September 2010 – Page 6 – Swing State Project

SSP Daily Digest: 9/23 (Afternoon Edition)

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck is running back to the middle, or at least the far right field instead of completely out of the ballpark, as he faces a close race in the general. He’s backing down on his previous support of Colorado’s “personhood” amendment (granting legal rights to embryos) that’s on Colorado’s ballot again, saying he’s against it despite loudly touting it during his primary bid.

• NV-Sen: Observers are wondering if this is Sharron Angle’s true chickens-for-checkups moment (in a campaign that’s already littered with quotes that contend for that honor). A video from a 2009 tea party rally by a Dem tracker shows Angle taking issue with a recently passed Nevada state law requires insurance carriers to cover “autism.” (And yes, she makes exaggerated air quotes while saying “autism.”) I suppose she thinks it’s nothing a good massage, sauna, and some aromatherapy can’t fix.

• CO-Gov: While John Hickenlooper seems to skate toward the Governor’s Mansion, Dan Maes and Tom Tancredo are descending even more comically into fighting to see who can garner a smaller share of the minority. Maes just called Tancredo “an illegal immigrant” (given Tanc’s fixations, probably the single worst thing he could be called) in the gubernatorial race, seeing as how he “cheated his way in the back door.”

• ID-01: Another day, another endorsement for Walt Minnick from another conservative organization looking to back one token Dem as a badge of bipartisanship. Today, he became the only Dem with the seal of approval from the Citizens Against Government Waste PAC.

• KY-06: Republican challenger Andy Barr, having been on the very wrong end of a couple Democratic polls in the last few weeks (giving Ben Chandler 20 and 14 point leads), comes out with his own internal to demonstrate that he’s not that dead yet. His own poll, from the Tarrance Group, gives Chandler only a 49-42 lead, in the wake of Chandler attack ads tying Barr to his previous boss, disgraced ex-Gov. Ernie Fletcher.

• PA-08: Franklin & Marshall (9/14-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Patrick Murphy (D-inc): 35

Mike Fitzpatrick (R): 49

(MoE: ±4.5%)

It’s unexpected to see Patrick Murphy, in the friendlier confines of the 8th, in worse shape than Kathy Dahlkemper in the 3rd (trailing narrowly in a different F&M poll with the same timeframe). He’s down 46-36 among RVs.

• PA-11: The Realtors® ride to Paul Kanjorski’s rescue yet again! I’m not sure why they have such love for Kanjo in particular among Dems, but today they’re slapping down $243K on his behalf. Recall that they spent over $1.3 million saving his hide in 2008.

• TX-17: Wow, that’s a big lead. Republican pollster OnMessage, on behalf of Bill Flores, gives their client a 55-36 lead over Dem incumbent Chet Edwards, over 9/19-20. I wonder if this’ll motivate Edwards, who notoriously holds his cards close to his vest, to roll out a response (if he has one). The article also notes that AFF is going on the air in the district with a new ad tying Edwards to (gee, guess who) Nancy Pelosi.

• DSCC: Reid Wilson has three new big buys from the DSCC in key states: $335K in Colorado, $235K in Illinois, and $470K in Pennsylvania.

• Redistricting: Here’s an interesting piece from Josh Goodman, for those of you among us who like looking at long lists of population figures. (I know I do.) It suggests that the redistricting axe is going to have to fall hardest on rural areas, which is a positive note for Dems; Census data (based on the 2009 ACS… you’re going to have to wait a few more months for 2010 data!) shows that the almost all of nation’s largest cities have grown (some remarkably so) or at least held steady.

• SSP TV:

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina calls Barbara Boxer “arrogant,” citing her notorious examination of Brig. Gen. Michael Walsh

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo has a target-rich environment for negative ads with Carl Paladino; one hit from his new ad includes Paladino’s job creation record (or lack thereof)

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland belatedly tries out “You want angry? I’ll give you angry!”

• OR-Gov: The SEIU hits Chris Dudley on his proposed income tax cuts for the wealthy

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi does the jujitsu move on Jim Gerlach’s hits on his residency, pointing he was busy, y’know, serving the military overseas during the years in question

• AJS: Americans for Job Securities targets four Dem-held seats with cookie-cutter neg ads: IN-08, OH-18, PA-04, and PA-07.

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks (D) 35%, Robert Bentley (R) 55%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 39%, Nathan Deal (R) 45%, John Monds (L) 5%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 44%, Roy Blunt (R) 52%

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 45%, Rick Berg (R) 48%

Kendrick Meek and More Endorsements, with Al Gore

MIAMI GARDENS, FLA – Kendrick Meek, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, continues to consolidate support from Florida Democrats as he receives the endorsements of Rep. Mark S. Pafford (D-West Palm Beach), Rep. Darren Soto (D-Orlando), and Rep. Scott Randolph (D-Orlando). Statements by Rep. Pafford, Rep. Soto, Rep. Randolph and Kendrick Meek follow:

Rep. Pafford (D-West Palm Beach) said, “Kendrick Meek’s career has always been defined by his commitment to the people of Florida. Like me, he has stood in opposition to big oil and offshore oil drilling to protect Florida’s coastlines. Kendrick also understands the importance of protecting another natural resource: our children. As a father I am grateful that Kendrick fought to restrict class sizes so that our children can excel. I am honored to give Kendrick my support and will continue to fight with him for Florida.”

“Kendrick Meek has a long and reliable record of supporting issues Hispanics care about, including a strong economy, advancing education through smaller class sizes, equality, and fair wages. He was a strong supporter of Justice Sotomayor’s nomination and is against the Arizona style immigration law, issues important to our community. Kendrick Meek has asked for our support and I am honored to stand by him in Central Florida,” said Rep. Soto (D-Orlando).

“Kendrick Meek has been protecting the people of Florida since his days as a Florida State Trooper. He’s not afraid to stand up and speak truth to power. In his opposition to HB 1143, Kendrick stood for all women as a champion of choice. Kendrick is committed to securing justice for every Floridian, not just the ones with big pocketbooks. I am proud to stand by Kendrick and endorse his candidacy for the U.S. Senate,” reported Rep. Randolph (D-Orlando)

“I am honored to have the support of these three outstanding public servants. They have each fought tirelessly for the state of Florida and aren’t afraid to stand their ground on tough issues. These three men work relentlessly to protect the people of Florida because they understand what’s at stake. They are leaders who have strong roots in Florida and in their communities. I value their vision and their insight as principled men of character. Florida is fortunate to have them and I am honored to receive their support,” said Kendrick Meek, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate.

Our campaign has also picked up the support of Al Gore, as he writes.

Florida has had its share of close elections, but this Senate race really ought to be a landslide. And it would be if people just look hard at the facts.

Kendrick Meek is the only one in this race who has consistently opposed offshore drilling. He is the only one who will ensure that we all have quality health care, and the only one who will focus on helping working Americans, rather than wealthy corporations.

Here is the bottom line: We have to help make sure Florida voters have all the facts about Kendrick and his opponents.

We’ve got just 42 days until Election Day, and Kendrick needs your help so he can keep his ads on the air and tell it like it is. His opponents are getting all the help they need – from corporations and special interests. Kendrick relies on you-his grassroots supporters. He needs you to make a donation today so he can raise $75,000 before the critical September 30 end-of-quarter deadline.

Click here to make an immediate donation to Kendrick’s campaign. He needs his grassroots supporters to help him raise $75,000 by the September 30 deadline.

As you know, I’m working hard to raise awareness about the serious threats to our environment. One reason it’s so hard is because the polluters don’t want any protections for the environment that might reduce their profits, so they have managed thus far to kill climate change legislation that would have protected our children and grandchildren.

Unlike his opponents, Kendrick Meek never has been and never will be in the pocket of these special interests. He was against offshore drilling long before the terrible oil spill in the Gulf, and he’s always worked to protect our beaches and wildlife, research and develop energy sources like solar power, and promote a better environment.

With Kendrick in the U.S. Senate, we can rest assured that there’s somebody in Washington looking out for us. But that will happen only when he can raise the funds to stay on the air until Election Day-just 42 days away. You are an integral part of Kendrick’s campaign because he relies on you for support, not oil companies and special interests.

Please make a donation to Kendrick’s campaign today and help him reach his goal of raising $75,000 before the September 30 deadline. If he reaches this goal, I know he’ll be able to win in November.

Once people get the facts, the choice will be clear and Kendrick Meek will be the new United States Senator from Florida. With your help today, we can make sure the facts get out.

Sincerely,

Al Gore

We are also having a Rally for Kendrick Meek with former vice president Al Gore.

THURSDAY, SEPT. 30TH

DOORS OPEN: 4:45PM

TAMPA LETTER CARRIERS HALL

3003 W CYPRESS ST

TAMPA, FL 33609

RESERVED TICKETS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT http://www.kendrickmeek.com/al…

OR CALL 877-354-6335 FOR DISTRIBUTION LOCATIONS

NY-23: Hoffman Will Actively Campaign on the Conservative Line

Ladies and gentlemen, the cat is officially in the dryer:

“Over the past few days I have thought long and hard about the next six weeks,” Hoffman said in a statement released by his campaign.

“I have spoken with family, friends, supporters and staff as I have weighed my next step. So today, with new resolve and a strong commitment to conservative principles, I rededicate myself to this race and announce that I will actively campaign for Congress as the nominee of the Conservative Party.”

“Understand, I do not continue this race out of spite or because of self conceived virtues. I continue in this race because of the failings of my opponents to be truthful with the voters.

“Whether we look a Mr. Owens’ support of Obama-care or Mr. Doheny claim to be pro-life when in fact he supports abortion through the first trimester, we see two candidates who will do or say anything to get a vote elected.”

Of course, Hoffman was going to stay on the ballot regardless (unless, somehow, someone nominated this wild-eyed accountant for a judgeship), but it’s nice to see that he’ll be actively holding Republican Matt Doheny accountable from the right – and helping Democrat Bill Owens tremendously.

WA-Sen: Murray Leads Even According to SurveyUSA

SurveyUSA for KING-TV (9/19-21, likely voters, 8/18-19 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (45)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (52)

Undecided: 3 (3)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Aside from the occasional Rasmussen poll showing a small Dino Rossi lead, most of Rossi’s strength in polling this cycle has come from SurveyUSA (who’ve, rightly or wrongly, become something of our preferred punching-bag among pollsters in the last few months). Well, SurveyUSA still seems to be outlying to the right by a few points, among the latest round of polls (also from Elway, CNN/Time, and Rasmussen), but they’re also moving along with a definite movement in the Democratic direction in this race in the last few weeks, to the extent that even they’re now showing a Patty Murray lead. Check out the movement in visual form (cheating slightly, by dialing the smoothing up to “more sensitive”):

Part of the flip in Murray’s favor may be that SurveyUSA actually got some young people to pick up their phones this time: Murray leads Rossi 54-46 among the 18-34 set. Rossi’s only pocket of strength left is those cynical members of Generation X (he leads 55-41 among the 35-49 demographic). Rossi also leads 54-41 among self-described “Independents” (kind of a silly question, since there’s no party registration in Washington), although he’s down 63-33 among self-described “moderates,” suggesting that “moderates” tend to identify pretty strongly Democratic these days, at least in Washington.

NY-Gov: Did This Race Just Get a Lot Closer All of a Sudden?

Quinnipiac (9/16-20, likely voters, 8/23-29 in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 49 (60)

Carl Paladino (R): 43 (23)

Other: 1 (1)

Undecided: 7 (14)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

The entire political world’s been abuzz about this poll, showing an astounding tightening of this race in under a month, going from Cuomo +37 to Cuomo +6. In that timeframe, Cuomo’s unfavorables spiked, going from 54-21 to 51-34. Still good numbers, but Paladino’s name rec has soared, taking him from 16-13 to a not-exactly-great 36-31. The biggest change of all, though, is structural: Quinnipiac finally switched to a likely voter model, whereas all of its previous polling on this race relied on responses from registered voters.

A potentially major issue with this poll is Quinnipiac’s failure to include Rick Lazio, who when we last checked still had the Conservative Party line. While Lazio hasn’t made up his mind about how vigorously he plans to contest the election, his name will remain on the ballot unless some shenanigoats are pulled on his behalf. (After the Jon Powers debacle last cycle, in which he unsuccessfully tried to have himself taken off the Working Families line by moving out of the state, pretty much the only reliable way off the ballot now is to get nominated for a judgeship – or croak.) Quinnipiac’s reasons for not including Lazio don’t seem compelling, and as Nate Silver suggests, they could have tested with and without him.

One other detail: Q’s poll was in the field for an unusual five days… and I notice their last survey was in the field for seven days. That’s definitely on the long side. But in any event, the real question is, is the race really this close? At least one other pollster seems to think so.

SurveyUSA (9/20-21, likely voters, no trendlines):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 49

Carl Paladino (R): 40

Other: 8

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Of course, it’s SUSA, whose internals have left a lot to be desired this cycle. Once again, 18-34 is the strongest GOP segment, preferring Paladino by a kind of amazing 56-33 margin. But they may yet be right about some things, such as the fact that it’s apparently a close race among independents (41-39 Cuomo) – which Quinnipiac sees as well (Paladino is 49-43 with indies). Thankfully Democrats still dominate the New York electorate, but this is still not where you want to be. And if SUSA’s 44D-35R-20I sample is correct, then we’ve had an amazing comedown from 2008’s 50D-26R-25I distribution.

But another pollster is seeing things very differently – though with two major caveats.

Siena (PDF) (9/16-17 & 9/19-21, registered voters, 8/9-12 in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 57 (56)

Carl Paladino (R): 24 (14)

Rick Lazio (C): 8 (16)

Undecided: 10 (14)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

The analysis here is basically the inverse of what we said regarding the Q poll. As you can see, of course, Siena tested Lazio, and they don’t appear to have done a straight Cuomo-Paladino head-to-head. If the Lazio numbers are at all accurate (and he does stay in the race), then this further butresses the argument that Quinnipiac erred by not including him, since the two right-wingers are clearly sharing the same part of the pie.

But the bigger issue here is that Siena is still clinging to a registered voter model, rather than using a likely voter screen, despite election day being just six weeks away. However, Siena may have offered us a further means for comparison. Here, Paladino narrowed the race by ten points, while Quinnipiac sees him tightening things by thirty. If Siena is right, then the change in Quinnipiac’s model would account for something like a twenty-point shift. That would be more or less double the largest shifts we’ve seen when other pollsters move from RVs to LVs. (Of course, we’re comparing apples and oranges here for a variety of reasons; this would be a lot simpler if we had just one outfit that tested both types of voters.)

So what’s the answer? Has Paladino turned this into a real race? Or is Cuomo still cruising? I think it’s impossible to say without more polling, and I’m sure that the stir these numbers have generated will inspire more companies to go into the field. (And for what it’s worth, Harry Enten claims on Twitter that Marist will have a new poll out on Friday showing better results for Cuomo.)

If you’re in the mood to be depressed, my good buddy Jake (aka the artist formerly known as Trapper John) thinks Cuomo’s in real trouble, and he may well be right. Voters are ticked off and, especially in New York State, truly disgusted at politicians. Cuomo’s spent his whole life acting like an entitled twit, and he’s seemed to view this election as a coronation. Meanwhile, Paladino, revolting meatbucket that he is, is a true outsider with a ton of money and a lot of anger on his side. If this race comes down to barfbag versus d-bag, voters may just wind up holding their noses. And as a New Yorker, I can tell you that the thought of Gov. Paladino chills me to my soul. Let’s just pray Siena is right.

SSP Daily Digest: 9/23 (Morning Edition)

DE-Sen: Interesting – Mike Castle isn’t ruling out a write-in bid. If he does pull the trigger, let’s see if the NRSC and the Senate GOP caucus have the stomach to tell Castle to fuck off. It’d be a great test of their will – and their willingness to embrace Christine O’Donnell.

FL-Sen: Al Gore Alert! In a rare sighting on the campaign trail, Al Gore (still my president!) will headline a rally for Kendrick Meek in Tampa on September 30th. Have we seen Gore do events for any other candidates this cycle?

KY-Sen: Objectively pro-methamphetamine senate candidate Rand Paul keeps running into trouble over his views on drugs. Republican Clay County Sherriff Kevin Johnson endorsed Paul after Paul told him he supported Operation UNITE, a federally-funded anti-drug task force. Paul’s hostility to UNITE, though, is what’s gotten him into hot water in the first place – and amazingly enough, when asked to confirm his pledge to Johnson, Paul’s campaign refused to back it up! I had always hoped/prayed/expected that Rand Paul was such a hardcore libertarian that he’d rigidly – and publicly – cling to beliefs that halfway-competent politicians would be smart enough to elide, deny, or just plain hide. I just figured it would be something like the gold standard, not, you know, meth.

Surprisingly, Paul has smelled the glove belonging to a very different interest group, the neocons. They mistrust Paul’s views on Israel and probably just on the general concept of randomly invading countries and killing people.

AR-Gov: That Ipsos poll which showed Blanche Lincoln “only” 14 points into her political grave also has a gubernatorial component. Dem Gov. Mike Beebe is beating Republican Jim Keet by a 55-37 margin among LVs. You want an enthusiasm gap? Beebe wins 58-30 among RVs. (It was 57-35 among RVs back in July.)

CO-Gov: God, I love the smell of ratfucking in the morning. So, we all know about Scott McInnis’s now-legendary implosion thanks to his plagiarism/theft scandal, but Democrats had a big hand in consigning him to the dustbin of history. It turns out that a group called the Colorado Freedom Fund spent half a million bucks on ads blistering McInnis during the primary, in order to help bolster Dan Maes. The DGA was a big contributor to this effort, chipping in $150K, while unions and wealthy philanthropist Pat Stryker gave the rest. Excellent fucking work, guys.

MN-Gov: The RGA is funneling $428K to a pro-Tom Emmer group, while the DGA sent a quarter mil to an org helping Dem Mark Dayton.

TX-Gov: Rick Perry may not be the suckiest suck who ever sucked, but you’ll have to agree that he is pretty sucky. The Texas Farm Bureau finally agrees, too. Though they’ve always endorsed him in the past (and have always endorsed Republicans for governor), they’re giving up on his sorry ass this year and staying neutral in the race. (They previously endorsed Kay Bailey Hutchison against him in the primary.) It probably didn’t help that a Perry spokesman, in an attempt to bolster his boss’s teabagger/secessionista cred, derided the bureau as “an insurance company that supported the bailout.”

IL-14: We could call this the Hypocrisy State Project and still have tons to write about. The latest chapter in this never-ending saga is penned by Republican Randy Hultgren, who was responsible for marketing his investment firm’s funds. One of the firm’s offerings invested entirely in bailout-backed securities, which were described by one Wall Streeter as “an incredibly free lunch.” This is a two-fer, because this fund was also based in the Cayman Islands, to take advantage of lax tax laws, of course.

MA-10: Massachusetts, at least, is one place where Republicans still need to run away from their own party in order to be electable. So it’s no surprise to see Jeffrey Perry declare that he doesn’t want Sarah Palin showing up in his district. (Don’t worry, bud, I think you’re safe.) Of course, Perry isn’t exactly from the non-crazy wing of the Republican Party (to the extent there still is such a thing), since he has teabagger ties himself.

MI-07: Rossman Group/Team Telcom (9/20, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mark Schauer (D-inc): 38

Tim Walberg (R): 42

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±5.6%)

NY-18: This interview with Jim Russell – remember him from yesterday? the guy whose writings have been favorably cited by the KKK? – is just brutal. He doesn’t disavow anything. So we’ve gotta ask: Why isn’t the press giving this guy the Alvin Greene treatment? After all, Greene’s weirdest idea was to sell bobblehead dolls. Russell thinks there are too many Jews. Anyhow, the Westchester GOP is trying to get Russell off the ballot through legal means, and they say if they can’t, they’ll run a write-in candidate.

NY-19: A judge ruled against a group trying to knock Nan Hayworth off the Independence Party line for a lack of valid signatures. Hayworth gets to keep the line, while incumbent John Hall has the Working Families line.

NY-23: With the vote count all but completed, it looks like Matt Doheny is (still) the winner of the Republican primary, but Doug Hoffman ain’t conceding yet. I guess he feels burned after what happened in the special election, where he tried to “un-concede” after some counting errors emerged (but still lost anyway). The vote count does not officially get certified until the 27th, but Doheny could declare victory (and/or Hoffman could concede) before then. Hoffman still hasn’t said anything about how vigorously (if at all) he plans to wage war from the Conservative Party line.

PA-10: Another day, another NRA endorsement for a Dem. Chris Carney is the latest in a string of mostly-conservative Democrats to rack up the group’s support, even though they labeled him a “true enemy” of guns just four years ago.

TN-09: Heh – the Memphis Flyer commissioned a poll by Yacoubian Research, which found Steve Cohen leading Charlotte Bergmann 66-23. There were only 205 respondents, and note that we previously flagged a Yacoubian poll of the primary for attempting to screen voters by asking them if they lived in the 9th CD – how many people actually know what district they live in, by number? But whatever, Steve Cohen ain’t losing.

VA-09: Rick Boucher successfully got an ad by Americans for Job Security pulled off the air for making a misleading statements. The ad said “Rick Boucher supports Nancy Pelosi 96 percent of the time,” but this claim was based on the Washington Post’s “party voting” score, which Boucher rightly argued does not measure “support for Pelosi.” (A good time to remind folks that it’s much, much easier to get third-party ads yanked because stations are liable for defamation when they run these ads. Media outlets are immune from liability for candidate ads.)

SSP TV (by James L.):

LA-Sen: “Diaper” David Vitter hits Charlie Melancon for attending a fundraiser in Canada, of all places.
AR-01: Chad Causey’s latest spot takes a shotgun approach to messaging, touting his heritage, his support for a balanced budget amendment and a paycut for Congress, while hitting Republican Rick Crawford over the bad kind of SSP and for his support of a 23% national sales tax
FL-22: Allen West takes on Ron Klein over a Florida Democratic Party mailer that boneheadedly revealed West’s Social Security number
GA-08: Dem Rep. Jim Marshall goes heavy negative on GOP state Rep. Austin Scott on immigration – not once, but twice
MI-07: GOP douche Tim Walberg says that Dem Rep. Mark Schauer is spending America into ruin, and also makes the dubious claim that he “strongly supports” Social Security. The ad, a coordinated expenditure partially paid for by the RNC, is airing in the Lansing media market and cost $85,000.
MI-15: John Dingell goes negative on Republican Rob Steele over his support from the wretched hive of scum and villainy that is Wall Street, while Steele has gone up with an ad of his own touting his record as a physician and poking Dingell over spending
NC-02: Dem Rep. Bob Etheridge’s latest ad features the testimonials of locals who say that Etheridge saved their jobs
OH-12: Dem Paula Brooks touts her record on the Franklin County Commission while spilling marbles all over her kitchen island
OR-05: GOPer Scott Bruun will stop the spending… except when it comes to restoring Medicare cuts, apparently
SC-02: Libruhl Rob Miller and libruhl Nancy Pelosi will liberally kill all your jobs; meanwhile, Joe Wilson still sounds like he uses a speech synthesizer instead of a functional set of vocal cords. Seriously, what a creepy-sounding asshole.
VA-09: Republican Morgan Griffith plays a clip of Barack Obama saying “I love Rick Boucher” – four times in thirty seconds

39 Steps Update, Six Weeks Out

This is a post-primary version of a diary that I wrote almost 2 months ago, that detailed the most likely route Republicans would have to take to reclaim the House–in other words, if the GOP were to win the chamber by one seat, which districts would they have to flip? A lot has changed since late July–more forecasters are calling a takeover “likely,” but many Democratic incumbents have put out polling showing that they are in better shape than some had thought. In addition, some races that weren’t on many people’s radars are now hotly contested. So, six weeks before the election, here’s a suggested path to 39.

1. Tennessee’s 6th (Middle TN)–Rep. Diane Black. She’d best get used to the title, it could be hers for a long time. (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. New York’s 29th (South Tier)–Likewise, Corning Mayor Tom Reed can start thinking about how he wants to decorate his office, although he’ll be potentially vulnerable after redistricting. (PR: 4)

3. Louisiana’s 3rd (South)–The October 2nd runoff is the last primary race of interest, and the late date is annoying for likely winner Jeff Landry. But not too annoying. (PR: 2)

4. Arkansas’ 2nd (Central)–Smooth sailing for Tim Griffin. Arkansas looks like trouble for Democrats, both now and over the next decade. (PR: 3)

5. Kansas’s 3rd (KCK)–Stephene Moore is doing little to suggest that she’s going to hold this seat, and Democrats may have a better chance at breaking through in KS-04 (more on that matchup later) than hanging on here. Kevin Yoder is a good match for this area. (PR: 7)

6. Ohio’s 1st (Cincinnati)–The Buckeye State looks like it’s going to be fertile ground for Republicans this fall. Call me crazy, but the gubernatorial and Senate races could both end up 58/42 if Democrats don’t do something to get their voters to the polls. But either way, Driehaus is in a deep hole and is probably looking to 2012 and a chance for revenge with Obama coattails. (PR: 11)

7. Indiana’s 8th (Southwest)–The famed Bloody 8th never stays with one party for too long, and although Brad Ellsworth had a strong hold on this district, it looks like it’s ripe to change hands again. Larry Bucshon would, I believe, be the only member of the House Cardiovascular Surgeon Caucus, if he defeats Trent Van Haaften. (PR: 8)

8. Virginia’ 5th (Southside)–Even this loyal Republican will admit that Tom Perriello is everything a Congressman should be: hardworking, principled, and honest. And if he lived one district south, in NC-13, he’d be assured of a long career. But this district is just too conservative for a progressive Democrat to hold this year, and all polling has Rob Hurt in the lead. (PR: 9)

9. Virginia’s 2nd (VA Beach)–Glenn Nye represents a district politically and demographically similar to Perriello’s, but is a more conservative Democrat. On the other hand, he has a much better challenger in Scott Rigell, who grabbed the lead here a while ago and has shown no signs of fading. (PR: 13)

10. Ohio’s 15th (Columbus)–Mary Jo Kilroy has been in trouble since the day she took office after a squeaker of a victory, and Steve Stivers has been running for almost 4 years now. In a neutral year, Stivers would probably be a slight underdog, but the environment and upticket races make him the favorite. Look for the Ohio GOP to pull its hair out over trying to protect him in redistricting. (PR: 14)

11. Maryland’s 1st (Eastern Shore)–Frank Kratovil’s internals show that he’s not out of this, but Andy Harris’ strong primary victory over credible opposition suggests that the GOP is more united this time. The 1st is 22 points more Republican than Maryland, meaning Ehrlich will romp here and Mikulski will lose if she’s held under 70 statewide. (PR: 6)

12. Mississippi’s 1st (North)–This race hasn’t really changed much. Travis Childers and Alan Nunnelee have recently each posted leads in internals. While not a particularly representative area of the rest of the country, it’s a great night for Democrats if they hold this one. (PR: 10)

13. North Dakota–The DCCC pulled out, which is as strong an indicator as any that Rick Berg is ahead of Earl Pomeroy here. This remains below the other seats because Pomeroy has survived tough cycles before and there’s time for him to pull an electoral rabbit out of the hat. Remember, 70% of people who vote in this election will do so just after voting for John Hoeven. (PR: 13)

14. New Hampshire’s 2nd (West)–A bit of a downgrade here, as Charlie Bass underwhelmed in his primary while Annie Kuster posted a strong showing. Nonetheless, Bass has led in every public poll, and Kuster’s fate probably hinges on late magic from Paul Hodes in the Senate race. (PR: 5)

15. Pennsylvania’s 7th (Western Philly Suburbs)–Pennsylvania may not be the bloodbath Ohio is, but the GOP looks poised to win several statewide races and House seats. Senate nominee Joe Sestak’s open seat remains the best opportunity, but…..

16. Pennsylvania’s 11th (East Central)–Not by much, as the 11th looks likely to flip as well. Paul Kanjorski can thank President Obama for extending his stay in Congress by 2 years, but it’s hard to see how he does it on his own this year. Lou Barletta may finally win despite himself. (PR: 17, 20)

17. Colorado’s 4th (East)–Steady as she goes for Cory Gardner, who continues to impress in his campaign to unseat Betsy Markey. (PR: 21)

18. Arkansas’ 1st (East)–This race, like the whole state, has really slipped away from Democrats recently. Chad Causey’s most recent internal has him up 2, but he’s trailed in all other polling and Rick Crawford has proven to be a worthy opponent, which may be all he needs this year. (PR: NR)

19. Illinois’ 11th (Exurban Chicago)–Likewise, things have gotten out of hand for Debbie Halvorson since late July. She appears to be trailing Iraq vet Adam Kinzinger in a district Brady and Kirk will both win on Election Day, and her campaign has not exactly caught fire like it did in 2008. (PR: 41)

20. Illinois’ 14th (North Central)–The race in the neighboring 11th has gotten much more of the attention, but this contest is strikingly similar. Super-freshman Bill Foster has never run in anything but a good environment for Democrats, has never had to deal with upticket problems, and has never faced an opponent as strong as Randy Hultgren. (PR: 19)

And, if Democrats can hold their losses right there, it will be cause for celebration from Martha’s Vineyard to San Francisco. But let’s keep going……

21. Washington’s 3rd (Southwest)–Jaime Herrera surprised many with her strong performance in the top two primary, and now must be considered a slight favorite to win this open seat. Denny Heck is a strong nominee as well and will keep this interesting. Polling has Herrera up but the race tightening. (PR: 36)

22. Michigan’s 1st (North and UP)–This race moves up slightly because the governor’s race looks safer for the GOP than it did last time. The Democrats have a strong nominee, but the Republicans did the right thing in nominating Dan Benishek, who is both a Yooper and an outsider. These are the kinds of open seats you can’t really lose if you want to take the House. (PR: 24)

23. Wisconsin’s 7th (Northwest)–Sean Duffy is a candidate who has over-performed to this point, as many considered this district safe for Democrats even without Dave Obey. But the former reality star has run a great show to this point, and the DCCC seems worried about Julie Lassa’s ability to keep up with him, hammering him with attacks that may or may not stick. (PR: NR)

24. Florida’s 24th (Space Coast)–Suzanne Kosmas has not done much to endear herself here, and changing her vote on HCR may be a fatal mistake. GOP nominee Sandy Adams is neither the strongest nor the weakest challenger I’ve ever seen, but she looks capable of getting to 50%+1. Democrats are hoping that Adams’ views will come off as “extreme,” but in the age of O’Donnell they’ll have to do a lot better than attacking her on the 17th Amendment. (PR: 25)

25. Ohio’s 16th (South of Cleveland)–Nothing has changed about this race since my last installment, but Ohio as a whole has become more hostile to Democrats, and Jim Renacci remains a very difficult opponent for freshman John Boccieri, whose path to victory is narrowing. (PR: 28)

26. Florida’s 2nd (Tallahassee)–Allen Boyd barely survived his primary and faces a fairly generic Republican in Steve Southerland. This one comes down to the Dixiecrats: do they stick with the Blue Dog, who flipped his vote on HCR, or do they go with the outsider, who’s looking to join Charlie Wilson in the House Mortician Caucus? Crist could save Boyd here. (PR: NR)

27. Tennessee’s 8th (West)–GOP nominee Steven Fincher won his primary convincingly and now faces a strong Democrat in Roy Herron. That this race has moved down has less to do with any developments here as it does to do with positive movement for the GOP in other districts. If Fincher wins, it will represent the end of an era in West Tennessee politics. (PR: 23)

28. New York’s 19th (Hudson Valley)–Dr. Nan Hayworth has been running a solid campaign under the radar for a while now, and the first poll of this race shows her slightly ahead of John Hall. Plenty of time for Hall to turn it around, but Hayworth’s cash advantage is not going to make things easy for him. Joe DioGuardi, who is doing surprising well in his longshot Senate race, is from this area. (PR: 32)

29. New York’s 24th (Central Upstate)–Mike Arcuri, who barely held on two years ago, apparently realized the importance of campaigning hard and early this time around, as he’s led in the last two polls of this race. But Richard Hanna still has room to define himself, especially in the rural areas of the district, and can use Arcuri’s HCR waffle to his advantage. (PR: 16)

30. New Hampshire’s 1st (East)–Carol Shea-Porter is still her quirky self, but she now knows her opponent: Frank Guinta, the former mayor of Manchester. That’s good news for her, as Guinta has less money and more baggage than some of his primary opponents. But he also carries a strong home base into the general, and the Granite State may be growing tired of CSP’s antics. (PR: 22)

Since the last installment, the playing field has changed to the point where anything under 30 seats picked up will be a disappointment for Republicans. The following 13 seats separate an “adequate” night from a very good one.

31. Florida’s 8th (Orlando)–I don’t know what to make of this race. Alan Grayson is essentially a louder form of Jerrold Nadler transported from Manhattan to a slightly Republican area of Central Florida. But he’s also a machine of a fundraiser and touts a poll that seems almost too good to be true. Daniel Webster emerged rather decisively from a crowded primary and has a long history in the district (good news for him), but has little money and has a Tea Party candidate to deal with (bad news.) In the end, this will be a battle of The Bold and The Bland, and the district could go either way in the upticket races. (PR: 15)

32. Pennsylvania’s 8th (Berks County)–Laddies and lassies, we’ve got a fine O’Tossup on our hands. Mister Murphy and Mister Fitzpatrick both be claimin’ they’re ahead, and they’ve each run some fine ads on the telly. I tell ye, it may come down to how well Mister Toomey does here. Pour yerself a pint o’ Guinness, political junkies–this one’s going to be fearful close! (PR: 38)

**Apologies to my fellow Irish SSP readers for this stereotyping of our ethnic community**

33. South Carolina’s 5th (Midlands)–John Spratt is more of an institution than an elected official in this area, but he seems to have lost a step on the campaign trail, and being Budget Chairman in 2010 is not going to help him. Mick Mulvaney seems to know what he’s doing here, and this once-unthinkable upset is looking more and more possible. (PR: 35)

34. Pennsylvania’s 3rd (Northwest)–The fundamentals of this race remain the same. Kathy Dahlkemper is vulnerable, and Mike Kelly is non-controversial enough to win. Whether those facts will translate into votes for Kelly on Election Day is unknown, so for now this one stays right where it was. It’s amazing how much better Democrats would be doing if everyone had taken a position on HCR and stuck by it. (PR: 34)

35. Michigan’s 7th (South)–The GOP bungled the primary and nominated retread Tim Walberg, giving second life to freshman Mark Schauer. But Schauer only defeated Walberg by 2 points last time, and this is a bad year for Democrats in Michigan, so he’s not out of the woods yet. It should be noted that the Green Party isn’t running a candidate this year; the Green took 3% in ’08. (PR: 29)

36. New Mexico’s 2nd (South)–Few incumbents appeared as endangered as Harry Teague over the summer, but then again, few incumbents have seen as many good polls over the past month as Teague. In retrospect, the GOP could have done better than Steve Pearce here, but Teague’s vote for cap-and-trade may yet do him in. This should be a good fight. (PR: 12)

37. Arizona’s 5th (Scottsdale)–Harry Mitchell faces off against David Schweikert again after decisively winning Round 1. A Republican pollster has Mitchell down 7, which probably means this race is a tossup, which means this is a good place for it. (PR: 30)

38. Wisconsin’s 8th (Northeast)–This was the majority-maker last time, but GOP fortunes in Wisconsin have improved greatly since then. Ron Johnson should win this district even if he loses to Feingold, and Reid Ribble looks like a solid challenger to sophomore Steve Kagan, who seems like a pretty generic, party-line type. (PR: 43)

39. Nevada’s 3rd (Las Vegas suburbs)–Dina Titus is another incumbent who has posted leads in independent polling since last time around, and Harry Reid has also improved his standing. This remains a winnable race for Joe Heck, but he’s going to have to contend with what looks to be a strong Democratic GOTV operation in this area. Both sides really need this one, and it’ll be a fight to the end. (PR: 26)

There’s your 39th pickup, but of course, even the most ardent Republicans are conceding that Democrats will pick up a few seats of their own, and some Democrats think they could take as many as 10 Republican seats this cycle. For now, I’m going to limit Democratic pickups to:

Delaware, which can say hello to Rep. John Carney (order the business card!)

Hawaii’s 1st, which even Colleen Hanabusa (the Dino Rossi of the South Pacific) should manage to win

Louisiana’s 2nd, where I think Joe Cao will lose, but by less than expected

Illinois’ 10th, which is far from a done deal, but where Dan Seals is the better match for the district

That’s four right there, with several others also in play. However, if the Republicans are going to win the House, they have to hold all of those, so let’s only add four more pickups to their side.

40. Indiana’s 9th (South)–Baron Hill has drawn a cocky, young, and surprisingly not-Mike-Sodrel challenger in Todd Young, who has led in the only released poll of the race (an internal) but doesn’t seem to fit with the district for some reason. However, Hill touted a tie in the generic ballot as good news for his campaign in a recent letter to supporters, which shouldn’t instill confidence in anyone. (PR: NR)

41. West Virginia’s 1st (North)–Steady polling leads for Mike Oliverio here, but we haven’t seen a poll of this one since the Raese surge in the Senate race, and I’ll bet it’s a much closer race now. This is the most Republican district in West Virginia, so if Raese runs close to Manchin, you can expect him to win here and drag David McKinley across the finish line. Also, there have been rumors that Oliverio would change parties if elected, perhaps even before he’s sworn in, so that would count as a pickup as well. (PR: 37)

42. Alabama’s 2nd (Southeast)– Yes, Bobby Bright has become popular here and aside from voting for Pelosi has given his constituents no reason to fire him. Yes, this is 2010 in Alabama, Bright barely won last time, and the GOP nominee is credible. I’ve heard both sides of the argument several times, and since anything to do with this race incites passion, I’ll be noncontroversial and won’t move it. (PR: 42)

And, the district that swings the nation is…..

43. Texas’ 17th (Central)–The majority-making seat was a tough call, but it’s become harder and harder to see how Chet Edwards survives if the GOP does indeed take the House this fall. Bill Flores has proven to be the strongest opponent Edwards has ever faced, and the incumbent looks vulnerable in his ads, where he’s having a hard time landing punches on his challenger. This was the one seat that the DeLay-mander did not deliver for Republicans, and Flores seems like the right guy to both win this seat and cast the 218th vote on January 3rd. (PR: NR)

Majority Padders (Democratic seats that would not be among the first 43 to flip, but are endangered nonetheless): MA-10, CT-05, NY-01, NY-23, PA-10, PA-12, NJ-03, VA-11, NC-08, GA-02, GA-08, FL-22, TN-04, OH-13, OH-18, MI-09, IL-17, IA-03, IN-02, SD-AL, MO-04, TX-23, NM-01, CO-03, AZ-01, WA-02, OR-05, CA-11

Other Democratic Targets: CA-03, CA-45, KS-04, FL-12, FL-25, MN-06, PA-06, PA-15

If you think Democrats will pick up 6 seats instead of 4–which is not a stretch at all–add AZ-01 and NC-08 as the 44th and 45th pickups. Go ahead and draw the cutoff line wherever you like, and feel free to argue that races should be moved up, down, off of, or onto the list!

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CO, DE, WI: New CNN/Time Polls

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/17-21, likely voters, no trend lines):

CO-Sen:

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44

Ken Buck (R): 49

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Among registered voters, Bennet has a 47-44 lead.

CO-Gov:

John Hickenlooper (D): 47

Dan Maes (R): 21

Tom Tancredo (ACP): 29

Undecided: 1

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Interestingly, a registered voter sample doesn’t boost Hickenlooper’s score much at all; he scores 48% to Tancredo’s 26% under that sample. If only he’d be able to rub off some of his magic on Bennet…

DE-Sen:

Chris Coons (D): 55

Christine O’Donnell (R): 39

Undecided: 2

Chris Coons (D): 37

Mike Castle (R): 55

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Amusingly, CNN/TIME decided to rub some salt into the wounds of the NRSC, finding that Castle would’ve been dominating right now if only he hadn’t been teabagged to death by the brain-dead GOP base. Where Castle dominated among independents and stole 33% of Democrats, O’Donnell loses indies by 7% and only takes 6% of Democrats (while losing 15% of Republicans to Coons). As for the RV numbers, Coons’ lead expands to 59-34 without the likely voter screen.

WI-Sen:

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 45

Ron Johnson (R): 51

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3%)

The enthusiasm gap is, unsurprisingly, rough here: among registered voters, Feingold leads by 48-46.

WI-Gov:

Tom Barrett (D): 42

Scott Walker (R): 53

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3%)

Barrett even trails among registered voters, though by a slimmer 48-45 margin.

KY-03: Yarmuth Leads by 23 Points

Braun Research for cn|2 (9/20-21, likely voters, 8/9-8/10 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 53 (52)

Todd Lally (R): 30 (29)

Michael Hansen (I): 5 (1)

Ed Martin (L): 1 (-)

Undecided: 12 (17)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Good stuff for sophomore Dem Rep. John Yarmuth here – certainly a much better outlook than that SurveyUSA poll projected earlier this month (which claimed that Yarmuth only had a 2% edge).

Bonus finding: Jack Conway leads Rand Paul by 51-39 in the 3rd District. This is one district where Conway will need to find a way to run up the score (Bruce Lunsford won Jefferson County by over 11% against Mitch McConnell in 2008).

PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Consistent GOP Leads

Quinnipiac (9/15-19, likely voters, 7/6-11 (using RVs) in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 43 (43)

Pat Toomey (R): 50 (43)

Undecided: 7 (12)

(MoE: 3.8%)

Quinnipiac (9/15-19, likely voters, 7/6-11 (using RVs) in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 39 (37)

Tom Corbett (R): 54 (44)

Undecided: 7 (18)

(MoE: 3.8%)

Say what you will about the Pennsylvania Senate race; it’s consistent if nothing else. Quinnipiac’s 7-point Pat Toomey edge is disappointing considering that their last look was tied, but that was using their registered voter model, and that’s actually a less drastic RV/LV shift than we’ve seen in a few other states (like Ohio) from them. And the 7-point Qpac lead is consistent with just about everyone else, who tend to see this race in the 6-to-8 point range for Toomey. (There’s a similar 7-point shift in the Governor’s race, which was already pretty solidly in Tom Corbett’s hands.)

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/17-21, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 44

Pat Toomey (R): 49

Undecided: 3

Dan Onorato (D): 44

Tom Corbett (R): 52

Undecided: 2

(MoE: 3.5%)

There’s also been a truckload of other pollsters releasing Keystone State results, perhaps most notably today from CNN/Time. These are LV numbers; as with last week’s wave, they also offer RVs, and they show that a similar-sized enthusiasm gap as the Quinnipiac polls (among RVs, the Sestak/Toomey race is tied 45-45, while Corbett leads 50-45 in the governor’s race — considering those are similar to Quinnipiac’s July RV numbers, this is a verrrry static race).

Critical Insights for the Times-Leader (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 36

Pat Toomey (R): 40

Undecided: 24

Dan Onorato (D): 37

Tom Corbett (R): 38

Undecided: 25

(MoE: 4%)

MuniciPoll for PoliticsPA (9/15-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 36

Pat Toomey (R): 45

Undecided: 19

(MoE: 3.2%)

Finally, two other polls from first-time pollsters round out the pile, with MuniciPoll giving a slightly more pessimistic look and Critical Insights giving probably the best-looking numbers we’ve seen in either race in a while, including a probably-too-good-to-be true 1-point lead for Tom Corbett in the gubernatorial race.

Any wonder what’s behind the GOP dominance here? Well, aside from the obvious stuff about the nature of the year, Pennsylvania’s swing state status and clockwork 8-year gubernatorial flips, and so on, there’s also the money story. In the Senate race, it’s been all Toomey so far, with 72% of the ads running in the state’s two biggest markets (Philadelphia and Pittsburgh) being GOP spots so far. Sestak’s only starting to engage the Philly market this week, so we’ll see if his powder-saving/late-salvo strategy is anywhere near as effective in the general as it was in the primary. And in the somewhat-sleepier and less ad-saturated gubernatorial race, Tom Corbett is winning the money battle, holding $7.7 CoH in his report last week compared with $3.4 million for Dan Onorato.