I aimed for a 27-1 district so I could shore up all the Democrats. I thought about going for a 28-0 district but I believe the main priority should be protecting the Democrats in Upstate New York because many of them hold marginal districts. Chris Lee is the only Republican in the Upstate New York Congressional delegation. I strengthened him while I gave Peter King (R) who represents the 3rd Congressional district a very tough time in Long Island. He lives in Seaford which is in eastern Nassau County along the coast. It is possible he could win but it is very unlikely. I also aimed to retain the African American majority of the 6th, 10th and 11th districts and increase the African American population of the 15th district. I also kept the 16th district’s heavy Hispanic majority, and made the 12th and 7th Hispanic majority districts. I also made sure no district (except the 26th which Chris Lee represents) fell below 53% for Obama (only the 2nd district was 53% for Obama.) The 1st, 20th, 22nd, 23rd and 24th were all 54% for Obama, though. The district I eliminated was Freshman Eric Massa’s (D) 29th district which contained some rural areas and part of Monroe County (Rochester.) Massa lived in Corning which is far away from Rochester, McCain won the district and I had to eliminate someone so I chose him. Just for your info, the home of each representative is next to his or her name. Also, current percentages show how well each presidential candidate performed in the current lines of a congressional district. The change shows how better or worse Obama’s performance is in the district I drew compared to the old one. “Important areas” refers to important areas inside the district I drew. Also, I tried to not draw convoluted districts except I did not succeed with the 4th. I did not want to make big changes because in my opinion, realistically, the map if the Democrats control the State Senate should not be too different from the current map but it should still strengthen Democrats. Here are some helpful links:

For maps and information on current Congressional districts: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N…

For election results by county: http://www.uselectionatlas.org…

For demographic data by county: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…

where you can find locations of certain towns and neighborhoods: http://maps.google.com/

Long Island

1st District Tim Bishop (D) Southampton

Vote totals: Obama 162,072 54%, McCain 135,928 45%

Demographics: 6% African American, 11% Hispanic and 79% White    

Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 48% Change: Obama +5

Population: 701,151

Important areas: Suffolk County, Riverhead, Port Jefferson and Islip. I removed Smithtown from the district which is politically marginal. I added in heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Islip to help strengthen Bishop. These changes are not foolproof protections but he is much safer than he currently is so I expect him to be fine. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

2nd district Steve Israel (D) Huntington Village

Vote totals: Obama 157,988 53%, McCain 139,528 47%

Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White

Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43%

Change: Obama -7

Population:700,773              

Important areas: Suffolk County, Nassau County, Brentwood, part of Huntington, part of Oyster Bay, part of Islip, Smithtown, and Babylon. I weakened Israel a bit by removing Democratic parts of Islip and adding in more of the Republican South Coast, including part of Peter King’s current district. I retained Jewish neighborhoods in Oyster Bay and a few Hispanic neighborhoods in Islip. Peter King does not live in this district and since only a bit of his current district is in the 2nd, I do not see him running here. He may try but since he is running in mostly unfamiliar territory, he should not have the best shot. Israel’s district has the lowest Obama performance (except for the 26th.) Still, he has faced token opposition in recent years winning 67% of the vote in 2008. His strong stance on Israel should keep him strong among Jewish voters. Unless a very strong challenger such as Peter King challenges Israel, he should be fine. Status is Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic if Peter King runs.

3rd District Peter King (R)

Vote totals: Obama 184,548 58%, McCain 134,192 41%

Demographics: 18% African American, 11% Hispanic and 66% White

Current percentages: McCain 52% Obama 47%

Change: Obama +22

Population: 700,433

Important areas: Nassau County, a tiny slice of Queens County, Hempstead, South Oyster Bay and Long Beach. Peter King has no good options with the new map. This district contains large parts of his old district so if I were him, I would probably chose to run here. There are just a few problems for him: his district is now 68% White instead of 86% White, the district has heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Hempstead, Valley Stream and a few precincts in Queens where Obama won 98% of the vote (no, I am not kidding.) McCain won 52% under the current lines and even though King has most of his base here, about half of the district is new territory and the new territory is heavily Democratic. King may put up a strong fight but he is unlikely to make inroads in the district’s new territory so he should lose by a few points. If Andrew Cuomo (D) runs for Governor, he should boost up the Democratic ticket and King will certainly lose. Status is Lean Democratic if Peter King runs, Likely Democratic if he does not.

4th District Carolyn McCarthy (D) Mineola

Vote totals: Obama 170,373 56%, McCain 134,300 43%

Demographics: 8% African American, 10% Hispanic, 11% Asian and 68% White Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 41% Change: Obama -4

Population:700,400

Important areas: Nassau County, Queens County, Suffolk County, Huntington, Glen Cove, Oyster Bay, Oakland Gardens and Mineola. McCarthy should not be overjoyed with her district but she should be safe. It is a bit convoluted because I had it take marginal parts of Huntington and then I sent the district into Queens to get some Democratic neighborhoods. Most of those neighborhoods were in the 60’s for Obama. McCarthy would have to get used to her new territory but it is Democratic enough to keep her safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

5th District Gary Ackerman (D) Rosalyn Heights vs. Joseph Crowley (D) Elmhurst

Vote totals: Obama 127,658 59%, McCain 85,585 40%

Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 26% Asian and 50% White

Current percentages: Obama 63% McCain 36% Change: Obama -8

Population: 701,084  

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Great Neck, Little Neck, Beechcrest and Rosalyn Heights. The Queens portion of the district used to be very white and working class but now it is one of the most diverse areas in the country. Still, the district is not minority majority yet but in a few years, it will be. Ackerman gains some Republican parts of Nassau County while losing some heavily Hispanic areas in Queens to the 12th district. Still, he is very safe and he has a smaller chance of a minority candidate giving him a strong primary challenge. The only part of Crowley’s district that the 5th has is Crowley’s home Elmhurst so I expect him to run in the current 7th district which has most of his old district. He would probably lose to Ackerman in a primary if he ran here. Status is Safe Democratic.

New York City

6th District Gregory Meeks (D) Far Rockaway

Vote totals: Obama 195,708 78%, McCain 52,681 21%

Demographics: 50% African American, 13% Hispanic, 6% Asian and 25% White.

Current percentages: Obama 89% McCain 11%

Change:Obama-21

Population:701,133

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Rockaway, Jamaica, Queens Village and Locust Manor. The old 6th district has many Democrats to spare so I gave the 6th district Republican parts of the Rockaway Peninsula and Nassau County. The district’s numbers are pretty polarized because although Obama crushes McCain at a first glance, there are some precincts on Breezy Point (Rockaway Peninsula) that are 70% for McCain or more that I added here. To be able to take Republican parts of Nassau County while keeping the population African American majority, I had to extend the district across Jamaica Bay to include African American areas in Canarsie. Meeks has his home in this district; he should have absolutely no problem here. Status is Safe Democratic

7th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 155,777 84%, McCain 26,639 15%

Demographics: 21% African American, 52% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 19% White

Current percentages: Obama 79% McCain 20% Change: Obama +10

Population:701,275

Important areas: Queens County, Bronx County, Westchester County, Jackson Heights, Westchester Village and Eastchester Bay. Due to New York City’s growing Hispanic population, I realized it needed another Hispanic majority district. I removed College Park and Elmhurst while adding Longwood and other Hispanic neighborhoods in the Bronx. This increased the Hispanic population from 40% to 52%. If Crowley wanted to run, he would probably head here since this contains most of his old district. Since the district has a Hispanic majority, a Hispanic candidate should have a good shot even though Hispanics tend to have lower turnout than other groups of voters so they probably will not make up the majority of the district’s votes. I am expecting a three way race with an African American candidate, Joseph Crowley and a Hispanic candidate. I am not sure if Ruben Espinosa, a conservative Democrat who represents New York’s 32nd Senate district will run here but he may be too conservative for voters who are unfamiliar with him. Then again, there may not be a brawl if the establishment gets behind a candidate. The establishment should not be pleased with Espinosa because he was an advocate for preventing same sex couples from obtaining equal marriage rights. Anyway, no Republican should win here. Status is Safe Democratic.

8th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 135,904 66%, McCain 69,115 33%

Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 19%Asian and 65% White

Current percentages: Obama 74% McCain 26%

Change: Obama -15

Population: 700,805

Important areas: Brooklyn, Manhattan, Borough Park, Bay Ridge and Flatiron. Other changes I made included adding Bay Ridge and part of Chinatown while removing Coney Island, Chelsea and the Upper West Side. Besides water contiguity, the Brooklyn Bridge also connects the district. I removed Nadler’s home from the district but since the 8th still contains most of the old district, he will probably run here and win. Something interesting is how polarized certain parts of the district are. Borough Park has voting district BK48 022 where Obama only won 2% of the vote. This is probably because there is an Orthodox Jewish community there and they sometimes vote almost simultaneously for certain candidates. Anyway, the district is too Democratic for the Borough Park precincts to have an effect. Status is Safe Democratic.

9th District Anthony Weiner (D) Forest Hills

Vote totals: Obama 125,869 64%, McCain 69,328 35%

Demographics: 11% African American, 18% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 52% White

Current percentages: Obama 55% McCain 44% Change: Obama +18              

Population: 701,194

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Forest Hills, Brighton Beach and Ozone Park. I increased Obama’s percentage here from 55% to 64% by removing the Rockaway Peninsula and other not heavily Democratic neighborhoods. I also added African American neighborhoods in Flatlands, increasing the African American percentage here from 4% to 11%. Anyway, I do not see a Republican winning with these new changes. Status is Safe Democratic.

10th District Edolphus Towns (D) East New York

Vote totals: Obama 189,570 84%, McCain 34,120 15%

Demographics: 53% African American, 16% Hispanic and 24% White                            

Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9% Change: Obama -14

Population: 700,447

Important areas: Brooklyn, East New York, Brownsville and Bedford-Stuyvesant. This district undergoes a few changes by taking some primarily white neighborhoods and losing parts of Canarsie. I exchanged the neighborhoods with the 9th district to make the 9th safer for Weiner. The 10th still is heavily Democratic and complies with the VRA. Status is Safe Democratic.

11th District Yvette Clarke (D) Flatbush

Vote totals: Obama 190,135 88%, McCain 24,313 11%

Demographics: 52% African American, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 24% White.

Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9%

Change: Obama -5

Population: 700,427

Important areas: Brooklyn, Flatbush and Crown Heights. The 11th district does not change much either, remaining heavily African American and Democratic even though there a few precincts that voted 90% for McCain here. Status is Safe Democratic.

12th District Nydia Velazquez (D) Williamsburg

Vote totals: Obama 153,958 85%, McCain 26,105 14%

Demographics: 9% African American, 52% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 22% White.

Current percentages: Obama 86% McCain 13%

Change: Obama -2                

Population: 700,906

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Williamsburg, Fresh Pond Junction, and Lower East Side. The district is contiguous with Manhattan not just throughout water but also through a bridge. I shifted the district north to include some Hispanic neighborhoods east of Astoria and while removing some neighborhoods in Brooklyn for population purposes. These changes give this district a Hispanic majority even though they probably do not make up the majority of the voters yet. I assumed this because Hispanics usually have lower turnout levels than other voters’ turnout levels. I barely kept Velazquez’s home in this district by keeping it one voting district away from the 14th but at least she will not have to move. Overall, Velazquez should have no trouble in an election or a primary. Status is Safe Democratic.

13th District Michael McMahon (D) Staten Island

Vote totals: Obama 165,015 62%, McCain 100,172 37%

Demographics: 8% African American, 13% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 70% White

Current percentages: Obama 49% McCain 51% Change: Obama +27

Population:700,828

Important areas: all of Richmond County (Staten Island,) Manhattan, Chelsea, Hell’s Kitchen and the Financial District. In 2008, McMahon was elected into the current 13th district which McCain narrowly won. I made sure McMahon has no trouble here by connecting the district to Manhattan by the Hudson River and the Staten Island Ferry route. Even though about 1/3 of the district is in Manhattan, that portion voted more than 80% for Obama so it makes the district Democratic overall. Staten Island barely voted for McCain. McMahon should win easily. Status is Safe Democratic.

14th District Caroline Maloney (D) Upper East Side vs. Jerrold Nadler (D) Upper West Side

Vote totals: Obama 234,406 80%, McCain 56,462 19%

Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 73% White

Current percentages: Obama 78% McCain 21% Change: Obama +5  

Population: 700,489

Important areas: Queens, Manhattan, Upper West Side, Upper East Side and Astoria. This district loses some minority majority areas in Queens but is kept contiguous with the Queens portion by the Queensboro Bridge and the East River. I gave the district the Upper West Side with Nadler’s home but since most of his current district is in the 8th, I expect him to move there and run in it. Maloney should be safe from any challenge. Status is Safe Democratic.

15th District Charlie Rangel (D) Harlem

Vote totals: Obama 220,118 92%, McCain 18,510 7%

Demographics: 36% African American, 42% Hispanic and 17% White.

Current percentages: Obama 93% McCain 6% Change: Obama -2                          

Population: 700,237

Important areas: Manhattan, Bronx, Hamilton Heights, Harlem and Woodlawn Heights. I made the district more African American by adding in Woodlawn Heights and removing heavily Hispanic Washington Heights. The Triborough Bridge connects the small slice of Queens. Rangel should retire soon and I wanted to make it easier for an African American to replace him. Hispanics should soon cast more votes in the Democratic primary here but right now, African Americans probably make up the majority. Status is Safe Democratic.

16th District Jose Serrano (D) South Bronx

Vote totals: Obama 157,529 94%, McCain 10,205 5% Demographics: 26% African American, 63% Hispanic and 6% White.

Current percentages: Obama 95% McCain 5%Change: Obama -1

Population: 700,237

Important areas: Bronx, South Bronx, University Heights, Mt. Hope and Yankee Stadium! Serrano’s district shifts west a bit to pick up Washington Heights and a few other primarily Hispanic neighborhoods from the 15th. Besides these adjustments, the district remains mostly the same, heavily Hispanic and Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

Westchester

17th District Eliot Engel (D) Riverdale

Vote totals: Obama 169,832 61%, McCain 104,965 38%

Demographics: 24% African American, 12% Hispanic and 58% White.

Current percentages: Obama 73% McCain 26% Change: Obama -24

Population: 700,317

Important areas: Bronx, Westchester County, Rockland County, Orange County, Wakefield, Mt. Vernon, and Yonkers. Engel’s district adds all of Rockland County where Obama won 53% of the vote and it adds parts of Orange County that lean Republican (Orange County in 2008 was not colored orange, Obama won it by a few points.) I had to take out parts of the Bronx for population purposes. Overall, I reduced Obama’s percentage from 73% to 61%. This is still a safe enough district for Engel so he should have no trouble with reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

18th District Nita Lowey (D) Harrison

Vote totals: Obama 187,681 61%, McCain 116,591 38%

Demographics: 10% African American, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 68% White

Current percentages: Obama 62% McCain 38%

Change: Obama -1

Population: 698,674

Important areas: Westchester County, Yonkers, New Rochelle and White Plains. I removed all of Rockland County, pushed the district to the Putnam County border and removed some Democratic precincts along the river. Lowey’s district is a few points less Democratic but she should have no problem winning reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

19th District John Hall (D) Dover

Vote totals: Obama 164,634 55%, McCain 134,119 44%

Demographics: 8% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +8

Population: 700,453

Important areas: Westchester County, Putnam County, Orange County, Dutchess County, Newburgh, Poughkeepsie and Middletown. Hall keeps his home in the district but it shifts north a bit. It loses southern Orange County while picking up Democratic Newburgh and Poughkeepsie. I also extended a finger into southern Westchester County to pick up Democratic areas there. These changes shift the district a few points to the left. Hall could have a tough race with a strong challenge but for now, he looks very safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

Upstate

East Upstate

Western Upstate

20th District Scott Murphy (D) Glen Falls

Vote totals: Obama 176,409 54%, McCain 146,305 45%

Demographics: 91% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +6

Population: 700,742

Important areas: Dutchess County, Columbia County, Renneslar County, Schenectady County, Saratoga County, Washington County, Warren County, Essex County, Clinton County, Schenectady, Troy and Saratoga Springs. Jim Tedisco (R) ran against Scott Murphy for this seat and lost by a few hundred votes. Since Tedisco is from Saratoga County, I removed all the Republicans parts of it. Due to population growth, I needed to move the district north into Clinton County for population purposes but since Clinton County is Democratic, this helps strengthen the district. Adding Schenectady while removing Republican parts of Delaware County helped make this district safer. Murphy is a freshman in Congress so a strong challenge can still unseat him but he is safer now. Status is Likely Democratic.

21st District Paul Tonko (D) Amsterdam

Vote totals: Obama 180,169 55%, McCain 144,547 44%

Demographics: 5% African American, 90% White

Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 40% Change: Obama -6

Population: 700,462

Important areas: Albany County, Schohane County, Otsego County, Herkimer County, Fulton County, Montgomery County, Saratoga County, Albany. The 21st district grows more Republican by losing Schenectady and Troy. I added Otsego and Herkimer Counties. Otsego is marginal but Herkimer is heavily Republican. These changes drop Obama’s percentage from the high 50’s to 54%. Tonko is also new but since he has heavily Democratic Albany in his district, it should protect him unless he faces a very strong challenge. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

22nd District Maurice Hinchey (D) Hurley vs. Eric Massa (D) Corning

Vote totals: Obama 172,318 54%, McCain 142,676 45%

Demographics: 89% White

Current percentages: Obama 59% McCain 39% Change: Obama -11

Population: 698,990

Important areas: Ulster County, Orange County, Sullivan County, Delaware County, Broome County, Tioga County, Tompkins County, Chemung County, Steuban County, Kingston and Binghamton. I weakened Hinchey to protect other Democrats. I removed heavily Democratic Ithaca in Tompkins County while adding some rural territory nearby that leans Republican. Hinchey retains his home and it should be hard for a Republican challenger to unseat him since he is entrenched here. I slipped in Eric Massa’s home in Corning but since I placed almost no other territory here currently in Massa’s district, Hinchey should win a primary against Massa who was elected in 2008. Status is Safe Democratic.

23rd District Bill Owens (D) Plattsburgh

Vote totals: Obama 154,639 54%, McCain 124,322 44%

Demographics: 92% White

Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 47% Change: Obama +5

Population: 698,458

Important areas: Clinton County, Franklin County, St. Lawrence County, Hamilton County, Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, Onondaga County, Syracuse and Watertown. Owens is the newest Democrat in Congress due to his upset victory here over Conservative Doug Hoffman in a special election last November. To protect Owens, I removed all of Oneida County which leans Republican while adding about 1/3 of heavily Democratic Syracuse. These changes bolster Obama’s performance by five points and although they do not completely protect Owens, he should be safe enough. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

24th District Michael Arcuri (D) Utica

Vote totals: Obama 166,172 54%, McCain 134,215 44%

Demographics: 6% African American, 88% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +7

Population: 698,920

Important areas: Onondaga County, Oneida County, Madison County, Chenango County, Otsego County, Delaware County, Cortland County, Tompkins County, Ithaca, Syracuse and Rome (not in Italy.) Arcuri won only 51%-49% when I thought he would have no trouble winning reelection. He was elected only in 2006 so he needs time to get entrenched. I helped protect Arcuri by removing some rural counties that Obama or McCain barely won. The district used to be primarily rural. I added in Cornell University in heavily Democratic Ithaca and I added in heavily Democratic parts of Syracuse too. These changes make Obama’s margin seven points larger than the current district. If the district did not include Oneida County, Obama’s performance would be higher. Since Arcuri lives in Oneida County, he is pretty popular there so he needed to worry about candidates pilling up margins in the rural counties. Not anymore, Arcuri looks safe here. Status is Safe Democratic.

25th District Dan Maffei (D) Dewitt

Vote totals: Obama 186,077 57%, McCain 136,799 42%

Demographics: 11% African American, 5% Hispanic, and 82% White

Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43% Change: Obama +2

Population: 697,859

Important areas: Onondaga County, Cayuga County, Seneca County, Ontario County, Yates County, Wayne County, Monroe County, Rochester and Syracuse. Maffei won this district easily in 2008 so his district did not much strengthening. I removed most of Syracuse to protect the 23rd and 24th districts but I had to extend the 25th through Syracuse to connect to Dewitt, Maffei’s home. I added in the rural counties such as Cayuga, Seneca, Ontario and Yates so other districts would not hold them. Those counties are marginal. Maffei should have no trouble winning under the new lines because I added in most of heavily Democratic Rochester. Maffei should have no complaints. Status is Safe Democratic

Buffalo/Rochester area



26th District Chris Lee (R) Clarence

Vote totals: Obama 136,910 42%, McCain 183,059 56%

Demographics: 94% White

Current percentages: Obama 46% McCain 52% Change: Obama -8

Population: 698,474

Important areas: Erie County, Cattaraugus County, Niagara County, Genesee County, Wyoming County, Livingston County, Monroe County, Allegany County, Steuban County, Schuyler County, Batavia and Hornell. I wanted to make Lee very safe so he could take away areas that could weaken Democratic incumbents. I removed some Democratic Buffalo suburbs in Erie County while adding in Republican suburbs in Erie County. I removed a few voting districts in Monroe County too. The new territory I added was rural counties along the Pennsylvania border that are currently in the 29th district. These changes make Lee safer and hopefully the only Republican in the New York Congressional delegation. Status is Safe Republican.

27th District Brian Higgins (D) South Buffalo District

Vote totals: Obama 187,563 55%, McCain 145,799 43%

Demographics: 7% African American, 87% White

Current percentages: Obama 54% McCain 44% Change: Obama +2

Population: 698,914

Important areas: Chautauqua County, Erie County, Buffalo and Tonawanda. Higgins seems safe in his district but to strengthen him, I removed Republican precincts in eastern Erie County to put them in the 26th district. I added suburban territory that leans Democratic around Tonawanda. These changes increase Obama’s performance just a bit and protect Higgins who appears to be popular in this district. Status is Safe Democratic.

28th District Louise Slaughter (D) Fairport

Vote totals: Obama 193,491 61%, McCain 119,737 38%

Demographics: 15% African American and 76% White

Current percentages: Obama 69% McCain 30% Change: Obama -16

Population: 698.682

Important areas: Erie County, Niagara County, Orleans County, Monroe County, Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Rochester. To strengthen the 25th and 27th districts, I made the 28th much more Republican. I removed most of Rochester while adding marginal suburban areas currently in the 26th and the 29th districts. Even though Obama’s performance drops by 16 points, this is still the most Democratic district in Upstate New York. Status is Safe Democratic

My entry in the redistricting contest. I manage to create one new Democratic district and eliminate both Republicans, while making most of the vulnerable Democrats safer.  Enjoy.

1. (Bishop) East Suffolk same as the current district.

Pop. 706,721. 84%W, 4% Bl,  2% Hisp   Obama 52%, McCain 48%

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 48 (same breakdown)

Virtually identical to the existing district; in fact, the only one where I had to remove blocs due to expanded population.

2. (Israel) West Suffolk.

Pop 706,650  72%W, 10%Bl, 14% Hisp   Obama 55%, McCain 45%

Current District:  Obama 56; McCain 43 (down 1 point)

Adds some South Suffolk blocs; removes the Nassau blocs. More compact and contiguous than the old 2nd, and safe for Israel.  I had wanted to push this and the 1st deeper into the current 3rd, but it could not be comfortably done.

3. ( Lowey, King. Advantage Lowey). East edge of Nassau;  Oyster Bay and North Shore; Great Neck; Throgs Neck; Long Island Sound; Pelham; New Rochelle; Larchmont; Rye; Harrison; White Plains.

Pop 702,996 79% W, 4%Bl, 11% Hisp Obama 54%, McCain 45%

Current District: None

Here’s where I start to get creative. If  we must lose one district, I want it to be the one held by “King Peter”in the current 3rd.  However, way out on Long Island like that, contiguous to only a few districts, none of which can afford more Republicans, that’s hard to do.  Plus, the upstate districts lost more population than Long Island, and if we started on the other end of the state and worked east, the districts would start to look really unfamiliar by the time we got to Westchester (see what I had to do with Hinchey’s district, for example. That one made it all the way to Westchester!)  

The solution is to bring in Nita Lowey from Westchester across the Sound.  Lowey is a suburban representative who ought to be a good fit for the Long Island suburbs.  The new 3rd is about 1/3 Lowey’s old district, 1/3 of the old 3rd (the north shore is the most liberal part of King’s existing district), and 1/3 other parts of the North Shore, the Westchester shore, and the Bronx shore taken from the Ackerman and Crowley districts, all of which should be more friendly to Lowey than to King.  Back in the 1980s, when Long Island was considered a conservative Republican stronghold, a solid North Shore district was comfortably occupied by Democrat Robert Mrazek. Also, this model of the 3rd does go as far west as the Throgs Neck Bridge–though only the north side of it.

4. (McCarthy) South Nassau, including Mineola, Freeport, Levittown, most of the south shore.

Pop 699,475  67% W, 15%Bl, 12% Hisp Obama 56%, McCain 43%

Current District:  Obama 58; McCain 41  (down 2 points, still safe)

This one is measured to be about 2/3 within the existing 4th and 1/3 in the 3rd. It’s not in “King Peter”s residential zone, but it does have most of his base. It lops off part of the top of the old 4th to give the Weiner and Ackerman districts room to snake in.   Slightly less Democratic, but still safe for McCarthy.

5. (Ackerman) North Queens: Elmhurst, Murray Hill, Littleneck and east into Nassau, then Southward into the current 3rd to Hicksville.

Pop 702,921 49% W, 5%Bl, 22% Asian, 22% Hisp Obama 59%, McCain 40%

Current District:  Obama 63; McCain 36 (down 4 points. As it should be; 63 is overkill)

A little more snakelike and gerrymandered than the current 5th, but still recognizably and safely Ackerman’s.

6.  (Meeks) Jamaica.

Pop 701,408  15% W, 51%Bl, 17% Hisp Obama 88%, McCain 12%

Current District:  Obama 89; McCain 11 (down 1 point)

It would have been much easier to screw “King Peter” and protect McCarthy and Weiner if I had been allowed to tinker with this district. But it was VRA-protected and surrounded by lily-white communities, and so I left it pretty much as is. You’ll notice I did the same with all the other majority-minority districts, all of which look pretty much the same as the old versions. You’ll also notice these districts are the ones most likely to skirt the lower edge of the minimum population requirements. I didn’t want to have to stuff more Democrats into districts that regularly give 70%+ Democratic victories.  Good thing disproportionate population increases reduced the need to expand them.

7. (Crowley) East Bronx, LaGuardia airport, Woodside, and east into Queens, short of Nassau

Pop 694,523  28% W, 16%Bl, 37% Hisp Obama 78%, McCain 21%

Current District:  Obama 79; McCain 20 (down 1 point)

Messy, but safely Democratic.

8. (Nadler) West side of Manhattan  (Upper West, Chelsea, Greenwich, Financial District) plus west Staten Island, made contiguous by the unbroken Jersey shore and by the Staten Island Ferry route.

Pop 694,080  72% W,  7 %Bl, 12% Hisp Obama 72%, McCain 27%

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 26 (down 2 points that are needed elsewhere)

I’ve wanted for a long time to dilute GOP influence in Staten Island by dividing it. Nadler’s west side district is blue enough to absorb it easily, and it’s no more awkward than the existing district that goes into Brooklyn.

9. (Weiner) Centered in Weiner’s native Forest Hills; snakes southwest to Lindenwood, Georgetown, Gravesend, Breezy Point; and east to Utopia, Oakland Gardens, Glen Oaks and Central Nassau.

Pop 702,016  67% W,  3%Bl, 14% Hisp Obama 51%, McCain 49%

Current District:  Obama 55; McCain 44 (down 4 points)

Of all districts in this entry, this one satisfies me the least. It takes the biggest and most dangerous hit. Surrounded by the VRA-protected 6th, 10th, and 12th  , that gave Obama 70% or better, I had to struggle to get Weiner to a 51% district. There were some South Brooklyn districts that went for McCAIN  90%, and most of them went into the new 9th, the cost of keeping four majority-minority districts in the area and making the 13th safer.  It’s a bummer.  The possible saving grace is that the conservatives here are divided between orthodox Jews and racist Archie Bunker prototypes, and it’s hard to imagine both groups voting for a single candidate locally.  Also, Weiner is popular enough to survive and thrive here; still,  there are few excuses for forcing a district this marginal into New York City. If other entries make both this and the 13th  more blue-leaning, I’ll be impressed.

10.  (Towns) East NY; Bedford-Stuyvesant. Mostly unchanged from the existing Towns district.

Pop 693,765  18% W, 58%Bl, 17% Hisp Obama 90%, McCain 10%

Current District:  Obama 91; McCain 9 (down 1 point)

11. (Clarke) Crown Heights, Flatbush. Mostly unchanged from the existing Clarke district.

Pop 694,130  21% W, 60%Bl, 12% Hisp Obama 91%, McCain 9%

Current District:  Obama 91; McCain 9  (unchanged)

12. (Velasquez) Lower east side; Williamsburg; Bushwick, Park Slope; West coast of Brooklyn. Virtually no different from the old 12th. In fact, I had a hard time moving even one bloc without going beneath the 46% Hispanic threshold.

Pop 705,533  24% W, 9%Bl, 17% Asian, 47% Hisp Obama 86%, McCain 14%

Current District:  Obama 86; McCain 13 (almost unchanged)

13.  (McMahon) East Staten Island; Bensonhurst; Coney Island;  Sunset Park; Sheepshead Bay.

Pop 706,767  65% W, 6%Bl,  14% Asian, 12% Hisp Obama 52%, McCain 47%

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 51 (UP three badly needed points, converting a McCain district to Obama)

I thought I was going to easily make the 13th more Democratic by dividing Staten Island with the 8th. I learned that a lot of the GOP leanings of the 13th came from the Brooklyn part of the district and that a lot of the neighboring parts of the old 8th and 9th had been put there to safely disperse Republicans in safe Dem districts. I needed to reach as far as I did from South Brooklyn and fill the population to the limit to get there, but the proposed 13th now has a Democratic lean.

I was almost sorry to have a Staten Island Democrat to protect. I had started out watning to bisect SI into the 8th and 14th.

14. (Maloney) East Manhattan from Stuyvesant Town to Yorkville; Roosevelt Island; Astoria.  Not much different from the existing 14th.

Pop 698,199 65% W, 6%Bl, 11% Asian, 15% Hisp Obama 78%, McCain 21%

Current District:  Obama 78; McCain 21 (unchanged)

15. (Rangel). Upper Manhattan. Harlen, Spanish Harlem, Wash. Hts, Southern edge of the Bronx at Port Morris.  Virtually no different from the old 15th.

Pop 694,620  16% W, 30%Bl, 49% Hisp Obama 93%, McCain 6%

Current District:  Obama 93; McCain 6 (unchanged)

16. (Serrano)  South Bronx. Almost unchanged from the old 16th, and very compact.

Pop 695,862  3% W, 31%Bl, 63% Hisp Obama 95%, McCain 5%

Current District:  Obama 95; McCain 5 (unchanged. I wonder who here voted for McCain?)

17. (Engel) North Bronx; Yonkers; Mt. Vernon; west edge of Westchester to Tarrytown; south Rockland County.

Pop 695,193  42% W, 29%Bl, 21% Hisp Obama 71%, McCain 28%

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 28 (almost unchanged)

A little bluer due to packing in more Democrats from southern Westchester. North border follows the existing 17th exactly.

18. (Massa)  Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allagheny, Steuben, Chemung, Tioga, Broome, Schuyler, southwest part of Ontario.

Pop 706,906  93% W, 2%Bl, 2% Hisp Obama 48%, McCain 51%

Current District:  Obama 48; McCain 51 (unchanged)

I called the Southern Tier district the 18th for continuity’s sake. It might as well be called the 28th and go at the end; however, as the 18th, the only incumbent Democrats whose district numbers are changed are Lowey, Massa and Slaughter.

This is the only district in this redistricting plan that went for McCain (48-51); with the addition of Jamestown on the west and Binghamton on the east, it ought to be a little less red than before.  Without the Monroe County suburbs, though, it’s a wash. Well, at least I did not make it WORSE, even while I completely eliminated the GOP-heavy district next door.

19. (Hall) Southeast  Dutchess, Putnam, East Westchester (North Salem, Chappaqua, Brewster).  

Pop 700,295  76% W, 8%Bl, 11% Hisp Obama 55%, McCain 44%

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48 (UP 4 needed points)

More compact and Democratic than the old 22nd, this one should make the potentially vulnerable Hall safe. I was tempted to make the district more Westchester-centric, but Hall resides in the part of Dutchess that had to be included.

20. (Murphy) Upper Dutchess, Columbia Rensselaer, Warren, Washington, Saratoga, Essex

Pop 695,099  91% W, 4%Bl, 2% Hisp Obama 54%, McCain 45%

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48  (UP 3 needed points)

This was the easiest to make Dem friendly of all the marginal newly Dem districts upstate.  Poughkeepsie and the Albany suburbs of Rensselaer had been artificially removed to make the district Republican. Put them back, and the natural things to lop off are the Catskill tail at the bottom of the old 20th. The district is more compact and contiguous, and more Democratic. What could be better?

21. (Tonko)  Montgomery, Albany, Schoharie,Greene, Delaware, Sullivan, parts of Ulster, Orange and Herkimer.  

Pop 701,290  84% W, 7%Bl, 6% Hisp Obama 56%, McCain 42%

Current District:  Obama 58; McCain 40 (down 2 unneeded points)

The price of shoring up the 20th and 23rd was to make the Tonko district slightly   less safe by adding in a lot of conservative rural territory. But it’s still handily blue.

22.    (Hinchey)  Scarsdale, Peekskill, parts of Rockland, Orange and Ulster.

Pop 702,909  77% W, 7%Bl, 11% Hisp Obama 57%, McCain 42%

Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39 (down 2 unneeded points)

This one changed a lot. This Borscht Belt district traditionally had Binghamton and Ithaca on the west and stretched to Poughkeepsie with as little in between as they could get away with. I put Binghamton and Ithaca in other districts that needed more Democrats, and compensated by extending a tail of the 22nd deep into Westchester, between the 17th and the 19th. The extent to north Ulster is due to Hinchey’s home base, near Woodstock.

23.    (Owens) Clinton, Franklin, Essex, Schenectady, Fulton, Hamilton, St Lawrence, Lewis, Jefferson, most of Oswego, West part of Saratoga.

Pop 707,028 92% W, 3%Bl,  2% Hisp Obama 52%, McCain 46%

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 47 (up 1/2)

Made just a little more Dem friendly. The primary change was the addition of Schenectady and the removal of some conservative western land.

24. (Arcuri) Central New York State: Oneida, Cortland, Madison, Otsego, Chenango, Tompkins, Schuyler, Yates, North-central part of Ontario, southwest part of Herkimer

Pop 699,841  92% W, 3%Bl,  2% Hisp Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48 (up 1 point, just like the 23rd.)

This district is made marginally safer for Arcuri, mainly due to the addition of Ithaca.

25. (Maffei)  Onondanga (Syracuse),  Cayuga, Seneca, Eastern part of Wayne and Ontario

Pop 701,716  87% W, 7%Bl,  2% Hisp Obama 57%, McCain 41%

Current District:  Obama 56; McCain 43 (up 2 points)

Slightly more safe for Maffei. The main change was taking the district away from Monroe County and adding some rural blocs. you’d think that would make it more Republican, but no.

26. (Slaughter) Rochester and suburbs, plus Livingston County and West edge of Wayne.

Pop 703,921 78% W, 13%Bl,  5% Hisp Obama 58%, McCain 40%

Current District:  Obama 69; McCain 30 (looks like a big dip, until you consider that we’re eliminating the pro-GOP 26th and making two good Dem districts)

Slaughter represented an area like this in the 1990s, and shouldn’t have any trouble keeping this one.  The current 28th was one of the big mistakes of the 2001 redistricting, protecting a Republican incumbent at the expense of a safe blue district. See District 28, below, for more. With Lee an insignificant minority party Freshman and the redistricting controlled by Democrats, hopefully they won’t make that mistake again.  Slaughter still has a 58% Dem district to work in here.

27. (Higgins, Lee. Strong advantage to Higgins) Entirely within Erie County; includes all of Erie except for the Northwestern part, most of which is in the current 28th.  Eliminates Chautauqua County.

Pop 695,556  83% W, 11%Bl,  3% Hisp Obama 56%, McCain 43%

Current District:  Obama 54; McCain 44  (up 2 points)

Lee could challenge Higgins here or try to move to the new 28th. Either way, he’d have a hard time holding on. This district is more partisanly Dem than the one Higgins now wins in.

28. (no incumbent) Northwest Erie/Tonawanda; all of Niagra, Genesee, Wyoming counties; NW Monroe.

Pop 694,502  87% W, 8%Bl,  2% Hisp Obama 52%, McCain 47%

Current District:  Obama 69; McCain 30  (I’m counting the current 28th as “current” in both this district and Slaughter’s proposed 26th, for lack of an alternative. This district has most of the territory; the proposed 26th has the incumbent; and the goal was the total breakup of the existing 26th, which has no counterpart in this proposal).

This district attempts to eliminate the other GOP-held district in NY and replace it with one approximating the district held by John LaFalce through the 1990s. The new 26th, 27th and 28th try to recreate what the three districts would look like if in 2001 they had eliminated the district now held by Lee instead of the LaFalce district.

OVERALL RESULT: All 28 districts are swing or better, all definitely winnable by Democrats, and all start out with an incumbent Democrat. Big winners include McMahon, Murphy, Maffei, and the Democrat who runs in the new 28th.  Owens and Arcuri are marginally better, and Massa is no worse off. Weiner is the only Democrat who is worse off enough to notice, and even he is still slightly blue leaning, in the middle of the city, where he’ll have a LOT of support. Both incumbent Republicans, meanwhile,  are…yes, I think “toast” is the operative word.

What do you think?

I decided to do a partisan gerrymander for the contest which pretty much locks in 26 Democrats and 2 Republicans for the state.  All 26 Democratic seats were won by Obama with at least 58% of the vote, and McCain got at most 41%.  This is, in effect, making each Democratic district at least a “+10 D” seat since Obama beats McCain by at least a 17 point margin for each of the 26 seats, while Obama beat McCain nationally by about 7 points, and essentially assures that a Democrat will represent each of the 26 seats in Congress.

The remaining two seats are ceded to the GOP.  One is NY-26 in western New York, and the other is a reconfigured NY-24 in the eastern part of upstate.  It was sad to sacrifice Michael Arcuri in this manner, but it makes all the neighboring seats safe and then some, by spreading more Democrats outward to other seats.  It’s nothing personal against Arcuri; it was just easiest to do it this way for me geographically, and since Arcuri had a hard time at reelection in 2008, he may not be that safe in future elections anyhow.

Despite the highly gerrymandered lines, each district strives to maintain at least a decent portion of the territory currently in the district (including, ofcourse, each incumbent’s home).  The notable exceptions are Arcuri’s district (discussed under NY-24 below) and Peter King’s district on Long Island, which is obliterated.  About 26% of King’s district becomes part of NY-2; about 26% becomes part of NY-4; 8% goes to NY-5, and 5% to NY-18.  (The Democratic percentage in NY-2 and NY-4, nevertheless, goes UP to 60% Obama in each district, while remaining above the 60% level in both NY-5 and NY-18).

The largest part of the current NY-3, about 35% (including King’s home in Seaford/Oyster Bay) goes to NY-6, but King would have no chance there, as the district is 50%+ African-American and voted 71% for Obama.  Thus, King’s district is geographically torn into pieces and destroyed.

In the meantime, Eric Massa’s NY-29 in upstate is renamed NY-3 (thanks to MattTX2 for the inspiration from his contest entry !  as well as the inspiration for intertwining upstate districts  in the eastern part of the state with areas in metro NYC.  Btw, as far as I’m concerned, I’m OK if others take parts of my plan to use in their remaps.  I mean, I like the competition of the contest, but one goal for us all is to draw the best map possible for New York and show just what can be done.)

Several technical notes:  

BIG NOTE TO CONTEST JUDGE:  please note that in the drf.xml file I sent you (and reflected on the maps here) I have switched districts 5 and 6 because of the better color differentiation (yellow/green) from neighboring districts on the maps.  So, what’s tagged as “District 5” in the program is really District 6 … and vice versa.

I decided to have an even stricter population difference than the contest calls for; all my districts vary by no more than 2,000 persons from the ideal population; the contest rules accept up to around 7,000.  However, I have 1,760 persons unaccounted for in my plan.  Yes, I know to use the “next unassigned” button, but the program just can’t seem to find the missing geographical bits (I was successful at finding a bunch of missing precincts through “unassigned”, but with the last 1,760 persons, it just points to areas already designated for a specific district).  Anyhow, the missing area(s) voted 84% for Obama, so perhaps one of my districts could be even more Democratic than what’s in this plan ? oh well !)

Here’s my plan:

MAPS:

District 1:

Incumbent: Timothy Bishop

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 41

Population: 701,005

Demographics: white 70; black 11; native am. 0; asian 2;  hispanic 15; other 2

Encompasses the eastern half of Long Island.  Entire district is confined to Suffolk Co., mostly the eastern portion but with some very Democratic areas in western Suffolk added (parts of Islip and Babylon) to bring up the Democratic percentage.

District 2:  

Incumbent: Steve Israel

Current District:  Obama 56; McCain 43

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 40

Population: 701,072

Demographics: white 67; black 15; native am. 0; asian 3; Hispanic 12; other 2

The new district is centered on western Suffolk Co. and eastern Nassau Co., including most of Huntington, and parts of Babylon, Islip, Oyster Bay and Hempstead.  The Democratic percentage goes up with the addition of very Democratic areas in Hempstead.

District 3 (Old 29):

Incumbent: Eric Massa

Current District:  Obama 48; McCain 51

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Population: 700,442

Demographics: white 87; black 8; native am. 0; asian 2; hispanic 2; other 1

The current NY-29 is renamed NY-3.  The new district encompasses parts of Buffalo and Erie Co., then stretches south and east along the Pennsylvania border to include Massa’s home in Corning, and then goes northeast to include the Ithaca area.  Adding Ithaca and parts of Buffalo makes the district a lot more Democratic, and I think including Ithaca is a nice complement for the progressive Massa.

District 4:  

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy

Current District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 40

Population: 701,554

Demographics: white 58; black 11; native am. 0; asian 11; hispanic 15; other 6

The district retains much of the current territory in Nassau, including McCarthy’s home in the Mineola part of North Hempstead, but the borders are made more gerrymandered in order to maintain the current Democratic advantage.  In order to make the district overall even more Democratic than the current version, part of the district is extended into Queens.

District 5:  

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman

Current District:  Obama 63; McCain 36

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 37

Population: 698,427

Demographics: white 43; black 6; native am. 0; asian 22; hispanic 27; other 2

The new district is quite similar to the current one, including parts of Queens and northern Nassau Co. (North Hempstead).  The district is extended eastward a bit, further into northern Nassau (northern part of Oyster Bay), but loses some southern areas in Queens and Nassau.  The partisan breakdown remains very much the same.

District 6:

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks

Current District:  Obama 89; McCain 11

Proposed District:  Obama 71; McCain 29

Population: 701,198

Demographics: white 38; black 50+; native am. 0; asian 1; hispanic 7; other 3

The new NY-6 contains much of the territory of the current NY-6 (Jamaica, St. Albans, etc.), but is reconfigured in a manner to maximize the obliteration of Peter King’s district.  Basically, the most Democratic parts of NY-6 are combined with the most Republican parts of NY-3 (including King’s home base).

Despite the new unorthodox appearance with the district hugging the water in many areas, a person can actually walk from one part of the district to any other part via land or bridges.  You start out in the Queens heart of the district; can walk west into the Brooklyn extension or take the Cross Bay Blvd. south over Jamaica Bay to the Rockaway area (Meeks home is in Far Rockaway); then go east along the Atlantic shore, hop over another bridge to Long Beach (the district is very narrow here, btw, only one precinct deep hugging the ocean); from there you can hop over several more bridges and islands to Jones Beach Island.  Then, you can go in either of two directions.  1.) Go further east towards Oak Beach, and can then go over the Robert Moses Causeway either south to Fire Island or north to the Long Island mainland around West Islip where part of the district continues along the shore back towards Amityville, or 2.) go north from Jones Beach Island across Wantagh State Parkway to the mainland and Seaford/Oyster Bay — what today is the heart of NY-3 and Peter King’s base in Nassau.

District 7:  

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley

Current District:  Obama 79; McCain 20

Proposed District:  Obama 73; McCain 27

Population: 699,421

Demographics: white 51; black 10; native am. 0; asian 9; hispanic 26; other 4

Contains parts of Queens (Astoria, part of Woodside), Brooklyn (Greenpoint, part of Williamsburg) and parts of the Bronx and Manhattan.  All areas are connected by land or bridges – specifically, the series of highways and bridges on Randalls Island connects the Bronx, Manhattan and Queens parts of the district which are across water from each other.  The Democratic percentage goes down somewhat, but the district remains very safely Democratic.

District 8:  

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 26

Proposed District:  Obama 73; McCain 26

Population: 700,314

Demographics: white 59; black 6; native am. 0; asian 17; hispanic 14; other 4

The new district contains territory same as or similar to the current district – a combination of very progressive areas in Manhattan (Nadler’s home base on the Upper West Side, Chelsea, Tribeca) and relatively more conservative  parts of Brooklyn (areas like Bensonhurst and Bay Ridge).  The Brooklyn Bridge connects the Manhattan and Brooklyn parts of the district.  The partisan breakdown does not change much.

District 9:  

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner

Current District:  Obama 55; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 40

Population: 698,687

Demographics: white 55; black 10; native am. 0; asian 15; hispanic 16; other 5

The new NY-9 contains parts of Queens (including Weiner’s home in Forest Hills), Brooklyn, and Nassau Co.  The Democratic percentage goes up, as the district no longer includes most of the Orthodox Jewish conservative parts of Brooklyn.

District 10:  

Incumbent: Edolphus Towns

Current District:  Obama 91; McCain 9

Proposed District:  Obama 80; McCain 19

Population: 700,702

Demographics: white 32; black 50+; native am. 0; asian 4; hispanic 11; other 3

The new Brooklyn-based district is largely similar to the current one, and includes areas like Bedford-Suyvesant, parts of Canarsie and East New York. The Democratic percentage goes down as the new district expands to include more conservative parts of Brooklyn (including Orthodox Jewish areas), and into more GOP-friendly territory on the Rockaway peninsula in Queens.

District 11:  

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke

Current District:  Obama 91; McCain 9

Proposed District:  Obama 76; McCain 24

Population: 701,845

Demographics: white 33; black 50+; native am. 0; asian 4; hispanic 9; other 3

Similar situation to NY-10 above; Brooklyn-based district; newly added Orthodox Jewish areas make the Democratic percentage go down, but at 76% Obama, it’s a very safe Democratic seat.  The new district includes African-American majority areas east of Prospect Park, the eastern part of Flatbush and Brownsville, then extends to the Orthodox areas around Ocean Parkway and Borough Park, and goes south all the way south to Brighton Beach.

District 12:  

Incumbent: Nydia Velázquez

Current District:  Obama 86; McCain 13

Proposed District:  Obama 85; McCain 15

Population: 698,381

Demographics: white 20; black 12; native am. 0; asian 14; hispanic 50+; other 4

The new district is concentrated along the Brooklyn-Queens border.  It expands north further into Queens, and also goes across Manhattan Bridge from Brooklyn to include part of the Lower East Side of Manhattan. The Hispanic percentage increases from the current 48% to 50%+.

District 13:

Incumbent: Michael McMahon

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 51

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 39

Population: 699,033

Demographics: white 63; black 9; native am. 0; asian 6; hispanic 20; other 2

The new NY-13 includes all of Staten Island.  It then goes over the Verrazano Bridge to include some of the most Democratic (though mostly non-minority) areas in Brooklyn including parts of Park Slope, Brooklyn Heights and Sunset Park.  No inclusion of any part of Manhattan was necessary to increase the Democratic percentage significantly (again, thanks to MattTX22 for the inspiration !).

District 14:  

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney

Current District:  Obama 78; McCain 21

Proposed District:  Obama 81; McCain 18

Population: 701,165

Demographics: white 70; black 4; native am. 0; asian 15; hispanic 9; other 2

The new district is now confined entirely to Manhattan, as the Queens areas are taken out.  The district includes areas like the Upper East Side, Midtown and the East Village.  It becomes marginally even more Democratic than the current progressive stronghold.

District 15:  

Incumbent: Charles Rangel

Current District:  Obama 93; McCain 6

Proposed District:  Obama 79; McCain 20

Population: 699,529

Demographics: white 29; black 26; native am. 0; asian 3; hispanic 40; other 2

The new district includes Harlem and other areas in northern Manhattan.  It then follows Broadway out into the Bronx, and then Highway 87 up through Yonkers, and into Rockland Co.  The district remains minority-majority (71%) though, as with the current district, no racial/ethnic group has a clear majority by itself.

District 16:  

Incumbent: José Serrano

Current District:  Obama 95; McCain 5

Proposed District:  Obama 93; McCain 7

Population: 700,289

Demographics: white 5; black 30; native am. 0; asian 2; hispanic 60; other 2

Remains similar to the current district, including much of the South Bronx and central parts of the Bronx around the zoo.  The Hispanic percentage remains at the 60% level required by the contest rules.

District 17:

Incumbent: Eliot Engel

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 36

Population: 699,291

Demographics: white 65; black 10; native am. 0; asian 3; hispanic 20; other 2

The new district includes much of the same territory in the Bronx (including Engel’s home in Riverdale), and Westchester and Rockland Counties, but also expands north into more conservative areas upstate (parts of Orange, Sullivan, Delaware and Broome Counties) as well as south into more progressive areas on the west side of Manhattan.  In effect, the new district forms most of New York’s border with New Jersey.  The district becomes somewhat less Democratic, but is still very safe.

District 18:  

Incumbent: Nita Lowey

Current District:  Obama 62; McCain 38

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 39

Population: 700,775

Demographics: white 62; black 20; native am. 0; asian 3; hispanic 13; other 2

NY-18 remains very similar in partisan preference to the current district, but the borders change rather dramatically.  Many parts of Westchester are still there (including Lowey’s home in Harrison, Rye and parts of New Rochelle), but the new district also includes a part of the northern Bronx and jumps across Long Island Sound to encompass northern parts of Long Island – most of Glen Cove, and areas east along the shore into Suffolk Co. (Smithtown and part of Brookhaven).  I figured that Lowey might be OK with such a district, since back in the 1990’s she represented a district that also combined rather disparate areas (parts of Westchester combined with parts of the Bronx and Queens).  Sorry, there’s no existing bridge to connect the two major parts of the new district (Westchester and Long Island) but there is a proposal to have a bridge or tunnel built (from Rye to Glen Cove and/or Oyster Bay) ! — http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L…

District 19:  

Incumbent: John Hall

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 40

Population: 701,088

Demographics: white 60; black 11; native am.0; asian 4; hispanic 23; other 2

The new NY-19 becomes more Democratic as it’s extended southward towards NYC.  The district runs from Hall’s home in Dover in the very northern part of the district, through Dutchess, Putnam and Westchester Counties (including parts of White Plains and New Rochelle) and then into a part of the northern Bronx.  Inevitably the Democratic percentage goes up to levels where just about any Democrat should be safe.

District 20:  

Incumbent: Scott Murphy

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Population: 698,825

Demographics: white 75; black 13; native am. 0; asian 3; hispanic 7; other 2

In a fashion very similar to NY-19 described above, the NY-20 starts near Murphy’s home in Glens Falls, then follows the Hudson Valley south towards NYC, stopping just short of actually entering the city, but still including very Democratic Mount Vernon, just over the NYC line in Westchester.

District 21:  

Incumbent: Paul Tonko

Current District:  Obama 58; McCain 40

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Population: 701,643

Demographics: white 81; black 7; native am. 0; asian 2; hispanic 8; other 2

The new district continues to include a good part of the Albany area, including Tonko’s home in Amsterdam, as well as all of Schenectady and parts of Albany.  It then follows the Hudson Valley south to Peekskill, ending in Westchester and Rockland Counties.  The partisan breakdown remains pretty much the same as the current district.

District 22:  

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey

Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Population: 700,768

Demographics: white 81; black 8; native am. 0; asian 2; hispanic 7; other 2

The new NY-22 is similar in many ways to the current district.  It includes areas from Binghamton and Broome Co. to Hinchey’s home area in Ulster Co. around Hurley and Kingston.  Also included are all of Chemung and Tioga Counties and parts of Chenago, Otsego, Delaware, Sullivan and Orange Counties, as well as Poughkeepsie and Beacon in Dutchess Co.  The Democratic percentage here remains very similar to the current district.

District 23:  

Incumbent: Bill Owens

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Population: 700,802

Demographics: white 91; black 4; native am. 0; asian 1; hispanic 2; other 1

The new district combines the more Democratic parts of the current NY-23 (St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton and most of Essex Co.) with Democratic territory further south around Saratoga Springs and including most of Albany.  Now, either Doug Hoffman or Jim Tedisco could try to run against Owens, but either would have a hard time, as the Democratic percentage goes up significantly.

District 24:  

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 44; McCain 54

Population: 700,042

Demographics: white 94; black 2; native am. 0; asian 1; hispanic 2; other 1

The new district includes a large swath of territory in the eastern part of upstate New York, including all or parts of 19 counties.  Arcuri had a close call during his 2008 re-election bid, so it’s likely he would lose here.  The new NY-24 actually includes much of Arcuri’s current territory (except, notably his home in Utica, which goes into the new NY-25 to make that district more Democratic), but the new partisan breakdown would be too much to handle.  However, not all hope is lost.  Perhaps Doug Hoffman, who lives just outside the borders of the new NY-24, can run here instead and we can have a repeat of NY-23 from this past November !  Most of DeDe Scozzafava’s legislative district is also included here, as is most of the district of State Senator Darrell Aubertine, who perhaps might be the only Democrat who could launch a possibly successful campaign here.

District 25:  

Incumbent: Daniel Maffei

Current District:  Obama 56; McCain 43

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Population: 700,401

Demographics: white 86; black 7; native am. 1; asian 2; hispanic 3; other 2

NY-25 continues to include all of Syracuse and Onondaga Co.  Also included under the new lines is most of Cayuga, Seneca, and Madison Counties, Geneva in Ontario Co., and

Utica in Oneida Co.  The Democratic percentage goes up a bit.  Even though Arcuri’s home in Utica is included here, as well as the counties west of Onondaga which are also currently in NY-24, most of the territory comes out of Maffei’s current NY-25, and the new district is designed with Maffei in mind.

District 26:  

Incumbents: Christopher Lee

Current District:  Obama 46; McCain 52

Proposed District:  Obama 41; McCain 57

Population: 698,894

Demographics: white 95; black 2; native am. 0; asian 1; hispanic 2; other 1

This new district combines much of Lee’s base in Erie Co. with other hyper-Republican areas in the western part of upstate New York – including all or parts of 16 different counties.  The Republican percentage goes up significantly, as the vast majority of GOP precincts in this part of the state are packed into the district

District 27:  

Incumbent: Brian Higgins

Current District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Population: 700,771

Demographics: white 82; black 11; native am. 1; asian 1; hispanic 4; other 1

This Buffalo-based district remains very similar to the current configuration.  The Democratic percentage is made higher with the addition of more of Buffalo.  Also included are Niagara Falls, Tonawanda and areas south of Buffalo in Erie and Chautauqua Counties.

District 28:

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter

Current District:  Obama 69; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Population: 701,210

Demographics: white 77; black 13; native am. 0; asian 3; hispanic 5; other 2

This is one of the few districts that is actually made more compact by this plan.  NY-28 is now almost completely confined to Rochester and Monroe Co. (including the most Democratic parts, ofcourse) with a sliver protruding south to Geneseo  (home of SUNY-Geneseo) in Livingston Co.  The Democratic percentage goes down, but the seat remains safe for a Democrat.

So that’s my plan for New York.  Thanks.

Overall Plan

This entry in the redistricting contest creates 28 Democratic seats and 0 Republican seats. I expect Peter King to lose against Carolyn McCarthy, Chris Lee to lose against Brian Higgins, two Democrats to win in new districts, and one of Scott Murphy or Bill Owens to lose in a primary.

I aimed for compact districts, by and large. Some districts stretch this a little (e.g., 16 and 18), but most are more compact than they used to be. There are no earmuffs like NY-26. There are no water connections over uninhabited islands like NY-08. There’s no connecting through a Con Ed plant to pick up population from Rikers Island like NY-15. Perhaps the only cheap trick was connecting the new Velázquez district through Prospect Park. I even refrained from drawing a thin tendril from Meeks’s district to King’s house.

I was very careful to ensure that a representative actually lives in a district if I assert that I’m drawing a district for him or her. This was rather constraining in several cases. However, I avoided relying on incumbency to keep districts safe, since most of the NY delegation will retire before the next round of maps goes into effect in January 2023.

Along a similar line, I tried to keep Democratic incumbents with at least some of their base of support. For example, since Massa’s current district runs to the Rochester suburbs, I kept it that way rather than giving him some kind of Buffalo-based or Binghamton-based creation. (But when an incumbent, such as Slaughter, has two very distinct bases of support, I only aimed to keep one of them – in Slaughter’s case, it was Rochester rather than Buffalo.) Our incumbents have worked hard to build relationships with local leaders and activists in their current districts, and I’d rather not take that away from them.

All districts are within 100 votes of the target population, except for the three westernmost districts, which are within 200.

Districts by Geography

On Long Island, I’ve reconfigured the two Suffolk districts into an east-west alignment to even out the Democratic advantage between them. In Nassau, I’ve carved King’s district up between Ackerman (whose district is now almost entirely outside the City) and McCarthy, and placed some Republican areas along the NYC border into Meeks’s and Weiner’s districts.

In Queens, Meeks’s district is roughly the same as before, although it now encompasses some Black and Republican areas in Nassau and Brooklyn. Weiner’s district is still based in Forest Hills, but now spills eastward towards Nassau rather than westward into Brooklyn. Lowey’s new district reaches down into Whitestone. Crowley’s district has been consolidated into a compact area of western Queens, and Maloney still has about the same area.

Most of Brooklyn is in VRA districts. Velázquez’s district is heavily Democratic, since I found that I had to use almost entirely Democratic precincts in order to build a 48% Hispanic district. However, I found that it was easy to build solidly Democratic 50% Black districts that had spare capacity to take on Republicans from southern Brooklyn. Therefore, most of southern Brooklyn is divided among the 50% Black VRA districts of Meeks, Towns, and Clarke. Most of the remainder (White Democratic areas like Brooklyn Heights and Park Slope) goes to Nadler, while McMahon and Maloney each represent small areas near the cores of their districts.

Staten Island is in McMahon’s district. If McMahon were to lose in 2010, I would want to split the island across two safely Democratic districts.

Lower Manhattan is split between McMahon (who needs the Democratic votes) and Nadler. Midtown and Uptown up to about 96th are split between Nadler and Maloney, as is roughly the case today. Harlem is still in Rangel’s district.

In the Bronx, Serrano’s district is substantially similar to its current form, although Rangel and Engel both get some of his current Democratic Hispanic votes. The rest is split among two of the districts districts that extend up into Westchester and beyond.

I have divided the northern Metro Area into four districts. Two (Engel and Lowey) have significant Democratic populations from New York City, which allows Engel to take Republican precincts from further Upstate. Hall also extends through Democratic areas nearly to NYC, which allows him to take Republican precincts from further Upstate as well. In particular, Rockland County is carefully divided between Republican precincts (which go to Engel) and Democratic precincts that can be used elsewhere. This allows me to create a fourth new district in the Hudson Valley, which goes from Poughkeepsie down to New City.

I split the Capital Region into two districts, one for Tonko and one for either Murphy or Owens. I judged Owens’s current district too tenuous to maintain in its existing form, so I split the North Country into three parts to attach to Maffei’s, Arcuri’s, and Murphy or Owens’s districts.

In Central New York, Utica and Syracuse each have one district. Binghamton also has a district, which extends eastward to Kingston and Middletown, as it does today. However, I transferred Ithaca from Hinchey to Arcuri in order to solidify Arcuri.

After the 2000 Census, the redistricters drew four districts for Western New York, intending to have them split 3-1 Republican. Their map connected parts of Rochester and Buffalo along a narrow strip to create a packed Democratic district, and then splintered the remaining Democrats among three other districts that they intended for Republicans. However, the four-district region as a whole leans Democratic, so one can create four Democratic districts just by giving each of the four districts an equal number of Democrats. In order to prevent Lee from stealing a district, I’ve put his residence into Higgins’s district and have drawn the incumbent-less district so that it has more Democrats than the other three.

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District Summaries

NY-01

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D) lives in precinct Southampton 6.

Population: 700259

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
75	6	15	2	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 1
Obama %	53.91	51
McCain %	45.56	48

Description: District 1 covers the southern half of Suffolk County, from Brentwood and Central Islip out to the Hamptons. It omits a strip of Republican land along the beach opposite Jones Beach and Fire Islands.

The current NY-01 was drawn to favor a former Republican incumbent, Felix Grucci, and contains all of Republican-leaning eastern Suffolk. In order to equalize the Democratic performance of Districts 1 and 2, I’ve reconfigured them so that each one gets a share of Republican-leaning eastern Suffolk. Thus, a large number of people from the North Fork are moving from NY-01 to NY-02, and a large number of people from the neighborhood of Brentwood and Central Islip are moving from NY-02 to NY-01.

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NY-02

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D) lives in precinct Huntington 100 in Dix Hills.

Population: 700383

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
81	8	7	3	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 2
Obama %	53.36	56
McCain %	46.49	43

Description: District 2 covers the northern half of Suffolk County, from Huntington and Commack, out through Coram to the North Fork.

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NY-03

Incumbents: Carolyn McCarthy (D) lives in precinct North Hempstead 111 in Mineola; Peter King (R) lives in precinct Hempstead 36 in Seaford.

Population: 700386

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
73	11	11	3	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 3	Old 4
Obama %	53.23	47	58
McCain %	46.04	52	41

Description: District 3 covers Democratic southwestern Nassau County (Hempstead, Garden City, Valley Stream, Freeport) along with a strip of Republican territory on the shore well into Suffolk County.

In 2008, King outperformed McCain significantly in his district, while McCarthy outperformed Obama modestly in her district. In an incumbent-incumbent race, I expect McCarthy to be able to win in a D-leaning district with 22% Black+Hispanic, particularly since about 2/3 of the district’s population comes from her old NY-04.

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NY-04

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D) lives in precinct North Hempstead 99 in Roslyn Heights.

Population: 700388

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
79	6	8	6	0	1

63

36

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 3	Old 5
Obama %	52.88	47
McCain %	46.35	52

Description: District 4 covers most of northern and eastern Nassau County, including Levittown, Hicksville, Oyster Bay, and Port Washington.

This coincides in large part with Peter King’s old NY-03. However, it also includes Democratic territory around Plainview and Port Washington, and it excludes the Republican shore. If King moved into this new district, he could conceivably pull an upset if Ackerman has forgotten how to run a competitive race. (This would be similar to how Tim Holden upset George Gekas in central Pennsylvania after they were thrown together in a Republican-leaning district.)

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NY-05

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D) lives in precinct Queens 33-28 in St. Albans.

Population: 700255

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
28	50	11	5	0	5

Presidential Voting

	New	Old
Obama %	78.94	89
McCain %	20.73	11

Description: As a VRA district, District 5 covers the Black areas of eastern Queens, St. Albans and Far Rockaway. It also covers several nearby Republican areas: the Five Towns, Rockaway Peninsula, and (through a connection across the Flatbush Ave. Bridge) Sheepshead Bay and Manhattan Beach.

This district achieves its required 50% Black population in southeastern Queens, and then uses its spare capacity to help achieve two goals: 1) It takes Republican votes from the Five Towns that might otherwise help King. 2) It helps break up the large White Republican sections of southern Brooklyn into irrelevant pieces. Currently, Weiner’s district achieves this second goal, but I prefer to use Weiner to inoculate Republican votes in Queens.

One more thing: For historical reasons, Section 5 of the VRA does not apply to Queens, only to the other three major boroughs. I think it would be a good thing to investigate whether Meeks’s district could be broken up to help out McCarthy and Ackerman against King. Meeks could still win a ~40% Black district handily. But maybe there’s a Section 2 thing that I’m not understanding?

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NY-06

Incumbent: Ed Towns (D) lives in precinct 54-56 in East New York.

Population: 700355

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
30	50	13	4	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 10
Obama %	79.82	91
McCain %	19.9	9

Description: As a VRA district, District 6 covers certain Black areas of Brooklyn (East New York, Brownsville, Canarsie, Flatlands). It also covers some nearby Republican areas around Gravesend and Brighton Beach.

This is another “Blacks and Republicans” district that achieves its required 50% Black population in one area, and then stretches out to White southern Brooklyn to split up the McCain votes there.

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NY-07

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D) lives in precinct Brooklyn 43-78 in Prospect Gardens.

Population: 700389

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
31	50	9	7	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 11
Obama %	79.31	90
McCain %	20.33	9

Description: As a VRA district, District 7 covers certain Black areas of Brooklyn (Bed-Stuy and Crown Heights). It also covers some nearby Republican areas, such as Mapleton and Bensonhurst.

This is another “Blacks and Republicans” district that achieves its required 50% Black population in one area, and then stretches out to White southern Brooklyn to split up the Republican votes there. Currently, Nadler’s district does this, but I prefer to make Nadler’s district less spectacularly gerrymandered than it is today.

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NY-08

Incumbent: Nydia Veláquez (D) lives in precinct Brooklyn 72-100 in Carroll Gardens.

Population: 700328

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
19	20	48	9	0	4

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 12
Obama %	88.22	86
McCain %	11.14	13

Description: As a VRA district, District 8 covers Hispanic areas of Brooklyn (Bushwick, some of Williamsburg, Boerum Hill, Sunset Park, and Kensington). It connects the two large Hispanic populations with a narrow strip through Prospect Heights and Prospect Park.

The Hispanic population of Brooklyn is barely large and concentrated enough to sustain a high-percentage district. Because of this, I avoided putting any nearby non-Hispanic areas in the district, such as Park Slope, Greenpoint, or the Republican sections of southern Brooklyn.

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NY-09

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D) lives in precinct Manhattan 35-67 on the Upper West Side.

Population: 700352

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
52	11	18	16	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 8
Obama %	85.33	74
McCain %	13.85	25

Description: District 9 runs from the UWS, through Chelsea, and over to the LES. Then it crosses the Brooklyn and Manhattan Bridges, and covers several neighborhoods in Brooklyn: Brooklyn Heights, Park Slope, Red Hook, and Bay Ridge.

The Brooklyn portion of the district consists (by and large) of White Democratic neighborhoods. These are the neighborhoods that are not covered by the VRA districts.

I would ideally like to extend this district far enough down into Bay Ridge so that McMahon’s district would contain none of Brooklyn. However, it is difficult to do this and still have the district reach Nadler’s apartment on 70th St. In the end, I’m satisfied that McMahon’s district is sufficiently Democratic.

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NY-10

Incumbent: Mike McMahon (D) lives in precinct Staten Island 61-35 on the northern part of the island (I don’t know neighborhood names).

Population: 700426

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
72	7	11	8	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 13
Obama %	57.29	49
McCain %	41.95	51

Description: District 10 covers all of Staten Island, part of Bay Ridge in Brooklyn (connected by the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge), and the western half of Lower Manhattan (connected by the Staten Island Ferry).

The existing NY-13 was drawn to favor former Republican congressman Vito Fossella. A major goal of any Democratic redistricting should be to make this into a safe Democratic district. I accomplish this by adding a large portion of heavily Democratic Lower Manhattan. If there were a Republican incumbent, I would have split Staten Island into two pieces in order to guarantee the Republican’s defeat. However, that seems like overkill to shore up the seat for a sitting Democrat.

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NY-11

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D) lives in an unknown precinct on the Upper East Side (I’m assuming between 59th and 96th).

Population: 700270

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
70	4	13	4	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 14
Obama %	77.09	78
McCain %	22.06	21

Description: District 11 covers the Upper East Side and Midtown East in Manhattan, Astoria and Long Island City in Queens, and Greenpoint and Williamsburg (the non-Hispanic parts) in Brooklyn. Although not visible on the Brooklyn map, the two sections of Brooklyn are connected by a couple precincts near the waterfront.

This district is very similar to Maloney’s current district.

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NY-12

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D) lives in precinct Manhattan 70-31 in Harlem.

Population: 700336

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
13	31	51	3	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 15
Obama %	93.62	93
McCain %	5.79	6

Description: District 12 covers Harlem (including Spanish Harlem) and Washington Heights, as well as a bit of the South Bronx. It has majority-minority (in fact, majority Hispanic) population.

Although this district has traditionally been considered a Black district, it is now majority Hispanic. There is a strong possibility of a Hispanic representative once Rangel retires or is driven out of office because of corruption.

I live in this district.

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NY-13

Incumbent: Joe Crowley (D) lives in precinct Queens 30-45 in Woodside.

Population: 700405

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
33	6	38	19	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 7
Obama %	71.26	79
McCain %	27.99	20

Description: District 13 covers several neighborhoods in Queens, including Jackson Heights, Corona, and Middle Village.

This district is quite different from the old NY-07, which reaches into the Bronx. I’m not sure why NY-07 has such a strange shape, and I see no good reason for it.

District 13 is a rare diverse district in the age of VRA-based segregation – no racial group exceeds 40% of the population. If Crowley retires in the coming decade, one could imagine a White, Hispanic, or Asian representative from this district. The Black voting population is actually slightly lower than 6%, since the district includes 8000 Black inmates at Rikers Island.

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NY-14

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D) lives in precinct Queens 28-36 in Forest Hills.

Population: 700334

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
41	8	19	24	0	8

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 9
Obama %	66.67	55
McCain %	32.64	44

Description: District 14 covers several neighborhoods in Queens. Starting at Howard Beach, it comes up through Ozone Park to Forest Hills, and then goes eastbound along the LIE to Little Neck. It also contains Great Neck in Nassau County, in order to isolate the Republican voters there from Peter King.

This district is more Democratic than the existing NY-09. That’s because the existing map uses NY-09 to fracture the Republican vote in southern Brooklyn. Instead, I use Meeks’s more heavily Democratic district to fracture Republicans in Brooklyn.

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NY-15

Incumbent: José E. Serrano (D) lives in precinct Bronx 77-74 in the South Bronx.

Population:700362

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
2	32	62	2	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 16
Obama %	94.60	95
McCain %	5.20	5

Description: District 15 covers the South Bronx, including the area just west of the Whitestone Bridge (Soundview?). It has a 60% Hispanic supermajority.

This district is substantially similar to the existing NY-16. However, it allows Engel to take some more Democratic votes from around Fordham campus.

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NY-16

Incumbent: Eliot Engel (D) lives in precinct Bronx 81-67 in Riverdale.

Population: 700249

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
53	14	26	5	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 17
Obama %	63.08	62
McCain %	36.26	38

Description: District 16 covers the northwestern Bronx (Riverdale, Kingsbridge, Bedford Park) and Yonkers. It then crosses the Hudson and picks up Republican areas along the New Jersey border in Rockland and Orange Counties.

Because this district gets so many Democratic votes from the Bronx and Yonkers, it can very selectively include only Republican voting districts in Rockland County. Many voting districts in Rockland County are either very Republican or very Democratic (possibly because of the separation of the Orthodox Jewish communities from other towns up there). As a result, the remainder of Rockland County can provide a core of Democratic votes for a district in the Hudson Valley. Obama lost District 16’s portion of Rockland County (134k population) by 16%, but won the remainder (167k population) by 23%.

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NY-17

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D) lives in precinct Harrison 10 near Rye.

Population: 700372

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
43	23	21	10	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 18
Obama %	71.91	62
McCain %	27.53	38

Description: Within New York City, District 17 covers Whitestone in Queens and most of the eastern Bronx. It then continues along the shore (New Rochelle and Rye).

Nita Lowey used to represent parts of Bronx and Queens, and she can again. In compensation for taking away most of her current district’s population, I’ve given her a heavily Democratic district majority-minority district.

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NY-18

Incumbent: John Hall (D) lives in precinct Dover 1 in Dover Plains.

Population:700344

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
74	11	10	3	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 19
Obama %	58.07	51
McCain %	41.05	48

Description: District 18 starts in Democratic Mt. Vernon next to the Bronx, and snakes its way up through Democratic White Plains to rural Putnam and Dutchess Counties.

This district is heavily Democratic, without cutting into the Hudson Valley precincts that I need for the new Democratic-leaning District 19.

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NY-19

Incumbent: None.

Population: 700376

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
71	11	12	3	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New
Obama %	58.20
McCain %	40.79

Description: District 19 lies in the Hudson Valley, including Poughkeepsie, Newburgh, Peekskill, and the Democratic portions of Rockland County. (See description of District 16 above.)

Although this district strongly favors Democrats at the federal level, there is no Democratic incumbent. Furthermore, the state legislators are all Republican, as are the mayors of Poughkeepsie and Newburgh. I believe that a Democratic non-politician along the lines of Hall, Murphy, or Owens would claim this seat. However, if the DCCC failed to recruit effectively, this district could fall to a local Republican.

Neither Sue Kelly (lost to Hall in 2006), John Sweeney (lost to Gillibrand in 2006), nor Jim Tedisco (lost to Murphy in 2009) lives in this district.

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NY-20

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D) lives in precinct Amsterdam city 1.

Population: 700342

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
89	6	3	1	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 21
Obama %	54.49	58
McCain %	43.68	40

Description: District 20 contains part of the Capital Region, including Albany.

This district is slightly less Democratic than its predecessor. Most notably, it gives up Democratic Schenectady and Troy in order to make the new District 21 safer.

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NY-21

Incumbent: Scott Murphy (D) lives in precinct Glens Falls 5; Bill Owens (D) lives in precinct Plattsburgh 3.

Population: 700425

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
92	3	2	1	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 20	Old 23
Obama %	54.90	51	52
McCain %	43.41	48	47

Description: District 21 runs along the Vermont border, containing Schenectady, Troy, Saratoga Springs, and Plattsburgh.

The existing NY-20 and NY-23 were both created for Republican incumbents, and neither is particularly attractive to Democrats. Rather than contort district boundaries to preserve seats for both of these Blue Dogs, I prefer to carve up the moderate/Republican North Country to give safer seats to one of them and to Arcuri.

In a head-to-head primary, both candidates would have a reasonable chance of winning, since many of the Democratic votes would come from around Schenectady and Troy, which are presently in Tonko’s district.

Of course, there’s a real chance that one of these incumbents will lose in 2010. If that happens, then this district should favor the Democratic incumbent. Jim Tedisco (lost to Murphy) and Doug Hoffman (lost to Owens) both live in this district, but Dede Scozzafava (withdrew against Owens) does not.

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NY-22

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D) lives in precinct Hurley 3.

Population: 700380

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
87	5	5	2	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old
Obama %	53.24	59
McCain %	45.30	39

Description: District 22 contains Kingston, Middletown, Binghamton, and Elmira.

Giving Democratic Ithaca to Hinchey only makes sense if one is trying to pack Upstate Democratic votes in order to create Republican seats. This new district has enough Democrats from Binghamton and the Hudson Valley to be easily winnable.

Hinchey (born 1938) will probably retire during the next decade, and Republicans could make a play for this district in an open-seat election. However, the eastern part of the district is quickly becoming more Democratic (see Sue Kelly and John Sweeney), and I would expect Democrats to hold the seat.

Since the average district size increased by 4%, this new District 22 can span about the same amount of longitude without looking quite as goofy as the old NY-22.

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NY-23

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri (D) lives in precinct Utica 4.

Population: 700382

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
92	3	2	2	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 24
Obama %	52.62	50
McCain %	45.66	48

Description: District 23 contains Potsdam, Utica, and Ithaca.

Arcuri looked surprisingly weak in the 2008 election. However, with the advantage of incumbency and a district that’s a few percent safer, he should be able to hold his seat. He is one of the few Democratic incumbents who may stay in Congress until 2030.

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NY-24

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D) lives in precinct DeWitt 3 near Syracuse.

Population: 700338

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
87	7	2	2	1	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 25
Obama %	55.45	56
McCain %	42.76	43

Description: District 24 contains Syracuse and Watertown.

This is the safest of the seats in the central part of the state. Its Democratic performance is similar to Maffei’s old district, but it crucially takes its non-Syracuse Democratic votes from the North rather than from the Rochester area. This allows the Rochester area to be split into Democratic-leaning districts.

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NY-25

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D) lives in Corning city.

Population: 700395

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
91	4	2	1	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 29
Obama %	52.64	48
McCain %	45.92	50

Description: District 25 is based in the Rochester area, containing the eastern part of the city, and most of the northeastern suburbs. It goes along the Lake Ontario coast as far East as Oswego, and also extends to the Finger Lakes Region (Auburn, Geneva, Canandaigua) and down through rural areas to the Pennsylvania border.

This district is much safer for Massa than the old NY-29.

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NY-26

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D) lives in precinct Perinton 14 in Fairport.

Population: 700170

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
80	12	5	2	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 28
Obama %	53.00	68
McCain %	45.73	30

Description: District 26 is also based in the Rochester area, containing the western part of the city and most of the suburbs. It contains rural areas (including Livingston and Allegany Counties) going South to the Pennsylvania border.

To create more safe Democratic seats in western New York, I give Slaughter’s Buffalo Democrats to the new NY-27 and give some of her Rochester Democrats to Massa in the new NY-25.

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NY-27

Incumbent: None.

Population: 700157

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
84	11	2	2	1	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 26
Obama %	54.55	46
McCain %	43.90	52

Description: District 27 is based in the Buffalo area, containing the northern part of the city, Niagara Falls, and rural areas to the North and East.

On a map, it may appear as though this district should “belong” to Lee, if he decided to move into it. However, only about 300k of the residents are part of Lee’s current district. Nearly as many (270k) are part of Slaughter’s current district, and the remainder are largely Democrats from Higgins’s district.

Because there is no Democratic incumbent here, I’ve made it the safest Democratic seat of western New York. If Lee did decide to run here, he would face a very tough district full of Democrats who don’t know him. Furthermore, Lee is not a strong candidate. Despite a bitter three-way Democratic primary in 2008 that produced a weak candidate, Lee barely managed to outpoll McCain in his current district.

Byron Brown (mayor of Buffalo) and Alice Kryzan (lost to Lee in 2008) live in this district. Jon Powers (lost in the primary to Kryzan in 2008) and Tom Reynolds (retired in 2008) do not. I don’t know about Jack Davis (lost several times).

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NY-28

Incumbents: Brian Higgins (D) lives in precinct South 19 in Buffalo; Chris Lee (R) lives in an unknown precinct in Clarence.

Population: 700176

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
85	8	4	1	1	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 27
Obama %	54.23	54
McCain %	44.11	44

Description: District 28 is based in the Buffalo area, containing the southern part of the city, the eastern and southern suburbs, and rural Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties.

Higgins would certainly beat Lee in an incumbent-incumbent matchup. A considerable majority of the population comes from Higgins’s old district, and the district leans safely to Democrats.

I am wondering if anyone has access to the old congressional maps of 1992 for New York. This isn’t really for the contest; I’m just kind of curious. Thanks in advanced (I’ll delete the diary, as this really isn’t a diary, once I get it)!

This is my entry for Round 1 of the Great SSP Redistricting Contest. Let me apologize to the early commenters who couldn’t see the whole diary.  I was saving it as I typed it just in case my computer decided to shut down on me in the middle of this long write up.  Without further ado…

In addition to the contest rules, I added two personal goals for my map: 1) Create 28 districts that gave a majority of their votes to President Obama. 2) Add some cushion to potentially vulnerable members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. CPC members are Clarke, Hall, Hinchey, Maloney, Massa, Nadler, Rangel, Serrano, Slaughter and Velazquez.

Here's the big picture:  

Long Island

NY-1 Tim Bishop

Population:  700,503

New 1st:  Obama – 53, McCain – 47

Old 1st:  Obama – 52, McCain – 48

Race:  White – 84, Black – 4, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 8, Other – 1.

This district isn’t much different from it’s old counterpart.  Smithtown is no longer in this district while parts of Islip have been added.  Bishop’s district is slightly more Democratic, with +2 percentage points.

NY-2 Steve Israel

Population:  701,080

New 2nd:  Obama – 53, McCain – 47

Old 2nd:  Obama – 56, McCain – 43

Race:  White – 74, Black – 8, Asian – 3, Hispanic – 13, Other – 2.

This district isn’t as strong as Israel’s old one (you’ll find out why below), but is still majority-Obama.  Smithtown from the 1st and parts of Babylon from the 3rd have been added. been added.  Parts of Islip, Oyster Bay, and Babylon have been subtracted.  With these changes, Obama is -7 from the old 2nd, but still takes 53% of the vote.

NY-3 Carolyn McCarthy

Population:  700,222

New 3rd:  Obama – 54, McCain – 45

Old 3rd:  Obama – 47, McCain – 52

Old 4th:  Obama – 58, McCain – 41

Race:  White – 71, Black – 12, Asian – 4, Hispanic – 12, Other – 2.

Since we get bonus points for screwing Peter King, I decided to eliminate his district.  Oyster Bay is now split into McCarthy’s and Ackerman’s districts.  I don’t know which part King’s house is in, but unless he moves, he’ll have to run against one of them.  I tried to keep the new 2nd, 3rd, and 4th districts as evenly Democratic as possible, so they were all diluted to get their fair share of King’s pro-McCain district.  In McCarthy’s case, her home in Mineola, Hempstead, and parts of Oyster Bay make a change of -8 from her old district.

NY-4 Gary Ackerman

Population:  700,925

New 4th:  Obama – 54, McCain – 45

Old 5th:  Obama – 63, McCain – 36

Race:  White – 78, Black – 6, Asian – 7, Hispanic – 8, Other – 1.

This district is ugly.  Ackerman was hit the hardest of the 3, but in order to screw King, he’ll have to take one for the team.  His district is still Obama +9.  His home of Roslyn Heights, plus parts of Oyster Bay, Hempstead, Babylon, and Queens make up the new 4th.  Change is a whopping -18.

The Boroughs

NY-5 Gregory Meeks

Population:  700,739

New 5th:  Obama – 82, McCain – 18

Old 6th:  Obama – 89, McCain – 11

Race:  White – 21, Black – 52, Asian – 7, Hispanic – 14, Other – 6.

This is a VRA district, 52% black.  Not much has really changed here from the old 6th.  Some of the western areas have been placed in the new 8th.

NY-6 Joseph Crowley

Population:  701,328

New 6th:  Obama – 74, McCain – 25

Old 7th:  Obama – 79, McCain – 20

Race:  White – 25, Black – 6, Asian – 27, Hispanic – 38, Other – 4.

Crowley loses the Bronx, but gains more of Queens.

NY-7 Jerry Nadler

Population:  700,683

New 7th:  Obama – 56, McCain – 43

Old 8th:  Obama – 74, McCain – 26

Race:  White – 65, Black – 4, Asian – 15, Hispanic – 12, Other – 3.

This district took a big hit in order to help McMahon.  Includes much of South Brooklyn and snakes up into the Northern parts.

NY-8 Anthony Weiner

Population:  701,185

New 8th:  Obama – 61, McCain – 38

Old 9th:  Obama – 55, McCain – 44

Race:  White – 55, Black – 6, Asian – 17, Hispanic – 16, Other – 6.

Weiner’s distric is simililar to his old one, but loses some Brooklyn areas, holds onto Forest Hills, and adds more of Queens.  Obama gains +12.

NY-9 Ed Towns

Population:  700,786

New 9th:  Obama – 92, McCain – 7

Old 10th:  Obama – 91, McCain – 9

Race:  White – 17, Black – 60, Asian – 7, Hispanic – 12, Other – 3.

Another VRA district, this one 60% black.  This Brooklyn based district now extends into Manhattan.

NY-10 Yvette Clarke

Population:  700,960

New 10th:  Obama – 84, McCain – 16

Old 11th:  Obama – 91, McCain – 9

Race:  White – 25, Black – 52, Asian – 5, Hispanic – 13, Other – 4.

VRA district, 52% black.  Clarke’s new district now snakes into Queens.

NY-11 Nydia Velazquez

Population:  700,306

New 8th:  Obama – 87, McCain – 12

Old 9th:  Obama – 86, McCain – 13

Race:  White – 22, Black – 16, Asian – 8, Hispanic – 50, Other – 4.

VRA district that is 50% hispanic.  Still gets Brooklyn and Manhattan but also gets much more of Queens.

NY-12 Mike McMahon

Population:  701,421

New 12th:  Obama – 54, McCain – 45

Old 13th:  Obama – 49, McCain – 51

Race:  White – 61, Black – 8, Asian – 8, Hispanic – 20, Other – 3.

This district should be much easier for McMahon, going from majority McCain to majority Obama.  Still has all of Staten Island, but Brooklyn areas are more Democratic than the old 13th.

NY-13 Carolyn Maloney

Population:  699,898

New 13th:  Obama – 81, McCain – 18

Old 14th:  Obama – 78, McCain – 21

Race:  White – 72, Black – 5, Asian – 11, Hispanic – 10, Other – 2.

Maloney’s Upper East Side base, plus Southern Manhattan.  No longer in Queens.

NY-14 Charlie Rangel

Population:  700,649

New 14th:  Obama – 91, McCain – 8

Old 15th:  Obama – 93, McCain – 6

Race:  White – 29, Black – 26, Asian – 3, Hispanic – 40, Other – 2.

VRA district that is 71% minority.  Rangel gets some new areas south of his old district but cedes some of his old district to the new 11th and new 15th.

NY-15 Jose Serrano

Population:  701,218

New 15th:  Obama – 95, McCain – 5

Old 16th:  Obama – 95, McCain – 5

Race:  White – 3, Black – 30, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 63, Other – 2.

VRA district that is 63% hispanic.  Other than taking a little bit of Manhattan and a little bit of Queens, this district does not change much.

NY-16 Eliot Engel

Population:  699,973

New 16th:  Obama – 80, McCain – 20

Old 17th:  Obama – 72, McCain – 28

Race:  White – 33, Black – 22, Asian – 6, Hispanic – 36, Other – 3.

Instead of going from Engel’s home of Woodside and heading upstate, this district takes most of the Bronx areas from the old 7th and even gets into north Queens a little bit.

Upstate

NY-17 Nita Lowey

Population:  701,251

New 17th:  Obama – 70, McCain – 30

Old 18th:  Obama – 62, McCain – 38

Race:  White – 50, Black – 25, Asian – 4, Hispanic – 18, Other – 3.

Loses parts of Rockland Co. and the parts of Westchester Co. down to the Northern parts of White Plains.  Extends south into Mount Vernon and the Bronx.

NY-18 John Hall

Population:  700,819

New 18th:  Obama – 57, McCain – 42

Old 19th:  Obama – 51, McCain – 48

Race:  White – 77, Black – 8, Asian – 3, Hispanic – 9, Other – 2.

Of all the districts, this one was my favorite to rearrange.  Hall was elected in a 54% Bush district that only improved to 51% Obama in the 2008 election.  Can’t let that stand, now can we?  Hall now has Westchester Co. north of White Plains, all of Putnam Co., and Dutchess Co. up to his home in Dover.  Obama gets +12.  That should give this CPC member plenty of breathing room.  Dance with me.

NY-19 Scott Murphy

Population:  700,169

New 19th:  Obama – 54, McCain – 45

Old 20th:  Obama – 51, McCain – 48

Race:  White – 92, Black – 3, Asian – 1, Hispanic – 2, Other – 1.

Murphy keeps his home in Glens Falls but loses the rest of Warren Co.  He also loses Ostego, Delaware, and Greene.  In exchange, he gains some Albany burbs.

NY-20 Paul Tonko

Population:  701,411

New 20th:  Obama – 56, McCain – 43

Old 21st:  Obama – 58, McCain – 40

Race:  White – 83, Black – 8, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 6, Other – 2.

Tonko gets Albany, most of Albany Co., Schenectady, Schoharie, Greene, and Mongomery Cos.  He also gets parts of Delaware, Sullivan, Orange, Fulton, and Herkimer Cos.

NY-21 Maurice Hinchey

Population:  700,399

New 21st:  Obama – 55, McCain – 44

Old 20th:  Obama – 59, McCain – 39

Race:  White – 77, Black – 8, Asian – 3, Hispanic – 10, Other – 2.

Hinchey gets Ulster and Rockland Cos., plus eastern parts of Orange.

NY-22 Bill Owens

Population:  701,006

New 22nd:  Obama – 52, McCain – 47

Old 23rd:  Obama – 52, McCain – 47

Race:  White – 94, Black – 2, Asian – 1, Hispanic – 2, Other – 1.

Owens basically gets the northern part of the state.  Presidential vote percentage stays the same.

NY-23 Mike Arcuri

Population:  698,936

New 23rd:  Obama – 53, McCain – 46

Old 24th:  Obama – 51, McCain – 48

Race:  White – 89, Black – 6, Asian – 1, Hispanic – 3, Other – 1.

I tried to help Arcuri, considering how close his reelection was in 2008.  I tried to help him there by taking away some Republican areas such as Herkimer, Broome, and Tioga and giving him the bottom half of Syracuse and all of Madison Co.  Obama gets +4.

NY-24 Dan Maffei

Population:  700,343

New 24th:  Obama – 53, McCain – 45

Old 25th:  Obama – 56, McCain – 43

Race:  White – 92, Black – 3, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 2, Other – 1.

Maffei’s district gets -5 for Obama voters, but he should still be safe.  District stretches from Syracuse to Rochester and picks up Republican Ontario Co. and parts of Steuben and Livingston.

NY-25 Chris Lee

Population:  701,362

New 25th:  Obama – 52, McCain – 47

Old 26th:  Obama – 46, McCain – 52

Race:  White – 85, Black – 9, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 3, Other – 1.

Like King, Lee now finds himself in a majority Obama district.  Working Families Party’s 2008 nominee Jon Powers lives in Clarence with Lee and would probably be able to win this district (heck I think he could have won it in 2008 had it not been for that messed up Democratic Primary).  It stretches from Rochester to Buffalo and includes all of Genesee and Orleans Cos. and most of Niagara Co.

NY-26 Brian Higgins

Population:  695,323

New 26th:  Obama – 54, McCain – 45

Old 27th:  Obama – 54, McCain – 44

Race:  White – 89, Black – 5, Native – 1, Asian – 1, Hispanic – 4, Other – 1.

Not much changes partisanship wise for Higgins.  He now has Niagara Falls, West Buffalo, West Erie Co, all of Chautauqua, West and South Cattaraugus, and South Allegany.

NY-27 Louise Slaughter

Population:  694,213

New 27th:  Obama – 58, McCain – 41

Old 28th:  Obama – 69, McCain – 30

Race:  White – 77, Black – 15, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 4, Other – 1.

This one goes from Rochester to Buffalo and then snakes over to Steuben, Yates, and Schuyler Cos.  Kinda ugly, but honestly, I think my districts are much better looking than whoever drew the current New York map.  I’m guessing it was Pataki and the Republicans in the legislature wanting to protect several districts that now belong to Democrats.  Ha ha.  In any event, Slaughter loses a lot of Obama voters, but still has a good district.

NY-28 Eric Massa

Population:  701,496

New 28th:  Obama – 54, McCain – 44

Old 29th:  Obama – 48, McCain – 51

Race:  White – 88, Black – 6, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 2, Other – 1.

Like McMahon, Massa goes from a McCain district to an Obama district.  Like Hall, Massa is now a CPC member with a district not as hostile.  Buffalo, down to his home in Corning, up into Thompkins Co. and east to Delaware, Sullivan, and Orange.  Possibly the ugliest district on my map.  But it’s an ugly district that gave Obama +10 over McCain.

There you have it, 28 districts that gave Barack Obama a majority in 2008.  Can all of these districts elect Democrats?  Yes.  Will they?  That depends on our candidates.

Let me know what you think.

As promised a few days ago, I’d post the second part of my proposed New York Senate map. So without further ado, here it is.

I also tried to have the numbers make more sense. The goal was to make the city entirely Democratic (except Staten Island), then to get as many districts out of upstate Democratic centers as possible.

I may have been a tad too aggressive upstate, with three Buffalo Dems, two Rochester Dems, two Syracuse Dems, two Albany Dems, and one Ithaca-Binghamton Dem (in addition to Aubertine).

I also tried to stick to one man-one vote and keep the deviations down, but I couldn’t resist underpacking some Democratic districts and overpacking Republican districts..

As long as I’ve been interested in politics, I’ve never understood how the NYS Senate was controlled by Republicans for so long, especially in a state as Democratic as New York.

So the purpose of my diary was two-fold: to understand the situation as it is now (our tenuous 2-seat majority), and to look at what a potential redistricting would look like that would cement Democratic control (for the next time…I don’t feel like formatting too much html.)

I started by analyzing Obama’s performance in each Senate district – after Pres-by-CD and the NY political data in Dave’s app, this wasn’t too difficult. Just follow me over the flip…

Here’s the massive table with results from Pres-by-SD.

In case you’re wondering, McCain won a scant 9 districts of 62. Since one, the 27th, is represented by Carl Kruger, there are a whopping 22 “Obama Republicans” in the NY Senate. There are 8 black-majority districts: 2 in Queens, 4 in Brooklyn, 1 in Manhattan, and 1 in Bronx/Westchester. There are 6 Hispanic-majority districts, 1 in Queens, 1 in Brooklyn, 2 in the Bronx, and 2 Bronx-Manhattan hybrids.

Is this surprising? Not really – Presidential toplines aren’t necessarily indicative, and this is certainly true here. But looking at the results a little differently, a pretty clear line is drawn in the Obama 58-60% range.

So I’d like to propose Obama at 59% as the ‘safe’ line for a Democrat in the NY Senate – only two Republicans live above this line, and six Democrats below: Brian Foley (54.69%) and Craig Johnson of Long Island (55.55%); David Valesky (58.46%), whose district which runs between Rome, Syracuse, and Auburn; Darrel Aubertine of the North Country (49.75%); and Bill Stachowski (56.30%) of Buffalo, and Carl Kruger of Sheepshead Bay, who I don’t think counts for many reasons maybe better saved for a diary on voting patterns in Brooklyn.

Only two Republicans live above this line – both of whom faced stiff challenges in 2008 and nearly fell victim to the Obama tide, Frank Padavan of Bellerose (Obama+26) and James Robach of Greece (Obama+33) (!!…Robach is a former Democrat).

There aren’t too many other surprises on this list, except for maybe that the most Republican district in all of New York is Andrew Lanza’s Staten Island district…

So now you’re asking…what does this mean for redistricting?

Well, a few things moving forward:

• the goal, unlike Congressional redistricting, is no longer solely to squeeze every Democratic district out possible, it’s to get to the magic number for control first.
  

• at a certain point, the weakening effect (on the margin) from creating another Democratic district becomes greater than the effect of that marginal Democrat. (For example, is there really that much of a difference between 43 and 44 Democrats out of 62?) [Sidenote: Yes, in some cases, like marriage equality, it does…but if we had 11 more Dems in the Senate, I’m pretty sure the bill would have passed…]
  

• the NYS GOP pushed the 5% up-or-down rule to the limit. Given the ideal district size of 306,072, districts in the city, on Long Island, and in Westchester have an average population of 311,344; the average population upstate is 298,269!
  

• the GOP gerrymandered well upstate: they conceded two districts in Buffalo and one in Albany, but split Syracuse and Rochester two-ways, and Ithaca three to dilute Democratic votes. This happens on Long Island as well, where the Democratic center of Nassau County in Uniondale and Hempstead are split between Kemp Hannon (who did almost lose), Carl Marcellino, and Dean Skelos.
  

• in a revised upstate (and Long Island) map, we simply need to uncrack these Democrats. This isn’t like congressional redistricting where Republicans need to be cracked so we can preserve our overwhelming advantage; we can concede a few districts without too much trouble. The same holds for Long Island and in the Hudson Valley.
  

• the opposite holds true in the city, where we have a large surplus of Democratic votes that we can dilute the influence of Republican voters.
  

My plan made 43 districts above the safe line. Assuming we can’t knock off Robach and we keep both Stachowski and Kruger, we’d be talking 44 or 45 Democrats. Funny how much tweaking boundaries can change things. Stay tuned for the map itself.\

Update:As Andrew says, maps would be helpful. Here’s the senate as it currently is. I’m working on final maps for my proposed districts.

After messing around with Dave’s App to learn about how to enter a good product into the contest, I see that it is somewhat difficult to strengthen all Democratic incumbents. Based on my knowledge about the 2002 lines, I know that many of the districts (Reynolds, Sweeney, Kelly, etc.) were designed to keep GOP congressmen safe. I decided it would be cool to see what a GOP gerrymander would look like, knowing full-well that the GOP will never be in complete control of the redistricting process. Please enjoy a grossly gerrymandered upstate New York that, in a normal year, would result in a 20-8 Democratic congressional delegation (assuming King was made safer and Bishop made significantly weaker).

Please also enjoy something that is probably worthless.

When creating this map, I stupidly closed the tab that had all of the exact numbers for each of the districts. All of the numbers are based on my memory of when I drew them, though I’m pretty sure my estimates are very accurate. I have redrawn some of them to check if I’m correct.

Goals:

Create an upstate map that at least six GOP candidates could win

Force Democratic congresscritters to compete against each other

Ax one Democratic district (I actually combined a number of them, so none was really “axed” per se, but one can argue Arcuri’s district is the most axed)

Map without counties:

Map with counties:

Analysis:

District 17: DARKISH BLUE

Obama: 65%

McCain: 33%

PVI D+13

Incumbent: Nita Lowey and Eliot Engel

Both Lowey and Engel live in this district, but I presume Engel would run in the neighboring 19th. This district is safe for any Democrat.

District 18 TEAL

Obama: 49%

McCain: 49%

PVI: R+3

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri

Keeps his base in Utica, but without Tompkins County, Arcuri should lose.

District 19: LIGHT GREEN

Obama: 63%

McCain: 35%

PVI D+11

Incumbent: None (but probably Engel)

This district is gerrymandered to take all of the Democratic votes in the upper suburbs, so any Democrat running here would be safe.

District 20: MEDIUM GREEN

Obama: 49%

McCain: 50%

PVI R+3

Incumbent: John Hall

This would add a lot of new territory for Hall, and it still has the same Republican bent. I would say that in any regular year, Hall would have a very difficult time.

District 21: BROWN

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

PVI D+3

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey

Hinchey’s district loses Democratic votes. His base in Ultser should make him fine in this district, but when he decides to retire, it’s going to be tough to find a Dem as progressive as he is.

District 22: DARK RED

Obama: 48%

McCain: 51%

PVI R+4

Incumbent: None

This sprawling district makes up the suburbs of Albany and dances around Albany and Schenectady. This district could be winnable by a Scott Murphy-type (who I imagine would run in here instead of the 23rd, where he lives), but Murphy barely won in his home district, which Obama carried.

District 23 PINK

Obama: 61%

McCain: 37%

PVI D+9

Incumbent: Paul Tonko, Scott Murphy, Bill Owens

Packing the urban areas of Albany and Schenectady and combining them with the heavily Democratic counties up north, and you have a solidly-Democratic district (making districts around it more Republican).

District 24 GRAY

Obama: 47%

McCain: 51%

PVI: R+5

Incumbent: Eric Massa

Massa could theoretically win this district, as his present district is hostile enough to Democrats. The new 24th has the same Southern Tier character, but is probably a bit more conservative. It takes in Syracuse’s suburbs instead of Rochester’s.

District 25 WEST GREEN DISTRICT

Obama: 48%

McCain: 51%

PVI: R+4

Incumbent: Chris Lee

Buffalo and Rochester suburbs should keep Lee safe.

District 26 DARK PINK

Obama: 47%

McCain: 52%

PVI: R+5

Incumbent: None

A newly-minted Republican district.

District 27 PURPLE

Obama: 59%

McCain: 39%

PVI: D+7

Incumbent: Dan Maffei

Packs metro Syracuse with Ithaca for a solid Democratic district.

District 28 WESTERN PINK DISTRICT

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

PVI: D+19

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter and Brian Higgins

The dreaded earmuffs district packs all of Rochester and Buffalo into one district for a super-Democratic disctrict.

Here is my entry for Round 1 of the Great Swing State Project Redistricting Contest – New York Edition.

Because New York’s population has not been keeping up with the national average, it is expected to lose a seat. In my map, that seat in Peter King’s NY-03. NY-03 on Long Island is eliminated and “moved” all the way to the other side of the State, where it reappears as the successor of Eric Massa’s NY-29. NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, NY-05, NY-06, and NY-18 all devour a piece of NY-03, though NY-06 and NY-04 get the toughest pieces of meat. But other than NY-29 being renumbered NY-03, all the district numbers correspond to their existing incumbents.

There are only 11 districts which voted less than 60% for Obama (NY-01, NY-20, NY-21, NY-22, NY-23, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-27, NY-28, NY-03), only 5 districts which voted less than 57% for Obama (NY-23, NY-24, NY-26, NY-27, NY-03), only 2 districts which voted less than 53% for Obama (NY-24, NY-26), and only one district that McCain actually won (NY-26).

All incumbents should live in their districts (or else live close enough that only a few precincts would need to be traded in order for them to live in their district), with the exception of Jerold Nadler (NY-08). He already lives at the far northern edge of his district, and it gets sucked further into Brooklyn. Oh yeah, and I suppose Peter King is also an exception – he does not live in his district any more because he does not have a district any more.

All other contest rules are obeyed (No touch point contiguity, VRA districts fully respected, etc).

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Upstate

Upstate, my goal was to strengthen Democratic incumbents to the degree possible without significantly endangering other Democratic incumbents. For example, I wanted to make NY-23, more Democratic not at the expense of turning NY-21 into a seat that is potentially competitive. I also wanted to reduce the appearance of gerrymandering in this part of the State, partly because gerrymandering is the most conspicuous in upstate New York. Because upstate has a disproportionate ratio of land mass to population, people just looking at a map of Congressional districts will naturally focus on upstate when determining how gerrymandered New York looks. I also wanted to keep at least the core of all the existing districts, which is challenging because much of the population loss has been in upstate New York. Because I did not eliminate a district upstate, all the upstate districts feel a substantial force sucking them towards NYC.

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NY-27

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	88%	5%	1%	4%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	54%	44%
New District	55%	43%
Change	+1%	-1%

Given the fact that Erie County is large enough that it has to be split no matter what we do, and given my desire to strengthen Eric Massa’s NY-29 (renumbered to NY-03), I opted to largely keep NY-27 as it is. The only changes are that it gives up some of Buffalo’s eastern suburbs (most significantly Cheektowaga) to NY-03, and picks up Niagara Falls and Tonawanda to the north. As a result, NY-27 becomes marginally more Democratic and safer for Higgins. Obama did not improve by much here over Kerry, and Buffalo may be trending slightly Republican, but Higgins should continue to be favored here.

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NY-03

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	82%	14%	2%	1%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	48%	51%
New District	55%	44%
Change	+7%	-7%

Eric Massa’s district (old NY-29, renamed NY-03) is difficult to deal with. Massa lives in Corning in Steuben County, which is very inconvenient because the counties in that area are some of the most heavily Republican in New York State. Because I wanted to clean up Rochester and because the districts in Western New York have to be pushed generally to the East, sending the district north did not really work. I tried making an Ithaca-Binghampton based district for Massa, but that does not really work either because without Ithaca, it is difficult to avoid weakening NY-24. Also, if you make an Ithaca-Binghampton/Elmira/Corning district for Massa, then you have to waste Democratic votes in the Buffalo area unless you keep a modified Rochester-Buffalo version of NY-28 (which in turn means that Rochester is still split asunder). All this should make the point that western New York is a very delicate balancing act, and there is not really any great obvious way to draw the districts. Reorganizing things so that Massa’s district goes to Buffalo seems to be the least worst option.

In any case, Massa’s district swings Democratic by a net of 14 points. About half the population is in Erie County, so he could potentially face a primary challenge, but assuming Massa prevails in any primary and that people in Buffalo get to like him, he should have an excellent chance to hold on to this district for a long time to come.

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NY-26

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	94%	2%	1%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	46%	52%
New District	43%	56%
Change	-3%	+3%

Now we come to the token Republican district in New York State. Chris Lee should be quite safe in NY-26, representing a district that stretches all the way from the Buffalo Suburbs to the Rochestere suburbs and even to outlying areas around Binghamton. But mostly, this district is rural. It would be possible to make it more heavily Republican and to help make neighboring districts (particularly NY-03) slightly more Democratic in several places, but not without splitting many more counties and making upstate New York look much more gerrymandered.

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NY-28

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	77%	13%	3%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	69%	30%
New District	59%	39%
Change	-10%	+9%

Rochester is put back together, into one fairly safe Democratic district. Though this NY-28 is substantially less Democratic than the previous Rochester to Buffalo serpent, it is still Democratic enough for Louise Slaughter or whichever Democrat succeeds her to win easily.

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NY-25

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	88%	6%	2%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	56%	43%
New District	57%	42%
Change	+1%	-1%

NY-25 remains firmly anchored in the Syracuse area. Onadonga County continues to dominate the district. But instead of heading west to the Rochester suburbs, NY-25 now heads south to the outskirts of Binghamton. If there is further population loss after another 10 years, NY-25 could become a true Syracuse-Binghamton district tracing I-81. Maffei should be slightly safer in this marginally more Democratic district.

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NY-24

Incumbent: Mike Arcuri (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	91%	3%	2%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	52%	46%
Change	+1%	-2%

NY-24 becomes swings a net of 3 points Democratic, but realistically remains a swing district. NY-24 is composed of two major pieces. To the east of Syracuse is the area surrounding Utica (Oneida, Herkimer, and Otsego Counties). To the west of Syracuse is the finger lakes region (Tompkins, Auburn, and Seneca Counties, with the city of Geneva thrown in). The old version of NY-24 connected these two pieces by running to the south of Syracuse, while the new NY-24 connects the pieces by running to the north of Syracuse, through Oswego County.

NY-24 could still run to the South through Cortland and Chenango Counties, but then NY-25 would have to take Oswego County, and would have to split the bothe Cayuga and Oneida counties with NY-24. That would make NY-25 1 point less Democratic and NY-24 1 point more Democratic than my version, but it also looks much more gerrymandered.

In any case, Arcuri can’t really complain, because his district adds Ithaca and becomes more Democratic, even if only a little bit more Democratic. This is not necessarily a safe Democratic seat for perpetuity, but Mike Arcuri has a good chance of holding it.

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NY-23

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	93%	2%	1%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	52%	46%
New District	53%	46%
Change	+1%	0%

NY-23 becomes a much more compact and ever so slightly more Democratic district firmly based in New York’s North Country. The district consists of all of Jefferson, Lewis, St. Lawrence, Hamilton, Franklin, Clinton, and Essex counties, along with nearly all of Warren and Saratoga Counties, taken from the old NY-20.

It is very tempting to give NY-23 some Democratic precincts in the Albany/Schenectady area. That could be done, but at the cost of a more gerrymandered looking map and possibly at the cost of pushing NY-21 towards competitiveness, which I wanted to avoid. One potential problem is that Doug Hoffman is drawn into the district. But if Owens can win in 2010, he ought to be able to win this new district in 2012 as well.

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NY-21

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	86%	7%	2%	3%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	58%	40%
New District	57%	41%
Change	-1%	+1%

NY-21 stays almost entirely the same. The only difference is that it now takes in all of Fulton County, and slightly more of Rensselaer County. The upshot is that it swings a net of 2 points Republican, but remains a reasonably strong Democratic leaning district. Tonko is no less safe than he is now.

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NY-20

Incumbent: Scott Murphy (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	80%	8%	3%	7%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	58%	41%
Change	+7%	-7%

NY-20 is one of the chief beneficiaries of the magnetic force pulling upstate districts towards New York City. A former swing district becomes much more solidly Democratic. Though a substantial portion of the district (Washington, Columbia, Greene, and parts of Rensselaer and Dutchess Counties) remains, the population center drifts down further towards the NYC suburbs, with the addition of Poughkeepsie and other towns along the East bank of the Hudson all the way to the edge of Yonkers. Murphy’s home in Glens Falls is included – barely – in the far north of the district (yes, that looks like touch point contiguity, but it’s not if you zoom in). It is quite possible that Scott Murphy could face a primary challenge from the southern end of the district. But regardless of which particular person NY-20 sends to Washington or whether that person lives in the north or the south of the district, that person would very likely be a Democrat.

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NY-22

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	79%	7%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	59%	39%
New District	57%	42%
Change	-2%	+1%

NY-22 loses both Ithaca and Poughkeepsie, but becomes only marginally more Republican. It expands a little bit down the western bank of the Hudson, through Orange and into Rockland County, but (with the exception of the losses previously mentioned) this district remains substantially the same. Hinchey will be just fine.

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NY-19

Incumbent: John Hall (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	62%	20%	3%	12%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	60%	39%
Change	+9%	-9%

Like NY-20, NY-19 becomes much more Democratic as it is sucked into Westchester County. As with NY-20, the incumbent (John Hall) lives in the very north of the district, in Dover Plains. NY-19 is now entirely to the east of the Hudson river, and it includes White Plains, Scarsdale, and Mount Vernon, as well as part of Yonkers and a bit of the North Bronx. Fully 63% of the district will be new to Hall, so he could theoretically face a primary from someone who lives in southern Westchester county, but Hall should be reasonably well suited for the new NY-19.

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NY-17

Incumbent: Elliot Engel (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	57%	13%	4%	23%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	72%	28%
New District	61%	38%
Change	-11%	+10%

NY-17 becomes substantially more Republican, but not so much as to put Elliot Engel in any real jeapordy. Mount Vernon and part of the Bronx are traded for part of Orange County and an expanded piece of Rockland County. This district would be reasonably safe for most Democrats, and should be even more safe for Engel.

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NY-18

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	59%	16%	4%	19%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	62%	38%
New District	62%	37%
Change	%	-1%

Finally we come to NY-18, which is now a hybrid Westchester, Long Island, and Bronx district. But mostly, it is a Long Island Sound district. despite helping to dilute competitive and Republican leaning territory on Long Island, this new NY-18 is actually very slightly more Democratic than the previous version. From Nita Lowey’s home in Harrison (in Westchester County), the 18th travels down Interstate 95 and into the Bronx, where (after picking up some choice Democratic precincts), it crosses into Queens via the Throgs Neck and Bronx-Whiteside bridges. Via the Cross Island Parkway, NY-18 crosses into Nassau County, where it picks up suburbs around Glen Cove while skirting along the coast. It continues to skirt along the Long Island Sound into Suffolk County, where it picks up McCain voting Smithtown, keeping those voters out of NY-01 and NY-02. This district substantially different from the current NY-18, but Lowey should be fine – she previously represented part of the Bronx, and should feel quite at home in northern Long Island as well.

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Long Island

On Long Island, my goal was not just to safely eliminate GOP leaning NY-03, but to do so while simultaneously avoiding the creation of anything that Republicans would have a chance of winning in anything other than a very strong GOP wave year. Through creative line drawing, the least Democratic district on Long Island is now NY-01 (57% Obama), while all the other districts voted at least 60% for Obama. It would certainly be possible to draw more compact districts on Long Island, but I doubt it would be possible to draw districts that are much more compact but are all equally Democratic. I tried to maximize Democratic strength without touching anything beyond Queens, and I think I achieved that about as well as can be done.

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NY-01

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	75%	10%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	52%	48%
New District	57%	43%
Change	+5%	-5%

NY-01 swings 10 points Democratic, thanks to some help from Lowey in NY-18 (taking Smithtown) and Steve Israel in NY-02 (taking part of Brookhaven). To make up the population lost to those districts, NY-01 heads west along the barrier islands on the south of Long Island to pick up Democratic voters in Long Beach and the Rockaways. The result is a Democratic district rather than a swing district, though NY-01 could still be competitive under some conceivable circumstances.

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NY-02

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	79%	5%	2%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	56%	43%
New District	59%	40%
Change	+3%	-3%

That NY-02 helps NY-01 to become more Democratic does not necessarily mean that NY-02 has to become less Democratic. In fact, this version of NY-02 becomes a net of 6% more Democratic as well. It does so by ceding some of the more GOP friendly parts of Brookhaven to NY-05, and extending just a bit further into Nassau County to pick up strongly Democratic precincts around Hempstead. Steve Israel should have no trouble winning this district, even if Pete King were to attempt to run in it.

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NY-04

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	58%	19%	6%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	58%	41%
New District	61%	39%
Change	+3%	-2%

Remember, there’s no NY-03 on Long Island any more (it’s now Massa’s district), so we skip straight to NY-04. Like NY-01 and NY-02 before it, NY-04 becomes more Democratic. It does this even while taking a pretty big bite out of King’s old district. It does this by giving up the biggest McCain voting parts of the current NY-04 (around Garden City) to NY-09, while moving into Queens, picking up areas on the periphery of the current NY-06. I also sent a finger north for the purpose of picking up McCarthy’s home in Mineola, though I am not sure if I included the right precincts or not. Pete King should live in NY-06 now, but it would probably make the most sense for him to try running in this district, if he bothered to run at all. This would set up a McCarthy-King matchup which just happens to be rigged very much in McCarthy’s favor. With King out of the picture, there would be no Republican US Representatives left on Long Island.

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NY-05

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	53%	4%	22%	17%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	63%	36%
New District	61%	38%
Change	-2%	+2%

NY-05 becomes only modestly more Republican. It stretches all the way from Huntington in Suffolk County to Astoria in western Queens. If NY-05 were sent up to the Bronx instead of Astoria, it could actually be even more Democratic (and NY-07 could become a more purely Queens based district), but I decided against that on the grounds that there was really very little need to alter the basic arrangement of Crowley’s district. Ackerman should be just fine in this district, and in the unlikely event that King tries to run in NY-05, Ackerman should be able to easily beat him.

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NY-06

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	41%	50%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	89%	11%
New District	69%	31%
Change	-20%	+20%

NY-06 is really more of an NYC district, but I am including it under the Long Island heading because of the important role it plays in the demolition of Pete King’s district. NY-06 swings massively towards the GOP by a net of 40%, but is still an extremely safe Democratic district. In the east, NY-06 starts in the middle of Brooklyn, taking a nice big bite of African American voters from the heart of the current NY-10 and NY-11. The reason for sending NY-06 into Brooklyn is to pick up as many black voters there as possible while also keeping NY-10 and NY-11 as VRA districts, for the purpose of leaving a larger number of African American Democratic voters free in Queens to help make NY-01, NY-04, NY-09 more Democratic.

Through a thin 1 precinct wide corridor, NY-06 enters Jamaica Bay, and comes out on the other side at JFK International Airport. From there, it picks up just enough African Americans to make the district black majority (but no more than are strictly necessary), reenters Jamaica Bay, and comes out at Inwood. It then picks up a few of the more Republican precincts in the Rockaways. It may or may not pick up Meeks’ home. If it does not include his home and it is necessary to include his home, it should be just a matter of switching a few precincts between NY-01 and NY-06 to fix the issue.

In Nassau County, the NY-06 heads steadily East along the South Shore of Long Island, picking up the most Republican precincts it can find along the way, often traveling through a nice narrow 1 precinct corridor. Naturally the most heavily Republican parts of Pete King’s old district (around Massapequa) are included in NY-06.

NY-06 continues east into Suffolk county, where it continues to pick up all of the most Republican precincts that it can find, most of which used to be in NY-03. The result is a black majority VRA district which just so happens to contain Pete King’s home and all of the strongest GOP parts of his old district. I don’t know how this could possibly have happened. Surely it was entirely coincidental, accidental, and unintended.

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New York City

New York City is something of a tangled mess, particularly in Brooklyn and Queens. To some extent that is unavoidable because of the requirements of the voting rights act. But in some cases I went beyond that (for example, by giving NY-13 the most Democratic possible parts of Brooklyn) for partisan gain. Manhattan and the Bronx are relatively un-gerrymandered, because it is not really necessary to do so in order to make nearby districts more Democratic.

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NY-09

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	50%	8%	16%	19%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	55%	45%
New District	62%	37%
Change	+7%	-8%

NY-09 both helps out with making the Long Island seats more Demacratic and itself becomes more Democratic (or at least more Obama friendly). It is now a Queens-Nassau County seat rather than a Queens-Brooklyn seat. In Queens the district consists of much of the area around Jamaica, liberal Jewish areas around Forest Hills, and some other Democratic areas from the old NY-06 and NY-05. As mentioned previously, it crosses into Nassau County to pick up the most strongly Republican parts of the old NY-04. The Jewish population may have declined somewhat, but Weiner should be fine in this new district.

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NY-10

Incumbent: Ed Towns (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	28%	50%	3%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	91%	9%
New District	80%	19%
Change	-11%	+10%

I challenge you to tell me precisely what sort of serpentine monster NY-10 looks like. It meanders all around Brooklyn, picking up just enough African Americans to make it a black majority district, while also picking up all of the most Republican precincts that it can find. Ed Towns probably lives in this district. If not, it should be easy to draw him in.

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NY-11

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	28%	50%	3%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	91%	9%
New District	77%	22%
Change	-14%	+13%

Like NY-10, NY-11 is shamelessly gerrymandered, combining African American neighborhoods with Orthodox Jewish and McCain precincts, meandering as much as is necessary, and then meandering even more than that. Yvette Clarke should have no difficulty winning in this district.

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NY-12

Incumbent: Nydia Velázquez (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	22%	7%	16%	51%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	86%	13%
New District	75%	24%
Change	-9%	+11%

Hispanic population growth has been high enough that it is very easy to meet the VRA requirements for NY-12. The district no longer has to cross into Manhattan and no longer has to go as much into Brooklyn – this district is now mostly in Queens. There is also enough room to spare for it to pick up a pretty good helping of less Democratic and predominantly white precincts from Anthony Weiner and Gary Ackerman without lowering the Hispanic percentage too much. Velázquez remains completely safe.

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NY-13

Incumbent: Michael McMahon (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	64%	9%	6%	19%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	49%	51%
New District	62%	37%
Change	+13%	-14%

NY-13 still includes all of Staten Island. It still crosses the Verrazano Narrows bridge to get to Brooklyn. But from there, it heads due north, through Sunset Park and towards the area around Carroll Gardens. The Brooklyn portion of the district is now very heavily Democratic (90% for Obama), and that makes the district as a whole pretty safely Democratic. As it turns out, it is not even necessary to send NY-13 into Manhattan in order to swing NY-13 27 points in the Democratic direction, from a McCain district to a 62% Obama district. All you have to do is mix up which bit of Brooklyn Staten Island is combined with.

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NY-07

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	44%	13%	7%	32%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	79%	20%
New District	76%	24%
Change	-3%	+4%

NY-07 remains a Queens-Bronx hybrid district. The Triborough bridge connects the pieces. Though some areas (e.g. Astoria and Greenpoint from NY-14) are new, much of the district is basically the same. Crowley himself could live in either NY-05, NY-12, or NY-07, but if he does not live in NY-07, it would be easy to draw him in. Regardless, he is safe.

I should also note that it is quite easy to turn NY-07 into a plurality Hispanic or even a majority Hispanic district, without even touching NY-12 or using Red Hook/Sunset Park (now in NY-13), simply by exchanging some territory with some combination of NY-14 (the Lower East Side), NY-16 (pretty much any part of the district), and/or NY-15 (by either heading into Northern Manhattan directly or by pushing NY-16 further into Manhattan). Though Crowley might be able to win such a district in a Democratic primary, it would not really be “incumbent protection” for him. But it would be good for Hispanic voting rights, and there will very probably be controversy over how NY-07 is redistricted, and how the Hispanic population is dealt with.

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NY-08

Incumbent: Jerold Nadler (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	58%	4%	20%	14%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	74%	26%
New District	68%	32%
Change	-3%	+4%

NY-08 remains a Manhattan/Brooklyn hybrid, though only 1/7 of the district is in Manhattan, while 6/7 are in Brooklyn. Even without the Manhattan part of the district, NY-08 voted 61% for Obama. Because Jerold Nadler lives in the Upper West Side, he unfortunately no longer lives in his district. I would suggest that he think about moving to Brooklyn. This is the only case where I drew a Democratic incumbent out of their district. Other than that, Nadler is fine. His district is a little bit less Democratic, but he is in no danger.

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NY-14

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	65%	4%	15%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	78%	21%
New District	80%	19%
Change	+2%	-2%

Maloney’s NY-14 contracts entirely within Manhattan and becomes slightly more Democratic.

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NY-15

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	29%	30%	4%	35%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	93%	6%
New District	91%	8%
Change	-2%	+2%

NY-15 gives up heavily Hispanic parts of northern Manhattan to the 16th district, and extends southwards into the upper West Side. This reduces the Hispanic population a bit, and though it is still a plurality Hispanic district, these changes probably slightly increase effective African American “control” of the district. If the ethics issues are cleared up, Rangel is safe. If not, it’s possible he faces trouble in a Democratic primary.

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NY-16

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	5%	26%	2%	65%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	95%	5%
New District	94%	6%
Change	-1%	+1%

NY-16 extends into northern Manhattan, but otherwise remains firmly anchored in the Bronx. This district becomes slightly more Republican, which is assuredly good news for John McCain and the Republican Party, and bad news for Jose Serrano. How can Serrano be expected to win when there is a full 17% (relative) percent increase in the number of Republican voters in his district?