Swing State Project

10:24pm: Time to move this party over to a freshly baked thread.

10:24pm: Guess who’s happy in Georgia? Roy Barnes. The GOPers seem possible that they’ll enter into an automatic runoff, with 97% reporting. It’s a 50.5%-49.5% advantage for Nathan Deal.

10:22pm: We’re up to 23% reporting in Minnesota, and things seem to be solidifying: MAK is still in the lead at 46, with Dayton at 36 and Entenza at 17.

10:16pm: No calls yet in CO-03 and CO-07, but Tipton leads McConnell 55-45 and Frazier leads Sias 65-35, not much drama left there.

10:15pm: By contrast, things are spreading a little more in CO-Sen R. Ken Buck now leads 52-48 over Norton.

10:14pm: Uh oh. McInnis has pulled back into the lead in CO-Gov, at least according to the AP. It’s 50-50, with a McInnis lead of 2,000.

10:12pm: Andrew Romanoff has reportedly called Michael Bennet to concede.

10:10pm: Just keep in mind: Georgia has an automatic recount for results within 1%. With 96% reporting, Handel has tightened things a little, to a 50.4%-49.6% race. 4,500 votes separate them.

10:08pm: Here’s a useful tidbit: the AP has called the IP primary in MN-Gov for Tom Horner. I’d heard reports that random GOPers (with no major primary of their own) were thinking of crossing over to sandbag Horner and try to get someone less appealing there, as the center-right Horner seems likelier to spoil things for Emmer than the Dem nominee.

10:07pm: We might also expect a call soon in CT-04 (where Dan Debicella’s at 64%, although only about one-third is reporting) and maybe also CT-05, where 75% is reporting and Caligiuri keeps gaining a little more daylight: he now leads Bernier and Greenberg 41-31-29.

10:03pm: The AP has called the CT-Sen GOP primary for Linda McMahon. She beats Simmons and Schiff 49-29-22. Still not sure I understand Simmons’ gambit, but at this point, it doesn’t matter. Let’s get ready for Blumenthal and McMahon to rumble.

10:01pm: Could Minnesota be another primary that the pollsters all got wrong? With 15% reporting, Margaret Anderson Kelliher is actually adding to her lead. She’s leading the lazy men at 47, with 35 for Dayton and 17 for Entenza.

9:58pm: The AP hasn’t called CO-Sen D, but the Denver Post have, and they probably know their state well. They just called it for Michael Bennet, who will not be joining Bob Bennett in the retirement home.

9:57pm: With ballots going to be counted over the coming days (Washington-style, they’ll count anything with today’s postmark), it may be a while till we know who wins either the R primaries in CO-Gov or CO-Sen. On the Senate side, it’s also Ken Buck 51, Jane Norton 49. For the Dems, it’s Michael Bennet 54, Andrew Romanoff 46.

9:55pm: Switching back to Colorado: it looks like they’re losing a little momentum in the count, as after quickly reaching half they’re only at 56% reporting now statewide. In the Gov GOP primary, Dan Maes still has a 51-49 lead over Scott McInnis.

9:54pm: I know you were on pins and needles about the wingnut-vs-wingnut duel in GA-07. The AP has called it in favor of former John Linder CoS Rob Woodall, 55-45, over Jody Hice.

9:52pm: We’re closing in on done in Georgia. (Apparently the Fulton County website is the one that’s right, and 75% there have reported.) Overall, 93% are in, and we’re still not close to knowing who won GA-Gov R. Deal still leads Handel 51-49, with a 7,000 vote lead out of more than 500K.

9:50pm: In CT-05, Sam Caligiuri is picking up a little speed. He’s at 40, vs. 30 each for Bernier and Greenberg, with about one-third reporting.

9:49pm: I wonder how Rob Simmons would be doing if he hadn’t done the weird Ross Perot-style angry dropout and half-assed return? Although it’s looking like Linda McMahon will win comfortably, Simmons plus Peter Schiff are keeping her below the halfway mark: 48-30-22.

9:47pm: It’ll be a while till we get a call in the GOP gube race in CT. Fedele’s definitely keeping things interesting, having had a late surge of his own. He’s at 37 to Foley’s 43, with 20 for Griebel.

9:45pm: The Hartford Courant is reporting that Ned Lamont has conceded the gubernatorial primary. (Guess who’s heaving a sigh of relief? Joe Lieberman.) And the AP just called the race, too. It’s 58-42 Malloy, with a little less than half reporting.

9:44pm: A little weirdness to note in Fulton County, Georgia. Their county website say they’re reporting 75% in, but they only have a few thousand more votes reported than according to the AP… and the AP says Fulton is only 21% reporting. We’ll have to see how this resolves itself.

9:42pm: We’re up to 2% in in MN-Gov’s DFL primary now, and things have switched here too. Kelliher’s now in the lead at 44, with Dayton at 33 and Kelliher at 22. A lot of Ramsey Co. (St. Paul) votes have come in, and they’re going for MAK by a wide margin.

9:40pm: Sad news for rematch fans. In GA-13 (not an interesting race, except for Base Connect enthusiasts), Deborah “The Defrauder” Honeycutt has lost her GOP runoff. The AP calls it for Mike Crane, 68-32; Crane will face David Scott in this safe Dem district.

9:39pm: There’s also those wee House races in Colorado. In CO-07’s GOP primary, Ryan Frazier seems to have this under control, beating Lang Sias 65-35 with more than half in. And with about a quarter in, Scott Tipton is way ahead of Bob McConnell, 58-42.

9:37pm: Also in Colorado, where we’ve shot past 50% reporting (to 56), things have swapped around in the Senate race. Ken Buck now leads Jane Norton, by a narrow 51-49 (133K to 127K), and Michael Bennet now leads Andrew Romanoff by a more convincing 54-46 (129K to 109K).

9:35pm: As things progress in Colorado, Dan Maes is starting to pull into the lead in the GOP gube primary. He leads Scott McInnis 52-48. That’s extremely good news, as Maes won’t drop out (while McInnis might, allowing a salvageable replacement) and will see this through to the bitter end.

9:32pm: The CT-04 GOP primary isn’t too remarkable (Dan Debicella is at 62% against two Some Dudes), but CT-05 is a three-way barnburner. Sam Caligiuri currently has a small edge, with 20% reporting. He leads Justin Bernier and Mark Greenberg 37-33-30.

9:30pm: Meanwhile, on the GOP side in Connecticut, Tom Foley is keeping his edge; he leads Michael Fedele and Oz Griebel 45-36-19. (Griebel, as the least known but also apparently least objectionable of the three, also seems to be overperforming.)

9:28pm: Dan Malloy is starting to put a little distance between him and Ned Lamont in the Connecticut governor’s Dem primary. Malloy now leads 58-42 with 28% reporting. Looks like Malloy’s way overperforming the polls, although the polls did capture his late surge.

9:25pm: We finally have some numbers in Minnesota, although it’s only a fraction of a percent of precincts reporting, from bellwether Anoka and Dakota Cos. in the MSP suburbs. Mark Dayton is at 43, with Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 36 and Matt Entenza at 20.

9:23pm: Insert Dan Ratherism here about the closeness of the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff. Nathan Deal leads Karen Handel 51-49 with 79% in, with about a 9,000 vote margin out of over 450,000 cast.

9:21pm: Looks like we have a few AP calls down in the Peach State. Tom Graves will get to stay in the House for another two years without having to face Lee Hawkins again; Graves wins GA-09 56-44. And in GA-12, Ray McKinney will get to take his nuclear power plant project management skills to the general election against John Barrow; he defeated Carl Smith 62-38. No call in GA-07 yet, although Rob Woodall leads Jody Hice 55-45 with about two-thirds in.

9:19pm: We’re racking up the numbers pretty quickly in Colorado now. Over in the Governor’s GOP primary, with almost 20% in, McInnis leads Maes by less than 1,000 votes, at 51-49.

9:11pm: Quite a few votes are reporting in Colorado, and Romanoff leads Bennet by 51-49 with 14% of precincts in. Norton leads Buck by 54-46 so far.

9:09pm: We’re at 70% reporting in GA, and Deal leads Handel by 237,146 to 229,295.

C’mon baby, let’s go!

---

RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico

9:01pm: Now that MN and CO are closed, let’s move this party over here.

8:55pm: 64% in, and Deal leads by 212,126 to 201,445.

8:50pm: Fulton County fans should know that they have their own results website, featuring a mind-bogglingly annoying auto-scroll feature. Enjoy!

8:47pm: So we’re up to 61% reporting in GA, and Deal leads Handel by 194,074 to 185,254.

8:44pm: Back in Connecticut, Malloy leads Lamont by 57-43 with about 10% in. Foley is up on Fedele by 46-45. Janet Peckinpaugh leads Daria Novak by 43-37 in the 2nd, and Caligiuri leads Greenberg by only 35-33 in the 5th.

8:37pm: 54% reporting in GA, and Deal’s lead has closed to 168,784-162,623.

8:26pm: We’re now at 43% reporting in Georgia, and Deal now leads Handel by 123,489 votes to 114,045. Deal’s keeping his 4% lead steady.

8:21pm: Over in the Nutmeg state, Foley leads Fedele by 46-34 with 2% of town precincts reporting. Malloy is up by 56-44 over Lamont, and McMahon has a 48-27-25 lead over Simmons and Schiff. In the 5th CD, Sam Caligiuri has a 36-32-32 lead over businessman Mark Greenberg and Afganistan vet Justin Bernier.

8:18pm: We’re up to 34% reporting in GA, and Nathaniel Deal is holding onto a 83,957-77,554 lead.

8:10pm: Deal is now leading by a full 4%, 72,107 to 66,595, with 31% reporting. Handel’s even losing Gwinnett County narrowly to Deal, which she won by a large spread back in July.

8:09pm: If you’d like to compare tonight’s results to the first round of voting, check out this handy table of county results.

8:05pm: Again, this seems to be a rare night where the Associated Press (and, therefore, the Politico) are getting lapped by the Georgia SoS. With 28% in, Deal now leads by 56,437-53,131 (3%).

8:03pm: So back to GA: Deal now sports a 48,814-46,354 lead over Handel with 26% in.

8:02pm: Polls have now closed in Connecticut.

7:57pm: Look out! Deal just took a 0.6% lead, according to the SoS. 24% of precincts are now reporting.

7:53pm: The crew over at SSP Labs is still setting up the mainframe, but we should get some projections to you once the boys in the long white coats are good and ready.

7:52pm: Deal’s now pulled even (according to the SoS office), trailing Handel by just over 40 votes, 24,739-24,693. 18% reporting.

7:48pm: In the House races, Rob Woodall leads Jody Hice by 10% in GA-07, incumbent Tom Graves leads Screamin’ Lee Hawkins by 14% in GA-09, and Ray McKinney leads Carl Smith 10% in GA-12. Oh, and Deborah Honeycutt is getting thrashed by Mike Crane in the 13th.

7:46pm: Handel now leads by just under 1000 votes (2.6%) with 15% of precincts reporting.

7:35pm: It’s now 9,630 Handel, 8,899 Deal (a 4% lead) with 9% of precincts reporting, according to the SoS. Only 1% of e-day votes have been counted so far, though.

7:20pm: We’re up to 3% reporting (according to the SoS office), and Handel’s lead over Deal is now 2,240-2,052 (that’s 52%-48%).

7:13pm: The GA SoS has our first taste of results for the night, with Handel leading Deal by a mere 28 votes.

Polls have now closed in Georgia, and SSP Headline News will be using this thread to follow the returns. Connecticut closes at 8pm Eastern and Minnesota and Colorado close at 9pm Eastern. We’ll touch base with those states later.

---

RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico

This is the last part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state Virginia, which aims to offer some concluding thoughts. The previous parts can be found starting here.

Conclusions

As a state, Virginia’s population has always been located in three metropolitan areas: the Northern Virginia suburbs south of Washington D.C., Richmond and its suburbs, and the communities surrounding Hampton Roads. Together these three places compose more than half of Virginia’s electorate:

In all three metropolitan areas, Democrats have been improving their margins.

More below.

Virginia’s suburbs, expansive and traditionally Republican, have shifted leftwards with startling quickness. This movement has been most apparent in the largest of its suburbs, rich and diverse Northern Virginia. The addition of NoVa to Virginia’s heavily Democratic, heavily black cities has given the Democratic Party a coalition that has won a number of recent elections.

Not everything has gone badly for the Republican Party. They have captured a formerly loyal Democratic constituency – the Appalachian west, which voted Democratic based on economic appeals. Moreover, they still dominate the rural whites who in bygone days voted Democratic:

Thus, Virginia today is a state in change, like most states. Parts of it are shifting left and parts of it are shifting right; in aggregate, the effect has been to change it from a solidly Republican to swing state. Undoubtedly, other states will and are moving in the opposite direction.

Colorado, the next state in this series, is probably not one of those Republican-shifting states.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

GOPVOTER made a query about this data earlier and though this diary is intended for him I’m sure it proves to be a useful resource for everyone here at SSP.

We all know turnout from Republicans will be up and Democrats down from two years ago, the question is how much? Personally, I’ve been working under the assumption, based on the fact the change in New Jersey (competitive right until the end last November, unlike Virginia) was a six-point movement in favor of the GOP, of adding three to the Republican number and taking three from the Democratic number. Obviously it won’t be uniform like that but I think it a decent average by which to view the likely electorate this fall.

From left to right, Democrats, Republicans, Independents.

2004

Alabama

34-48-18

Alaska

19-41-40

Arizona

30-44-26

Arkansas

41-31-29

California

39-33-27

Colorado

29-38-33

Connecticut

37-30-33

Delaware

41-32-26

Florida

37-41-23

Georgia

34-42-24

Hawaii

40-24-36

Idaho

22-50-27

Illinois

39-34-27

Indiana

32-46-22

Iowa

34-36-30

Kansas

27-50-23

Kentucky

44-40-17

Louisiana

42-40-18

Maine

31-30-38

Maryland

48-30-22

Massachusetts

39-16-44

Michigan

39-34-27

Minnesota

38-35-27

Mississippi

38-47-15

Missouri

35-36-29

Montana

32-39-29

Nebraska

24-53-22

Nevada

35-39-26

New Hampshire

25-32-44

New Jersey

39-31-30

New Mexico

40-33-27

New York

45-29-26

North Carolina

39-40-21

North Dakota

27-41-32

Ohio

35-40-25

Oklahoma

40-43-16

Oregon

32-34-34

Pennsylvania

41-39-20

Rhode Island

39-16-45

South Carolina

33-44-23

South Dakota

32-47-21

Tennessee

32-40-28

Texas

32-43-24

Utah

19-58-24

Vermont

31-27-41

Virginia

35-39-26

Washington

36-32-33

West Virginia

50-32-18

Wisconsin

35-38-27

Wyoming

25-53-22

2008

Alabama

37-45-18

Alaska

20-37-43

Arizona

32-39-30

Arkansas

36-32-31

California

42-30-28

Colorado

30-31-39

Connecticut

43-27-31

Delaware

48-31-21

Florida

37-34-29

Georgia

38-35-28

Hawaii

45-20-34

Idaho

24-48-28

Illinois

47-28-26

Indiana

36-41-24

Iowa

34-33-33

Kansas

26-49-25

Kentucky

47-38-15

Louisiana

42-38-21

Maine

35-26-39

Maryland

51-28-21

Massachusetts

43-17-40

Michigan

41-29-29

Minnesota

40-36-25

Mississippi

40-45-15

Missouri

40-34-26

Montana

33-33-35

Nebraska

29-48-22

Nevada

38-30-32

New Hampshire

29-27-45

New Jersey

44-28-28

New Mexico

44-28-28

New York

50-26-25

North Carolina

42-31-27

North Dakota

28-38-33

Ohio

39-31-30

Oklahoma

41-44-14

Oregon

36-27-37

Pennsylvania

44-37-18

Rhode Island

42-16-42

South Carolina

38-41-20

South Dakota

36-42-22

Tennessee

32-33-35

Texas

33-34-33

Utah

21-50-29

Vermont

37-23-39

Virginia

39-33-27

Washington

36-26-39

West Virginia

48-34-19

Wisconsin

39-33-29

Wyoming

26-52-22

• AK-Sen: You might have seen mention at other sites of a Tea Party Express “poll” of the GOP Senate primary in Alaska that had Joe Miller within 9 points of Lisa Murkowski. Mother Jones has been digging around, trying to find the poll, and can find no confirmation of its existence or even word of who took the poll, from either the Miller campaign or TPE.

• CO-Sen: Jane Norton’s closing argument wasn’t about how great she was, but rather about her “concerns” with Ken Buck. Her interview with Politico this morning alluded to his “issues with spending and ethics.”

• IL-Sen: If all else fails, try tying your opponent to Saddam Hussein. That’s what Mark Kirk’s attempting, with an ad that accuses Broadway Bank of having made a 2006 loan to an Iraqi businessman with some sort of Hussein connections. Alexi Giannoulias pointed out that was after he’d already left the bank, but I think a better argument would be that Saddam Hussein was played in South Park Bigger Longer & Uncut by Matt Stone, who was in Baseketball with Greg Grunberg, who was in Hollow Man with Kevin Bacon.

• LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon is out with his very first TV ad, as he and GOP candidate Chet Traylor try to put the squeeze on David Vitter from both directions. The ad (NWOTSOTB for $115K) launches a direct hit on how Vitter “hasn’t been honest.”

• PA-Sen: Pat Toomey is out with yet another TV ad, a negative ad against opponent Joe Sestak. Their only word on the size of the buy is “significant.” The Toomey campaign has been on the air with at least five different ads for a month now, without seeming to budge the poll numbers at all. Sestak hasn’t hit the TV airwaves yet, and seems to, as was the case with his successful primary bid, marshalling his resources for a large salvo closer to the election.

• KS-Gov: Wow, check out the opponent Sam Brownback dispatched in the GOP gubernatorial primary, if you’re in the mood for serious nutjobbery. Joan Heffington alleges “CIA infiltration of western Kansas” and has faced sanctions for practicing law without a license. At any rate, having garnered 15% in the GOP primary, she’s now saying she’s a GDI (God-driven independent) and shouldn’t have gotten suckered into that whole Republican racket in the first place, and as such is launching a write-in candidacy for November.

• MI-Gov: You may remember state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, who pulled the plug on her gubernatorial candidacy on the day of the filing deadline, saying she didn’t want to split the progressive vote (and thus giving a big boost to Lansing mayor and eventual primary winner Virg Bernero). Probably figuring that Bernero owes her big-time and also that he’d like some diversity on the ticket, Smith is now floating her own name for the Lt. Governor slot.

• NY-Gov: GOP gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino has gone ahead and pulled the trigger on creating his own ballot line, the Taxpayers Party. It still remains a completely open question as to whether he plans to run on it if he loses the GOP primary, though. (He originally said he wouldn’t be a spoiler in the race against Andrew Cuomo, but then changed to an “options open” position.)

• IL-10: Dan Seals got apparently re-endorsed by the Illinois Federation of Teachers today. (He also had their backing in the Dem primary against Julie Hamos.)

• IL-11: Rep. Debbie Halvorson didn’t start out near the top of anyone’s list of vulnerable Democrats, but she’s starting to earn her position there. Republican opponent Adam Kinzinger has issued a second internal poll (the first one was in March) giving him a lead over Halvorson. The poll from POS gives him a 51-40 edge. (The article, however, helpfully points out that POS saw Halvorson with only a 2-point lead over the hapless Marty Ozinga six weeks before the election in 2008, a race which she went on to win by 24. Update: In 2008, we wrote about that POS poll here.)

• IN-02: Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly, no stranger to occasional use of conservative framing, goes an extra step in his new TV ad hating on those immigrants, using a photo of Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama when saying how he stands apart from “the Washington crowd.” John Boehner’s lurking in the photo’s background, too, so at least it’s bipartisan.

• KS-01: Wow, SurveyUSA sure likes polling KS-01, probably one of the likeliest races in the country to stay red. (Or at least KWCH-TV sure likes paying them to poll it.) They find Republican state Sen. Tim Huelskamp, who just won the primary, leading Dem Alan Jilka 65-23. (Jilka is a former mayor of Salina, which may actually make him a pretty big ‘get’ as far as this hopeless district goes.)

• NH-02: When is a lobbyist not a lobbyist? It turns out that Katrina Swett, who has denied (gasp) lobbying, in fact filled out the required federal paperwork in 1997 to register as a lobbyist, although now her defense is that she never actually got around to lobbying once she registered. Swett has previously been attacking Dem primary foe Ann McLane Kuster for her own previous lobbying work.

• TX-17: Rep. Chet Edwards got a key endorsement in this dark-red, largely rural Texas district: he got the backing of the NRA. It may seem odd to see so many conservaDems getting NRA backing, but the NRA’s policy is where there are two equally pro-gun candidates, the incumbent gets the nod.

• WV-01: Alan Mollohan 2.0? The man is actually talking like he’s eyeing a 2012 comeback, having filed FEC paperwork setting up a 2012 candidacy (although it’s unclear whether that was just to have a fundraising receptacle for donors’ funds to repay a personal loan to his committee). He also just issued a long memo to supporters, bashing, well, everyone, ranging from Republican House members who pursued ethics complaints against him while they were in charge, to Mike Oliverio, who he says defeated him in this year’s Dem primary using those discredited charges.

• Census: Next time a Republican complains to you about the ineffective, bloated government, point him in the direction of the Census, which just came in $1.6 billion under budget (out of a total $14.7 billion appropriated) as it wraps up its main phase. A solid 72% initial response rate helped save money on the inevitable follow-up process.

• Passages: Sadly, today we bid farewell to Ted Stevens, the long-serving Republican Senator from Alaska and chronicler of the inner workings of the series of tubes. Stevens died last night in a plane crash near the town of Dillingham, at the age of 86. Stevens was the survivor of a previous 1978 plane crash, which killed his first wife. We offer our best wishes to his friends and family.

• Rasmussen:

• IA-Sen: Roxanne Conlin (D) 35%, Chuck Grassley (R-inc) 55%

• IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth (D) 29%, Dan Coats (R) 50%

• NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 50%, John Stephen (R) 39%

Since the Republicans already control Pennsylvania’s state senate, and they have a decent shot at picking up the trifecta in 2010, I decided to create a map which should yield at least 13, and possibly 14, Republicans. Although not every district is maintained in its present form, every Republican incumbent has at least one district that has some portion of their base. In the process, I completely demolished Holden’s district, and gave most Democratic incumbents plenty of unfamiliar areas to deal with. I did not split any municipalities except when creating majority-minority districts, and the highest deviation from the mean in terms of population is 855.

Entire State:

Metro Philadelphia:

Districts are numbered in the order that they were created, since Pennsylvania’s current numbering system makes no sense anyway.

PA-1 (Blue in Metro Philly):

This district is 51% black and effectively serves as a votesink in North Philly, taking in pretty much all of the black and Hispanic areas and expanding north to pick up Cheltenham and Abingdon in MontCo, which are very heavily D as well. Chaka Fattah would run here.

PA-2 (Green in Metro Philly):

This one would most likely be Bob Brady’s district. It’s 49% black in order to maintain the status quo with the VRA, but at the same time pick up as many black voters as possible (see the arm that goes into Chester). The most Democratic parts of the Main Line also get put in here, such as Lower Merion, Haverford and Radnor (the home of Villanova).

PA-3 (Deep Purple):

It’s always sunny in this district, which was created with one goal in mind: link together all of Philly’s white working class areas, in the hopes (for the GOP) of a demographic avalanche. The MontCo parts of this district lean Democratic, and it’s more than possible for a Democrat to win here, but the GOP has a better chance in the long-term than in any of the present-day suburban districts, all of which seem to be trending away from them. (If this district does elect a Democrat, there will still only be five in the state, which the Republicans would definitely accept.)

PA-4 (Red):

To my knowledge, it’s tradition of some sort to keep all of Bucks County in the same district, which benefits the Republicans as Obama did the worst here out of all the suburban counties (even Chester). All I’ve done is just attach some of the more reflexively GOP rural areas west of Allentown, which is just about all that can be done if you don’t split municipalities.

PA-5 (Mustard Yellow):

This district is what’s left of the current PA-13 after all of the most D parts in southern Montgomery are taken out and very conservative areas in Berks (away from Reading) and Lebanon are added. With the new additions and removal of just about everything south-east of Norristown, it’s tough to imagine the Democrats holding this one.

PA-6 (Teal):

This district was designed with one of two scenarios in mind: if Pat Meehan wins in November, he would run in this new district – if he can win in the current PA-7, adding rural York County would make him safe – and Platts would run in the new PA-12 which contains Harrisburg suburbs that he’s represented before, while if Meehan loses, the somewhat sane Platts can afford to take on a bit of DelCo, which isn’t that Democratic anyway with the removal of Chester and the Main Line. Either way, it’s pretty safe Republican.

PA-7 (Gray):

This is Gerlach’s district, assuming he survives. He’s won before with a district containing Reading, Lower Merion and various other Democratic hotbeds, so he should probably keep overperforming and romp home in a district that contains too much Lancaster for the Dems to realistically compete in. (If Gerlach loses, Pitts can run here if he wants, but he might prefer my new PA-8.)

PA-8 (Indigo):

In order to neutralize the cities of Lancaster and York, which have more minorities and are more Democratic than one might first think, I attached them to some of the most uniformly GOP turf in the state: Franklin and Adams Counties and the rural areas of Cumberland. Considering those areas vote 70%+ for Republican candidates year in and year out, and they comprise about half of the district, I’d call this safe for the GOP.

PA-9 (Light Blue):

This district was created with Charlie Dent in mind, and considering the fact that he has survived in a district that Kerry won and Obama cleaned up in, getting one like this would be a dream for him. He is relieved of Allentown and Bethlehem and instead gets places like Susquehanna and Bradford Counties that are still very Republican. (If Dent loses this year, this district would be doable for the Dems to hold, but it would be a lot tougher than the current PA-15.)

PA-10 (Pink):

Well, northeastern PA has gotten Democratic enough that one safe D votesink is pretty much inevitable in a GOP map, and I made that seat about as safe (and as convoluted) as possible. Allentown, Bethlehem, the most Democratic parts of the Poconos, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre and all of the blue towns in between go into this district, and what comes out is something that vaguely resembles the letter E that Obama might have cleared 60%, if not 65%, in. Since Chris Carney seems to be the Northeast PA Dem most likely to win (I know, I can’t believe it either), I’ll provisionally award the seat to him, but if both him and Kanjorski survive, the two would probably fight over it.

PA-11 (Lime):

I already neutralized Lancaster and York, and I’ll do the same to Reading, which is too Democratic to go in any of the Philly suburban districts in a GOP map. If Holden ran anywhere, it would probably be here, as this district contains most of his Schuylkill base. However, it also contains parts of the Susquehanna Valley that are not in his district and have few Dems outside of Lewisburg (Bucknell) and Selinsgrove (Susquehanna). If Barletta wins, he would have the option of running here (this district contains Columbia County, which is part of the current PA-11, and his home in Hazleton is just a few miles away and can easily be drawn in). Otherwise, it’s up for grabs to whichever local officeholder wants it.

PA-12 (Periwinkle):

The Harrisburg area isn’t that Democratic in the grand scheme of things, and linking it to astonishingly GOP areas to the west (Fulton, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata and Perry are all 60%+ McCain and make up about half of the district) does no favours for the Democrats. Neither does Altoona, which McCain actually won. State College is in this district as well, but it’s too small to make a difference by itself. I guess Holden could run here, but once again he’s facing areas that he’s never represented before. (If Platts doesn’t run here, Shuster will.)

PA-13 (Clay):

Instead of just sitting there in the Northern Tier taking up space, I decided to put the old PA-5 to some good use, having it eat some of Holden’s district and some of the State College area. The swing areas of the Northern Tier (Lock Haven, Elk County) are just too badly outnumbered by the GOP rural areas and wilderness for a Democrat to win this district, with counties like Warren, McKean, Potter and Tioga going pretty heavily for the GOP in just about every election.

PA-14 (Green-Brown):

A rare instance in which my numbering scheme overlaps with the scheme already in place, this district grabs just about every Democrat from the Pittsburgh area that I could get while maintaining equal population. So, basically, just like the current PA-14.

PA-15 (Orange):

This would be Dahlkemper’s district, which starts in Erie and heads on over to heavily Republican Blair County, minus Altoona. The connecting areas, Venango, Clarion and Indiana Counties, also are quite Republican, and are new to Dahlkemper so she would have to introduce herself to her district all over again.

PA-16 (Nuclear Waste Green):

This would be Altmire’s district. As with Dahlkemper, I gave him a whole lot more Republicans who previously weren’t in his district (such as those in Butler County, which is about as red as a flaming brick being eaten by a fire truck).

PA-17 (Navy Blue):

I’m guessing Tim Murphy could run in this district in which McCain won every county fragment. Not much more to say about it, though.

PA-18 (Canary Yellow):

This distrct would probably be Critz’s, although I have given him almost all of GOP Westmoreland County, plus all of even more GOP Somerset and Bedford. (By creating the Western PA districts how I did, I completely broke up the Murthamander.) Shuster would run here if all other options are taken.

So there you have it. A map of a state which Obama won by 10% in which a maximum 14 of 18 representatives are Republicans.

(Cross-posted at ML, BFM, and WMR-pb)

Since early 2009, the Tea Party movement has gained an enormous amount of media attention. While claiming to be a non-partisan movement, the Tea Party is remarkably consistent with some of the core constituencies at the heart of Republican Party since the late 1960s. In particular, the themes commonly evoked by Tea Party participants (economic libertarianism, fervent individualism, and deep distrust of any governmental intervention) largely mirror the platform of Republican Representative Ron Paul’s 2008 candidacy for the GOP presidential nomination. Indeed, many organizers of Paul’s campaign and leaders in the Young American for Freedom (YAF) were behind many of the early Tea Party events in 2009.

The rise of the Tea Party movement represents in part a return of many conservative libertarians to the GOP. The candidacy of Barry Goldwater in 1964 did much to bring libertarians into the Republican Party, were they largely remained for following four decades. During his second term, George W. Bush was responsible for driving some libertarians out, as many became extremely disenchanted with the Republican Party’s focus on social issues and increased governmental expansion. While not abandoning the Republican Party entirely, a sizable percentage of libertarians voted from Democratic candidates in 2006 and 2008 for reasons similar to those voiced in blogger Markos Moulitsas’s 2006 Cato Unbound article.

Thus, the Tea Party movement should be viewed as a campaign bus returning disenchanted Republicans to an active role in the GOP. As numerous polls show, members of the movement are overwhelming conservative, white, older, well off, and evangelical Protestant in religious identity. The overriding narrative should not be that the Tea Party is a bunch of angry independents ready to forge an independent political movement, but rather that libertarians will be an active participant in the ideological battles within in the Republican Party following the November 2010 elections that will likely last until the end of the 2012 GOP Presidential primary.

Of course, American politics are decided at the ballot box, not at Ron Paul forums. The 2010 Michigan State House and State Senate primaries offer a good perspective on whether the Tea Party movement will be able to translate its message resurgent libertarianism into political success.

I identified the candidates running in the Republican or Democratic primary for the State House (508 total) and the State Senate (164 total), and used the endorsements from the Republican Liberty Caucus (RLC) and the Independence Caucus (IC) to determined if candidates could be considered authentic supporters of the Tea Party Movement. The RLC has long been a libertarian action group within the Republican Party. Founded in 1991, the RLC’s website states that it strongly supports “individual rights, limited government and free enterprise,” hallmarks of conservative libertarianism. The IC was created in 2008 by supporters of Jason Chaffetz, a libertarian Republican who defeated long-time Republican Congressman Chris Cannon in Utah’s 3rd Congressional District. The IC’s website also supports libertarian principles, including “limited government, fiscal responsibility, and constitutional authority.” I used the endorsements from the RLC and IC to determine a candidate’s adherence to the Tea Party movement since many candidates, while stating vague solidarity, at heart want to run away from being associated with the conservative libertarian principles of the movement.

As shown in the linked Google document, both the RLC and IC endorsed a number of candidates in the 2010 primary. 25 State House and 12 State Senate candidates were endorsed by either the RLC or the IC, and four (two in the State House and two in the State Senate) were endorsed by both groups. All candidates were Republicans, and two were GOP incumbents in the State House (David Agema-74th and Bob Genetski-88th).

The Tea Party candidates had a lousy record in state house primary races. Of the 25 candidates in State House primaries, five did not face a primary challenge (including Agema and Genteski). However, only Agema and Genteski are likely to head to Lansing after November 2010, as the three challengers are in districts that are either safely Democratic (Bret Allen-29th and Chase Ingersoll-53rd) or have a strong Democratic incumbent (Steven Mobley-62nd). The remaining 20 candidates faced competitive primaries, resulting in only two Tea Party candidates winning the Republican nomination. One winner (Cynthia Kallgren-13th) is a sure loser this November, leaving Lori Levi (District 21) as the only non-incumbent Tea Party candidate who has a legitimate shot at winning.

Why did the remaining 18 Tea Party candidates lose their primaries? One (Dave Ryan-103rd) signed a financial waiver, dooming himself to sure defeat with promising not to raise more than $1,000 for the entire election cycle. While nearly all of the candidates provided personal loans to support their campaigns, many Tea Party candidates were simply unable to raise the money to compete successfully in the primary. Only 10 candidates raised more than $10,000 during the pre-primary filing period, and only five were able to raise more than $10,000 without personal loans to carry them over to the top. Thus, a large number of Tea Party candidates simply starved for a lack of funding.

Three races in Kent County are instructive to the struggle that Tea Party candidates faced in the 2010 primary season. Two of the races (Eric Larson-72nd and Jordan Bush-75th) featured aggressive first-time candidates who ran against more moderate Republicans who raised more traditional GOP themes. While Larson had an overwhelming financial advantage he lost to Ken Yonker by a narrow margin, a defeat that some say was caused by his over-reliance on direct mail and Yonker’s out-hustling him door-to-door. Bush faced a more uphill struggle against Goei, who had a financial advantage and establishment support, and while connecting well in his Alger Heights neighborhood and portions of the 2nd Ward, did not connect with voters in the Calvin Ghetto (east of Plymouth Street, south of Hall Street). In the 86th District, Walker Mayor Rob Ver Heulen lost to Lisa Lyons, daughter of former GOP State Senator Dick Posthumus, in a classic west/east side battle that once again, the more populated east side one. Lyons’ membership in the Posthumus political dynasty did not hurt, nor did the fact that candidates John Schwartz and Kimberly Cummings help divide up the Republican vote outside of Lyons’ political base in Ada Township and Lowell.

In the State Senate, a somewhat more mixed picture appears. The RLC and IC parted ways and endorsed opposing candidates in the 7th and 30th State Senate districts, with the IC supported candidate winning in the 7th (Patrick Colbeck) and the RLC candidate victorious in the 30th (Arlan Meekhof). Meekhof will win easily in November, while Colbeck will likely be in the crosshairs in an extremely competitive swing district. While 7th District Democratic candidate Kathleen Law is flawed in so many ways, the presence of former Republican John Stewart as an independent candidate could steal a large number of moderate Republican votes from Colbeck. This will be a race to watch in November. Kyle Haubrich was unopposed in the 23rd District GOP primary, and will be defeated handily in November by Democratic Senator Gretchen Whitmer.

Of the remaining seven Tea Party candidates with primaries, only David Hildenbrand (District 29) won. Hildenbrand is a sitting State Representative with strong conservative backing from his Lowell-based district, and will face strong general election opponent in former Grand Rapids City Commissioner David LaGrand. The remaining six faced challenges similar to those faced by their state house counterparts: low fundraising numbers and opposition from the GOP establishment.

Will the Tea Party movement have a future in Michigan politics past November 2010? I suspect that there will be no more than two Tea Party-endorsed members in both the Michigan State Senate and State House. However, the ideological battle within the Michigan Republican Party will continue unabated in the coming two years, particularly if GOP gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder is elected. Of all the GOP candidates, Snyder is the one that raised the more ire among Tea Party supporters in Michigan, who seem him as the second coming of William Milliken. It will be fascinating to see how Snyder campaigns as a moderate while keeping the Tea Party movement within the GOP. Regardless, I am sure John Yob will play a role.  

There’s been a whole lot of OMG! today online about a new polling memo from Republican pollster POS on behalf of American Crossroads, the new one-stop-shopping Karl Rove 527 emporium for attack ads, message testing, and the like. Taegan Goddard, in particular, seems to have fallen prey to the way the memo is deviously worded, titling a post “Senate Up For Grabs?” and saying the poll “shows Republican U.S. Senate candidates averaging a high single-digit lead over their Democratic opponents in 13 states with close races — suggesting Democrats might lose control of the chamber in this fall’s elections.”

Um, yeah. Except that’s not 13 Democratic-held seats. The poll is of five GOP-held seats and eight Dem-held seats, but without topline numbers for any seat. It’s a poll of smaller-than-useful samples in a bunch of different competitive races, globbed together into bigger numbers. The numbers still seem outlandish at first, with a 45-37 advantage for the GOP in the GOP-held seats, and a 47-40 advantage for the GOP in Dem-held seats. But then, looking a little deeper, you notice that those Dem-held seats include Arkansas, Delaware, and Indiana, where the GOP currently has large leads, tipping the scales’ balance against the Dems in those other Dem-held seats.

To unpack this, I looked at today’s Pollster.com rolling averages of each of these races, and averaged those out within each category to see what it looks like. For instance, for their five GOP-held seats, you have FL-Sen (using Meek vs. Rubio) at 15-32, KY-Sen at 43-45, MO-Sen at 44-48, NH-Sen (using Hodes vs. Ayotte) at 39-48, and OH-Sen at 41-43. That averages out to a 36-43 deficit for the Dems in those races altogether, not much different from POS’s 37-45 figure. And in the eight Dem-held seats, there’s AR-Sen at 34-57, CO-Sen (using Bennet vs. Buck) at 43-45, DE-Sen at 36-50, IL-Sen at 42-41, IN-Sen at 31-50, NV-Sen at 45-43, PA-Sen at 41-45, and WA-Sen at 49-47. That averages out to a 40-47 GOP advantage… remarkably, the exact same number that POS comes up with.

So my response to all this is: so what? If you go by the Pollster.com averages (and I wouldn’t necessarily, as these are heavily determined by Rasmussen numbers and rely heavily on the large disparity between Rasmussen and other pollsters in OH, PA, and CO), they show Dems poised to lose six seats (throwing in ND-Sen, so far gone that they didn’t bother polling it)… and gain one, assuming Charlie Crist dances with them that brung him and caucuses with the Dems… which would be a Rasmussen-style-worst-case-scenario net loss of five. Which is simply no different from what any other prognosticator, including us, would expect. So Karl Rove’s The Math (TM) looks like it may actually be correct for the moment… but is it telling us anything that we don’t already know?

• CO-Sen (D): The Democratic heavyweights are out in this marquee race on our side in Colorado, splitting between appointed incumbent and former Denver Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet and Colorado House speaker Andrew Romanoff. Obama’s recorded a robocall for Bennet, while the Big Dog’s been stumping for Romanoff (who, yes, endorsed Hillary in 2008). While Romanoff’s bid seemed quixotic at first, he’s managed to gain some traction, with the most recent polling in the race offering a split decision, with PPP saying Bennet 49-43 and SurveyUSA saying Romanoff 48-45. Much hay was made about Bennet’s accidental incumbency, and the newest scuttle in the race takes the form of Bennet’s financial dealings while Superintendent. While that news may have broken a little late, Romanoff still has the momentum — but will it be enough? (JMD)

• CO-Sen (R): The Devil Wears Prada! Or, perhaps more appropriately, former Lt. Gov Jane Norton wears high heels, according to her rival, Weld County DA Ken Buck. The two have been duking it out for the conservative mantle. Buck’s been endorsed by GOP would-be kingmaker Jim DeMint and has had some airpower in the form of shady 501(c)(4) group Americans for Job Security; Norton’s earned the endorsements of both John McCain and the star of Saved By The Xenophobia, Jan Brewer. Norton and Buck remain close in polling, with PPP giving Norton a narrow edge at 41-40 and SurveyUSA giving Buck some more breathing room at 50-41. All of this remains in complete flux though, and any result tonight could be rendered moot by a switcheroo with the Governor’s race, should the Colorado GOP somehow manage to cast off their albatross in Scott McInnis. (JMD)

• CO-Gov (R): Former Rep. Scott McInnis was at one time considered a major get for the GOP, and the strength of his candidacy was such that he helped push incumbent Dem Gov. Bill Ritter out of the race after just one term. No more. While some initially dismissed McInnis’s plagiarism scandal as a minor white-collar affair that wouldn’t interest average voters, his transgressions in fact proved unusually potent, leading to his campaign’s utter ruin. Polls now show a dead heat between McInnis (whose fundraising has dried up) and crazy fringer Some Dude Dan Maes (who never raised squat to begin with). The primary may be completely moot, though: Rumors have abounded that if McInnis were to win, he’d step down in favor of a less-damaged candidate. We should probably be rooting for Maes, though, who has explicitly said he’d do no such thing. (D)

• CO-03 (R): Former state Rep. Scott Tipton, who represented a large swath of Southwestern Colorado before running against incumbent Dem. John Salazar in 2006, looked like he would easily earn the right to challenge Salazar a second time, but was held to only 45% at the state nominating against the teabaggish Bob McConnell, who also earned 45%. As a result, the two square off tonight, with McConnell running to Tipton’s right, even boasting a Sarah Palin endorsement. Both candidates have some cash to play with, Tipton having spent $213k and McConnell having spent $132k so far. Given the relative low profile of this race – Salazar bested Tipton with 62% in 2006 and seems to be more entrenched than most vulnerable Dems – the race remains unpredictable. (JMD)

• CO-07 (R): The primary field in this suburban Denver district is also down to two after the convention, with Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier having earned 49% and carpetbagging former Democrat Lang Sias having earned 43%. Frazier is winning the money race by quite a distance, $252k to Sias’s $89k cash-on-hand. Sias — who lives in CO-02 and became a Republican in 2007, however, boasts endorsements from both former 7th CD Rep. Bob Beauprez, the one and only Tom Tancredo, and John McCain, who Sias campaigned for (but didn’t vote for). Again, Perlmutter doesn’t seem particularly vulnerable, leading to a lower-profile — and less predictable — race tonight. (JMD)

• CT-Gov (D): Connecticut Democrats are hungry for a win this November — which would be their first gubernatorial win since William O’Neill’s re-election in 1986 — but they’ll have to get through a fast-closing primary tonight to see who their nominee will be. ’06 Senate nominee and Lieberman primary-slayer Ned Lamont is facing off against former 14-year Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, and this race looks like it’s going down to the wire. After lagging in the polls behind Lamont for months, Malloy has used some well-timed punches to turn Lamont’s business experience against him, releasing TV ads criticizing Lamont for layoffs at his telecommunications company. The latest Q-poll shows that Lamont’s lead has eroded to a mere three points — certainly not a margin to bet the farm on tonight. (JL)

• CT-Gov (R): While technically this one is a three-way decision, the only candidates with a shot at winning the Republican nomination tonight are ex-Ambassador Tom Foley and Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele. Like Lamont, Foley has used his personal fortune to catapult himself to an early lead. Fedele has had a rough time keeping pace, highlighted by his failures to secure endorsements from Gov. Jodi Rell and the state GOP convention. Still, Fedele has swung back at Foley with TV ads drawing attention to layoffs at one of Foley’s textile factories in Georgia. The latest Q-Poll shows some juice for Fedele, but he still lags behind Foley by 38-30. (JL)

• CT-Sen (R): Little Bobby Simmons announced that he was taking his ball and going home, but it turns out that he was just lingering behind the bleachers until he could muster up the courage to take another at-bat. The results aren’t pretty: a 50-28 lead for controversial WWE Queen Linda McMahon in the latest Q-Poll. Next! (JL)

• CT-02 (R): Now this one’s getting down in the weeds, but Republicans are trying to prod as many Dem-held seats for potential weakness as possible. The crop of candidates going up against two-term Rep. Joe Courtney, however, leaves much to be desired. After their most well-funded recruit, former Hebron Board of Finance vice chairman Matthew Daly, dropped out in May, Republicans are picking between former TV anchorwoman Janet Peckinpaugh, former State Department official Daria Novak, and farmer/attorney Douglas Dubitsky. Peckinpaugh, the most “hyped” of the trio, failed to raise more than $50K for her campaign, and her candidacy drew early fire for her most recent employment stint as a shill for a now-defunct mortgage company in deceptive, TV news-like ads. As much success as Republicans have had in expanding the map this year, this race stacks up as a glaring recruiting failure. (JL)

• CT-04 (R): State Sen. Dan Debicella is the clear front-runner in the race to take on Rep. Jim Himes. He faces a couple of Some Dudes who, as befits their Some Dude status, haven’t raised squat: Rick Torres and Rob Merkle. (A more credible opponent, Tom Herrmann, dropped out in June after petition fraud meant he couldn’t qualify for the ballot.) Debicella won his party’s backing at the state convention earlier this year. (D)

• CT-05 (R): Though the 5th district would seem to be a tougher GOP target than the 4th, the Republican primary here has attracted quite a bit more money, and a larger number of credible candidates. Another state senator, Sam Caligiuri, is also the presumed front-runner here, having won 70% of the delegate vote at his party’s nominating convention. But Afghanistan vet Justin Bernier, who was running in this race (and got some favorable notice) before Caligiuri dropped down from the senate contest last November, has raised a creditable sum and hasn’t given up. Like many others in his position, though, it seems he’s had a chip on his shoulder ever since Caligiuri hopped into the race, and that’s usually not very appealing. Wealthy businessman Mark Greenberg actually leads the money race, with over a million raised (most of that from his own pockets), but most of the media attention devoted to this contest has seemed to focus on the Caligiuri-Bernier matchup. The winner, whomever he may be, gets to challenge sophomore Rep. (and all-time SSP hero) Chris Murphy in the fall. (D)

• GA-Gov (R): The big ticket race in Georgia is the Republican gubernatorial runoff, between Karen Handel, the former SoS who finished a dominant first in the primary, and Nathan Deal, the former U.S. Rep. who was second. The Beltway media tends to emphasize that this is a proxy fight between possible presidential candidates (with Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney backing Handel, and Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee backing Deal), but the important post-primary endorsements here may have been the NRA, and third-place finisher state Sen. Eric Johnson (who has a strong base in the Savannah area), which both seemed to have consolidate conservative and rural Johnson and John Oxendine votes behind Deal. With that, Deal has pulled into a polling tie with Handel, promising a down-to-the-wire race tonight. (C)

• GA-07 (R): With the surprising third-place finish of state Rep. Clay Cox (who’d had the backing of the Club for Growth and many local endorsers), meaning he’s not in the runoff, it’s anybody’s guess as to who has the upper hand tonight in the Republican runoff in the dark-red open seat 7th and be the district’s next Rep. (Actually, this part of Atlanta’s northern suburbs is going through a lot of demographic change that will be beneficial to Democrats in the long run, but this isn’t going to be the year to capitalize on that.) John Linder’s former CoS, Rob Woodall, faces off against radio talk show host Jody Hice. (C)

• GA-09 (R): Few candidates are as well acquainted with each other as newly-minted Rep. Tom Graves and former state Sen. Lee Hawkins, who, thanks to a special election, special election runoff, and primary, are now poised to face each other for the fourth time this year. Graves has won the first three rounds, and barely missed winning the primary outright (with 49% of the vote), so it would be a pretty monumental turnaround for Hawkins to finally win it, on the time it really counts (as November will be of little import in this dark-red district). Maybe having been in Congress for five months is enough to give Graves the unacceptable taint of incumbency, though. The county to watch is Hall, where Hawkins has his geographic base and which tends to report late. (C)

• GA-12 (R): Democratic Rep. John Barrow — who overcame his main challenge this year, a challenge from the left from former state Sen. Regina Thomas, in the primary — will be watching with some interest tonight to see who his Republican opponent will be: nuclear power plant project manager Ray McKinney, or former fire chief of the small town of Thunderbolt, Carl Smith? Neither one is particularly well-funded or has an imposing profile, but this race could be competitive if the Republican wave is particularly large. (C)

• MN-Gov (D): Minnesota Democrats will finally have a chance to participate in some real democracy today, rather than having their gubernatorial nominee chosen for them by a bunch of elites at a party convention. State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher did in fact win the endorsement of state delegates, but former Sen. Mark Dayton and former state Rep. Matt Entenza forged on with primary challenges regardless. It was probably a wise move for the wealthy Dayton, seeing as recent polls have all shown him to be in first place, with MAK in second and Entenza (who also has access to family money) in third. While this race may not wind up being very exciting, in a low turnout three-way with one woman and two men, the outcome could be unexpected. (D)

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (8/7-8, Colorado voters, 5/14-16 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 46 (44)

Jane Norton (R): 40 (41)

Undecided: 14 (14)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 46 (45)

Ken Buck (R): 43 (39)

Undecided: 12 (16)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 42 (43)

Jane Norton (R): 43 (41)

Undecided: 15 (16)

Andrew Romanoff (D-inc): 43 (41)

Ken Buck (R): 42 (38)

Undecided: 15 (22)

(MoE: ±3.1%)

With all eyes on the Senate primaries today (for which they released numbers yesterday, giving small leads to Michael Bennet and Jane Norton), PPP is also out with how things look for the general. This has been an easy race to get pessimistic about, but that’s because the race has been polled almost exclusively by Rasmussen; PPP’s few looks at the race have tended to give small advantages to the Democrats, and that continues to be the case here.

What PPP’s Tom Jensen finds most striking about this race is how unpopular everyone currently is, thanks to heavy doses of negative campaigning on both sides of the aisle. Bennet, for instance, is at 32/48 approvals (down from 34/44 in May), not the kind of numbers you usually recover from… unless the Republicans are doing worse. Norton is at 28/44 (down from 20/32), and Ken Buck seems to have fared the worst of all, dropping to 26/46 (down from 19/24). Andrew Romanoff comes the closest to smelling like roses (or at least vaguely rose-scented compost), at 35/37 (down from 31/26). So, although Bennet currently fares better than Romanoff in the general, probably thanks to his name rec advantage, Romanoff would seem to have more upside… but the real question, if Romanoff somehow pulls off the upset in the primary tonight, would be whether Romanoff can access the money quickly enough to capitalize on his room to grow.