NY-26: Powers picks up Kerrey’s endorsement; Davis to run again?

Another day, another big endorsement for Jon Powers.

Today, the Powers campaign announced that former U.S. Senator and 9/11 Commission member Bob Kerrey has endorsed Jon Powers in his race for Tom Reynolds’ seat in New York’s 26th congressional district:

“With the utter lack of accountability we’ve seen in Washington these past several years, Congress desperately needs more leaders like Jon Powers, “Kerrey said. “I’m endorsing Jon Powers for Congress because he leads by example, calls things as he sees them, and is dedicated to getting things done.”

“Throughout his exemplary service in the US Army, Jon Powers was recognized for his ability to solve difficult problems and achieve real results,” said Kerrey. “These days, it’s disappointingly rare when any of us can say the same of Congress or the federal government.”

“Especially in times like these, Washington needs – and New York will benefit from – Jon Powers’ refreshing style of leadership-by-example.”

More on the flip.

This comes nearly the same day as a story about Jack Davis was in the Buffalo News. Apparently, Davis is seriously considering a third run for the 26th district:

While many observers had expected Davis to bypass a third run at Reynolds, his consideration of another campaign looms as a major development in an increasingly crowded race. Iraq War veteran Jonathan Powers has been organizing a Democratic candidacy since early 2007, while Buffalo attorney Alice J. Kryzan has also been raising money and solidifying support.

Davis said he is aware of his two possible opponents in a Democratic primary but said he has no doubt that his considerable wealth would enable him to defeat both.

“If he wants to run a primary against me, it’s a free country,” he said of Powers. “But I don’t think I will have any trouble beating him.”

A few things here.

(1) Davis is essentially saying that he can beat Powers and Alice Kryzan with his pocketbook. This is true: He does have more money than these two. But his only problem is that he doesn’t campaign. In talking with members of the Davis team in 2006, Davis refused to get out and work. He didn’t go door-to-door and he certainly didn’t visit the rural counties.

(2) Anyone who knows anything about Western New York politics knows that Len Lenihan is self-serving and only cares about one thing: Len Lenihan. He made quite a reputation for himself with the rural counties in WNY when he (and the Erie County Republican chair) made the decision on who would run for State Supreme Court in the 8th Judicial District. The problem? There’s eight counties in this JD. So one county (one large county, I might add) made the decision for the other seven.

(3) Over the next seven days, I will have seen Jon Powers more than I ever saw Jack Davis (or Alice Kryzan for that matter). Jon is accessible. Jack Davis was never that way. I made three trips to Davis’s factory in Akron, NY and never saw him once. To be specific, I’ve never met Jack Davis.

Jon has worked hard – very hard. This is how I view the race:

Powers: He’s accessible and he’s truly campaigning. He’s raising money locally and nationally and he reaches out to the rural counties. He didn’t get the rural endorsements from Genesee and Orleans counties because he just sat in Erie County for the past six months. He got those endorsements because he visits regularly. He will be at a local Powers for Congress house party and I will be attending a fundraiser for Jon next Wednesday.

Kryzan: Two things that really turned me off with Kryzan from the start. She defended Hooker/Occidental Chemical in the “Love Canal” debacle and she contributed $250 to Tom Reynolds in 2000. Game. Set. Match.

Davis: Okay, he has a lot of money… but that’s all he’s got. He’s not a progressive. The story is that he turned Democrat because he was angry after not being able to meet Dick Cheney. I don’t know how true that is, but it would fit. He is, at best, a moderate Democrat. What he really is is a disgruntled Republican just looking to run on the other party’s line.

The 26th will be a madhouse. I thought we were supposed to be putting the best candidate forward to beat Tom Reynolds?  

PA-05: GOP Rep. John Peterson to Retire

(I’m not too embarrassed to admit that I’ve never heard of this GOP crumb-bum until today. – promoted by James L.)

Being in the minority sucks. GOP Rep. John Peterson of PA-05 is expected to announce his retirement today.

Two Republican officials with knowledge of the decision said Peterson was expected to announce his retirement. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they did not want to pre-empt the congressman’s announcement, which was anticipated later Thursday.

No indication yet why he’s leaving exactly, but he’ll turn 70 this year.

Peterson was re-elected in 2006 with 60% of the vote, underpolling Bush by less than 1%. This is rough, red country to be certain (R+10), but it does include State College.

2006 challenger Don Hilliard says in a comment on Race Tracker Wiki:

Please note my name is Don Hilliard. I ran against Congressman Peterson in 2006 and intend to do so again in 2008. Please add me to your site. Thank you.

UPDATE: Wikipedia on Peterson’s environmental record:

Peterson received the lowest possible environmental rating from the nonpartisan League of Conservation Voters in 2006, casting what the group qualified as anti-environment votes on twelve out of twelve critical issues ranging from oil drilling offshore and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, salvage logging and logging roads, and the Clean Water Act, to the Toxics Release Inventory program and low-income energy assistance. The conservative environmental group Republicans for Environmental Protection singled out Peterson as “Worst in the House in 2006” on environmental issues. In addition to assigning the representative a score of zero for his voting record, REP censured him individually for “efforts to remove the moratorium on Outer Continental Shelf gas drilling through the Interior appropriations process.” According to the League of Conservation Voters, “natural gas drilling can create massive amounts of water and air pollution and can leave open the possibility of oil spills, which would be toxic for a wide variety of marine and coastal life.”

Good riddance!

UPDATE #2: It’s official.

Peterson said in a statement released by his office that he desires to spend more time with his family in Pleasantville. He said his retirement is effective at the end of his current term.

Wow, it’s like Republicans all over congress are suddenly remembering how much they love their families! I guess being on the Appropriations committee isn’t as fun when you’re in the minority.

Your thoughts?

Congressional races by state: IL

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX and OH, which having filing deadlines coming up.  Today, Illinois, where filing is already closed.

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

Illinois has 19 congressional districts

10 are held by Democrats, 9 by Republicans (sort of odd in a state that has, arguably, the most liberal senate delegation).

The 10 held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?       rating

1        D+35    .07         Rush            Yes                Safe

2        D+35    .10         Jackson         No

3        D+10    .43         Lipinski        Yes (and primary!) Fairly              

                                                               safe

4        D+31    .29         Gutierrez       No

5        D+18    .37         Emmanuel        No

7        D+35    .07         Davis           No (primary)        Safe

8        R+5     .61         Bean            Yes (and primary)   Vul.

9        D+20    .18         Schakowsky      Yes                 Safe

12       D+5     .44         Costello        Yes                 moderate

17       D+5     .56         Hare            No

notes: Lipinski deserves to be primaried

The only race that is at all likely to go Repub is Bean, in IL08.

The 17th might have changed, but there’s no challenger.

All nine Republican seats are being contested (woot! woot!) some details

IL-06 R+2.9 .53

The 6th is the western suburbs of Chicago

Roskam was first elected in 2006, replacing the odious Henry Hyde.  He won a close (5,000 votes) and very expensive (combined spending $8 million) race against Tammy Duckworth.

There are two challengers: Jill Morgenthaler and Stan Jagla

IL-10 D+4 .67

The 10th is the north shore suburbs of Chicago, a very high income area (median income = $71,663).

Kirk, first elected in 2000, is one of the most moderate Republicans in the House. In 2006 he beat Dan Seals 53%-47%, outspending Seals 2-1.

Seals is running again, as is Jay Footlik , although Seals looks like the favorite.  Seals is also raking in the money, raising $300K in the third quarter.

IL-11 R+1.1 .65

The 11th is shaped like a T, with its base in Bloomington and Normal, and its upper right bar ending in Joliet and Kankakee.

Weller, first elected in 1994, is retiring.  In 2006, he won 55-45 against John Pavich, whom he outspent more than 3-1.  

The Democratic candidate is Debbie Halvorsen , and there are three Republicans in a primary; Halvorsen is the majority leader of the state senate.  This is winnable! Bush actually got less than 50% in 2000 (adding Gore and Nader); Weller did much better, but he was an incumbent with a big war-chest.  And his margins keep getting smaller: 2002 – 64%, 2004 – 59%, 2006 – 55%.

IL-13 R+5 .67

The 13th is the western suburbs of Chicago.

Biggert, first elected in 1998, looks increasingly vulnerable. In 2002 she got 70%, 2004 – 65%, and 2006 – 58%.  In 2006, she outspent challenger Joseph Shannon by more than 4-1. This year she faces a primary and then

Scott Halper .

IL-14 R+5 .68

The 14th runs almost the entire width of IL, from the far western suburbs of Chicago almost to the IA border.

Hastert, the former speaker, has resigned! Bye Dennis! We won’t miss you! Say hi to the family!

There are primaries in both parties, but the Democratic favorite has to be John Laesch , who got 40% against Hastert in 2006, even though Hastert raised $5 million to Laesch’s $300,000.  The primary is Feb 5th, and then a special election March 8. Laesch is also a kossack

IL-15 R+6 .62

The 15th is the eastern middle of IL, centering on Champaign and Urbana.

Johnson, first elected in 2000, has managed to win relatively easily without massive spending, twice beating David Gill.

This year, the challenger is Steve Cox.

IL-16 R+4 .67

The 16th is the northern edge of IL, all along the border with WI and IA.

Manzullo, first elected in 1992, has not been seriously challenged.

The challenger is Robert Aboud , a nuclear engineer and businessman.

IL-18 R+5.5 .66

The 18th is more or less in the middle of the state, including Springfield and Jacksonville.

LaHood, first elected in 1994, is retiring.

It’s not clear who, if anyone, is challenging from the Democratic side…local help, please?

IL-19 R+8 .76

The 19th is most of the southern end of IL, including Centralia

Shimkus, first elected in 1996, has not been seriously challenged since, winning easily without raising huge amounts, although in 2006, Danny Stover got 39% with only $166,000.

There are several Democratic challengers (see the link).

Summary

Only one Democratic seat looks in danger.

Six Republican seats do.

Ohio Congressional Candidates still needed

Candidate filing in Ohio closes in less than a week – 4th January – and we still don’t have confirmed candidates in a number of Congressional House districts!

Once again go and take a look at the  

2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Below the fold for details………….

Ohio has 18 Congressional House districts. 7 are held by Democrats who are all at this stage running again as follows: (Note that I have included the Cook PVI scores for each district also.)

OH-06 – D+0,

OH-09 – D+9,

OH-10 – D+6,

OH-11 – D+33,

OH-13 – D+6,

OH-17 – D+14,

OH-18 – R+6,

That leaves 11 Republican held districts.

There are confirmed challengers in 8 of those 11 districts:

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

And an unconfirmed challenger in 1 district:

OH-05 – R+10,

That leaves two districts with no confirmed candidate

And here they are:

OH-04 – R+14,

Not a peep no candidate here.

OH-08 – R+12,

Not a peep no candidate here.

Less than a week to go and we need 2 candidates – do you know anyone that could run?

Texas Congressional candidates still needed

Texas Democrats are stepping up to the plate in increasing numbers as congressional House candidates but there are still a number of races without confirmed candidates!

Once again go and take a look at the  

2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Below the fold for details………….

Texas has 32 Congressional House districts. 13 are held by Democrats of which 11 have officially filed as follows: (Note that I have included the Cook PVI scores for each district also.)

TX-09 – D+21,

TX-15 – D+3,

TX-16 – D+9,

TX-17 – R+18,

TX-22 – R+15,

TX-23 – R+4,

TX-25 – D+1,

TX-27 – R+1,

TX-28 – R+1,

TX-29 – D+8,

TX-30 – D+26,

The following 2 Democratic incumbents haven’t filed yet but are expected to do so.

TX-18 – D+23,

TX-20 – D+8,

That leaves 19 Republican held districts and 10 of these have filed candidates:

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

4 further districts have confirmed candidates that are yet to file officially:

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

And two further districts have unconfirmed candidates:

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-21 – R+13,

That leaves 3 districts with no candidate!

And here they are:

TX-01 – R+17,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

TX-02 – R+12,

Conrad Allen announced that he was forming an exploratory committee, set up a campaign website (now defunct) and disappeared off the face of the earth.

TX-14 – R+14,

We had a candidate then he switched parties!

(2006 candidate is out.)

Less than a week to go and we need 3 candidates – do you know anyone that could run?

Texas congressional house candidates – an update

Candidate filing in Texas closes on January 2; less than a week away and we still have a number of congressional districts with no Democratic candidate!

*** SOME GAPS FILLED BUT MORE CANDIDATES NEEDED ***

Once again go and take a look at the  

2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Below the fold for details………….

Texas has 32 Congressional House districts. 13 are held by Democrats of which 10 have officially filed as follows: (Note that I have included the Cook PVI scores for each district also.)

TX-09 – D+21,

TX-15 – D+3,

TX-16 – D+9,

TX-17 – R+18,

TX-22 – R+15,

TX-23 – R+4,

TX-27 – R+1,

TX-28 – R+1,

TX-29 – D+8,

TX-30 – D+26,

The following 3 Democratic incumbents haven’t filed yet but are expected to do so.

TX-18 – D+23,

TX-20 – D+8,

TX-25 – D+1,

That leaves 19 Republican held districts and 7 of these have filed candidates:

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

5 further districts have confirmed candidates that are yet to file officially:

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

And two further districts have unconfirmed candidates:

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-21 – R+13,

That leaves 5 districts with no candidate!

And here they are:

TX-01 – R+17,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

TX-02 – R+12,

Conrad Allen announced that he was forming an exploratory committee, set up a campaign website (now defunct) and disappeared off the face of the earth.

TX-12 – R+14,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

TX-14 – R+14,

We had a candidate then he switched parties!

(2006 candidate is out.)

TX-19 – R+25,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

Less than a week to go and we need 5 candidates – do you know anyone that could run?

Texas filing closes soon – a call for candidates

Candidate filing in Texas closes on January; a mere week and a bit away and we still have a number of congressional districts with no Democratic candidate!

Once again go and take a look at the  

2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Below the fold for details………….

Texas has 32 Congressional House districts. 13 are held by Democrats of which 9 have officially filed as follows: (Note that I have included the Cook PVI scores for each district also.)

TX-09 – D+21,

TX-15 – D+3,

TX-16 – D+9,

TX-17 – R+18,

TX-22 – R+15,

TX-23 – R+4,

TX-27 – R+1,

TX-28 – R+1,

TX-29 – D+8,

The following 4 Democratic incumbents haven’t filed yet but are expected to do so.

TX-18 – D+23,

TX-20 – D+8,

TX-25 – D+1,

TX-30 – D+26,

That leaves 19 Republican held districts and 6 of these have filed candidates:

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

Four further districts have confirmed candidates that are yet to file officially:

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-32 – R+11,

And two further districts have unconfirmed candidates:

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

That leaves seven districts with no candidate!

And here they are:

TX-01 – R+17,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

TX-02 – R+12,

Conrad Allen announced that he was forming an exploratory committee, set up a campaign website (now defunct) and disappeared off the face of the earth.

TX-12 – R+14,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

TX-14 – R+14,

We had a candidate then he switched parties!

(2006 candidate is out.)

TX-19 – R+25,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

TX-21 – R+13,

Not a peep of a candidate here!

TX-24 – R+15,

According to a comment at Daily Kos a real estate mogul Bill Eden has filed. He hasn’t yet filed with the TDP or the FEC.

Less than a month to go and we need 7 candidates – do you know anyone that could run?

VA-11: Davis’ Campaign Manager to Quit

Evidence of Tom Davis’ impending retirement continues to mount. Red Virginia is reporting that Davis’ campaign manager will soon be on his way out.

Tom’s campaign manager Nick Meads is rumored to be leaving the campaign and returning to his home state of Pennsylvania. This is a HUGE LOSS on top of Foreman and the 2 Chris’s. Who is next, Dave Thomas???

I think it’s a matter of when Davis has his next job lined up before he formally announces the obvious.

Ohio call to action – Congressional candidates needed.

Last week it was Texas, this week Ohio.

Candidate filing in Ohio closes in less than a month – 4th January – and we still don’t have confirmed candidates in a number of Congressional House districts!

Once again go and take a look at the  

2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Below the fold for details………….

Ohio has 18 Congressional House districts. 7 are held by Democrats who are all at this stage running again as follows: (Note that I have included the Cook PVI scores for each district also.)

OH-06 – D+0,

OH-09 – D+9,

OH-10 – D+6,

OH-11 – D+33,

OH-13 – D+6,

OH-17 – D+14,

OH-18 – R+6,

That leaves 11 Republican held districts.

There are confirmed challengers in 7 of those 11 districts:

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

That leaves four districts with no confirmed candidate

And here they are:

OH-03 – R+3,

Charles Sanders, Jane Mitakides and Dave Esrati are collecting signatures but they are not yet confirmed.

OH-04 – R+14,

Not a peep no candidate here.

OH-05 – R+10,

Is Robin Weirauch running again?

OH-08 – R+12,

Not a peep no candidate here.

Less than a month to go and we need 4 candidates – do you know anyone that could run?