Month: August 2010

• Colorado: What looked like a hotly contested race on the Democratic side of the Senate race (thanks to a mixed bag of poll results, including an Andrew Romanoff lead according to SurveyUSA) turned into a fairly comfortable win for Michael Bennet in the end. Propped up by Obama and DSCC help, and weathering a last-minute patented hit job from the New York Times, Bennet won 54-46. Maybe this’ll help put to sleep two memes that are getting very very tiresome: that it’s an “anti-incumbent year,” and that Obama endorsees all lose. Bennet will face off against Ken Buck, who defeated Jane Norton in the GOP primary 52-48. Polls haven’t been conclusive in terms of whether Dems should have wanted to face off against Buck or Norton. Buck gets lumped in with Sharron Angle and Rand Paul because of his teabagger proclivities, but he’s considerably more skilled than they are; nevertheless, he still seems gaffe-prone and irritable, so I’ll take him.

Dan Maes won the GOP gubernatorial nod, 51-49. The only way things could have gone better for Dems in the GOP gubernatorial race would be if Maes’ margin had been small enough to force a recount. The risk here was that irreparably-damaged Scott McInnis would win and then, being a good GOP team player, promptly drop out, allowing a better Republican (Jane Norton?) to take his place, which would then drive Tom Tancredo out of his indie bid. Maes has vowed to fight on, though, and his underwhelming presence is likely to keep Tancredo in the race, meaning not one but two guys not just spewing the crazy, but splitting the crazy vote and ensuring Gov. John Hickenlooper.

Finally, in Colorado, the GOP House primaries were uneventful wins for establishment candidates, with Ryan Frazier beating Lang Sias 64-36 in CO-07 and Scott Tipton beating Bob McConnell (Sarah Palin’s other losing endorsee yesterday) winning 56-44 in CO-03.

• Connecticut: Probably the biggest surprise of the night was the 58-42 victory by former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy over Ned Lamont in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, seeing as how Lamont had led all polls (although polls did capture a late and rapid Malloy surge). The lesson here mostly boils down to one more race where the organizational power of the local political establishment was able to overcome the money of a rich outsider, but there’s one other story here that Dem message-setters will hopefully notice. Judging by when polls saw the race tigthen, the wheels seemed to come off Lamont’s campaign with a late round of attack ads that focused on layoffs at Lamont’s company. Taking not just that but the air war in the PA-12 special in mind (where Mark Critz won in large measure by hammering Tim Burns over outsourcing), it really seems like, despite this year’s overarching CW, voters will go for a “career politician” over a self-described job-creating outsider businessman, once it’s made clear that said businessman’s interest in jobs only extends as far as his own bottom line.

Malloy will face a flawed Tom Foley in November, and based on general election polling recently should be considered a slight favorite. Foley won the GOP primary narrowly over Lt. Governor Michael Fedele and Oz Griebel 42-39-19. Also, for the GOP, Linda McMahon unsurprisingly won the GOP primary in the face of Rob Simmons’ half-assed comeback-type-thing. Simmons and Paulist economist Peter Schiff did keep her under 50% though: 49-28-23. McMahon faces Richard Blumenthal in November, who already launched his first TV ad this morning, shirking a no-doubt-tempting smackdown in favor of… what’s that thing that McMahon doesn’t have… oh, yeah. Dignity. The three GOP House primaries led to expected victories for Janet Peckinpaugh in CT-02 (43-38 over Daria Novak), Dan Debicella in CT-04 (60-24 over Rob Merkle), and Sam Caligiuri in CT-05 (40-32-28 over Justin Bernier and Mark Greenberg).

• Georgia: The main event in Georgia was the GOP gubernatorial runoff, and hoo boy, did it live up to its billing. The two candidates finished in recount territory at 50-50, with Nathan Deal leading Karen Handel by 2,500 votes. Unfortunately, Handel just conceded this morning rather than following through with the recount, so Dem nominee Roy Barnes doesn’t get to spend weeks watching them keep fighting it out. Pundits will no doubt focus on the proxy war aspects of the battle (“Huck beats Palin!”), but the outcome seems to have more to do with Deal consolidating conservative votes outside the Atlanta area, where Handel’s anti-corruption, anti-good-ol’-boyism message may have fallen flat.

We also had outcomes in three GOP House primaries, one to determine the nominee in a Likely Dem race, and the others to determine who’s the next Rep. in dark-red districts. In GA-07, establishment-backed former John Linder CoS Rob Woodall beat teabagging radio talker Jody Hice, 56-44. In GA-09, Rep. Tom Graves won his fourth (and probably final) faceoff against Lee Hawkins, 55-45. And in GA-12, Ray McKinney beat Carl Smith 62-38 for the right to take on Rep. John Barrow. If you want to argue that this year’s crop of Republican candidates is radioactive, you don’t need to look any further than McKinney; he’s a nuclear power plant project manager by day.

• Minnesota: Finally, there was only one race worth watching last night in Minnesota, and it turned out to be a barnburner: the DFL gubernatorial primary. State House speaker (and DFL endorsee) Margaret Anderson Kelliher led most of the night based on her strength in the Twin Cities, but as results trickled in from the rest of the state, ex-Sen. Mark Dayton crept into the lead. In the end, despite having convincing pre-primary poll leads, Dayton won 41-40-18 over Kelliher and Matt Entenza. Dayton pretty clearly benefited not only from his statewide familiarity, but also from picking a running mate from Duluth, where he cleaned up, late in the game. With a 7,000 margin separating them, Kelliher didn’t concede last night… but she did this morning, meaning Dayton faces the increasingly woeful GOP nominee Tom Emmer in November. The most recent spate of polls has given Dayton double-digits advantages in that matchup.

IL-Sen: Crain’s Chicago Business is reporting that a teabaggish libertarian, Michael Labno, appears to have survived challenges to his petitions and will likely appear on the ballot this fall. Presumably this is good news for Alexi Giannoulias.

NV-Sen: Who knew he was even gone? Sketchball and possibly ersatz teabagger Scott Ashjian had apparently been AWOL for some time, but Jon Ralston has been keeping tabs. The erstwhile Ashjian put out his first press release in however long yesterday, to remind the world that he exists. It also serves the remind the world that he does not know how to use spell check.

AR-01: GOPer Rick Crawford just caught a break: conservative indie candidate Richard Walden just dropped out of the race and threw his backing to the Republican.

IN-09: Another similar story to the AR-01 item above: Indie Ron Kimsey has bailed on the race, in order to help Republican Todd Young beat Rep. Baron Hill.

NM-02: In one of the first independent expenditures aimed at the general election, Defenders of Wildlife plunked down $125,000 for a two-week buy to air an ad against GOP retread Steve Pearce. Big problem, though: The Pearce campaign put out a press release saying they got KOAT-TV to take down the ad on the grounds that it was false and misleading. Really hate to see a Dem ally stumble out of the gate like this.

NY-14: Talk about chutzpah: Reshma Saujani baselessly attacked Carolyn Maloney for the fact that the 9/11 healthcare bill failed to pass, carping that “A real leader would have passed this bill years ago.” Not only did this bill fail purely due to Republican obstructionism, I’d like to know where Saujani was lobbying on this legislation “years ago.” Fortunately, the attack has generated some swift blowback: the president of the Uniformed Firefighters Association says he supports Maloney’s efforts, and the head of the NY AFL-CIO said Saujani’s charges were “absolutely ridiculous.” Now, the chief of the Uniformed Fire Officers Association (a different outfit) has also chimed in, slamming Saujani for her “disingenuous and offensive” attacks.

PA-15: Say what you will about Bill Clinton, but the man is touring America like a fuggin’ champ on behalf of Democratic candidates this year. In addition to stumping on behalf of Joe Sestak yesterday, Clinton stopped by the Lehigh Valley to help Dem John Callahan raise $150K for his race against GOP incumbent Charlie Dent. (JL)

WV-01: Politico reports that the AFL-CIO is threatening to remain neutral in this race, rather than back Dem Mike Oliverio, who hasn’t exactly compiled a very pro-labor record. (Indeed, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers endorsed his Republican opponent, David McKinley.) It could of course all be a ploy to extract promises out of Oliverio. (If so, good.) In any event, the AFL will decide on an endorsement this weekend.

(At least I think the votes are all in.  I’m not sure, but it’s been three whole days now.)

So apart from our statewide races (Gov, LG, SoS, and Comptroller), our town had just one local race: the race for probate court judge.

Background information and analysis is beneath the fold.

4:09 pm: Well, we now have East Windsor results.  Again, I’m not sure if this is the full count, but this would be a slightly even lower turnout than South Windsor’s (at 5.6% instead of 6.9%).  Well, Fisher didn’t even get a total number of votes bigger than Griffin’s margin–it’s Fisher 311-241.  Final tally of all three is Griffin 2665-2351.  Griffin wins the D primary, and he goes on to a rematch with Fisher in the general election, but with Fisher as the R nominee.  I’d say he’s now definitely favored, and now I’m wondering if there was some other local race in Windsor that really drove up turnout.

13 August 2010

1:52 pm: Wow, finally, some results!  South Windsor, Fisher’s home, has reported, and as expected, she won big, 1305-408.  However, assuming these are all the results, this is a notably lower turnout here relative to Windsor–only 1713 votes total, out of a population of about 25,000.  Griffin now leads by under 400 votes.  Can East Windsor make up Fisher’s deficit, with a 2000 census population of only 9,818?

12 August 2010

9:00 pm: It’s been a whole day now, and they still only have the Windsor results.  I wonder when they’re counting the ballots; I know there’s at least two votes in Fisher’s column in South Windsor (mine and my mom’s) so I know they haven’t reported yet.

1:51 am: Still nothing new.  I’m taking a break from following the main reporting thread on the front page and going off to watch some Record of Lodoss War.  It’s completely possible that they still won’t have reported several episodes later, so I might just turn in for the night if that’s the case.  I’ll bump this thread tomorrow with a comment if there are new results.  I also added a bit more commentary about the demographics of each town.

1:36 am: Nothing new reported, but I’ve just posted this diary.

1:04 am: Windsor has reported.  Not surprisingly, Griffin won big there, 2016 to 735.

11 August 2010

11:29 pm: No results from any of the three towns yet.

10 August 2010

CT SoS election results, probably updated irregularly as results come in

Marianne Lassman Fisher is the probate court judge in South Windsor and East Windsor.  Brian Griffin is the probate court judge in nearby Windsor, across the Connecticut River.  But the two probate court districts are being combined into a single district, to be called Region 4.

The Democratic primary was held on 10 August 2010, as with everything else, of course.  Both of these candidates are Democrats.

Here is the local newspaper’s background on the race.

Note this important detail: a Griffin loss in this primary would mean that he’d have to wait four years to run for this office again, but a Fisher loss in this primary is tempered by the fact that Fisher has been cross-endorsed by the Republicans and thus will still appear on the ballot for a rematch this November.  (Though this isn’t as favorable obviously; and all three communities are Democratic-leaning at a national level.)

Demographics of Windsor, demographics of East Windsor, demographics of South Windsor.

Based on this being a low-info, low-issue-politics race where each candidate seems to have their own base, I’m predicting a Fisher win based on her having a larger base–about 25,000+9,000 versus about 28,000.  Additionally, Windsor is on average a slightly poorer community with a greater percentage of minorities.  Though the sparse and even less wealthy East Windsor may eat into Fisher’s potential additional margin from that town, so it may yet be close.

4:19am: One last update from beyond the grave: Dan Maes wins the Republican gubernatorial nomination — joyous news for Democrats everywhere. The final margin, according to the AP, was 50.7% Maes, 49.3% McInnis.

3:17am: The SSP news team is calling it a night. Hopefully we wake up tomorrow to find Dan Maes as the GOP nominee in Colorado and Karen Handel and Nathan Deal locked in a drawn-out recount battle. (One is allowed to dream, right?)

2:48am: Deep Thought: Have Colorado’s ballot-counters been kidnapped by the UN’s armada of black helicopters? We may never know…

2:47am: We’re now at 94.2% reporting, and Dan Maes by just shy of 5200 votes. Come on, you whacko, let’s blow this thing and go home!

1:37am: With 91% reporting, Dan Maes in CO-Gov has a lead just shy of 4,000 votes. By the way, somewhere along the way, the AP finally called CO-03’s GOP primary for Scott Tipton (56-44), not that you were probably agonizing over that one.

1:33am: Ah, now the AP has made it official on their own site. Dayton will face Tom Emmer (and IP nominee Tom Horner) in November, in a pretty interesting political second act.

1:30am: While the AP’s site itself doesn’t have the red check mark, Politico is saying that the AP has called MN-Gov for Mark Dayton. (Looks like they can do the same math, regarding Duluth, that I can.) 95% are reporting, and Dayton has moved into a 4,000 vote margin (still 41-40), with 135/178 of St. Louis now reported.

1:25am: Things are pretty stable for Dan Maes in CO-Gov, with 90% reporting. Maes leads 50.5%-49.5%, outside auto-recount territory. He has an almost 4,000 vote margin. That’s with all of Denver having reported, and the outstanding precincts coming in Maes-friendly counties like El Paso and Douglas.

1:20am: Apparently auto-recount territory in Minnesota is also one-half of one percent. Dayton is at 40.8%, while Kelliher has 40.3%. So we’re literally right on the cusp. (Although if things keep going for Dayton, he’ll soon be out of the zone.)

1:17am: Now things are really moving in Dayton’s direction. He’s up to a 1,000 vote margin, with 94% reporting. St. Louis is at 100/178 now, which is pushing things for Dayton.

1:10am: Mark Dayton has moved into the lead in MN-Gov. Just barely… it’s 41-40 in his favor now, with a 400-vote margin. But that seems likely to increase, with St. Louis still with only 68 of 178 reporting. That’s with 91% reporting overall. Seems to be mostly rural counties filling in the gap, so Duluth will be the icing on Dayton’s cake.

12:44am: Also regarding CO-Gov, the only counties that were really keeping McInnis in this at all were the ones in his old CO-03, like Mesa (72-28 McInnis) and Pueblo (53-47 McInnis). Denver is 51-49 McInnis and all the other suburban/exurban counties are going for Maes. Mesa (Grand Jct.) and Pueblo are done reporting, while there are still lots of outstanding precincts in El Paso, Arapahoe and Jefferson (suburbs), Douglas (exurbs), and Larimer (Ft. Collins): all Maes counties.

12:40am: Via the twittermajig, Jennifer Duffy points out two helpful things: one, the recount level in Colorado is one-half of one percent. Right now, Maes is up, believe it or not, 50.26%-49.74%, so he’s just outside that zone. (That’s with 79% reporting.) Second, though, she points out that he’s expected to run strongest in El Paso County (Colorado Spgs.), where there are still a couple hundred precincts outstanding, so it’s looking more like Maes will win this thing recount-free.

12:34am: Things are verrry slowly converging in Minnesota. 87% are reporting now, and it’s 41-40, MAK over Dayton, but that’s with only a 600 vote lead. And St. Louis still hasn’t added any more precincts! Most of the new votes seem to have come in from Stearns Co (St. Cloud), where Dayton leads 42-34.

12:23am: Go, crazy bike-hating campaign-finance-law-violating guy! Dan Maes, with 78% in now, has padded his advantage, up to a 1,600 vote lead over plagiarist Scott McInnis. I’m not familiar with Colorado recount law, but that’s a 50.2%-49.8% advantage.

12:17am: Sifting over Minnesota results with a fine-toothed comb, it looks like Beltrami Co. (Bemidji) is the second biggest clot of outstanding precincts. (7 of 62 have reported.) Dayton has a narrower edge there, 41-38. There’s also some smaller counties (Pine, Pope, Roseau) that haven’t reported anything (all of which have 40-some precincts, all of which are rural counties… again, not that there’s a clear pattern among the rural counties, but the general trend in such counties seems to favor Dayton.

12:12am: Actually, I take that back, I am sensing a pattern. The biggest clot of outstanding votes are in St. Louis County (Duluth and the Iron Range), where only 49 of 178 have reported. Hennepin and Ramsey (the Twin Cities) are done reporting. Dayton seems to have an advantage in St. Louis, seeing as how he was previously elected statewide, whereas MAK has a small Twin Cities constituency. Dayton’s winning 54-30 in St. Louis, so if he can keep those numbers up, he might actually pull this out in the end.

12:10am: Things are very close in Minnesota now, with 81% reporting. MAK leads Dayton 41-40, with Entenza at 18. It’s less than a 4,000 vote lead for Kelliher, out of about 375,000. I can’t discern a pattern among the counties… Kelliher and Dayton are both from the Twin Cities… so it’s hard to see how much of a trend is at work here.

12:02am: Rocky Mountain high? Looks like they may be taking a ganja break in Colorado, where the needle’s been stuck on 75% reporting for a while. Dan Maes still has about a 1,200 vote lead over Scott McInnis.

11:39pm: OK, now the AP has called it for Ken Buck, for those of you keeping close score at home.

11:37pm: Things are staying fairly stable but close in Minnesota. With 67% reporting, it’s MAK 42, Dayton 39, Entenza 18. It’ll be a while till we know what’s what here.

11:36pm: And the GOP gubernatorial primary in Colorado keeps puttering along, at 50-50 with Maes currently up by 1,050.

11:35pm: In Colorado, various twitterers are saying Ken Buck has won, but the AP hasn’t graced us with a red checkmark yet. He’s up 52-48 with 76% reporting, though, so it looks pretty locked in. Kind of a faceplant for John McCain, who extended a lot of political capital to ally Norton the last few weeks.

11:20pm: 75% in in Colorado. Things are looking slightly better for Dan Maes, or better yet, for a protracted recount that ends with a Maes win. It’s 50-50 with a 1,300 lead for Maes.

11:16pm: Wow, things are definitely tightening in MN-Gov. It’s now 42 MAK, 39 Dayton, 18 Entenza. That’s with 55% reporting. Nate Silver just tweeted that he sees this coming down to a few thousand votes. (Currently Kelliher’s lead is about 10,000.)

11:12pm: 2897 out of 2898 precincts have reported in Georgia. I think that’s about as complete as we’re going to get… and no call from the AP. Deal leads 291,713 to 289,353. Karen Handel had better hope there are 2,500 Handel votes in that last precinct. That’s 50.2%-49.8% for Deal, so we are pretty certainly heading for a recount.

11:10pm: Somewhere along the way, the AP called the CO-07 GOP primary for Ryan Frazier, 65-35. He’ll face Ed Perlmutter in an uphill fight in November.

11:08pm: Although 52-48 qualifies as a close race, it’s pretty mundane compared with the excitement in GA-Gov and CO-Gov. Ken Buck leads Jane Norton by 4%, or by 10,000 votes.

11:06pm: Let’s take one more look at Colorado. In the Gov GOP primary, it’s Dan Maes up by only about 500 votes, at 50-50. Could we possibly see two recounts between GOPers? Best possible outcome, recount followed by Maes victory, and him fighting to bitter end. 73% are reporting.

10:52pm: MAK now leads Dayton by 43-38 with 42% in.

10:48pm: Irish eyes are smiling (I guess) — Tom Foley has won the GOP gube nomination in Connecticut.

10:44pm: We’re up to 99.4% reporting in GA-Gov. Deal leads by 3,500 — or 0.6% of the vote. We’re definitely in the recount zone here.

10:42pm: It’s worth noting that Taryl Clark is only getting 65% of the vote against Maureen Reed. Perhaps some Reed supporters didn’t hear the news that she dropped out of the race two months ago.

10:38pm: MAK’s lead over Mark Dayton has fallen even further, to 44-38 with 32% reporting.

10:37pm: With 67% in, Ken Buck is now up over Jane Norton by nearly ten grand. Maes still leads McInnis by one g.

10:33pm: The AP went on a binge in Connecticut, calling CT-02 for ex-TV anchor Janet Pecinpaugh, CT-04 for Dan Debicella, and CT-05 for Sam Caligiuri. The Republican gubernatorial primary is still un-called, with Tom Foley leading Michael Fedele by 43-38 (74% of the vote in).

10:30pm: Over in Minnesota, the Dem gube primary is narrowing slightly — MAK leads Dayton by 45-37 with 28% in.

10:27pm: Bicyclists beware, Dan Maes is back up in the GOP CO-Gov primary. He leads McInnis by 1000 votes with 65% reporting.

---

RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico

10:24pm: Time to move this party over to a freshly baked thread.

10:24pm: Guess who’s happy in Georgia? Roy Barnes. The GOPers seem possible that they’ll enter into an automatic runoff, with 97% reporting. It’s a 50.5%-49.5% advantage for Nathan Deal.

10:22pm: We’re up to 23% reporting in Minnesota, and things seem to be solidifying: MAK is still in the lead at 46, with Dayton at 36 and Entenza at 17.

10:16pm: No calls yet in CO-03 and CO-07, but Tipton leads McConnell 55-45 and Frazier leads Sias 65-35, not much drama left there.

10:15pm: By contrast, things are spreading a little more in CO-Sen R. Ken Buck now leads 52-48 over Norton.

10:14pm: Uh oh. McInnis has pulled back into the lead in CO-Gov, at least according to the AP. It’s 50-50, with a McInnis lead of 2,000.

10:12pm: Andrew Romanoff has reportedly called Michael Bennet to concede.

10:10pm: Just keep in mind: Georgia has an automatic recount for results within 1%. With 96% reporting, Handel has tightened things a little, to a 50.4%-49.6% race. 4,500 votes separate them.

10:08pm: Here’s a useful tidbit: the AP has called the IP primary in MN-Gov for Tom Horner. I’d heard reports that random GOPers (with no major primary of their own) were thinking of crossing over to sandbag Horner and try to get someone less appealing there, as the center-right Horner seems likelier to spoil things for Emmer than the Dem nominee.

10:07pm: We might also expect a call soon in CT-04 (where Dan Debicella’s at 64%, although only about one-third is reporting) and maybe also CT-05, where 75% is reporting and Caligiuri keeps gaining a little more daylight: he now leads Bernier and Greenberg 41-31-29.

10:03pm: The AP has called the CT-Sen GOP primary for Linda McMahon. She beats Simmons and Schiff 49-29-22. Still not sure I understand Simmons’ gambit, but at this point, it doesn’t matter. Let’s get ready for Blumenthal and McMahon to rumble.

10:01pm: Could Minnesota be another primary that the pollsters all got wrong? With 15% reporting, Margaret Anderson Kelliher is actually adding to her lead. She’s leading the lazy men at 47, with 35 for Dayton and 17 for Entenza.

9:58pm: The AP hasn’t called CO-Sen D, but the Denver Post have, and they probably know their state well. They just called it for Michael Bennet, who will not be joining Bob Bennett in the retirement home.

9:57pm: With ballots going to be counted over the coming days (Washington-style, they’ll count anything with today’s postmark), it may be a while till we know who wins either the R primaries in CO-Gov or CO-Sen. On the Senate side, it’s also Ken Buck 51, Jane Norton 49. For the Dems, it’s Michael Bennet 54, Andrew Romanoff 46.

9:55pm: Switching back to Colorado: it looks like they’re losing a little momentum in the count, as after quickly reaching half they’re only at 56% reporting now statewide. In the Gov GOP primary, Dan Maes still has a 51-49 lead over Scott McInnis.

9:54pm: I know you were on pins and needles about the wingnut-vs-wingnut duel in GA-07. The AP has called it in favor of former John Linder CoS Rob Woodall, 55-45, over Jody Hice.

9:52pm: We’re closing in on done in Georgia. (Apparently the Fulton County website is the one that’s right, and 75% there have reported.) Overall, 93% are in, and we’re still not close to knowing who won GA-Gov R. Deal still leads Handel 51-49, with a 7,000 vote lead out of more than 500K.

9:50pm: In CT-05, Sam Caligiuri is picking up a little speed. He’s at 40, vs. 30 each for Bernier and Greenberg, with about one-third reporting.

9:49pm: I wonder how Rob Simmons would be doing if he hadn’t done the weird Ross Perot-style angry dropout and half-assed return? Although it’s looking like Linda McMahon will win comfortably, Simmons plus Peter Schiff are keeping her below the halfway mark: 48-30-22.

9:47pm: It’ll be a while till we get a call in the GOP gube race in CT. Fedele’s definitely keeping things interesting, having had a late surge of his own. He’s at 37 to Foley’s 43, with 20 for Griebel.

9:45pm: The Hartford Courant is reporting that Ned Lamont has conceded the gubernatorial primary. (Guess who’s heaving a sigh of relief? Joe Lieberman.) And the AP just called the race, too. It’s 58-42 Malloy, with a little less than half reporting.

9:44pm: A little weirdness to note in Fulton County, Georgia. Their county website say they’re reporting 75% in, but they only have a few thousand more votes reported than according to the AP… and the AP says Fulton is only 21% reporting. We’ll have to see how this resolves itself.

9:42pm: We’re up to 2% in in MN-Gov’s DFL primary now, and things have switched here too. Kelliher’s now in the lead at 44, with Dayton at 33 and Kelliher at 22. A lot of Ramsey Co. (St. Paul) votes have come in, and they’re going for MAK by a wide margin.

9:40pm: Sad news for rematch fans. In GA-13 (not an interesting race, except for Base Connect enthusiasts), Deborah “The Defrauder” Honeycutt has lost her GOP runoff. The AP calls it for Mike Crane, 68-32; Crane will face David Scott in this safe Dem district.

9:39pm: There’s also those wee House races in Colorado. In CO-07’s GOP primary, Ryan Frazier seems to have this under control, beating Lang Sias 65-35 with more than half in. And with about a quarter in, Scott Tipton is way ahead of Bob McConnell, 58-42.

9:37pm: Also in Colorado, where we’ve shot past 50% reporting (to 56), things have swapped around in the Senate race. Ken Buck now leads Jane Norton, by a narrow 51-49 (133K to 127K), and Michael Bennet now leads Andrew Romanoff by a more convincing 54-46 (129K to 109K).

9:35pm: As things progress in Colorado, Dan Maes is starting to pull into the lead in the GOP gube primary. He leads Scott McInnis 52-48. That’s extremely good news, as Maes won’t drop out (while McInnis might, allowing a salvageable replacement) and will see this through to the bitter end.

9:32pm: The CT-04 GOP primary isn’t too remarkable (Dan Debicella is at 62% against two Some Dudes), but CT-05 is a three-way barnburner. Sam Caligiuri currently has a small edge, with 20% reporting. He leads Justin Bernier and Mark Greenberg 37-33-30.

9:30pm: Meanwhile, on the GOP side in Connecticut, Tom Foley is keeping his edge; he leads Michael Fedele and Oz Griebel 45-36-19. (Griebel, as the least known but also apparently least objectionable of the three, also seems to be overperforming.)

9:28pm: Dan Malloy is starting to put a little distance between him and Ned Lamont in the Connecticut governor’s Dem primary. Malloy now leads 58-42 with 28% reporting. Looks like Malloy’s way overperforming the polls, although the polls did capture his late surge.

9:25pm: We finally have some numbers in Minnesota, although it’s only a fraction of a percent of precincts reporting, from bellwether Anoka and Dakota Cos. in the MSP suburbs. Mark Dayton is at 43, with Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 36 and Matt Entenza at 20.

9:23pm: Insert Dan Ratherism here about the closeness of the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff. Nathan Deal leads Karen Handel 51-49 with 79% in, with about a 9,000 vote margin out of over 450,000 cast.

9:21pm: Looks like we have a few AP calls down in the Peach State. Tom Graves will get to stay in the House for another two years without having to face Lee Hawkins again; Graves wins GA-09 56-44. And in GA-12, Ray McKinney will get to take his nuclear power plant project management skills to the general election against John Barrow; he defeated Carl Smith 62-38. No call in GA-07 yet, although Rob Woodall leads Jody Hice 55-45 with about two-thirds in.

9:19pm: We’re racking up the numbers pretty quickly in Colorado now. Over in the Governor’s GOP primary, with almost 20% in, McInnis leads Maes by less than 1,000 votes, at 51-49.

9:11pm: Quite a few votes are reporting in Colorado, and Romanoff leads Bennet by 51-49 with 14% of precincts in. Norton leads Buck by 54-46 so far.

9:09pm: We’re at 70% reporting in GA, and Deal leads Handel by 237,146 to 229,295.

C’mon baby, let’s go!

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RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico

9:01pm: Now that MN and CO are closed, let’s move this party over here.

8:55pm: 64% in, and Deal leads by 212,126 to 201,445.

8:50pm: Fulton County fans should know that they have their own results website, featuring a mind-bogglingly annoying auto-scroll feature. Enjoy!

8:47pm: So we’re up to 61% reporting in GA, and Deal leads Handel by 194,074 to 185,254.

8:44pm: Back in Connecticut, Malloy leads Lamont by 57-43 with about 10% in. Foley is up on Fedele by 46-45. Janet Peckinpaugh leads Daria Novak by 43-37 in the 2nd, and Caligiuri leads Greenberg by only 35-33 in the 5th.

8:37pm: 54% reporting in GA, and Deal’s lead has closed to 168,784-162,623.

8:26pm: We’re now at 43% reporting in Georgia, and Deal now leads Handel by 123,489 votes to 114,045. Deal’s keeping his 4% lead steady.

8:21pm: Over in the Nutmeg state, Foley leads Fedele by 46-34 with 2% of town precincts reporting. Malloy is up by 56-44 over Lamont, and McMahon has a 48-27-25 lead over Simmons and Schiff. In the 5th CD, Sam Caligiuri has a 36-32-32 lead over businessman Mark Greenberg and Afganistan vet Justin Bernier.

8:18pm: We’re up to 34% reporting in GA, and Nathaniel Deal is holding onto a 83,957-77,554 lead.

8:10pm: Deal is now leading by a full 4%, 72,107 to 66,595, with 31% reporting. Handel’s even losing Gwinnett County narrowly to Deal, which she won by a large spread back in July.

8:09pm: If you’d like to compare tonight’s results to the first round of voting, check out this handy table of county results.

8:05pm: Again, this seems to be a rare night where the Associated Press (and, therefore, the Politico) are getting lapped by the Georgia SoS. With 28% in, Deal now leads by 56,437-53,131 (3%).

8:03pm: So back to GA: Deal now sports a 48,814-46,354 lead over Handel with 26% in.

8:02pm: Polls have now closed in Connecticut.

7:57pm: Look out! Deal just took a 0.6% lead, according to the SoS. 24% of precincts are now reporting.

7:53pm: The crew over at SSP Labs is still setting up the mainframe, but we should get some projections to you once the boys in the long white coats are good and ready.

7:52pm: Deal’s now pulled even (according to the SoS office), trailing Handel by just over 40 votes, 24,739-24,693. 18% reporting.

7:48pm: In the House races, Rob Woodall leads Jody Hice by 10% in GA-07, incumbent Tom Graves leads Screamin’ Lee Hawkins by 14% in GA-09, and Ray McKinney leads Carl Smith 10% in GA-12. Oh, and Deborah Honeycutt is getting thrashed by Mike Crane in the 13th.

7:46pm: Handel now leads by just under 1000 votes (2.6%) with 15% of precincts reporting.

7:35pm: It’s now 9,630 Handel, 8,899 Deal (a 4% lead) with 9% of precincts reporting, according to the SoS. Only 1% of e-day votes have been counted so far, though.

7:20pm: We’re up to 3% reporting (according to the SoS office), and Handel’s lead over Deal is now 2,240-2,052 (that’s 52%-48%).

7:13pm: The GA SoS has our first taste of results for the night, with Handel leading Deal by a mere 28 votes.

Polls have now closed in Georgia, and SSP Headline News will be using this thread to follow the returns. Connecticut closes at 8pm Eastern and Minnesota and Colorado close at 9pm Eastern. We’ll touch base with those states later.

---

RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico

This is the last part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state Virginia, which aims to offer some concluding thoughts. The previous parts can be found starting here.

Conclusions

As a state, Virginia’s population has always been located in three metropolitan areas: the Northern Virginia suburbs south of Washington D.C., Richmond and its suburbs, and the communities surrounding Hampton Roads. Together these three places compose more than half of Virginia’s electorate:

In all three metropolitan areas, Democrats have been improving their margins.

More below.

Virginia’s suburbs, expansive and traditionally Republican, have shifted leftwards with startling quickness. This movement has been most apparent in the largest of its suburbs, rich and diverse Northern Virginia. The addition of NoVa to Virginia’s heavily Democratic, heavily black cities has given the Democratic Party a coalition that has won a number of recent elections.

Not everything has gone badly for the Republican Party. They have captured a formerly loyal Democratic constituency – the Appalachian west, which voted Democratic based on economic appeals. Moreover, they still dominate the rural whites who in bygone days voted Democratic:

Thus, Virginia today is a state in change, like most states. Parts of it are shifting left and parts of it are shifting right; in aggregate, the effect has been to change it from a solidly Republican to swing state. Undoubtedly, other states will and are moving in the opposite direction.

Colorado, the next state in this series, is probably not one of those Republican-shifting states.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

GOPVOTER made a query about this data earlier and though this diary is intended for him I’m sure it proves to be a useful resource for everyone here at SSP.

We all know turnout from Republicans will be up and Democrats down from two years ago, the question is how much? Personally, I’ve been working under the assumption, based on the fact the change in New Jersey (competitive right until the end last November, unlike Virginia) was a six-point movement in favor of the GOP, of adding three to the Republican number and taking three from the Democratic number. Obviously it won’t be uniform like that but I think it a decent average by which to view the likely electorate this fall.

From left to right, Democrats, Republicans, Independents.

2004

Alabama

34-48-18

Alaska

19-41-40

Arizona

30-44-26

Arkansas

41-31-29

California

39-33-27

Colorado

29-38-33

Connecticut

37-30-33

Delaware

41-32-26

Florida

37-41-23

Georgia

34-42-24

Hawaii

40-24-36

Idaho

22-50-27

Illinois

39-34-27

Indiana

32-46-22

Iowa

34-36-30

Kansas

27-50-23

Kentucky

44-40-17

Louisiana

42-40-18

Maine

31-30-38

Maryland

48-30-22

Massachusetts

39-16-44

Michigan

39-34-27

Minnesota

38-35-27

Mississippi

38-47-15

Missouri

35-36-29

Montana

32-39-29

Nebraska

24-53-22

Nevada

35-39-26

New Hampshire

25-32-44

New Jersey

39-31-30

New Mexico

40-33-27

New York

45-29-26

North Carolina

39-40-21

North Dakota

27-41-32

Ohio

35-40-25

Oklahoma

40-43-16

Oregon

32-34-34

Pennsylvania

41-39-20

Rhode Island

39-16-45

South Carolina

33-44-23

South Dakota

32-47-21

Tennessee

32-40-28

Texas

32-43-24

Utah

19-58-24

Vermont

31-27-41

Virginia

35-39-26

Washington

36-32-33

West Virginia

50-32-18

Wisconsin

35-38-27

Wyoming

25-53-22

2008

Alabama

37-45-18

Alaska

20-37-43

Arizona

32-39-30

Arkansas

36-32-31

California

42-30-28

Colorado

30-31-39

Connecticut

43-27-31

Delaware

48-31-21

Florida

37-34-29

Georgia

38-35-28

Hawaii

45-20-34

Idaho

24-48-28

Illinois

47-28-26

Indiana

36-41-24

Iowa

34-33-33

Kansas

26-49-25

Kentucky

47-38-15

Louisiana

42-38-21

Maine

35-26-39

Maryland

51-28-21

Massachusetts

43-17-40

Michigan

41-29-29

Minnesota

40-36-25

Mississippi

40-45-15

Missouri

40-34-26

Montana

33-33-35

Nebraska

29-48-22

Nevada

38-30-32

New Hampshire

29-27-45

New Jersey

44-28-28

New Mexico

44-28-28

New York

50-26-25

North Carolina

42-31-27

North Dakota

28-38-33

Ohio

39-31-30

Oklahoma

41-44-14

Oregon

36-27-37

Pennsylvania

44-37-18

Rhode Island

42-16-42

South Carolina

38-41-20

South Dakota

36-42-22

Tennessee

32-33-35

Texas

33-34-33

Utah

21-50-29

Vermont

37-23-39

Virginia

39-33-27

Washington

36-26-39

West Virginia

48-34-19

Wisconsin

39-33-29

Wyoming

26-52-22

• AK-Sen: You might have seen mention at other sites of a Tea Party Express “poll” of the GOP Senate primary in Alaska that had Joe Miller within 9 points of Lisa Murkowski. Mother Jones has been digging around, trying to find the poll, and can find no confirmation of its existence or even word of who took the poll, from either the Miller campaign or TPE.

• CO-Sen: Jane Norton’s closing argument wasn’t about how great she was, but rather about her “concerns” with Ken Buck. Her interview with Politico this morning alluded to his “issues with spending and ethics.”

• IL-Sen: If all else fails, try tying your opponent to Saddam Hussein. That’s what Mark Kirk’s attempting, with an ad that accuses Broadway Bank of having made a 2006 loan to an Iraqi businessman with some sort of Hussein connections. Alexi Giannoulias pointed out that was after he’d already left the bank, but I think a better argument would be that Saddam Hussein was played in South Park Bigger Longer & Uncut by Matt Stone, who was in Baseketball with Greg Grunberg, who was in Hollow Man with Kevin Bacon.

• LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon is out with his very first TV ad, as he and GOP candidate Chet Traylor try to put the squeeze on David Vitter from both directions. The ad (NWOTSOTB for $115K) launches a direct hit on how Vitter “hasn’t been honest.”

• PA-Sen: Pat Toomey is out with yet another TV ad, a negative ad against opponent Joe Sestak. Their only word on the size of the buy is “significant.” The Toomey campaign has been on the air with at least five different ads for a month now, without seeming to budge the poll numbers at all. Sestak hasn’t hit the TV airwaves yet, and seems to, as was the case with his successful primary bid, marshalling his resources for a large salvo closer to the election.

• KS-Gov: Wow, check out the opponent Sam Brownback dispatched in the GOP gubernatorial primary, if you’re in the mood for serious nutjobbery. Joan Heffington alleges “CIA infiltration of western Kansas” and has faced sanctions for practicing law without a license. At any rate, having garnered 15% in the GOP primary, she’s now saying she’s a GDI (God-driven independent) and shouldn’t have gotten suckered into that whole Republican racket in the first place, and as such is launching a write-in candidacy for November.

• MI-Gov: You may remember state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, who pulled the plug on her gubernatorial candidacy on the day of the filing deadline, saying she didn’t want to split the progressive vote (and thus giving a big boost to Lansing mayor and eventual primary winner Virg Bernero). Probably figuring that Bernero owes her big-time and also that he’d like some diversity on the ticket, Smith is now floating her own name for the Lt. Governor slot.

• NY-Gov: GOP gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino has gone ahead and pulled the trigger on creating his own ballot line, the Taxpayers Party. It still remains a completely open question as to whether he plans to run on it if he loses the GOP primary, though. (He originally said he wouldn’t be a spoiler in the race against Andrew Cuomo, but then changed to an “options open” position.)

• IL-10: Dan Seals got apparently re-endorsed by the Illinois Federation of Teachers today. (He also had their backing in the Dem primary against Julie Hamos.)

• IL-11: Rep. Debbie Halvorson didn’t start out near the top of anyone’s list of vulnerable Democrats, but she’s starting to earn her position there. Republican opponent Adam Kinzinger has issued a second internal poll (the first one was in March) giving him a lead over Halvorson. The poll from POS gives him a 51-40 edge. (The article, however, helpfully points out that POS saw Halvorson with only a 2-point lead over the hapless Marty Ozinga six weeks before the election in 2008, a race which she went on to win by 24. Update: In 2008, we wrote about that POS poll here.)

• IN-02: Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly, no stranger to occasional use of conservative framing, goes an extra step in his new TV ad hating on those immigrants, using a photo of Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama when saying how he stands apart from “the Washington crowd.” John Boehner’s lurking in the photo’s background, too, so at least it’s bipartisan.

• KS-01: Wow, SurveyUSA sure likes polling KS-01, probably one of the likeliest races in the country to stay red. (Or at least KWCH-TV sure likes paying them to poll it.) They find Republican state Sen. Tim Huelskamp, who just won the primary, leading Dem Alan Jilka 65-23. (Jilka is a former mayor of Salina, which may actually make him a pretty big ‘get’ as far as this hopeless district goes.)

• NH-02: When is a lobbyist not a lobbyist? It turns out that Katrina Swett, who has denied (gasp) lobbying, in fact filled out the required federal paperwork in 1997 to register as a lobbyist, although now her defense is that she never actually got around to lobbying once she registered. Swett has previously been attacking Dem primary foe Ann McLane Kuster for her own previous lobbying work.

• TX-17: Rep. Chet Edwards got a key endorsement in this dark-red, largely rural Texas district: he got the backing of the NRA. It may seem odd to see so many conservaDems getting NRA backing, but the NRA’s policy is where there are two equally pro-gun candidates, the incumbent gets the nod.

• WV-01: Alan Mollohan 2.0? The man is actually talking like he’s eyeing a 2012 comeback, having filed FEC paperwork setting up a 2012 candidacy (although it’s unclear whether that was just to have a fundraising receptacle for donors’ funds to repay a personal loan to his committee). He also just issued a long memo to supporters, bashing, well, everyone, ranging from Republican House members who pursued ethics complaints against him while they were in charge, to Mike Oliverio, who he says defeated him in this year’s Dem primary using those discredited charges.

• Census: Next time a Republican complains to you about the ineffective, bloated government, point him in the direction of the Census, which just came in $1.6 billion under budget (out of a total $14.7 billion appropriated) as it wraps up its main phase. A solid 72% initial response rate helped save money on the inevitable follow-up process.

• Passages: Sadly, today we bid farewell to Ted Stevens, the long-serving Republican Senator from Alaska and chronicler of the inner workings of the series of tubes. Stevens died last night in a plane crash near the town of Dillingham, at the age of 86. Stevens was the survivor of a previous 1978 plane crash, which killed his first wife. We offer our best wishes to his friends and family.

• Rasmussen:

• IA-Sen: Roxanne Conlin (D) 35%, Chuck Grassley (R-inc) 55%

• IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth (D) 29%, Dan Coats (R) 50%

• NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 50%, John Stephen (R) 39%

Since the Republicans already control Pennsylvania’s state senate, and they have a decent shot at picking up the trifecta in 2010, I decided to create a map which should yield at least 13, and possibly 14, Republicans. Although not every district is maintained in its present form, every Republican incumbent has at least one district that has some portion of their base. In the process, I completely demolished Holden’s district, and gave most Democratic incumbents plenty of unfamiliar areas to deal with. I did not split any municipalities except when creating majority-minority districts, and the highest deviation from the mean in terms of population is 855.

Entire State:

Metro Philadelphia:

Districts are numbered in the order that they were created, since Pennsylvania’s current numbering system makes no sense anyway.

PA-1 (Blue in Metro Philly):

This district is 51% black and effectively serves as a votesink in North Philly, taking in pretty much all of the black and Hispanic areas and expanding north to pick up Cheltenham and Abingdon in MontCo, which are very heavily D as well. Chaka Fattah would run here.

PA-2 (Green in Metro Philly):

This one would most likely be Bob Brady’s district. It’s 49% black in order to maintain the status quo with the VRA, but at the same time pick up as many black voters as possible (see the arm that goes into Chester). The most Democratic parts of the Main Line also get put in here, such as Lower Merion, Haverford and Radnor (the home of Villanova).

PA-3 (Deep Purple):

It’s always sunny in this district, which was created with one goal in mind: link together all of Philly’s white working class areas, in the hopes (for the GOP) of a demographic avalanche. The MontCo parts of this district lean Democratic, and it’s more than possible for a Democrat to win here, but the GOP has a better chance in the long-term than in any of the present-day suburban districts, all of which seem to be trending away from them. (If this district does elect a Democrat, there will still only be five in the state, which the Republicans would definitely accept.)

PA-4 (Red):

To my knowledge, it’s tradition of some sort to keep all of Bucks County in the same district, which benefits the Republicans as Obama did the worst here out of all the suburban counties (even Chester). All I’ve done is just attach some of the more reflexively GOP rural areas west of Allentown, which is just about all that can be done if you don’t split municipalities.

PA-5 (Mustard Yellow):

This district is what’s left of the current PA-13 after all of the most D parts in southern Montgomery are taken out and very conservative areas in Berks (away from Reading) and Lebanon are added. With the new additions and removal of just about everything south-east of Norristown, it’s tough to imagine the Democrats holding this one.

PA-6 (Teal):

This district was designed with one of two scenarios in mind: if Pat Meehan wins in November, he would run in this new district – if he can win in the current PA-7, adding rural York County would make him safe – and Platts would run in the new PA-12 which contains Harrisburg suburbs that he’s represented before, while if Meehan loses, the somewhat sane Platts can afford to take on a bit of DelCo, which isn’t that Democratic anyway with the removal of Chester and the Main Line. Either way, it’s pretty safe Republican.

PA-7 (Gray):

This is Gerlach’s district, assuming he survives. He’s won before with a district containing Reading, Lower Merion and various other Democratic hotbeds, so he should probably keep overperforming and romp home in a district that contains too much Lancaster for the Dems to realistically compete in. (If Gerlach loses, Pitts can run here if he wants, but he might prefer my new PA-8.)

PA-8 (Indigo):

In order to neutralize the cities of Lancaster and York, which have more minorities and are more Democratic than one might first think, I attached them to some of the most uniformly GOP turf in the state: Franklin and Adams Counties and the rural areas of Cumberland. Considering those areas vote 70%+ for Republican candidates year in and year out, and they comprise about half of the district, I’d call this safe for the GOP.

PA-9 (Light Blue):

This district was created with Charlie Dent in mind, and considering the fact that he has survived in a district that Kerry won and Obama cleaned up in, getting one like this would be a dream for him. He is relieved of Allentown and Bethlehem and instead gets places like Susquehanna and Bradford Counties that are still very Republican. (If Dent loses this year, this district would be doable for the Dems to hold, but it would be a lot tougher than the current PA-15.)

PA-10 (Pink):

Well, northeastern PA has gotten Democratic enough that one safe D votesink is pretty much inevitable in a GOP map, and I made that seat about as safe (and as convoluted) as possible. Allentown, Bethlehem, the most Democratic parts of the Poconos, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre and all of the blue towns in between go into this district, and what comes out is something that vaguely resembles the letter E that Obama might have cleared 60%, if not 65%, in. Since Chris Carney seems to be the Northeast PA Dem most likely to win (I know, I can’t believe it either), I’ll provisionally award the seat to him, but if both him and Kanjorski survive, the two would probably fight over it.

PA-11 (Lime):

I already neutralized Lancaster and York, and I’ll do the same to Reading, which is too Democratic to go in any of the Philly suburban districts in a GOP map. If Holden ran anywhere, it would probably be here, as this district contains most of his Schuylkill base. However, it also contains parts of the Susquehanna Valley that are not in his district and have few Dems outside of Lewisburg (Bucknell) and Selinsgrove (Susquehanna). If Barletta wins, he would have the option of running here (this district contains Columbia County, which is part of the current PA-11, and his home in Hazleton is just a few miles away and can easily be drawn in). Otherwise, it’s up for grabs to whichever local officeholder wants it.

PA-12 (Periwinkle):

The Harrisburg area isn’t that Democratic in the grand scheme of things, and linking it to astonishingly GOP areas to the west (Fulton, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata and Perry are all 60%+ McCain and make up about half of the district) does no favours for the Democrats. Neither does Altoona, which McCain actually won. State College is in this district as well, but it’s too small to make a difference by itself. I guess Holden could run here, but once again he’s facing areas that he’s never represented before. (If Platts doesn’t run here, Shuster will.)

PA-13 (Clay):

Instead of just sitting there in the Northern Tier taking up space, I decided to put the old PA-5 to some good use, having it eat some of Holden’s district and some of the State College area. The swing areas of the Northern Tier (Lock Haven, Elk County) are just too badly outnumbered by the GOP rural areas and wilderness for a Democrat to win this district, with counties like Warren, McKean, Potter and Tioga going pretty heavily for the GOP in just about every election.

PA-14 (Green-Brown):

A rare instance in which my numbering scheme overlaps with the scheme already in place, this district grabs just about every Democrat from the Pittsburgh area that I could get while maintaining equal population. So, basically, just like the current PA-14.

PA-15 (Orange):

This would be Dahlkemper’s district, which starts in Erie and heads on over to heavily Republican Blair County, minus Altoona. The connecting areas, Venango, Clarion and Indiana Counties, also are quite Republican, and are new to Dahlkemper so she would have to introduce herself to her district all over again.

PA-16 (Nuclear Waste Green):

This would be Altmire’s district. As with Dahlkemper, I gave him a whole lot more Republicans who previously weren’t in his district (such as those in Butler County, which is about as red as a flaming brick being eaten by a fire truck).

PA-17 (Navy Blue):

I’m guessing Tim Murphy could run in this district in which McCain won every county fragment. Not much more to say about it, though.

PA-18 (Canary Yellow):

This distrct would probably be Critz’s, although I have given him almost all of GOP Westmoreland County, plus all of even more GOP Somerset and Bedford. (By creating the Western PA districts how I did, I completely broke up the Murthamander.) Shuster would run here if all other options are taken.

So there you have it. A map of a state which Obama won by 10% in which a maximum 14 of 18 representatives are Republicans.