Month: July 2009

Public Policy Polling (6/30-7/2, likely voters):

Creigh Deeds (D): 43

Bob McDonnell (R): 49

(MoE: ±4.0%)

This is PPP’s first post-primary poll, and also the first poll of the race taken after the “bounce period” that had Deeds surging ahead in R2K and Rasmussen‘s most recent sampling. However, this is the first time PPP has dipped its toes into the general election pool, so we have no trend lines to work with here.

Over at PPP, Tom Jensen has more:

Despite trailing, there are several bright spots for Deeds in the numbers. He currently has just a 68-16 lead among African Americans. Democrats frequently under poll with that demographic this far out from an election but usually end up getting 85% or more of that vote come November. There are a lot more undecided Democrats than Republicans, which makes those voters more inclined to end up in the Deeds camp. Deeds’ supporters are also a little more committed than McDonnell’s, with 90% of them saying they will definitely vote for him while just 82% say that for McDonnell.

There are some signs of concern too though. We’re detecting little interest in the race right now from black voters or young voters, both groups that were overwhelmingly supportive of Barack Obama and key to his success in the state last year. We currently project black turnout at 16% of the electorate, down from 20% last year, and voters under 30 at 8%, down from 21% last year. Getting those groups excited about his candidacy and out to the polls will be key to Deeds’ prospects.

The race is in a very similar position to 2005. The poll released that year closest to today’s date of July 7th showed Jerry Kilgore with a 6 point lead identical to the one we found last week. The question now is whether McDonnell can hold onto this lead better than Kilgore did, or if Deeds will be able to replicate Tim Kaine’s success in peaking at just the right time. He certainly did that in the primary.

PPP has also been good enough to give us data on the important downballot statewide races. In the Lt. Governor’s race, incumbent Republican Bill Bolling leads Democrat Jody Wagner by 46-40, and for the open-seat AG race, GOP goon Ken Cuccinelli leads Democrat Steve Shannon by 45-38.

RaceTracker: VA-Gov

Quinnipiac University (6/26-7/1, registered voters, 4/28-5/4 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 37 (42)

Rob Portman (R): 33 (31)

Undecided: 26 (26)

Lee Fisher (D): 36

Tom Ganley (R): 30

Undecided: 31

Jennifer Brunner (D): 35 (40)

Rob Portman (R): 34 (32)

Undecided: 29 (27)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 35

Tom Ganley (R): 31

Undecided: 31

(MoE: ±2.8%)

While they don’t show nearly as big a decline as they did with their Ohio gubernatorial numbers, Quinnipiac also has Democrats slipping in the Senate race. I’m prepared to believe that Democratic fortunes are really heading southward, but I do have to wonder if Q is overstating things. In May, they had Obama’s job approval at 62-31 in the Buckeye State. Now he’s at 49-44. Did his numbers really collapse so dramatically here, despite only a slight downtick nationwide? Perhaps, but I’d like to see confirmation elsewhere.

Anyhow, Quinnipiac has also started testing Tom Ganley’s name – he’s the wealthy car dealer who recently made his entrace into the race official. Portman has a 33-10 lead on Ganley in the primary. On the Dem side, Lee Fisher’s lead over Jennifer Brunner has shrunk to 24-21 (from 31-26), with a lot more folks undecided than previously. With the primary still ages away, I don’t think we can read a lot into these numbers.

RaceTracker: OH-Sen

• MN-Sen: Our long national nightmare is finally over: Senator Al Franken was sworn in today, without any weird last minute gambits by Norm Coleman. Harry Reid announced he’ll be on the HELP, Judiciary, Aging, and Indian Affairs Committees.

• KY-Sen: Jim Bunning, via his regular teleconference with reporters, reminds us that he’s still running for Senate. Bunning also thinks that he won’t outraise SoS Trey Grayson (who raised $600,000 in the 2nd quarter) for the quarter, but it doesn’t matter because Grayson won’t stay in the race if Bunning stays in too.

• OR-Gov: Here’s a surprise: Democratic rising star state Rep. Brian Clem suddenly made his presence known in the Oregon governor’s race, launching an exploratory committee and filling up his coffers with a $500,000 loan from his mother-in-law. The 37-year-old Clem, who has represented part of Salem since 2006, implied that he wouldn’t pull the trigger on a run, though, if former Gov. John Kitzhaber got into the race.

• SC-Gov: Mark Sanford may get to keep his job after all (thanks in part to Sarah Palin creating a distraction). The state GOP voted yesterday to censure Sanford over his doomed tango, rather than call for his resignation.

• HI-01: Roll Call takes a quick look at who might run for the seat being left behind by Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Top of the list is Ed Case, a Blue Dog who used to represent HI-02 but gave up his seat for an ill-fated primary run against Sen. Dan Akaka and pissed off a lot of the Democratic base along the way. They also cite state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, former state House majority leader Kirk Caldwell, state Democratic Party chair Brian Schatz, and also Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, who’s currently exploring the governor’s race but conceivably could switch races if he doesn’t get any traction in the primary against Abercrombie. Also, we can’t rule out Republican Honolulu city councilor Charles Djou, who seems well-thought-of but faces a steep climb given the state’s lean.

• IL-07: CQ provides a similar laundry list of potential candidates in IL-07, assuming Rep. Danny Davis leaves an open seat to run for President of the Cook County Board instead. Davis’s former Chief of Staff Richard Boykin tops the list, but there’s also state Reps. LaShawn Ford and Karen Yarbrough, state Sen. Rickey Hendon, and Aldermen Dorothy Tillman and Ed Smith. (No mention of any Republicans here, unsurprising since it’s D+35.)

• NY-03: Here are some folks who’d especially like Rep. Peter King to Beat It, following his Off the Wall remarks disparaging the nonstop coverage of Michael Jackson. They’ve started “Michael Jackson Fans Against Peter King” on ActBlue and have already raised several thousand dollars for whoever steps up to run in the 3rd.

• NY-14: With Rep. Carolyn Maloney looking more likely to follow through on her Senate primary challenge, state Sen. Liz Krueger, whose turf closely overlaps the 14th, has been getting a lot of encouragement to run for the open seat. Krueger sounds politely interested, saying “I’ve never been in Congress so I don’t know if it’s less frustrating. But I suspect pretty much any job in the United States of America would be less frustrating than Albany in the last three weeks.”

• NY-23: A potentially strong candidate for the GOP nomination in the upcoming NY-23 special election has taken himself out of consideration: Assemblyman Will Barclay. Unfortunately for us, this may make the primary path easier for moderate GOP Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who would be a tougher general election foe; the more conservative Barclay, remember, was the loser of the state Senate special election to Darrel Aubertine last year. Two other minor GOPers added their names to the list as well: YMCA director Andrew Bisselle and businessman Bart Bonner.

• OH-15: His candidacy was already well in the works, but GOP former state Senator Steve Stivers made it official today that he’s seeking a rematch against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy, who barely won the open seat in 2008. Stivers may have an opening in 2010 if there’s less Obama-driven college turnout in this district dominated by Ohio St., and no pro-life independent candidate siphoning votes from his right flank.

• TN-09: Burned-out Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton seems to have a pattern and practice of delaying his planned resignations whenever things don’t quite go right for him. Herenton, who’d planned to resign in order to devote himself full-time to his primary challenge to Rep. Steve Cohen, pushed back his resignation date (planned for July 11) to July 30, citing some unfinished items of business.

• House: The Hill throws together an interesting catch-all of ten “dark horse” House races, one of which is already threatening to be top tier (TX-10), one of which features an intriguing Dem primary (FL-02), and some of which are interesting because of changing demographics (TX-32) or changing political tides (all three Dem seats in Arkansas).

• DGA/RGA: In keeping with the sense that the real battlegrounds in 2010 are going to be the gubernatorial races, the DGA and RGA are both raising like gangbusters. The DGA raised $11.6 million in the first half of the year, a record for them, but the RGA nosed ahead of them, raising $12.2 million.

• Census: A coalition of Colorado local governments joins New York’s legislature in laying out its own funds to help assist the Census Bureau in putting together an accurate count by reducing undercounting. While Colorado isn’t likely to gain or lose a House seat in 2010, it’s still important in terms of securing federal funds, and with much of the state’s growth coming among Latinos, the risk of undercounting is high.

• Campaign Finance: Florida’s Republican SoS, Kurt Browning, has decided not to appeal a federal court’s ruling that found a state law regulating 527s was unconstitutional. With major implications for the Florida governor’s race, now 527s can operate without disclosure requirements on who they are and who funds them. (Florida has strict $500 limits on individual contributions, so 527s are especially important there.)

• Trivia: Wondering who the last Governor to resign in mid-term to focus on a presidential run was? New York’s Nelson Rockefeller, in 1973. He never made it to the presidential run, although he did wind up briefly serving as Gerald Ford’s fill-in vice-president.

• DSCC: Friend of SSP and once-and-future DKos editor Arjun Jaikumar (f/k/a brownsox) is not just the DSCC’s new media guru – he’s also up for The Hill’s 50 Most Beautiful in DC. Vote for the good-looking bastard by sending an email. (D)

Breaking:

NH AG Kelly Ayotte (R) will resign today in a run-up to a Senate bid; she should be putting out a press release shortly, a GOP strategist tells me. She is expected to announce her desire to run for retiring GOP Sen. Judd Gregg’s seat at a later date.

Ayotte, the state’s first female AG, will stay in her job until 7/17.

Of course, doing so would mean she’s going back on her pledge to Gov. John Lynch that she’d serve out a full term as Attorney General. Then again, any Dem who expects ambitious Republican office-holders to keep their word is sort of letting themselves get played for a fool, no?

Here is another Democratic gerrymander. I chose Minnesota because the majority of the poll voters picked it. For those of you who voted for Georgia, that is my next state.  For Minnesota, a gerrymander like this is possible but it could be a long shot. This would only happen if the Democrats retain the State Legislature and capture the Governorship. I drew this map assuming that Minnesota would lose one electoral vote. I probably was able to create a 6-1 Democratic map even though there is a chance it might be a 5-2 Democratic map. My main objectives were to keep all Democrats safe while weakening Republican Erik Paulsen of the 3rd district and combining Republicans John Kline and Michelle Bachman. They are both so Conservative so at least we can knock away one of them. The pink lines are the boundaries of the old districts.  Here is the link to my maps http://frogandturtle.blogspot.com

District 1 Tim Walz (D) Blue

Even though I would have loved to strengthen Walz but I could do that because I needed enough Democratic counties to protect Collin Peterson (D) in the 6th district. Anyway, this district is pretty much the same as it is except I took in Democratic leaning Rice and Lincoln Counties as well Le Suer and part of Goodhue County. Le Suer and Goodhue are both marginal. I probably raised the Obama performance in the district by just a bit. I estimate that Obama won 52% to 53% of the vote here. The racial stats are 91% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

District 2 John Kline (R) vs. Michelle Bachman (R) Green

I have heard some talk from Republicans about combining Minneapolis and St. Paul into one district. I bet they did not consider that the Democrats could combine most of the Republican suburban areas into one district. I strengthened the 2nd district’s Republican performance by adding more Republican territory near St. Cloud and removing Rice County. McCain probably won only 55% of the vote here so a strong Democrat could possibly make it competitive. Michelle Bachman’s home Stillwater is in the district. The 2nd district contains part of her old 6th so she will probably choose to run here. John Kline is more entrenched so he will probably win, forcing Michelle Bachman to finally get out of Congress. Racial stats are 90% White. Status is Safe Republican if Kline wins, Likely Republican if Bachman wins.

District 3 Erik Paulsen (R) Purple

I know one thing about this district; Paulsen is in for a tough race with this district. He was elected in 2008 so he had almost no time to become entrenched into his district. To weaken him, I removed part of western Hennepin County, put in the most urban parts of Washington County and added some heavily Democratic areas in Minneapolis. Paulsen won by eight points in 2008 against Ashwin Maida, an impressive candidate. This definitely drops the chances of clearly knocking off Paulsen but with some new territory, it should be much easier. Obama won 56%-57% of the vote here. Racial stats are 8% African American, 6% Asian and 81% White. Status is Toss Up/Tilt Democratic.

District 4 Betty McCollum (D) Red

Her district looks very different from the one she has now. I had to unfortunately extend it out into the Republican suburbs because of population loss and the elimination of Michelle Bachman’s district. Her district extends all the way out to St. Cloud now. Ramsey County gave Obama a margin of 96,000 votes and the part McCollum has Obama probably pulled out a 75,000 vote margin there. The suburban part of the district probably gave McCain a 15,000 vote margin. A 60,000 Obama margin should be enough to protect McCollum. If Bachman decided to run here, she would probably not win. Obama probably won 59% of the vote here. The racial stats are 6% African American, 6% Asian, 6% Hispanic and 79% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 5 Keith Ellison (D) Yellow

Even though I slipped in part of the old 3rd district, Keith Ellison should have no worries. Minneapolis will keep him safe and sound. Obama probably won here with 68%-72% of the vote. Racial stats are 10% African American, 8% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 73% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 6 Collin Peterson (D) Teal

Even though I have tried to strengthen every Democrat here, I had to weaken Peterson a bit. I took away a few northern Counties that lean Democratic and added some of Stearns and Sherburne Counties which lean Republican. I may have compensated for those counties by adding a touch of Minneapolis. Weakening Peterson should not hurt him much. He is a moderate Democrat who is the chairman of the Agriculture Committee and has been representing the 7th district since 1991. He should be safe even though McCain probably won 51% of the vote here. Racial stats are 90% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 James Oberstar (D) Gray

This district has slow population growth so I had to extend it to the North Dakota border. The counties there lean Democratic so the new additions do not alter the 7th district’s political leanings much. It would not matter how many Republicans are here because Oberstar has represented this district since the 1970’s. He creamed former Senator Rod Grams when he ran for House in 2006. No question about it, Oberstar is safe. Obama probably received 56% of the vote here. Racial stats are 93% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

This is my first diary, so please excuse my formatting and other technical ineptitudes.  I have maps, so if someone can tell me in the comments how to add them, I will add them.

I wanted to gerrymander Ohio (using Dave’s Redistricting App) for the likely 16 districts it will have after the 2010 census with the following goals in mind:

1) Make sure Republicans lose both seats lost to redistricting

2) Create(or maintain) strong Democratic districts in Southern Ohio in Cincinnati and Dayton

3) Eliminate Steve Latourette

4) Keep Ohio’s major cities and counties as intact as possible.

With that in mind, the following gerrymander would potentially create a 12-4 democratic split in Ohio (maybe even 13-3).

Southwest Ohio

District 1 (Royal Blue)- Steve Driehaus should love this new district as it now falls completely within Hamilton County and excludes the parts of more conservative Butler county were harder for him to win.  Although his home actually falls just outside of the district boundaries as drawn, the map could be tweaked to include his home while still strengthening the Democratic lean.

District 2 (Forest Green)- This district now becomes a suburban Cincinnati district, including Warren and Butler counties and parts of Hamilton and Clermont.  Although it is regionally much more compact, this district should still be one of three slam dunk Republican districts.

District 3 (Purple)- The new shape of this district should help to swing it to the Democratic column.  Including all of the urban parts of Montgomery County (Dayton), the suburban parts of Greene county, and Springfield in Clark county, Mike Turner’s days would be numbered.

District 4 (Red)- Another slam dunk Republican district that packs as many uber-red counties into one seat.  Now stretches from the Indiana border all the way through Holmes and Knox counties in east-central Ohio.  Would be even safer for Jim Jordan

Northwest Ohio

District 5 (Yellow)- This is where things start to get interesting.  This is Bob Latta’s district, and it still should stay Republican, but almost by accident, I have made this district significantly more swingy.  Giving its far western counties to the 9th in exchange for Sandusky county and big chunks of Lorain county (including Oberlin and Elyria) a moderate populist Democrat could surely compete here.  I haven’t yet figured out how to calculate the PVI of this new district…definitely closer to a toss-up than a Republican slam dunk.

District 6 (Teal Blue)- This district did not change very much for Charlie Wilson except that it had to get bigger because of the loss of seats statewide.  Adding in the rest of Athens county and Scioto county (Democratic areas) and a bit of Portage county (Republican) should basically leave the district with little change.

Southeast Ohio

District 7 (Grey)- This massive district in central and southern eastern Ohio is really a combination of the old 7th and 18th.  Because it still includes most of Zach Space’s old district (Tuscarawas, Muskingum, and Ross counties) as well as the Columbus exurbs, this should be a Democratic hold, although not being able to strengthen Zach Space is definitely one of the weaknesses of this map.

District 8 (Lavender) Just to screw with John Boehner, this district became the catch-all Southern Ohio republican district.  Still a deep shade of red, this district now stretches from the Indiana border all the way to Columbus and down to the Ohio River.  Making Boehner campaign in 3 media markets (Cincinnati, Columbus, and Dayton) sure would be fun, although this seat is just as safe as his old one.

District 9 (Aqua Blue) In the first of three pissed of Democratic incumbents, Marcy Kaptur probably would not love these changes to her district, although it really does not weaken her Democratic strength too much.  Having her pick up the four rural northwest Ohio counties while giving parts of Lorain and Sandusky county to the fifth should allow her to still cruise based on the strength of her base in Lucas county, while giving Democrats a legitimate change to knock of Bob Latta.

Northeast Ohio

District 10 (Hot Pink) Some big changes to Kucinich’s district, although it will remain heavily democratic.  In exchange for giving up a bit of his inner city west side of Cleveland territory, Dennis picks up the city of Lorain and the northern part of Elyria in Lorain county.  This district makes much more sense than the current lines which have this part of Lorain County lumped in with much more distant Akron (Betty Sutton’s district).  Should remain reliably Democratic (if this is what you can call Dennis).

District 11 (Lime Green) This district doesn’t change too much, although it had to get bigger to account for the loss of population in some of these Cleveland suburbs.  This district grows a bit further into the west side of Cleveland (to keep it majority-African American) and quite a bit into the eastern suburbs of Cuyahoga and Geauga county.  Steven Latourette would now live in this district, although he would have no chance to win it.

District 12 (Powder Blue) The first of the Columbus districts, these lines were changed to take out Delaware county in exchange for the rest of Licking and the rest of Southern Franklin county.  This district will remain a swing district, possibly with a slight Republican lean.  Hopefully it would give a strong Democratic candidate a chance to knock of Tiberi.

District 13 (Light Pink) In what could be pissed off incumbent Democrat number two, Betty Sutton’s district gets a major facelift, giving up parts of Lorain and Media counties in exchange for all of Summit county and some of the Republican parts of Geauga and Portage counties.  Since she lives outside Akron and has her base in Summit county, this should allow her to still get reelected easily, even though the district becomes slightly more Republican.  Should still be an easy Democratic hold.

District 14 (Olive Green) This district becomes the battle royale between the old 17th and 14th.  Because it includes all of Trumbull county and the city of Youngstown in Mahoning, Ryan should easily be able to end Steve Latourette’s political career (not a moment too soon!)  Including the Northeast corner of the state including swingy Lake county, Ryan could really build a political base for a future statewide run from this district.

District 15 (Orange) This district should hopefully strengthen Mary Jo Kilroy by giving her larger portions of Franklin county and the suburban areas of Delaware county.  Losing Union and Madison counties takes the most heavily Republican areas out of this district.

District 16 (Bright Green)  This district doesn’t change much, but the minor changes should help to strengthen John Boccieri.  The district gives up Republican Ashland county while picking up Kent in Portage County (university town) and the Cleveland suburbs in northern Medina county.

When we last checked in on Nebraska’s 2nd District, Democratic state Sen. Tom White (well, the unicameral is officially nonpartisan, but…) was seriously considering jumping into the race, and said that he’d make a decision sometime this month. Well, it looks like Senator White is giving the green light to a House bid:

State Sen. Tom White of Omaha plans to begin raising money for an expected challenge of U.S. Rep. Lee Terry in a race that’s already gaining national attention from Republican and Democratic headquarters.

White said he will create an exploratory committee, the first step before the launch of a full-scale campaign. The exploratory committee allows White to raise cash while wooing supporters.

White, 52, is a civil rights attorney and longtime Democrat who has served three years in the Nebraska Legislature. He plans to make a final decision later this year about running.

He says the time is right for Democrats to reclaim the House seat they lost in the so-called Republican Revolution of 1994. He said the party needs to capitalize on President Barack Obama winning an electoral vote in the 2nd Congressional District.

“The Obama people are still here. The people who were energized by his campaign, the people who filled the convention center (for an Obama visit) are still here, the people who came to the caucuses are still here,” said White.

I like White quite a bit for this seat; he’s already shown some serious spunk in his early broadsides against Terry for his hypocrisy in voting against the recent war supplemental funding bill, and his time spent in the unicameral neutralizes the “experience” argument that Terry effectively used against Democrat Jim Esch last year.

While this will no doubt be a tough (but fun) race, I assume that White is in this to win — and that this exploratory phase is merely a formality. (In the diaries, X Stryker has more.)

RaceTracker: NE-02

Sounds like a Class A opportunist:

Cahill has made little secret of his ambitions for the governor’s office but hasn’t said whether he’ll challenge Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick, who plans to run for a second term.

Cahill is more conservative than Patrick and would have faced an uphill fight to win the Democratic Party nomination, given that the party’s primary voters tend to be more liberal than the party, or the electorate, as a whole.

Cahill had previously acknowledged that he was considering the party switch, given the daunting task of trying to unseat an incumbent Democrat.

“It’s just an option that I have to consider, given I have a governor of my own party who is, as of now, planning to run for re-election,” Cahill said last month.

A Suffolk University poll actually showed Cahill beating Patrick in a primary, but apparently he doesn’t have the stomach for that. Back in 2006, this race also saw an independent candidate, but the well-funded Christy Mihos (who is running as a Republican this time) pulled just 7%. Evidently Cahill thinks he can do much better.

The Swing State Project currently rates this race as Likely Dem, but that may change in a hurry (and also potentially mess up our lovely chart if Cahill gains traction).

RaceTracker: MA-Gov

Jeffmd and I have started working with Dave to bring election data to Dave’s Redistricting App. In the meantime, some folks (like Nico, doing Arizona) have delved into precinct-level data to add all-important political information to their redistricting projects.

Some states make this information readily available; others force you to collect it county-by-county. Below is a list of states which have complete statewide precinct files (graciously hosted by another Dave – Dave Leip of the indispensable Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections):

And, as always, you can find precinct data (that isn’t otherwise available on the web) for a whole bunch of individual counties at SSP’s Document Collection on Scribd. Hope you find these helpful!