Swing State Project

SurveyUSA for KING-TV (8/6-9, likely and actual voters, 6/25-28 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 41 (37)

Dino Rossi (R): 33 (33)

Clint Didier (R): 11 (5)

Others: 10 (6)

Undecided: 4 (19)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

While Dino Rossi has been, in public, trying to stay above the fray and treat his advancing from Washington’s Top 2 primary as a given, he’s also been trying to consolidate support from various right-wing kingmakers (Jim DeMint, Tom Coburn), which suggests he’s at least somewhat sweating the challenge from various teabaggers on his right flank. SurveyUSA’s new poll (of likely and “actual” voters, the latter being those who’ve already sent in their mail-in ballots) shows that there his efforts may be warranted, as he’s flat while everyone else is gaining: principal Tea Party opposition Clint Didier, Democratic incumbent Patty Murray, and the vast hodgepodge that is “other” (partially fellow teabagger Paul Akers, who’s in the low single digits, but also 12 other assorted dreamers and cranks). Rossi, of course, is in no danger of losing his ticket to the big dance in November, but he probably wants to avoid an embarrassing finish in distant second.

As with the previous SurveyUSA poll, one red flag for Murray is that Rossi + Didier > Murray. PPP‘s recent poll of the primary is an interesting comparison point, because their numbers for the Republicans are pretty similar while finding Murray further along (Murray 47, Rossi 33, Didier 10, Akers 4)… but they don’t include an “Other,” suggesting that SurveyUSA is finding at least a handful of folks who prefer Murray to the GOPers but, given the full panoply of options, plan to waste their primary votes on one of the perennial candidates who are self-described Dems (like the ubiquitous Mike the Mover).

Via Greg Giroux, AFSCME is up with a new ad today hitting Republican hopeful Jim Renacci, who is challenging first-term Dem Rep. John Boccieri, on the issue of Renacci’s support for a 23% sales tax:

And we definitely have some word on the size of the buy:

AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY AN – C90011172

  1. Opposes Candidate: James B Renacci (H0OH16097)

       Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 16

       Payee: Adelstein/Liston

       Date Expended = 08/09/2010      Amount Expended = $750000.00

       Purpose: TV ads Totally Unacceptable Deadbeat

That’s a monstrously huge buy for this time of year, and there’s no word on whether that money is being spread out over multiple weeks or multiple ads. Boccieri is pretty high on the list of vulnerable Ohio Dems this cycle, so it’s nice to see AFSCME try to get out and define Renacci before he can define himself.

• CT-Sen: This may be the first time we’ve ever linked to Jezebel, but they have a nice deconstruction of the public face of the new image that Linda McMahon has built up for herself, and its complicated relationship to the WWE, the source of the millions that Linda McMahon plans to spend on her Senate bid. (Although I wish they’d focused more on the behind-the-scenes stuff: the steroids, the lack of health care, the union-busting, and so on…)

• KY-Sen: Is this really the kind of headlines that Rand Paul (or any candidate, for any office) would want to be seeing today? “Woman Says Paul Did Not Kidnap Her,” and “Paul Apologizes for Fancy Farm Beer Flub.” The former story isn’t that surprising, in that Paul’s college acquaintance clarifies that the whole let’s-tie-her-up-make-her-smoke-pot-and-pray-to-a-graven-idol thing was more of a consensual hazing than an out-and-out kidnapping (of course, other than the “kidnapping” semantics, all that Bong Hits for Aqua Buddha stuff still seems to stand). The latter story has its roots in Paul’s worries that the audience at the Fancy Farm church picnic (the same ones who got the vapors last year when Jack Conway used the words “son of a bitch”) were going to start throwing beer at him – even though the event was dry. Having realized that you don’t go around dissing politically-legendary church picnics unless you have the political instincts of a brick, Paul later apologized.

• LA-Sen: Southern Media & Opinion Research finds that David Vitter leads Charlie Melancon 46-28, not much changed since their last poll from spring, where Vitter led 49-31. They also take a look at the Republican Senate primary, finding (as did POS a few weeks ago) that Chet Traylor is really turning into something of a paper tiger: Vitter leads Traylor 78-4! They also do a quick look at the jungle-style Lt. Governor special election, giving the lead to current Republican SoS Jay Dardenne at 26.

• OR-Gov: Well, it seems like the John Kitzhaber campaign has finally acknowledged what the blogosphere realized a while ago, that it’s time to shake things up and bring in a more feisty and uptempo approach. That’s hopefully what they’re doing with a new campaign manager, Patricia McCaig. Interestingly, McCaig is a former right-hand woman to ex-Gov. Barbara Roberts, who Kitzhaber shoved over in 1994 and whose relations with Kitz have been rocky since then.

• AZ-03: Will today’s double-whammy be enough to knock Ben Quayle out of his seeming frontrunner position in the GOP primary in the 3rd? Rocked by controversy over having denied and then having gotten outed as having written pseudonymously for sleazy local website DirtyScottsdale.com (a forerunner to today’s TheDirty.com), he’s out with a TV spot that he hopes will take some of the heat off. Unfortunately for him, the ad seems to have gotten an almost universally derisive reaction, based on his odd combination of hyperbolic claims (“Barack Obama is the worst president in history”), slow, droning delivery, and strange robotic motions.

• IA-03: When we moved Leonard Boswell in the 3rd to Tossup a few weeks ago, we weren’t fooling around. A second Republican poll was released today giving his GOP challenger, state Sen. Brad Zaun, a decent-sized lead: Victory Enterprises, on behalf of the Polk County GOP and not the Zaun camp, finds a 45-38 lead for Zaun. (There was also a June poll giving Zaun a 41-32 lead. It was also by Victory Enterprises, and shared the same Republican-friendly party ID composition, but that one was for the Zaun campaign.)

• OR-05: He’s Scott Bruun, and he drives a truck. He also supports privatizing Social Security. Or doesn’t he? Bruun has reversed himself several times on how he frames the issue, depending on who his audience is, but either way, he seems to be relying on the Paul Ryan roadmap for his ideas.

• Passages: Here’s a sad bookend to yesterday’s death of Ted Stevens: today’s death of another legendary, long-time Congressman who was a master at horse-trading and pork-wrangling, this one from the other side of the aisle. Former Rep. Dan Rostenkowski, one of the biggest Democratic names to fall in 1994, died at age 82.

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 38%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%

• FL-Sen: Jeff Greene (D) 20%, Marco Rubio (R) 36%, Charlie Crist (I) 37%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%

• TN-Gov: Mike McWherter (D) 31%, Bill Haslam (R) 56%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 48%, Dave Westlake (R) 39%

Fundraising in the cycle before an election can give us signs of who is thinking about retirement or who is planning for a tough re-election. Looking through 2009-2010 FEC reports for 2012 Senate candidates contains some surprises about incumbents assumed to be likely 2012 retirements, such as Dianne Feinstein and Ben Nelson. Below you can find the fundraising, cash on hand, and debt of every incumbent senator up for re-election in 2012, with the exception of Kirsten Gillibrand, who first has to win a 2010 election and West Virginia, where we do not know who the incumbent will be.

I will arrange it by the amount (least to greatest) that the Senator has raised this cycle:

Senator- Raised this cycle- Cash on Hand- Debt

(D-HI)Daniel Akaka- $19,000- $78,050- $0

(R-TX)Kay Bailey Hutchison- $77,788- $50,628- $0

(I-CT)Joe Lieberman- $81,721- $1,261,561- $0

(D-NM)Jeff Binjaman- $147,146- $366,018- $0

(D-WI)Herb Kohl*- $198,207- $15,549- $0

(I-VT)Bernie Sanders- $259,622- $141,661- $0

(R-WY)John Barrasso- $384,215- $554,739- $0

(R-ME)Olympia Snowe- $407,009- $1,085,714- $0

(R-NV)John Ensign- $444,161- $961,247- $0

(R-IN)Dick Lugar- $464,852- $2,350,060- $0

(R-AZ)Jon Kyl- $562,490- $600,327- $0

(D-MD)Ben Cardin- $613,752- $379,594- $0

(D-ND)Kent Conrad- $616,187- $1,905,346- $0

(D-VA)Jim Webb- $688,356- $509,959- $0

(D-DE)Tom Carper- $734,118- $935,791- $0

(D-MT)Jon Tester- $844,975- $500,768- $0

(D-RI)Sheldon Whitehouse- $855,136- $589,527- $0

(R-MS)Roger Wicker- $919,844- $401,796- $0

(D-MO)Claire McCaskill- $1,087,857- $793,586- $0

(D-WA)Maria Cantwell*- $1,111,117- $316,029- $2,180,161

(D-NE)Ben Nelson- $1,218,005- $1,180,852- $0

(R-UT)Orrin Hatch- $1,286,657- $2,300,247- $0

(D-MN)Amy Klobuchar- $1,351,502- $1,307,076- $0

(D-PA)Bob Casey- $1,379,122- $876,815- $0

(R-TN)Bob Corker- $1,406,025- $$796,477- $0

(D-CA)Dianne Feinstein- $1,492,719- $3,641,409- $0

(D-OH)Sherrod Brown- $1,695,542- $1,442,660- $0

(D-FL)Bill Nelson- $1,736,308- $2,712,340- $0

(D-MI)Debbie Stabenow- $1,880,157- $$1,407,087- $8,303

(D-NJ)Bob Menendez- $2,207,492- $2,036,673- $0

(R-MA)Scott Brown- $17,005,388- $6,034,498- $158,513

*Ability and willingness to self-fund

Scott Brown raised a huge amount of money in the run up to the MA special election, so much that he couldn’t spend it all. He had about 5 million left over immediately after the election, and has added an addition million to his campaign account since then. He heads into 2011 with the largest bank account of any senator up for re-election in 2012, other than Gillibrand, who has an election this year.

Incumbents Ben Nelson, Dianne Feinstein, Orrin Hatch, Tom Carper, and Olympia Snowe, all retirement possibilities in 2012, have raised decent amounts of money for their campaigns so far. Senators Daniel Akaka, Jeff Binjaman, Joe Lieberman, and Kay Bailey Hutchison, all retirement possibilities, are not raising much money. Hutchison has already announced her retirement, but she also announced her resignation two years ago. Dick Lugar and John Ensign, both considered very likely retirements, are still raising money. Herb Kohl is also considered a potential retirement in 2012, but it is difficult to tell from his fundraising reports, since he self-funds all of his bids.  

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (8/7-8, Colorado voters):

John Hickenlooper (D): 50

Dan Maes (R): 38

Undecided: 12

John Hickenlooper (D): 48

Dan Maes (R): 23

Tom Tancredo (C): 22

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±3.1%)

PPP’s newest look at the Colorado gubernatorial race finds Denver mayor and Dem nominee John Hickenlooper in pole position, regardless of whether ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo follows through on his kamikaze mission to run on the Constitution Party line. With the GOP having chosen paranoid bike-hating very-very-small-businessman Dan Maes as their standard bearer, there’s really no path to victory for them. (Not that Scott McInnis, mortally wounded by plagiarism scandal, would likely have fared any better. Although that’s purely conjecture… I assume that PPP polled Hickenlooper/McInnis when they took this sample last week, since McInnis still had a decent shot of winning the primary, but they don’t release those numbers today.) (Also, note that there are no trendlines from their May poll, as the idea that they’d have to be polling based on Maes, let alone Maes and Tancredo justifiably didn’t occur to them.)

The favorable numbers tell most of the story: Hickenlooper is at 50/33 (including 47/30 among indies), extremely strong for any Dem gubernatorial candidate anywhere, while Maes and Tancredo are pretty widely reviled, at 23/38 and 27/50 respectively… and bear in mind that there’s probably a lot of overlap in that one-quarter of the electorate, meaning that Maes and Tancredo are going to be competing over the few crazies who can tolerate them.

OK, OK, there is one way the Republicans can salvage this race, although that got a lot slimmer with Maes having won the primary rather than McInnis (who was a loyal enough solider that he might have dropped out). They can: 1) convince Maes, who’s vowed to stay in, to drop out for someone more electable, 2) get someone like Jane Norton or Josh Penry (UPDATE: or self-funding ReMax founder Dave Liniger?) to take over, and 3) hope that the presence of a more electable Republican drives the rather, um, mercurial Tom Tancredo out of the race. It’s at least imaginable, and I’m sure state party chair Dick Wadhams is already working the phone lines, but it’s something of a triple bank shot for the GOP to hang their hopes on. As a result, Swing State Project is moving this race from Tossup to Lean Democratic.

UPDATE: PPP’s Tom Jensen kindly shared with us the Scott McInnis numbers that they tested. Hickenlooper would have beaten McInnis 52-38 in a two-way, and 48-24-22 in a three-way, barely budging the numbers.

STILL ANOTHER UPDATE: A new Politico piece from Dave Catanese — mostly focusing on McInnis having conceded to Maes and offering his support — quotes Maes as saying that Wadhams “pledged to back whoever wins the primary and I believe him.” Maes was also later quoted as saying “that rattlesnake pledged not to bite me, and I believe him.”

• Colorado: What looked like a hotly contested race on the Democratic side of the Senate race (thanks to a mixed bag of poll results, including an Andrew Romanoff lead according to SurveyUSA) turned into a fairly comfortable win for Michael Bennet in the end. Propped up by Obama and DSCC help, and weathering a last-minute patented hit job from the New York Times, Bennet won 54-46. Maybe this’ll help put to sleep two memes that are getting very very tiresome: that it’s an “anti-incumbent year,” and that Obama endorsees all lose. Bennet will face off against Ken Buck, who defeated Jane Norton in the GOP primary 52-48. Polls haven’t been conclusive in terms of whether Dems should have wanted to face off against Buck or Norton. Buck gets lumped in with Sharron Angle and Rand Paul because of his teabagger proclivities, but he’s considerably more skilled than they are; nevertheless, he still seems gaffe-prone and irritable, so I’ll take him.

Dan Maes won the GOP gubernatorial nod, 51-49. The only way things could have gone better for Dems in the GOP gubernatorial race would be if Maes’ margin had been small enough to force a recount. The risk here was that irreparably-damaged Scott McInnis would win and then, being a good GOP team player, promptly drop out, allowing a better Republican (Jane Norton?) to take his place, which would then drive Tom Tancredo out of his indie bid. Maes has vowed to fight on, though, and his underwhelming presence is likely to keep Tancredo in the race, meaning not one but two guys not just spewing the crazy, but splitting the crazy vote and ensuring Gov. John Hickenlooper.

Finally, in Colorado, the GOP House primaries were uneventful wins for establishment candidates, with Ryan Frazier beating Lang Sias 64-36 in CO-07 and Scott Tipton beating Bob McConnell (Sarah Palin’s other losing endorsee yesterday) winning 56-44 in CO-03.

• Connecticut: Probably the biggest surprise of the night was the 58-42 victory by former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy over Ned Lamont in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, seeing as how Lamont had led all polls (although polls did capture a late and rapid Malloy surge). The lesson here mostly boils down to one more race where the organizational power of the local political establishment was able to overcome the money of a rich outsider, but there’s one other story here that Dem message-setters will hopefully notice. Judging by when polls saw the race tigthen, the wheels seemed to come off Lamont’s campaign with a late round of attack ads that focused on layoffs at Lamont’s company. Taking not just that but the air war in the PA-12 special in mind (where Mark Critz won in large measure by hammering Tim Burns over outsourcing), it really seems like, despite this year’s overarching CW, voters will go for a “career politician” over a self-described job-creating outsider businessman, once it’s made clear that said businessman’s interest in jobs only extends as far as his own bottom line.

Malloy will face a flawed Tom Foley in November, and based on general election polling recently should be considered a slight favorite. Foley won the GOP primary narrowly over Lt. Governor Michael Fedele and Oz Griebel 42-39-19. Also, for the GOP, Linda McMahon unsurprisingly won the GOP primary in the face of Rob Simmons’ half-assed comeback-type-thing. Simmons and Paulist economist Peter Schiff did keep her under 50% though: 49-28-23. McMahon faces Richard Blumenthal in November, who already launched his first TV ad this morning, shirking a no-doubt-tempting smackdown in favor of… what’s that thing that McMahon doesn’t have… oh, yeah. Dignity. The three GOP House primaries led to expected victories for Janet Peckinpaugh in CT-02 (43-38 over Daria Novak), Dan Debicella in CT-04 (60-24 over Rob Merkle), and Sam Caligiuri in CT-05 (40-32-28 over Justin Bernier and Mark Greenberg).

• Georgia: The main event in Georgia was the GOP gubernatorial runoff, and hoo boy, did it live up to its billing. The two candidates finished in recount territory at 50-50, with Nathan Deal leading Karen Handel by 2,500 votes. Unfortunately, Handel just conceded this morning rather than following through with the recount, so Dem nominee Roy Barnes doesn’t get to spend weeks watching them keep fighting it out. Pundits will no doubt focus on the proxy war aspects of the battle (“Huck beats Palin!”), but the outcome seems to have more to do with Deal consolidating conservative votes outside the Atlanta area, where Handel’s anti-corruption, anti-good-ol’-boyism message may have fallen flat.

We also had outcomes in three GOP House primaries, one to determine the nominee in a Likely Dem race, and the others to determine who’s the next Rep. in dark-red districts. In GA-07, establishment-backed former John Linder CoS Rob Woodall beat teabagging radio talker Jody Hice, 56-44. In GA-09, Rep. Tom Graves won his fourth (and probably final) faceoff against Lee Hawkins, 55-45. And in GA-12, Ray McKinney beat Carl Smith 62-38 for the right to take on Rep. John Barrow. If you want to argue that this year’s crop of Republican candidates is radioactive, you don’t need to look any further than McKinney; he’s a nuclear power plant project manager by day.

• Minnesota: Finally, there was only one race worth watching last night in Minnesota, and it turned out to be a barnburner: the DFL gubernatorial primary. State House speaker (and DFL endorsee) Margaret Anderson Kelliher led most of the night based on her strength in the Twin Cities, but as results trickled in from the rest of the state, ex-Sen. Mark Dayton crept into the lead. In the end, despite having convincing pre-primary poll leads, Dayton won 41-40-18 over Kelliher and Matt Entenza. Dayton pretty clearly benefited not only from his statewide familiarity, but also from picking a running mate from Duluth, where he cleaned up, late in the game. With a 7,000 margin separating them, Kelliher didn’t concede last night… but she did this morning, meaning Dayton faces the increasingly woeful GOP nominee Tom Emmer in November. The most recent spate of polls has given Dayton double-digits advantages in that matchup.

IL-Sen: Crain’s Chicago Business is reporting that a teabaggish libertarian, Michael Labno, appears to have survived challenges to his petitions and will likely appear on the ballot this fall. Presumably this is good news for Alexi Giannoulias.

NV-Sen: Who knew he was even gone? Sketchball and possibly ersatz teabagger Scott Ashjian had apparently been AWOL for some time, but Jon Ralston has been keeping tabs. The erstwhile Ashjian put out his first press release in however long yesterday, to remind the world that he exists. It also serves the remind the world that he does not know how to use spell check.

AR-01: GOPer Rick Crawford just caught a break: conservative indie candidate Richard Walden just dropped out of the race and threw his backing to the Republican.

IN-09: Another similar story to the AR-01 item above: Indie Ron Kimsey has bailed on the race, in order to help Republican Todd Young beat Rep. Baron Hill.

NM-02: In one of the first independent expenditures aimed at the general election, Defenders of Wildlife plunked down $125,000 for a two-week buy to air an ad against GOP retread Steve Pearce. Big problem, though: The Pearce campaign put out a press release saying they got KOAT-TV to take down the ad on the grounds that it was false and misleading. Really hate to see a Dem ally stumble out of the gate like this.

NY-14: Talk about chutzpah: Reshma Saujani baselessly attacked Carolyn Maloney for the fact that the 9/11 healthcare bill failed to pass, carping that “A real leader would have passed this bill years ago.” Not only did this bill fail purely due to Republican obstructionism, I’d like to know where Saujani was lobbying on this legislation “years ago.” Fortunately, the attack has generated some swift blowback: the president of the Uniformed Firefighters Association says he supports Maloney’s efforts, and the head of the NY AFL-CIO said Saujani’s charges were “absolutely ridiculous.” Now, the chief of the Uniformed Fire Officers Association (a different outfit) has also chimed in, slamming Saujani for her “disingenuous and offensive” attacks.

PA-15: Say what you will about Bill Clinton, but the man is touring America like a fuggin’ champ on behalf of Democratic candidates this year. In addition to stumping on behalf of Joe Sestak yesterday, Clinton stopped by the Lehigh Valley to help Dem John Callahan raise $150K for his race against GOP incumbent Charlie Dent. (JL)

WV-01: Politico reports that the AFL-CIO is threatening to remain neutral in this race, rather than back Dem Mike Oliverio, who hasn’t exactly compiled a very pro-labor record. (Indeed, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers endorsed his Republican opponent, David McKinley.) It could of course all be a ploy to extract promises out of Oliverio. (If so, good.) In any event, the AFL will decide on an endorsement this weekend.

(At least I think the votes are all in.  I’m not sure, but it’s been three whole days now.)

So apart from our statewide races (Gov, LG, SoS, and Comptroller), our town had just one local race: the race for probate court judge.

Background information and analysis is beneath the fold.

4:09 pm: Well, we now have East Windsor results.  Again, I’m not sure if this is the full count, but this would be a slightly even lower turnout than South Windsor’s (at 5.6% instead of 6.9%).  Well, Fisher didn’t even get a total number of votes bigger than Griffin’s margin–it’s Fisher 311-241.  Final tally of all three is Griffin 2665-2351.  Griffin wins the D primary, and he goes on to a rematch with Fisher in the general election, but with Fisher as the R nominee.  I’d say he’s now definitely favored, and now I’m wondering if there was some other local race in Windsor that really drove up turnout.

13 August 2010

1:52 pm: Wow, finally, some results!  South Windsor, Fisher’s home, has reported, and as expected, she won big, 1305-408.  However, assuming these are all the results, this is a notably lower turnout here relative to Windsor–only 1713 votes total, out of a population of about 25,000.  Griffin now leads by under 400 votes.  Can East Windsor make up Fisher’s deficit, with a 2000 census population of only 9,818?

12 August 2010

9:00 pm: It’s been a whole day now, and they still only have the Windsor results.  I wonder when they’re counting the ballots; I know there’s at least two votes in Fisher’s column in South Windsor (mine and my mom’s) so I know they haven’t reported yet.

1:51 am: Still nothing new.  I’m taking a break from following the main reporting thread on the front page and going off to watch some Record of Lodoss War.  It’s completely possible that they still won’t have reported several episodes later, so I might just turn in for the night if that’s the case.  I’ll bump this thread tomorrow with a comment if there are new results.  I also added a bit more commentary about the demographics of each town.

1:36 am: Nothing new reported, but I’ve just posted this diary.

1:04 am: Windsor has reported.  Not surprisingly, Griffin won big there, 2016 to 735.

11 August 2010

11:29 pm: No results from any of the three towns yet.

10 August 2010

CT SoS election results, probably updated irregularly as results come in

Marianne Lassman Fisher is the probate court judge in South Windsor and East Windsor.  Brian Griffin is the probate court judge in nearby Windsor, across the Connecticut River.  But the two probate court districts are being combined into a single district, to be called Region 4.

The Democratic primary was held on 10 August 2010, as with everything else, of course.  Both of these candidates are Democrats.

Here is the local newspaper’s background on the race.

Note this important detail: a Griffin loss in this primary would mean that he’d have to wait four years to run for this office again, but a Fisher loss in this primary is tempered by the fact that Fisher has been cross-endorsed by the Republicans and thus will still appear on the ballot for a rematch this November.  (Though this isn’t as favorable obviously; and all three communities are Democratic-leaning at a national level.)

Demographics of Windsor, demographics of East Windsor, demographics of South Windsor.

Based on this being a low-info, low-issue-politics race where each candidate seems to have their own base, I’m predicting a Fisher win based on her having a larger base–about 25,000+9,000 versus about 28,000.  Additionally, Windsor is on average a slightly poorer community with a greater percentage of minorities.  Though the sparse and even less wealthy East Windsor may eat into Fisher’s potential additional margin from that town, so it may yet be close.

4:19am: One last update from beyond the grave: Dan Maes wins the Republican gubernatorial nomination — joyous news for Democrats everywhere. The final margin, according to the AP, was 50.7% Maes, 49.3% McInnis.

3:17am: The SSP news team is calling it a night. Hopefully we wake up tomorrow to find Dan Maes as the GOP nominee in Colorado and Karen Handel and Nathan Deal locked in a drawn-out recount battle. (One is allowed to dream, right?)

2:48am: Deep Thought: Have Colorado’s ballot-counters been kidnapped by the UN’s armada of black helicopters? We may never know…

2:47am: We’re now at 94.2% reporting, and Dan Maes by just shy of 5200 votes. Come on, you whacko, let’s blow this thing and go home!

1:37am: With 91% reporting, Dan Maes in CO-Gov has a lead just shy of 4,000 votes. By the way, somewhere along the way, the AP finally called CO-03’s GOP primary for Scott Tipton (56-44), not that you were probably agonizing over that one.

1:33am: Ah, now the AP has made it official on their own site. Dayton will face Tom Emmer (and IP nominee Tom Horner) in November, in a pretty interesting political second act.

1:30am: While the AP’s site itself doesn’t have the red check mark, Politico is saying that the AP has called MN-Gov for Mark Dayton. (Looks like they can do the same math, regarding Duluth, that I can.) 95% are reporting, and Dayton has moved into a 4,000 vote margin (still 41-40), with 135/178 of St. Louis now reported.

1:25am: Things are pretty stable for Dan Maes in CO-Gov, with 90% reporting. Maes leads 50.5%-49.5%, outside auto-recount territory. He has an almost 4,000 vote margin. That’s with all of Denver having reported, and the outstanding precincts coming in Maes-friendly counties like El Paso and Douglas.

1:20am: Apparently auto-recount territory in Minnesota is also one-half of one percent. Dayton is at 40.8%, while Kelliher has 40.3%. So we’re literally right on the cusp. (Although if things keep going for Dayton, he’ll soon be out of the zone.)

1:17am: Now things are really moving in Dayton’s direction. He’s up to a 1,000 vote margin, with 94% reporting. St. Louis is at 100/178 now, which is pushing things for Dayton.

1:10am: Mark Dayton has moved into the lead in MN-Gov. Just barely… it’s 41-40 in his favor now, with a 400-vote margin. But that seems likely to increase, with St. Louis still with only 68 of 178 reporting. That’s with 91% reporting overall. Seems to be mostly rural counties filling in the gap, so Duluth will be the icing on Dayton’s cake.

12:44am: Also regarding CO-Gov, the only counties that were really keeping McInnis in this at all were the ones in his old CO-03, like Mesa (72-28 McInnis) and Pueblo (53-47 McInnis). Denver is 51-49 McInnis and all the other suburban/exurban counties are going for Maes. Mesa (Grand Jct.) and Pueblo are done reporting, while there are still lots of outstanding precincts in El Paso, Arapahoe and Jefferson (suburbs), Douglas (exurbs), and Larimer (Ft. Collins): all Maes counties.

12:40am: Via the twittermajig, Jennifer Duffy points out two helpful things: one, the recount level in Colorado is one-half of one percent. Right now, Maes is up, believe it or not, 50.26%-49.74%, so he’s just outside that zone. (That’s with 79% reporting.) Second, though, she points out that he’s expected to run strongest in El Paso County (Colorado Spgs.), where there are still a couple hundred precincts outstanding, so it’s looking more like Maes will win this thing recount-free.

12:34am: Things are verrry slowly converging in Minnesota. 87% are reporting now, and it’s 41-40, MAK over Dayton, but that’s with only a 600 vote lead. And St. Louis still hasn’t added any more precincts! Most of the new votes seem to have come in from Stearns Co (St. Cloud), where Dayton leads 42-34.

12:23am: Go, crazy bike-hating campaign-finance-law-violating guy! Dan Maes, with 78% in now, has padded his advantage, up to a 1,600 vote lead over plagiarist Scott McInnis. I’m not familiar with Colorado recount law, but that’s a 50.2%-49.8% advantage.

12:17am: Sifting over Minnesota results with a fine-toothed comb, it looks like Beltrami Co. (Bemidji) is the second biggest clot of outstanding precincts. (7 of 62 have reported.) Dayton has a narrower edge there, 41-38. There’s also some smaller counties (Pine, Pope, Roseau) that haven’t reported anything (all of which have 40-some precincts, all of which are rural counties… again, not that there’s a clear pattern among the rural counties, but the general trend in such counties seems to favor Dayton.

12:12am: Actually, I take that back, I am sensing a pattern. The biggest clot of outstanding votes are in St. Louis County (Duluth and the Iron Range), where only 49 of 178 have reported. Hennepin and Ramsey (the Twin Cities) are done reporting. Dayton seems to have an advantage in St. Louis, seeing as how he was previously elected statewide, whereas MAK has a small Twin Cities constituency. Dayton’s winning 54-30 in St. Louis, so if he can keep those numbers up, he might actually pull this out in the end.

12:10am: Things are very close in Minnesota now, with 81% reporting. MAK leads Dayton 41-40, with Entenza at 18. It’s less than a 4,000 vote lead for Kelliher, out of about 375,000. I can’t discern a pattern among the counties… Kelliher and Dayton are both from the Twin Cities… so it’s hard to see how much of a trend is at work here.

12:02am: Rocky Mountain high? Looks like they may be taking a ganja break in Colorado, where the needle’s been stuck on 75% reporting for a while. Dan Maes still has about a 1,200 vote lead over Scott McInnis.

11:39pm: OK, now the AP has called it for Ken Buck, for those of you keeping close score at home.

11:37pm: Things are staying fairly stable but close in Minnesota. With 67% reporting, it’s MAK 42, Dayton 39, Entenza 18. It’ll be a while till we know what’s what here.

11:36pm: And the GOP gubernatorial primary in Colorado keeps puttering along, at 50-50 with Maes currently up by 1,050.

11:35pm: In Colorado, various twitterers are saying Ken Buck has won, but the AP hasn’t graced us with a red checkmark yet. He’s up 52-48 with 76% reporting, though, so it looks pretty locked in. Kind of a faceplant for John McCain, who extended a lot of political capital to ally Norton the last few weeks.

11:20pm: 75% in in Colorado. Things are looking slightly better for Dan Maes, or better yet, for a protracted recount that ends with a Maes win. It’s 50-50 with a 1,300 lead for Maes.

11:16pm: Wow, things are definitely tightening in MN-Gov. It’s now 42 MAK, 39 Dayton, 18 Entenza. That’s with 55% reporting. Nate Silver just tweeted that he sees this coming down to a few thousand votes. (Currently Kelliher’s lead is about 10,000.)

11:12pm: 2897 out of 2898 precincts have reported in Georgia. I think that’s about as complete as we’re going to get… and no call from the AP. Deal leads 291,713 to 289,353. Karen Handel had better hope there are 2,500 Handel votes in that last precinct. That’s 50.2%-49.8% for Deal, so we are pretty certainly heading for a recount.

11:10pm: Somewhere along the way, the AP called the CO-07 GOP primary for Ryan Frazier, 65-35. He’ll face Ed Perlmutter in an uphill fight in November.

11:08pm: Although 52-48 qualifies as a close race, it’s pretty mundane compared with the excitement in GA-Gov and CO-Gov. Ken Buck leads Jane Norton by 4%, or by 10,000 votes.

11:06pm: Let’s take one more look at Colorado. In the Gov GOP primary, it’s Dan Maes up by only about 500 votes, at 50-50. Could we possibly see two recounts between GOPers? Best possible outcome, recount followed by Maes victory, and him fighting to bitter end. 73% are reporting.

10:52pm: MAK now leads Dayton by 43-38 with 42% in.

10:48pm: Irish eyes are smiling (I guess) — Tom Foley has won the GOP gube nomination in Connecticut.

10:44pm: We’re up to 99.4% reporting in GA-Gov. Deal leads by 3,500 — or 0.6% of the vote. We’re definitely in the recount zone here.

10:42pm: It’s worth noting that Taryl Clark is only getting 65% of the vote against Maureen Reed. Perhaps some Reed supporters didn’t hear the news that she dropped out of the race two months ago.

10:38pm: MAK’s lead over Mark Dayton has fallen even further, to 44-38 with 32% reporting.

10:37pm: With 67% in, Ken Buck is now up over Jane Norton by nearly ten grand. Maes still leads McInnis by one g.

10:33pm: The AP went on a binge in Connecticut, calling CT-02 for ex-TV anchor Janet Pecinpaugh, CT-04 for Dan Debicella, and CT-05 for Sam Caligiuri. The Republican gubernatorial primary is still un-called, with Tom Foley leading Michael Fedele by 43-38 (74% of the vote in).

10:30pm: Over in Minnesota, the Dem gube primary is narrowing slightly — MAK leads Dayton by 45-37 with 28% in.

10:27pm: Bicyclists beware, Dan Maes is back up in the GOP CO-Gov primary. He leads McInnis by 1000 votes with 65% reporting.

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RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico