Month: July 2010

SSP Updates 40 Race Ratings

We’ve finally gotten around to updating our House, Senate and Gubernatorial race ratings charts with the following 40 changes:

  • AR-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • CA-Sen: Likely D to Lean D
  • HI-Sen: Races to Watch to Safe D
  • IN-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • ND-Sen: Likely R to Safe R
  • WI-Sen: Races to Watch to Lean D

  • AK-Gov: Races to Watch to Safe R
  • CA-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
  • FL-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
  • GA-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
  • ID-Gov: Safe R to Likely R
  • KS-Gov: Safe R to Likely R
  • MD-Gov: Likely D to Tossup
  • ME-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
  • NM-Gov: Likely D to Tossup
  • NV-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • NY-Gov: Races to Watch to Safe D
  • OK-Gov: Lean R to Likely R
  • OR-Gov: Likely D to Tossup
  • PA-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • TN-Gov: Lean R to Likely R

  • AR-02: Tossup to Lean R
  • DE-AL: Likely D to Lean D
  • FL-02: Safe D to Lean D
  • FL-22: Likely D to Lean D
  • GA-08: Likely D to Lean D
  • IA-03: Lean D to Tossup
  • IL-17: Safe D to Likely D
  • KY-03: Safe D to Likely D
  • KY-06: Likely D to Lean D
  • NC-02: Safe D to Likely D
  • NC-07: Safe D to Likely D
  • NC-08: Likely D to Lean D
  • ND-AL: Lean D to Tossup
  • NY-19: Lean D to Tossup
  • NY-29: Tossup to Lean R
  • OH-16: Lean D to Tossup
  • SD-AL: Lean D to Tossup
  • TX-17: Lean D to Tossup

34 of these changes favor Republicans; 6 races have moved in the Democratic direction.

My Little House Predictions

So here are my updated House predictions.  In my last predictions, I had Dems losing 26 seats (30 Republican takeovers, 4 Dem).  The new number is 23 seats (27 Republican takeovers, 4 Dem).  IA-03 was added to the takeovers, and FL-24, IL-14, and NV-03 fell off.  This was a new, somewhat more scientific approach, so I wasn’t really trying to achieve any consistency with the old picks.  I tried to estimate partisan turnout based on statewide exit poll data extrapolated district-by-district according to PVI.  

I am also paring the list down, noting only the races I expect to be decided by 10 or less.  And for you nitpickers, I have tried to account for third party candidates.  Most of the totals that do not add up to 100% are attributable for that.  For a few races where there were no third party candidates, the margins totaled 99% so that I could represent an odd-numbered margin without using decimals.

AR-02 – Griffin 59, Elliott 39 – Waffling on Pelosi?  Really, Ms. Elliott?

CO-04 – Gardner 50, Markey 45 –

DE-AL – Carney 53, Rollins 45 – Monster hall for Rollins a little disconcerting.

KS-03 – Yoder 52, Moore 45 – Moore had a solid fundraising haul for Q2.

LA-02 – Richmond 52, Cao 44 – Not that I don’t believe internal poll, but this one should move a lot when voters inform themselves.

MI-01 – Allen 52, McDowell 44 – McDowell fundraising hall was disappointing.

NH-02 – Bass 51, Kuster 45 – Don’t like the way NH is shaping up for Dems this cycle.

NY-29 – Reed 58, Zeller 40 – My sense is that Dems are just trying to build Zeller’s profile.

OH-01 – Chabot 49, Driehaus 44 – Hard for Driehaus to replicate 2008 turnout.

OH-15 – Stivers 51, Kilroy 44 – Tough for Kilroy to put together her fragile coalition this year.

PA-07 – Meehan 52, Lentz 46 – Hard to deny that Meehan has the edge here.

PA-11 – Barletta 53, Kanjorski 47 – Kanjorski cannot stop tripping over his own feet.

TN-06 – Tracey 62, Leming 35 – Dems won’t contest this.

TX-17 – Flores 51, Edwards 46 – Well-funded Flores almost has to beat Edwards after 2008 result.

VA-05 – Hurt 51, Periello 44 – Can’t completely discount SUSA poll.

Republicans Abandoning CO-GOV?

Some big, and possibly wonderful news. A local Colorado political blog has reported that all its signs and sources point to the RGA and Republican groups dropping serious efforts to pick up this Governorship. http://www.coloradopols.com/di…

One Republican consultant for a consulting group said, according to them, “We have no money,” and with the RGA not even paying for a “tracker” to follow Hickenlooper to his public events anymore, it seems they have given up on this race following McInnis’s game changing plagiarism charges.  

I suspected this all along, but I still can’t believe some here brushed it off as a wine-track scandal, as even less of a big deal than Kirk’s minor embellishments, or Blumenthal’s consistently poor wording, or that voters would care about this less than if McInnis had had, say, an affair. Ridiculous. This is not a wine-track scandal and that’s become obvious. I think everyday, average joes still find it a turn off when they see a candidate was paid 300,000 dollars to write a series of essays, and then plagiarized large portions of them directly from another author; that is essentially cheating, scamming, even defrauding an employer for work you didn’t do, and I think no voter has a hard time being bothered by that.

However with McInnis firmly sticking to his guns and refusing to step out, Republican groups seem to be quietly cutting their losses. Hickenlooper has emerged from being a narrow underdog to being firmly in the drivers seat for the rest of the campaign. I’m personally ecstatic about this. This is a big deal, it gives Colorado Democrats complete control of the redistricting process, as they seem favored to control the state house, and, judging by a list of what Democratic seats are up in 2010, the State Senate is not really in play. That will allow them to shore up Betsy Markey and John Salazar while keeping Perlmutter, Polis, and DeGette safe.

What’s more is I’ve always been a fan of Hickenlooper, he’ll be a strong, and popular governor, capable of keeping Colorado on its Democratic trend. His record as Mayor of Denver is excellent, and he’s also a much more reliable progressive than Bill Ritter. This is great news for the future of the Colorado Democratic party, and it may even have a positive impact on the Senate race, where appointee Michael Bennett is in a fierce spot to get elected to a full term.  

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Redistricting the Maryland General Assembly (Dem Gerrymander)

So yeah, I’ve been working on a map of the state legislature for a while. I had one ready months ago, but there were a few things I hated about it, so I didn’t post it. I finally came up with something that satisfies me about 80-90%.

My goals were as follows:

– As many Democrats as possible, with a focus on protecting incumbent Democrats.

-Make the Dem districts as liberal as possible to aid in getting some real liberal legislation through.

– As few county-crossings as possible, to avoid a potential court challenge. I also tried to be mindful of municipal and cultural boundaries, although in Maryland it’s really the counties that people focus on.

– The same or more majority-black districts.

So, without further ado, here we go.

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District 1: Western Maryland: Garrett, Allegany, and Washington (part) Counties

New district: 93% white, 33% Obama (current 32% Obama)

1A – all of Garrett, part of Allegany: 98% white, 28% Obama (current 27% Obama)

1B – part of allegany: 89% white, 41% Obama (current 34% Obama)

1C – part of Allegany, part of Washington: 93% white, 34% Obama (current 36% Obama)

Current 1C was drawn to help former speaker Casper R. Taylor, but now that he’s gone we should put all of our effort into helping Kevin Kelly by tying Cumberland and Frostburg together.

District 2: Washington County

New district: 83% white, 44% Obama (current 44% Obama)

2A – Hagerstown periphery: 84% white, 42% Obama (current 39% Obama)

2B – Southern and Eastern Washington County: 84% white, 38% Obama (current 40% Obama)

2C – Hagerstown: 79% white, 57% Obama (current 55% Obama)

2A and 2C get more Democratic, maybe someday the Senate district and 2A could be within reach.

District 3: Frederick County (including city of Frederick)

New district: 70% white, 56% Obama (current 54% Obama)

I got rid of the subdistricts in order to consolidate Democratic support within the district. A Republican or 2 could possibly slip by for the time being, but by 2020 this should be firm Dem territory.

District 4: Frederick, Carroll, and Washington Counties (only a small part of Washington County)

New district: 92% white, 36% Obama (current 37% Obama)

4A – Frederick County (small part of Washington County) – 2 delegates – 92% white, 38% Obama (current 39% Obama)

4B – Carroll County (small part of Frederick County) – 1 delegate – 93% white, 32% Obama (current 33% Obama)

District 5: Carroll County

New district: 91% white, 33% Obama (current 33% Obama)

I moved the district completely into Carroll County (to make it more compact and to give Carroll County a whole district to call its own). Got rid of subdistricts, since Carroll County is pretty uniform, so they’d be pointless.

District 6: Baltimore County (southeastern)

New district: 79% white, 43%-46% Obama (somewhere in that range) (current 45% Obama)

This one I struggled with a lot. I ultimately decided to just keep it somewhat as is for a number of reasons. First, this district is blue-collar, and even making it 60% Obama would still give people that impression, so the reps are not likely to be liberals no matter what (and it’s thus better to shore up some surrounding districts). Second, the Republican bench is weak as hell here, and the district votes as much as 70-80% for local Democrats, so I still like our chances here. Third, this was where Glendenning’s plan was shot down in 2002, so I don’t want to mess with this district much. Fourth, adding a large part of the city could potentially mean the Dem nominee (or nominees) would be African-American, which could potentially lead to a loss in this district even if you make it 55-60% Obama-supporting. Thus, it’s better to just leave sort of as-is and just write it off if necessary.

District 7 – Baltimore and Carroll Counties

New district: 90% white, 35% Obama (current 39%)

Basically a combination of the old 7 and the old 5B.

District 8 – Baltimore County and Baltimore City

New district: 59% white, 71% Obama (current 48% Obama)

Finally, a real Baltimore liberal district. Todd Schuler currently represents the 8th (which voted for McCain), and he’s the only delegate in the Baltimore area who openly supports gay marriage. He’s not running for reelection, but he could def have his old seat back if he wants it.

District 9 – Howard County (eastern)

New district: 64% white, 61% Obama (current 43% Obama)

Completely moved from one side of Howard to another. Should add 3 new Dem delegates and one new Dem senator to the caucus, and even if not right away, Republicans will always be on defense here.

District 10 – West Baltimore County

New District: 53% black, 74% Obama (current 87% Obama)

I don’t like how the current district packs black votes (this may be a remnant of an earlier time when this was necessary), so I made a district that the current representatives would be very happy with, as it does not endanger them in any way and it gives black voters more of a voice in surrounding districts.

District 11: West and North Baltimore County

New District: 62% white, 64% Obama (current 66% Obama)

Similar to before, but covering a larger territory to make District 42 more Democratic

District 12: Southwest Baltimore County

New district: 58% white, 61% Obama (current 58% Obama)

No more swingy subdistricts, no more awkward gerrymandering for no reason. District is now more Democratic and completely within one county.

District 13: Howard and Montgomery Counties

New District: 64% white, 60% Obama (current 65% Obama)

Dem support here is growing, and all the incumbents can run here again, so no fears about the drop in performance.

District 14: Montgomery County (east)

New District: 58% white, 65% Obama (current 65% Obama)

District 15: Montgomery County (west)

New District: 68% white, 65% Obama (current 65% Obama)

District 16: Montgomery County (south central)

New district: 43% white, 74% Obama (current 76% Obama)

District 17: Montgomery County (Gaithersburg-Rockville)

New District: 48% white, 71% Obama (current 71% Obama)

District 18: Montgomery County (Bethesda)

New District: 78% white, 74% Obama (current 76% Obama)

District 19: Montgomery County (Olney)

New district: 52% white, 68% Obama (current 68% Obama)

District 20: Montgomery County (Silver Spring)

New district: 32% white, 85% Obama (current 85% Obama)

District 21: Prince George’s County (Laurel-College Park)

New district: 34% black, 78% Obama (current 75% Obama)

No longer stretches into Anne Arundel County. I wanted to make it majority-black, but it’s actually somewhat difficult to get all majority-black districts out of north PG without making the lines too crazy. However, since the district is not currently majority-black, I didn’t worry about it.

District 22 Prince George’s County (Greenbelt-Hyattsville)

New District: 53% black, 88% Obama (current 85% Obama)

District becomes majority-black, as it is not currently.

District 23 Prince George’s County (Bowie)

New district: 58% black, 83% Obama (current 81% Obama)

District is only barely majority-black now, so I made it moreso. Got rid of subdistricts because I don’t know what the point of them was.

District 24 Prince George’s County (Greater Upper Marlboro) and Anne Arundel County (southern rural parts)

New district: 55% black, 72% Obama (current 98% Obama)

I wanted to break up Southern PG County some because it was just insanely packed with black voters. In exchange for making this district less black, 22 is now majority black, and 47 and 23 are more black, so I don’t see how anyone could sue.

District 25 Prince George’s County (Capitol Heights, District Heights)

New District: 83% black, 96% Obama (current 96% Obama)

Did not want to pack this much, but had to.

District 26 Prince George’s County (National Harbor)

New District: 79% black, 93% Obama (current 94% Obama)

District 27 Prince Georges County (Upper Marlboro) and Calvert County

New district: 66% white, 62% Obama (current 71% Obama)

Got rid of sub-districts, took in all of Calvert county instead of just part.

District 28 Charles County (most)

New District: 53% white, 63% Obama (current 63% Obama)

District 29 St. Mary’s County and Charles County (part)

New district: 73% white, 47% Obama (current 44% Obama)

29A – Central and Northern St. Mary’s – 85% white, 39% Obama (current 39% Obama)

29B – Southern St. Mary’s County – 67% white, 48% Obama (current 47% Obama)

29C – West St. Mary’s and part of Charles – 68% white, 53% Obama (current 45% Obama)

No more Calvert County; both current Dem districts get some shoring up.

District 30: Anne Arundel County (Annapolis)

New district: 73% white, 55% Obama (current 52% Obama)

A little more Dem, but stays similar in shape.

District 31: Anne Arundel County (Glen Burnie)

New District: 60% white, 60% Obama (current 40% Obama)

Time for a bonafide liberal district out of AA County.

District 32 Anne Arundel County (Ft. Meade) and Howard County (North Laurel)

New district: 59% white, 62% Obama (current 54% Obama)

Yet another AA County liberal district, with help from Howard of course. Between 31 and 32 there’s more than enough love to go around between incumbent Dems.

District 33 Anne Arundel County (Severna Park)

New District: 87% white, 37% Obama (current 43% Obama)

Loses Dem areas and just becomes one big Rep vote sponge in north AA County. No more subdistricts.

District 34 Cecil and Harford Counties

New district: 88% white, 40% Obama (currently 48% Obama)

34A 1 delegate – Harford County – 86% white, 38% Obama (current 55% Obama)

34B 2 delegates – Cecil County – 89% white, 41% Obama (current 37% Obama)

I wanted liberal districts, so I had to throw this one to the wolves to make 46 more than just a swing district. It was bound to happen anyway though, as conservative Harford and Cecil Counties have had high growth and deserve an extra Rep district, plus the senator is already a Republican, so no big deal. I realigned the subdistricts so that Cecil gets 2 delegates and Harford gets 1 (due to population growth in Cecil). I decided not to divide Cecil further because Del. David Rudolph lives in Rising Sun, which is extremely conservative, so if anything keeping Elkton and Rising Sun together will only help him out (in fact, I moved his district 4 points more Democratic while the district moved 8 points more Republican – amazing).

District 35 Harford County (Bel Air)

New district: 92% white, 30% Obama (current 31%)

Damn, now thaaat’s conservative. Only subdistrict 1A is more conservative. No more subdistricts – they’re unnecessary.

District 36 Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, and Caroline Counties.

New district: 89% white, 39% Obama (currently 41%)

36A – Cecil and Kent Counties – 86% white, 46% Obama

36B – Caroline and Queen Anne’s Counties – 81% white, 36% Obama

36C – Queen Anne’s County – 88% white, 35% Obama

Split into subdistricts because having one huge district doesn’t serve anybody. Plus, that Kent district could elect a Democrat possibly.

District 37: Talbot, Dorchester, part of Somerset, and part of Wicomico (Salisbury) Counties.

New district: 63% white, 49% Obama (currently 46% Obama)

37A – one delegate – Somerset and Wicomico – 50% black, 64% Obama (currently 65% Obama)

37B – two delegates – Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester, and Talbot – 73% white, 45% Obama (currently 39%)

Yes it does split an extra county, Somerset, but this should be allowed, as it makes creating a majority-black district much easier, splitting fewer towns in the process. Also worth noting is that the subdistrict and senate district as a whole are now potentially winnable.

District 38: Somerset (part), Wicomico (part), and Worcester Counties

New district: 81% white, 40% Obama (currently 41% Obama)

38A – 1 delegate – Somerset and Wicomico – 82% white, 36% Obama (currently 45% Obama)

38B – 2 delegates – Somerset, Wicomico, and Worcester – 80% white, 43% Obama (currently 41% Obama)

This Senate district is sacrificed forever, but the 2 Dems in 38B get a district that’s 2 points safer. 38A becomes a wasteland.

District 39: Montgomery and Frederick Counties (Germantown-Urbana)

New district: 64% white, 63% Obama (currently 71% Obama)

Becomes less Democratic, and goes into Frederick County to pick up some high-growth areas (so as to not waste Dem votes). Remains safe Dem.

District 40: Baltimore City (Northwest)

New district: 64% black, 87% Obama (currently 93% Obama)

District 41: Baltimore City (Western)

New district: 65% black, 90% Obama (currently 87% Obama)

District 42: Baltimore County (Towson-Pikesville)

New District: 68% white, 60% Obama (currently 53% Obama)

Made the district more liberal by grabbing territory to the West. This district sorta hugs the inner beltway.

District 43: Baltimore City (central and Inner Harbor)

New district: 64% black, 86% Obama (currently 91% Obama)

District 44: Baltimore City and Anne Arundel County

New district: 55% black, 70% Obama (currently 92% Obama)

Yeah I have 2 districts that cross the city line, but both are justifiable due to population shifts. At 55% black (and with most Anne Arundel residents registered Republican) the district should be fine for the incumbents.

District 45: Baltimore City (Southeast)

New district: 59% black, 85% Obama (currently 90% Obama)

District 46: Harford County (Edgewood-Aberdeen) and Baltimore County (Middle River-Rossville)

New district: 65% white, 56% Obama (currently 72% Obama in Baltimore City)

This district of course had to be completely moved out of Baltimore City (this may be the last time the city loses a district, as growth is rebounding). Since Harford County has seen so much growth, I dare anyone to show me where it would make more sense for this district to go. Since District 8 has a good margin now, I decided to have the district head towards Rossville to pick up some liberal areas there that would be in 8. That brings the total up to 56% Obama, which should be safe for the 2 incumbents in 34A, plus a new Dem Delegate and a new Dem Senator. As an aside, I do not believe the district was majority black when in the city (as the Obama % is so low and it takes in many majority-white areas), so I don’t think there will be any trouble with VRA.

District 47 Prince George’s County (Cheverly-Glenarden)

New district: 61% black, 93% Obama (currently 92% Obama)

Was only like, 51% black, but the black percentage is shored up to prevent any ruckus over lowered (but still safe) black percentages elsewhere. Was going to create a plurality-hispanic district, but there would have been no point, as there are not enough registered Hispanic voters to make a difference.

So yeah, that’s it, the final breakdown is:

Obama over 60%:  94 Delegates 31 Senators

Obama 55-60%:     10 Delegates  3 Senators

Obama 50-55%:      1 Delegates  0 Senators

Obama 45-50%:      4 Delegates  2 Senators

Obama 40-45%:      9 Delegates  4 Senators

Obama under 40%: 23 Delegates  7 Senators

Obama won in 74% of the delegate seats (66% with over 60%) and 72% of Senate seats (65% with over 60%)

Let me know what you all think.

Field of Nightmares – the 2010 Gov Races

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

I’ve been holding off on July U.S. Senate projections for weeks now, waiting for something race-altering to give me some incentive in doing them. Alas, with just over a week left to go, it doesn’t appear that my June projection, a 52-48 hold for Senate Democrats, will change. In fact, none of my rankings have switched whatsoever, and, thus, for now,  I have practically no reason to focus upon the U.S. Senate field.

So, for the first time this year, I’m opting to veer away from that zaniness, into the comparable insanity that is the gubernatorial field. (I don’t have the time, patience, or energy to do a U.S. House projection, but my suspicion is the GOP will narrowly win it back.)

Frankly, I didn’t know what to quite expect in tacking the gubernatorial races. I’ve been following a few quite intently – California, New York, and Ohio in particular – but, in a number of these races, I wasn’t even sure of the candidates running. Little did I know just how few incumbents are running for re-election in this cycle, not to mention the vast number of candidates, in some cases nearly a half dozen serious contenders, in a few of the yet-to-be-determined primaries.

In mulling over each of this cycle’s gubernatorial races, I often found myself both shocked and disappointed.

Democrats aren’t in for a gentle thumping in this gubernatorial field. They’re poised for a violent thrashing.

At the moment, Democrats preside over 26 gubernatorial seats, with Republicans holding 23, and Charlie Crist holding down #50 in his new role as Independent. The best news for Democrats in this cycle is, perhaps unlike in the U.S. Senate races, they’re undoubtedly poised to flip a number of states from red to blue – among them, Hawaii, Connecticut, and Florida. For the time being, I also suspect they’ll triumph in Minnesota.

That’s about the most positive note I can give Dems. Otherwise, the 2010 gubernatorial field looks to be a living hell.

In my full list of projections below, you’ll notice that about twice as many candidates are in Safe/Likely/Lean GOP tiers than candidates in the same Democratic tiers. There’s also a whole boatload of toss-up races, and I expect, unless the environment greatly improves for Democrats, the GOP should have a strong leg-up among them, perhaps even ultimately sweeping them.

I’m sure many of my projections will elicit both curiosity and downright befuddlement, so feel free to challenge my rankings. I’d be more than happy to run-down some of these races with greater explanation. And, knowing me, I may have made an error in calculation. Perhaps my math is incorrect and the Democrats aren’t down miserably!

Dem – 20

GOP – 29

Indie – 1

Safe Dem (>20% victory):

Arkansas – Gov. Mike Beebe > State Sen. Jim Keet

New York – Attorney General Andrew Cuomo > businessman Carl Paladino or fmr. Rep. Rick Lazio

Likely Dem (10-20% victory):

Connecticut – businessman Ned Lamont or fmr. Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy > Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele or fmr. U.S. Ambassador Tom Foley

Hawaii – Rep. Neil Abercrombie or Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann > Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona

New Hampshire – Gov. John Lynch > businessman Jack Kimball, fmr. HHS Commissioner John Stephen, or activist Karen Testerman

Lean Dem (5-10% victory):

Colorado – Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper > fmr. Rep. Scott McInnis or businessman Dan Maes

Florida – State CFO Alex Sink > Attorney General Bill McCollum or businessman Rick Scott

Massachusetts – Gov. Deval Patrick > businessman Charles Baker (R) or State Treasurer Tim Cahill (I)

Maryland – Gov. Martin O’Malley > fmr. Gov. Bob Elrlich

Toss-up:

California – fmr. eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) > Attorney General Jerry Brown

Georgia – fmr. Rep. Nathan Deal or fmr. Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) > fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes (D)

Illinois – State Sen. Bill Brady (R) > Gov. Pat Quinn (D)

Maine – Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) > State Sen. President Libby Mitchell (D)

Minnesota – fmr. Sen. Mark Dayton, fmr. House Minority Leader Matt Entenze, or House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kellhier (D) > State Rep. Tom Emmer (R)

Michigan – Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Attorney General Mike Cox, Rep. Pete Hoekstra, or businessman Rick Snyder (R) > Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero or House Speaker Andy Dillon (D)

New Mexico – D.A. Susana Martinez (R) > Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D)

Ohio – fmr. Rep. John Kasich (R) > Gov. Ted Strickland (D)

Oregon – fmr. Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) > fmr. NBA player Chris Dudley (R)

Rhode Island – fmr. Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I) > State Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) or fmr. State Rep. Victor Moffitt (R)

Texas – Gov. Rick Perry (R) > fmr. Houston Mayor Bill White (D)

Wisconsin – fmr. Rep. Mark Neumann or Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) > Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D)

Lean GOP (5-10% victory):

Pennsylvania – Attorney General Tom Corbett > Alleghany County Executive Dan Onorato

Vermont – Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie > State Sen. Susan Bartlett, fmr. State Sen. Matt Dunne, Secretary of State Deb Markowitz, fmr. Lt. Gov. Doug Racine, or Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Shumlin

Likely GOP (10-20% victory):

Alabama – State Rep. Robert Bentley > Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks

Arizona – Gov. Jan Brewer > Attorney General Terry Goddard

Iowa – fmr. Gov. Terry Branstad > Gov. Chet Culver

Nevada – fmr. federal judge Brian Sandoval > Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid

Oklahoma – Rep. Mary Fallin > Lt. Gov. Jari Askins or Attorney General Drew Edmondson

South Carolina – State Rep. Nikki Haley > State Sen. Vincent Sheheen

Safe GOP (>20% victory):

Alaska – Gov. Sean Parnell > fmr. House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz or State Sen. Hollis French

Idaho – Gov. Butch Otter > activist Keith Allred

Kansas – Sen. Sam Brownback > State Sen. Tom Holland

Nebraska – Gov. Dave Heineman > ?

South Dakota – Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard > Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidiprem

Tennessee – Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, or Rep. Zach Wamp > businessman Mike McWheter

Utah – Gov. Gary Herbert > Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon

Wyoming – fmr. U.S. Attorney Matt Mead, state auditor Rita Meyer, fmr. Rep. Ron Micheli, or House Speaker Colin Simpson > state party chair Leslie Petersen

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

CT-Sen: Simmons Is Back-ish

Rob Simmons, as you’ll recall, “suspended” his Senate campaign in Connecticut after losing the GOP convention to Linda McMahon (meaning he basically stopped campaigning, but kept his money and a skeletal staff accessible). Last week, he said he was thinking about getting back in, but then a spokesperson walked that back. Today, without warning, Simmons began airing a TV spot, as follows:

“Today, it’s important to vote with your heart and your head. Bailouts and tax increases have crippled the economy and cost us jobs. Small business is our backbone. Let’s help them. National security must remain strong. Put your trust in the candidate who is and will be an advocate for veterans. These issues will have a lasting effect on our children. In the Republican primary on August tenth, you do have a choice. I’m Rob Simmons, I’m still on the ballot, and I approved this message.”

Nowhere does he say he’s a candidate, or that he’d like people’s vote for himself. Whatever he’s doing, though, he seems pretty serious about it: he’s spending $300K on the ads, which isn’t huge in Connecticut but definitely means he’s trying to reach lots of eyeballs, not just gin up some free media. The McMahon campaign is taking it seriously, too, sending out a release saying that they’re “confused” (as are the rest of us) but also accusing of going back on his word.

PS: There won’t be a Daily Digest for the next two days, seeing as how we will all be drinking discussing important policy issues at Netroots Nation. Hopefully we’ll be able to update with a few of the days’ most important items, though.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/21

• Election results: Last night’s Georgia primary election went pretty much as expected. The main surprise was the collapse of John Oxendine in the GOP gubernatorial primary, who had the most money and led most polls, but his collapse was plainly foreseeable via polls over the last few weeks. He finished fourth, behind Karen Handel and Nathan Deal (who’ll advance to the runoff, where the Palin-backed Handel will attack Deal for being corrupt and the Gingrich-backed Deal will attack Handel for being a RINO), and Eric Johnson. Ex-Gov. Roy Barnes locked down the Democratic nomination without a runoff. Labor Comm. Michael Thurmond easily advanced to face GOP incumbent Johnny Isakson in the Senate race.

In the House races, Dems in two of the three potentially competitive races in Georgia know who their opponents will be: Mike Keown in GA-02 and Austin Scott in GA-08 won without runoffs. John Barrow — who beat back a challenge from the left from Regina Thomas in GA-12 (with a final score of 58-42, as Thomas’s Savannah stronghold reported late) — will need to wait for a runoff between Ray McKinney and Carl Smith. Hank Johnson in GA-04 escaped his three-way primary against Vernon Jones and Connie Stokes without a runoff, too. Finally, two dark-red seats will feature GOP runoffs: GA-09’s newly-elected Rep. Tom Graves will face off yet again against Lee Hawkins, who lost the special election, while the GA-07 race features a runoff between Rob Woodall and Jody Hice.

• AR-Sen, AR-Gov: That internal poll from Blanche Lincoln didn’t seem to do anything to stem the gusher of bad polls. One additional poll came out yesterday, from Ipsos on behalf of Reuters. It finds John Boozman leading Lincoln 54-35. On the plus side, it also looks at the Governor’s race and finds that the Zata|3 poll finding only a 9-point lead for incumbent Dem Mike Beebe may have been a bit pessimistic. They find Beebe leading Republican challenger Jim Keet 57-35, more consistent with other polling.

• IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth is out with a new introductory TV ad in the Indiana Senate race. It focuses on his blue collar roots and his experience as Sheriff; there’s nary a mention of his time in Congress.

• LA-Sen: It turns out David Vitter may actually be a better family-values role model than his newly minted GOP primary opponent. Faulkner character State Rep. Noble Ellington says that Chet Traylor was “significantly involved” in his divorce from his ex-wife Peggy McDowell, who then married Traylor. Traylor is currently romantically involved with the estranged wife of one of his stepsons via McDowell. The two stepsons have also filed a lawsuit against Traylor, accusing him of hiding information about his financial assets, as part of their probate case concerning McDowell’s recent death without a will. (If someone wants to call me classist in the comments, please feel free, but I can’t help but notice that Traylor’s name is a homonym for a certain type of dwelling whose residents are stereotypically and often unfairly associated with such behavior.)

• WV-Sen, WV-Gov: As expected (at least as expected since late last night), Shelly Moore Capito announced this morning that she won’t run in the Senate special election in November, despite the nice Capito Carveout specifically designed by the legislature to facilitate her doing so. This leaves self-funding businessman John Raese the likely candidate. (In fact, he’d sounded likely to run in the primary with or without Capito, which may have been a major deterrent for Capito. She cited not wanting to run for two things at once, though, and the potential legal challenges to her doing so.) The primary is Aug. 28, so someone will need to fill the gap soon. West Virigina political analyst Hoppy Kercheval seemed to be the first to correctly diagnose the situation earlier yesterday, pointing out her risk-averse past.

There was one surprise, today, though: Joe Manchin drew a primary opponent, theoretically from the left. He was recently in the news for his staunch opposition to Mike Oliverio in WV-01; it’s former SoS and former Rep. Ken Hechler. Hechler, by the way, is 95 years old, older even than Robert Byrd was, so, well, take that for what it’s worth. Most of the speculation today instead seems to involve what happens with the Governorship. Succession laws aren’t very clear (and there’s no Lt. Gov.), but apparently State Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin will be acting Governor in the event of a Manchin move to the Senate. The bigger question is when the election to fill that job would occur: in a 2011 special election, or in 2012 when Manchin’s term would end anyway? Any discussion of GOP candidates for that begins and ends with Capito, but the Dem list is endless, ranging from temp Sen. Carte Goodwin to SoS Natalie Tennant, but almost certain to include state Treasurer John Perdue and state Sens. Jeff Kessler and Brooks McCabe.

• AL-Gov: Following the lead of Artur Davis on the Democratic side, Bradley Byrne finally got around to endorsing Robert Bentley, sticking his knife in his back a few more times along the way for good measure. His parting shot was that Bentley still needs to answer questions about his relationship with the teachers’ union, the Alabama Education Association.

• CO-Gov: OK, so it’s looking like if Scott McInnis does get kicked to the curb, no one is going to rally behind Dan Maes. His vaunted financial small-business acumen turned out to be a lot of inflated boasting, as newly-released tax returns reveal that his credit reporting business turns out to be a small operation and one that paid him earnings that put his family below the poverty line in 2005 and 2008. When asked how he made ends meet, he responded, “there are other ways to pay yourself than salary,” without further elaboration. Well, that’s true… are those ways legal, though?

• HI-Gov: After padding things out as long as he could, Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann finally resigned his day job today and launched his gubernatorial campaign in earnest. Hawaii has a “resign to run” law, so Hannemann wasn’t officially running until now, despite having been transparently campaigning for many months in the Dem primary against Neil Abercrombie.

• MA-Gov: Massachusetts Citizens for Life endorsed ex-Dem indie candidate Tim Cahill, rather than Republican Charlie Baker. Baker, from the moderate blue-blood side of the party, is pro-choice.

• NV-Gov (pdf): PPP’s Tom Jensen finds it ironic that somehow the Nevada GOP managed to pick the strongest possible Republican for the gubernatorial race and the weakest possible one for the Senate race. The telegenic and inoffensive Brian Sandoval is somehow managing to avoid having his GOP predecessor Jim Gibbons’ unpopularity (25/63) rub off on him (Sandoval is at 42/31). Sandoval leads Rory Reid (who’s at 34/48) by 52-38 in the general election.

• RI-Gov: Bill Clinton will be appearing in Rhode Island on behalf of Democratic candidate Frank Caprio, last man standing in the Dem primary, on July 29. Caprio backed Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary.

• WI-Gov: Fundraising numbers in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race are out. Democrat Tom Barrett raised $2.39 million in the period of January through June, while GOPers Scott Walker and Mark Neumann raised $2.59 million and $1.96 million respectively (although some of Neumann’s money seems to be out of his own pocket). In terms of CoH, it’s Barrett (with no primary opposition) with $2.89 million, Walker with $2.57 million, and Neumann with $1.05 million.

• IA-02: Marianette Miller-Meeks, the ophthalmologist who lost severely to David Loebsack in 2008, is back for a rematch, and seems to be in better shape this time (better, even, than Raul Labrador), if her own internal is to be believed. Her poll from Susquehanna Polling & Research gives Loebsack a 46-41 lead.

• NJ-03: The Courier-Post wonders aloud “who the heck is Peter DeStefano?” That’s because no one really seems to know. He’s the independent Tea Party candidate in the 3rd, who hasn’t done anything to promote himself and whose main claim to fame was polling in the double-digits in John Adler’s recent internal poll where he was dominating Jon Runyan. This led, naturally, to GOP claims that DeStefano was some sort of plant from the Adler camp. DeStefano denies that, but isn’t helping matters with his pattern of ducking publicity, not just among the teabagging rank and file but even with the Courier-Post too.

• PA-11: Naturally, it’s never a sign of strength for an incumbent to go negative on his challenger this early… but it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that Paul Kanjorski is in a heap of trouble in his rematch against Lou Barletta. But Kanjorski may feel he’s not only better served by localizing, not nationalizing his race, but also that he has a target-rich environment for hits on Barletta, given Barletta’s tenure as mayor of city of Hazleton, which has the highest unemployment in the state and whose local government is in danger of going into receivership.

• TX-06: I suppose this is an example of karma at work. Rep. Joe Barton’s campaign fund took a loss of $154K over the last three months because of hits to its investments… perhaps most significantly, because of losses at BP.

• RNC: It seems like Michael Steele can say all the dumb things he wants and keep his job (fo shizzle), but could financial mismanagement be the straw that breaks the camel’s back? The RNC has had to report new debts that were kept off the books by staffers loyal to Steele, and treasurer Randy Pullen (not a Steele ally) is going public alleging that the debts go much deeper than what was reported to the FEC, claiming that more than another $7 million in debt is out there. The dispute is likely to dominate matters at the RNC’s annual meeting in two weeks. This also leads to speculation that American Crossroads, the Karl Rove 527 operation that finally seemed to kick into high gear last month, will be the de facto main source for independent expenditures this year while the RNC sputters.

• House: Well, it looks like we’re stuck with 435 for the foreseeable future. A federal district court ruled against the plaintiffs in a lawsuit that claimed that only 435 seats was unconstitutional under 14th Amendment grounds, because of malapportionment between different states (i.e. Montana and Wyoming each getting one Rep., despite their population differences).

• Rasmussen:

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 41%, Rand Paul (R) 49%

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 36%

• MN-Gov: Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 35%

• MN-Gov: Matt Entenza (D) 37%, Tom Emmer (R) 36%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43%, John Kasich (R) 48%

FL-Gov: GOP Brawl Catapults Sink Into Lead

PPP (pdf) (7/16-18, Florida voters, 3/5-8 in parentheses):

Alex Sink (D): 36 (NA)

Rick Scott (R): 30 (NA)

Bud Chiles (I): 13 (NA)

Undecided: 22 (NA)

Alex Sink (D): 37 (31)

Bill McCollum (R): 23 (44)

Bud Chiles (I): 14 (NA)

Undecided: 26 (25)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

This is a dramatically different race from the last time that PPP polled it in March: Rick Scott arrived on the right, and unleashed a multi-million dollar barrage of ads against Bill McCollum, and Bud Chiles plunked his rather small, beat-up flag in the middle, perhaps hoping to be the only survivor after everyone else nuked each other. If PPP’s new poll numbers are any indication, things aren’t going the way either of them planned: the civil war between Scott and McCollum seems to be irreparably damaging them, and Sink, rather than Chiles, seems to be the main beneficiary so far.

Scott and McCollum — who both seemed extremely personally unlikeable even before their primary began — seem to have reduced each other to off-the-charts levels of toxicity. Scott’s favorables are 23/41, while McCollum’s are an unbelievable 16/51 (levels previously reserved only for Dick Cheney and David Paterson). Sink’s the only person in positive territory, probably by virtue of being less-known, at 24/22. A post-primary unity rally between Scott and McCollum’s supporters seems unlikely to succeed: PPP also rolled out numbers yesterday showing that among Scott supporters, McCollum’s favorables are 7/65, and among McCollum supporters, Scott’s favorables are 4/62. With a late primary (Aug. 24), there would be little time for healing left anyway. If these numbers hold, despite a humdrum campaign so far, Alex Sink could wind up being the Democrats’ second luckiest sucker in November (as no one can top Harry Reid).