Tag: New York

After seeing the addition of partisan data for New York, I decided to try my hand at creating a 28-0 map of New York (well at least a map where Obama won 28 districts in 2008).

From the outset, there are a couple of assumptions that went into the design. 

1) Keep intact county lines as much as possible.
2) Make it difficult for Republicans to win the district.
3) Ignore homes of incumbents (both R and D)
4) I also did not match up existing district numbers with the map

The top level description of the map is that I succeeded. In western NY, I grouped counties in an East-West manner, splitting Buffalo and stretching those districts from the Finger Lakes to Lake Erie. In eastern NY, I grouped counties North/South with Scott Murphy's District going from the Canadian border to Dutchess County. On Long Island, I split NY 2 to go East-West across eastern Suffolk and Nassau counties. 

In the end, I created 28 districts Obama won, with only four district where Obama won with 51% of the vote or less.

 

Long Island

The goal for Long Island was to create three Democratic performing districts in Suffolk and Nassau counties. To that end I was successful,  however, there are two or three Districts that in the wrong year, could flip to the Republicans. However, since Democratic performance has been improving in this area, it is possible that demographic trends will preserve Democrats in this area.

CD 1: (blue) Suffolk – 83% White 8% Hispanic
52-47 Obama

CD 2: (green) Suffolk, Northern Nassau –  81% White 8% Hispanic
52-47 Obama

CD 3: (purple) Suffolk, Southern Nassau – 76% White 11% Hispanic
51-47 Obama

CD 4: (red) South and West Nassau – 65% White 15% Black 12% Hispanic
57-42 Obama

I admit I am not familiar with the actual New York City area to make an informed observation about these districts, but I do preserve a number of minority-majority districts. Only the Staten Island district may flip in a bad year.

CD 5: (yellow) South Queens – 22% White 49% Black 14% Hispanic
81-18 Obama

CD 6: Central Brooklyn – 6% White 73% Black 14% Hispanic
95-4 Obama

CD 7: (grey) Northern Queens –  42% White 27% Asian 18% Hispanic
65-33 Obama

CD 8: Northern Queens, Extends into Kings – 29% White 15% Asian 8% Black 43% Hispanic
74-25 Obama

CD 9: Northern Queens Bronx – 8% White 27% Black 5% Asian 56% Hispanic
90-8 Obama

CD 10: (magenta) Western Queens, Western King – 28% White 29% Black 30% Hispanic
87-11 Obama

CD 11: Southern Brooklyn – 57% White 18% Black 10% Asian 10% Hispanic
58-41 Obama

CD 12: Central/ West Manhattan – 70% White 6% Black 8% Asian 12% Hispanic
82-16 Obama

CD 13: Lower Manhattan/Brooklyn – 53% White 6% Black 17% Asian 18% Hispanic
77-21 Obama

CD 14: Staten Island/Brooklyn – 63% White 6% Black 10% Asian 17% Hispanic 51-47 Obama

CD 15: Harlem/East Side – 21% White 27% Black 45% Hispanic
90-8 Obama

CD 16: (green) Bronx/SE Yonkers – 19% White 30% Black 41% Hispanic
85-14 Obama

Rockland, Westchester area

 I have three districts extending out of New York City into Yonkers and Rockland and Westchester counties. This arrangement is similar to, but expands upon the current map of the area. where both NY 17 and NY 18 extend into the City. 

In the existing eastern most district, NY 18, Representative Lowey has consistently won with over 65% of the vote (Bush/Kerry 58%) – this performance may go down with this map's NY 20. However, this is necessary to strengthen (this map's) NY 18 (Hall), where Obama would have a more comfortable victory. 

CD 17: Bronx, W. Westchester, SE Rockland – 64% White 12% Black 15% Hispanic
61-37 Obama

CD 18: (yellow) Orange, S Sullivan, S Ulster, N Rockland, Poughkeepsie –  79% White 7% Black 9% Hispanic
54-44 Obama

CD 20: (pink) Putnam, E Westchester, E Bronx 89% White
53-44 Obama

Upstate NY

Upstate New York keeps counties intact and create nine districts where Democrats should be expected to win in most elections. However, in the right circumstances several districts could flip. However, I expect that no conservative Republican could win in these areas – especially with the trends in New England in support of Democrats.

Unlike the existing map, I took a more radical approach to dividing the districts, weakening the existing District around Albany (Tonko) and around Binghamton (Hinchey). I support Murphy and Owens, as well as take out Lee. However, this map does not respect the residence of incumbents as Owens and Murphy are placed in the same district as well as Maffei and Arcuri.  

CD 19: (ugly green) Franklin, Clinton, Essex, Washington, Rensselaer (-Rensselaer), Columbia, Dutchess (most) – 89% White
53-44 Obama 

This is Scott Murphy's current district. I help him by extending the district all the way to the Canadian border, and the Democratic leaning counties of Franklin and Clinton counties.

CD 21: (red) Warren, Saratoga, Albany, Greene, Delaware (most), NE. Ulster – 88% White 5% Black
56-42 Obama

I take the Tonko's Albany based district, and go North to Saratoga and then South into Delaware and Ulster counties. The district also includes the City of Rensselaer.

CD 22: (brown) Chautauqua, Cattaragus, Allegany, S. Steuben, Chemung, S. Tompkins, S. Broome, S Delaware, N. Sullivan (includes Binghamton and Ithica) – 89% White
51-46 Obama

Of all the districts that undergo a change, perhaps the most radical change is to Hinchey's district. The district now spans most of New York's southern border, but expands North to take in the city of Ithica. This district is perhaps the toughest to defend in a wave election, but the Democratic strongholds of Ithica and Binghamton should prevent a Republican from staying in office long.

CD 23: (light blue) N. Broome, Chenango, Madison, Ostego, Herkimer, Fulton, Montgonery, Schoharie, Fulton, Hamilton, Onodaga (part) – 90% White
52-46 Obama

This is the district I had the most fun drawing – as it streches across most of Central New York, connecting Syracuse and Schenectady and into the Binghamton suburbs. This is a Democrat performing district, but would vulnerable in a wave election.

CD 24: (purple) St. Lawrence, Jefferson, Lewis, Oneida, Oswego, Onodaga (part) 91% White
50-48 Obama

Because I was not concerend about where incumbents live, I was able to create a Democratic leaning district in Northern New York. The district extends into the Syracuse suburbs to preserve a Democratic lean. 

CD 25: Onodaga (Syracuse and S), Wayne, Cayuga, Seneca, Yates, N. Steuben, Schulyer, N. Tompkins, Cortland 90% White
52-46 Obama

With the City of Syracuse divided between the 23rd and 25th, this district expands westward. In a wave election, a Republican could take the district, but turnout in Syracuse should prevent that.

CD 26: (dark grey) Monroe (most), Orleans – 76% White 13% Black 5% Hispanic 58-40 Obama

I make the Rocester area whole -but add in the more conservative Orleans county.

The Buffalo area retains the exsiting split – but both then stretch Eastward to take some of the rural counties in Western NY. Obama still won each of the districts with over 53% of the vote.

CD 27: S and E Erie, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario – 85% White 10% Black 53-44 Obama

CD 28 – N Erie, Niagara, Genese, S Monroe – 84% White 8% Black 54-43 Obama

In conclusion, a 28-0 vote is possible, but because of the voting patterns in Central and Western NY, a 28-0 map will leave several Democrats vulnerable to a wave election, especially if one goal is compactness and the preservation of county borders. 

(This diary is cross-posted on the Swing State Project and the Albany Project.)

Using Dave’s Redistricting Application I have drawn a plan for the state of New York.  Already, 27 out of 29 Representatives are Democrats.  However, the state is set to lose one seat in the 2012 redistricting, and several current Democrats hold marginal districts.  

This plan tries to eliminate the remaining two Republicans.  NY-26, held by Christopher Lee in the western part of the state, is divided up among neighboring districts (and those districts themselves are drawn in a way which still favors Democrats) while Peter King’s district, NY-3 on Long Island, is made considerably more Democratic, whereby he will have a harder time getting re-elected.  At the same time, currently marginal districts, like NY-1, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-23 and NY-24 are made more Democratic.  NY-29, Eric Massa’s district, is renumbered NY-26 (as the 29th seat is eliminated because of reapportionment) and that district also becomes more Democratic.

Under the plan here, ALL districts in New York state voted by at least 54% for Obama and at most 45% for McCain.  This is possible because upstate New York (the area north of Westchester Co. and the less Democratic part of the state) voted approximately 54% for Obama, and 45% for McCain.  Therefore, it’s possible to create all districts in upstate which are 54% Obama/45% McCain (or 54/44 or 55/44) if one draws the lines correctly.  I have managed to do so, while at the same time paying attention to incumbent protection and keeping the districts relatively compact (it took a while to get it just right).  Long Island (Nassau and Suffolk Counties) only voted about 53/46 Obama/McCain, but by extending parts of some districts into New York City, it’s also possible to have all districts there at least 54/45 (in fact, only NY-1 and NY-3 are made to be 54/45; NY-2, NY-4 and NY-5 are all at least 57/42.  Staten Island-based NY-13 was, ofcourse, easy; all you have to do is combine parts of the current district with Manhattan.

I believe the 54/45 Obama/McCain margin for a safe Democratic district is applicable to New York.  If this were California, for example, I would not feel such a district safe at all.  But Obama’s improvement on John Kerry was not that high in New York, and in a few districts Obama actually performed the same as or marginally worse than Kerry (NY-3, NY-5, NY-9).  The other thing is that Democrats have managed to win districts in the state which are currently significantly less Democratic than the 54/45 margin: NY-1 (52/48 Obama/McCain), NY-13 (49-51), NY-19 (51/48), NY-20 (51/48), NY-23 (52/47), NY-24 (51/48), NY-29 (48/51).  I feel that if Democrats can win these marginal seats in the state, then any district that’s at least 54/45 should be safe.

Like with my redistricting plan for California, I include my “TTP” number here.  I feel that it’s a good measure relating to incumbent protection — something that has to be a significant factor in any realistic redistricting proposal.  (The “TTP” number is Territory Transfer Percentage, for lack of a better label.  It provides the percentage of the new district’s territory, in terms of population, that was formerly a part of the current district.  So, for example, in NY-7, the “TTP” is 77.  The proposed district contains much of the same territory as the current district, and 77% of the new district’s population was formerly a part of the old district; in other words, Joseph Crowley would be looking at a district where 77% of his new constituents are the same as his old constituents.)  I was aiming for a “TTP” score of at least 55 for each district, and was successful in all but two districts — NY-6, which loses a lot of territory in order to make the new NY-3 more Democratic, and the new NY-26, which combines much of Eric Massa’s current territory with parts of Chris Lee’s district and parts of Buffalo currently in Louise Slaughter’s NY-28.

Last but not least, this plan protects all minority-majority districts in the state.  The black percentage in several districts goes down a bit, but they are still drawn to ensure African-American representation.  (Demographic stats below include percentages for groups that total 10% or more of the population of a particular district).

MAP:

District 1:

Incumbent: Timothy Bishop

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 71; hispanic 17

TTP: 69

The district continues to encompass the eastern half of Long Island, albeit some areas are new to the district.  NY-1 is made more Democratic by taking out very Republican Smithtown and more marginal areas in Brookhaven and then adding very Democratic areas in Islip.

District 2:  

Incumbent: Steve Israel

Current District:  Obama 56; McCain 43

Proposed District:  Obama 57; McCain 42

Demographics: white 63; black 16; hispanic 13

TTP: 61

The district is made marginally more Democratic as the lines are redrawn.  The new district is centered on Huntington and Babylon in western Suffolk Co. but also branches out east to include parts of Islip and Brookhaven and west to include parts of Oyster Bay and Hempstead in Suffolk Co.

District 3:  

Incumbent: Peter King

Current District:  Obama 47; McCain 52

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 66; black 21

TTP: 70

Much of the district remains the same.  What makes the reconfigured district considerably more Democratic is an arm (approximately one-fourth of the new district’s population) that now extends into heavily African-American areas in Queens.

District 4:  

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy

Current District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Demographics: white 60; black 15; hispanic 13

TTP: 71

Remains similar to the current Nassau County district.  Some very Democratic areas in Hempstead are taken out to become part of the new NY-2.  To make up for the loss, NY-4 extends slightly into neighboring areas of Queens.  The result is a marginally more Democratic district.

District 5:  

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman

Current District:  Obama 63; McCain 36

Proposed District:  Obama 57; McCain 42

Demographics: white 48; asian 23; hispanic 23

TTP: 75

The new district continues to include most of the current territory in Queens and northern Nassau County.  It is extended eastward along the northern shore of Long Island, all the way to Smithtown.  The new lines drop the Democratic percentage, but at 57/42 Obama/McCain (and approximately 57/42 Kerry/Bush as well) the new district should be safe for us.

District 6:

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks

Current District:  Obama 89; McCain 11

Proposed District:  Obama 79; McCain 21

Demographics: black 45; white 22; hispanic 18; asian 10

TTP: 52

The new NY-6 contains most of the territory of the current NY-6.  Some African-American areas in the east are taken out to strengthen Long Island-based districts.  To make up for the loss, NY-6 extends west into African-American areas in Brooklyn.  The new NY-6 is 45% black versus 52% for the current district (using data from Dave’s Application, not the 2000 census figures, as the numbers have changed over the decade), but the next largest ethnic/racial group, whites, are only at 22% in the district, so an African-American Representative is basically assured here.

District 7:  

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley

Current District:  Obama 79; McCain 20

Proposed District:  Obama 79; McCain 21

Demographics: hispanic 39; white 30; black 14; asian 13

TTP: 77

Remains very similar to the current district which stretches across parts of Queens and the Bronx.  The largest ethnic/racial group here are Hispanics (at 42% in the current district and 39% under the proposed lines).

District 8:  

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 26

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 34

Demographics: white 69; asian 15; hispanic 10

TTP: 59

The new district contains much of the same territory as the current district — an interesting combination of very progressive areas in Manhattan and more conservative  parts of Brooklyn (large Orthodox Jewish population in that part of Brooklyn).

District 9:  

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner

Current District:  Obama 55; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 35

Demographics: white 48; asian 24; hispanic 20

TTP: 58

The new NY-9 is more compact than the current NY-9 in that it’s confined entirely to Queens.  The more conservative Orthodox Jewish areas in Brooklyn are taken out and the partisan numbers go up for the Democratic Party.

District 10:  

Incumbent: Edolphus Towns

Current District:  Obama 91; McCain 9

Proposed District:  Obama 84; McCain 15

Demographics: black 45; white 24; hispanic 22

TTP: 68

The new Brooklyn-based district is largely similar to the current one.  The black percentage goes down from 59% to 45% but, in circumstances similar to NY-6, continued representation by an African-American Congressman or Congresswoman is assured here.

District 11:  

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke

Current District:  Obama 91; McCain 9

Proposed District:  Obama 82; McCain 18

Demographics: black 47; white 34; hispanic 11

TTP: 76

See District 10 above.  The new district contains a vast majority of the current territory of NY-11.  The black percentage goes down from 56% to 47% but that is still enough to assure representation by an African-American.

District 12:  

Incumbent: Nydia Velázquez

Current District:  Obama 86; McCain 13

Proposed District:  Obama 86; McCain 13

Demographics: hispanic 45; white 25; asian 22

TTP: 85

The new district remains very similar to the current Hispanic-plurality one (the current district is about 47% Hispanic according to data in Dave’s Application, while the new one is a couple points less Hispanic).

District 13:

Incumbent: Michael McMahon

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 51

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Demographics: white 69; hispanic 13

TTP: 78

The new district combines all of Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn just over the Verrazano Bridge with very progressive areas in Manhattan (mostly the Upper West Side).  As you would guess, the Democratic percentage surges, even with less than a quarter of the new district’s territory coming out of Manhattan.

District 14:  

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney

Current District:  Obama 78; McCain 21

Proposed District:  Obama 81; McCain 18

Demographics: white 67; hispanic 14

TTP: 69

The new district is now confined entirely to Manhattan, as the Queens areas are taken out.  The district becomes marginally even more Democratic than the current progressive stronghold.

District 15:  

Incumbent: Charles Rangel

Current District:  Obama 93; McCain 6

Proposed District:  Obama 95; McCain 4

Demographics: hispanic 47; black 37; white 10

TTP: 63

New district is similarly centered on Harlem and other areas in northern Manhattan.  The district crosses over to encompass parts of the Bronx, and the African-American percentage goes up from 29% in the current district to 37% under the new lines (while the Hispanic percentage goes up slightly from 46% to 47%).

District 16:  

Incumbent: José Serrano

Current District:  Obama 95; McCain 5

Proposed District:  Obama 95; McCain 5

Demographics: hispanic 66; black 28

TTP: 95

Remains very, very similar to the current Bronx-based district.

District 17:

Incumbent: Eliot Engel

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Demographics: white 59; black 18; hispanic 16

TTP: 67

The new district includes much of the same territory in the Bronx, and Westchester and Rockland Counties.  Parts of the Bronx are detached while the district expands outward into Orange County (this is geographically necessary, because of population shifts between New York City and the rest of the state).  The new district becomes a little less Democratic, but is still very safe.

District 18:  

Incumbent: Nita Lowey

Current District:  Obama 62; McCain 38

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37

Demographics: white 63; hispanic 19

TTP: 95

Westchester-based NY-18 remains very similar in shape and partisan preference to the current district.

District 19:  

Incumbent: John Hall

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 74; hispanic 12

TTP: 62

The new district NY-19 becomes more Democratic as areas in Orange and Dutchess Counties are rearranged.

District 20:  

Incumbent: Scott Murphy

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 88

TTP: 68

The district remains similar to the current one, but is made more Democratic, as more Republican areas (Greene Co. and part of Delaware Co.) are taken out, while part of Albany is added.

District 21:  

Incumbent: Paul Tonko

Current District:  Obama 58; McCain 40

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 87

TTP: 67

The new district continues to be centered on the Albany area.  It becomes less Democratic as it expands north and west into more conservative territory, but remains a safe seat.

District 22:  

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey

Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Demographics: white 85

TTP: 68

The new NY-22 is similar in many ways to the current one.  Progressive areas around   Ithaca/Cornell University are taken out to shore up the neighboring NY-24, but the Democratic percentage here still remains safe.

District 23:  

Incumbent: Bill Owens

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 89

TTP: 69

The new district combines the more Democratic parts of the current NY-23 with Democratic territory around Rochester (as well as GOP-leaning but less-populated territory in Monroe Co., east of Rochester).  The overall Democratic percentage goes up by a few points.

District 24:  

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 86

TTP: 58

Arcuri had a close call during his 2008 re-election bid, so the more Democratic district created by this plan should help.

District 25:  

Incumbent: Daniel Maffei

Current District:  Obama 56; McCain 43

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 86

TTP: 56

NY-25 continues to include most of Syracuse and Onondaga Co. (although parts have been taken out to shore up the neighboring NY-24), and stretches west towards the suburbs of Rochester.

District 26:  

Incumbents: Eric Massa, Christopher Lee

Current District:  Obama 48; McCain 51 (current NY-29); Lee’s district, current NY-26, is Obama 46; McCain 52

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 79; black 14

TTP: 44

This new district combines much of Massa’s territory in NY-29 (44% of the new district), parts of Lee’s (22% of the new district) and the part of Erie Co. that is currently in NY-28 (31% of the new district), with a small remainder coming out of the current NY-27.  It stretches from Massa’s home in Corning to encompass parts of Buffalo currently in NY-28.  Lee’s home is put into the new NY-26 but his district is split among neighboring ones (22% to the new NY-26 here, 40% to NY-28, and the remainder split between

NY-27, NY-25 and NY-23).

District 27:  

Incumbent: Brian Higgins

Current District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 45

Demographics: white 88

TTP: 87

This Buffalo-based district remains very similar to the current configuration.

District 28:  

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter

Current District:  Obama 69; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 55; McCain 44

Demographics: white 75; black 14

TTP: 56

The new district looks quite similar on a map (stretching from Rochester to Niagara Falls) but the Democratic percentage goes down as parts of Buffalo are taken out.  Nevertheless the seat remains safe for a Democrat.

So that’s my plan for New York.  Thank you for any comments or suggestions.

“Dede Scozzafava, the GOP nominee in a key upcoming House special election, is running dangerously low on campaign cash, according to several GOP sources familiar with her spending and fundraising.”

Interestingly the article goes on to say that the RNC has sent only two staffers and hasn’t contributed a cent to the race. Owens is outspending her 12-1. Even Hoffman has spent more. The NRCC is trying to make up the difference but even they have been overtaken by the DCCC.

“Despite a recent poll showing the GOP nominee with a 7-point lead over Owens, the spending disparity has many Republicans downbeat about her prospects.”

I have to say I’m surprised at this. You would think the RNC would be flooding cash into the district to try and get a clean sweep of all the big races on November 3. Politico suggests they are concentrating on the gubernatorial races but that seems dubious at best. Maybe they just don’t want her to win. I know I don’t.

http://www.politico.com/news/s…

UPDATE

The Rothenberg Political Report moves the race from Pure Toss-Up to Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo…

Last night, Markos wrote that Republican Dede Scozzafava was “the most liberal candidate” in the 23rd congressional district race.

This doesn’t surprise. A lot of people, including people here in New York, have made the same argument. Part of it has to do with a lack of research on Scozzafava. The other half of it is a lack of information on the Democratic candidate Bill Owens, who conservatives call “liberal” and some progressives like Markos have called a “Blue Dog.”

After reading Markos’ post multiple times, it seems he uses the following as important points for his “liberal” labeling of Scozzafava.  

– She has been endorsed in the past by the very progressive Working Families Party.

– She is pro-choice and pro-marriage equality, which puts her at odds with the conservatives in the Republican Party.

– She voted to raise taxes when budgets required it.

First, those three points. The Working Families Party does endorse Republicans and allow them to run on their line. It happens, but they are more likely to back a Democratic candidate. Living in New York, my state senator is George Maziarz. He has been endorsed by the Working Families Party in the past because of his connections to people within the WFP.

For Scozzafava, being backed by the WFP can be contributed to a few things. She ran unopposed in 2008 and was not on the Working Families line when she ran for re-election in 2006. She also was not on the line in the 2002 general election. The only times since redistricting in 2002 that she appeared on the WFP line was in 2004 and 2008. In both elections, she ran unopposed. Therefore, the WFP endorsements were more by default than anything. It’s not as if she had to fight for those endorsements with another candidate.

The pro-choice and pro-marriage equality positions are very good and is a breath of fresh air for a Republican. But just as we don’t like it when Republicans try to define us based on social issues, we should not be guilty of the same when it comes to determining whether someone is progressive or not. Is she progressive on these issues? No doubt. But don’t judge a book by its cover.

The last point of Markos: She voted to raise taxes when budgets required it. In New York, that can be seen as a good and/or bad thing. There are good taxes and fees, bad taxes and fees and others that are somewhere in between. Any good progressive in New York will tell you that not all taxes are good and that not all taxes are bad. There is a middle ground. The problem in New York is that we have had too many regressive taxes and not enough progressive taxation. So giving Scozzafava credit for being liberal on this is misguided for the reasons I have shown.

But aside from Markos’ points, I also wanted to address some of the past votes Scozzafava has cast in the Assembly .

– An important issue for progressives in New York has been Rockefeller Drug Law Reform. A bill (A.6085) was passed in the Assembly and a deal was reached with both houses to reform the broken drug laws that led to extreme sentences for some of the most minor offenses. The roll call vote shows that Scozzafava voted against these reforms.

– Earlier this year, the Assembly passed a comprehensive gun package to combat gun violence and put laws in place to provide for better tracking of guns and provide for more accountability. The package includes 13 bills that were passed in the Assembly. Of those 13 bills, Scozzafava voted for only one. That bill was A.7733 and its purpose is to “Authorizes courts to revoke firearms license and seize the weapons of certain individuals.” Essentially, if the person is a threat to the public, courts could take away the firearms license and weapons of that person.

It is safe to say that Scozzafava is pro-gun and clearly anti-gun control of any kind. (I would give her credit for the single “Yea” vote, but it was a unanimous vote in the Assembly. Every Republican voted for it.)

Also, keep in mind that the package came after the shootings in Binghamton, which was a national news story and led to immediate action in the Assembly.

– Scozzafava’s record on the environment is mixed, at best. She voted against the Bigger Better Bottle Bill, but voted for the Green Jobs bill that was unanimously passed in the Assembly. The Assembly passed a package of environmental bills earlier this year. Of the 14 bills included in the package, Scozzafava voted for six of the bills and against eight of them. These were bills that were supported by progressives and the Democratic conference in the Assembly.

– Scozzafava voted against the Farmworkers Bill of Rights that passed the Assembly. This was seen as a pro-labor and pro-worker bill to support farm laborers who face unpleasant conditions in some instances.

– Voted against a bill that would provide additional compensation for police officers in New York City that use a foreign language in the course of their duties. She also voted against legislation that would give the attorney general jurisdiction to investigate and prosecute police misconduct.

– Voted against regulating the use of “no-knock” warrants and monitoring the use of all search warrants.

– Cast a vote against the 2010 Campaign Finance Reform Act, which would provide “for optional partial public financing of certain election campaigns in this state.” (Here is more on this legislation she voted against.)

– Voted against a bill that would require restaurants (with 15 or more outlets in the U.S.) to post the caloric information of menu items. Also voted against a bill banning trans fats in restaurants.

– Voted against legislation that would strengthen New York’s laws against unfair debt collection practices. Also voted against “legislation requiring debt collection firms to provide consumers a written “Debtor’s Bill of Rights” along with their initial debt collection communication.”

– Voted against expanding foreclosure protections. This bill included protections for tenants in property that is being foreclosed.

– Among the many areas, one area that Scozzafava seems to have a consistent record of voting “no” in is housing. This year, the Assembly has passed 20 pieces of legislation related to housing. Of those 20 bills, Scozzafava voted against several of them. The bills she voted against include: A rent increase cap, rent increases linked to inflation rate, Section 8 housing being included in rent regulation, landlord rental unit recovery, affordable housing preservation, excessive rent increase shield and expansion of the Loft Law.

The reality is this: When people say “don’t judge a book by its cover”, you should take their advice. The “cover” on Scozzafava was that she was this progressive Republican because she was backed by the WFP, supported a woman’s right to choose and has been a supporter of marriage equality. But the “book” tells the whole story (as it usually does). Scozzafava has a few positions that are more liberal (on abortion and marriage equality) but most of her positions are, at best, moderate-to-conservative. More often than not, however, she is a conservative.

One more thing: This statement on Scozzafava’s website came after President Barack Obama’s health care address a couple of weeks ago. One of the ideas she pushes? Tort reform. Not exactly the progressive approach to solving the health care crisis, but it’s one of the first (if not THE first) things brought up by Scozzafava.

The conclusion I draw from looking over numerous pieces of legislation is that Scozzafava on most issues is nothing more than your average Assembly Republican. Most of the votes that she did support the Democratic (or progressive) positions came when the whole Assembly voted unanimously for a bill. Scozzafava’s conservative positions are not reflected in the mainstream media, where she is labeled a “liberal” because of her stances on two social issues that, while important, should never define any candidate and should never be the sole indicator of a candidate’s ideology.

I see Scozzafava as someone who is far from the Glenn Becks of the world. But that doesn’t mean she is not conservative. The modern-day conservative is a different breed, but a lot of what Scozzafava stands for resembles an old school conservative. At best, she’s a moderate with conservative leanings. At worst, she’s a conservative Republican whose liberal stances on two social issues have given her an inaccurate label.

Would she be a Susan Collins-type, as Markos suggested? Probably not. Her record has shown that she hasn’t really been willing to buck the GOP party line on big issues (unless the whole GOP goes along with it). There are worse Republicans than Scozzafava, but she isn’t someone I would depend on to cross party lines and vote on a Democratic (and/or progressive) issue.

Five weeks from election day and Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R) leads Bill Owens (D) by seven points with Doug Hoffman (C) trailing in the first independent poll of the special election to replace Army Secretary John McHugh in the House of Representatives for New York’s 23rd District.

The topline numbers from the Siena College Research Institute (LV, 9/27-29, MoE 3.9%) are:

Scozzafava 35%

Owens 28%

Hoffman 16%

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedf…

“This is a wide open race. One in five voters is currently undecided. Add to that the fact that one-third of Scozzafava’s current supporters and one-quarter of Owens’s current supporters say they are not very certain of their choice and that they very well may change their minds between now and Election Day.”

I think it fair to say this is a total tossup, particulary with the better known Scozzafava having such a small lead. I will update with more thoughts when I’ve poured over some of the internals.

UPDATE

Looking at the 2008 presidential race in the district we find Obama won Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Madison, Oswego and St. Lawrence counties. McCain carried Fulton, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lewis and Oneida.

The three-way makes it difficult to extrapolate but Scozzafava leads big in the West (which is where her Assembly district is located) matching McCain in Jefferson and Lewis counties but also in St. Lawrence where Obama won big.

On the contrary Owens leads in some of the central counties she represents and which McCain won, namely Madison, Oneiga and Oswego.

The good news is they are tied in places Obama won big – Clinton, Essex and Franklin. As andgarden mentions in the comments Obama is popular in the district so if people there get to know Owens and like what they hear I think there is a good chance he can take this one.

On the flipside McCain did well in Fulton and Hamilton so Owens is overperforming there though I suspect that has more to do with Hoffman taking conservative votes.

UPDATE 2

Favorables are interesting. Scozzafava clocks in at 33-20-47, favorable, unfavorable, no opinion. Hopefully Hoffman’s kamikaze act helps make people form a negative opinion.

Owens is at 23-12-64 so significantly more room to grow. Hoffman at 16-13-71.

Top issues, economy and health care, unsuprisingly, and the candidates are split.

McHugh’s endorsement would be key according to the numbers but if Obama comes out for Owens is it at all likely he will oppose his new boss? Interesting.

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

This redistricting map has really been a long time coming, but trying to match up the 36,000 census blocks of NYC and the 20,000 blocks of Nassau County (among many, many others) with a precinct and creating a consolidated population-political data file tends to take a while. But unquestionably, I also think this is my best map yet. I used 2008 population estimates by city/town, projected forward to 2010. I also worked painstakingly hard for population equality, which I think is evident in that the total deviation for all 28 districts is 86, or 0.012% of a single district.

At a whopping 26-3, our NY delegation is already pretty maxed out. With the loss of a district in 2010, there’s a good opportunity to consolidate and create what could possibly be a 27-1 delegation. I chose to do this by eliminating John McHugh’s district and then employing some old-fashioned cracking of Nassau County to defeat Peter King. Side goals included strengthening Massa, Arcuri, Murphy, Hall, and McMahon, while preserving VRA districts for Meeks, Towns, Clarke, Velazquez, Rangel, and Serrano.

My district maps later. First, some eye candy:

I’m sure there’s enough in these maps to make for its own diary, but that’s for another time….

(Sidenote: Yes, I am sending my dataset to Dave and David, so hopefully this can be incorporated into DRA. I do have a ‘tutorial’ on how I do my redistricting where I used Wisconsin as an example that I will hopefully post shortly.)

Now, here’s my map:

Starting upstate:

As is the case with a lot of my districts, I took some inspiration from the districts of yesteryear (or… 1993-2003). This would still be Louise Slaughter’s district, recentered around Monroe County (with an arm to grab Geneseo out of Livingston County). The percentage drop seems daunting at first (down from 68.47%), and there’s not a good reason for Buffalo and Rochester to be packed into the same district. Anyways, Slaughter is familiar with the area and would be solid for any Rochester Democrat should Slaughter choose to retire.

I think a lot of times, we overestimate the Democratic strength of Brian Higgins’ district – he was only elected in 2004, and Obama only scored 54.19% here. I’ll admit, I shuffled around this district quite a bit, with it going from Buffalo north instead of south. We add all of Niagara and Orleans Counties, with a sliver of Monroe for population balancing, but we do retain all of Buffalo’s South District, which Higgins represented in the Buffalo Common Council before getting elected to Congress. From this we get slightly more than a 3% boost to 57.52%; this should be safe for a long time to come.

Granted, I shifted around Massa’s district quite a bit too, with it now going to Buffalo instead of Rochester. I did this in the interest of centering the 28th in Monroe County and leaving room for the sprawling 23rd. However, I think it retains its Southern Tier character (roughly 40%). The nastier bits of Steuben and Allegany counties are carved out. The Democratic boost from the remaining parts of Buffalo doesn’t hurt either, leaving this district 5 points better at 53.52%.

This district doesn’t substantially differ from Maffei’s current version, though I do take out a chunk of southern Onondaga county to make room for the 24th to pass through. Since we’re dismantling the current 23rd, the section of Oswego County begins to pick up some of the pieces. Still centered on Syracuse and DeWitt, this district has a marginal improvement of 0.2%, leaving it still a touch short of 56% Obama.

Tompkins County saved Arcuri from defeat in 2008, and this district helps on that front. It now incorporates all of Tompkins. Arcuri’s base in Utica remains as well, though the rest of Oneida County is surprisingly hostile to Democrats. Eastern Oswego and western Jefferson Counties are added, again to compensate for the elimination of the current 23rd. Overall, this district improves modestly to 52.08% from 50.33%. Obama only narrowly lost the district outside of Tompkins, but Ithaca is really what anchors the district.

I’ll be the first to say it, this district is pretty disgustingly drawn. Communities of interest went flying out the window – the only thing the parts of this district have in common are their Republican political dispositions. We go from the Buffalo suburbs (Clarence, Lancaster), across Western New York and the Southern Tier to near Binghamton, through to the Capital District (Schenectady, Saratoga) and also north to the Adirondacks and even parts of Rome. The 24th and its misshapen bird form was bad, but I really challenge you to tell me what the 23rd looks like.

With Ithaca out of the picture shoring up the 24th, and with the 23rd cutting off any access route, I had to scrounge for Democratic votes to keep Hinchey at a comparable level. We get a vaguely frog-like district (facing east), in my opinion. One leg is for Binghamton, another for the less-Republican areas not in the 23rd and for population balance. Retained is Hinchey’s base in Ulster and Sullivan counties, with arms for Newburgh and Middletown in Orange County. Also of note is the string along the Hudson in Dutchess County, from Red Hook through Poughkeepsie down to Beacon. The lack of Ithaca still shows, but with some effort, there’s only a 0.7% drop.

With problematic Schoharie County out of the way, Tonko’s 21st can look to some greener (bluer?) pastures. Mostly, this is just some housekeeping down in Otsego, Delaware, and Greene counties. Tonko’s residence in Amsterdam stays in, as well as the entirety of Albany County, and Rensselaer and Troy. The net is a very marginal (less than 0.1%) improvement.

You look at this district and you ask, can this really be called Scott Murphy’s and not Dede Scozzafava’s district? I say yes for two reasons. First, Murphy lives in the northern part of the current 20th, which is also included here. Second, slightly more than half the population is from the current 20th, including Saratoga Springs. Tedisco did quite well in Saratoga, but the more Republican parts are stripped out for the 23rd. For our efforts, we’re rewarded with a 2.5% boost to 53.2% from 50.7%.

We’re getting into Westchester now, so I’m guessing you’ll want a more detailed map:

John Hall’s district also gets quite the makeover. However, it retains Hall’s residence in Dover Plains and most of Dutchess County, as well as the Democratic-leaning parts of Putnam and Cortlandt/Peekskill in Westchester. There’s also an arm into Rockland, nabbing the heavily Democratic parts of Ramapo town. Notable removals include the heavily Republican towns of Monroe in Orange County (including Kiryas Joel village) and Carmel in Putnam County. In order to accomodate the 22nd, the 19th doesn’t get as much of a boost, only to 52.3%, up 1.6%.

To help Hall, Nita Lowey’s district picks up the eastern half of Putnam County. With Hall’s district shifted northward, most of Westchester gets put here, all the way from Somers to White Plains to New Rochelle and the Bronx line, with a nice arm into Yonkers to hold the Democratic percentage up. There’s still a 2.5% drop though, thanks to Carmel. Not that Lowey has to worry.

Finally, we’ve broken the city barrier. But first, the district takes in a lot of Rockland and Orange counties that didn’t get lumped into the 19th. There are some pretty Republican (or at least anti-Obama) pockets in the towns of Monroe and Ramapo – most likely owing to the Orthodox Jewish communities in Kiryas Joel, Monsey, and Viola. I do think there’s a good chance they’d vote for Engel, though. In Westchester, I kept the riverside villages of Hastings-on-Hudson, Dobbs Ferry, and Irvington whole (though the district still jumps the Tappan Zee). Yonkers and Mount Vernon are still here, as well as Wakefield and Woodlawn in the Bronx. Engel still lives here, though the district is less Bronx-centric (and yes, 10% less Democratic at 62.0%) than before.

Now that we’re in the city, here’s a map of the city districts.

She’s still Jenny from the Block, and this is pretty much the old 16th district centered on SoBro the South Bronx. More than 95% of the new and old 16ths overlap, and the result shows at 95% Obama. From Mott Haven through to Fordham, this district remains heavily Hispanic at 63.04%.

I’m not sure when the tradition of putting Rikers into the 15th was started, but it’s been that way since at least 1993, and I’ve kept it that way. Again, the vast majority of the district is the same, from Inwood to Washington Heights to Harlem, Spanish Harlem, and Morningside Heights. I tried for clean lines in the city: the border with the 14th remains straight on 96th street. The west side is a bit harder for population balancing. Still ridonkulously Democratic, giving the 16th a run for its money. (Note how Obama got 97.26% in the 70th Assembly District. That’s… almost Detroit-level.) Still plurality-Hispanic.

Again, not much different here either. Maloney keeps all of Central Park and the East Side of Manhattan through to Houston Street. Again, I tried for clean lines, with Central Park West/8th Ave., then 7th Ave. (with a bump-out in Midtown to balance population). On the Queens side, still essentially the same areas of Astoria and Ravenswood, though Long Island City/Hunters Point is shifted to the 12th. Again no news here, just a slight bump up from 78.2%.

McMahon keeps his Staten Island-centric district. I tried to make the Brooklyn parts as Democratic as possible, losing Dyker Heights, Bensonhurst, and Gravesend in favor of Democratic Coney Island. A 2.4% boost to 51.2% results, though I don’t think McMahon was really in any danger.

Really, nothing new here either, except we’ve shifted it from plurality to majority Hispanic. Same neighborhoods, from Sunset Park to Red Hook, Loisaida, Greenpoint, and Bushwick. A notable shift is that Chinatown is removed and Williamsburg is added, dropping Obama’s performance by 1% (to a still-astronomical 85%).

Not much new here either, still a central-Brooklyn based district for Yvette Clarke centered in Flatbush, Prospect Park, Park Slope, and Crown Heights. The district does move farther south into Ocean Parkway though, mostly to relieve stress on the 9th. Still majority-Black, though the southward shift lowers the Democratic percentage by 2 points.

Same story for Ed Towns, with an arcing district from Brooklyn Heights to Bed-Stuy, East New York, and south to Canarsie. Again a slight southward expansion to boost the 9th. Still majority Black, a slight drop to 88% Obama (oh the humanity).

Weiner was never in any danger, really, but it was just odd to have an only 55% Obama district in the city. (IMO, Staten Island doesn’t count.) The district becomes more Queens-centric, while retaining Weiner’s home in Forest Hills, as well as taking in Middle Village, Maspeth, Kew Gardens, parts of Ridgewood, and Ozone Park. Same deal in Brooklyn, keeping Gerritsen, Sheepshead Bay, and Brighton Beach. It does lose parts of Ocean Parkway and Borough Park, picking up slightly-less Republican Gravesend. The boost helps, bringing this to 59% Obama, up roughly 5%.

Nadler’s district, again, is mostly unchanged. Upper West Side, Chelsea, Greenwich Village, TriBeCa, SoHo, the FiDi, etc stay in the Manhattan parts. In Brooklyn, there’s Borough Park and Dyker Heights. Obama only scored 38% in the Brooklyn section. This is countered by the 84.8% Manhattan section, averaging out to 73.9% Obama (+0.2%).

Most of the creative districting in the city came in Queens, I think, and the 7th is a good example. The Bronx portion doesn’t change too much, except it stretches to the Hudson now that the 17th is more suburban. Otherwise, Co-op City, Pelham Bay, Soundview, and Parkchester stay in, jumping Long Island Sound at Throgs Neck. It takes in more suburban areas of Queens than before, including Whitestone and Beechhurst. Crowley does live in Woodside, but there’s an arm for that.

Gregory Meeks’ district gets quite the change as well, and becomes the first of three Nassau-Queens hybrid districts. The district remains centered on East Queens, though, from Jamaica and Ozone Park east to the Nassau line. In Nassau, we try to grab the most Republican parts in southwestern Hempstead, including Woodmere and Lawrence. Also of note is the shift of the entire Rockaway Peninsula (the western part of which is quite Republican) to the district. Broad Channel is also no longer split in two. Amazingly, the district is still majority-Black (just barely at 50.16% non-Hispanic-or-Latino Black). The Nassau parts do bring down the Democratic percentage 9.5% to 79.5%.

This district is pretty hideous, too. With a lot of suburban Queens in the 7th, the 5th can pick up more of the more-Democratic inner neighborhoods of Queens. So, we get a district that stretches from Elmhurst and Jackson Heights to Huntington. Again, harking back to the olden days, the district grabs out some choice precincts in Suffolk County, relieving pressure on the 1st and 2nd. In Nassau, it keeps Great Neck and Port Washington, but also adds Old Westbury, Syosset, and Glen Cove. In Suffolk, we avoid Huntington (the hamlet), since Steve Israel lives there, but we do get Cold Spring Harbor and Fort Salonga, all the way to the Huntingtown-Smithtown line. All this results in a 2% drop to 61.2% Obama, buoyed by the 74% Democratic section of Queens. Regardless, Ackerman will be fine.

Here’s the third of the Queens-Nassau districts. The current 4th gets its Democratic strength from Uniondale and Hempstead, but those would fit well in a newly Democratic 3rd district. Thus, two prongs into Queens, one into Briarwood and one into Flushing, which meet in Briarwood. In Nassau, this district includes closer-in Democratic areas like Elmont and Valley Stream balanced by swing areas like Mineola and extremely Republican Garden City. In total, the Queens section again anchors the district, leaving it at 58.2% Democratic, up 0.2%.

My favorite district, really. You might look at the map and say… is that really an improvement? Yes, Massapequa, Bethpage, and Levittown are still here, as Amityville, Copaigue, and West Islip. However, in picking up Uniondale, Hempstead, and Freeport in the Town of Hempstead, and parts of Syosset, Jericho, and Plainview, the Democratic performance improves quite a bit. It would have been higher had I not included the South Shore in Suffolk County and instead grabbed Plainview, but I wanted to hold the 2nd constant. All in all, up 6.6% to 54.0% Democratic. Perfect for someone like Dave Mejias who can keep the margins in Massapequa down.

Steve Israel’s district is mostly unchanged, still centered on the towns of Huntington, Islip, and Babylon, including Melville, Dix Hills, and Ronkonkoma. It also takes in a small section of Nassau (parts of Woodbury, Plainview, and Old Bethpage), keeping the Democratic performance up. Instead of Republican Smithtown, the district takes out Patchogue, Holtsville, and Farmingville from the town of Crookhaven. Democratic performance is essentially unchanged from 56.13%.

Lastly, we arrive at the 1st district, again, mostly unchanged. It contains the Hamptons, Southold, Riverhead, all of Smithtown, and most of Brookhaven. Obama’s performance is up just a tad to 51.52%.

And there we have it, my 27-1 plan for New York. Comments and questions (and witty remarks!) welcome, as always. (That tutorial is coming up, I promise!)

This is my first diary since July 24th. This time, I am redistricting New York assuming the Democrats still control the New York State Senate. I drew this map assuming New York will lose one vote. I tried to create a 27-1 Democratic delegation. I decided 28-0 was too risky but I made the 1 Republican district competitive. I know 2010 should be a Republican year but 2012 will not be because Obama should be reelected. He will probably rebound like Bill Clinton did in 1995 and win reelection easily. Back to redistricting: even though the 6th district is no longer Black majority, I made two Hispanic majority districts. I also increased the 5th district’s minority population so a minority candidate will probably elected when Ackerman retires. In this diary, I am going to focus mostly on LI and Upstate Democrats because NYC Democrats are pretty safe. I gerrymandered Downstate New York a bit but in Upstate, I tried not to split counties except for population and contiguity. This is what my rankings mean: Safe means safe for the incumbent party, Likely means currently safe but possibly competitive, Lean means competitive but not a nail biter, Toss Up means a nail biter. Here are the maps.

District 1 Tim Bishop (D) (Dark Blue)

Even though Bishop has won easily recently, he could eventually face a real challenge. That is why I sent a finger to take in some heavily Hispanic areas. That should help protect him. Besides that, his district does not change much. Obama probably won 53% of the vote here. Racial stats are 5% Black, 13% Hispanic and 77% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

District 2 Steve Israel (D) (Green)

I weakened Israel a bit by adding the white northern and southern parts of Suffolk County. Unless he faces a tough challenger, he should win. Obama probably won 53% of the vote here. Racial stats are 7% Black, 13% Hispanic and 73% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

District 3 Peter King (R) (Purple on Long Island)

With the exclusion of white areas in northern Nassau County, the inclusion of heavily Democratic Hempstead and putting 8% of the district in Queens, this district appears to be unfavorable territory for King. Even though I include King’s base, the Democratic areas I included should offset margins from his base. I wonder if King will agree with me and run in the 2nd district instead of retiring. I bet Israel can hold off King. I know that I kept most of King’s base here but since I raised the minority population alot, King should still be in jeopardy. I am not too familiar with local candidates in Nassau County so if anyone can tell me about some, that would be great. I think Obama won 55%-56% of the vote here. Racial stats are 19% Black, 16% Hispanic and 60% White (down from 86% White in the old district.) Status is Likely Democrat if King retires, Lean Democrat if he runs.

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District 4 Carolyn McCarthy (D) (Red)

I changed her district around a lot so King would think that her district is too Democratic to win. With the inclusion of some Queens neighborhoods, I am not too worried about McCarthy’s chances. Obama probably won 56%-58% of the vote here. Racial stats are 7% African American, 12% Hispanic, 11% Asian and 66% White. Status is Likely Democrat if King runs, Safe Democrat if he does not run.

District 5 Gary “Caroline Kennedy is no more qualified to be president than Sarah Palin” Ackerman (D) (Yellow)

Reducing the white population from 44% to 37% was partly motivated by my personal opinions and that minority groups will try to get more minorities elected to Congress. I had to remove white areas, put them in the 9th and snake the district closer to Manhattan. Unless Ackerman faces a strong challenge, he should keep his seat because whites are a plurality. To protect other districts such as the 7th and the 12th, I could not increase his minority population much more. Besides the Kennedy/ Palin issue, this guy is pretty Conservative. He submitted H.Con.Res.362; a bill which is basically declares war on Iran. Racial stats are 25% Hispanic, 30% Asian and 37% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 6 Gregory Meeks (D) (Teal)

Meeks’s district is no longer Black majority but they still make up the majority of the primary voters. Minority groups might sue but Charlie Rangel whose district is 30% Black seems pretty content with his district. Blacks are the definite plurality so Meeks has no worries. I sent his district into LI to weaken Peter King. Racial stats are 46% Black, 18% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 18% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 Joseph Crowley (D) (Gray)

Personally, I have no problem with Crowley but his district was the best suited to make Hispanic majority. Even though they do not make up the majority of the voters, this district will probably elect a Hispanic when he retires. Racial stats are 22% Black, 50% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 18% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 8 Jerrold Nadler (D) (Purple)

Nadler does not actually live in this district. He lives in the Upper West side but he will probably run here because it contains most of his old district. The Brooklyn parts of the district lean Democratic but the Manhattan part of this district raises its Democratic percentage. Racial stats are 9% Hispanic, 21% Asian and 65% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 9 Anthony Weiner (D) (Bright Blue along Jamaica Bay)

His district looks more convoluted now. It still stays the same politically: competitive at a national level but heavily Democratic at a local level. Racial stats are 5% Black, 15% Hispanic, 15% Asian and 62% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 10 Edolphus Towns (D) (Fuchsia)

The African American population drops but not nearly enough to alter the voting in this district. Racial stats are 53% Black, 21% Hispanic and 21% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 11 Yvette Clarke (D) Light Green

Not much change here either. Racial stats are 57% Black, 11% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 23% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 12 Nydia Velazquez (D) (Light Blue)

Velazquez seems safe but I made this district Hispanic majority so a Hispanic has an easier time getting elected when she retires. Racial stats are 8% Black, 50% Hispanic, 18% Asian and 21% White. Status is Safe Democrat

District 13 Michael McMahon (D) (Tan)

Since he was elected in 2008, I made his district solidly Democratic while keeping Staten Island within one district. With 30% of the district in Manhattan, McMahon’s only problem should be a very strong moderate Republican running here. Obama probably won 56% of the vote here. Racial stats are 8% Black, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 68% White. Status is Likely Democrat depending on the challengers.

District 14 Carolyn Maloney (D) (Dirty Green)

She loses some Hispanic precincts to the 12th district and her district extends to the Hudson River. It is still heavily Democratic. Racial stats are 10% Hispanic, 11% Asian and 74% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 15 Charlie Rangel (D) (Orange)

It extends further south into Manhattan and into Riverdale. Minorities are still the overwhelming majority here. The Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee should be happy with this new district. I reduced the Hispanic population from 48% to 44% to strengthen Hispanic representation in the 7th and 16th districts. Even though the Hispanic turnout is not very high, there should be a close contest between a Black and a Hispanic when Rangel retires. The reason is that the Hispanic population will keep growing. Racial stats are 30% Black, 44% Hispanic and 20% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 16 Jose Serrano (D) (Light Green)

The district gets whiter and less Hispanic but Serrano should be safe. Racial stats are 27% Black, 58% Hispanic and 9% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 17 Eliot Engel (D) (Purple above New York City)

Due to population growth, I had to remove parts of Bronx and add in parts of Orange County. Heavily Democratic neighborhoods in the Bronx and Yonkers should keep this district in the Democratic column. Obama probably won 60% of the vote here. Racial stats are 22% Black, 15% Hispanic, and 55% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 18 Nita Lowey (D) (Yellow in Westchester County)

This district is now completely in Westchester County, extending all the way to the Putnam County border. Obama probably won 60% of the vote here. Racial stats are 8% Black, 16% Hispanic, 6% Asian and 67% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 19 John Hall (D) (Light Green)

Hall seems safe in his current district because he won 58% of the vote there in 2008 even though he was elected in 2006. I solidified his hold by extending his district into some heavily Democratic precincts in Westchester County. I also kept in the cities in Orange County while removing more rural areas. These changes should keep Hall safe. Obama probably won 55%-57% of the vote here. Racial stats are 10% Black, 16% Hispanic and 68% White. Status is Safe Democrat or Likely Democrat depending on the challengers.

District 20 Scott Murphy (D) (Light Pink along eastern New York border)

Murphy was elected to Congress against Republican State Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco by a hair. Democrats will probably remove Tedisco’s home in Saratoga County and send the district up to the Canadian border to take in some Democratic counties. Here are the vote totals for the district except for the chunks of Dutchess and Otsego Counties: Barack Obama 159,784 and John McCain 143,853. Obama won about 52% of the vote in this district including the Dutchess and Otsego County chunks. Obama’s percentage rose by one point but with Tedisco’s base removed and Murphy’s home base in the district, Murphy appears safe. Racial stats are 91% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

District 21 Paul Tonko (D) (Mahogany Brown)

To protect the 20th and 22nd district, I removed Democratic Schenectady and Troy while adding some marginal rural counties. The voting totals for this district except for Chenango County are Obama 182,927 and McCain 137,887. It should be about two hundred votes less for Obama and McCain because the 20th district contains 900 people in Otsego County. Obama won about 56%-57% of the vote in the district. Racial stats are 5% Black and 86% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 22 Maurice Hinchey (D)vs. Eric Massa (D) (Dirt Brown)

I made a few changes by removing Cornell University and adding Schenectady. Except for Broome and Steuben Counties, the vote totals for this district are Obama 154,312 and McCain 127,453. Hinchey is still safe. Massa is a freshman Democrat so he may run in the 25th district. Obama probably won 55% of the vote overall. Racial stats are 5% Black, 5% Hispanic and 85% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 23 Michael Arcuri (D) (Light Turquoise)

I eliminated Republican John McHugh’s vacant seat assuming a Republican wins it. Arcuri loses most of his old 24th district but keeps Oneida County. The numbers for the district excluding Onondaga County are: Barack Obama, 120,726 votes and John McCain with 116,679 votes. Yes, I know it is close but Onondaga has heavily Democratic and Arcuri splits the city with the 24th district. Obama only wins about 52% of the vote here but Arcuri will probably win his Oneida County home base. His Republican challenger in 2008 Richard Hanna gave him a close race but I removed his home from the district. Racial stats are 87% White. Status is Likely Democrat but could change to Lean in a Republican year.

District 24 Dan Maffei (D) (Purple in Upstate)

I move his district around a bit but with heavily Democratic areas in Broome and Onondaga Counties, Maffei should have no worries. Obama probably won 56% of the vote here. Racial stats are 6% Black and 86% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 25 Vacant (Pink but NOT the district in Rochester)

Except for Tompkins County (Cornell University,) this district is mostly Republican. Since Maffei has all the Democrats he needs, Cornell has to go somewhere and I wanted to split as few counties as possible. Excluding split counties (Steuben and Wyoming) Obama has 127,859 votes to McCain’s 127,339 votes. Yep, equally divided between the parties but McCain is the overall winner. Steuben and Wyoming Counties are heavily Republican so they would make McCain carry the district. Chris Lee, the Republican Congressman from the 26th does not live here but he may run here because his home is in the Democratic 27th. 2012 should be an Obama year so Tompkins County should have high turnout which could propel a Democrat into office. Lee seems to be a good campaigner so he would be the frontrunner. Eric Massa may run here even though the district tilts Republican. Racial stats are 91% White. Status is Lean Republican.

District 26 Brian Higgins (D) vs. Chris Lee (R) (Gray)

I put this district entirely in Erie County and increased the minority population. These changes strengthen Obama’s performance. Higgins’s only problem is Chris Lee who would probably run in the more Republican 25th. Higgins has won easily in 2006 and 2008 so he should be safe. Obama probably won 56% of the vote here. Racial stats are 9% Black and 82% White. Status is Safe Democrat if Lee does not run, Likely Democrat if Lee runs.

District 27 Louise Slaughter (D) (Light Green)

It gets less Democratic but with the inclusion of Rochester and Buffalo central cities, this district remains Democratic. Obama probably won 58% of the vote here. Racial stats are 17% Black and 74% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 28 Vacant (Pink District in Rochester)

I tinkered with the district a bit by including more of Monroe County (Rochester) and splitting Rochester with the 27th. Republican Wyoming, Genesee and Wayne Counties should not be enough to offset Democratic margins. Eric Massa is the current representative of the 29th. He does not live here but since it contains part of his current district and it is Democratic, he might take a run at it. A Democrat should win it anyway. Obama probably won 55% of the vote here. Status is Safe Democrat.

I made this map assuming New York will lose one seat, all incumbents will win in 2010 and Republicans will hold NY-23. I chose to assume Republicans would hold the 23rd district because it seemed easier to redistrict out the 23rd district than the 26th.  

NY-19 Hall	Obama	McCain	Total
Current 19th	50.7%	46.2%
Saratoga County	2151	1987	4217
Washington County	12741	12533	25714
Rensselaer County	39753	32840	73976
Columbia County	17556	13337	31403
Dutchess County	71060	59628	132246
Putnam County	21613	25145	47206
Total	164874	145470	314762
New 19th	52.4%	46.2%

With slow population growth and redistricting out the 23rd district, districts had to move East and North. Since I started in the West and making it more Democratic Hall’s district changed a lot but Dutchess and Putnam Counties account for over 50% of the district which are in his district now.

NY-20 Murphy vs Scozzafava	Obama	McCain	Total
Current 20th	50.7%	47.7%
St Lawrence County	23706	16956	41223
Franklin County	10571	6676	17495
Clinton County	20216	12579	33312
Essex County	10390	7913	18590
Warren County	16281	15429	32206
Schenectady County	38611	29758	69765
Saratoga County	54494	50868	107008
Total	174269	140179	319599
New 20th	54.5%	43.9%

The 20th’s new Make up is 40.9% from the old 20th, 37.7% from the old 23rd, and 21.4% from the old 21st. Every county voted for Obama.

NY-21 Tonko	Obama	McCain	Total
Current 21st	58.1%	40%
Lewis County	4986	5969	11129
Jefferson County	18166	20219	38847
Herkimer County	12904	14619	27176
Hamilton County	1225	2141	3408
Fulton County	9695	11709	21800
Montgomery County	9080	10711	20168
Ostego County	13570	12026	26094
Schoharie County	6009	8071	14381
Albany County	93937	50586	147110
Total	168762	136051	310113
New 21st	54.4%	43.9%

Pickes up area from the old 23rd and 24th to the North and West becomes less Democratic. Albany County makes up about half of the district.

NY-22 Hinchey	Obama	McCain	Total
Current 22nd	59.2%	39.3%
Delaware County	9462	10524	20384
Greene County	9850	12059	22287
Sullivan County	16850	13900	31153
Ulster County	52539	32527	86461
Orange County	69913	60951	132233
Total	158614	129961	292518
New 22nd	54.2%	44.4%

Becomes more compact and less Democratic by losing its finger that goes through Binghamton and to Tompkins County.

NY-23 Massa	Obama	McCain	Total
Current 29th	48.2%	50.5%
Monroe County	101751	82413	186379
Ontario County	17431	15978	33816
Wayne County	9803	13009	23150
Yates County	4890	5269	10264
Seneca County	7422	7038	14725
Schuyler County	3933	4542	8600
Chemung County	18888	19364	38693
Tioga County	10172	12536	23085
Steuben County*	5951*	8398*	14535*
Total	180241	168547	353247
New 23rd	51%	47.7%

The numbers for the 23rd and 26th are not exact numbers because I could not find political data for Steuben County so I split up the numbers based on population. I would assume Corning is less repulbican than Steuben County on a whole, but since I dont know the area and couldnt find information on it I just split Steuben up evenly.

The 23rd picks up more of the Rochester exurbs and loses its strong republican areas in the Southwest. Monroe County now makes up about half of the district.

NY-24 Arcuri	Obama	McCain	Total
Current 24th	50.3%	48%
Cayuga County	16536	13398	30463
Cortland County	11861	9678	21897
Broome County	47204	40077	88707
Chenango County	10100	10337	20847
Madison County	14692	14434	29774
Oneida County	32627	34555	68237
Tompkins County	29826	11927	42472
Total	162846	134406	302397
New 24th	53.9%	44.4%

After his close call in 2008 making Arcuri’s district safer was one of my main goals. Picks up the rest of Tompkins and Broome Counties making it more Democratic.

NY-25 Maffei	Obama	McCain	Total
Current 25th	55.7%	42.6%
Wayne County	8381	9230	17829
Onondaga County	129317	84972	218194
Oswego County	24777	23571	49249
Oneida County	10879	14701	26069
Total	173354	132474	311341
New 25th	55.6%	42.5%

Loses its area in Monroe County and parts of Wayne County. Picks up Oswego County and parts of Oneida County. Stays almost the exact same politicaly.

NY-26 Lee	Obama	McCain	Total
Current 26th	46.4%	52.2%
Niagara County	26003	27267	54148
Orleans County	1758	2714	4550
Monroe County	12813	15385	28593
Genesee County	10762	15705	26866
Wyoming County	6379	10998	17665
Livingston County	13655	16030	30112
Chatauqua County	29129	28579	58762
Cattaraugus County	14307	17770	32588
Ontario County	7762	9193	17186
Allegany County	7016	11013	18386
Steuben County*	11197*	15805*	27353*
Total	140781	170459	316181
New 26th	44.5%	53.9%

Lee would now live in the 27th but I assume he would run in the safer 26th. Becomes more republican after losing its areas in Erie County and picking up most of the heavy republican areas from the 23rd.

NY-27 Higgins	Obama	McCain	Total
Current 27th	54.2%	44%
Erie County	191229	125711	321941
New 27th	59.4%	39%

Loses Chautauqua County and becomes more Democratic by picking up the rest of Buffalo.

NY-28 Slaughter	Obama	McCain	Total
Current 28th	68.5%	30.3%
Erie County	65070	53104	119985
Niagara County	21300	19081	41014
Orleans County	4856	6994	12024
Monroe County	92661	46355	140630
Total	183887	125534	313653
New 28th	58.6%	40%

I kept the general earmuff shape of the district the same to allow the 23rd to pick up more of Monroe County. I also kept it pretty safe considering Slaughter would be 93 on election day 2022 most likely creating an open seat in the next decade. I also drew Slaughter out of her own district but I did it mainly to make it easier to calculate the results it wouldnt much diffrence to draw an finger out to Fairport like there is now.

NY-Gov should be completely uninteresting for most poll junkies by now – another day, another poll showing Paterson getting creamed by Cuomo.

Quinnipiac (HTML – June 16-21, registered voters)

David Paterson: 20%

Andrew Cuomo: 57%

MoE: +3%

Here’s the slightly more newsworthy bit – Sen. Gillibrand is behind Rep. Carolyn Maloney for the 2010 Senate nomination:

Quinnipiac (HTML – June 16-21, registered voters)

Kirsten Gillibrand: 23%

Carolyn Maloney: 27%

Jonathan Tasini: 4%

Don’t Know:: 44%

MoE: +3%

Don’t Know still winds in a landslide, naturally – but I’m wondering what is keeping Gillibrand’s numbers so far in the pits, considering that she’s fairly smoothly transitioned from upstate conservative Democrat to the liberal New York mainstream. My thought was a sort of “throw the bums out” mentality, considering how badly Paterson is doing.

The fav/unfav of Gillibrand and Maloney are pretty similar – not many people have heard enough about them yet to really form an opinion one way or the other.

Gillibrand’s, among Democrats:

Favorable: 29%

Unfavorable: 8%

Haven’t Heard Enough 63%

And Maloney’s, among Democrats

Favorable: 34%

Unfavorable: 2%

Haven’t Heard Enough 63%

I think Gillibrand will be fine in the primary in the end. I don’t know that any of the attacks from the downstate Democrats will necessarily stick as her voting record in the Senate gets fleshed out over the next year or so, and Upstate Democrats adore her, so she really just has to win a plurality of the NYC vote to carry the primary (or even a close second).

Bonus question from the Q-poll:

DavidNYC’s favorables, among Democrats:

Favorable: 63%

Unfavorable: 10%

Haven’t Heard Enough 27%

Obviously DavidNYC should be the Democratic Party’s choice for this one. Peter Fucking King stands no chance.

(Truly tremendous work. From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

I love political geography and political history. So, something seemed out of line when I recently read diaries on several sites regarding the soon-to-be vacancy of New York’s 23rd Congressional District, made possible by the appointment of John McHugh to become Secretary of the Army. Several diaries mentioned that the district hasn’t been represented by a Democrat in a quarter-century or so. Perhaps parts of the district haven’t elected a Democrat in 25 or so years, but it seemed to me that most of the district hasn’t been Democratic-held since much earlier times. I decided to do a little research.

It turns out that NY-23 is a true political anomaly. It is one of only two remaining districts in the United States where at least part of the district has not been represented by a Democrat since 1852 (the other is Pennsylvania’s 16th District, which includes Lancaster County, most of which has not been represented by a Democrat since 1830. Tennessee’s 2nd District last elected a Democrat in 1852. There no longer are any comparable Democratic-held districts; all have gone Republican at least once since 1850, although a few in Texas held out until the DeLay redistricting of 2004.)

If Democrats win NY-23 in a special election to be held later this year, certain parts of this district will be represented by a Democrat for the first time in 159 years. The map below gives you an idea of how long it’s been since parts of the district have been Democratic-held. Almost two-thirds of the population of the current district (62%) live in territory that has not elected a Democrat since 1890 or earlier. It really is mind-boggling. (For those political geeks interested in more history about this district, I provide additional information below the map.)

Perhaps what got a few commentators confused regarding this district in diaries I read (other than often-confusing district numbering) was the fact that the district has only been around in its present “single-district” form since the 1940’s. Since that time, it has always included Jefferson, St. Lawrence, and Franklin Counties, as well as Lewis Co. (except for 1971-73), and Oswego Co. (except for 1945-53 and 1983-93). Clinton Co. and most of Essex Co. have also been part of the district since 1969 and 1971, respectively. The other, more peripheral counties have been part of this district only briefly over the last 60 or so years. Between 1883 and 1943, there were basically two districts here – a “western” one, encompassing Jefferson, Oswego, Lewis, and Madison, and an “eastern” one, encompassing St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton, and Essex – although during one period of time, redistricting created three districts centered in what is now NY-23. Prior to 1883, what is now NY-23 was part of four or more different districts.

Since the 1856 election (when the Republican party entered the political arena), the territory in what is now NY-23 has almost exclusively been represented by the GOP. In fact, the last Democrat elected to represent St. Lawrence Co. in Congress was a man named Francis Spinner, elected in 1854. He ran successfully for re-election as a Republican in 1856 and was later appointed as Treasurer of the United States by Abraham Lincoln. The last Democrat to represent Jefferson Co. was even earlier – Willard Ives, elected in 1850. The most amazing fact I found was regarding Franklin Co. The last Democrat elected to represent that county was Joseph Russell, also in 1850. In 1852, the district that then included Franklin elected George Simmons, a member of the Whig party. Therefore, Franklin Co. has been more recently represented in Congress by a WHIG (1854) than by a Democrat (1852)!

I wasn’t going to go into the current political situation in NY-23 at all in this diary, but one fact caught my eye while researching the info here. It is interesting that Darrrell Aubertine (who represents Oswego, Jefferson and part of St. Lawrence in the State Senate – equivalent to approximately 45% of the population of NY-23) is the first Democrat elected to his State Senate seat since 1880. (By the way, no other State Senator represents as high a percentage of NY-23 as Aubertine; GOP Senator Joe Griffo represents about 15% and doesn’t even live in NY-23; while GOP Senator Betty Little represents about 25% and also doesn’t live in the congressional district; two others represent the remainder.) Aubertine would certainly make a formidable candidate for us. However, I also understand the need to keep the State Senate in Democratic hands. NY-23 voted for Obama by 52-47, so this election will be competitive. Hopefully, we will find a good candidate and make him or her the first Democrat elected to Congress here in a long, long time.

Sources for information:

• The Historical Atlas of Political Parties in the United States Congress (1989)
• The Almanac of American Politics (various editions)
• Wikipedia