AR-Sen: One Poll Has Halter Down 7, But Lincoln’s Internal Has Her Up 18

Zata|3 (D) for Talk Business (4/14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38

Bill Halter (D): 31

D.C. Morrison (D): 10

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±3%)

Zata|3 (yes, the pipe is actually part of their name) is yet another polling firm I’m not familiar with, but at least Talk Business is mixing it up – for their CD-level polls, they used a Republican outfit, while Zata is a Dem firm. Unhappy (of course) about these results, the Lincoln campaign did something we haven’t seen a whole lot of this cycle – they released a dueling internal. A Lincoln spokesbot also attacked the Talk Business poll for being “very unreliable” because it was automated (eyeroll).

Benenson Strategy Group (D) (PDF) for Blanche Lincoln (4/5-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 53

Bill Halter (D): 35

D.C. Morrison (D): 4

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Note that I’m using the numbers with leaners as detailed in the PDF, rather than the non-leaner numbers cited in the press release, which have Lincoln up 51-34. Incidentally, D.C. Morrison is some weirdo conservative Paulist that I’d never heard of until, well, just now.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/14

• Election results: Yesterday’s big event was the special election in FL-19, the first real electoral test after the passage of HCR. The allegedly massive opposition to healthcare reform on the part of the district’s many seniors never really materialized. Democratic state Sen. Ted Deutch beat Republican Ed Lynch 62-35, with very little falloff from Obama’s 65-34 performance in 2008. (Contrast that with John Garamendi’s so-so 53-43 performance in November’s CA-10 special election, a similarly 65-33 district in 2008.)

I should also pause to offer a little credit to Texas’s Republicans, who voted for the less crazy candidates in the Board of Education and Supreme Court runoffs, and in a bigger surprise to me, for the Hispanic-surnamed candidates in the TX-17 and TX-23 runoffs (which, based on incumbent Victor Carrillo’s trouncing in the Railroad Commissioner primary, seemed unlikely to happen). The NRCC has to be pleased to see the wealthier and less wingnutty Bill Flores and Quico Canseco emerge. Rep. Chet Edwards, however, is one guy who knows how to stand and fight, and he wasted no time hitting Flores hard and defining him as a carpetbagger in big oil’s pocket.

One other leftover issue from last night: two races in California, as expected, are headed to runoffs. In Republican-held SD-12, Republican Assemblyman Bill Emmerson will face off against Democrat Justin Blake (the GOPers combined got more than 60% of the vote, so this is a likely hold), while in safely-Democratic AD-43, Democratic lawyer Mike Gatto will face off with Republican Sunder Ramani to replace now-LA city councilor Paul Krekorian. Gatto seemed to shoot the gap in this heavily Armenian-American district after the two Armenian candidates, Chahe Keuroghelian and Nayiri Nahabedian, nuked each other.

• AR-Sen: Bill Halter’s primary campaign gained more momentum, as he picked up an endorsement from the Alliance for Retired Americans, pleased with his time as a Social Security Administration official. One group that really isn’t getting on board with Halter, though, is the Berry family; first outgoing Rep. Marion Berry dissed Halter, and now his son, Mitch, is head of a group, Arkansans for Common Sense, that’s running ads attacking Halter on the Social Security front. (Are there any Arkansans who are actually against common sense?)

• CO-Sen: Looks like GOP establishment candidate Jane Norton sees the handwriting on the wall and is taking a page from Democrat Michael Bennet’s book: not able to rely on getting on the ballot via activist-dominated convention (where teabagger-fueled Ken Buck seems likely to triumph), she’s making plans to qualify by finding 1,500 signatures in each of the state’s seven congressional districts. Speaking of Bennet, he’s still the fundraising kingpin in this race; he just announced he raised $1.4 million last quarter, well ahead of Norton’s $816K.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist may have sounded Shermanesque last week in his determination not to switch to an Independent bid for Governor, but apparently now there’s increasing moves within his inner circle to move in that direction. Unnamed advisors are floating the idea to the WSJ today.

• IN-Sen: Dan Coats seems to be having more trouble making the transition from the free-wheelin’ world of high-stakes lobbying back to the humdrum electoral politics world, where you actually have to follow the rules and stuff. He’s 10 days overdue on filing his finance disclosure reports with the FEC. One note that the Beltway press seemed to miss though: his main GOP primary opponent, ex-Rep. John Hostettler hasn’t made his filing yet either. (Of course, fundraising was never Hostettler’s strong suit. Or even his weak suit.)

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP issued its latest installment in polls of the Senate general election in its home state. Maybe the biggest surprise is that incumbent Republican Richard Burr’s approvals are just continuing to fall; he’s currently at 32/41 (while likeliest opponent Elaine Marshall is in positive territory at 19/11). Also encouraging, I suppose, is that the actual human Democrats are starting to draw even with Generic D (while previous polls have had Generic D far outpacing them), showing they’re getting better-defined. Burr leads Generic D 43-38, while he leads Marshall 43-37, and leads both Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis 43-35.

• NY-Sen-B: With ex-Gov. George Pataki’s phantom interest in this race finally having been dispelled, Swing State Project is removing this race from its “Races to Watch” list.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): One more poll in the rapidly-becoming-overpolled Pennsylvania Senate race, this time from Republican pollster Susequehanna. They use an LV model, and find Pat Toomey with a 48-38 lead over Arlen Specter. Of more immediate consequence, they find Specter leading Joe Sestak 42-28 in the Dem primary. They also polled both primaries in the gubernatorial race, finding Dan Onorato seeming to break away from the ill-defined pack among the Dems. Onorato is at 32, followed by Joe Hoeffel at 13, Jack Wagner at 6, and Anthony Williams at 4. Tom Corbett beats down Sam Rohrer on the GOP side, 50-7. After marshaling his resources, Specter is finally starting to open fire; he’s up with his first TV ad of the cycle starting today.

• WI-Sen: The only thing that’s sure is that Tommy Thompson likes to see his name in the press. There’s been a lot of conflicting reporting about Tommy Thompson today, with many outlets running with the story that he’s decided against running for Senate (that all traces back to one leak to a local TV station, although it sounds like Politico got some confirmation from an anonymous GOP source). Other outlets are emphasizing that Thompson’s spokesperson says that Thompson hasn’t made a final decision, though. Either way, Thompson will be announcing his plans at a Tea Party rally tomorrow in Madison, so our pain will be ended tomorrow one way or the other.

• MA-Gov: Here’s more evidence for my expectation that Dem-turned-indie Tim Cahill will be running to the right (or at least to the incoherent-angry-working-class-Catholic-guy-position) of the Republican in the Massachusetts gubernatorial race this year. He’s appearing at today’s Tea Party rally on Boston Common today, the same one with Sarah Palin that Scott Brown ditched (although MA-10 candidate Joe Malone and GOP gubernatorial underdog Christy Mihos will be there). Likely GOP gubernatorial nominee Charlie Baker (from the party’s old-school moderate WASP tradition) decided against attending, probably out of fears that he might get jostled by some ruffian and spill some of his gin and tonic on his white Bermuda shorts.

• MN-Gov: Two blasts from the past in the Minnesota gubernatorial race. Walter Mondale weighed in in favor of Democratic state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, while a guy I’ve never heard of named Al Quie, who claims to have been governor from 1979 to 1983, endorsed Republican Marty Seifert.

• NE-Gov: Via press release, the campaign for Democratic candidate Mark Lakers let us know that he took in $314K, impressive considering his late entry to the campaign.

• AL-07: State Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. got an endorsement from the United Steelworkers, a union that seems to still have a lot of clout in Birmingham, once a major steel town.

• AZ-03: Now here’s some news I didn’t expect: the fundraising champ in the 3rd isn’t one of the many state legislators running here, but rather attorney (and vice-presidential progeny) Ben Quayle. He pulled in $550K in the first quarter, thanks no doubt to family connections. There are a couple other self-funders in the race too, but the elected officials seem to be lagging: case in point, well-known ex-state Sen. Pamela Gorman, who raised only $37K and ends with $23K CoH.

• FL-24: Rep. Suzanne Kosmas announced a haul of $260K for the first quarter. That’s less than the $340K reported by her likely GOP opponent, steakhouse mogul Craig Miller (although a slab of his money was apparently carved out of his own personal funds); Kosmas has a big CoH advantage, though, sitting on more than $1 million.

• GA-07: Retiring Republican Rep. John Linder didn’t look far to endorse a replacement for him: he gave his nod to his former chief of staff, Rob Woodall.

• HI-01: Sen. Dan Inouye just transferred $100K of his money to the DCCC, despite appearances that they’re actively backing Ed Case, rather than Colleen Hanabusa, who has the support of Inouye (and pretty much everyone else in the local Democratic establishment). Inouye has apparently been working behind the scenes, including reaching out to Nancy Pelosi, to get the DCCC to dial back their Case support, so maybe the cash infusion will give him a little more leverage. (Inouye is sitting on $3.2 million and faces little if any opposition this year.)

• IN-03: Nice fundraising numbers from Democrat Tom Hayhurst, who ran a surprisingly close race against Rep. Mark Souder in 2006 and is back for another try. Hayhurst has racked up $234K CoH, more than Souder ($99K in the first quarter).

• IN-05: Politico has a look at Rep. Dan Burton’s difficult primary in the 5th, in Indianapolis’s dark-red suburbs. While Burton may actually be safer this year compared with 2008 (since he has four opponents instead of just one), the article traces the roots of the local GOP’s discontent with him, and also shows the magnitude of his collapse in support: only 2 of the 11 local party organizations are supporting Burton this time.

• MO-08: Another Dem in a dark-red seat who keeps impressing everybody with his tenacity is Tommy Sowers. The veteran and college instructor, who’s challenging Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, raised $295K in the first quarter and is now sitting on $675K CoH.

• NM-02: Ex-Rep. Steve Pearce can write himself his own checks if he needs to, but he may not need to at this rate. Pearce raised $277K in the first quarter, and now sits on $708K. Democratic Rep. Harry Teague hasn’t reported yet, but in the duel of wealthy oil guys, he can self-fund too if need be.

• NY-14: With Democratic primary challenger Reshma Saujani having some success on the financial front, Rep. Carolyn Maloney got some top-tier help from Barack Obama, who endorsed her and sent out a fundraising appeal on her behalf.

• PA-11: If this doesn’t wake up Rep. Paul Kanjorski from his nap, I don’t know what will. Three-time Republican opponent Lou Barletta raised $300K in the first quarter. An important caveat: there was no mention of cash on hand, which is telling because Barletta was still saddled with a lot of debt from his 2008 campaign when he decided to run again. (UPDATE: Barletta’s CoH is now $205K.)

• PA-17: Republican state Sen. David Argall raised a tolerable but not-too-impressive $125K in the first quarter. He’ll need more than that to battle Rep. Tim Holden, who, if nothing else, has great survival skills (he had the worst district of any freshman who survived 1994, and then survived a 2002 gerrymander designed to rub him out). In fact, he’ll need more than that just for his primary; heretofore unknown GOP opponent ex-Marine Frank Ryan raised $70K in the first quarter.

• Redistricting: Maryland beat out New York to be the first state in the nation to enact legislation that will, in terms of redistricting, treat prisoners as residents of their last known address, rather than where they’re incarcerated (and thus move the center of gravity back toward the cities from the countryside). Also, on the redistricting front, if there’s one group of people who are the target audience for a whole movie about redistricting (Gerrymandering), it’s the crowd at SSP. The film’s director has a diary up, touting its release in two weeks at the Tribeca Film Festival.

StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – April Ratings Update

Welcome back to StephenCLE’s 2010 House Rankings.  In this post, my April ratings update, we’ll look back through the whole list of rankings, with special emphasis on 22 races in which I had a rankings change for this month.  

Again, at present the Democrats control 257 seats, and the Republicans have 178, not counting the few seats that are open due to special elections.  Team Red will have to take 40 seats to retake control of the House of Representatives, which I feel is an arduous task given the relatively low amount of open seats on the board.  Still, with the environment in their favor, the GOP will probably do well this year.

Again, as I mentioned, I have changed the rankings on 22 seats this month.  Here they are, along with the explanation for why the ratings were moved.

1.Michigan-1 – Solid Democrat to Toss Up – Bart Stupak’s retirement puts into play a swing seat that is sure to get a lot of attention on both sides of the aisle.  MI-1 stretches over the upper peninsula and northern lower peninsula and has a PVI of R+3.  Obama won here 50-48 in 2008.  This is an unfortunate development for Team Blue, but with filing deadlines already passed in some states and fast approaching in others, we probably won’t see much more of this.

2.Hawaii-1 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – If I were rating this based on the upcoming special election, I would have it at toss up, as the free-for-all between Ed Case, Charles Djou, and Colleen Hanabusa is a bonafide triple threat match.  I move the November rating to Lean based on the idea that if Djou wins, he’ll have the advantage of incumbency and a favorable environment.  If one of the dems win though, this probably comes off the board.

3.Colorado-3 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – It looks as though Colorado is going to be a big battleground state in 2010 both for governor and senate.  That’s going to bring out partisans on both sides of the aisle, and in this R+5 district, that’s bad news for John Salazar.  The only poll I’ve seen thus far has Salazar ahead by mid single digits.

4.South Dakota-1 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – Things are happening in the Dakotas, and it appears a full-out republican revolution could be unfolding there.  It’s more pronounced in North Dakota will John Hoeven ready to claim the senate seat there, but it appears that Herseth-Sandlin’s position isn’t unassailable either.  Rassmussen had her only up 2 on Chris Nelson at last check, although it is Rass, so I don’t know much I can trust that.  Still, it’s enough to move the rating.

5.Illinois-11 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – Recent polling has shown Debbie Halvorson struggling, which is enough to move this rating down to Lean.

6.Ohio-10 – Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat – Now that Dennis Kucinich has done the smart thing and voted for HCR, the prospect of Democrats staying home and letting him lose is just about dead.  Thus, I take this one off the board.

7.Massachusetts-4 – Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat – I had this one at Likely based on the prospect that perhaps Barney Frank would be calling it quits, but it appears that isn’t the case, so it moves off the board.

8.California-25 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – This was the same deal as Massachusetts-4, where I wasn’t sure if Buck McKeon was leaning toward retirement or not.  Evidently that’s not the case, so this district moves off the board.

9.North Dakota-1 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up – Earl Pomeroy appears to be in real danger now, as he’s trailing outside of the margin of error according to Rassmussen (again, big grain of salt considering the messenger).  Still, with the powerful Hoeven leading the ticket, this is going to be a fight for sure.  Pomeroy’s vote in favor of HCR isn’t going to do him any favors in this R+10 district.

10.Florida-24 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up – Much like Earl Pomeroy, Suzanne Kosmas casted a tough vote in favor of HCR in a district laden with seniors that probably doesn’t think too highly of the legislation.  I haven’t seen any polling here yet, but I have a feeling that the FL Dem delegation is feeling the heat right now.

11.Maine-1 – Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat – My gut instinct still tells me this seat is vulnerable, but I’ve been hearing from New England’s SSPers that Chellie Pingree’s GOP opponent is a real whack-job.  If that’s the case, then I must move the ranking in the Dem direction.  

12.Massachusetts-10 – Lean Democrat to Toss Up – Really, I have no idea who’s running here.  The district is D+5, but it’s trending rightward, so I think I underestimated the GOP’s chances a bit in my initial prediction, particularly with the seat open.  

13.Washington-8 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – I think I had Dave Reichert in too tight a straights as well.  The democrat in the race is very capable, but Reichert is generally quite popular, so in a year like this you’d think he has a slight advantage.

14.Florida-25 – Lean Republican to Toss Up – With the democrats landing their #1 candidate in a district that is probably more liberal now than it’s R+5 PVI would suggest, this race is going to be one of the hottest in the nation.  Team Red better come up with a good candidate now.

15.California-50 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – With nobody strong stepping up on Team Blue’s side to face Brian Bilbray, this race is taken off the board.  Bilbray better watch out in redistricting coming up though, along with a lot of California GOPers.

16.Alabama-3 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – This seat is now a shoo-in for Mike Rogers now that Josh Segall has dropped out of the race.  

17.Kentucky-2 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – I know that Brett Guthrie is pretty underwhelming as a politician, but I just can’t see Team Blue picking up a seat this solidly red this cycle.

18.New York-26 – Likely Republican to Solid Republican – Maybe I’m moving this one prematurely, but with this being the most red district in New York and lots of contested Dem seats in the state, I think the concern of Team Blue is going to be elsewhere in NY.  

19.Arkansas-1 – Toss Up to Lean Democrat – This is a major GOP recruitment fail, as it appears that the local democratic bench was just too strong.  I expect Team Blue to hold the seat now.

20.Missouri-8 – Likely Republican to Safe Republican – File this one in the same category as KY-2, I know the Dem candidate is pretty strong, but honestly, we’re not picking up R+15 seats this year.

21.South Carolina-5 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – I think John Spratt is in for a very tough fight this year, and I considered moving this one all the way to Toss Up, but polling does show him still with a mid to upper single digit lead.  Still, this is the rural south we’re talking about, so exercise caution.

22.Florida-2 – Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat – Boyd is much in the same boat as John Spratt, a district that is fairly tough in the south, although Boyd’s base is somewhat more urban in nature.  I can’t figure voting for HCR did him any favors though.  I’d like to see some polling because honestly I want to move this to toss up but I can’t simply on a whim.

23.Kansas-3 – Likely Republican to Lean Republican – The final rating change is in Kansas, where Team Blue is keeping it within the family in an attempt to hold this seat.  It’s certainly better than nothing, as the Dems at least have a shot now.  How good a shot, we might not know for a while, but it’ll be a race.

The National Score

Last month – Republicans +25 seats, Democrats +5 seats – Net Change GOP +20

This month – Republicans +26 seats, Democrats +5 seats – Net Change GOP +21

Republican Pickup List – CO-4, NV-3, ID-1, WA-3, ND-1, IA-3, KS-3, AR-2, LA-3, AL-2, MS-1, TX-17, MI-1, MI-7, IN-8, OH-1, VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, MD-1, PA-11, NH-1, NY-24, NY-29

Democratic Pickup List – DE-1, PA-6, IL-10, LA-2, CA-3

There were three seats in which I changed my final calls on this month.  Last month I was calling for a Republican pickup in AR-1, but due to Team Red’s recruitment fail there, I’ve turned that one to a Democratic hold.  In MI-1, Bart Stupak’s retirement in an R-leaning PVI district has moved that seat into the takeover column, canceling out AR-1.  And then we have a change in ND-1, where I now feel that Earl Pomeroy is going to lose re-election.  These moves give Team Red an expected gain of 21 seats if the election were to be held today, making the national score Democrats 236, Republicans 199.

As you can imagine, there are many, many seats that are very, very close on both sides of the cut line, some of which my predictions are no better than flipping a coin.  I would note that compared to most prognosticators, my predictions are slightly more optimistic than average.  I am of the belief that those who are calling for the house to be lost are not investigating each race individually, and when you ask these people to name off seat by seat which ones will be lost, well, it’s hard to come up with a consensus of 40-50 that will be gone.  However, there are many, many more democratic seats in the lean and likely columns compared with the republicans, so it’s possible that things could get much uglier.  I hope it doesn’t.  

Anyway, here’s the big board, and I’ll see you all in the comments, and again next month.    

2010 Big Board: (as of April 14 update)

Safe Dem – 161 seats

Likely Dem – 35 seats

CA-36 (Harman)

CA-47 (Sanchez)

UT-2 (Matheson)

CO-7 (Perlmutter)

NM-1 (Heinrich)

AZ-1 (Kirkpatrick)

AZ-8 (Giffords)

NV-1 (Berkley)

OR-5 (Schrader)

IL-8 (Bean)

WI-7 (Obey)

MN-1 (Walz)

MS-4 (Taylor)

LA-2 (Cao)

TX-23 (Rodriguez)

TX-27 (Ortiz)

IN-2 (Donnelly)

OH-6 (Wilson)

OH-13 (Sutton)

GA-2 (Bishop)

VA-11 (Connolly)

KY-3 (Yarmuth)

NC-8 (Kissell)

NC-11 (Shuler)

NJ-12 (Holt)

DE-1 (Open)

PA-3 (Dahlkemper)

PA-4 (Altmire)

PA-17 (Holden)

RI-1 (Open)

CT-4 (Himes)

NY-4 (McCarthy)

NY-20 (Murphy)

NY-25 (Maffei)

ME-1 (Pingree)

Lean Dem – 25 seats

HI-1 (Open)

CA-11 (McNerney)

AZ-5 (Mitchell)

CO-3 (Salazar)

MO-4 (Skelton)  

SD-1 (Herseth)

AR-1 (Open)

IL-11 (Halvorson)

IL-14 (Foster)

WI-8 (Kagen)

MI-9 (Peters)

OH-16 (Boccieri)

OH-18 (Space)

SC-5 (Spratt)

GA-8 (Marshall)

FL-2 (Boyd)

VA-9 (Boucher)

WV-1 (Mollohan)

KY-6 (Chandler)

NJ-3 (Adler)

PA-8 (Murphy)

PA-10 (Carney)

CT-5 (Murphy)

NY-1 (Bishop)

NY-13 (McMahon)

Toss Up – 36 seats

CA-3 (Lungren)

CO-4 (Markey)

NM-2 (Teague)

NV-3 (Titus)

ID-1 (Minnick)

WA-3 (Open)

ND-1 (Pomeroy)

IA-3 (Boswell)

AL-2 (Bright)

IL-10 (Open)

MS-1 (Childers)

TX-17 (Edwards)

IN-9 (Hill)

MI-1 (Open)

MI-7 (Schauer)

OH-1 (Driehaus)

OH-15 (Kilroy)

FL-8 (Grayson)

FL-22 (Klein)

FL-24 (Kosmas)

FL-25 (Open)

VA-2 (Nye)

VA-5 (Perriello)

TN-4 (Davis)

TN-8 (Open)

MD-1 (Kratovil)

PA-6 (Gerlach)

PA-7 (Open)

PA-11 (Kanjorski)

PA-12 (Open)

NH-1 (Shea-Porter)

NH-2 (Open)

NY-19 (Hall)

NY-23 (Owens)

NY-24 (Arcuri)

MA-10 (Open)

Lean Rep – 13 seats

WA-8 (Reichert)

AZ-3 (Open)

NE-2 (Terry)

KS-3 (Open)

MN-6 (Bachmann)

LA-3 (Open)

IN-8 (Open)

OH-2 (Schmidt)

OH-12 (Tiberi)

SC-2 (Wilson)

FL-12 (Open)

PA-15 (Dent)

NY-29 (Open)

Likely Rep – 19 seats

CA-19 (Open)

CA-44 (Calvert)

CA-45 (Bono Mack)

CA-48 (Campbell)

AK-1 (Young)  

AR-2 (Open)

KS-2 (Jenkins)

KS-4 (Open)

IL-13 (Biggert)

MN-3 (Paulsen)

AL-5 (Griffith)

FL-10 (Young)

TX-32 (Sessions)

MI-3 (Open)

MI-11 (McCotter)

SC-1 (Open)

VA-1 (Wittman)

TN-6 (Open)

NJ-7 (Lance)

Solid Rep – 146 seats  

GERRYMANDERING (movie) – World Premiere Tribeca FF

Greetings all –

I’m the writer/director of a new feature-length documentary about redistricting, a subject which I know is near and dear to many hearts here.  It’s called, aptly, GERRYMANDERING.  I’ve been working it now for about five years and the film will have its world premiere two weeks from today in the Discovery section of New York’s Tribeca Film Festival.

In the course of making the film, I got in touch with DavidNYC who provided terrific advice here and there.  When I let him know about the premiere he suggested I diary about it, so here goes…

GERRYMANDERING World Premiere!

Tribeca Film Festival 2010

Tuesday, April 27, 6:00 pm, Village East Cinema (181 Second Avenue at 12th Street)

Tickets are available now for Amex cardholders: http://www.tribecafilm.com/fes…

General tickets go on sale 4/19.  

If you can’t make the premiere, we’ll screen three more times:

Wednesday, April 28, 5:30 pm, Village East

Friday, April 30, 7:00 pm, Clearview Chelsea  (260 West 23rd Street (between 7th and 8th Avenues)

Saturday, May 1, 10:00 pm, Clearview Chelsea

Here’s the Tribeca FF description:

What is “gerrymandering”? You don’t have to wait for your oversized 2010 census envelope to figure out what exactly it means. Named for the Massachusetts governor who conveniently redrew a few erratic lines in 1812, gerrymandering is the redistricting of electoral boundaries to effect voting outcome in favor of a particular candidate, political party, et cetera. And why should you care? As the governor of California will tell you, the reestablishment of district lines takes away the voice of individual communities, reduces voter turnout and lessens competition among candidates. Whether it’s a community, race, or party issue, an issue it surely is.

Director Jeff Reichert gathers an impressive bevy of experts to smartly present a well-rounded exposé. From California’s struggle to pass Prop 11 to The Daily Show’s mockery of a gaggle of border-jumping Texas politicians, this accessible and informative documentary encourages us to put on our bifocals and more closely inspect the warp and woof of America’s democratic system.

–Ashley Havey

Residents of California, Florida, Texas, Iowa, DC, New York, Massachusetts, Louisiana or Oklahoma will recognize a lot of our shooting locations.  (Hopefully we’ll be able to get the film to the rest of the country soon).

For more info (and a quick, somewhat old teaser trailer) check out our website: www.gerrymanderingmovie.com

And if you have specific questions about the film, I can try to answer them in the comments…

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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NY-Sen-B: Pataki Says No (Finally)

The wait is over:

Former New York Republican Gov. George E. Pataki has decided not to mount an election challenge against Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand this fall.

Instead, he said in an interview Tuesday that he would create a new national organization aimed at building support to repeal the recently enacted health-care overhaul.

What a douchebag — but that’s beside the point. Pataki has consistently posted strong performances in hypothetical head-to-heads against Gillibrand (including a Q-Poll released just today showing him leading by five points), so Democrats lucked out with this one – though Pataki never appeared very interested in running in the first place. Gillibrand appears to be one of the only potentially vulnerable Democratic senators who’ll escape a serious challenge from the GOP this year.

Election Liveblog Thread

It’s poll closing time in Florida, so let’s get things underway with some liveblogging… starting with the hopefully uneventful special in FL-19.

10:15 pm: Thanks to our friends at Blue Mass Group, we finally have some idea what happened in Massachusetts. Netroots fave Peter Smulowitz upset state Rep. Lida Harkins in the Dem primary in the former Scott Brown seat; he’ll face GOP state Rep. Richard Ross next. In the safe ex-Galluccio seat, it looks like Everett city councilor Sal DiDomenico has won, although with a 125-vote margin, his nearest competitor isn’t conceding.

10:10 pm: Likewise, according to the AP, TX-23 has been called for Canseco.

9:45 pm: AP has called FL-19 for Deutch.

9:40 pm: Other Texas stuff: things have tightened a bit in TX-23, but Quico Canseco is still on track to get his long-awaited matchup with Ciro Rodriguez; he leads 55-45. In the Board of Education and Supreme Court races, with not quite half reporting, the slightly less nutty Republican leads in each case: Farney in the BoE (62-38), and Lehrmann for the Ct (52-48).

9:35 pm: Based on some literal back-of-the-envelope calculations, in FL-19, with 51% reporting (181 of 356), Deutch has 23,434 votes (61%) and Lynch has 13,949 (36%). The Broward portions of the district, which seem more conservative than the Palm Beach portions, have finished reporting, so it looks like smooth sailing from here.

9:19 pm (James): The AP has called the TX-17 GOP primary for Bill Flores. This is the better match-up for Republicans, as Curnock was a notoriously inadequate fundraiser. Looks like Chet Edwards won’t be able to take a ganja break this fall.

8:40 pm (David): For FL-19 results, you need to add Broward and Palm Beach results together. I’ve added the links below.

8:20 pm: We’ve got some results coming in in Texas. In TX-17, with 5 of 304 precincts, Bill Flores leads Rob Curnock 4,756-3,767 (56-44), while in TX-23, with 8 of 249 precincts Quico Canseco leads Will Hurd 3,014-2,223 (58-42). Obviously, there’s still a lot of reporting to go to see whether that holds.

8:06 pm: Thanks to politics64 in the comments, we finally have some data. Dem Ted Deutch is up 7,406 votes to Lynch’s 4,078 (63-35), based on 8 precincts so far plus early voting results.

Here are some links; if you find better-performing ones, please share them in the comments:

Florida: Sec. of State | Broward | Palm Beach

Texas: Sec. of State

SSP Daily Digest: 4/13 (Afternoon Edition)

• Special elections/Runoffs: Believe it or not, it’s a busy election night tonight. Top of the list is the special election in FL-19, where the successor to Robert Wexler will be chosen. In this D+15 district in the more middle-class parts of the Gold Coast, the Democrat, state Sen. Ted Deutch, is heavily favored. The parties haven’t gotten involved, and Republican Ed Lynch (who lost a lopsided decision to Wexler in 2008) is hamstrung by the presence of independent right-wing candidate Jim McCormick.

It’s runoff day in Texas, with almost all the action on the GOP side. TX-17, between self-funder Bill Flores and 2008 candidate Rob Curnock, and TX-23, between self-funder Quico Canseco and ex-CIA agent William Hurd, are the marquee races as far as the U.S. House goes. There are also some GOP runoffs in some state House races, an interesting mixed bag of open seat succession races, teabaggish challenges to GOP incumbents, and challenges to vulnerable Dems. Finally, there’s a culture war clash between just-very conservative and super-duper conservative in two statewide contests: one for the Supreme Court (with Rick Green, the former state Rep. known for punching the guy who beat him in 2002, representing Team Crazy), and one for the Board of Education (between Marsha Farney and Brian Russell, with Russell the movement conservative here).

Finally, there’s some state legislature action in Massachusetts, California, and Florida. Primaries for two state Senate seats are in Massachusetts, the ones held by now-Sen. Scott Brown and now-disgraced Anthony Gallucio. This is the de facto election in Gallucio’s dark-blue seat, seeing as how no Republicans are running, but the winner between state Rep. Lida Harkins and doctor Peter Smulowitz in the Dem primary will face off against GOP state Rep. Richard Ross on May 11 to succeed Brown. In California, there are two legislative specials; using the California system, each one will likely head to a runoff (unless someone in the cluttered fields breaks 50%). Both seats will likely turn out to be holds: SD-37 is in Republican exurban Riverside County, while AD-43 is in Democratic Glendale in LA County. And in the Florida Panhandle, dark-red HD-04 should be an easy Republican hold.

• AR-Sen: Looks like Blanche Lincoln picked the wrong week to stop acting like a Democrat. She got seriously outraised by Bill Halter in the first quarter, earning $1.3 million (Halter got $2 mil). She also spent more than she earned, running a blitz of TV ads, probably to the tune of $2 million, as her cash on hand dropped $700K –although it’s still a high $4.7 million. Still no word yet from the race’s key Republicans.

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina filled in the last blank in the California Senate race; her fundraising total for the first quarter was $1.7 million, edging out Tom Campbell (who pulled in $1.6 million). Both GOPers lagged Barbara Boxer’s $2.4 million.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is still trying to find something that’ll stick to Marco Rubio, and he’s trying again to link ex-state House speaker Rubio to some of the other less savory elements among legislative leadership. He’s up with a new ad trying Rubio to another former speaker, Ray Sansom, who’s currently under indictment for charges of falsifying state budget items.

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias is lagging Mark Kirk on the cash front; he raised $1.2 million last quarter, compared with Kirk’s $2.2 million. Giannoulias didn’t release cash on hand figures, which may not be too impressive either considering that he had to fight through a competitive primary.

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP looked at the primaries only in the North Carolina Senate race (they’re on May 4). On the Dem side, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is still within striking distance of SoS Elaine Marshall; she leads Cunningham 23-17, with Kenneth Lewis at 9 and 5% for assorted minor candidates. (Last month, Marshall led Cunningham and Lewis 20-16-11.) On the GOP side, Richard Burr is at 67%, with his closest competition, Brad Jones, at 7.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Quinnipiac finds a lot of same-ol’-same-ol’ in the Empire State: Andrew Cuomo crushing, and Kirsten Gillibrand crushing anyone non-Pataki. Gillibrand trails non-candidate George Pataki 45-40 but leads actual candidate Bruce Blakeman 47-25 (none of the other third-tier GOPers get polled); she’s also sporting her highest-ever approvals, at 47/25. (Pataki beats Blakeman in a GOP primary, 64-15.) On the Governor’s side, Rick Lazio is still poised to be GOP nominee; he leads Steve Levy and Carl Paladino 34-11-11 (note that the poll was in the field prior to the whole bestiality thing). Andrew Cuomo dispatches Lazio 55-26, Levy 57-24, and Paladino 60-24.

• OH-Sen: I’d assumed Lee Fisher had been on the air before, but he’s just now launching his first TV spots of his campaign with the primary only weeks away (apparently marshaling his resources for the general). Fisher also pulled down the endorsement of Cleveland mayor Frank Johnson, although he didn’t gain the backing of his own home town’s Democratic party (in Shaker Heights), which instead declined to endorse.

• PA-Sen: Here’s a bit of a surprise: Joe Sestak succeeded in his ballot challenge, getting last-minute conservadem entrant Joe Vod Varka kicked out of the Democratic primary, setting up a two-man fight against Arlen Specter. If Sestak’s going to have any hope of knocking off Specter, he’ll need to consolidate every anti-Specter vote (and also not have the Slovak-American vote — a big segment in western Pennsylvania — split).

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold had a successful fundraising quarter, considering right now he’s only running against the specter of Tommy Thompson. Feingold earned $1.34 million, leaving him with $4.26 million CoH.

• FL-Gov: Rick Scott has decided, rather belatedly, to throw his hat in the ring in the Republican field in the Governor’s race. If the name’s familiar, he’s a former hospital-industry businessman who funded much of the initial anti-HCR astroturfing efforts via his organization Conservatives for Patient Rights. He’s sound teabaggish themes about establishment candidate AG Bill McCollum (despite McCollum taking the lead on the GOP AGs’ anti-HCR lawsuit). Considering that state Sen. Paula Dockery is already trying to run against McCollum from the right and getting no traction, it’s hard to see Scott going anywhere with this, though.

• NM-Gov: Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, the lone Dem in the race, is dominating the fundraising front; she raised $1.1 million in the six-month reporting period and has $2.6 million CoH. Among the GOPers, former state party chair Allen Weh leads both in money raised ($691K, although $500K was a personal loan) and CoH ($544K). Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez raised $428K and sits on $364K CoH.

• PA-Gov: Here’s a blow to, well, everybody in the Democratic field; after not being able to find two-thirds support for anybody, the AFL-CIO won’t be endorsing any particular candidate in the Dem primary. Former Philadephia city controller Jonathan Saidel got their Lt. Gov. endorsement.

• AL-05: Party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (most recently in the news for forgetting his party-switch and billing the DCCC for expenditures) surprised his GOP primary opponents at a debate by asking them sign a unity pledge that the losers of the primary would campaign for the winner in November. No thanks, said both Mo Brooks and Les Philip.

• DE-AL: Looks like wealthy self-funder Michelle Rollins, the NRCC’s preferred recruit in the race, has some competition on the big bucks front in the GOP primary. Real estate developer Glen Urquhart just announced that he has $512K in his account (of course, $500K of that came from his own pocket).

• FL-08: Alan Grayson had another big fundraising quarter, thanks in large part to netroots moneybombing (especially his March event which brought in $500K). He raised $803K in the last three months, bringing his CoH total to $1.5 million (along with the possibility of writing checks to himself).

• HI-01: CQ has an interesting piece on HI-01 that focuses primarily on just how difficult it is (especially for “mainland” pollsters) to poll in Hawaii. With only two polls of this race having seen light of day so far, the main takeaway may be that anyone’s guess is as good as mine where the race stands.

• MI-01: One of the top Republicans on everyone’s candidate list for the newly-opened seat in MI-01 has said that he won’t run. State House minority leader Kevin Elsenheimer said he won’t run, even though he’s termed out of the House and needs something else to do. (Elsenheimer, from the Traverse City area, is disadvantaged by not coming from the Upper Peninsula portion of the district.)

• MS-04: Here’s one other eye-catching fundraising note: a Dem incumbent who got outraised by Republican opposition previously considered inconsequential. Rep. Gene Taylor raised $41K and has $221K CoH, while GOP state Rep. Steven Palazzo raised $125K and has at least $100K CoH. Let’s hope Taylor doesn’t hit the “snooze” button for another quarter. National Journal’s latest fundraising outline also has noteworthy numbers from Charlie Dent (PA-15), Dan Debicella (CT-04), and Rick Crawford (AR-01).

• Redistricting: With the Fair Districts redistricting initiative seeming destined to make the ballot in Florida, now the Republican-controlled legislature is trying to get its own redistricting initiative on the ballot, in an apparent effort to clarify (or gut) the Fair Districts proposals. The Senate’s proposal deals with the thorny questions of VRA-mandated districts and communities of interest, which aren’t addressed in satisfactory manner by the original initiatives, which forbid designing districts in a manner that is favorable to one party or the other.

• Demographics: Josh Goodman has an interesting look at population change in Texas, similar to some work we’ve done at SSP over the last few years; he finds that while Texas’s largest counties are becoming swingier, its fastest-growing counties are still pretty solidly Republican (although the growth in these counties is in demographics that aren’t likely Republican). Of course, the parts of the state that are becoming less and less of the state, percentage-wise — the rural parts — have become even more conservative than the fast-growing exurbs, so in a way that’s progress too.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/13 (Morning Edition)

  • CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer says she raised $2.4 million in Q1, with $8.7 mil on hand. GOPer Tom Campbell raised $1.6 mil. No word yet from the other Republicans.
  • NC-Sen: Cal Cunningham is launching his first TV ad, in introductory spot. Apparently the buy (so far) is just $45K. Separately, Cunningham told the AP that he doesn’t support the card check provisions of the Employee Free Choice Act, despite apparently telling a Teamsters official that he does. Still, the Teamsters are standing by their endorsement of Cunningham.
  • AL-07: Collingwood Research for Shelia Smoot (3/30-4/1, likely Democratic primary voters):

    • Shelia Smoot (D): 33

    Earl Hilliard Jr. (D): 28

    Terry Sewell (D): 12

    Martha Bozeman (D): 6

    Undecided/other: 20

    (MoE: 4%)

  • FL-24: Steak baron Craig Miller says he raised $340K in his first two months in his race to unseat Dem Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. There’s still a very competitive GOP primary to contend with, though.
  • MA-04: Surprise, surprise: Laura Ingraham is full of shit. The wingnut radio hostess tweeted some b.s. “rumor” that Barney Frank was going to retire. Frank did not hesitate to call Ingraham’s post a “lie.”
  • NY-14: Reshma Saujani raised $400K in Q1 in her bid to unseat Rep. Carolyn Maloney in the Democratic primary. Maloney, however, raised $475K and has $2 million on hand.
  • PA-12: Joe Biden, who is originally from Pennsylvania, will return to the state of his birth later this month to campaign for Dem Mark Critz in the upcoming PA-12 special election.
  • PA-17: Another Pennsylvania ballot challenge, this time against Dem Sheila Dow-Ford, has come undone in the courtroom. Dow-Ford is challenging Rep. Tim Holden in the primary.
  • DCCC: D-Trip Chair Chris Van Hollen was a busy man over the congressional recess. In addition to mucking up the HI-01 special election, he also campaigned for Reps. Leonard Boswell, Steve Kagen (twice), Mark Schauer and Gary Peters.
  • Polltopia: Voting is now open in PPP’s next pick-a-poll. I don’t think we’ve tried to freep these before, but come on, people – don’t you want to see a poll of PA-12?
  • WATN?: Former NM-01 Rep. Heather Wilson is being treated for thyroid cancer. We wish her a speedy recovery. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Jim Saxton (NJ-03) has joined up with – you’ll never believe it – a DC lobbying firm. It never ends.
  • Babka: Did you know that Green’s babkas are so dense that airport x-ray scanners cannot see through them? Extra density = extra deliciousness – and, apparently, good insulation against high-frequency electromagnetic radiation. If only Lex Luthor had known!

    • KY-Sen: Conway Makes His Move in Dem Primary

    SurveyUSA (4/9-11, likely voters, 3/1-3 in parens):

    Rand Paul (R): 45 (42)

    Trey Grayson (R): 30 (27)

    Others: 6 (11)

    Undecided: 19 (19)

    (MoE: 4.7%)

    Dan Mongiardo (D): 35 (45)

    Jack Conway (D): 32 (27)

    Others: 11 (9)

    Undecided: 21 (19)

    (MoE: 3.9%)

    There’s not much movement in the Republican Senate primary in the Bluegrass State, where Rand Paul is maintaining a 15-pt. lead over establishment choice Trey Grayson. That comes despite fundraising having trailed off significantly for Paul (maybe his supporters dug up all the bullion they could find hidden in their yards), but he seems to have already locked in enough TV advertising to keep his substantial edge over the next month.

    The real movement is on the Democratic side, where AG Jack Conway, usually down double-digits to Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, is suddenly within 3. (Maybe the attacks on Mongiardo’s first-class business travel hit their mark?) Weirdly, though, the crosstabs seem very odd: while Conway is perceived as more liberal than the pro-life Mongiardo, Conway leads among self-described conservative and pro-life Democrats while Dr. Dan is up among liberal and pro-choice Democrats. Two possible explanations from the digest’s comments thread, both of which are very plausible, are that Mongiardo still has a lot of goodwill among liberals for almost taking down Jim Bunning in 2004, while Conway’s day job as AG may win over lots of law-and-order types.

    Finally, for the second poll in a row, SurveyUSA declined to poll head-to-heads, instead just doing a Generic R vs. Generic D (and I know that Rand Paul ain’t no Generic R). This month, Generic R wins 44-41 over Generic D (up from a 1-point gap last time).

    RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen

    NV-Sen, NV-Gov, NV-03: Both Reids and Titus Trail

    Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (4/5-7, likely voters, 2/22-24 in parens):

    Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (40)

    Danny Tarkanian (R): 39 (51)

    Scott Ashjian (T): 11 (NA)

    Undecided: 11 (9)

    Harry Reid (D-inc): 38 (39)

    Sue Lowden (R): 46 (52)

    Scott Ashjian (T): 5 (NA)

    Undecided: 11 (9)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Sue Lowden (R): 45 (47)

    Danny Tarkanian (R): 27 (29)

    Sharron Angle (R): 5 (8)

    Chad Christensen (R): 4 (NA)

    John Chachas (R): 3 (1)

    Undecided: 16 (15)

    (MoE: ±6%)

    Mason-Dixon is doing a few things differently from their last batch of polling: maybe most importantly, they’ve started to do a three-way including Jon Scott Ashjian (here listed simply as “Scott”), which would explain Harry Reid’s slightly improved position. (Last time, they tested head-to-heads against the top 3 Republicans — Sharron Angle seems to have faded from relevance since their last poll — and then did a test of Reid, Generic R, and Generic Teabagger.)

    I’m not sure polling Ashjian is that wise, as he may be in jail rather than campaigning come November (but there’s always the possibility that if Ashjian falls, another equally random teabagger quickly takes his place. Interestingly, Ashjian’s presence makes a big difference in the Danny Tarkanian matchup (most likely because Tarkanian isn’t inspiring much loyalty, as seen with his declining primary numbers… although, who knows, maybe there’s a kernel of truth to that Armenian-American vote-splitting charge) but much less impact on the Sue Lowden matchup.

    Here are the gubernatorial numbers:

    Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 25 (30)

    Brian Sandoval (R): 39 (37)

    Michael Montadon (R): 7 (9)

    Undecided: 29 (24)

    (MoE: ±6%)

    Rory Reid (D): 35 (29)

    Brian Sandoval (R): 50 (51)

    Undecided: 15 (20)

    Rory Reid (D): 42 (42)

    Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 40 (38)

    Undecided: 18 (20)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Not much change here. Rory Reid is still holding his own against thoroughly damaged GOP incumbent Jim Gibbons, but the chances of Gibbons surviving his primary against Brian Sandoval seem to be getting even slimmer.

    Finally, as if that weren’t enough to worry about, we’ve got a new problem brewing in NV-03 (trendlines from 11/30-12/2-2009):

    Dina Titus (D-inc): 44 (40)

    Joe Heck (R): 49 (40)

    Undecided: 7 (20)

    (MoE: ±6%)

    An earlier LVRJ poll had Titus tied with former state Sen. Joe Heck, and now Heck has pulled 5 points ahead, similar to his own internal released a few weeks ago. There are a couple things at work here: for starters, Titus can’t be helped by the reverse coattails coming downticket from father and son Reid. That’s compounded by Las Vegas’s particularly bad economy, crushed by the foreclosure crisis and the drop in construction, and compounded even further, as the LVRJ points out, by $1.3 million in spending by outside interests trying to sink Titus over her pro-HCR vote. Heck is fairly moderate as far as GOPers go, coming complete with his own charges of flip-flopping regarding raising or not raising taxes… hmmm, maybe Nevada’s nascent Tea Party should get involved in some RINO-hunting here too (hint hint)?

    RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen | NV-Gov | NV-03