Month: July 2010

In a previous diary, I said that I was not going to post this plan for California because I thought it’s a “dummymander” in terms of Democratic prospects … I still think that (at least when compared to the previous map I drew for the state) … However, when I looked at the plan again, it appears to guarantee no less a number of Democrats than the current (2002) plan.  So, while the plan here may be a “dummymander”, it is not a bigger “dummymander” than the existing plan.  In other words, if this plan were adopted, Democrats would still be assured of having at least as many seats in California as we have today — BUT with the added possibility (and in many cases, a probability) of an extra 14 Democratic seats.  So, I will post the map I drew after all.

This is my second attempt at California since the partisan data by precinct became available in Dave’s Application.  My first attempt is here ….

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

I decided to do the new map to see just how many Democratic districts you can create using a lower Democratic “threshold” — in this plan, I wanted each Democratic district to be at least 55% Obama (maximum 44% McCain), as opposed to the 62% Obama (maximum 37% McCain) I used in my first map.  Under the “55% plan” you can create 48 Democratic districts for California (as opposed to 43 Democratic districts under the “62% plan”.)

I still strongly believe that having the 62% Obama minimum is a better plan for California, as the “55% plan” might lead to the partial “dummymander” (a good number of the 55-57% Obama districts here would have voted for Bush in 2004, whereas every single one of the 43 Democratic districts created under the “62% plan” would have voted for John Kerry).  Nevertheless, the “55% plan” results in generally more compact districts, and of course, 5 more possible Democrats than the “62% plan”.  Also, even under the “55% plan” a total of 34 districts are at least 58% Obama, which is better than the current (2002) plan that has only 33 districts that are at least 58% Obama.  So, in that sense, in a worst-case scenario, we would still have 34 districts pretty much as solid Democratic ones, even if the other 14 districts that are 55%-57% Obama somehow went GOP (actually, there’s one 54% Obama – 44% McCain district that I left as such because that’s the max. Democratic percentage you could do in that area without messing with county lines / compactness; only two districts are 55% Obama, while the remainder are all at least 56% Obama).

The 5 GOP districts that remain under this plan all went 58% – 62% McCain: they are CA-2 (Wally Herger); CA-21 (Devin Nunes); CA-41 (Jerry Lewis); CA-42 (Gary Miller); and CA-52 (Duncan Hunter).

The plan produces more compact districts, in terms of keeping counties and communities intact.  It has only 112 “county-fragments” (please see my first attempt above for the lengthy explanation if you’re not sure what those are), as opposed to the current (2002) plan that has a total of 120 “county-fragments”.  (The 112 includes one tiny sliver of Santa Clara Co. that has only 130 persons but is needed to connect the Alameda and Stanislaus parts of CA-11.)  The 1992 plan that was a non-partisan commission-drawn plan based largely on geographic compactness also had only 112 fragments, and this was when California only had 52 districts, so the plan here with 53 districts is technically more geographically compact — in terms of keeping counties and communities intact — than the non-partisan commission-based plan of the 1990’s (of course, my goal is still to produce as many Democratic seats as possible, which was not the goal of the 1992 plan !).  

The “55% plan” also creates a total of 15 Hispanic majority districts and 4 Hispanic plurality districts (there are currently only eight Hispanic representatives from California), three Asian-plurality districts, one African-American-plurality district (currently there are none in California), and 13 additional seats that are minority-majority (with no particular racial / ethnic minority dominant) … so a grand total of 36 minority-majority districts for the state (68% of the 53 districts).  The population deviation per district is +/- 2,000 persons.  Demographic info. is shown only as far as the majority or plurality racial/ethnic group.

Under this new plan the districts of most Democratic incumbents remain very safe Democratic seats.  McNerney’s district becomes safer (goes from 54% Obama to 60% Obama).  The only exceptions are Blue Dogs Cardoza and Costa, whose districts go from 59% and 60% Obama, respectively to 54% and 55% Obama; but the Blue Dogs should be able to handle this.  Matsui, Baca and Loretta Sanchez also get districts that are only 56% Obama/42% McCain – but I think they should be able to handle those also with good campaigns.  Last, but not least, Howard Berman also gets a 56% Obama/42% McCain district that now includes a good part of the current CA-22 (Kevin McCarthy); a match-up between the two would likely produce a race with a massive infusion of money.  On the bright side for Berman, the district I create for him is not Hispanic-majority, and perhaps he would see a Hispanic Democratic primary challenge against him as a bigger threat that a potential match-up with a high-profile Republican ?  The trade-off to all this is ofcourse that many new Democratic districts are created out of current GOP districts – several of the new districts are ones where a Democrat is virtually assured of winning: for example, Gallegly (CA-24) and Dreier (CA-26) both become 61% Obama districts, while Calvert (CA-44) becomes 62% Obama.

Anyhow, here’s my “55% Obama plan”:

District 1:

Incumbent: Mike Thompson (D)

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 35

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 68% white

Includes all of Napa, Lake, Glenn and Butte Counties, and part of Sonoma Co. – Santa Rosa, Sonoma, Rohnert Park

District 2:  

Incumbent: Wally Herger (R)

Current District:  Obama 43; McCain 55

Proposed District:  Obama 40; McCain 58

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 76% white

Includes all of Modoc, Shasta, Tehama, Lassen, Plumas, Sierra and Yuba Counties, and western part of Placer Co.

District 3:  

Incumbent: Dan Lungren (R)

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 54% white

Includes all of Colusa, Yolo and Sutter Counties, and part of Sacramento Co. including part of City of Sacramento

District 4:  

Incumbent: Tom McClintock (R)

Current District:  Obama 44; McCain 54

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 59% white

Includes all of Nevada, El Dorado, Amador, Alpine and Mono Counties, eastern part of Placer Co. and part of Sacramento Co. including part of City of Sacramento

District 5:  

Incumbent: Doris Matsui (D)

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 58% white

Includes part of Sacramento Co. – including Folsom, Citrus Heights and part of the city of Sacramento

District 6:

Incumbent: Lynn Woolsey (D)

Current District:  Obama 76; McCain 22

Proposed District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 75% white

Includes all of Del Norte, Siskiyou, Humboldt, Trinity and Mendocino Counties, and most of Sonoma and Marin Counties

District 7:  

Incumbent: George Miller (D)

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 27

Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 31

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 41% white

Includes all of Solano Co. and northern part of Contra Costa Co.

District 8:  

Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi (D)

Current District:  Obama 85; McCain 12

Proposed District:  Obama 85; McCain 13

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 45% white

Includes most of San Francisco

District 9:  

Incumbent: Barbara Lee (D)

Current District:  Obama 88; McCain 10

Proposed District:  Obama 80; McCain 18

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 39% white

Includes part of Alameda Co. – Berkeley, Dublin, Livermore and most of Oakland, and part of Contra Costa Co. – Moraga, Orinda, San Ramon

District 10:

Incumbent: John Garamendi (D)

Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Proposed District:  Obama 69; McCain 30

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 55% white

Includes central part of Contra Costa Co. and San Rafael in Marin Co.

District 11:  

Incumbent: Jerry McNerney (D)

Current District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 54% white

Includes part of Alameda Co. – Pleasanton and part of Oakland, almost all of Stanislaus Co. and sliver of Santa Clara Co.

District 12:  

Incumbent: Jackie Speier (D)

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Proposed District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 47% white

Includes part of San Francisco and most of San Mateo Co.

District 13:

Incumbent: Pete Stark (D)

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Proposed District:  Obama 75; McCain 23

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 33% asian

Includes part of Alameda Co. – Fremont, Newark, Union City, Hayward, San Leandro, Alameda, and part of Oakland

District 14:  

Incumbent: Anna Eshoo (D)

Current District:  Obama 73; McCain 25

Proposed District:  Obama 71; McCain 28

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 42% hispanic

Includes part of San Mateo Co. – Menlo Park, Atherton, East Palo Alto, Portola Valley and part of Redwood City, part of Santa Clara Co. – Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills and part of San Jose, and most of Merced Co.

District 15:  

Incumbent: Mike Honda (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 42% asian

Includes part of Santa Clara Co. – Milpitas, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Saratoga and part of San Jose

District 16:  

Incumbent: Zoe Lofgren (D)

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 29

Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 31

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 39% white

Includes part of Santa Clara Co. – Campbell, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill, Gilroy and part of San Jose

District 17:

Incumbent: Sam Farr (D)

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 26

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 65% white

Includes all of Santa Cruz Co. and San Luis Obispo Co., and coastal areas of Monterey Co.

District 18:  

Incumbent: Dennis Cardoza (D)

Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 47% Hispanic

Includes all of Calaveras, Tuolumne, Mariposa and Madera Counties, and most of cities of Fresno and Merced

District 19:  

Incumbent: George Radanovich (R) (retiring)*

Current District:  Obama 46; McCain 52

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 61% hispanic

Includes all of San Benito Co., inland part of Monterey Co. (including Salinas area), and western part of Fresno Co.

* District is completely “relocated” to another part of the Central Valley

District 20:

Incumbent: Jim Costa (D)

Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 55; McCain 43

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 55% hispanic

Includes all of Kings Co., western part of Kern Co. including part of Bakersfield, and part of Los Angeles Co. (Lancaster, Palmdale)

District 21:  

Incumbent: Devin Nunes (R)

Current District:  Obama 38; McCain 60

Proposed District:  Obama 36; McCain 62

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 50% white

Includes all of Tulare Co., eastern part of Fresno Co., and part of Kern Co.

District 22:  

Incumbent: Kevin McCarthy (R)*

Current District:  Obama 42; McCain 56

Proposed District:  Obama 55; McCain 44

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 39% white

Includes all of San Joaquin Co. and Riverbank in Stanislaus Co.

* District is completely “relocated” to another part of the Central Valley.

District 23:  

Incumbent: Lois Capps (D)

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 38

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 50% white

Includes all of Santa Barbara Co. and northern part of Ventura Co.

District 24:  

Incumbent: Elton Gallegly (R)

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 38

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 56% white

Includes southern part of Ventura Co., and part of Los Angeles Co. – Malibu, Santa Monica, Venice part of Los Angeles

District 25:  

Incumbent: Howard McKeon (R)

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 57; McCain 41

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 50%+ hispanic

Includes all of Inyo Co., and part of San Bernardino Co. – Ontario, Fontana, Adelanto, Victorville, Hesperia and Barstow

District 26:  

Incumbent: David Dreier (R)

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 56% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co., including El Monte, La Puente, Irwindale, Baldwin Park, Covina, Azusa, Glendora, San Dimas, LaVerne and Claremont

District 27:  

Incumbents: Brad Sherman (D)

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 38

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 43% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – including part of San Fernando Valley and northern part of the county

District 28:  

Incumbent: Howard Berman (D)

Current District:  Obama 76; McCain 22

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 48% hispanic

Includes eastern part of Kern Co. (including part of Bakersfield), and part of Los Angeles Co. (including part of San Fernando Valley)

District 29:  

Incumbent: Adam Schiff (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 45% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Burbank, Pasadena, and part of City of Los Angeles

District 30:  

Incumbent: Henry Waxman (D)

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 36

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 69% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Beverly Hills, West Hollywood, Calabassas, Hidden Hills, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, part of City of Los Angeles, and most of Santa Clarita

District 31:  

Incumbent: Xavier Beccera (D)

Current District:  Obama 80; McCain 18

Proposed District:  Obama 81; McCain 17

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 71% hispanic

Includes part of City of Los Angeles, Huntington Park, Cudahy and Maywood

District 32:  

Incumbent: Judy Chu (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 38

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 44% asian

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Monterey Park, Alhambra, South Pasadena, San Marino, Temple City, San Gabriel, Rosemead, Arcadia, Walnut, Diamond Bar, La Habra Heights

District 33:  

Incumbent: Diane Watson (D) (retiring)

Current District:  Obama 87; McCain 12

Proposed District:  Obama 82; McCain 16

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 59% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Lawndale, Culver City, and parts of City of Los Angeles, Inglewood and Hawthorne

District 34:  

Incumbent: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

Current District:  Obama 75; McCain 23

Proposed District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 59% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Downey, Bellflower, Bell Gardens, Commerce, Vernon, Glendale and part of City of Los Angeles

District 35:  

Incumbent: Maxine Waters (D)

Current District:  Obama 84; McCain 14

Proposed District:  Obama 81; McCain 17

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 38% black

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Palos Verdes peninsula, Santa Catalina Island/Avalon, and parts of Carson, Inglewood, Hawthorne and City of Los Angeles

District 36:  

Incumbent: Jane Harman (D)

Current District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 53% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Torrance, Gardena, Lomita, Redondo Beach, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, El Segundo, and part of City of Los Angeles

District 37:  

Incumbent: Laura Richardson (D)

Current District:  Obama 80; McCain 19

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 37% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  most of Long Beach, and part of Orange Co. – Westminster, Cypress, La Palma

District 38:  

Incumbent: Grace Napolitano (D)

Current District:  Obama 71; McCain 27

Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 29

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 77% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Norwalk, Whittier, La Mirada, Santa Fe Springs, Montebello, Pico Rivera, East LA, and part of City of Los Angeles

District 39:  

Incumbent: Linda Sánchez (D)

Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 54% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Lakewood, Cerritos, Paramount, Lynwood and South Gate, and part of Orange Co. – Buena Park, La Habra and parts of Fullerton and Anaheim

District 40:  

Incumbent: Ed Royce (R)*

Current District:  Obama 47; McCain 51

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 50%+ hispanic

Includes part of San Bernardino Co. – Chino, Chino Hills, Montclair, Upland, Rancho Cucamonga, and part of Los Angeles Co. – Pomona, La Puente

* District is completely “relocated” from Orange County to part of San Bernardino and Los Angeles Counties

District 41:  

Incumbent: Jerry Lewis (R)

Current District:  Obama 44; McCain 54

Proposed District:  Obama 39; McCain 59

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 62% white

Includes central and eastern parts of San Bernardino Co. (Apple Valley, Yucca Valley, Twentynine Palms, Needles) and part of Riverside Co. (Calimesa, Norco, Murrieta, Temecula, Canyon Lake)

District 42:  

Incumbent: Gary Miller (R)

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 40; McCain 58

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 69% white

Includes part of Orange Co. – San Juan Capistrano, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, Lake Forest, Vila Park, Yorba Linda, Brea, and parts of San Clemente, Fullerton, Anaheim and Orange

District 43:  

Incumbent: Joe Baca (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 51% hispanic

Includes part of San Bernardino Co. – City of San Bernardino, Colton, Rialto, Highland, Loma Linda, Redlands, Big Bear Lake and part of Yucaipa

District 44:  

Incumbent: Ken Calvert (R)

Current District:  Obama 50; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 51% hispanic

Includes part of Riverside Co. – City of Riverside, Moreno Valley and part of Corona

District 45:  

Incumbent: Mary Bono (R)

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 54% hispanic

Includes part of Riverside Co. – Perris, Lake Elsinore, Palm Springs, Desert Hot Springs, Cathedral City, Indio, Coachella, Blythe, Banning, Beaumont and San Jacinto

District 46:  

Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher (R)

Current District:  Obama 48; McCain 50

Proposed District:  Obama 57; McCain 41

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 42% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Compton and parts of Carson and City of Los Angeles, and part of Orange Co. – Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley and Newport Beach

District 47:  

Incumbent: Loretta Sanchez (D)

Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 38

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 59% hispanic

Includes part of Orange Co. – parts of Santa Ana, Orange, Tustin, Garden Grove, Stanton and Anaheim

District 48:  

Incumbent: John Campbell (R)

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 47% white

Includes part of Orange Co. – Irvine, Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Hills, Laguna Woods, Aliso Viejo, Dana Point, and parts of Santa Ana and San Clemente

District 49:

Incumbent: Darrell Issa (R)

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 40

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 61% white

Includes part of San Diego County – Camp Pendleton, Oceanside, Vista, Carlsbad, Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar and part of San Diego (La Jolla, Mission Beach, Ocean Beach, UCSD area, Hillcrest)

District 50:  

Incumbent: Brian Bilbray (R)

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 40

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 43% white

Includes part of San Diego County – San Marcos, Escondido, and part of City of San Diego

District 51:  

Incumbent: Bob Filner (D)

Current District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 56% hispanic

Includes all of Imperial Co., and part of San Diego County – southern part of San Diego, Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, El Cajon

District 52:  

Incumbent: Duncan Hunter (R)

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 37; McCain 61

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 74% white

Includes part of San Diego County – Poway, Santee, and part of Riverside Co. – Hemet, Indian Wells, Palm Desert

District 53:  

Incumbent: Susan Davis (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 51% white

Includes part of San Diego County – part of City of San Diego, Coronado, Lemon Grove, La Mesa

Here comes your Weekly Open Thread.

Even in Colorado this is not going to work….

http://www.janenortonforcolora… has a new front page with a new video and this language

Drilling Toward Independence

“I always scratch my head when liberals say you can’t drill your way to greater energy independence. More drilling means more homegrown energy, and more homegrown energy means we’re less reliant on thugs like Chavez, Ahmadinejad, and Putin to power our homes, our cars, and our industry.”

As your US Senator, I will fight for a robust energy program in the Rocky Mountain West as part of a broader national energy program. We must:

Drill the Roan Plateau

Drill in ANWR

Expand oil, natural gas, and coal production on federal lands

Continue offshore drilling programs

Fight Cap and Trade  

• CO-Sen: Both Jane Norton and Ken Buck found something else to do when Michael Steele showed up in town yesterday, eager to take his off the hook, technically avant-garde message to Colorado’s urban-suburban hip-hop settings. Seems like Steele has a bad case of the cooties in the wake of his Afghanistan comments.  Buck instead went to hang with the decidedly non-hip-hop Tom Tancredo at a rally yesterday instead, where Tancredo called Barack Obama the “greatest threat to the United States today.” Buck subsequently had to distance himself from Tancredo’s comments via conference call… I’m wondering if Buck would have rather appeared with Michael Steele after all.

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle rolled out her campaign’s first ad; perhaps wisely, she isn’t in it at all, other than a voiceover doing the required disclaimer at the end. Instead, it’s just a narration-free black-and-white montage of the economic woe that, of course, Harry Reid caused. Which completely contradicts her own message that she’s touted in public appearances, which is that it’s not a Senator’s job to create jobs, and that it was in fact a bad thing for Harry Reid to intervene to save 22,000 jobs at a local construction project. To top all that off, Angle said Wednesday that Reid’s attempts to fight back on the jobs issue were an attempt to “hit the girl.” (UPDATE: Jon Ralston uncovers that Angle’s ad buy was for a whopping total of $5K. Add this one to the growing pile of bullshit ad buys aimed at getting free media.)

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher’s fundraising numbers are out. The good news is: he finally had a seven-digit quarter, pulling in at least $1 million last quarter and giving him “more than” $1 million CoH. The bad news is: that’s less than half what Rob Portman raised last quarter, and it’s a more than 8:1 CoH advantage for Portman.

• AL-Gov: Two different polls are out in the Republican runoff in Alabama, and they paint very different pictures. One is from GOP pollster Baselice, working on behalf of a group called Public Strategy Associates. They give Robert Bentley a 53-33 lead over Bradley Byrne. The other is an internal from the Byrne camp; they’re claiming a four-point lead, although without any details about topline numbers or even the pollster. They’re also claiming that Byrne has gained 7 points in the last week while Bentley has lost 7, presumably because of Byrne’s attacks on Bentley’s friendliness with the Alabama Education Association, the teachers’ union that has particularly had it in for Byrne. Byrne also rolled out endorsements from two of Alabama’s sitting House members, Spencer Bachus and Jo Bonner.

• CA-Gov: Seems like Jerry Brown took a look at the internals at the latest Field Poll and realized he’d better do something about his standing among Latino voters. He held a press conference yesterday with 14 Latino leaders, criticizing the sincerity of Meg Whitman’s softening of her immigration stance since the GOP primary. Xavier Becerra pointed out that “Jerry Brown broke bread with Cesar Chavez. His opponent breaks bread with Pete Wilson.” (Wilson, of course, was the driving force behind Prop 187 last decade.)

• CO-Gov: Dan Maes, the insurgent candidate in the GOP primary, is pretty much out of gas. He raised all of $33K last quarter, with $23K CoH. That cash on hand is somewhat less than the $27K fine he’s going to have to pay for various campaign finance violations he’s committed.

• GA-Gov: SurveyUSA has more polls of the fast-approaching gubernatorial primaries. They find John Oxendine at 32 and Karen Handel at 23, meaning they’re likely to advance to a GOP runoff. Nathan Deal and Eric Johnson are lagging at 12, with Ray McBerry at 5. On the Democratic side, Roy Barnes is at 56, which would let him avoid a runoff against Thurbert Baker (who’s at 18). Dubose Porter and David Poythress languish at 6 and 5, respectively. (SUSA also has Dem Senate and downballot numbers, if you click the link.) PPP (pdf) is also out with a poll, although this is one of their rare internals that makes it to the public view; it’s on behalf of J.C. Cole, a Thurbert Baker backer. They find Barnes just under the runoff mark: 49 Barnes, 19 Baker, 4 Porter, and 3 Poythress.

• MA-Gov: The money race in Massachusetts is a pretty close three-way race, although Tim Cahill, corresponding with his slide in the polls, has also lost his financial edge. GOPer Charlie Baker has the most cash on hand with $2.97 million, with Cahill at $2.95 million. Dem incumbent Deval Patrick has the least, $2.37 million, but seems to be expecting some help from the state Dem party, which has a big CoH edge over the state GOP.

• NE-Gov: The Nebraska governor’s race is turning into a bit of Democratic debacle, as the departure of Mark Lakers has left Dems looking high and low for someone willing to take his place at this late date. Ben Nelson says someone’s likely to emerge before the July 23-25 state convention, although he didn’t volunteer any particular names.

• TN-Gov: Knoxville mayor (and oil baron) Bill Haslam seems on track to be Tennessee’s next governor, according to a poll for local TV affiliate WSMV. (The poll was conducted by Crawford, Johnson, and Northcott, a firm I’ve never heard of.) The free-spending Haslam leads the GOP primary in the open seat race at 32, with Rep. Zach Wamp at 21 and Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey at 11. Haslam also performs the best against Mike McWherter, the only Dem left in the hunt. Haslam wins 60-34, while Wamp wins 59-35 and Ramsey wins 51-41.

• FL-22: Allen West continues to post gaudy fundraising numbers; he says he raised $1.4 million in the last quarter, likely to be the biggest total for any Republican House challenger. West, of course, is a client of BaseConnect, and a lot of that money gets churned through for direct-mail expenses, but he is steadily expanded his cash on hand, claiming to be up to $2.2 million. Rep. Ron Klein had $2.6 million CoH at the end of the previous quarter in March.

• GA-08: Here’s a fundraising success for a late entrant for the GOP: state Rep. Austin Scott, who bailed out of the gubernatorial primary to run an uphill fight against Democratic incumbent Rep. Jim Marshall, outraised Marshall last quarter. Scott raised $251K last quarter (including $56K of his own money), leaving him with $213K CoH. Marshall raised $165K, but has $981K in his war chest.

• MI-03: In case there was any doubt who the DeVos family (the power behind the Republican throne in western Michigan) was backing, they made it explicit today. Dick DeVos announced his support for state Rep. Justin Amash in the GOP primary to succeed retiring Vern Ehlers.

• MN-01: One more surprise GOP fundraising score to report: state Rep. Randy Demmer had a good quarter, pulling in $303K, leaving him with $251K. Democratic Rep. Tim Walz hasn’t released numbers, but had $856K CoH banked last quarter.

• NY-23: Scozzafava endorses Bill Owens! No, it’s not quite what you think. It’s Tom Scozzafava (apparently absolutely no relation to special election opponent-turned-endorser Dede Scozzafava), the Supervisor of the town of Moriah. Owens also got some probably more significant good news on Tuesday: Don Kasprzak, the Republican mayor of Plattsburgh, offered some public praise of Owens and, while stopping short of endorsing him, said that he couldn’t vote for either Doug Hoffman or Matt Doheny.

• OH-12: With Rep. Pat Tiberi having dropped an internal poll yesterday showing him dominating Democratic challenger Paula Brooks, today it was Brooks’ turn. She offered up an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, which also showed her losing, but by a much smaller margin. The poll sees the race at 48-36 in favor of Tiberi, with 10% going to Libertarian candidate Travis Irvine.

• CA-Init (pdf): The Field Poll also provided numbers for four initiatives that are likely to be on the ballot in November. Like several other pollsters, they see a close race for Prop 19, which proposes to legalize marijuana: it’s failing 44-48. Perhaps the most significant race, though, is Prop 25, which would solve the Sacramento gridlock by allowing passage of a budget by a mere majority vote; support for Prop 25 is very broad, at 65-20, with even Republicans favoring passage. Voters don’t support Prop 23, a utilities-funded push to overturn the state’s greenhouse gases emissions law; it’s failing 36-48. Finally, there’s 42-32 support for Prop 18, a bond to pay for water supply improvements.

• Fundraising: A couple more fundraising tidbits from the Fix: Democratic GA-Gov candidate Roy Barnes raised $1.3 million last quarter, while GOPer Nathan Deal raised $570K. And in NH-Sen, Bill Binnie reported raising $550K, but bear in mind he can write himself checks as need be.

• Rasmussen:

•  IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%, Bill Brady (R) 43%

•  SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 44%, Kristi Noem (R) 49%

There’s been a lot of movement in the last 24 hours in West Virginia. To start with, yesterday afternoon, Democratic AG Darrell McGraw announced that Gov. Joe Manchin has the authority to call for a special election to be held this year.

“Since a general election is already scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2010, it is suggested that a special primary election be held at a time which maximizes the opportunity for all potential candidates to prepare for both the special election and the general election, and for all voters, including those in the Armed Services, to participate and have their voices heard,” McGraw wrote, according to the Charleston Daily Mail.

There’s been some confusion as to what exact format the election would take, and for now, it sounds like no one is quite sure. McGraw’s statement makes it sound like there should be a primary election held when convenient prior to Nov. 2, but that’s not made entirely clear. The Fix’s Aaron Blake says that the Manchin camp would like to have only one election, though, and have a special open primary that coincides with the general election where all candidates run in one pool (shades of HI-01). The superficial rationale, of course, would be saving money on not running two elections. But it could also help Manchin out a lot, if he’s the only Dem candidate and the Republican vote is split.

And Manchin is sounding like his candidacy is near-definite; he told Ben Smith today that he’ll announce his intentions formally on Monday but said that his candidacy is “highly likely” (which is also how he phrased it on MSNBC this morning). He also said that the only questions left at this point are “procedural,” like ensuring a smooth transition for the person who takes over as Governor. Manchin’s counsel says that there’s no clear sense from the law of when or how to hold the election, but that will be resolved in the legislative special session that Manchin will soon call.

Manchin, talking about gubernatorial succession, seems to be acting like his election to the Senate is already a done deal; is he being overconfident? Yesterday Nate Silver foresaw a close race, although that was based on West Virginia’s demographics and reddening trend without any poll data.

Since then, Rasmussen leaped into the breach, offering a snap poll as they often do. Rasmussen’s numbers — and I rarely get the chance to say this — should give Democrats a good deal of confidence. Manchin defeats his strongest possible GOP rival, Rep. Shelly Moore Capito, by a 53-39 margin, while he beats former SoS Betty Ireland 65-26. Most impressively, he has a 77/23 approval rating, which has to make him the most popular Governor in the nation.

Even before Manchin started signaling his clear intent to run today, and before Rasmussen dropped its abandon-all-hope-ye-GOPers poll, there were questions yesterday about who the Republican candidate would be, and whether there was a Plan B if Capito didn’t run. (There’s also legal uncertainty as to whether Capito could run in both the special and in her already-scheduled election to hold WV-02 at the same time, which would weigh heavily on her decision whether or not to run. And Capito’s calculations would have to factor in whether she might have a better shot at Manchin again in the regularly-scheduled 2012 election, when she’d have a longer time to ramp up a campaign and when Obama’s top-of-ticket presence might be an anchor on Manchin… and also the possibility of whether Jay Rockefeller might retire in 2014, giving her a good shot at an open seat.)

In the absence of Capito or Ireland, other names that have gotten floated include businessman John Raese, who spent a large amount of his own money en route to losing badly to Robert Byrd in 2006, former state Sen. Steve Harrison, state Sen. Mike Hall, and Bob Adams, the director of something called the League of American Voters and a losing candidate for state Treasurer in 2004.

UPDATE: Someone has slipped Reid Wilson the short list for seatwarmers that Joe Manchin is considering for appointment to the Senate for the next half a year. Some of the names are familiar, but there are a few surprises. The list is: Anne Barth (former Byrd state director, and ’08 loser in WV-02 to Capito), Gaston Caperton (the former Gov. and current College Board Pres. who previously said he wasn’t interested), Nick Casey (former state party chair, now up for a federal judgeship), Carte Goodwin (Manchin’s former general counsel), Larry Puccio (current state party chair and former Manchin CoS), and Bob Wise (9-term ex-Rep. and one-term ex-Gov., who didn’t seek re-election after a sex scandal). Bear in mind that whoever the replacement is, that person will be the vote to get unemployment benefits extended, so there’s no doubt a sense of urgency behind picking someone.

This is the final part of three posts analyzing the congressional districts President Barack Obama underperformed in. It will focus on the movement in Appalachia and the South Central United States. The previous parts can be found starting here.



The 2010 Midterms

Let’s take one last look at those districts in which Mr. Obama did worse than Senator John Kerry:

One sees again, as clear as ever, the diagonal pattern of Republican movement in South Central America and the Appalachians.

These districts differ from the northeastern and Florida-based regions examined in the previous post. Unlike those congressional districts, the districts in South Central and Appalachia vote strongly Republican.

More below.

Many of them were never much loyal to the Democrats in the first place; those that did vote Democratic generally stopped doing so after President Bill Clinton left the ticket.

Nevertheless, a number of these South Central and Appalachian districts are still represented by Democratic congressmen. This is readily apparent if one looks at a list of congressional districts in which Mr. Obama underperformed Mr. Kerry:

There are a surprisingly high number of Democrats on this list.  As one might expect, the Democratic-voting districts all elect Democrats (except, ironically, for the most Democratic one). Yet more than half of the Republican-voting districts on the list also are represented by Democrats.

That is actually an amazing statistic. These are places in Appalachia and South Central which are already voting Republican, which are fast becoming even more Republican, and which are electing Democratic congressmen.

For Democrats, congressional districts like these constitute ticking time bombs. They will be the first to fall in a Republican wave. There is literally no way the party can continue holding the majority of seats in Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

And 2010 looks like a Republican wave year. Democratic-controlled districts in Appalachia and South Central are in deep trouble already:

In congressional districts that vote Republican and are becoming Republican, only half the Democratic incumbents are running again. The open seats will likely elect Republican representatives this fall, even in the best forseeable Democratic environment.

There is good news, however, judging from the PA-12 election results. On May 18th Pennsylvania held a special election for a new representative of the 12th congressional district, after incumbent John Murtha’s death:

Like many Democratic representatives in South Central and Appalachia, Mr. Murtha had constituted a relic of an earlier time – when southwest Pennsylvania voted Democratic. His continued re-elections were due to his personal popularity and the power of incumbency, even as his district moved more and more Republican.

It was a minor miracle that Democratic candidate Mark Critz won. Until then, no Democratic candidate had ever done better than Mr. Obama since his election. Mr. Critz did just that, given that the president lost PA-12 (the only seat in the nation to support Kerry and the McCain). In a district with double-digit disapproval ratings of Mr. Obama, this constituted an arduous task.

It is the same task that awaits more than a dozen Democrats in Appalachia and South Central America come November 2010.

Hey, have you ever noticed that if you dressed Scott Rasmussen in Tea Party garb, he’d look exactly like the guy on the Quaker Oats box?

On a more serious note, we’re sad to say this is our final volume of Rasmussen Reports, You Decide. Nobody here enjoys the mind-numbing, Hercules-cleaning-the-stables task of putting them together (and that only looks to get worse, with the demoralizing news that they plan to further up their output as election season progresses). But rather than jettisoning Rasmussen entirely (tempting as it may be), we’re just going to start doing what Steve Singiser at Daily Kos already wisely does with “Ras-A-Poll-Ooza,” which is to eat the elephant in bite-sized chunks and keep each day’s Rasmussen polls in their own little containment pool at the end of each day’s digest. If you’re even more obsessive than us, and you absolutely need to know trendlines, sample dates, the breakdown between “Some Other” and “Not Sure,” or MoEs, well, you probably already know where Pollster.com is.

• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 35%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 53%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 15%, Marco Rubio (R) 36%, Charlie Crist (I) 34%

• FL-Sen: Jeff Greene (D) 18%, Marco Rubio (R) 37%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%

• HI-Gov: Neil Abercrombie (D) 58%, Duke Aiona (R) 32%

• HI-Gov: Mufi Hannemann (D) 52%, Duke Aiona (R) 30%

• HI-Gov: Neil Abercrombie (D) 59%, John Carroll (R) 30%

• HI-Sen: Dan Inouye (D-inc) 68%, John Roco (R) 20%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 39%

• KS-Gov: Tom Holland (D) 31%, Sam Brownback (R) 59%

• KS-Sen: David Haley (D) 25%, Jerry Moran (R) 60%

• KS-Sen: Lisa Johnston (D) 25%, Jerry Moran (R) 61%

• KS-Sen: Charles Schollenberger (D) 25%, Jerry Moran (R) 59%

• KS-Sen: Robert Conroy (D) 23%, Jerry Moran (R) 60%

• KS-Sen: David Haley (D) 27%, Todd Tiahrt (R) 58%

• KS-Sen: Lisa Johnston (D) 29%, Todd Tiahrt (R) 57%

• KS-Sen: Charles Schollenberger (D) 30%, Todd Tiahrt (R) 55%

• KS-Sen: Robert Conroy (D) 29%, Todd Tiahrt (R) 53%

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 42%, Rand Paul (R) 49%

• LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon (D) 36%, David Vitter (R-inc) 52%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 48%

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall (D) 37%, Richard Burr (R) 52%

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Rick Lazio (R) 28%

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 25%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 40%, John Kasich 47%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 39%, Rob Portman (R) 43%

• OK-Gov: Drew Edmondson (D) 39%, Mary Fallin (R) 48%

• OK-Gov: Drew Edmondson (D) 44%, Robert Hubbard (R) 31%

• OK-Gov: Drew Edmondson (D) 46%, Randy Brogden (R) 35%

• OK-Gov: Drew Edmondson (D) 45%, Roger Jackson (R) 29%

• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 32%, Mary Fallin (R) 55%

• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 38%, Randy Brogden (R) 47%

• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 38%, Robert Hubbard (R) 43%

• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 40%, Roger Jackson (R) 42%

• OK-Sen: Mark Myles (D) 27%, Tom Coburn (R-inc) 62%

• OK-Sen: Jim Rogers (D) 26%, Tom Coburn (R-inc) 65%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 39%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%

• UT-Gov: Peter Corroon (D) 31%, Gary Herbert (R-inc) 58%

• WY-Gov: Mike Massie (D) 22%, Matt Mead (R) 49%

• WY-Gov: Leslie Peterson (D) 23%, Rita Meyer (R) 51%

• WY-Gov: Leslie Peterson (D) 28%, Colin Simpson (R) 44%

• WY-Gov: Leslie Peterson (D) 27%, Ron Micheli (R) 47%

• WY-Gov: Pete Gosar (D) 23%, Matt Mead (R) 51%

• WY-Gov: Pete Gosar (D) 23%, Rita Meyer (R) 52%

• WY-Gov: Pete Gosar (D) 24%, Colin Simpson (R) 51%

• WY-Gov: Pete Gosar (D) 28%, Ron Micheli (R) 46%

• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski, whose primary challenge from Some Dude got much more interesting when Sarah Palin endorsed said Dude (Joe Miller), won’t be able to count on appointed Gov. Sean Parnell’s explicit backing in the primary. When pressed on the issue at a gubernatorial debate last night, Parnell “visibly squirmed” before saying that he would support whoever wins the primary.

• LA-Sen: I hope your last few days are going better for you than David Vitter’s last few days: yesterday, he had to face a phalanx of reporters interested in the issue of Brent Furer’s continued presence on Vitter’s staff despite his criminal record. Vitter said that was old news, that Furer had been disciplined two years ago, and moreover that Furer hadn’t been assigned to handle women’s issues. Now it’s come out that several legislative guide books, in fact, do list Furer as Vitter’s point man on women’s issues. (TPM’s link has video of Vitter in front of reporters. Think back to the visuals of his post-prostitution-problem press conference, and note again that Vitter is using his wife literally as a human shield.)

• NV-Sen: Ah, Sharron Angle… the gift that just keeps on giving, day after day. Everyone is abuzz that she called the BP oil-spill escrow account a “slush fund,” apparently having learned nothing from Joe Barton getting raked over the coals for saying the same thing (to say nothing of the fact that she threw a dogwhistle reference to Saul Alinsky in there for her ultra-right-wing fans, completely apropos of nothing). After a brief firestorm, Angle is already walking back the “slush fund” comment. And “slush fund” wasn’t even the most outrageous Angle quote that came out today, as it was came out that when she successfully counseled a young girl impregnated after being raped by her father against getting an abortion, she referred to that as turning “a lemon situation into lemonade.” Well, if the GOP was thinking it was OK to let Sharron Angle out of whatever undisclosed bunker they’ve been keeping her in (and Rand Paul and Mark Kirk), it looks like it’s back to the bunker for a few more weeks.

• NY-Sen-B: David Malpass gave some clarification to his comments yesterday that he’d like to be on Carl Paladino’s Taxpayer’s line in November: he won’t seek the line if he isn’t also the GOP nominee, in order to not be a spoiler for the Republican candidate. Bad news for fans of cat fud.

• OH-Sen: Despite Lee Fisher’s fairly consistent if small lead in the polls in this race, there are almost nine million big reasons to be pessimistic about this race, and that’s Rob Portman’s war chest. Portman raised $2.6 million in the second quarter, leaving him with $8.8 million cash on hand.

• PA-Sen: Pat Toomey is out with five (5!) new TV ads, hammering on government spending. His camp says the ads will run “statewide” and for an “indefinite” period of time, but… and you can probably guess what I’m going to say next… no word on the size of the buy.

• GA-Gov: If John Oxendine can pull out a Republican primary victory despite his seeming slide in the polls, his money will have a lot to do with it: he raised $850K in the last two months and is currently sitting on $1.83 million CoH (tops among GOPers, but way behind Dem Roy Barnes’ $4 million). Meanwhile, Nathan Deal, sinking into 3rd place, has been brainstorming about what or who Republican base voters really seem to hate these days, and apparently he’s settled on immigrants, as he’s now loudly touting his plans to duplicate Arizona’s anti-illegal immigrant law in Georgia.

• KY-Gov: PPP takes an advance look at the Kentucky gubernatorial race in 2011, finding that incumbent Dem Steve Beshear (elected easily against hapless Ernie Fletcher in 2007) has a tough re-election fight ahead of him. Beshear (with 38/35 approval) leads Trey Grayson 41-38, but trails Agriculture Comm. Richie Farmer 40-39.

• SC-Gov: The South Carolina Chamber of Commerce is pointedly sticking with its endorsement of Democratic nominee Vincent Sheheen, despite some carping from its internal ranks that they should have endorsed Nikki Haley. The Chamber is framing the issue as that the Governor needs to actually cooperate with the (GOP-controlled) legislature to get things done, something that Mark Sanford didn’t do and that they don’t see Haley changing. The Haley campaign tried playing the TARP card against the Chamber, saying that they’re “a big fan of bailouts and corporate welfare.”

• TX-Gov: Despite increasing evidence of links between the Greens’ petition drive and the Texas GOP’s financial kingpins, the Texas Dems seem to sense they aren’t going to get any further on their efforts to kick the Greens off the ballot (having run into an obstacle in the form of the GOP-owned Texas Supreme Court). They dropped their challenge to the Greens staying on the ballot, which clears the way Green candidate Deb Shafto to appear on the gubernatorial ballot to give the shafto to Bill White. (They’re keeping the case alive at the district court level in an effort to get civil penalties imposed, though.)

• OH-03: I don’t know how many other states do this instead of allowing selection by party bosses, but Ohio is poised to have an unusual “special primary” in the 3rd, on Tuesday, July 13. This was brought about when Mark MacNealy, the Democratic nominee in the 3rd (to go against Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Turner), dropped out of the race post-primary. This race is on absolutely nobody’s radar (although it’s a swing district, so it could be interesting with a top-tier candidate), so I can’t say we’ll be burning the midnight oil liveblogging Tuesday’s contest.

• OH-12: This is a swing district (D+1) with a top-tier Democratic challenger, so the DCCC has been right to tout this as one of our few legitimate offense opportunities. This just may not be the right year, though, if a new internal poll for Rep. Pat Tiberi (from the ubiquitous POS) is to be believed: he leads Dem Franklin Co. Commisioner Paula Brooks by a gaudy 53-28 margin.

• WI-07: With Sean Duffy having reported strong fundraising numbers yesterday, it’s good to see that state Sen. Julie Lassa, who’s trying to hold this seat after David Obey’s late retirement announcement, is raking in the money too. She raised $310K in just six weeks.

• WV-01: After Mike Oliverio walked back his earlier statements from the primary where he was agnostic about voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker, it seems like Oliverio and the Democratic leadership have kissed and made up, sensing a good opportunity for a Democratic hold here. Steny Hoyer, Jim Clyburn, and Chris Van Hollen have all cut big checks for Oliverio (although, perhaps pointedly, Pelosi herself has not). Oliverio also announced having raised $300K just during the month of June. Given Alan Mollohan’s seeming allergy to fundraising, we may have given ourselves an electoral upgrade here (though definitely not an ideological one).

Field Poll (pdf) (6/22-7/5, likely voters, 3/9-15 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 47 (44)

Carly Fiorina (R): 44 (45)

Undecided: 9 (11)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Barbara Boxer has a 3-point lead in the Field Poll, their first look at the Senate general election in three months; while that’s not a number that should fill people with great confidence, it’s an improvement from three months ago, when Boxer led by 1. (By the way, can someone please familiarize the crew at Talking Points Memo with the concept of “trendlines?” For the second straight day, they’ve mischaracterized the Field Poll’s results, with a teaser reading “Tightening?” and a headline of “Fiorina Closing in on Boxer.”)

The number that pundits seem to be focusing on is that Boxer’s approval has gone negative for the first time, at 42/48 among LVs and 42/43 among RVs. That is indeed troubling, but there’s something of a disconnect between that and the toplines, where apparently 5% of the population doesn’t approve yet plans to vote for her anyway (presumably because they dislike Fiorina even more?).

Interestingly, compared with the Governor’s race, Boxer has the opposite strengths as Jerry Brown: Boxer has a broad lead among Latinos, 55-32, and among the 18-39 set, 52-33. The 65+ segment are the ones keeping Fiorina in this race, backing Fiorina 50-46. A lot of that may have to do with the way that Meg Whitman is campaigning, based on her use of social media to reach the young’uns and Spanish-language media to reach Latinos (including rollout today of a billboard advertising blitz touting her opposition to not only Arizona’s immigration law but even her 16-years-too-late opposition to Prop 187).

At any rate, Brown and Boxer’s success seems increasingly interlinked (especially since, as many pundits are pointing out today, this is Boxer’s first election where she doesn’t have strong top-of-the-ticket coattails… and, yes, for that analysis to work, that means that Gray Davis was actually strong in 1998). Brown needs to reach out to traditional Democratic constituencies, while Boxer mostly needs those constituencies that already support her to actually show up, which would be helped if Brown could generate some more excitement.