Since we’ve had some chatter in the comments on the subject lately, it’s high time we included another demographic poll in the Weekly Open Thread. So please take a moment to respond to our poll, either by checking below the fold or clicking here. I’m curious to see if the age of the average Swingnut has moved at all in recent years.
Loading ...• CO-Sen: On the Democratic side, we have a heart-warming love-in between Michael Bennet and Andrew Romanoff, bitter rivals until about 48 hours ago. Romanoff said supporting Bennet was “an easy call,” while Bennet praised Romanoff for his stances on the issues, especially campaign finance reform. On the Republican side, well, there are no plans for a comparable unity event between Ken Buck and Jane Norton. Buck did raise some eyebrows with news that he went the full-on Paulist last year, though, lauding the gold standard and saying the main thing that would keep us from doing it is because there isn’t enough gold available to do so (well, maybe we could stimulate the economy by hiring hundreds of thousands of grizzled prospectors to go out and find us that gold…).
• DE-Sen: Is this a sign of unprecedented confidence in Delaware, as the GOP is spinning it… or worries that they need to bolster their preferred candidate Mike Castle, over unelectable-in-November Christine O’Donnell in the primary? The national party is sending three full-time staffers to work on the ground game in Delaware, which is three more than they do most cycles.
• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is out with an internal poll from Diane Feldman, giving him an 8-point lead over Jeff Greene, 38-30, after a week in which Greene’s yacht (and the vomit that it was caked with) seemed to be the main story figuring in the press about the Senate race this week. (Perhaps confirming these numbers: Greene is now engaged in the last refuge of a guy about to lose a race, which is to start threatening libel suits, here against the St. Petersburg Times for its look into his real estate transactions.) Meek’s also bolstered by two new anti-Greene IEs for TV spots, for a total of $260K from “Florida Is Not For Sale.”
• KY-Sen: The GOP seems to have let Rand Paul off his leash a little in the last few weeks, but between his Fancy Farm performance and some new items, they may be rethinking a return to his undisclosed location. Paul just said that eastern Kentucky’s drug problem (where meth runs rampant and marijuana growth is common) is not “a pressing issue,” and he topped that off by ditching local affiliate Fox reporters after taping a national Fox TV appearance in Lexington, in their own studio.
• PA-Sen: If you’ve been wondering where the DSCC was going to launch its first IEs of this year, Pennsylvania seems like it’s a good place to start. They’re spending $452K on running an ad highlighting Pat Toomey’s Wall Street background (good for 300 GRPs in Philly, 400 in Pittsburgh, and more in selected smaller markets). This will let Joe Sestak focus on marshalling his resources, as is his wont, while keeping the pressure on Toomey, who’s been advertising continually.
• SC-Sen: In case you were wondering if South Carolina could get any more farcical, Dem nominee Alvin Greene just finally got indicited on his pending obscenity charges for showing porn to a college student in a computer lab. I have no idea what the trial’s timetable is, but maybe Dems could actually get a new candidate in there if he’s convicted before November?
• CO-Gov: Ruh roh. The Colorado rumor mill has Dan Maes, the guy who swore he wouldn’t drop out, meeting with the state GOP about… dropping out. They’ve already been conspicuous in their silent non-support of Maes, who won Tuesday’s primary. Despite the meeting, though, Colorado Pols still seems to think that the posture from the Maes camp is one of a man who isn’t dropping out, and he’s meeting with them to try and get some additional support. At any rate, something would need to happen by Sep. 3, at which point the November ballot is finalized.
• MD-Gov: Fundraising numbers are out in Maryland. Republican Bob Ehrlich has almost kept pace with Dem incumbent Martin O’Malley over the course of this year, with Ehrlich raising $3.2 million and O’Malley raising $3.3 million in ’10 (and O’Malley couldn’t fundraise until April, because of the legislative session). O’Malley’s been building up funds for a longer time, though; O’Malley’s CoH advantage is 3:1, with $6.7 million banked compared to $2 million for Ehrlich.
• WY-Gov: Hmmm, this should turn the dominant media narrative about next week’s Wyoming GOP gubernatorial primary into “OMG! Palin/Bush proxy battle!” The Bush in question, though is George H.W. (41) Bush, who extended an endorsement today to Colin Simpson, the state House speaker and son of his long-time pal ex-Sen. Alan Simpson.
• MI-01: The final count’s over in MI-01, and it’s Dan Benishek by a whopping 15 votes, over state Sen. Jason Allen. The ball’s in Allen’s court now; he has until Sunday morning to file a written request for a recount that would need to allege mistakes or fraud.
• TX-17: Here’s an interesting stance from Republican challenger Bill Flores, especially considering this is a red enough district that it may be one of the few places in the country where John Boehner has positive ratings. But in response to questions whether he’d support His Orangeness for Speaker if the GOP had a majority in the House, Flores ducked the question, saying he’d cross that bridge if he got elected.
• Rasmussen:
• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 31%, Tom Tancredo (I) 18%
• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 47%, Linda McMahon (R) 40%
• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 42%, Nathan Deal (R) 51%
• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 45%, Tom Emmer (R) 36%, Tom Horner (I) 10%
This is the second part of two posts analyzing Louisiana’s 2003 gubernatorial election, in which Republican candidate Bobby Jindal narrowly lost to lieutenant governor Kathleen Blanco. It will focus on racial dynamics in the 2003 election. The previous part can be found here.
Race and Bobby Jindal’s 2003 Run
In my previous post, I began analyzing the electoral coalition that voted for Mr. Jindal. As a map of the election below indicates, he drew support heavily from the New Orleans suburbs, while doing extremely poorly in the rural north:
More below.
Discomfort with Mr. Jindal’s race probably accounted for most his underperformance in the rural north. Take La Salle Parish, for instance. Located in the northern stretches of Louisiana, the parish constitutes a typical example of the rural conservatism that backs much of the Republican Party. The district is very thinly populated; in 2003 less than 5,000 people voted in total. It is also quite poor; 2000 census figures indicate that per capita income was only two-thirds of the American average. And it is 86% white.
Like many of its rural peers, La Salle Parish usually votes Republican. It gave Senator John McCain 85.5% of the vote – which probably means that every single white person voted for Mr. McCain, and that every single black person voted for Mr. Obama. Mr. Jindal, however, received less than 40% of the vote in this staunch Republican district.
Interestingly enough, Mr. Jindal also did unremarkably with black voters. Exit polls indicated that he drew about 9% of the black vote in 2003. This was better than most Louisiana Republicans, but not exactly an impressive performance (reaching more than 20%, or even 15%, of black support is considered an extremely strong performance for a Republican politician – especially in the Deep South). African-Americans, it appeared, did not seem to view Mr. Jindal much differently from a typical white Republican in Louisiana.
White voters in rural Louisiana apparently did. A look at white supremacist David Duke’s 1991 run for governor provides a revealing context:
Of the 19 deeply conservative, mostly rural parishes that voted for Mr. Duke, only four could bring themselves to vote for a deeply conservative but non-white Republican. Mr. Duke won two-thirds of the vote in La Salle Parish.
On the other hand, Mr. Duke lost almost all of Louisiana’s conservative southeast; he only managed to win one of the suburban New Orleans parishes Mr. Jindal dominated. These parishes vote equally Republican, if not more so, as places like La Salle Parish.
The disparate supporters of Mr. Jindal and Mr. Duke point to an interesting division in the Republican coalition of Louisiana. Usually this division is not noticed, since Republicans generally hold it together well; only rarely does one leg of the coalition bolt altogether, as in the gubernatorial elections of 1991 and 2003.
Nevertheless, there are indeed two parts of Louisiana’s Republican base. One part, represented by northern Louisiana, is largely rural and poor; in bygone days it formed the core of both Huey Long’s support and the Solid South. The other, located largely in the suburbs surrounding New Orleans, is mostly suburban and relatively wealthy; it will vote for a Bobby Jindal but not a David Duke.
Indeed, these two strands of Republicanism are present not just in Louisiana but throughout the nation. Which strand the Republican Party decides to model itself after in the future will play a great deal in shaping the future of the party, as well as that of the nation.
Post-mortem: Following his 2003 defeat, Mr. Jindal campaigned heavily in the rural regions that had voted against him. In 2007, the Republican was elected governor with 54.3% of the vote; his next closest opponent won 17.6%. Mr. Jindal won almost every parish in the state, including many of the rural, conservative parishes that had voted against him in 2003 – proving that racism is not an impossible obstacle to surmount.
–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/
SurveyUSA for KWCH-TV (8/9-11, likely voters, no trend lines):
Raj Goyle (D): 42
Mike Pompeo (R): 49
David Moffett (L): 4
Susan Ducey (RP): 1
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Todd Tiahrt’s open seat isn’t high on too many lists compiling Democratic takeover opportunities, but this new SUSA poll suggests that Democratic state Rep. Raj Goyle is within striking distance of ex-RNC committeeman Mike Pompeo. The fact that Goyle is doing so well this early in the campaign is already a remarkable achievement — in a district that favored McCain over Obama by 18 points, and Bush over Kerry by a whopping 30%, Goyle is already out-performing those recent Democratic base lines.
Of course, it probably helps that Pompeo is apparently a huge douchebag. Recall that the second-, third-, and fourth-place GOP primary finishers are all holding back on endorsing Pompeo, who even failed to return a congratulatory call from runner-up Jean Schodorf. His campaign was also kept busy yesterday apologizing for linking to a racist blog post on their official Twitter account that characterized Goyle, who was raised Hindu but went to Christian schools, as a “turban topper”.
Still, it’s gonna be incredibly hard for Goyle to get over the next hump, but you’ve got to like these numbers for what they are.
SurveyUSA for KABC, KPIX, KGTV, and KFSN (pdf) (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/8-11 in parentheses):
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (45)
Carly Fiorina (R): 47 (47)
Other: 5 (3)
Undecided: 5 (5)Jerry Brown (D): 43 (39)
Meg Whitman (R): 44 (46)
Other: 6 (7)
Undecided: 6 (8)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
SurveyUSA continues to put up odd numbers in California: Meg Whitman over Jerry Brown by a point, yeah, that’s on the pessimistic side compared with other pollsters but certainly feasible. But Carly Fiorina beating Barbara Boxer by 5, with trendlines going completely the opposite direction from the Dem-trending gubernatorial race? SurveyUSA is not only the only pollster to have ever given Fiorina a lead, but also the only pollster to recently show conservative, HP-destroying, money-limited Fiorina performing better against Boxer than the more moderate, more-acclaimed CEO, more-money-than-God Whitman against Brown. Well, all we can do is throw it on the pile with the rest of the polls; if nothing else, it’ll smooth out that PPP poll that was +9 Boxer a couple weeks ago, which may have been a little too optimistic.
They also include some downballot issues, where Dems seem to be at an advantage (which makes the pro-Fiorina tilt of this poll seem even weirder). Gavin Newsom narrowly leads GOP incumbent Abel Maldonado 43-42 in the Lt. Governor race, and they find Proposition 19, which would legalize and tax the use of marijuana, passing by a fairly broad 50-40 margin.
A month from tomorrow is primary night in RI, along with some other states. Having recently come home to Rhode Island, I am noticing yard signs all around, a sign that election season has started here. While the governor’s race in November promises to be interesting, the primary is the main source of action for many races in overwhelmingly Democratic Rhode Island. Without further ado, I’m going to profile the major races in September.
Governor
With Democratic state attorney general Patrick Lynch having turned and fled, state treasurer Frank Caprio (D) is assured of advancing to the general election. Hence, the main thing to watch on primary night is whether the Republicans nominate Victor Moffitt, a former state rep, or John Robitaille, the director of communications for outgoing governor Don Carcieri (R). Neither has high name recognition, and whoever wins will probably be about as important as Alan Schlesinger was in CT-Sen 2006. The Republican base in Rhode Island is already small, and it will be even smaller because Independent candidate Lincoln Chafee, a former Republican senator, will attract many moderate Rs. Regardless of which Republican wins, it will be a very interesting race, with a liberal independent, a moderate Democrat, a conservative Republican, and wild card Ken Block, the candidate of the newly-formed Moderate Party. For now I’ll predict Robitaille just because he has been in the race longer and is endorsed by the state GOP, but it could go either way.
My prediction: R John Robitaille
My vote: N/A
First Congressional District
Patrick Kennedy (D), the son of legendary Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy (D), has represented this district since 1995, but having seen the death of his beloved father and dealt with issues like alcoholism and drug abuse, he’s finally throwing in the towel. This district contains the entire Massachusetts border and also drops down to take in mostly white neighborhoods of Providence. At D+13, it is the more Democratic of Rhode Island’s two congressional districts. Therefore it is no surprise that many Democrats jumped at the chance to succeed Kennedy.
The most prominent entrant into the field by far was Providence mayor David Cicilline. With his massive fundraising and name rec advantages, he quickly jumped into the lead. Though Cicilline’s popularity has suffered from the December 2007 snowstorm which shut down the city and his proposal to tax out-of-state students at Providence colleges, his underfunded opponents have failed to take advantage of these vulnerabilities. Cicilline’s main opposition would seem to be from either former state party chairman Bill Lynch (who lost the state party’s endorsement to Cicilline) or netroots darling state rep. David Segal, with plumbing company owner Anthony Gemma lagging in fourth (despite probably having decent name rec due to his 867-5309 commercials).
With only a month left to go it doesn’t look like Cicilline will lose his advantage. If he wins he’ll likely go on to face state rep. John Loughlin (R), who should easily vanquish Some Dudette Kara Russo in the primary but doesn’t have a ghost of a chance in the general, even in this year.
My prediction: D David Cicilline R John Loughlin
My vote: D David Cicilline
Second Congressional District
Representative Jim Langevin (D) was first elected in 1996 to succeed Jack Reed (D), who in turn was elected to succeed retiring senator and Pell Grant namesake Claiborne Pell (D). This district is the less Democratic district, as it contains most of Rhode Island’s less urban western border and South (Washington) County. Of course, it has urban centers like Cranston and Warwick to balance this out, and in Rhode Island “less Democratic” still means D+9. In 2006, Langevin attracted a primary challenge from Brown University professor Jennifer Lawless (who now works at American University in DC). Lawless criticized Langevin’s anti-abortion stance, but having only lived in Rhode Island for a few years, she was seen as a carpetbagger and was blown out of the water by Langevin.
This year, state rep. Betsy Dennigan (D) is setting out to finish what Lawless started, but it’s not looking like she’ll be any more successful. Her legislative district was in East Providence, which is in RI-01, and she only moved to RI-02 to run for congress. Furthermore, she’s not even a Rhode Island native. Even without the stink of carpetbagging her campaign suffers from, abortion is probably not a big enough issue for RI-02 Democrats to dump Langevin. Expect a large Langevin win. As for the Republicans, retread Mark Zaccaria will probably win and get his ass kicked by Langevin again.
My prediction: D Jim Langevin R Mark Zaccaria
My vote: N/A
Lieutenant Governor
Current Lt. Governor Elizabeth Roberts (D) was widely talked about as a candidate for governor, but she actually declared her intention to run for re-election. Despite this, she still has a primary challenge from Red Sox executive Jeremy Kapstein. She should easily dispatch Kapstein and head to the general, where her opponents are teabagging indy Robert Healey and Republican Heidi Rogers, both of whom want to eliminate the Lt. Governor position. However, Healey and Rogers have agreed that one might drop out so that the other can consolidate the RI teabagging vote (all 5 of them). Nevertheless, Roberts is probably looking at another term.
My prediction: D Elizabeth Roberts R Heidi Rogers
My vote: D Elizabeth Roberts
Attorney General
Rhode Island voters will also get to elect a new attorney general to replace Patrick Lynch. This race hasn’t attracted any big names, but the leader on the Dem side (in terms of yard signs in my neighborhood) seems to be Steve Archambault. Archambault seems pretty liberal, and he has pledged to join Martha Coakley’s lawsuit against DOMA. For what it’s worth, I have seen Archambault yard signs, but none for the other Dem candidates, Joe Fernandez, Peter Kilmartin, and Robert Rainville. However, Kilmartin is endorsed by the state party, and his name appears first on the ballot, which could be decisive in a low-info race, and IMO probably gives him the nomination. Other candidates in the race include Moderate Party candidate Chris Little and Republican wingnut Erik Wallin. If this race remains low-profile, it will turn into Generic D vs. Generic R, an obvious benefit for Team Blue in a state like RI.
My prediction: D Peter Kilmartin (Steve Archambault in second)
My vote: D Steve Archambault (probably)
State Treasurer
With Frank Caprio having vacated this post to run for governor, here’s another open seat for Rhode Islanders to fill. Businesswoman Gina Raimondo is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. With EMILY’s List and Rhode Island’s blue tint behind her, she is favored against Republican former Carcieri aide Kerry King in November.
My prediction: N/A
My vote: D Gina Raimondo
Secretary of State
Incumbent A. Ralph Mollis (D) is running for re-election and probably has little to fear from State Sen. Lou Raptakis (D). Mollis should then go on to turn Catherine Taylor (R), a former speechwriter for Chafee and his father, the late Republican Sen. John Chafee, into roadkill.
My prediction: D A. Ralph Mollis
My vote: D A. Ralph Mollis (probably)
Mayor of Providence
David Cicilline, whose father was Italian and whose mother was Jewish, made Providence the first state capital with an openly gay mayor and the largest city with an openly gay mayor until Sam Adams’ election in Portland, OR. Now there’s a new candidate claiming the mantle of diversity, and it’s attorney Angel Taveras (D). Taveras grew up in poor, ethnically diverse South Providence, but overcame adversity to attend Harvard and Georgetown Law, which should help him appeal to well-educated liberals on the East Side. He now lives in Mount Pleasant, which has a fairly large Dominican population.
Taveras’ main competition seems to be from State Rep. Steve Costantino (D), who manages Venda Ravioli, a popular Italian market in Federal Hill, Providence’s Italian neighborhood. I’ve seen quite a few Costantino signs on the East Side, which is good news for him because if Taveras does well in Mt. Pleasant and South Providence, Costantino’s Federal Hill base won’t be enough by itself. Especially because the third candidate in the race, City Councilman John Lombardi (D), also has a base in Federal Hill/West Broadway. Certified wacko Christopher Young (D, surprisingly) rounds out the Democratic field.
Taveras seems to be favored here. All the energy I’ve noticed in the race seems to be on his side, and he is the only Hispanic candidate in a city which is 1/3 Hispanic. Furthermore, Lombardi will probably leech votes from Costantino because they share a base. Costantino would have to do very well on the East Side to win, and I think Taveras has enough support there to prevent that. As a result I would say Taveras has an advantage, albeit not insurmountable. The Republican candidate here is former failed RI-01 candidate Jonathan Scott. Seeing as how Buddy Cianci is now an independent, there’s no Republican in Providence that could win this race, much less a Some Dude like Scott. Safe D.
My prediction: D Angel Taveras
My vote: D Angel Taveras (probably)
I’m going to go way out on a limb and predict that the Republicans pick up somewhere between 15 and 63 seats.
The 15 seats I am pretty confident Dems will lose (in alphabetical order):
AR-02 – Might have been competitive with Wills.
IA-03 – Two Republican polls have Zaun up and I believe he is.
KS-03 – Not sure how Moore switcheroo can work in an anti-incumbent year.
LA-03 – Dems seem to be conceding this.
MS-01 – Nunnellee internal has him up 8, and I tend to believe it.
NH-02 – Well-known Bass way ahead in polls.
NY-29 – Dems seem to be conceding this.
OH-01 – Multiple polls show Driehaus down double digits. I believe that he is down, though maybe not by that much.
OH-15 – Logic leads me to believe Kilroy is in similar shape as Driehaus.
PA-07 – Huge internal poll lead for Meehan.
PA-11 – Big internal poll lead for Barletta. Kanjorski is addicted to putting his foot in his mouth.
TN-06 – Dems seem to be conceding this.
TX-17 – Edwards beating Flores makes no sense to me after tight 2008 race with unfunded Curnock.
VA-02 – I believe the Rigell poll showing him ahead.
VA-05 – I don’t think Periello is down 23 like SUSA says, but I do believe he’s down.
Touted races I am pretty confident Dems will win:
CT-04 – Monster fundraising for Himes.
ID-01 – Labrador down big in his own poll.
IN-02 – Big lead for Donnelly in pro-lifer poll.
IN-09 – Young significantly down in his own poll.
KY-06 – Big lead for Chandler in independent poll.
NC-08 – PPP showed Kissell ahead by 6.
NJ-03 – Independent poll featured on front page shows Adler ahead.
NY-13 – Internal poll for McMahon has him way ahead.
PA-12 – Don’t see why Burns would win the second time around.
TN-04 – Republican internal had Davis up 11.
TX-23 – Republican internal had Rodriguez up.
VA-09 – SUSA has Boucher up big.
WV-01 – Oliviero up big in internal.
Races where I just don’t know:
AL-02 – Would bet a current poll would be much closer than dusty Bright internal.
AR-01 – Woolridge sour grapes hurting Causey, who otherwise should win this.
AZ-01 – This is a tough district and maybe a sleeper, but Republicans are underfunded.
AZ-05 – My gut tells me Mitchell may lose. Tough, wealthy district.
AZ-08 – Hope Jesse Kelly is right with his primary poll. He would be the easiest to beat.
CA-11 – Another sleeper. Harmer is a real go-getter for the Republicans.
CO-04 – Tend to believe we’ll lose this, but no polling confirms it.
FL-02 – I’m somewhat doubtful of Southerland internal with him up 15.
FL-08 – No friggin’ clue. Huge money advantage but internal from also ran Republican Todd Long shows Grayson down.
FL-22 – This will be one of the most expensive races in the country.
FL-24 – Crowded Republican primary may help Kosmas in tough district. No polling.
GA-08 – Tend to feel good about Marshall, but would love to see a poll.
IL-11 – Multiple partisan polls show Kinzinger up. I tend to believe it, but not quite convinced.
IL-14 – Big $$$ advantage for Foster.
IL-17 – Not in love with Hare’s response to Schilling internal showing himself up big.
IN-08 – Republicans should win this one, but Bucshon isn’t much of a candidate.
MA-10 – What a mess with all the third party candidates. Would love to see a poll.
MD-01 – Conflicting polling, but I’m not feeling good about this one.
MI-01 – Tough call with Benishek in, knock on wood. Weak fundrasing for McDowell.
MI-07 – Walberg internals have him up, but I’m not quite convinced.
MN-01 – Tend to think Walz will be OK. Demmer raised serious $$$ last quarter though.
MO-04 – Tend to think Skelton will pull this out, but would love to see a poll.
NC-11 – Conflicting polling data. Tend to think Shuler will be OK.
ND-AL – Last Rasmussen poll tight. Pomeroy was reddest-district Dem to vote yeah on HCR.
NH-01 – Shea-Porter ahead in recent polling.
NM-01 – Conflicting polling. My sense is that Heinrich is ahead by high single digits.
NM-02 – All polling on this has been tight.
NV-03 – Titus ahead in latest M/D poll.
NY-01 – This will be another enormously expensive race.
NY-19 – No friggin’ clue. Would love to see a poll. Self-funder Hayworth has $$$ advantage.
NY-20 – Was feeling good about this, but then Gibson came up with monster $$$ for Q2.
NY-23 – Have a feeling Hoffman will fuck this up for the Republicans one way or the other.
NY-24 – Everybody’s writing Arcuri off, but would love to see a poll.
OH-13 – We’ll see if money really IS everything.
OH-16 – Not sure if I believe Republican poll showing big Renacci lead.
OH-18 – Republican internal with race tied does not impress me much.
OR-05 – No polling but Republicans are talking this one up.
PA-03 – Conflicting polls here. Wouldn’t be surprised if it is close.
PA-04 – Tend to like Altmire’s chances, but no polling so far.
PA-08 – Worried about this one, but no polling.
PA-10 – Huge $$$ lead for Carney.
SC-05 – PPP showed a small lead for Spratt some time ago.
SD-AL – Not sure I believe Rasmussen and his big Noem lead, but not sure I disbelieve it either.
TN-08 – Impressive Fincher primary victory makes me less sanguine on this one.
VA-11 – Not sure I’m buying Fimian internal showing lead.
WA-03 – Dem Heck has big $$$ advantage.
WI-07 – Historically Dem district, but Lassa is playing catchup in fundraising.
WI-08 – Could be a sleeper. Crowded Republican primary may help Kagen.
Braun Research for the Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics (8/5-8, registered voters, no trend lines):
John Adler (D-inc): 31
Jon Runyan (R): 25
Peter DeStefano (I): 4
Undecided: 34
Not Voting: 6John Adler (D-inc): 35
Jon Runyan (R): 28
Undecided: 23
Not Voting: 13
(MoE: ±4.8%)
The eggheads at Rutgers are out this week with a new poll of New Jersey’s 3rd CD, the first poll of this race since John Adler released an internal last month claiming a 51-34 lead over the ex-Eagle Runyan, with 12% going to independent teabagger Peter DeStefano. That poll drew howls of protest from the Runyan campaign, who didn’t believe that DeStefano, a man who appears to be in the Witness Protection Program (as no one can seem to be able to track him down), could be winning a double digit-sized share of the vote.
Much has been made of the fact that, zomg, Runyan holds a 36-35 lead among those who are “paying the most attention to the campaign”, but the more interesting statistic from this poll is that, among those who say they are likely to vote (n=351), Adler holds a 40-30 lead over Runyan — or a 36-26 lead with DeStefano in the mix. That’s the opposite result you’d expect in a year where Republican enthusiasm has been shown to be more intense than that of Democrats, but it’s also probably true that Braun wasn’t pushing undecideds off the fence with as much force as other pollsters.
My own thoughts on this race are that Adler should’ve be a pretty appealing target for the GOP to turn into a one-term wonder, but they certainly gave him a fighting chance by relying on a B-list candidate in Runyan to get the job done.
Braun Research for cn|2 (8/9-10, likely voters, no trend lines):
John Yarmuth (D-inc): 52
Todd Lally (R): 29
Michael Hansen (I): 1
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.4%)
The class of 2006 and 2008 represent some of the best targets for Republicans to shoot for this fall, but we at least we can feel pretty good about John Yarmuth’s chances at a third term in his Louisville-based district. And that’s good to hear, as Yarmuth is a great representative who’s proven to be a solid fit for his district — his approval rating according to this poll is 62-32.
In an interview with cn|2, Lally’s campaign manager pushed back at the poll’s results, in part by claiming that “we’ve already had independent polls that are closer”. That’s a pretty curious thing to say, considering that the only other polls of this race that have been released this cycle, according to SSP Archives & Storage, were a Yarmuth internal that pegged the race at 58-32, and Lally internal from the obscure Rivercity Polling group which claimed that Yarmuth only had a 1-point lead on Lally. Surely the Lally campaign isn’t suggesting that their own pollster, who produced the outlier in this triad of surveys, should be considered an independent source?
One of the things that has come up in this election is whether the macro vs. micro climate, and which is better in terms of determining the outcome of this year’s election. Simply put, Republicans have nominated some pretty bad candidates (Angle, Paul, and possibly Buck, although I think the verdict might still be out on the latter) who would be unelectable in a different year.
Anyway, I thought it would be a fun exercise to put together a list of 10 candidates who were preceived as weak choices for their respective parties at the time, but went on to win in “wave” elections. Feel free to disagree or nominate your own choices below.
Gary Hart (D) vs. Peter Dominick (R), CO-SE, 1974
Peter Dominick was a two term Senator who had served only two years before as the chairman of the NRSC. His opponent was the upstart campaign manager of George McGovern’s disasterous bid for the presidency, which lost the state of Colorado by a substantial margin. But Hart took advantage of the post-Watergate environment to crush Dominick 57.2%-39.5%, beginning a political career that would end in Monkey Business thirteen years later
Alfonse D’Amato (R) vs. Elizabeth Holtzman (D) and Jacob Javitz (I), NY-SE, 1980
D’Amato, the presiding supervisor of the town of Hempstead was given little chance against longtime New York Senator Jacob Javitz, but taking advantage of Javitz’s illness and the conservative tide in 1980, he upset Javitz in the primary. Javitz decided to run as an independent in the general election, but instead of taking moderate Republican votes away from D’Amato he split the liberal and moderate base with Elizabeth Holtzman, who was vying to be the first woman Senator from NY, and in the year of Reagan’s first landslide D’Amato won a close race.
John LeBoutillier (R) vs. Lester Wolff (D), NY-6th District, 1980
Another New York race. LeBoutillier was the original wingnut, a 27-year old rabidly conservative Republican who beat a 16-year incumbent to win election to this Long Island district in this very Republican year. He only lasted one term before being ousted. He’s currently a columnist for NewsMax.com
Jesse Helms (R) vs. Jim Hunt (D), NC-SE, 1984
The always very controversial Helms was considered dead meat against North Carolina’s very popular Democratic governor Jim Hunt. Up until the last couple weeks of the campaign, Hunt was still the favorite in what was then considered one of the nastiest campaigns ever run in American history. But Helms rode the Reagan landslide win that year to hang on to his Senate seat.
Kent Conrad (D) vs. Mark Andrews (R), ND-SE, 1986
Andrews was a longtime North Dakota congressman who joined the Senate in 1980, receiving 70 percent of the vote. He looked so unbeatable for reelection that the state’s Democratic congressman, Byron Dorgan, took a pass. But North Dakota tax commissioner Kent Conrad stepped up to the race, and in a bad year for farm-state Republicans, beat Andrews in a suprise upset
Steve Stockman (R) vs. Jack Brooks (D), TX-9th District, 1994
Jack Brooks had been a congressman for 40 years and was chairman of the powerful House Judiciary Committee. Stockman was pretty much of a nobody who held no political office, although he had run against Brooks once before, in 1992, losing pretty badly. However, Brooks sponsorship of a crime bill opposed by the NRA along with being in the Republican wave year of 1994 doomed Brooks. Stockman, who was dogged by controversy throughout his term, lost to Nick Lampson in 1996.
Rod Grams (R) vs. Anne Wynia (D), MN-SE, 1994.
Grams was a one term congressman and former broadcaster who is likely the most conservative senator ever to be elected from Minnesota. Wynia was a well respected state legislator who was the benificiary of a campiagn by prominent Minnesota DFLers to elect a woman to the Senate. But, in the year of Republican sweep, Grams beat her in a very close race. He lost to Mark Dayton six years later.
Bill Frist (R) vs Jim Sasser (D), TN-SE, 1994
One more from the 1994 election debacle. Bill Frist was a prominent Tennessee physician and major stockholder in his family’s health care company. Jim Sasser was on the short list to succeed George Mitchell as Senate Majority Leader, and he was from a state the Clinton-Gore ticket had won two years before. But Tennessee took on a decidedly conservative bent in 1994, and Sasser lost by 13 points
George Allen (R) v. Jim Webb (D), VA-SE, 2006
In this case, it may not be that Jim Webb was neccesarily a weak candidate, but George Allen was perceived as so strong. A popular former Virgina governor and future Presidential candidate, Allen was viewed as the prohibitive favorite to win reelection, but in an upset prompted by his own stumbles and a good campaign run by Webb, he lost in a very close race.
Kay Hagan (D) vs. Elizabeth Dole (R), NC-SE, 2008
We all are familiar with this recent one, so no need to rehash it. Suffice it to say that no one would have predicted two years before an obscure state legislator would beat the head of the NRSC so badly.