Month: January 2011

All of a sudden, we seem to have an answer on when that mysterious special election for West Virginia Governor (to replace the resigned Joe Manchin) will be. It’ll be this November, according to the state Supreme Court.

West Virginia will hold a special election for governor by Nov. 15, or within one year of when state Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin began acting as chief executive, according to a ruling Tuesday by the state Supreme Court in the resulting legal dispute.

Tomblin had concluded that the West Virginia Constitution and state law did not set the next vote for the governor’s office until 2012. Tuesday’s ruling sides with the West Virginia Citizen Action Group and lawyer Thornton Cooper, who challenged Tomblin’s stance….

The Supreme Court said a new statewide election “shall be held as soon as practicable” whenever a vacancy in the governor’s office occurs before the first three years of the term have expired.

I can’t tell if this is truly the last word in the matter or if there’s any wiggle room left for Earl Ray Tomblin (the acting Gov., who had been the main voice agitating to push the election back until 2012)… but this looks pretty conclusive, bringing this strange period of uncertainty to an end.

• IN-Sen: The usually low-key Richard Lugar, all of a sudden, seems intent on reminding everyone in the press who’ll listen that he isn’t dead yet. Lugar says he isn’t sure how seriously to take the threat from the tea partiers since there’s no declared opponent yet, but he’s moving full speed ahead on fundraising, with a Friday event set with a $320K target.

• MA-Sen: I know that our comments section isn’t representative of the Democratic primary electorate in Massachusetts, but Bob Massie’s unexpected campaign rollout over the weekend, and his uniquely compelling personal story, seemed to get an overwhelmingly positive response here. Here’s another, and more in-depth, profile of the first Democrat to get into the race against Scott Brown.

• TX-Sen: San Antonio mayor Julian Castro is the latest Democrat to pass on the Senate contest, in the wake of Kay Bailey Hutchison’s retirement announcement. The up-and-comer says he “has no intention” of running in 2012 (which, I suppose, leaves open the possibility that he might find himself unintentionally running?).

• UT-Sen: Here’s kind of a strange poll in Utah, seeing as how it’s tests of configurations that I can’t ever see happening… and, in the case of the 2012 GOP Senate field, it’s not even a sample of the people who’ll be making the actual decision (given the Utah GOP’s heavy reliance on the convention). In fact, the GOP primary question is asked of all Utah voters. At any rate, local pollsters (here on behalf of Utah Policy, rather than usual client the Deseret News) Dan Jones find ex-Gov. and current Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman in the lead in a GOP primary, beating Rep. Jason Chaffetz and incumbent Orrin Hatch 48-23-21. I haven’t heard anything about Hunstman running, at least not for Senate, and there’s no Chaffetz/Hatch head-to-head polled. They also find that Hatch would win a general election against Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson (in the odd event that, a) Hatch would survive the convention, and b) Matheson would give up his House seat for a suicide run), 48-41.

• VA-Sen: This statement from ex-Gov./DNC chair Tim Kaine is simultaneously worrisome and reassuring: he says he won’t run for Senate, even if Jim Webb retires, problematic since he’s the Dems’ other top-tier candidate here besides Webb. On the other hand, he says that he has no reason to believe that Webb is planning anything other than re-election (although he doesn’t give any specifics on why he thinks that). Meanwhile, Jamie Radtke is already getting out in front of George Allen in the wake of reports that Allen is about to announce his bid. She challenged Allen to a series of debates, and rolled out an endorsement from RedState’s Erick Erickson. Allen didn’t respond, although he announced his own series of town hall events (presumably solo) through Americans for Prosperity.

• WV-Gov: Former Republican SoS and current gubernatorial candidate Betty Ireland seems to have some insider knowledge that nobody else does: she’s saying that she wouldn’t be running if Rep. Shelley Moore Capito was, and that she had spoken with Capito to get confirmation on that. There was no comment on that from Capito’s camp.

• AZ-08: There was much ado about nothing yesterday with brief blogospheric panic over an obscure Arizona state law that says that an elected official can be removed from office, via a declared vacancy, if she doesn’t execute her duties within a 90 day period. Turns out that applies only to state and local officials, and even if it didn’t, applying it to a federal official wouldn’t likely pass constitutional muster (in the same way that state term limits and recall laws don’t apply to House members).

• CA-49: With Rep. Darrell Issa about to take over the reins of the House Oversight committee, this long and remarkably thorough piece from the New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza is today’s must-read, if you haven’t already seen it. It revisits various episodes in his checkered past, but presents an interesting, complicated picture of him.

• KY-AG: Even though he’s just dodged bids by his two most potentially serious rivals (SoS Trey Grayson and former state Supreme Ct. chief justice Joseph Lambert), now there are local rumors bubbling up that Democratic incumbent AG (and probably still a rising star) Jack Conway may not seek a second term. State Rep. John Tilley, state Sen. Ray Jones, and former state Dem chair Jennifer Moore have started talking themselves up for the job. While Conway publicly has said he intends to run again, Tilley says Conway has told him he hasn’t made a decision yet.

• Chicago mayor: Big Dog alert! Bill Clinton will be appearing in Chicago on behalf of former right-hand man Rahm Emanuel and his bid for Chicago mayor. (Also reportedly appearing: SNL star and Emanuel impersonator Andy Samberg.) Carol Mosely Braun’s take? “One outsider coming in to support another outsider.”

• Enthuasiam gap: Hooray! We’ve all been saved! PPP has officially declared that the “enthusiasm gap” is over. OK, I’m being facetious and it’s not that simple, but PPP finds that 85% of Democrats and 82% of Republicans are “very excited” or “somewhat excited” about voting in 2012, suggesting that young people and minority voters might actually get off their duffs and vote if there’s a president on the ballot. (In fact, the highest report of “very exciteds” is among African-Americans, at 71%.) Democrats were killed in 2010 by a high disparity in “not exciteds,” but currently only 16% of Dems and 18% of GOPers are in that condition, suggesting turnout parity.  

Last week, I looked at why a 12-6 Republican map was most likely.  This week, I’ll take a look at the converse – a 12-6 Democratic map.  

Although a pretty heavily Democratic state, it is hard to create enough safe seats for Democrats in Pennsylvania.  The reason is most Democratic votes are concentrated in Philadelphia.  Under the strictest interpretation of the VRA, it may be required to keep PA-1 majority-minority, and PA-2 majority black.

For Pennsylvania, I’d argue that a safe Democratic seat needs a PVI of D+5.  This is because the Republicans have been successful at holding down one D+4 seat all decade.  It was hard to draw all the eastern suburban districts to meet D+5 and maintain the two Philadelphia districts as listed above, but after some work, I came up with a good map. Two democratic districts have a lower PVI than this because they are outside of the region, but are as Democratic as the situation allowed.

I didn’t pay particular attention to the location of Democratic incumbents, quite honestly.  This map opens a lot of opportunities for Democrats, which I think outweighs any potential issues.  

Details below

PA-1

Majority-Minority (46% white – forgot to write down non-white breakdown)

76% Obama, 24% McCain (D+22)

This district swings dramatically to the North, taking in somewhat swingy parts of northeast, and with an arm going into Bucks county to take in some Republican-leaning suburbs.  Bob Brady doesn’t live here.  

PA-2

Majority black (51%)

87% Obama, 13% McCain (D+33)

The district becomes based in south Philadelphia, and takes in some more Republican-leaning areas of the city.  It’s still pretty Democratic however.  Unfortunately, there are no lily-white highly Republican areas nearby I could have swapped in.  

PA-3

58% Obama, 42% McCain (D+4)

One ugly district which draws in all the Democratic areas in the northwest and central portions of the state (State College, Johnstown, Erie, New Castle, Hermitage, etc).  This was the best PVI that could be managed for the district without poaching on PA-14 to some degree (which I wanted to avoid).  It should still elect a Democrat comfortably, given the PVI is calculated by Obama votes only, and he actually underperformed Kerry in certain parts of the district.  That said, given the rightward drift of much of the region, I wouldn’t be surprised if the PVI becomes closer by the end of the decade.  Still, Erie and State College are not turning to the right, so it’s hard to see the PVI slipping to less than even.  Call it a Lean D seat.  

PA-4

59% McCain, 41% Obama (R+13)

This is the first of the Republican voter sinks, drawing in most of the Republican areas in metro Pittsburgh.  Technically, Jason Altmire is the incumbent here, but he might want to move to PA-14 (which is now vacant) which should be a safe seat for him.  No Republican congressmen lives in the district, but it has a good deal of Tim Murphy’s old district, so he may decide to relocate.  

PA-5

60% McCain, 40% Obama (R+14)

This district absorbs Republican votes across a huge swath of Western Pennsylvania.  Mike Kelly lives here (barely), and he’d be wise to run for this seat.  

PA-6

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

The district is made more Democratic by a hair than Jim Gerlach’s old district.  While it might not defeat him immediately, given the trends of the region, along with the close elections he faced in 2004 and 2006, he should lose the seat within two or three election cycles.  

PA-7

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

The district draws in Democratic and heavily-black areas like Chester and Yeadon.  Joe Pitts lives here, but it is much less Republican than his old district, so he will likely be forced into retirement.  Pat Meehan lives just outside of the district now, in PA-6.  Given he’s a freshmen and dealing with a bigger swing than Gerlach, I’d say he’ll lose the seat immediately if he ran.    

PA-8

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

The district is made more Democratic by including some heavily-Democratic parts of Cheltenham and north Philadelphia.  Mike Fitzpatrick’s days are numbered.  

PA-9

63% McCain, 37% Obama (R+17)

Republican vote dump for the central Pennsylvania.  Bill Schuster is welcome to this seat.  

PA-10

58% McCain, 42% Obama (R+12)

This is the least Republican of their six planned seats, mainly because the eastern half of the district is pretty uniformly only narrowly Republican.  Still, it’s a boost for Tom Marino, or Lou Barletta – whoever wins the primary.  

PA-11

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

This district sheds much of the Wilkes-Barre area and instead takes on most of Northampton County, spitting Charlie Dent’s base in half.  It should be a safe district for the right sort of Democrat.  

PA-12

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

The district is somewhat reconfigured.  It continues to contain the more heavily-Democratic areas of rural southwestern PA down the mon valley, but also picks up Pittsburgh’s eastern suburbs, along with a few neighborhoods of Pittsburgh itself.  Mike Doyle lives here, so I’m guessing he runs for this district rather than PA-14, which is only marginally more Democratic.  

PA-13

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

Allyson Schwartz’s district becomes a little less Democratic, and becomes more exclusively focused on Montgomery county.  She should hold down the slightly more swingy district with little trouble.  

PA-14

61% Obama, 39% McCain (D+7)

The new PA-14 still contains most of Pittsburgh, but draws in swingy and Republican suburbs in the South Hills, and Democratic areas in Beaver County.  I resisted attempting to even the PVI of this and PA-12 to D+6, because there was no way to do so without putting even more of Pittsburgh into the 12th, to minimal effect.  No incumbent, but Jason Altmire would be smart to relocate here, and immediately position himself to the left.  

PA-15

59% Obama, 41% McCain (D+5)

Charlie Dent loses over half his base, gets a slightly more Democratic district, and gets Tim Holden (and a fair portion of his old base) drawn into it.  He’s toast.  

PA-16

55% Obama, 45% McCain (D+1)

All of the most democratic parts of York, Lancaster, and Dauphin counties are drawn into one district.  The PVI is close enough there is no guarantee that the district will elect a Democrat.  Indeed, PA-19’s Todd Russel Platts (who lives in York), is somewhat moderate and a good fit for the district ideologically).  The district will only be getting bluer however, as minority immigration to York and Lancaster has been quite high.  Thus it should be safely Democratic by the end of the decade – or sooner if an open seat.  

PA-17

61% McCain, 39% Obama (R+15)

An open Republican seat consisting of mainly the northern reaches of Pennsylvania Dutch Country and some mountains.  The bulk of the district was actually represented by Tim Holden previously, and not only does no Republican incumbent live there, but none even represented a large portion.  I’m unsure who would choose to run here.  

PA-18

63% McCain, 37% Obama (R+17)

The remainder of Pennsylvania Dutch country.  Again, there is no Republican incumbent, although theoretically both Joe Pitts and Todd Russel Platts may show some interest in the district.

Later, I’ll show my compact redistricting plan for the state.  Thoughts?    

Another morning jolt:

Democrat Susan Bysiewicz is running for the U.S. Senate seat held by longtime incumbent Joseph Lieberman – almost two years before the 2012 election.

Bysiewicz announced her intentions Tuesday morning in an e-mail that was sent to reporters.

“We need a senator who is 100 percent focused on helping our state, and Senator Joe Lieberman has been focused on everything but Connecticut,” Bysiewicz said in a statement. “I will only work for the people of Connecticut so we can create jobs that keep our children and grandchildren here in Connecticut for generations to come.”

Bysiewicz’s entry — assuming she actually stays in the race — could force a competitive Democratic primary between her and Rep. Chris Murphy, who has made every indication that he’s interested in the race.

UPDATE: Bysiewicz is coming armed with an internal poll, too. The poll from Bennet Petts Normington (from December 13-16, of registered voters) gives her a lead in both the primary and the general, suggesting she hasn’t been too badly harmed by a year’s worth of public ooopsies. She leads Chris Murphy in a Dem primary 46-37, and if there’s a three-way also involving Ted Kennedy Jr., she leads that 33-26-26. In a general that’s Bysiewicz, Joe Lieberman, and Linda McMahon, she leads 34-30-28. She also leads a Bysiewicz/Lieberman/Tom Foley race 33-29-27, and leads a two-way race against Linda McMahon 54-36.

Also, Chris Murphy doesn’t seem to be backing down; his post-Bysiewicz statement is the most candidate-ish thing today we’ve heard out of him yet:

However, Bysiewicz’s announcement Tuesday prompted Murphy to send out this statement: “My interest in running for Senate in 2012 is well known in the state, and I expect to announce my decision very soon. All I can say now is that this is going to be a pretty busy few weeks.”

UPDATE: Apparently tomorrow we’ll know what Joe Lieberman’s plans are for 2012. An announcement at a press conference is scheduled, although there’s no suggestion yet what’s being announced.

UPDATE 3: A few hours later, we are getting multiple reports that Lieberman’s announcement tomorrow will be that he will retire.

Ugh, really?

North Dakota Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad announced today that he will not seek reelection, creating a potentially prime pickup opportunity for Republicans in a GOP-leaning state.

“After months of consideration, I have decided not to seek reelection in 2012,” Conrad said in a statement. “There are serious challenges facing our State and nation, like a $14 trillion debt and America’s dependence on foreign oil. It is more important I spend my time and energy trying to solve these problems than to be distracted by a campaign for reelection.”

Not the way I’d like to see this cycle start!

UPDATE: Roll Call has some more insights into Conrad’s motivations, and possible Democratic successors:

Sources close to the Democrat told Roll Call Conrad made a final decision over the holidays and that it was for personal reasons, not political. After 26 years in the Senate by the end of his current term, the Budget Committee chairman will be ready for new challenges, the sources said….

But the early decision gives the party plenty of time to find a top-tier candidate to run in his place. Former Rep. Earl Pomeroy’s name has already been floated as a potential candidate, though Pomeroy and former Chief of Staff Bob Siggins recently joined Alston & Bird to work on the firm’s health care team.

UPDATE 2: No, actually, Pomeroy’s not sounding like a candidate, according to his just-posted comments at Politico Arena (though optimists might point out it’s not quite a Sherman-esque statement):

I’m about two weeks into a new job. I’ve changed course and I’m not looking back.

The Hill has more extensive lists of potential other candidates for the Dems:

The strategist listed former Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.), former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) and her brother, broadcaster Joel Heitkamp, as possible candidates….

On the Democratic side, state Senate Minority Leader Ryan Taylor is considered a contender for statewide office, and state Rep. Corey Mock, who ran for secretary of state last year, is also being mentioned as a possible candidate….

This is a quick attempt at South Carolina with 7 seats and 2 Minority Majority districts.

SSPers speculated that there should be a second VRA seat in South Carolina, as there is a substantial black population. Personally I do not think South Carolina should have gotten another seat, the data on Daves App shows South Carolina at 4.5 Million or so, and 2010 Census showed it at 4.6 M or 663,710 per district. I however feel that as long as the US House stays with 435 seats and the size of each constituency rises with each census apportionment, the utility of VRA seats are going to collapse onto themselves.

We see instances like Mel Watt (NC), Corrine Brown (FL), and Sanford Bishop (GA) that getting 50% of their districts Black is a hard order when trying to make a district that has at best moderate gerrymandering.

South Carolina has a large African American population 30% in the 2000 Census; however the population is way too spread out to make a coherent congressional district within a state. As seen here

And my map seen here

It just is too agressive to get a 50% district and a 49% district. Also notice that the 4th district (yellow) is just barely contiguous. This gerrymander will only see Clyburn, Scott and Dowdy  keep their seats I believe. It does really put Joe Wilson into a very strange district.

• FL-Sen: State sen. President Mike Haridopolos already has a key endorser in his column for the likely-to-be-hotly-contested GOP Senate primary: former state party chair John Thrasher. Of course, Thrasher (the former state Sen. president, and who also just got appointed Rules Comm. chair by Haridopolos) and Haridopolos are tight from the state Senate, so it may not be a big surprise. Meanwhile, it seems like the Republican field may have its own Jeff Greene-type candidate, i.e. some guy with a lot of money and a senatorial itch to scratch but no credible reason to run for office: Nicholas Loeb. Loeb, who’s 35, is the great-grandson of one of the original Lehman Brothers and the son of a Ronald Reagan’s ambassador to Denmark, once ran briefly for a Florida state Senate seat but dropped out amidst a divorce from his wife. Loeb may currently be best-known as boyfriend to TV star Sofia Vergara.

• IN-Sen: Richard Lugar is saying he’s preparing (in the form of ramped-up fundraising operations) for what, at this point, is the inevitable: a challenge from the right. Nevertheless, despite his imminent teabagging, he’s doubling-down on his reasonableness, this time with statements in favor of restoring the ban on assault weapons. And here’s an ironic blast from the past that really puts the increase in partisanship by Senate Republicans over the years into perspective: in 1977, as a freshman, Richard Lugar was deemed by CQ as having the highest party unity score of any Republican. At this point, only five GOPers are less loyal.

• MA-Sen: Democrats seem to have their first “real” candidate announcing his presence in the Senate race, although I haven’t heard his name before and have to wonder whether he’ll turn into a credible presence here. Bob Massie was the 1994 candidate for Lt. Governor, but he’s better known for his entrepreneurial work, which includes investing in a fair amount of socially conscious stuff. He also has quite the interesting resume: Episcopal priest with a Harvard Business Ph.D who also happens to be one of the longest-surviving HIV patients ever.

• MO-Sen: There’s one potentially interesting story for the Missouri Senate race that comes out of Friday’s RNC chair election (won by Wisconsin’s Reince Priebus): one of the losers was Ann Wagner, who had initially expressed some interest in running for Senate but then threw her hat in the RNC ring. Her loss frees her up to think about the Senate again, although there’s no comment from her camp on that beyond “Stay tuned.”

• ND-Sen: PSC Commissioner Brian Kalk’s early start on seeking the GOP nomination in North Dakota seems to have just had the effect of painting a big target on his back. State House majority leader Al Carlson (whom I haven’t seen mentioned as a candidate before, and may be kneecapping Kalk on someone else’s behalf) says Kalk’s attempts to scare everybody else off won’t work. Gary Emineth, the former state GOP chair, also seems unimpressed, even floating his own name for the race.

• PA-Sen: On Friday we mentioned that Mark Schweiker’s decision to become a lobbyist betrayed a pretty clear intent not to run for Senate, and over the weekend Schweiker confirmed that he’s not looking at the race. The Republican ex-Gov says the race “was never in the cards.”

• TX-Sen: Two more heavyweights definitely seem moving toward the GOP gubernatorial battle. Dallas mayor Tom Leppert confirmed what everyone has expected for the last week: that he won’t run for a second term (while he didn’t specifically say he’d run for Sen., this certainly points that way). Leppert, who seems to occupy the most moderate position in the field, would have a good shot at following the Rick Snyder/Bill Haslam path against a field chock full o’ nuts if there weren’t the little matter of Texas having runoffs, which would force him into a one-on-one with a fire-breather. Speaking of which, Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams has now confirmed that he’ll run, and he’s resigning from his state post in order to campaign full-time for Senate. The other, less tea-flavored Williams — Roger Williams, the former SoS who’s also a big-name car dealer and the self-proclaimed big business candidate in the race — has already nailed down a name-brand endorser (although not one likely to help him much with today’s flavor of conservatives, especially given how useful his endorsement of Kay Bailey Hutchison was in the 2010 gubernatorial primary): George H.W. Bush.

Meanwhile, here’s a strange possibility: septuagenarian goldbug Ron Paul may actually be interested in making the race (and thus joining his son in the Senate). At least he’s polling visitors to RonPaul.com on whether he should run. (Um, maybe someone should familiarize him with the concept of self-selection bias?) And finally, here’s a list of the recently-declared no-thankses: state Senator Florence Shapiro on the GOP side, and state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte and Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia on the Dem side.

• WY-Sen: Back when we did our Teabagger Cattle Call last month, we easily stipulated that John Barrasso, one of the most conservative members of the Senate, was the least likely incumbent up in 2012 to get teabagged. Nevertheless, buried in this article on Sal Russo’s plans for the Tea Party Express, is an astonishing line that, if true, is indicative of just how mindless the orgy of uncritical own-eating has become on the GOP’s far-right:

Democrats still control the Senate and White House, he noted in an interview from Wyoming, where he was visiting potential Senate candidates for 2012.

(H/t to Brian Valco for the catch.)

• ME-Gov: Paul LePage seems to fancy himself a Chris Christie-type in the making, figuring he might survive his blue-leaning state by endearing himself to independents through a lot of everyman-style blustering and sacred cow-punching. He seems to have gotten off to a complete fail of a start, though, with Friday’s comments telling the NAACP to “kiss my ass” in response to questions about why he wasn’t attending any Martin Luther King Day celebrations. Rather than trying to own that, though, LePage seems to have already backed down, slinking unannounced into Waterville’s MLK Day breakfast after all.

• MS-Gov: If you’ve ever wanted to see teabagging in its purest, most undistilled form, look no further than the just-announced candidacy of state revenue department “employee” James Broadwater for the GOP gubernatorial primary. His two main action items: eliminating all taxes other than sales tax, and using the state National Guard to enforce immigration laws.

• NY-Gov: Siena has a new poll of New York state out that shows the state’s famously cantankerous residents’ views about nearly everything improving, whether it be the President, the legislature, or race relations. The most eye-popping numbers are those of new Gov. Andrew Cuomo, still in the honeymoon period but for now with a deity-like 70/17 approval.

• MO-05: With the likelihood that the 5th will have to take on more Republican voters in the face of Missouri losing one of its nine House seats (since Kansas City is surrounded by red exurbs and rural counties in each direction, there’s really no other way to play it), it’s sounding like Emanuel Cleaver might face a stronger challenge than he’s used to in 2012. Republican former state Sen. Bill Kenney is scoping out the race, assuming that the currently D+10 district will become somewhat less solidly-Dem than before. (Recall that Cleaver’s 2010 victory, against little-known Jacob Turk, was a pretty unconvincing 53-42, although that was against a backdrop of statewide destruction for the Dems.)

• NC-08: Here’s a pretty clear sign that Robin Hayes (the Republican holder of this seat until 2008, and a rumored rematch in the early part of the 2010 cycle) won’t be running in a potentially-friendlier (thanks to GOP-controlled redistricting) 8th in 2012. He’s taking over as head of the North Carolina state GOP organization.

• KY-AG: In his bid for re-election, Democratic AG Jack Conway seems to have dodged his most compelling remaining Republican opponent. Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Joseph Lambert decided not to run against Conway after not being able to secure a leave of absence from the state’s senior judge program (which lets him sit in as a temp judge when needed). With Trey Grayson already backing up his moving van to leave the state, that leaves Hopkins County state attorney Todd P’Pool as the only logical GOP candidate left.

• TX-LG: With David Dewhurst about to move on from his long stint as the state’s #2, a couple other statewide Republicans are already jostling for that position: Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson and Comptroller Susan Combs. (Note that the LG election is in 2014, though, so if Dewhurst wins the 2012 Senate race there will be an appointee already filling that slot who’d have an incumbency advantage… and if Dewhurst loses, he may decide to keep on being LG on to infinity.)

• Mayors: Columbus mayor Michael Coleman, up for re-election in November, already knows who his Republican opponent will be (as apparently the nominee gets picked by the county’s central committee, rather than by primary). He’ll face Earl Smith, a familiar face to voters from his former job as the police department’s spokesman.

With Republicans holding the trifecta in Indiana, I decided to try to eliminate 2 of the current Democratic held house seats. Because the 7th district is represented by a minority and is the closest district to minority-majority in Indiana, I left that district intact.

1st District-Blue-Current Rep: Peter Visclosky (D)

Racial Breakdown: 75 white 13 black 11 Hispanic 1 Asian

New District: McCain: 48 Obama: 51

Old District: McCain: 37 Obama: 62

This new district loses about half of Lake County and picks up several heavily Republican counties in the central part of the state. This district becomes 11 points more Republican, but yes, was still won by Obama. However, I would argue that aside from Illinois, Indiana was the state in which Obama most overperformed, and I would say this district would be won a GOP candidate in most years. New PVI around R+2.

Lake County:

2nd District-Green-Current Rep: Joe Donnelly (D)

Racial Breakdown: 89 white 5 black 5 Hispanic 1 Asian

New District: M: 50 O: 49

Old District: M: 45 O: 54

Joe Donnelly is a goner. By removing South Bend and St. Joseph County from his district and picking up some GOP heavy counties in the central part of the state, this district moves 5 points towards the GOP. New PVI around R+5.

3rd District-Purple-Current Rep: Marlin Stutzman (R)

Racial Breakdown: 83 white 9 black 6 Hispanic 2 Asian

New District: M: 51 O: 48

Old District: M: 56 O: 43

Stutzman can’t be thrilled he has to take up part of St. Joseph county, but his Ft. Wayne based district is still solidly Republican. New PVI around R+6.

4th District-Red- Current Rep: Todd Rokita (R)

Racial Breakdown: 85 white 8 black 5 Hispanic 2 Asian

New District: M: 52 O: 47

Old District: M: 56 O: 43

The new 4th splits Lake County then moves south all the way towards the GOP heavy Indianapolis suburbs. It takes in Dem leaning Tippecanoe county and the college town of West Laffayette, but almost all other territory is heavy Republican. New PVI around R+8.

5th District-Yellow- Current Rep: Dan Burton (R)

Racial Breakdown: 89 white 5 black 3 Hispanic 2 Asian

New District: M: 53 O: 46

Old District: M: 59 O: 40

Dan Burton’s district stays largely the same, except for picking up Dem leaning Madison County. Burton also picks up some swing areas of Marion County, but they are not enough to offset the GOP lean of the rest of this suburban district. New PVI around R+11.

6th District-Turquoise- Current Rep: Mike Pence (R)

Racial Breakdown: 88 white 5 black 6 Hispanic 1 Asian

New District: M: 54 O: 45

Old District: M: 53 O: 46

It may be confusing as to how this district gets more Republican despite picking up some Dem friendly areas of South Bend, however it loses Madison and Delaware counties while stretching down the eastern part of the state to pick up more GOP counties. Not the most compact district, but Pence (or someone else) is safe here. New PVI around R+13.

7th District-Gray- Current Rep: André Carson (D)

Racial Breakdown: 59 white 31 black 8 Hispanic 2 Asian

New District: M: 28 O: 71

Old District: M: 28 O: 71

This district stays almost exactly the same. Centered on Marion County it is the most urban and Dem friendly in the state. Carson is safe. New PVI around D+15.

Indianapolis:

8th District-Light Purple-Current Rep: Larry Bucshon (R)

Racial Breakdown: 93 white 4 black 2 Hispanic 1 Asian

New District: M: 51 O: 47

Old District: M: 51 O: 47

The 8th is very similar to the old 8th. Swingy Evansville and Terry Haute are offset by the GOP leaning counties in between. Bucshon should have no trouble with this district unless Brad Ellsworth runs, in which case Bucshon would still probably be the slight favorite. New PVI around R+8.

9th District-Light Blue- Current Rep: Todd Young (R)

Racial Breakdown: 93 white 2 black 2 Hispanic 2 Asian

Old District: M: 50 O: 49

New District: M: 50 O: 49

The 9th stays almost the same as well. Liberal Bloomington is offset by the rest of the district. Young should be safe here, unless a Dem wave and the perfect Dem candidate align. New PVI around R+6.

So there you have it. Let me know what you think. Comments?

Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (1/3-9, registered voters, no trendlines):

Bob Menendez (D-inc): 44

Tom Kean Jr. (R): 34

Unsure/Neither/Other: 22

Bob Menendez (D-inc): 40

Michael Doherty (R): 30

Unsure/Neither/Other: 30

Bob Menendez (D-inc): 47

Kim Guadagno (R): 26

Unsure/Neither/Other: 27

Bob Menendez (D-inc): 41

Joe Kyrillos (R): 29

Unsure/Neither/Other: 30

Bob Menendez (D-inc): 44

John Crowley (R): 30

Unsure/Neither/Other: 27

Bob Menendez (D-inc): 42

Jennifer Beck (R): 29

Unsure/Neither/Other: 29

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Local pollster Fairleigh Dickinson’s first look at the 2012 Senate race finds Bob Menendez leading his little-known Republican potential rivals by double digits, ranging from margins of 10 (against his 2006 opponent, Tom Kean Jr., and also against state Sen. Michael Doherty, who’s apparently a particular fave to the tea party types) to 19 (against current Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, who may be at a low point right now since most people’s current impression of her involves her being out-of-state during the nor’easter cleanup). FDU doesn’t offer an approval rating for Menendez for some reason, but he’s polling not out of the danger zone, in the mid-40s and, as they point out, his fortunes are probably deeply tied to those of Barack Obama (who’s at 47/41) and those of the broader economy.

Public Policy Polling (1/6-9, New Jersey voters, no trendlines):

Bob Menendez (D-inc): 41

Tom Kean Jr. (R): 39

Undecided: 19

Bob Menendez (D-inc): 47

Lou Dobbs (R): 35

Undecided: 18

Bob Menendez (D-inc): 45

Kim Guadgano (R): 30

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±4.3%)

FDU’s numbers contrast a bit with those from PPP, who find a much closer race between Menendez and Kean (although they find a similar blowout against Guadagno as with FDU). I’d commented a few weeks ago that Menendez’s approval numbers (which are 37/38 in this poll) reminded me a bit of Richard Burr’s at this point two years ago — a surprisingly large number of people don’t know him, and those who do know him feel prety “meh” about him — and I think that’s still the case here. In fact, I’ll predict the whole cycle here may parallel NC-Sen ’10, with polls continuing to show definite incumbent weakness but the state’s lean (plus a likely underfunded opponent) probably giving the incumbent a decent win in the end.

Public Policy Polling (1/6-9, New Jersey voters, no trendlines):

Cory Booker (D): 42

Chris Christie (R-inc): 42

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4.3%)

As a throw-in, PPP also looks at the 2013 gubernatorial race (it’s only two and three-quarters years away!). While if you read only the rightosphere, you’d think that Chris Christie was ready to not only graduate from being governor right now but even to skip that whole Presidency business and move straight on to running for Galactic Emperor, here in the real world, things are a little less clear-cut. The blustery and mass-transit-destroying Christie only manages a tie with Cory Booker, the attention-grabbing Democratic mayor of Newark. Christie’s still above water with 48/45 approvals, but it’s a Dem-leaning state and Booker has nothing but upside at this point with 46/16 favorables.

It’s looking like the GOP’s marquee candidate in Virginia, as expected, is about to enter the race against Jim Webb (or an open seat race, if Webb retires as has been threatened). We don’t have a source beyond Politico’s Mike Allen, but here’s what he knows:

George Allen, the former U.S. senator and Virginia governor, plans to tell supporters within a week that he is mounting a campaign to retake the Senate seat he lost to Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) in 2006. Allen, 58, the most prominent 2012 challenger to announce so far, has begun to line up key staff members.

While a Webb/Allen rematch would be one of the nation’s hottest general election races, there’s still the little matter of the primary election, where Allen already faces tea partier Jamie Radtke and may face a higher profile rival from the right. Former state party chair Jeff Frederick, in a just-released interview, is already promising he won’t back Allen:

He was complicit in all the big government conservatism that came out of the Congress during his years in the Senate, cheerleading for it all and never leading against it. Allen was a go-along member of the GOP majority that lost power because it lost its principles, and he really is the opposite of the ideal candidate for those of us looking for a constitutional, first-principles, non-GOP-status-quo type of candidate.  George Allen is the poster child for the establishment.

For some perspective on that position, Allen’s lifetime ACU rating was 92.6.