Tag: House

As our fellow Swingnuts are well aware, President-elect Obama’s cabinet appointments can and likely will have big reprecussions for downballot races throughout the nation in coming years. So James and I, out of a deep desire to help John Podesta and his extremely busy transition team, have put together the following list of suggestions so that Obama can, well, maximize his impact on the country:

Secretary of Interior: Mark Begich

Secretary of Defense: Ike Skelton

Secretary of Commerce: Byron Dorgan

Attorney General: Charlie Justice

Patent Office Commissioner: Jim Matheson

FCC Commissioner: Jeff Van Drew

SEC Commissioner: Walt Minnick

EPA Administrator: Kathy Dahlkemper

OMB Director: Alex Sink

White House Chaplain: Tom Perriello

Drug Czar: Paul Carmouche

What other good ideas do you guys have?

Stephanie Tubbs-Jones was the Representative from OH-11 (in and around Cleveland, basically)until her sudden tragic death in August. The Cuyahoga County Democrats chose her former chief of staff, Marcia Fudge, from a very crowded field, to endorse in a special primary election, which was held on Oct 14.

After the county Party endorsed Fudge, a number of contenders dropped out and Fudge easily won the primary, for the special election to fill the remaining two months of this term. Today is that special election.She is the only candidate on the ballot. Her automatic win means that she will enjoy a two month edge in seniority over the other members of the new class of Reps.

And (of course) she already easily won the General Election on Nov 4 for the new, full term starting in January. It’s an 85% Democratic District.

But there is one big question looming. After the 2010 census, Ohio is going to lose two seats in the U.S. House. And, if they can hang on, the Democrats will control the State General Assembly House of Representatives and the Governorship.

OH-11 is the only U.S. District in Ohio which has a majority of African-American and other minorities. It is also BY FAR the most Democratic in the state under the gerrymandering of the GOP.

In the other urban areas in Ohio, the GOP has tried to carefully slice the suburbs and exurbia with pieces of the inner cities to create House Districts that they can control. (Don’t even talk to me about the General Assembly, especially the Senate…)

That is until 2006 when Zack Space was able to capture an open “scandal” seat in OH-18. And now this year, we have successfully flipped OH-16 and OH-01 and will probably capture OH-15.

So back to reapportionment. The GOP has been able to hold majority control of our “purple” state by creating seats that are solidly but NOT overwhelmingly Republican. On the other hand they have created Democratic seats (OH-09,OH-10, OH-11 and OH-17) which “quarantine” very large numbers of urban Democratic voters.

Will we be able to redraw the map, with two less seats and still be able to maintain Districts with such high concentration of urban Democratic voters?

A lot has been made about the increase in electoral votes earned by Barack Obama from John Kerry’s totals.  Obama’s number while a significant increase is slightly lower than what Bill Clinton won in both 1992 (370 EV) and 1996 (379 EV).  Clinton started from a far lower base (Michael Dukakis’ losing total in 1988).  The real improvement for the Democratic Party came in the House and Senate results.  In 1992, Clinton may have won big but Democrats won 9 fewer House seats than in 1990 and 2 fewer than in 1988; Senate seats increased by 1 over the few year time slot.

By contrast, the final number of Democratic House seats is likely to be 258 or 259 (per Chris Bowers).  The Senate total ios likely to be 58 or 59.  That’s a gain of 56 or 57 House seats and 14 or 15 Senate seats from 2004 totals.

Regional and statewide totals tell the story best.

The Northeast is the most Democratic part of the country.  Both John Kerry and Barack Obama won all 117 electoral votes from this region.  In the interim, however, the Republicans moved from an important minority at the federal level to an insignificant one.  In 2004, House seats ran 56 D,35R, and 1 Democratic leaning indy (Bernie Sanders).  Republicans lost nearly a third of their seats in 2006 falling to 24 and repeated the feat by falling to 17 in 2008.  Over the two cycles, they lost more than half of their House seats in the region (18 seats).  Or if you prefer percentages, the GOP dropped from 38% to 18.5% of Northeast House seats. That included a loss of 6 seats in NY, 5 in PA, all 3 GOP in CT and all 2 GOP in NH.  At leasat half of the remaining GOP seat are still vulnerable.  Senate seats fell from 7 of 22 to 4 of 22 (also 18%).  Two of the four are up in 2010 and one will be represented by an 80 year old probably facing a stiff primary challenge.  The other (Judd Gregg, NH) is also on the chopping block.

The Great Lakes states are six industrial (and to a lesser extent farm) states that all touch on the Great Lakes.  Four of the six went to both Kerry and Gore.  Obama added IN and OH to win all 89 electoral votes.  Over the four years, the region became substantially more Democratic at the House level going from a 32-45 Republican edge to a 45-32 Democratic edge (if MaryJo Kilroy wins OH-15).  Democrats picked up one Senate seat in MO on 2006 and may pick up another in MN in 2008.

Gerrrymanders in Il, OH, and MI were overcome to and Democrats now lead IL 12-7, OH 10-8 (or 9-9) and MI 8-7.  Both WI and MN went from 4-4 splits to a 5-3 D lead and IN zoomed from 2-7 to 5-4.

The Mountain region went from a Republican 20-8 lead in 2004 to a solid 17-11 D edge.  Democrats picked up 2 seats in CO, 3 in AZ, 2 in NMand single seats in Nevada and Idaho.  They also gained Senate seats in MT (2006) and CO aand NM (2008).

The south didn’t turn blue but it did become considerably less red.  Here three seats are still listed as unsettled but VA-5 seems clearly ours and LA-2 (New Orleans, Dollar Bill Jefferson) is also pretty clear.  LA-4 (Carmouche) is an open seat where two conflicting polls would seem to indicate that (overall we have a single digit lead.  If it’s ours, the 52-88 chasm of 2004 is down to 65-75 with the bulk of the problem being Texas (20-12 in favor of the GOP).  VA and NC not only voted for Obama but elected majority D House delegations (6-5 in VA; 8-5 in NC).  FL went from an awful 18-7 GOP edge to a respectable 15-10.  Remember when we used to wish for a delegation that reflected the state (13-12 or 14-11 at worst).  Well, barring Mahoney’s stupidity we would have had 14-11.  Democrats also picked up 3 Senate seats here with two in VA and one in NC.  At the least, three GOPers look endangered as the Senate cycle ends in 2010: Jim Bunning in KY, Richard Burr in NC, and Mel Martinez in FL.

Obama won 3 southern states compared to 6 for Clinton in both 1992 and 1996 and none for Gore and Kerry.

That leaves two regions that went pretty much unchanged.  Democrats picked up only one seat in 2006 and probably none in 2008 in the Pacific (CA, OR, WA, AK, HI)Pretty bad  They did add 2 Senate seats this year (OR, AK).  CA Republicans scored under 60% in 11 of 19 wins in 2008 (I’m giving them CA-4).

The Plains remains a Republican stronghold but it;s tiny and not gtowing.  Democrats gained two House seats in Iowa and one in Kansas in 2006 but gave back the Kansas seat this year and fell by 8,000 votes in MO-9 and 12,000 in NE-2 (carried by Obama by 3,000 votes so there must be at least 15,000 Obama-Terry voters).  They gained only one Senate seat in MO in 2006.

The edge in the House is still a hefty 11-17 rather than the 9-19 margin of 2004.

So Karl Rove has whipped out “the math” once again to point out that the average number of seats gained by the “out party” in the mid-term year of a president’s first term in office is 23. Eh. First off, in the ten elections which fit this description, the out party has only gained 20 or more seats four times. The median, as you might guess, is a good bit lower – just 17.

But I think reaching back in time as far as Rove does is misleading. Now, Rove of course is always misleading, but this time he’s conning members of his own party into thinking 23 is their due. I’m happy to let them keep believing him. But you, dear SSPers, are smarter than that. And this graphic is all you need:

The above chart shows how many seats the Dems gained or lost each year, going back to 1918, the year in which the direct election of senators began. As you can see, the further to the right you go – ie, the more recent you get – the smaller the amplitude of the curve. In plainer English, the size of the swings from cycle-to-cycle has gotten smaller over time.

Put another way: In the 34 elections from 1918 through 1984, only six times did we see single-digit changes in the number of Democrats in the House. In just 12 elections from 1986 to 2008, there were single-digit shifts nine times. During that time period, the average shift has been less than 13 and the median more like 7.

Still a further way of looking at the phemonenon in the first chart is this:

There are a lot of ways you can slice this apple, but I’ve chosen the simplest. This is simply a running average of the swing in House seats going back to 1918. (That is to say, each point on the line represents the average from 1918 to that date.) The trend is unmistakable – the average swing has been inexorably shrinking for a very long time.

The reasons for this change are multiplex and endlessly debatable. They include, among other things, a mixture of more sophisticated gerrymandering, intensive incumbent-protection programs, and the sharpening of ideological boundaries between the parties following the post-Voting Rights Act realignment.

With this realigning shakeout largely concluded, it’s difficult to see many more wave elections in the near future. If you want to let ancient history be your guide, as Karl Rove does, then sure, big swings look eminently possible, even likely. But the recent past is much more informative, and it looks like we’ve settled into something resembling a pattern of taut stability.

We may yet lose seats in the House in 2010, but I very much doubt as many as the Rover thinks we might. And this almost certainly means that the Republican Party has a difficult slog ahead of it for a long time to come.

UPDATE: I’ve created another chart, this time of the ten-cycle moving average starting in 1936. It’s a little bit “noisier” (not surprisingly), but it also shows the same clear downward trend in swing size:

This year, NC voters were confronted witha Republican ticket headed up by a 72 year old white man running for President and a 72 year old white woman running for the US Senate.  I guess they call that diversity but it was pretty indicative of the seven incumbents (plus McCain)

Republicans running for Federal office in North Carolina (I’m excluding Sarah Pallin as she was essentially a tag a long).

The Congressional loser for the Republicans was 63 year old Robin Hayes.  Hayes was bested by 57 year old Democrat Larry Kissell.  That’s part of the story as 47 year old Barack Obama and 55 year old Kay Hagan whipped the aging Dole and McCain, each 72.

The Congressional winners for NC Republicans included 77 year old Howard Coble, 67 year old Sue Myrick, and two 65 year olds in Walter Jones and Virginia Foxx.  Foxx looks a good deal older than her age having the traditional old grandma look.  Only Patrick McHenry, 33, is younger than the traditional retirement age and even he got an age “Schock.”  McHenry is no longer the youngest House member being badly overtaken by 26 year old wunderkid/brat Aaron Schock of Illinois.

By contrast, two North Carolina Democrats are also clearly agingin 68 year old David Price and 67 year old Bob Etheridge.  GK Butterfield is getting there at 61.  and so is Mel Watt at 63.  Larry Kissell (57), Brad Miller, Mike McIntyre (52) and Kay Hagan (55) are in what would seem prime age for a legislator.  Heath Shuler at 36 is still young and hardly has the ambitious brat reputation of McHenry.

Makes one think of the two curmudgeons from Alaska (Don Young (73?) and Ted Stevens (84).

Yellow for races that haven’t been called (although I have a hard time believing we have any shot at all of toppling Young in Alaska) or in Louisiana’s case, that haven’t been held yet.

Not a bad-looking map, though.

Here goes. Just beacuse.

Presidential Election:



Electoral Votes: Barack Obama 364, John McCain 174

Popular Vote: Obama +6.9

McCain Pickups: None



Obama Pickups: Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, Virgina, North Carolina and Florida

I’m a little unsure about North Carolina and Missouri but I’m going to call them for Barack. I think he’ll come up just short in Indiana, Montana and Georgia.

Gubernatorial Elections:

Republican Pickups: None

Democratic Pickups: Missouri

Not much to see. I think we’ll hold in NC and WA.

Senate Elections:

Republican Pickups: None



Democratic Pickups: Virgina, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, Alaska, Oregon, North Carolina, Minnesota

And I also predict the Georgia Senate race will go into a runoff and Jim Martin will win it but I’ll have final predictions closer to that election.

House Elections:

Republican Pickups: FL-16, TX-22, PA-11

Democratic Pickups: NY-13, AZ-01, VA-11, NY-25, AK-AL, CO-04, FL-24, IL-11, MI-09, MI-07, NY-29, OH-16, OH-15, NC-08, NM-01, NM-02, CA-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-25, ID-01, IL-10, IN-03, LA-04, MD-01, MN-03, MN-06, MO-09, NJ-03, NJ-07, NV-03, OH-01, PA-03, WA-08, AL-02, AZ-03, OH-02, VA-02, VA-05.

Net Democratic Gain: +36

Maybe a little optimistic. But I think that’s going to be pretty close.

There really isn’t a lot left to say as we head into the final 24 hours of the campaign.  First, and most important, Kelly, Amanda and I want to thank everyone who has helped in any way with the campaign.  The one thing I will take away from this experience, regardless of the outcome on Tuesday, is the people I’ve met, the communities I’ve visited and the stories we’ve shared.

It has also been encouraging how many people have stepped up over the last 2 weeks to help with donations to the campaign.  Once our opponent got desperate and decided to go negative there were many people and organizations who stepped up and sent in late donations.  These late donations allowed us to expand our media advertising and create a second TV ad to combat the distortions coming from our opponent’s campaign.  

I think once they realized they offered no ideas or solutions for the 5th district, the only way they could win was to trot out the usual wedge issues and scare the voters into thinking I’m someone that I’m not.  Now we know how Barack Obama feels.

I want to close out this campaign on a positive note.  

Keep encouraging everyone you know to get out and vote on Tuesday.  Remind them that while the top of the ballot for President is the race everyone is interested in, the next most important race is the 5th district race.  This is our chance to reverse 8 years of bad policy and take our future back.   Tuesday will be historical and we can be part of it by sending a Democrat to Congress from the 5th district for the first time in 30 years.  Most important to remember — the Democratic message throughout the long campaign has been a positive one stressing HOPE and CHANGE.

Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

I participated in several additional debates / forums with the other 2 candidates for the 5th district seat this week.   There was really nothing new to report as both my opponents stayed on script with the expected answers to the usual questions.   After going through this process, I am pleased that we did so many debates across the 5th district.   Voters across the district had many opportunities to come out and see the candidates in person and hear where we stand on the issues.  

We had a great GOTV rally in Clarion on Saturday with a nice turnout of people from the Clarion area including members of the Clarion University Young Democrats and members from the IUPAT union.  I was honored to share the stage with PA House candidate Matt Ellenberger, Clarion County Democratic Chairman Bill Miller and IUPAT National President James Williams.

I had 2 big highlights this week — Meeting former President Bill Clinton in State College and meeting our next Vice President, Senator Joe Biden at a rally in Williamsport.

Mark meets and receives the endorsement of Bill Clinton.

Meeting our next VP Joe Biden in Williamsport.

It was an honor to meet both of these great men and it is something I will always remember.  I learned that Senator Biden and I have something in common.  He also served as a county commissioner in Delaware before he was elected to the United States Senate.  

Here is a picture from the rally in Williamsport that appeared in the Lock Haven newspaper.

The gathering in Williamsport.

Schedule for Upcoming Week:

Monday — 7 PM —  DuBois Democratic Committee Meeting

Tuesday  — Election Day

Wednesday & Beyond — To Be Decided by the Voters in the 5th District.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Let me tell ya something: the Ohio Electoral college vote (20) and one or maybe even two of the U.S. House races might NOT be decided on Tuesday.

They will be so close that it will go the provisional ballots which will not be counted for two weeks.

You cannot believe how close the race is here… AGAIN.

Good things to know: In 2006, Governor Ted Strickland carried many, MANY precincts AND counties (ours, for example) that had been controlled by the GOP for 12 years. Under our screwy election laws, this means that we now control the deciding votes of all of those precinct poll workers and county boards of election. (Half Dems, half GOP, tie breaker to us.)

Because we now control the “presiding Judge” in all of the precincts that Ted carried, many people might get to vote OR might avoid being forced to vote a provisional ballot, who in the past, might have been hassled.

The big problem here has been that FAR too many people were discouraged from voting on Election Day OR were unnecessarily forced to vote with a provo ballot. Having Democrats making the deciding “on the spot” judgment, might reduce both of those problems.

HOWEVER, on the other hand, this election will attract MANY more would be voters than usual, and many of them are those who will run afoul of our idiotic GOP mandated I.D. and proof of residency rules.

If the outcome of the Ohio Electoral college vote is in doubt (or any U.S. House races) expect billable hours for GOP lawyers to be in the millions.

This is the first presidential election under Ohio’s new “no excuse needed” early and absentee ballot law. Early turnout has been steady. There was excellent turnout during our one week window in October when you could both register and vote on one trip to the board of elections. Then as the election has gotten closer, there have been mounting numbers of early voters.

In addition, we have a GREAT Democrat as Secretary of State. The GOP has filed a slew of court actions to try and manipulate the election, but they have LOST every time. So, in the end the forces of Truth and Goodness will prevail.

But it won’t be Tuesday night.

Which means, we might not have a decision on the Presidency OR the U.S. House for weeks, maybe more.

But having Judge Brunner in control of our state voting apparatus is a Good Thing. Her solid competence has stopped the GOP vote suppression effort, in it’s tracks, again and again.

This post summarizes James Hell’s amazing work since August tracking independent expenditures on House races. Note that this does not include direct expenditures by party committees (like we saw the other day from the DCCC in NJ-05 & FL-18) or electioneering communications by 527’s like Freedom’s Crotch (the FEC’s database is all but unnavigable).

We do, however, include spending by many third-party groups, not just the DCCC and NRCC. In fact, we’ve tracked spending by forty-six different organizations, some of which you’ve heard of, many of which are obscure. The list includes the Veterans of Foreign Wars, the Safari Club, SEIU, the National Association of Realtors, the Michigan Republican Party and many, many more. (Scroll down to the key at the bottom for the complete list.)

And all of these groups made choices, whether to support Team Red or Team Blue. Some supported both. At the end of the day, though, Democrats completely and utterly swamped the field. Here’s a brief run-down of the sixty-nine districts which saw serious spending this cycle (note: we excluded a handful of districts where aggregate spending was under about $20K):

Total spending on Dem-held seats:

     Blue: $18,588,000

     Red: $6,035,000

Total spending on GOP-held seats:

     Blue: $66,849,000

     Red: $22,898,000

Total spending on all seats:

     Blue: $85,437,000

     Red: $28,933,000

Below the fold are two tables of district-by-district spending. The first lists Dem-held seats, the second lists GOP-held seats. Both are sorted by total amount spent in the district. Note that averages only take into account seats where a side actually spent money.

Spending in Dem-held seats: