Month: August 2010

It's been a month since my initial forecast and I think it requires an update. I didn't rank every seat in order of weakness because there is a potential for wild cards and some I moved down on my list. Let's look at what I expect to happen.

 

TN-6	AL-2	NJ-6
LA-3	ID-1	CT-4
AR-2	WI-7	NJ-12
NY-29	VA-11	WI-3
OH-1	FL-2	UT-2
MD-1	NM-1	NC-2
OH-15	PA-3	MO-3
IN-8	NJ-3	KY-6
KS-3	WV-1	IN-2
VA-5	MO-4	WA-2
IN-9	PA-12	MN-1
NM-2	TX-23	NY-20
TN-8	PA-10	NY-25
VA-2	NY-13	TN-4
FL-8	SC-5	RI-1
NH-2	OH-18	OH-6
MS-1	OH-13	GA-12
ND-AL	PA-4	NY-1
WA-3	PA-8	OR-1
NH-1	OH-16	PA-17
NY-24	MA-10	IA-1
FL-24	NY-23	KY-3
SD-AL	NY-19	GA-8
CO-4	VA-9	CA-18
MI-1	CT-5	MI-9
NV-3	FL-22	CO-7
AR-1	OR-5	IL-8
IL-14	WV-3	CA-20
MI-7	PA-11	CA-47
TX-17	PA-7
IA-3

This is the scenario that is most probable, the GOP gaining between 24-30 seats. The purple category holds “Possible” gains, I added a new color category for that reason. The GOP could pull all these purple seats, but I expect them to only grab 2-3 of them, which would make the overall gain 27. And you have subtract at least three from any GOP gain number because Democrats will likely takeover HI-1, LA-2 and DE-AL. So the actual math for GOP gains is 24-27. That's my main prediction. Now on to the best case scenario for Democrats.

TN-6	AL-2	NJ-6
LA-3	ID-1	CT-4
AR-2	WI-7	NJ-12
NY-29	VA-11	WI-3
OH-1	FL-2	UT-2
MD-1	NM-1	NC-2
OH-15	PA-3	MO-3
IN-8	NJ-3	KY-6
KS-3	WV-1	IN-2
VA-5	MO-4	WA-2
IN-9	PA-12	MN-1
NM-2	TX-23	NY-20
TN-8	PA-10	NY-25
VA-2	NY-13	TN-4
FL-8	SC-5	RI-1
NH-2	OH-18	OH-6
MS-1	OH-13	GA-12
ND-AL	PA-4	NY-1
WA-3	PA-8	OR-1
NH-1	OH-16	PA-17
NY-24	MA-10	IA-1
FL-24	NY-23	KY-3
SD-AL	NY-19	GA-8
CO-4	VA-9	CA-18
MI-1	CT-5	MI-9
NV-3	FL-22	CO-7
AR-1	OR-5	IL-8
IL-14	WV-3	CA-20
MI-7	PA-11	CA-47
TX-17	PA-7
IA-3

Similar to the 1978 midterm where Republicans only managed to grab only 15 seats. I have the GOP grabbing 18 in this scenario. If Democratic candidates can really localize elections like Mark Critz in PA-12 did, this is what the board would look like. 

Overall, both scenarios show GOP gains, but not enough for the GOP to take the majority.

• NV-Sen: It really seems Sharron Angle is trying to “soften” her image… maybe? For starters, she’s reversed course on attending a Tea Party rally this weekend on the U.S./Mexico border (probably not wanting to be photographed in proximity to the signs that attendees are going to be waving at such an event), despite having confirmed her appearance there last week. And her newest TV ad also focuses on how she wants to “save” Social Security, although her definition of “save” might vary considerably from yours or mine. Harry Reid’s out with his own TV ad, too, calling her “dangerous” and “crazy” over her now-infamous “2nd Amendment remedies” line.

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown just got $20,000 from a very unusual source: Alex Spanos, owner of the San Diego Chargers and usually a staunch Republican donor (as well as a real estate developer who has recently clashed with Brown, as AG, over land-use laws). Spanos hasn’t contributed to Meg Whitman’s campaign. Apparently Spanos and the Brown family go way back; Spanos was a financial backer for Brown’s first gubernatorial campaign in 1974.

• MA-Gov: There’s a new poll of the governor’s race out, from somebody called Mass Insight (taken by Opinion Dynamics): since the only place I can find a link to the poll is Red Mass Group (not even Mass Insight’s own site?) and their site describes themselves as a consulting and research firm that focuses on “market-driven solutions,” I think it’s safe to call this a Republican-ish poll. At any rate, they find Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick leading GOPer Charlie Baker and independent Tim Cahill 30-25-16. And in a two-way race (which, of course, would require Cahill to drop out), Baker leads Patrick 42-37. The poll also reports that 54% of respondents are either “somewhat or very likely” to vote against their incumbent Congressman (all of whom are Democrats, of course) this year.

• MI-Gov (pdf): The Detroit News is out with its first poll of the gubernatorial race after the primary elections, conducted by the Glengariff Group. GOPer Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero 51-32, leading in all parts of the state except Detroit proper. Snyder’s faves are 41/15, pretty remarkable considering he just got out of a heated four-way primary, while Bernero’s are 21/27.

• ID-01, OH-18, PA-04: The NRCC is pushing back today after the New York Times, as part of a longer piece talking about Dem House incumbents, said that Walt Minnick, Zack Space, and Jason Altmire were “no longer seen by Republicans as easy targets.” I guess one can quibble over what “easy” means, which is different from saying the GOP has cut these districts loose, but still, to talk with that level of specificity, the NYT had to have gotten that idea from somewhere.

• MA-10: Well, this open seat race just keeps getting weirder and weirder, with the entry of yet another sorta-prominent former Dem running as an indie. Former state Rep. (and way back in the mists of time, aide to Tip O’Neill) Maryanne Lewis will run as a moderate independent. (Recall that former Quincy mayor James Sheets is already running as an indie, too.) I understand the desire to circumvent the Dem primary in this district, which already has two heavyweights in it, but too many indie cooks could spoil the broth here in November.

• MI-01: This photo-finish race in the GOP primary has been outstanding for almost two weeks now, but the state board of canvassers is preparing to certify the election tomorrow. According to physician Dan Benishek’s camp, he leads by 15 votes over state Sen. Jason Allen. Allen is taking a wait-and-see attitude, though a recount sounds likely (which will be cumbersome, in this 31-county district… something I’m sure Dem nominee Gary McDowell doesn’t mind, I’m sure).

• MS-01: Rep. Travis Childers, in for a tough fight against Alan Nunnelee, is out with his first TV ad. As one would expect, in his dark-red district, he’s talking up how he’s one of the “most independent” members of the House, and name-drops his NRA and National Right to Life endorsements. NWOTSOTB.

• VA-09: One last ad to report, and it’s from a very strange source: the Some Dude in the Bloody 9th, running as an independent, is actually hitting the airwaves. I’m not sure with what money, as he’s raised $20K over the cycle (almost all self-funded) and at the end of June had $88 CoH. (There’s not a K missing. That’s literally $88.) Anyway, he wants you to know that he’s never taken money from special interests (which should be abundantly clear from his fundraising report) and never will.

• Rasmussen:

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 41%, Ken Buck (R) 46%

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 35%, Bill Brady (R) 48%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 50%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 41%, Scott Walker (R) 49%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Mark Neumann (R) 45%

Mason-Dixon (8/9-11, likely voters for primary and registered voters for general, 8/2-4 for primary trendlines, 5/3-5 for general election trendlines):

Bill McCollum (R): 34 (31)

Rick Scott (R): 30 (37)

(MoE: ±5%)

Alex Sink (D): 37 (36)

Bill McCollum (R): 35 (45)

Bud Chiles (I): 13 (NA)

Alex Sink (D): 40 (38)

Rick Scott (R): 24 (36)

Bud Chiles (I): 17 (NA)

(MoE: ±4%)

Some sort of dam has broken in Florida in the last week, apparently, and Rick Scott is the one who’s currently getting swamped. There has been a general sense in polling over the last few weeks that Bill McCollum was working his way back into contention in the GOP primary, and all of a sudden, in the latest Mason-Dixon poll, he’s broken back into the lead. What’s wrong with Scott? (Or: What gives, Cueball?)

Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker offers three pretty good reasons: 1) the Medicare fraud thing is finally starting to gain some traction (you’d think it would have months ago, but I guess you have to hit people over the head repeatedly for stuff like that to sink in, and that’s what the latest round of McCollum ads have been doing), 2) Scott, a la Meg Whitman, shot past the point of diminshing returns on saturation advertising, and 3) Scott sucked at the debates he was in, and has been ducking another one this week.

There’s also some serious spillover for Scott into the general. Mason-Dixon’s general election trendlines go all the way back to May, so they don’t reflect the period where McCollum had been turned radioactive and Scott was polling much better vis-a-vis Alex Sink… but that’s totally turned around in the new poll. Sink narrowly leads McCollum, but now she demolishes Scott (with an assist from indie Bud Chiles, who seems to get a big bump in a Sink/Scott race too). The Sink/McCollum numbers are a definite improvement from their last poll, though, so even if McCollum does somehow pull it out in the primary, it seems like the damage from Scott’s self-aggrandizing kamikaze mission has already been done.

AZ-Sen: The AP ran a story about J.D. Hayworth’s recent criticisms of John McCain, featuring a provocative headline: “Hayworth suggests McCain would be worse than Obama.” This caused Hayworth to flip the fuck out – and put him in the exquisitely agonizing situation of having to defend McCain. Talk about having your nuts squeezed!

CO-Sen: Some off-message messaging from Ken Buck, fresh off his primary win over Jane Norton: “I think Republicans realize that Republicans are every bit as much to blame for the mess that we are in in D.C. as the Democrats.”

IN-Sen: Dick Lugar, 78 years young, indicated that he would likely seek re-election in 2012. In case you want to parse the tea leaves, his exact words were: “I suppose there will be a place and a time to do that, to rally the forces, to get the fundraisers going and all of that type of thing. But that’s my intent day by day. Most people in the Senate know I will be around, therefore they have to deal with me on that basis.”

KY-Sen: Do you ever feel like sometimes, life sounds just like an episode of Arrested Development?

Rand Paul Not a Kidnapper “In a Legal Sense,” Accuser Says

It was really just some light… abduction.

CO-Gov: Tom Tancredo is going nowhere! As in, he ain’t quitting the race. If anything, he looks more set on staying in than ever, digging in his heels in response to GOP chair Dick Wadhams’ broadsides. Said Wadhams: “Tom Tancredo makes it unwinnable if he remains a third-party candidate.” Responded the Tanc: “I have a better chance of winning in a three-way race than Maes has in a two-way race.”

FL-Gov: The Florida Independent, a member of the American Independent News Network, has a new investigative report about Rick Scott’s current healthcare company. Rather than try to summarize, I’ll just quote a bit:

Two doctors – both former employees of Solantic, the chain of clinics launched by Scott and in which he is a majority investor – allege that Solantic repeatedly used their name and medical license information without their permission or knowledge. Both doctors state that by allegedly misappropriating their information, the company was able to keep clinics operating in contravention of state law.

One of the doctors asserts that he also came upon evidence of billing irregularities involving Medicare, which, if true, would be the second time a Scott-run company was accused of improperly billing Medicare.

ID-01: Walt Minnick keeps racking up support from the right (and sometimes far-right): the conservative “Council for Citizens Against Government Waste” just named Minnick as the lone Democratic “Taxpayer Hero” of 2009. Whatever it takes, huh?

NY-10: Kevin Powell, who lost badly to Rep. Ed Towns in a 2008 primary challenge and is trying again this year, put out a press release saying he beat back Towns’ attempt to disqualify his petitions and remove him from the ballot. Towns is a terrible elected official and is definitely vulnerable – he won a primary in 1998 with just 52% and has been challenged many times. In a year like this, he could definitely go down, but I doubt Powell (who has no money) is the right guy to do it.

PA-10: Rep. Chris Carney is going up on the air with his first ads – and this time, there is word on the size of the buy. Carney’s spending $60K, which may not sound like a lot, but this is a really cheap-ass media market. Carney also has a huge cash advantage over his GOP opponent, ex-US Attorney Tom Marino: $800K to 11K as of June 30th, though Marino claims he has more than five times that (WOW!) on hand now.

TN-06: On election night, the Republican primary in the 6th CD ended crazily close, with a 31-30-30 near-tie between three candidates. The last place dude, Jim Tracy, finally conceded and endorsed Diane Black, the first-place dude. The second place dude (and yes, at SSP, we use “dude” to refer to all genders), Lou Ann Zelenik, is still contesting the results.

VA-05: What a weiner! Challengers usually jump at the chance for debates with incumbents, endlessly wheedling and begging and cajoling for any opportunity to raise their profile. But in a bizarre role reversal, Republican Rob Hurt is refusing to debate Rep. Tom Perriello – all because indy teabagger Jeff Clark was also invited to participate. Perriello both goaded and bear-hugged Hurt, saying: “If you’re too scared to make your case to the voters, then how easily are you going to get crushed up in Washington in terms of having any independence? It’s an important part of the process and I hope Sen. Hurt will show up and try to make his case.”

Teabaggers v. CoC: Sounds pretty dirty, doesn’t it? Well, I won’t tell you to get your mind out of the gutter, because that’s where SSP’s always is. Anyhow, the Huffington Post has a good rundown of the cycle-long war that’s been waged between the Chamber of Commerce, which likes their wingnuts anti-tax but establish-minty, and the teabaggers, who like their wingnuts deep-fried and weapons-grade. So far, the baggers have had an edge in primaries, despite the Chamber’s mighty resources. Loves it.

SurveyUSA for KING-TV (8/6-9, likely and actual voters, 6/25-28 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 41 (37)

Dino Rossi (R): 33 (33)

Clint Didier (R): 11 (5)

Others: 10 (6)

Undecided: 4 (19)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

While Dino Rossi has been, in public, trying to stay above the fray and treat his advancing from Washington’s Top 2 primary as a given, he’s also been trying to consolidate support from various right-wing kingmakers (Jim DeMint, Tom Coburn), which suggests he’s at least somewhat sweating the challenge from various teabaggers on his right flank. SurveyUSA’s new poll (of likely and “actual” voters, the latter being those who’ve already sent in their mail-in ballots) shows that there his efforts may be warranted, as he’s flat while everyone else is gaining: principal Tea Party opposition Clint Didier, Democratic incumbent Patty Murray, and the vast hodgepodge that is “other” (partially fellow teabagger Paul Akers, who’s in the low single digits, but also 12 other assorted dreamers and cranks). Rossi, of course, is in no danger of losing his ticket to the big dance in November, but he probably wants to avoid an embarrassing finish in distant second.

As with the previous SurveyUSA poll, one red flag for Murray is that Rossi + Didier > Murray. PPP‘s recent poll of the primary is an interesting comparison point, because their numbers for the Republicans are pretty similar while finding Murray further along (Murray 47, Rossi 33, Didier 10, Akers 4)… but they don’t include an “Other,” suggesting that SurveyUSA is finding at least a handful of folks who prefer Murray to the GOPers but, given the full panoply of options, plan to waste their primary votes on one of the perennial candidates who are self-described Dems (like the ubiquitous Mike the Mover).

Via Greg Giroux, AFSCME is up with a new ad today hitting Republican hopeful Jim Renacci, who is challenging first-term Dem Rep. John Boccieri, on the issue of Renacci’s support for a 23% sales tax:

And we definitely have some word on the size of the buy:

AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY AN – C90011172

  1. Opposes Candidate: James B Renacci (H0OH16097)

       Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 16

       Payee: Adelstein/Liston

       Date Expended = 08/09/2010      Amount Expended = $750000.00

       Purpose: TV ads Totally Unacceptable Deadbeat

That’s a monstrously huge buy for this time of year, and there’s no word on whether that money is being spread out over multiple weeks or multiple ads. Boccieri is pretty high on the list of vulnerable Ohio Dems this cycle, so it’s nice to see AFSCME try to get out and define Renacci before he can define himself.

• CT-Sen: This may be the first time we’ve ever linked to Jezebel, but they have a nice deconstruction of the public face of the new image that Linda McMahon has built up for herself, and its complicated relationship to the WWE, the source of the millions that Linda McMahon plans to spend on her Senate bid. (Although I wish they’d focused more on the behind-the-scenes stuff: the steroids, the lack of health care, the union-busting, and so on…)

• KY-Sen: Is this really the kind of headlines that Rand Paul (or any candidate, for any office) would want to be seeing today? “Woman Says Paul Did Not Kidnap Her,” and “Paul Apologizes for Fancy Farm Beer Flub.” The former story isn’t that surprising, in that Paul’s college acquaintance clarifies that the whole let’s-tie-her-up-make-her-smoke-pot-and-pray-to-a-graven-idol thing was more of a consensual hazing than an out-and-out kidnapping (of course, other than the “kidnapping” semantics, all that Bong Hits for Aqua Buddha stuff still seems to stand). The latter story has its roots in Paul’s worries that the audience at the Fancy Farm church picnic (the same ones who got the vapors last year when Jack Conway used the words “son of a bitch”) were going to start throwing beer at him – even though the event was dry. Having realized that you don’t go around dissing politically-legendary church picnics unless you have the political instincts of a brick, Paul later apologized.

• LA-Sen: Southern Media & Opinion Research finds that David Vitter leads Charlie Melancon 46-28, not much changed since their last poll from spring, where Vitter led 49-31. They also take a look at the Republican Senate primary, finding (as did POS a few weeks ago) that Chet Traylor is really turning into something of a paper tiger: Vitter leads Traylor 78-4! They also do a quick look at the jungle-style Lt. Governor special election, giving the lead to current Republican SoS Jay Dardenne at 26.

• OR-Gov: Well, it seems like the John Kitzhaber campaign has finally acknowledged what the blogosphere realized a while ago, that it’s time to shake things up and bring in a more feisty and uptempo approach. That’s hopefully what they’re doing with a new campaign manager, Patricia McCaig. Interestingly, McCaig is a former right-hand woman to ex-Gov. Barbara Roberts, who Kitzhaber shoved over in 1994 and whose relations with Kitz have been rocky since then.

• AZ-03: Will today’s double-whammy be enough to knock Ben Quayle out of his seeming frontrunner position in the GOP primary in the 3rd? Rocked by controversy over having denied and then having gotten outed as having written pseudonymously for sleazy local website DirtyScottsdale.com (a forerunner to today’s TheDirty.com), he’s out with a TV spot that he hopes will take some of the heat off. Unfortunately for him, the ad seems to have gotten an almost universally derisive reaction, based on his odd combination of hyperbolic claims (“Barack Obama is the worst president in history”), slow, droning delivery, and strange robotic motions.

• IA-03: When we moved Leonard Boswell in the 3rd to Tossup a few weeks ago, we weren’t fooling around. A second Republican poll was released today giving his GOP challenger, state Sen. Brad Zaun, a decent-sized lead: Victory Enterprises, on behalf of the Polk County GOP and not the Zaun camp, finds a 45-38 lead for Zaun. (There was also a June poll giving Zaun a 41-32 lead. It was also by Victory Enterprises, and shared the same Republican-friendly party ID composition, but that one was for the Zaun campaign.)

• OR-05: He’s Scott Bruun, and he drives a truck. He also supports privatizing Social Security. Or doesn’t he? Bruun has reversed himself several times on how he frames the issue, depending on who his audience is, but either way, he seems to be relying on the Paul Ryan roadmap for his ideas.

• Passages: Here’s a sad bookend to yesterday’s death of Ted Stevens: today’s death of another legendary, long-time Congressman who was a master at horse-trading and pork-wrangling, this one from the other side of the aisle. Former Rep. Dan Rostenkowski, one of the biggest Democratic names to fall in 1994, died at age 82.

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 38%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%

• FL-Sen: Jeff Greene (D) 20%, Marco Rubio (R) 36%, Charlie Crist (I) 37%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%

• TN-Gov: Mike McWherter (D) 31%, Bill Haslam (R) 56%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 48%, Dave Westlake (R) 39%

Fundraising in the cycle before an election can give us signs of who is thinking about retirement or who is planning for a tough re-election. Looking through 2009-2010 FEC reports for 2012 Senate candidates contains some surprises about incumbents assumed to be likely 2012 retirements, such as Dianne Feinstein and Ben Nelson. Below you can find the fundraising, cash on hand, and debt of every incumbent senator up for re-election in 2012, with the exception of Kirsten Gillibrand, who first has to win a 2010 election and West Virginia, where we do not know who the incumbent will be.

I will arrange it by the amount (least to greatest) that the Senator has raised this cycle:

Senator- Raised this cycle- Cash on Hand- Debt

(D-HI)Daniel Akaka- $19,000- $78,050- $0

(R-TX)Kay Bailey Hutchison- $77,788- $50,628- $0

(I-CT)Joe Lieberman- $81,721- $1,261,561- $0

(D-NM)Jeff Binjaman- $147,146- $366,018- $0

(D-WI)Herb Kohl*- $198,207- $15,549- $0

(I-VT)Bernie Sanders- $259,622- $141,661- $0

(R-WY)John Barrasso- $384,215- $554,739- $0

(R-ME)Olympia Snowe- $407,009- $1,085,714- $0

(R-NV)John Ensign- $444,161- $961,247- $0

(R-IN)Dick Lugar- $464,852- $2,350,060- $0

(R-AZ)Jon Kyl- $562,490- $600,327- $0

(D-MD)Ben Cardin- $613,752- $379,594- $0

(D-ND)Kent Conrad- $616,187- $1,905,346- $0

(D-VA)Jim Webb- $688,356- $509,959- $0

(D-DE)Tom Carper- $734,118- $935,791- $0

(D-MT)Jon Tester- $844,975- $500,768- $0

(D-RI)Sheldon Whitehouse- $855,136- $589,527- $0

(R-MS)Roger Wicker- $919,844- $401,796- $0

(D-MO)Claire McCaskill- $1,087,857- $793,586- $0

(D-WA)Maria Cantwell*- $1,111,117- $316,029- $2,180,161

(D-NE)Ben Nelson- $1,218,005- $1,180,852- $0

(R-UT)Orrin Hatch- $1,286,657- $2,300,247- $0

(D-MN)Amy Klobuchar- $1,351,502- $1,307,076- $0

(D-PA)Bob Casey- $1,379,122- $876,815- $0

(R-TN)Bob Corker- $1,406,025- $$796,477- $0

(D-CA)Dianne Feinstein- $1,492,719- $3,641,409- $0

(D-OH)Sherrod Brown- $1,695,542- $1,442,660- $0

(D-FL)Bill Nelson- $1,736,308- $2,712,340- $0

(D-MI)Debbie Stabenow- $1,880,157- $$1,407,087- $8,303

(D-NJ)Bob Menendez- $2,207,492- $2,036,673- $0

(R-MA)Scott Brown- $17,005,388- $6,034,498- $158,513

*Ability and willingness to self-fund

Scott Brown raised a huge amount of money in the run up to the MA special election, so much that he couldn’t spend it all. He had about 5 million left over immediately after the election, and has added an addition million to his campaign account since then. He heads into 2011 with the largest bank account of any senator up for re-election in 2012, other than Gillibrand, who has an election this year.

Incumbents Ben Nelson, Dianne Feinstein, Orrin Hatch, Tom Carper, and Olympia Snowe, all retirement possibilities in 2012, have raised decent amounts of money for their campaigns so far. Senators Daniel Akaka, Jeff Binjaman, Joe Lieberman, and Kay Bailey Hutchison, all retirement possibilities, are not raising much money. Hutchison has already announced her retirement, but she also announced her resignation two years ago. Dick Lugar and John Ensign, both considered very likely retirements, are still raising money. Herb Kohl is also considered a potential retirement in 2012, but it is difficult to tell from his fundraising reports, since he self-funds all of his bids.  

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (8/7-8, Colorado voters):

John Hickenlooper (D): 50

Dan Maes (R): 38

Undecided: 12

John Hickenlooper (D): 48

Dan Maes (R): 23

Tom Tancredo (C): 22

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±3.1%)

PPP’s newest look at the Colorado gubernatorial race finds Denver mayor and Dem nominee John Hickenlooper in pole position, regardless of whether ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo follows through on his kamikaze mission to run on the Constitution Party line. With the GOP having chosen paranoid bike-hating very-very-small-businessman Dan Maes as their standard bearer, there’s really no path to victory for them. (Not that Scott McInnis, mortally wounded by plagiarism scandal, would likely have fared any better. Although that’s purely conjecture… I assume that PPP polled Hickenlooper/McInnis when they took this sample last week, since McInnis still had a decent shot of winning the primary, but they don’t release those numbers today.) (Also, note that there are no trendlines from their May poll, as the idea that they’d have to be polling based on Maes, let alone Maes and Tancredo justifiably didn’t occur to them.)

The favorable numbers tell most of the story: Hickenlooper is at 50/33 (including 47/30 among indies), extremely strong for any Dem gubernatorial candidate anywhere, while Maes and Tancredo are pretty widely reviled, at 23/38 and 27/50 respectively… and bear in mind that there’s probably a lot of overlap in that one-quarter of the electorate, meaning that Maes and Tancredo are going to be competing over the few crazies who can tolerate them.

OK, OK, there is one way the Republicans can salvage this race, although that got a lot slimmer with Maes having won the primary rather than McInnis (who was a loyal enough solider that he might have dropped out). They can: 1) convince Maes, who’s vowed to stay in, to drop out for someone more electable, 2) get someone like Jane Norton or Josh Penry (UPDATE: or self-funding ReMax founder Dave Liniger?) to take over, and 3) hope that the presence of a more electable Republican drives the rather, um, mercurial Tom Tancredo out of the race. It’s at least imaginable, and I’m sure state party chair Dick Wadhams is already working the phone lines, but it’s something of a triple bank shot for the GOP to hang their hopes on. As a result, Swing State Project is moving this race from Tossup to Lean Democratic.

UPDATE: PPP’s Tom Jensen kindly shared with us the Scott McInnis numbers that they tested. Hickenlooper would have beaten McInnis 52-38 in a two-way, and 48-24-22 in a three-way, barely budging the numbers.

STILL ANOTHER UPDATE: A new Politico piece from Dave Catanese — mostly focusing on McInnis having conceded to Maes and offering his support — quotes Maes as saying that Wadhams “pledged to back whoever wins the primary and I believe him.” Maes was also later quoted as saying “that rattlesnake pledged not to bite me, and I believe him.”