Tag: elections

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

What if only white females voted in the 2008 presidential election?

This is the type of question social scientists and individuals like me love to explore, and which everybody else presumably finds quite boring. More fascinating still, there is actually a somewhat reliable answer to the question. This is because, in every state of the union, there are exit polls of the white female vote in 2008.

It turns out that if only white females voted in 2008, Senator John McCain would have won the popular vote 53% to 46%, taking a comfortable eight-point lead.

Senator Barack Obama, however, would be president. He would win a razor-thin, 273 to 265 majority in the electoral college:

More below.

This is quite a remarkable result. Mr. Obama loses by eight percentage  points amongst white female voters – yet still wins the electoral  college and becomes president. Imagine if Senator John McCain lost the real 2008 presidential election by the exact same popular margin and then magically won the electoral college.

This is a graph Nate Silver once compiled of the chances this would happen in the real electorate:

According to the analysis, a four-point margin in the popular vote translates into a one percent chance of losing the electoral college. Notice how the graph does not even go beyond a seven-point popular victory.

So how does Mr. Obama lose so badly amongst white females yet still become president?

Here is the answer:

As it turns out, white female supporters of Mr. McCain are distributed very inefficiently. They are packed in states the Republican is already winning, especially in the racially polarized Deep South – where Mr. McCain does so well it is quite amazing and sad.

The Democratic white female vote, while not as numerous, is far more efficiently placed. Democrats win white females where it matters – in thin but strategically located margins in enough states to win the electoral college.

This fact can be illustrated visually:

The map above constitutes the 2008 white female vote, except this time  differentiated by margin of victory. Except in a few parts of New England, Democrats never win white females by margins greater than 20%.

Finally, this analysis also illustrates the continuing racial divide confronting the United States. More than a century after slavery and fifty years after Civil Rights, in too many parts of the country one can tell far too much – about voting habits or other behavior – just by looking at skin color.

P.S. For those interested, here is a full of table of the white female vote in 2008, by each state’s exit polling.

This is the last part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state Pennsylvania. The previous parts can be found here.

Conclusions

For many decades, Pennsylvania constituted model of Democratic strength based upon working-class votes. Today that is changing, especially in the southwest. For the moment, nevertheless, the swing state Pennsylvania remains Democratic-leaning. This is more because of an unusually strong Democratic machine than any natural liberalism in Pennsylvania.

In 2008 Democrats won Pennsylvania by double-digits, amassing a coalition based upon poor blacks in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, rich whites in the Philadelphia suburbs, and working-class votes outside Appalachia. It is a strange-looking combination, but it works.

More below.

Republicans built their strength upon small towns and exurban communities in “the T,” along with working-class votes in the southwest.

For decades, Republicans have been strengthening in western Pennsylvania, while weakening in eastern Pennsylvania. This map indicates these changes.

Although it doesn’t look like it, the 2008 Democratic candidate (who won by 10.32%) actually did better than the 1992 candidate (who won by 9.02%).

From all this, the best news for Democrats would be the blue shift Philadelphia’s suburbs have undergone. Republicans will take heart in the Appalachan southwest’s even stronger movement right.

I have previously opined that these changes benefit Democrats on the whole. Indeed, this whole series of posts has inclined toward a theory of continuing Democratic strength in Pennsylvania. I will conclude this chain of posts, therefore, with a map Republicans will like – the 2008 Pennsylvania results by municipality. This illustrates how President George W. Bush almost won Pennsylvania in 2004.

Note: Several months ago I posted several diaries analyzing the swing state Pennsylvania. In a search of my posting archives, I just found out that I’d apparently forgotten to post this final part – so here it is.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

It’s time for the third edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate.  This week we’ve got a bevy of endorsements from the Women’s Campaign Forum, HRC and more.  

As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag.  You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page.  If you’d like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed.  –Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

New York state is a finalist for up to $700 million in federal education funds as part of the Race To The Top competition. This is a direct result of the Senate Democratic majority pushing through major legislation in recent months that allow test scores to be used in teacher evaluations and that raise the number of charter schools in the state to 460 from 200.

The Women’s Campaign Forum has endorsed four Democratic candidates: Didi Barrett, Regina Calcaterra, Mary Wilmot, and Robin Wilt. The WCF is dedicated to advancing the political participation and leadership of women who support reproductive health choices for all. WCF, founded in 1974, is a non-partisan national network dedicated to achieving parity for women in public office.

The Human Rights Campaign New York endorsed numerous Democratic challengers and incumbents who are all supporters of marriage equality and whose election will “put New York on a path to fairness and equality for same-sex couples in the state.” They endorsed incumbent Senators Brian Foley, Craig Johnson, Tom Duane, and Dave Valesky — and Democratic candidates Dave Mejias, Tony Avella, and Regina Calcaterra. Not a single Republican was endorsed by the group.

Tony Avella, running against 38-year Republican incumbent Frank Padavan, was endorsed by a massive retail union . The Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, which represents 100,000 workers across the United States and Canada, gave Avella the nod, calling him “an independent voice for working New Yorkers and taxpayers.” “He’s exactly the kind of reformer we desperately need in Albany right now,” said Stuart Applebaum, the union’s president.

Democratic Candidate Mike Kaplowitz proposed massive pension reform, advocating for the elimination of overtime for calculating a public employee’s pension and called for creating a pension plan for new public employees that would be similar to a 401K plan. Both measures, he said, could save taxpayers an estimated $2.2 billion over the next three years. “The costs of public pensions are killing New York State taxpayers,” he said. By 2013, Kaplowitz said, public employee pensions will cost taxpayers $6.8 billion — up from $2.4 billion in 2009.

Kaplowitz was also profiled by Jimmy Vielkind on The Albany-Times Union’s Capitol Confidential blog. In the piece, Kaplowitz spoke about how the GOP primary schism in the district is sure to play to his advantage. “There’s no question that the schism between the two of them will benefit me, because there are a lot of rank and file Republicans very angry with and very unhappy with the shenanigans of Assemblyman Greg Ball,” Kaplowitz said. Those shenanigans include an allegation that Ball denies that he groped a woman at an Albany bar, sleeps with a gun under his bed and once found a dead goat on his driveway.

Dave Mejias, running against 21-year Republican incumbent Kemp Hannon on Long Island, was interviewed by The Albany Project. Readers were able to send in questions in advance to ask Mejias, a former Nassau County Legislator. Mejias started out making his case quite strongly: “After 34 years in Albany, Kemp Hannon has forgotten who he represents. He works harder for party bosses and political insiders to maintain the status quo than he does for us. Why else would he have blocked ethics reform, voted to raise taxes over 400 times and most recently voted against restoring school aid?”

Democratic Candidate Didi Barrett, running against Republican incumbent Stephen Saland, weighed in on a variety of issues in a wide-ranging interview with The Register-Star. She said “It’s not about upstate or downstate, it’s about New York state. Politics has gotten in the way of progress for New York. We need an era that doesn’t complain and blame, but gets things done.” On balancing the budget, Barrett said that’s “something someone like me brings to the mix. I’m not a politician; I spent a long time in the not-for-profit sector. I learned to stretch a dollar by thinking outside the box. Everything should be on the table as a way to explore the best solutions.”

Democratic Candidate Joanne Yepsen  has continued to fight for the future of Saratoga Race Course. Yepsen and Sen. Eric Adams, head of the state Senate’s racing committee, held a roundtable at Saratoga National Golf Club to discuss the racing industry’s impact on the local economy. Yepsen said all stakeholders – New York Racing Association, New York City Off Track Betting and the Aqueduct racino operator – should be brought together to deal with racing’s future collectively. Several years ago, NYRA had a management contract with MGM to run Aqueduct’s racino, but the state wouldn’t approve it for unexplained reasons. “We’ve got different people running the state now,” Yepsen said.

Sen. Darrel Aubertine said that he is honored to have the endorsement of independent voters throughout his district. “I’m so pleased and honored to have the endorsement of the local independent voters and the Independence Party ballot line this fall,” Sen. Aubertine said. “Working for all of us means working together. I want to thank all nine members of the local Independence Party Committee and all of the local voters who signed petitions for your support and endorsement.” Over the past year, more than 50 pieces of legislation sponsored or co-sponsored by Sen. Aubertine passed the Senate.

REPUBLICANS

Showing just how out of touch he really is, Republican incumbent Stephen Saland attended a $19,000 black-tie dinner  for his re-election campaign that was thrown by a politically connected couple in April at their Rhinebeck, Dutchess County, estate.  The $19,000 dinner was listed as an in-kind donation to Saland’s campaign. That means it was for services rendered for a political function, but not a direct monetary contribution. “There’s a lot of trust with the reporting by the campaigns,” said Dick Dadey, executive director of Citizens Union, a good-government group. “There’s very little if any verification.”

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Presidential election results are often pictured through electoral college maps, a useful and simple tool. Looking at the competition of the two parties throughout time provides a quite interesting exercise. Certain states turn blue, then red, then blue again. Others stay the same color. One election the map is filled with red; the next election blue makes a comeback. And on and on it goes.

This is in fact quite deceiving. What the electoral college does not show is the history of third-party challenges to the two-party system. In 1992, for instance, presidential candidate Ross Perot finished with 18.9% of the vote – yet not a single state in the 1992 electoral college showed his third-party run.

Since 1992, however, third-parties have had quite a rough run. This graph shows the third-party vote after that year:

More below.

Several factors influenced this. Mr. Perot ran again in 1996, winning a much reduced share of the vote. In 2000 Green candidate Ralph Nader polled as high as six percent, before his support collapsed as voters abandoned Mr. Nader for Vice President Al Gore. Then came the infamous Florida debacle, in which Nader votes literally cost the Democratic Party the presidency. Ever since then not a single third-party candidate has gained more than one percent of the vote.

Will either 2012 or 2016 be the year for a third-party run? On a micro-level, discontent with both parties does not appear to be extremely high. Democrats are fairly happy with President Barack Obama. The tea-party movement is really just a large group of amped-up Republican supporters – so the Republican Party isn’t exactly falling apart, either. Of course, these types of evaluations are naturally subjective. Different people may come to different conclusions.

Let’s take a look, then, at the macro-level trend. Here is a graph of third-party performance throughout the entire history of the United States, since popular voting first started.

The data here is also fairly inconclusive. Strong minor party candidacies seem to come and go in no particular order. There are long periods where they get less than 1% of the vote, and times where they regularly break the 10% barrier. To be frank, I was expecting to find a more discernible pattern – say, a strong minor party performance every four or five cycles.

Here is the data in a table format, for those interested:

To conclude, one can make a strong case either way. Since 1964, strong third-party performances seem to come every three elections or so. Under this argument, America might be overdue for a third-party candidacy in 2012 or 2016. On the other hand, one might also argue that the country is headed towards another long period of utter two-party dominance, such as existed from 1928 to 1964 (during the time of the so-called New Deal coalition).

What is fairly certain is that third-party candidates will continue having extreme difficulty actually winning the presidency. Out of 56 presidential elections, minor parties have a batting average of exactly zero. The strength and organizational depth of the two major parties, combined with the extreme hurdles presented by the first-past-the-post system, continue to make a third-party presidency almost impossible.

This might be a good thing. To date, the strongest minor party performance in the electoral college occurred in 1860, when they won a combined 111 out of 303 electoral votes. That year Republican candidate Abraham Lincoln won the presidency, despite not being on the ballot in ten states. Shortly afterwards the country plunged into Civil War.

It’s time for the second edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate.  We’ve just past the petitioning and July filing deadlines, and this edition is all about the numbers.

As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag.  You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page.  If you’d like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed.  –Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

Senate Democrats announced record fundraising numbers this past week, reporting a historic $3.5 million raised during the first six months of the year. We now have $3.5 million in cash on hand – more than twice the amount of money we had at this point two years ago, when we went on to pick up two seats in the November elections and take control of the Senate for the first time in decades. After all the numbers came in, Senate Democrats reported a combined $25 million in fundraising for re-election efforts over the last 20 months, $10 million more than GOP lawmakers.

Newsday: On and off L.I., state Senate Dems tout petition and fund totals. Dan Janison, of Newsday, wrote a piece on how Senate Democrats are “blowing our political horns” with our impressive fundraising and petition totals. He specifically mentioned the strength of two Long Island campaigns:Sen. Brian Foley’s, which has over $240,000 cash on hand and filed 4,073 Democratic signatures with the Suffolk County Board of Elections -four times the amount required to qualify for the ballot; and Regina Calcaterra’s, who has raised $260,000 since announcing her candidacy this year and now has nearly $180,000 in cash on hand.

Maggie Haberman of  POLITICO coined 2010 the ‘Year of the Woman’ in an extensive piece that hailed our “unprecedented slate of 10 female hopefuls… in districts ranging from swing-county Suffolk in Long Island to more rural areas of upstate New York.” Jimmy Vielkind of the Albany Times Union later chimed in, wondering if “dissatisfaction with the state of state [will] cause voters to think gender at polls?” He noted that our crop of 10 women candidates may benefit from the palpable anti-incumbency sentiment.

NARAL Pro-Choice New York announced their first round of endorsements in the 2010 election and named the following Democratic candidates for State Senate as 100% pro-choice candidates: Regina Calcaterra, Dave Mejias, Carol Gordon, Mike Gianaris, Didi Barrett, Susan Savage, Kathleen Joy, Pam Mackesey, and Robin Wilt. Not a single Republican Senate candidate was endorsed by NARAL.

Eleanor’s Legacy announced the endorsement of two more State Senate candidates: Cynthia Appleton and Pam Mackesey. This makes an unprecedented seven start-up grants that Eleanor’s Legacy has provided to our candidates this election cycle. They have previously endorsed Didi Barrett, Robin Wilt, Regina Calcaterra, Joanne Yepsen, and Mary Wilmot.

Former Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias is running strong against 21-year Republican incumbent Kemp Hannon and announced he has raised $116,925 and has $112,921 cash on hand . Mejias also released a campaign kick-off video, in which he denounced the dysfunction in Albany.

Joanne Yepsen announced that she raised more than three times as much as her opponent since she announced her candidacy less than three months ago. Yepsen brought in a total $70,000, and currently has $60,000 cash on hand. Her opponent, Roy McDonald, shockingly announced that his cash on hand actually went down over the past six months. After starting January with $48,000 in the bank, he now has just $44,000.

Didi Barrett reported that she raised over $160,000 since declaring her candidacy just three months ago . The number far surpasses the amount of cash her opponent, a 30-year Albany insider, had on hand when Barrett entered the race. The campaign also collected 3,700 signatures — almost four times the required amount to get on the ballot.

Susan Savage, running against 34-year Republican incumbent Hugh Farley, reported that she raised more than $75,000 for her campaign — almost twice what Farley reported raising over the same time period. “If we want to change Albany, we have to change who we send to Albany. This filing is a clear sign that the people of New York agree,” said Doug Forand, one of Savage’s campaign advisers.

Sen. Darrel Aubertine had an impressive week: he received the Rural Schools Association ‘Appreciation Award, was deemed a “hero” by the New York Farm Bureau, and outraised his GOP opponent. The New York State Rural Schools Association honored Sen. Aubertine with its annual Appreciation Award for his work on behalf of rural schools while Peter Gregg, a New York Farm Bureau spokesman, called him a “hero” and added “we are extremely grateful for Sen. Aubertine. He worked miracles to get the funding restored at the levels at which he did. There was absolutely no money and he somehow found it.” Later in the week, Sen. Aubertine announced he has outraised his opponent by about $24,000 during the first six months of the year. Sen. Aubertine raised over $87,000 in the period, and now has over $159,000 in cash on hand – or about $110,000 more than his opponent

Sen. William Stachowski announced that he now has over $287,000 in cash on hand, after raising nearly $142,000 over the past six months. He also submitted 3,447 signatures on his ballot petitions, well over the required amount to gain ballot access. “Voters in my district are coming to appreciate the importance of qualified, independent representation,” he said. Sen. Stachowski also received the backing of the Independence Party and will appear on their ballot line this fall.

Sen. David Valesky posted impressive fundraising totals, while his Republican challengers are mired in a costly primary battle. Sen. Valesky raised $200,000 over the past six months, and has $465,580 in his campaign coffers. He also received the backing of the Independence Party over his opponent, little-known pianist Andrew Russo.

Tony Avella, running against 38-year Republican incumbent Frank Padavan, received the endorsement of City Council Member Margaret Chin – the first Asian American and the first Chinese American elected to represent New York City’s Chinatown in the city council, and the first Asian American woman elected to the city council.  “Tony Avella is the kind of elected leader that we need in Albany,” stated Council Member Chin, standing in front of the Flushing Public Library. “He has remained a champion for good government and consistently fought for his constituents while a member of the New York City Council.”

Finally, Regina Calcaterra’s campaign launched a new website, and hit their opponent Ken LaValle for improperly using his tax-payer-funded government site to launch political attacks against Democrats.

REPUBLICANS

Siena’s most recent election poll spells trouble for the GOP, showing that less than one in four voters want a Republican Senate, and 69% of voters preferred the existing or an enlarged Democratic majority. In upstate New York – where Republicans sit in most of the Senate seats – just 26% of those polled wanted Republican control of the Senate, as opposed to the 68% who favored Democratic control. Voters upstate are far more pessimistic about the direction of the state – with 86% saying we are on the wrong track – and more likely to vote their incumbent Senator out of office. This is the just the latest in a series of polls that have consistently indicated trouble for Republicans and their electoral prospects this November.

Newsday reported that at a screening for a possible endorsement of Lee Zeldin, the Republican candidate running against Democratic Sen. Brian Foley, Zeldin “turned angry”  when his military record came up. James LaCarrubba, Brian Foley’s top aide, said no one questions Zeldin’s service, just his demeanor. “We appreciate his service. But this is a man who wants to represent 300,000 people. And a candidate in a room full of people should be able to control his temper,” he said.

A Westchester County business group backed off supporting three Republican candidates  for state senate after some members expressed alarm over the sudden foray into partisan politics. The Business Council of Westchester offered an apology to its members and Council President and CEO Marsha Gordon, in an e-mail to members, apologized “for deviating from our tradition of being nonpartisan” and promised to return any checks.

Democratic Candidate Regina Calcaterra criticized her opponent, 34-year Republican incumbent Ken LaValle, for knowingly deceiving voters on Eastern Long Island about his support for jobs creation, saying he supported a measure to fund small businesses — after he voted to kill the legislation that created it.

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

According to the Times, the Republican Party has selected Tampa to host the 2012 Republican National Convention. Located in the vital swing state Florida, Republican intentions with this pick are fairly straightforward.

Not all national conventions take place in swing states. This impression may be due to 2008, when both parties held conventions in fairly competitive (or not, as it turned out) states. In 2004, however, Republicans held their convention in New York City; Democrats in Boston.

On the other hand, holding national conventions in swing states does constitute good strategy. After Democrats held their 2008 convention in Denver, Colorado ended up voting more Democratic than the nation for the first time since 1964. Likewise, the Minneapolis Republican convention helped Senator John McCain stay competitive in Minnesota weeks after Michigan and Wisconsin began moving Democratic. Choosing Tampa is another variation on this strategy.

Tampa, highly populated and fairly diverse, is a good place to hold a political convention.

More below.

While the city itself probably votes fairly Democratic, the larger  surrounding suburbs lean Republican. The convergence of these forces creates a very competitive environment. Hillsborough  County, which Tampa is located in, has gone within single digits for the past five straight presidential elections. Whoever wins the Tampa area stands a good chance of winning the state.

Florida itself constitutes a Republican-leaning swing state. This is somewhat surprising; at first glance, Florida looks like a typical Democratic-voting state. Diverse, urbanized, and heavily populated, Florida has more in common with blue California and New York than red Alabama or Kansas. The state, moreover, is becoming more minority-heavy as white retirees are replaced by Latino immigrants.

Yet a number of factors combine to make Florida a red-leaning swing state rather than a blue stronghold. Deeply conservative northern Florida, which is more like rural Georgia than Miami, gives Republicans an immediate base. Many white voters are elderly, conservative-leaning retirees. And – unlike most immigrants – the Cuban immigrant community votes strongly Republican, undercutting the Democratic stronghold in South Florida.

Florida has even been drifting right in presidential elections. President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore performed respectably in the state, but Senator John Kerry lost by a sobering margin. Mr. McCain was particularly strong in Florida; he would have won the state by 4.4% given a tied electorate.

This is strange. By all rights, a place like Florida ought to be shifting Democratic, especially given its demographic changes (the opposite is true for much of the Rustbelt Midwest). Yet in the short-term the state has moving in the opposite direction.

When Republicans hold their convention in Tampa, they will attempt to keep Florida in this condition for another presidential election. It is a clever move by a clever party.

Writing at POLITICO, Maggie Haberman profiles Democratic women challenging incumbent Republicans in the State Senate, and notes that The Year of the Woman Hits New York:

The Year of the Woman candidate has arrived in New York for the 2010 cycle, with an unprecedented slate of 10 female hopefuls vying for legislative office on the Democratic side in a state known as politically progressive but lagging at the state level.

With help from EMILY’s List over the last few years, the state Senate Democrats now have 10 women competing in districts ranging from swing-county Suffolk in Long Island to more rural areas of upstate New York.

“I think it is reflective of a larger pattern throughout the country,” said state Sen. Liz Krueger (D-Manhattan), who is the recruitment chair for the political arm of the Senate Democrats. “Women in both parties throughout the country are looking at who’s in office and saying, ‘Oh hell, I can do better than that!'”

Women make up 52% of the population in New York State. So it’s shameful that only 16% (just 10 out of 62) of our state senators are women. The slate of women candidates run by the New York Senate Dems could double the number of women serving in the state senate, and clear the way for progress on a host of issues including ethics reform and marriage equality. But what these women bring to the table goes far beyond reform and social issues that have defined past campaigns by women.

The slate of candidates looking to unseat 1/3 or the republican conference demonstrate a strong a track record of economic achievement around which they are focusing their campaigns.  These women created jobs at the county level; they increased investment in green jobs; they even took on Wall Street giants – and won.  They’re fighting not only to end the dysfunction in Albany, but to put our state back on sound economic footing

“I think what sets these women apart is they’re accomplished in their own rights and own careers and now want to turn their attentions [to government],” said state Sen. Jeff Klein, adding that those running are not being pigeonholed into campaigning on what are typically considered “women’s issues,” a fate that has befallen some other female Empire State candidates.

This election cycle, the stakes have never been higher.  Democrats hold a razor-thin, one vote majority in the State Senate.  The outcome of these races will determine how effective we are at moving a Democratic Agenda in 2011 and putting our state back on track.

As Susan Savage, the Democratic challenger to 34-year incumbent Hugh Farley, says – “We’re not going to change Albany until we change the people that we send to Albany.” With your help, these women will unseat Republican obstructionists who created Albany’s corrupt culture, help revive our economy, and give New Yorkers the government they deserve.

Below is a quick look at the New York Senate Dems class of women challengers.  Click the links for more information, or to join and contribute to their campaigns.

Susan Savage – Chair of the Schenectady County Legislature, she created thousands of jobs and brought millions in investments into the county.  She is challenging 34-year incumbent Hugh Farley in the 44th Senate District.

Joanne Yepsen – As Saratoga County Supervisor, Joanne Yepsen held down local taxes and helped local businesses. She is now challenging Joe Bruno’s hand-picked-successor, Roy McDonald, in the 43rd Senate District.

Didi Barrett – A leader in the non profit world for decades, and a strong advocate for women in New York, Didi Barrett is challenging 20-year incumbent Steve Saland in the 41st Senate District, the seat once held by FDR.

Mary Wilmot – As Regional Director for the Governor and the New York State Senate, Wilmot has extensive knowledge of the challenges Upstate New York faces, and she is determined to revitalize New York’s economy through investments in clean energy.  Wilmot is challenging 14-year incumbent James Alesi in the 55th Senate District.

Robin Wilt – As community activist, real estate agent, and small business owner, Wilt has seen first-hand the economic challenges facing Monroe County. She is the co-founder of the Genesee Valley chapter of Progressive Democrats of America, and is challenging seven-year incumbent Joe Robach.

Regina Calcaterra – A corporate fraud lawyer who took on Wall Street and won, Regina Calcaterra is now taking the fight to thirty-four-year incumbent Ken LaValle in Suffolk County’s 1st Senate District.

Kathleen Joy – Syracuse Common Counselor-At-Large and Majority Leader Kathleen Joy has a record promoting green infrastructure.  She’s now challenging 18-year incumbent, and self-described GOP “pit bull” John DeFrancisco in the 50th Senate Distirct.

Cynthia Appleton – A three-term Warsaw, Appleton has first-hand experience with the impact of Albany’s dysfunction at the local level, and is ready to clean up the capital.  She is running for the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Senator Dale Volker.

Pam Mackesey – As a union organizer, she witnessed first-hand the struggles that everyday Shuyler, Steuben, and Chemung county residents face, Pam Mackesey is determined to defeat six-year incumbent George Winner in the 53rd Senate District.

Carol Gordon – As a Mental Health Clinic Manager and Patient Advocate at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Carol Gordon served our veterans for 25 years.  Now she is challenging twelve-year incumbent Charle’s Fuschillo in the 8th Senate District.

Disclosure: I am the New York Senate Dems’ New Media Director.

This is the first part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate elections in blue states. The first part, which analyzes Illinois can be found here.

Out of the three heavily Democratic states being analyzed, Republicans probably have the least chance of winning New York. A serious Republican challenger to Senator Kristen Gillibrand has yet to emerge. Moreover, Ms. Gillibrand has proven an adept politician willing to campaign hard.

Nevertheless, in a bad national environment with low name recognition, victory for Democrats is not assured. Under the right circumstances (perhaps a Gillibrand scandal), Republicans may be able to pull off a shocker.

Like Illinois, New York can be divided into three sections: upstate, the suburbs downstate, and New York City. A New York Republican must win upstate and the suburbs by substantial margins – and perform extremely well in New York City.

More below.

Upstate New York

Like Illinois, the first step on the Republican road to victory lies with here. A Republican candidate must win strong margins upstate; a strong performance here is embedded with a double-digit loss.

Unfortunately for Republicans, upstate New York and downstate Illinois are not the same. Unlike Illinois, upstate New York is home to four major cities: Buffalo, Rochester, Albany, and Syracuse. In a normal election – i.e. a double-digit Democratic victory – these cities will vote Democratic, some by substantial margins.

There are several more wrinkles for a Republican candidate. Like much of the rural northeast, upstate New York has been trending Democratic. Despite the conservative national mood, Democrats last year won two special elections upstate. Moreover, Senator Kristen Gillibrand has roots there; she represented an upstate congressional district before becoming Senator.

Nevertheless, the majority of this region still votes loyally Republican; a competitive candidate can rely upon it to help counter New York City. In a close election a Republican ought to win almost every county in upstate New York.



The Suburbs Downstate

This region can be defined as the suburbs surrounding New York City: Long Island and the communities around Yonkers. A Republican’s task here is similar to that upstate: win, and win big.

Historically this was not too difficult; New York City’s suburbs regularly voted Republican, although never by enough to overcome Democratic margins in the city itself. Like many other suburbs, this changed with President Bill Clinton: since his time they have generally voted Democratic.

Today things are changing once more. Since the events of 9/11, downstate’s suburbs (especially Long Island) have been trending Republican. This was one of the few regions Senator John McCain did well in (as opposed to President Barack Obama doing poorly in); his national security credentials appealed to a number of downstate suburban voters.

A strong Republican must capitalize on this trend, changing New York’s suburbs back into Republican territory. This strength, added to margins from upstate, makes for a 5% Republican loss. Republican candidates have achieved this combination many times in the state’s electoral history. Take 1968, when President Richard Nixon lost New York by 5.46%:

The problem is the last 5%, to  which a Republican must look to New York City for.



New York City

To make up the last 5%, a Republican candidate must do well in New York City, that great metropolis of the United States. The Big Apple composes an astounding 43% of the state’s population, the largest proportion in the country. It also votes extremely Democratic; in 2008 four out of five voters turned the lever for President Barack Obama.

The Republican facing Ms. Gillibrand will have to substantially improve upon this number. This is not as hard as it first sounds. New York City, after all, has had a non-Democratic mayor for more than a decade. Low minority turn-out looks likely to bedevil Democrats during this off-year election. Moreover, Republicans retain a base in Staten Island and southern Brooklyn. Even in 2008 these places voted Republican:

(Note: Image courtesy of a very old post from jeffmd.)

Finally, some regional complexities come into play. Although almost all of New York City voted for Mr. Obama, some parts are more less loyally Democratic than others (as was the case in Massachusetts). White liberals and impoverished minorities in Manhattan and the Bronx almost never vote Republican; suburbanites in Brooklyn and Queens, on the other hand, are more perceptible to Republican appeals. Winning Republicans generally tie or win the Queens borough and hold Democrats below 60% in the Kings borough.



Conclusions

If New York is close next November, it will probably look something like this:

This map can indicate anything from a 5% Democratic victory to a 5% Republican victory, depending on turn-out. Perhaps the best barometer will be the Queens borough in New York City. Look to it next November – it might literally determine the fate of the Democratic Senate majority.

In an effort to keep folks in the loop about important down-ballot races here in New York, I’m going to start posting weekly roundups of all the news related to New York State Senate (#NYSen10 on Twitter) candidates.  If you want to follow these daily, visit the New York Senate Dems blog, or subscribe to our RSS feed.

If we missed anything, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you’d like to donate to any of the Democratic challengers running this year, New York Senate Dems has set up an Act Blue page featuring all the challengers (no incumbents) who are registered on the site: Change Albany Now!–Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

Empire State Pride Agenda endorsed 7 of our general election candidates.  Those who made the cut:

• Regina Calcaterra (challenger)
• Brian Foley (incumbent)
• Tony Avella (challenger)
• Mike Gianaris(challenger)
• Mike Kaplowitz (challenger)
• Didi Barrett (challenger)
• Dave Valesky (incumbent)

Mary Wilmot Challenges James Alesi on Mayoral Control.  Mayoral control of schools is a hot issue in Rochester.  Today, Democratic challenger Mary Wilmot took on her opponeent, James Alesi, for his hypocrisy on the issue and for failing Rochester’s school children.

Mike Kaplowitz signed all five of the major reform packages meant to clean up Albany yesterday, in an effort to fix state government and help New York’s economy. He signed all of them – the Pledge for Change, Call to Action, Enough Already NY, New NY Agenda and NY Uprising – at a news conference in Bailey Park in Somers. “I’m calling it a plan for reform. The stakes are high but the time is now,” said Kaplowitz.

Sen. Oppenheimer became the latest Democratic candidate to sign on to New York Uprising’s reform pledge yesterday. “New York Uprising has brought together the critical reforms needed in New York State, which I have long supported and sponsored. By securing commitments from candidates now, it is my hope that we will have the momentum to make these reforms a reality in 2011,” said Sen. Oppenheimer.

Newsday profiled this year’s Senate races on Long Island (subscription required).  Long Island is a competitive battleground in this year’s campaign to expand our majority in the senate. Mentioned as the most vulnerable Republicans were  34-year incumbent Ken LaValle, who is being challenged by Regina Calcaterra, and 21-year incumbent Kemp Hannon, who is being challenged by Dave Mejias.

Speaking of Regina Calcaterra, she received a glowing write up in the local press.  T.J. Clemente, lauded her as a “young gifted fighter with energy and ideals.” He also added: “There are forces at work when she speaks. Every word about this election seems to bring up a passion seen only in individuals with a singularity of purpose.”

Susan Savage stood  with nurses in demanding fair contract – Savage, running against 34-year Republican incumbent Hugh Farley,  walked a picket line with nurses in her district who are seeking a new contract. The nurses are asking for, and have so far been denied, a combination of fair wages, health care benefits, and nursing ratios.

Democratic incumbent Craig Johnson received the support of Mayor Michael Bloomberg  –  Mayor Bloomberg is lending his name to a fundraiser next Monday to support Sen. Johnson.  Mayor Bloomberg had pledged to help legislators who lead on issues of great importance to him. Charter schools are such an issue for the Mayor, and Sen. Johnson has been a fierce proponent of charter schools at the state level.  This is a departure for Bloomberg, who is typically one of the NY SRCC’s largest donors.

David Carlucci received a major endorsement from Congressman Eliot Engel, who said: “David Carlucci and I have worked together for years, and because of that relationship, I know firsthand that he is the right person to represent the people of his district in the State Senate.  David has demonstrated his commitment to making government work for the people as Town Clerk of Clarkstown.”

Michael Steele and RNC decided to dumping cash in Didi Barret’s district. Barrett is running against Republican Stephen Saland. The  national GOP has recently announced it will be funneling cash for local elections directly to county leaders in New York. One of the first areas to receive RNC dollars will be Dutchess county, which includes 80% of SD-41, where Barrett is running against Republican Stephen Saland.

REPUBLICANS

In an  extensive look inside the NY SRCC, The Capitol described a “shoe-string operation” defined by disarray and despair.  Just a few of the myriad of problems for the Senate GOP that the piece identified: special-interest money that once flowed has dried to a trickle, old allies have fled , and the Independence Party (which strongly backed Senate Republicans both with its ballot line and financial resources in 2008) has undergone a fundamental shift in philosophy and will support Senate candidates from both sides of the aisle this year.

The New York Observer questioned SRCC chair Tom Libous’ ties to political turncoat Carl Paladino, calling it “somewhat odd that Libous would appear alongside [Carl] Paladino, since Rick Lazio is now the GOP’s gubernatorial designee, and Paladino is threatening to run on a third party line.”

In the GOP primary to decide who will challenge Democratic incumbent Dave Valesky, home-town favorite Danny Liedka looks to get shut out by SRCC-backed concert pianist Andrew Russo (yes, you read that right).  According to the Auburn Pub, Liedka raised $48k and has just $5k cash-on-hand. Russo is reported to have raised 4 times that number.

Greg Ball, Tea Party candidate and potential opponent to Mike Kaplowitz for the 40th SD seat vacated by Vincent Leibell was accused of groping a waitress during “a rowdy night at an Albany bar.”

This is the final part of three posts analyzing the congressional districts President Barack Obama underperformed in. It will focus on the movement in Appalachia and the South Central United States. The previous parts can be found starting here.



The 2010 Midterms

Let’s take one last look at those districts in which Mr. Obama did worse than Senator John Kerry:

One sees again, as clear as ever, the diagonal pattern of Republican movement in South Central America and the Appalachians.

These districts differ from the northeastern and Florida-based regions examined in the previous post. Unlike those congressional districts, the districts in South Central and Appalachia vote strongly Republican.

More below.

Many of them were never much loyal to the Democrats in the first place; those that did vote Democratic generally stopped doing so after President Bill Clinton left the ticket.

Nevertheless, a number of these South Central and Appalachian districts are still represented by Democratic congressmen. This is readily apparent if one looks at a list of congressional districts in which Mr. Obama underperformed Mr. Kerry:

There are a surprisingly high number of Democrats on this list.  As one might expect, the Democratic-voting districts all elect Democrats (except, ironically, for the most Democratic one). Yet more than half of the Republican-voting districts on the list also are represented by Democrats.

That is actually an amazing statistic. These are places in Appalachia and South Central which are already voting Republican, which are fast becoming even more Republican, and which are electing Democratic congressmen.

For Democrats, congressional districts like these constitute ticking time bombs. They will be the first to fall in a Republican wave. There is literally no way the party can continue holding the majority of seats in Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

And 2010 looks like a Republican wave year. Democratic-controlled districts in Appalachia and South Central are in deep trouble already:

In congressional districts that vote Republican and are becoming Republican, only half the Democratic incumbents are running again. The open seats will likely elect Republican representatives this fall, even in the best forseeable Democratic environment.

There is good news, however, judging from the PA-12 election results. On May 18th Pennsylvania held a special election for a new representative of the 12th congressional district, after incumbent John Murtha’s death:

Like many Democratic representatives in South Central and Appalachia, Mr. Murtha had constituted a relic of an earlier time – when southwest Pennsylvania voted Democratic. His continued re-elections were due to his personal popularity and the power of incumbency, even as his district moved more and more Republican.

It was a minor miracle that Democratic candidate Mark Critz won. Until then, no Democratic candidate had ever done better than Mr. Obama since his election. Mr. Critz did just that, given that the president lost PA-12 (the only seat in the nation to support Kerry and the McCain). In a district with double-digit disapproval ratings of Mr. Obama, this constituted an arduous task.

It is the same task that awaits more than a dozen Democrats in Appalachia and South Central America come November 2010.