Tag: Senate

Throughout the years, we election junkies have seen some pretty spectacular campaigns, and some, well, less so ones.

But this year, Democrats face an uphill battle in holding on to their large congressional majorities.

It’s no secret that the House of Representatives (and the Senate for the more pessimistic) is in play.

However, if Democrats have one thing going for them, it is the quality of their candidates and the campaigns they are running.

The Democratic coalition is diverse. It includes minorities, college-educated whites, labour unions, and event remnants of the once “Solid South.”

This diversity allows for Democrats to nominate candidates that fit their district’s voting patterns (hey, what a concept). This goes to include a Bobby Bright in Alabama, a Mark Warner in Virginia, a Brian Schweitzer in Montana, and a Mike Capuano in Boston.

In contrast, Republicans have severely handicapped themselves by nominating candidates like a Rand Paul in Kentucky, a Raul Labrador in Idaho, and a Bill Brady in Illinois (hat tip http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Despite all this, it is not just the candidate that makes the race, but also the campaign (Hi Congressman Mark Critz).

And the campaign that I’ve been the most impressed with is that of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Now, Sen. Reid was given a huge gift in the form of Sharron Angle. The former assemblywoman is a certified nut job, and her many gaffes provide ample fodder for campaign ads.

However, if there is a graphic that sums up the effectiveness of campaigns this year, look no further than PPP’s latest polling roundup:

http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

The graph on the page there shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of each candidate, the net balance, and the percent unknown.

That last data point is the one I want to focus the remainder of this diary.

Let’s look at the candidates. You have a former state attorney general, a former congressman, a former congressman/former OMB director, a current congressman, a former CEO, a former state speaker of the house, a current congressman/former minority whip/father of the previous governor, and a former state assemblywoman.

Some of those are highly visible roles and titles and appear to be prime examples of normal Senate hopefuls, well that is except a former assemblywoman.

Yet the Reid campaign has made the name recognition of a former assemblywoman higher than any of the other candidates in any of the other races.

Sharron Angle’s unknown rating is 12%. To put that in context, I’d say that hovers near the Senator’s own rating and is probably well ahead of the state’s own embattled, lame duck sitting governor.

That is why Sen. Reid will win in Nevada in November, and will be joined in the Senate by Sens. Carnahan, Crist, Boxer, Feingold, Fisher, Sestak, Giannoulias, and Bennet.

This is the first part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate elections in blue states. The first part, which analyzes Illinois can be found here.

Out of the three heavily Democratic states being analyzed, Republicans probably have the least chance of winning New York. A serious Republican challenger to Senator Kristen Gillibrand has yet to emerge. Moreover, Ms. Gillibrand has proven an adept politician willing to campaign hard.

Nevertheless, in a bad national environment with low name recognition, victory for Democrats is not assured. Under the right circumstances (perhaps a Gillibrand scandal), Republicans may be able to pull off a shocker.

Like Illinois, New York can be divided into three sections: upstate, the suburbs downstate, and New York City. A New York Republican must win upstate and the suburbs by substantial margins – and perform extremely well in New York City.

More below.

Upstate New York

Like Illinois, the first step on the Republican road to victory lies with here. A Republican candidate must win strong margins upstate; a strong performance here is embedded with a double-digit loss.

Unfortunately for Republicans, upstate New York and downstate Illinois are not the same. Unlike Illinois, upstate New York is home to four major cities: Buffalo, Rochester, Albany, and Syracuse. In a normal election – i.e. a double-digit Democratic victory – these cities will vote Democratic, some by substantial margins.

There are several more wrinkles for a Republican candidate. Like much of the rural northeast, upstate New York has been trending Democratic. Despite the conservative national mood, Democrats last year won two special elections upstate. Moreover, Senator Kristen Gillibrand has roots there; she represented an upstate congressional district before becoming Senator.

Nevertheless, the majority of this region still votes loyally Republican; a competitive candidate can rely upon it to help counter New York City. In a close election a Republican ought to win almost every county in upstate New York.



The Suburbs Downstate

This region can be defined as the suburbs surrounding New York City: Long Island and the communities around Yonkers. A Republican’s task here is similar to that upstate: win, and win big.

Historically this was not too difficult; New York City’s suburbs regularly voted Republican, although never by enough to overcome Democratic margins in the city itself. Like many other suburbs, this changed with President Bill Clinton: since his time they have generally voted Democratic.

Today things are changing once more. Since the events of 9/11, downstate’s suburbs (especially Long Island) have been trending Republican. This was one of the few regions Senator John McCain did well in (as opposed to President Barack Obama doing poorly in); his national security credentials appealed to a number of downstate suburban voters.

A strong Republican must capitalize on this trend, changing New York’s suburbs back into Republican territory. This strength, added to margins from upstate, makes for a 5% Republican loss. Republican candidates have achieved this combination many times in the state’s electoral history. Take 1968, when President Richard Nixon lost New York by 5.46%:

The problem is the last 5%, to  which a Republican must look to New York City for.



New York City

To make up the last 5%, a Republican candidate must do well in New York City, that great metropolis of the United States. The Big Apple composes an astounding 43% of the state’s population, the largest proportion in the country. It also votes extremely Democratic; in 2008 four out of five voters turned the lever for President Barack Obama.

The Republican facing Ms. Gillibrand will have to substantially improve upon this number. This is not as hard as it first sounds. New York City, after all, has had a non-Democratic mayor for more than a decade. Low minority turn-out looks likely to bedevil Democrats during this off-year election. Moreover, Republicans retain a base in Staten Island and southern Brooklyn. Even in 2008 these places voted Republican:

(Note: Image courtesy of a very old post from jeffmd.)

Finally, some regional complexities come into play. Although almost all of New York City voted for Mr. Obama, some parts are more less loyally Democratic than others (as was the case in Massachusetts). White liberals and impoverished minorities in Manhattan and the Bronx almost never vote Republican; suburbanites in Brooklyn and Queens, on the other hand, are more perceptible to Republican appeals. Winning Republicans generally tie or win the Queens borough and hold Democrats below 60% in the Kings borough.



Conclusions

If New York is close next November, it will probably look something like this:

This map can indicate anything from a 5% Democratic victory to a 5% Republican victory, depending on turn-out. Perhaps the best barometer will be the Queens borough in New York City. Look to it next November – it might literally determine the fate of the Democratic Senate majority.

These are my first rankings of any set of seats for the 2010 Congressional elections. The Senate outlook for the Democrats was at first good (this was early 2009.) Then it became poor as fall hit but now the Democrats have a stronger shot in the Senate. Still, the Republicans will pick up seats but the Democrats will still have a majority in the Senate. I am expecting the Republican to pick up 5 seats and they should lose one or two so I am looking at a 3-4 seat gain for the Republican. This is more optimistic than other rankings I have seen but Republican candidates made some mistakes and/or Democrats found the right candidates. Unfortunately, with the economy starting to slump again, the climate will be less favorable to the Democrats. Still, in many races, it is the candidate and not the climate that people are thinking about when they cast their ballots. This at first looks good for the Democrats but it actually helps the Republicans in a few states such as Illinois where Obama and Democrats are popular but Republicans are waging tough races. Enough chatter about Senate races, to the rankings!

1. North Dakota OPEN (D)

Byron Dorgan (D) retired so popular Governor John Hoeven (R) is running. The race was over before it even started.

Ranking: Safe Republican

2. Arkansas Blanche Lincoln (D)

Blanche Lincoln held off the unions (which were never powerful in Arkansas,) the progressives and Bill Halter (D)  when she won the Democratic primary with the help of Bill Clinton. Although Blanche Lincoln came from behind to win, that should not happen this time. Rep John Boozmen (R) from the northwest portion of the state (where Wal Mart was started) is running. All recent polls show Boozmen with a lead about 20 points. Although this race has not been polled for a couple of weeks, all indications clearly show that Boozmen is ahead. Barring a major gaffe or a big burst of luck, Boozmen will be Arkansas’s next Senator.

Ranking: Likely Republican

3. Delaware OPEN Ted Kaufman (D)

The Democrats have had bad luck with this seat. First, Michael Castle (R), Delaware’s popular representative threw his hat in the ring and Beau Biden (D), Joe Biden’s son who was supposed to run jumped ship. Now Democrats nominated New Castle County (Wilmington) executive, Chris Coons (D) to run for Senate. It should be noted that New Castle County is a bellwether so Coons already has an advantage. Michael Castle though is a moderate and is well known throughout the state but if people get fed up with all the incumbents…Still, expect a Michael Castle win.

Ranking: Lean Republican

4. Indiana OPEN Evan Bayh (D)

Bye bye Bayh, after being a popular Governor and Senator, Bayh left open a seat the Democrats should have held (and it aint no lie.) Dan Coats (R) is a former Republican Senator and lobbyist who won the primary with only 40% of the vote. He faces Brad Ellsworth (D), the moderate and popular Congressman from southern Indiana, filled with rural swing voters. Although Ellsworth is moderate and should do well with rural voters, Dan Coats has a strong lead. Ellsworth just got out an effective ad attacking lobbyists (not explicitly mentioning the one running against him.) This is helpful but he also needs to appeal to urban voters who were key to Obama’s winning coalition in 2008.  Ellsworth is a great candidate and he definitely will make it close. Unfortunately, I think due to the Republican lean of the state and the year’s climate, Coats will win by about 5 points.

Ranking: Lean Republican

5. Florida OPEN Mel Martinez (R)

Once Crist jumped into this race, it appeared that he would win easily. Then along came Marco Rubio who started out at 4% but forced Crist to run as an independent. Many pundits including myself believed Crist would take away Republican votes but since they view him as a traitor, he did not steal many. Now he is taking away votes from Meek. I expect Crist to caucus with the Democrats because Crist has suddenly become more Democratic and has strongly advocated against more oil drilling. He participated in a hands across the sands protest against oil drilling too. Most polls show Crist with a slight lead over Rubio and I think that it will be close but Crist will win.

Ranking: Lean Independent

6. Colorado Michael Bennett (D)

Michael Bennett was the former School Superintendent for Colorado and he was appointed by Bill Ritter (D) because Ken Salazar (D) was pulled out to become Secretary of the Interior. Now Republicans Ken Buck and Jane Norton are challenging Bennett. Also, Bennett faces a challenge from Andrew Romanoff (D) who is the former speaker for Colorado’s House. Although the Republicans are not very moderate, Bennett keeps trailing them by a few points and Romanoff trails them too. Ken Buck though, the leader in the primary favors strong cuts to the Department of Education and Norton favors eliminating it. This could come back to haunt them. Most polls show Bennett winning the primary but I do not have a good feeling about this race.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

7. Missouri OPEN Christopher Bond (R)

I was debating whether I should put Ohio here but in the end, I decided that this spot belonged to Missouri. Christopher Bond, one of the dwindling group of reasonable Republicans is now retiring. A not so reasonable Republican, Roy Blunt (R) from southwest Missouri is running to replace Bond. Blunt is the former House Majority Whip under the Bush Administration. The Democrats found a good candidate in Robin Carnahan (D), a member of a strong political family and the Secretary of State. A recent Rasmussen poll shows Blunt with a 5 point lead but Rasmussen is known to be biased toward the right. The latest non Rasmussen poll was in March and it showed Blunt with a 4 point lead. Missouri has a strong rural conservative base but Carnahan has her advantages. She won by 26 points in 2010, losing only 10 counties so she proved she can win rural areas. Also, her family owns a farm so she can highlight her rural roots. This is why I believe that once Carnahan starts campaigning, the race will become very close.

Ranking: Toss Up

8. Ohio OPEN George Voinovich (R)

Voinovich is another reasonable Republican who is retiring. After a bruising primary against Jennifer Brunner (D), Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (D) won. He is facing Rob Portman (R) who is a former congressman and official during the Bush Administration. Every poll since March that is not Rasmussen shows Fisher with a lead although most of the leads are by a few points. Fisher’s main jobs will be to tie Portman to Bush, remind people how bad Bush was (because everyone is blaming Bush’s problems on Obama) and Fisher should highlight how he will create jobs. Also, Fisher needs to step up the fundraising. Also, Portman is from southern Ohio while Fisher is from Northeast Ohio. On election night, you should expect a map similar to 2004 except Fisher may get a few Ohio river counties. I still believe that if one race leads to a recount, it will be this one.

Ranking: Toss Up

9. Illinois OPEN Roland Burris (D)

Really good candidates, especially those whose names are spelled L-I-S-A M-A-D-I-G-A-N decided not to run so we have Alexi Giannoulis (D) who is the State Treasurer. He is young but his family’s bank problems are not. Mark Kirk (R), the moderate Republican from Chicago suburbs and candidate for Senate appeared to have an advantage because of this. He still did not think that gave him a strong enough lead so he decided he could woo voters by bragging about military credentials…he forgot he did not have. Now the race is closer and I think due to the Democratic lean of the state, Giannoulis will win by a couple of points.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

10 (tie) Nevada Harry Reid (D)

The Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid will be facing Sharron Angle (R) a State Senator from Washoe County. Harry Reid is very unpopular in Nevada but neither is Sharron Angle. Her beliefs range from wanting to eliminate social security, the Department of Education, support of Scientology and that Abraham Lincoln lost all his elections but President (he lost only one election is his whole lifetime.) Also, Angle faces another problem because as of last month, Harry Reid has $12 million COH (cash on hand) and Angle has only $138,000. Recent polls show this race close because many people have not heard about Angle just yet. She is trying to hide her opinions though by saying Harry Reid cannot quote them and she seems shocked that people are monitoring everything she says. Angle…welcome to the world of campaigning. Harry Reid is still unpopular but I expect him to win by a few points. The only good tactic Angle has used is behaving callously toward oil spill and rape victims and not having a moment where she does not care about Yucca Mountain. In Nevada, you can vote for “None of these candidates” and I would not be surprised if they won.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

10 (tie). Kentucky OPEN Jim Bunning (R)

Once Bunning realized he had a poor shot at hitting a home run and winning again, he decided to bail out of the race. Rand Paul (R), the son on Ron Paul (R) is now running against Jack Conway (D). At first, it appeared that teabagger Paul would win this race until he revealed how much he hated big government. He thought that government could not prevent businesses from discriminating. Then he flip flopped and believes the U.S needs to use government spending to build a border fence. Conway is a good candidate but Kentucky is too conservative for him and this is not a good year for Democrats.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican.

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? What are yours?

This post was cross posted at http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more election analysis.  

Hello my fellow SSPers.  As a matter of full disclosure, I should mention that I have recently taken a top-level staff job with the David Haley for U.S. Senate campaign in the state of Kansas.  

I am in a quandary.  I just reserved a fairly large cable buy in important media markets here in Kansas.  As we have been talking about the content of our 30-second ad, I came to the realization that almost every web video I’ve seen has been better this cycle than production ads (except for Dale Peterson of course).   I would like to petition any and all of my fellow SSPers to ask anybody who is interested to submit a 30-second video to my gmail (jeffesparza@gmail.com).  My favorite video will be used as an ad in advance of our August 3rd primary (it should be noted that our target audience are primary voters).  Our website is under construction and should be up early this week (www.haleyforsenate.com).

I understand that this does not really fall inside the mission of SSP, but as a longtime commenter (and a lurker since long before that), I was hoping that David and James might cut me a little slack.

The rest of this diary is the majority of the content that will be up on our website.

The rest of this diary is the majority of the content that will be up on our website.

Facebook Link: http://www.facebook.com/haley4…

Twitter Feed: http://twitter.com/haley4senate

Contact us at 913-396-1314 or info@haleyfor senate.com

About David:

Kansas City, Kansas native Senator David Haley is in his 16th year in the Kansas Legislature, having served six years in the Kansas House and ten years in the Kansas Senate.  David serves as the Ranking Democratic Member of the Senate Health Care Strategies Committee and the Senate Public Health and Welfare Committee. He is also a member the Senate President’s Task Force on Health Care, the Child Protective Services Task Force and several standing committees, including: Senate Judiciary, Senate Redistricting, Joint Health Policy Oversight, Joint Corrections and Juvenile Justice, Joint State-Trial Relations, Joint Children’s Issues, State Trauma Board, Criminal Recodification, and Aging Advisory.

During his time in the legislature, Senator Haley has focused intently on living-wage job creation.  Whether working for STAR bond development for the Legends development in western Wyandotte County, helping the state update its antiquated minimum wage law, or preventing state and local governments from seizing private property, Senator Haley has a consistent record of supporting robust, sustainable private sector job growth.

David has fought hard to end illegal profiling practices. In 2005, he co-sponsored legislation that officially banned profiling of motorists by law enforcement officers. As an appointee to the newly-created Kansas Racial Profiling Task Force, David continues to protect Kansans from this illegal practice and has been instrumental in increasing the number of Kansans who have reported instances of such crimes.  In addition, his work on the Kansas criminal law recodification has helped make the Kansas criminal justice system more innovative, progressive, and fair; his recodification work will help reduce crime in Kansas over the long term making our cities and rural areas safer for businesses and families.

David continues to champion for a variety of other issues, including abolition of the death penalty, ending cruelty against animals, and finding viable solutions to the many health care challenges facing Kansas.

The proud father of four, David is a graduate of Morehouse College in Atlanta, GA, and of Howard University Law School in Washington, D.C.

David serves as the Ranking Democratic Member of the Senate Health Care Strategies Committee and the Senate Public Health and Welfare Committee. He is also a member the Senate President’s Task Force on Health Care, the Child Protective Services Task Force and several standing committees, including: Senate Judiciary, Senate Redistricting, Joint Health Policy Oversight, Joint Corrections and Juvenile Justice, Joint State-Trial Relations, Joint Children’s Issues, State Trauma Board, Criminal Recodification, and Aging Advisory.

David Haley on the Issues:

Abortion

Senator Haley believes that choosing to have a child is one of the most difficult decisions of a woman’s life.  This choice should be made with the best information available and is a choice that involves family, religion, and personal believes; this choice should not be made by the government.

Civil Rights

Senator Haley has worked for his entire career on issues of civil rights.  Criminal recodification, fighting illegal profiling, raising the standard of personal rights, and reforming our death penalty laws have been issues that David Haley has built real bi-partisan support around.  He also supports the Employment Non-Discrimination act.

Economy and Jobs

Governor Sebelius, David Haley, and a number of leaders across Kansas came together to help with the Legends and Speedway development in Wyandotte County.  With Haley’s leadership, Kansas can grow its economy with new private sector jobs like these along with new green-collar jobs all across Kansas.  As a moderate Kansan, David Haley has proven his ability to help drive economic development without wasteful spending or cuts in important programs like education.  This is why the MAINstream coalition has endorsed David Haley’s candidacy.

Financial Reform

When commercial banks and investment banks are allowed to securitize people’s hard earned money without any consumer protections, money will be traded at too great a risk.  The people of Kansas deserve to know how their money is invested; David Haley supports financial reform.

Gun Control

David Haley fully supports 2nd Amendment rights.

Health Care

Insurance companies should not be allowed to discriminate against people with pre-existing conditions.  David Haley has been a supporter of an option to allow private citizens to buy the same plan congress and government employees are allowed to purchase.

Labor

There has not been a more tireless supporter of labor organizations, working people, and Kansas small businesses than David Haley.  When David Haley becomes a United States Senator, working people will have a voice in Washington.

Military

David Haley supports the troops.  Unfortunately, our government does not do nearly enough for our nation’s veterans.  As a United States Senator, David Haley will work tirelessly to improve our VA hospitals and veteran job-training programs.

Our record:

Elected to the State Senate in 2000, Senator Haley has earned a reputation as an effective steward of tax dollars. He serves as ranking member of the influential Public Health and Welfare Committee and the Senate Judiciary Committee; and is also a key member of the State Tribal Relations; Recodifaciation; Rehabilitation and Restoriation; Early Childhood Coordinating Council; and the Corrections and Juvenile Justice committees. His previous committee service ¬ includes Senate Assessment & Taxation; Redistricitng; and the Kansas Sentencing Commission. He is the author of more than 40 bills in the Senate.

While a member of the House, Representative Haley was the only Wyandotte Countian serving on both the House Health & Human Services and the House Judiciary Committees (which held major impact for local and state residents) and a member of the Joint Committee on Health Care Reform. A third Committee assignment was Governmental Organizations & Elections. During this brief legislative tenure, Representative Haley advocated lower real/personal property taxes and stronger representation between elected official and their constituencies. He introduced more than 25 bills in the House.

A fiscal conservative, David has championed measures to curb waste and abuse in state government in order to save taxpayers money and guarantee continued funding for public education, criminal justice, health care, and other vital services. He has sponsored a wide range of critical legislation, from ending racial profiling of motorists to increasing penalties against those who are charged with extreme cruelty to animals. Senator Haley has fought for campaign finance reform, affordable housing, and individual development accounts to encourage personal savings among low-income families. He has led the charge against allowing the government to seize private property via unfair eminent domain laws and in favor of proven programs for non-violent ex-offenders to help them find jobs and re-enter society. His legislative and community advocacy have been chronicled on The Montel Williams Show (extreme animal cruelty); HBO (27th Street/Quindaro documentary); C-SPAN (37th Anniversary/March on Washington 2000); on numerous metropolitan broadcasts and in printed news accounts (view the Media page).

In the Media:

Kansas Free Press

David Haley: My Choice for Democrat in U.S. Senate Primary

By Marty Keenan

Opinion | June 8, 2010

GREAT BEND, Kan. – The fact that four Kansas Democrats are competing this year for a chance to run for a U.S. Senate slot is encouraging. Kansas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in over 70 years, and the number of Democrats who want a shot at this is a sign of a growing, vibrant and optimistic party. The four candidates: David Haley, Charles Schollenberger, Lisa Johnston and Robert Conroy would all acquit themselves well in the general election.

But Haley is the only candidate who currently serves in elective office. He’s a fantastic public speaker. He has experience in running a statewide campaign. He has paid his dues to the Kansas Democratic Party.

Haley is not just the only candidate to hold political office, he’s a State Senator. And that’s a big deal. There are only 40 State Senators in Kansas, as opposed to 125 members of the Kansas House of Representatives. The title of “state senator” is shorthand for political success, a proven commodity. U.S. Senator Scott Brown, who snared Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat from the Democrats in Massachusetts, was a state senator. And that gave him credibility.

And he would help energize Kansas Democrats most faithful constituency: the African-American community. Haley’s family name (he’s the nephew of “Roots” author Alex Haley) would be sure to snare some national attention if he becomes the nominee. Kansas nominating an African-American to replace Sam Brownback? Now that’s a good story.

But I have a personal reason for supporting Senator Haley. You see, loyalty and friendship are #1 with me. Maybe it’s a blind spot I have. But in 2001, when I organized a film festival for Oscar Micheaux, the first African-American movie maker, who is buried in Great Bend, Senator David Haley was there for me.

Senator Haley not only traveled to Great Bend to speak at the event in 2001, he introduced a Senate resolution honoring Oscar Micheaux. Some of Oscar Micheaux’s cousins and I got to sit in the State Senate chambers when the resolution was introduced.

Our efforts to honor Micheaux must have paid off. This month the U.S. Postal Service is rolling out the Oscar Micheaux Black Heritage Series Stamp, with a special ceremony in Great Bend and other places, like Brooklyn, Atlanta and other cities around the country.

When my mother died unexpectedly on May 27, 2002, David Haley contacted me. I was floored. “How the did you find out about this?” I asked. “Marty, I always read the obituaries, ALWAYS,” he said. He offered words of comfort to me in a difficult time.

Christian musician Dallas Holm once said: “A person with an experience is never at the mercy of a person with an argument.” And many might argue with me about whether Haley is the best nominee. But, you see, I’ve had personal experiences with Haley that cause me to favor him. Politics is about people, about helping those who have been there for you. It’s always been that way.

But Democrats throughout the state don’t need a personal reason to vote for Haley. They should vote for him because he’d be the best nominee for the party in November.

First, Haley has paid his dues. In 2002 when Kathleen Sebelius was running for her first term as governor, the Kansas Democratic Party basically drafted David Haley to run for secretary of state. Haley didn’t win, but his presence on the ticket helped energize the African-American constituency statewide, and they went to the polls and helped Sebelius become Governor.

Haley ran again for secretary of state in 2006, this time on his own volition. Although Haley lost again to popular Republican incumbent Ron Thornburgh, Governor Sebelius was reelected by a larger margin in 2006 than she got in 2002, plus Democrat Paul Morrison ousted Republican Attorney General Phill Kline by a comfortable margin. Also, Democrat Nancy Boyda upset incumbent Congressman Jim Ryan. It would be hard to argue that Haley on the ticket did anything but help other Democrats in both 2002 and 2006. Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat for Secretary of State since 1948, but at least Haley tried.

Former State Senator Billy McCray was the first African-American to run for statewide office in 1982. He ran for secretary of state, at the request of Democratic Governor John Carlin, who was running for reelection that year. McCray ran a good campaign. Although he lost, he knew he helped turn out the African-American votes for the party.

I know and respect both Haley and McCray, and they ran for statewide office because they wanted to win and be secretary of state. But in the back of their minds, surely they suspected they were, at some level, being “used” by the Kansas Democratic Party to spike black turnout on election day.

I abhor the “use” of African-American candidates simply as a tool to help white Democrats turn out the black community on election day.

I want black candidates to run to WIN, and to serve. And Haley wants to be a U.S. senator, and he would be a good one.

This year, the state Democratic establishment is not pushing Haley to run. But of all the candidates, he’s the one who has paid his dues. Serving in the legislature, attending hundreds of rubber chicken Democrat dinners, running for secretary of state. Haley has paid his dues in a thousand ways.

A Democrat winning a U.S. Senate race in Kansas is a long shot. But whoever survives the Republican primary (Moran or Tiahrt) will have an empty campaign kitty on August 3, and both have run so far to the right as to scare many Kansas voters.

“Hope Springs Eternal” with Kansas Democrats, and David Haley is getting my vote on August 3. He’s been there for me. But most of all, he’s paid his dues.

Senator Chuck Grassley’s re-election campaign unveiled its first television commercial of the year yesterday:

Rough transcript by me:

Unidentified woman: “Tightwad.”

Unidentified woman: “Penny-pincher.”

Unidentified man: “He’s frugal.”

Unidentified man: “Blunt.”

Unidentified man: “Straight-talking.”

Unidentified woman: “One of us.”

Female voice-over: Chuck Grassley visits every county every year to stay in touch. He’s a farmer and a senator. He’ll do what needs to be done. He’s just like Iowa. Chuck Grassley works … and he never forgets he works for us.

Grassley: I’m Chuck Grassley for Iowa, and I approved this message.

Once Roxanne Conlin went up on television, I figured it wouldn’t be long before Grassley’s campaign responded. He has more than $5 million in the bank and can probably afford to run television commercials from now until November.

Although this commercial doesn’t mention Grassley’s likely Democratic opponent in the general election, I infer from the language in this ad that he’ll run against Conlin as a rich, free-spending lawyer who’s not “one of us.”

This doesn’t seem like a strong commercial to me, but it shows Grassley recognizes he can’t afford to be seen as the candidate representing special interests. The female voice-over suggests to me that Grassley knows he needs to shore up support among women. The most recent Rasmussen poll showed Conlin trailing narrowly among women, and the most recent Research 2000 poll for KCCI showed Conlin slightly ahead of Grassley among women.

Grassley will be hard-pressed to defend his “penny-pincher” reputation when he has voted for every blank check for war and the Wall Street bailout. He also voted for every Bush tax cut for the wealthy, which massively increased our national debt and budget deficits. In the current fiscal year, “a staggering 52.5 percent of the benefits [from the Bush tax cuts] will go to the richest 5 percent of taxpayers. Meanwhile, Grassley voted against many policies that benefit hard-working Iowans, like the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act.

Swing State Project readers, please share your thoughts on this commercial and the campaign.

Roxanne Conlin, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, begins television advertising across Iowa this week. I’m not able to embed the commercial, but click here to watch. The Conlin campaign released this transcript:

“I’m Roxanne Conlin. Taking on the special interests has been the cause of my life. Like taking on the big banks to help family farms at risk of foreclosure. I took on corrupt politicians and corporations who violated the public trust. I’m running for U.S. Senate to take this fight to Washington. Fight for relief on Main Street, not more bailouts for Wall Street. Because the special interests have had their turn. Now, it’s our turn. I’m Roxanne Conlin and I approved this message.”

I noticed a small omission from that transcript: in the commercial, Conlin says, “As a prosecutor I took on corrupt politicians…” That’s important, because many Iowans may not remember that she served as U.S. attorney for Iowa’s southern district from 1977 to 1981.

This ad is a shorter version of the introductory video Conlin’s campaign released last fall, which I discussed here. It’s a fairly basic message for Iowans who haven’t heard of Conlin, and it makes sense for her to raise her profile just before the June 8 primary. Though this ad doesn’t mention five-term Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley, it starts building the case Conlin will make later in the campaign: Grassley has stood up for special interests throughout his career. I believe Grassley voted for the financial reform bill last week in order to undercut the narrative Conlin will build against him. You don’t normally see Grassley voting with most Democrats and a handful of New England Republicans.

Iowa’s primary election takes place on June 8. Two other Democrats are challenging Grassley: Bob Krause and Tom Fiegen. Most people expect Conlin to win the primary easily. She began the race with more name recognition and has campaigned in all 99 counties since the start of the year. Conlin has already raised more money than all of Grassley’s previous challengers combined. She out-raised Grassley in the first quarter and had about $1 million cash on hand as of March 31, while the Krause and Fiegen campaigns had less than $1,000 on hand between them.

Late last week Conlin called on Grassley to denounce Kentucky Republican Rand Paul’s comments about civil rights. Paul suggested that private businesses should be allowed to discriminate. Without mentioning Paul’s name, Grassley’s spokesperson told Iowa Independent,

Sen. Grassley’s position is that if a place is open for business it should be open for everyone.  You may know that Grassley was a co-sponsor of the 1982 and 2006 reauthorizations of the Voting Rights Act, the 1965 companion to the Civil Rights Act of 1964.  He was in the middle of the agreement reached on the 1982 legislation. Grassley also supported the 1991 extension of the Civil Rights Act.  That was the last major amendment to the Civil Rights Act.  It was broadened in 1972, after its passage in 1964.

Grassley is wise to put some distance between himself and Paul’s views. As Assistant Iowa Attorney General in the 1970s, Conlin prosecuted the first cases under our state’s civil rights law.

The latest Rasmussen Iowa poll shows five-term incumbent Senator Chuck Grassley still over 50 percent against all Democratic challengers, but with a smaller lead than he had earlier in the year. Rasmussen surveyed 500 likely Iowa voters on April 29, giving a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Survey questions and toplines are here.

Roxanne Conlin is the Democrat who gives Grassley the narrowest lead, 53 percent to 40 percent. Grassley led Conlin 55-36 in Rasmussen’s previous Iowa poll, taken in mid-March. Rasmussen’s summary notes that Grassley “now leads Conlin by only five points among women.”

Many politically active Iowa Democrats believe Conlin can help Governor Chet Culver and our down-ticket candidates if she motivates high turnout among women. I also know many women who plan to volunteer for Conlin’s campaign. She has already held campaign events in all 99 Iowa counties.

Grassley leads Democrat Bob Krause by 57 percent to 31 percent, the same as in Rasmussen’s March poll. He leads Tom Fiegen by 57 percent to 30 percent, a slightly smaller margin than his 57-28 lead in March.

This race is still Grassley’s to lose; Rasmussen finds 63 percent of respondents have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of the incumbent, while only 34 percent have a very or somewhat unfavorable opinion. The corresponding numbers for Conlin are 44 favorable/30 unfavorable.

However, a few stumbles by Grassley could make this race highly competitive in a hurry. At the very least Conlin is going to make it a lot closer than any other Democrat has against Grassley in the last 25 years.

I expect Conlin to have little trouble winning the Democratic primary on June 8. Not only is she the best-known candidate, she out-raised Grassley in the first quarter and had about $1 million cash on hand as of March 31. According to FEC reports, Krause had $352 and Fiegen had $582 on hand at the end of the first quarter.

UPDATE: Rasmussen’s numbers on the governor’s race continue to point to a tough road ahead for Governor Chet Culver. He trails former Governor Terry Branstad 53 percent to 38 percent, little changed from Branstad’s 52-36 lead in Rasmussen’s March poll. Bob Vander Plaats leads Culver 45-41 in the new poll, up from a 42-40 lead in the March poll. Culver is barely ahead of Rod Roberts in the new poll, 43-41, little changed from the 40-38 lead Culver had against Roberts in the previous poll.

It’s not encouraging for an incumbent to be stuck around 40 percent against all challengers. Culver needs to bring up his own numbers and get out there to tell voters about his administration’s successes. For a preview of the case Culver will make with Iowa voters, watch his appearance on Chuck Todd’s MSNBC program last week.

Assuming Branstad will be the Republican nominee, Culver’s campaign will have to take him on aggressively. The race is bound to tighten up, but as long as Branstad is polling above 50 percent the odds are against Culver. Perhaps the governor can needle Branstad and provoke the same kind of response Vander Plaats got during the second Republican debate.

This diary has the baselines for the Nevada Senate race this time. Reid is currently unpopular because the Senate is unpopular and Reid is the Senate Majority Leader. Also, the economy in Nevada is bad after the foreclosure crisis and the decrease in tourists so Nevadans will be blaming the incumbent. About 20 candidates are running against Reid in the Republican primary. Since the primary does not occur until June 8th, I do not know who the Republican nominee will be. Most polls suggest Sue Lowden (R), a former State Senator from  Clark County will be the nominee. Recently, she damaged her chances by talking about bartering healthcare for chickens. Still, a recent poll showed her with a lead of 17 points in the primary. Another recent poll showed her lead by 10 points drop to 4. She has not even faced Reid’s 25 million dollars in a state where 1 million is enough to run a credible campaign. This race should turn around faster as soon as every voter knows about Lowden’s chicken comment and anything else Reid can find. Lowden benefits however from the fact that Clark County will not see a high African American turnout or Hispanic turnout (which definitely will change if the immigration bill gets the Hispanic community active.)

A bit about Reid’s past elections: in 2004, he won 61%-35% against Richard Ziser, a real estate investor from Las Vegas. Reid even won the majority of voters outside of Clark County (Las Vegas.) Being a Mormon may have helped in rural areas but now that the rural areas are prime teabagger territory, Reid may face very large Republicans margins there. In 1998, it was not as easy. John Ensign (R), the now disgraced Republican Junior Senator of Nevada ran against Harry Reid. Ensign lost by only 100 votes while losing Clark County by nine but barely winning Washoe County (Reno).

About the baselines: the baselines show the candidates’ percentages for each county if the race were a tie. I found them by adding percentages from Reid’s 2004 Senatorial election and the 2008 presidential election by county. Then I divided the result by two, giving me the baselines. I am sorry that the baselines are not in a straight line. After some links, you will see them.

Link for 2004 Senatorial election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org…

Link for 2008 Presidential election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org…

County Name Reid Republican Other

Carson City  45% 54% 1%

Churchill   29% 70% 1%

Clark   54% 45% 1%

Douglas  35% 64% 1%

Elko   27% 72% 1%

Esmerelda 23% 76% 1%

Eureka 21% 78% 1%

Humboldt 34% 65% 1%

Lander 29% 70% 1%

Lincoln 24% 75% 1%

Lyon 35% 64% 1%

Mineral 52% 47% 1%

Nye 41% 58% 1%

Pershing 37% 62% 1%

Storey 42% 57% 1%

Washoe 49% 50% 1%

White Pine 38% 61% 1%

For those of us who like visual aides like myself, here is a map:

Dark Red: Republican 70%+

Red: Republican 60%-69%

Light Red: Republican 50%-59%

Light Blue: Reid 50%-54%

The baselines do not show too many surprises for me. It shows Reid winning Clark County in the high single digits which he needs to do to win. Also, the only other county he wins is Mineral County which McCain won by six points in 2008. Reid also loses Washoe County by one point which makes sense because Washoe County recently votes in line with the candidates’ statewide percentages. A difference with the baselines is that I expect Reid to win Washoe County by a few hundred votes if the race ties because Washoe County is trending Democratic quickly.

Just in case you were wondering, I will do Florida’s Gubernatorial race next. Do you have any suggestions for statewide races after that?

Thanks for allowing me the opportunity to speak to your community.  

I’m traveling all across the state getting to know Floridians and telling them about my story.  I can’t talk to everyone personally, though, and since I’m running for U.S. Senate Americans outside of Florida may be interested in who I am as well, since the important work of the U.S. Senate affects all Americans.  

Our campaign produced this video to help introduce people to me, my background and where I come from.  

http://www.kendrickmeek.com/page/s/video

We know this is a competitive election, but we have a real chance to bring progressive change to Florida and Washington, D.C. and we need your help getting the word out.  

You’ve heard a lot about my opponents and you’ll hear a lot more about them as they continue to fight a divisive primary over ideology and partisanship.  I’d rather spend my time working hard and fighting to bring jobs to Florida, help our economy recover and continue to pursue the progressive platform of the Democratic Party.

P.S. Not on our mobile list yet? Make sure to sign up today by texting JOIN to 35736. Text messages are a great way to stay updated – no matter where you are – with everything happening on the campaign!

Kendrick

Originally posted at kendrickmeek.com

Iowa Democrat Roxanne Conlin gave her U.S. Senate campaign $250,000 during the first quarter of 2010 and raised nearly $630,000 from other donors.

From this morning’s press release:

Conlin Campaign Raises More than all of Grassley’s Past Challengers Combined

Has $1 Million in the Bank

Banked $879,615 in First Quarter with NO PAC or WASHINGTON LOBBYIST MONEY

Des Moines – Roxanne Conlin’s grassroots campaign for the US Senate has more than $1 million in the bank.  Iowans made up 81 percent of the campaign’s contributors and she has not accepted one penny from Washington lobbyists or PACs.

“I’m humbled by the outpouring of support for our campaign,” said Conlin. “Our grassroots effort has reached 93 counties and we will reach the remaining six this weekend.  Iowans keep telling me, Chuck Grassley is not the same man they sent to Washington decades ago.  We need a fighter who will stand up for Main Street and not bail out Wall Street.”

FACTS:

No PAC or Washington lobbyist funds.

81 percent of donors are Iowans.

78 percent of contributions are $100 or less.

Breakdown:

Campaign to date raised:                                    $1,483,191

First Quarter 2010 raised:                                   $629,615

Candidate contribution:                                      $250,000

First Quarter PAC Money:                                  $0

First Quarter Federal Lobbyist Money:               $0

First Quarter 2010 total:                                      $879,615

Cash on hand:                                                      $1,000,455

Those are impressive numbers for a challenger, especially since Grassley is not considered one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents. Grassley’s last Democratic opponent, Art Small, only raised about $136,000 during the whole 2004 campaign, and about $70,000 of that total came from the candidate himself.

I haven’t seen Grassley’s latest fundraising numbers yet. He raised about $810,000 during the fourth quarter of last year and began 2010 with about $5 million on hand. While Grassley will surely have a big cash-on-hand edge over Conlin, she will have the resources to run a statewide campaign.

I haven’t seen first-quarter numbers for the other Democratic candidates, Bob Krause and Tom Fiegen, but at year-end Fiegen had about $400 on hand, and Krause had about $3,500.

At Iowa Independent, Jason Hancock covered a recent dustup among the Democratic candidates over debates before the June 8 primary. I hope we will see some debates in addition to candidate forums. I plan to vote for Conlin, whose work I have long admired and who is best positioned to make the race competitive. Not only has she raised money, she will have a strong volunteer base. Just in my own precinct I know several Democrats who are not inclined to volunteer for Governor Chet Culver but will knock on doors or make phone calls for Conlin. By next Monday she will have held campaign events in all 99 Iowa counties.

I respect the Democrats who prefer Krause or Fiegen, and I understand why some people were annoyed by Iowa Democratic Party chair Michael Kiernan’s apparent favoritism last year. Competitive primaries are often healthy for a party, and I particularly appreciate that Krause has kept his message focused on his good ideas and Grassley’s flaws as a public servant. I hope the final eight weeks of the primary campaign will not become too divisive.

UPDATE: Grassley raised $613,577 in the first quarter and has about $5.3 million cash on hand. I am surprised that Conlin was able to out-raise the incumbent for the quarter even if you don’t count her own large contribution to the campaign.