My Congressional rep just spent a day in Iraq

Cross posted from West Virginia Blue

Pro-Iraq war Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito spent a day in Iraq and now she’s an expert.

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito has just returned from an unpublicized trip to Iraq and Kuwait.

Though Capito, R-W.Va., had to tread around mostly in full military armor in 116-degree heat, she said the visit helped reinforce her confidence in U.S. efforts there.

She flew into Baghdad earlier this week accompanied by a Republican delegation of Reps. John McHugh, N.Y.; Frank LoBiondo, N.J.; Douglas Lamborn, Colo.; and Gus Bilirakis, Fla.

After arriving in Baghdad, she then went to Fallujah and back to Baghdad.

“We wanted to get a firsthand sense of how things are going,” said Capito in a telephone interview just hours after her return to the U.S. on Thursday. “We talked with leadership and the troops on the ground. My overwhelming impression initially was how proud I am of the men and women in uniform.”

snip

She was mostly impressed with the turnaround of Fallujah, a city 43 miles west of Baghdad and notorious for a 2004 attack on four American contractors who were dragged from their cars, beaten, set on fire, pulled along the streets and hung from a bridge.

“Seven or eight months ago, we wouldn’t have been able to come here,” Capito said. “The level of violence has decreased dramatically. It’s very encouraging, but I still realize it’s a very dangerous situation.”

The U.S. delegation met with Fallujah city government officials. They acknowledged that while the violent atmosphere has lessened, progress remains needed for the political system.

Author, Daily Kossack and Iraq war veteran The Angry Rakkasan wrote a diary about Congressional delegations going to Iraq for the “fact finding” tour:

This is how it happens: A desperate Republican goes to Iraq looking for something-anything-to justify the continuing presence of American troops there.  The Republican stays for a week (give or take), and then returns home as if he or she were Moses coming back from Mount Sinai, carrying to the American people stone tablets engraved with The Ultimate Truth About Iraq.

And of course, this Ultimate Truth About Iraq is learned by the Republican in the chow hall, on the secure base, with the hand-picked soldiers sitting at the table.

This is what Senator Jim Webb rightly  called the “dog and pony show.”  For those who don’t know, that’s an old military expression used to describe how troops are often forced to put on a “show” for visiting politicians or VIPs to convey just how swell everything is going on the front lines.

Politicians or VIPs who’ve served in a combat zone know this.  Sadly, the rest visit the troops in a state of blissful ignorance.

The story does not say what day she was in Iraq, just that it was earlier this week. Somehow in reporting she saw “progress,” Capito and the Daily Mail reporter Jake Stump forgot to mention this happened also this week perhaps on the day she was there:

Hospital officials in northwestern Iraq have told TIME that the death toll from Tuesday’s blasts in Qahataniya may exceed 300, making the multiple suicide bombings the deadliest terrorist operation in the country since the fall of Saddam Hussein. One hospital is saying that there are at least 500 bodies and that 375 people are injured. That report, however, cannot yet be verified.

snip

Since then, the massive “surge” of U.S. and Iraqi troops in and around Baghdad has made the Iraqi capital safer than before from such bombings – but terrorist groups have stepped up attacks elsewhere. There have been a number of attacks in northern Iraq, which had enjoyed a long spell of peace before the start of the “surge.”

Tuesday’s bombings were also a reminder that even successful U.S. military operations can have a short shelf life – a sobering thought for Bush Administration officials and independent analysts who have recently been talking up the successes of the “surge.” After all, the area around Qahataniya was the scene of a major anti-insurgent operation barely two years ago. In the fall of 2005, some 8,000 American and Iraqi troops flushed a terrorist group out of the nearby town of Tal Afar in an operation that was a precursor to the “clear, hold and build” strategy that underpins the current “surge.” A few months later, President Bush cited Tal Afar as a success story for the U.S. enterprise in Iraq.

There have been several attacks in and around Tal Afar since then; last March, two truck bombs killed more than 100 people in a Shi’ite neighborhood in the town. The bombings in Qahataniya were a deadly reminder that the terrorists have not gone very far away. 

And she failed to mention this:

BAGHDAD, Iraq — Despite U.S. claims that violence is down in the Iraqi capital, U.S. military officers offer a bleak picture of Iraq’s future, saying they’ve yet to see any signs of reconciliation between Sunni and Shi’ite Muslims.

Without reconciliation, the military officers say, any decline in violence would be temporary, and bloodshed could return to previous levels when the U.S. military cuts back its campaign against insurgents.

The downbeat assessment comes despite a buildup of U.S. troops that began five months ago and has seen U.S. casualties reach the highest sustained levels since the United States invaded Iraq nearly 4 1/2 years ago.

U.S. officials say civilian casualties in Baghdad are down by half. But they wouldn’t provide specific numbers, and statistics gathered by McClatchy Newspapers don’t support the claim.

The number of car bombings in July actually was 5% higher than the number recorded last December, the statistics show, and the number of civilians killed in explosions is about the same.

Daily Mail reporter Jake Stump. He’s still under the illusion that Gen. David Patraeus is going to write the report.

Army Gen. David Petraeus, top commander in Iraq, informed Capito that areas of the country have undergone vast improvements. Petraeus is slated to give Congress a report next month that addresses whether the troop surge strategy is working. The general has stated that it could take until the summer of 2009 to attain security in Iraq.

The report is really going to be written by the White House. Dan Froomkin of the White House Watch at WashingtonPost.com:

The “Petraeus Report” — the supposedly trustworthy mid-September reckoning of military and political progress in Iraq by Army Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker — is instead looking more like a White House con job in the making.

The Bush administration has been trying for months to restore its credibility on Iraq (as well as stall for time) by focusing on Petraeus — President Bush’s “main man” in Iraq — and his report to Congress. But now it turns out it that White House aides will actually write the “Petraeus Report,” not the general himself.

But it does appear as if Capito now knows what it is like to suffer. She had to wear a helmet and body armor in the 116 degree heat for a little while and “endured” a 14-hour flight from Kuwait back home.

But maybe her suffering was much worse:

Capito said she gave soldiers opportunities to spill their concerns or frustrations over the war, but none complained.

Or maybe they know that Capito doesn’t listen. Maybe they know that whatever the reality is in Iraq, she’s going to say she has “concerns” and then keep voting to keep them occupying Iraq in the middle of a civil war forever.

We need a Congressional representative who is smart enough not to fall for the “dog and pony shows.” We need a Congressional representative who listens.

SUSA: Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) approval hits 40% for first time in over two years

[Crossposted @ DitchMitchKY.com]

The sparkling wine bottles will be popping at Fletcher/Rudolph 2007 HQ today! 

The August Survey USA approval/disapproval tracking numbers are out for Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher (R), and they show that the scandal-plagued Republican’s approval has topped 40 percent for the first time in over two years (the tracking graph only records back to May 2005).

Why are approval numbers that would scream nothing but political doom anywhere else in the nation sweet music to the politically tone-deaf ears of Ernie Fletcher?  Well, after all, it was only a year ago this month that Fletcher’s approval bottomed out at 24 percent.  [Keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side!  Anybody got a broom for pedagogically challenged running mate Robbie Rudolph to use as a prop?]

Of course, this month’s upward movement was a statistically insignificant one point (Aug:40/57; Jul:39/57), but all statistics are insignificant to the Fletcher camp, whether they’re the ones showing Kentucky’s sorry state of health, education, or business climate.  [Keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side!]

Where’s Fletcher’s big gain coming from?  Among Republicans and conservatives.

In the last month, Fletcher’s approval/disapproval went from 58/39 among Republicans to 62/35.  In March of this year, Fletcher was at 46/50 with that group.  So, he’s consolidating his party base, but he’ll need significantly more than 70 percent support from Republicans at the ballot box, especially considering that Republican turnout is likely to be somewhat suppressed, to pull off a November win.  Republicans accounted for 34 percent of the latest survey.

Fletcher’s popularity this month among conservatives rebounded to 57/39 from 52/46 after plummeting between June and July.  Conservatives were 33 percent of this survey.

There was no significant movement among males, females, Democrats, independents, moderates, or liberals.

By region, there was no significant change in western Kentucky, Louisville, or eastern Kentucky. 

There was, however, a statistically significant jump in Fletcher’s approval in northern Kentucky, where the governor went from 37/57 to 45/53.

House Retirement Watch: Back to the Future

With retirement fever becoming an epidemic on Capitol Hill this week, I thought it would be useful  to take a look back at how the open seat picture unfolded in the 2006 election cycle and compare it to where we stand today.

At this point in 2005, Republicans were dealing with nine open seats of an eventual total of twenty.  Interestingly, only two of these nine were straight-up retirements, whereas the bulk of these early announcements were made by House members seeking a promotion to a statewide office.  While the rumors and speculation are rampant, only five Republicans have announced retirements this year:

However, of these five, four are “straight-up” retirements, while the fifth (Duncan Hunter) may as well be, too.  Additionally, retirements by Rick Renzi (AZ-01) and Ralph Regula (OH-16) seem all but official, and many are convinced that Dave Hobson (OH-07) will throw in the towel, as well.  I don’t expect that we’ll see too many Republican House members (if any) bothering to try their hand at statewide races next year, but I do expect, with the shocking retirement announcements of Pryce and Pickering, that many more Republican members will test the winds during the August recess and make similar decisions (if not announcements) around Labor Day.  I believe that this rings especially true when one considers that most the “true” retirements of 2006 (i.e. the desire to end one’s political career) came in the fall/winter of ’05 and ’06.  And in a Presidential cycle, perhaps many potential retirees will feel obligated to give their would-be successors more of an opportunity to build their campaigns before the media cycle is utterly dominated by the top of the ticket.

So who’s next to grab a life preserver and bail?

IL-4, Well, that didn’t last long . . .

U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) had announced long ago that he would not seek re-election. Well, it is amazing what life in the majority does to you. Rep. Gutierrez has reversed directions and is now a candidate for re-election. This was never a competitive district, so this is not shutting out the republicans from being able to pick up a seat.

The only, thus far, open democratic seats that remain are those of Rep. Mark Udall (CO-2) and Rep. Tom Allen (ME-1) who are both seeking challenges to move up into the senate.

If anyone from Chicago is reading this, I would like to know how this afects the ground game for any democrats who were trying to move up to the house.

The original CQ article is posted below the flip.

http://www.cqpolitic… 

With Democrats now running the House, Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez, D-Ill., said Thursday that he will seek re-election in his Chicago-area 4th District, reversing an earlier decision to retire from Congress at the end of 2008.

Gutierrez made his announcement in Chicago, where he was attending the Illinois Hispanic Chamber of Commerce's Business Expo.

“In terms of effectiveness, I believe that my position in Congress is where I can be the strongest, most effective advocate for the people of Chicago and for our nation's immigrant communities,” Gutierrez, a leading advocate of overhauling immigration laws, said in a statement.

Gutierrez originally said in December 2005 that he would seek an eighth and final term in November 2006 and explore a run for Chicago mayor in February 2007. He won re-election with 86 percent of the vote last November, then decided against challenging longtime Democratic Mayor Richard M. Daley in a primary.

Even though he had disclosed his retirement plans nearly a year before the 2006 elections, well before it was clear that Democrats would win a majority of House seats, he had confirmed his retirement plans to a Congressional Quarterly reporter in March 2007.

Gutierrez said that his decision to run again was influenced by his wife's recovery from thyroid cancer and the possibility that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a fellow Chicagoan, will be elected president in 2008. Many Chicago-area officials were encouraging him to run again.

[…]

Most, if not all, of the four Democrats currently seeking Gutierrez's seat are expected to defer to the congressman and not challenge him in the Feb. 5 primary election. The would-be successors are Cook County commissioner Roberto Maldonado and Chicago Aldermen George Cardenas, Manny Flores and Ricardo Munoz. The top candidate in this quartet appears to be Flores, who reported raising nearly $500,000 through the end of June. […]

KY-Sen: Mitch McConnell reads my blog (he’s not a fan)

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots and DitchMitchKY)

Well, it looks like we’ve really gotten under someone’s skin.

We’ve been hounding Mitch McConnell every day at Ditch Mitch, as his approval rating plummets, his base abandons him, and protesters trap him inside his apartment (he’s too scared to face them).

Mitch McConnell is sending out fundraising letters to supporters in which he whines about the “liberals, radicals, far-left, unions, Hillary, Schumer, etc…” who are hounding him about his pathetic record and his obedience to corporate contributers and George W. Bush rather than his constituents in Kentucky.

In fact, we are “the 60’s anti-war movement on steroids!”. That’s probably the greatest unintentional complement I’ve ever received. I think I’ll have that put on my gravestone/obituary: “one of the leaders of the 60’s anti-war movement on steroids”.

Anyway, Mitchy even gives a big shout out to the good folks at Ditch Mitch!

Liberals on the internet have already created a website called “Ditch Mitch,” and 6,000 radicals from across the nation have already signed up.”

Hey, Mitchy, glad to see you’re reading the site! We feel humbled by your presence.

And as far as being a “radical”, I wish. I don’t think you can have an 8-5 Mon-Fri non-political office job and be defined as “radical”. But I aspire to prove you right someday, Mitchy. And we’re FAR more than 6,000, I can guarantee you that.

On second thought, maybe I’ll have “the leader of 6,000 liberal radicals” on my gravestone/obituary, that’s even better. (Though that honor technically should go to Matt Gunterman or Aniello, amongst a few others.)

And look what we have here. Why it’s Mitchy’s full fundraising letter, in all of its paranoid glory. It’s funny, you can almost smell the desperation in here. For Christ’s sake, have a little more dignity Mitchy.

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Free Image Hosting at allyoucanupload.com

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots and DitchMitchKY)

Site Bugs

In the past few days, numerous users have informed us that they’ve been having serious issues posting comments here on SSP.  Namely, with the new AJAX system in place, particularly long comments were somehow being lost as people hit the “preview” button.  I’m very sorry for the inconvenience–there’s nothing more frustrating than spending a lot of time writing a post and then losing it.

So, for the time being, I’m disabling Soapblox’s new AJAX comments feature until all the bugs can be worked out with tech support.  I’d definitely like to bring it back as soon as possible, though.

MS-03: With Floodgates Open, Pickering Retires (Updated)

According to Roll Call, Republican Rep. Chip Pickering, long considered a potential successor for either Senator Thad Cochran or Trent Lott, has decided to call it quits:

Rep. Chip Pickering (R-Miss.) has decided not to run for re-election in 2008, a knowledgeable source confirmed Thursday afternoon.

Pickering’s office did not return requests for comment Thursday. But a second source said Thursday afternoon that Pickering was scheduled to meet with his staff in his Pearl, Miss., district office at 4 p.m. Central time, apparently to discuss his political future.

[…]

Several viable candidates are expected to seek the GOP nomination to replace Pickering, including termed-out Mississippi Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck, a former Democrat who is scheduled to leave office at the end of this year.

Pickering, only 44 years old, could easily wait another four or six years for a Lott or Cochran retirement.  But perhaps he’s grown tired of waiting after being teased by potential Senate retirements for two cycles in a row.  Or maybe he’s just tired of not raking in the big bucks.  In 2003, Pickering openly mused about leaving Congress in order to take a massive annual paycheck as a telecommunications lobbyist.  It’s possible that Pickering feels, with life in an enduring House minority and no Senate promotion in immediate sight, that now is the time to cash in.

While Democrats held this district for over 100 years before Pickering claimed this open seat in 1996, it has a solid Republican advantage with a PVI of R+14.  Bush twice dominated this district by 64%-35% and 65%-34% margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.  If there is a glimmer of hope for Democrats, it is that Rep. Gene Taylor, a conservative Democrat, holds a district even redder (R+16, with a 37-point margin of victory for Bush in 2004).  However, it would be a tall order for Democrats to be able to recruit someone with Taylor’s political skills to contest this seat.

To sum it up, we’ve seen three Republican retirements in a week: Hastert, Pryce, and now Pickering.  (Plus the raging rumors surrounding Dave Hobson.)  I wonder how many more surprises are in store for us.

UPDATE: The Clarion-Ledger confirms.  Pickering is outta here!

UPDATE 2: Will it be a retirement or a resignation?  First Read is “getting conflicting signals”, but suggests that “with Pickering heading to work on K Street, he might want to leave Congress before the lobbying/ethics reform legislation is signed into law”.

Why Do We Expect Change When We Keep Electing The Same People

I've been puzzled lately as I watch netroots activists support old school, DLC type Democrats. 

 

I thought the point of the netroots movement was to elect progressives.  To “crash the gate” with new candidates.  To bring fresh ideas into the Democratic Party.   

I can't count the races I've seen already where there is some state senator or state rep who is now going to run for Congress with the urging and blessing of the DCCC and DNC and state Party's.  And it seems our netroots activists are flocking to them.  Even though these candidates are much closer to DLC Dems than they are to being Progressive Dems. 

Look how disappointed we have all been over FISA, Iraq, etc.  We want to know why the Dems never stand up.  Well it is because we keep putting the same people — or people just like them — back into office. 

 

I'm not advocating we start a bunch of challenges against Dem incumbents ala Lamont/Lieberman. 

But in those seats where there are incumbent Republicans, why aren't there more netroots, grassroots, progressive candidates?  Why aren't we out recruiting them?  Supporting them?

And when there are those candidates, why are netroots, progressive activists supporting the old school Democrats?

If we really want change, then we have to change who is in office.  

I liked the votevet initiative last time.  Those guys weren't old school Democrats who had worked their way up the party structure and were just running for Congress because it is the next step on their resume.

It was an effective initiative.  It matched candidates with their districts.  

The electorate is ready for change. If we keep running the same old school Democrats who sound exactly like Republicans (except for maybe stem cells and abortion) then what is the point? 

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Senate 08 – Fill in the Blanks

There are still many Senate races that are up in the air, without a Democratic challenger, or without the preferred Democratic challenger.  I thought it would be interesting to get a pulse on what the SSP community has in mind, as far as predictions on how these races will develop in the coming months.

 

As I see it, there are currently four races where the Democratic candidates are, for all intents and purposes, agreed upon:

Colorado – Mark Udall
Maine – Tom Allen
Idaho – Larry La Rocco
Oklahoma – Andrew Rice

I believe there are also currently three races where the primary is already set and will look exactly like it does now on primary day:

Texas – Noriega v. Watts
Minnesota – Franken v. Ciresi
Oregon – Merkley v. Novick

The “Unknowns” are:

New Hampshire – Does Shaheen jump in?  If so, do the other three all jump out?

Virginia – Sure Warner is retiring, but is it a certainty that our Warner decides to run?

Nebraska – What the hell?  If Hagel retires, does Kerrey get in or does Fahey?  Is it possible that both would decline on a Hagel-less race and pass the torch to Kleeb already?

Corruption:

Alaska – The possibility that Stevens will face an aggressive primary challenge is looming large.  Will Begich decide to go for it?  Will Stevens just decide to call it quits?

New Mexico – Is Don Wiviott really who Democrats are going to rally behind?  Is the possibility of Madrid getting in the race almost gone?  Is a Chavez/Denish gubernatorial primary already set, or will one get in this one?

Southern seats:

Kentucky – Stumbo seems to be itching for a fight and give Mitch some hell.  Will KY Dems let him have at it, or will Charlie Owen and Andrew Horne get in the mix too?

North Carolina – Easley, Cooper and Miller are all no-go’s, earlier talk seemed to surround Grier Martin or Kay Hagan making the challenge – what happened there?  Is an announcement coming from either, or will NC Dems have to find another prospect to challenge Liddy?

Mississippi – Does everyone agree that Cochran is staying put? Damn.

Competitive, or not?
Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Kansas, Wyoming 1 and 2:  Do any of these get top Democrats to compete, or are these the sacrificial lamb races?  Will Sparks rethink his earlier statements regarding the race?  Do Dems decide to let their progress in Kansas stall and not put up an aggressive challenger to Roberts?

I’m really just curious what everyone thinks these 22 races will look like on, let’s say, New Year’s.  Who gets in, who gets out, and which Repubs will ultimately get a pass.  Also, which Dems have the edge in their respective primary races.

Thanks and I look forward to the responses!

LA-Gov: Is “Bobby” Jindal Beatable?

(First off, I'd like to thank DavidNYC for asking me to join the Swing State Project team. While the South and its unique brand of politics is my area of greatest familiarity, I'll try not to focus too much on races from below the Mason-Dixon. In any case, I'm looking forward to writing here at SSP and contributing to the electoral analysis and discussion that the site's known for.)

Over the past few months, conventional wisdom has been that Republican “Bobby” Jindal is an inevitability in his campaign for governor of Louisiana. While that opinion's been reinforced by a few polls, there's also plenty of evidence and polling with which to argue the contrary. 

Being the front-runner certainly carries its benefits for Jindal, but it also means that he'll be the guy with a big bullseye on his back throughout the campaign. Over the next two months, Jindal's opponents will unload their campaign warchests in a concentrated effort to dampen his support and lower his numbers.

Independently wealthy Democratic State Senator Walter Boasso has been airing ads for over a month with some success. In his ads, Boasso slams Jindal's paper-thin record and highlights Jindal's close ties with the Bush administration. But Jindal is also facing trouble from his right, as wealthy GOP businessman John Georges has $7 million COH with which he plans to argue he is the “true conservative” in the race.  In addition, Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell has over $1 million in his account. To top it all off, the Louisiana Democratic Party has commenced a major ad buy tarring Jindal.

And of course, the scandal involving Sen. David Vitter's patronage of prostitutes has tarnished the image of the state GOP. To make matters worse for Jindal, he's taking flak from both sides on this issue. Many are upset with Jindal for not calling for Vitter's resignation, while conservatives like Georges are accusing Jindal of “abandoning” Vitter.

Considering that this race is just now heating up although Jindal's been considered an heir-apparent by the media for months, Democrats should take heart from a recent poll commissioned by Georges. In the poll conducted in late July, only 38% of Louisianans said they're planning to vote for Jindal. And the way I see it, he's got nowhere to go but down from there.

This race is far from over. For local updates, keep an eye on the Daily Kingfish.