Month: October 2010

(Mostly updated for now but im heading to bed and will update the rest tomorrow, leave comments! 🙂

Senate:

Barbara Boxer faces off against Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO. Already Boxer pulls out the Karl Rove playbook by using Fiorina’s business experience against her. Boxer is a very tough, hard and negative campaigner (perhaps a certain Massachusetts candidate should contact her..) and that hurts Fiorina. I think Boxer will win, more than Brown will against Whitman which is surprising since Boxer is very passionately liberal and Brown is not, but Fiorina is way too conservative for this state. Part of me wants to peg this at Likely D, but i’ll go with reality this time.

Current Status: Leans Democratic

Governor:

This race is HUGE. Not because Meg Whitman made it so with her yacht-loads of $$$, but because of the implications (Redistricting, passing a budget on time, etc) that come with it. Brown is very much a populist and isn’t afraid to ruffle feathers, and comes off as very human and likable. Can’t say the same about Whitman. Even if Housekeeper-gate (love that phrase!) goes away in the voters mind, Brown has an edge due to a large Democratic voter registration, more energized base than in other parts of the country and the overall D lean of this state. Whitman will lose, but by how much remains a battle of inches.

Current Status: Leans Democratic



Lieutenant Governor:

Not so huge as the Gov race, but will tell us if we have an all Dem statewide sweep or will it end here. Appointed LG Abel Maldonaldo faces off against San Fran Mayor Gavin Newsom. Honestly, i don’t like either. Maldo, for instance pulled an eMeg and voted against the original AB 32, the landmark climate change bill but now says Prop 23 is wrong. Newsom comes across as arrogant and at first laughed at the prospect of running for this job, and known infamously for his “Whether you like it or not (gay marriage)” comment. I think this race will end up like the last LG race, between now Congressman Garamendi and now Congressman McClintock, by single digits. I expect Newsom to win narrowly, with the Bay Area dragging him across the finish line.

Current Status: Tossup

Attorney General:

This race is really tough for me (and judging by the California posters here on SSP, hard for them as well).  Between L.A DA Steve Cooley and San Fran DA Kamala Harris, there’s a stark contrast between them. Cooley supports the death penalty and Harris as D.A opposed using it against a cop-killer, that’s a big no-no if your going to be running for Attorney General. Alot of San Fran dems i’ve heard will vote for Cooley and that is really bad news. I think this race will be fought till the last vote is counted, stay up all night folks: this one is going down to the wire. I can’t even say who will be dragged across the finish line for now.

Current Status: Tossup

Secretary of State:

Debra Bowen faces off against a dude who hasn’t voted in forever (seeing shades of Whitman anyone?), named Damon Dunn. Is this even worth mentioning?

Current Status: Safe Democratic

Insurance Commissioner:

State Assemblymembers Dave Jones, the Democrat from Sacramento and Mike Villines of Clovis (Fresno County) face off. Villines is the former GOP leader in the Assembly who got the Mike Castle treatment after voting for the budget which contains some taxes. I think Jones is clearly favored, but Villines’ strength in the Central Valley will help narrow the margin quite a bit. Incumbent Steve Poizner ran against eMeg and got whopped badly so he’s not in this year.

Current Status: Likely Democratic

Controller:

Incumbent John Chiang faces off against 06′ opponent State Sen. Tony Strickland of Ventura County.

Current Status: Safe Democratic

Treasurer:

Incumbent Bill Lockyer faces off against OC State Sen. Mimi Walters.

Current Status: Safe Democratic

Superintendent of Public Instruction:

Officially it’s a non-partisan post. But the two opponents are State Assemblyman Tom Torlakson, the teacher’s union favorite against retired school Superintendent Larry Aceves, who’s in the middle of the war between charter and public schools. He surprised everyone by making second place, when State Sen Gloria Romero was considered the favorite and a charter school proponent. I like Aceves as he is a former Superintendent, but i think ultimately the voters will side with Torlakson for whatever reason.

Current Status: Leans Torlakson

The Propositions:

Prop 19 — Legalize and tax cannabis. Very contentious issue that has split the State Dem party into two factions both of whom support the measure but have differencing views on how to show support. I say it passes by a small margin.

Prop 20 — Expanding the Current citizens redistricting panel to include U.S House races as well. I oppose this, as we need more Democrats in California to make up for the bazillion seats we lose in November, but with an angry electorate you never know the result. I say it passes by a razor thin margin, much like Prop 13 in 2008.

Prop 21 — Funding State parks. Even though there really isnt an organized org against this, a ton of prominent newspapers have came out against it, like the Los Angeles Times which is very Dem-leaning in their endorsements. I fear a lot of people will buy the “oh noez its teh taxes!!1” B.S, but i still believe it passes by a good sized margin.

Prop 22 — Preventing state gov. from taking local funds from the local governments. Dunno about this one, but i think it passes by anywhere from 6-10 points.

Prop 23 — This must go down big. A stupid ploy by the oil companies/Koch bros./climate change deniers to suspend AB32 until the unemployment reaches 5.5%, a really impossible feat. I say it FAILS by 6-8%.

Prop 24 — Another MUST pass. This will repeal corporate tax breaks that the legislature passed during last year’s budget mayhem. I say it passes (even though i have lost faith in this system) by a 10 point margin.

Prop 25 —  Majority vote to pass a fees or taxes. This is I say it passes by a 5-6 point margin.

Prop 26 — Takes a supermajority to raise fees/taxes. NO. We’ve seen this gridlock happen to the budget, why do we need more? It fails by a 4-5 point margin.

Prop 27 — This one is easy. Why give the legislature control of their own districts’ shape? The arguments for this Prop are extremely pathetic, and voters will see through them. I say it fails by at least 5 points or more.

Interesting Races to Note:

CA-03/AD-05:

I put these two races in the same place because they are very similar in shape and very competitive. Democrat Ami Bera is facing off against Dan Lungren in the third district, while Democrat Richard Pan faces off against “Businessman” Andy Pugno. Bera is making this race more competitive than it should for one reason: $$$. Bera has constantly out-raised the GOP incumbent and national Dems quickly got on board with the campaign. But will it be enough for him in a GOP year?

Meanwhile over in AD-05, Richard Pan can take solace over the fact that registration has dipped amongst the GOP, and Andy Pugno is no “Businessman”, more like the lawyer for Prop 8, which Pan is using against him. Pugno has outraised Pan by a small amount, and the good news for us is this is an open seat, which makes it more likely to take. This poll from the Pan campaign shows it to be a tossup but the Pugno campaign released(no actual direct link to the pollster) their poll showing Pugno ahead by 18 points, with the third party candidate netting 10%.

Current AD-05 Status: Tossup

Current CA-03 Status: Tossup

AD-10:

Here’s a race that should be on everyone’s radar. Incumbent Alyson Huber (D) faces off against her 08′ opponent Jack Sieglock. This district has 40% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 16.85% Decline to State. Obama narrowly won here, and Huber did by a razor thin 474 votes. Will the Central Valley see Huber lose? Or will her incumbency play a positive factor? On election night, if Huber loses by a lot, the Central Valley is going to be a bloodbath. Includes a part of Jerry McNerney’s CA-11 (Lodi and part of Stockton).

Current Status: Tossup

AD-15:

Includes most of Jerry McNerney’s district, and another top race in a state with very few competitive races. Incumbent Joan Buchanan also faces her 08′ opponent, San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson. Buchanan ran for Congress last year but lost to John Garamendi, so she’s back here for re-election. 40.65% are Democrats, 36.65% are Republicans and about 20% are Decline to State, giving Buchanan a bit more comfort than her neighbor in the north has. If Buchanan loses, then McNerney will also likely fall as this district mostly has the same communities and both face top-tier opponents. I think Buchanan wins, as her East Bay district is trending more Democratic and the coat-tails provided by all three Bay Area candidates should help her.

Current Status: Leans Democratic

CA-11:

Here’s the most competitive race in California, in my opinion. Jerry McNerney is facing a tough challenge from Attorney David Harmer, who ran for congress in a neighboring district last year and got a respectable 45%. McNerney is going to feel the pain of running in 2010, as his last two re-elections were all in very Democratic years. Harmer has raised a ton, but McNerney is also catching up. McNerney touts his support for Veterans, clean energy and even the Stimulus. I expect this race to be close, but this one is definitely on my “bellwether” list.

Current Status: Tossup

AD-30:

Here’s a race where we’ll know for sure how politically bad it is in the Central Valley. Incumbent Danny Gilmore (R) is leaving after only one term, and the race is between Democrat Fran Florez, a fixture in Kern County politics versus David Valadao, a local farmer. This district has gotten an ugly reputation for dirty politics, as Florez ran here in 2008 but lost to Gilmore and some say he was helped by the endorsement of former AD-30 Assemblywoman Nicole Parra (D, now an Independent). There’s been a long feud against the Parra and Florez families, and Florez had to face Pete Parra, Nicole’s father, in the primary but easily won. Valadao’s website touts support from both Gilmore and Parra, most likely as a result of the two families feud. Even though Democrats make up 46% of the district, many are conservative and the issue of water will be huge.

Current Status: Tossup

This is the second in what will be hopefully be a weekly segment, wherein I attempt to read the tea leaves of the independent expenditures made by the NRCC and the DCCC.  The battle lines have become much clearer this week, with both parties significantly expanding their targeted seats.  As a result, I have been able to come to more resolute opinions about what the behaviors of the party committees mean.  My opinions are probably ham handed and wrong, but I feel more resolute about them.  Without further ado:

Battlegrounds – Both parties engaged (36)

AL-02 – Dueling internals.  Still think Bright is slightly ahead.

AR-01 – Confident that Causey has made a race of this.  He may even be ahead now.

AZ-01 – Cook moved this to Lean R.  Republican polls show modest Gosar leads.

AZ-05 – Dueling internals, all very close.  Should be one of the closer races.

CA-11 – Very little reliable polling here.  Harmer is a good candidate.  Sleeper race.

CO-03 – Salazar destroyed Tipton just a few cycles ago.  Good chance he will win again.

FL-02 – Boyd awfully quiet in spite of two Southerland internals with double digit leads.

GA-08 – Dueling internals with big margins.  Somebody’s way off.  I think Marshall is ahead.

IL-14 – Unrebutted Republican polling suggests to me that Hultgren leads.

IL-17 – A good campaign should win this one for Hare.  A lot of unmotivated Dems here.

IN-02 – Polls reassuring for Donnelly.  Walorski does not seem like the best candidate.

IN-09 – Slightly dusty Republican poll showed a dead heat.  Seems like a true toss-up.

KY-06 – Race clearly tightening but Chandler seems to be ahead.

MA-10 – Don’t know how Perry survives the strip search scandal with the general electorate.

MD-01 – Kratovil hanging in there.  Could be the surprise of election night.

MI-01 – Dems investing a lot of money here.  They must see something worth pursuing.  

MI-07 – Schauer seems to be coming back on Walberg.

MO-04 – Skelton is in for the fight of his life here.

MS-01 – Polling suggests that Nunnellee is modestly ahead.

NH-02 – Public polling shows a surprisingly close race here.  Bass should win though.

NM-02 – Every poll of this race has been tight.  Teague is a strong candidate.

NV-03 – Mason-Dixon has been showing modest Titus leads.

NY-20 – Murphy seems to have a clear but surmountable lead here.

NY-24 – Similar to NY-20.  Clear but surmountable lead for Arcuri.

OH-16 – Boccieri seems to be coming back here.  Trajectory like MI-07.

OH-18 – Gibbs must be clawing his way into it for Dems to invest here.

OR-05 – Republican poll shows a toss-up race.  I think Schrader is slightly ahead.

PA-03 – Dahlkemper is in big trouble.  Would greatly surprise me if she won.

PA-11 – Surprised the Dems are spending anything here.  Kanjorski seems to be behind.

SC-05 – This is a very serious challenge for the veteran Spratt.  He could definitely lose.

VA-02 – Nye seems to be a little behind.

VA-05 – Glad the Dems are playing here, but Periello is behind.

WA-03 – Interesting news that Herrera is barely lifting a finger.  Heck seems to be closing a little.

WI-07 – Duffy seems to be ahead here.

WI-08 – Atrocious polling for Kagen.  This seems uphill for him.

WV-01 – No polling for a while.  Oliviero is the right kind of Dem to win here.

The Goners – Races where Dems are running behind and neither party committee is engaging (6)

AR-02 – After November 2, Elliott will not have to worry about whether to vote for Pelosi.

KS-03 – No polling, but Yoder must be in control.

LA-03 – Sangisetty will not have to sweat that Pelosi vote either.

NY-29 – Thanks Eric Massa.  Love ya!  Tickle, tickle…

OH-01 – Consistent, double digit leads for Chabot.

TN-06 – Carter will not have to sweat that Pelosi vote either.

The Triage List – Races where Dems are running behind, the NRCC is spending, and the DCCC is not (11)

CO-04 – Markey behind or tied in every poll.

FL-08 – Grayson may have done himself in with “Taliban Dan” ad.

FL-24 – Kosmas way down in several polls, statistically tied in her own.

IL-11 – Every poll shows a big lead for Kinzinger.

IN-08 – Big lead for Bucshon in internal poll.

ND-AL – Pomeroy holding his own on huge warchest, but seems to be slightly behind.

NH-01 – Shea-Porter down big in public polls, but Guinta is a poor candidate.

PA-07 – Could be a triage candidate, but the last public poll was close.

PA-08 – Murphy down double digits in last public poll.  Seems like DCCC would spend here.

TN-08 – Republican polls show solid Fincher lead.

TX-17 – Edwards down in his own internals.

Ambitious Republican Targets – Races where Dems are running ahead, NRCC is spending, and DCCC is not (7)

MN-01 – Recent addition to NRCC target list.  Must be tightening.

NC-07 – This one is definitely tightening, but DCCC has not stepped in yet.

NJ-03 – Dems may be milking Adler cash advantage before getting in.

NM-01 – Heinrich seems to be ahead, but NRCC has recently engaged.

OH-06 – Like MN-01, another recent addition to the target list.  Probably tightening.

PA-10 – Carney seems to be slightly ahead against damaged Marino.

SD-AL – Same shit, different district.

VA-09 – Boucher seems relatively safe, but NRCC keeps getting after him.

Emerging Democratic Firewall – Races where Dems are running ahead, DCCC is spending, and NRCC is not (7)

GA-02 – Self-inflicted wounds and poor fundraising force DCCC to spend here.

IA-03 – Zaun seems to be damaged, but Dems clearly don’t feel out of the woods.

NC-08 – Kissell is an awful fundraiser, but I suspect he is ahead.

OH-13 – May be able to stop worrying about this one given Ganley’s S&M scandal.

PA-12 – NRCC understandably reluctant to invest in Tim Burns again.

TX-23 – Surprised NRCC has not made a run at this.  Rodriguez may be ahead.

VA-11 – Connolly did not beat Fimian THAT overwhelmingly in 2008.

Confident Republicans – Races where Dems are running behind, DCCC is spending, and NRCC is not (2)

NY-23 – Doheny poll showed a big lead, but I would expect the NRCC to spend due to Owens $$$ advantage.

OH-15 – Stivers probably does not need the help.

No News is Good News – Pundit-declared, endangered Dem seats where neither party committee has made I.E.’s (16)

AZ-08 – NRCC has been pretty ambitious but has not gone after Giffords.

CA-47 – Lack of NRCC investment leads me to believe Sanchez is ahead.

CO-07 – No attention for Perlmutter from the NRCC.

CT-04 – Given the lack of NRCC investment, I suspect Himes is up more than 2.

CT-05 – I believe Murphy’s internal, not that weird Merriman poll.

FL-22 – Huge candidate money on both sides.  Klein is endangered.

IA-02 – No help for Miller-Meeks yet from the NRCC.

ID-01 – Consistent double digit leads for Minnick.

KY-03 – Yarmuth seems to be comfortably ahead.

MI-09 – No NRCC investment in spite of Rossman Group poll showing Peters trailing.

NY-01 – No polling here for a while, but lack of NRCC investment is comforting.

NY-13 – McMahon and Grimm internals show comfortable McMahon leads.

NY-19 – Neither party is spending, yet two public polls show a tight race.  Strange.

PA-04 – Dusty DCCC poll showed Altmire very comfortably ahead.

TN-04 – Davis up double digits in his internal.  Lack of NRCC involvement comforting.

WA-02 – No NRCC help for Koster so far.  Larsen seems to be ahead.

The Endangered Species – Dems on Offense (5)

DE-AL – No investment by either party.  Carney seems to be well ahead here.

FL-25 – Refreshing that DCCC is spending here.  Rivera is a loose cannon.

HI-01 – DCCC is spending here.  NRCC will surreptitiously fund the state party if anything.  

IL-10 – Only Dem target where both parties have engaged.  Seals seems to be ahead.

LA-02 – No investment by either party.   Cao down 11 in DCCC internal taken before Obama ad.

This takes the cake, doesn’t it?

An election year already notable for its menagerie of extreme and unusual candidates can add another one: Rich Iott, the Republican nominee for Congress from Ohio’s 9th District, and a Tea Party favorite, who for years donned a German Waffen SS uniform and participated in Nazi re-enactments.

Iott, whose district lies in Northwest Ohio, was involved with a group that calls itself Wiking, whose members are devoted to re-enacting the exploits of an actual Nazi division, the 5th SS Panzer Division Wiking, which fought mainly on the Eastern Front during World War II. Iott’s participation in the Wiking group is not mentioned on his campaign’s website, and his name and photographs were removed from the Wiking website.

When contacted by The Atlantic, Iott confirmed his involvement with the group over a number of years, but said his interest in Nazi Germany was historical and he does not subscribe to the tenets of Nazism. “No, absolutely not,” he said. “In fact, there’s a disclaimer on the [Wiking] website. And you’ll find that on almost any reenactment website. It’s purely historical interest in World War II.”

Yeah, this is the guy:

Major props to the Atlantic’s excellent Josh Green for uncovering the story. Click the link to read more – and see more pics and even a video. I think my recent cracks about “consolidating panzer divisions” might wind up proving literally true in this district.

UPDATE: Good catch by TPM – the NRCC has already removed Iott from its Young Guns list.

• AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally got around to belatedly filing his financial disclosures, maybe feeling he had something to hide. He really shouldn’t, because he’s just like the rest of us: he’s carrying a lot of credit card debt. He owes between $35K and $80K on three separate charge accounts, and also owes himself $103K for a campaign loan.  That, my friends, is fiscal conservatism you can believe in. (His biggest asset seems to be undeveloped farmland worth at least $250K, apparently the same Delta Jct. land for which he was receiving farm subsidies.)

• FL-Sen: Here’s a freaky rumor (and I think it’s nothing more than that, as everything seems to be business as usual with the Kendrick Meek camp today, at least on the surface). The Wall St. Journal alludes to increased chatter that a Meek/Charlie Crist deal might be in the works for Meek to drop out of the race and clear the way for Crist to take all the left-of-center votes.

• IL-Sen, IL-Gov: The DGA is out with an internal poll of Illinois, via Global Strategy Group. The poll, though, has better news on the Senate front than the gubernatorial battle. Alexi Giannoulias leads Mark Kirk by 3: 40-37, with 3 each to the Green and Libertarian candidates. On the other hand, Pat Quinn, who’s popped up in the lead in a couple polls lately, trails Bill Brady by 1, at 36-35, with 4 for Green Rich Whitney, 2 for Lex Green, and 6 for Scott Lee Cohen. Just the fact that Quinn seems to be climbing back into the thick of things at this late date seems to be newsworthy in itself, though.

• MO-Sen: As is often the case with these advancing-in-a-different-direction stories, there have been some mixed signals about whether the DSCC is packing up in Missouri. Hotline is observing that this seems to be at least partially the case: they’ve canceled buys from Oct. 11 to Oct. 25, although the buy still seems intact for the last week before the election. They’ve spent $1.8 million in Missouri so far, but probably will be looking to spend that money on defense in West Virginia, or maybe even Washington, which seems to be slowly edging back onto the map.

• NV-Sen: We might expect a steady stream of endorsements on a regular basis from now until the election for Harry Reid from not-insane Republicans. Two were just unveiled in the last few days. One is from Bill Raggio, the former Republican leader in the state Senate (and a legislator since 1972), who has particular reason to dislike Sharron Angle, as she tried to primary him out of his Reno-area seat in 2008. The other is Dema Guinn, the widow of the recently deceased ex-Gov. Kenny Guinn, who also says that her former husband would have backed Reid in this case too.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/1-5, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 55 (48)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 34 (42)

Undecided: 11 (9)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 54 (45)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 35 (44)

Other: 8 (8)

Undecided: 3 (4)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 57 (49)

Carl Paladino (R): 34 (40)

Other: 5 (8)

Undecided: 3 (3)

(MoE: ±4%)

I think we can conclude that both those previous Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls — the two ones that came out simultaneously and had the big New York races in single digits, spurring a wave of panic — were some combination of a perfect wave of primary bounce and big honkin’ outlier. These races have resumed looking pretty much the way they have all cycle except for those two blips.

We also have NY-Sen-A numbers (60-30 for Chuck Schumer over Jay Townsend in SurveyUSA, and 63-32 in Quinnipiac), and NY-AG numbers (Eric Schneiderman leads Dan Donovan 46-40 in SurveyUSA, and 43-32 in Quinnipiac). Quinnipiac also has Thomas DiNapoli leading Harry Wilson 49-31 in the Comptroller race.

Public Policy Polling (9/30-10/2, likely voters, 8/7-8 (RVs) in parentheses, gubernatorial numbers here):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 46 (46)

Ken Buck (R): 45 (43)

Undecided: 9 (12)

John Hickenlooper (D): 47 (48)

Dan Maes (R): 13 (23)

Tom Tancredo (C): 33 (22)

Undecided: 7 (7)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Michael Bennet has the slimmest of leads in Colorado according to PPP, the pollster who’ve tended to be the most favorable to him. It’s an enthusiasm gap thing, although not as bad as in the midwest: if their August RV model were used, Bennet would lead 47-44 (and if the 2008 turnout model were used, he’d lead 50-41). Bennet’s approval is 35/49, while Buck is at 41/46.

On the gubernatorial front, Dan Maes has collapsed even further as his amateur-hour campaign leaks air; he’s down to 12/58 favorables (from 23/38 in their last poll). In a way, that’s bad news for John Hickenlooper, who needs a healthy split between the two conservatives instead of seeing Maes dwindle down into single digits, which may actually be possible given the current trajectory. Hickenlooper’s personal popularity (51/37) seems like it’ll be enough to help him weather even a complete Maes collapse, though.

Harstad Strategic Research (10/3-4, likely voters, no trendlines):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44

Ken Buck (R): 41

Other: 3

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4.4%)

For good measure, there’s also a poll of the Senate race out from Democratic pollster Harstad giving Michael Bennet a 3-point lead, and also finding Ken Buck with a 31/41 favorable. (Apparently this poll is from the Bennet campaign, though the memo doesn’t explicitly say.) I’m still not feeling terribly optimistic about this race, given that most other pollsters looking at this race have given Buck a mid-single-digits lead — and a leaked Dem poll with a 3-point lead doesn’t do much to encourage more optimism, but at least it plus the PPP poll show that the race is still in tossup territory.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek, sensing that time is running out, decided to reject the endorsement of the Sierra Club. Why? Because they wanted to co-endorse Charlie Crist, and Meek needs to do anything he can to differentiate himself from the governor, since they’re largely drawing from the same pool of voters these days. Meek tried to cast this as a principled stance, saying “The Sierra Club has chosen to stand with a governor who stood on stage applauding as Sarah Palin chanted, ‘Drill, Baby, Drill.'”

MO-Sen: The Smart Media Group is saying that the DSCC has cancelled two weeks worth of ad buys in Missouri. Given how often the tea-leaf reading has been wrong with all this ad stuff, I’d like to see further confirmation before making up my mind about what this means. (And guys, I don’t think you’re using cutesy hashtags properly.)

DE-Sen: The Cliff Claven of American politics:

If Barack Obama vetoes that the year before his re-election, he’s setting himself up to be very vulnerable and I’ve seen many Hillary for President ads running.

Christine O’Donnell, what color is the sky in your world?

AL-05: Oh god, this is NOT good:

Congressional candidate and veteran political consultant Steve Raby once ran four north Alabama political action committees that authorities say were used to route $200,000 from a Dothan casino owner to a state senator in a vote-buying scheme. Raby says he relinquished control of the PACs weeks before the money transfers.

And this is just not a headline you ever want to see in your own race:

Raby: I have not been accused of doing anything wrong

AR-04: Here’s a race that’s not on a lot of folks’ radars but probably should be, just because of the nature of the year & state. Republican Beth Anne Rankin is out with a one-day robopoll from Diamond State Consulting Group that shows Rep. Mike Ross leading by just a 44-41 margin, with 5% going to Green Party candidate Josh Drake. A poll from July had Ross up 55-33. But does Rankin have the resources to take down the Lord Satrap of the Blue Dogs? Ross had $1.1 million on hand as of June 30; Rankin, just $70K.

CT-04: Believe it or not, Merriman River Group is a Democratic pollster. But they sure have been putting out all kinds of numbers this week which are at odds with… well, everyone else’s numbers, particularly in CT-Sen and CT-05. In their most recent effort, they have Rep. Jim Himes at 49 and Republican Dan Debicella at 47, so I’ll be really curious to see if internals bear this one out. There are at least two things I don’t like about this poll: First off, they report numbers to decimal places, which is a bad practice because it gives a false sense of accuracy. Secondly, they refer to Himes’s opponent as “Dan DeBicella” throughout. C’mon, guys.

CT-05: Speaking of CT-05, here’s another poll from Chris Murphy (courtesy the Gotham Research Group), showing him up 48-34 over Sam Caligiuri. Murph’s last poll had a similar 50-38 margin. The only thing I don’t like here is the weak swipe at robopollsters (like Merriman) in the press release: “An automated computer survey can’t tell who is actually picking up the phone – a registered voter in the Fifth District, or a voter’s 10 year old cousin visiting from South Carolina.” Chris – we love you, man, but we know you can do better.

ID-01: In response to some rumor-mongering that showed up the other day in Roll Call, Walt Minnick said he “has no intention of changing parties.” I think the Parker Griffith party switch actually was a very good thing for us, as it demonstrated what is likely to happen to any other Dems who follow suit – you’ll get teabagged to death.

KS-01: In the race to succeed Rep. Jerry Moran (who is running for Senate), Republican Tim Huelskamp leads Democrat Alan Jilka by a 63-26 margin, according to SurveyUSA.

KY-06: Dueling internals in Eastern Kentucky. First up is Ben Chandler, whose poll from the Mellman group has him up 52-40 over Andy Barr. That’s actually a decline from his numbers a few weeks ago which had him up 53-33, but Barr’s gain seems pretty understandable – and importantly, Chandler hasn’t slipped. (These numbers are also backed up by a recent Braun poll.) Meanwhile, Barr’s survey has it 48-47 in favor of the Republican, which are the best numbers we’ve seen from his camp all cycle.

TX-17: Chet Edwards also has an internal poll out, from Bennett, Petts and Normington. It’s not particularly good news: Bill Flores leads 46-42. Still, it’s better than the most recent Flores own-poll, which had him up 55-36.

VA-05: Jesus, what is with this guy? Teabagger Jeff Clark has been pulling the Hamlet act more melodramatically than anyone since Mario Cuomo. Now he’s claiming he might drop out of the race because he’s being excluded from a series of debates between Rep. Tom Perriello and Republican Rob Hurt. Some of his backers say they might file a legal challenge, but that seems dubious.

SSP TV:

• NH-Sen: Even though Democrats on the Hill were too fucking stupid to schedule a vote on the Obama tax cuts which would have given them great campaign fodder, props to Paul Hodes for cutting an ad on the issue regardless. Hodes says he supports extending middle class tax cuts, but is very explicit that he wants to let tax breaks for the wealthiest expire – unlike Kelly Ayotte
• NV-Sen: Hah, if this works, I’ll be impressed: Sharron Angle’s ad hits Reid on a few votes (like the stimulus), and also includes this gem: Reid’s vote against Tom Coburn’s retarded “no Viagra for sex offenders” poison-pill amendment to the healthcare reform bill
• NY-Gov: There is no fucking way I am watching this whole thing. The best summary: “Danny Devito’s version of the Checkers speech“
• PA-Sen: Another fucking gong ad, this time from Joe Sestak, hitting the same themes as the DSCC ad from the other day. Do we seriously need to emulate Sixteen Candles?
• MA-10: The DCCC hits Jeffrey Perry – and hits him hard – for his role as supervising officer when two teenage girls were strip-searched by a cop under his command in the 90s
• DCCC: The D-Trip has a nice map where you can click around to see ads they’re running in key races. You can also check out their YouTube channel

I noticed today that Nate Silver crunched the numbers for the Minnesota Governor’s race and determined that Democrat Mark Dayton had a 77% chance of victory.  Pretty generous.  With the exception of the 1994 Arne Carlson reelection landslide, Minnesota has had 20 years worth of gubernatorial elections that have had so many dramatic twists and turns that they could have been made into movies.  One actually was!  Given this record of volatility and other specifics of this contest, I think Nate’s traditional calculus needs to be thrown out.  This race is far from over, and all three candidates still have a viable path to victory.

If recent Minnesota gubernatorial elections are any indication, the great equalizer will be the late October televised debates.  Polls moved in double digits in both directions in a matter of a week based on Minnesota gubernatorial debates.  If you impress there, you’re golden.  If you fail to impress, you’re ruined.  And that’s true almost wherever your poll numbers may currently be.  The Independence Party’s articulate 2006 candidate Peter Hutchinson was not in a position to win, but he nonetheless impressed in the debates and managed to surge at Mike Hatch’s expense, handing victory to Pawlenty.  With that in mind, let’s get back to 2010.

Let’s start with the least complicated candidate, both in terms of intellect and his position in the race.  That would be Republican Tom Emmer.  He’s been rendered a kook by a solid majority of the electorate and, in a three-candidate race, has a ceiling of about 42% with a basement that could conceivably go as low as 30%.  On the plus side for him, however, is that it’s gonna be a Republican year and more low-information voters than usual are likely to pull the lever for whoever has the (R) next to his name.  I suspect this will be especially true outstate where Emmer’s hard-right social values are less likely to offend than they would in the suburbs, but whose economic values would devastate them.  Emmer’s pathway to victory comes from wedging Horner vs. Dayton and picking up the slack.  Right now, Horner is probably taking more votes away from Emmer than Dayton.  If Emmer can reverse that and pit Dayton versus Horner, which is entirely doable in a year like this, he can simultaneously lift Horner’s numbers and plummet Dayton’s, allowing Emmer to squeak by with a 35% or better plurality.

Moving onto Dayton whose position of strength is based on three things.  First, he’s held office in Minnesota going back to the 1980s and is the only candidate with statewide name recognition, especially among senior voters who tend to view him most favorably.  Second, he’s exceeding expectations with the seriousness of his gubernatorial run after his disastrous Senate tenure had initially hurt his favorable ratings.  Having watched early debates, he seems most in command of the issues, and when his numbers are proven to not add up, he quickly fixes them in a way his opponents won’t do.  And lastly, the right and center-right are divided between Horner and Emmer, meaning Dayton doesn’t need a majority or even a strong plurality to win.

With all that said, Dayton’s support is incredibly thin, as was proven when he eked out a one-point primary win in August that he was supposed to win by double-digits.  My fear is that when the spotlight’s on in the ninth inning, voters will find “the other guy” more appealing.  While Emmer’s basement of support is very unlikely to sink below 30%, Dayton’s basement could conceivably drop to Kendrick Meek levels.  If Horner is able to pick off soft Dayton voters, Dayton could easily go the way of 1998 Skip “28%” Humphrey at the hands of Jesse Ventura. Even in the best-case scenario, however, I strongly reject the premise of a 77% likelihood of victory for Dayton.  As Dan Rather would say, his lead is “shakier than cafeteria Jell-O”.  And seeing that poll earlier this week showing Jim Oberstar with a scant three-point lead in MN-08 makes Dayton’s standing seem all the more fickle given that northern Minnesota (Oberstar country) would most realistically be the place where Dayton would run up the score.  If voters up there are that cool towards Oberstar, I expect they could just as easily turn on Dayton.

Now, onto Tom Horner, whose position in this race is very complicated but nowhere near dire enough to proclaim his chances of victory at zero as Nate Silver’s calculation suggests.  Horner has a number of advantages and disadvantages in the hand he holds and only time will tell which direction the 2010 political environment will pull him.  Working to his benefit more than anything else is the endless free advertising his campaign gets from Minnesota media, particularly the left-leaning Minneapolis Star Tribune which blows kisses to Horner on a literal daily basis and never misses a chance to piss on Dayton.  In my decades of reading the Star Tribune, never have I seen them work so hard to get a candidate elected as they are for Tom Horner.  Secondly, his opponents have been successfully caricatured as an extreme liberal and an extreme conservative, given Horner a huge opening to present himself as the guy in the middle when he gets his moment in the spotlight.  Any other year, Horner would not be likely to catch on, but as a center-right candidate in a center-right year facing off against two uninspiring foes who are both seen as ideologues, he might be the right guy at the right time.

Horner has serious downsides though too.  Charismatic Jesse Ventura was able to be the third-party hero during the 1998 economic boom on a painless platform.  Tom Horner has little to none of Jesse’s charisma and, given the budgetary armageddon facing the state, has nothing to offer but pain.  And while Horner is widely praised for his comprehensive budget plan, the pain is all reserved for the same groups of people who’ve been on the receiving end of the pain after eight uninterrupted years of budget crises under Pawlenty.  It’s always the working class and middle class expected to take a haircut, and Horner has carefully crafted his plan to make sure the wealthy that have been spared from sacrifice in the past eight years aren’t required to make a proportional contribution this year either.  Furthermore, Horner’s made a lot of money as a consultant to corporate heavies in the last decade, and if he catches on, it will be pointed out by his opponents that Horner’s tax plan effectively amounts to their payola.

And there’s one more wild card in play here.  Remember the 2008 Presidential map for Minnesota?  Where about 18-20 counties in Minnesota’s northwestern, southwestern, and southeastern corners showed tremendous growth for Obama even as much of state saw little improvement from Kerry’s numbers in 2004?   The explanation behind that phenomenon was that Obama monopolized the Fargo and Grand Forks, ND, Sioux Falls, SD, and La Crosse, WI, media markets while John McCain monopolized all of the Minnesota media markets.  In statewide races in Minnesota, voters in these Dakota and Wisconsin media markets are completely blacked out from Minnesota state politics, meaning these parts of the state tend to be unfamiliar with any of the candidates and are likely to base their votes on name ID and generic party preference.  This dynamic proved to be an advantage even to Skip Humphrey in these areas in 1998, and should really benefit Dayton in 2010 given his opponents, both of whom could just as well be named Bob Smith given their limited profile to these voters.  Horner in particular has little chance at getting more than 10% in these areas of the state and represent one more obstacle he’ll need to overcome, and even though they make up a small percentage of overall voters, they could easily be the difference in a close election.

With all this in mind, who’s gonna win?  It’s almost impossible to predict where a Minnesota gubernatorial election will go until the final few days, but it’s hard to deny Dayton still has a long-term advantage.  I see Horner gaining at Dayton’s expense in the weeks ahead…and perhaps a little bit at Emmer’s expense as well.  It’s not hard to imagine Horner soaring to a load or a position of serious competitiveness, but the fact that it hasn’t happened yet makes me more skeptical than I was two months ago that it every will.  

My best guess is the county map will look similar to the 2002 and 2006 gubernatorial race county maps, but with a few important caveats.  Dayton will win solid majorities in Minneapolis and St. Paul, but with Horner in the mix, he won’t dominate there.  I suspect Horner’s best numbers will come in the second and third-ring suburbs…places like Bloomington, Minnetonka, Blaine, and Eagan that tend to be the bellwethers in modern Minnesota elections.  However, Horner is not currently poised to win by enough there to compensate for his shortcomings elsewhere.  Still, my money is on a 25% showing from Horner in the state’s five most populous counties (Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, Anoka, and Washington) based on his strength in the moderate suburbs.

Emmer will dominate in exurbia scoring solid majorities in counties like Sherburne, Wright, Carver, and Scott.  Horner will probably keep Emmer from winning these areas with more than 60% or even 65% as he would in a one-on-one race with Dayton, but it will clearly be the foundation of Emmer’s strength in the statewide race.  As for outstate, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of the independent-friendly rural counties like Sibley, Renville, and Kanabec go for Horner, but by and large it’ll be a two-candidate race outstate with a county configuration similar to the Hatch-Pawlenty race of 2006.  Emmer will pull in a narrow plurality outstate, but not enough to make up for his deficit in the core five counties of the metro area.

So there’s my take.  Lower Mark Dayton’s advantage from Nate Silver’s 77% to about 47% and raise Tom Horner’s from 0% to 20% and I think you have the state of the Minnesota gubernatorial election.  But again, ask me again on November 1.  In Minnesota, gubernatorial politics are very seldom this simple.

Hey folks,

I wanted to let you all know that Senator Patty Murray will be doing a Live Chat with Blue America over at Crooks and Liars from 5-6pm PST this evening.

For eighteen years, Patty has been a leader on progressive issues. Her opponent, perennial candidate Dino Rossi, has been attacking her constantly on TV with the help of shadowy special interest groups aligned with Karl Rove.

Ballots arrive in Washington's mailboxes in one week – and we need your help to keep Patty in the Senate and send the special interests packing!

Feel free to stop by and ask Patty a question or leave a comment – and if you're able to support our campaign as well, we'd really appreciate it!

Hope to see you there!

Doug Foote
New Media Director
People for Patty Murray