Month: July 2010

Throughout the years, we election junkies have seen some pretty spectacular campaigns, and some, well, less so ones.

But this year, Democrats face an uphill battle in holding on to their large congressional majorities.

It’s no secret that the House of Representatives (and the Senate for the more pessimistic) is in play.

However, if Democrats have one thing going for them, it is the quality of their candidates and the campaigns they are running.

The Democratic coalition is diverse. It includes minorities, college-educated whites, labour unions, and event remnants of the once “Solid South.”

This diversity allows for Democrats to nominate candidates that fit their district’s voting patterns (hey, what a concept). This goes to include a Bobby Bright in Alabama, a Mark Warner in Virginia, a Brian Schweitzer in Montana, and a Mike Capuano in Boston.

In contrast, Republicans have severely handicapped themselves by nominating candidates like a Rand Paul in Kentucky, a Raul Labrador in Idaho, and a Bill Brady in Illinois (hat tip http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Despite all this, it is not just the candidate that makes the race, but also the campaign (Hi Congressman Mark Critz).

And the campaign that I’ve been the most impressed with is that of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Now, Sen. Reid was given a huge gift in the form of Sharron Angle. The former assemblywoman is a certified nut job, and her many gaffes provide ample fodder for campaign ads.

However, if there is a graphic that sums up the effectiveness of campaigns this year, look no further than PPP’s latest polling roundup:

http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

The graph on the page there shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of each candidate, the net balance, and the percent unknown.

That last data point is the one I want to focus the remainder of this diary.

Let’s look at the candidates. You have a former state attorney general, a former congressman, a former congressman/former OMB director, a current congressman, a former CEO, a former state speaker of the house, a current congressman/former minority whip/father of the previous governor, and a former state assemblywoman.

Some of those are highly visible roles and titles and appear to be prime examples of normal Senate hopefuls, well that is except a former assemblywoman.

Yet the Reid campaign has made the name recognition of a former assemblywoman higher than any of the other candidates in any of the other races.

Sharron Angle’s unknown rating is 12%. To put that in context, I’d say that hovers near the Senator’s own rating and is probably well ahead of the state’s own embattled, lame duck sitting governor.

That is why Sen. Reid will win in Nevada in November, and will be joined in the Senate by Sens. Carnahan, Crist, Boxer, Feingold, Fisher, Sestak, Giannoulias, and Bennet.

It’s time for the second edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate.  We’ve just past the petitioning and July filing deadlines, and this edition is all about the numbers.

As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag.  You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page.  If you’d like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed.  –Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

Senate Democrats announced record fundraising numbers this past week, reporting a historic $3.5 million raised during the first six months of the year. We now have $3.5 million in cash on hand – more than twice the amount of money we had at this point two years ago, when we went on to pick up two seats in the November elections and take control of the Senate for the first time in decades. After all the numbers came in, Senate Democrats reported a combined $25 million in fundraising for re-election efforts over the last 20 months, $10 million more than GOP lawmakers.

Newsday: On and off L.I., state Senate Dems tout petition and fund totals. Dan Janison, of Newsday, wrote a piece on how Senate Democrats are “blowing our political horns” with our impressive fundraising and petition totals. He specifically mentioned the strength of two Long Island campaigns:Sen. Brian Foley’s, which has over $240,000 cash on hand and filed 4,073 Democratic signatures with the Suffolk County Board of Elections -four times the amount required to qualify for the ballot; and Regina Calcaterra’s, who has raised $260,000 since announcing her candidacy this year and now has nearly $180,000 in cash on hand.

Maggie Haberman of  POLITICO coined 2010 the ‘Year of the Woman’ in an extensive piece that hailed our “unprecedented slate of 10 female hopefuls… in districts ranging from swing-county Suffolk in Long Island to more rural areas of upstate New York.” Jimmy Vielkind of the Albany Times Union later chimed in, wondering if “dissatisfaction with the state of state [will] cause voters to think gender at polls?” He noted that our crop of 10 women candidates may benefit from the palpable anti-incumbency sentiment.

NARAL Pro-Choice New York announced their first round of endorsements in the 2010 election and named the following Democratic candidates for State Senate as 100% pro-choice candidates: Regina Calcaterra, Dave Mejias, Carol Gordon, Mike Gianaris, Didi Barrett, Susan Savage, Kathleen Joy, Pam Mackesey, and Robin Wilt. Not a single Republican Senate candidate was endorsed by NARAL.

Eleanor’s Legacy announced the endorsement of two more State Senate candidates: Cynthia Appleton and Pam Mackesey. This makes an unprecedented seven start-up grants that Eleanor’s Legacy has provided to our candidates this election cycle. They have previously endorsed Didi Barrett, Robin Wilt, Regina Calcaterra, Joanne Yepsen, and Mary Wilmot.

Former Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias is running strong against 21-year Republican incumbent Kemp Hannon and announced he has raised $116,925 and has $112,921 cash on hand . Mejias also released a campaign kick-off video, in which he denounced the dysfunction in Albany.

Joanne Yepsen announced that she raised more than three times as much as her opponent since she announced her candidacy less than three months ago. Yepsen brought in a total $70,000, and currently has $60,000 cash on hand. Her opponent, Roy McDonald, shockingly announced that his cash on hand actually went down over the past six months. After starting January with $48,000 in the bank, he now has just $44,000.

Didi Barrett reported that she raised over $160,000 since declaring her candidacy just three months ago . The number far surpasses the amount of cash her opponent, a 30-year Albany insider, had on hand when Barrett entered the race. The campaign also collected 3,700 signatures — almost four times the required amount to get on the ballot.

Susan Savage, running against 34-year Republican incumbent Hugh Farley, reported that she raised more than $75,000 for her campaign — almost twice what Farley reported raising over the same time period. “If we want to change Albany, we have to change who we send to Albany. This filing is a clear sign that the people of New York agree,” said Doug Forand, one of Savage’s campaign advisers.

Sen. Darrel Aubertine had an impressive week: he received the Rural Schools Association ‘Appreciation Award, was deemed a “hero” by the New York Farm Bureau, and outraised his GOP opponent. The New York State Rural Schools Association honored Sen. Aubertine with its annual Appreciation Award for his work on behalf of rural schools while Peter Gregg, a New York Farm Bureau spokesman, called him a “hero” and added “we are extremely grateful for Sen. Aubertine. He worked miracles to get the funding restored at the levels at which he did. There was absolutely no money and he somehow found it.” Later in the week, Sen. Aubertine announced he has outraised his opponent by about $24,000 during the first six months of the year. Sen. Aubertine raised over $87,000 in the period, and now has over $159,000 in cash on hand – or about $110,000 more than his opponent

Sen. William Stachowski announced that he now has over $287,000 in cash on hand, after raising nearly $142,000 over the past six months. He also submitted 3,447 signatures on his ballot petitions, well over the required amount to gain ballot access. “Voters in my district are coming to appreciate the importance of qualified, independent representation,” he said. Sen. Stachowski also received the backing of the Independence Party and will appear on their ballot line this fall.

Sen. David Valesky posted impressive fundraising totals, while his Republican challengers are mired in a costly primary battle. Sen. Valesky raised $200,000 over the past six months, and has $465,580 in his campaign coffers. He also received the backing of the Independence Party over his opponent, little-known pianist Andrew Russo.

Tony Avella, running against 38-year Republican incumbent Frank Padavan, received the endorsement of City Council Member Margaret Chin – the first Asian American and the first Chinese American elected to represent New York City’s Chinatown in the city council, and the first Asian American woman elected to the city council.  “Tony Avella is the kind of elected leader that we need in Albany,” stated Council Member Chin, standing in front of the Flushing Public Library. “He has remained a champion for good government and consistently fought for his constituents while a member of the New York City Council.”

Finally, Regina Calcaterra’s campaign launched a new website, and hit their opponent Ken LaValle for improperly using his tax-payer-funded government site to launch political attacks against Democrats.

REPUBLICANS

Siena’s most recent election poll spells trouble for the GOP, showing that less than one in four voters want a Republican Senate, and 69% of voters preferred the existing or an enlarged Democratic majority. In upstate New York – where Republicans sit in most of the Senate seats – just 26% of those polled wanted Republican control of the Senate, as opposed to the 68% who favored Democratic control. Voters upstate are far more pessimistic about the direction of the state – with 86% saying we are on the wrong track – and more likely to vote their incumbent Senator out of office. This is the just the latest in a series of polls that have consistently indicated trouble for Republicans and their electoral prospects this November.

Newsday reported that at a screening for a possible endorsement of Lee Zeldin, the Republican candidate running against Democratic Sen. Brian Foley, Zeldin “turned angry”  when his military record came up. James LaCarrubba, Brian Foley’s top aide, said no one questions Zeldin’s service, just his demeanor. “We appreciate his service. But this is a man who wants to represent 300,000 people. And a candidate in a room full of people should be able to control his temper,” he said.

A Westchester County business group backed off supporting three Republican candidates  for state senate after some members expressed alarm over the sudden foray into partisan politics. The Business Council of Westchester offered an apology to its members and Council President and CEO Marsha Gordon, in an e-mail to members, apologized “for deviating from our tradition of being nonpartisan” and promised to return any checks.

Democratic Candidate Regina Calcaterra criticized her opponent, 34-year Republican incumbent Ken LaValle, for knowingly deceiving voters on Eastern Long Island about his support for jobs creation, saying he supported a measure to fund small businesses — after he voted to kill the legislation that created it.

There’s a tuppeny hapenny millionaire – looking for a fourpenny one. Here are the June fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (May numbers are here):

Just a quick note on the Dem vs. GOP cash disparities: In March, it was $21.5 mil, then $18.6 mil, then $18.0 mil, and now it’s down to $16.1 mil $18.1 mil.

UPDATE: I made a mistake and misreported the cash-on-hand totals for both the DSCC and NRSC. Both sets of numbers were in fact higher than I reported, the DSCC moreso than the NRSC, meaning the Dems added more net cash overall.

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

According to the Times, the Republican Party has selected Tampa to host the 2012 Republican National Convention. Located in the vital swing state Florida, Republican intentions with this pick are fairly straightforward.

Not all national conventions take place in swing states. This impression may be due to 2008, when both parties held conventions in fairly competitive (or not, as it turned out) states. In 2004, however, Republicans held their convention in New York City; Democrats in Boston.

On the other hand, holding national conventions in swing states does constitute good strategy. After Democrats held their 2008 convention in Denver, Colorado ended up voting more Democratic than the nation for the first time since 1964. Likewise, the Minneapolis Republican convention helped Senator John McCain stay competitive in Minnesota weeks after Michigan and Wisconsin began moving Democratic. Choosing Tampa is another variation on this strategy.

Tampa, highly populated and fairly diverse, is a good place to hold a political convention.

More below.

While the city itself probably votes fairly Democratic, the larger  surrounding suburbs lean Republican. The convergence of these forces creates a very competitive environment. Hillsborough  County, which Tampa is located in, has gone within single digits for the past five straight presidential elections. Whoever wins the Tampa area stands a good chance of winning the state.

Florida itself constitutes a Republican-leaning swing state. This is somewhat surprising; at first glance, Florida looks like a typical Democratic-voting state. Diverse, urbanized, and heavily populated, Florida has more in common with blue California and New York than red Alabama or Kansas. The state, moreover, is becoming more minority-heavy as white retirees are replaced by Latino immigrants.

Yet a number of factors combine to make Florida a red-leaning swing state rather than a blue stronghold. Deeply conservative northern Florida, which is more like rural Georgia than Miami, gives Republicans an immediate base. Many white voters are elderly, conservative-leaning retirees. And – unlike most immigrants – the Cuban immigrant community votes strongly Republican, undercutting the Democratic stronghold in South Florida.

Florida has even been drifting right in presidential elections. President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore performed respectably in the state, but Senator John Kerry lost by a sobering margin. Mr. McCain was particularly strong in Florida; he would have won the state by 4.4% given a tied electorate.

This is strange. By all rights, a place like Florida ought to be shifting Democratic, especially given its demographic changes (the opposite is true for much of the Rustbelt Midwest). Yet in the short-term the state has moving in the opposite direction.

When Republicans hold their convention in Tampa, they will attempt to keep Florida in this condition for another presidential election. It is a clever move by a clever party.

SurveyUSA (7/16-19, likely voters, no trend lines):

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 35

Rob Hurt (R): 58

Jeff Clark (I): 4

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Whoa — those are some dreadful numbers for Tom Perriello. But let’s first compare this poll to SUSA’s final poll of this race from 2008. In that one, SUSA’s likely voter universe was 40% Democratic and 38% Republican. This time, it’s 42% Republican and 27% Democratic. In 2008, SUSA pegged the electorate as 22% black — this time, just 13%. Furthermore, African-American voters give 27% of their votes to Hurt in this poll, a significantly higher share than the 13% given to Goode. Young voters, too, have completely flipped against Perriello; Hurt racks up a 62-30 lead among 18-to-34 year-olds after Perriello rocked Goode among those voters by a 61-34 margin two years ago.

Back in February, Public Policy Polling released a poll showing Perriello and Hurt tied. That poll, which used a slightly softer likely voter screen, had a 39D-35R sample, was 24% African-American, and had a sub-sample of 18-to-29 year-olds who favored Perriello by a slim 45-42 margin.

Which poll are you buying stock in?

Good news if true:

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) has decided she will not run to replace Sen. Robert C. Byrd (D-W.Va.), three sources familiar with her plans said Tuesday night.

Capito was the favorite on the GOP side, and state legislators gained a concession in a special-election bill passed Monday that would have allowed her to run for both reelection and in the Senate race at the same time.

But, even with that fallback plan, sources tell The Fix that the she has opted not to run.

Wonder who they’ll put up against Joe “The Manchine” Manchin. While I know the GOP’s bench in West Virginia is notoriously weak, nonetheless it’ll be kind of amazing if they can’t make anything out of this opportunity in such a good year for them – especially in a state so implacably hostile to Obama and national Democrats. Anyhow, assuming Capito makes this official, we plan to rate this race as “Likely D.”

11:30pm: The AP has called the last race we were watching, in GA-07. The race to succeed John Linder will be heading to a runoff between Rob Woodall (37) and Jody Hice (26). Clay Cox (20) didn’t make it. And with that, we seem to be through for the night.

11:11pm: A few more calls on the GOP sides in the House races. GA-08 has been called for Austin Scott, who clears the bar at 53%. In GA-09, Tom Graves (at 49%) and Lee Hawkins (27) got called for a runoff. And in GA-12, Ray McKinney (43) and Carl Smith (27) are officially runoff-bound.

11:04pm: The AP has called the Dem primary in GA-04 for Hank Johnson, without a runoff. He’s at 55, with 27 for Vernon Jones and 18 for Connie Stokes.

10:43pm: Well, that’s it for the Ox. The AP just called Nathan Deal as the other participant in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. With 80% reporting it’s Handel 33, Deal 24, Johnson 20, and Oxendine 17.

10:25pm: Bad news… with 82% reporting, Austin Scott’s up to 53% in the GOP primary in the 8th. I’d rather have Jim Marshall face him after having gotten beaten up in a runoff. On the other hand, in the super-red 9th, Tom Graves is sinking, down to 49%, with 86% reporting. Looks like he’s likely to face Screamin’ Lee Hawkins for a fourth time this year, in another runoff.

10:23pm: At least one member of the Porter household is going home happy tonight; Carol Porter has been called the winner of the Democratic Lt. Governor primary.

10:10pm: The AP has put a big “R” next to Karen Handel’s name (for runoff, presumably), but no call yet for Nathan Deal on joining her.

10:06pm: John Barrow is leading Regina Thomas 68-32 in GA-12 on the D side, with half reporting, but still no AP call.

10:04pm: And I think the candidate for the biggest upset of the night is GA-07 on the GOP side, where the highly-touted state Rep. Clay Cox isn’t even making the runoff. Linder CoS Rob Woodall is at 38 and talk radio host Jody Hice is at 26, with Cox at 19. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer teabagger.

10:02pm: With more than half reporting, Hank Johnson’s still in the safety zone in the D primary for GA-04. He’s at 55, with 27 for Vernon Jones and 18 for Connie Stokes.

10:00pm: In case you were wondering about GA-02, the AP has called the GOP primary for state Rep. Mike Keown, with 80% against scattered opposition. He’s fundraised fairly well, so Sanford Bishop will have to take this one seriously in November.

9:57pm: With 56% reporting, we’re seeing John Oxendine slipping into 4th place, not that that matters other than for reverse-bragging rights. It’s Handel 32, Deal 25, Johnson 19, Oxendine 18.

9:33pm: Major excitement in both GA-08 and GA-09. (By SSP standards, which, admittedly, are pretty low.) Austin Scott has noodged just ahead of 50% in the 8th, up to 51%, with about half reporting. And in the 9th Graves is right about 50%.

9:26pm: The AP has now leapfrogged the GA SoS as being the fastest results outlet, so retrain your sites on either the AP or Politico links below. And guess what? They just called the Democratic gubernatorial nomination for Roy Barnes, who has 63% of the vote with 45.5% reporting. On the GOP side, Handel leads Deal by 33-25.

9:05pm: With 21% in, the GOP side of the governor’s race is further solidifying. It’s Handel 33, Deal 25, Oxendine 18, and Johnson 18. Oxendine might be lucky to make 3rd place.

9:00pm: I think this is going to be the night’s most exciting race: Austin Scott vs. the runoff line, in GA-08 on the GOP side. He’s currenly at precisely 50.0%, with 36% reporting. Ken DeLoach is 2nd, at 33.

8:57pm: The runoff is in three weeks, on 8/10. I can only imagine how Georgians are going to spend the next three weeks getting intimately acquainted with all the details about Nathan Deal’s family’s auto salvage business.

8:52pm: Another gubernatorial update. Barnes is at 58%, looks like he can go on vacation salt away money while Handel and Deal fight the runoff. I say Handel and Deal because Oxendine keeps dwindling: it’s currently Handel 30, Deal 27, Oxendine 19, Johnson 17.

8:38pm: Fail of the day: Oxendine is in 4th place in his home county, Gwinnett.

8:36pm: In the gube race, Roy Barnes is pulling further ahead, beating Baker 57-21 with 13% in. On the GOP side, it’s Handel 31, Deal 25, Oxendine 19, Johnson 17.

8:34pm: Ah, that’s better. Hank Johnson has righted his capsizing island, with 7% in in the 4th. He’s up to 56% now, with 24 for Jones and 20 for Stokes.

8:32pm: Maybe Clay Cox wasn’t in the driver’s seat as much as I’d thought, in GA-07. With 8% in, he’s trailing former John Linder CoS Rob Woodall, 38-23. Radio talk show host Jody Hice is nipping at his heels, too, at 20.

8:30pm: We’ve finally got some action in GA-04. With only 1% reporting, things haven’t really solidified yet, but the numbers show Hank Johnson in the lead but below the runoff line. He’s at 47, with Vernon Jones at 30 and Connie Stokes at 23.

8:20pm: Mildly amusing: In GA-13, BaseConnect client Deborah Honeycutt is losing to businessman Mike Crane by 34-28 according to the GA SoS. Honeycutt earned headlines last cycle for raising and spending an absurd $5 million in her unsuccessful campaign against Democrat David Scott. (Most of that money, as you may recall went straight back to BaseConnect, which at that time was still called BMW Direct.) Honeycutt’s fundraising hasn’t been the same this cycle, though.

8:16pm: In GA-09, Rep. Tom Graves might get forced into yet another runoff. He’s hovering at 48.5% right now, with Steve Tarvin and Lee Hawkins splitting the anti-Graves vote.

8:14pm: I know the Dem AG primary was grabbing a lot of attention. It didn’t turn out to be very competitive, either: it’s Hodges 72, Teilhet 28.

8:11pm: On the Dem side in the governor’s race, Barnes is still holding at 54. Baker is at 20, Poythress is overperforming (relatively speaking) at 10, and Porter is at 8. And in the Dem Senate primary, not much to see, with Michael Thurmond at 82, R.J. Hadley at 18.

8:09pm: And with that, Deal’s in 2nd. With 7% reporting statewide, it’s now Handel 31, Deal 24, Oxendine 20, Johnson 15. Has the Ox been gored?

8:07pm: We’re up to 5% reporting statewide, and Nathan Deal’s starting to creep back up. Now it’s Handel 32, Oxendine 22, Deal 21, Johnson 15.

8:05pm: Here’s a small surprise: it looks like NRCC prize pick Austin Scott may need to go to a runoff in the GOP primary in GA-08. Even though most of his competition dropped out, pastor Ken DeLoach is still faring pretty well. Scott leads DeLoach 46-34, with someone named Diane Vann at 19.

8:02pm: In the House races, we’re getting a clearer picture in the 12th: Regina Thomas is definitely performing better this year, but still not enough. With 7%, Barrow leads Thomas 64-36, about where a lot of those other HCR-related primary challenges to Blue Dogs wound up. It looks like we’ll have to go to a runoff to find who Barrow’s opponent will be (probably between Ray McKinney (40) and Carl Smith (26)).

8:00pm: Things are smoothing out a little now that we’re up to 2% reporting. (Those first counties, esp. Fannin, appear to be in Deal’s GA-09.) Handel’s at 28, Oxendine at 24, Deal at 19, and Johnson at 18. On the Dem side, Barnes is still above the runoff line at 54 with Baker at 22.

7:45pm: Some very early votes are in, and so far, Barnes leads Baker by 55-18. Nathan Deal (!) leads Oxendine by 34-24, but this is still way early.

---

This thing is about to go off.

RESULTS: Associated Press | GA SoS | Politico

Hello SSP! We just wanted to make sure that those of you in Illinois or with friends/family in Illinois know that Bill Brady has built a 17 year political career consistently working against the interests of working women, and how that will affect him in this campaign.

As is this is all about politics here at SSP, not necessarily policy, it’s important to note how women are slipping away from the Brady campaign. See Rich Miller’s article analyzing a Rasmussen poll taken before the Stop Bill Brady campaign launched by the DGA:

http://tinyurl.com/2cyvs53

If you’d like to see the latest ad hitting Bill Brady on issues important to working women, take a minute to visit our new website, http://www.StopBillBrady.com, and watch the video highlighting Bill Brady’s opposition to working women, his opposition to Equal Pay, his opposition to paid family medical leave, his opposition to paid maternity leave, his opposition to life-saving mammogram screenings and his opposition to a woman’s right to choose, even in the case of rape.

Here’s a sampling of what voters in Illinois will learn by November:

* Bill Brady opposed enhanced penalties for domestic abuse.

* Bill Brady sponsored bill to allow pharmacists to deny women contraception based on their personal beliefs.

* Bill Brady voted against creating the Minority and Female Franchise Act.

* Bill Brady was one of two reps who voted against a bill that required mothers be provided with a minimum of 48 hours of in-patient care after delivery and a minimum of 96 hours of in-patient care following a C-section.

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg!  If you’re as disturbed by the idea of a Bill Brady as Governor of Illinois as we are, then you’ll see why this will have a real impact on this race.

If you’re on Facebook or Twitter, make sure you “like” us and follow us:

http://www.facebook.com/StopBi…

http://twitter.com/StopBillBrady

Thanks!

The Interactive Team at StopBillBrady.com

P.S. We promise to read any thoughts and questions posted in the comments.

• AR-Sen (pdf): One more poll added to Blanche Lincoln’s woes today. It’s from Republican pollster Magellan, and unlike a number of their polls lately that have been sua sponte, this one is on behalf of the conservative Judicial Crisis Network. It gives John Boozman a 60-29 lead over Lincoln. Lincoln decided to put a stop to the string of polls showing her DOA, by (taking a page from Raul Labrador here) releasing her own internal from Benenson showing her, well, only a little bit dead. It has her trailing Boozman “only” 45-36, with 6 going to indie Trevor Drown.

• KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA looks at the statewide primaries in Kansas yet again, and, as usual, finds Rep. Jerry Moran with a big lead over fellow Rep. Todd Tiahrt in the GOP Senate primary, 50-36 (which is actually an improvement for Tiahrt; the last SUSA poll was 53-33). College professor Lisa Johnston continues to lead the Dem Senate primary at 23, with 14 for Charles Schollenberger and 12 for state Sen. David Haley. The GOP gubernatorial primary continues to be a non-event, with Sam Brownback leading Joan Heffington 73-19.

• NE-Sen (pdf): Magellan, on behalf of JCN, is also out with a poll of the 2012 Senate race, presumably intended to scare Ben Nelson into voting against Elena Kagan. At this rate, it may not matter how he votes on Kagan or anything else: if he runs again, Nelson is losing to GOP Gov. Dave Heineman 58-28.

• NH-Sen: The Paul Hodes campaign continues to hit Kelly Ayotte over her being asleep at the switch on mortgage fraud with another ad on the topic. It’s a $100K ad buy, and it’s going up in Boston, meaning that it’ll hit a lot of eyeballs (but also that that $100K gets burned through pretty quickly).

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak has been fighting with local TV stations over them airing an ad from a conservative group attacking him on Israel policy. Now he’s getting some backing from liberal Israel policy group J Street, who are running a new TV spot saying he “consistently votes for aid to Israel.” NWOTSOTB, but it is running “in major media markets.”

• SC-Sen: Green, not Greene? The Columbia area AFL-CIO must not have been impressed with Alvin Greene’s first major policy speech last weekend, because now they’ve rolled out their endorsement of Green Party candidate Tom Clements instead.

• WI-Sen (pdf): But wait, there’s more! With your purchase of these fine AR-Sen and NE-Sen polls, you also get a bonus WI-Sen poll, perfect for triggering one of Russ Feingold’s patented flashes of maverickiness. Magellan, on behalf, of JCN, also finds Feingold leading Ron Johnson 45-43.

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy got the endorsement of the six state affiliates of the SEIU in Connecticut, a key union endorsement. Ned Lamont isn’t hurting for union backing, though; he has the support of the Connecticut Education Association, the UAW, and the UFCW.

• MI-Gov: The Detroit News poll from yesterday also had a Democratic primary component to it. They find, with only weeks to go, Undecided still in the lead at 40. Andy Dillon leads Virg Bernero 34-25. 44% of respondents haven’t heard of Bernero, while 26% don’t know Dillon. On the GOP side, this may give some more moderate cred to Rick Snyder: he got the endorsement of ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, who had briefly considered an independent run for Governor himself.

• MT-Gov: GOPers already have a candidate for Governor in 2012 in Montana, where Brian Schweitzer is termed out. Republican former state Senate minority leader Corey Stapleton just announced his bid. The article mentions some other possibilities too, including long-ago ex-Rep. Rick Hill on the GOP side. AG Steve Bullock may be the Dems’ best bet.

• FL-02: Politico has a profile of Rep. Allen Boyd, who’s getting squeezed both left and right as he first faces state Sen. Al Lawson in the Dem primary and then faces funeral home owner Steve Southerland. Boyd’s response? To play “offense,” including going negative in TV ads against Lawson. Boyd’s already spent $1.9 million this cycle, and still has many times more CoH than his two opponents together.

• NY-15: Buried deep in a Hill article about how Chuck Schumer is still standing up for Charles Rangel when no one else will, kicking him a $10K check for his re-election, is a noteworthy poll of the Dem primary. The poll was conducted by PPP, and was paid for by Democrats.com; it finds Rangel with a not-very-imposing lead of 39-21 over Adam Clayton Powell IV in the primary.

• NY-23: After being the flavor of the month for, well, a month or so prior to last fall’s NY-23 special election, Doug Hoffman seems to have fallen off most people’s radars. He wants you to know he’s still around, though, and just released an internal poll from McLaughlin & Associates that gives him a sizable lead over Matt Doheny (who has most of the local GOP establishment backing) in the GOP primary. He leads Doheny 52-20. Bear in mind, of course, that Hoffman already has the Conservative line and Doheny has the IP line, meaning they’re going to meet in the general election (and spoil each other’s days) either way.

• TN-09: Finally, here’s a poll of the Dem primary in the 9th. It looks like former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton is having the same trouble playing the race card that Nikki Tinker did in 2008; he’s trailing Steve Cohen by a 65-15 margin. The poll’s not an internal, taken by Yacoubian Research for WMC-TV, but there’s one reason to raise an eyebrow at it: it screens voters by asking them if they’re in the 9th District (and how many people in the real world know the number of their congressional district?).

• Rasmussen:

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 40%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Peter Schiff (R) 34%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Rob Simmons (R) 38%

• ID-Sen: Tom Sullivan (D) 27%, Mike Crapo (R-inc) 64%

• ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 31%, Paul LePage (R) 39%, Eliot Cutler (I) 15%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 39%, Rob Portman (R) 45%

Public Policy Polling (7/16-18, Florida voters, 3/5-8 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (25)

Marco Rubio (R): 29 (34)

Charlie Crist (I): 35 (27)

Alex Snitker (L): 4 (n/a)

Undecided: 15 (14)

Jeff Greene (D): 13

Marco Rubio (R): 29

Charlie Crist (I): 38

Alex Snitker (L): 3

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±3.3%)

These are pretty nice numbers for Crist, who’s enjoying a remarkable turnaround since March by effectively supplanting Meek as the Democratic nominee in all but title. Crist is winning 44% of Democrats vs. 35% for Meek, and 52% when Greene’s name is on the ballot. Of course, holding together a coalition of voters that includes nearly a quarter of Republicans, 40% of independents, and nearly half of Democrats is a narrow line to walk for the next four months.

Crist is certainly enjoying the external benefits of the Dem-on-Dem fratricide between Meek and Greene, but I have to wonder which candidate he’d prefer to face in the fall. Meek is undeniably the more credible candidate, and pulls more Democrats from Crist’s column, but he should be pretty badly bruised by Greene’s moneybombs come September. That said, Greene is the less appealing general election choice, but this billionaire crumb-bum will be able to run as many negative ads as he can dream of after the primary.

Another interesting stat, as highlighted by Tom Jensen, is that Crist’s voters would rather see him caucus with the Senate Democrats by a 55-22 spread. Once elected, Crist will know who sent them there. I’d expect him to vote (and caucus) accordingly.