Swing State Project

Drill Here, Drill Now — But What Are The Oil Companies Planning?

Nationally, Drill Here, Drill Now seems to be the only issue where Republicans are gaining any traction with voters during 2008.  For those who don’t know, Drill Here, Drill Now started on the website www.americansolutions.com.  A couple of mouse clicks on the American Solutions website will take you to a screen with friendly welcome from none other than former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.  

Based on where this started, skeptics can easily surmise that Drill Here, Drill Now is nothing more than a political ploy to distract voters from real issues of the 2008 election.  There are many questions about what the oil companies will do if Drill Here, Drill Now actually brings policy changes in Washington.  Do oil companies really want to Drill Here, Drill Now and put more oil on the open market, causing oil prices to go down thus decreasing their record profits?  Could the oil companies and the politicians that are friendly with them have other motives in mind beyond providing less expensive gas at the pumps?

Realize this, there is nothing about Drill Here, Drill Now that will mandate oil companies to start drilling to put more oil on the market.  In fact, all that President Bush and those supporting Drill Here, Drill Now will do is lift long standing moratoriums that have been placed on offshore drilling and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).  Once the moratoriums are lifted, oil companies can start acquiring leases that will allow them to drill in areas that have been off limits, but not mandate them to do so.  In fact, under our market driven economy, the oil companies can, and likely will, sit on the leases until prices are higher and they can make bigger profits.

People throughout the 5th District have been asking where I stand on Drill Here, Drill Now.  My answer is this: I can support drilling domestic oil reserves if it is needed to stabilize the price of oil for consumers in the United States or if conditions around the world would cause a shortage in oil supplies.  However, if we are going to make leases available for the oil reserves offshore or in ANWR, the leases must have language to mandate that oil companies actually put the oil on the market for consumers in the United States.  I also believe we must address the issue of the 68 million acres oil companies currently have available for domestic drilling but have yet to tap.  If we need to Drill Here, Drill Now, then it must be done to benefit the people by providing affordable gas and heating oil not as a way to make larger profits for the oil companies.

However, Drill Here, Drill Now remains a short term solution at best.  I still believe the only long term solution is a real national energy policy that will invest in domestically produced alternative fuel solutions.  

Sad News Out of Clarion County — Sealy Closing Strattanville Plant

I was very sorry to read in the Tri-County Sunday that Sealy Corporation has decided to close their plant in Strattanville, Clarion County.  The plant, which has been in operation since 1981, will leave 114 workers without jobs when the plant ceases operations in late October.  Sadly, this is the hard truth of how the failing national economy can hit close to home.  We’ll keep the 114 people affected by the closing of the Sealy plant and their families in our thoughts and prayers.

The Week In Review:

This week we attended fairs in Clinton, Elk, Jefferson (Sykesville), Warren and Venango counties and met with the Sierra Club in State College.  We also paid a visit and met with some people at the Centre County HQ on Thursday.  Kelly, Amanda and I missed today’s Potter / Cameron County Democratic Picnic because the location was changed from the Austin Dam Memorial Park to a location in Coudersport.  I had the event on my schedule since May at the original location.  We did make a stop in Emporium for lunch.

At the Warren County Fair

At the Venango County 4H Fair

Schedule for the Week:

Monday: McKean County Fair — 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM

Wednesday: Emporium / Cameron County — Attending Hilliard for Senate Event — 6:00 PM

Thursday: Bud George Day Picnic — Clearfield County — 4:30 PM to 8:30 PM

  NOTE – Governor Ed Rendell and Auditor General Jack Wagner to attend.

Friday: McCracken for Congress Fundraiser — DuBois Lions Club Sky Lodge  6 PM

  Tickets are available for $20 – Please email mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net.  

Saturday: Car Show — Cameron County early afternoon — McKean County Fair evening.

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Please feel free to share your thoughts with us.  We will continue to travel this district and greet as many people as possible.  Don’t forget to pick up your campaign materials. They can be found on our campaign website.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

I’ll say it up front, I’ve always been bullish on Al Franken, even when others here were ripping on him, and already giving up on the race, and lamenting how the race would’ve been better with Ciresi or Nelson-Pallmeyer.  And one of the arguments used against Franken was that he had pissed off some other prominent Minnesota Democrats like Congresspeople Betty McCollum and Keith Ellison and Amy Klobuchar.  There was quite a bit of hand-wringing going on.

Well, take a look below the fold to see what’s happened in the last couple days.  (And from the links, yes, I got this stuff from MN Publius.

To start off, last week Al Franken visited homeowners facing foreclosure with Keith Ellison.  And unlike previous statements, Ellison offered praise for Franken.

Franken and Ellison also took part in last Saturday’s Minneapolis Urban League’s annual Family Day Celebration at North Commons Park and made stops at two small shopping malls in South Minneapolis. Franken said he’s proud to be on the Democratic ticket headed by U.S. Senator Barack Obama and including Ellison, who is seeking his second congressional term.

“He [Obama] is going to need as many Democratic U.S. senators as possible to make sure that his agenda gets through,” candidate Franken said of Obama’s potential presidency. “I know that Keith has worked hard to get bills passed for addressing and alleviating the housing crisis. When I get to Washington, I look forward to standing beside Keith as we take the next step.”

Having two Senate Democrats in Congress will be helpful to push forward needed housing and anti-predatory mortgage lending legislation, said Ellison. “We need both houses [of Congress] working together and an administration working for us. Al isn’t just another Democrat, but a dynamic, energetic, charismatic voice that can help rally the public will to real solutions.“

Then came the news that Sen. Amy Klobuchar is campaigning for Franken.

I’ve gotten to know Al well as he’s traveled the state building a grassroots movement for change, and I know he’ll be a champion for Minnesota families in Washington.

On issues like health care, energy, the war in Iraq, and our economy here at home, Al will reject the failed policies of the Bush administration and fight for change. In fact, just today Al offered some bold, common-sense solutions to strengthen Minnesota’s schools. Al will never sell out to the special interests – he’ll stay loyal to Minnesotans and advocate everyday to help the middle class.

And last but not least, Betty McCollum, who acknowledges her earlier reservations about Franken.

“Crisis” now describes a long list of issues facing Minnesota families and our country. From healthcare to energy prices, the economy to ending the Iraq war – America faces serious challenges that require urgent action.  In Washington, we need leaders who are willing to take America in a new direction.  I am proud of the work Democrats in the U.S. House have accomplished to pass important legislation.  Unfortunately, much of our work has been stalled in the U.S. Senate by an obstructionist Republican minority.  That needs to change.

As I look forward to 2009, I want to be represented in the U.S. Senate by two Minnesota senators who will support and vote to advance our positive, action oriented Democratic agenda to strengthen our economy, keep our nation secure, and invest in our country’s future.  That means in this year’s race for the U.S. Senate I will be voting for Al Franken.

This spring I voiced concerns about material from Al’s past career. To have remained silent when asked would have been hypocritical and dishonest.  I am confident my concerns have been heard and since then I have watched Al’s campaign take steps to address these matters. Now, I believe Al and his campaign are appropriately focused on building a solid relationship with voters based on our shared Minnesota values, ideals, and hopes for the future.  Like all candidates, Al understands that he is not only asking Minnesotans for their vote, but for their trust. As November 4th approaches, Al Franken will earn the trust of Minnesotans and I intend to work with him to win this election.

Fourth District DFLers, thank you for your on-going support.  This year I will continue to campaign hard to turn out the vote to elect Barack Obama to the White House, Al Franken to the U.S. Senate, and win my own re-election to Congress.  I know we will all work together in the 4th District to win in November and together take Minnesota and America in a new direction.

Franken has also just released this powerful ad called “Dr. Bob”, of a conservative Republican who praises Al for his patriotism and his commitment to our troops.

And please, don’t cite the SurveyUSA poll as evidence of how flawed Franken is.  The poll’s crosstabs are bonkers.

Lurking just beneath the surface was a raw reality for the Coleman campaign: the poll’s partisan splits were completely bonkers.

The poll showed a sample of 33% self-identified DFLers and 32% self-identified Republicans. I wasn’t the only one to notice how insane that split is — my former colleague Eric Black also noticed:

But Rasmussen, which doesn’t release full cross-tabs to non-members like me, suggests that Coleman’s share of Democrats has declined from 20 to 10 percent and that this may be the factor that cost him the lead he held a month ago.

Little change

SUSA has shown little change since its previous poll on the race a month earlier. The most suspicious thing to me about SUSA’s current poll is that the Minnesota sample consisted of 33 percent Democrats and 32 percent Republicans.  Most polls (including the previous SUSA poll in Minnesota) find that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 10-plus percentage points. The poll scholars on whom I rely for guidance tend to have a higher general opinion of SUSA than Rasmussen (and not too high an opinion of any robo-dialers). But if you’re looking for a reason to disbelieve this one, with its large and sturdy Coleman lead, the partisan makeup of the sample is suspicious.

Eric is in the right neighborhood here.  Most polls shoot for about a 36-28 DFL advantage in party self-identification, perhaps a couple of points more due to Barack Obama’s crushing victory in the Super-Duper Tuesday precinct caucuses. SurveyUSA is simply way out in left field with this poll.

According to one reader who apparently has a PhD in such things, if you multiply out the difference in partisan split between the last SurveyUSA poll and this one, Franken is actually doing about four points better than the previous S-USA poll — but I haven’t confirmed that yet…largely because I would need a PhD to understand what the heck I was doing.

I’ll add to that.  From looking at the crosstabs a bit closer, another thing doesn’t make sense.  Coleman’s best age group is young people.  Does that make ANY sense to anybody out there??  Like I’ve said in the past, to take this poll at face value, even forgetting the bizarre partisan split, would be to say that come November, there’s going to be a shitload (a statistical term) of young people that vote for Barack Obama for President, and then pull the lever for Norm Coleman.  Let that sink in.  It makes about as much sense as “Vegetarians for Bush”.

And all this is before the GOP convention heads to St. Paul, and Coleman is forced to be tied to the hip to the national party, which he’s trying to distance himself from.  Senators from other states who are up for re-election are skipping out, but Coleman can’t.  And keep in mind Al’s torrid fundraising pace, which will allow him to be financially competitive with Coleman.

So please, people, stop writing Franken off.  It doesn’t do us any good.

Races to Watch:

Today’s Ratings Changes:

LA-04 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup

Democrats have a key advantage to help offset the Republican lean of this ancestrally Democratic but R+6.5 district: namely, a big gap in recruitment quality. Democrat Paul Carmouche has served as the District Attorney of Caddo Parish, the most populous parish of the district, for 30 years, and is expected to romp in the September primary. The Republican field is more fluid (and less impressive): trucking executive Chris Gorman, Chamber of Commerce official Jeff Thompson, and physician John Fleming have all raised or loaned themselves credible amounts, and it’s possible that the GOP primary won’t be decided until the October 4th runoff.

Carmouche has out-raised and out-banked his GOP opponents, and is leading the field in his campaign’s internal polling so far. While that gap may close once the GOP candidates raise their name recognition, Carmouche’s law and order credentials and conservative style are a solid fit for this district, and the DCCC has already reserved a big chunk of ad time in this dirt cheap media market.

LA-07 (Boustany): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

A late-breaking race, the odds are long for Democrats in this R+7.4 district, but the DCCC’s recruitment of state Senator Don Cravins, Jr. makes this contest a bit more interesting. A self-styled conservative Democrat, Cravins raised an impressive $107,000 in the last two weeks of June, and has since been added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program. While Cravins, who is African-American, would have to beat history in order to become elected in this 25% black district, it’s a challenge worth paying attention to.

MO-09 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Despite enduring a not-so friendly primary, Republicans begin the general election campaign for the open seat of GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof with an early edge in this R+6.5 district. Democrats have a credible candidate in state Rep. Judy Baker, who by all accounts ran a strong campaign to win her primary against a former state House speaker and Senate minority leader. The DCCC is taking this race seriously, adding Baker to Red to Blue and placing a $940,000 ad time reservation, which could help narrow the race this fall.

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

In case you haven’t noticed, we have something new up at C4O. We wanted to start this because all of you gave us so many good suggestions, but we couldn’t fit them all onto one page. That’s why we’re doing something that will hopefully enable us to give the Rethuglicans a real run for their money.

Want to see what I’m talking about?

This is our brand new C4O Rising Stars project! As you all already know, 2008 is a horrible year to be a CReep. Bush & Cheney are at historic lows of approval. John McBush thinks he can win by being just like Bush. And now, all these House & Senate GOP candidates are trying to “break ties” to the top of the ticket while still accepting whatever help they can get from them. This is why I think it’s time for us to take additional action.

We have many great Rising Star Democrats who may now be seen as “hopeless”, but we know this is just plain wrong. These candidates already have the GOP running scared, and they’re already making a whole lot of progress in turning red seats blue. Let’s help these rising stars make it all the way to DC!

We’ve listened to your suggestions, and with your help we’ve picked some great Democrats from all over the country. We have House candidates and Senate candidates. We have candidates from coast to coast, from the Wild West to the Deep South to the Great Midwest. What these candidates have in common is their success so far in making the Republicans run scared and their ability to win these supposedly “difficult races”.

So please if you can, donate to help us in this cause. These are true progressive heroes who are taking the good fight onto GOP turf. And with our help, these good Democrats can win! 🙂

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama & The Liberal OC)

In case you missed it, something really frightening is coming to Orange County this week. Believe it or not, The Lord of Darkness (aka Dick Cheney) will be coming to here to raise some money for a good friend of his. He’ll apparently be holding a fundraiser at Richard Nixon’s beloved Casa Pacifica (how fitting!) in San Clemente for CA-44’s own Ken Calvert.

Scared yet? I guess the GOP is. I mean, really… They’re bringing in the only person in DC more unpopular than Dubya himself? And this is supposed to attract big $$$$ for Calvert? Oh my, the GOP is in hard times!

Well, we Democrats need not be. We’re making big gains in the 44th District. The partisan gap is narrowing fast, and we’re blessed to have a terrific candidate in Bill Hedrick. Unlike Calvert, Hedrick isn’t a Bush-Cheney acolyte. And unlike Calvert, Hedrick won’t put personal profit over the best interest of the people of the 44th District.

Calvert may have Bush & Cheney on his side, but Hedrick has us… All of us! Let’s show the GOP big wigs that our people power beats their dirty money.

Are you ready to show Dick Cheney & Ken Calvert what we think of their “heckuva job”?  

This diary is in reaction to the diary about former Democrat Joe Lieberman giving more money to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) than most Democratic Senators. It’s also a try to get another “use it or lose it” campaign going.

All numbers below the fold.

UPDATE 8/13/2008:

When I looked through all the numbers I was surprised that several Senators did not have a PAC. I now learned that Sen. Schumer does have a PAC (Impact). For some reason it’s not listed on Open Secret’s Chuck Schumer page. His PAC has contributed to the DSCC and individual Senate candidates. I’ve updated the numbers below.

Listed below are all the members of the Democratic Caucus in the U.S. Senate with their current cash-on-hand numbers of their campaign accounts and their PACs. Listed below are the amounts given to the DSCC through their campaign accounts (not sure if there are any legal limits) and through their PACs (I think the legal limit here is $15,000 per quarter, not sure though). Also listed are contributions either through their campaign committees or their PACs to individual Democratic candidtes for the Senate in 2008.

I researched the numbers using the FEC homepage and the list of leadership PACs provided by Open Secrets.

Daniel Akaka (2012):

current CoH: $101k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $50,000

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $50,000

Max Baucus (2008)

current CoH: $5,457k

current PAC CoH: $309k

DSCC: $585,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $75,000

total given: $690,000

Evan Bayh (2010)

current CoH: $10,634k

current PAC CoH: $572k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $0

2008 Sen candidates: $12,000

total given: $12,000

Joe Biden (2008)

current CoH: 2,000k

current PAC CoH: $49k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $35,000

total given: $65,000

Jeff Bingaman (2012)

current CoH: $759k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $250,000

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $29,000

total given: $279,000

Barbara Boxer (2010)

current CoH: 3,547k

current PAC CoH: $427k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $79,500

total given: $109,500

Sherrod Brown (2012)

current CoH: $768k

current PAC CoH:64k

DSCC: $150,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $91,000

total given: $271,000

Robert Byrd (2012)

current CoH: $110k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $0

Maria Cantwell (2012)

current CoH: $81k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $10,000

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $1,000

total given: $11,000

Ben Cardin (2012)

current CoH: $195k

current PAC CoH: $32k

DSCC: $105,000

DSCC through PAC: $20,000

2008 Sen candidates: $6,600  

total given: $131,600

Thomas Carper (2012)

current CoH: $903k

current PAC CoH: $174k

DSCC: $350,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $92,000

total given: $472,000

Bob Casey (2012)

current CoH: $92k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $10,000

total given: $10,000

Hillary Clinton (2012)

current CoH: $278k

current PAC CoH: $5k

DSCC: $100,000

DSCC through PAC: $0

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $100,000

Kent Conrad (2012)

current CoH: $2,067k

current PAC CoH: $77k

DSCC: $200,000

DSCC through PAC: $45,000

2008 Sen candidates: $92,500

total given: $337,500

Chris Dodd (2010)

current CoH: $123k

current PAC CoH: $115k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $0

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $0

Byron Dorgan (2010)

current CoH: $1,430k

current PAC CoH: $89k

DSCC: $75,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $16,500

total given: $121,500

Dick Durbin (2008)

current CoH: $8,145k

current PAC CoH: $121k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $150,000

total given: $180,000

Russ Feingold (2010)

current CoH: $2,277k

current PAC CoH: $369K

DSCC: $45,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $46,500

total given: $121,500

Dianne Feinstein (2012)

current CoH: $2,697k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $500,000

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $500,000

Tom Harkin (2008)

current CoH: $4,109k

current PAC CoH: $21k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $20,000

2008 Sen candidates: $85,000

total given: 105,000

Daniel Inouye (2010)

current CoH: $1,206k

current PAC CoH: $21k

DSCC: $175,000

DSCC through PAC: $30k

2008 Sen candidates: $120,000 (plus $10k for Ted Stevens)

total given: $325,000

Tim Johnson (2008)

current CoH: $2,724k

current PAC CoH: $58k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $0

2008 Sen candidates: $11,500

total given: $11,500

Ted Kennedy (2012)

current CoH: $5,657k

current PAC CoH: $130k

DSCC: $250,000

DSCC through PAC: $15,000

2008 Senate candidates: $49,500

total given: $314,500

John Kerry (2008)

current CoH: $8,829k

current PAC CoH: $80k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Senate candidates: $27,000

total given: $67,000

Amy Klobuchar (2012)

current CoH: $504k

current PAC CoH: $73k

DSCC: $50,000

DSCC through PAC: $43,500

2008 Sen candidates: $48,300

total given: $141,800

Herb Kohl (2012)

current CoH: $15k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $0

Mary Landrieu (2008)

current CoH: $5,515k

current PAC CoH: $23k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $78,500

total given: $108,500

Frank Lautenberg (2008)

current CoH: $1,290k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $0

Patrick Leahy (2010)

current CoH: $1,121k

current PAC CoH: $180k

DSCC: $110,000

DSCC through PAC: $15,000

2008 Sen candidates: $100,000

total given: $225,000

Carl Levin (2008)

current CoH: 4,341k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $28,000

total given: $28,000

Blanche Lincoln (2010)

current CoH: $526k

current PAC CoH: $289k

DSCC: $100,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $68,000

total given: $198,000

Claire McCaskill (2012)

current CoH: $78k

current PAC CoH: $19k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $28,300

total given: $58,300

Robert Menendez (2012)

current CoH: $824k

current PAC CoH: $267k

DSCC: $110,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $72,500

total given: $212,500

Barbara Mikulski (2010)

current CoH: $658k

current PAC CoH: $51k

DSCC: $10,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $39,000

total given: $79,000

Patty Murray (2010)

current CoH: $2,047k

current PAC CoH: $108k

DSCC: $200,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $108,500

total given: $338,500

Bill Nelson (2012)

current CoH: $1,817k

current PAC CoH: $26k

DSCC: $150,000

DSCC through PAC: $20,000

2008 Sen candidates: $63,500

total given: $233,500

Ben Nelson (2012)

current CoH: $296k

current PAC CoH: $211k

DSCC: $90,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $25,000

total given: $145,000

Barack Obama (2010)

current CoH: $122k

current PAC CoH: $96k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $15,000

2008 Sen candidates: $68,000

total given: $83,000

Mark Pryor (2008)

current CoH: $3,606k

current PAC CoH: $90k

DSCC: $200,000

DSCC through PAC: $15,000

2008 Sen candidates: $52,400

total given: $267,400

Jack Reed (2008)

current CoH: $3,788k

current PAC CoH: $87k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $112,500

total given: $142,500

Harry Reid (2010)

current CoH: $2,511k

current PAC CoH: $685k

DSCC: $105,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $200,000

total given: $335,000

Jay Rockefeller (2008)

current CoH: $3,336k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $350,000

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $4,000

total given: $354,000

Ken Salazar (2010)

current CoH: $1,838k

current PAC CoH: $60k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $55,000

total given: $85,000

Chuck Schumer (2010)

Updated!

current CoH: $10,309k

current PAC CoH: $150k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $210,000

total given: $240,000

Debbie Stabenow (2012)

current CoH: $347k

current PAC CoH: $71k

DSCC: $60,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $88,000

total given: $178,000

Jon Tester (2012)

current CoH: $62k

current PAC CoH: $31k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $35,000

2008 Sen candidates: $4,000

total given: $39,000

Jim Webb (2012)

current CoH: $171k

current PAC CoH: $67k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $20,000

2008 Sen candidates: $11,000

total given: $31,000

Sheldon Whitehouse (2012)

current CoH: $41k

current PAC CoH: $28k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $43,500

2008 Sen candidates: $90,000

total given: $133,500

Ron Wyden (2010)

current CoH: $1,266k

current PAC CoH: $186k

DSCC: $100,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $18,000

total given: $148,000

Independents caucsing with Democrats:

Bernie Sanders (2012)

current CoH: $55k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $0

Joe Lieberman (2012)

current CoH: 2,011k

current PAC CoH: $489k

DSCC: $100,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $22,500

total given: $152,500

These numbers vary from the Lieberman diary cited above because any contributions after June 30 were not included in the totals.

Notes:

All amounts above are for the 2007/2008 cycle up until June 30, 2008. Any money contributed to the DSCC or individual candidates by these Senators since July 1 is not included in the totals! So, there may have been some changes in the past few weeks.

Also, please take each Senator individually. Some have very low Cash-on-Hand numbers, so they wouldn’t be able to give much. Others have millions and are sitting on it. Others have competetive races this year. Some are Freshmen, some are recuperating from their presidential campaigns.

Anyway, there clearly are a couple of people who should be targeted by another “use it or lose it” campaign. What do you think?

Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD & Open Left

Rasmussen (8/7, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/7 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 53 (49)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 42 (38)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Despite a flurry of paid and earned media that came with his gubernatorial primary victory over Sarah Steelman earlier this week, it looks like Kenny Hulshof’s nomination bounce has not arrived. He’ll have a steep hill to climb if he intends to pull even with Democrat Jay Nixon, the state’s longtime attorney general.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

I posted this on daily kos last night. Please read it and let me know what you think.

Unfortunately, my home state of Louisiana is one of the few states that will probably shift ideologically towards the GOP this election cycle. I apologize to the other 49 states (even Utah). If I were Obama, I’d focus on GA or NC or MS.

But the idea that Sen. Mary Landrieu is vulnerable this cycle is untrue. Yes, she was first elected then reelected by the slimest of razor thin margins in ’96 and ’02, but she actually faced opponents then. John N. Kennedy, her “Republican” opponent is a joke. This is evidenced by the fact that he switched from DEM to GOP in an overwhelmingly DEM year. One may argue that Hurricane Katrina hurt her chances, but most African-American refugees moved either to Baton Rouge or Lafayette. (On a side note many who moved out of state to Houston were from St. Bernard Parish, a republican-dominated suburb.)

Also, most people don’t blame her for the government’s response. Indeed, she is seen as one, perhaps the only one, who gave her all to see Louisiana renewed. Most Louisianians, myself included, blame both Bush and then-Gov. Blanco. Quite a few blame Vitter for not having any gall to stand up to Bush. But few blame Mary.

And, last but not least, she has millions more than Kennedy to spend on this campaign. Even if the NRSC pumps $ into this race (i hope they do) it’ll be a waste. Don’t worry, Mary will win a 3rd term much more solidly than her first 2.

Part two: why Erik Fleming is a viable candidate in MS-A.

In 2006, Erik managed more than a third of the vote. I know what you’re thinking…he got beat 2:1 in a democratic year and he’s a viable candidate? But hear me out.

First, Sen. Obama’s coattails will greatly benefit Democrats in Mississippi. GOTV was not nearly as well organised in 2006 as it is now. Black voter registration drives will meet their goal of registering 100,000 new voters this cycle.

Second, Ronnie Musgrove’s coattails will help. The DSCC will be dumping $$$ into this state for Musrove, so why can’t they drop 50k for Fleming? He could do a lot with that money. Oh, and all this talk about Musgrove’s party ID not being on the special election ballot giving him an advantage is sillyness, as everyone in MS remembers his governorship. Everyone knows he’s a Democrat. (And, barring a macaca gaffe on his part, he will probably beat Sen. Wicker.) Studies show that people willing to vote for one party in a federal race are more willing to support that same party in other federal races. This only showed effect on down ballot, not the presidential level. Won’t help Obama much, but it could help Fleming.

Third, Fleming was totally unknown in 2006. His grass roots campaign was not enough, sadly. He was drastically outspent because he raised very little money (less than $45,000 for the whole cycle). Unfortunately, his pitiful fundraising abilities look to repeat this cycle unless you help him out.  But now he has gotten through one statewide race. He’ll win his second if we help him enough.

Fourth, Trent Lott, Fleming’s 06 opponent, was much more powerful in DC and much more popular in MS than Thad Cochrane. He was a tougher opponent. And Erik walked away with more than a third of the vote, a % that will only increase as GOTV efforts strengthen in the South. Cochrane gonna have to go sometime, why not now?

Fifth, he is a liberal. I know! A liberal in mississippi! Finally. He has relatively liberal social views, wants withdrawl from Iraq, and is against drilling in ANWR. See his website for all his views.

But, and this is the good bit, he is not seen as ‘tax and spend librul’ like Vivian Figures is in AL. He can paint himself as a moderate to conservative like Musgrove. Low name recognition is a good thing sometimes 🙂

So, please, if you were planning to give a few dollars to Landrieu to ensure her reelection, don’t. Instead, Donate to Erik Fleming!

And, most importantly of all, think positive.

Yes, MS-A is the longest of longshots, but we didn’t take Congress in aught six by thinking about what we couldn’t win. It’s called a 50 state strategy for a reason. Never say never.

Almost forgot, we have to get rid of Dollar Bill Jefferson in NOLA. Support Helena Moreno for LA-02!

Ivan Moore Research (7/18-22, likely voters):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 52

Don Young (R-inc.): 37

Don Wright (I): 7

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 40

Sean Parnell (R): 43

Don Wright (I): 5

(n=505)

Lost in all the hubbub from a couple weeks ago when several polls showed Mark Begich opening up a huge lead on Ted Stevens (even before the Stevens indictment) was that, in the fine print, Ivan Moore also polled Alaska’s House seat as well. Former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz leads corruption-scented incumbent Don Young by a sizable margin but barely loses to comparatively clean Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell.

The good news for Berkowitz: the primary matchups are also polled, and this shows Young with an edge over Parnell. The poll was taken just as Trooper-gate was breaking (in fact, that’s one of the problems with polling over multiple days: Trooper-gate was significantly more broken on the 22nd than on the 18th), so it may show Parnell getting hit with some Palin blowback. He may be in an even worse position now, as he’s taken a decidedly low-profile approach since the scandal surfaced. The primary is August 26.

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 54

Diane Benson (D): 25

Don Wright (D?): 5

(n=284)

Don Young (R-inc.): 46

Sean Parnell (R): 38

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 6

(n=250)

Special thanks to Ivan Moore for sharing these numbers with the Swing State Project. The full results are available below the fold.