Month: July 2010

As we rapidly approach the July 15th filing deadline here in New York, the biggest hurdle I find for our candidates is that not enough of New York’s voters and activists know who they are, the dynamics of the race, or how great a chance we have in 2010 to pick up more seats and secure our fragile majority in the State Senate.  

Despite all the attention lavished on Cuomo, the AG race, or the budget, the State Senate looks to be where the action is in New York politics this year, and news for Democrats so far is good.  Voter registration is trending in our favor, poll after poll shows voter dissatisfaction is directed primarily at GOP incumbents, and a recent story in The Capitol revealed the state SRCC to be in disarray.

In short, this could be a very good year for Democratic challengers hoping to unseat Republican State Senators.

But to win in November, these candidates need resources.  They need volunteers to knock on doors and make phone calls, and money to hire staff, print lit, and cut ads.  Before any of that can be achieved though, politically engaged New Yorkers need to know who are candidates are, and why they are running.  

So I’ve compiled a list of 15 campaigns that the New York Senate Dems are supporting in 2010.  I hope the community will take the time to get to know these candidates, and if you like what you read, donate a few dollars before we hit the filing deadline (July 11 is the last day to give), or visit their websites and sign up for their email updates.  

I know many people are frustrated with Albany, but if we want to see progress – on ethics reform, marriage equality, green jobs and a host of other issues – the first step is expanding the Democratic majority and evicting Republican Senators standing in the way of progress.  The campaigns below could be the votes we need to push these issues through the chamber an onto the Governor’s desk.

NEW YORK SENATE DEMS CLASS OF 2010

Regina Calcaterra (Suffolk County) After growing up in Suffolk County in poverty and foster care with her four siblings, Regina Calcaterra worked hard to put herself through college and law school. As a corporate fraud lawyer, she successfully represented the pension funds of police, firefighters, and teachers, all of which suffered drastic losses due to Wall Street fraud.

While working for the NYC Comptroller, Regina strengthened the enforcement of labor laws, and advocated for laws that increased the assets of state pension funds and the city treasury while decreasing taxpayer contributions. She is a strong proponent of government reform and fiscal responsibility, including toughening of accounting standards throughout New York agencies and authorities, rescission of numerous taxes and fees, and fair share of government services for Eastern Long Island.

Her opponent is 34-year incumbent Ken LaValle.  The district (SD-1)has a Republican enrollment advantage, but it is rapidly trending Democratic and Democrats have done well up and down the ticket in recent elections.

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Dave Mejias (Nassau County)  David Mejias has dedicated his life to fighting for the people of Nassau County. In 2003, Mejias was elected to the Nassau County legislature where he voted for budgets that resulted in a no tax increases for residents and improved bond ratings for the county. He was reelected to the legislature in 2005, and in 2006 he ran for Congress against Peter King. Despite being defeated, Mejias gave Peter King the toughest challenge since King’s first election in 1992. As a life-long resident of Nassau County, Mejias understands that taxpayers on Long Island want an affordable place to call home and a government that works. As Senator, Mejias will continue his service to Nassau and bring a fresh, strong voice to Albany.

Dave’s opponent is 21-year incumbent Kemp Hannon. The district (SD-6) flipped from a GOP to Democratic registration advantage in 2009, though down-ballot Republicans still outperformed Democrats in recent years.

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Carol Gordon (Nassau, Suffolk Counties) As a Mental Health Clinic Manager and Patient Advocate at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Carol Gordon served our veterans for 25 years. In this role, Carol developed a strong commitment to American Veterans and initiated sustainable support programs, including championing an effort to have the first women veterans admitted to an all male unit. She was active on the Ethics, Family Council, and various veterans committees, and also served as manager of the Federal Women’s Program for 22 Years. In 2008, Carol became a member of the National Organization of Women and the Chairperson of the mentoring and education committee for Urban Financial Services Coalition of Long Island, an organization that promotes financial literacy.

Her opponent is 12-year incumbent Charles Fuschillo, and the district (SD-8) recently shifted from a GOP enrollment advantage to a slim Democratic advantage.

George Sava (Nassau County) George Sava has recognized the need for real leadership in Nassau County. After years of inaction by Dean Skelos, Sava is running for Senate to reverse the decades of tax-hikes that have led Nassau County to be one of the most highly taxed counties in the country. While maintaining his private law practice, Sava served in the military for over nine years. He is a veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, and in 2004 he was deployed to the Horn of Africa. A former Republican, Sava became disillusion with the GOP’s continual contradictions, tax-hikes and dysfunction. As a husband and the father of three young children residing in Woodmere, George is running for the families in Nassau County that are finding themselves priced out of Long Island.

His opponent is Republican Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos.  Like other Western Long Island districts, SD-9 recently flipped from a GOP to Democratic enrollment advantage.

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Tony Avella (Queens County) Tony Avella has dedicated his life to fighting for middle-class families. In 2001, Tony won election to the New York City Council in the 19th District – Northeast Queens and was reelected with an overwhelming majority in both the 2003 and 2005 elections. As a member of the City Council, Tony refused the “lulu;” an unethical and additional taxpayer funded salary increase in return for loyalty to council leadership instead of taxpayers. Tony fought against and subsequently refused the 25% City Council pay raise, which he considered unethical.  In 2008, Tony ran in the Democratic Mayoral primary in New York City against Bill Thompson, who has since endorsed Tony’s run for state senate.  

Fed up with the pay-to-play status quo and political special interests that have consumed Albany, Tony’s reputation as a staunch reformist will help to bring real change to Albany. A strong advocate for more reform and transparency in government, Tony will fight to transform the State Senate so that it works for the people once again.

Tony’s opponent is 38-year incumbent Frank Padavan.  The district is heavily Democratic and Padavan held onto his seat by only a few hundred votes in 2008 against a underfunded Democratic opponent.

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Mike Kaplowitz (Westchester, Putnam, Dutchess Counties) Mike Kaplowitz is a Westchester County Legislator and small business owner with a history of political independence and a record of smart fiscal management. As a county legislator, he saved over $110 million dollars in wasteful spending, and helped preserve Westchester County’s AAA bond rating, saving the county millions more in higher interest costs. As a Senator, Mike Kaplowitz will work to help small businesses, create jobs, fight to put caps on property taxes and to restore and strengthen the STAR program.

Kaplowitz is running for an open seat being vacated by Republican Vincent Leibell (SD-40). The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage, and his most likely opponent will be Tea Party candidate Greg Ball.

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Didi Barrett (Dutchess, Columbia Counties) Didi Barrett, a citizen candidate, has been a leader in the not-for-profit community for more than two decades. She is a board member of the North East Dutchess Fund and the Millbrook Education Foundation; she was the founder of Girls Inc of New York and is spearheading the development of the new Dutchess Girls Collaborative. She has served on the boards of the NY Women’s Foundation, the Women’s Campaign Fund, NARAL-NY, Planned Parenthood NY and the American Folk Art Museum. For the last two years, she has been the coordinator for her town’s Community Day.

As a State Senator, Didi Barrett will use her skills as a creative problem solver to bring jobs to the 41st District and alleviate property tax burdens for all New Yorkers. She will work to reform Albany’s dysfunctional culture.

Her opponent is 20-year incumbent Steve Saland.  The district (SD-41) has a Democratic enrollment advantage, but down ballot results have been mixed in recent elections.

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Joanne Yepsen (Saratoga, Rensselaer Counties) A Saratoga County Supervisor, Yepsen has helped keep Saratoga the lowest taxed county in the state of New York. She is committed to a zero-tolerance policy for party politics that get in the way of open, honest, efficient government. She has been re-elected County Supervisor three times on a proven record of integrity that focuses on the issues and needs of the individuals, families and businesses she represents.

Her opponent is Joe Bruno’s hand-picked successor in a district with the largest share of independent voters in the state.

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Susan Savage (Schenectady, Montgomery, Fulton, Saratoga Counties) Since she became Schenectady County Legislative Chair, Susan Savage restructured and streamlined county economic development. She helped bring $400 million and created 3300 jobs. Her efforts have led to a revitalized downtown Schenectady and expanded suburban industrial parks in Rotterdam and Glenville. Savage’s new perspective also fostered cooperation between county and local government, saving taxpayer money. Her approach and success have resulted in a resurgent economy that is a model in upstate New York. Now, Savage is ready to bring her new perspective and new ideas to Albany.

Her opponent is 34-year incumbent Hugh Farley, and the district (SD-44) has a shrinking Republican enrollment advantage.

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Kathleen Joy (Onondaga County) As Syracuse Common Counsel-At-Large and Majority Leader Kathleen Joy has a history of working across the aisle to get things done for her community is challenging.  As a Councilor, she has sponsored legislation to promote green infrastructure, building standards and open space, and she also initiated many of the housing programs embraced by the Syracuse City Administration and adopted by the Common Council.  In addition to her civic work, Joy is a real estate attorney and small business owner who has helped many first time homeowners fulfill their dreams of home ownership.

Her opponent is 18-year incumbent and self-described “GOP Pitbull” John DeFrancisco.  Democratic and GOP enrollment in the district (SD-50)is at parity, and Democrats have edged out some down-ballot wins in recent years.

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Pamela Mackesey (Streuben, Yates, Schuyler, Chemung, Tompkins Counties) Pam Mackesey is running for State Senate because she is fed up with high taxes, continual budget deficits, and the dysfunction in Albany. As a union organizer, she witnessed first-hand the struggles that everyday Shuyler, Steuben, and Chemung county residents face. As a single parent, she raised her daughter while working two, sometimes three jobs. Serving on Ithaca’s Common Council for 6 years and currently fulfilling her second term on the Tompkins County Legislature, Pam is prepared to go to Albany to work hard for her constituents and change the way business is done.

Her opponent is six-year incumbent George Winner.  The District (SD-53) has a sizeable Republican enrollment advantage.

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Mary Wilmot (Monroe County) Mary Wilmot is a life-long resident of Monroe County who brings a strong family background of service to District 55. As Regional Director for the Governor and the New York State Senate, Wilmot has extensive knowledge of the challenges Upstate New York faces. Drawing on her experience in this role, she understands the need to rein in excessive government spending and high taxes in order to preserve our local economies. As a mother and working parent, Wilmot is also committed to revitalizing our upstate community job markets. Mary will bring her passion for the environment to the Senate, championing investment in clean energy alternatives and energy conservation that will bring new industries to New York and create good jobs in Monroe County.

Her opponent is 14-year incumbent James Alesi.  The district (SD-55)has a slim Democratic enrollment advantage and Democrats have generally won up and down the ballot in recent years.

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Robin Wilt (Monroe County) Robin Wilt brings a long-standing commitment to progressive causes to Monroe County. As community activist, real estate agent, and small business owner, Wilt has seen first-hand the economic challenges facing Monroe County. In 2008, Robin co-founded the Genesee Valley chapter of Progressive Democrats of America, a grassroots organization dedicated to working inside and outside the Democratic Party to advance progressive causes. As Senator, she will work tirelessly for the people of Monroe and champion a return to good government, good jobs and good leadership.

Her opponent is seven-year incumbent Joe Robach.

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Cynthia Appleton (Erie, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario Counties)  Cynthia Appleton is a long-time community leader who is now stepping up to help us in Albany. She has spent 35 years in health care, the last 24 years as a critical care nurse. A lifelong resident of Wyoming County, her family roots in dairy farming and small business in western New York go back over a century. Now in her third term as a Village Trustee in Warsaw, Appleton has the experience to understand the impact Albany has on the local level and what needs to be done. A wife and mom, Appleton is also an award-winning director and actor in local theater and a member of Warsaw Grange 1088, the Warsaw Chamber of Commerce, and many other groups.

Cynthia is running for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Senator Dale Volker.

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Marc Coppola (Erie, Genesee Counties)  As a former State Senator in the 60th District, and former Majority Leader of the Common Council of the City of Buffalo, Marc Coppola brings a wealth of legislative experience to his campaign. As Majority Leader of the Common Council, he made tough decisions and cut the council budget by 33%. His campaign for State Senate is a direct response to Senator Ranzenhofer’s failure to look beyond partisanship and work to address the economic challenges facing New York, and the needs of residents of Erie and Genesee Counties.

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Disclosure – I am the New Media Director for the New York Senate Dems.

AZ-Sen: Props to the Hotline’s Sean Sullivan – and to the McCain campaign! Thanks to them, we know that the size of J.D. Hayworth’s first ad buy is an amazing $2,100 – and that “the ad will only run on Fox News in Tucson for the entire month of July.” This is incredibly pathetic, and it’s really too bad that this Matthew Lesko wannabe is going nowhere. A McCain flack gets in a good dig:

“That’s actually less than he spent on bumper stickers and lapel pins in the first month-and-a-half of his campaign. Sounds like Hayworth really could use some of that free government money he hawked in his infomercial.”

CO-Sen: Jane Norton says she raised $900K in Q2 and has $600K on hand. Her primary against Ken Buck (who hasn’t released any numbers yet) is on August 10th.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek raised another million bucks in Q2, essentially the same as his hauls in each of the previous two quarters. He has about $4 million on hand – which, as Shira Toeplitz points out, is less than the $5 mil that zillionaire asshole Jeff Greene has already spent on the race.

IN-Sen, MO-08: Speaking of bullshit ad buys, Politico’s Dave Catanese takes a good close look at several attempts to “earn media” by spending just a few bucks on the airwaves. Catanese’s piece includes that quip about Hayworth cited above, and also some digs at Brad Ellsworth (IN-Sen) and Tommy Sowers (MO-08) for their less-than-impressive ad time purchases. A consultant for Dan Coats says that Ellsworth’s buy is “very light and brief – not statewide – and about evenly split between cable and broadcast.” Meanwhile, Sowers bought “just $6,400 in air time, with most of that on cable television in two counties.”

SC-Sen: Just click the link. A mouth-agape must-read.

FL-Gov: Zillionaire whacko Rick Scott is challenging Florida’s version of the “millionaire’s amendment,” which provides matching funds to candidates whose opponents exceed a certain spending cap – in this case, a pretty portly $25 million. You may recall that Crazy Jack Davis successfully challenged the federal millionaire’s amendment before the Supreme Court in 2008, and that the SCOTUS blocked Arizona from distributing matching funds last month, so I’d give Scott decent odds of prevailing.

GA-10 (via email): Russell Edwards (no, I’d never heard of him either) is a Democrat running against Rep. Paul Broun in this dark red 61% McCain district. Still, he managed to raised just over $100K (from “nearly 500 individual donors”) in the second quarter, which seems pretty good for a guy running in these circumstances.

ID-01: Rep. Walt Minnick kicked some fundraising ass last quarter, pulling in $410K and leaving him with $1.1 mil on-hand. Anyone care to guess what GOPer Raul Labrador will show?

SC-02: The otherwise seemingly invisible Rob Miller will be in DC today, doing some relatively low-dollar fundraisers. But it’s not like the guy – who lucked into millions thanks to Joe Wilson’s undying outburst – is really hurting for money (he had $1.7 mil on hand as of Q1). No word on his Q2 haul as of yet, though.

For part 2, i stick to mainly text (sorry, no pretty graphics this time) to describe in detail how the Democratic trends in Orange County coincide with the overall social views on LGBT rights and Abortion.

While John McCain narrowly won Orange County, a so called bastion of conservatism (In fact, other than the Central Valley and parts of North Country, Orange County is indeed the only Republican turf left in the LA Area), support for Propositions 8 and 4 (A measure making underage pregnant women have to get permission seeking an Abortion) were higher at 58 and 55%, respectively. Why the stark difference between the two? Well, if you think it has to do with self-identified Republican voters, you’re half right, follow me below the fold.

While its a certainty that some Republicans and Independents crossed over to vote for Barack Obama, they were also instrumental in passing Props 4 and 8. But another extremely significant voting group helped as well: Hispanics. I was going to make a map (like the one with presidential results earlier) showing support/opposition to these ballot initatives, but its very easy to tell where support came from. Cities like Santa Ana, a “sanctuary” city home to a large (if not, massive) Hispanic population, voted overwhelmingly for not only Obama, but for Props 4 and 8.

First, let’s look at the so called “Blue” cities, that voted for Obama but for 4 and 8, the Yes/No results show how strongly the vote was for/against using the whole county as a baseline average:

Santa Ana:

Obama/McCain: 66/32

%Hispanic: 78%

Y/N Prop 4: 62/38 (+7 YES)

Y/N Prop 8: 62/38 (+4 YES)

Anaheim:

Obama/McCain: 51/47

%Hispanic: 48%

Y/N Prop 4: 59/41 (+4 YES)

Y/N Prop 8: 61/39 (+3 YES)

Buena Park:

Obama/McCain: 52/46

%Hispanic: 35%

Y/N Prop 4: 61/39 (+6 YES)

Y/N Prop 8: 62/38 (+4 YES)

These three cities were essential for President Obama’s near-victory here, but they weren’t the only surprises on election day. Next, i look at cities that voted for John McCain, but voted against or narrowly for these propositions.

Huntington Beach:

Obama/McCain: 45/53

Y/N Prop 4: 49/51 (-6 NO)

Y/N Prop 8: 53/47 (-5 YES)

Newport Beach:

Obama/McCain: 40/58

Y/N Prop 4: 47/53 (-8 NO)

Y/N Prop 8: 51/49 (-7 YES)

Dana Point:

Obama/McCain: 47/51

Y/N: 49/51 (-6 NO)

Y/N: 51/49 (-7 YES)

Newport Beach is strongly Republican, over 50% of its registered voters are Republicans, yet it opposed Proposition 4 (thus affirming a Pro-Choice stance) and barely supported Prop 8, all-the-while giving an 18-point victory to John McCain, while Huntington and Dana Point show similar, yet slightly more favorable results on both.

What does this all mean? Well, while Hispanics are generally pro-Democratic, notice extremely carefully that they aren’t pro-Liberal, and their Catholic views on Abortion and gay rights are in line with typical social conservatives. But, there is also a “country club” force in Orange County, the fiscal hawks who are in total agreement with the Tea Partiers, but are increasingly disillusioned with the Christian-right faction of the Republican Party. To sum it up: don’t just look on the surface to find your electoral answers for these voters, you have to dig further. It’s going to be interesting what the electorate will look like come 2012.

      The Alabama legislature has been known to be one of the conservative legislatures in the nation. The democrats have maintained control of both chambers continuously for over a century. That said while these democrats tend to be pretty conservative they still tend to be more populist and left leaning on certain economic issues compared to their Republican counterparts. For a state that has only voted for one democratic president(Carter) in the last 50 years, it is amazing to see the local level under so much democratic control

   It looks like it will be real battle to hold both of these chambers this year. For the longest time I thought it was a miracle that this legislature has remained in democratic hands for so long. That was until I noticed  that 60% of the democrats were first  elected over 15 years ago some as much 30 years ago in the senate. The house is slightly better with only 40% of the dems first elected over 15 years ago.

    The senate right now is barely on the Dem turf. A couple years ago back in 2007, when there were more dems in the chamber, there was a coalition of Republicans and disaffected Democrats to elect leadership that would be more favorable to Republican Gov. Riley. The coalition was barely defeated 18-17! But it showed that democrats could still muster an offensive against the republicans even in a state like Alabama. This was a decisive win for the interesting power play that had been going on in the state. The lieutenant governor serves as the president of the senate. When a republican was elected to this position the Democrats in the senate moved to transfer most of that power to their Senate president Pro-temp(who was elected by their caucus).

    In the following 2008 elections (plus the special elections) Republicans continued to eat away at the Dem majority in the senate. But Jim Folsom Jr., a democrat, was elected to the position of lieutenant governor. The democrats in the senate then tried to restore much of the power back to the Lieutenant Governor (I don’t know if they were successful).The move made sense as I’m sure there enough republicans and disaffected Democrats to elect a leadership more favorable to Governor Riley this time around.

Democrats chances of holding  the senate look bleak when you look at the numbers. Dems control the chamber 20-15.  A mere 3 seats are all it takes to switch control.  That’s not to say that the Dems can’t pick up seats.  Parker Griffith for example won seat by defeating an incumbent Republican 66-34 which was an impressive result in the south( Where Dems tend to bleed more seats than win them; on top of the fact that the few seats we win, tend to be open/or have an incumbent immersed in a scandal). Griffith then resigned t o run for congress and his senate seat reverted back to republican just as his affiliation would later in the house). There seems to be a theme of a popular conservative Dems  winning against republicans only to make the switch later down the road. The same thing happened with Dick Shelby( who was the last democrat to defeat a sitting republican senator). It will really come down to which incumbent democrats chose retire and the year they were first elected. The more recent they incumbent was first elected (such as mid 2000’s) the better the chance we can hold these seats.

   The state house looks slightly more favorable to hold. Looking at the numbers the Dems control the chamber with a 60-45 advantage. It takes 8 seat pick-up for the Republicans to win control of this chamber.  There are quite a few open seats for Democrats to defend including the current Speaker who was elected in the late 1970s.  The Tennessee state house also had similar margin of control prior to the 2008 election. So nothing can be taken for granted. This chamber is as most pundits have said tossup at best.

    Now why do I feel this chamber is important to control? Well mainly because the Alabama dems in the legislatures are the only thing standing between governor Riley/the republican party from having the trifecta in this state. These races along with the open governor’s race are what control the redistricting map for the next 10 years. If Bobby Bright does survive his tough race this year his next race will ultimately depend which party is in power in this state.

It ‘s only a matter of time when the republicans take over both chambers as many of the Dem legislators who were first elected in the 1970s finally retire (much like the NY Senate in reverse). A lot on who controls the chambers will depend on how well Ron sparks does in his governor’s race.  His coattails could be the difference between Republican controlled of the legislature and one controlled by the Democrats. Tensions have also been high in this chamber as just a couple years ago there was a little fist fight in the senate.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

This is my first real diary. Feel free to comment and let me know  if there are any discrepancies

• CO-Sen: Both Democratic candidates are hitting the TV airwaves, with Michael Bennet trying once again to introduce himself to his constituents with a feel-good bio spot, and Andrew Romanoff’s first ad playing up the anti-corruption, anti-Washington angle he’s been working. Over on the Republican side, where Ken Buck seems to be putting some distance between himself and Jane Norton, Buck got some useful backing from the Dick Army: he snagged a FreedomWorks endorsement. Norton’s 2005 support for TABOR-limiting Referendum C seems to have been a dealbreaker for the teabaggers.

• KY-Sen: PPP, fresh off its Rand Paul/Jack Conway poll yesterday, also has some approval numbers out for Mitch McConnell. It’s more evidence that the most dangerous job in America is party leader in the Senate. McConnell’s numbers are dwindling, and his backing of Trey Grayson over Paul in the GOP primary seems to have accelerated that: he’s down to 34/48, after having had favorables in the 40s in their previous polls, with almost all of his decline coming from Republicans. 49% of all respondents would like to see him lose his leadership role, with only 38% saying continue.

• NH-Sen: Big money for Kelly Ayotte this quarter: she raised $720K last quarter, her biggest quarter so far. No word on her CoH.

• NV-Sen: With their empty coffers suddenly replenished, the Karl Rove-led 527 American Crossroads decided to keep their anti-Harry Reid attack ad on the air in Nevada for the fourth straight week. They’ve spent nearly half a million airing the same ad.

• NY-Sen-B: Although the terrible disarray in the state GOP can’t be helping matters, New York’s unique ballot access laws just seem to encourage self-destructive behavior by the local Republicans. With Republican/Conservative/Independence Party splits threatening to result in multiple viable right-of-center candidates in races ranging from NY-01 to NY-23, now cat fud is about to start flying in the Senate race. David Malpass, seeming a long shot in the Republican field, has said that he’s going to seek the ballot line on the as-yet-to-be-named teabagger’s ballot line that gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino is trying to create, most likely to be called the Taxpayer’s line. Malpass, as you’ll recall, is lagging in GOP primary polls against Joe DioGuardi, who already has the Conservative line but is trying to petition onto the GOP ballot, and Bruce Blakeman, who’s assured a spot on the GOP ballot. This may even spill over into the who-cares other Senate race, where Gary Berntsen wants in on the Taxpayer’s line (and where rival Jay Townsend already has the Conservative line).

• WA-Sen: The Washington Farm Bureau, which endorsed Dino Rossi in his two failed gubernatorial bids, has decided not to endorse anybody in the Senate race. Goldy wonders whether this is a matter of lots of Clint Didier supporters at the Farm Bureau… Didier, after all, is a farmer… or if the Farm Bureau secretly likes Patty Murray’s skill at appropriations.

• WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin held a press conference today to announce his plans on the vacant Senate seat, and it seems like the institutional pressure on him to fill the seat soon (preferably with himself) seems to be working. Manchin stopped short of calling on the state legislature to have a special session to move up the election to Nov. 2010, but he did tell his AG to start laying the legal groundwork for such a move. Manchin again said that he wouldn’t appoint himself to the seat on a temporary basis, but confirmed that he would be “highly” interested in running for the seat whenever the special election occurs. (He didn’t give any inkling on who he might appoint.) At any rate, it seems like Manchin feels confident that, despite the national downdraft for Dems this year, his own personal popularity, combined with the shortened election schedule working to his advantage, would facilitate his election in November; if he didn’t, he wouldn’t be going along so readily with the moved-up election.

• CO-Gov: Democratic nominee John Hickenlooper had better hope the contributions keep coming in: he’s sitting on only $66K CoH right now (although he raised $500K in June alone), but he just reserved $1.2 million in ad time. The plan is to lock the ad space in now, when it’s still cheap to reserve far in advance. On the Republican side of the aisle, insurgent candidate Dan Maes is in some trouble: he’s being hit with the largest fine ever handed down to a Colorado candidate for campaign finance donations. It was for a series of small-ball failures rather than one huge blunder, ranging from improper reimbursements to himself for mileage, to failure to list occupations for many donors.

• OK-Gov: As I remarked yesterday, it’s a remarkable transformation for Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, who in a few months went from DOA in her own primary, to competing with Sarah Palin in terms of traversing the country handing out GOP primary endorsements like so much poisoned candy. (What’s something Arizona-specific that we can call her clutch of endorsees? Mama Rattlesnakes?) Brewer waded into another gubernatorial race, giving her backing to Rep. Mary Fallin in Oklahoma.

• PA-Gov: Democratic nominee Dan Onorato seems to be kicking his fundraising operations into higher gear after having won the primary; he pulled in $1 million in contributions in the last month. He’s sitting on $2.5 million CoH.

• TX-Gov: The plot (to get the Green Party on the ballot in Texas) keeps thickening. New e-mails have surfaced among Green leaders revealing the name of Anthony Holm, a GOP consultant linked to big-time GOP donor Bob Perry (the man behind the Swift Boat Vets), saying that he wanted to pay for 40% of the costs of petitions to get the Greens on the ballot. Holm denies any involvement.

• MN-06: It looks like the 6th, held by lightning rod Michele Bachmann, is going to be the nation’s most expensive House race this year. Democratic challenger Tarryl Clark posted big numbers this morning, raising $910K this quarter, claiming $2 million raised so far this cycle. (No mention of her CoH.) Then later this morning, Bachmann topped that, raising $1.7 million last quarter, giving her $4.1 million CoH, which would be plenty even for a Senate race.

• TN-06: State Sen. Diane Black has a GOP primary lead in an internal poll taken for her by OnMessage. She’s at 41, leading former Rutherford County GOP chair Lou Ann Zelenik at 22 and state Sen. Jim Tracy at 20. Black (or whoever else wins) should have an easy time picking up this R+13 Dem-held open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Bart Gordon.

• TN-08: Here’s one more GOP primary internal poll out of Tennessee, from the Stephen Fincher camp. His poll, conducted by the Tarrance Group, gives Fincher the lead at 32, followed by Ron Kirkland at 23 and George Flinn at 21. Attacks on Fincher by the other two seem to have taken their toll, as Fincher’s previous internal poll from early April gave him a 40-17-7 lead. As with the poll in the 6th, there’s no word on general election matchups.

• WI-07: Republican Sean Duffy, bolstered by David Obey’s retirement (and a Sarah Palin endorsement), had a big quarter, raising $470K. He’s at $670K CoH.

• Legislatures: If you read one thing today, this should be it: Stateline.org’s Louis Jacobson handicaps all the state legislative chambers that promise to be competitive this year. As you might expect, the news isn’t very good for Democrats, considering not just the nature of the year but how many chambers they currently hold. He projects one currently Democratic-controlled chamber as Lean R (the Indiana House), and has 11 nominally Dem-held chambers as Tossups (both Alabama chambers, Iowa House, Montana House, both New Hampshire chambers, New York Senate, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House, and both Wisconsin chambers). The only nominally GOP-held chamber that’s a Tossup is the Alaska Senate, which is in fact controlled by a coalition of sane Republicans and Democrats.

• NRCC: The NRCC seems to like slapping lots of different names on different groups so that they look busy, and now they’ve even come up with a program for primary victors who are running in safe Republican seats: “Vanguard!” There’s no word on what exactly they plan to do for these shoo-ins, or if it’s just an impressive-sounding title so that the likes of Jeff Duncan and Todd Rokita don’t feel left out.

• Fundraising: The Fix has a couple other fundraising tidbits that we haven’t seen before: Craig Miller in FL-24 raised $270K for 2Q with $332K CoH. And Charlie Bass in NH-02 raised $170K and has $360K CoH.

Field Poll (pdf) (6/22-7/5, likely voters, 3/9-15 in parens):

Jerry Brown (D): 44 (43)

Meg Whitman (R): 43 (46)

Undecided: 13 (11)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

The Field Poll is back after a hiatus with its first look at the general election in California in more than three months; the news for Jerry Brown is so-so, with a negligible lead over Meg Whitman. Of course, that’s a definite improvement over the previous poll, where Whitman led by 3 (taken during that brief period where Whitman had the airwaves to herself and several other pollsters found a narrow lead for her). Nevertheless, the general reaction of the punditry today is that the poll is a negative for Brown (take TPM for instance, where the headline is “Bad News for Brown” and the teaser reads “The latest poll of the California governor’s race shows Whitman pulling to within one point of Jerry Brown.”

Brown’s favorables are mediocre, at 42/40 (not much changed since March, where he was at 41/37, but certainly a change from March 2009, when he hadn’t been besmirched by negative ads and was at 50/25). Whitman, though, has taken much more of a pounding: she’s underwater now at 40/42, down from 40/27 in March, having gotten hit by both Steve Poizner and Brown’s surrogates. Although he should be cheered by the collateral damage to Whitman, there are some red flags here for Brown, in terms of how he performs among what should be the strongest Democratic constituencies: Latinos (among whom he leads by only 11, 50-39 perhaps thanks to some Spanish-language advertising by Whitman… he led 54-25 among Latinos in March) and the 18-39 set (among whom Whitman actually leads, 45-42, though that’s a drop from her 46-36 lead in March). Brown’s strength comes from those 50 and older, who are the ones old enough to remember his last turn in office, which happened to coincide with a time when California seemed to suck a lot less. If Brown can solidify his standing with young and Latino voters, he should be in more solid shape for November.

IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Nothing like collateral damage on the campaign trail. Mark Kirk has been trying to make a weird issue out of the fact that Alexi Giannoulias didn’t pay any income taxes last year. It’s weird because Giannoulias lost millions of dollars last year, and it would be a little hard to tax a negative number. But it’s also been a foolhardy crusade, because Kirk’s ticket-mate, gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady, is in the exact same position as Giannoulias – and so Kirk was compelled to criticize his fellow Republican as well, for a total non-issue. D’oh!

Meanwhile, Giannoulias fired back with a hit of his own, attacking Mark Kirk for pulling a Kasich and refusing to release his tax returns. But wait, there’s more! Kirk’s also been busy pulling yet another Kirk, too:

Also during Kirk’s news conference, the congressman would not discuss the latest question about his military career, this time from a statement he made in a Sun-Times questionnaire that he was “shot at” while serving with a Dutch armor unit in Kandahar.

IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth is out with his first ad of the campaign. As always, NWOTSOTB (that’s “No Word On The Size Of The Buy” in English – get used to seeing that around here).

OH-Sen: Cap-and-trade has proven to be perilous territory for more than one Republican candidate this cycle, with flip-flops as persistent as vuvuzela blasts at a World Cup match. That’s because trading emissions credits had long been one of those rare non-insane Republican ideas that a lot of Republicans had cottoned to. But because Dems have embraced the idea, too, it’s now political poison in GOP circles. So, no surprise to see Rob Portman blasting cap-and-trade a “job killer” – and then getting instantly hammered by Dems for having supported it during his career in Congress. Whoops!

GA-Gov: Dem Roy Barnes is out with a new ad whaling on the idiocy regularly perpetrated by Republicans in the state legislature – like attempting to ban stem cell research, passing bills “about microchips in the brain,” and talking about seceding from the union – which he says makes it hard to recruit jobs to the state. NWOTSOTB.

HI-Gov: Outgoing Gov. Linda Lingle (R) vetoed a civil unions bill yesterday, her final day to do so. Whether this becomes a potent issue on the campaign trail remains to be seen, but at least two of the big three candidates in the race have come out with statements on Lingle’s action: Neil Abercrombie (he’s for civil unions) and Duke Aiona (he’s against them).

FL-25: GOP state Rep. David Rivera, a hardline extremist when it comes to supporting the Cuban embargo, has taken some heat for his alleged friendship with businessman Ariel Pereda. Pereda has been an active proponent of trade with Cuba, and Rivera has denied that the two have a relationship. But Mariana Cancio, another Republican candidate, posted a video of Pereda standing behind Rivera at Rivera’s campaign kick-off.

IN-09: Republican Todd Young has an internal out from Public Opinion Strategies (feel like I’ve been seeing that name a lot) which shows him trailing Baron Hill by 41-34. Note that the poll had just 300 respondents. (When you click the link, scroll all the way to the bottom for the poll press release.)

LA-03: In a bit of a throwaway sentence in a bigger article about the start of the candidate qualifying period in Louisiana, the Times-Picayune notes that Dems are still trying to recruit interim Lt. Gov. Scott Angelle to run for Rep. Charlie Melancon’s open House seat.

LA-05: Teabagging businessman (but I’m guessing Some Dude) Todd Slavant is planning to challenge notorious Democrat-cum-Republican turncoat Rodney Alexander in the GOP primary. I tend to doubt that Alexander will meet with Parker Griffith’s fate, though.

MO-08: Dem Tommy Sowers is out with his first ad, a semi-biographical spot which features his “combat bible.” NWOTSOTB.

MT-AL: This is a weird echo of something in the not-too-distant past of Montana’s political world. Denny Rehberg is suing the Billings fire department for allegedly failing to contain a fire that occurred on his property almost exactly two years ago. The fire chief is saying that saving, you know, lives is their number one priority (none were lost) – and pointing out that the folks who worked to put out the blaze had given up their holiday weekend. Oh, and that odd rhyme? Folks with keen memories will recall that former Montana Sen. Conrad Burns went out of his way to insult bone-weary firefighters to their faces who had schlepped all the way from Virginia to put out blazes back in 2006.

Iowa: Ugh: Iowa SoS Michael Mauro reports that the 100,000 voter registration edge Democrats held in the Hawkeye State just six months ago has been cut in half. However, Mauro points out that the Dems had a 40K deficit in 2002 and yet both Sen. Tom Harkin and then-Gov. Tom Vilsack won re-election.

Maryland: Candidate filing closed in Maryland yesterday. Click the link for a full list of candidates. Incidentally, only five states still have open filing periods: LA, WI, NY, HI, and DE, which brings up the rear with a July 30th deadline.

Fundraising: Reid Wilson has a few fundraising nums we haven’t seen before, including figures from AL-07, LA-03, and MA-10. Shelia Smoot’s weak haul in AL-07 is disappointing but not surprising.

Public Policy Polling (6/26-27, North Carolina voters, 6/4-6 in parens):

Elaine Marshall (D): 33 (39)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 38 (49)

Michael Beitler (L): 10 (n/a)

Undecided: 20 (16)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

PPP gives us their first post-runoff poll of Richard Burr’s first re-election bid, and finds that it’s more of the same for the incumbent:

The punditry has stated time and again that one reason the 2010 North Carolina Senate race won’t be a repeat of the 2008 contest is that Burr has been much more visible than Dole was, but someone forgot to tell the voters that. 41% of North Carolinians think that Dole was more visible as a Senator than Burr has been to 32% who think Burr has been more visible, and 27% with no opinion. The feeling that Dole was more visible is held by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.

Burr’s relatively anonymity for an incumbent Senator can be seen in his approval numbers. 28% of voters still have no opinion of him, with those who do splitting negatively. 34% like the job he’s doing while 39% disapprove.

Marshall is still pretty unknown too despite 14 years in statewide office and a recently completed campaign to secure her party’s nomination. 58% of voters have no opinion about her with 22% seeing her favorably and 20% unfavorably.

Remarkably (given the nature of the year), this race still isn’t out of reach for Democrats. The problem, though, is that Marshall is seriously out-gunned financially. Never a prodigious fundraiser, it was disturbing to see that Marshall’s campaign boasted about raising under $140,000 in the two-week period following her runoff win over ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham. A level of fundraising at that pace would amount to less than $900K for a full fundraising quarter — which just isn’t enough to beat a Republican incumbent in a year like this. Marshall will need to find a way to step it up, because the DSCC will have their hands full with other races before they bankroll this one.

UPDATE: Mike Nellis, a Marshall staffer, writes in the comments that their $140K haul represents online donations only. That’s much better news.

• AZ-Sen: J.D. Hayworth may have sunk his own ship, not so much with his history of shilling for free-grant-money scams but with his flip response (“Buyer beware!”) when the accusations first came to light. Sensing some traction on the issue, Team McCain is out with a second ad on the topic, this time outright calling Hayworth a “huckster.”

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt is out with his first TV ad in his Senate campaign; it’s a feel-good intro spot that seems mostly oriented toward the primary audience. It’s the story of a humble high school teacher and university president, with no mention of how he just happened to be the House minority whip (or even a Republican). Blunt is very likely to prevail against teabagging state Sen. Chuck Purgason in the primary (who just got the coveted endorsement of Samuel Wurzelbacher), but would naturally prefer a convincing margin.

• NV-Sen: You know the best way to make sure that people don’t go back and look at all the ridiculous things that you said earlier? Don’t jump up and down saying “OMG! Don’t look at those ridiculous things I said earlier!” Well, that’s what Sharron Angle is doing, having scrubbed her website of all the ridiculous things she said back in the GOP primary as part of having “softened” (her words) her image, but having found Harry Reid’s campaign preserving her old website as part of his website (ah, the wonders of the cache…). They’ve now issued a cease-and-desist letter, ordering Reid to stop publishing the ridiculous things she said earlier. Meanwhile, Angle (last seen comparing herself to Abraham Lincoln) is facing a new problem: the possibility that the NRA (unenthused about the much-less-gun-friendly Dick Durbin or Chuck Schumer as majority leader) might actually endorse Harry Reid.

• OH-Sen: Jennifer Brunner reflects back on her Senate primary campaign, with no regrets about her running a shoestring-budget, ground-game-oriented campaign, and also with a few of the same complaints (of behind-the-scenes fundraising blackballing, for which she still offers no proof).

• SC-Sen: Linda Ketner seems like a savvy businesswoman, and the possibility of an independent Senate bid to save SC Dems from Alvin Greene probably didn’t strike her as a good investment. The former SC-01 candidate made it official over the weekend that she wouldn’t run, telling her petition-gathering supporters to stand down.

• WV-Sen: Following the West Virginia story is a bit like watching a game of ping-pong, because today the story has rapidly bounced back to the likelihood of there being a special election this year to replace Robert Byrd after all. SoS Natalie Tennant, who interpreted the law to say that there won’t be an election until 2012, is now saying that’s, practically speaking, too long and that the legislature should take that up in a special session this year. Of course, the decision to call a special session is up to Gov. Joe Manchin, the likely eventual occupant of that seat, and it’s a question of what timing he thinks is best for him, perception-wise.

Interestingly, there’s increasing pressure from both labor (AFL-CIO, UMW) and business (Chamber of Commerce) for Manchin to get it over with and appoint himself to the seat right away rather than using a seat-warmer, suggesting that the perception wouldn’t be that bad (compared with many other states, where governors appointing themselves to the Senate has frequently backfired catastrophically). Everybody in West Virginia seems to know how their bread is buttered, and that’s facilitated by getting Manchin in there as quick as possible so he can start accruing seniority. The state GOP is moving toward a lawsuit to compel a special election this year, but that may not be necessary if all the state’s establishment is already on board with the idea.

• GA-Gov: Insider Advantage is out with new polls of the Republican Georgia gubernatorial primary, and it offers quite a surprise: ex-SoS Karen Handel has shot into a tie with Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, who has had a significant lead for most of this cycle. Handel and Oxendine are both at 18, with ex-Rep. Nathan Deal at 12, and state Sen. Eric Johnson (who’s hitting the TV airwaves to attempt a late move) at 8. There may be two factors at work here: one, the increasing public perception that Oxendine is an ethically-challenged sleaze (the Handel camp has taken to calling him “the Rod Blagojevich of Georgia politics), and two, an endorsement for Handel from unusual quarters — Arizona’s Jan Brewer (a fellow former SoS), suddenly promoted from dead-woman-walking to right-wing heroine after her signing of that state’s immigrant-bashing law — that Ed Kilgore thinks have some of the same galvanizing effect as Sarah Palin’s embrace of Nikki Haley in South Carolina.

• NE-Gov: There’s a lot of backstory behind the strange Mark Lakers dropout that we didn’t know about until after he bailed out. It turns out that in May, there was a brouhaha after a number of people were listed as Lakers contributors on his campaign finance reports, some of whom weren’t even Lakers supporters at all. This led to calls in June from several prominent Democrats (including a former state party chair) for Lakers to get out of the race, and with his fundraising subsequently stymied (leaving him with $3,293 cash on hand on June 23), he seemed to have no choice but to bail. A replacement can be picked at the state Democratic convention, July 23 to 25.

• TX-Gov: The Supreme Court of Texas (can I just abbreviate that as SCOTex?) has given the Greens a lifeline, and by extension, the Republicans. (Not really a coincidence, seeing as the Texas Supreme Court is a partisan-elected, Republican-controlled body.) They blocked a lower court’s order that the Greens be kept off the ballot, letting them meet the certification deadline, although it left open the possibility that they will remove the Greens from the ballot later. The controversy, you’ll recall, is over whether the Greens’ petition drive was funded by out-of-state corporate money, an illegal in-kind contribution.

• FL-24: Craig Miller, the rich guy running against two underfunded elected officials in the GOP primary, has the lead according to his own internal poll (conducted by McLaughlin & Assocs.). Miller is at 17, with state Rep. Sandy Adams at 11, and Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel (who had been considered a good get when she got into the race) registering all of 3. The winner faces off against Democratic freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in the Orlando ‘burbs.

• KY-06: Attorney Andy Barr, who’s running against Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler in the 6th, is enduring some bad PR over his membership in a Lexington-area country club that, until last year, had never had a black member. His response? It’s “not an issue,” as he’s “a member of a lot of organizations.” (As an aside, that first member will be familiar to NBA history fans: Sam Bowie, the consensus pick as the worst draft disaster in human history.)

• NY-01: It’s usually not good news when your entire advisory infrastructure up and quits all at once, but that’s what happened in the campaign of Chris Cox, the Richard Nixon grandson and, more importantly, (state party chair) Ed Cox son who’s running a carpetbaggery campaign to represent the Hamptons. Much of the former McCain operation (John Weaver, Mark Salter, etc.) was working for Cox, but left en masse last week. Cox still gathering petitions to get on the GOP ballot (due in five days), so it’ll be interesting to see if that even happens now.

• OH-17: Trafican’t! (A few other wags have already used that joke today, so don’t credit me for it.) Ex-Rep. (and ex-con) Jim Traficant’s comeback bid in the 17th came to an ignominious end today, after it was revealed that he didn’t have enough signatures to petition onto the ballot as an independent, as over 1,000 of the 3,138 signatures he turned in were invalid. Beam him up, Scotty. (I’m not the first to make that joke either, sorry.)

• TN-08: It’s remarkable that the rural, dirt-poor, cheap-media-markets 8th is turning into one of the highest-dollar House races in the whole country. State Sen. Roy Herron, the likely Democratic nominee, had another big quarter, pulling in $350K over the last three months, which gives him $1.2 million CoH banked while the GOPers hammer each other.

• WI-07: The Democratic primary field was once again cleared for state Sen. Julie Lassa in the open seat race in the 7th to replace retiring Rep. David Obey. Joe Reasbeck (on the Some Dude end of the spectrum and not likely to give Lassa much trouble anyway) dropped out, citing family concerns. She’ll likely face Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy, who does still face a contested primary.

• Redistricting: Redistricting in Florida in 2012 is dependent on what happens with the two Fair Districts initiatives (Amendments 5 and 6) on the ballot in November this year, which would limit the Republican-held legislature’s ability to gerrymander to their liking. (Unless Amendment 7, backed by a coalition of Republicans and minority Democrats, also passes, which would largely neuter 5 and 6.) The Orlando Sentinel looks at some of the difficulty the GOP may have with drawing favorable maps amidst burgeoning population growth in central Florida even if they can gerrymander at will, though; Hispanic populations there have been growing and Democrats have moved into a registration advantage in many areas.

PPP (pdf) (6/28-30, Kentucky voters, 5/1-2 in parens):

Jack Conway (D): 43 (40)

Rand Paul (R): 43 (41)

Undecided: 14 (19)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Rand Paul (last seen comparing the current predicament of the United States to the fall of the Roman Empire) is in a tricky position: the more people learn about him, the less they seem to like him. As increased scrutiny has shone on Paul in the weeks since his victory in the Kentucky GOP primary, voters say by a 38-29 margin that the coverage has made them less likely to vote for him (with 33% saying it made no difference). In other words, all the pre-primary hype about Paul was that he was an outsider… and now people are finding out belatedly that he’s an outsider for good reason.

Paul’s favorables are now negative, at 34/42, while Jack Conway is much less known, giving him more upside: he’s at 31/29. Still, the decline in Paul’s fortunes hasn’t changed the toplines much since PPP’s last look at the race two months ago (PPP has always had the Dem-friendliest numbers of any pollster in this particular race). As with many other races in the Appalachian arc, it may boil down to which disliked figure people like even less in November: Barack Obama (37/58) or Paul.