Swing State Project

SurveyUSA for KABC, KPIX, KGTV, and KFSN (pdf) (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/8-11 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (45)

Carly Fiorina (R): 47 (47)

Other: 5 (3)

Undecided: 5 (5)

Jerry Brown (D): 43 (39)

Meg Whitman (R): 44 (46)

Other: 6 (7)

Undecided: 6 (8)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

SurveyUSA continues to put up odd numbers in California: Meg Whitman over Jerry Brown by a point, yeah, that’s on the pessimistic side compared with other pollsters but certainly feasible. But Carly Fiorina beating Barbara Boxer by 5, with trendlines going completely the opposite direction from the Dem-trending gubernatorial race? SurveyUSA is not only the only pollster to have ever given Fiorina a lead, but also the only pollster to recently show conservative, HP-destroying, money-limited Fiorina performing better against Boxer than the more moderate, more-acclaimed CEO, more-money-than-God Whitman against Brown. Well, all we can do is throw it on the pile with the rest of the polls; if nothing else, it’ll smooth out that PPP poll that was +9 Boxer a couple weeks ago, which may have been a little too optimistic.

They also include some downballot issues, where Dems seem to be at an advantage (which makes the pro-Fiorina tilt of this poll seem even weirder). Gavin Newsom narrowly leads GOP incumbent Abel Maldonado 43-42 in the Lt. Governor race, and they find Proposition 19, which would legalize and tax the use of marijuana, passing by a fairly broad 50-40 margin.

I’m going to go way out on a limb and predict that the Republicans pick up somewhere between 15 and 63 seats.

The 15 seats I am pretty confident Dems will lose (in alphabetical order):

AR-02 – Might have been competitive with Wills.

IA-03 – Two Republican polls have Zaun up and I believe he is.

KS-03 – Not sure how Moore switcheroo can work in an anti-incumbent year.

LA-03 – Dems seem to be conceding this.

MS-01 – Nunnellee internal has him up 8, and I tend to believe it.

NH-02 – Well-known Bass way ahead in polls.

NY-29 – Dems seem to be conceding this.

OH-01 – Multiple polls show Driehaus down double digits.  I believe that he is down, though maybe not by that much.

OH-15 – Logic leads me to believe Kilroy is in similar shape as Driehaus.  

PA-07 – Huge internal poll lead for Meehan.

PA-11 – Big internal poll lead for Barletta.  Kanjorski is addicted to putting his foot in his mouth.

TN-06 – Dems seem to be conceding this.

TX-17 – Edwards beating Flores makes no sense to me after tight 2008 race with unfunded Curnock.

VA-02 – I believe the Rigell poll showing him ahead.

VA-05 – I don’t think Periello is down 23 like SUSA says, but I do believe he’s down.

Touted races I am pretty confident Dems will win:

CT-04 – Monster fundraising for Himes.

ID-01 – Labrador down big in his own poll.

IN-02 – Big lead for Donnelly in pro-lifer poll.

IN-09 – Young significantly down in his own poll.

KY-06 – Big lead for Chandler in independent poll.

NC-08 – PPP showed Kissell ahead by 6.

NJ-03 – Independent poll featured on front page shows Adler ahead.

NY-13 – Internal poll for McMahon has him way ahead.

PA-12 – Don’t see why Burns would win the second time around.

TN-04 – Republican internal had Davis up 11.

TX-23 – Republican internal had Rodriguez up.

VA-09 – SUSA has Boucher up big.

WV-01 – Oliviero up big in internal.

Races where I just don’t know:

AL-02 – Would bet a current poll would be much closer than dusty Bright internal.

AR-01 – Woolridge sour grapes hurting Causey, who otherwise should win this.

AZ-01 – This is a tough district and maybe a sleeper, but Republicans are underfunded.

AZ-05 – My gut tells me Mitchell may lose.  Tough, wealthy district.

AZ-08 – Hope Jesse Kelly is right with his primary poll.  He would be the easiest to beat.

CA-11 – Another sleeper.  Harmer is a real go-getter for the Republicans.

CO-04 – Tend to believe we’ll lose this, but no polling confirms it.

FL-02 – I’m somewhat doubtful of Southerland internal with him up 15.

FL-08 – No friggin’ clue.  Huge money advantage but internal from also ran Republican Todd Long shows Grayson down.

FL-22 – This will be one of the most expensive races in the country.

FL-24 – Crowded Republican primary may help Kosmas in tough district.  No polling.

GA-08 – Tend to feel good about Marshall, but would love to see a poll.

IL-11 – Multiple partisan polls show Kinzinger up.  I tend to believe it, but not quite convinced.

IL-14 – Big $$$ advantage for Foster.

IL-17 – Not in love with Hare’s response to Schilling internal showing himself up big.

IN-08 – Republicans should win this one, but Bucshon isn’t much of a candidate.

MA-10 – What a mess with all the third party candidates.  Would love to see a poll.

MD-01 – Conflicting polling, but I’m not feeling good about this one.

MI-01 – Tough call with Benishek in, knock on wood.  Weak fundrasing for McDowell.

MI-07 – Walberg internals have him up, but I’m not quite convinced.

MN-01 – Tend to think Walz will be OK.  Demmer raised serious $$$ last quarter though.

MO-04 – Tend to think Skelton will pull this out, but would love to see a poll.

NC-11 – Conflicting polling data.  Tend to think Shuler will be OK.

ND-AL – Last Rasmussen poll tight.  Pomeroy was reddest-district Dem to vote yeah on HCR.

NH-01 – Shea-Porter ahead in recent polling.

NM-01 – Conflicting polling.  My sense is that Heinrich is ahead by high single digits.

NM-02 – All polling on this has been tight.

NV-03 – Titus ahead in latest M/D poll.

NY-01 – This will be another enormously expensive race.

NY-19 – No friggin’ clue.  Would love to see a poll.  Self-funder Hayworth has $$$ advantage.

NY-20 – Was feeling good about this, but then Gibson came up with monster $$$ for Q2.

NY-23 – Have a feeling Hoffman will fuck this up for the Republicans one way or the other.

NY-24 – Everybody’s writing Arcuri off, but would love to see a poll.

OH-13 – We’ll see if money really IS everything.

OH-16 – Not sure if I believe Republican poll showing big Renacci lead.

OH-18 – Republican internal with race tied does not impress me much.

OR-05 – No polling but Republicans are talking this one up.

PA-03 – Conflicting polls here.  Wouldn’t be surprised if it is close.

PA-04 – Tend to like Altmire’s chances, but no polling so far.

PA-08 – Worried about this one, but no polling.

PA-10 – Huge $$$ lead for Carney.

SC-05 – PPP showed a small lead for Spratt some time ago.

SD-AL – Not sure I believe Rasmussen and his big Noem lead, but not sure I disbelieve it either.

TN-08 – Impressive Fincher primary victory makes me less sanguine on this one.

VA-11 – Not sure I’m buying Fimian internal showing lead.

WA-03 – Dem Heck has big $$$ advantage.

WI-07 – Historically Dem district, but Lassa is playing catchup in fundraising.

WI-08 – Could be a sleeper.  Crowded Republican primary may help Kagen.

Braun Research for the Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics (8/5-8, registered voters, no trend lines):

John Adler (D-inc): 31

Jon Runyan (R): 25

Peter DeStefano (I): 4

Undecided: 34

Not Voting: 6

John Adler (D-inc): 35

Jon Runyan (R): 28

Undecided: 23

Not Voting: 13

(MoE: ±4.8%)

The eggheads at Rutgers are out this week with a new poll of New Jersey’s 3rd CD, the first poll of this race since John Adler released an internal last month claiming a 51-34 lead over the ex-Eagle Runyan, with 12% going to independent teabagger Peter DeStefano. That poll drew howls of protest from the Runyan campaign, who didn’t believe that DeStefano, a man who appears to be in the Witness Protection Program (as no one can seem to be able to track him down), could be winning a double digit-sized share of the vote.

Much has been made of the fact that, zomg, Runyan holds a 36-35 lead among those who are “paying the most attention to the campaign”, but the more interesting statistic from this poll is that, among those who say they are likely to vote (n=351), Adler holds a 40-30 lead over Runyan — or a 36-26 lead with DeStefano in the mix. That’s the opposite result you’d expect in a year where Republican enthusiasm has been shown to be more intense than that of Democrats, but it’s also probably true that Braun wasn’t pushing undecideds off the fence with as much force as other pollsters.

My own thoughts on this race are that Adler should’ve be a pretty appealing target for the GOP to turn into a one-term wonder, but they certainly gave him a fighting chance by relying on a B-list candidate in Runyan to get the job done.

Braun Research for cn|2 (8/9-10, likely voters, no trend lines):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 52

Todd Lally (R): 29

Michael Hansen (I): 1

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.4%)

The class of 2006 and 2008 represent some of the best targets for Republicans to shoot for this fall, but we at least we can feel pretty good about John Yarmuth’s chances at a third term in his Louisville-based district. And that’s good to hear, as Yarmuth is a great representative who’s proven to be a solid fit for his district — his approval rating according to this poll is 62-32.

In an interview with cn|2, Lally’s campaign manager pushed back at the poll’s results, in part by claiming that “we’ve already had independent polls that are closer”. That’s a pretty curious thing to say, considering that the only other polls of this race that have been released this cycle, according to SSP Archives & Storage, were a Yarmuth internal that pegged the race at 58-32, and Lally internal from the obscure Rivercity Polling group which claimed that Yarmuth only had a 1-point lead on Lally. Surely the Lally campaign isn’t suggesting that their own pollster, who produced the outlier in this triad of surveys, should be considered an independent source?

One of the things that has come up in this election is whether the macro vs. micro climate, and which is better in terms of determining the outcome of this year’s election. Simply put, Republicans have nominated some pretty bad candidates (Angle, Paul, and possibly Buck, although I think the verdict might still be out on the latter) who would be unelectable in a different year.

Anyway, I thought it would be a fun exercise to put together a list of 10 candidates who were preceived as weak choices for their respective parties at the time, but went on to win in “wave” elections. Feel free to disagree or nominate your own choices below.

Gary Hart (D) vs. Peter Dominick (R), CO-SE, 1974

Peter Dominick was a two term Senator who had served only two years before as the chairman of the NRSC. His opponent was the upstart campaign manager of George McGovern’s disasterous bid for the presidency, which lost the state of Colorado by a substantial margin. But Hart took advantage of the post-Watergate environment to crush Dominick 57.2%-39.5%, beginning a political career that would end in Monkey Business thirteen years later

Alfonse D’Amato (R) vs. Elizabeth Holtzman (D) and Jacob Javitz (I), NY-SE, 1980

D’Amato, the presiding supervisor of the town of Hempstead was given little chance against longtime New York Senator Jacob Javitz, but taking advantage of Javitz’s illness and the conservative tide in 1980, he upset Javitz in the primary. Javitz decided to run as an independent in the general election, but instead of taking moderate Republican votes away from D’Amato he split the liberal and moderate base with Elizabeth Holtzman, who was vying to be the first woman Senator from NY, and in the year of Reagan’s first landslide D’Amato won a close race.

John LeBoutillier (R) vs. Lester Wolff (D), NY-6th District, 1980

Another New York race. LeBoutillier was the original wingnut, a 27-year old rabidly conservative Republican who beat a 16-year incumbent to win election to this Long Island district in this very Republican year. He only lasted one term before being ousted. He’s currently a columnist for NewsMax.com

Jesse Helms (R) vs. Jim Hunt (D), NC-SE, 1984

The always very controversial Helms was considered dead meat against North Carolina’s very popular Democratic governor Jim Hunt. Up until the last couple weeks of the campaign, Hunt was still the favorite in what was then considered one of the nastiest campaigns ever run in American history. But Helms rode the Reagan landslide win that year to hang on to his Senate seat.

Kent Conrad (D) vs. Mark Andrews (R), ND-SE, 1986

Andrews was a longtime North Dakota congressman who joined the Senate in 1980, receiving 70 percent of the vote. He looked so unbeatable for reelection that the state’s Democratic congressman, Byron Dorgan, took a pass. But North Dakota tax commissioner Kent Conrad stepped up to the race, and in a bad year for farm-state Republicans, beat Andrews in a suprise upset

Steve Stockman (R) vs. Jack Brooks (D), TX-9th District, 1994

Jack Brooks had been a congressman for 40 years and was chairman of the powerful House Judiciary Committee. Stockman was pretty much of a nobody who held no political office, although he had run against Brooks once before, in 1992, losing pretty badly. However, Brooks sponsorship of a crime bill opposed by the NRA along with being in the Republican wave year of 1994 doomed Brooks. Stockman, who was dogged by controversy throughout his term, lost to Nick Lampson in 1996.

Rod Grams (R) vs. Anne Wynia (D), MN-SE, 1994.

Grams was a one term congressman and former broadcaster who is likely the most conservative senator ever to be elected from Minnesota. Wynia was a well respected state legislator who was the benificiary of a campiagn by prominent Minnesota DFLers to elect a woman to the Senate. But, in the year of Republican sweep, Grams beat her in a very close race. He lost to Mark Dayton six years later.

Bill Frist (R) vs Jim Sasser (D), TN-SE, 1994

One more from the 1994 election debacle. Bill Frist was a prominent Tennessee physician and major stockholder in his family’s health care company. Jim Sasser was on the short list to succeed George Mitchell as Senate Majority Leader, and he was from a state the Clinton-Gore ticket had won two years before. But Tennessee took on a decidedly conservative bent in 1994, and Sasser lost by 13 points

George Allen (R) v. Jim Webb (D), VA-SE, 2006

In this case, it may not be that Jim Webb was neccesarily a weak candidate, but George Allen was perceived as so strong. A popular former Virgina governor and future Presidential candidate, Allen was viewed as the prohibitive favorite to win reelection, but in an upset prompted by his own stumbles and a good campaign run by Webb, he lost in a very close race.

Kay Hagan (D) vs. Elizabeth Dole (R), NC-SE, 2008

We all are familiar with this recent one, so no need to rehash it. Suffice it to say that no one would have predicted two years before an obscure state legislator would beat the head of the NRSC so badly.  

It's been a month since my initial forecast and I think it requires an update. I didn't rank every seat in order of weakness because there is a potential for wild cards and some I moved down on my list. Let's look at what I expect to happen.

This is the scenario that is most probable, the GOP gaining between 24-30 seats. The purple category holds “Possible” gains, I added a new color category for that reason. The GOP could pull all these purple seats, but I expect them to only grab 2-3 of them, which would make the overall gain 27. And you have subtract at least three from any GOP gain number because Democrats will likely takeover HI-1, LA-2 and DE-AL. So the actual math for GOP gains is 24-27. That's my main prediction. Now on to the best case scenario for Democrats.

Similar to the 1978 midterm where Republicans only managed to grab only 15 seats. I have the GOP grabbing 18 in this scenario. If Democratic candidates can really localize elections like Mark Critz in PA-12 did, this is what the board would look like. 

Overall, both scenarios show GOP gains, but not enough for the GOP to take the majority.

• NV-Sen: It really seems Sharron Angle is trying to “soften” her image… maybe? For starters, she’s reversed course on attending a Tea Party rally this weekend on the U.S./Mexico border (probably not wanting to be photographed in proximity to the signs that attendees are going to be waving at such an event), despite having confirmed her appearance there last week. And her newest TV ad also focuses on how she wants to “save” Social Security, although her definition of “save” might vary considerably from yours or mine. Harry Reid’s out with his own TV ad, too, calling her “dangerous” and “crazy” over her now-infamous “2nd Amendment remedies” line.

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown just got $20,000 from a very unusual source: Alex Spanos, owner of the San Diego Chargers and usually a staunch Republican donor (as well as a real estate developer who has recently clashed with Brown, as AG, over land-use laws). Spanos hasn’t contributed to Meg Whitman’s campaign. Apparently Spanos and the Brown family go way back; Spanos was a financial backer for Brown’s first gubernatorial campaign in 1974.

• MA-Gov: There’s a new poll of the governor’s race out, from somebody called Mass Insight (taken by Opinion Dynamics): since the only place I can find a link to the poll is Red Mass Group (not even Mass Insight’s own site?) and their site describes themselves as a consulting and research firm that focuses on “market-driven solutions,” I think it’s safe to call this a Republican-ish poll. At any rate, they find Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick leading GOPer Charlie Baker and independent Tim Cahill 30-25-16. And in a two-way race (which, of course, would require Cahill to drop out), Baker leads Patrick 42-37. The poll also reports that 54% of respondents are either “somewhat or very likely” to vote against their incumbent Congressman (all of whom are Democrats, of course) this year.

• MI-Gov (pdf): The Detroit News is out with its first poll of the gubernatorial race after the primary elections, conducted by the Glengariff Group. GOPer Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero 51-32, leading in all parts of the state except Detroit proper. Snyder’s faves are 41/15, pretty remarkable considering he just got out of a heated four-way primary, while Bernero’s are 21/27.

• ID-01, OH-18, PA-04: The NRCC is pushing back today after the New York Times, as part of a longer piece talking about Dem House incumbents, said that Walt Minnick, Zack Space, and Jason Altmire were “no longer seen by Republicans as easy targets.” I guess one can quibble over what “easy” means, which is different from saying the GOP has cut these districts loose, but still, to talk with that level of specificity, the NYT had to have gotten that idea from somewhere.

• MA-10: Well, this open seat race just keeps getting weirder and weirder, with the entry of yet another sorta-prominent former Dem running as an indie. Former state Rep. (and way back in the mists of time, aide to Tip O’Neill) Maryanne Lewis will run as a moderate independent. (Recall that former Quincy mayor James Sheets is already running as an indie, too.) I understand the desire to circumvent the Dem primary in this district, which already has two heavyweights in it, but too many indie cooks could spoil the broth here in November.

• MI-01: This photo-finish race in the GOP primary has been outstanding for almost two weeks now, but the state board of canvassers is preparing to certify the election tomorrow. According to physician Dan Benishek’s camp, he leads by 15 votes over state Sen. Jason Allen. Allen is taking a wait-and-see attitude, though a recount sounds likely (which will be cumbersome, in this 31-county district… something I’m sure Dem nominee Gary McDowell doesn’t mind, I’m sure).

• MS-01: Rep. Travis Childers, in for a tough fight against Alan Nunnelee, is out with his first TV ad. As one would expect, in his dark-red district, he’s talking up how he’s one of the “most independent” members of the House, and name-drops his NRA and National Right to Life endorsements. NWOTSOTB.

• VA-09: One last ad to report, and it’s from a very strange source: the Some Dude in the Bloody 9th, running as an independent, is actually hitting the airwaves. I’m not sure with what money, as he’s raised $20K over the cycle (almost all self-funded) and at the end of June had $88 CoH. (There’s not a K missing. That’s literally $88.) Anyway, he wants you to know that he’s never taken money from special interests (which should be abundantly clear from his fundraising report) and never will.

• Rasmussen:

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 41%, Ken Buck (R) 46%

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 35%, Bill Brady (R) 48%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 50%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 41%, Scott Walker (R) 49%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Mark Neumann (R) 45%

Mason-Dixon (8/9-11, likely voters for primary and registered voters for general, 8/2-4 for primary trendlines, 5/3-5 for general election trendlines):

Bill McCollum (R): 34 (31)

Rick Scott (R): 30 (37)

(MoE: ±5%)

Alex Sink (D): 37 (36)

Bill McCollum (R): 35 (45)

Bud Chiles (I): 13 (NA)

Alex Sink (D): 40 (38)

Rick Scott (R): 24 (36)

Bud Chiles (I): 17 (NA)

(MoE: ±4%)

Some sort of dam has broken in Florida in the last week, apparently, and Rick Scott is the one who’s currently getting swamped. There has been a general sense in polling over the last few weeks that Bill McCollum was working his way back into contention in the GOP primary, and all of a sudden, in the latest Mason-Dixon poll, he’s broken back into the lead. What’s wrong with Scott? (Or: What gives, Cueball?)

Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker offers three pretty good reasons: 1) the Medicare fraud thing is finally starting to gain some traction (you’d think it would have months ago, but I guess you have to hit people over the head repeatedly for stuff like that to sink in, and that’s what the latest round of McCollum ads have been doing), 2) Scott, a la Meg Whitman, shot past the point of diminshing returns on saturation advertising, and 3) Scott sucked at the debates he was in, and has been ducking another one this week.

There’s also some serious spillover for Scott into the general. Mason-Dixon’s general election trendlines go all the way back to May, so they don’t reflect the period where McCollum had been turned radioactive and Scott was polling much better vis-a-vis Alex Sink… but that’s totally turned around in the new poll. Sink narrowly leads McCollum, but now she demolishes Scott (with an assist from indie Bud Chiles, who seems to get a big bump in a Sink/Scott race too). The Sink/McCollum numbers are a definite improvement from their last poll, though, so even if McCollum does somehow pull it out in the primary, it seems like the damage from Scott’s self-aggrandizing kamikaze mission has already been done.

Rand Paul Not a Kidnapper “In a Legal Sense,” Accuser Says

It was really just some light… abduction.

Two doctors – both former employees of Solantic, the chain of clinics launched by Scott and in which he is a majority investor – allege that Solantic repeatedly used their name and medical license information without their permission or knowledge. Both doctors state that by allegedly misappropriating their information, the company was able to keep clinics operating in contravention of state law.

One of the doctors asserts that he also came upon evidence of billing irregularities involving Medicare, which, if true, would be the second time a Scott-run company was accused of improperly billing Medicare.