Month: July 2010

SurveyUSA (7/9-11, likely voters, no trend lines):

Tarryl Clark (D): 39

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 48

Bob Anderson (IP): 6

Aubrey Immelman (I): 2

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.2%)

This is the first public poll we’ve seen from this race since December, when Public Policy Polling gave Bachmann a significantly wider 55-37 lead. One of the most striking findings of the poll — other than the recurring SUSA curiosity of an extremely GOP-friendly electorate of younger voters — is the monstrous gender gap. Males favor Bachmann by a 56-31 margin, while women support Clark by a narrower 47-39 spread.

Overall, these aren’t bad numbers for a district as red as this one in such a craptacular environment, but I still have enormous difficulty selling any kind of optimism for a race that stung us twice in much friendlier cycles.

• CO-Sen: Isn’t this the second time this has happened in about a month? Tom Tancredo says something ridiculous, Republican candidate with an eye on the general repudiates the statement, then walks back the repudiation once he realizes that the teabaggers’ widdle feewings might get hurt. This time it was Ken Buck (on whose behalf Tancredo called Barack Obama the “greatest threat to the United States today” last week); he might have been helped along in his flip-flopping after Jane Norton, who’s losing the primary because Buck outflanked her on the right, started going on about how she agreed with Tancredo,.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio’s having a good day so far: he rolled out a ridiculously big fundraising number for the second quarter: $4.5 million raised. No mention of his CoH, though. (All eyes turn to Charlie Crist, though, for his first report after switching to an indie bid, to see whether that shrank or expanded his pool of donors.) Rubio’s second bit of good news is an endorsement from Crist’s former right-hand-man, temporary Sen. George LeMieux. (Since LeMieux reportedly has designs on Bill Nelson’s seat, and he seems to prefer running as a Republican and not on the Crist For Florida line, what else is he going to do, though?)

• NH-Sen: I know, I know, straw poll, terrible gauge of broad public support, take with salt, bla bla bla. Still, here’s a barometer of where the hardcore Live Free or Die crowd currently stands: Ovide Lamontagne dominated the straw poll at the Taxpayer Reunion Picnic, an annual gathering of those who were teabagging long before it was cool. He won 109 to 74 over Jim Bender, a rich guy who’s going the crazy viral ad route. Establishment candidate Kelly Ayotte and moderate outsider Bill Binnie were at 23 and 10.

• WA-Sen: Clint Didier, apparently aware of the stink lines of rank hypocrisy radiating off him, said that he’s swearing off farm subsidies in the future. (Seeing as how it made him look like the worst possible caricature of the teabaggers’ mantra of “I hate the gub’ment! Except when it’s giving me money for doing nothing!”) Apparently that was enough absolution for Rep. Ron Paul‘s satisfaction, as he threw his backing behind Didier this weekend.

• WV-Sen: Rep. Shelly Capito Moore is at least honest about being scared about running for Senate (almost certainly against highly popular Gov. Joe Manchin), although she isn’t couching it in terms of being afraid of Manchin per se, instead saying “I’m afraid to lose momentum that I think I provide for the state.” At any rate, she says she’ll make her (seeming unlikely) decision whether to run in the next few days, probably coinciding with the clarification on the election’s when and how, to be decided in a July 15 legislative special session.

• AZ-Gov: Ain’t that a kick in the head? State Treasurer Dean Martin, who was regarded as something of a frontrunner when he jumped into the GOP primary earlier this year, is suspending his campaign, ostensibly because he didn’t want to be a distraction to Gov. Jan Brewer as she fights lawsuits over SB 1070. In reality, Martin never really caught fire, first when rich self-funder Owen Buz Mills grabbed the not-Brewer mantle and then, mostly, when Brewer suddenly became belle of the right-wing ball when she signed SB 1070.

• FL-Gov: Bill McCollum apparently didn’t want to be touting his fundraising numbers, but they’re out anyway, thanks to a court filing pertaining to Rick Scott’s challenge to the state public financing system. At any rate, McCollum’s sitting on a paltry $800K in cash, a mere blip compared to what Scott can pull out of his own wallet. Of course, Scott could still pull defeat out of the jaws of victory, by antagonizing pretty much the entire RPOF by trying to hang ex-state party chair Jim Greer around McCollum’s neck… and by staking his pro-life credentials on a family who are loudly preferring that he shut up about them.

• GA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage, which offered its poll of the GOP primary last week, has a matching Dem poll today. The question for Dems isn’t whether Roy Barnes gets the most votes but whether he avoids a runoff, and they seem to err on the side of “no runoff:” Barnes is at 59, with Thurbert Baker at 15, and Dubose Porter and David Poythress both at 2, behind someone by the name of Bill Bolton (at 3). Meanwhile, on the GOP side, it seemed like something of an oversight that this endorsement hadn’t happened before, but Sarah Palin finally added Karen Handel to the ever-growing list of Mama Grizzlies. UPDATE: Thurbert Baker just got a top-tier endorsement, from Bill Clinton. It may be too late for that to matter much, though, because at this point Baker needs to not only win all the undecideds but peel away a significant number of Barnes voters. (H/t TheUnknown285.)

• MI-Gov: Motor City endorsements aplenty in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Michigan: Andy Dillon got the backing of former Detroit mayor Dennis Archer, who many observers thought would have made the strongest candidate had he run. Virg Bernero got endorsements from Detroit’s two House members, John Conyers and Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick.

• MN-Gov: Republican nominee Tom Emmer seems to have dug a large hole for himself with his proposal to start including tips toward restaurant servers’ minimum wage requirement (which has the effect of slashing their hourly base pay); he’s planning on doing a “listening tour” with servers as atonement. Also adding to Emmer’s worries is blowback from his Sarah Palin endorsement, which helped him upset Marty Seifert at the GOP convention but is now already being used as a cudgel in general election advertising (courtesy of Matt Entenza). Meanwhile, Entenza’s Democratic rival Margaret Anderson Kelliher is running her first TV spot; the total buy is for only about $50K, though.

• NE-Gov: Democrats in Nebraska seem to be actively considering just punting the ball, rather than trying to find a replacement candidate for nominee Mark Lakers. On the plus side, that would free up local Democratic money for other ventures (like the race in NE-02), in what was destined to be a thorough loss even with Lakers in the race. On the other hand, Tom White’s challenge to Lee Terry would probably benefit from having, well, something at the top of the ballot.

• PA-Gov: If Tom Corbett is trying to position himself as a moderate for the general election, well, this isn’t the way. He’s publicly using the Sharron Angle line of argumentation that unemployment benefits cause more unemployment, because, naturally, people would rather live on their meager checks than go out and get one of those many abundant jobs that are out there. The ads write themselves… presuming the Democrats ever get around to actually writing them.

• TN-Gov: A mysterious 527 (is there any other kind?) has emerged to pour money into the Tennessee GOP primary. There’s no word on who’s the power behind the throne for Tennesseans for a Better Tomorrow, but they’ll be advertising on behalf of Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, who’s back in third in the polls and needs a surrogate to do the dirty work of negative advertising against Bill Haslam.

• AZ-03: Jon Hulburd’s fundraising (and self-funding ability) is the main thing keeping this red-district open seat race at least somewhat on the map for the Dems; he’s announcing $250K raised last quarter. (No word on CoH.)

• CO-04: Freshman Rep. Betsy Markey had a strong quarter, raising $530K and sitting on $1.5 million CoH. In this Republican-leaning district, she’ll need every penny of it to get through this year.

• KS-04: Democratic State Rep. Raj Goyle, whose fundraising skills have put this dark-red open seat onto the map, is out with an introductory TV spot. Seems a little earlier for that, doesn’t it? We’d guess that he’s concerned about the primary (remember that there was a SurveyUSA poll a few weeks back that showed him not that far ahead of Some Dude with, well, a more ‘Merican sounding name) and not wanting to go the route of historical footnote Vic Rawl.

• MO-08: Tommy Sowers, if nothing else, is showing a lot of hustle in his long-shot bid against GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson in this dark-red rural district. He says he’s passed the $1 million mark for funds raised over the total cycle (nothing specific on 2Q or CoH, though).

• NJ-03: Democratic freshman Rep. John Adler seems to be putting some fundraising distance between himself and Jon Runyan. Adler raised $415K in 2Q to break the $2 million mark for CoH, while Runyan has about $500K in cash.

• NY-01: Randy Altschuler’s got a whole lotta cash: he’s reporting $1.8 million CoH. A lot of that is coming right of the Altschuler family piggy bank, though. He raised a decent $257K last quarter, but loaned himself another $500K on top of that.

• OH-16: Yikes! GOP nominee Jim Renacci must have some deep-pocketed connections from the high-stakes world of Arena Football, because he’s reporting $725K raised last quarter. (No word on CoH.)

• PA-04: This is kind of a small haul to be touting (touting may not be the right word, actually, when even your own campaign adviser calls it “not half bad”), but maybe it’s a good amount when you weren’t even supposed to have won the primary in the first place. Keith Rothfus, who blasted establishment fave Mary Beth Buchanan in the GOP primary, says he has $200K CoH (up from $157K in his pre-primary report … no word on what he actually raised).

• VA-05: Finally, here’s the delicious cherry on top of the shit sundae of fundraising reports: Tom Perriello announces that he raised $660K last quarter, giving him $1.7 million CoH. No word yet from Robert Hurt, but with $121K on hand in his May 19 pre-primary report, I can imagine it’s not in Perriello’s ballpark. The Richmond Times-Dispatch has an interesting compare-and-contrast enterprise in how Perriello and fellow vulnerable freshman Dem Glenn Nye are approaching their re-elections (Perriello emphasizing his base, Nye emphasizing his independence); clearly, based on these numbers, playing to the base can pay off, at least at the bank.

• CA-LG (pdf): We’re still sweeping up from that last installment of the Field Poll. In the Lt. Governor’s race, there’s surprisingly good news for Dems, with Gavin Newsom looking solid against appointed GOPer Abel Maldonado, leading 43-34. The Attorney General results aren’t that surprising: Republican Los Angeles Co. DA Steve Cooley has a narrow edge over SF DA Kamala Harris, 37-34.

• Illinois: It looks like we’ll never have another Scott Lee Cohen scenario again (or for that matter, probably not even another Jason Plummer scenario). Pat Quinn signed into law new legislation requiring, from now on, that Governor and Lt. Governor tickets are joined together before the primary, not after.

• Rasmussen:

• IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth (D) 30%, Dan Coats (R) 51%

• MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 46%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 47%

With Texas looking to gain four seats after the Census, I decided to gerrymander Texas to protect the current twenty Republican representatives. In my plan, I try to create a realistic-looking map and I try to follow the VRA. In my opinion, there will need to be at least two, maybe three new VRA-protected Hispanic-majority seats. My plan draws two, but they’re not slam-dunks for Democrats, unless Arizona’s “papers, please” law mobilizes Hispanics to actually, well, vote.  Republicans will pick up two of the new seats for sure, and probably the third.

With the GOP likely in control of the House, definitely the Senate, a quite possibly the governor’s mansion, this is what I think the trifecta might do.

In the end, only two white Democrats should survive this plan, unless Gene Green gets primaried by an ambitious Hispanic politician. Also, Ciro Rodriguez-who doesn’t even live there in the 23rd anymore-gets a pretty tough district.

In the end, this plan should result in a 26-10 Republican majority, while substantially protecting all Republican incumbents. At the end of the decade, though, this could change. The ideal population numbers are all within a 1000, meaning the districts can change a little to get to the ideal number, 0. There is 3,963 people who I can’t find on the map; they voted 62-38 for McCain.

After reading the write up, scroll down to see my summary at the end.

Please enjoy!

P.S. I worked forever on this, so I will go crazy if I see some b.s. diary go up and bump it down. Y’all know what I’m talking about.

METROPLEX

TX-3 PURPLE

Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R-Plano)

Counties: Collin

Cities of Note: Plano, Allen, Frisco, Wylie, McKinney

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 42-57

White: 76 Black: 5 Hispanic: 10 Asian: 9 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The district is completely based in Collin County, which has grown tremendously. Johnson is safe and will be succeeded by a conservative Republican if he retires.

TX-5 YELLOW

Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)

Counties: Anderson, Henderson, Wood, Rains, Cherokee (Part), Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part), Kaufman (Part)

Cities of Note: Arlington, Mansfield, Dallas, Mesquite

Obama: 41%

McCain: 58%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 36-63

White: 71 Black: 13 Hispanic: 13 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-12 LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth)

Counties: Tarrant (Part), Wise (Part), Parker (Part)

Cities of Note: Fort Worth

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 36-63

White: 67 Black: 5 Hispanic: 23 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The district gets smaller, but Granger should continue to be comfortable here.

TX-17 DARK BLUE

Incumbent: VACANT

Counties: Hood, Somerville, Johnson, Hill, Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Arlington

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 32-67

White: 77 Black: 7 Hispanic: 12 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican if Edwards runs; Safe Republican otherwise

Chet Edwards must be really annoying for Republicans. I drew a new Arlington-based district, with some of Edwards’ old exurban territory. Like I wrote, part of the DeLaymander’s success was that Democratic incumbents had to run in areas unfamiliar to them. As talented as he is, I don’t see Edwards winning in reflexively Republican urban areas in Tarrant County. Plus, Waco isn’t even in the district, so he’d have to move. This might finally dislodge him.

TX-24 DARK PURPLE

Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)

Counties: Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part), Denton (Part)

Cities of Note: Coppell, Irving, Dallas

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 44-55

White: 65 Black: 7 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-26 GRAY

Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R-Lewisville)

Counties: Denton (Part), Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Denton, Lewisville, Frisco

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 80 Black: 5 Hispanic: 11 Asian: 4 Native American:  0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-30 DALLAS ORANGY COLOR

Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)

Counties: Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Dallas, Fort Worth

Obama: 83%

McCain: 17%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 82-18

White: 22 Black: 52 Hispanic: 22 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district now goes into Tarrant to take in black-majority precincts to create a new VRA-protected black-majority seat in the Metroplex.

TX-32 ORANGE

Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)

Counties: Rockwall, Dallas (Part)

Cities of Note: Dallas, Garland, Richardson, Rockwall

Obama: 40%

McCain: 58%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 71 Black: 7 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 6 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Adding Rockwall County makes Sessions safer.

TX-33 DARKISH BLUE (Entirely in Dallas)

Incumbent: VACANT SEAT

Counties: Dallas

Cities of Note: Dallas

Obama: 67%

McCain: 32%

White: 25 Black: 17 Hispanic: 53 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

A new Dallas-based VRA-protected Hispanic seat.

HOUSTON AREA

TX-2 GREEN

Incumbent: Ted Poe (R-Humble)

Counties: Harris, Liberty, Orange, Jasper, Orange, Jefferson (Part)

Cities of Note: Humble, Baytown, Beaumont

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 40-60

White: 68 Black: 15 Hispanic: 13 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Poe gets safer by subtracting a chunk of Beaumont and adding Jasper, Newtown, and Orange Counties. The Harris part of the district remains very conservative, so Poe should have no problems here until 2020 redistricting-or a sooner redistricting, if history is a guide.

TX-7 LIGHT GRAY

Incumbent:  VACANT

Counties: Fayette, Harris (Part), Colorado (Part), Fort Bend (Part), Lavaca (Part)

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 40%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 70 Black: 8 Hispanic: 14 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

By splitting remaining territory in Harris, one can make two pretty-safe urban Republican seats based in Houston. A lot of this is Culberson’s old district, but I think he’d run in the new 36th, which contains his home and is one point more Republican. The district might be competitive eventually, but for now it’s safely Republican.

TX-8 LIGHTISH BLUE

Incumbent: Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)

Counties: Hardin, Tyler, Polk, San Jacinto, Walker, Grimes, Madison, Leon, Houston, Cherokee, Montgomery (Part), Jefferson (Part)

Cities of Note: Beaumont, Huntsville

Obama: 31%

McCain: 68%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 26-74

White: 75 Black: 13 Hispanic: 9 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

When the district was drawn in the DeLaymander, it was designed to unseat any East Texas Democrats. Now that it has done so, I can stop wasting so many Republican votes. I split Brady’s base in Montgomery, and I added some Democratic precincts in Beaumont. Still, it’s insanely Republican, and Montgomery should continue to grow, making it even more so.

TX-9 TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Al Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris (Part), Fort Bend (Part)

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 76%

McCain: 23%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 77-23

White: 17 Black: 37 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 12 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-14 ARMY GREEN

Incumbent: Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson)

Counties: Chambers, Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun, Brazoria (Part), Harris (Part), Galveston (Part)

Cities of Note: Galveston, Baytown, Texas City, League City, Freeport

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 33-66

White: 59 Black: 11 Hispanic: 27 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

An urban-suburban-exurban leftovers district, Paul and his nutty views should be safe here.

TX-18 HOUSTON YELLOW

Incumbent: Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 79%

McCain: 20%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 22-77

White: 18 Black: 46 Hispanic: 31 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The 18th is another safe black-plurality district in Houston.

TX-22 BROWN

Incumbent: Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)

Counties: Harris (Part), Fort Bend (Part), Brazoria (Part), Galveston (Part)

Cities of Note: Sugar Land, Pearland, Pasadena

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 63 Black: 8 Hispanic: 18 Asian: 11 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The old DeLay seat, it gets smaller, but is still safe for Olson, who beat a great candidate in Lampson in 2008.

TX-29 GREENISH GRAY

Incumbent: Gene Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 66%

McCain: 33%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 62-38

White: 18 Black: 11 Hispanic: 68 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-36 YELLOWY ORANGE

Incumbent: John Culberson (R-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 39

McCain: 60

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58 (7th District)

White: 64 Black: 8 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

See TX-7 for analysis.

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO

TX-10 PINK

Incumbent: Michael McCaul (R-Austin)

Counties: Lee, Burleson, Washington, Austin, Waller, Travis (Part), Montgomery (Part), Harris (Part)

Cities of Note: Austin, Conroe

Obama: 36%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 44-54

White: 72 Black: 9 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Seeing how Montgomery County has grown tremendously since 2000, I split it up into two districts to help McCaul. The district loses some precincts in Austin and Harris County. If I were a Republican (I’m not), I’d feel pretty good about McCaul until 2020.

TX-20 BEIGE

Incumbent: Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio)

Counties: Bexar

Cities of Note: San Antonio

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 64-36

White: 14 Black: 7 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district gets more Hispanic and more Democratic. Gonzalez should be, and will be, fine.

TX-21 DARK RED

Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)

Counties: Kendall, Comal, Hays (Part), Travis (Part), Bexar (Part)

Cities of Note: San Antonio, Austin

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 74 Black: 3 Hispanic: 19 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Smith is entrenched and should be fine here. I’d be concerned about Travis County’s booming population down the road, but for now the Travis part is swingy or leans Republican. Safe.

TX-25 PINKISH RED

Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)

Counties: Travis

Cities of Note: Austin

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 59-40

White: 49 Black: 11 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

Now entirely in Austin, Doggett is safe as can be.

TX-28 LIGHT URPLE

Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)

Counties: La Salle, Frio, Atascosa, Webb (Part), Bexar (Part), Wilson (Part), Guadalupe (Part), Caldwell (Part), Bastrop (Part)

Cities of Note: Laredo, San Antonio, San Marcos, Bastrop

Obama: 53%

McCain: 46%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 56-44

White: 36 Black: 4 Hispanic: 57 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district changes a lot. It’s a lot more San Antonio heavy, and Cuellar’s home might not be even in the district. Still, it should elect a Hispanic Democrat,

TX-35 PURPLE

Incumbent: Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio)

Counties: Mitchell, Nolan, Sterling, Coke, Runnels, Coleman, Concho, Schleicher, Menard, Sutton, Kimble, Edwards, Real, Kerr, Bandera, Bexar (Part), Guadalupe (Part), Caldwell (Part), Brown (Part)

Cities of Note: San Antonio, Seguin

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

White: 58 Black: 7 Hispanic: 31 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

A new district in the San Antonio area, I combined a strip of San Antonio with Republican-leaning suburbs and parts of rural West Texas. Should be safe, unless Hispanics start voting. Rodriguez lives in the district I think.

FAJITA STRIPS

TX-15 ORANGE

Incumbent: Ruben Hinjosa (D-Mercedes)

Counties: Refugio, Goliad, Bee, Aransas, Jim Wells, Brooks, Hidalgo (Part), Cameron (Part), San Patricio (Part)

Cities of Note: McAllen, Harlingen

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 60-40

White: 17 Black: 1 Hispanic: 81 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

Probably now the most Hispanic district in the nation, this would pass VRA muster because there is a new Hispanic district that borders it, the 34th District. McAllen based, it’s pretty similar to today’s 15th district. The new 15th should get incredibly more Democratic over the next decade if trends continue, especially if McAllen continues to grow.

TX-27 BLUEISH GREEN

Incumbent: Solomon Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi)

Counties: Nueces, Kleberg, Kenedy, Willacy, Cameron

Cities of Note: Brownsville, Corpus Christi

Obama: 53%

McCain: 46%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 27 Black: 2 Hispanic: 69 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-34 LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent:

Counties: Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Duval, McMullen, Live Oak, Karnes, Gonzales, DeWitt, Victoria, Hidalgo (Part), Wilson (Part) Lavaca (Part), Colorado (Part), Wharton (Part), Fort Bend (Part)

Cities of Note: McAllen, Rosenberg, Victoria

Obama: 49%

McCain: 50%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 27 Black: 3 Hispanic: 69 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Tossup

A newly-created McAllen-based district, it’s swingy territory. I think it should elect a conservative Hispanic Democrat, but it has a R-leaning bent and should probably would, at first, elect a Republican Hispanic.

EVERYTHING ELSE

TX-16 GREEN

Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)

Counties: El Paso (Part)

Cities of Note: El Paso

Obama: 65%

McCain: 34%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 66-33

White: 18 Black: 3 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

No difference really, but it gets smaller. Safe Democratic.

TX-1 DARK BLUE

Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)

Counties: Smith, Upshur, Gregg, Harrison, Nacogdoches, Shelby, Panola, Angelina, San Augustin, Sabine, Marion (Part)

Cities of Note: Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, Marshall

Obama: 30%

McCain: 69%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 70 Black: 19 Hispanic: 9 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Not much has changed. It loses a little land due to population growth. East Texas should keep electing Republicans. Gohmert, as crazy as he is, is safe.

TX-4 RED

Incumbent:  VACANT

Counties: Fannin, Lamar, Red River, Bowie, Cass, Morris, Camp, Titus, Hopkins, Delta, Hunt, Marion (Part), Kaufman (Part), Collin (Part), Dallas (Part)

Cities of Note: Paris, Dallas, Mesquite

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 73 Black: 14 Hispanic: 10 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

It’s pretty much Ralph Hall’s district, but I couldn’t justify keep Rockwall County in the district; Sessions needed to be made safer. Hall is getting up there in age, and he survived a good teabagging this year in the primary. Anyway, he could move here or another very conservative Republican could run here.

TX-6 DARK TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Joe Barton (R-Ennis)

Counties: Ellis, Navarro, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Robertson, Brazos, Bell (Part), Milam (Part)

Cities of Note: Ennis, Bryan, Temple, Killeen

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 40-60

White: 65 Black: 15 Hispanic: 16 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

I make no apologies (heh) to Barton for taking out Arlington, as he gets an exurban and pretty safe new district. However, Edwards might consider taking a shot at him, as Temple and Bryan are now in the district. Still, I would feel good about Barton’s chances.

TX-19  LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock), Chet Edwards (D-Waco)

Counties: Lubbock, Crosby, Motley, Dickens, King, Stonewall, Haskell, Throckmorton, Young, Erath, Comanche, Bosque, McLennan, Hamilton (Part), Palo Pinto (Part), Hamilton (Part), Bell (Part)

Cities of Note: Lubbock, Waco

Obama: 33%

McCain: 66%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 27-72

White: 66 Black: 10 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Leans Republican

This district will be a Lubbock vs. Waco district, with a spaghetti strange of rural West Texas in between. Edwards would have to get acquainted with a new district in inhospitable West Texas. Edge to “It’s a Baby Killer.”

TX-13 BEIGE

Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)

Counties: A lot

Cities of Note: Wichita Falls, Amarillo, Denison

Obama:

McCain:

Old District (Obama-McCain): 23-76

White: Black: Hispanic: Asian: Native American: Other:

Projected:

TX-11 LIGHT ARMY GREEN

Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R-Midland)

Counties: A lot

Cities of Note: Midland, Abilene, Amarillo

Obama: 22

McCain: 77

Old District (Obama-McCain): 24-75

White: Black: Hispanic: Asian: Native American: Other:

Projected: Safe Republican

I think this becomes the safest GOP seat in the country…

TX-23 LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Counties: Medina, Uvalde, Dimmit, Zavala, Maverick, Kinney, Val Verde, Terrell, Brewster, Presidio, Jeff Davis, Culberson, Hudspeth, Reeves, Loving, Winkler, Ector, Howard, Glasscock, Ward, Crane, Upton, Reagan, Tom Green, Irion, Crockett, El Paso (Part), Webb (Part), Andrews (Part)

Cities of Note: El Paso, Laredo, San Angelo, Odessa

Obama: 42%

McCain: 57%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 36 Black: 3 Hispanic: 60 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

A VRA-protected seat, it’s more Hispanic than the current 23rd. It’s way more Republican now, a net of 18 points more. Ciro Rodriguez doesn’t live here anymore, and the district is based in three different population centers: San Angelo, Odessa, and Northern Laredo.  A Blue Dog Hispanic could win here eventually, as Hispanics in the area might, you know, vote eventually. This district is likely going to go to an Hispanic Republican, but down the road, the huge 23rd might flip.

TX-31 LIGHT MUSTARD YELLOW

Incumbent: John Carter (R-Round Rock)

Counties: Williamson, Burnett, Blanco, Gillespie, Llano, Mason, San Saba, McCulloch, Mills, Lampasas, Coryell, Hamilton (Part), Hamilton (Part), Milam (Part)

Cities of Note: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown

Obama: 36%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-57

White: 75 Black: 6 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Again, this redistricting took countless hours. I kinda dared myself to try it out. I think it turned out pretty well…

Some thoughts: the DeLaymander was absolutely brilliant–in a nefarious sort of way. Just looking at the districts though, it’s almost inevitable that some districts start flipping our way. I think I used West Texas more effectively than it is now. I’ll add more later.

(cross-posted on WMR-pb)

Introduction

With just over three weeks before the August 3 primary, Republican and Democratic campaigns are starting to take a look at who might be coming to the polls. Voter turnout in August tends to be rather apathetic, given that many folks are out of town or find the choices on the ballot to be unappealing. However, the 2010 Republican and Democratic primaries have a host of interesting candidates to choose from, although none as interesting as in the 3rd Congressional District primary. The 3rd Congressional District covers Barry, Ionia, and Kent County (with the exception of Alpine, Sparta, and Tyrone Townships in the northwest corner of Kent County). Add to the 3rd District race the Democratic and Republican primary races for governor and the 29th State Senate seat (Kentwood/Grand Rapids), and the competitive Republican state house races in the 72nd, 73rd, 75th, 77th, and 86th districts, there are reasons to expect higher turnout in 2010.

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3rd District Primary

So how many voters might come to the polls on August 3 for the 3rd District primary? The past four election cycles provide some clues. Overall primary turnout varied from 2000 to 2008, with a record 117,247 voters coming out in 2004 (largely for the zoo millage), to a low of 64,368 voters in 2008. The large number of voters in 2004 hailed overwhelmingly from Kent County, and cast huge numbers of votes in the GOP primary.

Understanding the GOP 3rd District primary in context of November election numbers can be informative. In 2000 173,465 voted for general election vote leader Spencer Abraham while 61,914 cast a ballot in the Republican primary. In 2002 152,731 voted for Ehlers in the general, while 54,132 voted in the primary. In 2004 213,895 voted for Ehlers in the general, 91,241 voted in the primary. In 2006 169,533 voted for Ehlers in the general, 52,756 voted in the primary. In 2008 203,769 voted for Ehlers in November, and 46,150 voted in the primary. Despite the noise about tea party mania, time after time turnout is lower in the gubernatorial election cycle when compared to the presidential cycle two years earlier. GOP primary turnout was 54,132 in 2002, and 52,756 in 2006, and will likely be higher in 2010 given the high-interest races mentioned earlier, but it is not going to get anywhere near the high of 91,241 in 2004. Three weeks before the election, I expect that turnout will maximize at 80,000 for the Republican primary in 2010.

The same sort of analysis applies for the Democratic primary turnout. Democratic turnout has varied significantly over the past five primaries, with 16,705 voters in 2000, 44,629 in 2002, 26,006 in 2004, 27,766 in 2006, and 15,176 in 2008. While there is a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary, and a primary in the 29th State Senate District, turnout will not be as high as in 2002, but probably in between turnout levels set in 2002 and 2006. I would make a guess that no more than 30,000 voters will cast ballots in the Democratic primary.

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3rd District Typology

As important as turnout is, where the voters come from is even more crucial for a campaign in the waning days. With an estimated turnout number in mind, where are the votes coming from? In the 3rd District primaries for both parties from 2000 to 2008 between 80% and 85% of the total vote will come from the Kent County portion of the 3rd District, while about 10% to 15% generally comes from Barry County, and about 6% comes from Ionia County.  Thus, Kent County is where the action is.

However, a more informative way to look at the 3rd District would be to classify the different communities in the district into four distinct types: Rural, Exurban, Inner-Ring Suburbs, and Core City.  Of course, the core city refers to Grand Rapids, which provided an average 19% of the total GOP primary vote over the past four cycles. A large portion of the GOP vote from Grand Rapids comes from the outlying portions of the 3rd Ward Dutch heartland, although there are similar GOP areas on the fringes of the 1st and 2nd Wards. Surrounding Grand Rapids are the inner ring suburbs of Kentwood, Wyoming, Grandville, East Grand Rapids, and Walker. These inner ring suburbs were largely built between 1920 and 1970, and face many of the same demographic and financial pressures facing Grand Rapids. Many of these suburbs have trended Democratic steadily over the past four cycles (especially in Wyoming and Kentwood), although strong bastions of social conservatives (in Grandville, Walker, and Wyoming) and economic conservatives (EGR) still exist. The inner ring suburbs provide 21% of the total GOP vote, giving the Grand Rapids metropolitan core about 40% of the total Republican vote. Over 32% of the GOP primary vote comes from the exurban suburbs, areas that were built largely after 1980 that have large lot sizes and have few of the infrastructure and demographic concerns of the core city and inner ring suburbs. The exurban areas of the 3rd District include Ada, Byron, Cannon, Cascade, Gaines, Grand Rapids Township, and Plainfield Townships. Finally, the rural portions of Kent, Barry, and Ionia Counties provide the final 25% of the GOP electorate.

On the Democratic side the story is quite different. Grand Rapids provides 37% of the total vote, and I suspect that this percentage will be even higher with the 29th State Senate District primary. The inner ring suburbs provide 24%, the exurban communities 19%, and the rural portions of the district 20%.

Conclusion

The suburbs, not the city, will play a key role in the 3rd District GOP primary that in which the three candidates represents different parts of the 3rd District. Heacock represents the core city and the Ehlers-Henry school of Dutch-Calvinism moderation, Hardiman the ideology of social conservativism that dominated the inner ring suburbs such until this past decade, while Amash represents the economic libertarianism that has sprung up rapidly from its slumber in the temple of Hayek and Ayn Rand over the past decade after the disastrous ideological experience of the George W. Bush Administration, and is at home in the exurban communities that have grown rapidly over the past two decades.  The steady decline of the Grand Rapids Republican Party over the past five cycles will hurt Heacock the most (as well as Lori Wiersma in the 29th State Senate District Republican primary), and he’ll be hurt further by the votes that Hardiman will take from conservative African American voters in the core (not that many, but still some). Haridman’s candidacy is hurt in part by Heacock’s, and the limited appeal of his social conservative ideology in the exurban areas of the 3rd District. Amash won election in the 72nd State House District in 2008 because of ample funding and a multicandidate primary. Given that he has both again, as well as unique geographic positioning, Amash has a strong road to victory in the 3rd GOP primary. However, the general election will be another story.

AK-Sen: It’s not every day you see an incumbent agreeing to debate a primary challenger, but Sen. Lisa Murkowski has done just that. She’ll meet Joe Miller for three debates in the middle of August, just before the primary on the 24th.

CT-Sen: This Politico story reminds me of that scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail where, amidst the Black Plague, the peasant exhorts everyone to “Bring out yer dead!” and dump them on his cart. One not-quite victim protests, “But I’m not dead yet!” So, too, the Rob Simmons campaign. A whole bunch of people – including Rob Simmons himself – plan on voting for Simmons in the August 10th primary. But it’s pretty clear that hope indeed seems to be the plan here, since Simmons still isn’t campaigning and seems to just be praying for an unlikely win. At least it’s a better system of governance than strange women lyin’ in ponds distributin’ swords.

FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is pulling the trigger on a special legislative session in which he’ll ask lawmakers to add a constitutional amendment to the November ballot which would allow voters to ban offshore drilling. The Miami Herald notes that Crist didn’t lay any groundwork for this special session with state House leaders, meaning he could potentially get negged here. But even that could redound to Crist’s benefit, as he’d be able to campaign against the legislature’s failure to give the people a voice on this pressing issue.

KY-Sen: It’s like John Galt forgot the fact that his motors still had to be delivered along public roads: Rand Paul is taking heat from local officials on account of his distaste for using federal money for drug treatment programs. Note that we aren’t talking about the “war on drugs” here, but money used to treat addicts – which Paul says should come from local sources. But the people who actually have to deal with the problem say that Paul doesn’t understand how important federal dollars are for these programs. Not really surprising, given Rand Paul Math:

When tax money flows to the nation’s capitol, half stays there, half is wasted and half of it goes to political cronyism, Paul said.

LA-Sen: David Vitter got a somewhat-prominent primary challenger at the very last minute: retired LA Supreme Court Judge Chet Traylor. There’s also at least one other Some Dude in the race. If for some reason Vitter can’t get 50% in the primary – which is not until August 28th – then he’d have to deal with a runoff on October 2nd, barely a month before the general. Also interestingly, Republican state Rep. Ernest Wooton qualified for the race, too – as an independent. This might be a rare bit of good news for Charlie Melancon. (H/t Darth Jeff.)

NV-Sen: At the state GOP convention, Sharron Angle expressed her support for the party’s platform – a wonderfully nutty document, as Jon Ralston points out, that touts its opposition to a “one-world government.” Angle was later seen leaving the convention on a black helicopter. Meanwhile, President Obama just did a fundraiser for Harry Reid late last week, which apparently raised $800K.

SC-Sen: Alvin Greene won’t face any charges regarding the $10,440 filing fee he paid to run for senate, or over whether he misrepresented his finances when he asked for a public defender after being charged with a crime (showing an obscene photo) last fall. It turns out that Greene really did pull together the scratch himself, mostly from his Army exit pay and a hefty tax refund. It’s not how I would have spent my last ten thousand bucks, but to each his own.

SD-Sen: With zero opponents on the ballot – not even a Some Dude independent – John Thune is shuttering his campaign team. While it’s always painful to see a Republican senate seat go completely uncontested like this, I wonder if this might not be for the best in terms of Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s re-election chances. At the very least, it means that Thune won’t be out there stumping on the campaign trail – and won’t provide an attractive top-of-the-ticket draw in November. While it’s probably unprovable, I know a lot of folks here feel that Dick Lugar’s lack of an opponent probably helped us win three house races in Indiana in 2006, a sentiment I tend to share.

WI-Sen: Cute: Zillionaire teabagger Ron Johnson had previously criticized President Obama for pushing BP to set up a fund to pay out claims for damage their oil spill has caused. It turns out that Johnson owns at least $116,000 worth of BP stock. Johnson laughably tried to point out that Wisconsin’s public employee pension fund also invests in BP – and that Russ Feingold is a member of that fund (he was a state legislator before being elected to Congress). Srsly?

WV-Sen: It looks like that statement is no longer operative. On Friday, Gov. Joe Manchin told Politico’s Ben Smith that he would “declare his intentions about a Senate run Monday.” The next day, though, he informed Politico’s Jonathan Martin that he’s going to hold off until two things happen: first, he wants the state legislature (called back for a special session) to clarify the law on special election to replace Sen. Robert Byrd. Second, he wants to name an interim office-holder. Manchin also said that the special session will be held this Thursday at noon. (And in an odd aside, Manchin – who seems all but certain to run for Byrd’s seat – just became head of the National Governors Association.)

AL-Gov: This is probably too late to help much, but term-limited Gov. Bob Riley is endorsing former college chancellor Bradley Byrne in tomorrow’s runoff against state Rep. Robert Bentley. Still, Bentley seems to be in the better position. Despite being something of a dark horse in the first round, Bentley has apparently done a good job of consolidating conservatives, and internal polling has generally showed him in the lead.

AL-02: It’s not like we can love Bobby Bright – but we probably can credit him with running a good campaign. Republican Martha Roby is trying to paint herself as a champion against illegal immigration, but as Politico points out, in past battles on the subject, Bright took a harder line than Roby did. As Alex Isenstadt says, “It’s the newest iteration of a recurring challenge for Roby’s campaign: How do you run to the right of a Democrat who’s been squarely on the conservative end of his party since even before he was elected?” Roby still has a runoff fight tomorrow with Rick “The Barber” Barber.

CA-11: David Harmer, running against Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney, pulled in more than $400K last quarter.

FL-25: Marili Cancio, running against establishment favorite David Rivera in the GOP primary, accused him of “repeat domestic violence” on her Facebook page. There have been some rumors circulating about a potential story here (you can Google for more).

LA-02: State Sen. Karen Carter Peterson, who lost a runoff to then-Rep. Bill Jefferson in 2006, will not seek to challenge Rep. Joe Cao. This leaves state Reps. Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta as Cao’s most likely opponents. I’m actually a bit surprised that more big names didn’t get into the race, given how tempting a target Cao seems to be.

MI-13: The Detroit Free Press takes a look at the field challenging Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick in the Dem primary – and points out that Kilpatrick, who only took in 39% in the 2008 primary – doesn’t even have a website. The Freep thinks her two toughest challengers are state Sen. Hansen Clarke and businessman John Broad, while three other Some Dudes round out the field. No one has raised very much, and even Kilpatrick has only $300K on hand. But she may yet benefit from a split field for the second cycle in a row, much like Jean Schmidt.

NM-02: Handsome Harry Teague raised some $320K in Q2 and has $1.2 mil in the bank.

NY-14: Reshma Saujani is claiming that Carolyn Maloney agreed to a debate – but Maloney’s camp says no such thing ever happened. Given Maloney’s consistent stance of refusing to credit Saujani in any way, I have a very hard time believing anything Saujani’s team says about this. And meanwhile, the Washington Post has a pretty puffy profile of Saujani, which if nothing else confirms that she truly is the candidate of the banksters.

NY-18: Self-funding venture capitalist Paul Wasserman has dropped his bid to take on Rep. Nita Lowey in this suburban New York district. Westchester County Republicans are now instead backing 2008 nominee Jim Russell, who has a decidedly less-gaudy campaign warchest ($5,000).

Fundraising: A couple of memos – which were probably designed to be leaked – are now circulating which detail Democratic fears that they will be outspent by conservative interest groups this fall. What I don’t get is why every cycle, people always act like one side outspending the other is some kind of big surprise. New 527s come and go all the time, and it’s not like big Dem or GOP donors all of a sudden forget every January that, hey, there’s an election on! Maybe we should look into this newfangled 527 thing? This stuff is cyclical, and the fact that we’re getting our asses kicked in 2010 is not really news. But if memos like these spook a few rich Dems into opening their wallets, then okay.

Polltopia: Or more like poll dystopia. Media Matters has a distressing piece on McClatchy’s decision to stop polling altogether as part of a budget cutback. (They had previously done about a dozen polls a year with Ipsos.) The piece also details how many, many other news organizations, particularly local newspapers, have also pared down or eliminated their polling in recent years. I know there are far worse problems in the world, but as far as Swingnuts are concerned, this is very, very sad and unfortunate.

Stephanie Schriock, a former campaign manager for Al Franken and Jon Tester (as well as Tester chief-of-staff), became the new head of EMILY’s List earlier this year. Her organization is supporting state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher in the Minnesota gubernatorial race. Kelliher is running against two men for the Democratic nomination, former Sen. Mark Dayton and former state Rep. Matt Entenza. Last Thursday, Schriock tweeted:

It’s nearly MAKction time in #MNGov & I can’t wait to hear the gr8 things that @MAKminnesota will accomplish. Better than those #lazy$ men.

If you click the link, you’ll notice that she since deleted that tweet (which was up for, I believe, at least a day). But there’s no acknowledgement or apology on her Twitter account.

Here is my best guess at where the races in Illinois stand. Let me know what you think.

Senate-

Candidates: Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs Mark Kirk (R)

Current Rating- Toss Up

A few weeks ago, this race was probably at Leans Republican, but after it was revealed Kirk “misremembered” parts of his military and teaching careers and exaggerated some of his claims, Giannoulias has pulled even in the most recent Rasmussen poll. It really is a shame Democrats nominated Giannoulias; if Madigan, Schakowsky, or Gutierrez would have ran they would be beating Kirk by at least high single digits. As with most close Illinois races, this seat will probably hinge on moderate suburban voters in DuPage, Lake, and Will counties, and Giannoulias will have to hope for high turnout in Cook County.

Governor

Candidates: Gov. Pat Quinn (D- Inc) vs Bill Brady (R)

Current Rating- Toss Up/Tilt Republican

Yes Governor Quinn is that unpopular. Bill Brady is a downstate, very conservative Republican who has no business being competitive in a state like Illinois. But Quinn, who took over for disgraced former Governor Blagojevich in 2008, has been forced to deal with a huge budget deficit, and his combination of proposed tax increases and cuts to social services has angered just about everyone in Illinois. Brady will rack up huge margins downstate and in the suburban collar counties, the question will be, does Quinn have enough votes in Cook County to drag him across the finish? Right now it doesn’t look good.

Secretary of State-

Candidates: Jesse White (D-Inc) vs Robert Enriquez (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

White is a popular incumbent who has been the SoS since 1998; Enriquez is largely unknown to the Illinois electorate.

Attorney General-

Candidates: Lisa Madigan (D-Inc) vs Steve Kim (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Madigan is the most popular politician in Illinois who will have no trouble against Kim. Had she ran for Governor or Senate, she would have been the overwhelming favorite.

Comptroller-

Candidates: David Miller (D) vs Judy Baar Topinka (R)

Current Rating- Lean Rep

The Comptroller’s position was vacated when Dan Hynes ran for the Democratic nomination for Governor against Quinn and lost by a few thousand votes. David Miller is a former state rep from the South Side of Chicago. He is a good candidate, but Baar-Topinka’s superior name recognition from her ’06 run for Governor currently makes her a slight favorite.

State Treasurer-

Candidates: Robin Kelly (D) vs Dan Rutherford (R)

Current Rating- Toss Up

This is a hard race to handicap. Kelly faced a tough primary against Justin Oberman and won, but her connection to the unpopular Giannoulias (she served as his chief of staff) was used against her in the primary. Rutherford is a former state senator who has raised over 1 million dollars, and should provide and tough challenge to Kelly.

House Seats

District 1

Candidate: Bobby Rush (D- Inc)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Rush is safe in this heavily African-American district.

District 2

Candidates: Jesse Jackson Jr. (D- Inc) vs Isaac Hayes (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Despite some ethical challenges surrounding Jackson and his connection to Blagojevich and the selling of Obama’s old senate seat, Jackson is safe.

District 3

Candidates: Dan Lipinski (D-Inc) vs Michael Bendas (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Oh how I would love a primary challenge to the Conservadem Lipinski. It was widely suspected Lipinski’s father gave up his seat to the diabetic Lipinski so that he could receive health insurance afforded to members of Congress. Lipinski then voted “no” earlier this year on the second round of health care reform. He is safe in this Southwest Chicago district, though.

District 4

Candidate: Luis Gutierrez (D-Inc)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Gutierrez is one of my favorite members of Congress. He is a true fighter for immigration reform and will likely be in the House for many years to come. I would love to see him as a senator one day.

District 5

Candidates: Mike Quigley (D-Inc) vs David Ratowitz (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Quigley took over for Rahm Emanuel when he left to become Obama’s Chief of Staff. Quigley is safe in this heavy Dem district.

District 6

Candidates: Ben Lowe (D) vs Peter Roskam (R-Inc)

Current Rating- Safe Rep

Roskam barely won this seat in a special election in 2006 over Tammy Duckworth, who now serves in the Department of Veterans Affairs. Democrats thought they had a top-level challenger last year in Jill Morganthaler, but she lost to Roskam by 16 percent. This is a district with an Even Cook PVI, but Lowe has no chance this year.

District 7 (My District!)

Candidates: Danny Davis (D-Inc) vs Mark Weiman (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Davis is safe in this D+35 district.

District 8

Candidates: Melissa Bean (D-Inc) vs Joe Walsh (R)

Current Rating- Safe Dem

Republicans in Illinois had this seat listed as a potential takeover, that is, until they nominated a candidate. Walsh’s campaign imploded in early May as his former campaign manager and other high-level staffers resigned the campaign and sent out press releases questioning Walsh’s finances and his ethics. Bean is a prolific fundraiser and skilled politician who will win reelection.

District 9

Candidates: Jan Schakowsky (D-Inc) vs Joel Pollak (R)

Current Rating: Safe Dem

Schakowsky is safe in this district that gave Barack Obama 72 percent of the vote in 2008.

District 10

Candidates: Dan Seals (D) vs Bob Dold (R)

Current Rating: Toss Up\ Tilt Dem

This district is being vacated as Mark Kirk runs for Senate. Seals ran in ’06 and ’08 but Kirk won both times by around 6 percent. Republicans did the Democrats a big favor here by nominating the more conservative Dold over the more moderate state rep Elizabeth Coulson. Coulson had some high profile endorsements from former Gov. Jim Edgar, most of Illinois’ Republican Congressional delegation, and Judy Baar Topinka, and her defeat in the February primary really helped Seals. Despite the leanings of this cycle, Seal’s high name recognition tilts this race in the Dems favor.

District 11

Candidates: Debbie Halverson (D-Inc) vs Adam Kinzinger (R)

Current Rating: Lean Dem

Republicans nominated a solid candidate in Kinzinger, an Iraq war veteran. However, Halverson has a serious cash advantage (she had 1.3 million in the bank in March) and she should be able to win in what will still be a tough fight.

District 12

Candidates: Jerry Costello (D-Inc) vs Teri Davis Newman (R)

Current Rating: Safe Dem

This is only a D+3 district, but Costello shouldn’t have much trouble holding onto the seat he has held since 1988.

District 13

Candidates: Scott Harper (D) vs Judy Biggert (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

This district voted for Obama by 8 points, but Biggert will most likely win big against ’08 nominee Harper. This district is trending towards the Democrats, but this cycle will be too difficult for Harper to make a serious run at winning.

District 14

Candidates: Bill Foster (D-Inc) vs Randy Hultgren (R)

Current Rating: Toss Up

Bill Foster has held this seat since March of 2008, when he defeated businessman Jim Oberweis in a special election, and then again in the general. This is an R+1 district, and Hultgren was a surprise nominee defeating former Speaker of the House Dennis Haster’s son, Ethan, in the February primary. An internal poll from Hultgren in May showed him beating foster 45-44 percent, but I would guess Foster is probably up by a few points right now.

District 15

Candidates: David Gill (D) vs Tim Johnson (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

Johnson will have no problems in this district that voted for McCain by two points in ’08.

District 16

Candidates: George Gaulrapp (D) vs Donald Manzullo (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

This district is trending Democratic, but Manzullo is entrenched and will easily win reelection.

District 17

Candidates: Phil Hare (D-Inc) vs Bobby Schilling (R)

Current Rating: Likely Dem

Hare has represented this D+3 district since 2006. No polling has been conducted here, but I’m fairly certain Hare will have minimal problems in November.

District 18

Candidates: D.K. Hirner (D) vs Aaron Schock (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

Schock is fairly popular in this district, and he will prevail over the little-known Hirner.

District 19

Candidates: Tim Bagwell (D) vs John Shimkus (R-Inc)

Current Rating: Safe Rep

This is the most Republican district in Illinois, and Shimkus will easily be reelected in Novemeber.

These are my first rankings of any set of seats for the 2010 Congressional elections. The Senate outlook for the Democrats was at first good (this was early 2009.) Then it became poor as fall hit but now the Democrats have a stronger shot in the Senate. Still, the Republicans will pick up seats but the Democrats will still have a majority in the Senate. I am expecting the Republican to pick up 5 seats and they should lose one or two so I am looking at a 3-4 seat gain for the Republican. This is more optimistic than other rankings I have seen but Republican candidates made some mistakes and/or Democrats found the right candidates. Unfortunately, with the economy starting to slump again, the climate will be less favorable to the Democrats. Still, in many races, it is the candidate and not the climate that people are thinking about when they cast their ballots. This at first looks good for the Democrats but it actually helps the Republicans in a few states such as Illinois where Obama and Democrats are popular but Republicans are waging tough races. Enough chatter about Senate races, to the rankings!

1. North Dakota OPEN (D)

Byron Dorgan (D) retired so popular Governor John Hoeven (R) is running. The race was over before it even started.

Ranking: Safe Republican

2. Arkansas Blanche Lincoln (D)

Blanche Lincoln held off the unions (which were never powerful in Arkansas,) the progressives and Bill Halter (D)  when she won the Democratic primary with the help of Bill Clinton. Although Blanche Lincoln came from behind to win, that should not happen this time. Rep John Boozmen (R) from the northwest portion of the state (where Wal Mart was started) is running. All recent polls show Boozmen with a lead about 20 points. Although this race has not been polled for a couple of weeks, all indications clearly show that Boozmen is ahead. Barring a major gaffe or a big burst of luck, Boozmen will be Arkansas’s next Senator.

Ranking: Likely Republican

3. Delaware OPEN Ted Kaufman (D)

The Democrats have had bad luck with this seat. First, Michael Castle (R), Delaware’s popular representative threw his hat in the ring and Beau Biden (D), Joe Biden’s son who was supposed to run jumped ship. Now Democrats nominated New Castle County (Wilmington) executive, Chris Coons (D) to run for Senate. It should be noted that New Castle County is a bellwether so Coons already has an advantage. Michael Castle though is a moderate and is well known throughout the state but if people get fed up with all the incumbents…Still, expect a Michael Castle win.

Ranking: Lean Republican

4. Indiana OPEN Evan Bayh (D)

Bye bye Bayh, after being a popular Governor and Senator, Bayh left open a seat the Democrats should have held (and it aint no lie.) Dan Coats (R) is a former Republican Senator and lobbyist who won the primary with only 40% of the vote. He faces Brad Ellsworth (D), the moderate and popular Congressman from southern Indiana, filled with rural swing voters. Although Ellsworth is moderate and should do well with rural voters, Dan Coats has a strong lead. Ellsworth just got out an effective ad attacking lobbyists (not explicitly mentioning the one running against him.) This is helpful but he also needs to appeal to urban voters who were key to Obama’s winning coalition in 2008.  Ellsworth is a great candidate and he definitely will make it close. Unfortunately, I think due to the Republican lean of the state and the year’s climate, Coats will win by about 5 points.

Ranking: Lean Republican

5. Florida OPEN Mel Martinez (R)

Once Crist jumped into this race, it appeared that he would win easily. Then along came Marco Rubio who started out at 4% but forced Crist to run as an independent. Many pundits including myself believed Crist would take away Republican votes but since they view him as a traitor, he did not steal many. Now he is taking away votes from Meek. I expect Crist to caucus with the Democrats because Crist has suddenly become more Democratic and has strongly advocated against more oil drilling. He participated in a hands across the sands protest against oil drilling too. Most polls show Crist with a slight lead over Rubio and I think that it will be close but Crist will win.

Ranking: Lean Independent

6. Colorado Michael Bennett (D)

Michael Bennett was the former School Superintendent for Colorado and he was appointed by Bill Ritter (D) because Ken Salazar (D) was pulled out to become Secretary of the Interior. Now Republicans Ken Buck and Jane Norton are challenging Bennett. Also, Bennett faces a challenge from Andrew Romanoff (D) who is the former speaker for Colorado’s House. Although the Republicans are not very moderate, Bennett keeps trailing them by a few points and Romanoff trails them too. Ken Buck though, the leader in the primary favors strong cuts to the Department of Education and Norton favors eliminating it. This could come back to haunt them. Most polls show Bennett winning the primary but I do not have a good feeling about this race.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

7. Missouri OPEN Christopher Bond (R)

I was debating whether I should put Ohio here but in the end, I decided that this spot belonged to Missouri. Christopher Bond, one of the dwindling group of reasonable Republicans is now retiring. A not so reasonable Republican, Roy Blunt (R) from southwest Missouri is running to replace Bond. Blunt is the former House Majority Whip under the Bush Administration. The Democrats found a good candidate in Robin Carnahan (D), a member of a strong political family and the Secretary of State. A recent Rasmussen poll shows Blunt with a 5 point lead but Rasmussen is known to be biased toward the right. The latest non Rasmussen poll was in March and it showed Blunt with a 4 point lead. Missouri has a strong rural conservative base but Carnahan has her advantages. She won by 26 points in 2010, losing only 10 counties so she proved she can win rural areas. Also, her family owns a farm so she can highlight her rural roots. This is why I believe that once Carnahan starts campaigning, the race will become very close.

Ranking: Toss Up

8. Ohio OPEN George Voinovich (R)

Voinovich is another reasonable Republican who is retiring. After a bruising primary against Jennifer Brunner (D), Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (D) won. He is facing Rob Portman (R) who is a former congressman and official during the Bush Administration. Every poll since March that is not Rasmussen shows Fisher with a lead although most of the leads are by a few points. Fisher’s main jobs will be to tie Portman to Bush, remind people how bad Bush was (because everyone is blaming Bush’s problems on Obama) and Fisher should highlight how he will create jobs. Also, Fisher needs to step up the fundraising. Also, Portman is from southern Ohio while Fisher is from Northeast Ohio. On election night, you should expect a map similar to 2004 except Fisher may get a few Ohio river counties. I still believe that if one race leads to a recount, it will be this one.

Ranking: Toss Up

9. Illinois OPEN Roland Burris (D)

Really good candidates, especially those whose names are spelled L-I-S-A M-A-D-I-G-A-N decided not to run so we have Alexi Giannoulis (D) who is the State Treasurer. He is young but his family’s bank problems are not. Mark Kirk (R), the moderate Republican from Chicago suburbs and candidate for Senate appeared to have an advantage because of this. He still did not think that gave him a strong enough lead so he decided he could woo voters by bragging about military credentials…he forgot he did not have. Now the race is closer and I think due to the Democratic lean of the state, Giannoulis will win by a couple of points.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

10 (tie) Nevada Harry Reid (D)

The Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid will be facing Sharron Angle (R) a State Senator from Washoe County. Harry Reid is very unpopular in Nevada but neither is Sharron Angle. Her beliefs range from wanting to eliminate social security, the Department of Education, support of Scientology and that Abraham Lincoln lost all his elections but President (he lost only one election is his whole lifetime.) Also, Angle faces another problem because as of last month, Harry Reid has $12 million COH (cash on hand) and Angle has only $138,000. Recent polls show this race close because many people have not heard about Angle just yet. She is trying to hide her opinions though by saying Harry Reid cannot quote them and she seems shocked that people are monitoring everything she says. Angle…welcome to the world of campaigning. Harry Reid is still unpopular but I expect him to win by a few points. The only good tactic Angle has used is behaving callously toward oil spill and rape victims and not having a moment where she does not care about Yucca Mountain. In Nevada, you can vote for “None of these candidates” and I would not be surprised if they won.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

10 (tie). Kentucky OPEN Jim Bunning (R)

Once Bunning realized he had a poor shot at hitting a home run and winning again, he decided to bail out of the race. Rand Paul (R), the son on Ron Paul (R) is now running against Jack Conway (D). At first, it appeared that teabagger Paul would win this race until he revealed how much he hated big government. He thought that government could not prevent businesses from discriminating. Then he flip flopped and believes the U.S needs to use government spending to build a border fence. Conway is a good candidate but Kentucky is too conservative for him and this is not a good year for Democrats.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican.

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? What are yours?

This post was cross posted at http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more election analysis.