Swing State Project

This is my first attempt at redistricting Illinois.  I drew this map assuming that Governor Pat Quinn wins re-election and Democrats control the redistricting trifecta.  SSPers know, of course, that Pat Quinn trails in the high single-digits in the most recent polls, so full Democratic control remains in doubt.  

Illinois is predicted to lose a congressional seat in 2012, going from 19 to 18 seats.  This necessitated the drawing together of two incumbents, Peter Roskam and Mike Quigley.  Illinois also currently has 4 VRA districts (3 African-American, 1 Hispanic) all based in the City of Chicago.  I preserved all 4 districts, and I felt that the sharp Hispanic growth required the creation of another majority Hispanic district.  Therefore, my map has 5 Minority-Majority districts.  

Chicago Area

District 1 (Golden Yellow) Pop. 716,433; 56% Black, 36% White, 6% Hispanic – Bobby Rush (D)

Located in the Heart of Chicago’s South Side, the 1st District remains mostly the same, except that it grows a bit in area and becomes dramatically less Black (formerly 65%, now 56%), but this is all a result of population loss in that area.  Still heavily Black and strongly Democratic. Obama ~ 80% – 85%

District 2 (Dark Blue) Pop. 719,391; 55% Black, 32% White, 12% Hispanic – Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D)

The South Side’s other Majority Black district, the 2nd also stays mostly the same, but expands in area and becomes a bit less Black.  It takes in some of the Cook County portion of Judy Biggert’s current district, but still remains the most Democratic district in Illinois.  Obama ~ 85% – 90%

District 3 (Red) Pop. 712,342; 63% Hispanic, 29% White, 5% Black – OPEN (D)

Unlike most of the other ethnic groups in the city, Chicago’s Hispanic population is growing rapidly.  Currently there is only one Majority Hispanic district in Illinois, represented by Luis Gutierrez. The rapid growth, as well as the large distance between the two main Latino enclaves, led me to create two Hispanic majority districts.  The 3rd, located on the South and West sides of the City and including Cicero, Berwyn, and Burbank, is predominantly Mexican.  Gutierrez, this area’s current Congressman, is Puerto Rican and lives on the North Side.  The split will allow the Mexican Community to have it’s own voice in Congress.

Obama ~ 70% – 75%

District 4 (Turquoise Blue) Pop. 716,176; 57% Hispanic, 30% White, 5% Black – Luis Gutierrez (D)

This is Chicago’s second majority Hispanic District.  It is primarily Puerto Rican and is located just North and West of the Loop.  It is reasonably compact (much better than the previous 4th, at least) and includes Rep. Gutierrez’s home.  He would likely be very happy with this district.  It remains strongly Democratic. Obama ~ 70% – 75%

District 5 (Purple) Pop. 718,061; 74% White, 14% Hispanic, 8% Asian – Mike Quigley (D) + Peter Roskam (R)

The new 5th District draws together two relatively new Congressman, Democrat Mike Quigley of Chicago and Republican Peter Roskam of DuPage County.  Roskam’s District was very evenly divided when he won his first term in 2006, but in 2008 it gave President Obama 56% of the vote.  The addition of strongly Democrat-leaning parts of Northern Chicago makes the 5th a likely to safe Democrat district, and Quigley should beat Roskam fairly easily.  Obama ~ 60% – 65%

District 6 (Gray) Pop. 718,677; 54% Black, 35% White, 5% Hispanic – Danny Davis (D)

Danny Davis’s District bled population over the last decade, and therefore had to increase dramatically in size.  It is the last of Chicago’s 3 majority Black districts, and it stretches from Downtown/The Loop out to the Cook County – DuPage County border, and South to include more conservative suburbs formerly represented by Dan Lipinski.  At 54% Black, it is still strongly Democratic.  Obama ~ 80% – 85%

District 7 (Pink) Pop. 720,868; 64% White, 13% Asian, 13% Hispanic – Jan Schakowsky (D)

This new district takes up much of North Chicago along the lakeshore, including Lakeview, the Midwest’s largest gay district.  Much of this area was formerly in Mike Quigley’s district, but will probably be happier with a strong Liberal like Schakowsky.  It also includes her home in Evanston, some North-Western suburbs like Des Plaines and Park Ridge, and other Democrat leaning areas north of the city.  It should be safely Democratic.  Obama ~ 70% – 75%

Collar Counties/Chicago Exurbs

District 8 (Violet/Purplish Blue) Pop. 718,040; 74% White, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian – Melissa Bean (D)

Covers a similar territory to Bean’s old district, but now takes in more of Lake and Cook Counties and much less of McHenry County.  Moves closer to Chicago, so I would guess that it becomes somewhat more Democratic.  Likely still a narrowly Dem-leaning swing district.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 9  (Bright Green) Pop. 715,049; 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 10% Asian – Dan Seals (D) or Bob Dold (R)

Mark Kirk’s elusive North Shore district moves a little more into Cook County, and becomes 15% less White in the process (going from 81% to 66%).  It now includes Dan Seals’ home in Willmette, as well as Highland Park, Lake Forest, and Waukegan in Lake County.  If Dan Seals doesn’t win this district in 2010, another Democrat will in 2012.  Obama ~ 65% – 70%

District 10  (Tan) Pop. 712,389; 73% White, 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian – Judy Biggert (R) + Dan Lipinski (D)

This district strongly resembles Judy Biggert’s old 13th, but it was drawn with ConservaDem Dan Lipinski in mind.  It includes a portion of his old urban-suburban district, as well as parts of Will and DuPage counties, centered mainly around Naperville.  If faced with a Lipinski matchup in 2012, Biggert would probably opt to retire, but if not, or if Republicans can manage to find a moderate State legislator to run, Republicans could hold this district.  But Lipinski, a social-conservative who is already well known in the area, would have a significant chance of winning here.  Obama ~ 50% – 55%

District 11 (Olive Green) Pop. 718,631; 66% White, 24% Hispanic, 6% Black – Bill Foster (D) OR Randy Hultgren (R)

One of the few Districts in Illinois that has been experiencing steady growth over the past decade, Bill Foster’s district had to shed it’s Western rural counties, but is still centered around Kane, Kendall, and Dekalb Counties.  It includes the fast growing, Democrat-leaning, minority-majority city of Aurora, as well as Geneva, Elgin, and DeKalb. Becomes slightly more Democratic, which should help Foster out, though the district is already trending blue.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

Rural Illinois

District 12 (Dark Green) Pop. 712,202; 80% White, 11% Hispanic, 6% Black – Don Manzullo (R)

Manzullo’s district stays mostly the same (centered around Rockford), but loses rural Carrol, Ogle, and Whiteside Counties in exchange for almost all of McHenry.  Maybe moves slightly left, but not drastically, and not enough to dislodge Manzullo.  Obama ~ 50% – 55%

District 13 (Periwinkle Blue)  Pop. 719,998; 76% White, 12% Hispanic, 9% Black – Debbie Halvorson (D) OR Adam Kizinger (R)

The 14th takes in all of Kankakee County, most of Will County, and most of LaSalle County.  It loses the strange shaped arm that stretched South into McLean County and becomes much more compact.  Minority growth in the Joliet area makes this district a bit more Democratic, and should be a Democratic hold in a neutral year.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 14 (Sky Blue) Pop. 717,188; 90% White, 4% Hispanic, 3% Black – Aaron Schock (R)

I had to draw Aaron Schock’s home in Peoria out of his district and into Phil Hare’s but in exchange I gave him a district that is a bit more Republican.  It streches South from the Iowa border to strongly Republican Tazewell County, then to the Springfield area, and finally West to include all of McLean County.  Should be safely Republican.  Obama ~ 45%

District 15 (Orange) Pop. 717,498; 88% White, 6% Black, 3% Hispanic – Timothy Johnson (R)

Stays almost exactly the same, covers the same area along the Indiana border and leans strongly Republican.  Obama ~ 45% – 50%

District 16 (Dark Purple)  Pop. 716,746; 83% White, 9% Black, 4% Hispanic – Phil Hare (D)  

This district is now much more compact than it used to be. It includes the Illinois portion of the Quad Cities, Peoria, and a small portion of Springfield, as well as a large swath of rural farming counties along the Iowa border.  Should be safe for Hare, though the area is trending Republican.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 17 (Green) Pop. 717,602; 81% White, 15% Black, 2% Hispanic – Jerry Costello (D)

I tried to shore up Costello’s district as much as possible, but it’s still more or less the same.  It loses some of it’s far Southern counties along the Kentucky border that have been trending Republican, and gains Macoupin and Montgomery Counties, both of which were won by Obama. Still, the needle doesn’t move too much.  Obama ~ 55%

District 18 (Yellow) Pop. 711,505 89% White, 7% Black, 2% Hispanic – John Shimkus (R)

Still the most Republican district in Illinois, Shimkus’s doesn’t change much.  It’s hard to believe this district was once represented by Dick Durbin.  Obama ~ 40% – 45%

Here is my first attempt at redistricting New Jersey.

Here is a 10-2 NJ plan that is fairly compact, preserves communities of interest, and still has 2 VRA districts. It only splits a small handful of cities, and minimizes splitting counties.

Unlike some other states, NJ has just barely enough minorities in the same place to fill a VRA district(and it gets harder every census), so VRA districts can’t be used to soak up Republican votes.

Note: Obama vs McCain numbers for new districts don’t count votes for other candidats, so they always add up to 100%.

1st District Frank LoBiondo (R) BLUE

Pinelands, Atlantic City area

New 56%O 44%M Old 54%O 45%M

67% White, 15% Black, 13% Hispanic, 3% Asian

In 2008 Frank LoBiondo was reelected with 62% of the vote in a district that gave Obama 54%. Do the math, how Democratic will it have to be to dislodge him. At least now at 56% Obama the district is all but certain to go Democratic after LoBiondo retires (he’s 64). The outermost townships of Camden and Gloucester are more rural than the rest of their counties, but they are just as Democratic. (So I lied, as long as LoBiondo sticks around it’s not 10-2).

2nd District Rob Andrews (D), John Adler (D) GREEN

Camden area

New 63%O 37%M Old 65%O 34%M

70% White, 15% Black, 10% Hispanic, 4% Asian

Rob Andrews and John Adler are my least favorite Democratic Congressmen from NJ, so I don’t mind putting both of them into the same district. It’s 2 points less Democratic, to help out the 1st.

3rd District Rush Holt (D) PURPLE

Mount Laurel, Trenton, Princeton

New 63%O 37%M Old 52%O 47%M

67% White, 18% Black, 9% Hispanic, 5% Asian

Rush Holt is my favorite Democratic Congressman, so I hate doing this to him. His district (the old 12th) is split almost perfectly in 2, so he gets to pick which half he wants. This district follows the Delaware River from Palmyra to Frenchtown. Obama won even the Hunterdon part of this district.

4th District Chris Smith (R) RED

Ocean county, southern Monmouth County

New 41%O 59%M Old 47%O 52%M

87% White, 3% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian

There is no need to split Ocean County because it is so uniformly Republican. Just add some like-minded southern Monmouth. About 2/3 of Smith’s district is already in Monmouth and Ocean, so this isn’t a big change for him. Now the Mercer and Burlington parts of his district can go in a Democratic district where they belong. Bill Clinton probably won it in 1996.

5th District Rush Holt? (D) YELLOW

Brunswicks, Windsors, Franklin, Bridgewater

New 61%O 39%M Old 58%O 41%M

61% White, 9% Black, 12% Hispanic, 17% Asian

The well-educated, affluent, heavily-Democratic suburbs of Central NJ. It’s more Democratic because it loses the arms extending into Hunterdon and Monmouth. Rush Holt will probably take this district so John Adler can have the 3rd.

6th District Frank Pallone (D) TURQUOISE

Lake Como to most of Edison

New 55%O 45%M Old 60%O 39%M

63% White, 9% Black, 16% Hispanic, 11% Asian

It loses some Democratic strength because it takes more of Monmouth, but it’s still Democratic enough. This piece of Monmouth has a majority of the county’s population and Obama won it.

7th District Rodney Frehlinghuysen (R) GRAY

Morristown, Plainfield, Linden

New 56%O 44%M Old 7th: 51%O 48%M — Old 11th: 45%O 54%M

63% White, 11% Black, 15% Hispanic, 10% Asian

This district contains all of Union that’s not in a VRA district, and piece of Morris that Obama lost by 300 votes (out of 100,000), and fairly Democratic pieces of Somerset, Middlesex, and Essex. At last, North Plainfield, Plainfiled, and South Plainfield are all in the same district! It has a finger protrude west into Dover and Wharton so those Democratic towns don’t go to waste. Rodney F has not represented most of this territory before, so it will be difficult for him to win it. Linda Stender or Ed Potosnak should win it fairly easily.

8th District Donald Payne (D) INDIGO

Newark, Oranges, Roselle

New 82%O 18%M Old 87%O 13%M

26% White, 51% Black, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian

The black VRA district. It loses heavily Democratic and white Linden and Rahway, and takes in Republican-leaning Kenilworth and Nutley.

9th District Albio Sires (D)CYAN

Elizabeth, Hoboken, Kearny

New 72%O 28%M Old 75%O 24%M

34% White, 7% Black, 49% Hispanic, 8% Asian

The Hispanic VRA district. It no longer reaches into Middlesex County, that territory is saved for a Democrat who needs it more.

10th District Steve Rothman (D) PINK

Secaucus, most of Bergen

New 58%O 42%M Old 61%O 38%M

60% White, 6% Black, 17% Hispanic, 15% Asian

It extends to the northern border because of slow population growth. This makes it 3 points less Democratic. That’s still Democratic enough.

11th District Bill Pascrell (D) LIME

West Orange, Paterson, Ridgewood

New 56%O 44%M Old 63%O 36%M

57% White, 9% Black, 26% Hispanic, 7% Asian

Just like the 10th, it extends to the northern border and becomes less Democratic. It’s still Paterson-centric.

12th District Scott Garrett (R), Leonard lance (R) SKY BLUE

northwest NJ

New 42%O 58%M Old 5th: 45%O 54%M

86% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian

All of Sussex and Warren. Parts of Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris and Passaic. Any territory in NW NJ that is remotely Democratic has been drawn into a different district.

Republican Gerrymander

1st District Rob Andrews (D) BLUE

Camden and Burlington area

New 69%O 31%M Old 65%O 34%M

63% White, 21% Black, 11% Hispanic, 4% Asian

The existing 1st was designed to pack in as much Democratic territory as possible. I just did a better job. This is the only Dem district that’s more than 50% white.

2nd District Frank LoBiondo (R) GREEN

Pinelands, Bay shore, Vineland/Millville, Cape May

New 53%O 47%M Old 54%O 45%M

75% White, 11% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian

It loses Atlantic City and Pleasantville to make it more Republican, and make up for it gaining Gloucester County.

3rd District John Adler? (D) PURPLE

Atlantic City, Toms River, Delran

New 49.7%O 50.3%M Old 52%O 47%M

79% White, 9% Black, 7% Hispanic, 4% Asian

This district is dominated by Ocean County, and doesn’t have anywhere for a Democrat to build a base.

4th District Chris Smith (R) RED

Hamilton, Old Bridge, Springfield

New 53%O 47%M Old 47%O 52%M

74% White, 6% Black, 9% Hispanic, 10% Asian

Chris Smith always outperforms his district’s PVI, especially in Hamilton (the southwesternmost town in this district). In 2008 Hamilton gave 55% of its vote to Obama and 68% of its vote to Smith. Hamilton (pop. 86k) should be enough of an anchor for Smith to hold down the rest of this swing district.

5th District Rush Holt (D) SKY BLUE

Trenton, New Brunswick, Plainfield

New 72%O 28%M Old 58%O 41%M

44% White, 21% Black, 15% Hispanic, 18% Asian

Democratic Central NJ gets packed in like never before. It’s minority-majority, which is hard to believe from the part where I live. Pretend this district has the most Democratic possible combination of Edison and Woodbridge, while Chris Smith gets the rest of Edison and Woodbridge.

6th District Frank Pallone (D) TURQUOISE

Monmouth and northern Ocean

New 45%O 55%M Old 60%O 39%M

78% White, 7% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian

It’s probably too Republican for Pallone to hold it. And most of it is territory he has not represented before.

7th District Leonard Lance (R) GRAY

Flemington, Somerville, Morristown, West Orange

New 49%O 51%M Old 7th: 51%O 48%M — Old 11th: 45%O 54%M

76% White, 4% Black, 9% Hispanic, 10% Asian

A more Republican version of the current 7th district.

8th District Donald Payne (D) PINK

Newark, Oranges, Roselle

New 84%O 16%M Old 87%O 13%M

23% White, 53% Black, 17% Hispanic, 5% Asian

It only became less Democratic because it lost population and had to expand. It still packs in blacks and white Democrats.

9th District Albio Sires (D)CYAN

Elizabeth, Hoboken, Union City

New 74%O 26%M Old 75%O 24%M

30% White, 8% Black, 53% Hispanic, 8% Asian

Not that different from the existing 13th.

10th District Steve Rothman (D) vs Bill Pascrell (D) INDIGO

Paterson, Hackensack, Englewood

New 69%O 31%M Old 8th: 63%O 36%M — Old 9th: 61%O 38%M

44% White, 21% Black, 15% Hispanic, 18% Asian

The most Democratic parts of the existing 8th and 9th get packed into 1 district.

11th District Rodney Frehlinghuysen (R) LIME

Warren County to Secaucus

New 51%O 49%M Old 45%O 54%M

77% White, 3% Black, 12% Hispanic, 7% Asian

It takes in northern Essex, southern Bergen, and Secaucus and part of Kearny. Morris and Warren should be enough to keep it Republican at the Congressional level. If it’s not Republican enough for you then trade some territory with the 12th, which has some Republican strength to spare.

12th District Scott Garrett (R) YELLOW

Sussex to Alpine

New 46%O 54%M Old 5th: 45%O 54%M

83% White, 2% Black, 7% Hispanic, 8% Asian

Everything along NJ’s northern border.

For the final leg of our journey, we are going to the Southland, which includes the 3 biggest counties in the state. Back in 1910, these counties held just about 30% of the state’s population, while the Bay Area held 40%. Now, the Southland’s slice of the pie has been pumped up to 55%, while the Bay Area holds barely 20%. Looking at the PVI results from 1992, it made perfect sense for Clinton to focus his California efforts more on SoCal, because it was making up a greater share of the state. His efforts plus the demographic changes already underway played a big part in pulling this very populous region, and the state, leftward.

Los Angeles

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	936,455	85.8%	27.33%	R+9.1
1930	2,208,492	135.8%	38.90%	R+5.8
1940	2,785,643	26.1%	40.33%	D+4.7
1950	4,151,687	49.0%	39.22%	R+1.7
1960	6,038,771	45.5%	38.42%	D+1.3
1970	7,041,980	16.6%	35.29%	D+2.4
1980	7,477,239	6.2%	31.59%	R+0.2
1990	8,863,052	18.5%	29.78%	D+8.7
2000	9,519,338	7.4%	28.10%	D+13.5
2008*	9,862,049	3.6%	26.96%	D+16.0

Orange

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	61,375	78.20%	1.79%	R+14.2
1930	118,674	93.40%	2.09%	R+14.6
1940	130,760	10.20%	1.89%	R+15.2
1950	216,224	65.40%	2.04%	R+10.4
1960	703,925	225.60%	4.48%	R+13.7
1970	1,421,233	101.90%	7.12%	R+17.3
1980	1,932,921	36.00%	8.17%	R+13.1
1990	2,410,668	24.70%	8.10%	R+10.4
2000	2,846,289	18.10%	8.40%	R+7.1
2008*	3,010,759	5.80%	8.23%	R+6.8

San Diego

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	112,248	82.00%	3.28%	R+4.0
1930	209,659	86.80%	3.69%	R+5.9
1940	289,348	38.00%	4.19%	D+1.6
1950	556,808	92.40%	5.26%	R+5.8
1960	1,033,011	85.50%	6.57%	R+6.8
1970	1,357,854	31.40%	6.81%	R+6.5
1980	1,861,846	37.10%	7.87%	R+11.0
1990	2,498,016	34.20%	8.39%	R+4.8
2000	2,813,833	12.60%	8.31%	R+4.0
2008*	3,001,072	6.70%	8.20%	R+0.2

Imperial

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	43,453	219.70%	1.27%	R+1.4
1930	60,903	40.20%	1.07%	D+0.5
1940	59,740	-1.90%	0.86%	R+1.6
1950	62,975	5.40%	0.59%	R+6.7
1960	72,105	14.50%	0.46%	R+1.2
1970	74,492	3.30%	0.37%	R+5.5
1980	92,110	23.70%	0.39%	R+3.5
1990	109,303	18.70%	0.37%	R+1.0
2000	142,361	30.20%	0.42%	D+5.2
2008*	163,972	15.20%	0.45%	D+7.0

Riverside

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	50,297	45.00%	1.47%	R+13.2
1930	81,024	61.10%	1.43%	R+15.8
1940	105,524	30.20%	1.53%	R+9.6
1950	170,046	61.10%	1.61%	R+10.3
1960	306,191	80.10%	1.95%	R+5.6
1970	456,916	49.20%	2.29%	R+2.8
1980	663,199	45.10%	2.80%	R+5.8
1990	1,170,413	76.50%	3.93%	R+4.3
2000	1,545,387	32.00%	4.56%	R+4.9
2008*	2,100,516	35.90%	5.74%	R+4.9

San Bernardino

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	73,401	29.40%	2.14%	R+6.4
1930	133,900	82.40%	2.36%	R+11.5
1940	161,108	20.30%	2.33%	R+0.9
1950	281,642	74.80%	2.66%	R+2.6
1960	503,591	78.80%	3.20%	R+0.8
1970	682,233	35.50%	3.42%	R+3.1
1980	895,016	31.20%	3.78%	R+5.9
1990	1,418,380	58.50%	4.77%	R+4.7
2000	1,709,434	20.50%	5.05%	R+2.7
2008*	2,015,355	17.90%	5.51%	R+2.6

One of these days a Congressman from Michigan’s gonna come back home and build a turtle fence lose a Governor’s race!

I swear – the more I drink, the more this Congress is makin’ sense!

SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (8/2-4, likely voters, 6/14-6/16 in parens; 5/3-5 in brackets):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 46 (38) [34]

Tom Emmer (R): 32 (35) [42]

Tom Horner (I): 9 (12) [9]

Undecided: 13 (15) [15]

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 39 (33) [33]

Tom Emmer (R): 33 (35) [41]

Tom Horner (I): 9 (12) [9]

Undecided: 13 (21) [17]

Matt Entenza (DFL): 38 (33) [31]

Tom Emmer (R): 33 (37) [42]

Tom Horner (I): 12 (12) [10]

Undecided: 17 (18) [16]

(MoE: ±2.7%)

The wheels on the bus go round-and-round, except, of course, if your bus is Tom Emmer’s gubernatorial candidacy. Emmer’s hit a few speedbumps recently, having been on the receiving end of ads from DFL candidate Matt Entenza attacking Emmer’s Palinism and outside groups hitting Emmer on drunk driving laws.

SurveyUSA follows up with a second poll confirming the results of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s poll earlier this week, with leads for each of the DFL hopefuls. Emmer’s decline’s been quite stunning, having consistently lost points in each progressive SurveyUSA poll. We’ve had “Joementum” and felt the “Mumpower”, and now, there’s “Emmermentum.” Mark Dayton fares the best, now boasting a 14-point lead, up from an 8-point deficit three months ago – a remarkable 22% swing in that time. Margaret Anderson Kelliher is now up 6, a 14-point swing from being down 8; Entenza’s now 5 up, a 16-point swing from being 11 down.

SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (8/2-4, likely voters, 6/14-6/16 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 43 (39)

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 27 (26)

Matt Entenza (DFL): 22 (22)

Undecided: 7 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The corresponding part of the poll examining the DFL primary also mirrors the Star Tribune’s poll. There’s been slight movement since SurveyUSA last examined the race in June, with Mark Dayton still in the driver’s seat with a 16-point lead over MAK and Entenza in third. Dayton looks well on his way along the road to redemption since retiring from the Senate four years ago; with these results and Emmer’s rising unfavorables, there’s good reason for optimism that we’ll take back the Governor’s Mansion in St. Paul.

CO-Sen: In yet another example of the perils of Citizens United, Americans United for Life, a non-profit anti-abortion group, is endorsing GOPer Jane Norton. Worry not, circular firing squad enthusiasts, as other pro-life groups endorsing Norton’s more conservative rival Ken Buck are already hitting back promoting Buck as the pro-lifest option.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek, seeking to stanch the bleeding of support to Jeff Greene in the Democratic primary, has released an internal poll showing him leading by the slimmest of margins, 36-35, with 8% going to Maurice Ferre and 20% undecided. Meek has three events planned with the Big Dog in the coming weeks – which isn’t surprising given Meek did endorse Hillary Clinton for President in 2008.

KY-Sen: Braun Research (8/2-4, likely voters):

Jack Conway (D): 31

Rand Paul (R): 41

Undecided: 28

(MoE: ±3.46%)

Braun Research is out with another poll in Kentucky, showing a result consistent with other pollsters of a slight lead for mountain-hater Rand Paul.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle’s Tour de Crazy continues, as she’s now bandying about criticizing gay adoption (which is legal in Nevada) and advocating for the right of religious officials to endorse political candidates – which flies squarely in the face of Section 501(c)(3) of the tax code.

CO-Gov: Former state legislator Tom Wiens – last seen briefly running for the Senate seat currently held by Michael Bennet – may have set his sights on the Governor’s race as a post-primary option given the utter fail of both GOPers on the ballot, Scott “plagiarist” McInnis and Dan “lien collector” Maes. Wiens claims to have already voted for Scott McInnis, but his follow-up statement that “I voted for Scott McInnis and let’s hope things work out” is hardly a ringing endorsement.

MN-Gov: Target’s CEO, Gregg Steinhafel, is apologizing for the company’s recent $150,000 to the shadowy right-wing group Minnesota Forward, which was last seen airing ads in support of the waitstaff-hating, gay-bashing, Christian conservative-cozy GOP nominee, Tom Emmer. The irony in all of this, of course, is that Target is the successor to the Dayton-Hudson Corporation…to which Democratic gube-hopeful Mark Dayton is an heir.

AL-05: With many of their members at risk in November, the Blue Dog Coalition senses an opportunity to add to their ranks here, endorsing Dem nominee Steve Raby. The Blue Dog Coalition goes way back in this northern Alabama district, as Bud Cramer – who held this seat until 2008 – was a co-founder of the coalition.

ID-01: It’s hard to to tell who’s campaign’s been more amusing, Bill Sali’s or Raul Labrador’s. The normally GOP-leaning Idaho Associated General Contractors – who even endorsed Bill Sali in 2008 – are opting for Dem Walt Minnick, even citing Minnick’s opposition to the stimulus as a point of reservation for the group.

TN-08: The dust’s hardly settled from last night’s bloody GOP three-way…primary, which has fortunately allowed Democratic nominee state Sen. Roy Herron to build up a huge financial advantage. Outside groups are stepping in though, with the conservative-leaning 60 Plus Association dropping $240k in ad buys against Herron in the Memphis, Jackson, and Nashville markets.

VA-05: To the disappointment of cat fud lovers everywhere, the teabaggish Jim McKelvey – despite his earlier reluctance – is endorsing the man who beat him in the primary, “moderate” state Sen. Robert Hurt. Fortunately, there’s still the teabagging independent in this race, Jeff Clark.

WA-08: In a major surprise, the Seattle Times has decided not to endorse incumbent GOPer Dave Reichert, criticizing his constant nay-saying. The Times – which has endorsed Reichert in the past – is instead opting for Microsoft exec Suzan DelBene (D) and Expedia senior manager Tim Dillon (R) in Washington’s unusual top two primary.

Polling: Daily Kos, after having fired their pollster Research 2000, is back in the polling game, to the delight of Swingnuts everywhere. While Daily Kos has yet to decide on a national pollster, they’ve settled on the always reliable Public Policy Polling for state-level horserace polling.

Rasmussen:

CA-Gov: Brown (D) 43%, Whitman (R) 41%

MI-Gov: Bernero (D) 37%, Snyder (R) 49%

NC-Sen: Marshall (D) 40%, Burr (R) 49%

The main event of last night was the Republican gubernatorial primary, which ended surprisingly quickly, with a convincing victory by Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam. Haslam, the ostensible ‘moderate’ in the race, benefited from not only his lots of his own money, but also from having the moderate side to himself and a conservative pile-up in opposition (and the fact that Tennessee has no runoffs). He defeated Rep. Zach Wamp and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey 47-29-22. (In one more parallel to the Michigan governor primary, Wamp, who said in his concession speech that “The best candidate doesn’t always win,” can now compete with Rep. Peter Hoekstra as to which one can be the douchiest loser.) Haslam is certainly favored against Dem Mike McWherter in November.

In the House races, there were extremely close GOP primaries in the TN-03 and TN-06 open seats In the 3rd, the somewhat less objectionable Chuck Fleischmann beat former state party chair Robin Smith 30-28. In the 6th, Diane Black won with 31, over fellow state Sen. Jim Tracy and crazed Islamophobe Lou Ann Zelenik (with both at 30). Black faces Dem Brett Carter, who won a similarly close race.

Two other GOP primaries were less close. In TN-08, for the right to face Roy Herron to succeed retiring John Tanner, Stephen Fincher won a surprisingly convincing victory over two self-funders, Ron Kirkland and George Flinn, 48-24-24. And in potential sleeper race TN-04, to face Lincoln Davis, Scott DesJarlais beat Jack Bailey 37-27.

The very last race card may have been played in TN-09. In the third straight slime-covered Dem primary here that was all about race, embarrassing former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton came up woefully short in his quest (predicated almost entirely on Herenton being black and Cohen being white, in a black-majority district) to unseat Rep. Steve Cohen, by a 79-21 margin. Somehow I don’t think this’ll be the last primary Cohen ever sees, but hopefully they’ll be about something other than race in the future.

Finally, the 15 minutes of fame for Basil Marceaux — whose flag has 49 stars because he’ll be dead in the cold cold ground before he recognizes Missourah — seem to be up, as the viral video hero got 0% in the Republican TN-Gov primary and 1% in the TN-03 primary.

12:12am: With all 259 precincts reporting, we are done, and the AP has called Diane Black the winner. She’s at 31, with Zelenik and Tracy at 30. Black beats Zelenik by 813 votes, while Zelenik takes 2nd over Tracy by a mere 15 votes. But there’s no runoff, so it’s academic. Black will face Brett Carter in November, who won the Dem primary 30-29-29 over Barry and Leming. Somewhere in there, too, the AP called TN-04 for Scott DesJarlais, who beat Jack Bailey 37-27 in the end. And with that, we’re done for the night.

11:32pm: Now we’re up to 96% reporting in TN-06. Black has retaken the lead, as I somewhat expected, as Sumner and Trousdale Counties finally came in. She’s at 31, with Zelenik and Tracy at 30. Black’s lead is 800, with only 11 precincts left to report, so I think this’ll hold for her. On the Dem side, it’s very tight too, with Brett Carter at 30, and Barry and Leming both at 29. Carter’s lead is only 158 votes.

11:16pm: Whoa! Late breaking excitement in TN-06. Jim Tracy shoots from 3rd to 1st, while Diane Black falls from 1st to 3rd. It’s now 31 Tracy, 31 Zelenik, 29 Black, with Tracy up by 300, with 88% reporting. Outstanding precincts are in Sumner and Putnam Counties. (Sumner is Black’s base, though, so maybe she can mount a comeback. Rutherford, Zelenik’s base, is through.)

11:13pm: Although, to Marceaux’s credit, he did at least break the 1% mark in TN-03, unlike TN-Gov. (Or, technically, the 0.7% mark.)

11:09pm: The AP has called TN-03 for Chuck Fleischmann. (And not Basil Marceaux, who’s batting 0-for-2 on the night.) Fleischmann beats Robin Smith 30-28, with a margin of 1,300, with 98% reporting. His Democratic opponent in this open seat in November will be J. Wolfe. (No, never heard of him (or her) either.)

10:58pm: In the other close race left that we’re following, in TN-06, with 74% reporting, Diane Black is at 31, with Zelenik and Tracy at 30. (Still.) Black’s lead is up to 800 votes, though.

10:56pm: No call yet in TN-03, but we’re near the end: with 95% reporting, Chuck Fleischmann is adding a little more distance on Robin Smith: 29-28, with a 900-vote margin.

10:34pm: Looks like Scott DesJarlais is going to be the GOP nominee in TN-04. With 74% in, the numbers there are still basically the same; he leads Jack Bailey 35-28.

10:32pm: We’ve jumped to 78% reporting in TN-09, and things are still pretty much the same: Cohen leads Herenton 79-21. Race card fail.

10:25pm: Here’s some interesting symmetry. The Democratic primary in TN-06 is almost equally tight. Bret Carter is in 1st at 31, followed by the previously unheralded H. Barry at 30 and Ben Leming (the guy I think we were supposed to be rooting for) at 28.

10:20pm: To approximately quote Dan Rather, TN-06 is tighter than a tick in a wet bathing suit on a hot day in a Volkswagen Bug full of clowns. With 58% reporting, Diane Black is at 31, with Zelenik and Tracy both at 30. Black’s lead is about 700 votes.

10:13pm: With 84% in, Chuck Fleischmann is just barely starting to pull ahead of Robin Smith in TN-03. They both at 29%, but Fleischmann has a lead of about 500 votes now.

10:09pm: The AP just called TN-08 for Stephen Fincher. With 67% in, Fincher’s at 51, with 25 for Kirkland and 22 for Flinn (who is most definitely not “in”).

10:03pm: The AP is only listing one precinct as reporting in TN-09, but they’ve already called the race. The Steve Cohen 81-19 lead over Willie Herenton still seems to be holding.

10:02pm: Wow, things are a tight three-way in TN-06 also. Black and Zelenik are both at 31, with Tracy at 30. Black’s lead is a mere 90 votes, with 38% reporting.

10:00pm: We’ve rounded the bend in most races now. With 75% reporting, in TN-03, it’s still 30-30 for Smith and Fleischmann. Smith leads by only 38 votes!

9:30pm: Thanks to Johnny Longtorso in comments (and his ability to navigate the awful Shelby Co. Elections website), we know that the 3:1 margin is TN-09 is indeed panning out. Except it’s for Steve Cohen, who leads Willie Herenton 81-19.

9:26pm: And with about 10% in in TN-08, Stephen Fincher is still far ahead, leading to many sighs of relief at 1 NRCC Plaza. Fincher’s at 50, with 28 for Kirkland and 19 for Flinn. (And if you’re wondering about TN-09, still no reports at all from there.)

9:25pm: Things are tightening up in TN-06 R, although only 5% are in, as Zelenik and Tracy counties are reporting more. It’s Black 35, Zelenik 31, Tracy 28.

9:21pm: In TN-04, with about 15% in, Scott DesJarlais leads Jack Bailey 34-28 in the GOP primary. I don’t know anything about these guys, but whoever wins will hope to ride the wave and the “Generic R” slot and hope it gets him over the top against Lincoln Davis.

9:19pm: With 16% reporting, things are still very tight in TN-03. Robin Smith is up 29-28 over Chuck Fleischmann with a 300 vote lead. Tim Gobble is at 18, sadly, meaning we’ll probably never get to see the Gobble-Fudge Act.

9:06pm: The Dem primary in TN-06, in an open seat race that the DCCC (or us) doesn’t seem to have put much stock in, there’s a pretty close race. Bret Carter leads Ben Leming 33-30.

9:03pm: First, let me point in Zach Wamp’s direction and assume my Nelson Muntz voice. HA HA! Now let’s look at the county-by-county results. The only county that Wamp seems to have won is his own county (Hamilton), and the only counties Ramsey seems to have won are is his own (Sullivan) and its immediate neighbor (Johnson). Haslam won everything else that’s reported anything, and that’s all she wrote.

9:00pm: Holy crap, the AP has already called TN-Gov. The big red check mark is next to Bill Haslam’s name. That’s with only 4% reporting. He’s at 52, with 27 for Wamp, 20 for Ramsey, and 0 for Marceaux.

8:58pm: We have only 1% reporting in TN-06, but the numbers seem to match Diane Black’s internal. She’s in the lead at 45, with 26 for Lou Ann Zelenik and 24 for Jim Tracy.

8:55pm: No precincts are reporting in TN-08, but it looks like there are a lot (more than 10,000) of early votes reported. In the GOP primary, humble gospel-singer/agribusiness mogul Stephen Fincher has a big lead at 50, with Ron Kirkland at 32 and George Flinn at 15.

8:52pm: Things are no better in the TN-03 primary. Basil Marceaux is also polling 0% there. It’s a pretty tight race between Robin Smith (at 30) and Chuck Fleischmann (at 28) with Tim Gobble in 3rd at 19. That’s with 2% reporting.

8:49pm: Things are very slow to get started here, but so far, Basil Marceaux is off to a great start here. He’s at 0% in the TN-Gov primary. Bill Haslam is at 53, with Zach Wamp at 27 and Ron Ramsey at 19. But that’s with just 1% reporting so far, so bear in mind there’s still time for all those Marceaux precincts to come in.

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Here’s a question for you all to ponder, as we await results on this very unusual Thursday night edition of liveblogging: Basil Marceaux, as you may know, is somehow on the ballot for both TN-Gov and TN-03. With the expectation, of course, that he wins both of those races in November, which job should he choose? Is federal or state office a more appropriate vehicle for his particular, um, agenda?

Results:

     Associated Press | Politico | TN SoS

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Wisconsin, the badger state, constitutes a perennial battleground state. Like many of its Midwestern neighbors, the state leans Democratic but remains readily willing to vote Republican. While voting for Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama by double-digit margins, the state also came within one percent – twice – of voting for Republican candidate George W. Bush.

These voting patterns have quite interesting historical roots. Indeed, they stretch back for more than a century.

To examine these roots, let’s first take a look at a map of German immigration patterns in 1890:

More below.

This map, derived from the New York Times, graphs the percentage of German-born immigrants in each Wisconsin county from the 1890 census. There is a striking correlation between this map and Wisconsin in the 2004 presidential election:

In that election, Senator John Kerry clung to Wisconsin by a razor-thin 0.4% margin, winning 49.7% of the vote to Mr. Bush’s 49.3%. As this map indicates, counties heavily settled by Germans form the Republican voting base which Mr. Bush relied upon. This pattern persists even more than a century after the height of German immigration.

It is also still quite powerful. Out of the twelve counties with greater than 20% German-born immigrants in 1890, only one (Milwaukee) voted for Mr. Kerry.

There are exceptions, of course – and German settlement patterns do not form the entire picture of Wisconsin’s electoral demography. Milwaukee, for instance, gave 61.7% of its vote to the Massachusetts senator, despite being composed of 38.9% German immigrants in 1890. This is due to its relatively high black population today and corresponding white flight, which depleted the city of its German-American population. Scandinavian settlement patterns in non-German rural Wisconsin, to use another example, account for their Democratic vote today (interestingly, rural Wisconsin constitutes one of the last Democratic bastions in rural America).

Nevertheless, the overall pattern is still quite striking. A more detailed look at Wisconsin in 2004 only strengthens the link:

As is evident, the correlation between German immigration and Wisconsin’s electoral geography finds a resemblance in both degree and strength. The most Republican-voting regions, located along the southeastern portion of the state, also counted themselves highest in German immigrants in 1890.

Finally, this type of demographic analysis can be used to explain why states vote as they do in far more than just Wisconsin. From Democratic strongholds in former cotton-growing areas of the Deep South to South Dakota’s Native-American and Democratic-voting reservations, history offers a fascinating insight into contemporary politics.