayor of the very affluent yet very liberal suburb of Newton. Warren, who is African-American, has been mayor of the city of 93,000 (which is 3% black) for only a year.

NV-Sen: In case it just wasn’t clear what an astoundingly well-handled re-election effort came from Harry Reid’s camp this year, check out Jon Ralston’s re-cap. He recounts how the groundwork was laid years ago, lopping off potential challengers until the weakest one was left standing, details the post-primary ad blast that defined Angle permanently, and also goes into how Reid’s team never lost faith that their own internal polls (the same ones Ralston saw) were right and the public polls were wrong.

And then there’s the 2012 race, already fascinating, with the first question being whether the unpopular and impoverished John Ensign even tries to run again. The LVRJ looks at the four top Dem contenders and six potential GOP challengers as well, including (could lightning strike twice?) Sharron Angle. The article also looks at potential musical chairs and open seats in the House, given the imminent creation of a Dem-leaning NV-04 and the possibility of multiple House members running for Senate.

UT-Sen: One guy who shouldn’t feel too confident going into 2012 is Orrin Hatch, despite his state’s GOP lean: Bob Bennett’s death by teabagging is a huge red flag, and now a poll from Mason-Dixon for the Salt Lake Tribune has him at a 40% re-elect, with 48% saying “someone else.” (Of course, that 48% no doubt includes both Dems and Tea Partiers.) No head-to-head numbers in the general or primary, though.

VA-Sen: Jim Webb has sounded notably ambivalent about the prospect of a run for re-election in 2012; it’s also been evident in his fundraising so far. A recent interview has him still continuing that tone, say he’s “still sorting that out” and seeing him venting about the White House.

WV-Sen: I suspect this isn’t likely to have the desired effect, but it certainly can’t hurt them to ask: the GOP is already leaning on newly-elected West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin to change parties. They’re offering him his pick of committee assignments (in the minority, natch) and citing the difficulty of running downticket from Obama in 2012 in WV.

CA-Gov: Here’s a nice bit of early perceptions-setting: Jerry Brown has ditched the offer of swank transition headquarters on Sacramento’s K Street (apparently Sacto has its own K St. that serves a similar purpose?) in favor of keeping operations at his old campaign HQ in Oakland. Shades of the old Plymouth Duster from 35 years ago! (Although it’s worth noting that the Duster, though considered an econobox at the time, today holds a minor place in the muscle car pantheon.)

IN-Gov: So this Mike Pence for Governor thing may not be a done deal yet. Moving to Gov was clearly done with an eye toward an eventual run for President (as nobody, if you’re not named James Garfield, gets elected Prez straight out of the House). But he still seems to be gauging the possibility of a 2012 run straight from the House, buoyed by his popularity at the last Value Voters Summit and the lack of a dominant player in the current GOP field. He says he’ll make a decision by the end of the year.

MT-Gov: This small state will have a big gubernatorial race in 2012, with Brian Schweitzer term-limited. Former Republican Rep.-at-large Rick Hill has just announced he’s running; Hill served from 1997 to 2000 before retiring because of health issues which he says have been resolved. Two other GOPers, former state Sens. Corey Stapleton and Ken Miller, are also running; no Dem has thrown his hat in yet.

KY-AG: This could be an interesting matchup, of the Senate race that could have been. The Kentucky off-year elections are in just one year, and Trey Grayson (the SoS, and loser of the GOP Senate primary) is looking for a promotion of sorts, to AG. That would put him up against Dem Jack Conway (loser of the Seante general), who presumably will be running for re-election.

DGA: One committee that can feel pleased with its mild overperformance (not that -5 seats is a good thing, of course, especially what with the heartbreaker in Florida, but there was some definite beating of the spread going on here) is the DGA. Director Nathan Daschle lays it out in a memo that’s worth reading if you need something to feel good about, pointing out that the GOP’s gain is explicable purely by the races that the DGA didn’t financially contest (KS, MI, OK, TN, and WY).

Leadership: It looks like we can call off the Pete Sessions Deathwatch. He’ll be back for another term at the helm of the NRCC (after abandoning plans to run for majority whip, which looks like it’ll fall effortlessly to Kevin McCarthy). Whether he can maintain the NRCC’s gains this next cycle will be the real test of Sessions’ abilities; although he’ll get some aid from redistricting, there’s an awful lot of deadwood washed up on the beach that’ll need protecting. Also, John Cornyn will almost certainly also be back at the NRSC, eager to finish what he got halfway through this cycle.

Meanwhile, as we mentioned last night, the DSCC chair is the hot potato that no one, even Charles Schumer, wants to hold. The main unresolved issue for the Dems is the minority whip race, which pits Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn against each other in the #2 spot on the truncated leadership ladder in the minority. Surpisingly, it seems like Hoyer may (despite what looks like Nancy Pelosi efforts to box him out) be able to pull this out, given some crossover support from many members of Pelosi’s camp (notably Ed Markey and Jerry Nadler). Progressive Caucus leadership (like Lynn Woolsey and Raul Grijalva) has lined up behind Clyburn, though. Here’s one weird suggestion for breaking the stalemate (from Jesse Jackson Jr.): both should get out of the whip race, and co-run the DCCC together (which, with Chris Van Hollen out, is also without a head right now).

Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings – November

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August, September and October rankings at links.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

To start with it may be worth highlighting the numbers from each of those previous three diaries.

August Projection

SENATE – GOP +5

GOVERNORS – GOP +5

September Projection

SENATE – GOP +6

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

October Projection

SENATE – GOP +7

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

I call that a trend. And not a good one. Unfortunately these final projections continue that trend.

SENATE

Dem Tilt

WA (Not at all confident here. And it will probably take several weeks to see if I’m right.)

Rep Tilt

NV (Polling could well be unreliable here but I have to go with it. Hope I’m wrong.)

CO (Bennet has held on well here but I suspect the year is too much for him.)

IL (Still possible that unexpected Dem turnout can save Alexi.)

PA (Sestak has closed fast but I don’t think it will be quite enough.)

Dem Lean

CA (This one was a worry at times but I think most of us always felt confident enough.)

WV (Still say he was crazy to push for an election this year but it looks like Manchin will get away with it.)

Rep Lean  

WI (Poor campaign from Feingold but may not have mattered. His principles are both admirable and frustrating all at the same time.)

AK (Murkowski likely pulls it off but weird things happen up there. No result of the three would shock me.)

Dem Favored

DE (Chris Coons will be my favorite Dem Senate Freshman. Not that there is much competition.)

CT (Another that caused a few nerves but the fundamentals always suggested retention.)

Rep Favored

MO (The state may be trending away but I think, like many before her, Robin will be back.)

NH (Many say Hodes ran a poor campaign. I don’t buy it. The year made it impossible here with so many indies.)

KY (Paul would have won even without Conway ad own goal. At least he will be entertaining.)

OH (Nobody was beating Portman this year with all that cash.)

FL (Rubio may or may not be a national figure in waiting but Crist is certainly done on that front.)

NC (Biggest recruiting fail of the cycle but even someone like Cooper may have struggled with the environment.)

IN (Surprisingly lackluster campaign from Ellsworth.)

AR (The state has finally broken to join the rest of the region in becoming Republican.)

LA (Vitter is scum but the electorate down their think Obama is scummier.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt  

OR (Kitzhaber turned things around just in time.)

VT (If Rasmussen says Shumlin is leading I’m more than happy to believe him for once.)

FL (Biggest consolation prize of the night.)

Rep Tilt

CT (Late momentum for Foley probably keeps this Republican.)

OH (Strickland may well yet pull this out. Would be a another great consolation prize.)

IL (Can turnout save Quinn? Probably not but possible.)

Dem Lean

CA (Money can’t buy you love and all that. Always preferred nostalgia myself.)

MN (I wonder what would have happened here without the perennial third wheel?)

MA (Very impressed with Patrick’s recovery. Cahill makes little difference in the end.)

HI (Abercrombie recovering from a few shaky polls.)

CO (Suspect Tancredo’s ceiling is 45 percent.)

RI (Chafee ain’t a Dem but Caprio makes him as good as.)

NH (Nature of the year that this ended as close as it did.)

Rep Lean  

PA (D, R, D, R. Like clockwork.)

TX (Very hopeful White has another run in him.)

GA (Environment means no return for Barnes despite Deal’s ethical issues.)

NM (Denish weighed down by Richardson and national environment but Martinez a good nominee anyway.)

WI (Barrett never could shake bad environment and Doyle’s unpopularity.)

SC (Tighter than many expected but Haley wins nevertheless.)

ME (Hoping Cutler can pull a shocker here but probably not.)

Dem Favored    

MD (Senator O’Malley in the future perhaps? Maybe the cabinet?)

NY (I suspect Paladino may well cost the GOP some House seats.)

AR (Beebe bucks the tide quite easily.)

Rep Favored

NV (One Reid was quite enough already.)

MI (Figure that Bernero may out perform the polls a little but still won’t get close.)

AZ (Hating Brown people saves Brewer her job.)

OK (Nobody really ever expected to be even remotely competitive here did they?)

IA (Culver may well have lost to any Republican. He never had a chance agianst Branstad.)

TN (There are many worse people than Haslam that could be winning this for Republicans.)

KS (I do wonder if this would have been competitive in a better year. Parkinson may even have had an outside shot this year.)

AL (Sparksmania didn’t quite materialize.)

ID (Otter polls surprisingly weak once again but that hardly matters up here.)

AK (Ethan Berkowitz meet Tony Knowles. You have much in common.)

WY safely in the GOP column.

Final Projection

SENATE – GOP +8

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

Bonus Projection

HOUSE – GOP +46-51

Monday Poll Dump

Get ready for the mother of all poll dumps:

AK-Sen, Gov PPP:  Joe Miller (R) 37%, Scott McAdams (D) 30%, Lisa Murkowski (WI) 30%; Sean Parnell (R-inc) 54%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 43%

AR-Gov Rasmussen: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 60%, Jim Keet (R) 38%

AR-Sen Rasmussen: John Boozman (R) 55%, Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 36%

AZ-Gov Rasmussen: Jan Brewer (R-inc) 53%, Terry Goddard (D) 39%

CA-Sen, Gov PPP: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 50%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

CA-Sen, Gov SurveyUSA: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 46%, Carly Fiorina (R) 38%; Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (D) 37%

CA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (D) 41%

CO-Sen Marist: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%

CO-Sen, Gov PPP: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 48%, Tom Tancredo (C) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 8%

CO-Sen, Gov YouGov: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 49%, Ken Buck (R) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tom Tancredo (C) 40%, Dan Maes (R) 9%

CT-Sen, Gov PPP: Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Tom Foley (R) 49%, Dan Malloy (D) 47%

CT-Sen, Gov Qpac: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 44%; Tom Foley (R) 48%, Dan Malloy (D) 45%

CT-Sen Rasmussen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 46%

CT-Gov Rasmussen : Tom Foley (D) 48%, Dan Malloy (R) 46%

CT-Sen, Gov YouGov: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Dan Malloy (D) 48%, Tom Foley (R) 44%

FL-Gov, Sen PPP: Alex Sink (D) 48%, Rick Scott (R) 47%; Marco Rubio (R) 47%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 21%

FL-Gov, Sen Quinnipiac: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 43%; Marco Rubio (R) 45%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 18%

FL-Sen Rasmussen: Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 16%

FL-Gov, Sen Susquehanna for Sunshine St. News: Alex Sink (D) 49%, Rick Scott (R) 46%; Marco Rubio (R) 48%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 20%

FL-Gov Univ. of S. Florida for NYT: Rick Scott (R) 44%, Alex Sink (D) 39%

FL-Gov, Sen YouGov: Alex Sink (D) 45%, Rick Scott (R) 45%; Marco Rubio (R) 46%, Charlie Crist (I) 34%, Kendrick Meek (D) 15%

GA-Gov Mason-Dixon: Nathan Deal (R) 47%, Roy Barnes (D) 40%, John Monds (L) 6%

IA-Sen, Gov Selzer for Des Moines Register: Terry Branstad (R) 50%, Chet Culver (D-inc) 38%; Charles Grassley (R) 61%, Roxanne Conlin (D) 30%

IL-Sen Anzalone-Liszt for DSCC: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 39%, Mark Kirk (R) 37%

IL-Sen, Gov PPP: Mark Kirk (R) 46%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%; Bill Brady (R) 45%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

IL-Sen, Gov YouGov: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 47%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%; Bill Brady (R) 47%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

KY-Sen PPP: Rand Paul (R) 55%, Jack Conway (D) 40%

KY-Sen YouGov: Rand Paul (R) 52%, Jack Conway (D) 44%

MA-Gov WNEC: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 42%, Charlie Baker (R) 37%, Tim Cahill (I) 11%

ME-Gov MPRC for Down East: Paul LePage (R) 39%, Eliot Cutler (I) 29%, Libby Mitchell (D) 24%

ME-01 Critical Insights for Maine Today Media: Dean Scontras (R) 45%, Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 41%

MN-Gov PPP: Mark Dayton (D) 43%, Tom Emmer (R) 40%, Tom Horner (I) 15%

MO-Sen YouGov: Roy Blunt (R) 54%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%

NH-Sen, Gov PPP: Kelly Ayotte (R) 56%, Paul Hodes (D) 41%; John Lynch (D-inc) 53%, John Stephen (R) 44%

NH-Gov Rasmussen: John Lynch (D-inc) 51%, John Stephen (R) 45%

NH-01, 02 UNH: Frank Guinta (R) 46%, Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc) 39%; Ann McLane Kuster (D) 43%, Charlie Bass (R) 40%

NM-Gov ABQ Journal: Susana Martinez (R) 52%, Diane Denish (D) 42%

NV-Gov Mason-Dixon: Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 35%

NV-03 Mason Dixon: Joe Heck (R) 53%, Dina Titus (D-inc) 43%

NV-Sen, Gov PPP: Sharron Angle (R) 47%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Scott Ashjian (T) 3%; Brian Sandoval (R) 55%, Rory Reid (D) 44%

NV-Sen, Gov YouGov: Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%; Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 40%

NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov Siena: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 37%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 64%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov SurveyUSA: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 56%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 36%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 62%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov YouGov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 56%, Carl Paladino (R) 29%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 58%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 34%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 60%, Jay Townsend (R) 34%

OH-Sen, Gov Columbus Dispatch (mail-in): John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 47%; Rob Portman (R)56%, Lee Fisher (D) 40%

OH-Sen, Gov PPP: John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

OH-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: John Kasich (R) 47%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 46%; Rob Portman (R) 56%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%

OH-Sen Rasmussen: Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 33%

OH-Sen, Gov Univ. of Cincinnati: John Kasich (R) 52%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 60%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

OH-Sen, Gov YouGov: John Kasich (R) 48%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%; Rob Portman (R) 52%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

PA-Sen Marist: Pat Toomey (R) 52%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%

PA-Sen, Gov Muhlenberg: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

PA-Sen, Gov PPP: Pat Toomey (R) 51%, Joe Sestak (D) 46%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 45%

PA-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: Pat Toomey (R) 50%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

PA-Gov Rasmussen: Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 43%

PA-Sen, Gov Susquehanna for Tribune-Review: Pat Toomey (R) 46%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 48%, Dan Onorato (D) 41%

PA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 51%, Dan Onorato (D) 40%

UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Mason-Dixon: Gary Herbert (R-inc) 59%, Peter Coroon (D) 32%; Mike Lee (R) 48%, Sam Granato (D) 32%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 48%, Morgan Philpot (R) 35%

UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Dan Jones (for Deseret News): Gary Herbert (R-inc) 63%, Peter Coroon (D) 29%; Mike Lee (R) 57%, Sam Granato (D) 30%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 51%, Morgan Philpot (R) 39%

VA-05 POS for Robert Hurt: Robert Hurt (R) 45%, Tom Perriello (D) 42%

VT-Gov Rasmussen: Peter Shumlin (D) 50%, Brian Dubie (R) 45%

WA-Sen Fox/Pulse: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

WA-Sen Marist: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

WA-Sen PPP: Dino Rossi (R) 50%, Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%

WA-Sen YouGov: Patty Murray (D-inc) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

WI-Sen Marist: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 45%

WI-Sen, Gov YouGov: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%; Scott Walker (R) 53%, Tom Barrett (D) 43%

WV-Sen PPP: Joe Manchin (D) 51%, John Raese (R) 46%

WV-Sen Rasmussen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 46%

SSP Daily Digest: 10/28 (Afternoon Edition)

CO-Sen: In case there was any doubt about where Ken Buck is on abortion, new video has come out from June that he’s not only against Roe v. Wade, but against the whole concept of a right of privacy (on the usual teabagger grounds that it wasn’t explicitly laid out in the Constitution).

PA-Sen: Although there will be a Barack Obama appearance in Philly proper this weekend, Bill Clinton is left with the task of headlining rallies around the rest of the state. Today Clinton appears on Joe Sestak’s behalf in the Philly suburbs, in Bryn Mawr and Cheyney. Clinton also appears with Dan Onorato and John Callahan in Bethlehem today.

WV-Sen: Good news for John Raese on two different fronts. The Palm Beach architecture commission approved his plans to replace a “giant dollhouse” in the yard of his Palm Beach mansion with a glass conservatory! (Just be sure to hide all the blunt objects when Colonel Mustard comes over for a visit.) Also, it turns out he’s a +13 handicap, occasionally getting down into the high 70s, so he’s definitely got some game on the links. (Unfortunately for Raese, the reason we know this is because somebody leaked his self-reported scorecards from the golf ladder at the Everglades Club, the all-white country club in Palm Beach about which he’s stonewalled on inquiries on whether he’s a member or not.)

HI-Gov: Credit Mufi Hannemann for good sportsmanship. In response to evidence that his supporters from the primary (who tended to skew socially conservative) were tending to break toward Duke Aiona, Hannemann recently cut a TV ad urging his backers to vote for Neil Abercrombie. The ad’s part of a $200K buy by Hawaii labor unions.

AZ-03: It’s sounding like that PPP poll that gave him a lead wasn’t a total fluke. Whatever Jon Hulburd is seeing is enough to get him to open up his personal checkbook and hand his campaign another $250K for a final push. No specific numbers are available, but the article says that his internal polling sees him “within the margin of error.” (That’s not usually the phrasing of someone who’s leading in his internals, but maybe he still can gut it out.)

NC-11: A handful of Democrats in tough races have said that they’d rather vote for someone other than Nancy Pelosi for Speaker, but no one has actually stepped forward until now to volunteer himself as a receptacle for Blue Dog votes. Heath Shuler, previously declared as one of the “no” votes, said he’ll do it if no one else will. There’s not telling how this gambit would work out if the Dems keep the House, or if he’ll be running for minority leader if not.

Passages: Condolences to the friends and family of Owen Pickett, the former long-time Democratic Rep. from VA-02. Pickett, who was 80, served there from 1987 to 2001.

SSP TV:

CT-Sen: Linda McMahon’s closing argument is an endorsement from her daughter, celebrexecutive (that should be a word, if it isn’t) Stephanie

LA-Sen: Assuming Charlie Melancon loses, still give him credit for using all the material at his disposal: his TV spot hits David Vitter as hard as possible, saying his taxpayer-paid salary paid for prostitutes and it’s a “sin” he represents Louisiana at all

WV-Sen: Credit to Joe Manchin, too, for not Coakleying this one up; once he found himself in an unexpected close race, he buckled down, found messages that worked, and hammered on them, as in his final ad

FL-22: Ron Klein goes positive with his last spot, touting endorsements from a variety of citizen groups

NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster’s ad is a combo platter of hitting Charlie Bass on his Wall Street ways and going positive on her own job creation plans

Rasmussen:

CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 44%, Ken Buck (R) 48%

FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 45%, Rick Scott (R) 48%

GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 29%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 59%

ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 26%, Paul LePage (R) 40%, Eliot Cutler (I) 26%

OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 44%, John Kasich (R) 48%

WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 47%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

(um, do you really want that to be your final answer on WA-Sen?)

SSP Daily Digest: 10/27 (Afternoon Edition)

AK-Sen: As is often the case, Alaska dominates our headlines today. Perhaps biggest in its implications is a hot-off-the-grill ruling from a judge that says that the state can’t provide a list of possible write-in candidates for people in the voting booth. Obviously, that hurts the cumbersome-named Lisa Mukrosky Morkoski Gibr Murkowski. Also, in the good news (well, maybe not, considering how far her star has fallen in-state) column for Joe Miller: Sarah Palin will be returning to the Last Frontier to stump for him tomorrow.

On the bad news front for Miller, though, first, he had to shout “I LIE!” yet again. That’s a confession from his own work e-mails, over his now-well-known reprimand for hijacking (and covering up his tracks) of co-workers’ computers to rig a local Republican online straw poll. That’s at the core of his Fairbanks personnel files, released last evening after he declined to appeal their release to the state supreme court. On top of that, now the Army is investigating his use of its soldiers from Fort Richardson to act as his personal paramilitary force during their off-hours; in addition to rules prohibiting active military members from involvement in political campaigns, it’s unclear whether they had their commander’s permission to seek outside employment.

CA-Sen: Here’s some good news; Carly Fiorina bounced back quickly from her hospitalization yesterday for an infection associated with her breast cancer recovery, and left the hospital today. She’ll be back on the trail tomorrow, says her campaign.

CO-Sen: Would you believe this is the biggest-money Senate race anywhere in the country? It is, if you go by outside group expenditures. 27 different IE groups have spent nearly $25 million in Colorado, with the NRSC leading the way. (Nevada will still probably wind up the most expensive overall, factoring in the candidates’ own accounts.) Meanwhile Ken Buck is in the news for two other reasons, first, his questioning of the separation of the church and state… handled more elegantly than Christine O’Donnell’s palm-to-forehead method, but still probably a liability as he seeks to downplay his extremism. And also, he’s now agnostic on whether he’ll support Mitch McConnell for GOP leader (Buck, of course, owes Jim DeMint big-time for getting him as far as he’s gotten).

WV-Sen: Wow, this stuff literally writes itself. John Raese, under fire from Joe Manchin and the DSCC for his Florida mansion (and, for all practical purposes, residency), is now going to have to put some spin on this. The current item on the agenda for the Palm Beach planning commission: approval for Raese to replace a six-by-eight-foot “giant dollhouse” on his property with a fourteen-by-fifteen-foot “glass conservatory,” perfect for those real-life Clue re-enactments. I know that’s a problem that most West Virginians grapple with on a day-to-day basis.

AZ-Gov: Now here’s an October Surprise that’s pushing the envelope (close to a November Surprise). Old documents reveal that Jan Brewer, a state Senator at the time, was involved in a 1988 auto accident where she was suspected at the time of driving under the influence. While she was immune from arrest at the time because the legislature was in session, it’s not clear why the case wasn’t pursued after that.

MS-04: This might provide a small boost (dozens of votes?) to Gene Taylor: the Republican who lost the primary to state Rep. Steven Palazzo threw his backing to Taylor. Joe Tegerdine, interestingly, was the Tea Party candidate in the GOP race (with Palazzo the establishment pick), and finished with 43% of the vote; Tegerdine seemed to frame his decision very much in terms of pissing off the Republican establishment, in fact.

Dark Money: If you look at only one link today, it should be this one, where a picture is worth way more than 1,000 words. It shows the octopus tentacles linking all the various shadowy outside groups that have poured in hundreds of millions of undisclosed dollars, and how they all kind of link back to Republican leadership. It’s almost worthy of Glenn Beck’s blackboard (well, if it had Woodrow Wilson and Diego Rivera on there somewhere).

DNC: To quote Don Brodka, “if I wanted smoke blown up my ass, I’d be at home with a pack of cigarettes and short length of hose.” Nevertheless, the DNC is out with a memo today showing in various ways how the Republican wave hasn’t materialized, at least not in the form of early voting patterns so far, that’s worth a look-see (especially the graphs).

SSP TV:

CO-Sen: The DSCC has two spots in Colorado, both with citizens reciting the litany of why they can’t vote for Ken Buck

IL-Sen: The DSCC links Mark Kirk to George W. Bush, while Alexi Giannoulias trots out the Obamas in his own ad

MO-Sen: I seriously can’t summon up anything interesting to say about the last ads from Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan; it’s been that sort of race

NV-Sen: The DSCC finishes in Nevada by pointing out how Sharron Angle consistently brings teh crazy

PA-Sen: The DSCC hits Pat Toomey on outsourcing yet again, while Pat Toomey goes blandly autobiographical for his closing spot

WA-Sen: The DSCC’s parting shot is to hit Dino Rossi over his web of connections to unsavory real estate and lending partners

WI-Sen: Both candidates close by ragging on each other; Ron Johnson hits Russ Feingold for only being fake “mavericky,” while Feingold asks why Johnson is being so vague and cagey about his agenda

WV-Sen: The DSCC’s newest ad hits John Raese on the Florida residency issue yet again

ND-AL: This may be the most interesting ad of the day: Earl Pomeroy faces the camera and says “I’m not Nancy Pelosi, and I’m not Barack Obama” (yeah, that’s pretty evident by looking at you); he pivots off people’s anger to say they’ll be even angrier, though, if Republicans go against the farm bill, Social Security, and so on

WA-08: Suzan DelBene’s last ad beats the ‘change’ drum, and focuses on the Seattle Times endorsement again

Rasmussen:

IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, Mark Kirk (R) 46%, LeAlan Jones (G) 5%

MD-Sen: Barb Mikulski (D-inc) 56%, Eric Wargotz (R) 38%

NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 35%, Brian Sandoval (R) 58%

OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 46%, Chris Dudley (R) 49%

WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 42%, Scott Walker (R) 52%

WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 49%, John Raese (R) 46%

(ooops, time for Scotty to get in line with everyone else on this one!)

SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Afternoon Edition)

CA-Sen: Best wishes to Carly Fiorina, who’s temporarily off the campaign trail and in the hospital after an infection associated with reconstructive surgery that she had over the summer after recovering from breast cancer. She’s says she’ll be back in action soon.

CO-Sen: The Democrats in Colorado have filed an FEC complaint with Ken Buck, alleging illegal coordination. The coordination was between Buck and Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund (which has spent $370K here so far). This doesn’t look likely to get addressed before Election Day, though.

KY-Sen: Rand Paul eventually got around, today, to cutting ties with and condemning a volunteer involved in assaulting a MoveOn activist before last night’s debate, outside the venue. An activist trying to give a fake award to Paul was shoved to the ground and kicked/trampled.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle has always been the prime example of the GOP’s apparent strategy for its more troublesome candidates (which is to have them hide from the media), but this is a little extreme: all manner of sleight-of-hand was used at a Reno appearance to keep her away from about 40 reporters who were looking for her, to the extent of using a decoy to get into her official vehicle while she left through a side door. Also, here’s an interesting catch, especially since Angle supposedly has a lot of cash these days: her latest filing has nothing about salaries for her staff. Oversight, or is there more of a burn rate problem than we’d been led to believe?

WA-Sen: This CQ article is your generic this-race-is-tight-and-important piece, but it has a few interesting tidbits buried in it: one, Patty Murray’s internals have her up “around 4,” although that’s all we get to find out. And two, this election is already effectively more-than-half over: the state SoS’s office says that 50% of all voters have submitted their ballots, on track for turnout of at least 66%, which would be third-highest non-presidential turnout ever in the state. (I assume you all know which party tends to do better in higher-turnout models.) Finally, Dino Rossi’s doing a little hiding from the media himself: on a conference call with reporters, Rossi actually refused to say where he was calling from, just that he was “traveling all over right now.” (Maybe we should be looking for the guy in the red and white striped shirt?)

VT-Gov: Biden alert! Here’s one election where every single vote will count (seeing as how it has fewer constituents than most House districts), and the veep is trying to roust out some votes with a Burlington appearance with Dem nominee Peter Shumlin the day before the election.

CA-47: This was a weird election even before this, with stark racial overtones, and now it’s even weirder: an independent candidate, Cecilia Iglesias, is making her presence known with a TV ad buy (although just on local cable on Univision). Who will this hurt? The GOP says it’ll hurt Loretta Sanchez, because it splits the Latino vote. The Dems say it’ll hurt Van Tran, since Iglesias is a “known Republican.”

CT-05: Hmm, here’s a novel strategy for dealing with ads from third party groups that contain blatant lies: push back against them, and TV stations just may stop running them. That’s what happened in Connecticut, where the American Action Network’s ads against Chris Murphy got taken down, by Fox-CT (on cable) no less. (The ad is part of the series saying that you can go to jail for not having health insurance.)

VA-05: This is big all around: that the President is stumping on behalf of a House candidate (albeit one within a helicopter ride away from DC), and that said House candidate in a red district is welcoming him. In case you didn’t guess, it’s Tom Perriello, who’ll be rallying UVA students with the Prez in Charlottesville.

American Crossroads: Here’s part of the Crossroads road map for the last week: at a cost of $3 million altogether, they’re moving into NC-11, NY-20, and GA-02, as well as continuing their presence in HI-01 and NY-22. They’re also launching ads in CA-20, IN-02, MO-03, ND-AL, TN-04, OH-16, and TX-23.

SSP TV:

KY-Sen: The NRSC and Rand Paul both turn the tables on Jack Conway, saying he wants to talk about Paul’s checkered past (i.e. Aqua Buddha) to avoid talking about Obama

NV-Sen: The NRSC is out with a rather incoherent ad about how Harry Reid fancies himself a superhero, while Sharron Angle‘s out with another border-themed ad with menacing shadowy men who, of course, aren’t actually Latino

PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s closing argument cites his independence

WV-Sen: Thank God for trackers… Joe Manchin’s camp strings together John Raese’s greatest hits at various appearances to demonstrate his “crazy” ideas

CA-Gov: Jerry Brown wins the jujitsu black belt for his closing ad (if not the overall Zen master award for his whole campaign): unlike the very busy Manchin ad, he only needs one quote from Meg Whitman to make his own case for himself… she says she came to California 30 years ago because it back then it was a land of opportunity and it worked (uh, Meg? who was governor of California 30 years ago?)

GA-Gov: Nathan Deal’s closing ad says Roy Barnes is too ambitious, and Deal is just a humble public servant

TX-Gov: Bill White’s new ad says 10 years is too long, playing the dread “career politician” card on Rick Perry

MA-10: The DCCC’s new ad in the 10th goes after Jeff Perry’s controversial police sergeant tenure, in case anyone there was unaware of it

OH-18: Zack Space goes after Bob Gibbs on outsourcing and immigration

VA-05: The Sierra Club’s out with an ad bolstering Tom Perriello

CA-Init: I’m not sure I thought I’d live to see the day where there ads running in favor of the legalization of marijuana, but apparently the Yes on 19 campaign was able to scrape together enough stems and seeds for a TV buy

Rasmussen Classic:

CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 46%

GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 39%, Nathan Deal (R) 49%, John Monds (L) 5%

NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 42%, Susana Martinez (R) 52%

NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 58 21%, Jim DeMint (R-inc) 21 58%, Some other 15%

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 53%

New Rasmussen (aka Fox/Pulse):

CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%

CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 44%

IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 39%, Bill Brady (R) 44%, Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%

IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Mark Kirk (R) 43%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%

KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 43%, Rand Paul (R) 50%

OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 47%

WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 48%

WV-Sen: Manchin Pulling Away, According to PPP

Public Policy Polling (10/23-24, likely voters, 10/9-10 in parens):

Joe Manchin (D): 50 (48)

John Raese (R): 44 (45)

Undecided: 6 (7)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Here’s some pretty good news out of the Mountain State: PPP’s newest poll of the Senate race has Joe Manchin putting some extra distance between him and John Raese. (PPP, of course, was the first to find Manchin back in the lead, after also being the first to find Manchin trailing. In fact, come to think of it, other than that one PPP poll, the only pollster that’s ever given Raese the lead has been the Rasmussen/Fox axis.)

Manchin remains extremely personally popular (69/23 approval), and the only reason he’s not running away with this is Barack Obama’s horrible 31/65 approval, and GOP leads on generic ballot questions. The reason for his small gain seems to be that he’s even making some inroads among self-identified conservative voters (up to 24% with them, from 17% last time).

In case there were any doubts about what space Manchin would occupy in the next Congress… and just to make sure he keeps making even more inroads with those conservative voters… Manchin’s latest statement to the media has him questioning whether he’d back that wild-eyed liberal Harry Reid for majority leader, or even back Obama for president in ’12. Raese, on the other hand, is in the news for some one-hand-punching-the-government, other-hand-in-the-trough hypocrisy (though nothing quite rising to Ron Johnson levels yet). The Charleston Gazette details how his company, Greer Industries, has racked up $2.4 million in federal contracts and $32 million in state contracts in the last decade.

SSP Daily Digest: 10/25 (Morning Edition)

  • Site News: Holy moly. We just passed ten million all-time visitors yesterday. Wow. Just really have to take a step back for a moment. When I started this site almost exactly seven years ago, I never, ever imagined we’d achieve anything like this. Just a huge thank you to every reader who has checked in since Oct. 19, 2003 to today – and beyond.
  • AR-Gov (Mason-Dixon): Mike Beebe (D-inc) 59, Jim Keet (R) 26
  • CA-Sen, CA-Gov (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner & American Viewpoint for the LA Times/USC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 50, Carly Fiorina (R) 42; Jerry Brown (D) 52, Meg Whitman (R) 39
  • CA-Gov (John McLaughlin & David Hill (R) for Meg Whitman): Jerry Brown (D) 46, Meg Whitman (R) 43
  • CO-Sen, CO-Gov (SurveyUSA for 9News/Denver Post): Michael Bennet (D-inc) 47, Ken Buck (R) 47; John Hickenlooper (D) 46, Dan Maes (R) 15, Tom Tancredo (ACP) 34
  • Bonus: SUSA also tested the state AG, SoS, and Treasurer races.

  • CO-Gov (Magellan): John Hickenlooper (D) 44, Dan Maes (R) 9, Tom Tancredo (ACP) 43
  • FL-Sen, FL-Gov (Ipsos for Florida media): Kendrick Meek (D) 20, Marco Rubio (R) 41, Charlie Crist (I) 26; Alex Sink (D) 41, Rick Scott (R) 44
  • Bonus: Ipsos also tested the AG, Ag Comm’r, and CFO races.

  • FL-Gov (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Alex Sink (D) 45, Rick Scott (R) 45
  • IL-Sen, IL-Gov (Mason-Dixon for St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40, Bill Brady (R) 44; Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41, Mark Kirk (R) 43
  • Note: The poll apparently asked respondents about “Alex Giannoulias.”

  • IL-Sen (Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune): Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41, Mark Kirk (R) 44
  • LA-Sen (Anzalone-Liszt (D) for Charlie Melancon): Charlie Melancon (D) 45, David Vitter (R-inc) 48
  • MA-Gov (Western New England College): Deval Patrick (D-inc) 44, Charlie Baker (R) 36, Tim Cahill (I) 8
  • MA-Gov (UNH): Deval Patrick (D-inc) 43, Charlie Baker (R) 39, Tim Cahill (I) 8
  • MD-Gov (OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun): Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 52, Bob Ehrlich (R) 38
  • ME-Gov (Critical Insights): Libby Mitchell (D) 20, Paul LePage (R) 32, Eliot Cutler 19
  • MN-Gov (Princeton Survey Research for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune): Mark Dayton (D) 41, Tom Emmer (R) 34, Tom Horner (I) 13
  • MO-Sen (Mason-Dixon for St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV): Robin Carnahan (D) 40, Roy Blunt (R) 49
  • NY-Gov (Marist): Andrew Cuomo (D) 60, Carl Paladino (R) 37
  • PA-Gov (Quinnipiac): Dan Onorato (D) 44, Tom Corbett (R) 49
  • WV-Sen (Global Strategy Group (D) for Joe Manchin): Joe Manchin (D) 48, John Raese (R) 43
  • Margins & Errors: On Sunday, Pat Toomey moved out to a 3-point lead in the Muhlenberg tracker, while Tom Corbett is +9… some sketchy details of IN-02 internals from Brian Howey: “Howard County Republican Chairman Craig Dunn said internal polling has shown Walorski chipping a 9-point Donnelly lead to “at the margin of error” around 4 percent.” … CNN sources tell them that Harry Reid’s internals have him up 6 over Sharron Angle in NV-Sen… PPP will have polls out for CA, CO, KY & WV this week

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Afternoon Edition)

    AK-Sen: Congrats to Scott McAdams, who just cleared the McMillion hurdle with $1 million in fundraising so far. The majority of contributions were from Alaska, with 88% contributions of $200 or less.

    KY-Sen: Matt Taibbi’s new Rolling Stone article as he works the Rand Paul beat is a must-read even if it doesn’t have any revelations as freaky as the “Aqua Buddha” story, although there’s some vague and anonymous racism from the newsletter that his snarky secret society put out. The prize-winning quote, though, deals with the Tea Partiers don’t seem terribly phased by any of this:

    (“Well, I used to use that cologne myself,” was the response of one Tea Partier to a question I posed about “Aqua Buddha”)

    MO-Sen: American Crossroads has declared victory in Missouri, and is pulling out of advertising there, where Roy Blunt has a consistent but single-digit lead. (As for the actual party committees… well, it’s probably not relevant, seeing as how Crossroads and its ilk have made them basically irrelevant this year.)

    NV-Sen: Harry Reid racked up a couple endorsements from the big-in-Nevada gaming industry, including PokerPAC. He also got the endorsement of the former chair of the RNC, Frank Fahrenkopf, who warned of the threat Sharron Angle (with her ties to anti-gambling Gary Bauer) might pose to the state’s gaming industry.

    PA-Sen: Ah, sweet Schadenfreude. The Club for Growth is having to plug $1 million into the Pennsylvania Senate race in order to bail out their former boss, Pat Toomey.

    WI-Sen: Yet another story with Ron Johnson with his hand in the trough he so regularly decries: he says he’s not quite sure how five of his employees (and 10 dependents) at his plastics firm Pacur wound up on BadgerCare, the state’s health insurance program for the poor. That would seem to contradict previous statements from the Johnson camp that all Pacur full-time employees are covered by the company’s plan.

    AZ-07, AZ-08: I know John McCain has refudiated all his old mavericky ways, but did he actually have to go so far as to violate his signature piece of mavericky legislation, the McCain-Feingold Act? He recently cut spots for GOP candidates in the 7th and 8th, in which he and Jon Kyl appeared, and paid for them out of Friends of John McCain (his campaign committee). Dems have filed FEC complaints against McCain, saying that if he coordinated with the Ruth McClung and Jesse Kelly campaigns, he would’ve been limited to $4,800 contributions to each (they’d be legal independent expenditures if there was truly no coordination).

    CO-03, CO-04: The gang-that-couldn’t-shoot-straight strikes twice, in two different neighboring Old West districts. In the 3rd, an anti-abortion group has been hitting the airwaves attacking Ken Salazar. That’s fine, but Ken Salazar is the Secretary of Interior. His brother (the one with the mustache) is John Salazar, the Rep. from the 3rd. OK, understandable, since they’re brothers… but how do you explain the confusion in the 4th, where not just some outside group but the Cory Gardner campaign mixed up Betsy Markey with Massachusetts Rep. Ed Markey? They accused her of voting for the Obama budget, which she didn’t; that was the other Markey.

    FL-25: I don’t know how far this will get, but give local Dems in south Florida credit for audaciousness. A Joe Garcia backer filed a lawsuit trying to get David Rivera removed from the ballot. The suit alleges that Rivera should be removed because of state election finance disclosure irregularities, concerning Rivera’s mysterious claims of being a contractor to USAID despite USAID saying he wasn’t. While they cite a comparable case where a state senate candidate was recently stricken from the ballot from similar problems, I’m wondering if it may be too late to do anything about that even if it succeeds on the merits (although if it only serves to move the USAID deception into the spotlight, that’s good too).

    MO-04: More triage news… on the Republican side? Despite news of a Vicky Hartzler internal poll yesterday that showed a tied race, the NRCC is packing up, at least from the Kansas City market. I wonder if that has more to do with feeling neighboring KS-03 is locked down, as there are other smaller media markets in the 4th where they might still spend, but I think this has to count as at least a partial pullout.

    SD-AL: This is an interesting counterpoint to the anti-Pelosi (or at least Pelosi-skeptical) tide that seems to be rising among threatened Blue Dogs, including Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (who’s in the skeptic camp): GOP challenger Kristi Noem is saying that if she wins her race, she’s not sold yet on John Boehner as Republican leader, but would like to see who else might run. Recall that Noem previously politely told Sarah Palin to stay far away from her race, so this isn’t the first time she’s pantomimed independence.

    Early voting: There’s been some buzz today about a CBS News story that says that Dems are doing better than expected in early voting, although it’s kind of shy on actual numbers. It mentions that Dems have outpaced GOPers in early voting in Iowa, Maryland, North Carolina, and Clark Co., Nevada, while there’s a Republican edge in Florida and Colorado. Jon Ralston, of course, has more data on Nevada, while Politico has some Iowa tidbits, involving early ballot requests in IA-03 (where 50% of requests are from Dems, but where Dems are 36% of the electorate) and IA-02 (51% of the requests, 38% of the electorate).

    SSP TV:

    CO-Sen: Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund is out with a “high six-figure” buy in Colorado, with the first TV ad to take on Ken Buck’s failure to prosecute that 2005 rape case (the “buyer’s remorse” incident)

    KY-Sen: The DSCC hits Rand Paul on his support for the 23% sales (aka “fair”) tax

    NV-Sen: Sharron Angle wonders how Harry Reid made all that money in her new ad (helpful fact from Jon Ralston: he was a millionaire even before he was in the House)

    WV-Sen: Outsourcing seems to be the hot button issue coming out of focus groups that works for the Dems these days, as the DSCC keeps hitting John Raese on it with their new spot

    AZ-03: Jon Hulburd has another TV ad against Ben Quayle, poking at his values and overall maturity

    HI-01: Colleen Hanabusa’s new ad has a special guest star in the form of Barack Obama

    IN-09: The SEIU goes after Todd Young on Social Security privatization

    NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter, in her own ad, also works the SSP angle against Frank Guinta

    VA-05: Is the DCCC trying to drive up indie teabagger Jeffrey Clark’s numbers? They’re out with a spot hitting Robert Hurt for all the tax-raising he did in the state legislature

    Rasmussen:

    IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 45%, Rich Whit(n)ey (G) 2%, Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6%

    MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 52%

    ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 42%, Rick Berg (R) 52%

    NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 54%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%

    SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 38%, Nikki Haley (R) 47%

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Afternoon Edition)

    AK-Sen: Where even to start in Alaska? With vague reports of Joe Miller in “free fall” in private polling, both the NRSC and his own personal kingmaker, Jim DeMint, are having to step in with advertising in order to back him up. The NRSC’s buy is for $162K, which I’m sure they’d rather spend putting out fires in Pennsylvania and Kentucky instead of on a should-have-been-sure-thing… and the ad (which focuses on Barack Obama, not Lisa Murkowski or Scott McAdams) can be seen here. DeMint’s ad is for $100K and touts Miller’s pro-life credentials.

    Meanwhile, the drip-drip of unsavory stuff from Miller’s past keeps coming. It turns out he worked for one of Alaska’s top law firms after graduating from Yale, prior to sliding down the food chain to working for the borough of Fairbanks; while they wouldn’t elaborate because of personnel policies, a firm partner said they were “not eager” to have him stay on and “relieved” when he left after three years. Also, a CPA with commercial property knowledge should double-check a look at this story before we start alleging wrongdoing, but it’s an interesting catch: Miller may have been paying himself ridiculously-above-market rents on the law office he owned, in order to game his taxes. And finally, with the damage already done, it looks like no charges will be filed in the “irrational blogger” handcuffing incident, either against Tony Hopfinger or Miller’s hired goons.

    KY-Sen: Jack Conway succeeded in getting an NRSC ad pulled from a local TV station, seeing as how the whole premise was based on a lie (that Conway has supported cap-and-trade). WHAS-TV pulled the ad after the NRSC was unable to provide convincing sources for the alleged quotes.

    MO-Sen: This might be too little too late, but Roy Blunt is the third Republican candidate in the last month to get a bad case of housekeeper-itis. State Democrats released documents yesterday showing that in 1990 Blunt hired an “illegal worker” and then tried to expedite the citizenship process for her. Blunt’s campaign says she never worked directly for them, only for some church events, but the documents say she had “done some work” for Blunt’s wife at the time.

    NY-Sen: Charles Schumer, one of the few people anywhere routinely polling over 60%, has decided to dole out more of his gigantic war chest to other Democrats rather than spending it on himself. (It may not be entirely altruistic, as he may still have a Majority Leader battle in mind if Harry Reid can’t pull it out.) In recent weeks, he gave an additional $1 million (on top of a previous $2 mil) to the DSCC. He’s also given widely to state parties, including $250K in both New York and Nevada, as well as smaller amounts in 11 other states.

    PA-Sen: Before you get too excited about the major shift in polling in the Pennsylvania Senate race, absentee ballot numbers out of the Keystone State should be considered a dash of cold water. Of the 127,000 absentee ballots requested, Republicans have requested 50% and Dems have requested 42%, and also returning them at a faster clip. (I’m sure you could parse that by saying that Republican voters are likely to be older and thus less likely to want to vote in person, but either way it’s not an encouraging figure.)

    WV-Sen: Rush Limbaugh’s endorsement of John Raese last week — apparently predicated on the fact that they have lockers near each other at an expensive private country club in Palm Beach, Florida — may have done more damage to Raese beyond the obvious problem of making him look like a rich, entitled carpetbagger. After a little digging, it turns out that the Everglades Club is an all-white affair. Although it doesn’t have specific membership requirements, it’s never had a black member, and only one Jewish member. (In fact, remember that membership in this club was considered one of the disqualifying factors when Limbaugh was making noises about buying the St. Louis Rams several years back.)

    CO-Gov: Credit Dan Maes for entrepreneurial spirit: when he needed a job, he created one for himself… running for Governor. In the last year, Maes’ campaign has reimbursed his family $72K. That’s actually his campaign’s second-biggest expense, and nearly one-third of the paltry $304K he’s raised all along. Maes says much of that money was “mileage,” though.

    OR-Gov: Here’s something that we’ve been seeing almost nothing of this cycle, even though we saw a lot of it in 2008 (especially in Oregon, with Gordon Smith): kissing up to Barack Obama. But that’s what Chris Dudley did in an open letter published as a print ad in the Oregonian this week, saying that while they might have their differences he’ll work together with him on educational issues (one area where Dudley’s been making some Democratic-sounding promises, albeit without any discussion of how to do that and pay for his tax cuts at the same time). With Barack Obama more popular in Oregon than much of the nation, and about to host a large rally with John Kitzhaber, the timing is not surprising.

    MA-04: I don’t know if Barney Frank knows something that his own internals aren’t telling us, or if he just believes in not leaving anything to chance, but he’s lending himself $200K out of his own wallet to fund the stretch run in his mildly-interesting House race.

    MA-10: The illegal strip search issue (where Jeff Perry, then a police sergeant, failed to stop an underling from strip searching two teenage girls) is back in the media spotlight in a big way today, with one of the victims ending her silence and speaking to the press. Perry has defended himself saying it wasn’t “in my presence,” but she says he was a whole 15 feet away, and that he tried to cover up the incident.

    NJ-03: It seems like every day the honor of dumbest person running for office changes, and today the fickle finger seems to be pointing at Jon Runyan. When asked in a debate what Supreme Court case of the last 10 or 15 years he disagrees with, Runyan’s answer was Dred Scott. As TPM’s David Kurtz says, given the crop of GOPers this year, maybe we should just be grateful that he disagrees with Dred Scott.

    VA-05: If Tom Perriello loses this cycle, he’s one guy who can walk out with his head held high:

    In return, Hurt asked Perriello if he was willing to admit his votes on stimulus funding, health care and energy were mistakes.

    Perriello stood behind his votes and the positive impact he says they have had or will have on the district….

    “Leadership is about making tough decisions,” he said.

    IA-St. House: The Iowa state House is one of the most hotly contested (and likeliest to flip to the GOP) chambers in the nation this cycle, and here’s a Des Moines Register analysis of the 23 biggest races to watch in that chamber. (Bear in mind, though, that although Iowa is on track to lose a House seat, it uses independent commission redistricting, so the state legislature is not pivotal in that aspect.)

    DNC: The DNC somehow raised $11.1 million in the first 13 days of October, putting them on track for one of their best months ever for a midterm election. Wondering what’s happening with that money? The DNC is out with a new TV ad of their own, saying don’t go back to failed Republican policies and decrying the flow of outside money into this election. I have no idea where it’s running, but the non-specificness of the pitch leaves me wondering if it’ll run in nationwide contexts. (The DNC is also running $3 million in radio ads on nationally syndicated programs, particularly targeted to black audiences.)

    Independent expenditures:

    • America’s Families First Action Fund (all anti-GOP buys): ND-AL, FL-02, WI-08, VA-05, AZ-07, WI-07

    NRSC (variety of buys, including Alaska)

    • AFSCME (all anti-GOP, naturally): OH-16, MI-07, CO-Sen, PA-03

    Hospital PAC (multiple buys, all pro-GOP)

    First Amendment Alliance (anti-Joe Manchin)

    SSP TV:

    IL-Sen: Someone called WFUPAC (funded by SEIU and AFT) hits Mark Kirk for being buddy-buddy with George W. Bush in the bad ol’ days

    NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte’s out with a boilerplate litany of everything Dems have done wrong

    WV-Sen: The NRSC returns to the “Manchin’s a good governor, keep him here, and send a message to Obama” theme

    MN-01: The DCCC has to push the playing field boundaries a little further with their first ad in the 1st, hitting Randy Demmer on Social Security privatization

    NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster has two different ads out, both on outsourcing and job creation, one hitting Charlie Bass and one positive

    PA-03: Here’s that AFSCME ad (see above for the IE) hitting Mike Kelly

    PA-06: Manan Trivedi says Washington hasn’t been listening to you

    WA-08: Suzan DelBene’s fourth ad touts her as “smart moderate” and wields her Seattle Times endorsement

    Rasmussen:

    FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 50%

    FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 20%, Marco Rubio (R) 43%, Charlie Crist (I) 32%

    IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

    WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 43%, John Raese (R) 50%