Tag: 2010

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

So CQ Politics has the scoop that John Cornyn will be the next head of the NRSC. Sure has big shoes to fill after Liddy Dole and John Ensign’s sterling performances – if he only hemorrhages 5 seats it’ll be a major coup for the GOP.

This move shouldn’t come as a surprise as the two names previously mentioned for the seat were Cornyn and Norm Coleman, and Coleman’s too busy gaming the recount in Minnesota to focus on recruiting and fundraising for candidates across the nation quite yet.

John Ensign was quoted by the Politico in July:

They both would be very strong candidates,” Ensign said. “Cornyn brings Texas, but Coleman brings a national fundraising list and the Jewish fundraising base. They’ll both be good candidates.

http://www.politico.com/news/s…

Disregarding his Tommy Thompsonesque gaffe assuming Jewish people are inherently wealthy… it’s clear that the Republican Party would have liked to expand its fundraising base and electoral appeal beyond the South. You know, to actually combat the meme that they’re precipitously becoming a regional party?

But instead they get Cornyn, a Texan, Bush’s #1 lackey in the senate. Correct me if I’m wrong, but he’s never seemed like the most politically savvy guy in their caucus.

Quite auspiciously for us, this follows the news that Pete Sessions (R-TX) is Boehner’s pick to chair the NRCC. There’s only so much milkshake in Texas to go around, and it looks like the campaign wings of the GOP are going to be fighting over it, exhausting each other’s resources.

So, looking forward to 2010, it’s hard to predict what headwinds or tail winds the national mood will throw our candidates. But the way things look, we have reason to be hopeful that we at least won’t be outmaneuvered or out-fundraised.

http://online.wsj.com/article/…

Now he has a point that 2010 is likely to be better for Republicans but even if they get the average 23 seat net gain in the House that barely gets them back above 200 seats, if that.

Also, on reapportionment. Same old conservative spin that Michael Barone parrots in the latest Almanac – red states will gain House seats thus more electoral votes after the 2010 census. Problem for the GOP is that Florida is now a blue state and Arizona should be ripe for going to Obama in 2012 without McCain on the ticket. I also believe North Carolina is due to pick up at least one more seat which supports the idea that as states increase in population they become more open to Democrats due to urban growth.

Hi everyone!  My name is James and I am interested in running for Congress.

Why?  Well, I think every American has a right to run for Congress, regardless of their social class or economic class.

I am a Democrat from a centre-right district.  My congressman, Paul Kanjorski, is in the political battle of his life.  This one’s gonna be a nailbiter, folks.

If Lou Barletta wins, I think the Democrats need to field a strong candidate in 2010.  If nobody’s gonna run, I think I’ll give it a try.

There’s a few problems for me though:

1. I’m 23.  I will be 25 by Election Day 2010 and therefore meet the age requirement to serve in Congress in January of 2011.

2. I’m gay.  That one kinda speaks for itself.  This district has no gay base to speak of.  Remember: This is Scranton, not San Francisco.

3. I have never held elective office before.  Now I know it’s not a requirement one does, and really this year inexperience is all the rage.  Let’s be honest, folks, even if I had a Harvard degree in law and served 8 years in the State Legislature, I could still lose and lose badly.

These are the issues that I plan to read up about and talk about in the campaign:

1. Border and Port Security- The cargo on the ships coming to the United States is not properly investigated.  That whole fiasco with the ports being owned by Saudi Arabia a few years back?  Let’s bring it up again.  And we need to secure the borders.  Lou Dobbs is right.

2. National Security- The President of Iran is a nutjob.  He wants to wipe Israel off the map.  We cannot let that happen.  I’m very pro-Israel.

3. Law and Order- It’s time to do what Nixon did in ’68 that won him the election.  There’s a lot of crime out here, a lot of thugs and criminals, there’s school gangs now.  It’s time to crack down on crime.  We need more cops on the street and harsher penalties for those who try to hurt innocent people.

4. Social Security- A BIG ISSUE for a Democrat running in Pennsylvania.  It’s time for the people in Washington to be straight with the American people.  Is it going to last for my generation or not?  If not, then let’s start thinking of new ideas NOW.  The Trust Fund has been ROBBED.  The Bush tax cuts stole money from the middle class to give to the upper crust elites.  That money could have been used to make Social Security solvent.

5. Veterans – There’s Vietnam veterans sleeping under the bridge out here by Walmart and I’m disgusted at the treatment they have received.  They are still suffering from post traumatic stress and therefore aren’t able to readjust well to civilian life.  They sacrificed their lives for us.  Now it’s up to us to take care of them.  I will bring up this issue because somebody’s got to talk about it.

I need to form the Clinton Coalition again.  Mrs. Clinton was popular here because she took the words right out of our mouths and said the things we were feeling about feeling invisible.  I always thought Barack was more of a Starbucks kind of Democrat.  I’m reluctantly supporting him.  I would have preferred Hill.

Elitism is very much hated out here.  

To win here, a Democrat needs to get “the Walmart voter” and convince them that their economic interests are best served by the Democrats than the Republicans.

I’m going to need some help here, and I’m asking you all now to offer some advice for me.  So reply back to me!

I've mentioned this before, but we have a good opportunity to create a filibuster-proof majority by the end of the 2010 senate elections. In order to take advantage of this we need to look at making sure that we exploit every last possibly competitive seat this cycle and the next one.

 

 First of all, this is my estimation of what the competitiveness of the 2010 senate cycle is going to look like:

(Held by Democrats)

(Likely competitive)

 

• Salazaar (Colorado)

(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])

 

• Lincoln (Arkansas)
• Boxer (California)
• Inouye (Hawaii)

(Held by Republicans)

 

(Likely competitive)

 

• Bunning (Kentucky)
• Specter (Pennsylvania)
• Burr (North Carolina)/
• McCain (Arizona)

 (Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])

 

• Coburn (Oklahoma)
• Bond (Missouri)
• Voinovich (Ohio)
• Kansas open seat (Brownback)
• DeMint (South Carolina)

 

Now, this is a preliminary look at the 2010 map, and I'm certain there is going to be some disagreement as to the specifics, but 2010 is probably going be another year with a field that the Democrats can take advantage of (since the Republicans have already take most of the southern seats up in 2004, they have no real pool for picking up seats in 2010). Assuming we can win 5 seats in 2008, we'd have to pick up at least 4 more in 2010 in order to get that filibuster-proof majority we want (let''s face it, even in the best-case scenario, we're not getting a filibuster-proof majority in 2008).

That's the good news, the bad news is in 2012, where the map is stacked very heavily against us. There are going to be 24 Democrats up for re-election in 2012 compared to only 9 Republicans (ok, fine 22 Democrats 2 independents, one of which could conceivably turn in that time period). Here's the estimation for 2012:

 

(Held by Democrats)

 

(Likely competitive)

 

• Tester (Montana)
• McCaskill (Missouri)
• Webb (Virginia)
• Byrd (West Virginia) *assumes retirement*

(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])

 

• Casey (Pennsylvania)
• Brown (Ohio)
• Klobuchar (Minnesota)
• Akaka (Hawaii)
• Cardin (Maryland)
• Kennedy (Massachusetts) *assumes retirement*
• Bingaman (New Mexico)

(Held by Republicans)

(Likely competitive)

 

• N/A (subject to change due to open seats)

(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])

 

• Corker (Tennessee)
• Kyl (Arizona)

This is the consequences of winning this many seats in a year that, quite frankly, by the numbers should have favored Republicans in the Senate. 2012 will be a miserable year for us in the Senate, there is no way around that fact, but if we take appropriate measures now, we can have build a large enough buffer that we can not only retain the senate, but we can keep a working majority of at least 55 seats after the Senate elections.

Just how far has John McCain’s stock fallen? According to a recent Rocky Mountain poll, he could face double digit defeat… in 2010. Yeah, even in Arizona, his home state, his popularity is less than 50%. The Rocky Mountain poll has popular Governor Janet Napolitano beating him 47% to 36% head-to-head. Napolitano is popular (59%), and could help downticket Democrats with a strong showing. McCain, on the other hand, is tied to an unpopular war, an unpopular immigration bill, and a really lousy attendance record.

Is it any wonder that McCain only leads by 9% in his home state’s GOP presidential primary? I’m glad he’s still in the race, because every dollar he spends is GOP donor money gone splendidly to waste.

(h/t Pollster.com – about 6 days old but I was on vacation and no one else diaried about it)

UPDATE: I guess that’s why McCain’s considering applying for public financing. The 100 million dollars he had planned to raise didn’t come through, so now he’ll probably take 6 million in federal funds just so he retire his debt. Anyone else think he’ll save some of the money he raises from here on out to protect his Senate seat in 2010?

[Napolitano] was ranked as doing an excellent or good job by 59 percent of those asked, and only nine percent gave her a poor or very poor rating.

The poll found that 76 percent of Democrats think she’s doing an excellent or good job, while 51 percent of independents and 41 percent of Republicans give her that ranking.

In a hypothetical head-to-head race for McCain’s Senate seat, 47 percent of those polled would vote for Napolitano, 36 percent for the sitting Republican senator, and 17 percent were undecided.

The poll, conducted by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona, was conducted between July 27 and Aug. 4 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.

Credit: AP, Aug. 21, 2007