Month: April 2009

The Hill released an article today in which all 41 Senate Republicans were asked to evaluate the most bipartisan Democrats.

Here is the link: http://thehill.com/leading-the…

It was a really nice article and it showed that despite the big battles, most people are trying to reach out to the other side somehow, even in some small way.

Every Republican, even the most conservative ones, gave kind, thoughtful answers… except for one: Jim Bunning.

His answer was simply this:

No.

So I ask you all this question: Does Jim Bunning even care anymore about trying to get reelected?  

Siena College (PDF) (4/13-15, registered voters, March 2009 in parens):

David Paterson (D-inc): 11 (17)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 64 (67)

Tom Suozzi (D): 8

Undecided: 17 (17)

(MoE: ±5.5%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 29 (33)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 56 (56)

Undecided: 15 (11)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (51)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 39 (41)

Undecided: 8 (9)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

After Siena’s last poll, you might have thought David Paterson had hit rock bottom. Not so. With numbers like these, it would almost be political malpractice if Andrew Cuomo didn’t get into the race – he’ll never have a better shot. It would also be mostly suicidal for Paterson to stay in, but he hasn’t given any indication that he plans to bail – indeed, he even hired campaign staff.

And one of those hires, pollster Stan Greenberg, probably already told Paterson something which Siena now tells us: Gay marriage is popular in New York State. In fact, it’s supported by a 53-39 margin (and 59-35 among Dems). Those numbers likely explain why Paterson has been pushing this issue hard of late, even though same-sex marriage legislation has little chance of passing the state Senate. It also helps to change the conversation away from the economy and, well, everything else.

(From the Anecdotal Evidence from Queens Dept., I was lucky enough to attend the Mets’ home opener at their new stadium a week ago. A few “distinguished” guests were introduced over the PA. I had never heard boos as loud as those I heard for Paterson – except until they announced Shelly Silver, who even I booed. Mayor Mike, incidentally, was half booed, half cheered.)

Oddly enough, despite the strong pro-gay marriage numbers, Rudy Giuliani (who I still don’t think will run) has decided to aim his first shot across the bow… against gay marriage:

“This will create a grass-roots movement. This is the kind of issue that, in many ways, is somewhat beyond politics,” said Giuliani, a two-term mayor who unsuccessfully sought the GOP presidential nomination last year.

“I think gay marriage will obviously be an issue for any Republican next year because Republicans are either in favor of the position I’m in favor of, civil unions, or in many cases Republicans don’t even favor civil unions,” he continued.

Who even knows who Giuliani is listening to these days. His strategy during the GOP presidential primary was so insane and non-viable that I’m not surprised to see him spouting nonsense. I almost hope he does run, in fact. I’d love to see him get his ass whooped.

(Hat-tip: Political Wire)

This could wind up being huge news:

This past week a few people have told me that Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien is gearing up for a primary challenge to Kanjo in 2010 for the 10th CD seat. In fact I have found out that Jimmy Siegel, a big Democratic media gun, has been contacted by O’Brien. I’m not still convinced that O’Brien will make the race. I sent an email to him asking for comment. If he answers I will let you know.

Update: Corey got back to me. He neither confirmed or denied my report. We will get together later this week. I asked him if he was running for Congress and he said “I am seriously considering it.”

Everyone here is familiar with Paul Kanjorski, the past-his-prime northeastern PA rep who just barely surived his re-election campaign last year, and only after a barrage of Democratic support. I don’t know a whole lot about Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien, meanwhile, but as an up-and-coming 35-year-old elected official, right off the bat he’s a lot of things Kanjorski isn’t. I do know that he had the courage to come out for Obama last year in an area where Clinton was wildly popular (she took over 70% of the vote in Lackawanna) – and he took his lumps for it. If O’Brien can stand up to the establishment like that, then maybe he really is capable of taking on Kanjorski (or perhaps pushing him into retirement).

In any event, I look forward to learning more about O’Brien’s politics, and getting confirmation of his intentions.

• DNC/RNC: The RNC seems to win the fundraising month for March, in a bit of a split decision. The DNC reported $7.57 million in contributions last month, while the RNC pulled in $6.7 million. However, $2 million of those Democratic dollars were transferred from the Obama campaign. More ominously, the RNC is sitting on $23.9 million cash on hand and no debt, while the DNC has $9.7 million cash on hand and $6.9 million in debt.

• IL-Sen: Hot on the heels of his $845 fundraising quarter, the new Rasmussen poll shows Roland Burris might want to make some post-2010 plans. 4% of respondents say they will “definitely” vote for him and 54% will vote against, with 39% saying it depends on who’s running. 62% think he should resign, with 24% believing he should remain in the Senate. (The poll doesn’t test Burris in any head-to-heads.) The poll also finds Jesse Jackson Jr. looking badly tarnished in the wake of the Blagojevich implosion: his favorables are now 32-63. One other tidbit that makes Lisa Madigan’s job harder if she runs for IL-Gov: Pat Quinn’s job approval is a surprisingly high 61-37.

• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln has drawn at least one legitimate challenger for 2010: state senate minority leader Kim Hendren has announced his candidacy. Hendren has self-funding abilities and a strong base in northwest Arkansas (the traditionally Republican part of the state), which at least gives him a leg up in the primary. Hendren, however, is old (71)… old enough that one claim to fame is that he lost a race to Bill Clinton (the 1982 gubernatorial primary, when Hendren was still a Democrat)… and promising to serve only one term. Lincoln defeated state senators in both her 1998 and 2004 bids.

• NV-Sen, NV-02: GOP Rep. Dean Heller says that “his plan today” is to run for re-election, but he’s also refusing to rule out a run against Handsome Harry Reid. (J)

• IL-14: After getting their pants kicked in by Democrat Bill Foster in two consecutive elections, the Illinois GOP may turn to the Name You Know in 2010 — Dennis Hastert’s son, Ethan. 31 year-old Ethan Hastert, a Chicagoland attorney, says that he’s “exploring” a run for his dad’s old seat, and is already polling his name against Foster in a trial poll. Ethan’s previous claim to fame: serving as assistant to Lewis “Scooter” Libby. (J)

• FL-05: Jim Piccillo will be challenging Ginny Brown-Waite in this light-red district. Piccillo has an interesting backstory: no previous political experience, and was a Republican until last year when he was driven away by the tenor of the campaign, but the recipient of a lot of media exposure after being profiled by the NYT in a feature on Florida Republicans abandoning the party. At least he sounds better than this guy.

• DE-AL, FL-10: Our top-shelf Democratic recruits have launched new websites: John Carney and Charlie Justice. (D)

• Polltopia: Our friends at Public Policy Polling are once again letting readers decide which Senate race they’ll poll next. The choices: Georgia, Illinois, and Oklahoma. Get busy voting and then tell us which race you picked in the comments. (J)

CQ breaks a mindblowing story:

Rep. Jane Harman, the California Democrat with a longtime involvement in intelligence issues, was overheard on an NSA wiretap telling a suspected Israeli agent that she would lobby the Justice Department to reduce espionage-related charges against two officials of the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee, the most powerful pro-Israel organization in Washington.

Harman was recorded saying she would “waddle into” the AIPAC case “if you think it’ll make a difference,” according to two former senior national security officials familiar with the NSA transcript.

In exchange for Harman’s help, the sources said, the suspected Israeli agent pledged to help lobby Nancy Pelosi , D-Calif., then-House minority leader, to appoint Harman chair of the Intelligence Committee after the 2006 elections, which the Democrats were heavily favored to win.

Seemingly wary of what she had just agreed to, according to an official who read the NSA transcript, Harman hung up after saying, “This conversation doesn’t exist.”

Believe it or not, it actually gets worse – much worse. Harman was actually investigated for this previously, but new revelations indicate she got off the hook for the most odious of reasons:

[C]ontrary to reports that the Harman investigation was dropped for “lack of evidence,” it was Alberto R. Gonzales, President Bush’s top counsel and then attorney general, who intervened to stop the Harman probe.

Why? Because, according to three top former national security officials, Gonzales wanted Harman to be able to help defend the administration’s warrantless wiretapping program, which was about break in The New York Times and engulf the White House.

And that’s exactly what she did:

Harman, [Gonazles] told [CIA Director Porter Goss], had helped persuade the newspaper to hold the wiretap story before, on the eve of the 2004 elections. And although it was too late to stop the Times from publishing now, she could be counted on again to help defend the program

[Gonzales] was right.

On Dec. 21, 2005, in the midst of a firestorm of criticism about the wiretaps, Harman issued a statement defending the operation and slamming the Times, saying, “I believe it essential to U.S. national security, and that its disclosure has damaged critical intelligence capabilities.”

So, to recap: Harman, a member of the Blue Dogs, offered to help get espionage charges reduced against two AIPAC members, in exchange for an unnamed “Israeli agent” (the person on the other end of the call) lobbying Nancy Pelosi to appoint Harman chair of the Intelligence Committee. (Thankfully, Pelosi did not.)

Then, to make things far more ugly, Alberto Gonzales offered to drop the investigation of Harman’s Israeli quid pro quo so that she would help defend the Cheney Administration’s outrageous warantless wiretapping program, which she had done before and did again with gusto. Hell, you might even call this blackmail. I can’t think of much worse than this.

Well it looks like we have got ourselves a candidate for the 5th district in western/northwestern Florida.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

This is probably the area of Florida I know the least. All I know is that the 5th was represented by a Democrat until 2002 and then Republicans changed the district to get rid of her and McCain received 56 percent of the vote here so it will be a tough race. The guy running has an interesting story to say the least (he introduced Joe Biden as John McCain at a rally??)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

After reading the “cattle call,” which is sort of interminable and starts to make my eyes glaze over, I thought, why not have a poll that would aggregate our guesses together and determine which races we (collectively) think are most likely to flip?

Here is such a poll:

http://www.cs.cornell.edu/w8/~…

Go vote if you’re interested!  I’ll leave it open for a couple of weeks.

If this gets popular, then maybe some of the organizers of this site should look into doing it as a regular thing.

FYI for voting rule nerds: this poll uses Condorcet rules, which tend to be good for rank-orderings like this.  In effect, the poll asks whether more people rate X more highly than Y, or Y more highly than X.  It’s slightly more complicated than that, but not much.

If you ever want to use this service to create polls like this, here’s the URL:

http://www.cs.cornell.edu/andr…

It’s pretty quick & easy.  And the results are far more detailed & useful than the kind of simple add-up-the-numbers-and-who-wins type of polling tools that you usually see (one of which I think is built in on this site…)

UPDATE: Hey, I see a few people have already taken the poll.  Thanks!  This should be interesting…

http://equalitync.org/news1/20…

The one tidbit I was able to find in this regard, for readers’ information, was listed on Equality NC’s rundown of 2004 achievements (emphasis added by me):

“Fulfilling a campaign promise to Equality NC PAC, Attorney General Roy Cooper issued a non-discrimination policy for the Department of Justice that includes sexual orientation. He is the first statewide elected official to adopt such a policy in North Carolina.”

I hope he runs and beats Burr.

We haven’t done one of these so far for the 2010 cycle, so now is as good a time as any to start. You know the task ahead of you: Rank the senate races up for grabs in 2010 (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.

Have at it!

{Originally posted at my blog Senate Guru.}

Republican sore loser Norm Coleman’s endless and pointless appeals will not accomplish a victory for Coleman.  But ol’ Normie can be proud that he has accomplished one thing: his name has become synonymous with “sore loser” to the point that “pulling a Norm Coleman” has entered the lexicon meaning “acting like a sore loser.”  To wit:

Larry King: ‘I’m not a sore loser. I’m not gonna pull a Norm Coleman’

Here’s evidence that Minnesota’s post-election battle for U.S. Senate has permeated pop culture. Al Franken and Norm Coleman were cited this week by contestants in another competition that attracted millions of partisans: the race between movie actor Ashton Kutcher and news juggernaut CNN to be first to gain one million followers on Twitter, the social-media phenomenon. …

Here’s a video clip of Kutcher on “Larry King Live” tonight (King’s “Norm Coleman” comment comes at the 5:00 mark):

KING: I’m not a sore loser.

KUTCHER: No, you’re not.

KING: I’m not gonna pull a Norm Coleman and take this to the courts.

KUTCHER: You have been gracious, very gracious.

While Coleman sore-losers it up, Democracy for America and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee have introduced a new effort: NormDollar.com, “A Dollar a Day to Make Norm Go Away.”  Very simply put, commit to contributing just one dollar per day for every day that sore loser Norm Coleman refuses to concede. (HT: MPP)

I don’t know if this effort was inspired by Open Left’s AdamGreen’s post laying out a very similar fundraising strategy a little over a week ago, but it is exactly the correct approach to take to provide Republican leadership in Washington with adequate disincentive from continuing to fund Coleman’s endless appeals.  You also have the option of chipping in a bit of change directly to the Franken Recount Fund.