Swing State Project – Page 309 – Campaign and Election News

SSP Daily Digest: 10/1

• NH-Sen: ARG, mateys! The New Hampshire-based pollsters find that Republican AG Kelly Ayotte is keelhauling Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in the Senate race, although with lots of undecideds: 41-34. This is their first look at the Ayotte/Hodes matchup. (UPDATE: Oh, come on… I just noticed that ARG also has Barack Obama’s NH approval at 34/57 and even Gov. John Lynch at 37/40. So take this poll with a mighty hunk o’ pirate salt.) Also today, Ayotte’s primary opposition is lining up. Businessman Jim Bender says he’s forming an exploratory committee, and Ovide Lamontagne is setting up a testing-the-waters 527 to raise funds.

• NV-Sen: Former state GOP chair, former one-term state Senator, former co-owner of the Sahara casino, and former Miss New Jersey 1973 Sue Lowden (and former Reid donor, back in the 1980s) is officially in the race against Harry Reid. Democrats are pointing to her close ties to John Ensign, while even tradmed pundits like Chris Cillizza are left wondering if her resume is “somewhat thin” for the task of going against Reid.

• VT-Gov: Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie announced today that he will run for the Republican nomination for the open gubernatorial race in Vermont. His previous silence on the issue since Jim Douglas’s retirement announcement had suggested he wasn’t going to run, but now apparently he’s all in. Dubie is socially conservative (at least by Vermont standards), so if he’s the standard bearer (and this probably means that recent party-switching Auditor Tom Salmon, who said he wouldn’t run if Dubie ran, won’t run now) that may improve Dem odds at picking up the seat. Of course, Dem odds mostly turn on what the Progressive Party does.

• GA-12: Two developments in the 12th, where Rep. John Barrow is already facing two Republicans (doctor and self-proclaimed top recruit Wayne Mosely, and Thunderbolt Fire Chief Carl Smith). A third GOPer, Savannah party activist Jeanne Seaver, is also getting into the field. And on Barrow’s left, former state Sen. Regina Thomas is considering another primary run. Although Blue Dog Barrow should theoretically be vulnerable to a challenge from an African-American Democrat in this almost half-black district, Thomas pulled in only 24% of the primary vote in a seemingly underfunded and underplanned challenge last year. (H/t TheUnknown285.)

• NC-11: This might be a slightly more imposing challenge to Rep. Heath Shuler than the guy who promised to serve only one term: Jeff Miller, a Hendersonville businessman who received a Presidential Citizens Medal for his work taking WWII veterans to Washington DC to see the WWII war memorial. Miller is “contemplating” the race.

• OR-05: Sad to say, it looks like we won’t have Mike Erickson to make fun of again next year; the GOP found a somewhat more viable challenger to freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader. State Rep. Scott Bruun says he’ll run; he says he has a “moderate middle sensibility” (which plays well in his wealthy corner of the Clackamas County suburbs, but may subject him to a primary challenge from elsewhere). Bruun ran in 1996 against Earl Blumenauer in the dark-blue 3rd and lost by a wide margin. Getting down into the weeds, his departure also opens up HD 37, the kind of suburban district that Democrats in the state legislature have been vacuuming up in the last few cycles.

• PA-04: Disregard what I said yesterday; don’t quite count out state House minority whip Mike Turzai yet. Despite the entry of lawyer Keith Rothfus to the GOP field yesterday, Turzai notified the media that he’s still considering a run against Rep. Jason Altmire, but is currently preoccupied by the budget stalemate in Harrisburg and will decide later.

NY-23: Scozzafava Narrowly Leads 3-Way Race

Siena (pdf) (9/27-29, likely voters):

Bill Owens (D): 28

Dede Scozzafava (R): 35

Doug Hoffman (C): 16

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Siena is the first public pollster to look at the confusing three-way race in NY-23, and they find that Dede Scozzafava, the moderate GOP Assemblywoman, has the edge — but it’s certainly not an imposing lead. And with her better known than her two unknown opponents, her opponents may have more room to grow. Scozzafava’s favorables are 33/20 with 47% with no opinion, while Owens is at 23-12 (64% undecided) and Hoffman is at 16-13 (71% undecided).

Siena helpfully provides geographic crosstabs. Scozzafava has the biggest edge in the western North Country (Jefferson, Lewis, and St. Lawrence Counties), 53-23-10. (Not coincidentally, that’s Dede’s Assembly district.) Owens has a big edge in the less chilly Madison, Oswego, and Oneida Counties, closer in to Syracuse (30-20-20). Strangely, Owens has only a small lead in what should be his best area, the eastern North Country (Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton and Hamilton) — 32-31-18 — as he’s best known for his work to redevelop the BRAC’d former Air Force base at Plattsburgh. If he consolidates his hometown support, he’d be right in the thick of things. (Discussion already underway in conspiracy‘s diary.)

RaceTracker: NY-23

NY-23: Scozzafava leads 35-28-16

Five weeks from election day and Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R) leads Bill Owens (D) by seven points with Doug Hoffman (C) trailing in the first independent poll of the special election to replace Army Secretary John McHugh in the House of Representatives for New York’s 23rd District.

The topline numbers from the Siena College Research Institute (LV, 9/27-29, MoE 3.9%) are:

Scozzafava 35%

Owens 28%

Hoffman 16%

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedf…

“This is a wide open race. One in five voters is currently undecided. Add to that the fact that one-third of Scozzafava’s current supporters and one-quarter of Owens’s current supporters say they are not very certain of their choice and that they very well may change their minds between now and Election Day.”

I think it fair to say this is a total tossup, particulary with the better known Scozzafava having such a small lead. I will update with more thoughts when I’ve poured over some of the internals.

UPDATE

Looking at the 2008 presidential race in the district we find Obama won Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Madison, Oswego and St. Lawrence counties. McCain carried Fulton, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lewis and Oneida.

The three-way makes it difficult to extrapolate but Scozzafava leads big in the West (which is where her Assembly district is located) matching McCain in Jefferson and Lewis counties but also in St. Lawrence where Obama won big.

On the contrary Owens leads in some of the central counties she represents and which McCain won, namely Madison, Oneiga and Oswego.

The good news is they are tied in places Obama won big – Clinton, Essex and Franklin. As andgarden mentions in the comments Obama is popular in the district so if people there get to know Owens and like what they hear I think there is a good chance he can take this one.

On the flipside McCain did well in Fulton and Hamilton so Owens is overperforming there though I suspect that has more to do with Hoffman taking conservative votes.

UPDATE 2

Favorables are interesting. Scozzafava clocks in at 33-20-47, favorable, unfavorable, no opinion. Hopefully Hoffman’s kamikaze act helps make people form a negative opinion.

Owens is at 23-12-64 so significantly more room to grow. Hoffman at 16-13-71.

Top issues, economy and health care, unsuprisingly, and the candidates are split.

McHugh’s endorsement would be key according to the numbers but if Obama comes out for Owens is it at all likely he will oppose his new boss? Interesting.

Community Trust

Every community, it goes without saying, is built on trust – and nowhere is this more true than online. In the digital realm, where you can’t see and seldom know the people you’re interacting with, being able to trust the folks on the other end of the line is of the utmost importance. We need to know, as best we are able, that people are who they say they are, that they mean what they say, and that they have the community’s best interests at heart.

Conversely, pretense, hidden agendas, and fabrications can do great damage to a place like this. Without a basic level of trust, an online community loses its credibility, its cohesiveness, and its influence. Both the administrators and the users of this site understand this well, and it’s why we all spend as much time as we do trying hard to preserve the trust we’ve built here.

Because of this fundamental need to maintain trust, in the political blogosphere, we hold campaigns to the highest of standards. Candidates come here seeking our support, our volunteer hours, and our money. These are serious things to ask for, and if you’re going to ask for them, we expect nothing but total scrupulousness.

When a campaign violates this trust, it’s an abuse of our entire community and cannot be allowed to stand. Because of the higher standard we hold campaign officials to, it is our policy to make such violations public when we discover them. And unfortunately, we have discovered another such transgression.

Andrew Eldredge-Martin is the campaign manager for Doug Pike, a Democrat running in Pennsylvania’s Sixth Congressional District. Drew, who has posted here as DrewEM, used sockpuppet accounts to post disparaging remarks about another Democrat running in the PA-06 primary. As it turns out, Drew also used a sockpuppet account at Daily Kos (where I am also an administrator) over the years to comment on two other races he managed, Bob Lord’s campaign against John Shadegg in AZ-03 in 2008, and Chris Carney’s campaign against Don Sherwood in PA-10 in 2006.

Needless to say, this kind of behavior is completely unacceptable. If campaign officials have something to say about the very race they’re working on, then it is mandatory that they speak out in their own voice. Pretending to be a disinterested observer, especially for the purposes of spreading negative information about opponents, is a complete violation of our trust. For the most senior official, a campaign manager, to do so is especially unacceptable.

I offered Drew the chance to apologize, and told him I would include any apology in this post. Not only did I never hear back, but it appears Drew used the opportunity to edit the bio and signature line of his sockpuppet account at Daily Kos, in a belated attempt at transparency. This information was not present in the sockpuppet account when we first discovered Drew’s malfeasance.

Because it is our policy to ban those who create sockpuppet accounts, we have done so here. But this should also be a lesson to anyone – and to any campaign – contemplating something similar. We will remain eternally vigilant in policing this site. We will not tolerate this kind of behavior. And we will do everything in our power to ensure that the trust which animates this site remains unbroken.

AR-Sen: GOP Smurfs Beating Lincoln in New Poll

Rasmussen (9/28, likely voters):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39

Gilbert Baker (R): 47

Undecided: 8

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41

Curtis Coleman (R): 43

Undecided: 11

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40

Tom Cox (R): 43

Undecided: 11

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41

Kim Hendren (R): 44

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Back in August, Public Policy Polling put out a release with Lincoln in tossups with some of these same names. Research 2000, more recently, had a somewhat healthier diagnosis: she was ahead of all of these guys by anywhere between 7 and 19 points, but she only did so while scoring in the mid-40s — well under that magical 50% line. Whether or not Rasmussen is painting an exaggerated picture (and, arguably, they’re not that far out of line with PPP) is questionable, but the fact remains that Lincoln hasn’t posted a higher showing than the low or mid-40s in any poll we’ve seen this year.

RaceTracker: AR-Sen

VA-Gov: Rasmussen Poll Has McDonnell Bouncing Back

Rasmussen (9/29, likely voters, 9/16):

Creigh Deeds (D): 42 (46)

Bob McDonnell (R): 51 (48)

Undecided: 7 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

In the great “Is it tightening or not?” debate of the Commonwealth of Virginia, Rasmussen has come down on the side of SurveyUSA after showing a tight race in their previous poll. PPP, InsiderAdvantage, the Washington Post, and Research 2000 have all shown narrowing margins in their most recent polls, but SUSA and Rasmussen are the freshest out of the oven. I don’t think we’ll have to wait long for yet another batch of Virginia polls to be released, though.

RaceTracker: VA-Gov

SSP Daily Digest: 9/30

• NH-Sen: Joe Biden will be on duty to help Paul Hodes (who hasn’t set the world on fire with his fundraising so far) at a DC fundraiser on Oct. 5.

• SC-Sen: Democrats appear to have a candidate with some financial heft to take on Sen. Jim DeMint next year. The Indigo Journal writes that Rock Hill attorney Chad McGowan recently told local Democrats that he’ll be running full-time for the Senate nomination beginning in early October. (J)

• CA-Gov: Looks like the period of meditation on the Governor’s race that Jerry Brown promised us didn’t take very long: he’s opening his exploratory committee today. Meanwhile, Meg Whitman managed to poach another member of the Steve Poizner camp; former state GOP chair and former Assembly minority leader Bob Naylor dropped his Poizner endorsement and switched to Whitman.

• NJ-Gov: Yet another pollster sees the same story developing in New Jersey (this time it’s Quinnipiac). The race is tightening to within the margin of error, but it’s not because Jon Corzine is getting much better (he’s still not breaking 40); instead, Chris Christie is slowly deflating, while moderate independent Chris Daggett gains. Today’s poll has Christie up 43-39-12, a definite improvement over last month’s 47-37-9.

• VA-Gov: Creigh Deeds is finally playing one of his aces in the hole: Sen. Mark Warner, who generally polls as by far the most popular political figure in the state, cut an ad for Deeds and will be campaiging for him on weekends. Deeds also got an endorsement which, superficially, seems like a big coup, but isn’t, really: former GOP governor Linwood Holton. (The moderate Holton is father-in-law to Tim Kaine and endorsed Barack Obama in 2008.)

• NH-02: It looks like ex-Rep. Charlie Bass is getting off the fence and moving closer to an effort to reclaim his old seat, which he lost to Paul Hodes in 2006 but will be an open seat in 2010. He’ll be opening his exploratory committee tomorrow. (Although — maybe this is a possible sign of ambivalence — he says he’s opening the committee because he needs somewhere by quarter’s end to put all the unsolicited checks he’s received lately, or else he’ll have to return them.) He’ll probably still face a primary against the more conservative 2008 candidate, Jennifer Horn, assuming he runs.

• NY-23: As expected, Gov. Paterson has set Nov. 3rd for the NY-23 special election, the same day as other elections in the state (such as the NYC mayoral race), and of course the gubernatorial races in NJ and VA. GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava also got an endorsement that falls into the “as expected” category: from the Main Street Partnership, the ideological caucus for the dwindling ranks of moderate House Republicans.

• PA-04, 08: Two sophomore Democrats in Pennsylvania both got Republican challengers. In the Pittsburgh suburbs’ R+6 4th, Keith Rothfus, a Republican lawyer and former Dept. of Homeland Security official, will challenge Rep. Jason Altmire. (Apparently the NRCC’s top recruit, state House minority whip Mike Turzai, has been balking so far.) Meanwhile, in the less challenging 8th in the Philly burbs, computer consultant Jeffrey Schott is slated to run against Rep. Patrick Murphy.

Ohio Redistricting

Welcome. This is my first diary of any kind here on SSP, and it’s about a topic that’s both geographically local to me and very relevant on a national scale. Ohio is perhaps the most pre-eminent swing state in the nation, rivaled only by states like Missouri, Florida, and Iowa. Ohio is important because of it’s wealth of electoral votes, 7th most in the nation. In 2002, the Republicans were in complete control of redistricting, and drew a map that they hoped would produce a 12-6 split in their favor. Due to demographic changes, scandals, and a national wave of strength for the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, the Democrats now lead in the Ohio congressional delegation by a 10-8 margin. I have seen many maps made for Ohio redistricting, and they all seem to be quite similar in nature, involving incumbent protection. What I wanted to do was create a compact map, where most counties wouldn’t have to be split apart, and one that would result in lots of competitive districts. As such, the map you’re about to see may not make sense to you, and would certainly anger people on both sides of the aisle. I’m not sure it’s entirely realistic, but this is what I would do if I was drawing Ohio’s congressional map.

Navy – District 1 (Cincinnati – Steve Driehaus/Democrat) – This district is now totally within Hamilton County. It doesn’t change a whole lot, but should be friendlier to Driehaus. It loses the Butler county portion and adds some of Cincinnati’s eastern suburbs, while keeping his base in downtown and Cincy’s west side. His old district went 55/44 for Obama, and I have this version standing at a PVI of about D+3 or D+4. It’s a district that the Rs could still win with the right candidate, but it Leans Democrat.

Hamilton West – Obama 180,665 (56.5%), McCain 136,054 (42.5%)

District 1 total – Obama 180,665 (57.0%), McCain 136,054 (43.0%)

Dark Green – District 2 (Southwest – John Boehner/Republican vs Jean Schmidt/Republican) – This is the first of 2 R vs R fights under this proposal, and it’s a good one. House minority leader Boehner against dirtbag Jean Schmidt. I have to believe that Boehner would win such a contest, thus ridding Ohio’s delegation of their arguably worst member. Schmidt would have a better shot moving into the new 7th and challenging freshman Steve Austria. This district would be Safe Republican.

Hamilton East – McCain 52,192, Obama 28,137

Butler – McCain 101,537 (60.9%), Obama 62,871 (37.7%)

Warren – McCain 69,741 (67.6%), Obama 32,272 (31.4%)

District 2 total – McCain 223,470 (64.4%), Obama 123,280 (35.6%)

Purple – District 3 (Dayton – Mike Turner/Republican) – Competitiveness, along with compactness, was a major goal of my redistricting map. One person that certainly won’t like my ideas is Mike Turner. I’ve paired Montgomery County with Clark County to create what amounts to a closely contested district in the Dayton area. To do this I removed Republican havens Warren and Highland counties. Turner’s fairly entrenched in the Dayton area, and has a strong base of support, so he’d be fine, but this configuration did go narrowly for Obama in 2008. If it were to be an open seat, it’d be a Toss Up.

Preble – McCain 13,340 (64.7%), 6,846 (33.2%)

Montgomery – Obama 136,110 (51.8%), McCain 123,040 (46.8%)

Clark – McCain 31,821 (51.3%), Obama 29,122 (46.9%)

District 3 total – Obama 172,078 (50.6%), McCain 168,201 (49.4%)

Red – District 4 (West – Jim Jordan/Republican) – Jim Jordan’s district shifts south and west a bit, taking in chunks of John Boehner and Bob Latta’s old territory while giving up some land in the north central part of the state. No big deal for Jordan though, this is a Safe Republican district.

Paulding – McCain 5,204 (54.6%), Obama 4,043 (42.4%)

Putnam – McCain 12,855 (70.1%), Obama 5,169 (28.2%)

Hancock – McCain 21,898 (61.0%), Obama 13,357 (37.2%)

Hardin – McCain 7,553 (59.3%), Obama 4,847 (38.0%)

Allen – McCain 26,167 (60.2%), Obama 16,575 (38.1%)

Van Wert – McCain 8,993 (62.7%), Obama 5,046 (35.2%)

Mercer – McCain 14,730 (71.3%), Obama 5,636 (27.3%)

Auglaize – McCain 15,938 (70.0%), Obama 6,492 (28.5%)

Darke – McCain 17,226 (68.4%), Obama 7,456 (29.6%)

Shelby – McCain 15,005 (67.7%), Obama 6,777 (30.6%)

Logan – McCain 13,440 (62.6%), Obama 7,615 (35.5%

Miami – McCain 22,217 (66.0%), Obama 10,739 (31.9%)

Champaign – McCain 10,919 (59,2%), Obama 7,161 (38.9%)

Union – McCain 15,049 (63.2%), Obama 8,348 (35.1%)

District 4 total – McCain 191,694 (63.7%) – Obama 109,261 (36.3%)

Yellow – District 5 (North – Open) – This is one of two open districts I have created, since I have primary fights occurring in every corner of the state. It’s a fairly compact district and one that’s fairly closely contested as well, combining Democratic strongholds in Lorain and Erie counties with Republican areas in Wyandot, Crawford, and Marion counties. The district went for Obama in 2008 but went for Bush in 2004. It’s a definite Toss Up, as it’s PVI is right around even. A lot would depend on who runs here for both sides.

Ottawa – Obama 11,760 (52.1%), McCain 10,417 (46.1%)

Sandusky – Obama 15,101 (51.0%), McCain 13,935 (47.1%)

Seneca – McCain 13,588 (50.6%), Obama 12,751 (47.5%)

Wyandot – McCain 6,190 (57.3%), Obama 4,362 (40.4%)

Marion – McCain 14,840 (53.9%), Obama 12,016 (43.7%)

Crawford – McCain 12,050 (58.4%), Obama 8,045 (39.0%)

Erie – Obama 22,277 (55.7%), McCain 17,080 (42.7%)

Huron – McCain 10,001 (50.2%), Obama 9,461 (47.5%)

Lorain – Obama 77,719 (57.5%), McCain 55,031 (40.7%)

District 5 total – Obama 173,492 (53.1%), McCain 153,132 (46.9%)

Turquoise – District 6 (Southeast – Zach Space/Democrat vs Charlie Wilson/Democrat) – Here’s the first D vs D primary fight, and it occurs between these two sophomore reps in the southeast. I combined these two because let’s face it, there’s just not enough territory to protect every Democrat in the east even if I wanted to. The district runs all the way from the southern tip of the state up north into Tuscarawas, Carroll, and Columbiana counties just south of Canton and Youngstown. Years ago this was a safe D seat, but Obama’s poor performance here has left the door open for the right Republican. This is probably the toughest seat in Ohio to rate because of it’s democratic history coupled with Obama’s very poor performance. I give it a rating of Leans Republican, just because no Dem candidate since Clinton has carried it.

Lawrence – McCain 15,055 (56.8%), Obama 10,956 (41.3%)

Jackson – McCain 7,837 (58.9%), Obama 5,108 (38.4%)

Gallia – McCain 8,047 (62.1%), Obama 4,616 (35.6%)

Meigs – McCain 5,891 (58.2%), Obama 3,990 (39.4%)

Athens – Obama 19,258 (66.5%), McCain 9,107 (31.4%)

Washington – McCain 16,638 (56.9%), Obama 12,082 (41.3%)

Monroe – Obama 3,623 (53.2%), McCain 2,973 (43.7%)

Noble – McCain 3,387 (56.0%), Obama 2,419 (40.0%)

Guernsey – McCain 8,950 (53.2%), Obama 7,369 (43.8%)

Belmont – Obama 15,986 (50.3%), McCain 15,127 (47.6%)

Tuscarawas – Obama 20,957 (50.1%), McCain 19,940 (47.6%)

Harrison – McCain 3,717 (50.0%), Obama 3,495 (47.0%)

Carroll – McCain 6,952 (50.7%), Obama 6,302 (46.0%)

Jefferson – Obama 17,266 (49.0%), McCain 17,216 (48.9%)

Columbiana – McCain 24,891 (52.8%), Obama 21,222 (45.1%)

District 6 total – McCain 165,728 (51.1%) – Obama 158,318 (48.9%)

Gray – District 7 (South – Steve Austria/Republican) – Nobody’s going to be more thrilled about this proposal than Steve Austria. He ends up taking in a district that encompasses much of southern Ohio, stretching from his Greene County home to the Cincinnati exurbs, then far eastward through cities like Chillicothe and Portsmouth. It takes in a lot of Jean Schmidt’s old territory along the Ohio River. Although some of the counties in the east part of this district are swingy in nature, Austria should have no problem in the new 7th, which I would classify as Safe Republican.

Greene – McCain 39,252 (58.4%), Obama 27,162 (40.4%)

Clinton – McCain 12,037 (64.6%), Obama 6,267 (33.6%)

Fayette – McCain 6,931 (61.3%), Obama 4,199 (37.1%)

Clermont – McCain 60,287 (65.8%), Obama 30,124 (32.9%)

Brown – McCain 11,873 (60.7%), Obama 7,280 (37.2%)

Highland – McCain 11,390 (62.5%), Obama 6,437 (35.3%)

Adams – McCain 6,725 (60.8%), Obama 4,041 (36.5%)

Ross – McCain 16,027 (53.0%), Obama 13,636 (45.1%)

Pike – McCain 6,005 (49.5%), Obama 5,833 (48.1%)

Scioto – McCain 16,472 (52.2%), Obama 14,470 (45.8%)

Vinton – McCain 2,962 (53.6%), Obama 2,405 (43.5%)

District 7 – McCain 189,961 (60.9%) – Obama 121,854 (39.1%)

Lavender – District 8 (Northeast/Central – Patrick Tiberi/Republican) – Patrick Tiberi gets a nice break here, as his district moves entirely out of Franklin county, and picks up a new region in the northeastern-central part of the state. This district runs from his Delaware County base to Zanesville in the east, up north to Mansfield. I classify this is as a Safe Republican District.

Delaware – McCain 53,670 (59.3%), Obama 35,848 (39.6%)

Morrow – McCain 9,787 (60.7%), Obama 5,960 (37.0%)

Richland – McCain 32,590 (55.8%), Obama 24,473 (41.9%)

Knox – McCain 16,207 (59.0%), Obama 10,702 (39.0%)

Licking – McCain 30,545 (59.6%), Obama 19,768 (38.6%)

Holmes – McCain 7,590 (69.6%), Obama 3,074 (28.2%)

Coshocton – McCain 8,583 (51.5%), Obama 7,580 (45.5%)

Muskingum – McCain 20,174 (52.9%), Obama 17,209 (45.1%)

Morgan – McCain 3,387 (52.1%), Obama 2,921 (44.9%)

District 8 total – McCain 182,533 (58.8%) – Obama 127,535 (41.2%)

Teal – District 9 (Northwest/Toledo – Marcy Kaptur/Democrat vs Bob Latta/Republican) – I’m extremely proud of this district, which covers the northwestern corner of the state. It also produces our first D vs R battle royal. Luckily for Democrats, it shouldn’t even be a contest, as Marcy Kaptur of Toledo, Ohio’s longest running representative, takes on Bob Latta, a redshirt freshman out of Bowling Green. Latta’s a lying scumbag, which is why I wanted to take him out. In this map, he doesn’t even really have a base to counter Kaptur, considering that his home Wood County went 53/46 for Obama in 2008, and even the rural counties out west of Toledo took hard swings to the left. In an open seat, I’d call this district Likely Democrat, which in this battle means that Kaptur will probably cruise. I suppose Latta could move into the neighboring 5th, but that district would still be a much tougher win than his current district.

Williams – McCain 9,618 (53.9%), Obama 7,892 (44.2%)

Defiance – McCain 9,334 (54.7%), Obama 7,394 (43.3%)

Henry – McCain 8,091 (55.7%), Obama 6,163 (42.4%)

Fulton – McCain 11,414 (53.3%), Obama 9,627 (45.0%)

Wood – Obama 32,956 (52.5%), McCain 28,819 (45.9%)

Lucas – Obama 134,729 (64.5%), McCain 70,865 (34.0%)

9th District Total – Obama 198,761 (59.0%), McCain 138,141 (41.0%)

Pink – District 10 (Cleveland West – Dennis Kucinich/Democrat) – Another member of Ohio’s delegation I dislike is Dennis Kucinich. I didn’t go all out to take him out, which would have been impossible anyway seeing as he’s from Cuyahoga County, but in the name of competition and fairness to the Repubs I did weaken his district significantly as it now includes R-leaning Medina County. This seat still Leans Democrat, but it would certainly make Dennis the Menace sweat things out a bit more, and in an open seat situation, it’s not out of the question that the Republicans could win it with the right candidate.

Cuyahoga West – Obama 177,318 (56.8%), McCain 124,135 (42.7%)

Medina North – McCain 25,460 (55.9%), Obama 19,037 (41.8%)

District 10 Total – Obama 196,355 (56.7%) – McCain 149,595 (43.3%)

Light Green – District 11 (Cleveland East – Marcia Fudge/Democrat) – Still a plurality black district in Eastern Cuyahoga County and little changed, Fudge would have no problem in this Safe Democrat seat. I didn’t bother to make it over 50% black as that would require some serious gerrymandering, probably down into Akron.

Cuyahoga East – Obama 264,518 (78.0%), McCain 72,234 (21.3%)

District 11 Total – Obama 264,518 (78.4%), McCain 72,234 (21.6%)

Light Blue – District 12 (Columbus East – Open) – I don’t think it’s asking much to get 2 Dem representatives out of the Columbus area, and since the Republicans are so hell bent on splitting Columbus apart, here’s your 2nd new district in the state. It’s composed of the Eastern half of Franklin County and extends into Hocking and Perry Counties, which are swingish. Despite the presence of R-leaning Fairfield County, I think that the Democrats would have the advantage here, as it went narrowly for Kerry in 2004 and went big for Obama in 2008 as the entire Columbus area took a hard swing to the left. I rate this as Leans Democrat.

Perry – McCain 7,585 (50.1%), Obama 7,128 (47.1%)

Hocking – McCain 6,201 (49.2%), Obama 6,083 (49.2%)

Fairfield – McCain 40,708 (57.9%), Obama 28,487 (40.5%)

Franklin East – Obama 137,360 (60.0%), McCain 88,029 (38.4%)

District 12 Total – Obama 179,058 (55.7%) – McCain 142,523 (44.3%)

Peach – District 13 (Akron – Betty Sutton/Democrat) – One of the oddities of this map is that Betty Sutton, my representative, wouldn’t be my rep anymore, it’d be Kucinich. Ugg. I guess I’m just taking one for the team. Anyway, Sutton’s district is now centered around Akron and contains all of Summit and Portage Counties. With her popularity and the district’s partisan leanings, she’ll have no problem. In an open seat situation, it’d probably rate as Likely Democrat. Not having to slice up Akron three ways and giving it a district of its own was one of my goals, and this district accomplishes that.

Medina South – McCain 6,325 (52.3%), Obama – 5,577 (46.1%)

Summit – Obama 151,932 (57.7%), McCain 107,937 (41.0%)

Portage – Obama 32,160 (53.3%), McCain 26,959 (44.7%)

District 13 total – Obama 189,669 (57.3%) – McCain 141,221 (42.7%)

Brown – District 14 (Northeast – Steven LaTourette/Republican vs Tim Ryan/Democrat) – And now we come to the battle of the titans, Latourette vs Ryan in Ohio’s northeastern corner. This district stretches from Lake and R-leaning Geauga counties on Cleveland’s east side over to Youngstown and D-leaning Trumbull county along the Pennsylvania border. When the PVI comes out, it’s probably Democratic by a point or two, but its close enough that I consider it to be a Toss Up in an open seat situation, or in this case, a contraction battle for the ages.

Lake – Obama 54,786 (49.3%), McCain 54,441 (49.0%)

Geauga – McCain 28,314 (56.9%), Obama 20,692 (41.6%)

Ashtabula – Obama 24,233 (54.2%), McCain 18,464 (41.3%)

Trumbull – Obama 62,254 (59.8%), McCain 39,319 (37.8%)

Mahoning North – Obama 24,960 (66.4%), McCain 12,056 (32.2%)

District 14 total – Obama 186,925 (55.0%), McCain 152,594 (45.0%)

Orange – District 15 (Columbus West – Mary Jo Kilroy/Democrat) – This district is little changed, and includes the western half of Franklin County along with Madison and Pickaway counties, losing Union to Jim Jordan’s 4th. I rate the district as Leans Democrat, just like the neighboring 12th. I think Kilroy should still be fine with the way Columbus is rapidly turning blue, but in an open seat, like so many other D-leaning seats I’ve created, the R’s would have a good shot at a pickup.

Madison – McCain 10,178 (61.0%), Obama 6,193 (37.1%)

Pickaway – McCain 13,087 (60.3%), Obama 8,229 (37.9%)

Franklin West – Obama 167,784 (58.1%), McCain 117,309 (40.6%)

District 15 Total – Obama 182,206 (56.4%) – McCain 140,574 (43.6%)

Green – District 16 (East Central – John Boccieri/Democrat) – John Boccieri should be a happy man as well. His district doesn’t change a lot, but it does lose Medina County and instead adds in most of Youngstown’s Mahoning County suburbs, which lean heavily D. In an open seat situation, this is definitely a Toss Up, but a strengthened Boccieri would have no problem securing re-election in this Canton-based district.

Mahoning South – Obama 51,396 (59.6%), McCain 33,283 (38.6%)

Stark – Obama 66,712 (50.2%), McCain 63,283 (47.6%)

Wayne – McCain 28,730 (56.4%), Obama 21,144 (41.5%)

Ashland – McCain 14,788 (60.3%), Obama 9,027 (36.8%)

District 16 Total – Obama 161,626 (53.5%) – McCain 140,084 (46.5%)

So to recap, if all 16 seats were open in a given election, here’s the ratings:

Solid R – 4 seats (2nd, 4th, 7th, 8th)

Likely R – 0 seats

Lean R – 1 seat (6th)

Toss Up – 4 seats (3rd, 5th, 14th, 16th)

Lean D – 4 seats (1st, 10th, 12th, 15th)

Likely D – 2 seats (9th, 13th)

Solid D – 1 seat (11th)

And there you have it. Comments, reactions, complaints?

Edit: I’m planning on doing maps for the Ohio House and Ohio Senate as well.

Colorado Redistricting

I am worried about the Colorado Governorship but the Democrats should still control one part of the State Legislature. They have large majorities in both houses. This calls for an incumbent protection plan even though I already expect one because the Democrats want to protect Betsy Markey and John Salazar. Salazar seems pretty safe but I decided to protect him anyway because eventually, the Republicans will find a strong challenger. The two other Republicans should have no problems under this plan. Here are the maps:

District 1 Diana De Gette (D) Blue

This district resembles Betsy Markey’s current district a bit because I extended it out into the heavily Republican prairie. Even though these counties are heavily Republican, they have barely any people. Since Denver is so Democratic, Republicans have no chance at this district. To satisfy minority politicians, this district is also minority majority. Obama probably won 69% of the vote here. Demographics are 8% Black, 38% Hispanic and 48% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 2 Jared Polis (D) Green

Okay, I did not make everyone stronger. I sent Polis’s district out to the Utah border to include Mesa County (Grand Junction) which McCain won by 20,000 votes. Polis should not worry because Boulder County (Boulder) went for Obama by 80,000 votes. Excluding the slice of Jefferson and Adams Counties, the vote results for the new 2nd district were Obama 174,567 and McCain 116,890. I estimate Obama won about 56% of the vote in the Jefferson and Adams County portions so Obama probably won 59% of the vote in the district. Polis is a Boulder Liberal and the district should be Democratic enough to protect him. Demographics are 13% Hispanic and 81% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 3 John Salazar (D) Purple

I removed Grand Junction and nearby Republican counties in return for more ski resort counties in the Rocky Mountains like Eagle County. The Jefferson County part I added should not interrupt the district because it only has about 14% of the district’s population. Overall, Obama probably won 55% of the vote here. Salazar won here easily but now, I am sure he will win reelection here until he retires. Demographics are 22% Hispanic and 72% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 4 Betsy Markey (D) Red

Obama barely lost the old district because it had most of the heavily Republican counties to the east. I took those out and exchanged them with some Democratic territory in Adams County. The 4th district still has Republican Weld County but its votes should be offset by Adams County. Obama probably won 53-54% of the vote here, enough to protect Freshman Betsy Markey. Demographics are 19% Hispanic and 75% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

District 5 Doug Lamborn (R) Yellow

This district was already heavily Republican, even though Obama did much better here than Kerry. Those eastern counties needed to get into a district so I chose this one. Since it retains its base at Colorado Springs, Lamborn should be here indefinitely. McCain probably won 61% of the vote here. Demographics are 5% Black and 14% Hispanic. Status is Safe Republican.

District 6 Mike Coffman (R) Teal

Coffman gets a boost too under the new map. He loses small portions of Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties which lean Democratic. Since Douglas County is the fastest growing county in Colorado, the 6th district does not need much new territory to balance population. I also added heavily Republican Teller County. Overall, the district becomes more Republican. In the later part of the 2010’s, the district might become shaky as more Democrats move into the suburbs. For now, Coffman is safe unless he faces an extremely hard challenge. McCain probably won 55% of the vote. Status is Safe/Likely Republican.

District 7 Ed Perlmutter (D) Gray

I kept the district mostly the way it was. The changes I made were taking out Republican parts of Adams County, a bit of Jefferson and I added a touch of Denver. These changes should make the district even more Democratic, ensuring Perlmutter’s safety. I decided it was too risky to try to swap some territory with the 6th district to weaken Coffman. It would not be worth it because there will be Republican years. The Democratic incumbents need to be as safe as possible. Obama probably won 62% of the vote here. Demographics are 7% Black, 23% Hispanic and 62% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

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VA-Gov: PPP Says Race Tightening, SUSA Does Not Concur

Two new Virginia polls out today. Let’s cut ’em open while they’re still fresh on the table.

Public Policy Polling (9/25-28, likely voters, 8/28-31 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 43 (42)

Bob McDonnell (R): 48 (49)

Undecided: 8 (9)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

More, from Jensen:

Deeds appears to have more room to grow. 53% of the remaining undecideds are Democrats while only 7% are Republicans. Although the fact that Deeds has not locked up those votes yet does show some degree of lukewarmness toward his campaign, those voters are still more than likely going to end up ‘coming home.’ […]

Bob McDonnell’s thesis is having a mixed impact on the race. Only 2% of people who say they supported him a month ago now say they’re going to vote for Deeds, so the extent to which the thesis is changing people’s minds is limited. But it may be playing a role in increasing Democratic turnout. In our last poll those planning to vote this year had voted for John McCain by a 49-45 margin. Now the likely electorate voted for Barack Obama by a 48-45 margin, indicating intended Democratic turnout is now pushing closer to what it was last year. The thesis may not have turned McDonnell votes into Deeds votes, but it looks like it is helping to turn non-voters into Deeds votes.

Jensen goes on to say that if the electorate looks like the one that turned out last November, “Deeds will probably pull this one out by the skin of his teeth”. The idea that Deeds would need an Obama-style turnout operation to win is at least moderately disturbing, but it’s nothing new. However, PPP’s release was the more optimistic of the two polls released today.

SurveyUSA (9/26-28, likely voters, 9/1-3 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 41 (42)

Bob McDonnell (R): 55 (54)

Undecided: 4 (4)

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s an ugly spread for Creigh, but SUSA is looking at a pretty starkly different voter universe than PPP is. PPP’s sample voted for Obama over McCain by a 48-45 margin (up from 49-45 McCain in late August), while SUSA’s last two polls have had 51-44 McCain samples. All other pollsters have shown a tightening race in the past few weeks, so SUSA is either in error or they’ve caught on to something that everyone else has missed:

RaceTracker: VA-Gov