Karen Handel: 32
Nathan Deal: 18
John Oxendine: 18
Eric Johnson: 12
Ray McBerry: 3
Jeff Chapman: 3
Otis Putnam: 0
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±2.8%)
Bryan Lentz (D): 26
Pat Meehan (R): 47
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Meehan favorables: 33-12. Lentz favorables: 12-7. A Lentz spokesperson attacked the poll as “skewed” but offered no specific critiques.
Ipsos for Reuters (7/9-11, registered voters, 5/14-18 in parens):
Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (15)
Marco Rubio (R): 28 (27)
Charlie Crist (I): 35 (30)
Undecided: 20 (23)Jeff Greene (D): 18 (NA)
Marco Rubio (R): 29 (NA)
Charlie Crist (I): 34 (NA)
Undecided: 19 (NA)
(MoE: ±4%)
It seems like Charlie Crist successfully threaded the needle with his abandonment of the GOP primary and his move to an independent candidacy; Ipsos finds that he’s leading Marco Rubio and in fact gaining a little ground since their last poll in May. (Worth noting: no pollster other than Rasmussen has given a lead to Rubio since Crist pulled the trigger on his switch.) Democrats Jeff Greene and Kendrick Meek perform at about the same level of futility; either way, it looks like Crist is successfully vacuuming up a big share of center-left votes.
Alex Sink (D): 31 (32)
Bill McCollum (R): 30 (34)
Bud Chiles (I): 12 (NA)
Undecided: 27 (26)Alex Sink (D): 31 (NA)
Rick Scott (R): 34 (NA)
Bud Chiles (I): 12 (NA)
Undecided: 23 (NA)
(MoE: ±4%)
It’s a dramatically different gubernatorial race since the last time Ipsos polled, with Rick Scott having appeared on the scene and spent one-time frontrunner Bill McCollum into near obscurity, and with independent Bud Chiles having launched an inexplicable centrist bid. Here’s an indication of how far McCollum has fallen: now he’s actually trailing Democrat Alex Sink. (The movement is all within the margin of error, though, and Rick Scott has a small lead over Sink instead, probably by virtue of his saturation advertising — although his latest round of advertising, allegedly about his pro-life credentials, may be backfiring, given that the St. Petersburg Times is now calling him “deceitful” and “heartless.”) Interestingly, since the entry of Chiles, this is the second poll to show that Chiles hardly budges the needle at all (rather than taking all his votes out of Sink’s column, as many had feared); he seems to draw evenly from both sides, probably finding most of his support among conservative Dixiecrats.
If you haven’t seen it yet, the campaign released a new web video this morning, asking the question, “How do you find the real Democrat in the Florida U.S. Senate race”? Take a look and tell me what you think. Video and transcript after the jump…
Narrator: How do you find the real Democrat in the Florida U.S. Senate race?
Narrator: Uh, not Marco Rubio, no.
Narrator: Jeff Greene says he’s a Democrat, but he was a Republican, and was not a Democrat until 2008.
Chorus: He’s not a real Democrat.
Narrator: He’s just confused.
Narrator: Jeff thinks he can use the bazillion dollars he made when middle class families lost their homes to buy the Florida Senate seat. [Chorus: Boos]
Chorus: That’s Just Charlie Crist
Narrator: Even Charlie Crist said: “I’m a Jeb Bush Republican,” “It’s hard to be more conservative than I am on the issues.”
Chorus: Charlie Crist is no Democrat
Narrator: So, which candidate in the race is pro-choice, has always voted against offshore drilling, and stood up for the middle class?
Chorus: That’s Kendrick Meek
Chorus: Democrat [Photo of President Bill Clinton]
Chorus: Democrat [Photo of President Barack Obama]
Chorus: Democrat [Photo of Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz]
Chorus: Democrat [Photo of Sen. Al Franken]
Chorus: Democrat [Photo of Rep. Nydia Velazquez]
Chorus: Democrat [Photo of Rep. Ted Deutch]
Chorus: Democrat [Photo of Rep. Alcee Hastings]
Narrator: That’s why these Dems are supporting Kendrick Meek.
Narrator: Don’t miss the elephant in the room. There’s only one real Democrat in the race — Kendrick Meek for U.S. Senate.
Paid for by Kendrick Meek for Florida.
11:16pm: Move over, Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint, because the GOP has a new kingmaker, and his name is Dale Peterson. With John McMillan haven gotten the Peterson Bump, he sent Dummy back to his chicken farm, 52-48. (That’s with 2800 out of 2804 precincts reporting, although there’s still no call from the AP. Because they’re thorough like that.) (Um, with that, I think we’re going to call it a night.)
10:10pm: In what I’m sure is a case of a late-breaking surge of former Dale Peterson supporters, John McMillan has pushed into the lead in the Agriculture Commissioner GOP primary, 51-49, over that sign-stealing cur, “Dummy” Dorman Grace.
10:05pm: In case you’re wondering, Sewell will face off in November against Donald Chamberlain, who won the AL-07 GOP runoff over C. Salter 57-43. In other news, congratulations to future Rep. Terri Sewell.
10:02pm: And with about 80% reporting, the AP has finally called AL-07, in favor of Terri Sewell. She wins 56-44, after outspending Shelia Smoot almost 10:1.
10:00pm: This is way down in the weeds, but the delightfully-named Twinkle Cavanaugh has won the GOP runoff for Public Service Commission Position 1, 61-39.
9:56pm: At the federal level, that leaves just AL-07. And with Shelia Smoot losing Jefferson County 53-47 (that’s the county where she’s a Commissioner), that doesn’t bode well for her chances.
9:52pm: And hot on the heels of that, the AP calls AL-02 for Martha Roby. She’s at 61%, over Rick Barber, and she’ll face Bobby Bright in November. In the meantime, Zombie Lincoln must cry himself to sleep tonight, his nation condemned to health care slavery.
9:49pm: The AP has called AL-Gov for Robert Bentley. He’ll face Ron Sparks in the fall.
9:33pm: Looks like more whimper than bang. Bentley 57, Roby 61, Sewell 54.
9:20pm: With 30% reporting, Bentley is crushing, 56-44. So is Roby (22% in), 58-42. Sewell (20% in) has widened her lead to 55-45.
9:09pm: Bentley up by more than 7 points now with 15% in statewide.
9:08pm: More results are coming in. AL-07 has shot up to 15% reporting, and the race has tightened to 53-47 Sewell.
9:00pm: Time, fortunately, appears to have resumed its forward progress. With 7% in, Bentley has a 59-41 lead. With 6% in, Roby is at 72%. AL-07 still stuck on 2%.
8:45pm: Some eleven-dimensional superstrings have wriggled a few AL-07 results into existence – for now. Terri Sewell leads Shelia Smoot 57-43 with about 2% (maybe???) reporting.
8:42pm: Hahah – this has been pretty funny. Now we’re down to 1% in AL-Gov, but the vote totals actually keep increasing. Bentley leads 62-38, 2,727 to 1,666 votes. Forget about a ganja break – this has been more like an LSD break.
8:37pm: The DeLorean has hit 88mph, because we are travelling BACK THROUGH TIME. The AP is now down to less than 2% reporting in the gov race, or as I like to call it, the Curious Election of Benjamin Button.
8:30pm: Hmm, wonder if that was an error on the AP’s part. We’re now down to just 3% reporting, with a 56-44 Bentley lead. Over in AL-02, 1% is reporting, and Martha Roby has a 69-31 lead over Rick “The Barber” Barber. Nothing in AL-07 yet.
8:19pm: A teeny trickle of results are in so far. With 7% of precincts reporting, Robert Bentley has a 52-48 lead over Bradley Byrne in the gov race – though that translates to just 718 votes to 653.
Results: Associated Press | Politico
This is the first part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate elections in blue states. The first part, which analyzes Illinois can be found here.
Out of the three heavily Democratic states being analyzed, Republicans probably have the least chance of winning New York. A serious Republican challenger to Senator Kristen Gillibrand has yet to emerge. Moreover, Ms. Gillibrand has proven an adept politician willing to campaign hard.
Nevertheless, in a bad national environment with low name recognition, victory for Democrats is not assured. Under the right circumstances (perhaps a Gillibrand scandal), Republicans may be able to pull off a shocker.
Like Illinois, New York can be divided into three sections: upstate, the suburbs downstate, and New York City. A New York Republican must win upstate and the suburbs by substantial margins – and perform extremely well in New York City.
More below.
Upstate New York
Like Illinois, the first step on the Republican road to victory lies with here. A Republican candidate must win strong margins upstate; a strong performance here is embedded with a double-digit loss.
Unfortunately for Republicans, upstate New York and downstate Illinois are not the same. Unlike Illinois, upstate New York is home to four major cities: Buffalo, Rochester, Albany, and Syracuse. In a normal election – i.e. a double-digit Democratic victory – these cities will vote Democratic, some by substantial margins.
There are several more wrinkles for a Republican candidate. Like much of the rural northeast, upstate New York has been trending Democratic. Despite the conservative national mood, Democrats last year won two special elections upstate. Moreover, Senator Kristen Gillibrand has roots there; she represented an upstate congressional district before becoming Senator.
Nevertheless, the majority of this region still votes loyally Republican; a competitive candidate can rely upon it to help counter New York City. In a close election a Republican ought to win almost every county in upstate New York.
The Suburbs Downstate
This region can be defined as the suburbs surrounding New York City: Long Island and the communities around Yonkers. A Republican’s task here is similar to that upstate: win, and win big.
Historically this was not too difficult; New York City’s suburbs regularly voted Republican, although never by enough to overcome Democratic margins in the city itself. Like many other suburbs, this changed with President Bill Clinton: since his time they have generally voted Democratic.
Today things are changing once more. Since the events of 9/11, downstate’s suburbs (especially Long Island) have been trending Republican. This was one of the few regions Senator John McCain did well in (as opposed to President Barack Obama doing poorly in); his national security credentials appealed to a number of downstate suburban voters.
A strong Republican must capitalize on this trend, changing New York’s suburbs back into Republican territory. This strength, added to margins from upstate, makes for a 5% Republican loss. Republican candidates have achieved this combination many times in the state’s electoral history. Take 1968, when President Richard Nixon lost New York by 5.46%:
The problem is the last 5%, to which a Republican must look to New York City for.
New York City
To make up the last 5%, a Republican candidate must do well in New York City, that great metropolis of the United States. The Big Apple composes an astounding 43% of the state’s population, the largest proportion in the country. It also votes extremely Democratic; in 2008 four out of five voters turned the lever for President Barack Obama.
The Republican facing Ms. Gillibrand will have to substantially improve upon this number. This is not as hard as it first sounds. New York City, after all, has had a non-Democratic mayor for more than a decade. Low minority turn-out looks likely to bedevil Democrats during this off-year election. Moreover, Republicans retain a base in Staten Island and southern Brooklyn. Even in 2008 these places voted Republican:
(Note: Image courtesy of a very old post from jeffmd.)
Finally, some regional complexities come into play. Although almost all of New York City voted for Mr. Obama, some parts are more less loyally Democratic than others (as was the case in Massachusetts). White liberals and impoverished minorities in Manhattan and the Bronx almost never vote Republican; suburbanites in Brooklyn and Queens, on the other hand, are more perceptible to Republican appeals. Winning Republicans generally tie or win the Queens borough and hold Democrats below 60% in the Kings borough.
Conclusions
If New York is close next November, it will probably look something like this:
This map can indicate anything from a 5% Democratic victory to a 5% Republican victory, depending on turn-out. Perhaps the best barometer will be the Queens borough in New York City. Look to it next November – it might literally determine the fate of the Democratic Senate majority.
• KY-Sen: Jack Conway is pulling in some big fundraising numbers now that Dems are seeing an opening here. He raised $1.4 million last quarter (although $400K of that was a loan from himself). That tops Rand Paul’s $1.1 million raised, although Paul will point out that all of his haul came from donors. No word on either side’s CoH.
• LA-Sen: It seems like the scandal that’s emerged surrounding David Vitter’s employment of violent aide Brent Furer was what pulled ex-state supreme court justice Chet Traylor into a last-minute credible challenge to Vitter in the GOP primary. Traylor says “if Vitter was in good shape, I wouldn’t be running,” and his camp says they’ll be focusing on Vitter’s “personal foibles” rather than ideological differences. In fact, Traylor’s campaign manager (whom the Monroe local newspaper identifies as “sweet potato kingpin” Lev Dawson) says “I don’t think there’s a difference politically.” Traylor also tells ABC News that many local GOP establishment figures urged his last-minute entry out of fears that Vitter may be too badly damaged politically to survive the general against Charlie Melancon. Meanwhile, we’ve all known that Vitter is quite willing to experiment with interesting new, um, practices, but as he seeks to move even further right in view of Traylor’s challenge, he’s now going birther-curious.
• NC-Sen: If there’s a reason Richard Burr is able to hold on to the “cursed” seat this year, it’s going to be his bank account. The GOP freshman Senator raised $1.9 million last quarter, and is sitting on $6.3 million CoH. While Elaine Marshall seems to have gotten a good fundraising boost after the Democratic runoff, she’s likely to have only a fraction of that.
• SC-Sen: Be afraid. Be verrrrrrrrry afraid. (Alvin Greene is about to give his first formal speech as candidate, addressing a local NAACP chapter on Saturday.)
• WA-Sen: Here’s the good news for Patty Murray: she had a $1.6 million quarter, which is a lot of money in the “other” Washington. She’s sitting on $6.8 million CoH. The bad news is that conservative group American Action Network is spending $750K on a statewide buy for TV ads attacking Murray. The ad, continuing in Demon Sheep/Boxer Blimp impresario Fred Davis’s avant-garde performance-art tradition, features various Joe and Jane Sixpacks lying in the dirt getting walked all over by an unseen figure in white tennis shoes.
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin’s giving a little more clarity to his timeline in West Virginia. He says he expects to fill Robert Byrd’s seat with a temporary appointment by “this Sunday,” possibly as early as Friday if the special legislative session about the special election is done by then. He’ll announce after that (probably by Monday) whether he intends to run in the special.
• CO-Gov: This is a surprisingly amateurish thing to get taken down over: the Denver Post has observed that a series of articles on water rights “written” by Republican ex-Rep. Scott McInnis as part of a 2005-06 fellowship were simply plagiarized from articles written twenty years earlier by Gregory Hobbs, who’s now a Colorado Supreme Court justice. The foundation McInnis was working for would like the salary returned to them that they paid him. It’s unclear how much damage this will do to McInnis, or how this stacks up compared with allegations of dishonesty leveled at Mark Kirk and Richard Blumenthal… but locked in a dead heat with John Hickenlooper, McInnis doesn’t have any margin of error to shed a few points over character issues. (For what it’s worth, RCP seems to think he’s finished. Too bad the only GOP alternative, Dan Maes, is completely broke and in campaign-finance hot water.)
• IL-Gov: The DGA is out with a new ad running on Chicago area TV stations, trying to introduce the area’s many residents to downstate state Sen. Bill Brady and disabuse them of any notion that he’s the sort of GOP moderate that’s typically occupied the state house over the last few decades. The ad points out his extreme positions on reproductive health and minimum wage.
• TN-Gov: Republican Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam is still the man with the money, although everybody’s moved into the seven digits. Haslam has $2 million CoH, compared with Ron Ramsey’s $1.35 million and Zach Wamp’s $1.29 million. On the Dem side, Mike McWherter has $1.5 million CoH, having raised $315K last quarter.
• AR-01: Radio broadcaster Rick Crawford, the GOP nominee, has a small cash edge in the 1st, as Democrat Chad Causey’s pretty depleted after having to go through a runoff. Crawford raised $131K post-primary and has $221K CoH. Causey raised $416K over the quarter, but spent $420K on the primary. No word on Causey’s CoH (although I assume it’s something higher than -$4K).
• CO-04: With Corey Gardner having released his financial numbers, it’s clear Betsy Markey has the money edge for now. His $377K raised last quarter is still pretty impressive, but it’s less than Markey raised, and Gardner’s $763K CoH is about half of Markey’s $1.5 million.
• FL-25: Joe Garcia reports raising $700K last quarter, including $230K in online contributions (thanks, netroots!). He still lags behind likely GOP nominee David Rivera, though.
• NH-02: Of the candidates in the 2nd, Ann McLane Kuster (another netroots project) was the big raiser. She pulled in $316K, for $745K CoH. Fellow Dem Katrina Swett raised $188K, but has more CoH at $1.15 million. GOPer Charlie Bass leads in the polls but not at the bank: he raised $170K, for $360K CoH.
• NJ-03: Freshman Democratic Rep. John Adler is out with an internal poll that has him sprinting for the end zone while Jon Runyan limps along behind: the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll gives Adler a 51-34 lead over Runyan, with 12 to independent teabagger Peter DeStefano (I’d imagine that lead would tighten as the DeStefano share shrinks). Runyan raised $501K last quarter (a bit more than Adler’s $415K), but $301K was from donors and the other $200K was from himself. Runyan seemed to burn a lot on his surviving his primary, though; he’s sitting on $472K CoH compared with Adler’s more than $2 million.
• NV-03: Rep. Dina Titus is in good shape financially (less so, poll-wise). The freshman Dem raised $426K and has $1.2 million CoH.
• PA-04, PA-17: Keystone State Blue Dogs Jason Altmire and Tim Holden posted good numbers. Altmire raised more than $300K in May and June and is sitting on $1.4 million CoH. Holden raised $213K in that period and is sitting on $885K CoH, which isn’t huge but far more than David Argall (who had $70K before the primary he barely survived) is likely to have.
• TN-09: Here’s a big score for Steve Cohen, facing a primary from former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton that’s, as is usually the case in the 9th, all about the race card. Cohen just got an endorsement from prominent African-American politician Barack Obama, as well as financial backing from several key House CBC members (John Lewis, Alcee Hastings, William Clay) apparently unenthused with the specter of the potentially-embarrassing Herenton joining their ranks.
• Rasmussen:
• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%, Jane Norton (R) 44%
• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 40%, Jane Norton (R) 47%
• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%, Ken Buck (R) 47%
• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 39%, Ken Buck (R) 48%
• MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski (D-inc) 58%, Eric Wargotz (R) 33%
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 43%, Sharron Angle (R) 46%
If you’re Scott Rasmussen, what do you like to do on your day off? Well, you might like to go on a cruise. A cruise for fans of conservative magazine National Review, as their all-expenses-paid guest.
In an effort to keep folks in the loop about important down-ballot races here in New York, I’m going to start posting weekly roundups of all the news related to New York State Senate (#NYSen10 on Twitter) candidates. If you want to follow these daily, visit the New York Senate Dems blog, or subscribe to our RSS feed.
If we missed anything, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments. If you’d like to donate to any of the Democratic challengers running this year, New York Senate Dems has set up an Act Blue page featuring all the challengers (no incumbents) who are registered on the site: Change Albany Now!–Mike
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Empire State Pride Agenda endorsed 7 of our general election candidates. Those who made the cut:
Mary Wilmot Challenges James Alesi on Mayoral Control. Mayoral control of schools is a hot issue in Rochester. Today, Democratic challenger Mary Wilmot took on her opponeent, James Alesi, for his hypocrisy on the issue and for failing Rochester’s school children.
Mike Kaplowitz signed all five of the major reform packages meant to clean up Albany yesterday, in an effort to fix state government and help New York’s economy. He signed all of them – the Pledge for Change, Call to Action, Enough Already NY, New NY Agenda and NY Uprising – at a news conference in Bailey Park in Somers. “I’m calling it a plan for reform. The stakes are high but the time is now,” said Kaplowitz.
Sen. Oppenheimer became the latest Democratic candidate to sign on to New York Uprising’s reform pledge yesterday. “New York Uprising has brought together the critical reforms needed in New York State, which I have long supported and sponsored. By securing commitments from candidates now, it is my hope that we will have the momentum to make these reforms a reality in 2011,” said Sen. Oppenheimer.
Newsday profiled this year’s Senate races on Long Island (subscription required). Long Island is a competitive battleground in this year’s campaign to expand our majority in the senate. Mentioned as the most vulnerable Republicans were 34-year incumbent Ken LaValle, who is being challenged by Regina Calcaterra, and 21-year incumbent Kemp Hannon, who is being challenged by Dave Mejias.
Speaking of Regina Calcaterra, she received a glowing write up in the local press. T.J. Clemente, lauded her as a “young gifted fighter with energy and ideals.” He also added: “There are forces at work when she speaks. Every word about this election seems to bring up a passion seen only in individuals with a singularity of purpose.”
Susan Savage stood with nurses in demanding fair contract – Savage, running against 34-year Republican incumbent Hugh Farley, walked a picket line with nurses in her district who are seeking a new contract. The nurses are asking for, and have so far been denied, a combination of fair wages, health care benefits, and nursing ratios.
Democratic incumbent Craig Johnson received the support of Mayor Michael Bloomberg – Mayor Bloomberg is lending his name to a fundraiser next Monday to support Sen. Johnson. Mayor Bloomberg had pledged to help legislators who lead on issues of great importance to him. Charter schools are such an issue for the Mayor, and Sen. Johnson has been a fierce proponent of charter schools at the state level. This is a departure for Bloomberg, who is typically one of the NY SRCC’s largest donors.
David Carlucci received a major endorsement from Congressman Eliot Engel, who said: “David Carlucci and I have worked together for years, and because of that relationship, I know firsthand that he is the right person to represent the people of his district in the State Senate. David has demonstrated his commitment to making government work for the people as Town Clerk of Clarkstown.”
Michael Steele and RNC decided to dumping cash in Didi Barret’s district. Barrett is running against Republican Stephen Saland. The national GOP has recently announced it will be funneling cash for local elections directly to county leaders in New York. One of the first areas to receive RNC dollars will be Dutchess county, which includes 80% of SD-41, where Barrett is running against Republican Stephen Saland.
REPUBLICANS
In an extensive look inside the NY SRCC, The Capitol described a “shoe-string operation” defined by disarray and despair. Just a few of the myriad of problems for the Senate GOP that the piece identified: special-interest money that once flowed has dried to a trickle, old allies have fled , and the Independence Party (which strongly backed Senate Republicans both with its ballot line and financial resources in 2008) has undergone a fundamental shift in philosophy and will support Senate candidates from both sides of the aisle this year.
The New York Observer questioned SRCC chair Tom Libous’ ties to political turncoat Carl Paladino, calling it “somewhat odd that Libous would appear alongside [Carl] Paladino, since Rick Lazio is now the GOP’s gubernatorial designee, and Paladino is threatening to run on a third party line.”
In the GOP primary to decide who will challenge Democratic incumbent Dave Valesky, home-town favorite Danny Liedka looks to get shut out by SRCC-backed concert pianist Andrew Russo (yes, you read that right). According to the Auburn Pub, Liedka raised $48k and has just $5k cash-on-hand. Russo is reported to have raised 4 times that number.
Greg Ball, Tea Party candidate and potential opponent to Mike Kaplowitz for the 40th SD seat vacated by Vincent Leibell was accused of groping a waitress during “a rowdy night at an Albany bar.”
Aside from a weird little special primary for the Dems in sleepy OH-03, all eyes tonight are on the runoffs in Alabama. Let’s check in on the three big-ticket items tonight (there’s also a Dem runoff in the AG’s race, and a sadly Dale Peterson-free Republican runoff in the Ag Commissioner’s race).
• AL-Gov (R): The GOP gubernatorial runoff between ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne and state Rep. Robert Bentley is a convoluted one, as Byrne is simultaneously getting squeezed from the left and from the right, by Bentley in both cases. Bentley, who’s closely linked to Mike Huckabee’s camp, has the social conservative cred, and seems to have consolidated many former Tim James and Roy Moore voters, in opposition to the former Democrat and GOP-establishment-backed Byrne. Byrne, however, has been a tireless foe of the Alabama Education Association, who are much friendlier with Bentley. (As much as this is a duel between two guys trying to out-conservative each other, remember that these are the two comparatively reasonable guys in the field, with serious wackos Moore and James having fallen by the wayside). Both candidates have internal polls giving them the lead, but a sorta-public poll from Baselice gives Bentley the edge. The winner faces Democratic Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks.
• AL-02 (R): Gather your armies! Montgomery city councilwoman Martha Roby, the NRCC-crowned establishment favorite, just barely fell short of an outright primary victory last month, taking 49% to teabagging businessman Rick “The Barber” Barber’s 29%. Barber, who has lagged in the fundraising race against Roby, has attempted to gin up interest in his campaign through a series of increasingly absurd “viral” videos. Either candidate will face a tough general election fight against frosh Dem Rep. Bobby Bright, who’s leaving little room for his would-be opponent on his right flank. (J)
• AL-07 (D): Wall Street securities lawyer Terri Sewell squares off against Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot. Sewell led after the first round, with 37% of the vote to Smoot’s 29%. (Earl Hilliard, Jr. took 22% but hasn’t endorsed anyone in the runoff.) Sewell has swamped Smoot on the fundraising front, taking in some $1 million to Smoot’s $150,000 (thanks at least in part to her befuddling EMILY’s List endorsement), and has dominated the airwaves. The campaign has turned negative during the long runoff period, with Smoot accusing Sewell of accepting lots of out-of-state “Republican” money and calling her “Artur Davis in a dress.” Meanwhile, Sewell has suggested that Smoot double-dipped on a car allowance from JeffCo. No polls of the runoff have been released, so we’ll see whether Sewell’s money can carry the day for her, or whether Smoot has effectively tied her opponent to Davis (who performed very badly here – his home district – in the AL-Gov primary against Ron Sparks). (D)
If you have any predictions, please share them in the comments!
Polls close at 7 pm Central time (8 pm Eastern, 5 pm Pacific).
I'm not big on making predictions outside of the occasional comment on a diary, but it is hard not to get in on the game when others are doing it. I've taken a different approach with my rankings, since so many other posters have pointed out why certain seats will flip, I won't get into individually critiquing the races. I'm also only analyzing the potential Democratic losses, as potential for Democratic gains is greatly limited this year. I wanted to do a swingometer, but I'm still trying working with flash to do it properly, so for now, I'm doing a primitive one. It was hard making sure I listed all the competitive races, so if I have missed anything, please tell me and I can add it. I also listed some races in the second and third tiers more randomly, since they are harder to predict on the swing.
I've edited the colors so readers can read it better, the pastels should work fine.
It's not conventional to use the swingometer method for Congressional races, because the uniform swing is hardly ever has a presence, but I have looked at other cycles of house races and come up with a meter that makes sense.
This is where we are at now, these are all the House races are in contention, they are a mixture of likely GOP, toss-up, lean Democratic and likely Democratic, most around here know the rankings. Here are the boards.
| TN-6 | AL-2 | NJ-6 |
| LA-3 | ID-1 | CT-4 |
| AR-2 | WI-7 | NJ-12 |
| NY-29 | VA-11 | WI-3 |
| OH-1 | FL-2 | UT-2 |
| MD-1 | NM-1 | NC-2 |
| OH-15 | PA-3 | MO-3 |
| IN-8 | NJ-3 | KY-6 |
| KS-3 | SD-AL | IN-2 |
| VA-5 | MO-4 | WA-2 |
| IN-9 | PA-12 | MN-1 |
| NM-2 | TX-23 | NY-20 |
| TN-8 | PA-10 | NY-25 |
| CO-4 | NY-13 | TN-4 |
| VA-2 | SC-5 | RI-1 |
| MS-1 | OH-18 | OH-6 |
| FL-8 | OH-13 | GA-12 |
| NH-2 | NY-1 | PA-4 |
| VA-5 | PA-8 | OR-1 |
| NH-1 | OH-16 | PA-17 |
| ND-AL | MA-10 | IA-1 |
| WA-3 | NY-23 | KY-3 |
| MI-7 | NY-19 | GA-8 |
| NV-3 | VA-9 | CA-18 |
| FL-24 | CT-5 | MI-9 |
| MI-1 | FL-22 | CO-7 |
| NY-24 | OR-5 | IL-8 |
| AR-1 | WV-3 | CA-20 |
| IL-14 | PA-11 | CA-47 |
| TX-17 | PA-7 | |
| WV-1 |
If the GOP were to achieve moderate swing, it would amount about 20 or so seats, like the 1978 midterm election. This would be the best case scenario for Democrats, but I see more of a swing than this.
| TN-6 | AL-2 | NJ-6 |
| LA-3 | ID-1 | CT-4 |
| AR-2 | WI-7 | NJ-12 |
| NY-29 | VA-11 | WI-3 |
| OH-1 | FL-2 | UT-2 |
| MD-1 | NM-1 | NC-2 |
| OH-15 | PA-3 | MO-3 |
| IN-8 | NJ-3 | KY-6 |
| KS-3 | SD-AL | IN-2 |
| VA-5 | MO-4 | WA-2 |
| IN-9 | PA-12 | MN-1 |
| NM-2 | TX-23 | NY-20 |
| TN-8 | PA-10 | NY-25 |
| CO-4 | NY-13 | TN-4 |
| VA-2 | SC-5 | RI-1 |
| MS-1 | OH-18 | OH-6 |
| FL-8 | OH-13 | GA-12 |
| NH-2 | NY-1 | PA-4 |
| VA-5 | PA-8 | OR-1 |
| NH-1 | OH-16 | PA-17 |
| ND-AL | MA-10 | IA-1 |
| WA-3 | NY-23 | KY-3 |
| MI-7 | NY-19 | GA-8 |
| NV-3 | VA-9 | CA-18 |
| FL-24 | CT-5 | MI-9 |
| MI-1 | FL-22 | CO-7 |
| NY-24 | OR-5 | IL-8 |
| AR-1 | WV-3 | CA-20 |
| IL-14 | PA-11 | CA-47 |
| TX-17 | PA-7 | |
| WV-1 |
Now, the next chart shows a swing similar to the one achieved by Democrats in '06. The difference is, it would leave the GOP short of majority. This is the scenario that I think will actually happen in November.
| TN-6 | AL-2 | NJ-6 |
| LA-3 | ID-1 | CT-4 |
| AR-2 | WI-7 | NJ-12 |
| NY-29 | VA-11 | WI-3 |
| OH-1 | FL-2 | UT-2 |
| MD-1 | NM-1 | NC-2 |
| OH-15 | PA-3 | MO-3 |
| IN-8 | NJ-3 | KY-6 |
| KS-3 | SD-AL | IN-2 |
| VA-5 | MO-4 | WA-2 |
| IN-9 | PA-12 | MN-1 |
| NM-2 | TX-23 | NY-20 |
| TN-8 | PA-10 | NY-25 |
| CO-4 | NY-13 | TN-4 |
| VA-2 | SC-5 | RI-1 |
| MS-1 | OH-18 | OH-6 |
| FL-8 | OH-13 | GA-12 |
| NH-2 | NY-1 | PA-4 |
| VA-5 | PA-8 | OR-1 |
| NH-1 | OH-16 | PA-17 |
| ND-AL | MA-10 | IA-1 |
| WA-3 | NY-23 | KY-3 |
| MI-7 | NY-19 | GA-8 |
| NV-3 | VA-9 | CA-18 |
| FL-24 | CT-5 | MI-9 |
| MI-1 | FL-22 | CO-7 |
| NY-24 | OR-5 | IL-8 |
| AR-1 | WV-3 | CA-20 |
| IL-14 | PA-11 | CA-47 |
| TX-17 | PA-7 | |
| WV-1 | ||
The next scenario is the one where the GOP takes the house, but only by getting right to 218. If they are going to win the House, it likely won't be by more than this. They've got to reach way into the third column to even get a narrow majority.
| TN-6 | AL-2 | NJ-6 |
| LA-3 | ID-1 | CT-4 |
| AR-2 | WI-7 | NJ-12 |
| NY-29 | VA-11 | WI-3 |
| OH-1 | FL-2 | UT-2 |
| MD-1 | NM-1 | NC-2 |
| OH-15 | PA-3 | MO-3 |
| IN-8 | NJ-3 | KY-6 |
| KS-3 | SD-AL | IN-2 |
| VA-5 | MO-4 | WA-2 |
| IN-9 | PA-12 | MN-1 |
| NM-2 | TX-23 | NY-20 |
| TN-8 | PA-10 | NY-25 |
| CO-4 | NY-13 | TN-4 |
| VA-2 | SC-5 | RI-1 |
| MS-1 | OH-18 | OH-6 |
| FL-8 | OH-13 | GA-12 |
| NH-2 | NY-1 | PA-4 |
| VA-5 | PA-8 | OR-1 |
| NH-1 | OH-16 | PA-17 |
| ND-AL | MA-10 | IA-1 |
| WA-3 | NY-23 | KY-3 |
| MI-7 | NY-19 | GA-8 |
| NV-3 | VA-9 | CA-18 |
| FL-24 | CT-5 | MI-9 |
| MI-1 | FL-22 |
CO-7 |
| NY-24 | OR-5 | IL-8 |
| AR-1 | WV-3 | CA-20 |
| IL-14 | PA-11 | CA-47 |
| TX-17 | PA-7 | |
| WV-1 |
The last one is the most disastrous that it could get, but I don't see the GOP pulling this one off, but it's worth putting out there. If the GOP can manage a big swing of votes, this could happen. But it isn't 1994 and the GOP has a lot less prospects, but like I said, it's worth discussing.
| TN-6 | AL-2 | NJ-6 |
| LA-3 | ID-1 | CT-4 |
| AR-2 | WI-7 | NJ-12 |
| NY-29 | VA-11 | WI-3 |
| OH-1 | FL-2 | UT-2 |
| MD-1 | NM-1 | NC-2 |
| OH-15 | PA-3 | MO-3 |
| IN-8 | NJ-3 | KY-6 |
| KS-3 | SD-AL | IN-2 |
| VA-5 | MO-4 | WA-2 |
| IN-9 | PA-12 | MN-1 |
| NM-2 | TX-23 | NY-20 |
| TN-8 | PA-10 | NY-25 |
| CO-4 | NY-13 | TN-4 |
| VA-2 | SC-5 | RI-1 |
| MS-1 | OH-18 | OH-6 |
| FL-8 | OH-13 | GA-12 |
| NH-2 | NY-1 | PA-4 |
| VA-5 | PA-8 | OR-1 |
| NH-1 | OH-16 | PA-17 |
| ND-AL | MA-10 | IA-1 |
| WA-3 | NY-23 | KY-3 |
| MI-7 | NY-19 | GA-8 |
| NV-3 | VA-9 | CA-18 |
| FL-24 | CT-5 | MI-9 |
| MI-1 | FL-22 | CO-7 |
| NY-24 | OR-5 | IL-8 |
| AR-1 | WV-3 | CA-20 |
| IL-14 | PA-11 | CA-47 |
| TX-17 | PA-7 | |
| WV-1 |
Now, as all politics is local and some incumbents are liked by many, the swing in any of these scenarios can result in a different combination of seats switching hands, but I have ranked the seats in the order that I think they are likely to fall. It's all up to rather or not Democrats can localize these races to counteract Republicans nationalizing them. If turnout is good and Dem candidates can keep it local, the losses will be minimized. That's my swingometer, comment and point out any mistakes I might have made or your own analysis.
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45
Carly Fiorina (R): 47
Other: 3
Undecided: 5Jerry Brown (D): 39
Meg Whitman (R): 46
Other: 7
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4%)
Mike Pompeo (R): 27 (19)
Wink Hartman (R): 21 (38)
Jean Schodorf (R): 13 (13)
Jim Anderson (R): 4 (5)
(MoE: ±5.3%)
Cedric Richmond (D): 26
Joe Cao (R-inc): 51
(MoE: ±5%)
Cao being in the lead is probably correct (though I have my doubts as to the extent of the lead), given that no one really knows who Cedric Richmond, a state representative, is. Hopefully we’ll see more general election polling once Richmond and fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta fully engage their primary campaigns.