Tag: House

Candidate filing is sailing along with 5 states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

CA-25 – R+7,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-25 – R+4,

KY-01 – R+10,

NE-02 – R+9,

SC-01 – R+10,

VA-07 – R+11,

But one more race will have an unopposed Republican incumbent in November:

KY-05 – R+8 (our candidate is running for the Senate),

So 381 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 148 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 148

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2

Districts with rumoured candidates – 17

Districts without any candidates – 28

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 7

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-14 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

NE-02 – R+9,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

SC-01 – R+10,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

FL-18 – R+4,

MT-AL – R+11,

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

AL-02 – R+13,

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

LA-04 – R+7,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

ID-02 – R+19,

IN-05 – R+20,

LA-05 – R+10,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-10 – R+4,

MO-08 – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

OK-01 – R+13,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

UT-01 – R+26,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-04 – R+5,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 23 states with a full slate, and 15 states with one race to fill! And then there is Kentucky where filing has finished leaving 1 vacancy. That is more than 3/4 of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 8 1/2 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-06 and WI-06; 7 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! Of the other 3 TX-11 will again go uncontested whilst VA-04 and AL-06 do not currently have Democratic candidates.

We were on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006 but with the Texas debacle it now seems unlikely.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

As many of you may know, John Laesch held a press conference this morning to discuss the unresolved election in IL-14.  At this point Laesch still trails his primary opponent by 355 votes in the general primary, although all the absentee ballots are not counted (in fact, County Clerks must wait until February 19th for their return) and there is still an outstanding question as to whether all the provisional ballots have been counted in all nine counties.

John Laesch has conceded the special primary to his opponent, who will run against Republican nominee Jim Oberweis on March 8 to decide who will fill the remaining ten months of Hastert’s term, but he has not conceded the general primary, which is still undecided until all votes are counted.  This morning Laesch held a press conference to answer the many questions the campaign has been bombarded with regarding his intentions.  I attended it.  And since the campaign has made it clear they will make no further statements, I will share my observations and the text of his remarks below.

First I’ll say that I spent election night in the Laesch for Congress office.  That was Tuesday.  John spoke to his supporters that night and, in response to a question from a reporter as to whether he would concede the special primary said that he would.  I recall that no one, not the AP, not the Trib, not a single Chicago TV station, was willing to call the regular primary that night – nor have they yet that I can discover – with so close a margin and no idea what military, absentee, and provisional ballots might be outstanding.  John certainly did not concede that race, and spoke about the need to look at those details the next day.  

My interpretation of this was that Laesch was conceding the special primary and not conceding the general primary – an interpretation that the media present then seems to share.  But I discovered the next day that, in an experience uncommon for me, as I have worked for the campaign in the past and have personal friends on staff – and in fact count John and Jen as personal friends by this point – that the lid, as they say, was on.  I couldn’t get another word out of anyone.  They maintained with me that there simply wasn’t anything going on beyond counting every vote, and until that was done, no decisions could be made.  I also needed to look no further than out my window to realize that several of the county clerk’s offices were closed, because of the rampaging blizzard going on, so there was no way anything like a normal canvass could proceed.

Heh.  So I went to the press conference.  

Al Nowakowski, a member of the campaign’s communications team, took the mike first and surprised at least me by introducing of all people Ben Mullenbach.  While some of you would readily recognize his DKos uid if I threw it out, I won’t.  Suffice it to say Ben spoke so eloquently and movingly of the simple fact that he was John Laesch’s very first volunteer, going up to him and pledging him his help after the very first political speech John ever made, and while Ben was still a sophomore in high school that I was amazed and suspect more Kossacks than I would be hoping Ben runs for office one day if they had heard it.  

I know Ben from way back in the ’06 campaign, and while I always knew he was always there doing a myriad of tasks, I was amazed because he goes diligently and rather seriously about whatever work is underway and this is a side of him that was new to me.  He spoke, without reference to notes or prepared text that I could see, about why John had so moved him to volunteer and it was so apparent he spoke for many of us, and moved all of us, who had, at various points in the last cycle or this, followed him in dedicating our support to John.  The campaign has not posted the audio of Ben, as I am writing this, but I feel they should.  I hope they do.  At the end of Ben’s remarks he introduced State Senator Mike Noland.

Senator Noland’s first remark was to ask how he could possibly follow that!  Senator Noland, himself pretty widely known throughout our area as a true grassroots candidate, compared John to, as he termed it, another Illinois politician, Obama, in that they have an uncommon ability to connect with the voters, which pretty much sent the crowd into a really wild round of applause.  Noland said something to the effect that one of the things he admired about John was that he was a fighter and would not give up easily.  I wish they had posted this on the campaign’s website as well, because I am struggling to recall all of Noland’s inspiring remarks, but suffice it to say that I approached him after the event to tell him I do not live in his district, but envy those who do.  Let’s just hope a video goes up on YouTube soon – there were a lot of cameras in the room.  In the meantime, I’ll just add that Noland introduced John, and offer the full text of John’s remarks below, and a link to the audio on the campaign website.

To the best of my recollection, John meticulously followed the text of these remarks.  I noted it strongly at the time, because as his media coordinator in ’06, I am well aware of the possibility probability inevitability that John will set aside his remarks and begin to speak extemporaneously.  Thankfully, he does that remarkably well, so I soon got over the near heart-attack it caused me the first few times he did so, but I could not fail to note that he was being uncharacteristically careful to stick to his prepared text.

“Let me begin by congratulating Bill Foster in his special election win.

We will be cheering him on in the special election.

This is what we know with respect to the regular primary election that was held on February 5th.

Currently, we know that there is a difference of 355 votes out of 75,000 votes cast in a historic Democratic turnout for this district. This is less than 1 vote per precinct.

Yesterday, February 7th was the first day when election officials could begin to count provisional ballots. As of today, there are a significant number of provisional and absentee ballots that remain uncounted.

We have been in close contact with officials in the 9 jurisdictions throughout the 14th Congressional District. And I would like to express my appreciation to all of the election judges who had to deal with the challenges that came with three elections in a very short period of time. It has been challenging for many of them and we are grateful for their continued effort to help us resolve some of the unknowns as we await the process.

By Illinois Statute, provisional and absentee ballots must be counted by February 19th. The regular primary must be certified by March 7th.

While we are awaiting the official election results, we remain committed to the Democratic process.

The next question I would like to answer is what is next for John Laesch?

I became involved in electoral politics because I disagreed with 2003 pre-emptive war policy and invasion of Iraq. I chose to run for United States Congress in 2005 after my brother received his orders to go to Baghdad. I have stated consistently that I will remain involved in electoral politics until every single U.S. soldier is safely home from Iraq.

My younger brother, Sgt. Pete Laesch voted with an absentee ballot on February 5th.

As of today, my brother’s vote has not been counted.

We have no choice but to await the final results of the February 5th Primary Election.”

I saw Dem County Chairs and PCPs there, and I saw volunteers I recognized and supporters I did not.  There were residents as from as far away as the farthest western edge of IL-14, almost at the Iowa Border, there were labor leaders, and Latino leaders, and Dem movers and shakers of virtually every category you could imagine.  They were obviously and sincerely enthusiastic in their support for this speech.  At one point, the crowd of supporters even broke out in a chant of “every vote counts.”

John’s answers in the Q&A also struck me as very concise and controlled for John – there was not a quip to be heard and there was no back and forth chit-chat involved.

The inevitable question came up as to whether John would ask his supporters to work for his recent opponent in the special election.  Laesch answered that every Democrat should support the Democrat on the ballot, then added: “I am a Democrat” which drew another round of applause.

After the speech, people just didn’t want to seem to leave.  I stepped out front onto the sidewalk of busy Downer Street in Aurora with a friend, so we could try to hear each other talk.  As we were talking a pickup stopped in the street, stalling traffic, and the driver leaned out the window and shouted “What did he decide?  What did he decide?” and I said “To wait for the votes to be counted.”

“Good,” he shouted, and looking over his shoulder at the backed-up traffic yelled “I gotta go” and drove on.  

cross-posted to Fireside14, PrairieStateBlue, OpenLeft, MyDD and DailyKos

The 2006 midterm elections took a big bite out of Northeast Republicans.  They went from contributing 35 seats to the majority party to providing just 24 seats to the minority.  Many survived by the skin of their teeth and others were not targeted in districts with a Democratic lean or a small Republican lean.  So how have the suruvivors fared?  I have compared the most recent fund raising report with the year end totals from 2005 (the same spot in the 2006 cycle).  Both a dummary report and a more detailed explaination follow.

The 24 Republicans as a group have 22.6% less cash on hand than 2 years ago ($12,702,583 vs. $16,403,287).  The average GOP member from this group has a balance of $529,274 compared to $683,470 two years ago.  Four members from this group have announced their retirement.  Two of those four have a slightly higher balance but two have much lower balances.  In addition, Tom Reynolds had a balance of $2.3 million as head of the NRCC;  he’s at $862 K now.  Still, the numbers are lower, even after adjustments.

Individual results follow below the fold:

CT  Chris Shays, CT 4

Shays is the only one of 3 CT Republicans to survive the last election.  In fact, the moderate congressman from the NYC suburbs is the last Republican House member from New England.  Shays has run a bunch of expensive and exhausting but ultimately successful re-electioin campaigns.  This time around, he’s facing Jim Himes and his fund raising is lagging.  At $797,413, Shays is down $95,000 from two years ago.  Of course, Joe Lieberman will not be campaigning for him either.

NY  Peter King, NY-3

Last cycle, Democrats hoped to entice a name opponent to take on King but failed.  Dave Mejias still managed to take a big bite out of King’s sizeable stash of cash.  Two years ago, King was a committee chairman and a “millionaire” (cash on hand of $1,058,043).  Now the chair is gone and cash is down more than 40% to $604,240.  Peter King is considerably weakened.

NY  Vito Fossella, NY-13

Fossella has come back from the dead, raising $304,000 to bring his cash up from $50,000 to $250,000 in the last quarter of 2007.  That said, Fossella is greatly weaker than two years ago.  Then, he had $572,952; now it’s $250,501.  A good candidate can take him out.  A medium candidate might but would probably drain him to the breaking point.  

NY  John McHugh,  NY-23

McHugh has been rumored to be a possible retiree.  Maybe one reason is his fund raising.  The veteran incumbent has uist $203,402 a drop of nearly 50% from two years ago.  Hmm.

NY  James Walsh,  NY-25

Walsh had a very tight battle against Dan Maffei in 2006 and this looked like a re-match.  Except that Walsh decided to retire.  Walsh had managed to keep pace with last cycle ($511,611 to $508,704 in 2005).  Maffei will have a huge edge over any fill-in.

NY  Tom Reynolds, NY-26

Reynolds was head of the NRCC last cycle and actually did a good job in a thankless assignment.  Compare his results to Liddy Dole (dollars, won-lost).  Reynolds managed to save more seats than were lost. Dole lost everything but Kentucky and had to get massive help from the RNC.  Still, Reynolds was raising national bucks two years ago and is not, now.  That means that Jon Powers may have a good shot in what was a 52-48 district last cycle.  $862,809 vs. $2,351,883 in 2006.

NY  Randy Kuhl, NY-29

Kuhl is a two termer who is struggling in a decent district for NYS Republicans.  It shows in the fund-raising.  Kuhl has $326,513 vs. $389,128 in 2005.  Shot gun Randy is vulnerable to Eric Massa.  Rumor had Randy expecting to lose his last general election.  Maybe this is the time.

NJ  Frank LoBiondo,  NJ-2

The district leans Democratic but LoBiondo had the support of local labor unions against a weak local Democrat.  That may not be the case as Jeff Van Drew, a “hot” state senator, is considering a run.  Lo Biondo has a nice stash ($1,391,321) but less than two years ago ($1,628,568).  It’s doable.  Too bad he wasn’t drained a bit more.

NJ  Jim Saxton,  NJ-3

Saxton is also running in a tough district.  Only he decided to hang it up.  Saxton’s treasure chest of $1,079,955 will (at best for the GOP) be spread out a bit.  That’s down from a hefty $1,434,892 but Jim was still a million dollar man.  Looking very good here as the Democrats have their preferred candidate.

NJ  Chris Smith,  NJ-4

Smith is up but still vulnerable.  He’s got a tough district and just $401,066 in the bank.  And yes, last quarter he was fund raising.  Smith was at just $225,195 last cycle.

NJ  Scott Garrett,  NJ-5

Garrett was first elected with 61% theen fell to 58% and 55% last cycle. He is way out of touch with his moderate district and would fit in with the deep south.  Any other Republican would breeze here.  Garrett?  Maybe not.  So, he has $352,001 this cycle vs. $291,452.  Last time around, reluctance to fund a challenger who had a primary badly hurt Paul Aronsohn who had to overcome Camille Abate.  This time around blind rabbi Ben Shulman also is hamstrung by the presence of Abate.  These “rules” are keeping the winger Garrett alive.  A little flexibility, guys?  (or drop out Camille).

NJ  Rodney Frelinghuysen,  NJ-11

Frelinghuysen’s family held a NJ House seat in the 1700s.  And the 1800s.  And the 1900s,  And the 2000s.  Still, in a district that mainly covers Morris County, Rodney has less cash to play with.  $551,141 vs. $751,195.  Rodney has tended to spread excess cash in $2,000 donations to candidates around the country.  This gives him far less clout than by using the NRCC but Rodney does it.  Maybe he’ll have less to spend this time.  Maybe Tom Wyka will gain a few points in a very slowly blue-ing district (i live there and it’s a long climb).

PA  Phil English,  PA-3

English represents northwest PA.  It is a district where Bush got 54% and English got 53% in 2006 against a lackluster opponent.  English has significantly bolstered his cash this time around as he tries to hold on against the tide.  He’s got $537,340 vs. $323,253 in 2005.  English is a massive guy and rumors do swirl of personal scandal. So this one is not perfectly safe.

PA  John Peterson, PA-5

Peterson is not a massive fundraiser.  He’s retired leaving a modest $117,457 in the kitty.

That’s slightly more than the 2005 sum of $114,865.

PA  Jim Gerlach,  PA-6

Gerlach is off two tight races but seems to be running out of gas.  Or cash.  Without a marquis opponent, he’s got just $500,238 vs. $1,074,827.  Are his days in the House numbered?

PA  Bill Shuster,  PA-9

Shuster is referred to as Bud Lite, because he is the son (and legacy) of ex-Congressman Bud Shuster.  The cash is low ($188,177)but more than last cycle ($138,699).  Time to give the pipsqueak a run?  (one of the great political nicknames was given to Thomas P. O’Neil III, Tip’s son: “tipsqueak”, he aged into the nose, too).

PA  Charles Dent,  PA-15

Dent nearly ran unopposed but a candidate who needed a write-in to make the ballot gave him a hard time in a Democratic lean district.  He’s certainly expecting a harder time this time around but is in the same cash situation.  COH is $535,091 vs. $542,891.  Is this the year the Lehigh Valley goes back blue (it was during the Clinton years).?

PA  Joe Potts,  PA-16

Potts has a decent stash in a friendly district but it is still down from two years ago.  It’s $175,897 vs. $283,335.  Is Joe starting to wind it down?  

PA  Tim Murphy,  PA-18

Murphy has the most cash of any Pennsylvania Republican in the House.  That’s actually a scary thing as it indicates that people like English, Gerlach, and Dent are in trouble.  For stat hounds, Murphy’s balance of $663,484 is down from the $685,083 of two years ago.  Bad news for Gerlach who was way ahead in this race two years ago.

PA  Todd Platts,  PA-19

Platts is the limbo incumbent.  How low can you go?  In Todd’s case it is an anemic $59,032, the lowest figure for any Republican incumbent in the region.  Todd has just $132,025 two years ago so this is nothing new.  he makes lists but so far no waves.

MD   Wayne Gilchrest,  MD-1

The moderate Gilchrest is anti-war and that’s enough to stir up a primary challenge.  It also got Wayne to fund raise a bit in a normally safe district ($424,364 vs. $214,862).  The money is going to the primary where a winger is given a real chance of knocking off the veteran congressman.

MD  Roscoe Bartlett,  MD-6

Bartlett is old (82 I think, and he looks it) and many thought he was headed for retirement.  Not so, as he filed for re-election.  That may come soon, though.  Bartlett has just $276,985 this time, down from $346,618.  It is a safe Republican district.

DE  Mike Castle,  DE At Large

Mike has been rumored for retirement and he’s been rumored as running for the Senate if Joe Biden retires.  The fund raising does not argue retirement.  Mike has the biggest cash on hand balance of any Republican House member in the Northeast and he’s growing it.  It was $1,212,788 and is now $1,527,167.  This is the most Democratic district in the nation represented by a Republican but in the clubby atmosphere of Delaware it “seems” safe.  Oddly, Joe Biden’s son, Beau, would seem like the most likely candidate to unseat the aging and sickly Castle.  Hint, hint.

Whilst almost all of the blogospheres attention has been focused on the Presidentials great things have been happening in the House. Below the fold to see the Democratic hits and misses in vulnerable Repub districts as well as a large number of retiring Repub incumbents in vulnerable districts also …………..

Once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

I thought it was time to have a look at the GOP House districts that generically lean Democratic or only slightly lean Republican to see how we are faring so far this cycle.

So here they are ranked in order of Cook PVI number every GOP district up to PVI R+5.9. Without further ado:

1) DE-AL – D+6.5,

The most Democratic House district occupied by a Republican has been a disappointment candidate wise. All of the declared candidates are at best 2nd tier. The conventional wisdom seems to be that this district is Castle’s as long as he wants it. ***sigh***

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

2) CT-04 – D+5,

The last House Republican in New England is facing the latest in a long line of challenging contests; one that we all hope he loses against top tier candidate Jim Himes.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

3) NJ-02 – D+4.0,

Surprisingly no confirmed Democratic candidate here yet. Did you know that Democrats won every State Senate district in this CD in 2007? That included winning one open GOP district and the defeat of a GOP sitting Senator!

IMHO potential Democratic candidates are waiting to see if State Sen Jeff Van Drew declares. If he does this one becomes a barn burner if not then LoBiondo probably lives to fight another day. ***Watch this space***

4) IL-10 – D+4,

2006 candidate and netroots hero Dan Seals is back for a rematch. Assuming he survives the primary, watch this one rage. Interestingly this district takes in part of Cook County with its fearsome Democratic machine. Unfortunately the Repub incumbent Kirk has more money fundraised than any other GOP incumbent this cycle. OTOH imagine this race if Obama is the nominee.  

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

5) NY-25 – D+3.4, OPEN RACE

Walsh has announced his retirement, 2006 candidate Dan Maffei is back for another go and to avenge his less than 4000 vote loss (He won 2 out of 4 counties). With Democrats picking up Repub districts in NY in 5 of the last 6 cycles chalk this one up as a gonna win for team blue.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

6) NJ-03 – D+3.3, OPEN RACE

Saxton is retiring and we got our first choice of candidate State Sen John Adler who announced before Saxton pulled the pin. This district voted 51% for Bush in 2004 and that won’t happen again and the Repubs are on the way to an ugly primary. Another blue state pick up for team blue.

7) NM-01 – D+2.4, OPEN RACE

Wilson is off to try and run for the senate and we look like having a big primary however this is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent and we only missed out by 900 votes last time. There are 40000 more registered Dems than Repubs so count this one as a win for team blue.

8) PA-06 – D+2.2,

Two declared candidates who are like options 14 and 15 for the party this one has been a massive disappointment. Like DE-AL this one seems to be Gerlach’s for as long as he wants it.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

***Another sigh***

9) NY-03 – D+2.1,

Amazingly not a Dem candidate to be seen in what may be the most Repub district in NY which is akin to being the heaviest light beer. In an ideal world State Rep David Bishop or Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi would run but don’t hold your breath for it to happen in 2008. Interestingly this district is the last of the GOP bastions on Long Island the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th all moving into the Dem column over the last 10 years.

Don’t hold your breath over this one in 2008.

10) WA-08 – D+2,

2006 candidate Darcy Burner is back for a rematch and Reicherts fundraising has been anemic making me wonder if he will retire! BTW Burner has almost twice as much cash on hand as Reichert. Simple equation here – If Burner wins in King (Seattle) County by more than Reichert wins Pierce County then she wins the District. 2700 votes was the margin last time.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

Hot Hot race!

11) PA-15 – D+2,

Definitely a race to watch as Sam Bennett has generated some netroots buzz and is a prolific fundraiser. In 2006 Dent only managed 53% against an underfunded last minute candidate who had to run in the primary as a write in to get on the ballot.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

Dent is very vulnerable.

12) FL-10 – D+1.1,

Simple dynamic going on here if Young runs he wins if he retires team blue will pile in and win (See also PA-06 & DE-AL). Young has said he will run but methinks not as his fundraising has been truly terrible (less than 10k last quarter!)

One third tier candidate in for us but watch them pile in when and if Young retires.

13) NV-03 – D+1.0,

Another race not getting the oxygen it should. Daskas seems to be the real deal and raised over 200k last quarter.

Bush got less than 50% here in 2004 and there are slightly more registered Dems than Repubs.

14) NY-13 – D+1,

More registered Dems than Repubs in this district not surprisingly. 2 second tier candidates declared so far but the conventional wisdom is that we need a candidate from Staten Island rather than Brooklyn. Unfortunately to this point all 3 of the Dem State Reps and Senators from the island have stayed out.

Interestingly Recchia raised more than 200K last quarter so this one could yet get competitive.

15) IA-04 – D+0.4,

This race has an oddly low profile given how pro Dem it is. Admittedly the attention has been on the 1st and 2nd until now but we won them both in 2006. One 3rd tier candidate running in a year where either Dem pres candidate will win Iowa against McCain. Latham only got 57% in 2006 and is very vulnerable if we can find a decent candidate. Spencer has only 60K COH too.

16) MI-09 – R+0,

3 great candidates in a district that gave Bush only just 50% in a state where our House representation is definitely underdone (6 out of 15). Will 2008 finally be the year when a Repub district flips and will it be the 9th? Only time will tell. One of 3 districts targetted by us this year in Michigan.

17) NY-23 – R+0.2,

Another GOP incumbent safe until he retires even some unions endorsed McHugh in 2006. Only declared candidate is 3rd tier Crummy website and poor fundraising) so nothing to see here move right along. UNLESS – Given that McHugh only raised 40K last quarter and has 200k on hand we must wonder if he will retire. If he does watch for us to pile in and pick up the district because Bush got 51% in 2004 here and because nobody is better at winning open GOP congressional House districts than the New York Democratic Party!

18) MN-03 – R+0.5, OPEN RACE

Ramstad is out and we got the candidate we wanted in State Senator Terri Bonoff. This district gave Bush 51% in 2004 and in 2008 minnesota will have a competitive senate race and should go blue for the Prez. Count this one as a win for team blue.

19) NJ-07 – R+0.6, OPEN RACE

Ferguson is out and Stender is back for another go having won 2/4 counties in 2006 and losing by only 3300 votes. The GOP is heading into a monster primary with 8 declared candidates allready. Count this one in for team blue.

20) VA-11 – R+0.6, OPEN RACE

The retirement of Davis has ensured that this district will flip. Located in Nthn Virginia which is rapidly trending Dem and with fmr Gvr Warner on the Senate ticket any one of the 3 Dems could win this one. Gave Bush a mere 50% in 2004. Count this one as a win for team blue.

21) OH-12 – R+0.7,

Personally I believe that Ohio will be ground zero in November but not in OH-12. All of the attention will be on the open races in the neighbouring 15th as well as the 16th. 3 second tier candidates here for us means that this 51% 2004 Bush District won’t be flipping in 2008 a real recruiting miss this.

22) NJ-04 – R+0.9,

An unfortunate recruitment miss pits a 3rd tier candidate against an entrenched incumbent. This district gave Bush 56% of the vote in 2004 and with competitive races in the 3rd and 7th and probably the 2nd there won’t be any excitement here on election night.

23) OH-01 – R+1,

This race is one of 4 barnburners in Ohio. We got the candidate we wanted in Steve Driehaus and he has 400K+ COH all of which will make this district one to watch on election night. Bush won this one by less than a point in 2004 and if we win Ohio this year then I think we win OH-01!

24) IL-11 – R+1.1, OPEN RACE

Weller is out and we and State Sen Majority leader Halvorson is absolutely top tier. She had about 400K COH in mid January and has raised at least another 70K since then. Despite the fact that this district gave Bush 53% in 2004 it will be flipping Dem in 08, particularly if Obama is the nominee. Count this one as a win for team blue.

25) OH-15 – R+1.1, OPEN RACE

Pryce is out and Kilroy is back to avenge her 1062 vote loss in 2006. She has 638K COH! in a district which Bush won by less than 1% in 2004. Count this one as a win for team blue.

26) MI-11 – R+1.2,

Another Michigan swing district and one of 3 districts targetted by us this year in Michigan. Both of our canidates are 3rd tier and this one won’t be flipping depsite only giving Bush 52% in 2004 and McCotter 54% in 2006. A frustrating miss at this point.

27) MI-08 – R+1.9,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here. Need I say more?

28) PA-03 – R+2,

A definite recruiting miss here this time out. 4 2nd tier candidates running with only reporting more than 100K cash on hand (English has in excess of 500K). Bush got 53% here in 2004 and English was held to 53% in 2006 by Porter who stupidly is running again as an independent thsu making it unlikely that this rece will flip. It will be interesting to assess this race agian post primary.

29) PA-18 – R+2,

A sleeper race this one IMHO. We have 5 Dems running in the primary so something must be going on here and it seems that our presumed top tier candidate is a very poor fundraiser as are all 5 of our guys. Wait for this race to evolve in the next few months; it could get hot or disapear without a trace.

30) OH-14 – R+2,

Well we got the candidate we wanted in O’Neill and in a district that only gave Bush 52.5% in 2004 so why isn’t this one top tier? Because there are 4 other competitive races in Repub districts in Ohio and also because O’Neill’s fundraising is lacklustre (71K last quarter). Which is a real shame because under other circumstances this could be a marquee race. Hope O’Neill runs again in 2010.

31) MI-07 – R+2,

At this stage this looks to be the only competitive race in Michigan in 2008 (although this could change). And it will be a barnburner. Kept below 50% in 2006 and facing at least 3 great Democratic candidates Walberg may yet still face a primary challenge from his Repub predecessor Joe Schwarz. This is definitely one race to watch.

32) AZ-01 – R+2.2, OPEN RACE

BARNBURNER Renzi has been on Democratic target list for ywars and now he has retired. Watch for a monster primary on our side although i expect top tier candidate State Rep Anne Kirkpatrick to be our nominee. She has BTW about 300K COH. If McCain is the Repub nominee this one will be tough but if not watch out for a great race.

33) MI-06 – R+2.3,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here. Need I say more?

34) MN-02 – R+2.7,

An intriguing race developing in this district. Our candidate Sarvi is top tier he got back from his 2nd or 3rd tour of duty in Iraq and declared his candidacy. Whilst his fundraising is a problem keep an eye on this one on election night Bush got 54% in 2004 but I reckon that if we win the MN Senate race we will win the 2nd also.

A dark horse race.

35) IL-06 – R+2.9,

Great embarrassment to Rahm Emanuel that we didn’t win this one in 2006 we are running another Iraq war vet. Unfortunately this one doesn’t have any money (40K as of mid Jan COH) and her primary opponent hasn’t filed with the FEC.

So two third tier candidates (go check the district blogs) means that this district is staying Repub this year. Let’s face it if we couldn’t win the open race in 2006 we won’t win in 2008 even if Obama is the nominee. Consider as well that there will be 2-4 competitive races elsewhere in Illinois.

36) OH-03 – R+3,

All 3 of the democratic candidates declared in the last 6 weeks and none is top tier. Too much action in other districts for this one to be competitive this time. Another recruiting miss.

37) FL-08 – R+3,

There will be a large number of competitive House races in Florida this year, maybe as many as 8! Whilst the 8th hasn’t received much attention yet it probably will. Amongst a group of 2nd tier candidates are a couple that could make this race competitive including one (Smith) who raised more than 100K last quarter and has 271K COH. And when you consider that Keller was held to 53% in 2006 and Bush only got 55% in 2004 and you have the makings of a great race. Watch this space.

38) NC-08 – R+3,

Kissell is back to avenge his 329 vote loss. He raised about 95K last quarter and should get some DCCC assisitance this time around.

Definitely one to watch on election night.

39) MI-04 – R+3,

Our candidate is second tier at best so this 54% Bush 2004 district will not be overly competitive in 2008. The attention in Michigan will be focused on CD’s 7 & 9 anyway.

40) CA-45 – R+3.2,

On paper this district should be competitive but no first tier candidate has emerged. The three 2nd tier candidates have not fundraised much and won’t be making this 56% Bush district competitive in 2008.

41) FL-24 – R+3,

3 candidates including fmr State Rep Suzanne Kosmas are running here. Kosmas has fundraised some 350K in 3 months and was heavily wooed by the party to run 2006 candidate Clint Curtis held Feeney to 58% in this 55% Bush district. Who knows what he could achieve in 2008 if he is the nominee. This race may get some traction and be terribly competitive or it may not. Wait and see  

42) NY-26 – R+3.5,

A sleeper race. We came close to knocking Reynolds in 2006 (52/48) and we have a much better candidate this time in Iraq veteran Jon Powers who has about 200K cash on hand. This one may fire up or fizzle.

43) OH-16 – R+4, OPEN RACE

Regula is retiring and we got our candidate of choice in Boccieri who has some 300K+ COH, twice the amount of his lead opponent. Bush got 53% here in 2004. Watch this one on election night if we don’t win this then Clinton or Obama don’t win Ohio IMHO.

44) FL-09 – R+4,

Held to 56% in 2006 Bilirakis could be in for a competitive race again this time with either Dicks or Mitchell set to campaign up a storm. Mitchell has 100K+ on hand and Dicks has 300K+ on hand. Like the 24th wait and see if this one lights up.

45) CA-26 – R+4,

Personally I think this district is a sleeper race. Netroots favourite  Warner is back to avenge his primary loss in 2006 and is sitting on 239K COH! With a dearth of competitive races in California this time (2) this race could really take off if things are going well for us on election night.

46) AL-03 – R+4,

A rare target for Dems in the south but unfortunately it looks like all of the attention will be focused on the open race in the 2nd where Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright looks like being a top tier recruit leaving the 3rd to languish in obscurity for this cycle.

47) IL-16 – R+4,

Our candidate Robert Abboud is a nuclear engineer which is pretty cool. Despite that he won’t be winning this 55% Bush district with only 40k odd COH, particularly with other competitive house races in Illinois.

48) FL-13 – R+4,

This race has never really ended and will be a barnburner this year. Jennings is running again and will self fund so we will see if the voting machines malfunction again.

49) FL-15 – R+4, OPEN RACE

Welson’s retirement means that a top tier Dem will get into the race. Is that Dem Higgs? Who knows. Watch this space to see how this race develops.

50) FL-18 – R+4,

The first of the three districts held by Cuban-Americans who are being challenged by yep Cuban-Americans. Whilst this one is the least likely of the three to be competitive it has the makings of a monster free for all. Watch this space in this 54% Bush district.

51) NJ-05 – R+4,

2 Second tier candidates here although Shulman has the potential to make this a competitive race having raised 140K last quarter and with an interesting life story to say the least (he is a blind rabbi). Unfortunately Bush got 57% here in 2004 and with 2 or 3 other competitive races in New Jersey I suspect that this one will struggle to get oxygen.

52) MI-10 – R+4,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here. Need I say more?

53) FL-07 – R+4.1,

There may be lots of competitive House races in Florida this cycle but the 7th won’t be one of them. Two second tier candidates running that won’t flip this district.

54) FL-25 – R+4.4,

The second of the Cuban American districts this one will be a hoot as two political heavy weights duke it out. This one should be one to watch.

55) IL-14 – R+4.8,

Hard to handicap this 55% Bush district. We have good solid candidates with variable fundraising performances. Probably best to await the outcome of the special election in March and then examine this race then.

56) MO-06 – R+4.8,

With our top tier candidate Kay Barnes and an open Gubernatorial race this one will be a barn burner. Keep an eye on this one on election night.

57) CA-24 – R+4.8,

Will Gallegly try to retire again like he did in 2006? If so this might become competitive as there are a couple of decent 2nd tier candidates on our side. May be competitive but probably won’t be.

58) VA-04 – R+5,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here, and we didn’t run a candidate here in 2006 at all.

Need I say more?

59) CA-50 – R+5,

Despite the enthusiasm of Leibham (187K COH) in particular I can’t help but htink that our best chance to nab this district was in the special election in 2006.

60) FL-12 – R+5,

Like the 7th this one won’t be providing any shocks on election night unfortunately. Reasonable 2nd tier candidate but nothing to see here.

61) IL-13 – R+5,

Our 3rd tier candidate has raised about 40K so far this cycle so don’t expect this race to hot up. An understandable recruiting miss given all of the open and/or competitive races in Illinois this time.

62) MN-06 – R+5,

About 4 months ago the Minnesota Democratic party were bullish that they could win all 3 Repub districts in Minnesota. I hope they are right but think they are worng. Both our candidates have about 100K in the bank but if this one couldn’t be won as an open race in 2006 it won’t be won in 2008. Watch the 3rd and 2nd not the 6th.

63) WV-02 – R+5,

Unger is out but Barth is in so wait and see how this one shakes out could be a fizzer or a firestorm. 57% Bush district.

64) WI-01 – R+2,

A couple of potentially decent 2nd tier candidates here who need to lift their fundraising game. This district only went 53% for Bush in 2004. But this race has yet to gain any traction. Will it do so? Who knows? This the most likely GOP district in Wisconsin to flip to us however, so wait and see.

65) WI-06 – R+5,

56% Bush district, Petri unopposed in 2006 and a 3rd tier candidate. Sound like a recipe for success? No I didn’t think so either.

66) FL-05 – R+5.1,

Third tier candidate means that this congressional district won’t be providing any joy in 2008.

67) NY-29 – R+5.2,

Massa almost nailed Kuhl in 2006 (52/48) and is back for another shot. In arguably the most Republican district in NY this one will be a tight race with Massa the strongest possible candidate we could have running.

68) VA-10 – R+5.3,

Whilst Bush got 55% here in 2004 and Wolf got 57% in 2006 don’t yet write this one off. With the coattails from the senate race this one may be winnable particularly given that 2006 challenger Judy Feder is back and has almost 500k COH! If we do well in the house on election night this one could well flip whilst everyone os focused on the 11th.

69) IL-18 – R+5.5, OPEN RACE

Don’t yet have a candidate as our guy Versace quit the race after filing closed. The Dem county chairs will appoint a candidate after the primary but don’t expect them to win even if Obama is our nominee.

70) NM-02 – R+5.7, OPEN RACE

A slew of democratic candidates running here and the open senate race has NM Dems talking up our chances here with some justification. If McCain is the repub nominee then forget it but otherwise our 40,000 registration advantage might us over the line in this 57% 2004 Bush district.

71) VA-02 – R+5.9,

Businessman and political rookee Glenn Nye is our candidate and he is keen but 2nd tier. This one won’t be flipping on election night and has been a real recruiting miss as our first choice declined the opportunity. 57% Bush district in 2004.

My first diary here at Swing State Project.  I hadn’t seen this mentioned, but Doc’s Political Parlor (which covers Alabama politics) is reporting that Montgomery, AL, Mayor Bobby Bright has apparently decided to run as a Democrat for the open seat in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District (currently held by Terry Everett).

http://www.politicalparlor.net…

Apparently he was going back and forth over whether to run as a Democrat or Republican, the thinking being he’d have an easier time in the general election as a Republican, but an easier time in a primary as a Democrat.  The speculation seems that he’s the Democrat’s best hope for winning the seat, and actually has a decent shot at winning.  It may come down to the region of the district that the GOP nominee comes from (ie. a Montgomery Republican could fare worse against Bright).

Can anyone better-versed in Alabama politics give more insight?

again, the most important news is that early voting has begun.  for those who live in illinois’ 10th congressional district, the ballot positions for the primary election are:

Daniel J. Seals

Jay K. Footlik

only dan seals completed the voter guide question.  his response notes:

After a short 11-month campaign and a lot of hard work, Dan shocked the pundits and incumbent Mark Kirk by winning 47 percent in the election. Dan is vying for the seat again in 2008, and this time with even more support.

the financial disclosure reports are out.  seals reports a healthy “quarter:”

Total Contributions

Qtr: $329,731.01

Tot: $904,762.27

Total Operating Expenditures

Qtr: $199,646.21

Tot: $383,183.77

CoH: $627167.58

footlik’s report confirms what people are seeing on the ground:

Total Contributions

Qtr: $133,433.08

Tot: $422,308.08

Total Operating Expenditures

Qtr: $414,415.88

Tot: $480,341.28

CoH: $133,351.09

the saddest thing is, despite footlik’s considerable drop-off in donations, he still managed to raise in the 4th quarter pretty much what john laesch raised in an entire year.

being newspaper endorsement season, endorsements lead the news in this race, too.  seals has swept these: he got the pioneer press endorsement, the daily herald endorsement as well as the chicago tribune’s:

Seals gets the edge, based on a better grasp of local issues and concerns. He is endorsed.

the sun-times endorsement was more expansive:

Seals our choice in the 10th District

Democratic voters in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District on Chicago’s North Shore should consider themselves lucky.

Two strong candidates are running in the Feb. 5 primary, vying for the chance to take on Republican incumbent Rep. Mark Kirk, who is running unopposed.

[…]

But the endorsement goes to Seals, who has significantly more local support than Footlik. We like his well-rounded background, including an international economics master’s degree, fluency in Japanese and a stint working for the federal government in Washington.

He also has an MBA and worked as director of marketing at GE Capital, experiences we hope prove helpful in national economic matters. He is the son of former Chicago Bears guard George Seals and a social worker.

Several of Seals’ policy ideas are more fleshed out than Footlik’s, particularly on the economy and immigration reform, including a push for Mexico to do more to control the flow of immigrants and boost its own economy.

Seals also has the best chance to defeat Kirk.

jay did get another endorsement that went last time to dan seals, that of the jewish political alliance of illinois.  dan, otoh, got dick durbin’s endorsement again.  durbin noted, as reported by the sun-times:

“If Dan Seals were not the candidate, Jay would be a very interesting choice,” Durbin said. “But Dan has been battle-tested. He knows the district inside and out. His opponent does not have that kind of experience.”

the chicago tribune used this quote:

“I think he’s one of our strongest congressional candidates in the country, and he proved it last time,” Durbin said. “He came very close, and I think he deserves another chance at it. I think he’s battle-tested and I’m happy to support his candidacy.”

the journal also covered durbin’s endorsement of seals.

chicago public radio covered the race.  the chicago tribune noted that the difference in name recognition may be the biggest difference between footlik and seals.  the ap story observes that our economic difficulties is of great concern even in illinois’ wealthiest congressional district.

the debates between footlik and seals got more attention.  the 10th dems convention got coverage, as well, with a seals’ slant here and here.  seals got 180 votes in the straw poll while footlik received 44 votes.  this margin, you might remember, reflects the same margin found in seals’ internal poll.  and these are democratic activists — all of whom were likely to be aware, at least, of footlik’s candidacy.

if you noticed, these roundups have a specific format.  the first section is basically the news reported by the mainstream media.  the second section i call, what’s new.  this is the segment were i talk about the blogs and websites, etc.  skokie talk, a website for jay’s hometown of skokie (in the 9th CD represented by jan schakowsky) notes this good news for jay:

Footlik currently lives in Buffalo Grove with his wife and daughter. He’s expecting another daughter in February.

congratulations, jay.  i’m sure i speak for many people when i say that.

jta, a jewish news service, has increased it’s coverage of this race dramatically.  it now has a reporter on the ground (jacob berkman).  it reports footlik’s charges about dan’s position at northwestern, about footlik’s “jewish credentials,” how some were offended by footlik’s humor and about how much the footlik-seals matchup mirrors obama and hillary.  the latter write-up was called by archpundit a good overview:

My read is that Jay is a great guy and a good candidate, but given Seals is well liked by Democrats in the District and most understand you need to run twice to win, most of the reasons for supporting Jay aren’t catching with people. Jay’s campaign would argue he’s stronger in a general, but I’m not sure that the greater burden of building up name recognition wouldn’t make it just as difficult. Last time, it was a seven point difference with virtually no national help for Dan.

I like Jay and would like to see him run for something another time, but I don’t see a compelling case as to why Seals shouldn’t get a second shot given how well he did without national support last time.

it’s obvious that footlik made a valiant effort, and he clearly has tremendous political talent.  i’m pretty critical of “policy wonks,” just because i’ve had to deal with the frustrations that voters have trying to understand them.

ellen’s 10th CD blog continues to be the leader in coverage of this race.  she live blogged the lwv debate in arlington heights, covered a meet and greet for seals the next day, attended the durbin endorsement, live blogged the 10th dems convention, reported the straw poll results, noted the cpr story and broke the 21st century dems’ endorsement of seals.

these two campaigns are revving up towards election day.  the seals campaign reports that:

Voters are responding enthusiastically to Dan’s message of bringing wholesale change to Washington. On issues like the war, healthcare, and the economy, they are ready for a new direction.

Dan’s message is (and has always been) that it’s time for a change in the course of our country and the way business is done in Washington.

it’s difficult for me to see how footlik pulls this out, but what i will be looking at when the election returns come in is whether footlik is able to win the dominant jewish areas in the district (highland park, glencoe, buffalo grove).  what i want to test is whether jay’s message that he would do much better against kirk resonates in that community.  if jay wins these areas, it would signal that dan has some work to do to strengthen his position among jewish voters.

this race hasn’t turned out to be as heated as i feared or as competitive as i thought possible.  in the end, democrats in the 10th seem satisfied with the leader they recruited in 2006 to beat mark kirk.  this will be the final IL-10th roundup, not because there won’t be more news, but because it’s increasingly apparent this one has been decided…

Can you believe that the last time we took stock of the open seat situation in the House of Representatives was on November 10th? With news of the shocking retirement of GOP Rep. Jim Walsh leaking today, it’s time to take another look. A lot has changed on the House scene since November, with the retirements of Reps. McCrery, Peterson, Ferguson, Doolittle, Lantos and of course, Walsh; the resignations of Reps. Baker and Wicker; and the death of Rep. Julia Carson.

Following the format of the previous installments in this series, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AL-02	Everett	R	R+13.2	71	Retiring
AZ-01	Renzi	R	R+2.2	50	Retiring
CA-04	Doolittle	R	R+10.9	58	Retiring
CA-12	Lantos	D	D+22.5	80	Retiring
CA-52	Hunter	R	R+9.3	60	Running for President
CO-02	Udall	D	D+8.1	58	Running for Senate
CO-06	Tancredo	R	R+10	62	Running for President
IL-11	Weller	R	R+1.1	51	Retiring
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	67	Retiring*
IL-18	LaHood	R	R+5.5	62	Retiring
IN-07	Carson	D	D+8.7	70	Deceased*
LA-01	Jindal	R	R+18.5	37	Elected Governor*
LA-04	McCrery	R	R+6.5	59	Retiring
LA-06	Baker	R	R+6.5	60	Cashing In*
ME-01	Allen	D	D+6.2	63	Running for Senate
MN-03	Ramstad	R	R+0.5	62	Retiring (?)
MS-01	Wicker	R	R+10.0	57	Appointed to the Senate*
MS-03	Pickering	R	R+14.1	45	Retiring
NJ-03	Saxton	R	D+3.3	60	Retiring
NJ-07	Ferguson	R	R+0.6	38	Retiring
NM-01	Wilson	R	D+2.4	47	Running for Senate
NM-02	Pearce	R	R+5.7	61	Running for Senate
NM-03	Udall	D	D+5.5	60	Running for Senate
NY-21	McNulty	D	D+8.7	61	Retiring
NY-25	Walsh	R	D+3.4	61	Retiring
OH-07	Hobson	R	R+6.0	72	Retiring
OH-15	Pryce	R	R+1.1	57	Retiring
OH-16	Regula	R	R+3.6	84	Retiring
PA-05	Peterson	R	R+9.7	69	Retiring
WY-AL	Cubin	R	R+19.4	61	Retiring

*Denotes impending special election

That adds up to a whopping 24 House retirements or resignations for Republicans. It should be noted that at this point in the 2006, there were only 13 announced retirements by GOP House incumbents. February and March still offer some time for more House crumb-bums to cut their political careers mercifully short, and I expect that a few will follow the recent example of Reps. McCrery, Baker, and Walsh. Perhaps a few of their names might even be found in the list below…

Potential House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AK-AL	Young	R	R+14.3	75	Under investigation
CA-24	Gallegly	R	R+4.8	64	Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	74	Under investigation
CO-05	Lamborn	R	R+15.7	54	Primary challenge
DE-AL	Castle	R	D+6.5	69	Health issues
FL-10	Young	R	D+1.1	78	Age issues/Speculation
GA-10	Broun	R	R+12.7	61	Primary challenge
IA-03	Boswell	D	D+1.4	74	Health issues/Primary challenge
IL-03	Lipinski	D	D+10.3	42	Primary challenge
LA-02	Jefferson	D	D+27.8	61	Indicted
MD-01	Gilchrest	R	R+9.8	62	Primary challenge
MD-04	Wynn	D	D+29.8	57	Primary challenge
MD-06	Bartlett	R	R+12.8	82	Age issues
MO-06	Graves	R	R+4.8	44	Potential gubernatorial run
MO-08	Emerson	R	R+11.0	58	Potential gubernatorial run
MO-09	Hulshof	R	R+6.5	50	Potential gubernatorial run
MI-03	Ehlers	R	R+9.0	74	Speculation
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	67	Speculation
NY-23	McHugh	R	R+0.2	60	Speculation
OH-02	Schmidt	R	R+13.1	56	Primary challenge
TN-09	Cohen	D	D+18.1	59	Primary challenge
TX-04	Hall	R	R+17.1	85	Age issues/Primary challenge
VA-11	Davis	R	R+0.6	59	Mulling retirement

You may have noticed that I included crumb-bum Bill Young, despite the Congressman’s recent signals that he’ll run again. I suspect that old Bill has a trick up his sleeve, and might surprise us by retiring after the filing deadline closes, leaving his wife or some other hand-picked successor to have a cakewalk election. In short: I don’t trust this jerk. He’s staying on the list.

Candidate filing is sailing along with 5 states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last week or so:

FL-21 – R+6,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

MI-04 – R+3,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

So 375 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 142 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 142

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 21

Districts without any candidates – 33

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 6

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-14 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

KY-05 – R+8,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None currently

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

AL-02 – R+13,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

LA-04 – R+7,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

CA-25 – R+7,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-18 – R+4,

ID-02 – R+19,

IN-05 – R+20,

KY-01 – R+10,

LA-05 – R+10,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-10 – R+4,

MO-08 – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

OK-01 – R+13,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

UT-01 – R+26,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-07 – R+11,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Kentucky, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 23 states with a full slate, and 15 states with one race to fill! That is more than 3/4 of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 9 1/2 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-06 and WI-06; 7 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! Of the other 3 TX-11 will again go uncontested whilst VA-04 and AL-06 do not currently have Democratic candidates.

We were on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006 but with the Texas debacle it now seems unlikely.

Expect to see FL-25, KY-01, AL-02, SC-01, LA-04 and MT-AL to fill soon.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Candidate filing is sailing along with 5 states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last month or so:

CA-46 – R+6,

KS-01 – R+20,

LA-06 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MO-07 – R+14,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-08 – R+12,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

But two races now no longer have a confirmed Democratic candidate:

IL-18 – R+5.5, (Our candidate withdrew for health reasons but can be replaced by a vote of the county dem chairs afer the primary.)

WI-05 – R+12 (Our candidate withdrew for professional and personal reasons.)

So 370 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 137 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 137

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2

Districts with rumoured candidates – 22

Districts without any candidates – 35

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 6

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-24 – R+3,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-14 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

KY-05 – R+8,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

KY-02 – R+12.9,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

AL-02 – R+13,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

LA-04 – R+7,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

CA-25 – R+7,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-18 – R+4,

ID-02 – R+19,

IN-05 – R+20,

KY-01 – R+10,

LA-05 – R+10,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-10 – R+4,

MO-08 – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

OK-01 – R+13,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

UT-01 – R+26,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-07 – R+11,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

It is galling to say the least that the Texas Democratic Party couldn’t get their act together. We had candidates good to go in 3 of these districts and our 2006 nominee in the 1st is running as an independent. I am still stunned that the Party couldn’t find candidates in or around Dallas, Bexar, Galveston or Austin to run in their local district! It has been speculated that the Texas party is concentrating on winning back the Texas House, an interesting proposition given that a third of Texas house districts don’t have a Democrat on the ballot either!

**On a brighter note we may still be able get candidates on the ballot in Texas via write in but I will diary about that seperately.***

Finally due praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 23 states with a full slate, and 12 states with one race to fill! That is more than half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 10 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-06 and WI-06; 7 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! Of the other 3 TX-11 will again go uncontested whilst VA-04 and AL-06 do not currently have Democratic candidates.

We were on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006 but with the Texas debacle it now seems unlikely.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

You know, it’s very kind of bored now to keep us all in the loop by providing Roundup diaries.  Of particular interest to me is the race in IL-14, so of course when I came back for a pit stop between trips today and saw that he had posted an IL-14 Roundup #3 diary, I took the time to scan it.

Hmmm.  There seems to be very little going on in the Laesch campaign, to hear bored tell it.  Could have sworn I heard about more endorsements recently than those bored now mentions in his coverage of the Laesch campaign, which amounts to this:

john laesch woke up to good news this morning: state senator mike noland has endorsed him.

and this:

booman tribune has an old interview of john laesch that now comes up on google search. his campaign continues its periodic campaign updates here and here. laesch’s former blogger also talks about Podunk,IL vs. the New Chicago Machine, the laesch youtube page covers his simmons appearance (broken into multiple videos and quentin young’s endorsement.

and…

no, I guess that’s about it – all the news bored could find the space or time to bring us about Laesch…

compared to this kind of coverage of Foster:

support for bill foster has been growing on the blogs. this post notes that foster is being called the front runner in the race. i also overlooked the bill foster interview epluribus media conducted at yearlykos. another post looks at foster’s energy proposals

and

foster has benefitted both from his status as a scientist and the recent cutbacks at fermilab (a major employer in the district). his science credentials are finding posts on political and non-political blogs, including Physics and Physicists: Politics & Science, and Open Science Thread: Politics & Science and another Open Science Thread. finally, Nuclear Mangos covered foster. one blogger wants you to know that he contributed to foster because of this. the cutbacks at fermilab have gotten foster mentions in the local press, Fermilab under threat due to federal budget and Federal budge so far not good for Fermilab

and

the foster campaign reports:

Bill Foster has been picking up the endorsements of local leaders in the district, including former Newark Mayor Roger Ness, DeKalb County Board member Robert Rosemier, Kane County Board members Gerald Jones, Bonnie Lee Kunkel, and Rudy Neuberger, and Aldermen Chuck Brown (Geneva), Mike Saville (Aurora), and Jim Volk (Batavia). His message that, as a scientist and businessman, he’s an experienced problem solver ready to address the issues facing our community and our nation and ready to change the ways things are done in Washington, is gaining traction and resonating with voters.

they have numerous events coming up in the next week including activities in winfield township, west dundee and elgin.

Followed by a curt:

the other campaigns did not report anything new for the next week or so.

Hmmm.  Guess that means there’s nothing new to report, eh?  Well, either that or bored is using that line (in reference to upcoming events on calendars) in an attempt to imply that the Foster campaign is where all the action is.

But really, bored seems to be missing a few details.

Let’s see, right there on the Laesch website I find news of several recent endorsements of Laesch that I can find no direct mention of in any (because I went back and checked them all) of bored now’s IL-14 Round Up diaries, including:

? Barbara Ehrenreich, best-selling author of “Nickel & Dimed”

? Studs Terkel (yeah, that Studs Terkel)

? nationally-syndicated radio host Mike Malloy

? Valerie Burd, Mayor, Yorkville

? Robin Sutcliff, 3rd Ward Alderman, Yorkville

? Jim Feeley, Vice-Chairman, Kendall County Democratic Party

? Ruth Anne Tobias, Chairperson, DeKalb County Board

? Lynn Schmitz, Executive Committee member, DeKalb County Democratic Party

? Jerry Sheridan, Chairman, Lee County Democratic Party

? Pat Jones, Jr., Treasurer, Lee County Democratic Party

? Karen Nelson, Whiteside County Board

? Tom Nicholson, Chair, Henry County Board

? Tim Wise, Chief of Police, Annawan

Oh, and lots and lots and lots of PCP endorsements.

Then there are some organizational endorsements that seem to have slipped by bored now in his “Roundup,” like, for instance:

? Independent Voters of Illinois – Independent Precinct Organizations

? IL-14 Progressive Democrats of America

? and the Chicago Progressive Democrats of America

? and the national Progressive Democrats of America

? Democratic Action Political Action Committee

? VET PAC

? Northwestern Illinois Building and Construction Trades Council

? International Union of Operating Engineers – Illinois State Branch

? Western Regional Council of the United Electrical, Radio & Machine Workers of America

? and, of course, John’s own union, Carpenter’s Local 195

At least bored now mentioned John’s AFL-CIO endorsement, in passing.

My personal favorite?  Would have to hands-down be the part where bored now tells us about favorable coverage of Foster (written by, not surprisingly, bored now) by providing text links that read like this

“this post notes that foster is being called the front runner in the race,”

while, in the same Roundup, giving us wildly descriptive text-links, like this about Laesch:

his campaign continues its periodic campaign updates here and here

to Laesch campaign blogs, where if you follow the links there you will find coverage in the Chicago Sun-Times, of Dick Simpson (head of the University of Illinois at Chicago’s Political Science Department, former Chicago alderman, author, progressive leader and columnist for the Sun-Times, who won his aldermanic race running against a much better financed candidate) predicting Laesch

is now headed to victory in the primary (and the March 14 special election to replace retired Hastert) over Bill Foster, a more conservative political newcomer, scientist and wealthy businessman.

But, of course, we wouldn’t want to go so far as to accuse bored now of spinning his roundup diaries to favor a particular candidate.  He does, after all, provide links to things, that link to other things, which in turn cover some of these not-directly-mentioned things.

On the other hand, if I were someone whose foremost intent was comprehensive coverage of the race in IL-14, or for that matter if I were Jotham Stein’s former blogger, I think I’d be taking the time to think through the “fair and balanced” nature of bored now’s “reporting” and “analysis” in his “Roundups” and taking the time to post a few of my own updates.  But I’m not, I’m just “Laesch’s former blogger” and current supporter so I’ll stick to Laesch news.

As far as IL-14 goes, my prediction stands: Anyone who is relying on bored now for news and an evenhanded analysis of the race in IL-14 is going to be very, very surprised on February 5.

cross-posted on Fireside14, PrairieStateBlue, MyDD, DailyKos