IVR Polls (likely voters, 4/8):
Michael Skelly (D): 39%
John Culberson (R-inc): 57%
Undecided: 4%
(MoE: ±4.2%)
This isn’t too far off from an earlier poll which showed Culberson up by 52-33. This is a deep red district — with a PVI of R+15.6, it’s about on par with Nick Lampson’s TX-22. Skelly has turned some heads by raising a reported $750,000 in the first quarter of 2008, but he definitely still has an uphill climb here.
The pollster has some more details on the poll in the diaries.
Oregon House Speaker and U.S. Senate candidate Jeff Merkley has his first TV spot up on the air!
The ad highlights Jeff’s history as a fighter for Oregon’s progressive values and Jeff’s commitment to going to the U.S. Senate to end the war in Iraq, protect a woman’s right to choose and gain accessible health care for all.
Check it out:
Carla–Netroots Outreach, Jeff Merkley for Oregon
The field has narrowed in the race against freshman GOP Rep. Bill “Brain Fade” Sali:
Former Micron executive Larry Grant said Thursday morning that he will not run for the U.S. House in Idaho’s 1st congressional district.
Instead, Grant endorsed Walt Minnick, a former timber executive who ran for the U.S. Senate in 1996. […]
Grant lost to Republican Bill Sali in the 2006 election and was under pressure from some in the Idaho Democratic Party to drop out this time.
Grant appeared at a news conference in Boise with Minnick and Democratic former Gov. Cecil Andrus.
This isn’t very surprising. Grant has had very little fundraising success in his second kick at the can (just $60K raised last year), while Minnick’s been posting huge numbers (over $400K raised in the 4th quarter).
It’s going to be a lot tougher to beat Sali this time, but hopefully Minnick’s large cash reserves should make this nutter sweat.
Rasmussen (likely voters, 4/7):
Mark Begich (D): 45%
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46%
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Rasmussen (likely voters, 4/8, 2/18 in parens)
Tom Udall (D): 54% (50%)
Steve Pearce (R): 40% (42%)Tom Udall (D): 56% (50%)
Heather Wilson (R): 36% (43%)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
How’s that nasty primary working out for you, NM GOP?
(H/T: X-Stryker)
Michael Skelly made news recently by reporting extremely robust fundraising for a first time Democratic challenger in a traditionally Republican district. A high dollar DC pollster surveyed the race back in February and found him trailing incumbent John Culberson 52 to 33, with 16% undecided. After voters heard ‘positive bios’ for both candidates, that became a tie at 44. With the recent flurry of news on Skelly’s fundraising, I thought I’d poll the race and see if there had been movement. Skelly’s campaign has been out blockwalking, and I have noticed many online ads, but I don’t think they have done any traditional advertising at this point.
My poll asked a series of questions about possible presidential matchups, the Senate race and finally the CD7 race. I also asked about the 2004 Bush/Kerry vote, which came back 64/36 for Bush, in line with the actual results for the district. Of the presidential matchups, Obama did slightly better than Clinton against McCain, but the Republican held a large lead in both matchups.
In the CD7 race, I identified each candidate’s party, which may explain the unexpectedly low undecided response. Only 4% said they were undecided, with Culberson receiving 57% to Skelly’s 39%. On the other hand, there was a significant amount of mixed-party support in various forms. Some went with Cornyn and Skelly, others with Noriega and Culberson, some that went Democratic for president but Republican for the lower ticket races and some that went McCain, Noriega and Skelly. Less than half supported all three Republicans, though that is probably the best spin for the Democrats to come out of this poll. Enough voters are willing to consider a non-Republican, but a Democratic candidate would need flawless execution and a little luck.
For CD7, the older the voter, the more likely the support for Culberson. Voters under 40 were +8 for Culberson, 40-59 were +18 and 60+ were +23. There was no gender gap, as Culberson got the same percentage from both men and women. Non-white percentages are too small to provide meaningful crosstabs, but Skelly does lead Culberson here.
For the Senate race, Cornyn leads Noriega 58 to 39 in the district. Despite the similar results, about 6% of Cornyn’s support went with Skelly, and a similar amount of Culberson’s support went with Noriega. In general, the Noriega/Culberson flippers have a higher percentage of older women than average, and the Cornyn/Skelly flippers have a higher percentage of men than average, not concentrated in any one age group.
536 polled 4/8/08, Margin of error 4.2%
New Rasmussen poll on the Alaska Senate race!
Rasmussen: Alaska Senate 4/7, 500 LV, MOE +/-4.5%
Mark Begich (D): 45%
Ted Stevens (R): 46%
Some other candidate: 4%
Not sure: 5%
Lots of pundits were quick to discount last December’s R2K poll for DKos, but they can’t deny it any longer – this race is officially a Tossup.
More recent polls below the flip!
cross-posted from Election Inspection
Latest Senate Polls for 2008:
| State | Incumbent | Poll | Dem Candidate | % | Rep Candidate | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | Sessions | Rasmussen 4/2 | Figures | 36 | Sessions | 57 |
| AK | Stevens | Rasmussen 4/7 | Begich | 45 | Stevens | 46 |
| CO | Allard | Rasmussen 3/17 | Mark Udall | 46 | Schaffer | 43 |
| GA | Chambliss | Rasmussen 3/20 | Vernon Jones | 30 | Chambliss | 56 |
| GA | Chambliss | Rasmussen 3/20 | Dale Cardwell | 36 | Chambliss | 52 |
| GA | Chambliss | Rasmussen 3/20 | Jim Martin | 33 | Chambliss | 51 |
| ME | Collins | Rasmussen 4/3 | Allen | 38 | Collins | 54 |
| MN | Coleman | Rasmussen 3/19 | Franken | 46 | Coleman | 48 |
| NH | Sununu | ARG 3/14-3/17 | Shaheen | 47 | Sununu | 33 |
| NJ | Lautenberg | Rasmussen 3/27 | Lautenberg | 54 | Joe Pennacchio | 36 |
| NJ | Lautenberg | Rasmussen 3/27 | Lautenberg | 54 | Murray Sabrin | 35 |
| SD | Johnson | Rasmussen 3/4 | Johnson | 63 | Joel Dykstra | 28 |
| TN | Alexander | Rasmussen 4/3 | Bob Tuke | 30 | Alexander | 59 |
| TN | Alexander | Rasmussen 4/3 | Mike Padgett | 31 | Alexander | 58 |
| VA | John Warner | Rasmussen 3/26 | Mark Warner | 55 | Gilmore | 39 |
Today’s new poll is Alaska, where Rasmussen shows a Tossup. Since March, 4 races have been polled as Solid Republican Hold (AL, GA, ME, TN), 2 races are Solid Democratic Hold (NJ, SD), 3 races are Tossups (AK, CO, MN), and 2 races are Solid Democratic Gain. New Mexico hasn’t been polled since February, but it too rates Solid Democratic Gain, while Oregon’s February polls shows it to be Solid Republican Hold at this time. That is regardless of whether Wilson, Pearce, Merkley, or Novick wins their respective primaries. Louisiana has not been polled since December and rated Slight Democratic Hold at that time.
For races where the most recent poll is older than March, check out Election Inspection’s Senate Polls page.
Loading ...Today, it was my plan to start focusing less on presidential diaries and more on Congressional races. But, thanks to John McCain, I have the opportunity to write a diary that focuses on a little of both. As we all know, the corrupt Rick Renzi is retiring to face a grand jusry, but it gets even better. McCain is doing his best to help Democrats win this seat According to the progressive blog Down With Tyranny! McCain has decided to endorse a candidate who used his ifluence to get his rapist son out of jail.
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Complicating the matter further, is that McCain, in a pique of typically hysterical vindictive pigheadedness, forced the local AZ-01 Republican Party to jettison their favorite candidate to try to hold Renzi’s seat, Kris Mayes (who McCain holds a grudge against because she once worked for the Arizona Republic), in favor of a McCain crony, Ken Bennett. The problem with Bennett isn’t that he’s a McCain crony but that he is widely hated in AZ-01 for using his influence to free his son from punishment after the younger Bennett was convicted of using broomsticks and flashlights in 40 incidents of rape against 18 young boys, many repeatedly.
In case there is any doubt about Clifton Bennet’s guilt.
The son of state Senate President Ken Bennett admitted in court Monday to assaulting middle school boys with a broomstick in their rectal areas, but a judge allowed charges against him to be reduced from 18 to one, and he may avoid jail.
Three of the 18 victims, all boys between the ages of 11 and 15, are from Tucson, and the families are angry that 18-year-old Clifton Bennett and co-defendant Kyle Wheeler, 19, were not charged with sexual assault.
So Mr. Straight Talk does not really care about crime, or victims’ rights. He doesn’t even care about his own party. America needs to know the truth about McCain. But in the meantime, we owe him out thanks for the assist in turning this seat blue.
Freeze ’em on a stick:
IA-04:
Kurt Meyer (D): $131K raised; $109K CoH
PA-04:
Melissa Hart (R): $141K raised; $393K CoH
Jason Altmire (D-inc): $471K raised; $1.35M CoH
NJ-03:
Chris Myers (R): $335K raised; $288K CoH (12/1-3/31)
Jack Kelly (R): $306K raised; $281K CoH
AK-AL:
Ethan Berkowitz (D): >$275K raised; $280K CoH
TX-23:
Ciro Rodriguez (D-inc): $950K CoH
Lyle Larson (R): $60K CoH
NM-01:
Darren White (R): $233K raised; ~$300K CoH
CT-05:
Chris Murphy (D-inc): >$400K raised; $1.55M CoH
1Q Fundraising Results Thread | Son of… | Revenge of… | Raiders of the… | Alien vs. Predator vs… | Grandson of…
Continuing through the alphabet.
Texas has 32 representatives: 19 Republicans and 13 Democrats
The filing deadline was Jan 2, and the primary was March 4, with a runoff on April 8, where needed
District: TX-01
Location Eastern TX, bordering LA and a tiny bit of AR, including Tyler
Representative Louie Gohmert (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 68-30
2004 margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 69-31
Notes on opponents In 2004, Gohmert ousted Max Sandlin, each spent about the same ($1.8 mill for Gohmert, $1.6 for Sandlin). The 2006 opponent raised little
Current opponents No Democrats
Demographics 55th most rural (49.1%), 72nd lowest income (median = $33K), 90th most Blacks (18.9%), 25th most Republican
Assessment Free ride
District: TX-02
Location Oh, the odd shapes of TX districts! This one mostly runs east west, from the LA border (and the Gulf) west to outer Houston. But it also extends north a bit.
Representative Ted Poe (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 66-33
2004 margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 63-37
Notes on opponents In 2004, Poe ousted Nick Lampson, spending $1.5 million to Lampson’s $2.4. The 2006 opponent raise little
Current opponents No Democrats
Demographics 94th most Blacks (19%), 74th most Republican
Assessment Free ride
District: TX-03
Location North central TX, including Plano and Garland
Representative Sam Johnson (R)
First elected 1991
2006 margin 63-35
2004 margin 86-8-6 against minor parties
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Tom Daley raised $5K, $3K COH; Johnson has $750K COH
Demographics 61st highest income (median = $61K), 61st fewest veterans (9.5%), 25th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-04
Location Northeastern TX, bordering OK and AR, including Texarkana
Representative Ralph Hall (R)
First elected 1980
2006 margin 64-33
2004 margin 68-30
Bush margin 2004 70-30
Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Nickerson raised $200K to Hall’s $1.1 million, in 2006, Glenn Melancon raised less than $100K
Current opponents Glenn Melancon is running again; he has raised $25K but has no COH; Hall has $350K COH, not much for an incumbent with a challenger
Demographics 44th most rural (50.4%), 25th most Republican
Assessment Long shot, but not totally long…. Hall is getting old (born 1923 – he is the oldest person in the House) and his fundraising has been anemic.
District: TX-05
Location Shaped like a C; the inner-top of the C is near Dallas, it goes south and then east, and also east directly from Dallas
Representative Jeb Hansarling (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 64-33
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Notes on opponents neither raised much
Current opponents No Democrat
Demographics 34th most Republican
Assessment Free ride
District: TX-06
Location Shaped sort of like a boot, with an added doodad on top, the top of the boot is south and west of Dallas, it extends south about 100 miles and then east
Representative Joe Barton (R)
First elected 1984
2006 margin 60-37
2004 margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 66-34
Notes on opponents In 2004, Morris Meyer raised $100K to Barton’s $1.8 million. The 2006 opponent raised little
Current opponents Ludwig Otto
Demographics 42nd most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-07
Location Western outskirts of Houston
Representative John Culberson (R)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 64-33
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Henley raised $122K to Culberton’s $700K
Current opponents Michael Skelly has (this is interesting) raised $465K (almost all from individuals) to Culberson’s $322K (almost half from PACs). Even more interesting, Skelly has more COH: $400K to $82K
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $58K), 66th fewest veterans (9.9%), 33rd most Republican
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 75th most vulnerable Republican seat
District: TX-08
Location The southern part of eastern TX, bordering LA
Representative Kevin Brady (R)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 67-33
2004 margin 69-30
Bush margin 2004 72-28
Notes on opponents Jim Wright ran both times, and raised little
Current opponents Kent Hargett
Demographics 45th lowest income (median = $40K), 10th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-09
Location Part of Houston and southern suburbs
Representative Al Green (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 72-27
Bush margin 2004 30-70
Notes on opponents In 2004, Arlette Molina raised $133K to Green’s $838K
Current opponents No Republican
Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), 54th most Blacks (37%), 64th most Latinos (32.8%), 12th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly 11% Asians), 45th most Democratic
Assessment Free ride
District: TX-10
Location A long, narrow district running from Austin almost to Houston
Representative Michael McCaul (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 55-40 (most of rest to a Libertarian)
2004 margin 79-15-6 against minor parties
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Notes on opponents In 2006, Ted Ankrum raised only $64K
Current opponents Larry Joe Doherty has raised $447K, almost all from individuals. McCaul has raised about $500K, 40% of it from PACs. Each has about $100K COH
Demographics 77th highest income (median = $52K), 85th most Latinos (18.7%), 61st most Republican
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 62nd most vulnerable Republican seat; Doherty is a TV star, so has good name recog, and seems to be a good fundraiser
District: TX-11
Location Western TX, bordering (a little) on NM, including Odessa, Midland, and Brownwood
Representative Mike Conaway (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 77-22
Bush margin 2004 78-22
Notes on opponents no money
Current opponents No Democrat
Demographics 60th lowest income (median = $33K), 50th most Latinos (29.6%), 4th most Republican
Assessment Free ride
District: TX-12
Location Part of Ft. Worth, and western and northern suburbs
Representative Kay Granger (R)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 67-31
2004 margin 72-28
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Tracey Smith (no fundraising info). Granger has about $120K COH.
Demographics 63rd most Latinos (23.7%), 50th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-13
Location Northern panhandle, bordering OK and NM
Representative Mac Thornberry (R)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 74-23
2004 margin 92-8 against a Libertarian
Bush margin 2004 78-22
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Roger Waun , who lost in 2006, is running again
Demographics 72nd lowest income (median = $34K), 4th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-14
Location Most of the Gulf Coast of TX
Representative Ron Paul (R)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin Unopposed
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Notes on opponents In 2006, Shane Sklar raised $550K to Paul’s $1.5 million
Current opponents No Democrat
Demographics 60th most Latinos (24.9%), 50th most Republican
Assessment Free ride
District: TX-15
Location Southern TX, between the Gulf and Mexico, but bordering neither
Representative Ruben Hinojosa (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 62-24-15 (two Republicans)
2004 margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Eddie Zamora has $720 (no K) COH; Hinojosa has $300K
Demographics 6th lowest income (median = $27K), 59th fewest veterans (9.3%), 18th fewest Whites (19.7%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 2nd most Latinos (77.6%) (only TX-16 is higher), fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (1%)
Assessment Safe
District: TX-16
Location Westernmost TX, bordering NM and Mexico, including El Paso
Representative Silvestre Reyes (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 79-21 vs. a Libertarian
2004 margin 68-31
Bush margin 2004 44-56
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents No Republican
Demographics 43rd lowest income (median = $31K), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), most Latinos (77.7%)
Assessment Free ride
District: TX-17
Location Another TX district with twists, but it’s south of Dallas and centers on Waco
Representative Chet Edwards (D)
First elected 1990
2006 margin 58-40
2004 margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 70-30
Notes on opponents In 2004, Arlene Wohlgemuth and Edwards each had about $2.5 million; in 2006, Van Taylor raised $2.5 million to Edwards $3.1 million
Current opponents Rob Curnock (no funding info), Edwards has raised about $1.3 million and has about $1 million COH
Demographics 18th most Republican
Assessment Vulnerable. On the DCCC list . Superribbie ranks it the the 18th most vulnerable Democratic seat. It will be interesting to see Curnock’s fundraising report
District: TX-18
Location Shaped sort of like a Q, in Houston and suburbs
Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (D)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 77-19
2004 margin 89-6-5 vs. minor parties
Bush margin 2004 28-72
Notes on opponents no money
Current opponents John Faulk has only about $5K COH, Lee has over $200K
Demographics 40th lowest income (median = $31K), 41st fewest veterans (8.3%), 17th fewest Whites (19.7%), 32nd most Blacks (40.1%), 43rd most Latinos (35.6%), 37th most Democratic
Assessment safe
District: TX-19
Location Another weird shape…like a W with extra squiggles. Borders NM in the west, then jiggles around eventually almost reaching the OK border; includes Lubbock
Representative Randy Neugebauer(R)
First elected 2003
2006 margin 68-30
2004 margin 58-40
Bush margin 2004 77-23
Notes on opponents In 2004, Charlie Stenholm raised $2.5 million to Neugebauer’s 3.2 million. The 2006 opponent raised little
Current opponents Dwight Fullingim (no funding info), Neugebauer has $440K COH
Demographics 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 53rd most Latinos (29%), 4th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-20
Location San Antonio and a odd shaped area around it
Representative Charlie Gonzalez (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 87-13 against a Libertarian
2004 margin 65-32
Bush margin 2004 45-55
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Robert Litoff (no funding info), Gonzalez has about $175 K COH
Demographics 51st lowest income (median = $32K), 31st fewest Whites (23.4%), 9th most Latinos (67.1%)
Assessment Safe
District: TX-21
Location Mostly west of San Antonio, but also north and east of San Antonio, towards Austin
Representative Lamar Smith (R)
First elected 1986
2006 margin 60-25-9 (two Democrats)
2004 margin 61-30
Bush margin 2004 66-34
Notes on opponents In 2006, John Courage raised $350K to Smith’s $1.6 million
Current opponents No Democrat
Demographics 25th most veterans (16.8%), 71st most Latinos (21.3%), 33rd most Republican.
Assessment Free ride
District: TX-22
Location Oh, I dunno…. a bowtie with one strand loose? Mostly south of Houston
Representative Nick Lampson (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 52-42
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Notes on opponents In 2006, Sekula-Gibbs raised $900K to Lampson’s $3.6 million
Current opponents Pete Olson raised about $810K but has only $114K left, and $170K in debt. Lampson has about $740K COH
Demographics 48th highest income (median = $58K), 42nd most Republican
Assessment Vulnerable. On the DCCC list . Superribbie ranks it the the most vulnerable Democratic seat. This is Tom DeLay’s old seat. Lampson has a fundraising edge (as of mid-February) but now that the Republican primary is over, this will get hot
District: TX-23
Location Western TX, except for El Paso, borders Mexico and NM
Representative Ciro Rodriguez (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Notes on opponents In 2006, Rodriguez ousted Bonilla, although Bonilla had $3.8 million and Rodriguez less than $1 million. This district changed a lot in 2006 and before, and Rodriguez used to represent part of it
Current opponents Lyle T. Larson has $124K COH. Rodriguez has about $660K.
Demographics 74th lowest income (median = $34K), 47th fewest Whites (30%), 13th most Latinos (65.1%).
Assessment Vulnerable. On the DCCC list
District: TX-24
Location Shaped like a T between Dallas and Ft. Worth
Representative Kenny Marchant (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 60-37
2004 margin 64-34
Bush margin 2004 65-35
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Tom Love has almost no COH; Marchant has $400K COH and $125K in debt
Demographics 47th highest income (median = $56K), 42nd most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-25
Location Austin and southern and eastern suburbs
Representative Lloyd Doggett (D)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 67-26
2004 margin 68-31
Bush margin 2004 46-54
Notes on opponents In 2004 Rebecca Armendariz Klein raised $800K to Doggett’s $2 million. The 2006 opponent raised little
Current opponents George Morovich (no funding info); Doggett has $2.5 million COH
Demographics 94th fewest veterans (10.8%), 98th fewest Whites (52.9%), 45th most Latinos (33.9%)
Assessment Pretty safe
District: TX-26
Location A square with two sticks, running north from Ft. Worth to the OK border
Representative Michael Burgess (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 60-37
2004 margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 65-35
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Ken Leach , no funding info. Burgess has only $39K COH.
Demographics 74th most Republican
Assessment Well, we’re not favored….but… Burgess got 75% in 2002, 66% in 2004, 60% in 2006…who knows?
District: TX-27
Location The southern Gulf coast
Representative Solomon Ortiz (D)
First elected 1982
2006 margin 57-39
2004 margin 63-35
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Notes on opponents Willie Vaden ran both times, raising about $50K in 2004 and $100K in 2006. Ortiz got around $700K each time
Current opponents Willie Vaden again (no funding info). Ortiz has about $250K COH
Demographics 41st lowest income (median = $31K), 34th fewest Whites (27.6%), 8th most Latinos (68.1%)
Assessment Safe
District: TX-28
Location Southern TX along the Mexican border
Representative Henry Cuellar (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Jim Fish ($150 COH), Cuellar has about $42K COH, but $100K in debt
Demographics 17th lowest income (median = $29K), 49th fewest veterans (8.7%), 20th fewest Whites (20.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 3rd most Latinos (77.5%)
Assessment probably safe
District: TX-29
Location If you can describe this shape, you’re good! East of Houston
Representative Gene Green (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 74-24
2004 margin 94-6 against a Libertarian
Bush margin 2004 44-56
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Eric Story, who lost in 2006, has $833 COH; Green has $554K
Demographics 48th lowest income (median = $32K), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 10th most Latinos (66.1%)
Assessment Safe
District: TX-30
Location Dallas and southern suburbs
Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 80-18
2004 margin 93-7 against a Libertarian
Bush margin 2004 25-75
Notes on opponents Little money
Current opponents Fred Wood (no funding info) Johnson has about $150K COH
Demographics 72nd lowest income ($34K), 45th fewest veterans (8.4%), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 30th most Blacks (41.4%), 43rd most Latinos (34.2%), 31st most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: TX-31
Location North and west of Austin
Representative John Carter (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 58-39
2004 margin 65-32
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Notes on opponents In 2004, Jon Porter raised little. In 2006 Mary Beth Harrell raised $207K to Carter’s $900K
Current opponents Brian Ruiz , no funding info. Carter has about $130 COH
Demographics 29th most veterans (16.4%), 33rd most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-32
Location Shaped like most of a circle, near Dallas
Representative Pete Sessions (R)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 56-41
2004 margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Notes on opponents In 2004, Martin Frost raised $4.8 million to Sessions’ $4.5 million. In 2006, Will Pryor raised $500K to Sessions’ $1.8 million
Current opponents Eric Roberson has about $3K COH, Sessions has about $860K COH
Demographics 53rd fewest veterans (8.9%), 90th fewest Whites (50.1%), 40th most Latinos (36.2%), 86th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
Lake Research for Gerry Connolly (likely voters, 3/24-27, 1/7-10 in parens):
Gerry Connolly (D): 45% (45%)
Leslie Byrne (D): 25% (22%)
Doug Denneny (D): 1% (1%)
Lori Alexander (D): 1% (n/a)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
With high name recognition and a job performance approval of 61% as Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, Connolly is in a strong position to win VA-11’s June 11th primary.