Month: October 2010

Hi folks –

GERRYMANDERING is going to be in theaters nationwide this week.  The last time I wrote about it here, lots of folks wanted to know when it would hit certain areas, so here’s our opening salvo.

I’ll be doing Q&As in a bunch of places, so I hope folks come out and ask hard questions!  

10/12*: Camera 3 – San Jose, CA

10/12*+: Catamount Arts – St. Johnsbury, VT

10/12*+: Cinema Paradiso – Ft. Lauderdale, FL

10/12*: Lake Worth Playhouse – Lake Worth, FL

10/12*: Varsity Cinema – Davis, CA

10/12*+: 5 Points Theatre – Jacksonville, FL

10/12*: Mos’ Art – Lake Park, FL

10/12*+: Theatre N – Wilmington, DE

10/12*+: Palm Theater – Telluride CO

10/12*+: Riviera Theatre – Three Rivers, MI

10/12*: Beach Theater – St. Pete Beach, FL

10/13*: Pickford Film Center – Bellingham, WA

10/13*: Galaxy Cinema – Cary, NC

10/14-24+: Hawaii International Film Festival, Honolulu, HI

10/14-25+: Philadelphia Film Festival – Philadelphia, PA

10/15+: Village East – New York, NY

10/15+: Nuart – Los Angeles, CA

10/15: Lumiere – San Francisco, CA

10/15: Shattuck – Berkeley, CA

10/15: Ken – San Diego, CA

10/15-17+: Downbeach Film Festival – Atlantic City, NJ

10/19*: Crest Theater – Sacramento, CA

10/20-24: IndieMemphis Film Festival – Memphis, TN

10/22-24: Tallgrass Film Festival – Wichita, KS

10/22*: Byrd Theater – Richmond, VA

10/25*: Belcourt Theater – Nashville, TN

10/29+: West End Theatre – Washington, D.C.

11/1*: Salt Lake City Film Society – Salt Lake City, UT

11/1*: University of Maryland – College Park, MD

11/12*: Miami City Hall – Miami, FL

11/12: Valley Art – Phoenix, AZ

BOLD = Full Theatrical Engagements

*One-night only

+Q&As (Check local listings for details

We’ll be updating screenings here: http://www.gerrymanderingmovie…

Advance word has been terrific thus far:

“An exceptionally entertaining film.” – Bilge Ebiri, New York Magazine

“Every American voter should see this.” – Paul Constant, The Stranger

“****.  If you care about the future of America, see this movie.” – Matt Thomas, NY Examiner

“Cinematic – in the best way – all the way through.” – Howard Feinstein, Screen International

“A film seemingly made for Jon Stewart’s ‘Restoring Sanity’ movement.” – Stan Hall, The Oregonian

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (10/9-10/10, likely voters, no trendlines):

Suzan DelBene (D): 46

Dave Reichert (R-inc): 49

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±3%)

Despite this race flying almost completely under the radar until a few weeks ago — when a SurveyUSA poll found a 7-point gap and then a Suzan DelBene internal found a 4-point race — the race in the 8th is looking surprisingly competitive all of a sudden. That’s probably thanks to a decidedly lackluster performance from Dave Reichert this year (as seen by the unexpected loss of support from his usual best friends at the Seattle Times) as well as DelBene marshaling her resources for a major ad pounding at the end. PPP finds an even closer race now, with DelBene down by only 3, seemingly thanks to a reduction in the amount of ticket-splitting that has traditionally helped Reichert (as DelBene is winning Obama voters 80-15). (And if you’re wondering, there’s no SurveyUSA-style generational weirdness here; DelBene wins 62-19 among the 18-34 set.)

There’s one disconcerting number in the crosstabs, and that’s that within the district, Patty Murray and Dino Rossi are tied 49-49. Since this district is basically the bellwether for the state (Obama won the state 57-41, and won the 8th 57-42), that extrapolates out to a more or less tied race statewide. On the one hand, that’s bad news, as it would seem to confirm that general sense that Murray has lost some ground from her seeming spike last month. But on the other hand, that’s good news, as it confirms that this isn’t an overly Dem-friendly sample, and if Murray improves a few points and brings some more DelBene voters along with her, that can move DelBene even closer to 50%.

UPDATE: H/t to Minnesota Mike in comments, who points out (via the truly helpful Washington SoS website) that Rossi won 51-48 in the 8th in the 2008 gubernatorial race (which Chris Gregoire won 53-47), and by 54-44 in the 2004 gubernatorial race (which Gregoire won 48.87-48.87). That may actually be a better benchmark than Obama numbers, come to think of it — as, very importantly, Rossi is from the 8th, as he used to represent the Issaquah-based 5th LD in the state Senate. So if he’s tied in his own neighborhood, he’s probably lagging the 50% mark by a bit statewide.

• CO-Sen: This probably doesn’t count as an October Surprise since it made a big media impression five years ago, but it’s suddenly popped back into view, and making things dicier for Ken Buck, already on the wrong end of a sizable gender gap in the polls. Buck refused to prosecute a rape case as Weld Co. DA five years ago (despite the police having recommended charges), and the alleged victim is now back in the news. She has a taped recording of their meeting (transcript available at the link) in which he seems to blame the victim and suggest that the case wouldn’t pass muster with a jury.

• FL-Sen: Mason-Dixon (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 21 (23)

Marco Rubio (R): 42 (40)

Charlie Crist (I): 27 (28)

(MoE: ±4%)

With Marco Rubio way ahead, it looks like a Kendrick Meek dropout (rumored on Friday) and a cobbling-together of some sort of Meek/Crist hybrid cyborg would be the only way for the non-Rubio forces to get an advantage in this race. However, Meek’s definitely not acting like a man who’s dropping out, if getting the president of the United States to cut a radio ad for you is any indication.

• WV-Sen: Remember that “hicky” ad that the NRSC ran, and then promptly got apologetic over, once the casting call instructions got leaked? (I know, that was last week, a lifetime ago in politics…) Now it sounds like it just kept running anyway, through last Friday for several days after the story broke, despite promises to take it down.

• NM-Gov: Yep, this is definitely the most over-polled, or at least over-internal-poll-leaked, race around. Today it’s Diane Denish’s turn to retaliate, and she’s out with another poll from one of her apparently two pollsters, Third Eye Strategies, with a 46-46 tie (a little stale, taken 9/21-23). I think we get the general idea, already: Denish sees a tie, Susana Martinez sees a high-single-digits lead for herself, public pollsters see something in between. (UPDATE: That’s odd… we reported this poll several weeks ago. Not sure why it’s back in the news today.)

• CA-47: This is the kind of unity that Loretta Sanchez (last seen alienating her district’s small but politically active Vietnamese community with an ill-advised remark) probably doesn’t like to see: apparently there was a major rift with the Vietnamese Republican community that just got sealed up, as long-time Van Tran rival Janet Nguyen (an Orange County councilor) gave a late-game endorsement to Tran.

• CT-02, CT-03: Merriman River Group hits the quinella in Connecticut, with polls of the two House races in the Nutmeg State that aren’t interesting. In the 2nd, despite getting some touting when she got in the race, GOPer Janet Peckinpaugh is making little impression against Joe Courtney, trailing 55-41. And in the 3rd, Rosa DeLauro is the state’s safest Dem, leading Jerry Labriola 58-37.

• FL-22: Endorsements from primary challengers, especially at this stage in the game, are interesting only when they go to the guy from the other party. But that’s what’s happening in the 22nd, where the guy who lost to Allen West, David Brady, gave his backing to Democratic incumbent Ron Klein today. (So too did several minor-league local elected GOPers, including Palm Beach mayor Jack McDonald.) Says Brady, apparently from the sane wing of the GOP (to the extent that the Palm Beach Post endorsed him in the primary): “I ran against Allen West. I debated him and I can tell you: Allen West is too extreme for this community.”

• MS-04: Dueling polls in the 4th, where everything still averages out to a Democratic lean but unfortunately this is looking like one more real race. GOP state Rep. Steven Palazzo offered a poll a few weeks ago saying incumbent Gene Taylor led by only 4, and now Taylor says, no, he’s leading by 8 (without giving us any other useful information, like the toplines, let alone the pollster or dates). Hmmm, that’s only a difference of four points, so why show your hand, especially in such haphazard fashion? Somehow I don’t think Taylor would be a very good poker player.

• NY-22, NY-25: Bill Clinton showing up in upstate New York to stump on behalf of Dan Maffei, that’s not a surprise, as this race seems to be competitive. But also Maurice Hinchey in the 22nd? We haven’t gotten any smoke signals out of that district before, but that’s an indication that something may bubbling under here. (It’s a D+6 district, and Hinchey barely won in ’94.)

• OH-01: One more unfortunate though unsurprising triage decision to report: Steve Driehaus seems to have run out of time at the DCCC, who are canceling their remaining ad buy in the Cincinnati market for the next two weeks. The deadline for reservations cancellations is coming up soon, so we’ll soon know who else gets the shortest straw drawn for them.

• PA-10: After seeing a incumbent Chris Carney up by single digits in a recent public poll from Lycoming, GOP challenger Tom Marino rummaged around in his poll drawer and pulled out one from the Tarrance Group giving him a 47-42 lead on Carney. (No word from the Fix on the dates, though.)

• TN-04: One last GOP internal to throw into the mix: a POS survey (from 9/27-28) on behalf of Scott DesJarlais shows him tied with Dem incumbent Lincoln Davis, 42-42. We haven’t seen any public polling of this race (and may not, as the NRCC doesn’t seem to be pushing this one hard, maybe on the off chance that it’s the kind of district that’ll flip in a wave regardless of what they do), but Davis claimed an 11-point lead in a late August internal.

• House: If you’re thinking that it seems like there are a lot more races in the “Tossup” and “Lean” categories this year, you’re not alone. Nate Silver quantifies various ways in which there are way more competitive races this year than in other recent cycles, including number of races where there are polls within single-digits, where there are polls period, and where there are major financial contributions.

• Redistricting: This is an interesting, if counterintuitive, piece from HuffPo on redistricting, which proposes that we’ll be in better shape in 2010 redistricting than 2000 redistricting because (based on projected gubernatorial and state legislative outcomes) we’ll have more control over the process in more important states: oddly he leaves out California, but also including Florida, Illinois, Michigan, and Virginia (all states where there was a GOP trifecta last time), and Minnesota and New York (where we might get the trifecta this time)… while the states where the GOP will improve its position aren’t as large (Alabama, Indiana, Tennessee… with Georgia the most significant one). The article also gets into the nitty-gritty of where the population growth within the fast-growing states has occurred (i.e. among minorities).

• Polltopia: You might have noticed that Political Wire briefly had some Senate polls up today from somebody I’ve never heard of before, called “TCJ Research.” Those polls mysteriously vanished after Nate Silver, vanquisher of bogus pollsters, showed up on the scene with a simple tweet:

A WordPress blog getting ~500 hits a day on posts like “October Giveaway: 32 Gigabyte Apple iPad!” suddenly commissions 5 polls? Not likely.

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: Two different ads from the DSCC attacking Mark Kirk, hitting him for his House voting record and also revisiting Kirk’s misrememberment of his military record

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall’s finally out with a TV spot, going after Richard Burr for helping to break the economy

• WV-Sen: While John Raese nods to the ‘hick’ ad semi-apologetically before changing the subject back to Washington Dems, Joe Manchin seems to be trying to out-hick the hick ad by touting his pro-gun and anti-environment credentials in one fell swoop by (I kid you not) shooting a copy of the cap-and-trade bill

• IL-Gov: The most famous Illinoisian, Barack Obama, cuts a radio spot on behalf of Pat Quinn

• RI-Gov: The DGA pounds Lincoln Chafee one more time from the right, accusing him of being a tax-hiking hippy

• FL-22: Ron Klein moves past the boring fixation on Allen West’s tax liens and onto the really juicy stuff about 2nd Amendment remedies

• MN-06: Taryl Clark hits Michele Bachmann on Social Security

• PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper touts her pro-life credentials in her new ad, explaining her siding with the Stupak bloc on health care reform

• VA-02: The DCCC’s IE unit points the “hypocrite” arrow at Scott Rigell, for making hundreds of thousands of dollars off “Cash for Clunkers”

• WI-08: Ditto the DCCC ad in the 8th, where they hit Reid Ribble for making hundreds of thousands of dollars for his roofing business off stimulus projects

• Rasmussen:

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 44%

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 47%, Rick Scott (R) 50%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 19%, Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 25%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 41%, Nathan Deal (R) 50%

• GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 38%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 53%

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 38%, Tom Horner (I) 15%

• NE-Gov: Mike Meister (D) 24%, Dave Heineman (R-inc) 66%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 44%, Kelly Ayotte (R) 51%

• NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 43%, Susana Martinez (R) 52%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 53%

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 48%, Chris Dudley (R) 46%

• SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 33%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 57%

• TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 42%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 53%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 49%

• Angus-Reid: Some of you might have gotten excited about the California numbers offered up today by Angus-Reid (a well-established Canadian pollster, but apparently making their first foray into the States). Well, don’t, because they’re using an RV model, and more importantly, it’s an Internet sample. (Now presumably there’s some scientific selection behind it, not just a “click here!” banner ad, but we’re highly skeptical nonetheless, especially since that seemed to produce notably pro-Dem results in California.)

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 53%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 55%, Carly Fiorina (R) 39%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 46%, John Kasich (R) 48%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 42%, Rob Portman (R) 53%

The DCCC is out with seven new polls showing five Democratic incumbents in the lead, and two challengers giving GOP incumbents serious races:

AZ-05: Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/3-4, likely voters):

Harry Mitchell (D-inc): 46

David Schweikert (R): 39

(MoE: ±4.9%)

HI-01: Global Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/4-6, likely voters):

Colleen Hanabusa (D): 48

Charles Djou (R-inc): 44

(MoE: ±4.9%)

IA-03: Bennett, Petts and Normington for the DCCC (10/3-4, likely voters):

Leonard Boswell (D-inc): 49

Brad Zaun (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

IL-14: Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/4-6, likely voters):

Bill Foster (D-inc): 48

Randy Hultgren (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NC-07: Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/3-5, likely voters):

Mike McIntyre (D-inc): 52

Ilario Pantano (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NC-11: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (10/4-6, likely voters):

Heath Shuler (D-inc): 54

Jeff Miller (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.8%)

PA-15: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/27-29, likely voters):

John Callahan (D): 43

Charlie Dent (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Of course, I’d like to see the internals they’re not releasing, too…

The boys down at SSP Shipping & Receiving are, frankly, completely overwhelmed with the influx of incoming polling to report. That’s why we gotta dish ’em out with no added frills, bulk-style. Our latest dose:

KY-Sen: Braun Research for cn|2 (10/4-6, likely voters, 8/30-9/1 in parens):

Jack Conway (D): 40 (37)

Rand Paul (R): 43 (42)

Undecided: 17 (20)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

NC-Sen: High Point University (9/25-30, adults, no trend lines):

Elaine Marshall (D): 31

Richard Burr (R-inc): 45

Mike Beitler (L): 4

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±5%)

WI-Sen: Fairbank Maslin for the DSCC (10/4-6, likely voters):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 48

Ron Johnson (R): 49

(MoE: ±4%)

FL-Gov: Mason-Dixon (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 44 (47)

Rick Scott (R): 40 (40)

(MoE: ±4%)

OH-Gov, OH-Sen: Suffolk University (10/4-6, likely voters, no trend lines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 42

John Kasich (R): 46

Dennis Spisak (G): 4

Ken Matesz (L): 2

Undecided: 5

Lee Fisher (D): 37

Rob Portman (R): 47

Michael Pryce (I): 4

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-Gov, ME-01: Maine Center for Public Opinion for Pine Tree Politics (Gov | -01) (10/4-7, likely voters, no trend lines):

Libby Mitchell (D): 29

Paul LePage (R): 30

Eliot Cutler (I): 11

Shawn Moody (I): 5

Kevin Scott (I): 2

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 46

Dean Scontras (R): 38

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±5.3%)

MI-Gov: EPIC MRA (10/3-7, likely voters, 9/11-12 in parens):

Virg Bernero (D): 29 (29)

Rick Snyder (R): 49 (53)

(MoE: ±4%)

CA-18: SurveyUSA for KFSN-TV (10/5-6, likely voters, no trend lines):

Dennis Cardoza (D-inc): 50

Mike Berryhill (R): 44

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±4%)

CA-18: J. Moore Methods for Dennis Cardoza (9/27-29, likely voters):

Dennis Cardoza (D-inc): 53

Mike Berryhill (R): 37

(MoE: ±5%)

ID-01: Moore Information for Raul Labrador (10/5-6, voter screen unspecified, 7/12-13 in parens):

Walt Minnick (D-inc): 37 (37)

Raul Labrador (R): 31 (27)

Dave Olson (I): 6 (4)

Mike Washburn (L): 6 (4)

Undecided/None: 21 (28)

(MoE: ±6%)

IN-07: EPIC-MRA (10/1-3, likely voters):

Andre Carson (D-inc): 50

Marvin Scott (R): 33

Dav Wilson (L): 6

(MoE: ±4.9%)

KS-04: SurveyUSA (10/6-7, likely voters, 9/14-15 in parens):

Raj Goyle (D): 40 (40)

Mike Pompeo (R): 53 (50)

Shawn Smith (L): 3

Susan Ducey (RP): 2 (4)

Undecided: 3 (4)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

MI-15: Rossman Group/Team TelCom (10/4, voter screen unspecified):

John Dingell (D-inc): 40

Rob Steele (R): 44

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±5.6%)

NY-04: McLaughlin & Associates for Fran Becker (10/6, likely voters, 6/10 in parens):

Carolyn McCarthy (D-inc): 46 (45)

Fran Becker (R): 45 (25)

Undecided: 9 (31)

(MoE: ±5.6%)

NY-19: Iona College for RNN-TV/Westchester County Association (10/6, voter screen unspecified):

John Hall (D-inc): 42

Nan Hayworth (R): 42

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±3.5%)

NY-25: McLaughlin & Associates for Ann Marie Buerkle (10/4-5, likely voters, 7/10 in parens):

Dan Maffei (D-inc): 39 (46)

Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 40 (39)

Undecided: 21 (17)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Take that last one with a grain of salt, though — note that directly before the head-to-head top line question, McLaughlin asked if voters would like to send an Obama-supporting Democrat to Congress or a Republican who would provide a “check and balance”.

PA-03: Mercyhurst College (9/22-10/5, registered voters):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 37

Mike Kelly (R): 44

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±3.9%)

CO-Sen: Clinton alert! The Big Dog is doing a rally for Sen. Michael Bennet in Denver on Oct. 18th. Interestingly, Bill had endorsed Andrew Romanoff in the primary.

CT-Sen: Open seat fans, start getting ready for the 2022 cycle! In a weird attempt to channel 1994, Linda McMahon says she will serve a maximum of two terms. Uh, okay.

NY-Gov: The Carl Paladino charm offensive continues:

Flame-throwing Republican Carl Paladino erupted again, declaring yesterday that being gay is “not the example that we should be showing our children.”

“I don’t want [children] brainwashed into thinking homosexuality is an equally valid and successful option – it isn’t,” Paladino said to applause at a meeting with Hasidic Jewish leaders in Brooklyn’s Williamsburg section.

In a version of the speech distributed by a rabbi, the anti-gay rant went further, charging there is “nothing to be proud of in being a dysfunctional homosexual.”

Getting less play, but likely to damage him among the very community he was trying to reach out to, were Paladino’s remarks attacking Orthodox Jewish “power brokers” who supposedly have conned key rabbis.

AZ-07: While my feeling is that Raul Grijalva probably does have a competitive race on his hands, I’m not sure this Politico piece really adds much in the way of new news. All we have is that one Magellan poll which showed the race tight, and a lot of whispers. It’s almost like Politico is holding up a mirror at the edge of a rippling pond and – lo and behold! – making the ripples appear to be twice as broad as they actually are. The only real tidbit here is that Rep. Xavier Becerra, a member of leadership, recently exhorted Congressional Hispanic Caucus members to give to Grijalva.

MI-07: Former Rep. Joe Schwarz once again endorsed Mark Schauer, the man who beat Tim Walberg – aka the man who beat Joe Schwarz in the GOP primary in 2006. Schwarz also backed Schauer in 2008 (and previously backed Walberg’s opponent Brian Rooney in this year’s Republican primary).

NJ-03: This is the kind of thing which makes the bedwetters at newspaper editorial boards wring their hands like mad men, but as far as I’m concerned, it’s just good politics. The Courier-Post has a detailed story explaining how Democrats helped mysterious teabagger Peter DeStefano get on the ballot. No one except us junkies care about process stories, so I think Dems should be doing a lot more of this kind of thing.

NY-02: NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg heads outside city and party lines to endorse Democratic Long Island Rep. Steve Israel.

SC-05: Yet another Republican hypocrite. John Spratt’s been hitting Mick Mulvaney for his involvement in a real estate development deal that received a $30 million loan from Lancaster County and then went south – but not before Mulvaney flipped the property for a profit. Now Mulvaney says, “I believe small business needs government to get out of the way.” Spratt fired back: “When he needed $30 million, he didn’t go to his bank, he didn’t go to private sources, he went to county government.” Spratt’s also been running an ad on this issue.

TX-17: Man, yet another similar story. Here Dave Michaels of the Dallas Morning News’ lede says it all: “The Republican challenger who has assailed Rep. Chet Edwards for supporting taxpayer bailouts once led his company through a bankruptcy that let it avoid a $7.5 million debt to the U.S. government.” The piece goes on to note that (predictably) Flores “insists that private companies shouldn’t rely on the government for subsidies or financing.” Of course he does.

Chamber of Commerce: The LA Times has a piece noting that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has been digging deep to help a bunch of Blue Dogs late this cycle, including TV ads on behalf of Jim Marshall (GA-08), Glenn Nye (VA-02), Frank Kratovil (MD-01), Travis Childers (MS-01), and Bobby Bright (AL-02). These spots are taking the form of “issue” ads so as to avoid election-related regulations – you can see one example here.

DGA: The DGA says it raised $10 million in the third quarter and has $13 million on hand. Allied groups have some $3 million in cash. Politico says the RGA is expected to top these numbers.

SSP TV:

• DE-Sen: A shadowy third-party group has a funny new ad out supporting Zerata the Enchantress… uh, I mean, Christine O’Donnell
• IL-Sen: A new spot from MoveOn hits a topic Dems nationwide have been making a big issue of recently: foreign money being used to potentially support Chamber of Commerce election activities
• KY-Sen: Another Jack Conway ad hitting Rand Paul for his $2,000 Medicare deductable scheme – and his desire to increase payments to doctors
• LA-Sen: Wow. This must-see ad from David Vitter takes the cake as by far the most racist ad of the 2010 cycle
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin attacks John Raese for the “hicky” ad casting call – and the fact that Raese wife is registered to vote in Florida and can’t even vote for her husband. A second ad could have been written and produced by Republicans
• SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen goes after Nikki Haley for double-speak on economic issues, though I think it tries to cram too many things in, and the drum-beat kind of interferes with the audio
• IL-17: The conservative American Future Fund says they’re dropping half a million bucks on a new ad campaign targeting Rep. Phil Hare – here’s what they’re spending it on
• LA-02: Joe Cao has a pretty good ad hitting Cedric Richmond on ethical issues
• MA-10: Dem Bill Keating has a good ad nailing Jeff Perry for the illegal strip-search business that took place on his watch as a police sergeant
• MN-01: GOPer Randy Demmer has a comparison spot, going after Tim Walz for the usual (healthcare, cap-n-trade, etc.) and then finishing with some positive bio-ish crap
• PA-08: Patrick Murphy attacks Mike Fitzpatrick for raising property taxes
• SC-02: Rob Miller goes after Joe Wilson for spending taxpayer money on travel to Hawaii and France

This is the third part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state  Colorado. It will focus on the swing areas in Colorado – the parts that will vote for both Democrats and Republicans. The fourth part can be found here.

Swing Colorado

The swing areas of Colorado lie on the edges of the Democratic base in Colorado, which forms a rough “C” shape (more on this in the next post). They can be mapped as below:

More below.

This map incorporates five presidential elections, from 1992 to 2008. Republicans won the state three times; Democrats twice. Of the swing counties pictured here, President Bill Clinton did better in the rural swing areas, mostly in southern Colorado. President Barack Obama, on the other hand, had his strength in several highly populated, suburban swing counties.

Swing Colorado is, like the Republican base, divided into two quite different domains. The first domain is composed by the rural, “Clinton” counties. This region has much in common with the Republican parts of rural Colorado; it is generally poorer and extremely thinly populated.

The difference lies with two things: Hispanics and ski resorts. Areas of rural Colorado with high numbers of Hispanics and ski resorts vote solidly Democratic; areas with low numbers vote solidly Republican. Swing counties generally have enough Hispanics or ski resorts to be competitive for Democrats, but not enough to automatically vote Democratic.

Interestingly, the rural swing counties with ski resorts have become more Democratic over the years, while the rural swing counties with Hispanics have become less so. Mr. Obama generally did worse in rural Hispanic Colorado than Mr. Clinton. Whether because the Hispanic population is locally in decline in this thinly populated area, or because Hispanics are voting more Republican, is uncertain.

The second part of swing Colorado consists of a set of three suburban counties  surrounding the Denver metropolis. These counties used to vote solidly Republican, which was why Colorado was Republican for so long. Here is how they voted in the 2000 presidential election:

The counties – Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, and Larimar County – are pictured by the three large red circles around Denver and Boulder. As is apparent, their importance is of a magnitude above that of the rural swing counties. Indeed, in 2008 the three counties composed 30.8% of the votes cast in Colorado. Jefferson County had more votes cast than any other county in the entire state.

Winning these suburbs, therefore, is naturally important. Until recently they generally leaned Republican. As swing areas, Republicans usually didn’t win them by landslides; they generally had a ceiling of around 65% of the vote. But they won them, and therefore they won Colorado.

It is the shift in places like these that is responsible for recent Democratic gains in Colorado. Here is how swing Colorado voted in 2008:

Mr. Obama won Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, and Larimer County by 12.91%, 8.91%, and 9.73% respectively. Combined, he came out with a 77,067 vote margin out of swing Colorado. This was enough to erase the Senator John McCain’s margins in his two strongest counties – El Paso (Colorado Springs) and Douglas Counties. Mr. Obama also did this out of historically Republican territory.

Demographically, the three counties above share certain similarities. For suburbs, they are actually not that rich; median household income is only slightly above the national average (Jefferson County is richest). The counties are also fairly homogeneous; approximately four out of five residents in Jefferson and Larimer County are white and non-Hispanic. Arapahoe County, on the other hand, is more diverse; non-Hispanic whites compose about 65% of the population (a mirror of the country, in fact). Unsurprisingly, Mr. Obama did best in Arapahoe County.

To be fair, Mr. Obama’s performance in Colorado’s formerly Republican-leaning suburbs probably constitutes something of a ceiling for Democrats. Mr. Obama did extremely well in exurbs like these throughout the nation, in both the primaries and the general election. The housing crisis did not hurt things, either. A different Democrat might rely less on these suburbs.

Nevertheless, the very fact that a Democrat can now win places like Larimer County is something of an achievement for the party. Indeed, almost all of swing Colorado constitutes formerly Republican-leaning territory that Democrats have made competitive over the past two decades. Democrats have also carved out a new and many-sided base in Colorado during this time period. The next post will examine the complex elements that make up Colorado’s Democratic base. will examine the complex elements that make up Colorado’s Democratic base.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

OK, OK, here’s what I know you’ve been waiting for. I teased some of these last month, but now you can see my full Senate and Assembly reports after the flip.

I only listed competitive races below, as the rest probably won’t see too much actions. Click here for Nevada Legislative Districts, here for the latest voter registration statistics from the Nevada Secretary of State, here for a list of the candidates in Washoe County, and here for a list of candidates in Clark County.

Key:

County District Number: Which county the district is based in

(Area: Neighborhood): self explanatory

Incumbent: who’s in office now (if someone’s retiring, I list it as “Open Seat”)

atdleft’s Impartial Rating: how I rank this race, based on voter registration statistics, quality of the candidates, who won where when, and who’s organizing where right now

And I rank the races from highest to lowest on likelihood of flipping.

Senate:

Overall Rating: Likely Democratic Retention

Republicans have been hoping to retake the Legislature, but the numbers just don’t agree with them in either house. The Senate seems to be the more vulnerable chamber for Democrats, but they’ve worked hard to recruit solid candidates and put together a stellar field operation. While there were plenty of jitters at first over how major weakness at the top of the ticket could hurt, it now looks like the state party’s field efforts for Harry Reid and Dina Titus may turn out to help a number of candidates down the ballot. And Republicans’ lack of field campaigning and abundance of controversial candidates only add to their woes.

Clark District 8 (Las Vegas: Summerlin)

Incumbent: Barbara Cegavske (R)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Tossup/Tilts Republican

Cegavske must be thanking her lucky stars that she’s running this year instead of 2008. Next door in District 6, long time GOP stalwart Bob Beers famously lost to political neophyte/local business owner Alison Copening over his polarizing hard-core conservatism and not realizing Obama’s campaign drove Nevada Democrats into overdrive. But even though 2010 may not be as scary of a cycle for Republicans this year, Cegavske still must deal with her own polarizing hard-core conservatism in a district where Democrats have a slight 0.9% registration edge. And Democrats got an all star recruit of a candidate with legal maven Tammy Peterson. And with Harry Reid and Dina Titus both counting on the party to pump up Democratic turnout for them, th GOP can’t count on an “enthusiasm gap” to save Cegavske (but maybe a “voting gap” if some Dems undervote).

Clark District 9 (Las Vegas: Summerlin/Mountain’s Edge/Southern Highlands/Primm)

Open (R) Seat

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Tossup/Tilts Democratic

This is probably the Democrats’ best chance of a Senate pickup this year. Incumbent moderate Republican Dennis Nolan was “tea partied” out by a primary challenge by super neophyte 27 year old no-name secretary “office manager” and teabagger darling Elizabeth Halseth. So all of a sudden, what had been a likely GOP hold is now fully in play and a young newcomer by the name of Benny Yerushalmi all of a sudden has a great chance at joining “The Gang of 63”. This will definitely be a hard fought race until the very end, but Benny does have the advantage of a 2.4% Dem registration edge and a strong Dem field operation.

Clark District 12 (Mesquite/Henderson/Boulder City/Laughlin)

Open (R) Seat

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Republican

This is without a doubt the most stretched district, bordering Arizona all the way from Mesquite to Laughlin! And there are plenty of rural areas here that strongly favor Republicans, so Assembly Member Joe “Doc” Hardy (R-Boulder City) has a natural advantage here. However this district also contains many Vegas suburbs, from Henderson’s fringes to North Las Vegas’ Aliante master planned community, so all in all the GOP only has a slight 1.2% registration edge here AND Obama carried this district in 2008. Plus, Democrats recruited a top-notch legal eagle Aaron Ford to run here. Still, Ford has to deal with Hardy’s entrenched status in Boulder City and the rurals’ seething hatred of all things Reid and Titus. But if the Dem Machine can whip out enough Reid & Titus voters in this district to keep voting down the ballot, Ford may have a chance.

Clark District 5 (Henderson/Las Vegas: Green Valley, MacDonald Ranch, Old Henderson, Silverado Ranch)

Incumbent: Joyce Woodhouse (D)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Democratic

This is the one Senate race where Democrats have to play defense. The Republicans are pouring money into attacking Woodhouse as a “loony liberal” in this closely divided suburban district (Dems have about a 1.3% registration advantage) and promoting slick lawyer Michael Roberson. One would think Joyce would be a goner in this type of environment, but she has a few trump cards to play here. Dems have a far better field operation than the GOP, Joyce has a good reputation as a “grassroots person” and a long time teacher, and Roberson has what may be the ugliest skeleton to hide in the closet this campaign cycle (he’s worked on kicking homeowners out of foreclosed homes). This won’t be easy, but Woodhouse most certainly has a path to victory here.

Washoe District 2 (Sparks/Pyramid Lake)

Open (R) Seat

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Republican

Again, the GOP lucked out with this seat. If perennial religious right bomb thrower Maurice Washington had faced reelection in 2008, he would have likely lost in this closely divided district that spans from the Reno suburbs to the California and Oregon borders. (Republicans only have a 2.2% registration edge here.) But because Washington is termed out and the seat is open this year, they may get a reprieve. Still, they may not be completely out of the woods yet. Democrats recruited yet another star candidate in nonprofit consultant Allison Edwards, but GOP Assembly Member Don Gustavson (R-Sparks) probably still has the advantage here.

Assembly:

Overall Rating: Safe Democratic Retention

Let’s be real. Republicans need to pick up eight seats to take control of the Assembly. That just isn’t happening. There just aren’t enough seats in play for them, and there are even a handful of seats where they have to play defense. The best they can hope for is denying Democrats a 2/3 supermajority, but not even that is a given for them.

Washoe District 40 (Carson City/Rural Washoe)

Open (D) Seat

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Tossup/Tilts Republican

Ironically enough, the race that could really tip the scale in Carson City happens to be IN Carson City! But unfortunately for Democrats, this is a seat that could cost them the 2/3 supermajority they just reached in The Assembly. Incumbent Bonnie Parnell announced late last year that she would not seek another term, so Democrats scrambled to figure out how to possibly hold this seat that usually isn’t too Dem friendly. (The GOP has a somewhat hefty 8.5% registration edge here.) Fortunately, Democrats found a top-notch candidate in Carson City Supervisor Robin Williamson. Unfortunately, the GOP tapped into the same pool in recruiting fellow Carson City Supervisor Pete Livermore to run. This could be a real barn burner of a race, with Livermore benefitting from the natural Republican lean of this district. However, don’t forget that this district also has a high concentration of state workers, so union and environmentalist mobilization for Williamson may yet keep this seat in Dem hands.

Clark District 13 (Las Vegas: Centennial Hills, Summerlin)

Open (R) Seat

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Tossup/Tilts Democratic

In 2008, incumbent Republican Chad Christensen came shockingly close to losing this long GOP held seat to Democrat Andrew Martin, a candidate who worked quite hard but didn’t get too much party support. However in 2010, Democrats aren’t making the same mistake. They’re all in for Building Trades (union) trainer Lou DeSalvio. Still, Republicans aren’t giving this up without a fight, and they’ve recruited UNLV Political Science Professor Scott Hammond to be their fighter. This should be another hard fought race, but Democrats do have the advantage of a slight 1.6% registration edge and a mobilized turnout operation (for Harry Reid and Dina Titus that may also help lift DeSalvio to victory).

Clark District 21 (Henderson: Green Valley, MacDonald Ranch)

Incumbent: Ellen Spiegel (D)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Democratic

In 2008, everyone was shocked when Republicans lost this long-time GOP stronghold to web-based small business owner Ellen Spiegel. Now NO ONE has held this seat for more than one term (Republicans kept primary-ing each other!), but funny enough a Democrat is now looking to break “The One Term Wonder Curse” of AD 21. Now usually in a year like this Spiegel would be hopeless, but she’s built a surprisingly good field operation and earned the endorsements of both the Las Vegas AND Henderson Chambers of Commerce, which usually do NOT endorse Democrats. And unfortunately for the GOP, this year’s primary was quite tumultuous and Mark Sherwood, who emerged victorious in the primary, has alienated both moderates with his religious right fervor and some local “Tea Party” groups by not signing their anti-tax pledge. If it weren’t for the Republicans’ 2.4% registration edge in this district, they’d have to completely write off this seat. But as it is, they have a real uphill battle to reclaim it.

Clark District 23 (Henderson: Old Henderson)

Incumbent: Melissa Woodbury (R)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Republican

In some ways, AD 23 is AD 21 in reverse. This was the seat of Former Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins (D). Democrats simply didn’t expect to lose this seat in 2008, but lose it they did… And to local educator Melissa Woodbury, daughter of legendary Clark County Supervisor Bruce Woodbury (R). It was probably the Dems’ biggest mistake of 2008, and it looks like they may be repeating it by backing Monica Lejia Bean, a candidate who’s hardly visible at all. Woodbury looks to have lucked out, but she’s not out of the woods yet… Not when there’s an 8.8% Dem registration edge AND major Democratic and union GOTV operations working against her. But if she could get some Obama ticket-splitters in 2008, she may very well get enough Reid/Titus ticket-splitters in 2010 to keep her in office.

Clark District 29 (Henderson: Green Valley, Whitney Ranch)

Incumbent: April Mastroluca (D)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Democratic

In 2008, the GOP finally lost this seat, which has been trending away from them for some time. And while Freshman Dem April Mastroluca at times doesn’t seem to be the strongest campaigner, she most certainly benefits from a very strong Democratic field operation, plenty of union support, and a comfy 5.3% Dem registration edge. Openly gay Republican challenger Dan Hill flew under the radar in the primary, but he can’t expect to keep doing so in the general. (I have a feeling Sharron Angle won’t be doing him any favors any time soon…)

Clark District 22 (Henderson/Las Vegas: Black Mountain, MacDonald Ranch, Anthem, Southern Highlands, Mountain’s Edge)

Incumbent: Lynn Stewart (R)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Republican

Lynn Stewart really lucked out in 2008. No Democrat emerged to challenge him, so he coasted to reelection while other GOP incumbents fell. And this year, he looks to have lucked out again. Local “Tea Party” groups didn’t find him “conservative enough”, so they waged a primary coup against him… But problem was, so many candidates filed against Stewart that he was able to win the GOP Primary with 47%. But this time, several Democrats did file and soon-to-open Cosmopolitan Casino accountant Kevinn Donovan emerged out of the primary. Still, even with the state Democratic Party organizing hard for the top of the ticket here, Donovan nonetheless has a major uphill battle against Stewart.

Washoe District 30 (Reno/Sparks)

Incumbent: Debbie Smith (D)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Likely Democratic

Debbie Smith has certainly had her ups and downs. A few years back, she lost her race here… But she came back and she had an easy ride in 2008 with “The Obama Wave”. But this time around, Republicans are targeting her yet again, and even Sharron Angle has personally endorsed her opponent, Kathy Martin. However the Reno/Sparks Chamber of Commerce, which usually doesn’t endorse Democrats, endorsed Smith, mainly because she stands to Chair the nearly omnipotent Appropriations Committee and provide plenty more “juice” for Northern Nevada if she wins reelection. And with a whopping 16.3% Democratic registration advantage here, Smith may have all that she needs to weather the storm this time.