Swing State Project

Cross posted at http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more election analysis.

These are my 2nd Senate rankings this year. The first series is here http://swingstateproject.com/d…

Welcome to the Dog Days of August everyone.  Although this is definitely a Republican year (at least for the House of Representatives,) Republicans may be picking up less seats in the Senate than they hoped. In my opinion, the chance of the Republicans picking up the Senate is an absolute no no. It is not because they will not steal ten seats from the Democrats, it is because Democrats may obtain some seats previously held by Republicans. The rhetoric this year is anti incumbent. For some places though, it is just anti Democratic Party (or Democrat party as conservatives will say.) For example, Delaware is looking to elect Michael Castle (R) who has served as Governor and U.S House Representative in Delaware for a very long time.

Also, Republicans are losing chances for pickups due to strong Democratic candidates or Republican candidate imploding. Nevada is the most famous example with Sharron Angle. First she thought we should get rid of social security and the Department of Education. She will not stop making gaffes either. She said she will only take questions from people who like her. Even on Fox News, she faced some trouble answering their questions. Another example of Republicans falling into problems is the Colorado Senate race. Ken Buck (R) has gone to the right to beat Jane Norton (R) as he says women do not have the right to an abortion even in cases of rape and incest. In a state that rejected a measure by 46 points to “define life from the moment of conception,” these views should not play too well. Also, many of the Democratic candidates are good campaigners but have managed to close gaps or take leads because campaign season has not started yet. If you are looking for a race where a Democrat has a shot at making it close due to campaign skills, look at races like Indiana or Delaware. I expect Republicans to win those races but if the Democrats make them close, do not be surprised. Unfortunately though, this may change as Obama’s approval ratings seem to be slipping. This could affect the Senate races and this is a pretty optimistic diary, I am aware of that.

Now off to the rankings:

1. North Dakota OPEN Byron Dorgan (D)

North Dakota is known for electing candidates who are well known to voters like Democrats Kent Conrad, Earl Pomeroy and Byron Dorgan. Apparently, this applies even more strongly to Republican Governors who are named John Hoeven who are running for Senate in 2010.

Ranking: Safe Republican

2. Arkansas Blanche Lincoln (D)

Blanche Lincoln held off the unions (which were never powerful in Arkansas,) the progressives and Bill Halter (D) when she won the Democratic primary with the help of Bill Clinton. Rep John Boozmen (R) from the northwest portion of the state (where Wal Mart was started) is running. All indications clearly show that Boozmen is ahead by double digits. Barring a major gaffe or a big burst of luck, Boozmen will be Arkansas’s next Senator.

Ranking: Likely Republican

3. Florida OPEN George LeMieux (R)

Mel Martinez (R) resigned so then popular Governor Charlie Crist (R) appointed LeMieux to hold Martinez’s Senate seat. Now Crist wants the seat so he ran for it. Unfortunately, he learned that saying something positive about Obama’s stimulus is suicide for a Republican stimulus. Marco Rubio (R) ran as the teabagger and kicked Crist out of the primary. At the beginning of the race though, a poll showed Rubio down by 53 points. Now Crist is running as an independent and most polls show him ahead of Rubio by the mid single digits. The Democratic primary is a big circus too. Kendrick Meek (D) from Miami is running against Jeff Greene, a corrupt billionaire. As Meek’s chance of winning shrinks, many Democrats like me are switching to Crist because he may decide to caucus with the Democrats. The race might get closer but expect Crist to win.

Ranking: Lean Independent

4. Delaware OPEN Ted Kaufman (D)

At first, this seat looked like an easy hold for the Democrats. Beau Biden, Joe Biden’s son would run and that would be that. When popular Rep. Michael Castle (R) decided to run, Beau Biden decided not to. Now Democrats nominated New Castle County (Wilmington) executive, Chris Coons (D) to run for Senate. It should be noted that New Castle County is a bellwether in Presidential so Coons already has an advantage. Michael Castle though is a moderate and is well known throughout the state but if people get fed up with all the incumbents…Still, expect a Michael Castle win.

Ranking: Lean Republican

5. Indiana OPEN Evan Bayh (D)

Bye Bayh, after being a popular Governor and Senator, Bayh left open a seat the Democrats should have held. Dan Coats (R) is a former Republican Senator and lobbyist who won the primary with only 40% of the vote. He faces Brad Ellsworth (D), the moderate and popular Congressman from southern Indiana, filled with rural swing voters. Although Ellsworth is moderate and should do well with rural voters, Dan Coats has a strong lead. Ellsworth just got out an effective ad attacking lobbyists (not explicitly mentioning the one running against him.) This is helpful but he also needs to appeal to urban voters who were key to Obama’s winning coalition in 2008. If Ellsworth does not start closing the gap in September when voters get to know him, then he is toast.

Ranking: Lean Republican

6. Ohio OPEN George Voinovich (R)

Voinovich is another reasonable Republican who is retiring. After a bruising primary against Jennifer Brunner (D), Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (D) won. He is facing Rob Portman (R) who is a former congressman and official during the Bush Administration. Almost every poll since March that is not Rasmussen shows Fisher with a lead although most of the leads are by a few points. Fisher’s main jobs will be to tie Portman to Bush, remind people how bad Bush was (because everyone is blaming Bush’s problems on Obama) and Fisher should highlight how he will create jobs. Also, Fisher needs to step up the fundraising. Also, Portman is from southern Ohio while Fisher is from Northeast Ohio. In many races, I believe it will get better once the Democrat starts campaigning. In this race though, Portman will be able to spend his money but the unions will be able to help Fisher due to their power here. On election night, you should expect a map similar to 2004 except Fisher may get a few Ohio river counties. I still believe that if one race leads to a recount, it will be this one.

Ranking: Toss Up

7. Pennsylvania OPEN Arlen Specter (D)

This race is another shape shifter that finally seems to have settled. First, Specter was a Republican who would face a primary against closeted conservative Pat Toomey (R) from Allentown. Specter switched parties and got another primary challenge, this time from Joe Sestak (D) from Delaware County. Specter lost the primary and gave a not so stirring concession speech. Sestak however was excited and energetic in his speech. He should be able to transfer that energy into the general election campaign. The issue is that Toomey is running to the center so he does not get Santorumed for being too conservative. Being more of an economic conservative, Toomey should have a shot at picking up suburban Philadelphia voters which Democrats must have to win in Pennsylvania. There is just one little problem: Sestak’s base is in suburban Philadelphia. This is one of those races that will be very close and to win, Sestak must hold on to the suburbs.

Ranking: Toss Up

8. Colorado Michael Bennett (D)

Bennett is facing a tough primary from the not so stellar fundraiser Andrew Romanoff (D). At first, I thought this was a race the Republicans would eventually win. Then like Virginia 2006, Montana 2006 and Nevada 2010, the Republicans made some mistakes. Ken Buck (R) is facing Jane Norton (R) in the primary. He called birthers (in case you do not know, birthers are people who believe Obama was not born in this country even if a newspaper announces Obama’s birth in Honolulu, Hawaii when Obama was born) dumba*ses which should play well in the general election (but not in the primary.) Also, the Governor’s race has imploded for the Republicans too. Tom Tancredo (R) is running as an Independent because Scott McInnis (R) plagiarized and this should split the Republican vote. The implosion may spread to the Senate race too so stand by for further developments.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

9. Missouri OPEN Christopher Bond (R)

In a year like 2006 or 2008, this seat would be an easy pickup for the Democrats. Even in a neutral year, the Democrats would probably win this seat. The Democrats nominated Robin Carnahan (D), Missouri’s Secretary of State who won by 26 points in 2008 (she also received the largest number of votes for a candidate in Missouri history.) She did well in rural areas in that election and she has rural roots. If a Democrat wants to win in Missouri, he/she must keep down Republican margins in rural areas so urban areas allow Democrats to pull through in Missouri. Also, Carnahan is a good campaigner so it appears she is the best candidate the Democrats can find. She is the best candidate but the Republicans nominated Roy Blunt from conservative southwest Missouri. Yes, the Roy Blunt who was the Majority Whip during the Bush Administration. Most polls though show Blunt leading by a few points and this is probably because of Missouri’s conservative trend. Even Obama did not win the state while winning big in the St. Louis area and doing well near Kansas City too. Also, the recent statewide primary showed high Republican turnout and low Democratic turnout. Although Carnahan should make the race closer once she starts campaigning, this race looks more and more like a Republican hold.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

10. Kentucky OPEN Jim Bunning (R)

I considered taking this race off the list but I have decided to keep it here because the race could shift toward the Democrats quickly (although this seems less and less likely.) After winning a bruising primary against Daniel Mongirado (D), progressive Jack Conway (D) hopes to beat Rand Paul (R) who soundly beat the establishment’s favorite Trey Grayson (R). At first, Paul resembled a gaffe machine by saying he hopes to repeal part of the Civil Rights Act. Kentucky is a conservative state (Obama only won 41% of the vote here) but even here, Conway has been able to make the race close. Paul however has zipped his lips and is not making anymore gaffes. Conway is a strong candidate but he seems to have difficulties winning in the eastern Kentucky coal counties. For a Democrat to win in Kentucky, he/she must do extremely well in eastern Kentucky and carry the 5th Congressional district to offset Republican margins in western Kentucky. Overall, this appears to be just the wrong year for Conway. If Rand Paul makes a few more gaffes though…

Ranking: Lean Republican

Overall, expect Republicans to pick up 3-5 seats in the Senate.  

In the race to replace disgraced ex-Rep. Mark Souder in the House of Representatives, Republican state Sen. Marlin Stutzman is the undisputed front-runner to take control of this conservative northeastern Indiana district in November.

Democrats have a very respectable nominee for the seat in former Fort Wayne councilman and physician Tom Hayhurst, but the partisan lean of the district poses an incredible climb in times like these. So it may be worth taking a closer look at Stutzman, who earlier this year lost the GOP nomination for Evan Bayh’s Senate seat to lobbyist kingpin Dan Coats. A new profile on Stutzman by the Fort Wayne Reader presents plenty of dirt, including this particular detail that offers a hint at just how much of a nutbag this guy really is (emphasis added):

In 2009, Stutzman co-hosted a dinner with State Representative Cindy Noe (R-87) at the annual Creation Evidence Expo, an Indianapolis organization that seeks to “make current scientific evidence that supports the conclusion that God created man.” Stutzman says that he and Noe (who is on the Education Committee in the Indiana House) were asked by the group to host the dinner, to which many legislators were invited.

“The information they had there was good information,” he says. “We had some very good conversations with the folks at the Expo, just getting to know them, over the last couple of years. They wanted to raise awareness of their issue, and wanted to meet as many folks who are willing to support their organization and also make those who are in the legislature aware of their issue as well.”

Over at Blue Indiana, Thomas (a great friend of SSP), asks a pretty pertinent question: Exactly what “information” did Stutzman find so compelling that day? Was it anything along these lines?

As if the website for this event wasn’t enough, a quick look at some of the groups behind the operation reveal all you need to know about the scientific validity of these clowns. Take the Institute for Creation Research, which features a story at the moment entitled “Is there some truth to dragon myths?”

There are other reasons to doubt that dragon legends arose from fossil-based speculations. Tales of dragons are almost universal and were incorporated into the historical background of virtually every people group on every continent. How could so many different cultures conjure up such similar details in their dragon legends, unless their ancestors actually encountered them?

It would be easily explained if humans had actually seen living dinosaurs.

Emphasis definitely fucking added!

I suppose it should be pretty frightening to know that this guy — an individual who throws parties for grown men and women who believe in the existence of dragons — could easily wind up as a national lawmaker next year, but I think he’ll be right at home among the teabagging class of 2010.

(Note: That may be my name in the by-line, but this post was written entirely by SSP Blogfather DavidNYC.)

AK-Sen: David Drucker reports that Lisa Murkowski has $1.8 million on-hand in her pre-primary FEC report, meaning she’s spent at least $600K (and probably more) since the end of June in her race against upstart Joe Miller (whose fundraising has been meager at best). And that’s a lot of money for Alaska.

AZ-Sen: John McCain’s final (or near-final) TV ad links J.D. Hayworth directly to Jack Abramoff, something his campaign has done for a while, but the first time McCain’s actually gone on the air with the attack. NWOTSOTB.

CO-Sen: Politico takes a good look at the backstory to that New York Times piece about Michael Bennet’s involvement in potentially questionable exotic financing deals the Denver public school system bought into during his tenure as its boss. The story was explicitly fed to NYT reporter Gretchen Morgenstern by Jeannie Kaplan, a prominent backer and fundraiser for Andrew Romanoff – a conflict the Times failed to mention in its initial writeup.

NV-Sen: We’ll stop telling you about all the crazy shit Sharron Angle says just as soon as we get tired of doing so – which will be never:

“I think we get confused a little bit. Our healthcare system is the best in the world. There’s nothing wrong with our healthcare system. Our doctors are the best,” says Angle.

A couple other Angle items: (1) She’s pledged not to accept PAC money from companies which provide health benefits to gay partners, but of course she’s taking their cash anyway. (2) After declaring that Obama wants to “make government our God,” she’s gone and accused Harry Reid of injecting religion into the race, saying Angle was merely “discussing her religion.” Uh huh.

PA-Sen, PA-07, PA-08: Buncha similar stories coming out of the Keystone State today. In the senate race, Dem Joe Sestak is trying to oust Green Party candidate Mel Packer from the ballot. In the 7th CD, GOPer Pat Meehan is attempting to boot teabagger Jim Schneller from the ticket. And in the 8th CD, PoliticsPA says that indy Tom Lingenfelter’s candidacy is also being challenged, presumably by the Mike Fitzpatrick campaign, seeing as Lingenfelter was helped on to the ballot by Patrick Murphy supporters.

TN-Gov: The list of candidates in America who would be well-served by burnishing a John Kerry-esque profile is very, very short – and the Republican nominee for governor in Tennessee ain’t on it. So you can understand why GOPer Bill Haslam has been taking some heat for the time he’s spent vacationing in Nantucket over the years. Just call him the first wine-track Republican!

CO-04, NM-02: Defenders of Wildlife is pledging to help thwart Cory Gardner and Steve Pearce in their races against Reps. Betsy Markey and Harry Teague. Though the group hasn’t said how much they’ll spend this year, they threw in over a million bucks to help Markey defeat ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave last cycle. They didn’t get involved in NM-02 last time, but they did spend six figures on behalf of Martin Heinrich in NM-01.

KS-04: Ah, nothing tastier than day-old cat fud – the smell just lingers in the air, doesn’t it? The second-, third-, and fourth-place finishers in the Republican primary are all holding off on endorsing winner Mike Pompeo. Jean Schodorf, Wink Hartman, and Jim Anderson are all saying that they “haven’t had any contact with Pompeo since before election day.” Schodorf even left a congratulatory message for Pompeo, who didn’t bother calling back. He sounds like an utter dickbag, which means he’ll fit in perfectly in the GOP caucus if he wins in November.

MI-01: With 16 of 31 counties having completed their re-canvass, surgeon Dan Benishek claims he leads state Sen. Jason Allen by 18 votes in this ultra-tight race. Once this process is over, then the candidates can ask for a recount, while Dem state Rep. Gary McDowell does a happy dance.

MI-09: At a recent fundraiser for Rocky Raczkowski, Phyllis Schlafly offered these bon mots:

Do you know what the second-biggest demographic group that voted for Obama – obviously the blacks were the biggest demographic group. But do you all know what was the second-biggest? Unmarried women, 70% of unmarried women, voted for Obama, and this is because when you kick your husband out, you’ve got to have big brother government to be your provider.

Rocky tried to distance himself from Schlafly’s comments, describing himself as “gender blind.” Which I guess makes him bisexual.

NY-23: DUIs seem to come up with depressing frequency on the campaign trail, but BUIs? No, that’s not a typo – that’s Boating Under the Influence. Yep, GOPer Matt Doheny was charged with the offense not once but twice back in 2004, and on the first occasion, he was combative enough to get handcuffed by the police.

OH-18: The NRCC is shopping around a poll, taken by On Message, Inc., which purportedly shows Rep. Zack Space tied with GOPer Bob Gibbs at 43 apiece. The Space campaign had an interesting response. A spokesman said: “It doesn’t square with what we know. And we’re not going to be head faked into releasing anything on our side.” Keep this quote in mind when you wonder why more Democrats haven’t released internal polls. I’m not saying this year isn’t going to be awful for us (I’m sure it will be), but there are strategic reasons to play your cards close to the vest. For instance, while an ugly, un-countered internal can be deadly for a challenger’s fundraising, someone like Space doesn’t have to be worried that donors will no longer take him seriously because of this poll.

TN-08: Dem Roy Herron released his first TV ad of the general election campaign, even before they finished counting the votes in the GOP primary. In the spot, he calls himself a “truck-driving, shotgun-shooting, Bible-reading, crime-fighting, family-loving coun­try boy.” NWOTSOTB.

Quinnipiac (8/3-8, likely voters, 7/28-8/2 in parens):

Tom Foley (R): 38 (41)

Mike Fedele (R): 30 (26)

Oz Griebel (R): 17 (13)

Undecided: 14 (21)

(MoE: 3.8%)

Ned Lamont (D): 45 (45)

Dan Malloy (D): 42 (40)

Undecided: 12 (14)

(MoE: 4.6%)

Quinnipiac finds some major movement for both Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy in the Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries, respectively. That’s the power of well-timed attack ads at work, and it should make for an exciting evening tomorrow night.

General election numbers (7/28-8/2, registered voters, 7/7-13 in parens):

Ned Lamont (D): 48 (49)

Michael Fedele (R): 33 (27)

Undecided: 14 (19)

Ned Lamont (D): 46 (45)

Tom Foley (R): 33 (33)

Undecided: 17 (17)

Ned Lamont (D): 50 (49)

Oz Greibel (R): 27 (25)

Undecided: 19 (21)

Dan Malloy (D): 47 (39)

Michael Fedele (R): 30 (26)

Undecided: 18 (20)

Dan Malloy (D): 46 (44)

Tom Foley (R): 31 (33)

Undecided: 16 (19)

Dan Malloy (D): 50 (51)

Oz Greibel (R): 25 (25)

Undecided: 18 (21)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

The boys in blue still look pretty good, but we’ll see how the shape of this race will change once Quinnipiac adjusts to a likely voter screen.

Finally, we’ve got some numbers from the on again/off again GOP Senate primary (8/3-8, likely voters, 7/28-8/2 in parens). And don’t call it a comeback…

Linda McMahon (R): 50 (47)

Rob Simmons (R): 28 (30)

Peter Schiff (R) : 15 (14)

Undecided: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

…because it ain’t. A Rob Simmons victory tomorrow night would either be an epic polling fail or a spectacular late-game change of heart in the GOP electorate.

The final piece — Senatorial general election numbers (7/28-8/2, registered voters, 7/7-13 in parens):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 50 (54)

Linda McMahon (R): 40 (37)

Undecided: 7 (7)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (55)

Rob Simmons (R): 35 (35)

Undecided: 7 (9)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 57 (58)

Peter Schiff (R): 30 (31)

Undecided: 9 (9)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspaper Partnership (8/2-4, likely voters, no trendlines):

Karen Handel (R): 47

Nathan Deal (R): 42

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±4%)

InsiderAdvantage (8/5, likely voters, no trendlines):

Karen Handel (R): 46

Nathan Deal (R): 46

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Landmark (8/7, likely voters, 8/1 in parentheses):

Nathan Deal (R): 44 (37)

Karen Handel (R): 42 (46)

Undecided: 14 (17)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Georgia’s GOP gubernatorial runoff is tomorrow, and as things reach a climax, no fewer than three pollsters are out today with their final look at the race. Karen Handel won the first round pretty easily, but it’s looking like Nathan Deal has finally consolidated a substantial amount of the conservative vote behind him that he’d previously shared with Eric Johnson and John Oxendine. (Which, of course, isn’t to say that the Sarah Palin-backed, let’s-repeal-the-state-income-tax Handel is some sort of moderate, just that stylistically she’s staking out somewhat less red-meat-intensive turf.)

If you average these polls out, you might think that Handel had a small advantage going into tomorrow, but the fine print seems to give Deal most of the momentum. The three polls here, arranged by chronological order in which they were taken, give successively better performances to Deal. And the one poll here with trendlines (Mason-Dixon and InsiderAdvantage have both polled this race repeatedly, but in each case this is their first post-primary pre-runoff poll), Republican pollster Landmark, actually switches from a significant Handel lead to a teeny Deal lead. Considering that Democratic ex-Gov. Roy Barnes would probably rather face Deal than Handel (and thus have the moderate turf all to himself, as well as the ethics cudgel), he might actually catch yet another break here.

• AK-Sen: Wow, now we’ve got Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin working in harmony in at least one place: Huckabee just endorsed Joe Miller, the little-known right-wing challenger to Lisa Murkowski in the GOP Senate primary.

• AZ-Sen: J.D. Hayworth is out with a new ad in a last-ditch effort to make up some ground on John McCain, and he’s relying on time-honored tradition of pulling a few of his opponents’ words out of context. In this case, he swipes the passage “I chose lying” from McCain’s 2002 audiobook, although in the book it was talking about the South Carolina confederate flag controversy, and Hayworth just slaps it down in an ad about immigration. The ad buy is for $365K.

• CA-Sen: This isn’t a surprise in terms of which of the candidates they endorsed, but it might be interesting that the Chamber of Commerce decided there was enough of a shot in this race for them to weigh in. They’re backing Carly Fiorina in the California Senate race, based on, y’know, her long track record of success at Hewlett-Packard.

• FL-Sen: A Mason-Dixon poll released late last week gives some hope to Kendrick Meek, who other polls had shown had fallen behind billionaire weirdo Jeff Greene in the Democratic primary. Their poll (conducted for “Leadership Florida and the Florida Press Association”) gives Meek a 33-29 lead. Greene’s main problem seems to be that the press keeps on doing stories about, well, all those things that Greene has been doing for the last couple decades; yesterday the St. Petersburg Times looked at Greene’s involvement in a California condo deal that belies his claims that he was a high-level investor and not involved in any of the myriad ground-level predatory lending transactions that, when all added together, helped create the real estate asset bubble. Greene’s defense? “I don’t follow what happens after the sale…. All I care about is that I get my money.” Finally, whether Greene or Meek wins the primary, one more problem they’ll have to deal with is the movement of prominent Democratic money to indie Charlie Crist. Pollster Mark Penn hasn’t been anyone’s image of a reliable or useful Democrat lately, but he is at least a prominent Democrat; he’s now raising for Crist.

• KY-Sen: Will “I worship you, Aqua Buddha” become the newest political catchphrase that sweeps the nation? GQ has a hilarious (if somewhat disturbing) look back at Rand Paul’s hellraising days at an undergrad at Baylor (a school from which, by the way, he doesn’t have a bachelor’s degree). It’ll be interesting to see if this actually creates any blowback for Paul.

• WA-Sen: Interesting: another endorsement for the once-moderate Dino Rossi from another celebrity on the right in the Senate. Unlike Jim DeMint (whose backing he got last week), who has something of a fundraising network that comes with his endorsement, Tom Coburn (who just announced his support) just has cachet with right-wing fanboys. More evidence that Rossi, while publicly pretending to be focused only on the general, is scrambling to shore up his right flank before the Top 2 primary where he faces competition from various teabaggers, most significantly Sarah Palin-backed Clint Didier.

• FL-Gov: That Mason-Dixon poll had a Republican gubernatorial portion as well, and they do provide some confirmation for the sense that Bill McCollum is worming his way back into this thing, with not much time left on the clock. Rick Scott leads McCollum only 37-31. Worth noting: it doesn’t seem to have anything to do with people taking notice of Scott’s legacy of Medicare fraud at Columbia/HCA, but rather, McCollum consolidating the Republican Hispanic vote (where he leads 3-1), probably thanks to Scott’s demagoguery on the immigration issue and McCollum’s more even-handed stance. Meanwhile, not that Bud Chiles was gaining much momentum, but explaining this could be a big distraction: his former leadership of innocuous-sounding charity HOPE Worldwide, which it turns out is an arm of the cultish International Churches of Christ.

• IA-Gov: Social conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats ran a surprisingly close race against Terry Branstad in the GOP gubernatorial primary and then threatened an independent run when he didn’t receive the proper amount of fealty post-primary. However, he announced last Friday that he won’t attempt a third-party bid (which would probably give the advantage in the race back to Chet Culver). He’ll focus his energies on defeating members of the Iowa Supreme Court, in retaliation for its gay marriage ruling.

• MN-Gov: If there’s one campaign out there in need of a shakeup, it’s Tom Emmer’s, as polls have made clear that the GOP gubernatorial nominee’s trajectory post-nomination has been aimed almost straight down. Old campaign manager Tom Mason departed for a farm upstate, replaced by former ’08 Norm Coleman CM Cullen Sheehan.

• PA-Gov: Remember Sam Rohrer, the socially conservative state Rep. who persisted in the GOP primary against AG Tom Corbett (and lost big)? His supporters still haven’t given up hope, and, although Pennsylvania law prohibits him from a ballot line in November, are now launching an independent write-in campaign for Rohrer. (Rohrer hasn’t endorsed the idea, but isn’t dissuading them either.) The write-in campaign is a particularly difficult beast, though, meaning that it’s likely that Rohrer wouldn’t pick up more than a couple percent, and the race would have to get closer than it currently is for that to harm Corbett’s odds against Dem Dan Onorato.

• RI-Gov: Brown University is out with a poll on the Rhode Island gubernatorial race, and one thing is clear: no current Republican is going to win the race. Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio leads independent ex-Republican ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee, by a bare 28-27 margin. For some reason, they seemed to poll the two Republicans jungle-style, but it really doesn’t matter as both are non-factors: former Don Carcieri communications director John Robitaille is at 7 and ex-state Rep. Victor Moffitt is at 2.

• FL-08: Jeb! backs Web! Ex-gov. Jeb Bush cut an ad in support of ex-state Sen. Daniel Webster, who, with his dithering, managed to blow his early shot at consolidating GOP establishment support in the primary. Instead, he’s one of many guys stuffed in the clown car, fighting for the right to oppose Rep. Alan Grayson.

• ID-01: The omission of Raul Labrador from the NRCC’s Young Guns, which seems to admit any Republican who has enough opposable digits to successfully operate a telephone and call donors, seemed like it was becoming too embarrassing for even the NRCC’s skilled writers to spin away. Labrador says he “changed his mind” and is now willing to join the entourage. Labrador, who has $69K, is only entering at the “On the Radar” level, though, the bottom of the pyramid.

• IL-14: State Sen. Randy Hultgren thought he struck some electoral gold when he found a contribution to Rep. Bill Foster from fellow Dem Maxine Waters for $1,000, which then demanded Foster give back. Unfortunately, there’s something to be said for basic reading skills: the contribution wasn’t to Bill Foster, but rather to former music industry exec Gary Foster, who’s now head of a charitable org called Upliftment Jamaica. Naturally, the Hultgren camp blamed the FEC for forcing them to screw up.

• LA-02: Sen. Mary Landrieu announced her backing for state Rep. Cedric Richmond in the Dem primary in the 2nd, more evidence that the Dem establishment is trying to unite behind Richmond and put the squeeze on primary rival state Rep. Juan LaFonta.

• MI-09: As part of the transition from primary to general election, one item that’s high on GOP nominee Rocky Raczkowski’s to-do list is to walk back his previous birtherism. After telling Politico in a post-primary interview that he’d “love” to see Obama’s birth certificate, he’s now out with a statement that Politico took his out of context… without, of course, explaining what context such a comment should be taken in.

• OH-18: Stop the presses! (And hide the women!) Bill Clinton adviser turned Fox News talking head Dick Morris has announced he’ll be making appearances on behalf of at least 40 Republican candidates this year. That includes a fundraiser for Rep. Zack Space’s opponent, state Sen. Bob Gibbs, later this month.

• RI-01, RI-02: That Brown gubernatorial poll also looked at the Democratic primaries in the 1st and 2nd, although the margin of error is terribly high (7.4% in RI-01). In the 1st, Providence mayor David Cicilline is in command of the Dem field, leading former state party chair William Lynch 32-11 15, with 11 for businessman Anthony Gemma and 5 for state Rep. David Segal (who just got the local SEIU‘s backing, by the way). In the 2nd, Rep. Jim Langevin looks likely to weather his primary challenge with ease; he leads state Rep. Elizabeth Dennigan 55-12.

• SBA List: Anti-abortion group the Susan B. Anthony List has come out with polls of one open Senate race and three House races featuring Dem incumbents (where the common thread seems that all the Dems are anti-abortion), courtesy of that Republican pollster with the oh-so-creative name, The Polling Company. They find Dan Coats leading Brad Ellsworth 50-35 in the Indiana Senate race. The House races are an interesting mix of the good, the bad, and the so-so. For the good, Rep. Joe Donnelly seems to start on solid ground in IN-02, where he leads state Rep. Jackie Walorski 52-35. For the bad, Rep. Steve Driehaus may just be the most DOA of any House Democrat, as this is one more poll giving him a double-digit deficit against ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (51-41). And for the so-so, Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (last seen losing in a too-good-to-be-true internal from GOP opponent Mike Kelly) is leading Kelly by a pretty plausible 46-42.

• Blue Dogs: The Blue Dogs handed out a load of endorsements to Dem candidates, looking to replenish their soon-to-be-depleted ranks (thanks to a number of retirements, as well as many of their members being in many of the nation’s most competitive races). Endorsees are Steve Raby in AL-05, Chad Causey in AR-01, Roy Herron in TN-08, Trent van Haaften in IN-08, and Stephene Moore in KS-03.

• Rasmussen:

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 37%, Mike Castle (R) 49%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 46%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 36%

• IA-Gov: Chet Culver (D-inc) 36%, Terry Branstad (R) 52%

• KS-Gov: Tom Holland (D) 34%, Sam Brownback (R) 57%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 38%, Kelly Ayotte (R) 51%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 40%, Bill Binnie (R) 46%

• SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 27%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 59%

• SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 42%, Kristi Noem (R) 51%

Public Policy Polling (8/7-8, likely voters, 5/14-16 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 49 (46)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 43 (31)

Undecided: 9 (23)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Andrew Romanoff has clearly made some pretty big strides in recent weeks, snaring a big chunk of undecideds and turning this sleepy race into a potential nail-biter tomorrow night. Still, unlike SurveyUSA, which released a poll last week showing Romanoff with a slim lead over Bennet, PPP’s tricorder is detecting a Bennet win to be the likeliest outcome. If that’s true, I wonder if that recent NY Times piece on Bennet’s exotic financial deal-making that backfired while he was the Superintendent of the Denver Board of Education may have come out a little too late for Romanoff to make enough hay out of it. But, maybe robocalls from Bubba will help change a few minds.

Meanwhile, over in GOPville…

Jane Norton (R): 45 (31)

Ken Buck (R): 43 (26)

Undecided: 12 (29)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Scott McInnis (R): 41

Dan Maes (R): 40

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±3.5%)

PPP also offers slightly different takes than SUSA on the GOP Senate and Gube primaries, showing bare leads for Norton and McInnis where SUSA found Buck and Maes leading the pack last week.

One has to wonder if McInnis would really stick with this thing if he won the primary (his favorability numbers are in the net negatives among Republicans, so the dude is clearly screwed), or if he would step aside and let someone like former state Sen. Josh Penry or Jane Norton (assuming she loses the Senate primary) take his spot on the ballot instead, a deal that ColoradoPols is picking up plenty of chatter about on their enemy radio surveillance channels. And even then, you’ve gotta wonder if Tom Tancredo would stick out his third-party bid or allow one of Penry or Norton (or whomever) a fighting chance in the general election.

(cross-posted at dKos; if you feel this diary is worth people knowing about, please Recommend it there as well as here, thanks!)

OK. As many of you know, I’ve been posting diaries about the unusual situation going on in Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, where all-around wingnut Republican Mike Rogers has been in office for the past 10 years.

I’m not going to rehash the backstory in MI-08 again at this time; check this diary for the details.

For the record, MI-08 is the district of Mike “Kill the WikiLeaks Guy!” Rogers, who also wants to allow drilling in the Great Lakes.

The short version is this: Kande Ngalamulume–who had grown up in Lansing, Michigan, but had been living and working in Pennsylvania for several years before moving back to Lansing in order to run for Congress–filed for the Democratic nomination and ran a campaign for a few months.

Citing a lack of support and funding, he then decided to drop out of the race after the filing deadline. Since he was the only one who had filed in time, he was virtually guaranteed to be on the ballot in November, even though he had dropped out and moved back to Pennsylvania.

Lansing resident Lance Enderle decided that someone should actually face Rogers in November, and launched a last-minute, desperate write-in campaign for the Democratic nomination, which I promoted non-stop here and elsewhere in the blogosphere (Full disclosure: I’m also the campaign website developer; I’m not being paid much, but I am being paid).

Unfortunately, in spite of a flurry of last-minute activity, it just wasn’t to be: Lance only garnered around 2,100 votes out of 28,000 cast in the Democratic primary, or around 7.5%.

Now, on the one hand, this sucks given how much work and effort everyone on the campaign put in (along with some help from dKos and elsewhere).

On the other hand, typical write-in campaigns are lucky to get more than 1% of the vote at best, and that’s only when they have a decent amount of time and money, neither of which Lance had. For that matter, write-ins at the Congressional level are almost unheard of (I looked it up–there’s only been perhaps a half-dozen successful write-in campaigns in Congressional history, and that’s almost always been with much higher-profile candidates).

Lance only had about 40 days and a couple thousand dollars to scrape together his campaign.

Getting over 7% of the vote in a U.S. Congressional write-in campaign is actually pretty damned impressive, if you think about it.

ANYWAY…

Normally, this would be the end of it, right? Lance put in a good effort, but it just wasn’t meant to be, and he came up short.

HOWEVER…

Since the election, there’s been an important development:

After briefly flirting with the idea of jumping back into the race after all, Mr. Ngalamulume publicly announced that not only is he officially NOT running, but that–even more importantly–he is going to formally change his legal residency back to Pennsylvania, which would allow Michigans’ 8th District Democratic Party to have his name removed from the November ballot, and replace him with someone else’s name.

You know, someone like, say, Lance Enderle.

Yes, that’s right–Lance is now very likely to be named as the Democratic Congressional Nominee for the 8th District after all!

Now, I must stress that this hasn’t actually happened yet. For one thing, the various parties involved–the MI-08 Dems, the Michigan SoS office, and (I presume) the Pennsylvania SoS office, along with Lance, are all waiting for the actual paperwork to be filed. For another, it’s always possible that the MI-08 powers that be will name someone else to be the replacement candidate. However, this is considered pretty unlikely, especially since, to my knowledge, Lance is the only one who’s even expressed any interest in running.

The paperwork and legal processes necessary are expected to happen within the next few days. I’ve been holding off on posting about the situation until the process had completed. However, given the fact that every day that passes makes it that much more difficult to take on Mike Rogers, I’ve been given the OK to give an update on where things stand.

In the meantime, Lance needs your help to ensure that once his name is officially listed, he can get his (admittedly difficult) campaign up and running with minimal down time.

This coming weekend has a number of events–parades and other such things–that the campaign needs to retool for, and very little time to do so. To help prepare for this, we’re putting together a quickie money bomb goal of $3,000 for the coming week.

As for Lance himself, I just wanted to give a taste of one of the excellent 3rd-party blogosphere stories from The Political Carnival; to wit:

I just got off the phone with a someone I could have hung out with for hours. He owns a golden retriever he calls “Dude”, he is a 6th-12th grade social studies teacher going for his masters in special ed at Michigan State, and as lay back and wickedly funny as he is, he’s dead serious about representing the people of Michigan’s 8th district.

And when I say people I mean people. Not corporations. Not BP. Not K Street. Not like Republican Mike Rogers, the incumbent, who really ought to give the HBO movie “Gasland” a little look-see.

Oh, yeah–and I can’t forget the money quote:

After talking to him for quite awhile, I could easily draw parallels to Rep. Alan Grayson. IMHO, Enderle could very well become the new most dangerous man in Washington. Sort of an Alan Grayson with a James Earl Jonesish voice.

Yup. She went there.

You guys keep saying you want more Alan Graysons in Congress, right?

Now imagine Alan Grayson with Darth Vader’s voice.

Lance Enderle for Congress

Lance’s ActBlue Page

Lance’s Facebook Page

Lance on Twitter

GIVE LANCE A CHANCE!!

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

This is the first part of two posts analyzing Louisiana’s 2003 gubernatorial election, in which Republican candidate Bobby Jindal narrowly lost to lieutenant governor Kathleen Blanco. The second part can be found here.

Bobby Jindal’s Strange Coalition

In 2003, an ambitious Bobby Jindal ran for Louisiana governor against Democratic candidate Kathleen Blanco. Despite holding a narrow polling lead throughout most of the campaign, Mr. Jindal ended up losing by a three-point margin.

The story of the coalition that voted for Mr. Jindal constitutes quite the interesting tale. It is much different from the Republican base as commonly envisioned in the Deep South.

To begin, let’s take a look at a map of the election – which is substantially different from most modern electoral maps. Here it is:

More below.

The first thing that strikes the eye is the sheer number of parishes Mr. Jindal lost. He was absolutely crushed in rural Louisiana.

This is a remarkable thing. In the United States of today, it is usually an accomplishment for a Democrat to win a state’s rural counties, even in a landslide. Democrats almost never win the rural vote when the election is close.

Mr. Jindal, of course, got 48% of the vote somewhere. As it turns out, these votes came mainly from the state’s most populous parishes. The state’s most populous parish – Jefferson Parish – voted for Mr. Jindal by more than a 3-to-2 margin. In New Orleans, with the endorsement of Mayor Ray Nagin, Mr. Jindal did as well as possible for a Republican, winning almost one-third of the vote.

In other words, Mr. Jindal used strong margins from metropolitan, suburban Louisiana to counter Ms. Blanco’s rural strength and New Orleans – a strategy more familiar to Democrats than Republicans.

Here is a more “normal” election in Louisiana:

Although it does not look like it, Republican candidate Suzanne Terrell did only one point better than Mr. Jindal.

There are substantial differences in their coalitions, however. Ms. Terrell did worse in the populous southeast, although the map does not show it well. She lost Baton Rouge (which Mr. Jindal won) and took only one-fifth of the vote in New Orleans, compared to the one-third Mr. Jindall racked up.

On the other hand, Ms. Terrell performed far better in rural, northern Louisiana – winning a number of thinly populated, poor parishes that Mr. Jindal lost. It was Mr. Jindal’s performance that constituted the aberration; deeply conservative, these parishes are a core part of the Republican base.

The next section will focus on the racial dynamics that caused this effect.