Month: July 2009

I’m starting up this series again.  I’m going to try to do at least 2 rounds before the 2010 election.

It will be an update of the previous series, which makes it a lot easier, as some things haven’t changed.

Going alphabetically, we have Alaska, Arizona and Arkansas

Summary:

Alaska should be safe for the Repubs, but you never know.

In Arizona only the 1st and 3rd look to be in play; in AZ-01, Kirkpatrick is a freshman Democrat in a Republican district; in AZ-03, a wingnut (Shadegg) may retire.

Arkansas was so weird in 2008 that I can’t really say, but I’m guessing there will be no switches.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

Alaska has one representative – A Republican.

Arizona has 8 representatives – 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans.  

Arkansas has 4 representatives – 3 Democrats and 1 Republican.  

District:   AK-AL

Location You know where Alaska is!

Representative Don Young (R) possibly retiring

VoteView ranking 320/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1973

2008 margin 50-45

2006 margin 57-40

2004 margin 71-22

Obama margin 2008 39-61

Bush margin 2004 61-36

Current opponents Ethan Berkowitz, who ran in 2008, may run again.  Primary is also possible.

Demographics Alaska has a higher percentage of veterans than most places (16.4%, 30th place); it’s also about the 50th most Republican district, in national races.

Assessment Ordinarily, AK is about as Republican as it gets.

District: AZ-01

Location  The northeastern three-quarters of the state, bordering UT and CO, with a chunk missing: map

Representative Ann Kirkpatrick(D)

VoteView ranking 270/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2008

2008 margin 56-40 over Sydney Hay

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents  Paul Gosar, maybe others

Demographics Poorer (median income is $33K, about 371st place;  and more rural (44.5%, 363rd place) than most districts; 10th highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (22.1% Native American)

Assessment Renzi (R) retired, and Kirkpatrick won fairly easily; I have little information here.

District: AZ-02   May retire

Location An oddly shaped district, it includes the northwest part of the state (bordering NV and UT) and a blob in the northern middle of the state, connected by a strand (this is tribal gerrymandering, separating two Native American groups), and another blob that reaches to the western suburbs of Phoenix: map

Representative Trent Franks (R)

VoteView ranking 442/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2002

2008 margin 60-37 over John Thrasher

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 2008 38-61

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents None yet

Demographics Only 7 districts have more veterans.

Assessment A longshot, whether Franks retires or not.  Franks is one of the most conservative members of the House.

District: AZ-03

Location North of Phoenix, including Paradise Valley and Carefree: map

Representative  John Shadegg (R) May retire

VoteView ranking 443/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1994

2008 margin 54-42 over Bob Lord

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 80-20 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 2008 42-57

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Bob Lord may run again.

Demographics Not unusual on any of the statistics I track

Assessment This is Republican territory, but not overwhelmingly; Shadegg is a real rightwinger, but Lord lost in 2008.

District: AZ-04

Location Phoenix and Glendale: map

Representative Ed Pastor (D)

VoteView ranking 65/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1991

2008 margin 72-21 over Don Karg

2006 margin 73-24

2004 margin 70-26

Obama margin 2008 66-33

Bush margin 2004 38-62

Current opponents None declared, Karg may run again.

Demographics Poor (median income = $31K, rank = 402) and with a huge Latino population (58%, rank = 20).

Assessment Safe

District: AZ-05

Location East and north of Phoenix, including Tempe: map

Representative  Harry Mitchell (D)

VoteView ranking 230/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2006

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 53-45 over David Schweikert.

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 47-52

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents David Schweikert, possibly others.

Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $52K, rank = 83), with a high proportion of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (7.2%, rank = 134; including 3.3% Asian and 1.8% Native American).  

Assessment Mitchell beat Schweikert as a freshman, he should do so again.

District: AZ-06

Location In the southeastern part of AZ, but not bordering any other state: map  

Representative Jeff Flake (R) May retire

VoteView ranking 445/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 62-35 over Rebecca Schneider

2006 margin 75-25 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 79-21 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 2008 38-61

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None declared, Schneider may run again.

Demographics Lots of veterans (15.8%, rank = 45) and Latinos (17.2%, rank = 105).

Assessment This is a longshot; Flake is crazy, and wins easily.  A less crazy Repub might win more easily.

District: AZ-07

Location Southwestern AZ, bordering CA and Mexico: map

Representative Raul Grijalva (D)

VoteView ranking 24/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2002

2008 margin 63-33 over John Sweeney

2006 margin 61-34

2004 margin 62-34

Obama margin 2008 57-42

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Current opponents Ruth McClung

Demographics Very poor (median income $31K, rank = 10) and mostly Latino (50.6%, rank = 23)

Assessment Safe

District: AZ-08

Location The southeast corner of AZ, bordering Mexico and NM: map

Representative Gabrielle Gifford (D)

VoteView ranking 231/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2006

2008 margin 55-43 over Tim Bee

2006 margin 54-42

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 46-52

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Current opponents Jesse Kelly

Demographics Another district with a lot of veterans (19.1%, rank = 20)

Assessment  Giffords has now won twice, and should be OK again.  

District: AR-01

Location The northeast portion of AR, including Jonesboro, bordering MO, TN, and MS: map

Representative Marion Berry (D) May retire

VoteView ranking 183/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1996

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Current opponents Rick Crawford

Demographics One of the most rural (55.5%, rank = 26) and poorest (median income = $29K, rank = 417) districts.

Assessment Berry, among the most conservative Democrats in the House, is probably safe if he runs; if not, this will be tough to hold.

District: AR-02

Location The middle of the state, including Little Rock: map

Representative Vic Snyder (D)

VoteView ranking 172/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1996

2008 margin 77-23 against Deb McFarland (Green)

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 58-42

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents Possibly David Meeks

Demographics Not unusual on anything I track

Assessment Safe

District: AR-03

Location Northwestern AR, including Fayetteville, bordering MO and OK: map

Representative John Boozman (R) May retire

VoteView ranking 312/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2001

2008 margin 78-22 against Abel Tomlinson (Green)

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 59-38

Obama margin 2008 34-63

Bush margin 2004 62-36

Current opponents Larry Stricklin (needs a website)

Demographics Not unusual on anything I track

Assessment Longshot

District: AR-04

Location Southern AR bordering LA, TX and OK: map

Representative Mike Ross (D)

VoteView ranking 213/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 86-14 against Joshua Drake (Green)

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 2008 39-58

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Poor (median income = $30K, rank = 124), Black (24.4%, rank = 66) and rural (55.3% rank = 28)

Assessment Safe

State Sen. Tom White filed papers today to form an exploratory committee to run for congress in Nebraska’s second district as a Democrat against Republican Lee Terry. He sent out an email to supporters and posted a diary at DailyKos announcing the filing, putting an emphasis on health care reform and jobs. Senator White was previously mentioned here on SSP which seems to have caught White’s attention – it’s the first post listed in his candidate website newsroom, followed by stories from Roll Call, the Omaha World Herald, and the progressive blog New Nebraska Network (where he also posted an announcement diary today).

White’s official press release lists his legislative accomplishments as follows:

Passed the Taxpayer Transparency Act, which will cut wasteful spending by putting Nebraska’s checkbook online for taxpayers to monitor spending and tax incentives.

Passed legislation to add screen names and email addresses to sex offender registry, giving parents important tools to keep their kids safe online.

Passed legislation to create quality jobs by increasing the research and development tax credit for research conducted at colleges and universities in Nebraska.

Passed legislation to increase access to affordable healthcare by allowing 20-somethings to stay on their parents insurance.

As a member of the Revenue Committee, was involved in eliminating the marriage penalty in the state income tax and the state estate tax.

Passed the Military Family Leave Act to help spouses and families of those on active duty. It also bars employers from discriminating against those called to active duty.

Ex-Rep. Steve Pearce was last seen playing Wile E. Coyote to Tom Udall’s Roadrunner on some New Mexico backroad last year. Today, he announced that he’ll be back in 2010, to try and reclaim NM-02 from Democratic Rep. Harry Teague, who picked up the open seat in 2008. This comes as a bit of a surprise, as Pearce was considered a top contender for the GOP nomination for New Mexico’s open gubernatorial race in 2010. Pearce framed his decision in terms of Teague’s recent vote in favor of cap-and-trade in this oil-and-gas dependent district:

Former New Mexico congressman Steve Pearce told POLITICO today that he is running for his old House seat – primarily because of Teague’s vote on the energy bill. Pearce had been preparing to run for governor, but said Teague’s vote forced him to rethink his priorities.

“The cap-and-trade vote [from Teague] is the thing that put my decision over the hump,” Pearce said in an interview with POLITICO. “I was absolutely stunned over his vote. When he made the cap-and-trade vote, the hostility in the district was reflected in the way we feel out here. There are 23,000 statewide jobs in the oil and gas industry – and if this bill is passed, this will kill many of those jobs.”

NM-02 may also be a more fruitful target for Pearce than running statewide, as it’s an R+6 district that barely went for John McCain, 50-49, compared with Obama’s 57-42 win statewide… and also considering the one poll of NM-Gov (for the DGA) showed him getting squashed. Plus, this way he doesn’t have to introduce himself to the other two-thirds of the state (since clearly whatever he was doing in 2008 didn’t take). Unfortunately for the Republicans, however, this leaves a field of nobodies in the hunt for the GOP nod for NM-Gov, led by National Guard Brig. Gen. Greg Zanetti. Ex-Rep. Heather Wilson is the only heavy hitter who hasn’t said “no” yet.

• FL-Sen: Endorsements from U.S. House members aren’t usually a big deal, but this is an interesting one: Charlie Crist just got the endorsement of Los Bros. Diaz-Balart (both Mario and Lincoln), despite the presence of a fellow hawkish Cuban-American in the race (ex-state House speaker Marco Rubio). Not entirely surprising, though, as the Diaz-Balart brothers are generally on the moderate side of the GOP caucus, and have gone for Establishment over Cubano ties in previous endorsements (as in the Senate primary of 2004, when they supported Bill McCollum over Mel Martinez, who still went on to win Miami-Dade County with 80% of the vote en route to narrowly beating McCollum statewide).

Meanwhile, that pleasant golden glow coming from the Crist camp isn’t from his surreal tan, but from the huge pile of money he’s amassed. Crist is expected to announce shortly that he raised $3 million in the last six weeks.

• NV-Sen, NV-02: Rep. Dean Heller still didn’t make it explicit, but it sounds like he won’t be running against Harry Reid in 2010 (and he may also be hinting against a run in the gubernatorial primary). He emphatically said that he “likes his district, likes his constituents and likes his committee assignment” (a valuable spot on Ways and Means).

• AK-Gov: Now that Sarah Palin has some free time on her hands, Michael Steele is tugging on her sleeve and asking for some love for the NJ-Gov and VA-Gov races. (Although I gotta wonder how she’ll play in those states where Obama cleaned up in 2008, and where the educated voters tend to be… how shall I put this delicately? Meritocratic.) Here’s one other interesting bit of news that actually predates Palin’s Freaky Friday by several days: Democratic state Senator Hollis French filed a letter of intent to run for Governor in 2010 (despite fellow Dem Ethan Berkowitz’s potential presence in the race), although who knows if he’ll stay interested now that the race will be against a semi-incumbent Sean Parnell.

One other thought about Alaska that just about everyone in the tradmed seems to be missing. Sarah Palin did have a job in between being mayor of Wasilla and Alaska Governor: she was chair of Frank Murkowski’s Oil and Gas Commission. How long was she on this Commission? Less than a year… until she quit in January 2004 with a big public huff (leaving the Commission in the lurch with only one member), saying “the experience was taking the ‘oomph’ out of her passion for government service and she decided to quit rather than becoming bitter.” She publicly cited her frustration with being unable to be all straight-talky and mavericky about the corruption and backbiting on the Commission, but the resignation also came at a very convenient time for switching over to lay the groundwork for her successful 2006 gubernatorial run.

• PA-Gov: If the Democratic primary for the Governor’s race in Pennsylvania were to be decided by nothing but money, Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato would be winning in a cakewalk. At quarter’s end, he reports more than $4 million in cash on hand, compared with likely rival Auditor Jack Wagner, who has about $325,000. Philly businessman Tom Knox isn’t required to report as he doesn’t hold office, but can self-finance as needed.

• CA-10: Finally, we have a vote for the special election in CA-10. Arnold Schwarzenegger set the date for Sep. 1 for the all-party primary, which in this dark-blue district is where all the action will be, with three top-tier Democrats in the field and a couple intriguing minor Dems as well (but only a minor GOP stand-in). However, under California law, if no one candidate breaks 50% in the primary (which is unlikely to happen with such a crowded Dem field) the race won’t officially be over it goes to a runoff where the Dem faces off against said GOPer, which is set for the regularly scheduled Election Day of Nov. 3.

• FL-24: Yet another GOPer is poised to jump into the race to take on Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in the R+3 Orlando-area district: state Rep. Sandy Adams. She will join state Rep. Dorothy Hulkill, who had announced her intentions last week but officially filed today. (She also joins Winter Park City Councilor Karen Diebel, who got a lot of touting for a day or two before seemingly getting shoved over.)

• Votes: Although we’re only halfway through the year, CQ already has initial party unity scores available for all the members of Congress, as well as similar “presidential support scores.” [UPDATE: Now that I’ve had the time to go over the party unity scores with a fine-toothed comb, I can report that the House Dems are being a much more unified party than the GOP, despite the fact that there are a lot more Democrats overall, and a lot more Democrats coming from districts that lean against them at the presidential level. There are 27 GOPers who have party unity scores below 80% (basically the entire Main Street Partnership: Biggert, Capito Moore, Castle, Dent, L. Diaz-Balart, M. Diaz-Balart, Ehlers, Emerson, Gerlach, T. Johnson, P. King, Kirk, La Tourette, Lance, Lo Biondo, McHugh, C. Miller, T. Murphy, Platts, Reichert, Ros-Lehtinen, C. Smith, Turner, Upton, Wolf, B. Young, and D. Young), while there are only 13 Democrats (the most hardcore of the Blue Dogs: Altmire, Bright, Donnelly, Griffith, Hill, Kirkpatrick, Kratovil, Marshall, Minnick, Mitchell, Nye, Shuler, and G. Taylor). The ratio is similar on the Senate side, with 7 on the GOP side (Collins, Gregg, Lugar, Martinez, Murkowski, Snowe, and Voinovich) and 4 on the Dem side (Bayh, Feingold, and Ben Nelson, plus Specter, although he spent the majority of that period as a GOPer)].

Quinnipiac University (6/26-7/1, registered voters, 4/28-5/4 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 42 (51)

John Kasich (R): 38 (32)

Undecided: 16 (16)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41 (48)

Mike DeWine (R): 40 (36)

Undecided: 15 (14)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Something seriously ugly has happened here. Strickland’s approvals fell from 53-25 in May to just 42-37 now. It’s easy to say that it’s “the economy,” but the economy has been disastrous for a long time at this point. Quinnipiac offers almost nothing in the way of explanation (“Strickland’s extremely sharp drop-off in so short a time reflects growing public frustration”).

The only other outfit which has tested this race, PPP, has similar numbers for Strickland, but never showed the kind of steep topline drop we see here from Q. However, these lates nums do help resolve the OH-Gov mystery that Tom Jensen previously highlighted, and unfortunately for Dems, it looks like PPP is right (at least for now).

RaceTracker: OH-Gov

I decided to take on Arizona with its unique redistricting rules. Contrary to many states, Arizona focuses less on incumbent protection and even competitiveness, and more on “communities of interest” (though doesn’t really provide a clear definition for what this means). Additionally, as evidence by the 2000 map which sought unsuccessfully to make Arizona a 5R-3D state in line with its partisan leanings, they will very likely address the fact that the current 5D-3R doesn’t look like Arizona either and draw definitely one and likely both of the new districts so that they elect Republicans. On the same token I’d expect them to address the fact that there’s sort of a problem when Obama won 45% of the vote here yet he has the potential to only have won 2 of the 10 districts, so thus I chose to create a 3rd Obama district. As they do kinda take into consideration competitiveness, at least as an afterthought, 5 of the 8 old districts are now closer to 50-50 than they were before. I opted not to create a 3rd Hispanic-majority district, as I really don’t think that a third one will be mandated by the Justice Department. In fact, as best as I can tell, AZ-07 wasn’t required in 2000, either (remember, despite popular opinion whenever someone redistricts Louisiana here, the Justice Department doesn’t actually require that the percent of districts that a state has that are minority-majority must be equal to the percent of it’s population that is Hispanic (otherwise Texas would look much, much better for us)). However, they will likely require that there is a working Hispanic majority in a second district, thus AZ-07 should see a bit of an uptick in its Hispanic population. That being said, it’s still a very legitimate possibility that the redistricting commission opts to create a 3rd Hispanic-majority district anyway, though there probably isn’t a strong a “community of interest” argument for one this time around (as the two largest Hispanic communities, South Phoenix & the border, are already covered and the next largest, the southern part of the West Valley, doesn’t really have a large enough Hispanic community just yet.

I calculated political data based off these maps for the 2004 and 2008 presidential races to provide more depth to this map, as I’ve noticed that a lot of the recent maps rely on at best educated guesses for what the actual political realities are on the ground. While I’m confident enough in my data to post it, it likely isn’t perfect. Arizona doesn’t have townships or anything like that, so sometimes it’s difficult to figure out exactly where precincts belong. Additionally, I’d like to thank Dave and his awesome Redistrict Application, which made this possible.

Finally, I’m perfectly aware that the nature of the rules in Arizona means that someone could come in with the same basic goals that I have and come out with a very different map, so I’d love to here what other people have to think.

AZ-01 (Blue): Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, R+3.4

-Flagstaff, Douglas, Payson

54% White, 23% American Indian, 19% Hispanic

More rural than ever (Flagstaff is the only town larger than 20K), the new AZ-01 drops the urban-suburban regions of Pinal County while maintaining its decidedly rural and Hispanic eastern edge, and pulls out of most of the rapidly urbanizing Prescott area, hanging on to only the more rural edges like Chino. Meanwhile, it picks up the ranching region of Cochise County (which like the rest of the Anglo population of eastern Arizona, has become quite conservative but remains somewhat Dem-friendly at the local level) along with some more liberal border towns; I’d argue that Cochise County outside SV makes a lot more sense in Kirkpatrick’s district than Giffords’ from the communities of interest POV.

The ditching of Evangelical-heavy Prescott does help to make this district somewhat more Democratic, but it also means that it’s trending Republican faster than ever as that corridor of Mormons, ranchers, and miners in Eastern AZ starting South of the Navajo Nation and ending somewhere immediately north of Douglas and Bisbee grow more Republican by the minute (and it won’t have the potentially Dem-trending suburbs of Pinal County to counteract that anymore). This may be a genuine Gore-Bush-McCain district, though, and the possibility is quite good that Obama wins it in 2012 if he carries AZ.

John McCain won 52% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Apache	15390	8551	295	24236		15658	8384	156	24198
Cochise (part)	10534	13661	420	24615		10272	12096	285	22653
Coconino (part)	31248	22126	723	54097		29030	22465	383	51378
Gila	7884	14095	337	22316		8314	12343	186	20843
Graham	3487	8376	144	12007		3185	7467	68	10720
Greenlee	1165	1712	36	2913		1146	1899	22	3067
Maricopa (part)	1091	809	40	1940		1138	696	14	1848
Navajo (part)	14879	19592	455	34926		14035	17116	247	31398
Pinal (part)	4328	4512	116	8956		4420	3909	59	8388
Yavapai (part)	17885	27393	705	45983		16091	23516	329	39936
Total	107891	120827	3271	231989		103289	109891	1749	214929

AZ-02 (Red): Rep. Trent Franks, R+7.5

-Glendale, western Phoenix, Avondale

55% White, 33% Hispanic, 5% Black

While I ended up opting against drawing an Arizona map with a third Hispanic majority district (though there’s a good argument for one and that may be my next project), I did have to address the fact that there’s a relatively large and rapidly growing Hispanic population in Phoenix’s suburb’s southern West Valley that is currently mostly in 7th. I decided that a Phoenix district had to take them on to maximize their voice, and the Glendale-based 2nd district was the obvious choice. Additionally, as I ceded Peoria & the exburbs to the new 9th, this district had to go deeper into western Phoenix, now going clear east to I-17 though northern and much of central Phoenix and has to take in a few precincts in south western Phoenix for population purposes.

Trent Franks would find himself in a bit of pickle. On one hand this district is clearly Dem-trending (I could see it voting Democratic on the presidential level as early as 2012) and the growth of the Hispanic population will eventually drown him. Meanwhile, there’s an invitingly Republican district directly to the West and surely most of the conservative establishment, much of which was represented by Franks for the past 6 years anyway, will bow to this noted douchebag far-right luminary. That being said, Franks has a coveted seat on the Armed Services committee–a seat he may lose if he’s chooses not to represent Luke Air Force Base, which is still in the 2nd along with most of its employee. If Franks were to decide he only supports the troops when they’re in safe districts and bails, Republicans would still have a pretty good chance of holding this district with State Sen. Linda Gray or Glendale mayor Elaine Scruggs being potentially leading candidates, though we’d have a legitimate shot with someone like Avondale mayor Marie Lopez Rogers. Otherwise, look for Franks to be in the race of his life sometime around 2014.

John McCain won 54% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	86328	103617	3250	193195		69754	94108	1050	164912

AZ-03 (Purple): Rep. John Shadegg, R+12.0

-Northern Phoenix, northern Scottsdale, New River

83% White, 11% Hispanic

Based around the tract homes and gated communities of McMansions that have popped up in northern Maricopa County here in the last 20 years, this is probably the wealthiest district in Arizona. It sheds much of the more culturely liberal neighborhoods in central Phoenix, now beginning north of Camelback and the North Mountains which gives it a decidedly suburban character despite the fact that the majority of its inhabitants live in the Phoenix city limits. Most people here commute to 4th and the 5th, though there is a substantial central business district in the 3rd’s new portion of Scottsdale–which I decided to include because there’s a division between the more middle-class southern and downtown Scottsdale and the disgustingly wealthy northern Scottsdale. In any event, Shadegg will fit here like a glove, as this district is safely Republican.

John McCain won 59% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	115630	174838	4313	294781		95226	151454	1231	247911

AZ-04 (Grey): Rep. Ed Pastor, D+15.4

-Southern Phoenix, Guadalupe

71% Hispanic, 17% White, 8% Black

The southern Phoenix based 4th district doesn’t change that much, just shrinking because of population growth and becoming even more Hispanic. There are some upper class subdivisions in the Laveen area, but by in large this is working-class urban district that will continue to be the most Democratic district in Arizona.

Barack Obama won 68% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	62390	27826	1398	91614		43697	24414	482	68593

AZ-05 (Yellow): Rep. Harry Mitchell, D+2.6

-Central Phoenix, Tempe, southern Scottsdale

58% White, 29% Hispanic

As I mentioned above, the fact that there is a big potential for this map to only have two districts out of ten that Obama won when he pulled off a respectable 45% of the vote is kind of a problem. If it took some kind of massive gerrymander to ameliorate that situation then it would be a problem, but I’d argue that this district is just as logical if not more so than the current AZ-05.

Essentially, I tried to create a “creative class” district that is well educated but more culturally liberal than the 3rd on the other side of the mountains. Starting in Tempe (home to ASU and several software companies) it moves up through several middle-class southern Scottsdale neighborhoods and then artsy downtown Scottsdale, then turns West into Phoenix to take in several historic middle-class neighborhoods such as Arcadia and Encanto before turning north again to end at the traditionally working-class but gentrifying Sunnyslope. One thing that occurred to me just as I was writing this up is that ASU’s Downtown Campus is a just a couple miles the south of Encanto area and ASU west is just a couple miles to the northwest of Sunnyslope, so if I were to redraw this map, adding those two campuses into this district would be one of my first priorities.

This would probably be pretty safe for Democrats (though Republicans do definitely have a base here) but the bigger threat to Harry Mitchell might be a primary challenge out of Phoenix and from the left. State Rep. (and de facto future State Sen.) Kyrsten Sinema, who represents much of the Phoenix portion of this district already and is seen as a major rising star in the liberal wing of the state party would probably take a look (incidentally, she’d be the first openly bisexual member of congress).

Barack Obama won 54% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	96261	78728	3469	178458		88501	79006	1231	1687382

AZ-06 (Teal): Rep. Jeff Flake, R+13.5

-Mesa, Apache Junction, northern Gilbert

71% White, 22% Hispanic

The current version of this district has swelled to become the largest in Arizona, so it needed to shed quite a bit of territory. It now takes in the entirety of Mesa (picking up the westside that was shed by the 5th) but loses its portion of Chandler, almost of Gilbert, and all of Queen Creek & the San Tan Valley. Mesa, which has sizable Mormon and retired communities, is starting to become more diverse with a growing Hispanic minority, and may eventually be at the center of a swing district. In the short-term, however, it should continue to be one of the Republican strongholds in the interior West.

John McCain won 60% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	72159	114697	3793	190649		64189	114338	1038	179565
Pinal (part)	8099	12268	257	20624		7633	11114	92	18839
Total	80258	126965	4050	211273		71822	125452	1130	198404

AZ-07 (Cyan): Rep. Raul Grijalva, D+8.9

-Western Tucson, most of Yuma, Nogales

57% Hispanic, 33% White

While from the best information I can gather, this district was not actually mandated by the Justice Department, thus the fact that it was only 50.6% Hispanic in 2000 and was basically reliant on White liberals in Tucson to ensure the election of a Hispanic. However, with Arizona pushing 30% Hispanic, only one district where Hispanics are decidedly in the drivers seat isn’t going to do it, thus making the 7th a little more Hispanic was a major priority. It pulls out of Maricopa County for population reasons (except for that small part on the Tohono O’odahm Rez) and Pinal County because, despite what DRA says, that region has swelled somewhere north 40K and is decidedly suburban, making the prospect that it is still majority Hispanic highly unlikely. Taking suburban Yuma out of the district goes a long way, and allows this district to become more Hispanic while only making minor alterations to the Tucson area. It should continue to be safely Democratic, especially if Republicans keep nominating that White supremacist.

Barack Obama won 59% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	17	12	0	29		40	4	0	44
Pima (part)	73583	42308	1505	117396		70118	38064	721	108903
Pinal (part)	115	34	0	149		174	34	0	208
Santa Cruz (part)	7259	3222	65	10546		5637	3397	50	9084
Yuma (part)	16066	19428	334	35828		13762	18259	173	32194
Total	97040	65004	1904	163948		89731	59758	944	150433

AZ-08 (Pink): Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, R+4.3

-Eastern Tucson, Casas Adobes, Catalina Foothills

74% White, 17% Hispanic

Certainly the district that changes the least as far as presidential performance, though I did try to make it more urban-suburban based and more military-centric by dropping rural Cochise County to the 1st. This should be another district that Obama wins in 2012 if he manages to carry the state.

John McCain won 52% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Cochise (part)	8409	15365	397	24171		7242	14460	128	21830
Pima (part)	132618	141801	3108	277527		122890	132694	1387	256971
Pinal (part)	2660	3953	40	6653		2014	3221	16	5251
Santa Cruz (part)	1424	1296	36	2756		1272	1271	30	2573
Total	145111	162415	3581	311107		133418	151646	1561	286625

AZ-09 (Green): NEW, R+14.3

-Peoria, Surprise, Prescott

77% White, 16% Hispanic

The fact that the Republican performance in several districts decreased should balance out the fact that this district will now be the most Republican in Arizona. If AZ-01 is the rural district, this is the medium-sized town district, encompassing most of the Prescott-Prescott Valley area, Bullhead City, Kingman, Lake Havasu City, and suburban Yuma. However, a little more than half of its population lives in the West Valley of Phoenix, as evidenced by the fact that rapidly growing Peoria and Suprise are the two largest cities. The Sun City area rounds out this heavily conservative district’s tilt and contributes to a large retired population along with Mohave County.

This district is pretty much impregnable for us. As I mentioned, Trent Franks would probably seriously consider running out here. If not, potential new representatives include current SOS and former State Senate President Ken Bennett, current State Senate President Bob Burns (though he’d be 74 on election day 2012, so that might not be realistic), State Sens. Steve Pierce and Jack Harper, though it would probably a five-ring frakus no matter what happens.

John McCain won 62% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Coconino (part)	185	60	2	247		213	61	2	276
La Paz	1929	3509	114	5552		1849	3159	48	5055
Maricopa (part)	67007	109897	2865	179769		47540	77762	525	125827
Mohave	22092	44333	1180	67605		20503	36794	510	57807
Navajo (part)	704	169	5	878		780	161	4	945
Yavapai (part)	19011	33789	756	53556		17036	29952	283	47271
Yuma (part)	2493	5149	120	7762		2270	3925	34	6229
Total	113421	196906	5042	315369		90191	151813	1406	243410

AZ-10 (Indigo): NEW, R+10.1

-Chandler, most of Gilbert, Ahwatukee Foothills

62% White, 25% Hispanic

The second new district pairs the rapid growth in southeastern Maricopa County with the rapid growth in western Pinal County to create a district that had barely more than 100K residents 25 years ago. Their remains some agriculture (mainly in Pinal County) and some Native Americans (the awkward reentry of the district into Maricopa County west of the 4th district is so that it can take in the rest of the Gila River Indian Reservation; Indian Reservations cannot and will not be broken up, btw, so please don’t suggest that in your comments), but it’s identity is first and foremost suburban. The sizable Hispanic community and swing areas like Ahwatukee could help make this district competitive, but any Democratic candidate will have to struggle to not be absolutely demolished in Gilbert and the San Tan Valley.

Politically, it leans pretty strongly Republican and was drawn to elect one, but there is some potential that it could end up in a Democrat’s hands. Potential Republican candidates include State Senate President pro tempore Thayer Verschoor and State House Majority Leader John McCormish. Democratic State Senate Assistant Minority Leader Rebecca Rios, who represents the Pinal County portion of the district and will be term limited in 2012 anyway, may be able to make this a horse race.

John McCain won 57% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	93790	126879	3301	223970		71363	108729	885	180976
Pinal (part)	29052	38652	795	68499		13011	18728	166	31905
Total	122842	165531	4096	292469		84374	127456	1051	212881

So, what are you doing to celebrate Independence Day?

P.S. A quick reminder that you can follow SSP on Twitter. Also, if you want to receive a daily email of SSP posts, you can sign up using this link.

Blurb at the top of CNN’s website right now:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is expected to announce that she will not seek a second term, a GOP source close to Palin says.

This is not a surprise – many folks (including myself) have been speculating about this possibility for a long while. What it means is that we’ll certainly have some damn good entertainment on the GOP presidential campaign trail – a welcome relief, given Mark Sanford’s implosion.

As for more Swing State-y matters, we now have to wonder if Dem Ethan Berkowitz will get into the race. The CQ piece cited in the linked post said that Berkowitz was “gearing up for another statewide race – against Gov. Sarah Palin, if she chooses to run for re-election.” So this may mean he won’t take the leap. And that would make sense – our best shot at this seat meant being able to run against the extremely damaged Palin. Now we have a Babs Cubin/John Doolittle/Duke Cunningham-type situation, where the toxic goods have vamoosed too soon.

The Swing State Project currently rates this as a Race to Watch. But if Dems fail to recruit a legitimate candidate, this race will likely drop off our watch list.

WHOA UPDATE (and edit to title): Just flipped on CNN, and they are saying that their affiliates in Alaska are saying Palin is going to resign in a month! WHOA!

LOCAL UPDATE: KTUU in Alaska is indeed confirming that she’ll leave office in a month. WTF? Scandal? Exhaustion? This would seem to irreparably damage her for a presidential run, no?

WHAT NOW? UPDATE: So according to the AK constitution:

If the governor-elect dies, resigns, or is disqualified, the lieutenant governor elected with him shall succeed to the office of governor for the full term.

The current LG is Sean Parnell, who super-narrowly lost in a primary last year against corrupt Rep. Don Young. Earlier in the year, Parnell talked up a possible rematch, but more recently seemed to back off those plans. Did he know something like this was coming?

ANOTHER UPDATE: Jed at Daily Kos is liveblogging her press conference. Even though any normal person would regard resigning mid-term as the end of one’s political career, Sarah Palin is anything but normal. She just said, “America is looking north to the future.” That lunatic actually thinks she’s running for president. Wow.

I CAN’T GET ENOUGH UPDATE: During her presser, Palin apprently said that the “decision has been in the works for a while.” So presumably Parnell was in the know here. Will Don Young live to ride another day?

RaceTracker: AK-Gov