Tag: House

So the starting point for this diary was another diary, which I can’t seem to find, but which I remember from the heady days of early 2009, when Dems seemed poised to pull a 1934 (at least in the Senate) and gain seats for the third cycle in a row. This diarist made the point that with such candidates as Katherine Sebelius in Kansas, Janet Napolitano in Arizona, Robin Carnahan in Missouri, Jennifer Brunner in Ohio and Christy Vilsack in Iowa, 2010 was poised to be a true year of the woman in politics, and particularly Democratic woman.

Yeah, well, that didn’t happen.

So how’d women do in 2010. Well, Democratic women did terribly in general, but for women overall, there was the (kinda) good, the bad, and the ugly. Let’s review.  

The (kinda) good – the Governors

The Governors races were a mixed bag for women, which qualifies as good. The three losses were all due to retirements (Jodi Rell, Jennifer Granholm and Linda Lingle) and were balanced by three wins – Mary Fallin in Oklahoma, Susana Martinez in New Mexico and Nikki Haley in South Carolina. The later two are women of color, and regardless of your view of politics it’s kind of cool to see a woman of Indian descent governing the state where the civil war started. Of course, all these were Republicans. There were some big losses for women as well, notably Meg Whitman in California, Karen Handel in Georgia and (from my perspective, the most heartbreaking), Alex Sink in Florida. Still, women held their own, and given there wasn’t a huge amount of potential for women beyond the California, Georgia and Florida’s races, I’m going to label the governor’s results good.

The Bad – the Senate

Women held their own in the Senate – there will still be 17 Senators in the next session of Congress, with Kelly Ayotte replacing Blanche Lincoln. But given the potential: Robin Carnahan in Missouri, Elaine Marshall in North Carolina, Jennifer Brunner in Ohio, Roxanne Conlin in Iowa, Sharon Angle in Nevada, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, Jane Norton in Colorado as well as earlier in the cycle, Martha Coakley in Massachusetts, not to mention the candidates who didn’t run, holding their own was certainly not a good result. Women can take comfort from some of major retentions: Barbara Boxer, Patty Murray, Kirsten Gillibrand and probably the biggest win other than Ayotte, Lisa Murkowski (possibly the most gratifying win considering what a major ass**** Joe Miller turned out to be). But overall, the results were bad, considering the optimism that people had two years ago for this cycle.

The Ugly – The House

Here’s all you need to know: according to the Center for American Women in Politics, the number of women in the House will drop for the first time since 1979. That’s right: while nine Republican women won (and no incumbent Republican women lost House races), 10 Democratic women lost. The number of women in the House goes from 73 to 72. In addition to that, Nancy Pelosi, the highest ranking woman in the U.S. government, will lose her position come January.

http://www.cawp.rutgers.edu/pr…

So, yeech, right? Beyond the ugly numbers, there were a couple of interesting victories. Vicky Hartzler took out the reigning chairman of the Armed Services Committee, Ike Skelton, scoring one of the bigger upsets of the cycle (and I’m a progressive, but does anyone think this would have gotten more publicity if the parties were reversed?). Jaime Herrera was the first Republican woman of Latino heritage elected outside of Florida. Renee Ellmers took out a seven term Dem Rep in North Carolina. And Colleen Hanabusa not only became the only Democratice women to oust a Republican incumbent, but made Hawaii the first state with more than one seat to have an all woman House delegation.

But still, yeech.

The future – 2012

For the governors races in 2012, things don’t look great. Bev Purdue in North Carolina is one of the more unpopular incumbents, and Christine Gregorie is in a little better shape but has not announced whether she will run for a third term in Washington.

The good news about the Senate is that only two female incumbents, Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Kay Bailey Hutchinson in Texas look to be in any sort of trouble, and the latter will likely retire. Feel free to speculate who might be some potential female challengers for the Senate.

We can only hope the House elections go better in 2012. Certainly quality candidates like Ann Kuster in New Hampshire are likely to run again and hopefully win. It feels like it can’t get worse than this year.  

I applied the Wyoming Rule, stating that each congressional district in the country should have roughly the same population as the smallest state’s at-large district, to North Carolina. Redistricting is gruesome in North Carolina, and with 17 districts, it’s even nastier. I came up with four safe Democratic districts (all of them VRA districts, either with black majorities or minority-majority coalitions), eight probable Republican districts, and five swing districts, ensuring electoral politics in the Tarheel State with this map would be pretty exciting.

Marvel at the atrocity I have committed. For anyone who is curious, going off 2008 population estimates, each district contains roughly between 472,500 and 474,500 people.

NC-01 (safe Democratic)

41% white, 54% black

66% Obama, 34% McCain

This is one district I did manage to make more compact. It remains black-majority and acts as a Democratic vote sink in swingy eastern North Carolina. Rep. G.K. Butterfield, the Democrat who currently holds this seat, would have no new obstacles here.

NC-02 (swing)

78% white, 12% black

51% Obama, 48% McCain

This is where things start getting ugly. After surveying the map I drew for the Raleigh-Durham area, I felt like I needed to take a shower. Rep.-elect Renee Ellmers, a Tea Party Republican loathed by the GOP establishment for some reason, has been drawn out, as she currently resides in Dunn in Harnett County, which isn’t even a part of this district. Meanwhile, I believe Democratic Rep. Brad Miller of NC-13, who resides in Raleigh, has been drawn into the district. Realistically, Ellmers has little chance of holding the current NC-02 in 2012, and Republicans would be better off running a more competent candidate in this district anyway.

NC-03 (safe Republican)

78% white, 18% black

41% Obama, 58% McCain

This district hasn’t changed much, absorbing some of the more conservative parts of NC-01 and ceding a bit of ground where the African American population has risen at a disproportionate rate. The only major change is that it has been extended along the Atlantic coast, absorbing some of the southern suburbs of Wilmington. Republican Rep. Walter B. Jones of Farmville, a town in western Pitt County, would easily win another term here.

NC-04 (safe Democratic)

42% white, 44% black, 9% Latino

73% Obama, 26% McCain

If you thought NC-02 was ugly, this is even worse. It effectively combines the African American precincts of Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Garner, Sanford, and Fayetteville, linking them via spindly threads of rural countryside and wilderness. Rep. David Price, the incumbent Democrat here, has been drawn out of this district. Price lives in Chapel Hill, home to the University of North Carolina. Chapel Hill, for what it’s worth, is just too white to include in this district without the risk of upsetting its VRA status depending on demographic rates. Democrats should romp in this district regardless.

NC-05 (likely Republican)

69% white, 25% black

45% Obama, 55% McCain

Northern North Carolina is mostly white and mostly Republican, but the inclusion of Vance County and parts of Nash County, as well as a cut of ultra-liberal Chapel Hill, in this district make it a bit less absurdly partisan than the current iteration. Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx, who lives in Avery County, would have to move in order to run for reelection here, but I’m inclined to think somebody a bit younger and less emblematic of conservative obstinacy would make a better candidate for the GOP here anyway. A Democrat could certainly win this seat in a good year, and indeed, it is possible Price has been drawn into this district (I’m not exactly sure where he claims his address). But the quandary of having part of a liberal college town in an otherwise Republican district is that students might not get out the vote for a Blue Dog, and socially conservative ancestral Democrats might not vote for a progressive.

NC-06 (safe Republican)

81% white, 11% black

43% Obama, 56% McCain

This district effectively drowns what is left of liberal Chapel Hill in the bathtub of rural conservatism. In my first drawing, this district had not changed a lot from the current version represented by Rep. Howard Coble, a long-serving Republican, but the new version crawls evilly into Orange County to keep Chapel Hill out of a swingier district. If Coble wants another term, he should have no problem getting one in this district, even if he has to run against Price, who is probably drawn in here. As with NC-05, though, Democrats will have a wicked balancing act to perform, as well as a lot of electoral ground to make up, if they want to flip this seat.

NC-07 (safe Republican)

71% white, 21% black

42% Obama, 57% McCain

This redrawing would represent a fait accompli for the Republicans, drawing out Rep. Mike McIntyre, the Lumberton-based Democratic incumbent. It’s another district with a face only a mother could love, but the loss of Wilmington’s majority-black northern precincts and the excision of outlying Democratic-friendly areas like Robeson County take it from being a swing district to being a fairly solid Republican district, especially with McIntyre out of the picture. It trades a few rural precincts with NC-03 with no real effect otherwise, simply a matter of working out the numbers.

NC-08 (safe Democratic)

47% white, 33% black, 12% Native

58% Obama, 41% McCain

If you were curious as to where McIntyre went, he was drawn into this district currently held by Rep. Larry Kissell, a fellow Democrat. This new drawing sucks in pieces of Wilmington, Fayetteville, and Aberdeen in exchange for Cabarrus and Stanly counties. It is narrowly a minority-majority coalition district, with a not-insignificant Native American population, and it should be solid for Democrats regardless of whether Kissell, McIntyre, or someone else is the party’s 2012 nominee.

NC-09 (likely Republican)

81% white, 11% black

44% Obama, 55% McCain

Despite sacrificing its southern and western portions in favor of extending further north into Cabarrus County, this district serves the same function as it did before: dividing Charlotte along racial lines. Republican Rep. Sue Myrick, who I believe would still reside in this redrawn district, isn’t going to have any trouble getting reelected here. In the event Myrick has been drawn out, any other Republican might have a bit tougher haul but would probably still be favored.

NC-10 (safe Republican)

85% white, 8% black

41% Obama, 57% McCain

Okay kid, here’s where things get racially homogeneous. This redrawn district would be overwhelmingly Republican if it didn’t stick a long spur into liberal Asheville, intentionally diluting that population center’s influence. Instead it’s just very Republican, and it’s hard to see a Democrat picking it up. Rep. Patrick McHenry of Cherryville, a Republican, has been drawn out of this district with its move north from Gaston County.

NC-11 (safe Republican)

87% white, 7% black

40% Obama, 59% McCain

This is that pesky district where Shuler, a Blue Dog, seems to be hanging on just fine despite determined attempts to dislodge him. This redrawing is effectively just the most conservative parts of western North Carolina, with its sole purpose being to get rid of Shuler. Republicans would benefit from a shrunk-down district excising Democratic-friendly Asheville, and indeed, Shuler winning a district now-President Barack Obama lost by 19 points in 2008 seems like a stretch even for him.

NC-12 (safe Democratic)

38% white, 49% black, 8% Latino

75% Obama, 24% McCain

This is another slimmed-down version of an existing monstrosity. Democratic Rep. Melvin Watt’s district is famous for being one of the most egregious examples of gerrymandering in the county. Fortunately, this Wyoming Rule map puts it to shame, with multiple examples of even grosser gerrymandered districts. The smaller version of this district omits the spur into Winston-Salem and includes only southern and eastern Greensboro. Despite my personal distaste for Watt, he would have no excuse not to win reelection here.

NC-13 (swing)

79% white, 15% black

47% Obama, 52% McCain

This district simply ended up in a completely different place than it currently occupies. The current NC-13 includes most of Wake County and a great deal of northern North Carolina, using Raleigh’s Democratic tilt to offset the conservative tendencies of Rockingham, Caswell, Person, and Granville counties in what amounts to a big fat Democratic gerrymander. Because there is literally no overlap between the current and redrawn versions of this district, Miller has been drawn out and placed in NC-02, as previously mentioned. The new NC-13 would cover a swath of the central part of the state, including the cities of Kannapolis and Concord in Cabarrus County, stretching down to the South Carolina border west of Charlotte (there is actually an outside chance that Myrick, the NC-09 incumbent, may find herself living here). Because of the inclusion of Cherryville, Gaston County, the long-serving Republican McHenry has certainly been drawn into this district. It’s a swing district, and a savvy Blue Dog Democrat could win it, but I think it tilts Republican, especially if McHenry or Myrick run.

NC-14 (likely Republican)

90% white, 6% black

43% Obama, 55% McCain

This new district in North Carolina under the Wyoming Rule is mostly left over from Shuler’s gutted NC-11 and McHenry’s dismembered NC-10, with Foxx drawn in along with parts of the current incarnation of NC-05. It’s not as strongly Republican as it might have been, but most of liberal Asheville is here putting a weight on the scale due to its size. Considering that Shuler might rather move here from NC-11 to run, I would love to see him battle it out with Foxx. The demographics here ultimately would work in Foxx’s favor whether she ran against Shuler or another Democrat.

NC-15 (swing)

72% white, 18% black

48% Obama, 51% McCain

Yes, you’re seeing it right: this district includes the east and west sides, but not the middle third, of Harnett County. For all its gerrymandered-to-hell appearance, this is a swing district, carved up in a hideous way partly to permit the existence of the two VRA districts it borders, partly to keep it competitive enough to make surrounding districts more solidly partisan. Ellmers has been drawn into this district, although I’m not sure it’s conservative enough for her to win. Getting around in this district looks like it would be hell, and the cultural incongruity between Durham and Dunn might pose an issue in an election year.

NC-16 (swing)

74% white, 18% black

47% Obama, 52% McCain

Amazing how a district of leftovers can end up being perhaps the most compact one on the entire map. This all-new district covers most of Winston-Salem, along with rural Yadkin County and large swaths of Stokes, Surry, and Wilkes counties. I don’t believe any member of the House of Representatives lives within these district boundaries, but either a conservative Democrat or a cautious Republican could win here. It’s a swing district, but it tilts Republican.

NC-17 (swing)

78% white, 16% black

47% Obama, 52% McCain

The last new district is materially similar to the previous one in some ways. Demographically, it comes out looking much the same. It includes most of Guilford and Rockingham counties, serving to sponge up Democratic-friendly areas that could change NC-05 or NC-06 from being Republican districts to being swing districts, as this Republican-tilting district is. I don’t think a current House member lives here, meaning we would probably see a new face in Congress representing it in 2013. I think that face is likely to be Republican.

Comments, either on the map or on the Wyoming Rule?

Redistricting according to the highly hypothetical Wyoming Rule is the latest SSP trend. In brief, the rule throws out the inequality currently on display in the House, where the at-large district of Wyoming is dramatically overrepresented in terms of population compared to the average district in, say, Los Angeles.

I took on the task of drawing a Wyoming Rule map for New Mexico. Under the rule, the Land of Enchantment would add one congressional district. Using 2008 population estimates, I managed to draw a 3-1 map with no less than three VRA minority-majority coalition districts.

NM-01 (safe Democratic)

43% white, 4% Native, 47% Latino

64% Obama, 35% McCain

This district covers most of the Albuquerque area, excluding the whiter, more Republican suburbs and exurbs in eastern Bernadillo County and creeping up just barely into Sandoval County. It’s quite close to being an outright Latino-majority district; growth rates suggest it will be by the end of the decade, if I remember right. No reason studly Rep. Martin Heinrich couldn’t win here, as it’s a heavily Democratic district.

NM-02 (likely Democratic)

33% white, 17% Native, 48% Latino

58% Obama, 40% McCain

In Maryland, this would be a safe Democratic seat, but inconsistent voter turnout among Native Americans means that for New Mexico, this is just a district in which Democrats start off with a pretty decent advantage. Indeed, virtually all of this district will be represented by Republican Rep.-elect Steve Pearce in the 112th Congress, although western New Mexico tends to be more liberal than eastern New Mexico, which balances out the current NM-02 for a Republican-tilting swing district. Rep. Harry Teague could certainly win here, but as this district is likely to be outright majority-Latino by redistricting, the base might prefer a Latino representative.

NM-03 (safe Democratic)

43% white, 13% Native, 41% Latino

63% Obama, 36% McCain

This district in northern New Mexico is basically just a smaller version of Rep. Ben Ray Luján’s current district, ceding McKinley County and much of Sandoval County to NM-02 and ceding Quay, Curry, and Roosevelt counties to NM-04. It is strongly Democratic and actually plurality-white, although minority groups still make up the majority of the population. Luján would cruise here, much as he does in the current version of his district.

NM-04 (safe Republican)

60% white, 2% Native, 33% Latino

40% Obama, 58% McCain

The whitest, most conservative district in the Wyoming Rule drawing of New Mexico covers the state’s southeastern quadrant, with tendrils reaching into the Republican-tending eastern part of the greater Albuquerque area, including eastern Bernadillo County. Rep.-elect Pearce would be fine here.

Thoughts, either on the Wyoming Rule or on the New Mexico electoral map?

I like the idea of the Wyoming Rule. Take the population of the smallest state in the Union, divide the total U.S. population by it, and allocate however many seats that comes out to be according to each state’s population. Under the Wyoming Rule, Maryland would probably end up with 11 congressional districts at the next redistricting; assuming no population growth or decline, that puts each district’s population at roughly 481,500, although for this map, I’ve given each district a margin of about ±1,500, give or take a bit.

Spoiler alert: two of these districts are safe Republican, eight are safe Democratic, and one is a super-exciting swing district!

MD-01 (safe Republican)

85% white, 11% black

59% McCain, 39% Obama

This district covers most of the Eastern Shore, as well as rural, conservative northern Harford and Baltimore counties. It effectively soaks up big areas that Democrats don’t want. Rep.-elect Andy Harris could easily hold down this seat.

MD-02 (swing, lean Democrat)

75% white, 19% black

54% Obama, 44% McCain

This district covers the eastern Baltimore suburbs and exurbs, taking in portions of southern Harford and Baltimore counties, as well as some of the eastern reaches of Baltimore City and Anne Arundel County. It snakes awkwardly down the shoreline to capture the Democratic stronghold of Annapolis. If Rep. Frank Kratovil moved across the Bay, he could probably win this district without too much trouble.

MD-03 (safe Democratic)

40% white, 54% black

81% Obama, 17% McCain

This is a VRA district that goes straight down the middle of Baltimore City and includes some northern suburbs in Baltimore County. I’m not exactly sure where Rep. Elijah Cummings’s house is, but he could definitely win here. That would probably set up a primary showdown with Rep. John Sarbanes, though, unless he moved elsewhere.

MD-04 (safe Democratic)

46% white, 48% black

71% Obama, 28% McCain

It turns out that under the Wyoming Rule, the Baltimore area actually needs two VRA districts. This is actually a coalition district, technically, with black residents making up only 48% of the district’s population by 2000 numbers. It includes western Baltimore City while soaking up some of the western and northern Baltimore County suburbs and exurbs, none of which are numerous enough to really threaten Democrats here. As with MD-03, Rep. Cummings could win here easily. Rep. Dutch Ruppersberg, who I believe lives here, could win as well.

MD-05 (safe Democratic)

69% white, 12% black

61% Obama, 37% McCain

Incorporating some of central Maryland’s swingier rural areas in Howard, Montgomery, and Frederick counties with a few Democratic bastions like the cities of Frederick and Gaithersburg, this is a fairly solid Democratic district that is almost entirely within the D.C. media market. Jennifer Dougherty, who ran against Rep. Roscoe Bartlett in 2008 and used to be Frederick’s mayor, would probably win in a walk here.

MD-06 (safe Republican)

93% white, 4% black

62% McCain, 36% Obama

This district soaks up the Panhandle, Carroll County, and most of Frederick County. It’s a community of interest, and keeping it that way avoids some unpleasantness for surrounding Democrats. If Rep. Bartlett ran for reelection here, he’d be a lock to win.

MD-07 (safe Democratic)

70% white, 20% black

59% Obama, 39% McCain

This district includes eastern Howard County and western Anne Arundel County, as well as collecting some southern Baltimore County suburbs. It went for President Obama by 20 points, so I’m calling it safe, unless anybody objects. If Rep. Sarbanes moved down here from Towson, considering this MD-07 includes most of his current district anyway, I think he could win easily.

MD-08 (safe Democratic)

63% white, 28% black

63% Obama, 36% McCain

By balancing out Republican-leaning Anne Arundel County with parts of northern and eastern Prince George’s County, one of the country’s bluest, this district should be a walk for a competent Democrat. I don’t think any of Maryland’s current representatives are likely to run here, though.

MD-09 (safe Democratic)

64% white, 11% black

72% Obama, 27% McCain

This Montgomery County district is basically just a smaller version of Rep. Chris Van Hollen’s current district, MD-08. It eschews the tendril into Prince George’s County and cedes some space to surrounding districts, but it remains strongly Democratic. Van Hollen could win here without trouble, and I think he already lives within its boundaries.

MD-10 (safe Democratic)

17% white, 64% black

93% Obama, 7% McCain

This suburban district would be one of the most strongly Democratic districts in the country even under the Wyoming Rule, including most of the majority-black and -Latino parcels of land in Prince George’s and Montgomery counties. Rep. Donna Edwards would be a natural fit for this district.

MD-11 (safe Democratic)

60% white, 34% black

65% Obama, 34% McCain

This district of remainders stretches across the Chesapeake Bay to encompass Somerset and Worcester counties on the Eastern Shore as well as Charles, St. Mary’s, and Calvert counties in southern Maryland. It also stretches up into Prince George’s County to solidify its Democratic orientation. Rep. Steny Hoyer, soon to be the House minority whip, lives here and could win here without trouble.

Your thoughts, either on the map or the Wyoming Rule (or both)?

So here we are at the end of the 2010 race (well, almost at the end – there are still a couple of uncalled races). These are my picks for best and worst campaigns of this cycle. What are yours? And tell me if you agree or disagree with any of these

BEST CAMPAIGNS

Harry Reid – NV-SENATE This was a masterpiece, one of those campaigns that will be studied for decades as an example of how to win in a negative environment. Reid’s ads were brilliant, his strategy was forward thinking (i.e. he started knocking out potential opponenents in 2008) and he did a great job with GOTV and the other essentials. Yes, he got lucky in his opponent (and very unlucky in the cycle he was running), but given how at one point it looked like the Republicans could run a ferret against Harry Reid (oh wait, I guess they did) and still win, this still was an amazing comeback story.

Ron Johnson – WI-SENATE Yes, Feingold had underperformed in the past, but he had also survived a Republican year in 2004, and his outsider cred had beaten Republicans three times before. But Johnson ran a canny campaign that turned Feingold into a Washington insider, and managed to pull the biggest upset of an incumbent Senator of the cycle.

Rick Scott – FL-GOVERNOR This one pains me, because I think Scott is a loathsome individual. But the fact of the matter is, to get such a loathsome individual across the finish line against an incumbent Attorney General and the respected CFO of the state, you have to have a pretty good campaign. Best move: tarring Sink with the same corruption brush that had been used against Scott, even though the cases weren’t even close to similar.

National Republican Campaign Committee The NRCC and Pete Sessions got ridiculed a fair amount on this site and others for their poor fundraising compared to the DCCC, but it turns out they were probably the smartest of any of the big campaign committees, opening up new opportunities throughout September and October. They certainly outperformed the more respected RGA.

Barbara Boxer – CA-SENATE Boxer is thought to be in trouble every campaign cycle, and everytime she outperforms expectations. Give the woman some respect.

John Kasich – OH-GOVERNOR Yeah, Portman blew his opponent away, whereas Kasich race was much closer, and yes Ohio’s economy is in the crapper, but he still had a tough job in beating Ted Stickland, who’s unpopularity never reached the level of some other Midwestern governors. Along with Scott’s win, the biggest victory (in terms of influence) for the Republicans on election night.  

Marco Rubio – FL-SENATE Rubio showed some mad (and for us Dems, potentially scary) political skills in first driving Crist out of the Republican party, and secondly, beating both his opponents with just under 50 percent of the vote.

Bob Dold – IL-10 It’s hard to single out one House campaign as being better than the others in a wave year, but Dold won a seat almost none of the pundits thought he could win, and (with Costa apparently holding on) pulled off the most Democratic seat of the cycle. Gotta give the guy props for that.

Lisa Murkowski – AK-SENATE (write in campaign only). Murkowski ran one of the worst campaigns up until the primary, but the fact she seems about to win as the first write in candidate for Senate since the 1950’s is pretty amazing, and deserves some credit.

Ben Chandler One of the few Dems to survive Tuesday’s apocalypse. In a R+9 district, no small feat.

WORST CAMPAIGNS

Meg Whitman, CA-GOVERNOR How could you spend so much money, and lose so badly?

Lee Fisher, OH-SENATE Fisher’s campaign was basically all downhill after he won the primary.

DCCC We all loved Chris Van Hollen after the 2008 cycle, but I think he made a huge strategic error in not cutting more Democrats loose when he realized how bad the wave was going to be.

Alan Grayson, FL-08 One last thing to say about Grayson – when is the last time a Democrat was responsible for the most sleazy, misleading ad of the campaign?

Jim Oberstar, MN-08 Of all the committee chairs to lose this cycle, Oberstar was the only one to lose in a Democratic district (according to PVI). He should have seen this one coming.  

As we all know, Republicans very, very narrowly fell short of taking the governorship of Oregon. Oregonians instead opted to send former Gov. John Kitzhaber back to the governor’s mansion over Republican Chris Dudley, best known for playing basketball.

Republicans also came extremely close to capturing slim majorities in both the State House and the State Senate. The State House is now evenly split, while it appears Democrats will hang onto a majority of one or two in the Senate.

If Republicans had garnered just another point in the statewide popular vote, it seems likely they would have flipped both houses of the Oregon state legislature and installed Chris Dudley as governor, giving them a trifecta in the Beaver State. As a left-leaning independent and an Oregonian expat, let me just take a moment to editorialize by way of gagging.

With redistricting coming up, Republicans could have taken control and gerrymandered Oregon, provided they could agree on a map (otherwise, Secy. Kate Brown, Oregon’s Democratic secretary of state, would have been constitutionally empowered to draw one up – which, as it is, puts considerable pressure on Republicans to compromise with Democrats). Here’s one they might have liked.

I’ve done what any self-respecting, all-powerful Republican trifecta would do, and I’ve just handed Democrats the Willamette River Valley while giving Republicans two seats in the rest of the state.

There should be little controversy about the Portland metropolitan area. The new OR-01 I’ve drawn would have been, if Republicans had won and drew this map, one of the most Democratic districts in the entire country; Rep. Blumenauer’s Republican opponent, Delia Lopez, picked up three percent of the vote in the portion of Multnomah County in Blumenauer’s district, currently OR-03. Note: I spent so much time playing around with the district lines that some of the district numbers are mixed up.

OR-01 here includes some of the most liberal parts of Clackamas County, including Milwaukee. Rep. Blumenauer would thrive here, obviously.

As for OR-05, it includes most of Portland’s western suburbs, as well as some of the most swingy parts of Clackamas County. It’d probably be a Democratic district, but an Oregonian answer to Reps. Reichert or Tiberi might be able to flip it in a good year.

I originally had OR-05 reaching up into Columbia County to encompass St. Helens and Scappoose, but I decided against it. They were instead awarded to OR-04, which thus holds the entire Oregon Coast. OR-04 also reaches inland to western Washington, Yamhill, and Polk counties. It’s almost entirely rural, and despite Astoria and a few other lean Democratic cities in northwestern Oregon, it would be safely Republican.

The reason OR-04 would be safely Republican is simple: Eugene has been gerrymandered into a district with the lean Democratic cities of the Willamette River Valley, including the capital of Salem and its suburbs. Conservative Albany is left to OR-04. Because of the way OR-03 is drawn, it would be a pretty safe Democratic district, especially considering the surging Latino population in and around Salem.

OR-02, currently Rep. Walden’s district, remains safely Republican, soaking up the swingy population centers of Bend, Medford, Ashland, and Hood River with the entirety of hard-right eastern Oregon, as well as most of fairly conservative central and southern Oregon.

In plain speech, OR-02 and OR-04 would be safely Republican, while OR-01, OR-03, and OR-05 would be Democratic. Definitely a good thing Republicans didn’t manage to take over Salem this year.

BONUS: Just for kicks, here’s a picture of the way I originally gerrymandered OR-03:

I decided Bend would be fine in OR-02 and it would be best to keep the district more compact and inclusive of the Salem suburbs, not just the I-5 corridor down the Willamette River Valley. The way this district is drawn would force OR-03 to spill into Clackamas County. While it’s funny (and hideous), I decided it wasn’t practical.

Okay, so, Maryland has the trifecta, and it’s not afraid to use it. Republicans get to carve up some states they control in particularly nasty, ugly ways (I’m not looking forward to seeing how Augusta determines to create a 1-1 split, probably ousting Rep. Michaud in the process; North Carolina will be a veritable bloodbath in redistricting, and New Jersey won’t be much better), so I think Democrats should get to fight back in states like Maryland, Washington, and hopefully New York.

So, without further ado, I present to you a positively wicked 7-1 redistricting proposal for my state of residence.

Let’s start with MD-01. I guess the app decided to plop the “CD01” right where D.C. is, so just to be clear, I’m not advocating Maryland annex the nation’s capital as its new 1st congressional district.

MD-01 is pretty straightforward. I chopped most of the population centers out of Rep. Bartlett’s MD-06, including the swing city of Frederick, and combined it with Rep.-elect Harris’s Eastern Shore district, now with 100% less Anne Arundel County. Back to that in a second.

The important thing about MD-01 is that it’s the Republican district. According to the app, this hypothetical new MD-01 gave Sen. McCain 58% of the vote in 2008, with only 40% for the skinny Illinois senator we now know as President Barack Obama. This MD-01 would not be the safest Republican district in the country, but it’d be pretty safe.

Next up, MD-02. It was roughly at this point that I realized how messed up the current congressional districts of Maryland are. It’s bad enough to include parts of Anne Arundel County in a district with the Eastern Shore, but the way in which Rep. Ruppersberger’s district is drawn would be punishable by death in some countries.

What I decided to do is simplify things without sacrificing, well, let’s call it functionality. I also needed a way to swallow up some populous parts of MD-01, namely most of Baltimore County and parts of Harford County. This MD-02 includes parts of Baltimore City, although less than is currently drawn into the district because it no longer slithers south into Anne Arundel County. I mean, come on, guys.

The tradeoff of consolidating MD-02 with an eye toward siphoning off conservative MD-01 constituents and balancing them with ultra-liberal North Baltimore (the parts of Baltimore City included are a mix of super-white and super-black precincts, because a Democrat is a Democrat and we don’t make bones about it in MD-05) is that the district isn’t quite as solidly Democratic, but it’s hardly a swing district in an average year. Obama won this hypothetical MD-02 with 57% of the vote; McCain scraped up 41%.

And now for MD-03. If the current MD-02’s blatant and bizarre gerrymandered shape merited the death penalty, the lawman would bring back hanging, drawing, and quartering for MD-03. Staunchly liberal Rep. Sarbanes holds court over this district, drawn for the benefit of white dudes just like him, right now.

Because the way MD-03 is drawn right now is just plain stupid and there was still some of Harford County that needed addressing, I decided to run the new MD-03 from a tiny portion of western Cecil County, technically part of the Eastern Shore, into southern Baltimore County, with some spillage into northern Anne Arundel County and a weird little tentacle extending briefly into Howard County. It also includes the lion’s share of Baltimore City. I’ll grant it’s not tons better-looking in my drawing than it is now, but at least I didn’t gerrymander it for the benefit of those poor besotted white Democrats.

My version of MD-03 is DemStrong, having gone 60% for Obama to 38% for McCain in 2008. It’s now 30% black, proportionally almost twice what it is now, but if Sarbanes or some other white Democrat can’t get African Americans to vote for him, that’s his problem.

On to MD-04. I don’t know why this district is drawn so weirdly right now, because I feel like the way I’ve drawn it makes a lot more sense. Oh, I’ve got it: it’s gerrymandered to be majority-black. Rep. Edwards, who is a damn good congresswoman, represents our current version of MD-04.

My version of MD-04 covers about half of Montgomery County, a few conservative precincts in Howard County I didn’t want going elsewhere, and most of northern Prince George’s County. It would become the new home of the University of Maryland, which doesn’t hurt a Democrat’s vote share.

Indeed, this version of MD-04 went for Obama 75-24. That’s dominating. I could probably feed more of Howard County into this district if I wanted to, but I decided to keep things as even as possible between the eight (2000 population for all is between 661,000 and 663,000, by the way).

MD-05 is my district. I switched around some parts of the eastern D.C. suburbs for compactness, although my incarnation of the district now represented by Rep. Hoyer, the House majority leader for not a whole lot longer, still has a weird finger extending into northern Prince George’s County, capturing Greenbelt and a few other mid-sized suburbs.

The majority-black eastern suburbs more than balance out swingy southern Maryland in my drawing of MD-05. This new district would actually be majority-black according to the 2000 Census, which says 51% of its hypothetical constituents are African American.

As you might expect, this MD-05 is heavily Democratic. It would have broken 77-23 for Obama if it had been a district back in 2008; either way, that’s what the voters who would be within its new boundaries did.

MD-06 is fun. It’s a completely different district in its present form, being the domain of arch-conservative Rep. Roscoe Barlett in northern and western Maryland. As mentioned before, I had MD-01 consume most of MD-06, so this new district is more fun.

This MD-06 is not the most fun, but it’s certainly the most all-new, because I basically carved it out of parts of the current MD-01, MD-03, and MD-04. It’s basically almost all of Anne Arundel County plus a good chunk of Prince George’s County, including Bowie, a midpoint city between D.C. and Baltimore.

Ultra-liberal Bowie and somewhat liberal Annapolis serve to balance out conservative Anne Arundel County. Voters in this hypothetical MD-06 broke 57-41 for Obama, which is not so bad when you consider the current version of MD-06 has a PVI of R+13.

Helping mop up is MD-07. Right now, MD-07 is a majority-black district represented by Rep. Cummings and covering most of the black neighborhoods of Baltimore City and Baltimore County, as well as most of Howard County. It had to take a hit, and I apologize for that.

There was a lot of the current MD-06 to split up, and a good portion of it was awarded to this proposed MD-07. It’s basically the current MD-07 with a few neighborhoods in Baltimore City split off and given to MD-02 and MD-03, then a huge swath of Carroll County and about a third of Frederick County absorbed for population balance. It’s a lot bigger, but it’s not abnormal population-wise (still falls within that range I mentioned earlier, at least under the 2000 Census).

Despite expanding to cover so large an area of rural, conservative Carroll County, this MD-07 would remain a Democratic stronghold. It broke 2:1 for Obama in 2008. It’s only 39% black with so much of mostly-white Carroll and Frederick counties added in, but a Democrat should be able to walk away with any election here regardless of race.

Last but not least, MD-08. Currently represented by plucky DCCC chair Rep. Van Hollen, the present version of MD-08 covers most of Montgomery County, in particular the eastern, whiter parts of Maryland’s richest county-level subdivision.

I decided I could put it to better use, so I gave parts of Montgomery County to MD-04 without radically changing the boundaries, and then I expanded up into Frederick County and parts of southern Washington County. This is where the city of Frederick, which broke fairly decisively for Obama in 2008, wound up.

The new MD-08 would have a 2008 voter breakdown almost identical to that of MD-07. 66% of its voters went for Obama; 32% of them went for McCain. It’s only 10% black, because of how predominantly white Frederick County and the parts of Montgomery County is covers are.

So there you have it. It can be done. Let’s hope Annapolis pulls the trigger, because we shouldn’t let the Republicans have all the fun in 2012 redistricting.

At long last, I have finished making predictions, this time mixing my “gut feeling” predictions from earlier with the formula prediction methods I had used since 2006. I found the dearth of House polls very annoying, so many of my House predictions could be way off. We shall see in 12 or so hours.

GOVERNOR

Alabama: Bentley by 15.33%

Alaska: Parnell by 15.67%

Arizona: Brewer by 15%

Arkansas: Beebe by 25.67%

California: Brown by 14.33%

Colorado: Hickenlooper by 3.67%

Connecticut: Malloy by 5.67%

Florida: Sink by 1.67%

Georgia: Deal by 7.67%

Hawaii: Abercrombie by 5%

Idaho: Otter by 22%

Illinois: Brady by 4.67%

Iowa: Branstad by 10.5%

Kansas: Brownback by 27%

Maine: LePage by 11.33%

Maryland: O’Malley by 12.67%

Massachusetts: Patrick by 2.67%

Michigan: Snyder by 16.67%

Minnesota: Dayton by 1.33%

Nebraska: Heineman by 42%

Nevada: Sandoval by 15.67%

New Hampshire: Lynch by 8.33%

New Mexico: Martinez by 8.33%

New York: Cuomo by 22%

Ohio: Strickland by 1%

Oklahoma: Fallin by 18.5%

Oregon: Kitzhaber by 1.67%

Pennsylvania: Corbett by 9%

Rhode Island: Chafee by 8%

South Carolina: Haley by 8.33%

South Dakota: Daugaard by 13.67%

Tennessee: Haslam by 28%

Texas: Perry by 1%

Utah: Herbert by 25.33%

Vermont: Shumlin by 2%

Wisconsin: Walker by 8.67%

Wyoming: Mead by 36%

OVERALL: Republicans gain a net of 5 for the majority of governorships, 27-22-1

SENATE

Alabama: Shelby by 28%

Alaska: McAdams by 0.67% (Miller in 2nd; Murkowski in 3rd)

Arizona: McCain by 23%

Arkansas: Boozman by 19.67%

California: Boxer by 6.67%

Colorado: Buck by 1%

Connecticut: Blumenthal by 8%

Delaware: Coons by 14%

Florida: Rubio by 16%

Georgia: Isakson by 25.67%

Hawaii: Inouye by 24.5%

Idaho: Crapo by 44%

Illinois: Kirk by 4.33%

Indiana: Coats by 10.33%

Iowa: Grassley by 31%

Kansas: Moran by 40%

Kentucky: Paul by 3.18%

Louisiana: Vitter by 5.87%

Maryland: Mikulski by 26.67%

Missouri: Robin Carnahan by 0.67%

Nevada: Reid by 0.67%

New Hampshire: Ayotte by 15%

New York A: Schumer by 28.67%

New York B: Gillibrand by 18.33%

North Carolina: Burr by 12.33%

North Dakota: Hoeven by 47%

Ohio: Portman by 9.83%

Oklahoma: Coburn by 40%

Oregon: Wyden by 15.33%

Pennsylvania: Toomey by 4.67%

South Carolina: DeMint by 42% (The Green candidate may get more votes than the Greene candidate.)

South Dakota: Thune by 70-90%

Utah: Lee by 25.33%

Vermont: Leahy by 35%

Washington: Murray by 1.88%

West Virginia: Manchin by 1.33%

Wisconsin: Johnson by 7.67%

OVERALL: Republicans gain a net of 5, but Democrats retain control 54-46

HOUSE

Light Blue = D+1; Light Red = R+1; Red = R+2; Medium-Dark Red = R+3; Dark Red = R+4; Very Dark Red = R+5

AL-02: Bright by 3.75%

AZ-01: Gosar by 4% (R pickup)

AZ-03: Hulburd by 1.17% (D pickup)

AZ-05: Schweikert by 0.67% (R pickup)

AZ-07: Grijalva by 4.08%

AZ-08: Giffords by 6.12%

AR-01: Crawford by 5.56% (R pickup)

AR-02: Griffin by 11% (R pickup)

CA-03: Lungren by 3.75%

CA-11: McNerney by 2.75%

CA-18: Cardoza by 10.75%

CA-20: Costa by 2.87%

CA-44: Calvert by 13.17%

CA-45: Bono Mack by 15%

CA-47: Sanchez by 8.25%

CO-03: Salazar by 1.25%

CO-04: Gardner by 3.58% (R pickup)

CT-04: Himes by 2.42%

CT-05: Murphy by 4.17%

DE-AL: Carney by 9.83% (D pickup)

FL-02: Southerland by 9.25% (R pickup)

FL-08: Webster by 3.25% (R pickup)

FL-22: Klein by 0.94%

FL-24: Adams by 6.25% (R pickup)

FL-25: Rivera by 3%

GA-02: Bishop by 2.67%

GA-08: Scott by 12.5% (R pickup)

HI-01: Hanabusa by 2.17% (D pickup)

ID-01: Minnick by 2.42%

IL-10: Seals by 7.6% (D pickup)

IL-11: Kinzinger by 5.13% (R pickup)

IL-14: Hultgren by 0.31% (R pickup)

IL-17: Schilling by 2.63% (R pickup)

IN-02: Donnelly by 4.38%

IN-08: Buschon by 8.75% (R pickup)

IN-09: Hill by 0.52%

IA-01: Braley by 10%

IA-02: Loebsack by 8.75%

IA-03: Boswell by 8.07%

KS-03: Yoder by 10% (R pickup)

KY-03: Yarmuth by 10.5%

KY-06: Chandler by 3.69%

LA-02: Richmond by 11.83% (D pickup)

LA-03: Landry by 12.25% (R pickup)

ME-01: Pingree by 12.42%

MD-01: Harris by 4.92% (R pickup)

MA-10: Keating by 2.63%

MI-01: Benishek by 2.71% (R pickup)

MI-07: Schauer by 0.44%

MI-09: Peters by 3.88%

MN-01: Walz by 10.42%

MN-08: Oberstar by 4.88%

MS-01: Childers by 0.88%

MS-04: Taylor by 2.69%

MO-03: Russ Carnahan by 5.63%

NV-03: Titus by 0.33%

NH-01: Guinta by 10.25% (R pickup)

NH-02: Bass by 0.08% (R pickup)

NJ-03: Runyan by 1.13% (R pickup)

NM-01: Barela by 0.63% (R pickup)

NM-02: Pearce by 4.83% (R pickup)

NY-01: Bishop by 7.56%

NY-13: McMahon by 7.5%

NY-19: Hayworth by 1.02% (R pickup)

NY-20: Gibson by 3.46% (R pickup)

NY-23: Owens by 0.88%

NY-24: Arcuri by 3.31%

NY-25: Maffei by 6.58%

NY-29: Zeller by 12.5% (R pickup)

NC-02: Etheridge by 2.5%

NC-07: McIntyre by 3.75%

NC-08: Kissell by 2.38%

NC-11: Shuler by 11.88%

ND-AL: Berg by 4.97% (R pickup)

OH-01: Chabot by 6.25% (R pickup)

OH-06: Wilson by 2.06%

OH-13: Sutton by 10%

OH-15: Stivers by 6.25% (R pickup)

OH-16: Renacci by 0.63% (R pickup)

OH-18: Gibbs by 1.88% (R pickup)

OR-05: Schrader by 2.75%

PA-03: Kelly by 6.25% (R pickup)

PA-04: Altmire by 12.58%

PA-07: Meehan by 3.83% (R pickup)

PA-08: Fitzpatrick by 4.53% (R pickup)

PA-10: Marino by 4.57% (R pickup)

PA-11: Barletta by 2.13% (R pickup)

PA-12: Critz by 5.38%

PA-15: Dent by 11.63%

RI-01: Cicilline by 4.94%

SC-05: Mulvaney by 4.75% (R pickup)

SD-AL: Noem by 0.31% (R pickup)

TN-04: DesJarlais by 1% (R pickup)

TN-06: Black by 12.5% (R pickup)

TN-08: Fincher by 9.5% (R pickup)

TX-17: Edwards by 1.72%

TX-23: Rodriguez by 2.15%

TX-27: Ortiz by 2.88%

VA-02: Rigell by 3.04% (R pickup)

VA-05: Hurt by 5.28% (R pickup)

VA-09: Boucher by 4.5%

WA-02: Larsen by 5.75%

WA-03: Herrera by 3.56% (R pickup)

WA-08: Reichert by 5.38%

WV-01: McKinley by 2.25% (R pickup)

WI-03: Kind by 8.75%

WI-07: Duffy by 7.21% (R pickup)

WI-08: Ribble by 5.46% (R pickup)

OVERALL: Republicans gain a net of 42 for control 220-215

I think I’m about to post the most optimistic set of predictions this board will probably see. Aside from a brutal South, I think Dems will be relatively okay through the rest of the nation.

(As a side note, I’ll be knocking doors in Pittsburgh all day tomorrow, so I’m signing off until 9PM-ish tomorrow.)

Reasoning:

1. I fundamentally believe that the polling is off in our favor-too much Razzy goodness, too much crappy Republican internal polling, and bad, bad LV models (also cell phone effect) have been baked into the so called “cake”. I just don’t buy it (either that or I’m in denial).

2. …..except in the South, there I do buy the polling actually being as bad as it is.

3. The other major thing that should help Democrats, especially in the Philadelphia-Kansas City corridor is the GOTV ground game brought to you by your friendly local unions. This conversely explains why the South will be so bad.

4. In key states, like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and New York,  while they may not all win, Senate and Gubernatorial candidates are doing well enough to save the Chris Carneys, John Salazars, Zack Spaces, and John Halls of the world.

5. Too many bad GOP candidates like Allan West, Tim Walberg, Tom Marino, Andy Harris and Sharron Angle (among many others).

6. Everyone remembers the great GOP landslide of 1998, don’t we….

Senate

Senate (D-4)

North Dakota

Indiana

Arkansas

Wisconsin (though I can easily see PA here)

House:

Republican Gains (31)

South (14)

Arkansas 1st

Arkansas 2nd

Florida 2nd

Florida 8th

Florida 24th

Georgia 8th

Louisiana 3rd

Mississippi 1st

Tennessee 4th

Tennessee 6th

Tennessee 8th

Texas 17th

Virginia 2nd

Virginia 5th

Northeast (5)

New Hampshire 1st

New York 29th

Pennsylvania 3rd

Pennsylvania 7th

Pennsylvania 11th

Midwest (9)

Michigan 1st

Illinois 11th

Illinois 17th

Indiana 8th

Kansas 3rd

Ohio 1st

Ohio 15th

Wisconsin 7th

Wisconsin 8th

West (3)

Arizona 1st

Colorado 4th

New Mexico 2nd

Democratic Pickups (7)

Arizona 3rd ****UPSET SPECIAL****

Delawrare-AL

Florida 25th

Hawaii 1st

Illinois 10th

Louisiana 2nd

Washington 8th ****UPSET SPECIAL****

D-held house seats:

I would be shocked if Dems held any of these: AR 2, CO 4, FL 2, FL 8, FL 24, IL 11, IN 8, KS 3, LA 3, NY 29, OH 1, OH 15, PA 3, TN 6, TN 8, TX 17. +16 R.

I would be surprised but not shocked if Dems held any of these: MD 1, MS 1, NH 1, PA 7, VA 2, VA 5, WA 3. +5.6 R if each has an 80% chance to go R.

I’d bet the Reep if I had to bet, but would not be surprised if Dems held any of these: AR 1, AZ 1, WI 7, WI 8, MI 1, PA 8, OH 16, NV 3, NM 2, SC 5, ND, GA 8, NY 20, NJ 3, CO 3, NH 2, IL 17. +10.2 R if each has a 60% chance to go R.

I’d bet the Dem if I had to bet, but would not be surprised if Reeps took any of these: AZ 5, AL 2, IL 14, NY 19, NY 23, PA 10, PA 11, SD, MI 7, WV 1, OH 18, FL 22, NC 8, IN 9, TN 4, TX 23, MS 4. +6.8 R if each has a 40% chance to go R.

I would be surprised but not shocked if Reeps took any of these: CT 4, CT 5, MN 8, IA 2, ID 1, IN 2, MO 4, NY 24, NY 25, PA 12, MI 9, AZ 8, OR 5, WA 2, NC 7, MA 10, NM 1, CA 11, CA 20, CA 22, CA 47, VA 9, VA 11, OH 6, CO 7. +5.0 R if each has a 20% chance to go R.

I would be shocked if any other Dem seats flipped. That includes NC 11 and NY 22.

R-held seats:

I would be shocked if Reeps held DE. +1 D.

I would be surprised but not shocked if Reeps held any of these: HI 1, IL 10, LA 2. +2.4 D if each has an 80% chance to go D.

I’d bet the Reep if I had to bet, but would not be surprised if Dems took FL 25. +0.4D if the Dem has a 40% shot.

I would be surprised but not shocked if Dems took WA 8 or CA 3. +0.4 D if each has a 20% chance to go D.

I would be shocked if any other Reep seats flipped.

So I have Reeps flipping an expected 43.6 seats, Dems flipping 4.2, for a net of 39.4 to the Reeps…hmm. If I had to bet I’d bet the over, as I suspect my ratings may be too favorable to Dems. I’ll just round up to 40.

Senate:

D-held seats:

ND, AR, IN 100% to flip.

WI 90%

PA 75%

IL 55%

CO 50%

NV 40%

WA 25%

WV 20%

CA 5%

CT 5%

Everything else, forget it. R +6.65.

R-held seats:

AK 20% counting Murk as a Reep.

KY 5%

MO 5%

and that’s it. D +0.3.

Net of 6.35 seats to the Reeps, call it 6 because Senate races are easier to keep track of.

So that’s a net of 40 House seats and 6 Senate seats to the Reeps.